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***1ac***
1ac plan text
The United States federal government should provide substantial expertise to mediate a high level dialogue between the government of Bahrain and proponents of democratic constitutional reform.
1ac Shia
Advantage one is the Shia
US failure to mediate a dialogue over political reform will cause Iranian influence in Bahrain and radicalize Shia regionally
Al-Ahmed & Jacobs 11 – Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs & Gulf Policy Analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs (Ali & Joshua, “The Crisis in Bahrain” Institute for Gulf Affairs, May 2011, http://www.scribd.com/doc/59873023/Bahrain-Policy-Paper, MCL)
Analysis and Recommendations for US Policy While it may be possible for the US to exit the crisis without further blemishes.,….
“out” for some of the reformers/moderates in the royal family, and can legitimize the opposition in the wake of the crisis.
The impact is Saudi Iran War
Shaikh, 11 [3/23/11, Salman Director of the Brookings Institution's Doha Center and Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy Shaikh previously served as the Special Assistant for the Middle East and Asia to the United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs and as an adviser to former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers-Salman Shaikh, http://www.troubledkashmir.com/index.php/world-press-today/615-the-bahrain-crisis-and-its-regional-dangers-salman-shaikh]
While US and international attention is focused largely elsewhere in the region, especially Libya, the violent crackdown against protestors…….that King Hamad has previously set and which the mainstream opposition parties are demanding. It is now time to put aside sectarian concerns and deep seated existential fears and get on with the job of achieving this for the future of Bahrain, the Gulf region, and the entire Middle East.
That conflict escalates – and causes Saudi prolif
Milani, 11 [October, Professor of Politics and Chair of the Department of Government and International Affairs at the University of South Florida in Tampa Professor Milani has written extensively about the Persian Gulf, the Iranian Revolution, and Iran’s foreign and security policies. He served as a research fellow at Harvard University, Oxford University’s St. Antony’s College in England, and the Foscari University in Venice, Italy. Dr. Milani is a frequent speaker at international and national conferences on Iran and the Persian Gulf. He is currently working on a book project about Iran's regional policies. Foreign Affairs, “Iran and Saudi Arabia Square Off”, Mohsen M, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/136409/mohsen-m-milani/iran-and-saudi-arabia-square-off?page=show]
Yesterday afternoon, the U.S. government charged Mansoor Arbabsiar, a dual U.S.–Iranian citizen………….. between the two countries and avoid automatically taking sides, the cold war between Iran and Saudi Arabia will push the region away from democracy, ultimately chilling the Arab Spring.
Recent evidence matters – current tensions are unprecedented
Leigh, 10/13/11 [Karen, writes on West Africa for Time and other publications, and previously covered the Middle East The Saudi-Iran Cold War: Will the Assassination Plot Heat It Up?http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2096764,00.html]
The crisis was Bahrain's, but the 100 giant army tanks patrolling the island kingdom's capital, Manama, boasted two flags —……………… people there already regard Iran as aggressive and devious, and are predisposed to believe in Iran's strength and have a deep anxiety about [encountering] it."
The conflict draws in regional actors
London, 10 [president of Hudson Institute and professor emeritus of New York University, Herbert, “The Coming Crisis In The Middle East,” June 28, 2010, http://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east]
The coming storm in the Middle East is gaining momentum; like conditions prior to World War I, all it takes………… possible annihilation of Israel and the prospect of a second holocaust could lead to a nuclear exchange.
And, goes global and nuclear
Gold, 07 [Thomas J., Masters in Strategic Intelligence, Joint Military Intelligence College, Nuclear Conflict in the Middle East: An Analysis of Future Events, p. 53-55]
If the political, ethnic, and military policies, and future nuclear weapons development in the Middle East continue………… siding with Iran. Escalation to regional or global nuclear war is now a possibility.
High tensions ensure that a war would cause widespread Saudi unrest
Reuters, 11/9/11 [“FACTBOX - Key political risks to watch in Saudi Arabia”, http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/11/09/idINIndia-60407720111109]
(Reuters) - The world's leading oil exporter Saudi Arabia faces rising tensions with………… Riyadh suspects Iran of fomenting unrest among the Shi'ite majority in neighbouring Bahrain and attempting to expand its influence throughout the Arab world.
The impact is massive oil Shocks
Maginnis 11 [Robert, retired Army lieutenant colonel, national security and foreign affairs analyst, "Bahrain's No Egypt", 2/21, Human Events, http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=41912]
First, Iran would use a Bahrain platform to destabilize neighbor Saudi Arabia by instigating unrest among……… strategic Strait of Hormuz becomes a very dangerous place, through which half of the world’s seaborne oil shipments pass.
And, oil shocks cause economic collapse
Babej 11 - Contributor to Forbes [Marc E. Babej, “A Saudi Oil Supply Disruption-The Ultimate Marketing Crisis Scenario,” Forbes, 3/29/2011 @ 01:48PM |pg. http://www.forbes.com/sites/marcbabej/2011/03/29/a-saudi-oil-supply-disruption-the-ultimate-marketing-crisis-scenario/]
* Vance Scott - Partner at A.T. Kearney who leads the Energy and Chemicals Practice in the Americas.
And still: in 2011, the term “unlikely” doesn’t quite carry the weight it used to. When I asked Scott to describe the impact of……..Companies would try to minimize shipping, rethink their supply chains and increase prices for products containing oil derivatives.
Nuclear war
O'Donnell, 9 (Sean, Baltimore Republican Examiner, a graduate student at the University of Baltimore studying law and ethics, B.A. in History from the University of Maryland, a Squad Leader in the Marine Corps Reserve, Will this recession lead to World War III?
February 26, http://www.examiner.com/x-3108-Baltimore-Republican-Examiner~y2009m2d26-Will-this-recession-lead-to-World-War-III#comments)
Could the current economic crisis affecting this country and the world lead to another world war……… Hopefully the economy gets better before it gets worse and the terrifying possibility of World War III is averted. However sometimes history repeats itself.
The plan engages the Shia and checks Iranian influence
Cooley and Nexon, 11 – Associate Professor of Political Science at Barnard College and a member of Columbia University's Arnold A. Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies, AND Daniel, Associate Professor in the School of Foreign Service and the Department of Government at Georgetown University (Bahrain's Base Politics, Foreign Affairs, April 5, 2011, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics, MCL)
Second, Washington needs to avoid thinking about its basing arrangements in terms of a simple………. gain flexibility before the next political crisis hits than be forced to scramble after it is under way.
US support deescalates Shiite resentment regionally
Terrill, 11 [– Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute (Andrew, “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World,” http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/The-Arab-Spring-and-the-Future-of-US-Interests/2011/8/2#bahrain)]
The conflict in Bahrain remains serious even after the March 2011 Saudi-led military intervention………. U.S. interests and improved the position of Iran, but this situation may be reparable if strong attention is paid to the needs of Bahraini Shi'ites.
1ac fleet advantage
Advantage two is the fleet
Tensions escalating now – status quo criticism isn’t sufficient
CNN, 11/4/11 [“Cleric warns of perilous intra-religious strife in Bahrain”, http://www.cnn.com/2011/11/04/world/meast/bahrain-unrest/]
Manama, Bahrain (CNN) -- The top Shiite cleric in Bahrain warned Friday that intra-religious tensions could intensify……….That said, Obama has been among those openly.
critical of Bahrain on human rights grounds.
Further crackdowns ensures escalating violence – everyone wants the plan
Kerr, 11/3/11 [ “Bahrain man’s death raises tensions”, Financial Times, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c3bf616a-0640-11e1-8a16-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1dK529dzL]
The elderly father of a senior opposition politician in Bahrain died on Thursday after being attacked by riot police…….. harsh measures against Shia protesters, who show no signs of muting their calls for meaningful political reform.
That violence imperils the fifth fleet
Lippman, 9/22/11 - adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute and former Middle East bureau chief of the Washington Post (Thomas, “ The U.S. Dilemma in Bahrain,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/POMED-Policy-Brief_Lippman.pdf)
Of the Arab countries in which political unrest has erupted over the past ten months, tiny Bahrain is among the most important……….. another host country could be found, but it may be left with no choice given the current turmoil.
And, uncertainty is sufficient – hostility towards US presence kills deterrence credibility and mid-east power projection
Noble, 11 [7/21, Stimson Center, “Anchors Away: The future of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain”, http://www.stimson.org/spotlight/the-us-fifth-fleet-in-bahrain/]
The home base of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet has become a subject of discussion for American policymakers since large-scale………..the neighbors of Bahrain, have an interest in preventing any of these scenarios from materializing.
Only dialogue prevents hardline backlash that severs the security relationship
Bockenfeld, 10/4/11 [Cole, POMED’s Director of Advocacy and Editor of the POMED Wire blog and the Weekly Wire digest He has studied the Middle East for more than six years with a focus on U.S. and Middle Eastern politics, history, and the Arabic language at the University of Arkansas, Georgetown University, and Al al-Bayt University in Mafraq, Jordan. Prior to joining POMED, he worked for the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) on electoral assistance programs in Iraq, Lebanon, Morocco, and the West Bank and Gaza, including fieldwork in Beirut and Baghdad. He also conducted research with the Center for Islam and Democracy (CSID) in Amman. “Protecting the US-Bahraini relationship”, http://www.commongroundnews.org/article.php id=30471&lan=en&sp=0&isNew=1&partner=rss&emc=rss]
Washington, DC - The United States has maintained a key security relationship with Bahrain since 1947, demonstrated……….. deliver meaningful reform and accountability, or risk the very scenario both wish to avoid.
Excessive pressure will create fissures in the relationship and collapse deterrence credibility – the plan is the key middle path
Darling, 11 - an international military markets analyst with Forecast International Inc., an aerospace and defense research company. A graduate of Kansas State University with a degree in history, he specializes in the European and Middle Eastern regions at Forecast (Daniel, “Don’t Expect a Split in the U.S.-Bahrain Relationship,” 2/22, The Faster Times,
http://www.thefastertimes.com/defensespending/2011/02/22/dont-expect-a-split-in-the-u-s-bahrain-relationship/
It is no surprise, therefore, that tensions have spilled over – much like they promised to do last fall………… control over their kingdoms – and the U.S. is not going to alienate itself from those nations allied to its interests.
Kick out independently collapses US leadership
Goodspeed, 11 [Peter, award winning reporter for the National Post February 14th, Goodspeed Analysis: Unrest in Bahrain could threaten key U.S. military outpost”, http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/02/14/peter-goodspeed-unrest-in-bahrain-could-threaten-key-u-s-military-outpost/]
As riot police in Bahrain attacked hundreds of pro-democracy demonstrators Monday with tear gas, rubber bullets and concussion…………….those plans could be swept aside if the political storm raging elsewhere in the Arab world suddenly engulfs the emirate.
Collapses hegemony
Etzioni, 11 [Director of the Institute for Communitarian Policy Studies, George Wash U. Frmr sociology prof at Columbia PhD in sociology from UC Berkeley Amitai, The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility, March-April 2011, Military Review, http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf]
As of the beginning of 2011, these Sunni nations, and most others in the Middle East, experienced regime-challenging convulsions……….. United States to discharge what it sees as its global responsibilities and live up to its commitments overseas.
And, global naval power
Cropsey, 10 Seth, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, former Naval Officer and deputy senior under secretary of the Navy in the administration of Reagan and BushII, "The US Navy in Distress", Strategic Analysis, Vol. 34 No. 1, January, http://www.hudson.org/files/publications/Cropsey_US_Navy_In_Distress.pdf
American maritime strategy has played a major role in binding together the international system…………….. pace of naval deterioration, and the increasing time and dismayingly large resources needed to recoup seapower surrendered slowly over decades.
Great power war
Barnett, 11 [Thomas P.M. Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads]
Events in Libya are a further reminder for Americans that we stand at a crossroads in our continuing…….. And if you know your history, that should make you nervous.
Plan solves – supporting genuine dialogue creates space for reform
Aziz and Musalem, 11 – *legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law, holds an M.A. in Middle Eastern studies from the University of Texas AND **holds degrees in sociology as well as Middle Eastern language and cultures. Mr. Musalem grew up in Bahrain, where he has conducted social research, and has been a frequent visitor to the county over the past decade (Sahar and Abdullah, “Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement,” http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf)
Notwithstanding this intervention, Washington still wields enormous influence in Bahrain. When the country’s………. Therefore supporting reform in Bahrain and democracy in the Middle East is no longer a lofty ideal; it is in the United States’ national interest……..be sustained through consistent pressure for reform and direct engagement with Bahraini authorities on a regular basis.
Even if dialogue fails, the plan signals a change in posture that builds goodwill with future governments
Slackman, 11 (Michael, “Dim View of U.S. Posture Toward Bahraini Shiites Is Described,” New York Times, 2/21, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/22/world/middleeast/22bahrain.html?pagewanted=all)
MANAMA, Bahrain — The United States military undermined efforts to improve relations with Bahrain’s Shiite majority
US influence can create a roadmap for a real dialogue – Bahrain will say yes if the US leads the process
POMED, 11 – Project on Middle East Democracy. Panelists included Joe Stork, Deputy Director of Middle East and North Africa Division, Human Rights Watch; Hans Hogrefe, Chief Policy Officer and Washington Director, Physicians for Human Rights; Leslie Campbell, Senior Associate and Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa, National Democratic Institute; and Ambassador Martin Indyk, Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institution. (Event Summary of “Tensions in the Persian Gulf after the Arab Uprisings: Implications for U.S. Policy”, 6/29, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Tensions_in_the_Persian_Gulf_June_29_20111.pdf
Joe Stork spoke first, providing a historical account of the “deep, deep roots” of the conflict in Bahrain between the ruling family and the population. Stork described Bahrain……..
