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Michigan Keller - Xheka Affirmative

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09/05/11
  • 1AC

    • Tournament: GSU | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

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    • *1AC

      1ac - plan

      The United States should initiate an institutional dialogue between the government of Bahrain and the opposition, where it endorses, as a starting point for reform, the agenda presented by the crown prince and accepted by Al-Wifaq, and the United States should provide support for human rights protections for the opposition.

      1ac – fifth fleet

      Advantage 1 – the Fifth Fleet

      Bahrain’s politics are deadlocked – its National Dialogue was a failure because the regime refused to make meaningful concessions
      Ulrichsen, 9/6/11-  is a research fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science (Kristian, “Dark clouds over Bahrain,”
      http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/06/dark_clouds_over_bahrain

      The killing of a 14-year-old boy by police on the island of Sitra on Aug. 31 …….drawn for a new clash between diametrically opposed camps.

      The lack of progress in the dialogue is driving the Bahrain Shia to seek Iranian aid because of perceived US hypocrisy in not supporting meaningful reform
      Al-Ahmed & Jacobs 11 – Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs & Gulf Policy Analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs (Ali & Joshua, “The Crisis in Bahrain” Institute for Gulf Affairs, May 2011, http://www.scribd.com/doc/59873023/Bahrain-Policy-Paper, MCL)

      Analysis and Recommendations for US Policy While it may be possible for the ….of time and maneuvering room to begin applying pressure and to start sketching the contours of a new policy. 

      Expanding unrest threatens the Fifth Fleet – Shia hostility will force the US out
      Noble, 7/21/11 - Intern with the Southwest Asia/Gulf program at the Stimson Center (Andrew, “Anchors Away: The Future Of The US Navy’s Fifth Fleet In Bahrain”, http://www.stimson.org/spotlight/the-us-fifth-fleet-in-bahrain/)

      The home base of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet has become a subject of ……neighbors of Bahrain, have an interest in preventing any of these scenarios from materializing.

      The Fifth Fleet deters Iranian regional aggression
      Goure and Grant, 9 - *vice president with the Lexington Institute, a nonprofit public-policy research organization.  He is involved in a wide range of issues as part of the institute's national security program senior fellow at the Lexington Institute (Daniel and Rebecca, Naval War College Review, “U.S. Naval Options for Influencing Iran,” Autumn, proquest)

      NAVAL OPTIONS FOR INFLUENCING IRAN The U.S. Navy can be an enormously ….small reductions in the size of the fleet can have enormous consequences for the U.S. Navy's presence in the Persian Gulf.

      Iranian aggression in Bahrain will trigger war with Saudi Arabia
      Ghitis, 11 - an independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor, She has worked in all corners of the world, traveling in Iraq during and after the rule of Saddam Hussein. She worked in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt during Desert Storm. As a consultant, she advises organizations operating or contemplating projects in diverse regions of the world, providing political analysis and forecasting. (Frida, “World Citizen: Saudi Arabia and Iran Face Off in Bahrain,” World Politics Review, 3/17, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8215/world-citizen-saudi-arabia-and-iran-face-off-in-bahrain

      Bahrain is a sectarian faultline between Muslim Sunnis and Shiites, …..geopolitical tsunami with global proportions  and Black Swan consequences.

      Saudi-Iranian conflict destabilizes the entire Middle East and escalates to nuclear war
      London 10 - president of Hudson Institute and professor emeritus of New York University (Herbert,  “The Coming Crisis In The Middle East,” June 28, 2010, http://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east) 

      The coming storm in the Middle East is gaining momentum…… the prospect of a second holocaust could lead to a nuclear exchange.

      Loss of the Fifth Fleet causes external powers to fight over oil resources – this escalates Asian energy conflicts
      Mead ‘7 (Walter, Senior Fellow @ CFR, Wall Street Journal, “Why We’re in the Gulf”, 12-27, http://docs.google.com/View?docid=ah6sxjndq9qq_387kw2kfkm9)

      For the past few centuries, a global economic and political system has been slowly taking shape ….. Bush's invasion of Iraq, will necessarily make the security of the Persian Gulf states one of America's very highest international priorities.

      This causes world war
      Emmott, 8 - former editor of the Economist (Bill,  ‘Power rises in the east,’ The Australian, June 4, pg. l/n

      As well as knitting them, however…. any could involve the major powers: the Sino-Indian border and Tibet, North and South Korea, the East China Sea and the Senkaku-Diaoyutai islands, Taiwan and Pakistan.

      The plan solves - clear U.S. support for a genuine dialogue that includes human rights creates space for political reform
      Aziz and Musalem, 11 - *legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law, holds an M.A. in Middle Eastern studies from the University of Texas AND holds degrees in sociology as well as Middle Eastern language and cultures. Mr. Musalem grew up in Bahrain, where he has conducted social research, and has been a frequent visitor to the county over the past decade (Sahar and Abdullah, “Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement,” http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf)

      The Saudi monarchy watched in horror as one Arab dictator after another was deposed by a population …..lofty ideal; it is in the United States’ national interest.*

      Even if the dialogue fails, the plan signals a change in posture that builds relations with future governments
      Slackman, 11 (Michael, “Dim View of U.S. Posture Toward Bahraini Shiites Is Described,” New York Times, 2/21, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/22/world/middleeast/22bahrain.html?pagewanted=all)

      MANAMA, Bahrain — The United States military undermined ….the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the news media.

      1ac - iraq

      Advantage 2 – Iraq

      Iraq is at a critical turning point – US withdrawal is occurring but the US is negotiating leaving a small training force to make the withdrawal stable.  Iraq will say yes if al-Maliki can maintain Shia support
      New York Times, 9/6/11 (“Plan Would Keep Small Force in Iraq Past Deadline” By ERIC SCHMITT and STEVEN LEE MYERS
      http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/07/world/middleeast/07military.html?_r=1

      Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta is supporting a plan …….Its political system, though democratic, remains riven by sectarian conflicts and crippled by corruption.

      Failure to support democratic reform for Bahrain’s Shiites is enraging the Iraqi Shia – this will collapse US influence and military presence in Iraq and cause a full scale civil war
      Habibi, 11 - Henry J. Leir professor of economics of the Middle East in Brandeis University's Crown Center for Middle East Studies (Nader, “U.S. Silence on Bahrain Crackdown Ignores Iraq Factor,” World Politics Review, 4/25, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8621/u-s-silence-on-bahrain-crackdown-ignores-iraq-factor)

      Current U.S. policy toward Bahrain not only ignores the basic human rights ….., the United States must work toward resolving the crisis by pushing for substantial democratic reform in Bahrain.

      Complete withdrawal eviscerates US credibility entirely – it will make Iraq look like an utter failure and that the US is retreating in weakness
      Ra, 11 - graduate student in International Affairs at Sciences Po Paris (Benjamin, “Iraq, Iraq, Iraq,” Washington Times, 4/10, http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/word-national-interest/2011/apr/10/iraq-iraq-iraq/)

      Three dangerous currents are coinciding today in the Middle East – the destabilization of …..and particularly to those who opposed us, that we came to do good and, in the end, we did good.

      This will trigger preemptive attacks around the globe and risks multiple extinction scenarios
      Gardner, 7  - Professor and Chair of the International Affairs Department of the American University of Paris (Hall, Averting Global War, p. 210-217)

      The confrontation with Iran, for example, creates a scenario in which the memory of past injustices…… seek to take advantage of the U.S. unwillingness to intervene or engage in some form of UN-backed multilateral sanctions that could possibly involve the use of force.

      Maintaining a small US presence lso vital to building the Iraqi air force
      Maginnis, 11- retired Army lieutenant colonel, and a national security and foreign affairs analyst for radio and television (Robert, Human Events, “U.S. Troops Must Stay in Iraq Beyond 2011,” 4/12 http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=42865)

      America must keep some forces in Iraq past the December 2011 deadline …..these complicated systems without American assistance.

      Training for an Iraqi air force deters Israel air strikes on Iran
      Ricks, 10 – senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, and covered the U.S. military for the Washington Post from 2000 through 2008 (Tom, “Will Tehran push Baghdad to re-open the SOFA with the crusaders in 2011? ,” 3/4,
      http://ricks.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/03/04/will_tehran_push_baghdad_to_re_open_the_sofa_with_the_crusaders_in_2011)

      Last night I was reading a very thorough analysis of Iraqi ….a substantial continued U.S. presence, the door for potential Israeli air strikes stays closed. 

      That would cause World War 3
      Ivashov, 7 - analyst at the Strategic Culture Foundation (Leonid, “Iran : the Threat of a Nuclear War”, 4/21,
      http://www.megachip.info/modules.php?name=Sections&op=viewarticle&artid=3871)

      What might cause the force major event of the required scale? …..will be in all respects much more nightmarish than WWII.

      US support for the full inclusion of the Shia in the dialogue and for meaningful democratic reform will prevent Bahrain from escalating anger in Iraq
      Terrill, 8/2/11 – Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute (Andrew, “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World,” http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/The-Arab-Spring-and-the-Future-of-US-Interests/2011/8/2#bahrain)

      The conflict in Bahrain remains serious even after the March 2011 ….this situation may be reparable if strong attention is paid to the needs of Bahraini Shi'ites.



11/11/11
  • 1AC - App State

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

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      ***1ac***

      1ac plan text

      The United States federal government should provide substantial expertise to mediate a high level dialogue between the government of Bahrain and proponents of democratic constitutional reform.

      1ac Shia

      Advantage one is the Shia

       

      US failure to mediate a dialogue over political reform will cause Iranian influence in Bahrain and radicalize Shia regionally

      Al-Ahmed & Jacobs 11 – Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs & Gulf Policy Analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs (Ali & Joshua, “The Crisis in Bahrain” Institute for Gulf Affairs, May 2011, http://www.scribd.com/doc/59873023/Bahrain-Policy-Paper, MCL)

      Analysis and Recommendations for US Policy While it may be possible for the US to exit the crisis without further blemishes.,….

      “out for some of the reformers/moderates in the royal family, and can legitimize the opposition in the wake of the crisis.

       

      The impact is Saudi Iran War

      Shaikh, 11 [3/23/11, Salman Director of the Brookings Institution's Doha Center and Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy Shaikh previously served as the Special Assistant for the Middle East and Asia to the United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs and as an adviser to former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers-Salman Shaikh, http://www.troubledkashmir.com/index.php/world-press-today/615-the-bahrain-crisis-and-its-regional-dangers-salman-shaikh]  

      While US and international attention is focused largely elsewhere in the region, especially Libya, the violent crackdown against protestors…….that King Hamad has previously set and which the mainstream opposition parties are demanding. It is now time to put aside sectarian concerns and deep seated existential fears and get on with the job of achieving this for the future of Bahrain, the Gulf region, and the entire Middle East.

       

      That conflict escalates – and causes Saudi prolif

      Milani, 11 [October, Professor of Politics and Chair of the Department of Government and International Affairs at the University of South Florida in Tampa Professor Milani has written extensively about the Persian Gulf, the Iranian Revolution, and Iran’s foreign and security policies. He served as a research fellow at Harvard University, Oxford University’s St. Antony’s College in England, and the Foscari University in Venice, Italy. Dr. Milani is a frequent speaker at international and national conferences on Iran and the Persian Gulf. He is currently working on a book project about Iran's regional policies.  Foreign Affairs, “Iran and Saudi Arabia Square Off”, Mohsen M, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/136409/mohsen-m-milani/iran-and-saudi-arabia-square-off?page=show]

      Yesterday afternoon, the U.S. government charged Mansoor Arbabsiar, a dual U.S.–Iranian citizen………….. between the two countries and avoid automatically taking sides, the cold war between Iran and Saudi Arabia will push the region away from democracy, ultimately chilling the Arab Spring.

       

      Recent evidence matters – current tensions are unprecedented

      Leigh, 10/13/11 [Karen, writes on West Africa for Time and other publications, and previously covered the Middle East The Saudi-Iran Cold War: Will the Assassination Plot Heat It Up?http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2096764,00.html]

      The crisis was Bahrain's, but the 100 giant army tanks patrolling the island kingdom's capital, Manama, boasted two flags —……………… people there already regard Iran as aggressive and devious, and are predisposed to believe in Iran's strength and have a deep anxiety about [encountering] it."

       

      The conflict draws in regional actors

      London, 10 [president of Hudson Institute and professor emeritus of New York University, Herbert,  “The Coming Crisis In The Middle East,” June 28, 2010, http://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east]

      The coming storm in the Middle East is gaining momentum; like conditions prior to World War Iall it takes………… possible annihilation of Israel and the prospect of a second holocaust could lead to a nuclear exchange.

       

      And, goes global and nuclear

      Gold, 07 [Thomas J., Masters in Strategic Intelligence, Joint Military Intelligence College, Nuclear Conflict in the Middle East: An Analysis of Future Events, p. 53-55]

      If the political, ethnic, and military policies, and future nuclear weapons development in the Middle East continue………… siding with Iran. Escalation to regional or global nuclear war is now a possibility.

       

      High tensions ensure that a war would cause widespread Saudi unrest

      Reuters, 11/9/11 [“FACTBOX - Key political risks to watch in Saudi Arabia”, http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/11/09/idINIndia-60407720111109]

      (Reuters) - The world's leading oil exporter Saudi Arabia faces rising tensions with………… Riyadh suspects Iran of fomenting unrest among the Shi'ite majority in neighbouring Bahrain and attempting to expand its influence throughout the Arab world.

       

      The impact is massive oil Shocks

      Maginnis 11 [Robert, retired Army lieutenant colonel, national security and foreign affairs analyst, "Bahrain's No Egypt", 2/21, Human Events, http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=41912]

      First, Iran would use a Bahrain platform to destabilize neighbor Saudi Arabia by instigating unrest among……… strategic Strait of Hormuz becomes a very dangerous placethrough which half of the world’s seaborne oil shipments pass.

       

      And, oil shocks cause economic collapse

      Babej 11 - Contributor to Forbes [Marc E. Babej, “A Saudi Oil Supply Disruption-The Ultimate Marketing Crisis Scenario,” Forbes, 3/29/2011 @ 01:48PM |pg.  http://www.forbes.com/sites/marcbabej/2011/03/29/a-saudi-oil-supply-disruption-the-ultimate-marketing-crisis-scenario/] 

      * Vance Scott - Partner at A.T. Kearney who leads the Energy and Chemicals Practice in the Americas.

      And still: in 2011, the term “unlikely” doesn’t quite carry the weight it used to. When I asked Scott to describe the impact of……..Companies would try to minimize shipping, rethink their supply chains and increase prices for products containing oil derivatives.

       

      Nuclear war

      O'Donnell, 9 (Sean, Baltimore Republican Examiner, a graduate student at the University of Baltimore studying law and ethics, B.A. in History from the University of Maryland, a Squad Leader in the Marine Corps Reserve, Will this recession lead to World War III?

      February 26, http://www.examiner.com/x-3108-Baltimore-Republican-Examiner~y2009m2d26-Will-this-recession-lead-to-World-War-III#comments)

      Could the current economic crisis affecting this country and the world lead to another world war……… Hopefully the economy gets better before it gets worse and the terrifying possibility of World War III is averted. However sometimes history repeats itself.

       

      The plan engages the Shia and checks Iranian influence

      Cooley and Nexon, 11 – Associate Professor of Political Science at Barnard College and a member of Columbia University's Arnold A. Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies, AND Daniel, Associate Professor in the School of Foreign Service and the Department of Government at Georgetown University (Bahrain's Base Politics, Foreign Affairs, April 5, 2011, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics, MCL)

      Second, Washington needs to avoid thinking about its basing arrangements in terms of a simple………. gain flexibility before the next political crisis hits than be forced to scramble after it is under way.

       

      US support deescalates Shiite resentment regionally

      Terrill, 11 [– Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute (Andrew, “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World,” http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/The-Arab-Spring-and-the-Future-of-US-Interests/2011/8/2#bahrain)]

      The conflict in Bahrain remains serious even after the March 2011 Saudi-led military intervention………. U.S. interests and improved the position of Iran, but this situation may be reparable if strong attention is paid to the needs of Bahraini Shi'ites.

       

       

      1ac fleet advantage

      Advantage two is the fleet

       

      Tensions escalating now – status quo criticism isn’t sufficient

      CNN, 11/4/11 [“Cleric warns of perilous intra-religious strife in Bahrain”, http://www.cnn.com/2011/11/04/world/meast/bahrain-unrest/]

      Manama, Bahrain (CNN) -- The top Shiite cleric in Bahrain warned Friday that intra-religious tensions could intensify……….That said, Obama has been among those openly.

      critical of Bahrain on human rights grounds.

       

      Further crackdowns ensures escalating violence – everyone wants the plan

      Kerr, 11/3/11 [ “Bahrain man’s death raises tensions”, Financial Times, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c3bf616a-0640-11e1-8a16-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1dK529dzL]

      The elderly father of a senior opposition politician in Bahrain died on Thursday after being attacked by riot police…….. harsh measures against Shia protesters, who show no signs of muting their calls for meaningful political reform.

       

      That violence imperils the fifth fleet

      Lippman, 9/22/11 - adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute and former Middle East bureau chief of the Washington Post (Thomas, “ The U.S. Dilemma in Bahrain,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/POMED-Policy-Brief_Lippman.pdf)

      Of the Arab countries in which political unrest has erupted over the past ten months, tiny Bahrain is among the most important……….. another host country could be found, but it may be left with no choice given the current turmoil.

       

      And, uncertainty is sufficient – hostility towards US presence kills deterrence credibility and mid-east power projection

      Noble, 11 [7/21, Stimson Center, “Anchors Away: The future of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain”, http://www.stimson.org/spotlight/the-us-fifth-fleet-in-bahrain/]

      The home base of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet has become a subject of discussion for American policymakers since large-scale………..the neighbors of Bahrain, have an interest in preventing any of these scenarios from materializing.

       

      Only dialogue prevents hardline backlash that severs the security relationship

      Bockenfeld, 10/4/11 [Cole, POMED’s Director of Advocacy and Editor of the POMED Wire blog and the Weekly Wire digest  He has studied the Middle East for more than six years with a focus on U.S. and Middle Eastern politics, history, and the Arabic language at the University of Arkansas, Georgetown University, and Al al-Bayt University in Mafraq, Jordan.  Prior to joining POMED, he worked for the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) on electoral assistance programs in Iraq, Lebanon, Morocco, and the West Bank and Gaza, including fieldwork in Beirut and Baghdad.  He also conducted research with the Center for Islam and Democracy (CSID) in Amman. “Protecting the US-Bahraini relationship”, http://www.commongroundnews.org/article.php id=30471&lan=en&sp=0&isNew=1&partner=rss&emc=rss]

      Washington, DC - The United States has maintained a key security relationship with Bahrain since 1947, demonstrated……….. deliver meaningful reform and accountability, or risk the very scenario both wish to avoid.

       

      Excessive pressure will create fissures in the relationship and collapse deterrence credibility – the plan is the key middle path

      Darling, 11 - an international military markets analyst with Forecast International Inc., an aerospace and defense research company. A graduate of Kansas State University with a degree in history, he specializes in the European and Middle Eastern regions at Forecast (Daniel, “Don’t Expect a Split in the U.S.-Bahrain Relationship,” 2/22, The Faster Times,

      http://www.thefastertimes.com/defensespending/2011/02/22/dont-expect-a-split-in-the-u-s-bahrain-relationship/

       

      It is no surprise, therefore, that tensions have spilled over – much like they promised to do last fall………… control over their kingdoms – and the U.S. is not going to alienate itself from those nations allied to its interests.

       

      Kick out independently collapses US leadership

      Goodspeed, 11 [Peter, award winning reporter for the National Post February 14th, Goodspeed Analysis: Unrest in Bahrain could threaten key U.S. military outpost”, http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/02/14/peter-goodspeed-unrest-in-bahrain-could-threaten-key-u-s-military-outpost/]

      As riot police in Bahrain attacked hundreds of pro-democracy demonstrators Monday with tear gas, rubber bullets and concussion…………….those plans could be swept aside if the political storm raging elsewhere in the Arab world suddenly engulfs the emirate.

       

      Collapses hegemony

      Etzioni, 11 [Director of the Institute for Communitarian Policy Studies, George Wash U. Frmr sociology prof at Columbia PhD in sociology from UC Berkeley Amitai, The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility, March-April 2011, Military Review, http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf]

      As of the beginning of 2011, these Sunni nations, and most others in the Middle East, experienced regime-challenging convulsions……….. United States to discharge what it sees as its global responsibilities and live up to its commitments overseas.

       

      And, global naval power

      Cropsey, 10 Seth, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, former Naval Officer and deputy senior under secretary of the Navy in the administration of Reagan and BushII, "The US Navy in Distress", Strategic Analysis, Vol. 34 No. 1, January, http://www.hudson.org/files/publications/Cropsey_US_Navy_In_Distress.pdf

      American maritime strategy has played a major role in binding together the international system…………….. pace of naval deterioration, and the increasing time and dismayingly large resources needed to recoup seapower surrendered slowly over decades.

       

      Great power war

      Barnett, 11 [Thomas P.M. Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads]

      Events in Libya are a further reminder for Americans that we stand at a crossroads in our continuing…….. And if you know your history, that should make you nervous.          

       

      Plan solves – supporting genuine dialogue creates space for reform

      Aziz and Musalem, 11 – *legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law, holds an M.A. in Middle Eastern studies from the University of Texas AND **holds degrees in sociology as well as Middle Eastern language and cultures. Mr. Musalem grew up in Bahrain, where he has conducted social research, and has been a frequent visitor to the county over the past decade (Sahar and Abdullah, “Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement,” http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf)

       

      Notwithstanding this interventionWashington still wields enormous influence in Bahrain. When the country’s………. Therefore supporting reform in Bahrain and democracy in the Middle East is no longer a lofty ideal; it is in the United States’ national interest……..be sustained through consistent pressure for reform and direct engagement with Bahraini authorities on a regular basis.

       

      Even if dialogue fails, the plan signals a change in posture that builds goodwill with future governments

      Slackman, 11 (Michael, “Dim View of U.S. Posture Toward Bahraini Shiites Is Described,” New York Times, 2/21, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/22/world/middleeast/22bahrain.html?pagewanted=all)

       

      MANAMA, Bahrain — The United States military undermined efforts to improve relations with Bahrain’s Shiite majority

       

      US influence can create a roadmap for a real dialogue – Bahrain will say yes if the US leads the process

      POMED, 11 – Project on Middle East Democracy. Panelists included Joe Stork, Deputy Director of Middle East and North Africa Division, Human Rights Watch; Hans Hogrefe, Chief Policy Officer and Washington Director, Physicians for Human Rights; Leslie Campbell, Senior Associate and Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa, National Democratic Institute; and Ambassador Martin Indyk, Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institution. (Event Summary of “Tensions in the Persian Gulf after the Arab Uprisings: Implications for U.S. Policy”, 6/29, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Tensions_in_the_Persian_Gulf_June_29_20111.pdf

       

      Joe Stork spoke first, providing a historical account of the “deep, deep roots” of the conflict in Bahrain between the ruling family and the population. Stork described Bahrain……..




11/11/11

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