UPlan Text
Plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase funding for democratic institution building in Tunisia.
CREDIBILITY ADVANTAGE
U.S. regional influence is waning – the plan is key to change the face of the U.S.-Arab relationship and increases credibility throughout the region
Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center, fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy. “The Struggle for Middle East Democracy,” Brookings Institute, 4/26/2011. http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2011/0426_middle_east_hamid.aspx?rssid=LatestFromBrookings&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BrookingsRSS%2Ftopfeeds%2FLatestFromBrookings+%28Brookings%3A+Latest+From+Brookings%29
It would be… has not happened.
This lack of credibility is emboldening Iran to expand throughout the region – only perception of U.S. regional influence checks expansionism
Zuckerman, 10 (Mortimer, publisher and owner of the New York Daily News, 6/25/10, “3 Steps to Stop Iran From Getting a Nuclear Bomb” http://politics.usnews.com/opinion/mzuckerman/articles/2010/06/25/3-steps-to-stop-iran-from-getting-a-nuclear-bomb.html)
As far as… to the UAE.
The rise of Iran creates a great power vacuum that sparks a Sino-Persian alliance
Ford 10 (Christopher, former United States Special Representative for Nuclear Nonproliferation, 1/14/10, “Perspectives Upon a Nuclear Iran” The Hudson Institute) http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=6698
Fundamentally, Iran would… a mid-term scenario.
That causes Saudi nuclearization and U.S.-China war
Luft (Exec. Dir., Institute for the Analysis of Global Security) 2/2/04 [Gal, “U.S., China are on Collision Course Over Oil,” Los Angeles Times, http://www.iags.org/la020204.htm]
Sixty-seven years ago… into total dependency.
Conflict with China will escalate to global nuclear war
Hunkovic 09 (Lee J, American Military University, “The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict: Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America”, http://www.lamp-method.org/eCommons/ Hunkovic.pdf)
A war between… in this study.
Saudi nuclearization triggers a cascade of proliferation and nuclear war in the Middle East
Bowman 08 (Bradley, Staff – U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, “Chain Reaction: Avoiding A Nuclear Arms Race In The Middle East”, 3-13, http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=110_cong_senate_committee_prints&docid=f:39674.pdf)
Of any Middle… decrease this likelihood.
ELECTIONS ADVANTAGE
Tunisian elections will fail in the status quo – delays put pressure on the transitional government and lead to authoritarian relapse
Marina Ottaway is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Transitional Failure in Egypt and Tunisia,” The National Interest, 8/10/2011. http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/transitional-failure-egypt-tunisia-5736
But the timetable… an authoritarian response.
Al Qaeda needs democracy to fail in Tunisia – support for American democracy promotion shuts out their access to the Arab Spring and prevents attacks on Israel
Associated Press. “Al Qaeda looks to co-opt Egypt, Tunisia unrest,” CBS News, 2/28/2011. http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/02/28/501364/main20037166.shtml
Al-Zawahri — whose al… the Islamic Maghreb."
The attack will be nuclear – Al Qaeda is seeking a bomb, and could build one if they obtain the material
Matthrew Bunn, Associate Professor, Public Policy, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, SECURING THE BOMB 2010, April 2010, p. v.
Several facts frame… difficult to stop.
Nuclear terrorism in Israel escalates to global nuclear war, ensures extinction via nuclear winter
Dennis Ray Morgan, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yangin Campus, South Korea, “World on Fire: Two Scenarios of the Destruction of Human Civilization and Possible Extinction of the Human Race,” FUTURES v. 41, 2009, pp. 683-93, ScienceDirect.
In a remarkable website… ecosphere as well.
Election assistance is the critical internal link – Tunisia’s demonstration effect means unrest spills over throughout the region
Christopher Walker is director of studies at Freedom House, and Vanessa Tucker is managing editor of Countries at the Crossroads. “Tunisia: The Arab Spring's Pivotal Democratic Example,” Freedom House, 8/11/2011. http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=694
Tunisia has already… and European Union.
The Jasmine Revolution is the make or break moment for Al Qaeda – democracy in Tunisia can obliterate the organization throughout the region
Paul Cruickshank, CNN Terrorism Analyst. “Analysis: Why Arab Spring could be al Qaeda’s fall,” CNN, 2/21/2011. http://articles.cnn.com/2011-02-21/world/arab.unrest.alqaeda.analysis_1_zawahiri-al-qaeda-qaeda-style?_s=PM:WORLD
When historians in… preaching,” Benotman said.
Al Qaeda’s access to Tunisia is at an all-time high – a fast transition to democracy is critical to shut out Al Qaeda’s arms trade
Frank Crimi, staff, editor of Frontpage Magazine. “Tunisia Falling,” Assyrian International News Agency, 7/12/2011. http://www.aina.org/news/20110712105121.htm
Unfortunately, all these… as a surprise.
The arms trade connects Al Qaeda with MS13 – that provides a critical support network for Al Qaeda to blow up the Panama Canal and smuggle terrorists into America
Leerburger, National Security Prof at American, 05
“Mara Salvatrucha: A Significant Homeland Security Threat,” The Journal of Counterterrorism & Homeland Security International, Lexis
The U.S.-based criminal… leap of faith.
U.S. retaliation to a terror attack risks a full-scale war with Russia
Martin Hellman, Professor, Stanford University, "Defusing the Nuclear Threat," Spring 2008, www.nuclearrisk.org/primer.php
Nuclear proliferation and… U.S. or Russia.
Cooperation between terrorists and MS13 is the greatest risk to close down the Panama Canal
Dannels-Ruff, Professor for the American Military University, 05
Security of the Panama CanalOne decade after U.S. departure, http://www.airpower.au.af.mil/apjinternational/apj-s/2010/2010-2/2010_2_05_dannelsruff_eng_wats.pdf
The threat of… threaten US interests. 33
A successful attack against the canal will collapse the global trade and undermine US naval superiority – destroys global stability
Dannels-Ruff, Professor for the American Military University, 05
Security of the Panama CanalOne decade after U.S. departure, http://www.airpower.au.af.mil/apjinternational/apj-s/2010/2010-2/2010_2_05_dannelsruff_eng_wats.pdf
The U.S. still… U.S. defense planning.”26
Trade collapse goes nuclear
Friedberg & Schoenfeld, 08 - Professor of politics and international relations @ Princeton University & Visiting scholar @ Witherspoon Institute [AARON FRIEDBERG and GABRIEL SCHOENFELD, “The Dangers of a Diminished America: In the 1930s, isolationism and protectionism spurred the rise of fascism.”, Wall Street Journal, “The Dangers of a Diminished America”, OCTOBER 21, 2008, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122455074012352571.html]
In such a… external adventures.
Naval superiority is key to deterrence – solves CBW prolif
Kugler and Trangedi, 01 (Richard Kugler, Professor at the Institute for National Strategic Studies, and Sam Trangedi, and Senior Military text taken from book titled “Globalization and Military Power” published December 2nd, 2001,)
Future directions in… doctrine for warfighting.
Bioweaons go global within 6 weeks – worse than nukes
Levy, 07 (6-8, Janet Ellen, The American Thinker, “The Threat of Bioweapons,” www.americanthinker.com/2007/06/the_threat_of_bioweapons.html)
Immediately following 9-11… developed within days.
Plan solves – institution building allows Tunisians to move naturally towards democracy and away from Al Qaeda
Robert Satloff, executive director of the Washington Institute. “How Washington can help Tunisia and other Arab revolutions,” Washington Post, 1/30/2011. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/28/AR2011012806124.html
One result is… campaign and election.
Failure of democracy in Tunisia risks a military coup – plan ensures Tunisia’s transition by filling institutional gaps and building relations
J. Scott Carpenter is a Keston family fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Help Tunisia First,” Foreign Policy, 2/24/2011. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/24/help_tunisia_first?page=0,0
The U.S. government… along this path.
Even if there is no coup, a delayed election puts the military in power
Steven A. Cook is the Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. “The calculations of Tunisia's military,” Foreign Policy, 1/20/2011. http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/01/20/the_calculations_of_tunisias_military
As Tunisia gropes…arena despite themselves.
That makes U.S. pressure inevitable – Washington intervenes to protect the new ruling elite
Francis Ghiles is a senior researcher at the Barcelona Centre for International Affairs. “Viewpoint: Military coup would harm Tunisia's interests,” BBC, 3/6/2011. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12623237
There is now… of the pie.
