Plan: The United States federal government should provide political training to democratic civil society groups in Syria.
Advantage One: Proxy Wars
FIRST, Iran-Saudi War
Status quo policy only strengthens the Iranians, risks Saudi-Iran confrontation—need to support the opposition
Robert Rabil and Walild Phraes, “Syria to Become Iranian Vassal or Saudi Ally,” AMERICAN THINKER, 5—31—11, http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/05/syria_to_become_iranian_vassal.html
But, most ominously for the [...] vassal state paying tribute to Tehran.
U.S. inaction leaves a void in Syria—increases domestic instability and risks a Saudi-Iran confrontation
Matthew Mainen, Institute for Gulf Affairs, “Saudi’s Dangerous Role in Syria,” MAINEN MIDDLE EAST ANALYSIS, 7—25—11, http://mainen.blogspot.com/2011/07/saudis-dangerous-role-in-syria.html
While Saudi Arabia’s involvement in suppressing [...] S. influence in the region.
Saudi/Iranian proxy disputes risk escalation to a full-blown war
Gregory Gause, University of Vermont, “Is Saudi Arabia Really Counter-Revolutionary,” FOREIGN POLICY, 8—9—11, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/09/is_saudi_arabia_really_counter_revolutionary
Would the monarchs of the Holy [...] like al Qaeda and its sympathizers.
Syria risks becoming the OK Corral of the Middle East
Frank Hardy, “Will Cries for Democracy Shift to Sectarian Violence in Syria?” SUITE 101, 3—27—11, http://www.suite101.com/content/will-cries-for-democracy-shift-to-sectarian-violence-in-syria-a362174
The latest Arab uprising, on [...] the root of her greatest destruction.
MIDEAST WAR RISKS A GLOBAL NUCLEAR CONFLICT
John Steinbach, DC Iraq Coalition, Israeli Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Threat to Peace, March 2002, http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2002/03/00_steinbach_israeli-wmd.htm, accessed 4/19/04.
Meanwhile, the existence of an [...] a world conflagration." (44)
Lack of credible U.S. action is emboldening Iran to expand throughout the region – only perception of U.S. regional influence checks expansionism
Zuckerman, 10 (Mortimer, publisher and owner of the New York Daily News, 6/25/10, “3 Steps to Stop Iran From Getting a Nuclear Bomb” http://politics.usnews.com/opinion/mzuckerman/articles/2010/06/25/3-steps-to-stop-iran-from-getting-a-nuclear-bomb.html)
As far as the war we're [...] Gulf islands belonging to the UAE.
Allowing Iran to take over as the regional hegemon leads to nuclear terrorism and Middle East war
Cook 09 (Alethia, Assistant Professor of Political Science and the Assistant Director of the Security Studies Program at East Carolina University, “The United States and Iran: policy challenges and opportunities” pages 4-5, 2009)
However, there are so many [...] the new Shia controlled Iraqi Government.
Nuclear terrorism causes extinction
Mohamed Sid-Ahmed, (Political Analyst for Al-Ahram Weekly), August 26, 2004. Al-Ahram Weekly. Issue No. 705. http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm
What would be the consequences of [...] , we will all be losers.
Syria is key to solvency
Haass, Richard [American Diplomat, President on the council on foreign relations since july 2003]88 Foreign Aff. 50 (2009) Beyond Iraq - A New U.S. Strategy for the Middle East; N.; Indyk, Martin http://heinonline.org/HOL/Page?handle=hein.journals/fora88&div=7&g_sent=1&collection=journals#56
Syria is the principal conduit for [...] the prospects for stability in Lebanon.
SECOND, Turkey-Syria
Inaction leaves Syria and Turkey on the brink of war—tensions are high and refugees are spilling over the border
Bar’el 11 (Zvi, staff writer, 6/26/11, “Turkey concerned Syria border tension could escalate into violent clashes” Haaretz) http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/turkey-concerned-syria-border-tension-could-escalate-into-violent-clashes-1.369615
The situation between Syria and Turkey [...] city of Jisr al-Shughour.
However, Turkey won’t intervene to stop it until military action is the only option
Cameron-Moore 11 (Simon, staff writer, 8/8/11, “Turkey's friendship with Syria nears breaking point” Reuters) http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/08/us-turkey-syria-idUSTRE7773J320110808
There is genuine outrage in Turkey [...] to national security," Idiz said.
Independently, Iran and Turkey are clashing over Syria
Rosenburg 11 (David Rosenberg, staff writer, 8/24/11, “Turkey, Iran Bump Heads Over Syria” The Media Line) http://www.themedialine.org/news/news_detail.asp?NewsID=33072
When the call came in from [...] and organization to the disparate groups.
Tensions could escalate to all-out war between Turkey and Iran in Syria
Roy 11 (Olivier Roy is professor of social and political theory at the European University Institute in Florence. 8/24/11, “The crisis in Syria is leading the Middle East into uncharted territory” New Statesman) http://www.newstatesman.com/middle-east/2011/08/syria-iran-turkey-regime-assad
Syria is undoubtedly the country in [...] situation from spiralling out of control.
This escalates to World War III
The American Dream 11 (6/28/11, “Could We Actually See A War Between Syria And Turkey?”) http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/could-we-actually-see-a-war-between-syria-and-turkey
In recent days, there have [...] the OK Corral of the Middle East
U.S. action reigns in Turkey and solves the conflict
Badran 11 (Tony, research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 8/16/11, “Obama's Options in Damascus” Foreign Affairs) http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68129/tony-badran/obamas-options-in-damascus?page=show
The Syrian crisis has demonstrated a [...] role remains the United States' alone.
Advantage Two: Credibility
U.S. regional influence is waning – the plan is key to change the face of the U.S.-Arab relationship and increases credibility throughout the region
Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center, fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy. “The Struggle for Middle East Democracy,” Brookings Institute, 4/26/2011. http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2011/0426_middle_east_hamid.aspx?rssid=LatestFromBrookings&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BrookingsRSS%2Ftopfeeds%2FLatestFromBrookings+%28Brookings%3A+Latest+From+Brookings%29
It would be a mistake, [...] aspirations. This has not happened.
US support for democracy in the is key to recover global hegemony
Byron 11, [“Soft Power in the Middle East: Reforming American Foreign Policy”, March 11, 2011, http://www. presstorm.com/2011/03/soft-power-in-the-middle-east-reforming-american-foreign-policy CMR] (ADI)
“The soft power of a [...] for terrorists and other criminals.”3
Power vacuums cause nuclear war
Gray, Professor of International Politics and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading, and founded of the National Institute for Public Policy, 2004 (Colin, The Sheriff: America’s Defense of the New World Order)
The United States could pick up [...] destruction (WMD) at that.
Indecisiveness over the Syrian conflict is a unique opportunity for Russia to expand influence—Russia is posturing as the “anti-NATO”
LaFranchi 11 (Howard, staff writer, 6/17/11, “As West labors in Libya and Syria, Russia seizes an opportunity” Christian Science Monitor) http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2011/0617/As-West-labors-in-Libya-and-Syria-Russia-seizes-an-opportunity
With the West, including the [...] prefer to see negotiated settlements.”
Russian expansion of influence in the Middle East causes miscalc and great power wars
Laqueur 08 [Walter, co-founder and editor of the Journal of Contemporary History in London and the Washington Quarterly, “Russia and the Middle East”, Aug 17, http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/mesh/2008/08/russia_and_the_middle_east/]
Some have said that the Kremlin [...] open the door to serious miscalculations.
Independently, supporting the opposition cuts off Russia’s access to key bases and ensures NATO supremacy
Bhadrakumar 11 (M.K., former Indian diplomat, 3/28/11, “Uprising in Syria threatens Russian interests”
Diplomatic Perspective) http://bhadrakumarviews.blogspot.com/2011/03/uprising-in-syria-threatens-russian.html
Reports indicated that Russia has modernized [...] the struggle for influence in Syria.
Maintaining NATO’s supremacy is key to check superpower conflict and European war
John O'Sullivan, editor of the National Review and founder of the New Atlantic, 6-98 [American Spectator]
Some of those ideasnotably [...] the main guarantor of European stability.
The US must act to stop genocide in Syria now—we’re at a moral tipping point
CS Monitor 11 (8/3/11, “The moral imperative in Syria”) http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/the-monitors-view/2011/0803/The-moral-imperative-in-Syria
For many world leaders, a [...] crush an opposition Islamist group there.
Passive non-intervention in the face of ongoing genocide is a direct and complicit act – the judge has a moral imperative to take a stand against genocide
Arne Johan Vetleson, Department of Philosophy, University of Oslo, “Genocide: A Case of Responsibility of the Bystander,” Journal of Peace Research, July 2000, p. 520-522.
Most often, in cases of [...] besides our attributing it to a part
Solvency
Spurs outside action and transforms US policy—spills over to further anti-assad actions
Obama Can Stop the Killing in Syria The United States has leverage with the murderous Bashar al-Assad; it has simply chosen not to use it. BY TONY BADRAN 11 | JUNE 14, 2011 http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/06/14/obama_can_stop_the_killing_in_syria?page=0,2
The administration could then induce other [...] So what are they waiting for?
The US should provide training and support for opposition groups—creates an orderly transition
Karlin and Tabler 11 (Mara E. Karlin was Levant Director at the Pentagon in 2006-7 and Special Assistant to the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy in 2007-9. Andrew J. Tabler is Next Generation Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and the author of the forthcoming book In the Lion's Den: An Eyewitness Account of Washington's Battle With Syria. 5/26/11, “Washington should plan for a post-Assad Syria” CNN) http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/05/26/washington-should-plan-for-a-post-assad-syria/
As the United States works to [...] United States' most problematic regional adversaries.
