Plan
The United States Federal Government should offer a substantial increase in the democracy assistance portions of Expanded- International Military Education and Training programs to Egypt.
Transition Advantage 1AC

Military perceived as strong-arming the public – ensures distrust now
Daniel Brumberg is a special adviser for the U.S. Institute of Peace's Muslim World Initiative, where he focuses on democratization and political reform in the Middle East and wider Islamic world July 13,2011 The Atlantic “The Path to Democracy in Egypt” http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/07/the-path-to-democracy-in-egypt/241712/1/
Much like the frustrated drivers at that intersection
AND
these existing forces a share of electoral power.

This ensures Al Qaeda takeover – US key to prevent
Kenneth M. Pollack is director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution Feb 9, 2011 Wall Street Journal “Could al Qaeda Hijack Egypt's Revolution?” google
The uprising in Egypt is far from over
AND
democracy from being hijacked by something much worse.
Maintaining a peaceful transition key to discredit them
Dr Sayed Khatab is a Senior Research Fellow at the School of Political and Social Inquiry and Global Terrorism Research Centre, Monash University, Australia. He is a Co-Editor of the peer referred International Journal of Humanity & Islam Presented to The 24th Annual Conference of the International Association for Conflict Management July 3-6, 2011, Istanbul, Turkey “Egyptian Revolution and its Impact on the Stability in the Middle East”
The Revolution in Egypt put radicalism and al
AND
change i.e. violent Jihad.16
Unstable transition wrecks the Egyptian economy
Egypt News 12 July 2011 “Continued strikes threaten Egypt” http://news.egypt.com/english/permalink/20376.html
Continued strikes in Cairo's Tahrir Square and other
AND
consequently many of Egypt s other economic sectors.

Global economy is fragile- new instability in Egypt would collapse it
Michael Schuman writes about Asia and global economic issues as a correspondent for TIME February 2, 2011 Time Magazine Does the turmoil in Egypt threaten the global recovery?" http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/02/02/does-the-turmoil-in-egypt-threaten-the-global-recovery/#ixzz1TT6k4O6d
At first glance, the upheaval on the
AND
prove to be just such an unwelcome surprise.

Global economic crisis causes war-strong statistical support
Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of
AND
Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-214
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline
AND
to an increase in the use of force.  

Multiple nuclear wars
Michael Panzner (Faculty Member at the New
AND
from Economic Collapse, p. 137-138
Rising angst will also wreak havoc with links
AND
as the beginnings of a new world war.

US civil military aid is key to the transition- have to ensure future generals are accustomed to democratic norms
William Fisher managed economic development programs for the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development in the Middle East Aug 12th, 2011 The Public Record “Egypt: The Education Of The Generals” http://pubrecord.org/world/9614/egypt-education-generals/
While the leaders of Egypt’s revolution argue with
AND
the toughest short-term problem Egypt faces.

Expanding E-IMET key to advancing CMR
Scott A. Smitson Department of Political Science, Indiana University Bloomington Paper Prepared for Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis Mini-Conference, Spring 2008 “BUILDING ARMIES FOR THE PEOPLE, NOT AGAINST THE PEOPLE: MILITARY INSTITUTION BUILDING IN DEVELOPING AND POSTCONFLICT STATES” http://www.indiana.edu/~workshop/seminars/papers/smitson_mcpaper08.pdf
Without a doubt, the Special Forces,
AND
, to receive civil-military affairs training.

Stable transition key to counter Iranian regional expansion - military aid key to solve
David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute he served as Levant country director, the Pentagon’s top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense July 25th 2011 “Egypt’s Enduring ChallengesPolicy Recommendations” http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=52459&pageid=&pagename=
For the past thirty years, Washington has
AND
exceeds the $250 million appropriated last year.
Ensures miscalculation that causes regional nuclear escalation
Alon Ben-Meir is professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU Feb 06, 2007 UPI “Ending Iranian Defiance” http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Ending_Iranian_Defiance_999.html
That Iran stands today able to challenge or
AND
severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program.
This is most likely – Asymmetric security relations and lack of deterrent framework
James A. Russell (managing editor of Strategic Insights, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, From 1988-2001 held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affairs, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense) Spring 2009 “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf
The basis of the argument that escalation is
AND
of pre-emptive attack and conflict escalation.

Middle East Regional Heg Advantage 1AC

US credibility in the Middle East is waning- comparatively the most important region
Amitai Etzioni professor of international relations at George Washington University March-April 2011 Military Review “The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility” http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf
As I will show shortly, in recent
AND
, they question U.S. credibility.

IMET key to US Middle East presence- prevents prolif
Brian Burton, Bacevich fellow at the Center for a New American Security, Washington 28 March 2011 “Refocus Mideast Presence” Defense News http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=6072558&c=FEA&s=COM
Still, the key U.S.
AND
the mostly peaceful unraveling of the Mubarak regime.

Prolif makes miscalculation likely. Cold War deterrence model is not applicable
Cimbala 08 – Professor of Political Science @ Pennsylvania State University - Brandywine [Stephen J. Cimbala, “Anticipatory Attacks: Nuclear Crisis Stability in Future Asia,” Comparative Strategy, Volume 27, Issue 2 March 2008, pages 113 – 132Informaworld]
The spread of nuclear weapons in Asia presents
AND
the avoidance of war outside of Europe.19
Egypt key to US Middle East power projection
Steven Cook Senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the council on foreign relations and an expert on Arab and Turkish politics as well as U.S.-Middle East policy August 2009 “Political Instability in Egypt” Council on Foreign Relations CONTINGENCY P LANN ING MEMORANDUM NO. 4
Egypt is a difficult yet critical U.
AND
seeks to achieve its goals in the region.
That’s key to prevent regional conflicts from escalating- Iran proliferates and multiple other hotpots would escalate
Robert Kagan is a contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution.  JAN 24, 2011, VOL. 16, NO. 18  The Weekly Standard “The Price of Power” http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533696.html?nopager=1
Today the international situation is also one of
AND
table and the table will not fall over.
Iran Prolif is the most likely scenario for global nuclear war
Kam 2007 (Ephraim Kam, A Nuclear Iran, Deputy Head, Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, http://www.tau.ac.il/jcss/memoranda/memo88.pdf)
The serious consequences for Israel of Iran's possession
AND
of reducing   the risk do not yet exist.

Plan
Plan the United States federal government should substantially increase its rule of law assistance for Libya through promoting a social understanding of law.
The Rule of Law

The rule of law is vital to prevent conflict escalation that results in nuclear war.  
Charles S. Rhyne 5/1/1958 (J.D, U.N. High Commissioner on Refugees, President of the American Bar Association) Law Day Speech for Voice of America delivered on the first Law Day http://www.abanet.org/publiced/lawday/rhyne58.html
Law and courts exist to protect every citizen ….can be performed. 

Status quo, top-down, approaches to rule of law aid fail and create hostility toward democracy assistance. Only by reforming our methodology can there be any hope for a strong rule of law in Libya.
David M. Mednicoff 2005 September "Rule of Law Series: LEGALISM SANS FRONTIÈRES? U.S. Rule-of-Law Aid in the Arab World" (professor in the Department of Legal Studies and the Center of Public Policy and Administration at the University of Massachusetts–Amherst) <http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/CP61.Mednicoff.FINAL.pdf>
The bad feelings that Arabs …Asian context are very relevant for the Middle East as well.34

That spills over. U.S. action in Libya creates the model for future intervention. U.S. key
Shadi Hamid 2011 Aug. 26th (director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution) <http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/26/libya-may-be-in-americas-vital-interest-after-all/>
Libya is perhaps the first of such ... Not yet, at least.

Powers do not fight because of random knee-jerk reactions to specific policy prescriptions. They fight because of complex, growing hostilities. The rule of law should be treated as conflict suppressant and their disadvantage should be treated as historically inaccurate.
Lambakis, 2001 (Steven Lambakis, senior defense analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy and the author of On the Edge of Earth: The Future of American Space Power, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, Policy Review, “Space Weapons: Refuting the Critics” February 1, google)
The case against deploying weapons in space rests on a number of assumptions, …decisions that might lead to war or escalation with care, not dispatch.

Rules maximize utility and provide stability where Act utilitarianism breeds conflict, confusion, and an abandonment of ethics.
William P. Baumgarth 1978 (Department Of Political Science), Fordham University "Hayek And Political Order: The Rule Of Law" <http://mises.org/journals/jls/2_1/2_1_2.pdf>
Summing it up, general … liberty seem closely intertwined.

Foreseeable consequences are not the same as actual consequences; any selected for a short debate are an unrepresentative subset.
James Lenman, (Univeristy of Glasglow and the United Kingdom Arts and Humanities Research Board), 2000 Consequentialism and cluelessness, Philosophy and Public affairs, 29
We can now see how Kagan seriously understates the objection. … are so often a drop in the ocean of its actual consequences.

As such, we should adhere to explicit, tested principles to better achieve utilitarian ends.
Larry Alexander University of Chicago, Ethics, 1985 P.317
In a world as complex as ours…, these rules will exclude all considerations regarding whether the Good will be achieved (Kennedy 1973, p. 35). 

This promulgation and universalization of rules is vital to overcoming act-consequentialist dilemma of agency  
Larry Alexander University of Chicago Ethics 1985 P.318
Act consequentialism requires a moral agent …-then direct pursuit  of the Good will be self-defeating.

Democracy
Democracy is an essential prerequisite to liberty, value to life, and effective policy making.
Amartya Sen 1999 "Democracy as a Universal Value" (Professor of Economics and Philosophy at Harvard University, PhD Cambridge, Nobel Laureate, Time Magazine’s 100 most influential persons in the world, senior fellow at the Harvard Society of Fellows, distinguished fellow of All Souls College, Oxford and a Fellow of Trinity College, and Cambridge) <http://terpconnect.umd.edu/~dcrocker/Courses/Docs/Sen-Two%20Pieces%20on%20Democracy.pdf>
Viewed in this light, the merits of democracy …The claims of democracy as a universal value have to take note of this diversity of considerations.
Democracy as the standard form of government breeds peace in the international arena.
Diamond 1995 (Larry- Senior Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Prof. or Political Science Stanford) Promoting Democracy in the 1990s, 1995)
This hardly exhausts the lists of threats to our security and well-being … international security and prosperity can be built.

The rule of law is crucial to democracy.
Larry Diamond and Leonardo Morlino 2004 October (Morlino- professor of political science at
the University of Florence Journal of Democracy Volume 15, Number 4) "The Quality of Democracy" <http://as17.as.uky.edu/academics/departments_programs/PoliticalScience/PoliticalScience/FacultyResources/Faculty/WonbinCho/Documents/15.4diamond_2004.pdf>
The rule of law is the base upon which … so that voters can remove officials who block reform.
The democratic peace rule justifies a rule of law corollary – we link turn their democracy turns as well.
Kupchan 98 (“Illiberal Illusions: Restoring Democracy’s Good Name,” By Charles Kupchan, May/June 1998; Foreign Affairs, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/54023/charles-kupchan/illiberal-illusions-restoring-democracys-good-name; Dr. Kupchan is a professor at the Georgetown School of Foreign Service; he is currently a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.)
Fareed Zakaria warns that the rise of "illiberal democracies… and emphasize reviving constitutionalism and the rule of law.

Their disads have a probability ceiling of 2%. Adherence to democracy and the rule of law achieves the most favorable outcome.
Cowen ‘4 Tyler, Dept of Economics at George Mason University, "The Epistemic Problem Does Not Refute Consequentialism," http://www.gmu.edu/centers/publicchoice/faculty%20pages/Tyler/Epistemic2.pdfp. 14-15)
The epistemic critique still implies some very strong cautions. … in contrast, the case for “big event consequentialism” is stronger. 

R2P

Mass atrocities risk extinction. Only through acknowledgment of an international responsibility can democracy and the liberal international order survive. Gender modified*
Kenneth J. Campbell, assistant professor of political science and international relations at the University of Delaware, 2001, Genocide and the Global Village, p. 15-16
Regardless of where or on how small a scale it begins, …on the fundamental integrity of the prevailing international order.

The “responsibility to protect” rule justifies the plan.
Ban Ki-Moon 2011 (June 7th, Secretary General of the United Nations) "The role of regional and sub-regional arrangements in implementing the responsibility to protect Report of the Secretary-General" <http://responsibilitytoprotect.org/RtoP%20Info%20Note%20and%20Programme%20-%20SG%20Report%20-%206%20July%202011.pdf>
The danger of mass atrocity crimes, … bridge between the local and the global.
Independently, Libya will be the test that determines the fate of international genocide prevention efforts.
 Salman Shaikh 2011 (Director of Brookings Doha Center, Feb. 26) "Libya's Test of the New International Order" <http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0226_libya_shaikh.aspx>
The current dangerous situation in Libya … "when I do, everything will burn."

And, the plan is key to build credibility for international action.
International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty 2001 December "The Responsibility To Protect" <http://responsibilitytoprotect.org/ICISS%20Report.pdf>
3.3 But conflict prevention is not merely a national or local affair. The failure of prevention can have wide international consequences and costs. Moreover, …But even where they have not succeeded in preventing conflict or catastrophe, they are a necessary precondition for responding effectively to it.

Independently, US leadership on rule of law promotes international legitimacy to address terrorism, proliferation, AIDS, transnational crime and human trafficking.
Robinson 2005 (Mary Robinson, director of Realizing Rights: The Ethical Globalization Initiative, former president of Ireland and former United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, “Renewing the Commitment to the Rule of Law and Human Rightsin the United States,” Global Governance 11, 2005, 1–8, EBSCO)
T he recent 100th anniversary of the birth of Ralph Johnson Bunche… planet with greater awareness of our common future.

Retaliation following even an unsuccessful nuclear terrorist attack risks escalatory nuclear war.
Easterbrook 01 Greg, The new republic, November 1, http://www.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0111/01/gal.00.html accessed 7/10/03
GREENFIELD: Now, finally, Mr. Easterbrook, speaking of ghastly, … rained down on every conceivable military target in a dozen Muslim countries.

Managing crime is vital to prevent backsliding.
Thomas Carothers 2006 (vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) “Promoting the Rule of Law Abroad: In Search of Knowledge” <http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=17714&prog=zgp&proj=zdrl>
Shoring up the rule of law also helps temper two severe problems…But hardly anyone these days will admit to being against the idea of law.

Solvency
Broad based public support is key to overcoming status quo obstacles which make rule-of-law aid backire.
David M. Mednicoff 2005 September "Rule of Law Series: LEGALISM SANS FRONTIÈRES? U.S. Rule-of-Law Aid in the Arab World" (professor in the Department of Legal Studies and the Center of Public Policy and Administration at the University of Massachusetts–Amherst) <http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/CP61.Mednicoff.FINAL.pdf>
Of course, current Arab governments may … political control.

Strong rule of law will be vital to a stable transition.
David Tolbert 2011 (Aug. 25, president of the International Center for Transitional Justice) "Make justice a foundation of the new Libya" <http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/25/how-to-make-justice-a-foundation-of-the-new-libya/>
Looking to experiences spanning tectonic changes from Berlin of 1989 to Cairo of the present, … in today’s Libya a single case is on the mind of all who speak of justice.
Rule of law development is a vital component of civilian protection under R2P.
GCR2P 2009 August (Global Center for the Responsibility to Protect) "Implementing the Responsibility to Protect The 2009 General Assembly Debate: An Assessment" <http://globalr2p.org/media/pdf/GCR2P_General_Assembly_Debate_Assessment.pdf>
Colombia’s statement was also revealing … in fulfilling obligations to confront transnational crime.
Success in Libya will be the lynchpin that determines the future of the Arab Spring and American primacy.
Marco Puccia 2011 March, 29 "Global Analysis: American Leadership in Libya and Across the Middle East" (Department of Commerce’s Economic Development Administration, assisted in building web-based platforms for governments to track foreign assistance at Development Gateway, Recipient of American University's Annette Langdon Award for Social Justice in honor of his work advancing innovative approaches to global development) <http://www.marcopuccia.com/2011/03/global-analysis-american-leadership-in-libya-and-across-the-middle-east/>
As revolutionary movements steamroll across the … It is certainly not a time to be rash.  
The plan is mild compared to status quo engagement through NATO.
Patrick J. McDonnell and Paul Richter 8/31/11 "NATO keeps bombing pro-Kadafi forces in Libya" <http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-libya-nato-20110901,0,6089174.story>
With Moammar Kadafi's forces on the run, … Kadafi without the Western alliance's control of the skies.
Obama has already pledged democracy assistance to Libya.
Donovan Slack 2011 (August 23) "Obama vows aid, warns against reprisals" <http://articles.boston.com/2011-08-23/news/29919390_1_president-obama-rebels-move-rebel-advances>
President Obama said yesterday … led by the rebels’ Transitional National Authority, and that he would seek United Nations backing for efforts to build a democratic government.
Assistance now.
VOA News 11 “Humanitarian Aid to Libya” 04-06-2011 http://www.voanews.com/policy/editorials/Humanitarian-Aid-to-Libya--119349894.html VOA news
The United States is pursuing a three-track policy … while the U.S. supports the efforts of the Libyan people to achieve political reform.

Plan

Plan the United States federal government should substantially increase its rule of law assistance for Libya through promoting a social understanding of law.

The Rule of Law

The rule of law is vital to prevent conflict escalation that results in nuclear war.  

Charles S. Rhyne 5/1/1958 (J.D, U.N. High Commissioner on Refugees, President of the American Bar Association) Law Day Speech for Voice of America delivered on the first Law Day http://www.abanet.org/publiced/lawday/rhyne58.html

Law and courts exist to protect every citizen of the United States… We believe that no greater challenge exists for any profession and that no greater service to mankind can be performed.

Status quo, top-down, approaches to rule of law aid fail and create hostility toward democracy assistance. Only by reforming our methodology can there be any hope for a strong rule of law in Libya.

David M. Mednicoff 2005 September "Rule of Law Series: LEGALISM SANS FRONTIÈRES? U.S. Rule-of-Law Aid in the Arab World" (professor in the Department of Legal Studies and the Center of Public Policy and Administration at the University of Massachusetts–Amherst) <http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/CP61.Mednicoff.FINAL.pdf>

The bad feelings that Arabs retain for the experience of Western imposition of laws …The kinds of legal empowerment approaches that Stephen Golub has advocated for the Asian context are very relevant for the Middle East as well.34

That spills over. U.S. action in Libya creates the model for future intervention. U.S. key

Shadi Hamid 2011 Aug. 26th (director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution) <http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/26/libya-may-be-in-americas-vital-interest-after-all/>

Libya is perhaps the first of such “good” interventions. …In Libya, the opposite may very well be true. The Libya intervention may not have much to do with our “vital” interests. Not yet, at least.

Powers do not fight because of random knee-jerk reactions to specific policy prescriptions. They fight because of complex, growing hostilities. The rule of law should be treated as conflict suppressant and their disadvantage should be treated as historically inaccurate.

Lambakis, 2001 (Steven Lambakis, senior defense analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy and the author of On the Edge of Earth: The Future of American Space Power, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, Policy Review, “Space Weapons: Refuting the Critics” February 1, google)

The case against deploying weapons in space rests on a number of assumptions, often unstated. … decisions that might lead to war or escalation with care, not dispatch.

Rules maximize utility and provide stability where Act utilitarianism breeds conflict, confusion, and an abandonment of ethics.

William P. Baumgarth 1978 (Department Of Political Science), Fordham University "Hayek And Political Order: The Rule Of Law" <http://mises.org/journals/jls/2_1/2_1_2.pdf>

Summing it up, general rules are necessary for important considerations of social utility:…social order. The fate of general norms and of individual liberty seem closely intertwined.

Foreseeable consequences are not the same as actual consequences; any selected for a short debate are an unrepresentative subset.

James Lenman, (Univeristy of Glasglow and the United Kingdom Arts and Humanities Research Board), 2000 Consequentialism and cluelessness, Philosophy and Public affairs, 29

We can now see how Kagan seriously understates the objection. …the foreseeable consequences of an action are so often a drop in the ocean of its actual consequences.

As such, we should adhere to explicit, tested principles to better achieve utilitarian ends.

Larry Alexander University of Chicago, Ethics, 1985 P.317

In a world as complex as ours, the direct application of …, these rules will exclude all considerations regarding whether the Good will be achieved (Kennedy 1973, p. 35).

This promulgation and universalization of rules is vital to overcoming act-consequentialist dilemma of agency  

Larry Alexander University of Chicago Ethics 1985 P.318

Act consequentialism requires a moral agent to attach no more importance …-then direct pursuit  of the Good will be self-defeating.

Democracy

Democracy is an essential prerequisite to liberty, value to life, and effective policy making.

Amartya Sen 1999 "Democracy as a Universal Value" (Professor of Economics and Philosophy at Harvard University, PhD Cambridge, Nobel Laureate, Time Magazine’s 100 most influential persons in the world, senior fellow at the Harvard Society of Fellows, distinguished fellow of All Souls College, Oxford and a Fellow of Trinity College, and Cambridge) <http://terpconnect.umd.edu/~dcrocker/Courses/Docs/Sen-Two%20Pieces%20on%20Democracy.pdf>

Viewed in this light, the merits of democracy and its claim as a universal value can be related to certain distinct virtues that go with its unfettered practice. … The claims of democracy as a universal value have to take note of this diversity of considerations.

Structural violence accelerates and makes the impact of your disad inevitable.  It is only because of these forms of violence that countries end up in mass conflict in the first place.  The aff engages in a real form of “crisis prevention” because it acknowledges and solves the root causes of violence

By Laurie Nathan “The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse: The structural cause of violence in Africa”

Track Two Vol.10 No.2 August 2001 (CCR, Cape Town)  http://webworld.unesco.org/water/wwap/pccp/cd/pdf/educational_tools/course_modules/reference_documents/conflict/thefourhorsemen.pdf

It is necessary to focus more on the structural causes of violence …the momentum towards protracted warfare is irreversible.

Democracy as the standard form of government breeds peace in the international arena and moderates environmental destruction.

Diamond 1995 (Larry- Senior Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Prof. or Political Science Stanford) Promoting Democracy in the 1990s, 1995)

This hardly exhausts the lists of threats to our security and well-being …which a new world order of international security and prosperity can be built.

The rule of law is crucial to democracy.

Larry Diamond and Leonardo Morlino 2004 October (Morlino- professor of political science at

the University of Florence Journal of Democracy Volume 15, Number 4) "The Quality of Democracy" <http://as17.as.uky.edu/academics/departments_programs/PoliticalScience/PoliticalScience/FacultyResources/Faculty/WonbinCho/Documents/15.4diamond_2004.pdf>

The rule of law is the base upon which every other dimension of democratic quality rests…. as well as efficient tools of democratic competition so that voters can remove officials who block reform.

The democratic peace rule justifies a rule of law corollary – we link turn their democracy turns as well.

Kupchan 98 (“Illiberal Illusions: Restoring Democracy’s Good Name,” By Charles Kupchan, May/June 1998; Foreign Affairs, ; Dr. Kupchan is a professor at the Georgetown School of Foreign Service; he is currently a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.)

Fareed Zakaria warns that the rise of "illiberal democracies" -- … boxes and emphasize reviving constitutionalism and the rule of law.

The only rational response to the epistemic problem is to use democracy and the rule of law as rules that govern behavior.

Cowen ‘4 Tyler, Dept of Economics at George Mason University, "The Epistemic Problem Does Not Refute Consequentialism," http://www.gmu.edu/centers/publicchoice/faculty%20pages/Tyler/Epistemic2.pdfp. 14-15)

The epistemic critique still implies some very strong cautions. … the case for “big event consequentialism” is stronger.

History is on our side. U.S. democracy assistance has a strong track record of success. U.S. aid in Libya is vital to a new wave of democracy.

Lawrence J. Haas 9/13, 2011 (senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the American Foreign Policy Council) "Should the United States be involved in efforts to bring democracy to post-Gadhafi Libya? YES" <http://sentinelsource.com/opinion/columnists/guest/should-the-united-states-be-involved-in-efforts-to-bring/article_88b67864-e7be-5666-9dca-145d96d9cc76.html>

The Arab Spring has brought hope to millions across the Middle East and North Africa, … helped the rebels topple Gadhafi and it can help bring democracy to Libya. For its own sake and the world’s, it surely should try.

The lack of liberal democracy is a far bigger internal link to your impacts.

Dafoe 11 (Allan Dafoe, Ph.D. candidate in the Travers Department of Political Science, Berkeley, “Statistical Critiques of the Democratic Peace: Caveat Emptor,” American Journal of Political Science, Volume 55, Issue 2, pages 247–262, April 2011)

The “democratic peace”—the inference that democracies rarely fight each other—… (for reviews of this literature, see George and Bennett 2004; Ray 1995).

Solvency

Broad based public support is key to overcoming status quo obstacles which make rule-of-law aid backire.

David M. Mednicoff 2005 September "Rule of Law Series: LEGALISM SANS FRONTIÈRES? U.S. Rule-of-Law Aid in the Arab World" (professor in the Department of Legal Studies and the Center of Public Policy and Administration at the University of Massachusetts–Amherst) <http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/CP61.Mednicoff.FINAL.pdf>

Of course, current Arab governments may be reluctant to endorse or facilitate rule-of-law projects that foster real political liberalization. Nonetheless, … of political support and, thereby, strengthening these autocrats’ political control.

Strong rule of law will be vital to a stable transition.

David Tolbert 2011 (Aug. 25, president of the International Center for Transitional Justice) "Make justice a foundation of the new Libya" <http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/25/how-to-make-justice-a-foundation-of-the-new-libya/>

Looking to experiences spanning … on the mind of all who speak of justice.

Success in Libya will be the lynchpin that determines the future of the Arab Spring and American primacy.

Marco Puccia 2011 March, 29 "Global Analysis: American Leadership in Libya and Across the Middle East" (Department of Commerce’s Economic Development Administration, assisted in building web-based platforms for governments to track foreign assistance at Development Gateway, Recipient of American University's Annette Langdon Award for Social Justice in honor of his work advancing innovative approaches to global development) <http://www.marcopuccia.com/2011/03/global-analysis-american-leadership-in-libya-and-across-the-middle-east/>

As revolutionary movements steamroll across the Middle East and North Africa, the United States cannot idly standby and hedge between liberalism and despotism. The US, as the largest and strongest global power long-representative …, and domestic as well as international consequences. It is certainly not a time to be rash. 

The plan is mild compared to status quo engagement through NATO.

Patrick J. McDonnell and Paul Richter 8/31/11 "NATO keeps bombing pro-Kadafi forces in Libya" <http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-libya-nato-20110901,0,6089174.story>

With Moammar Kadafi's forces on the run, … have routed Kadafi without the Western alliance's control of the skies.

Obama has already pledged democracy assistance to Libya.

Donovan Slack 2011 (August 23) "Obama vows aid, warns against reprisals" <http://articles.boston.com/2011-08-23/news/29919390_1_president-obama-rebels-move-rebel-advances>

President Obama said yesterday …. United Nations backing for efforts to build a democratic government.

Assistance now.

VOA News 11 “Humanitarian Aid to Libya” 04-06-2011 http://www.voanews.com/policy/editorials/Humanitarian-Aid-to-Libya--119349894.html VOA news

The United States is pursuing a three-track policy with regards to Libya:  first, delivering desperately needed humanitarian aid; second, … _{Libyan people to achieve political reform.}

ID Now to Tunisia makes it try or die for a new model.

AP 10/13/2011 “Obama says US has enormous stake in Tunisia,” <>

President Barack Obama pledged U.S. support for … committed more than $55 million in non-security assistance to Tunisia since January.

There is a strong presumption in favor of our rules that is impossible to overcome in the context of this debate. Gender paraphrased*

G. E. Moore 1903 "Principia Ethica" (Professor of Philosophy at the University of Cambridge, Order of Merit recipient) <http://fair-use.org/g-e-moore/principia-ethica/s.99>

Since, as I have tried to shew, it is impossible to establish … it will do so also, although we cannot see that it will.

The determent to the good through unwarranted exceptions will always outweigh effects of good exceptions.

Larry Alexander 1985 "Pursuing the Good-Indirectly" (Prof. University of Chicago School of Law) <http://www.jstor.org/stable/2380347?seq=2>

This argument assumes that A will necessarily have better consequences than -A because a better rule would command A and not -A. But … but it will not guarantee that the net result will be a favorable ratio of warranted to unwarranted exception making.

Reed32@missouristate.edu

Plan: The United States Federal Government should substantially increase its rule of law assistance for Libya through promoting a social understanding of law.

Stability

New instability in Libya is coming- they don’t have a blueprint- but they do have a chance

USA Today 10-21-2011 Clare Morgana Gillis, Jim Michaels and William M. Welch “Gadhafi era ends: What's next for Libya?” http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2011-10-20/libya-faces-uncertain-future-after-gadhafi-death/50847920/1

"I'm afraid the opposition . . . damned well," Serwer said.

Libyan collapse destabilizes the region and undermines stability in Iraq and Africa.
Pack, 3/18/2011 (Jason – researcher of Libya at Oxford University’s St. Antony’s College, Libya is too big to fail, Foreign Policy, p.
Today we face a familiar . . . big to be allowed to fail.

Iraq instability escalates to world war three.
Corsi 7 (Jerome, "War with Iran is imminent," Phd in Poly Sci @ Harvard, author, + staff reporter @ World Net Daily, 1-8,
If a broader war breaks  . . .World Wars I and II began.

The plan is key to prevent Middle East conflict and terrorism.

Eric Brahm (Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas) March 2005 "rule of law" http://www.beyondintractability.org/essay/rule_of_law/

Particularly since the end of the . . . and consequently economic development.[1]

Asymmetry ensures conflict spirals out of control – goes nuclear

James A. Russell (managing editor of Strategic Insights, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, From 1988-2001 held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affairs, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense) Spring 2009 “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf

Strategic stability in the . . .. substantial risk for the entire world.

Instability causes large scale missile proliferation

Mail and Guardian 10-26-2011 “Growing alarm over stockpiled weapons in Libya” http://mg.co.za/article/2011-10-26-growing-alarm-over-stockpiled-weapons-in-libya/

Ian Martin, head of the . . .guided and unguided aerial weapons.

Missile prolif causes broader WMD prolif

Dinshaw Mistry is Assistant Professor at the University of Cincinnati International Security 27.4 (2003) 119-149 “Beyond the MTCR Building a Comprehensive Regime to Contain Ballistic Missile Proliferation” Project Muse

1.       Ballistic missiles provide  . . . the WMD nonproliferation regime.

Miscalc.

Cimbala 08 – Professor of Political Science @ Pennsylvania State University - Brandywine [Stephen J. Cimbala, “Anticipatory Attacks: Nuclear Crisis Stability in Future Asia,” Comparative Strategy, Volume 27, Issue 2 March 2008, pages 113 – 132Informaworld]

The spread of nuclear weapons . . . of war outside of Europe.19

Extinction

Robock 09 – Professor of climatology @ Rutgers University [Alan Robock (Associate director of Rutger’s Center for Environmental Prediction. 30 year researcher in the area of climate change. Holds a doctorate in meteorology from MIT. Published over 150 peer-reviewed papers on climate change), “Nuclear winter” The Encyclopedia of Earth, January 6, 2009, Pg. http://www.eoearth.org/article/Nuclear_winter]

Nuclear winter is a term . . . of a nuclear environmental catastrophe.

Libyan instability spills over to African instability and failed states

Michael Ignatieff is the Carr Professor and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard 10-24-2011 Reuters “Libya’s revolution pushes democracy forward” http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/24/idUS413846800520111024

All across the Middle East, . . .Al Qaeda in the Magrheb.

Failed states cause great power wars – power vacuums and competing interests make intervention inevitable

Jakub Grygiel, John Hopkins IR professor, “Vacuum Wars: The Coming Competition Over Failed States,” American Interest, Jul/Aug 2009, http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=622

This prevailing view of failed . . . involvement of two or more powers.

African conflicts escalate to great power wars.

Glick, 12/12/2007 Caroline – senior Middle East fellow at the Center for Security Policy, Condi’s African holiday,http://www.carolineglick.com/e/2007/12/condis-african-holiday.php?pf=yes

The Horn of Africa is a dangerous . . . flows through all countries of the region.

Leadership

Independently, US leadership on rule of law promotes international legitimacy to address terrorism, proliferation, AIDS, transnational crime and human trafficking.

Robinson 2005 (Mary Robinson, director of Realizing Rights: The Ethical Globalization Initiative, former president of Ireland and former United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, “Renewing the Commitment to the Rule of Law and Human Rightsin the United States,” Global Governance 11, 2005, 1–8, EBSCO)

T he recent 100th anniversary of the birth of Ralph Johnson Bunche, serves as a timely reminder of the United States’ proud history of leadership and commitment to international law and institutions, and of how much that kind of leadership is needed today. There is an urgent need . . . awareness of our common future.

Retaliation following even an unsuccessful nuclear terrorist attack risks escalatory nuclear war.

Easterbrook 01 Greg, The new republic, November 1, http://www.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0111/01/gal.00.html accessed 7/10/03

GREENFIELD: Now, finally, Mr. . . . target in a dozen Muslim countries.

AIDS will spread globally causing human extinction*

Muchiri 2000 (Michael Kibaara- Staff Member at Ministry of Education in Nairobi, “Will Annan finally put out Africa’s fires?” Jakarta Post, March 6)

The executive director of UNAIDS, . . . race and maybe the human race.

Success in Libya will be the lynchpin that determines the future of the Arab Spring and American hegemony.

Marco Puccia 2011 March, 29 "Global Analysis: American Leadership in Libya and Across the Middle East" (Department of Commerce’s Economic Development Administration, assisted in building web-based platforms for governments to track foreign assistance at Development Gateway, Recipient of American University's Annette Langdon Award for Social Justice in honor of his work advancing innovative approaches to global development) <http://www.marcopuccia.com/2011/03/global-analysis-american-leadership-in-libya-and-across-the-middle-east/>

As revolutionary movements steamroll . . . not a time to be rash. 

Controls escalation of all conflicts – collapse causes global wars and protectionism

Yuhan Zhang (a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C.) and Lin Shi (Columbia University, independent consultant for the Eurasia Group and a consultant for the World Bank in Washington, D.C.) January 2011 “America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry” http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/

However, as the hegemony that . . . devoid of unrivalled US primacy.

Otherwise – status based great power conflict is inevitable – relative lead key to prevent global conflict

William C. Wohlforth (a professor of government at Dartmouth College) 2009 “Unipolarity, Status Competition, and Great Power War” Project Muse

Second, I question the dominant . . . in security and/or prosperity.

R2P

The plan is key to uphold the “responsibility to protect” doctrine.

Ban Ki-Moon 2011 (June 7^th, Secretary General of the United Nations) "The role of regional and sub-regional arrangements in implementing the responsibility to protect Report of the Secretary-General" <http://responsibilitytoprotect.org/RtoP%20Info%20Note%20and%20Programme%20-%20SG%20Report%20-%206%20July%202011.pdf>

The danger of mass atrocity . . . between the local and the global.

Independently, Libya will be the test that determines the fate of international genocide prevention efforts.

 Salman Shaikh 2011 (Director of Brookings Doha Center, Feb. 26) "Libya's Test of the New International Order" <http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0226_libya_shaikh.aspx>

The current dangerous situation . . . do, everything will burn."

And, the plan is key to build credibility for international action.

International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty 2001 December "The Responsibility To Protect" <http://responsibilitytoprotect.org/ICISS%20Report.pdf>

3.3 But conflict prevention is . . .  for responding effectively to it.

Mass atrocities risk extinction. Only through acknowledgment of an international responsibility can democracy and the liberal international order survive. Gender modified*

Kenneth J. Campbell, assistant professor of political science and international relations at the University of Delaware, 2001, Genocide and the Global Village, p. 15-16

Regardless of where or on . . . the prevailing international order.

Solvency

Status quo, top-down, approaches to rule of law aid fail and create hostility toward democracy assistance. Only by reforming our methodology can there be any hope for a strong rule of law in Libya.

David M. Mednicoff 2005 September "Rule of Law Series: LEGALISM SANS FRONTIÈRES? U.S. Rule-of-Law Aid in the Arab World" (professor in the Department of Legal Studies and the Center of Public Policy and Administration at the University of Massachusetts–Amherst) <http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/CP61.Mednicoff.FINAL.pdf>

The bad feelings that Arabs . . . the Middle East as well.34

History is on our side. U.S. democracy assistance has a strong track record of success. U.S. aid in Libya is vital to a new wave of democracy.

Lawrence J. Haas 9/13, 2011 (senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the American Foreign Policy Council) "Should the United States be involved in efforts to bring democracy to post-Gadhafi Libya? YES" <http://sentinelsource.com/opinion/columnists/guest/should-the-united-states-be-involved-in-efforts-to-bring/article_88b67864-e7be-5666-9dca-145d96d9cc76.html>

The Arab Spring has brought hope to millions across the Middle East and North Africa, but whether its ultimate outcome is a more democratic . . . world’s, it surely should try.

Strong rule of law will be vital to a stable transition.

David Tolbert 2011 (Aug. 25, president of the International Center for Transitional Justice) "Make justice a foundation of the new Libya" <http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/25/how-to-make-justice-a-foundation-of-the-new-libya/>

Looking to experiences spanning . . . all who speak of justice.

That spills over. U.S. action in Libya creates the model for future intervention. U.S. key

Shadi Hamid 2011 Aug. 26th (director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution) <http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/26/libya-may-be-in-americas-vital-interest-after-all/>

Libya is perhaps the first of . . .  Not yet, at least.

Broad based public support is key to overcoming status quo obstacles which make rule-of-law aid backire.

David M. Mednicoff 2005 September "Rule of Law Series: LEGALISM SANS FRONTIÈRES? U.S. Rule-of-Law Aid in the Arab World" (professor in the Department of Legal Studies and the Center of Public Policy and Administration at the University of Massachusetts–Amherst) <http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/CP61.Mednicoff.FINAL.pdf>

Of course, current Arab governments . . . these autocrats’ political control.