Minnesota » Minn CE Crunkilton & Ehrlich Aff

Minn CE Crunkilton & Ehrlich Aff

Last modified by Administrator on 2012/10/17 15:49
#EntryDate
  • Minn CE Syria Aff

    • Tournament: UNI | Round: 1 | Opponent: | Judge:


    • Plan: The United States federal government should provide political training to democratic civil society groups in Syria.

      Advantage One: Proxy Wars

      FIRST, Iran-Saudi War
      Status quo policy only strengthens the Iranians, risks Saudi-Iran confrontation—need to support the opposition

      Robert Rabil and Walild Phraes, “Syria to Become Iranian Vassal or Saudi Ally,” AMERICAN THINKER, 5—31—11, http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/05/syria_to_become_iranian_vassal.html

      But, most ominously for the  [...] vassal state paying tribute to Tehran. 

      U.S. inaction leaves a void in Syria—increases domestic instability and risks a Saudi-Iran confrontation

      Matthew Mainen, Institute for Gulf Affairs, “Saudi’s Dangerous Role in Syria,” MAINEN MIDDLE EAST ANALYSIS, 7—25—11, http://mainen.blogspot.com/2011/07/saudis-dangerous-role-in-syria.html

      While Saudi Arabia’s involvement in suppressing  [...] S. influence in the region. 

      Saudi/Iranian proxy disputes risk escalation to a full-blown war

      Gregory Gause, University of Vermont, “Is Saudi Arabia Really Counter-Revolutionary,” FOREIGN POLICY, 8—9—11, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/09/is_saudi_arabia_really_counter_revolutionary

      Would the monarchs of the Holy  [...] like al Qaeda and its sympathizers. 

      Syria risks becoming the OK Corral of the Middle East

      Frank Hardy, “Will Cries for Democracy Shift to Sectarian Violence in Syria?” SUITE 101, 3—27—11, http://www.suite101.com/content/will-cries-for-democracy-shift-to-sectarian-violence-in-syria-a362174

      The latest Arab uprising, on  [...] the root of her greatest destruction.

      MIDEAST WAR RISKS A GLOBAL NUCLEAR CONFLICT

      John Steinbach, DC Iraq Coalition, Israeli Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Threat to Peace, March 2002, http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2002/03/00_steinbach_israeli-wmd.htm, accessed 4/19/04.

      Meanwhile, the existence of an  [...] a world conflagration." (44)

      Lack of credible U.S. action is emboldening Iran to expand throughout the region – only perception of U.S. regional influence checks expansionism

      Zuckerman, 10 (Mortimer, publisher and owner of the New York Daily News, 6/25/10, “3 Steps to Stop Iran From Getting a Nuclear Bomb” http://politics.usnews.com/opinion/mzuckerman/articles/2010/06/25/3-steps-to-stop-iran-from-getting-a-nuclear-bomb.html)

      As far as the war we're  [...] Gulf islands belonging to the UAE. 

      Allowing Iran to take over as the regional hegemon leads to nuclear terrorism and Middle East war

      Cook 09 (Alethia, Assistant Professor of Political Science and the Assistant Director of the Security Studies Program at East Carolina University, “The United States and Iran: policy challenges and opportunities” pages 4-5, 2009)

      However, there are so many  [...] the new Shia controlled Iraqi Government.

      Nuclear terrorism causes extinction

      Mohamed Sid-Ahmed, (Political Analyst for Al-Ahram Weekly), August 26, 2004. Al-Ahram Weekly. Issue No. 705. http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm

      What would be the consequences of  [...] , we will all be losers. 

      Syria is key to solvency

      Haass, Richard [American Diplomat, President on the council on foreign relations since july 2003]88 Foreign Aff. 50 (2009)  Beyond Iraq - A New U.S. Strategy for the Middle East;  N.; Indyk, Martin http://heinonline.org/HOL/Page?handle=hein.journals/fora88&div=7&g_sent=1&collection=journals#56

      Syria is the principal conduit for  [...] the prospects for stability in Lebanon.

      SECOND, Turkey-Syria
      Inaction leaves Syria and Turkey on the brink of war—tensions are high and refugees are spilling over the border

      Bar’el 11 (Zvi, staff writer, 6/26/11, “Turkey concerned Syria border tension could escalate into violent clashes” Haaretz) http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/turkey-concerned-syria-border-tension-could-escalate-into-violent-clashes-1.369615

      The situation between Syria and Turkey  [...] city of Jisr al-Shughour.

      However, Turkey won’t intervene to stop it until military action is the only option

      Cameron-Moore 11 (Simon, staff writer, 8/8/11, “Turkey's friendship with Syria nears breaking point” Reuters) http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/08/us-turkey-syria-idUSTRE7773J320110808

      There is genuine outrage in Turkey [...] to national security," Idiz said.

      Independently, Iran and Turkey are clashing over Syria

      Rosenburg 11 (David Rosenberg, staff writer, 8/24/11, “Turkey, Iran Bump Heads Over Syria” The Media Line) http://www.themedialine.org/news/news_detail.asp?NewsID=33072

      When the call came in from  [...] and organization to the disparate groups.

      Tensions could escalate to all-out war between Turkey and Iran in Syria

      Roy 11 (Olivier Roy is professor of social and political theory at the European University Institute in Florence. 8/24/11, “The crisis in Syria is leading the Middle East into uncharted territory” New Statesman) http://www.newstatesman.com/middle-east/2011/08/syria-iran-turkey-regime-assad

      Syria is undoubtedly the country in  [...] situation from spiralling out of control.

      This escalates to World War III

      The American Dream 11 (6/28/11, “Could We Actually See A War Between Syria And Turkey?”) http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/could-we-actually-see-a-war-between-syria-and-turkey

      In recent days, there have  [...] the OK Corral of the Middle East

      U.S. action reigns in Turkey and solves the conflict

      Badran 11 (Tony, research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 8/16/11, “Obama's Options in Damascus” Foreign Affairs) http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68129/tony-badran/obamas-options-in-damascus?page=show

      The Syrian crisis has demonstrated a  [...] role remains the United States' alone.  

      Advantage Two: Credibility

      U.S. regional influence is waning – the plan is key to change the face of the U.S.-Arab relationship and increases credibility throughout the region

      Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center, fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy. “The Struggle for Middle East Democracy,” Brookings Institute, 4/26/2011. http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2011/0426_middle_east_hamid.aspx?rssid=LatestFromBrookings&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BrookingsRSS%2Ftopfeeds%2FLatestFromBrookings+%28Brookings%3A+Latest+From+Brookings%29

      It would be a mistake,  [...] aspirations. This has not happened.

      US support for democracy in the is key to recover global hegemony
      Byron 11, [“Soft Power in the Middle East: Reforming American Foreign Policy”, March 11, 2011, http://www. presstorm.com/2011/03/soft-power-in-the-middle-east-reforming-american-foreign-policy CMR] (ADI)

      “The soft power of a  [...] for terrorists and other criminals.”3

      Power vacuums cause nuclear war

      Gray, Professor of International Politics and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading, and founded of the National Institute for Public Policy, 2004 (Colin, The Sheriff: America’s Defense of the New World Order)

      The United States could pick up  [...] destruction (WMD) at that.

      Indecisiveness over the Syrian conflict is a unique opportunity for Russia to expand influence—Russia is posturing as the “anti-NATO”

      LaFranchi 11 (Howard, staff writer, 6/17/11,  “As West labors in Libya and Syria, Russia seizes an opportunity” Christian Science Monitor) http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2011/0617/As-West-labors-in-Libya-and-Syria-Russia-seizes-an-opportunity

      With the West, including the  [...] prefer to see negotiated settlements.”

      Russian expansion of influence in the Middle East causes miscalc and great power wars

      Laqueur 08 [Walter, co-founder and editor of the Journal of Contemporary History in London and the Washington Quarterly, “Russia and the Middle East”, Aug 17, http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/mesh/2008/08/russia_and_the_middle_east/]

      Some have said that the Kremlin  [...] open the door to serious miscalculations. 

      Independently, supporting the opposition cuts off Russia’s access to key bases and ensures NATO supremacy

      Bhadrakumar 11 (M.K., former Indian diplomat, 3/28/11, “Uprising in Syria threatens Russian interests”
      Diplomatic Perspective) http://bhadrakumarviews.blogspot.com/2011/03/uprising-in-syria-threatens-russian.html

      Reports indicated that Russia has modernized  [...] the struggle for influence in Syria.

      Maintaining NATO’s supremacy is key to check superpower conflict and European war

      John O'Sullivan, editor of the National Review and founder of the New Atlantic, 6-98 [American Spectator] 

      Some of those ideasnotably [...] the main guarantor of European stability.  

      The US must act to stop genocide in Syria now—we’re at a moral tipping point

      CS Monitor 11 (8/3/11, “The moral imperative in Syria”) http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/the-monitors-view/2011/0803/The-moral-imperative-in-Syria

      For many world leaders, a  [...] crush an opposition Islamist group there. 

      Passive non-intervention in the face of ongoing genocide is a direct and complicit act – the judge has a moral imperative to take a stand against genocide

      Arne Johan Vetleson, Department of Philosophy, University of Oslo, “Genocide:  A Case of Responsibility of the Bystander,” Journal of Peace Research, July 2000, p. 520-522.

      Most often, in cases of  [...] besides our attributing it to a part

      Solvency

      Spurs outside action and transforms US policy—spills over to further anti-assad actions

      Obama Can Stop the Killing in Syria The United States has leverage with the murderous Bashar al-Assad; it has simply chosen not to use it. BY TONY BADRAN 11 | JUNE 14, 2011 http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/06/14/obama_can_stop_the_killing_in_syria?page=0,2

      The administration could then induce other  [...] So what are they waiting for?

      The US should provide training and support for opposition groups—creates an orderly transition

      Karlin and Tabler 11 (Mara E. Karlin was Levant Director at the Pentagon in 2006-7 and Special Assistant to the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy in 2007-9. Andrew J. Tabler is Next Generation Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and the author of the forthcoming book In the Lion's Den: An Eyewitness Account of Washington's Battle With Syria. 5/26/11, “Washington should plan for a post-Assad Syria” CNN) http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/05/26/washington-should-plan-for-a-post-assad-syria/

      As the United States works to  [...] United States' most problematic regional adversaries.



11/02/11
  • Iran Advantage

    • Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 2 | Opponent: | Judge:


    • Current US-Syria policy allows Iran to cement influence in post-Assad Syria

      Rubin, Michael. 17 August 2011. Resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, senior lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School's Center for Civil-Military Relations; and a senior editor of the Middle East Quarterly, former staff adviser for Iran and Iraq in OSD/ISA/NESA at the Pentagon, B.S. degree in biology, PhD in history from Yale, previously worked as a lecturer in history at Yale University, Hebrew University in Jerusalem, and at three different universities in northern Iraq, “Iran Strengthens Its Hold on Syria,”http:www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/08/17/iran-shia-iraq-syria/]

      On February 15, 1991,  [...] whatever and whomever Assad leaves behind. 

      Iran is expanding aggressively and escalating conflict in the region in order to save the regime—US action now is key to check adventurism

      Khalili 11 (Reza Kahlili is a pseudonym for an ex-CIA spy who is a fellow with EMPact America and the author of “A Time to Betray,” about his double life in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, 8/24/11, “KAHLILI: Luring Israel into war” The Washington Times) http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/aug/24/luring-israel-into-war/

      Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei [...] in Tehran from checkmating the world.

      Iran building nukes in SQ  and is causing a regional proliferation crisis

      Jain, Ash. August 2011. Visiting fellow at the Washington Institute, former member of the State Department’s Policy Planning Staff, Former counsel for the Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs, former adjunct professor of constitutional law and politics at George Washington University.  “Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions.” Policy Focus #114. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus114.pdf

      While the world’s attention has been  [...] nuclear material  with its radical friend.

      Syria provides Iran with a cover to complete its nuclear program

      Fulton, Frasco, and Farrar-Wellman 2011 (William, research Analyst for the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, Robert, Iranian Missile Crisis- Hypothetical Crisis Committee , Ariel, contributing author to the AEI Critical Threats Project, “Syria-Iran Foreign Relations” http://www.irantracker.org/foreign-relations/syria-iran-foreign-relations)

      Syrian officials have consistently expressed their  [...] that the link exists.”[14]

      A nuclear capable Iran causes regional proliferation and risks nuclear war and terrorism

      Jain, Ash. August 2011. Visiting fellow at the Washington Institute, former member of the State Department’s Policy Planning Staff, Former counsel for the Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs, former adjunct professor of constitutional law and politics at George Washington University.  “Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions.” Policy Focus #114. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus114.pdf

      While the world’s attention has been  [...] nuclear material  with its radical friend.

      Escalates to nuclear war

      Talbott, Stobe. 2009. “A Path Out of the Desert:  A Grand Strategy for America in the Middle East.”  Kenneth M. Pollack, p. x-xi. Brookings Institution. 

      For decades, ever since 1908 [...] story keeps unfolding and requires updating.

      Middle East proliferation is destabilizing and likely to escalate

      Russell, James A. Spring 2009. “strategic stability reconsidered: prospects for escalation and nuclear war in the middle east.” james a. russell, senior lecturer, national security affairs, naval postgraduate school, 2009 (spring) “strategic stability reconsidered: prospects for escalation and nuclear war in the middle east” ifri, proliferation papers, #26, http://www.ifri.org/downloads/pp26_russell_2009.pdf

      Strategic stability in the region is  [...] substantial risk for the entire world. 

      Emboldened Iran is uniquely more likely to miscalculate

      Ben-Meir 07
      (Alon – professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs, Ending iranian defiance, United Press International, p. lexis)

      That Iran stands today able  [...] of not halting its nuclear program.

      Democratic success in Syria crushes Iranian regional terrorism

      Investigative Project on Terrorism, “Syria: Assad Will Fall; But Will the Muslim Brotherhood Follow?” Big Peace, 6—8—11, http://bigpeace.com/ipt/2011/06/08/syria-assad-will-fall-but-will-the-muslim-brotherhood-follow/, accessed 9-23-11dch

      The current turmoil in Syria ( [...] committed to “freedom and democracy.”

      Nuclear terror risks retaliation and full-scale nuclear war

      Martin Hellman, Professor, Stanford University, "Defusing the Nuclear Threat," Spring 2008, www.nuclearrisk.org/primer.php, accessed 9-12-10.

      Nuclear proliferation and the specter of  [...] U.S. or Russia.

      Transition undermines Iran’s regional influence

      Steven A. Cook, Senior Fellow, Middle Easter Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, “Unholy Alliance: How Syria is Bringing Israel, Iran, and Saudi Arabia Together,” THE ATLANTIC, 5—9—11, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/05/unholy-alliance-how-syria-is-bringing-israel-iran-and-saudi-arabia-together/238084/, accessed 8-24-11dch

      The least surprising member of  [...] what it takes to hang on.

      Assisting Syrian democracy is vital to containing Iranian nuclearization and securing Middle East stability

      Maggio, Kelly. 30 June 2011. Member of the Young Leaders Program at The Heritage Foundation. “’Arab Spring’ Offers opportunity to split Syria from Iran.”  The Foundry. http://blog.heritage.org/2011/06/30/arab-spring-offers-opportunity-to-split-syria-from-iran/

      Nuclear proliferation is one of the  [...] fully committed to stopping Iran’s ambitions.

      Supporting the Syrian opposition peacefully obliterates Iranian hegemony

      Alhomayed, Tariq. 24 June 2011. Editor in chief of Asharq Al Awsat, London, “Curbing Iranian influence without conflict,” http://english.alarabiya.net/views/2011/06/24/154651.html

       Mr. Bush told Chirac [...] opportunity?   That is the question! 

      US leadership is key

      Badran 11 (Tony, research fellow at the foundation for the defense of democracy, 9/22/11, “Axis of Abuse: U.S. Human Rights toward Iran and Syria, Part II” Congressional Testimony) http://www.defenddemocracy.org/stuff/uploads/documents/Badran_Testimony_FINAL_9_21.pdf

      Balancing Regional Agendas  As a  [...] a boost to the Iranian bloc. 

      Democracy assistance uniquely deters Iran

      POMED. 15 July 2011. “POMED Notes: Sen. Graham on the War on Terror,” http://pomed.org/blog/2011/06/pomed-notes-sen-graham-on-the-war-on-terror.html/]

      The Senator was “very disappointed [...] we take for granted.  



10/01/11
  • Kentucky Plan Text

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • <p style="font-size: 14px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="background-color: rgb(226, 226, 226);">Plan: The United States federal government should provide political training and support to democratic civil society groups in Syria.</span></p><div></div>




10/01/11
  • Russia Advantage

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:


    • Russia is expanding in the Middle East now through Syria

      Hider 08 (James, war correspondent, “Fear of new Mid East 'Cold War' as Syria strengthens military alliance with Russia” Reform Party of Syria) http://reformsyria.org/research/research/579-fear-of-new-mid-east-cold-war-as-syria-strengthens-military-alliance-with-russia.html

      Syrian President Bashar al-Assad  [...] think no one thinks that way.”

      Indecisiveness over the Syrian conflict is a unique opportunity for Russia to build up their sphere of influence

      LaFranchi 11 (Howard, staff writer, 6/17/11,  “As West labors in Libya and Syria, Russia seizes an opportunity” Christian Science Monitor) http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2011/0617/As-West-labors-in-Libya-and-Syria-Russia-seizes-an-opportunity

      With the West, including the  [...] would prefer to see negotiated settlements.”

      Sphere of influence and buffer states are key to Russian dominance

      Zeihan, 07 (Peter, senior analyst, “The Russia Problem” http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/russia_problem

      The Russian geography is problematic.  [...] Russia simply is not an option.

      Syria has global implications for Russian expansionism

      Nazemroaya 06 (Mahdi, Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization, “Russian Base in Syria, a Symmetrical Strategic Move” Global Research) http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=2839

      Russian military officials have consistently denied  [...] part of a global chess game.

      Russian expansionism in the Middle East causes miscalc and great power wars

      Laqueur 08 [Walter, co-founder and editor of the Journal of Contemporary History in London and the Washington Quarterly, “Russia and the Middle East”, Aug 17, http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/mesh/2008/08/russia_and_the_middle_east/]

      Some have said that the Kremlin  [...] open the door to serious miscalculations. 

      Russia will use nukes

      Peters 10 (Andrea, International Committee of the Fourth International, http://www.wsws.org/articles/2010/jan2010/russ-j07.shtml)

      Indeed, the Russian president’s announcement  [...] country’s borders without recourse to parliament.

      This impact has the largest magnitude – US-Russian nuclear war risks extinction whereas other nuclear wars do not

      Nick Bostrom, PhD and Professor at Oxford, March, 2002 www.transhumanist.com/volume9/risks.html

      A much greater existential risk emerged  [...] destroy or thwart humankind’s potential permanently. 

      Independently, supporting the opposition cuts off Russia’s access to key bases and ensures NATO supremacy

      Bhadrakumar 11 (M.K., former Indian diplomat, 3/28/11, “Uprising in Syria threatens Russian interests”
      Diplomatic Perspective) http://bhadrakumarviews.blogspot.com/2011/03/uprising-in-syria-threatens-russian.html

      Reports indicated that Russia has modernized  [...] the struggle for influence in Syria.

      Maintaining NATO’s supremacy is key to check superpower conflict and European war

      John O'Sullivan, editor of the National Review and founder of the New Atlantic, 6-98 [American Spectator] 

      Some of those ideasnotably [...] the main guarantor of European stability.  

      Supporting regime change in Syria creates a friendly buffer zone and shuts Russia out of the Middle East

      Semaan 11 (George, journalist, 9/12, “The Eye is on Syria and the Target is Turkey?” http://www.daralhayat.com/portalarticlendah/306674

      The position of Russian President Dmitry  [...] in Syria or commit another one?



10/02/11
  • Leadership Advantage

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • <p>Syria is key test of U.S. cred in the Mideast—absent plan adversaries will test us, risks multiple aggression scenarios</p><p>Michael Doran, formerly of U.S. National Security Council and current fellow, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution, “The Nexus and the Olive Tree,” 8—22—11, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/22/the_nexus_and_the_olive_tree?page=full, accessed 9-17-11.<br class="lineBreak"> <br class="lineBreak">Pressing though these questions may be [...] a different result in the future.&nbsp;</p><p>Signalling weakness encourages belligerence from our adversaries</p><p>John R. Bolton, former U.S. Ambassador, United Nations, “The Danger of Obama’s Dithering,” LOS ANGELES TIMES, 10—18—09, , accessed 9-17-11.</p><p>Weakness in American foreign policy in &nbsp;[...] world, not a virtual one." <br class="lineBreak"><br class="lineBreak">Weakness risks war—multiple sceanrios</p><p>Victor Hanson, Senior Fellow in Residence, Classics and Military History, Hoover Institution, “Change, Weakness, Disaster Obama: Anwers from Victor Davis Hanson,” Interview with Oregon Patriots, 12—7—09, , accessed 9-17-11.<br class="lineBreak"> <br class="lineBreak">BC: Are we currently sending &nbsp;[...] whom it will bite or when.</p><p>We will be tested—Pakistan, North Korea among others</p><p>Ralph Peters, Lt. Colonel, U.S. Army (ret.), “America the Weak: US Risks Turmoil Under Prez O,” NEW YORK POST, 10—20—08, www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/item_GS5vnNwCO6UjfBPf3uobyM, accessed 9-17-11.<br class="lineBreak"> <br class="lineBreak">IF Sen. Barack Obama is &nbsp;[...] allowed to do what he wants.</p><p>Resolute action in Syria is the key internal link. Lack of action undermines global credibility.</p><p>Michael Singh, managing director, The Washington Institute and formerly of the National Security Council, “The U.S. Needs to Speak Clearly on Syria,” Washinton Institutte, 8—16—11, www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1697, accessed 9-17-11.</p><p>When the story of the Arab &nbsp;[...] again need to deal with him.&nbsp;</p><p>Credibility key to stopping destabilization</p><p>Leila Hudson, Associate Professor, University of Arizona, “The Arab Spring: Anatomy of a Tipping Point,” AL JAZEERA, 9—1—11, , accessed 9-17-11.<br class="lineBreak"> <br class="lineBreak">While the US and its client &nbsp;[...] the 21st-century Arab revolutions.&nbsp;</p>




10/20/11
  • Muslim Brotherhood Advantage

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • <p>Status quo policies support the Muslim Brotherhood</p><p>AINA (Assyrian Internaitonal News Agency), “Report: U.S. Favors Muslim Brotherhood Over Pro-Democracy Syrian Opposition,” 8—17—11, , accessed 9-24-11<em>dch</em></p><p>The administration of President Barack Obama &nbsp;[...] significant portion of the Syrian people."</p><p>Israel will feel threatened by Brotherhood takeover</p><p>Joshua Mitnick, “Amid Syria’s Turmoil, Israel Sees Assad as the Lesser Evil,” CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, 5—6—11, , accessed 9-23-11<em>dch</em></p><p>Two worst-case scenarios envision &nbsp;[...] Syria. It’s quite a mess."</p><p>Funding non-Muslim Brotherhood opposition is crucial to solve</p><p>Investigative Project on Terrorism, “Syria: Assad Will Fall; But Will the Muslim Brotherhood Follow?” Big Peace, 6—8—11, , accessed 9-23-11<em>dch</em></p><p>In the Shadows, the Muslim &nbsp;[...] , as opposed to the Islamists.”</p><p>Plan reverses current policy, sends clear signal of U.S. support for democracy</p><p>Herbert I. London, former institute head, “U.S. Betrays Syria’s Opposition,” Hudson Institute, 8—15—11, , accessed 9-23-11<em>dch</em></p><p>As Reuters headlines indicate, dozens &nbsp;[...] to those of the United States.</p>




10/20/11
  • Proxy War Advantage

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • <p>FIRST, Iran-Saudi War<br class="lineBreak">Risk of a civil war is growing—outside powers would intervene</p><p>Hussein Ibish, Senior Fellow, American Task Force on Palestine, “Is Civil War in Syria Inevitable?” ASSYRIAN INTERNATIONAL NEWS AGENCY (AINA), 9—6—11, , accessed 9-12-11.</p><p>The prospects for a full- [...] stakes would simply be too high.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>U.S. inaction spurs Saudi fill-in—power vacuum threats the relationship</p><p>Gavriel Queenann, “Analysis: Syria and the ‘Saudi Dawn’,” ARUTZ SHEVA, 8—14—11, www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/146717, accessed 9-12-11.</p><p>As the Obama Administration appears reticent &nbsp;[...] being called “the Saudi Dawn.”&nbsp;</p><p>Status quo risks Saudi strategic overstretch, internal instability, and an emboldened Iran</p><p>Bilal Y. Saab, Visting Fellow, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute for International Studies, “How Saudi Arabia Can Contain Iran—and Other Benefits from Syria’s Turmoil,” ASSYRIAN INTERNATIONAL NEWS AGENCY (AINA), 8—31—11, www.aina.org/news/2011083118589.htm, accessed 9-12-11.</p><p>No longer turning a blind in &nbsp;[...] . And then Tehran would rejoice.</p><p>U.S. inaction leaves a void in Syria—increases domestic instability and risks a Saudi-Iran confrontation</p><p>Matthew Mainen, Institute for Gulf Affairs, “Saudi’s Dangerous Role in Syria,” MAINEN MIDDLE EAST ANALYSIS, 7—25—11,</p><p>While Saudi Arabia’s involvement in suppressing &nbsp;[...] S. influence in the region.&nbsp;</p><p>Saudi/Iranian proxy disputes risk escalation to a full-blown war</p><p>Gregory Gause, University of Vermont, “Is Saudi Arabia Really Counter-Revolutionary,” FOREIGN POLICY, 8—9—11,</p><p>Would the monarchs of the Holy &nbsp;[...] like al Qaeda and its sympathizers.&nbsp;</p><p>Syria risks becoming the OK Corral of the Middle East</p><p>Frank Hardy, “Will Cries for Democracy Shift to Sectarian Violence in Syria?” SUITE 101, 3—27—11,</p><p>The latest Arab uprising, on &nbsp;[...] the root of her greatest destruction.</p><p>Goes global and nuclear</p><p>John Steinbach, DC Iraq Coalition, Israeli Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Threat to Peace, March 02, , accessed 4/19/04.</p><p>Meanwhile, the existence of an &nbsp;[...] a world conflagration." (44)</p><p>Iran is escalating conflict in the region in order to save the regime—kicking out Assad destroys Iranian regional hegemony</p><p>Khalili 11 (Reza Kahlili is a pseudonym for an ex-CIA spy who is a fellow with EMPact America and the author of “A Time to Betray,” about his double life in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, 8/24/11, “KAHLILI: Luring Israel into war” The Washington Times)</p><p>Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei [...] in Tehran from checkmating the world.</p><p>Iranian dominance risks nuclear terrorism and massive wars</p><p>Cook 09 (Alethia, Assistant Professor of Political Science and the Assistant Director of the Security Studies Program at East Carolina University, “The United States and Iran: policy challenges and opportunities” p. 5)</p><p>However, there are so many &nbsp;[...] the new Shia controlled Iraqi Government.</p><p>Nuclear terror risks retaliation and full-scale nuclear war</p><p>Martin Hellman, Professor, Stanford University, "Defusing the Nuclear Threat," Spring 2008, www.nuclearrisk.org/primer.php, accessed 9-12-10.</p><p>Nuclear proliferation and the specter of &nbsp;[...] U.S. or Russia.</p><p>Syria key to solving</p><p>Haass, Richard [American Diplomat, President on the council on foreign relations since july 2003]88 Foreign Aff. 50 (2009) &nbsp;Beyond Iraq - A New U.S. Strategy for the Middle East; &nbsp;N.; Indyk, Martin</p><p>Syria is the principal conduit &nbsp;[...] the prospects for stability in Lebanon.</p><p>U.S. is the only actor that can solve—key to checking proxy conflicts, ensuring a stable transition</p><p>Michael Young, opinion editor, The Daily Star, “Escalating Violence in Syria Paralyzes the West,” THE DAILY BEST, 8—1—11, www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/08/01/washington-avoids-syrian-crackdown-in-hama.html, accessed 8-27-11.</p><p>You have to wonder if President &nbsp;[...] the far larger community of nations.</p><p>SECOND, Turkey-Syria<br class="lineBreak">Inaction leaves Syria and Turkey on the brink of war</p><p>Bar’el 11 (Zvi, staff writer, 6/26/11, “Turkey concerned Syria border tension could escalate into violent clashes” Haaretz)</p><p>The situation between Syria and Turkey &nbsp;[...] city of Jisr al-Shughour.</p><p>However, Turkey won’t act &nbsp;until military action is the only option</p><p>Cameron-Moore 11 (Simon, staff writer, 8/8/11, “Turkey's friendship with Syria nears breaking point” Reuters)</p><p>There is genuine outrage in Turkey [...] to national security," Idiz said.</p><p>Tensions could escalate to all-out war between Turkey and Iran in Syria</p><p>Roy 11 (Olivier Roy is professor of social and political theory at the European University Institute in Florence. 8/24/11, “The crisis in Syria is leading the Middle East into uncharted territory” New Statesman)</p><p>Syria is undoubtedly the country in &nbsp;[...] situation from spiralling out of control.</p><p>This escalates to World War III</p><p>The American Dream 11 (6/28/11, “Could We Actually See A War Between Syria And Turkey?”)</p><p>In recent days, there have &nbsp;[...] the OK Corral of the Middle East</p><p>U.S. action reigns in Turkey and solves the conflict</p><p>Badran 11 (Tony, research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 8/16/11, “Obama's Options in Damascus” Foreign Affairs)</p><p>The Syrian crisis has demonstrated a &nbsp;[...] role remains the United States' alone.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>




10/20/11
  • Solvency

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • <p>Coordinating communication and political training key to success post-Assad—U.S. should take assume a supportive role</p><p>Tik Root, “Moving Syria Forward,” MIDEAST REPORTS, 7—17—11, www.mideastreports.org/blog/2011/7/17/moving-syria-forward.html, accessed 9-17-11.<br class="lineBreak"> <br class="lineBreak">If Washington commits to the aforementioned &nbsp;[...] on the formation of an alternative.&nbsp;</p><p>Direct engagement smooths out transition, helps address power vaccum</p><p>Michael Doran, formerly of U.S. National Security Council and current fellow, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution, “The Nexus and the Olive Tree,” 8—22—11, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/22/the_nexus_and_the_olive_tree?page=full, accessed 9-17-11.<br class="lineBreak"> <br class="lineBreak">The Syrian status quo, whatever &nbsp;[...] process of transition to begin.&nbsp;</p><p>U.S. support solves sectarian conflict, crowds out competitors</p><p>Ribal Al-Assad, Director, Organization for Democracy and Freedom in Syria, “The Struggle for Syria,” GLOBAL PUBLIC SQUARE, 8—10—11, , accessed 9-17-11.<br class="lineBreak"> <br class="lineBreak">CAIRO – As the violence in &nbsp;[...] force for stability throughout the region.&nbsp;</p><p>This will help counterweigh extremist groups</p><p>Herbert London, President Emeritus, Hudson Institute, “U.S. Betrays Syria’s Opposition,” Hudson Institute, 8—15—11, <br class="lineBreak"><br class="lineBreak">After the bloodshed made international headlines [...] that invariably opposes this political view.&nbsp;</p><p>Calls to step down are rhetorical unless the US assist the larger opposition movements within Syria</p><p>Andrew McCarthy, former federal prosecutor, “Annals of the Arab Spring: Obama Administration Backs Muslim Brotherhood in Syria,” NATIONAL REVIEW, 8—18—11, , accessed 9-17-11.</p><p>&nbsp;Before running off on his &nbsp;[...] and we are in for worse.&nbsp;</p><p>Plan is necessary to solve—squo guarantees military intervention</p><p>Reuel Marc Gerecht, former CIA officer and senior fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and Mark Dubowitz, executive director, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, “Obama, American Liberator?” WASHINGTON POST, 9—1—11, , accessed 9-17-11.<br class="lineBreak"> <br class="lineBreak">Syria will be his real test [...] do the same for Barack Obama.&nbsp;</p><p>Need to act now—will help direct the transition towards moderation</p><p>Radwan Ziadeh, former fellow, National Endowment for Democracy, “Democracies Must Support ‘the Most Liberal and Western-Friendly’ of Arab Spring Uprisings,” DEMOCRACY DIGEST, 6—8—11, , accessed 9-17-11.</p><p>The democratic West has provided substantial &nbsp;[...] friends who might someday become allies.&nbsp;</p><p></p><p>Spurs outside action and transforms US policy—spills over to further anti-assad actions</p><p>Obama Can Stop the Killing in Syria The United States has leverage with the murderous Bashar al-Assad; it has simply chosen not to use it. BY TONY BADRAN 11 | JUNE 14, 2011 ,2</p><p>The administration could then induce other &nbsp;[...] So what are they waiting for?</p><p>The US should provide training and support for opposition groups—creates an orderly transition</p><p>Karlin and Tabler 11 (Mara E. Karlin was Levant Director at the Pentagon in 2006-7 and Special Assistant to the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy in 2007-9. Andrew J. Tabler is Next Generation Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and the author of the forthcoming book In the Lion's Den: An Eyewitness Account of Washington's Battle With Syria. 5/26/11, “Washington should plan for a post-Assad Syria” CNN) <br class="lineBreak"><br class="lineBreak">As the United States works to &nbsp;[...] United States' most problematic regional adversaries.</p>




10/20/11
  • Emporia 1AC

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:


    • Advantage One: Proxy Wars 

      FIRST, Iran-Saudi War
      Risk of a civil war is growing—outside powers would intervene

      Hussein Ibish, Senior Fellow, American Task Force on Palestine, “Is Civil War in Syria Inevitable?” ASSYRIAN INTERNATIONAL NEWS AGENCY (AINA), 9—6—11, http://www.aina.org/news/20110906142551.htm, accessed 9-12-11.

      The prospects for a full- [...] stakes would simply be too high.  

      U.S. inaction spurs Saudi fill-in—power vacuum threats the relationship

      Gavriel Queenann, “Analysis: Syria and the ‘Saudi Dawn’,” ARUTZ SHEVA, 8—14—11, www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/146717, accessed 9-12-11.

      As the Obama Administration appears reticent  [...] being called “the Saudi Dawn.” 

      Status quo risks Saudi strategic overstretch, internal instability, and an emboldened Iran

      Bilal Y. Saab, Visting Fellow, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute for International Studies, “How Saudi Arabia Can Contain Iran—and Other Benefits from Syria’s Turmoil,” ASSYRIAN INTERNATIONAL NEWS AGENCY (AINA), 8—31—11, www.aina.org/news/2011083118589.htm, accessed 9-12-11.

      No longer turning a blind in  [...] . And then Tehran would rejoice.

      U.S. inaction leaves a void in Syria—increases domestic instability and risks a Saudi-Iran confrontation

      Matthew Mainen, Institute for Gulf Affairs, “Saudi’s Dangerous Role in Syria,” MAINEN MIDDLE EAST ANALYSIS, 7—25—11, http://mainen.blogspot.com/2011/07/saudis-dangerous-role-in-syria.html

      While Saudi Arabia’s involvement in suppressing  [...] S. influence in the region. 

      Saudi/Iranian proxy disputes risk escalation to a full-blown war

      Gregory Gause, University of Vermont, “Is Saudi Arabia Really Counter-Revolutionary,” FOREIGN POLICY, 8—9—11, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/09/is_saudi_arabia_really_counter_revolutionary

      Would the monarchs of the Holy  [...] like al Qaeda and its sympathizers. 

      Syria risks becoming the OK Corral of the Middle East

      Frank Hardy, “Will Cries for Democracy Shift to Sectarian Violence in Syria?” SUITE 101, 3—27—11, http://www.suite101.com/content/will-cries-for-democracy-shift-to-sectarian-violence-in-syria-a362174

      The latest Arab uprising, on  [...] the root of her greatest destruction.

      High risk of escalation to nuclear war

      James A. Russell, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Nava Postgraduate School, 2009, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prosepects for Nuclear War and Escalation in the Middle East,” in collaboration with the Atomic Energy Commission, http://www.nps.edu/academics/sigs/ccc/people/biolinks/russell/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf

      Strategic stability in the region is  [...] substantial risk for the entire world.

      Iran is escalating conflict in the region in order to save the regime—kicking out Assad destroys Iranian regional hegemony

      Khalili 11 (Reza Kahlili is a pseudonym for an ex-CIA spy who is a fellow with EMPact America and the author of “A Time to Betray,” about his double life in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, 8/24/11, “KAHLILI: Luring Israel into war” The Washington Times) http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/aug/24/luring-israel-into-war/

      Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei [...] in Tehran from checkmating the world.

      Iranian dominance risks nuclear terrorism and massive wars

      Cook 09 (Alethia, Assistant Professor of Political Science and the Assistant Director of the Security Studies Program at East Carolina University, “The United States and Iran: policy challenges and opportunities” p. 5)

      However, there are so many  [...] the new Shia controlled Iraqi Government.

      Terrorism leads to extinction

      Dennis Ray Morgan, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin Campus - South Korea Futures, Volume 41, Issue 10, December 2009, Pages 683-693, World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race

      In a remarkable website on nuclear  [...] environment and fragile ecosphere as well.

      Syria key to solving

      Haass, Richard [American Diplomat, President on the council on foreign relations since july 2003]88 Foreign Aff. 50 (2009)  Beyond Iraq - A New U.S. Strategy for the Middle East;  N.; Indyk, Martin http://heinonline.org/HOL/Page?handle=hein.journals/fora88&div=7&g_sent=1&collection=journals#56

      Syria is the principal conduit for  [...] the prospects for stability in Lebanon.

      U.S. is the only actor that can solve—key to checking proxy conflicts, ensuring a stable transition

      Michael Young, opinion editor, The Daily Star, “Escalating Violence in Syria Paralyzes the West,” THE DAILY BEST, 8—1—11, www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/08/01/washington-avoids-syrian-crackdown-in-hama.html, accessed 8-27-11.

      You have to wonder if President  [...] the far larger community of nations.

      SECOND, Turkey-Syria
      Inaction leaves Syria and Turkey on the brink of war

      Bar’el 11 (Zvi, staff writer, 6/26/11, “Turkey concerned Syria border tension could escalate into violent clashes” Haaretz) http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/turkey-concerned-syria-border-tension-could-escalate-into-violent-clashes-1.369615

      The situation between Syria and Turkey  [...] city of Jisr al-Shughour.

      However, Turkey won’t act  until military action is the only option

      Cameron-Moore 11 (Simon, staff writer, 8/8/11, “Turkey's friendship with Syria nears breaking point” Reuters) http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/08/us-turkey-syria-idUSTRE7773J320110808

      There is genuine outrage in Turkey [...] to national security," Idiz said.

      Tensions could escalate to all-out war between Turkey and Iran in Syria

      Roy 11 (Olivier Roy is professor of social and political theory at the European University Institute in Florence. 8/24/11, “The crisis in Syria is leading the Middle East into uncharted territory” New Statesman) http://www.newstatesman.com/middle-east/2011/08/syria-iran-turkey-regime-assad

      Syria is undoubtedly the country in  [...] situation from spiralling out of control.

      This escalates to World War III

      The American Dream 11 (6/28/11, “Could We Actually See A War Between Syria And Turkey?”) http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/could-we-actually-see-a-war-between-syria-and-turkey

      In recent days, there have  [...] the OK Corral of the Middle East

      U.S. action reigns in Turkey and solves the conflict

      Badran 11 (Tony, research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 8/16/11, “Obama's Options in Damascus” Foreign Affairs) http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68129/tony-badran/obamas-options-in-damascus?page=show

      The Syrian crisis has demonstrated a  [...] role remains the United States' alone.  


      Advantage Two: Russia

      Russia is expanding in the Middle East now through Syria

      Hider 08 (James, war correspondent, “Fear of new Mid East 'Cold War' as Syria strengthens military alliance with Russia” Reform Party of Syria) http://reformsyria.org/research/research/579-fear-of-new-mid-east-cold-war-as-syria-strengthens-military-alliance-with-russia.html

      Syrian President Bashar al-Assad  [...] think no one thinks that way.”

      Russia wants to establish dominance in the region in the wake of Assad—a pro-Western opposition government would shut them out of the region

      Taheri 11 (Amir, CNN columnist, author of many books on Middle East policy, 10/9/11, “Russia’s Syria game” New York Post) http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/russia_syria_game_voe96d5WkBego04e6l1NRP

      A few weeks ago, a  [...] if, Ukraine throws it out. 

      Sphere of influence and buffer states are key to Russian dominance

      Zeihan, 07 (Peter, senior analyst, “The Russia Problem” http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/russia_problem

      The Russian geography is problematic.  [...] Russia simply is not an option.

      Syria has global implications for Russian expansionism

      Nazemroaya 06 (Mahdi, Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization, “Russian Base in Syria, a Symmetrical Strategic Move” Global Research) http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=2839

      Russian military officials have consistently denied  [...] part of a global chess game.

      Russian expansionism in the Middle East causes miscalc and great power wars

      Laqueur 08 [Walter, co-founder and editor of the Journal of Contemporary History in London and the Washington Quarterly, “Russia and the Middle East”, Aug 17, http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/mesh/2008/08/russia_and_the_middle_east/]

      Some have said that the Kremlin  [...] open the door to serious miscalculations. 

      Russia will use nukes

      Peters 10 (Andrea, International Committee of the Fourth International, http://www.wsws.org/articles/2010/jan2010/russ-j07.shtml)

      Indeed, the Russian president’s announcement  [...] country’s borders without recourse to parliament.

      This impact has the largest magnitude – US-Russian nuclear war risks extinction whereas other nuclear wars do not

      Nick Bostrom, PhD and Professor at Oxford, March, 2002 www.transhumanist.com/volume9/risks.html

      A much greater existential risk emerged  [...] destroy or thwart humankind’s potential permanently. 

      Supporting regime change in Syria creates a friendly buffer zone and shuts Russia out of the Middle East

      Semaan 11 (George, journalist, 9/12, “The Eye is on Syria and the Target is Turkey?” http://www.daralhayat.com/portalarticlendah/306674

      The position of Russian President Dmitry  [...] in Syria or commit another one?

      Independently, supporting the opposition cuts off Russia’s access to key bases and ensures NATO supremacy

      Bhadrakumar 11 (M.K., former Indian diplomat, 3/28/11, “Uprising in Syria threatens Russian interests”
      Diplomatic Perspective) http://bhadrakumarviews.blogspot.com/2011/03/uprising-in-syria-threatens-russian.html

      Reports indicated that Russia has modernized  [...] the struggle for influence in Syria.

      Maintaining NATO’s supremacy is key to check superpower conflict and European war

      John O'Sullivan, editor of the National Review and founder of the New Atlantic, 6-98 [American Spectator] 

      Some of those ideasnotably [...] the main guarantor of European stability.  


      Plan

      The United States federal government should provide political training and support to democratic groups in Syria.

      Solvency

      Providing training and support for the opposition groups is feasible and creates an orderly transition

      Karlin and Tabler 11 (Mara E. Karlin was Levant Director at the Pentagon in 2006-7 and Special Assistant to the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy in 2007-9. Andrew J. Tabler is Next Generation Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and the author of the forthcoming book In the Lion's Den: An Eyewitness Account of Washington's Battle With Syria. 5/26/11, “Washington should plan for a post-Assad Syria” CNN) http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/05/26/washington-should-plan-for-a-post-assad-syria/

      As the United States works to  [...] United States' most problematic regional adversaries.

      U.S. aid would greatly strengthen the opposition

      Gerecht and Dubowitz 11 (Marc, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and Mark, executive director of FDD, 9/1/11, “Obama, American liberator?” The Washington Post) http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/obama-american-liberator/2011/09/01/gIQA3e5HvJ_story.html

      Nevertheless, President Obama used American  [...] do the same for Barack Obama.

      U.S. engagement prevents power vacuums in Syria

      Michael Doran, formerly of U.S. National Security Council and current fellow, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution, “The Nexus and the Olive Tree,” 8—22—11, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/22/the_nexus_and_the_olive_tree?page=full, accessed 9-17-11.

      The Syrian status quo, whatever  [...] genuine process of transition to begin. 

      This will help counterweigh extremist groups

      Herbert London, President Emeritus, Hudson Institute, “U.S. Betrays Syria’s Opposition,” Hudson Institute, 8—15—11, http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=8223

      After the bloodshed made international headlines [...] that invariably opposes this political view. 

      No risk of delegitimizing the opposition—broader Arab spring means the movements are already perceived as independent

      Abdo 11 (Geneive, Director of the Iran Program at the National Security Network and the Century Foundation, 2/18/11, “Green Movement 2.0?” Foreign Affairs Magazine) http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67458/geneive-abdo/green-movement-20

      The uprising in Egypt has put  [...] regime more than the Egyptians did.

      The opposition movement is united in the National Council

      Aljazeera 11 (9/15/11, “Syrian opposition unites in new council”) http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/09/2011915141543350254.html

      A group of Syrian activists have  [...] the Islamic Conference, he said. 

      Supporting the National Council solves and avoids picking a winner

      Shaikh 10/13 (Salman, op-ed contributor, 10/13/11, “Preventing a Syrian Civil War” New York Times) http://mobile.nytimes.com/art/853805/28;.w5?sub=Contributor

      The United States should also recognize  [...] , Syria will descend into chaos.



10/21/11
  • Iraq Advantage

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • <p class="MsoNormal">Iraq is stable now—violence declining</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Askari 10/18 Mayada al Askari http://gulfnews.com/news/region/iraq/buchanan-us-supports-a-stable-sovereign-and-self-reliant-nation-in-iraq-1.897450 Major General Jeffrey Buchanan, US Forces' Iraq spokesman, in an exclusive interview with Gulf News.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Violence in Iraq has declined sharply &nbsp;[...] its office of security</p><p class="MsoNormal">cooperation.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Instability in Syria spills over to Iraq: 2 internal links</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">A. Refugee crisis</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Murray 11 (Rebecca, staff writer, 8/25/11, “Refugees Tossed Between Iraq And Syria” Inter Press Service) &nbsp;http://www.globalissues.org/news/2011/08/25/10958</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">With five months of ongoing brutal &nbsp;[...] than a political impact for Iraq.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">B. Sectarian conflict</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Ghadry 11 (Farid, member of the Committee on the Present Danger and Reform Party of Syria, graduate of America University, 7/1/11, “Syria’s Future: Alawite Military Coup, or Regional Civil War” http://pjmedia.com/blog/syria%E2%80%99s-future-alawite-military-coup-or-regional-civil-war/</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Syria may be on the brink &nbsp;[...] national conciliation is in everyone’s interest.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Iraq instability causes global nuclear war</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Corsi, Ph.D. in Political Science from Harvard, 1-8-7 (Jerome, "War with Iran is Imminent, http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=53669)</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">If a broader war breaks out &nbsp;[...] World Wars I and II began.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Makes all their Middle East disads inevitable</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Steven Weisman, February 26, 06, New York Times, “What a Civil War Could Look Like,” p. Lexis</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">The greatest fear of leaders throughout &nbsp;[...] lead the way among Sunni nations.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Direct engagement creates a stable transition and balances competing factions</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Michael Doran, formerly of U.S. National Security Council and current fellow, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution, “The Nexus and the Olive Tree,” 8—22—11, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/22/the_nexus_and_the_olive_tree?page=full, accessed 9-17-11.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">The Syrian status quo, whatever &nbsp;[...] genuine process of transition to begin.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p>




11/02/11
0
  • Round Reports

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:




11/11/11
  • 1AC pre-Coast

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • <p class="boldcite">Transition Advantage</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Assad’s collapse inevitable, but transition will be messy</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Michael Doran and Salman Shaikh, Brookings Institution, “Getting Serious in Syria,” AMERICAN INTEREST, 11 8-2-11, <!startwikilink:false|-|url|-|http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1001--><span class="wikiexternallink"><a href="http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1001">http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1001</a></span><!stopwikilink></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal">The Syrian status quo, whatever &nbsp;[...] genuine process of transition to begin.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">2 scenarios for conflict:</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">A. Sectarian War:</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Supporting opposition solves it</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Mon Yacoubian, senior program officer, U.S. Institute of Peace, “Saving Syria from Civil War,” FOREIGN POLICY, Middle East Channel, 10—5—11, <!startwikilink:false|-|url|-|http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/10/05/saving_syria_from_civil_war--><span class="wikiexternallink"><a href="http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/10/05/saving_syria_from_civil_war">http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/10/05/saving_syria_from_civil_war</a></span><!stopwikilink>, accessed 11-10-11dch</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">As Syria's uprising lurches toward its &nbsp;[...] directly or through proxies in Lebanon.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Destabilizes Iraq and the region</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Ghadry 11 (Farid, member of the Committee on the Present Danger and Reform Party of Syria, graduate of America University, 7/1/11, “Syria’s Future: Alawite Military Coup, or Regional Civil War” http://pjmedia.com/blog/syria%E2%80%99s-future-alawite-military-coup-or-regional-civil-war/</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Syria may be on the brink &nbsp;[...] national conciliation is in everyone’s interest.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Iraq instability causes global nuclear war, makes US intervention in syria inevitable</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Corsi, Ph.D. in Political Science from Harvard, 1-8-7 (Jerome, "War with Iran is Imminent, http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=53669)</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">If a broader war breaks out &nbsp;[...] Wars I and II began.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Sectarian conflict makes all their Middle East disads inevitable</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Steven Weisman, February 26, 06, New York Times, “What a Civil War Could Look Like,” p. Lexis</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">The greatest fear of leaders throughout &nbsp;[...] lead the way among Sunni nations.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Controlled collapse solves escalating violence</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Mon Yacoubian, senior program officer, U.S. Institute of Peace, “Saving Syria from Civil War,” FOREIGN POLICY, Middle East Channel, 10—5—11, <!startwikilink:false|-|url|-|http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/10/05/saving_syria_from_civil_war--><span class="wikiexternallink"><a href="http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/10/05/saving_syria_from_civil_war">http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/10/05/saving_syria_from_civil_war</a></span><!stopwikilink>, accessed 11-10-11dch</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">As Syria's violence deepens, pressure &nbsp;[...] strategic interests away from the regime.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Post-Assad transition solves sectarianism</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Imadi 12/25 (Imadi, former Syrian ambassador to Sweden, “Imadi says people to resist as long as it takes, Assad’s fall inevitable” Today’s Zaman) http://www.todayszaman.com/news-266674-imadi-says-people-to-resist-as-long-as-it-takes-assads-fall-inevitable.html</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">The situation after Assad would be &nbsp;[...] . This is a big lie.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Independently, plan stabilizes iraq—solves alt causes</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Jeffrey Feltman, Assistant Secretary of State for near Eastern Affairs, Testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Subcommittee on Near Eastern and South and Central Asian Affairs, 11—9—11, LN.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">I'll mention Iraq as well. &nbsp;[...] have a different Syria next door.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">B. Turkey</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Syrian conflict causes turkey iran war—tensions are rising dangerously</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Roy 11 (Olivier Roy is professor of social and political theory at the European University Institute in Florence. 8/24/11, “The crisis in Syria is leading the Middle East into uncharted territory” New Statesman) http://www.newstatesman.com/middle-east/2011/08/syria-iran-turkey-regime-assad</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Syria is undoubtedly the country in &nbsp;[...] <span style="background:lime;mso-highlight: lime">situation from spiralling out of control.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Turkey is on brink of military intervention—risks massive regional war</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Jean Shaoul, “Turkey Preparing Military Intervention in Syria,” Mostly Water, 10—22—11, http://mostlywater.org/turkey_preparing_military_intervention_syria</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Turkey is playing a major role &nbsp;[...] to supply anti-regime forces.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">World War III</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">The American Dream 11 (6/28/11, “Could We Actually See A War Between Syria And Turkey?”) http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/could-we-actually-see-a-war-between-syria-and-turkey</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">In recent days, there have &nbsp;[...] the OK Corral of the Middle East</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Leading from behind means Turkey props up the Brotherhood as the successor group</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Michael Weiss, Communications Director, The Henry Jackson Society, “Turkey’s Hand in the Syrian Opposition,” THE ATLANTIC, 10—26—11, <!startwikilink:false|-|url|-|http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/10/turkeys-hand-in-the-syrian-opposition/247330/--><span class="wikiexternallink"><a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/10/turkeys-hand-in-the-syrian-opposition/247330/">http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/10/turkeys-hand-in-the-syrian-opposition/247330/#</a></span><!stopwikilink>, accessed 11-10-11dch</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">The Muslim Brotherhood, which belatedly &nbsp;[...] landscape of post-Assad Syria.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Brotherhood will strike Israel</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">NTEB (Now the End Begins), “Muslim Brotherhood Urges Protests in Syria,” 4—29—11, <!startwikilink:false|-|url|-|http://www.nowtheendbegins.com/blog/?p=4386--><span class="wikiexternallink"><a href="http://www.nowtheendbegins.com/blog/?p=4386">http://www.nowtheendbegins.com/blog/?p=4386</a></span><!stopwikilink></p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">If you do a search on &nbsp;[...] autocratic rule erupted six weeks ago.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Israel retaliates—Europe and Russia get involved, global nuclear</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Carol Moore, “U.S. and Israeli Threats and Plans to Use Nuclear Weapons,” 11—07, http://carolmoore.net/nuclearwar/</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal">Israel is especially dangerous because its &nbsp;[...] worldwide disarmament movement can stop it.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">U.S. key to solve Turkey intervention</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Badran 11 (Tony, research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 8/16/11, “Obama's Options in Damascus” Foreign Affairs) http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68129/tony-badran/obamas-options-in-damascus?page=show</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">The Syrian crisis has demonstrated a &nbsp;[...] role remains the United States' alone.&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="boldcite">Containment Advantage</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Status quo causes Iran to cement influence in post-Assad Syria</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Rubin, Michael. 17 August 2011. Resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, senior lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School's Center for Civil-Military Relations; and a senior editor of the Middle East Quarterly, former staff adviser for Iran and Iraq in OSD/ISA/NESA at the Pentagon, B.S. degree in biology, PhD in history from Yale, previously worked as a lecturer in history at Yale University, Hebrew University in Jerusalem, and at three different universities in northern Iraq, “Iran Strengthens Its Hold on Syria,”http:www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/08/17/iran-shia-iraq-syria/]</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">On February 15, 1991, &nbsp;[...] whatever and whomever Assad leaves behind.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">As a result, Iran is expanding aggressively</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Khalili 11 (Reza Kahlili is a pseudonym for an ex-CIA spy who is a fellow with EMPact America and the author of “A Time to Betray,” about his double life in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, 8/24/11, “KAHLILI: Luring Israel into war” The Washington Times) http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/aug/24/luring-israel-into-war/</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime">Iran’s&nbsp;</span>supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei [...] in<span style="background:lime;mso-highlight: lime">&nbsp;Tehran from checkmating the world.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Iran building nukes</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Jain, Ash. August 2011. Visiting fellow at the Washington Institute, former member of the State Department’s Policy Planning Staff, Former counsel for the Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs, former adjunct professor of constitutional law and politics at George Washington University. &nbsp;“Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions.” Policy Focus #114. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. <!startwikilink:false|-|url|-|http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus114.pdf--><span class="wikiexternallink"><a href="http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus114.pdf">http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus114.pdf</a></span><!stopwikilink></p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">While the world’s attention has been &nbsp;[...] nuclear material &nbsp;with its radical friend.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Nuclear Iran risks war, terrorism, and wildfire prolif</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Jain, Ash. August 2011. Visiting fellow at the Washington Institute, former member of the State Department’s Policy Planning Staff, Former counsel for the Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs, former adjunct professor of constitutional law and politics at George Washington University. &nbsp;“Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions.” Policy Focus #114. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. <!startwikilink:false|-|url|-|http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus114.pdf--><span class="wikiexternallink"><a href="http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus114.pdf">http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus114.pdf</a></span><!stopwikilink></p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">While the world’s attention has been &nbsp;[...] nuclear material &nbsp;with its radical friend.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Terrorism leads to extinction</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Dennis Ray Morgan, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin Campus - South Korea <!startwikilink:false|-|url|-|http://www.sciencedirect.com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/science/journal/00163287--><span class="wikiexternallink"><a target="_blank" href="http://www.sciencedirect.com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/science/journal/00163287">Futures</a></span><!stopwikilink>, <!startwikilink:false|-|url|-|http://www.sciencedirect.com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/science?_ob=PublicationURL&_tockey=%23TOC%235805%232009%23999589989%231515128%23FLA%23&_cdi=5805&_pubType=J&view=c&_auth=y&_acct=C000014438&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=209690&md5=7eaadd08919055b45011bba80bf06023--><span class="wikiexternallink"><a target="_blank" href="http://www.sciencedirect.com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/science?_ob=PublicationURL&amp;_tockey=%23TOC%235805%232009%23999589989%231515128%23FLA%23&amp;_cdi=5805&amp;_pubType=J&amp;view=c&amp;_auth=y&amp;_acct=C000014438&amp;_version=1&amp;_urlVersion=0&amp;_userid=209690&amp;md5=7eaadd08919055b45011bba80bf06023">Volume 41, Issue 10</a></span><!stopwikilink>, December 2009, Pages 683-693, World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">In a remarkable website on nuclear &nbsp;[...] environment and fragile <span style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime">ecosphere</span> as well.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Middle East prolif causes nuclear war</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Talbott, Stobe. 2009. “A Path Out of the Desert: &nbsp;A Grand Strategy for America in the Middle East.” &nbsp;Kenneth M. Pollack, p. x-xi. Brookings Institution.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">For decades, ever since 1908 [...] story keeps unfolding and requires updating.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Transition contains Iran and checks its nuclear program</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">James H. Anderson, Professor, Marshall European Center for Security Studies, and former director, Middle East Policy, Office of the Secretary of Defense, “After the Fall: What’s Next for Assad and Syria?” WORLD AFFAIRS, November/December 2011, 11—11, <!startwikilink:false|-|url|-|http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/after-fall-what%E2%80%99s-next-assad-and-syria--><span class="wikiexternallink"><a href="http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/after-fall-what%E2%80%99s-next-assad-and-syria">http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/after-fall-what%E2%80%99s-next-assad-and-syria</a></span><!stopwikilink>, accessed 11-10-11dch</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Iran stands to lose the most &nbsp;[...] external pressures hasten its inglorious end.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Russia is trying to establish dominance in the region in the wake of Assad—a pro-Western opposition government shuts them out of the region</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Taheri 11 (Amir, CNN columnist, author of many books on Middle East policy, 10/9/11, “Russia’s Syria game” New York Post) http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/russia_syria_game_voe96d5WkBego04e6l1NRP</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">A few weeks ago, a &nbsp;[...] if, Ukraine throws it out.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Syria key for Russian expansionism</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Nazemroaya 06 (Mahdi, Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization, “Russian Base in Syria, a Symmetrical Strategic Move” Global Research) http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&amp;aid=2839</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Russian military officials have consistently denied &nbsp;[...] <span style="background:lime;mso-highlight: lime">part of a global chess game.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">On the brink—both US and Russia have sent warships to the region</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Shaoul 11 (12/29/11, Jean, staff writer, “Rising Demands For Military Intervention In Syria” International Movement for a Just World) http://www.just-international.org/index.php?option=com_content&amp;view=article&amp;id=5021:rising-demands-for-military-intervention-in-syria&amp;catid=45:recent-articles&amp;Itemid=123</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">The aggressive stance of Arab politicians &nbsp;[...] on a dangerous course towards war.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Russian expansionism in the Middle East causes miscalc and great power wars</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Laqueur 08 [Walter, co-founder and editor of the Journal of Contemporary History in London and the Washington Quarterly, “Russia and the Middle East”, Aug 17, http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/mesh/2008/08/russia_and_the_middle_east/]</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Some have said that the Kremlin &nbsp;[...] <span style="background:lime;mso-highlight: lime">open the door to serious miscalculations.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Russia would use nuclear weapons</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">LAMBERT AND MILLER 97 (Stephen and David, USAF Institute for National Security Studies, “Russia’s Crumbling Tactical Nuclear Weapons Complex: An Opportunity for Arms Control” April www.usafa.af.mil/inss/OCP/ocp12.pdf)</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua">To compensate for Russia’s</span> current <span style="background:aqua;mso-highlight: aqua">conventional &nbsp;[...]&nbsp;</span>judgment of a local military commander.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Russia will use nukes over Syria specifically</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Mead 11-17 Via Meadia Walter Russell Mead's Blog November 17, 2011 Nuclear War In The East? <!startwikilink:false|-|url|-|http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2011/11/17/nuclear-war-in-the-east/--><span class="wikiexternallink"><a href="http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2011/11/17/nuclear-war-in-the-east/">http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2011/11/17/nuclear-war-in-the-east/</a></span><!stopwikilink></p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Nuclear War In The East? &nbsp;[...] comfort for Moscow’s great power nostalgia.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Only scenario for extinctionthe largest magnitude – US-Russian nuclear war risks extinction whereas other nuclear wars do not</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Nick Bostrom, PhD and Professor at Oxford, March, 2002 www.transhumanist.com/volume9/risks.html</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">A much greater existential risk emerged &nbsp;[...] <span style="background:lime;mso-highlight: lime">destroy</span> or thwart humankind’s potential permanently.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Supporting regime change in Syria creates a buffer zone and shuts Russia out of the Mideast</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Semaan 11 (George, journalist, 9/12, “The Eye is on Syria and the Target is Turkey?” http://www.daralhayat.com/portalarticlendah/306674</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">The position of Russian President Dmitry <span style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime">&nbsp;[...]&nbsp;</span>in Syria or commit another one?</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Success in Syria contains Russia and Iran</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Michael Ledeen, “Victory Could Be Ours, If Only We Want It,” FASTER, PLEASE!, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 10—4—11, http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/victory-could-be-ours-if-only-we-want-it/</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">In the real war, our &nbsp;[...] a lot better in the polls.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Plan: The United States federal government should provide political training and support to the democratic oposition in Syria.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="boldcite">Solvency</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Plan solves—abandons the “leading from behind” strategy</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Silverman 12/7 (Michael, Lt. Col, author of Awakening Victory: How Iraqi Tribes and American Troops Reclaimed Al Anbar and Defeated Al Qaeda in Iraq “Laissez-faire approach in Libya may not work at all in Syria” 12/7/11, Christian Science Monitor) http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/laissez-faire-approach-libya-may-not-work-all-syria?page=full</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Syria is a different story. &nbsp;[...] not lose the opportunity in Syria.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">US leadership in Syria is key</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Badran 1/2 (1/2/12, Tony, research fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, “What's Obama's Plan B after Arab League monitors?” JPOST) http://blogs.jpost.com/content/whats-obamas-plan-b-after-arab-league-monitors</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">The Arab League’s observer mission in &nbsp;[...] interests was never a realistic option.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">U.S. aid solves opposition—they are unified enough to receive aid</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Gerecht and Dubowitz 11 (Marc, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and Mark, executive director of FDD, 9/1/11, “Obama, American liberator?” The Washington Post) http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/obama-american-liberator/2011/09/01/gIQA3e5HvJ_story.html</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Nevertheless, President Obama used American &nbsp;[...] do the same for Barack Obama.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Opposition united now</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">VOA 12/31 (12/31/11, “Syrian Opposition Groups United Against Assad Government”) http://blogs.voanews.com/breaking-news/2011/12/31/syrian-opposition-groups-united-against-assad-government/</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Two of Syria's largest opposition groups &nbsp;[...] the government's response to opposition protests.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">No risk of delegitimizing the opposition—broader Arab spring means the movements are already perceived as independent</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Abdo 11 (Geneive, Director of the Iran Program at the National Security Network and the Century Foundation, 2/18/11, “Green Movement 2.0?” Foreign Affairs Magazine) http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67458/geneive-abdo/green-movement-20</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">The uprising in Egypt has put &nbsp;[...] regime more than the Egyptians did.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">No offense—Assad’s downfall inevitable—multiple reasons</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">James H. Anderson, Professor, Marshall European Center for Security Studies, and former director, Middle East Policy, Office of the Secretary of Defense, “After the Fall: What’s Next for Assad and Syria?” WORLD AFFAIRS, November/December 2011, 11—11, <!startwikilink:false|-|url|-|http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/after-fall-what%E2%80%99s-next-assad-and-syria--><span class="wikiexternallink"><a href="http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/after-fall-what%E2%80%99s-next-assad-and-syria">http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/after-fall-what%E2%80%99s-next-assad-and-syria</a></span><!stopwikilink>, accessed 11-10-11dch</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Getting a clear read on developments &nbsp;[...] as Assad rebuffed President Obama’s overtures.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Allies are abandoning Assad</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Schenker 12/14 (12/14/11, David, director of the Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, previously served as Syria advisor to then-Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld. “Bashar Assad in the balance” Los Angeles Times) http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-schenker-assad-20111214,0,3989716.story?track=rss</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="MsoNormal">Barbara Walters' interview with Bashar Assad &nbsp;[...] face the fate of Moammar Kadafi.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p>




01/03/12
  • 2AC Auggie Rd 2

    • Tournament: Auggie | Round: 2 | Opponent: | Judge:

    • T Ans: DG Excludes Regime Change 2AC (50 sec)

      1. We meet: we give training and support for democracy building, not regime change

      2. Counter-interpretation: Democracy assistance includes promoting democratic transitions in countries that won’t reform—gives a caselist

      Huber, 08 Hebrew University of Jerusalem Department of International Relations

      Daniela, Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 13, No. 1, 43–62,  March 2008, “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies”, p. 45-6, http://pdfserve.informaworld.com/69109__790479070.pdf

      What is Democracy Assistance? The term democracy 

      AND 

      accountable. (USAID, 2005: 4) 

      3. We meet the counter-interpretation: we fund democratic civil society groups

      4. Reasons to prefer:

      A. Limits—our interpretation provides a reasonable number of cases. The neg interpretation eliminates half the topic—all Syria, Bahrain, and Yemen affs require regime change before democracy can take root. Aff ground is already horrible on this topic, don’t make it worse

      B. Neg ground—best neg ground comes from regime change—K links are stronger, and there’s a bigger change from the status quo so more DAs will link

      C. Other words check—definitions about the mechanics of democracy assistance prevent the less topical forms of regime change assistance like providing weapons—checks their abuse claims

      D. Contextual evidence—the definition of “democracy assistance” depends on the type of regime

      Mitchell and Phillips 08, Columbia University School of International and Political Affairs International Politics professor; National Committee on American Foreign Policy Project Director

      [Lincoln A. and David L, January 2008, “Enhancing Democracy Assistance”, http://www.acus.org/ files/publication_pdfs/65/Enhancing%20Democracy%20Assistance.pdf, p.11, accessed 7-24-11] 

      Strategies by Regime Type Today’s democracy assistance must 

      AND 

      presenting the United States as a political model.

      5. Reasonability—as long as they get links, don’t vote us down—competing interpretations leads to a race to the bottom because they’ll always find a way to limit out the aff

      6. Potential abuse is not a voter

       Leadership Overview 2AC

      US lead from behind strategy cedes Syria to Turkey and decreases our global credibility—absent the plan, enemies will test us and Turkey will start a military conflict in Syria—that’s Gilbert and Crowely. Loss of global US credibility collapses hegemony and causes great power wars—that’s Barnett. Independently, Turkey intervention in Syria escalates to global war—draws in NATO, China, and Russia—that’s American Dream. 

      Turns the DA—russia won’t listen to us

      Cred: A2 “Heg Bad”

      SUSTAINABILITY

      FIRST, Leads now: financial crisis overstated, relative power untouched, immigration, reserve currency

      Moises Naim, "Why the United States Will Remain the Strongest Country in the World," FOX NEWS LATINO, 8--9--11, http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/08/09/why-united-states-will-remain-strongest-country-in-world/4lko

      The downgrade crisis, and the financial mess 

      AND 

      most powerful country in the world? Yes. 

      SECOND, No decline—other powers declining too, nor rival, alliance systems, education/tech, economy ensure American leadership

      Michael O'Hanlon, senior fellow, Brookings Institution, "The U.S. Still Has a Promising Future," LOS ANGELES TIMES, 8--11--11, LN.

      Yes, the United States has problems. 

      AND 

      meantime let's not lose sight of what's right.

      First, you can’t win a transition would happen—hegemon’s maximize power.  They would never adopt self restraint

      SCHWELLER (Assoc. Professor Political Science @ Ohio State) ‘01

      [Randall, “The Problem of International Order Revisted”, International Security, Summer, p. asp//wyo-tjc]

      First, although hegemonic decline may be inevitable

      AND 

      without historical precedent” (p. 270).

      Offshore balancing undermines american power in the long run

      KAGAN & KRISTOL (CEIP & Editor of Weekly Standard) 2K

      [Robert & Bill, “National Interest and Global Responsibility”, Present Dangers: Crisis & Opportunity in American Foreign & Defense Policy, ed. Kagan & Kristol, Encounter Books //wyo-tjc]

      In fact, a strategy aimed at preserving 

      AND 

      capacity. [P. 15-16]

      Offshore balancing fails and causes the impacts:

      Iran, terrorism and Middle East war

      Kim R. Holmes. Vice President for Foreign and Defense Policy Studies. 2010. Director of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies at The Heritage Foundation. Defending Freedom Is a Choice. The Heritage Foundation. 2010 May 3

      Dismantling Defense: National defense is the first 

      AND 

      values prevailed then. They can prevail again.

      US hegemony solves terrorism – their evidence reflects too narrow a view of hegemony 

      Mendelsohn 09 (Barak Mendelsohn, assistant professor of political science, “Combating Jihadism: American Hegemony and Interstate Cooperation in the War,” University of Chicago Press, pg 220)

      The actions of hegemony, too, are 

      AND 

      a much greater extent than is generally assumed. 

      Containment Overview 2AC

      Iran and Russia are poised to control Syria in the wake of Assad—only US leadership from the front shuts them out—that’s Rubin and Badran. Failure causes a nuclear strike on Israel by Hezbollah and Russian expansionist wars—those go global and nuclear—that’s Laquerer and Morgan.

      Turns the DA

      K Ans: Spanos 2AC

      1. Perm do both 

      2. Case outweighs—Russia war and Middle East wars escalate to extinction which is a pre-requisite to the K

      3. Blaming imperialism for all oppression masks violence

      Fred Halliday (Middle East Report) 99 “The Middle East at the Millennial Turn” http://www.merip.org/mer/mer213/213_hallliday.html

      Recent developments in the Middle East and the 

      AND 

      and oppressive social practices within the Middle East.  

      4. Framework—allow the aff to weigh impacts—other frameworks kill education by mooting the 1AC and preventing us from learning about the topic

      5. Prefer our method:

      A. Empiricism is practical and accurate

      Walt 05 annu rev polit sci 8 23-48 (“the relationship between theory and policy in international relations”) 

      Policy decisions can be influenced by several types 

      AND 

      statistical analysis, and hermeneutical or interpretivist approaches.

      B. Western knowledge production is universally applicable

      Windschuttle, ’02 [Keith, Writer, Historian, and editor of Quadrant Magazine, January, “The Cultural War on Western Civilization,” The New Criterion, http://www.discoverthenetworks.org/guideDesc.asp?catid=127&type=issue]

      Western knowledge is culturally relative: Despite the 

      AND 

      Western science belongs to the whole of humanity.

      6. Withdrawal causes great power competition and war

      KHALILZAD (Rand Analyst, Envoy to Afghanistan) 95

      [Zalmay, “Losing the Moment”, Washington Quarterly, Spring, ln// wyo-tjc]

      What might happen to the world if the 

      AND 

      including the United States, would be harmed.

      7. Other imperial powers are worse—turns the alt

      Victor Davis Hanson 2, Ph. D. in Classics, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, a Professor Emeritus at California University, Fresno, “A Funny Sort of Empire: Are Americans really so imperial?” National Review Online, November 27, 2002, http://www.victorhanson.com/articles/hanson112702.html, 

      It is popular now to talk of the 

      AND 

      , not constrain a blood-drunk rabble.

      8. Alt can’t solve other instances—imperialism will still exist post-alternative which makes their impacts inevitable

      9. We control uniqueness—global violence is declining

      Tomkins 6 (Richard, consumer industries editor of the Financial Times, “Goodbye, cruel world”, Financial Times, 2/4, http://search.ft.com/nonFtArticle?sortBy=datearticle&page=77&queryText=egypt&y=0&javascriptEnabled=true&id=060204001016&x=0)

      Is it possible that children in today's western

      AND 

      - is what we are struck by now." 

      10. Realism is inevitable and good

      Mearscheimer, 01

      [John J., Prof. of Pol. Sci @ U. of Chicago, The Tragedy of Great Power Warfare]

      States operating in a self-help world 

      AND 

      possible.” Survival would then be almost guaranteed.

      11. Anti-imperialist strategies distort struggles for real global justice – resorting in massive violence in the periphery of your anti-western struggle

      Martin Shaw (Professor of International Relations and Politics at the University of Sussex) April 01 “The Problem of the Quasi-Imperial State” http://www.sussex.ac.uk/Units/CGPE/Failed%20States/shaw.pdf

      It is worth asking how the politics of 

      AND 

      its actual role in relation to the victims.

      12. It is the failure to imperialize that allows genocide to occur.

      Boot, 2004 (Max, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. "In Modern Imperialism, U.S. Needs to Walk Softly" Los Angeles Times, July 15. p B 13. Proquest)

      But whatever happens in Iraq, there will 

      AND 

      it did in Iraq over the past year.

      13. They can't comprehend a world without American involvement- the violence they criticize goes both ways- the only difference is that our wars save lives and spread freedom

      Peters, 5 (Ralph, retired U.S. Army intelligence officer, The New York Post, "Protest Therapy," 9-27-2005, http://terpsboy.com/Articles/protest¬therapy.html .)

      It would be far easier to be sympathetic 

      AND 

      a cause to lend their failed lives meaning.

      14. Perm do the plan and reject all other instances

      2AC Conditionality Bad

      Conditionality is bad – vote aff

      FIRST, skew – the aff doesn’t read their best offense because the neg can just kick the position and cross-apply the arguments to other flows

      SECOND, depth of education – the neg can read multiple counterplans and pick whatever is answered least, meaning we don’t get any depth of argument on any position

      THIRD, infinitely regressive – more than one justifies any number – any counter interpretation is arbitrary and self serving, which makes it unpredictable and unfair to the Aff

      [FINALLY, Dispo solves their offense – prevents them from running contradictions and allows us to read our best offense by straight turning a position]

      Int’l CP Ans: Qatar 2AC

      Perm do both

      Perm solves the net benefit

      Russia Today 12-6 (Restricted Alliance: Us Breeds Qatar As Arab Heavy-weight, http://www.moneycontrol.com/news-topic/arab/video-restricted-alliance-us-breeds-qatar-as-arab-heavy-weight_gA-pUPx35S4.html)

      Russia is downgrading its relations with Qatar following 

      AND 

      com RT on Facebook www.facebook.com

      Solvency deficit:

      A. Iran

      Badran 11 (Tony, research fellow at the foundation for the defense of democracy, 9/22/11, “Axis of Abuse: U.S. Human Rights toward Iran and Syria, Part II” Congressional Testimony) http://www.defenddemocracy.org/stuff/uploads/documents/Badran_Testimony_FINAL_9_21.pdf

      As a New York Times report noted on 

      AND 

      US leadership, Iran will fill that role.

      B. Turkey—only a signal of change in official US policy shifts Turkey’s strategy—that’s Badran

      C. Cred

      Khattar Torbey et al., PhD Candidate, Kansas, “Breaking the Stalemate in Syria,” 12—16—11, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/POMED-Policy-Brief_Maalouf.pdf

      When the United States did move in support 

      AND 

      itself from its conservative, authoritarian Gulf counterparts. 

      D. Russia—US presence in Syria is necessary to shut Russia out of the region—that’s Badran

      DB – can’t solve cred and Qatar SP – I/L to Qatar SP is US power vacuum

      Links to politics

      Reuters 11

      Reuters, 9/21/11, Obama seeks to ease doubts on global leadership, mobile.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE78K39V20110921

      Foreign policy has slipped down his policy list

      AND 

      approach undermines U.S. global prestige.

      International is bad and a voting issue:

      A. Destroys rational decision making—there would never be a situation where someone could choose between another nation and the US—divorcing debate from rational decision-making destroys its value

      B. Infinitely Regressive—over 150 countries and thousands of organizations they could fiat—justifies object fiat like the “China wont attack Taiwan” counterplan

      C. Interpretation: Neg gets suggestion CPs—solves all your offense

      Qatar will say no and Iran’s leverage prevents effectiveness

      Smith 9/5 (Sr. Editor-The Weekly Standard, "The Little Emirate That Could," www.weeklystandard.com/articles/little-emirate-could_591432.html?page=2) 

      The fact is that outside the Libyan rebels

      AND 

      wants—to stay on everyone’s speed dial.

      Qatar favors Islamists—they’ll support the Muslim Brotherhood or say no

      Ryan Mauro, national security adviser, Christian Action Network, “Syrian Opposition Council Meets with Extremist Cleric,” FRONTPAGE MAGAZINE, 11—11—11, http://frontpagemag.com/2011/11/11/syrian-opposition-council-means-with-extremist-cleric/

      The SNC is also bidding for Qatari support

      AND 

      by the Islamist government of Prime Minister Erdogan. 

      Hypocrisy undermines Qatar’s credibility

      Kiefer 11 (Francine Kiefer, staff writer, 5/27/11, “Qatar: The small Arab monarchy with the loud democratic voice” Christian Science Monitor) http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Editorial-Board-Blog/2011/0527/Qatar-The-small-Arab-monarchy-with-the-loud-democratic-voice

      It's a contradiction. Qatar, the Gulf 

      AND 

      the democracy builders it is trying to help.

      Qatar admits it won’t be able to do anything without the UN

      Business Week 12 Syria Presses on With Crackdown as Qatar Suggests UN Help January 05, 2012, 11:57 AM EST By Dahlia Kholaif http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-05/syria-presses-on-with-crackdown-as-qatar-suggests-un-help.html

      Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Syria 

      AND 

      , will return and how they will operate.

      Counterplan links to politics—US can’t keep a secret. 

      Wilson and Dilulio 98 James Q. Wilson, Professor of Political Science at UCLA, and John J. DiIulio, Professor of Political Science at Princeton, 1998 [American Government: Institutions and Policies, p. 291]

      American government is the leakiest in the world

      AND 

      the press to receive and print government secrets. 

      Int’l CP Ans: Qatar 2AC Soft Power NB

      Leadership in Syria doesn’t spill over to Qatari leadership in Afghanistan—they already have efforts there

      Plan solves Turkish relations

      Maggio 11

      [Kelly Maggio, “Arab Spring Offers Opportunity to Split Syria from Iran”, The Foundry, 6-30-2011, http://blog.heritage.org/2011/06/30/arab-spring-offers-opportunity-to-split-syria-from-iran/]

      The Syrian turmoil presents the United States with 

      AND 

      in Turkey in promoting democracy in the region.

      Key to Afghanistan

      Werz et. al 11

      [Michael Werz, Caroline Wadhams, Matthew Duss, and Sarah Margon, “After Turkey’s June Elections”, Center for American Progress, 6-23-2011, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/06/turkey.html]

      Turkey is an important partner to the United 

      AND 

      Afghanistan and Pakistan, whose relationship remains strained.

      Promoting democracy kills Qatar’s soft power

      Coates Ulrichsen 11 (Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, research fellow at the London School of Economics, 4/12/11, “Qatar and the Arab Spring” http://www.opendemocracy.net/kristian-coates-ulrichsen/qatar-and-arab-spring

      Although (as explained above) significant unrest 

      AND 

      Qatar following the World Cup bid and its support 

      Qatar’s soft power is inevitable

      Rubin 10 Typology of Soft Powers in Middle East Politics Working Paper No. 5 Lawrence Rubin December 2010 Lawrence Rubin was a Research Fellow with the Dubai Initiative during the 2009-10 academic year. He is currently an assistant professor in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology. Dubai Initiative Executive Director: Ashraf Hegazy Dubai School of Government http://www.dsg.ae/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=Q-q3-9-fwB4=

      Qatar’s diplomatic soft power Described as a “

      AND 

      to host the world’s most popular sporting event.

      Too many alt causes to solve Afghanistan

      UN ‘8 (United Nations 10/14/08 US Fed News, “Build on Positive Trends to Reverse Deteriorating Situation in Afghanistan,” Lexis, 10/14/08

      ZALMAY KHALILZAD (United States) said that

      AND 

      . More forces would be sent to Afghanistan. 

      No impact to Afghanistan- their impacts are inflated and incorrect

      Friedman ‘9 (Hawks and Havens  Posted by Benjamin H. Friedman Benjamin H. Friedman • October 6, 2009 @ 8:59 am Filed under: Foreign Policy and National Security 

      .

        Cohen approvingly cites Obama’s foolish claim that 

      AND 

      , and many Pakistani elites want it back.

      Ptx Ans: Jackson Vanik

      Jackson-Vanik won’t be repealed

      Reuters, 12/14 [“Russia in WTO: US Congress Not Ready for Russian WTO Entry”, http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-in-wto-us-congress-not-ready-for-russian-wto-entry/449843.html]

      The White House faces a major challenge next 

      AND 

      trade body after nearly 18 years of negotiations. 

      Jackson-Vanik won’t be repealed

      McQuillen, 12/14 [“Cold-War Law Blocks Doubling U.S. Trade With Russia Under WTO”, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-14/cold-war-law-blocks-doubling-u-s-trade-with-russia-under-wto.html]

      The House Ways and Means Committee hasn’t scheduled 

      AND 

      adoption of food safety regulations, he said. 

      Relations low – Russia hates McFaul

      ALAN CULLISON, staff. “Russia Slams New U.S. Ambassador,” Wall Street Journal, 1/19/2012. http://www.wallstreetjournal.de/article/SB10001424052970203735304577168992039334260.html?mod=fox_australian

      Russian authorities ripped into Washington's new ambassador to 

      AND 

      December parliamentary polls on Western-funded critics.

      Channel One.

      Keystone thumps

      The Hill 1/25 “State Department tells Republicans: Don’t mess with us on Keystone” http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/206445-state-department-dont-mess-with-us-on-keystone-xl

      Obama’s decision last week to reject the pipeline 

      AND 

      Canada, to refineries on the Gulf Coast. 

      Expansionist Russia makes relations impossible

      Motyl, 9

      Alexander J. Motyl, Professor of Political Science, Deputy Director of the Division of Global Affairs, June 11, 2009, “Why Obama Can’t Reset Relations with Putin's Russia,” Atlantic Council, < http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/why-obama-can%E2%80%99t-reset-relations-putins-russia>

      U.S. President Barack Obama wants 

      AND 

      S.-Russia relations can improve only marginally.   

      Plan is bipartisan

      Seung Min Kim, “Obama Almost Wins Over Hill on Syria,” POLITICO, 8—18—11, www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/61658.html

      President Barack Obama almost caught a break on 

      AND 

      a long history of anti-American hostility.” 

      Key to agenda

      Christopher W. Hansen, President, AeA, “AeA: Advancing the Business of Technology,” 12—12—08, www.aeanet.org/GovernmentAffairs/gajl_Obama1208.asp

      The Republicans are in disarray.  It is 

      AND 

      the impact on high tech will be considerable.

      Even if relations are high there won’t be further cooperation

      Alan Greenblat, staff. “For U.S. And Russia, Distrust Still Runs High,” NPR, 9/14/2011. http://www.npr.org/2011/09/13/140441171/for-u-s-russia-distrust-still-running-high

      President Obama's policy of engagement with Russia has 

      AND 

      a push on Capitol Hill for limited sanctions.

      Obama will only push the payroll tax cut—and it thumps

      David Jackson, USA TODAY, The Oval blog, 1—1—12, http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2011/12/obamas-2012-campaign-opponent-congress/1

      On that occasion, Obama said "this 

      AND 

      point is that that's no longer a requirement."

      Relations low – multiple warrants

      Nikolaus von Twickel, staff. “Lavrov Warns U.S. on Missile Deal,” Moscow Times, 1/19/2012. http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/lavrov-warns-us-on-missile-deal/451270.html

      Lavrov reiterated that Moscow’s concerns that the shield 

      AND 

      said during the evening news on state-run

      Volt controversy thumps

      Sidney Morning Herald 1/26 “GM in damage control as Volt loses spark” http://smh.drive.com.au/motor-news/gm-in-damage-control-as-volt-loses-spark-20120126-1qihd.html

      General Motors has been forced to mount a 

      AND 

      for this administration," said Republican Mike Kelly. 

      Winners win

      Marshall and Prins 11 (BRYAN W, Miami University and BRANDON C, University of Tennessee & Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, “Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force”, Sept, Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3)

      Presidents rely heavily on Congress in converting their 

      AND 

      managing political capital at home (Fordham 2002).

      Plan doesn’t require Obama to expend capital

      Smith and Smith 94 Craig A. Smith, professor of communications at UNC, and Kathy B. Smith, professor of politics at Wake Forest, 1994  The White House Speaks, p. 3

      The second, and related, problem with 

      AND 

      to relinquish anything for the sake of compliance.

      No link uniqueness—bill for action in Syria now

      Gormley 1/22 (Michael, staff writer, 1/22/12, “Syria Sanctions Sought By Schumer, Gillibrand” Huffington Post) http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/22/syria-sanctions-chumer-gillibrand_n_1221840.html

      ALBANY, N.Y. -- The 

      AND 

      Syrian leaders involved in the crackdown on protests. 




01/28/12
  • 1AC Auggie

    • Tournament: Auggie | Round: 1 | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Contention 1: Leadership

      Contention 1 is Leadership: 2 Scenarios

      First, Turkey

      Leading from behind in Syria cedes the situation to Turkey—they’ll intervene militarily—Obama signal is key to stop them

      Gilbert 1/15 (Joseph, retired US Army Military Intelligence officer, 1/15/12, “Did Obama give Turkey the green light to intervene in Syria?” Examiner) http://www.examiner.com/tea-party-in-watertown/did-obama-give-turkey-the-green-light-to-intervene-syria

      President Obama and the Prime Minister Erdogan talked 

      AND 

      intervening in Syria.  I hope I’m wrong.

      Causes World War III

      The American Dream 11 (6/28/11, “Could We Actually See A War Between Syria And Turkey?”) http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/could-we-actually-see-a-war-between-syria-and-turkey

      In recent days, there have been persistent 

      AND 

      risks becoming the OK Corral of the Middle East

      Turkey-Iran war is uniquely likely to escalate

      Roy 11 (Olivier Roy is professor of social and political theory at the European University Institute in Florence. 8/24/11, “The crisis in Syria is leading the Middle East into uncharted territory” New Statesman) http://www.newstatesman.com/middle-east/2011/08/syria-iran-turkey-regime-assad

       

      Syria is undoubtedly the country in which the 

      AND 

      preventing the situation from spiralling out of control.

      U.S. key to solve Turkish intervention

      Badran 11 (Tony, research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 8/16/11, “Obama's Options in Damascus” Foreign Affairs) http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68129/tony-badran/obamas-options-in-damascus?page=show

      The Syrian crisis has demonstrated a number of 

      AND 

      . That role remains the United States' alone.  

      Second, credibility

      Lack of presidential action in Syria threatens leadership

      Danielle Pletka and Stuart Gottlieb, “Shrinking America’s Role in the World Is the True Obama Doctrine,” FOX NEWS, 10—19—11, www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/10/19/shrinking-americas-role-in-world-is-true-obama-doctrine/

      After months of mixed messages, President Barack 

      AND 

      antiseptic remote control alternative to actual American leadership.

      Syria is key 

      P.J. Crowley, Chair, Strategic Leadership, Penn State University, “Obama Must Tell Assad to Go,” WASHINGTON POST, 6—19—11, www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/obama-tell-syrias-assad-he-has-to-go/2011/06/17/AGlZB3bH_story.html

      Six months ago, almost no one, 

      AND 

      fence and on the right side of history.

      And, leading from behind collapses leadership—emboldens adversaries

      Sue Hulett, Professor, Poltiical Science, Know College, “Has Obama Abandoned Global Leadership?” 9—3—11, www.galesburg.com/newsnow/x1638741805/Sue-Hulett-Has-Obama-abandoned-global-leadership

      We also know a bit more about Obama’s 

      AND 

      leadership on behalf of promoting democracy and liberty.  

      Resolute action in Syria is the key internal link. Lack of action undermines global credibility.

      Michael Singh, managing director, The Washington Institute and formerly of the National Security Council, “The U.S. Needs to Speak Clearly on Syria,” Washinton Institutte, 8—16—11, www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1697, accessed 9-17-11.

      When the story of the Arab Spring is 

      AND 

      will once again need to deal with him. 

      We will be tested—Pakistan, North Korea, Russia, Iran

      Ralph Peters, Lt. Colonel, U.S. Army (ret.), “America the Weak: US Risks Turmoil Under Prez O,” NEW YORK POST, 10—20—08, www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/item_GS5vnNwCO6UjfBPf3uobyM, accessed 9-17-11.

       

      IF Sen. Barack Obama is elected president

      AND 

      will be allowed to do what he wants.

      Impact is extinction

      Thomas P.M. Barnett, chief analyst, Wikistrat, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S. and Globalization, at Crossroads,” WORLD POLITICS REVIEW, 3—7—11, www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads

      Events in Libya are a further reminder for 

      AND 

      the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding. 

      Contention 2: Containment

      Contention 2 is Containment: 2 Scenarios

      First, Iran

      Lead from behind allows Iran to cement influence in post-Assad Syria

      Rubin, Michael. 17 August 2011. Resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, senior lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School's Center for Civil-Military Relations; and a senior editor of the Middle East Quarterly, former staff adviser for Iran and Iraq in OSD/ISA/NESA at the Pentagon, B.S. degree in biology, PhD in history from Yale, previously worked as a lecturer in history at Yale University, Hebrew University in Jerusalem, and at three different universities in northern Iraq, “Iran Strengthens Its Hold on Syria,”http:www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/08/17/iran-shia-iraq-syria/]

      On February 15, 1991, during a 

      AND 

      ashes of whatever and whomever Assad leaves behind. 

      Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons

      Jain, Ash. August 2011. Visiting fellow at the Washington Institute, former member of the State Department’s Policy Planning Staff, Former counsel for the Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs, former adjunct professor of constitutional law and politics at George Washington University.  “Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions.” Policy Focus #114. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus114.pdf

      While the world’s attention has been focused on 

      AND 

      technology and nuclear material  with its radical friend.

      Israel is the target

      Norman Podhoretz, editor-at-large, COMMENTARY, “The Case for Bombing Iran”, June 2007, p. asp

      The Iranians, of course, never cease 

      AND 

      and blackmail by themselves would do the trick.

      Iran will use nuclear terrorism to carry out its objectives

      Davis 11 – Cam Davis, “ Nuclear Terrorism: Possible Sources and Gravity as a Threat to the United States,” OPPOSING VIEWPOINTS, 4-4-11.  http://www.opposingviews.com/i/nuclear-terrorism-possible-sources-and-gravity-as-a-threat-to-the-united-states. LAP

       Another country that may provide nuclear weapons 

      AND 

      use of a nuclear weapon on another country.  

      Syria is key—connects Iran to Hezbollah

      Jeffrey Feltman, Assistant Secretary of State for near Eastern Affairs, Testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Subcommittee on Near Eastern and South and Central Asian Affairs, 11—9—11, LN.

      FELTMAN: Senator, thanks for the question

      AND 

      to see that this change take place quickly. 

      Terror attack on Israel causes extinction

      Dennis Ray Morgan, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin Campus - South Korea Futures, Volume 41, Issue 10, December 2009, Pages 683-693, World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race

      In a remarkable website on nuclear war, 

      AND 

      upon the environment and fragile ecosphere as well.

      US-led transition contains Iran and checks its nuclear program

      James H. Anderson, Professor, Marshall European Center for Security Studies, and former director, Middle East Policy, Office of the Secretary of Defense, “After the Fall: What’s Next for Assad and Syria?” WORLD AFFAIRS, November/December 2011, 11—11, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/after-fall-what%E2%80%99s-next-assad-and-syria, accessed 11-10-11//dch

      Iran stands to lose the most ground from 

      AND 

      opposition and external pressures hasten its inglorious end.

      Second, Russia

      Russia wants to establish dominance in the wake of Assad, but a pro-US government would shut them out of the region

      Taheri 11 (Amir, CNN columnist, author of many books on Middle East policy, 10/9/11, “Russia’s Syria game” New York Post) http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/russia_syria_game_voe96d5WkBego04e6l1NRP

      A few weeks ago, a senior Russian 

      AND 

      , and if, Ukraine throws it out. 

      Leading from behind cedes influence to the Russians—plan is key

      Badran 1/16 (Tony, research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and badass Syria expert, “Assad finds his margin to maneuver” 1/16/12, JPOST) http://blogs.jpost.com/content/assad-finds-his-margin-maneuver

      One of the more curious things about Bashar 

      AND 

      in terms of active intervention to stop him.

      Syria key for Russian expansionism

      Nazemroaya 06 (Mahdi, Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization, “Russian Base in Syria, a Symmetrical Strategic Move” Global Research) http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=2839

      Russian military officials have consistently denied reports that 

      AND 

      East and part of a global chess game.

      Russian expansionism in the Middle East causes miscalc and great power wars

      Laqueur 08 [Walter, co-founder and editor of the Journal of Contemporary History in London and the Washington Quarterly, “Russia and the Middle East”, Aug 17, http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/mesh/2008/08/russia_and_the_middle_east/]

      Some have said that the Kremlin is unpredictable

      AND 

      This could open the door to serious miscalculations. 

      Russia would use nuclear weapons

      LAMBERT AND MILLER 97 (Stephen and David, USAF Institute for National Security Studies, “Russia’s Crumbling Tactical Nuclear Weapons Complex: An Opportunity for Arms Control” April www.usafa.af.mil/inss/OCP/ocp12.pdf)

      To compensate for Russia’s current conventional weakness, 

      AND 

      of the judgment of a local military commander.

      Extinction 

      Nick Bostrom, PhD and Professor at Oxford, March, 2002 www.transhumanist.com/volume9/risks.html

      A much greater existential risk emerged with the 

      AND 

      would not destroy or thwart humankind’s potential permanently. 

      Supporting regime change in Syria creates a buffer zone and shuts Russia out of the Mideast

      Semaan 11 (George, journalist, 9/12, “The Eye is on Syria and the Target is Turkey?” http://www.daralhayat.com/portalarticlendah/306674

      The position of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was 

      AND 

      the mistake in Syria or commit another one?

      Only U.S. leadership from the front can crowd out Russia

      Josh Rogin, “Experts to Administration: Help Syria Now,” FOREIGN POLICY, The Cable, 12—20—11, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/12/20/experts_to_the_administration_help_syria_now

      The administration should also form an international contact 

      AND 

      view a video of that protest march here:

      Contention 3: Solvency

      The United States federal government should provide political training and support to democratic Syrian opposition groups.

      Plan solves—abandons the “leading from behind” strategy

      Silverman 12/7 (Michael, Lt. Col, author of Awakening Victory: How Iraqi Tribes and American Troops Reclaimed Al Anbar and Defeated Al Qaeda in Iraq “Laissez-faire approach in Libya may not work at all in Syria” 12/7/11, Christian Science Monitor) http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/laissez-faire-approach-libya-may-not-work-all-syria?page=full

      Syria is a different story. It is 

      AND 

      It must not lose the opportunity in Syria. 

      Aiding the opposition solves

      James Phillips, senior research fellow, Heritage Foundation, “Preparing for a Post-Assad Syria,” WEBMEMO n. 3465, 1—19—12, www.heritage.org/research/reports/2012/01/us-policy-for-a-post-assad-syria

      On January 10, Syrian President Bashar al

      AND 

      inclusive representative government than under the current regime.

      Assad’s fall is inevitable

      James H. Anderson, Professor, Marshall European Center for Security Studies, and former director, Middle East Policy, Office of the Secretary of Defense, “After the Fall: What’s Next for Assad and Syria?” WORLD AFFAIRS, November/December 2011, 11—11, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/after-fall-what%E2%80%99s-next-assad-and-syria, accessed 11-10-11//dch

      Getting a clear read on developments in Syria 

      AND 

      intense frustration as Assad rebuffed President Obama’s overtures.

      No kiss of death

      Shadi Hamid, Director, Research, Brookigns Doha Center, “What Obam and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring,” NEW REPUBLIC, 10—1—11, ://www.tnr.com/print/article/environment-energy/95538/arab-spring-obama-realism-democracy-neoconservatives-mubarak

      But in an ironic twist of fate, 

      AND 

      moment that doing something would be most effective

      They’ll say yes—the US is popular with the opposition

      David Schenker is Aufzien Fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 10/25/2011, “A Fighting Chance: Why Obama’s Support For Syria’s Non-Violent Protests Isn’t Enough,” http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/96607/syria-bashar-al-assad-obama-ambassador-robert-ford

      Since this summer, the United States has 

      AND 

      ”—has unambiguously aligned Washington with regime opponents.

       Opposition is unified

      Choksy & Choksy 11 (Carol E. B. Choksy is adjunct lecturer in Strategic Intelligence and Information Management at Indiana University. She also is CEO of IRAD Strategic Consulting.  Jamsheed K. Choksy is professor of Central Eurasian, Islamic, and International studies, senior fellow of the Center on American and Global Security, and former director of the Middle Eastern studies program at Indiana University, Bloomington. He is also a member of the National Council on the Humanities at the U.S. National Endowment for the Humanities.  September 29, 2011, “The Syrian Opposition: A Strategic Analysis,” Small Wars Journal, http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/the-syrian-opposition-a-strategic-analysis)

      Even if the Syrian revolution produces an armed 

      AND 

      Syrian people’s “legitimate demands for political reform.”

      Assad is going down

      Olmert 1/19 (Josef, Adjunct Professor, University of South Carolina, “How Assad Is Losing”) http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-josef-olmert/assad-syria-rebels_b_1217154.html

      The Syrian uprising started in the provincial town 

      AND 

      prominent place in the annals of modern Syria. 

      Regime collapse inevitable, plan is key

      Savir 1/12 (Uri, columnist, “Savir's Corner: Syria after Assad” JPOST) http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=253432

      Like Mubarak, Ben Ali and Gaddafi, 

      AND 

      affordable education for the young of the region.




01/28/12
  • 2AC Politics

    • Tournament: Aug | Round: 3 | Opponent: Iowa | Judge:

    • Politics cites mn ce 2ac

      Keystone thumps

      The Hill 1/25 “State Department tells Republicans: Don’t mess with us on Keystone” http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/206445-state-department-dont-mess-with-us-on-keystone-xl

      Obama’s decision last week to reject the pipeline 

      AND 

      Canada, to refineries on the Gulf Coast. 

      Plan is bipartisan

      Seung Min Kim, “Obama Almost Wins Over Hill on Syria,” POLITICO, 8—18—11, www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/61658.html

      President Barack Obama almost caught a break on 

      AND 

      a long history of anti-American hostility.” 

      Key to agenda

      Christopher W. Hansen, President, AeA, “AeA: Advancing the Business of Technology,” 12—12—08, www.aeanet.org/GovernmentAffairs/gajl_Obama1208.asp

      The Republicans are in disarray.  It is 

      AND 

      the impact on high tech will be considerable.

      Obama will only push the payroll tax cut

      David Jackson, USA TODAY, The Oval blog, 1—1—12, http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2011/12/obamas-2012-campaign-opponent-congress/1

      On that occasion, Obama said "this is a make-or-break moment for the middle class," and the Republicans' anti-government approach will not address rising income equality in the United States.

      "We simply cannot return to this brand 

      AND 

      point is that that's no longer a requirement."

      Volt controversy thumps

      Sidney Morning Herald 1/26 “GM in damage control as Volt loses spark” http://smh.drive.com.au/motor-news/gm-in-damage-control-as-volt-loses-spark-20120126-1qihd.html

      General Motors has been forced to mount a 

      AND 

      for this administration," said Republican Mike Kelly. 

      Winners win

      Marshall and Prins 11 (BRYAN W, Miami University and BRANDON C, University of Tennessee & Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, “Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force”, Sept, Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3)

      Presidents rely heavily on Congress in converting their 

      AND 

      managing political capital at home (Fordham 2002).

      No impact to economic decline – empirically proven

      Ferguson, 2006 (Niall, MA, D.Phil., is the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University. He is a resident faculty member of the Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies. He is also a Senior Reseach Fellow of Jesus College, Oxford University, and a Senior Fellow of the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, Foreign Affairs, Sept/Oct)

      Nor can economic crises explain the bloodshed

      AND 

      severe economic crises were not followed by wars.

      Plan doesn’t require Obama to expend capital

      Smith and Smith 94 Craig A. Smith, professor of communications at UNC, and Kathy B. Smith, professor of politics at Wake Forest, 1994  The White House Speaks, p. 3

      The second, and related, problem with 

      AND 

      to relinquish anything for the sake of compliance.

      Recession now

      No link uniqueness—bill for action in Syria now

      Gormley 1/22 (Michael, staff writer, 1/22/12, “Syria Sanctions Sought By Schumer, Gillibrand” Huffington Post) http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/22/syria-sanctions-chumer-gillibrand_n_1221840.html

      ALBANY, N.Y. -- The 

      AND 

      Syrian leaders involved in the crackdown on protests. 

      Aircraft carriers which are key to heg

      Wittman 12/12 (12/12/11, Rob, chairman of the Armed Services Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations and co-chairman of the Congressional Shipbuilding Caucus, “Wittman: More Aircraft Carriers Are Key to American Influence” Roll Call) http://www.rollcall.com/issues/57_72/rob_wittman_more_aircraft_carriers_key_american_influence-210954-1.html?pos=oopih

      “Catastrophic.” That’s just one of the 

      AND 

      an outcome we must not and cannot accept. 

      Obama doesn’t want sequestration—he’ll use his PC to push for a bipartisan compromise that’s not the cuts

      UPI 12/14 (12/14/11, “GOP plans to undo $600B in defense cuts” http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2011/12/14/GOP-plans-to-undo-600B-in-defense-cuts/UPI-74061323851400/?spt=hs&or=tn

      President Barack Obama has said he does not 

      AND 

      at the end of the day to avoid sequestration 

      Republicans will keep pushing until Obama caves

      Turner 12/13 (Trish, staff writer, “Republicans Poised to Unravel Mandatory Defense Cuts” http://politics.blogs.foxnews.com/2011/12/13/republicans-poised-unravel-mandatory-defense-cuts

      A group of Republican senators are set to 

      AND 

      determined that DOD will not take the hit. 

      Mars rocket now but on the chopping block—too expensive

      Moskowitz 11 (Clara, senior writer, “Can NASA Afford Its Huge New Deep Space Rocket?” 9/14/11) http://www.space.com/12955-nasa-rocket-space-launch-system-costs.html

      NASA announced its choice for a new rocket 

      AND 

      18 billion price tag for SLS is doable

      Nasa isn’t prepared for the cuts—director is in denial

      Leone 12/7 (Dan, staff writer, “NASA Chief Downplays Threat of 'Sequestration' Budget Cuts” 12/7/11, http://www.space.com/13860-nasa-chief-downplays-budget-cuts.html

      WASHINGTON — The head of NASA downplayed the 

      AND 

      NASA's next manned exploration missions beyond Earth orbit.

      Prevents inevitable extinction

      Gott 11 (J. Richard Gott, Ph.D., Department of Astrophysics, Princetion University, “A One-Way Trip to Mars” [http://journalofcosmology.com/Mars151.html] JG)

      That's where they benefit human survivability.... Many 

      AND 

      funding for the space programme may not last. 

      Defense cuts kill they economy—aerospace

      US News 12/21 (12/21/11, “$1 Trillion in Defense Cuts? Big Deal.” DANIELLE KURTZLEBEN, reporter) http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2011/12/21/1-trillion-in-defense-cuts-big-deal

      In a similar vein, Christopher Preble of 

      AND 

      result in the loss of 1 million jobs.

      Extinction

       Kerpen 8 (October 28, 2008 7:53 AM  From Panic to Depression? The dangers of blaming free trade, low taxes, and flexible labor markets for our current troubles.  By Phil Kerpen, Phil Kerpen is policy director for Americans for Prosperity.)

      It’s important that we avoid all these policy 

      AND 

      risk armed conflicts on an even greater scale.    

      1ar

      Will pass, Obama pushing, top of agenda

      The Hill 1-24 Longer extension of the payroll tax break faces many hurdles in Congress By Bernie Becker and Erik Wasson - 01/24/12 08:27 PM ET The Hill

      The strategy for Republicans is complicated. GOP 

      AND 

      negotiate when the panel meets again next week.

      Ptx Ans: Compartmentalization 1AR

      They a2 prez no push--but

      Political capital is not key—they confuse persuasion and bargaining—only persuasion is needed to pass the plan and their agenda item which is infinite—that’s Smith and Smith 94.

      Political capital not key—compartmentalization

      Dickinson ‘9 – Professor of Political Science @ Middlebury May 09 ""Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power", http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/

      What is of more interest to me, 

      AND 

      the decision to present Sotomayor as his nominee. 

      Policies are considered individually


      Jones 2k (Charles JonesEmeritus Professor of Political Science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, Presidential Studies Quarterly, March, 2000 p.6)

      Besides not considering the full range of 

      AND 

      policies with which the president is most concerned.

      Ptx Ans: Link Turn—Bipart 1AR

      Plan is bipartisan—over 200 lawmakers from both sides are pressuring Obama to act—outweigh spending because plan is spun as national security—republicans will spend money on defense—that’s Kim.

      Bipartisanship is key to the agenda—Obama needs to rally both parties around him if he wants to get things passed—that’s Hansen.

      Plan specifically is bipartisan

      Rogin 12/20 (12/20/11, Josh, covers national security and foreign policy for Foreign Policy Magazine, “Experts to the administration: Help Syria now” Foreign Policy) http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/12/20/experts_to_the_administration_help_syria_now

      President Barack Obama's administration has called for Syrian 

      AND 

      obligation and in our interest to assist them."

      Iran containment is popular

      Cantor 12/14 (12/14/11, Eric, congressman, “Congressman Cantor Statement On Passage Of Measures To Strengthen Sanctions On Iran”) http://cantor.house.gov/press-release/congressman-cantor-statement-passage-measures-strengthen-sanctions-iran

      WASHINGTON, D.C. – Congressman 

      AND 

      count on broad, bipartisan support in Congress.” 

      Pressure on Obama now

      Josh Rogin, “Pressure on Obama to get tougher on Syria coming from all sides,” Foreign Policy, 8-3-11, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/03/pressure_on_obama_to_get_tougher_on_syria_coming_from_all_sides

      As the situation in Syria continues to deteriorate

      AND 

      off investments in Syria's oil and gas sectors.

      Ptx Ans: Winners Win 1AR

      Winners win—all the links prove Obama is a badass, key to get republicans on board because they oppose him now because he’s weak on foreign policy—that’s Marshall and Prins 11. 

      its fast 

      Mike Dorning, Bloomberg, 1/3/2011.  “Obama Studies Reagan Years for Guidance on Getting Agenda Through Congress,” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-03/obama-looks-to-reagan-legacy-as-way-to-get-agenda-through-hostile-congress.html

      While many House Democrats criticized the tax deal

      AND 

      the rhetorical table going into the new Congress.” 

      Empirically proven for Obama

      Mason 10  [covers the White House for Reuters, covering Barack Obama 26 March, “Obama's health win could boost foreign policy”, http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N26180856.htm]

      WASHINGTON, March 26 (Reuters) - 

      AND 

      than closing the biggest deal you have going." 

      Inaction also drains political capital—must act to maintain it

      Hunter 10 [Daily Kos Contributing Editor, Political death by a thousand cuts, http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/11/17/921164/-Political-death-by-a-thousand-cuts]

      It may be a petty, minor thing

      AND 

      you shouldn't be losing pissant little power plays. 




01/28/12

Attachments

FilenameDateUploaded By

01/07/2012

Tags:
Created by on 2011/09/09 22:30

Schools

Air Force Amherst Appalachian State Arizona State Army Augustana Bard Baylor Binghamton Bishops Castle Boston College CSU Northridge CSU Sacramento CUNY Cal Berkeley Cal Lutheran Cal Poly SLO Capital Case Western Central Florida Central Oklahoma Chico Clarion Columbia Concordia Cornell Dartmouth Denver Drexel-Swarthmore ENMU East Los Angeles College Eastern Washington Emory Emporia Fayetteville State Florida Florida Int'l Florida State Fordham Fort Hays Fresno State Fullerton Gainesville State George Mason George Washington Georgetown Georgia Georgia State Gonzaga Harvard Houston Idaho State Illinois Illinois State Indiana Iowa James Madison John Carroll Johns Hopkins Johnson County CC KCKCC Kansas Kansas State Kentucky Lafayette Liberty Los Rios Louisiana-Lafayette Louisville Loyola Macalester Marist Mary Washington Mercer Methodist Miami FL Miami OH Michigan Michigan State Minnesota Mission Missouri State NYU Navy New School North Texas Northern Iowa Northwestern Notre Dame Ohio Wesleyan Oklahoma Oregon Pepperdine Piedmont Pittsburgh Portland State Princeton Puget Sound Redlands Richmond Rochester Rutgers Samford San Diego State San Francisco State Santa Clara South Florida St Pete Southern Methodist Southwestern Stanford Texas State Texas-Austin Texas-Dallas Texas-San Antonio Texas-Tyler Towson Trinity UCLA UDC-CC UMKC UNLV USC Utah Vanderbilt Vermont Virginia Tech Wake Forest Wayne State Weber West Georgia West Virginia Western Connecticut Whitman Wichita State Wisconsin Oshkosh Wyoming


This wiki is licensed under a Creative Commons 2.0 license
XWiki Enterprise 4.2 - Documentation