ADV1
Advantage 1 – the Fifth Fleet
Dialogue has failed and the risk of sectarian conflict is high now – US influence is key to reinstituting a new dialogue
Washington Post, 9/9/11 [“Bahrain needs U.S. attention now”, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/bahrain-needs-us-attention-now/2011/09/09/gIQAjoH9FK_story.html]
BAHRAIN HAS BECOME the hidden story of the Arab Spring. While the popular uprisings in Libya, Syria and Yemen have dominated the news in recent months, far less attention has been paid to the tiny but strategic Persian Gulf emirate, which hosts the U.S. 5th Fleet. That’s partly because Bahrain’s ruling al-Khalifa …
now — before the crisis resumes.
And, Bahrain’s politics are deadlocked – National Dialogue failed because the regime refused meaningful concessions
Ulrichsen, 9/6/11 – research fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science (Kristian, “Dark clouds over Bahrain,”
http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/06/dark_clouds_over_bahrain
The killing of a 14-year-old boy … diametrically opposed camps.
Stagnant dialogue drives Shias to Iranian aid due to perceived US hypocrisy on reform
Al-Ahmed & Jacobs 11 – Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs & Gulf Policy Analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs (Ali & Joshua, “The Crisis in Bahrain” Institute for Gulf Affairs, May 2011, http://www.scribd.com/doc/59873023/Bahrain-Policy-Paper, MCL)
Analysis and Recommendations for US Policy …sketching the contours of a new policy.
Expanding unrest threatens the Fifth Fleet
Noble, 7/21/11 –Southwest Asia/Gulf program intern, Stimson Center (Andrew, “Anchors Away: The Future Of The US Navy’s Fifth Fleet In Bahrain”, http://www.stimson.org/spotlight/the-us-fifth-fleet-in-bahrain/)
Prospects for the NAVCENT/Fifth Fleet …. any of these scenarios from materializing.
The fifth fleet is key to check Iran’s influence
Winegard, 11 [3/11/11, “Understanding Bahrain: How Bahrain Shines a Light on Imperial Policies”, http://www.opednews.com/articles/2/Understanding-Bahrain-How-by-Benjamin-Winegard-110308-808.html]
Bahrain is an important strategic ally …This is an eventuality that is not acceptable to US policy makers.
Global nuclear war
Ben-Meir, 2/6/2007 (Alon – professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs, Ending iranian defiance, United Press International, p. lexis)
That Iran stands today able to challenge or even defy the …. to warn Iran of the severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program.
And, Saudi Iran war – only a political settlement solves
Shaikh, 11 [3/23/11, Salman Director of the Brookings Institution's Doha Center and Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy Shaikh previously served as the Special Assistant for the Middle East and Asia to the United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs and as an adviser to former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers-Salman Shaikh, http://www.troubledkashmir.com/index.php/world-press-today/615-the-bahrain-crisis-and-its-regional-dangers-salman-shaikh]
While US and international attention is … the Gulf region, and the entire Middle East.
Saudi Iran war escalates – Bahrain is key
Ghitis, 11 [March 17th, Frida, independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor. Her weekly column, World Citizen, appears every Thursday, World Citizen: Saudi Arabia and Iran Face Off in Bahrain, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8215/world-citizen-saudi-arabia-and-iran-face-off-in-bahrain]
If there is one thing we have …. and Black Swan consequences.
Goes nuclear
London, 10 [president of Hudson Institute and professor emeritus of New York University, Herbert, “The Coming Crisis In The Middle East,” June 28, 2010, http://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east]
The coming storm in the Middle East is …second holocaust could lead to a nuclear exchange.
And, the propensity for Saudi Iran war is high now – causes regional escalation
Spindle, et al, 11 [April, Bill, The New Cold War, Vice Chancellor for Administrative Services for the University of Alaska Anchorage and Journalist WSJ, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704116404576262744106483816.html]
But comparison to the short-lived flowering, ….when Iran helped to hatch Hezbollah among the Shiites while the Saudis backed Sunni militias.
Loss of the Fifth Fleet causes external powers to fight over oil – escalates Asian energy conflicts
Mead ‘7 (Walter, Senior Fellow @ CFR, Wall Street Journal, “Why We’re in the Gulf”, 12-27, http://docs.google.com/View?docid=ah6sxjndq9qq_387kw2kfkm9)
For the past few centuries, a global economic and … very highest international priorities.
Nuke war
Emmott, 8 - former editor of the Economist (Bill, ‘Power rises in the east,’ The Australian, June 4, pg. l/n
As well as knitting them, however, this drama is also … Senkaku-Diaoyutai islands, Taiwan and Pakistan.
Plan solves – support for genuine dialogue with human rights creates space for political reform
Aziz and Musalem, 11 – *legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law, holds an M.A. in Middle Eastern studies from the University of Texas AND holds degrees in sociology as well as Middle Eastern language and cultures. Mr. Musalem grew up in Bahrain, where he has conducted social research, and has been a frequent visitor to the county over the past decade (Sahar and Abdullah, “Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement,” http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf)
Notwithstanding this intervention… a lofty ideal; it is in the United States’ national interest.
Even if dialogue fails, the plan signals a change in posture that builds goodwill with future governments
Slackman, 11 (Michael, “Dim View of U.S. Posture Toward Bahraini Shiites Is Described,” New York Times, 2/21, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/22/world/middleeast/22bahrain.html?pagewanted=all)
MANAMA, Bahrain — The United States military undermined efforts … anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the news media.
That’s vital to protect the fleet and prevent Iranian dominance
Cooley and Nexon, 11 – Associate Professor of Political Science at Barnard College and a member of Columbia University's Arnold A. Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies, AND Daniel, Associate Professor in the School of Foreign Service and the Department of Government at Georgetown University (Bahrain's Base Politics, Foreign Affairs, April 5, 2011, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics, MCL)
Second, Washington needs to avoid thinking … than be forced to scramble after it is under way.
ADV2
CONTENTION TWO IS IRAQ
The US is withdrawing from Iraq now but is negotiating a follow on force. Al-Maliki wants 10,000 US troops but fragile Shia coalition support means he’ll only accept 3,000. This risks the collapse of Iraq and a new civil war.
Kitfield, 9/8/11 - senior correspondent for National Journal (James, The Atlantic, “Why We're Leaving Troops in Iraq,”
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/09/why-were-leaving-troops-in-iraq/244739/)
Reports that the Pentagon may leave … of control and once again lead to civil war."
Failure to support democratic reform is enraging the Iraqi Shia – this will collapse US influence in Iraq and cause civil war
Habibi, 11 - Henry J. Leir professor of economics of the Middle East in Brandeis University's Crown Center for Middle East Studies (Nader, “U.S. Silence on Bahrain Crackdown Ignores Iraq Factor,” World Politics Review, 4/25, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8621/u-s-silence-on-bahrain-crackdown-ignores-iraq-factor)
Current U.S. policy toward …pushing for substantial democratic reform in Bahrain.
That destroys our credibility
Ra, 11 - graduate student in International Affairs at Sciences Po Paris (Benjamin, “Iraq, Iraq, Iraq,” Washington Times, 4/10, http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/word-national-interest/2011/apr/10/iraq-iraq-iraq/)
I do not believe that a balance of power … we came to do good and, in the end, we did good.
Extinction
Gardner, 7 – Professor and Chair of the International Affairs Department of the American University of Paris (Hall, Averting Global War, p. 210-217)
Or, by contrast, should the United States … multilateral sanctions that could possibly involve the use of force.
The United States should initiate an institutional dialogue between the government of Bahrain and the opposition, where it endorses, as a starting point for reform, the agenda presented by the crown prince and accepted by Al-Wifaq, and the United States should provide support for human rights protections for the opposition.
Maintaining a small presence after 2011 for training is vital to preventing Iraq’s collapse as well building the Iraqi air force
Maginnis, 11- retired Army lieutenant colonel, and a national security and foreign affairs analyst for radio and television (Robert, Human Events, “U.S. Troops Must Stay in Iraq Beyond 2011,” 4/12 http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=42865)
America must keep some … systems without American assistance.
Training deters Israel air strikes on Iran
Ricks, 10 – senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, and covered the U.S. military for the Washington Post from 2000 through 2008 (Tom, “Will Tehran push Baghdad to re-open the SOFA with the crusaders in 2011? ,” 3/4, http://ricks.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/03/04/will_tehran_push_baghdad_to_re_open_the_sofa_with_the_crusaders_in_2011)
Regardless of who wins the election, … potential Israeli air strikes stays closed.
World War 3
Ivashov, 7 – analyst at the Strategic Culture Foundation (Leonid, “Iran : the Threat of a Nuclear War”, 4/21,
http://www.megachip.info/modules.php?name=Sections&op=viewarticle&artid=3871)
What might cause the force … much more nightmarish than WWII.
US support for Shia inclusion and meaningful reform prevents Bahrain from escalating discontent in Iraq
Terrill, 8/2/11 – Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute (Andrew, “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World,” http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/The-Arab-Spring-and-the-Future-of-US-Interests/2011/8/2#bahrain)
The conflict in Bahrain remains … is paid to the needs of Bahraini Shi'ites.
The United States should initiate an institutional dialogue between the government of Bahrain and the opposition, where it endorses, as a starting point for reform, the agenda presented by the crown prince and accepted by Al-Wifaq, and the United States should provide support for human rights protections for the opposition.
The plan is vital to boosting US relations with Iraqi Shia leaders
AP, 11 (“Crackdown in Bahrain enflames Iraq’s Shia community,” 4/2, http://www.dawn.com/2011/04/02/crackdown-in-bahrain-enflames-iraqs-shia-community.html)
BAGHDAD: The sewing machines have been furiously … to it and directing their concern to Libya only.”
The United States should initiate an institutional dialogue between the government of Bahrain and the opposition, where it endorses, as a starting point for reform, the agenda presented by the crown prince and accepted by Al-Wifaq, and the United States should provide support for human rights protections for the opposition.
