Contention 1 is transition
Assad’s collapse inevitable, but transition will be messy
Michael Doran and Salman Shaikh, Brookings Institution, “Getting Serious in Syria,” AMERICAN INTEREST, 8—2—11, http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1001
The Syrian status quo, whatever [...] genuine process of transition to begin.
Supporting opposition solves sectarian war
Mon Yacoubian, senior program officer, U.S. Institute of Peace, “Saving Syria from Civil War,” FOREIGN POLICY, Middle East Channel, 10—5—11, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/10/05/saving_syria_from_civil_war, accessed 11-10-11//dch
As Syria's uprising lurches toward its [...] directly or through proxies in Lebanon.
Syrian conflict causes turkey iran war—tensions are rising dangerously
Roy 11 (Olivier Roy is professor of social and political theory at the European University Institute in Florence. 8/24/11, “The crisis in Syria is leading the Middle East into uncharted territory” New Statesman) http://www.newstatesman.com/middle-east/2011/08/syria-iran-turkey-regime-assad
Syria is undoubtedly the country in [...] situation from spiralling out of control.
Turkey is on brink of military intervention—risks massive regional war
Jean Shaoul, “Turkey Preparing Military Intervention in Syria,” Mostly Water, 10—22—11, http://mostlywater.org/turkey_preparing_military_intervention_syria
Turkey is playing a major role [...] to supply anti-regime forces.
World War III
The American Dream 11 (6/28/11, “Could We Actually See A War Between Syria And Turkey?”) http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/could-we-actually-see-a-war-between-syria-and-turkey
In recent days, there have [...] the OK Corral of the Middle East
U.S. key to solve Turkey intervention
Badran 11 (Tony, research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 8/16/11, “Obama's Options in Damascus” Foreign Affairs) http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68129/tony-badran/obamas-options-in-damascus?page=show
The Syrian crisis has demonstrated a [...] role remains the United States' alone.
Contention 2 Iran
U.S. regional influence is waning – the plan is key to change the face of the U.S.-Arab relationship and increases credibility throughout the region
Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center, fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy. “The Struggle for Middle East Democracy,” Brookings Institute, 4/26/2011. http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2011/0426_middle_east_hamid.aspx?rssid=LatestFromBrookings&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BrookingsRSS%2Ftopfeeds%2FLatestFromBrookings+%28Brookings%3A+Latest+From+Brookings%29
It would be a mistake, [...] aspirations. This has not happened.
Syria is key test of U.S. cred in the Mideast—absent plan adversaries will test us, risks multiple aggression scenarios
Michael Doran, formerly of U.S. National Security Council and current fellow, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution, “The Nexus and the Olive Tree,” 8—22—11, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/22/the_nexus_and_the_olive_tree?page=full
Pressing though these questions may be [...] a different result in the future.
Lack of credible U.S. action is emboldening Iran to expand throughout the region – only perception of U.S. regional influence checks expansionism
Zuckerman, 10 (Mortimer, publisher and owner of the New York Daily News, 6/25/10, “3 Steps to Stop Iran From Getting a Nuclear Bomb” http://politics.usnews.com/opinion/mzuckerman/articles/2010/06/25/3-steps-to-stop-iran-from-getting-a-nuclear-bomb.html)
As far as the war we're [...] Gulf islands belonging to the UAE.
Iranian hegemony would mean an attack on Israel – US credibility in Syria key to check expansionism
Khalili 11 (Reza Kahlili is a pseudonym for an ex-CIA spy who is a fellow with EMPact America and the author of “A Time to Betray,” about his double life in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, 8/24/11, “KAHLILI: Luring Israel into war” The Washington Times) http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/aug/24/luring-israel-into-war/
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei [...] in Tehran from checkmating the world.
Iran will use nuclear terrorists to attack Israel
Davis 11 – Cam Davis, “ Nuclear Terrorism: Possible Sources and Gravity as a Threat to the United States,” OPPOSING VIEWPOINTS, 4-4-11. http://www.opposingviews.com/i/nuclear-terrorism-possible-sources-and-gravity-as-a-threat-to-the-united-states. LAP
Another country that may provide [...] many terrorist groups that it supports.
Terrorist attack would cause extinction
Dennis Ray Morgan, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yangin Campus, South Korea, “World on Fire: Two Scenarios of the Destruction of Human Civilization and Possible Extinction of the Human Race,” FUTURES v. 41, 2009, pp. 683-93, ScienceDirect.
In a remarkable website on nuclear [...] environment and fragile ecosphere as well.
Transition contains Iran and checks its nuclear program
James H. Anderson, Professor, Marshall European Center for Security Studies, and former director, Middle East Policy, Office of the Secretary of Defense, “After the Fall: What’s Next for Assad and Syria?” WORLD AFFAIRS, November/December 2011, 11—11, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/after-fall-what%E2%80%99s-next-assad-and-syria, accessed 11-10-11//dch
Iran stands to lose the most [...] external pressures hasten its inglorious end.
Contention 4 is Russia
Russia is trying to establish dominance in the region in the wake of Assad—a pro-Western opposition government shuts them out of the region
Taheri 11 (Amir, CNN columnist, author of many books on Middle East policy, 10/9/11, “Russia’s Syria game” New York Post) http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/russia_syria_game_voe96d5WkBego04e6l1NRP
A few weeks ago, a [...] if, Ukraine throws it out.
Syria key for Russian expansionism
Nazemroaya 06 (Mahdi, Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization, “Russian Base in Syria, a Symmetrical Strategic Move” Global Research) http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=2839
Russian military officials have consistently denied [...] part of a global chess game.
Russian expansion in the Middle East causes miscalc and great power wars
Laqueur 08 [Walter, co-founder and editor of the Journal of Contemporary History in London and the Washington Quarterly, “Russia and the Middle East”, Aug 17, http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/mesh/2008/08/russia_and_the_middle_east/]
Some have said that the Kremlin [...] open the door to serious miscalculations.
Russia would use nuclear weapons
LAMBERT AND MILLER 97 (Stephen and David, USAF Institute for National Security Studies, “Russia’s Crumbling Tactical Nuclear Weapons Complex: An Opportunity for Arms Control” April www.usafa.af.mil/inss/OCP/ocp12.pdf)
To compensate for Russia’s current conventional [...] judgment of a local military commander.
Supporting regime change in Syria creates a buffer zone and shuts Russia out of the Mideast
Semaan 11 (George, journalist, 9/12, “The Eye is on Syria and the Target is Turkey?” http://www.daralhayat.com/portalarticlendah/306674
The position of Russian President Dmitry [...] in Syria or commit another one?
Plan: The United States federal government should provide political training and support to democratic groups in Syria.
Contention 4 is solvency
The US should provide training and support for opposition groups—creates an orderly transition
Karlin and Tabler 11 (Mara E. Karlin was Levant Director at the Pentagon in 2006-7 and Special Assistant to the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy in 2007-9. Andrew J. Tabler is Next Generation Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and the author of the forthcoming book In the Lion's Den: An Eyewitness Account of Washington's Battle With Syria. 5/26/11, “Washington should plan for a post-Assad Syria” CNN) http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/05/26/washington-should-plan-for-a-post-assad-syria/
As the United States works to [...] United States' most problematic regional adversaries.
Aiding the opposition solves
Foreign Policy Initiative (FPI) and Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), “Towards a Post-Assad Syria: Options for the United States and Like-Minded Nations to Further Assist the Anti-Regime Syrian Opposition,” Discussion Paper Prepared for the Syrian Working Group, 11—8—11, http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/towards-a-post-assad-syria/, accessd 11-10-11//dch
Option (2): Provide Assistance [...] on this issue ought to change.
U.S. aid solves opposition
Gerecht and Dubowitz 11 (Marc, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and Mark, executive director of FDD, 9/1/11, “Obama, American liberator?” The Washington Post) http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/obama-american-liberator/2011/09/01/gIQA3e5HvJ_story.html
Nevertheless, President Obama used American [...] do the same for Barack Obama.
The opposition movement is united in the Syrian National Council
Aljazeera 11 (9/15/11, “Syrian opposition unites in new council”) http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/09/2011915141543350254.html
A group of Syrian activists have [...] the Islamic Conference, he said.
