The United States should initiate an institutional dialogue between the government of Bahrain and the opposition, where it endorses, as a starting point for reform, the agenda presented by the crown prince and accepted by Al-Wifaq, and the United States should provide support for human rights protections for the opposition.
Advantage 1 – the Fifth Fleet
Dialogue has failed and the risk of sectarian conflict is high now – US influence is key to reinstituting a new dialogue
Washington Post, 9/9/11 [“Bahrain needs U.S. attention now”, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/bahrain-needs-us-attention-now/2011/09/09/gIQAjoH9FK_story.html]
BAHRAIN HAS BECOME the hidden story of the Arab Spring…. now — before the crisis resumes.
And, Bahrain’s politics are deadlocked – its National Dialogue was a failure because the regime refused to make meaningful concessions
Ulrichsen, 9/6/11- is a research fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science (Kristian, “Dark clouds over Bahrain,”
http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/06/dark_clouds_over_bahrain
The killing of a 14-year-old boy by police on the island of Sitra on Aug. 31…. the battle-lines will be drawn for a new clash between diametrically opposed camps.
The lack of progress in the dialogue is driving the Bahrain Shia to seek Iranian aid because of perceived US hypocrisy in not supporting meaningful reform
Al-Ahmed & Jacobs 11 – Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs & Gulf Policy Analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs (Ali & Joshua, “The Crisis in Bahrain” Institute for Gulf Affairs, May 2011, http://www.scribd.com/doc/59873023/Bahrain-Policy-Paper, MCL)
Analysis and Recommendations for US Policy While it may be possible for the US to exit the crisis without… applying pressure and to start sketching the contours of a new policy.
Expanding unrest threatens the Fifth Fleet – Shia hostility will force the US out
Noble, 7/21/11 - Intern with the Southwest Asia/Gulf program at the Stimson Center (Andrew, “Anchors Away: The Future Of The US Navy’s Fifth Fleet In Bahrain”, http://www.stimson.org/spotlight/the-us-fifth-fleet-in-bahrain/)
The home base of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet has become a subject of discussion… Both Washington and Manama, as well as the neighbors of Bahrain, have an interest in preventing any of these scenarios from materializing.
The fifth fleet is key to check Iran’s influence
Winegard, 11 [3/11/11, “Understanding Bahrain: How Bahrain Shines a Light on Imperial Policies”,http://www.opednews.com/articles/2/Understanding-Bahrain-How-by-Benjamin-Winegard-110308-808.html]
Bahrain is an important strategic ally of the US: it promotes "stability" in the Gulf,… This is an eventuality that is not acceptable to US policy makers.
Global nuclear war
Ben-Meir, 2/6/2007 (Alon – professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs, Ending iranian defiance, United Press International, p. lexis)
That Iran stands today able to challenge or even defy the United States in every sphere of American influence in the Middle East attests to the dismal failure of the Bush administration's policy toward it during the last six years. Feeling emboldened and unrestrained, Tehran may,… but to warn Iran of the severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program.
And, Saudi Iran war – only a political settlement solves
Shaikh, 11 [3/23/11, Salman Director of the Brookings Institution's Doha Center and Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy Shaikh previously served as the Special Assistant for the Middle East and Asia to the United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs and as an adviser to former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers-Salman Shaikh,http://www.troubledkashmir.com/index.php/world-press-today/615-the-bahrain-crisis-and-its-regional-dangers-salman-shaikh]
While US and international attention is focused largely elsewhere in the region, especially Libya, the violent crackdown against…. It is now time to put aside sectarian concerns and deep seated existential fears and get on with the job of achieving this for the future of Bahrain, the Gulf region, and the entire Middle East.
Saudi Iran war escalates – Bahrain is key
Ghitis, 11 [March 17th, Frida, independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor. Her weekly column, World Citizen, appears every Thursday, World Citizen: Saudi Arabia and Iran Face Off in Bahrain,http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8215/world-citizen-saudi-arabia-and-iran-face-off-in-bahrain]
If there is one thing we have learned from the events of the last few weeks,… proportions and Black Swan consequences.
And, the propensity for Saudi Iran war is high now – causes regional escalation
Spindle, et al, 11 [April, Bill, The New Cold War, Vice Chancellor for Administrative Services for the University of Alaska Anchorage and Journalist WSJ, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704116404576262744106483816.html]
But comparison to the short-lived flowering of protests 40 years ago in Czechoslovakia… when Iran helped to hatch Hezbollah among the Shiites while the Saudis backed Sunni militias.
Goes nuclear
London, 10 [president of Hudson Institute and professor emeritus of New York University, Herbert, “The Coming Crisis In The Middle East,” June 28, 2010, http://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east]
The coming storm in the Middle East is gaining momentum; like conditions prior to World War I, all it takes… second holocaust could lead to a nuclear exchange.
And, it escalates globally
Russell, 09 - Editor of Strategic Insights, Senior Lecturer Department of National Security Affairs (James, Spring, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” Security Studies Center Proliferation Papers,http://www.ifri.org/downloads/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf)
Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined by various factors: (1) asymmetric interests in the bargaining… unprecedented disaster for the peoples of the region, with substantial risk for the entire world.
Loss of the Fifth Fleet causes external powers to fight over oil resources – this escalates Asian energy conflicts
Mead ‘7 (Walter, Senior Fellow @ CFR, Wall Street Journal, “Why We’re in the Gulf”, 12-27, http://docs.google.com/View?docid=ah6sxjndq9qq_387kw2kfkm9)
For the past few centuries, a global economic and political system has been slowly taking shape under first British…will necessarily make the security of the Persian Gulf states one of America's very highest international priorities.
This causes world war
Emmott, 8 - former editor of the Economist (Bill, ‘Power rises in the east,’ The Australian, June 4, pg. l/n
As well as knitting them, however, this drama is also grinding together Asian powers that had previously kept a strict economic and political…. the East China Sea and the Senkaku-Diaoyutai islands, Taiwan and Pakistan.
The plan solves - clear U.S. support for a genuine dialogue that includes human rights creates space for political reform
Aziz and Musalem, 11 - *legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law, holds an M.A. in Middle Eastern studies from the University of Texas AND holds degrees in sociology as well as Middle Eastern language and cultures. Mr. Musalem grew up in Bahrain, where he has conducted social research, and has been a frequent visitor to the county over the past decade (Sahar and Abdullah, “Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement,” http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf)
Foreign Intervention by Saudi Arabia Instead of Iran
The Saudi monarchy watched in horror as one Arab dictator after another was deposed by a population demanding democracy. Fearing for its own rule,… it is in the United States’ national interest.
Even if the dialogue fails, the plan signals a change in posture that builds relations with future governments
Slackman, 11 (Michael, “Dim View of U.S. Posture Toward Bahraini Shiites Is Described,” New York Times, 2/21,http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/22/world/middleeast/22bahrain.html?pagewanted=all)
MANAMA, Bahrain — The United States military undermined efforts to improve relations with …. anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the news media.
That’s vital to protect the Fifth Fleet and prevent increased Iranian influence
Cooley and Nexon, 11 – Alexander, Associate Professor of Political Science at Barnard College and a member of Columbia University's Arnold A. Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies, AND Daniel, Associate Professor in the School of Foreign Service and the Department of Government at Georgetown University (Bahrain's Base Politics, Foreign Affairs, April 5, 2011,http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics, MCL))
Second, Washington needs to avoid thinking about its basing arrangements in terms of a simple trade-off…. the next political crisis hits than be forced to scramble after it is under way.
Iraq advantage
The US is withdrawing from Iraq now but is negotiating a follow on force. Al-Maliki wants 10,000 US troops but fragile Shia coalition support means he’ll only accept 3,000. This risks the collapse of Iraq and a new civil war.
Kitfield, 9/8/11 - senior correspondent for National Journal (James, The Atlantic, “Why We're Leaving Troops in Iraq,”
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/09/why-were-leaving-troops-in-iraq/244739/)
Reports that the Pentagon may leave only a token U.S. force of 3,000 …...events could spin out of control and once again lead to civil war."
Shia refusal to support greater US military presence is because of perceived US tolerance of the repression of Bahrain’s Shia. A US commitment to democratic reform in Bahrain is vital to preventing civil war in Iraq.
Habibi, 11 - Henry J. Leir professor of economics of the Middle East in Brandeis University's Crown Center for Middle East Studies (Nader, “U.S. Silence on Bahrain Crackdown Ignores Iraq Factor,” World Politics Review, 4/25, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8621/u-s-silence-on-bahrain-crackdown-ignores-iraq-factor)
Current U.S. policy toward Bahrain not only ignores the basic human rights of Bahrain's Shiites,… substantial democratic reform in Bahrain.
The plan is vital to boosting US relations with Iraqi Shia leaders
AP, 11 (“Crackdown in Bahrain enflames Iraq’s Shia community,” 4/2, http://www.dawn.com/2011/04/02/crackdown-in-bahrain-enflames-iraqs-shia-community.html)
BAGHDAD: The sewing machines have been furiously churning out red and white Bahraini flags…. attention to it and directing their concern to Libya only.”
Complete withdrawal eviscerates US credibility entirely – it will make Iraq look like an utter failure and that the US is retreating in weakness
Ra, 11 - graduate student in International Affairs at Sciences Po Paris (Benjamin, “Iraq, Iraq, Iraq,” Washington Times, 4/10,http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/word-national-interest/2011/apr/10/iraq-iraq-iraq/)
Three dangerous currents are coinciding today in the Middle East…. Then, we may say to the world and particularly to those who opposed us, that we came to do good and, in the end, we did good.
This will trigger preemptive attacks around the globe and risks multiple extinction scenarios
Gardner, 7 - Professor and Chair of the International Affairs Department of the American University of Paris (Hall, Averting Global War, p. 210-217)
The confrontation with Iran, for example, creates a scenario…. multilateral sanctions that could possibly involve the use of force.
Maintaining a small US presence after 2011 for training is vital to preventing the total collapse of Iraq – it’s also vital to building the Iraqi air force
Maginnis, 11- retired Army lieutenant colonel, and a national security and foreign affairs analyst for radio and television (Robert, Human Events, “U.S. Troops Must Stay in Iraq Beyond 2011,” 4/12 http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=42865)
America must keep some forces in Iraq past the December 2011 deadline or face potentially serious consequences.
… complicated systems without American assistance.
Training for an Iraqi air force deters Israel air strikes on Iran
Ricks, 10 – senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, and covered the U.S. military for the Washington Post from 2000 through 2008 (Tom, “Will Tehran push Baghdad to re-open the SOFA with the crusaders in 2011? ,” 3/4,
http://ricks.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/03/04/will_tehran_push_baghdad_to_re_open_the_sofa_with_the_crusaders_in_2011)
Last night I was reading a very thorough analysis of Iraqi politics…. potential Israeli air strikes stays closed.
That would cause World War 3
Ivashov, 7 - analyst at the Strategic Culture Foundation (Leonid, “Iran : the Threat of a Nuclear War”, 4/21,
http://www.megachip.info/modules.php?name=Sections&op=viewarticle&artid=3871)
What might cause the force major event of the required scale?.... much more nightmarish than WWII.
US support for the full inclusion of the Shia in the dialogue and for meaningful democratic reform will prevent Bahrain from escalating anger in Iraq
Terrill, 8/2/11 – Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute (Andrew, “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World,” http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/The-Arab-Spring-and-the-Future-of-US-Interests/2011/8/2#bahrain)
The conflict in Bahrain remains serious even after the March 2011… this situation may be reparable if strong attention is paid to the needs of Bahraini Shi'ites.
