Michigan » Michigan Deming - Pappas Negative

Michigan Deming - Pappas Negative

Last modified by Administrator on 2012/10/17 15:48
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  • Questions/Cite Request Contact

    • Tournament: GSU | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • For neg stuff - kyle.deming7@gmail.com

      For aff stuff, or if I don't get back to you within a couple days - alexanderdpappas@gmail.com




09/26/11
  • Consult Turkey CP

    • Tournament: GSU | Round: 1 | Opponent: Dartmouth DR | Judge: Luppes

    • Consult Turkey 1NC

       

       

      Turkey demands genuine prior consultation over US policy towards Arab democracy – but it will say yes IF the US consults in advance

      Outzen, 11 – rapporteur for a conference, summary of remarks made by Soner Cagaptay, director of the Washington Institute's Turkish Research Program (Eva, “The AKP's Turkey: Asset or Liability for the United States?”, 6/11, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3366

      During the past decade of AKP rule, Ankara's view of its role ...individual U.S. or EU sanctions 

      Genuine consultation over democracy assistance with Turkey is vital to sustaining relations – the plan and permutation treat Turkey as a junior partner

      Carothers and Youngs, 11 - * vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is the founder and director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program AND ** director general of FRIDE. He is also assistant professor at the University of Warwick in the UK (Thomas and Richard, “Looking for Help: Will Rising Democracies Become International Democracy Supporters?”, July, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/Rising_democracies_final.pdf)

      Second, keep an open mind with regard ...controversial cases of authoritarianism in the region.


      1nr consult turkey

      Modifications are essential to solvency- the permutation severs substantive parts of the plan
      J.G. Merrils, Professor of Public Law, University of Sheffield, 1998 (International Dispute Settlement) p. 4
      Consultation  When a government...and Canada in antitrust proceedings.

      Severs “should” – it means “must” and requires immediate legal effect
      Summers 94 (Justice – Oklahoma Supreme Court, “Kelsey v. Dollarsaver Food Warehouse of Durant”, 1994 OK 123, 11-8, http://www.oscn.net/applications/oscn/DeliverDocument.asp?CiteID=20287#marker3fn13)
      ¶4 The legal question...effective in the future [in futurol]. See Van Wyck v. Knevals, 106 U.S. 360, 365, 1 S.Ct. 336, 337, 27 L.Ed. 201 (1882).

      Severs substantially
      Words and Phrases 1964 (40 W&P 759) (this edition of W&P is out of print;  the page number no longer matches up to the current edition and I was unable to find the card in the new edition.  However, this card is also available on google books, Judicial and statutory definitions of words and phrases, Volume 8, p. 7329)
      The words “outward, open...Bass v. Pease, 79 Ill. App. 308, 318.

      Consult K2 U.S. foreign policy debate
      John Ikenberry, professor of politics and international affairs at Princeton, 10-23-2004
      http://www.utexas.edu/lbj/news/fall2004/Ikenberry_article.pdf.
      At the heart of the debate between conservative...diffuse reciprocity each week.

      The counterplan asks one of the core questions in policymaking
      Terry L. Deibel, Professor of National Strategy at the National War College, 10-30-2002
      “Instruments of State Power” http://www.isanet.org/noarchive/deibel.html)
      Strategy in any field of endeavor has ...academic or educational perspective.

      Process is key to education
      Schuck 99 (Peter H., Professor, Yale Law School, and Visiting Professor, New York Law School, Spring (“Delegation and Democracy” – Cardozo Law Review) http://www.constitution.org/ad_state/schuck.htm)
      God and the devil are in the details...correct resolution are highest.

      Turkey will say yes as long as the US continues consultation – it seeks greater democracy in the Arab Spring
      Vershbow, 11 - Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (Alexander, “The US-Turkish Agenda”, 6/23, http://www.mei.edu/TurkishCenter/AnnualConferenceonTurkey/2011/2011Transcripts/KeynoteAddressfromTheHonAlexanderVershbow.aspx)
      Together, we determined we needed...relationship will be how we manage those differences.

      Genuine consultation is vital – the permutation treats Turkey like a junior contractor
      Kirisci, 11- Professor, Bogaziçi University, Department of Political Science and International Relations (Kemal, “Turkey’s “Demonstrative Effect” and the Transformation of the Middle East,” Insight Turkey, April-June, http://www.insightturkey.com/Insight_Turkey_Volume_13_Number_2_2011_Kemal_Kirisci.pdf
      The craving for reform ...for its own democracy too.
       




09/26/11
  • Turkey CP

    • Tournament: UK | Round: 2 | Opponent: Mo State FR | Judge: Gliniecki

    • COUNTERPLAN TEXT: The Government of Turkey should substantially increase in the democracy assistance portions of Turkey’s military training program that promotes civil-military relations is modeled after the United States Expanded-International Military Education and Training programs to Egypt.  Turkey should reform its constitution for greater protection of due process, press freedom, and women and minority rights, and should maintain a parliamentary system of government.

       

      Solves best

      Kirişci, 10 - fellow with the Transatlantic Academy. He is a professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Boğaziçi University, Istanbul and holds a Jean Monnet Chair in European Integration. (Kemal, “Diffusing Liberal Market and Democratic Values: Assessing Turkey's 'Soft Power' in Transforming its Neighborhood,” APSA 2010 Annual Meeting Paper http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1644657) TIKA = Turkish International Cooperation and Development Agency

      One striking aspect of Turkey’s

      looked at civil society with suspicion

      Key to Turkish soft power

      Yilmaz and Kanat, 11 - Nuh Yilmaz is the director of SETA Foundation at Washington, D.C. Kilic Bugra Kanat is a doctoral candidate in Syracuse University's Political Science Department (“Turkish foreign policy after the elections,” 6/21, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/06/21/turkish_foreign_policy_after_the_elections)

       

      In the AKP's next government term

      stature in the foreign-policy realm.

      Turkish soft power is vital to solving Afghanistan

      Dogan, 10 [Salih Doğan is a researcher at the International Strategic Research Organization and the managing editor of the journal Turkish Weekly, “[Opinion] Turkey’s Presence and Importance in Afghanistan”, http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/106578/-opinion-turkey%E2%80%99s-presence-and-importance-in-afghanistan.html]

      Turkey and Afghanistan have always 

      regular Afghans from Taliban militants.

      extinction

      Twining, 9 - Senior Fellow for Asia at the German Marshall Fund of the United States (Dan, “The Stakes of Afghanistan Go Well Beyond Afghanistan”,

      http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/09/30/the_stakes_of_afghanistan_go_well_beyond_afghanistan

       

      As Chris Brose and I recently argued

      nuclear weapons on its border




10/25/11
  • Threaten the SCAF CP

    • Tournament: UK | Round: 2 | Opponent: Mo State FR | Judge: Gliniecki

    • Text: The United States federal government should threaten to immediately terminate all military aid to the government of Egypt unless it agrees to stop crackdowns, adopt democratic reforms and allow a full transition to democracy.

       

      Counterplan solves –  1ac author

      David A. Super, a law professor at Georgetown University, is active in Voices for a Democratic Egypt August 23, 2011 Los Angeles Times “Time for the U.S. to use its influence in Egypt”  http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-super-egypt-20110823,0,5909879.story

      Americans like to think of revolutions

      in the heart of the Arab world.

      Your evidence even says leverage over the generals is key

      Howard Schneider and Greg Jaffe Washington Post Staff Writers January 30, 2011 “A test of Egypt's military and its relations with U.S.” Washington Post http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/29/AR2011012904546.html?sid=ST2011013000187

       

      Egypt's military, built with tens of billions

      ties with a country they need."

      Your 1ac ev says comprehensive security sector reform is key – not the aff –

      William Fisher managed economic development programs for the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development in the Middle East Aug 12th, 2011 The Public Record “Egypt: The Education Of The Generals”

      Comprehensive reform of the security

      unlikely to produce any positive change.




10/25/11
  • Topicality - Assistance tied to Democracy

    • Tournament: UK | Round: 7 | Opponent: Kansas State HZ | Judge: Lucas-Bolin



    • 1nr

      Voting issue for limits
      their interp justifies a litany of affs which provide economic support, governance assistance or any mechanism like dialogue which doesn’t directly provide funding – our interp is vastly more limiting
      Lappin, 10 [Richard, Ph.D. Candidate Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven (Belgium), “Post-Conflict Democracy Assistance: A State of the Art”, Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies, 28(85), http://soc.kuleuven.be/web/files/9/51/Vol85.pdf]
      Such fastidiousness on the boundaries ...democracy assistance can be drawn. 

      Limits outweigh
      Rowland, 84 (Robert C., Debate Coach – Baylor University, “Topic Selection in Debate”, American Forensics in Perspective, Ed. Parson, p. 53-54)
      The first major problem identified ...to cancel their programs. 

      Independently turns solvency – vote neg on presumption
      Lappin, 10 - University of Leuven (Belgium) Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies PhD candidate, participant in democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE, and Carter Center, University of Belgrade political sciences visiting scholar, (Richard, Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, Volume 4 Issue 1, “What we talk about when we talk about democracy assistance: the problem of definition in post-conflict approaches to democratization” http://www.cejiss.org/issue/2010-volume-4-issue-1/lappin)
      By the end of the 1990s...will ultimately be undermined.

      McInerney, 11 - is Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy (Stephen, "The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012 DEMOCRACY, GOVERNANCE, AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST”, July, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf)
      There are a number of specific ...Foundation for the Future (FFF).

      The aff MIGHT result in democracy but it doesn’t directly mandate it – the program their 1ac evidence is talking about is development not assistance -
      Godbole, 11 [New Security Beat, blog about environmental change and policy http://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2011/05/womens-health-and-well-being.html]
      “Ultimately, whether Yemen is able to ...the program’s impact

      At best the aff is human rights  
      USAID, 11 [March, Yemeni Communities Unite Against Child Marriage http://www.usaid.gov/press/frontlines/fl_feb11/FL_feb11_WYemen.html]
      Yemen is one of 20 "hot spot" countries ...Amran governorate starting in 2009.

      That’s not t the concepts are conceptually distinct
      Lerch, 07 [ Marika, former managing editor of International Politics and Society, “The Human Rights dimensions of the European profile in democracy support in democracy europes core value? On the European profile in world wide democracy assistance]
      However, despite significant overlaps...democratic politics and political structures.

      Democracy assistance should be considered all aid for which the primary purpose, not the secondary purpose or indirect purpose, is to foster democracy in the recipient countries - including indirect aid explodes the topic. Just because the USAID calls development programs democracy assistance does not make them so.
      Lappin, 10 - University of Leuven (Belgium) Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies PhD candidate, participant in democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE, and Carter Center, University of Belgrade political sciences visiting scholar, (Richard, Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, Volume 4 Issue 1, “What we talk about when we talk about democracy assistance: the problem of definition in post-conflict approaches to democratization” http://www.cejiss.org/issue/2010-volume-4-issue-1/lappin)
      Establishing the definitional clarity ...assistance can be drawn.

      Budget categories make the topic bidirectional – some programs work directly counter to democracy despite the classification
      Burnell, 2k - Department of International Studies, University of Warwick (Peter, Democracy assistance: international co-operation for democratization, p. 13)
      At the end of the day our estimates ...of competing policy goals.

      The aff’s not topical – it isn’t a transfer of resources and isn’t directly tied to democracy
      Lappin, 10 [Richard, Ph.D. Candidate Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven (Belgium), “Post-Conflict Democracy Assistance: A State of the Art”, Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies, 28(85), http://soc.kuleuven.be/web/files/9/51/Vol85.pdf]
      Democracy assistance can be most accurately
      democracy promotion paradigm.

      Limits, which are key to clash and in depth education  tying democracy assistance explicitly to direct support of democracy is key to a stable limit on the topic
      Burnell, 2k [Peter J., Professor of Politics and International Studies University of Warwick, “Democracy Assistance: International Co-operation for Democratization”, p. 12-13]
      Democracy Assistance and Democracy's Conditions
      Democratization may be served best...answers to questions such as these.



10/02/11
  • Payroll Tax Politics

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Payroll tax break will pass now --- but capital is key

      Jackson 10-14
      (David,- writer for USA Today “Obama, GOP push competing jobs plans”)
      Look for President Obama and ….. working from vastly different talking points.


      [Link]

      Payroll tax cut portion of Jobs Bill needed to avert economic shock that will tip US back into a second recession
      Washington Post, 9-8-11, p. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/just-how-effective-is-the-payroll-tax-cut/2011/09/08/gIQAodirCK_blog.html
      President Obama …….. the payroll tax cut won’t boost the economy further, the argument goes, it will at least avert further degradation.

      2.  A double dip recession would be much worse than the first and trigger an economic depression
      CNN Money, 8-10-11, p. http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/10/news/economy/double_dip_recession_economy/index.htm
      Another recession ……… no policy effort to counteract it.’’

      Extinction

      Austin ‘09
      (Michael, Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute, and Desmond Lachman, Resident Fellow – American Enterprise Institute, “The Global Economy Unravels”, Forbes, 3-6, http://www.aei.org/article/100187)
      Conversely, global policymakers do ……. explosions that coalesce into a big bang.



      Capital Key 2NC

      Obama’ capital is key to breaking partisan deadlocks and forging consensus, key to passage --- that’s Jackson

      Capital is key --- passage isn’t guaranteed
      [Note: In Will Pass 2NC]
      Globe and Mail, 10-12, 11, http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/americas/out-of-work-americans-are-the-real-losers-in-jobs-bill-spat/article2198835/

      But, of course, Mr. Obama already ………. in the Senate. But even that is no slam dunk.  

      He has to keep pushing

      Mali 10-13
      (Meghashyam,- writer for the Hill “Van Hollen: Keep 'plugging away' on jobs bill”)
      Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) the senior Democrat on the House Budget Committee said President Obama’s jobs proposals had the public's support and Democrats needed to continue “plugging away” to pass individual elements of the bill. “We have to keep …….ll of these are common sense.”

      More ev --- Capital is key

      IHT ’11
      (August 11, 2011 Long-term recovery puts Obama's short term at risk; News Analysis, p. 6)
      If Mr. Black's take is correct and ……. two to tango,'' said Dan Pfeiffer, the White House director of communications.  


      Will Pass 2NC


      Payroll tax cut will pass now --- Obama push and momentum, but politics could derail it --- that’s Jackson. Prefer our ev --- it’s specific to the payroll tax cut and is predictive.


      More evidence it’ll pass ---

      Overcomes other jobs fights

      Lompoc Record 10-14
      (“Looking back to see ahead” http://www.lompocrecord.com/news/opinion/editorial/looking-back-to-see-ahead/article_77514ac6-f639-11e0-8371-001cc4c002e0.html)
      The White House and . aging infrastructure.

      Obama push

      All Voices, 10-12
      (http://www.allvoices.com/contributed-news/10591202-jobs-bill-fails-to-pass-the-senate-democrats-propose-new-strategy)
      Sen. Charles Schumer (D., N……… a chance of bipartisan support.

      GOP support

      Roll Call 10-12, 11, http://www.rollcall.com/issues/57_41/Democrats-Split-Over-Next-Step-on-Jobs-Bill-209420-1.html
      McConnell declined to say …….. weak and needs a lift,” he said.

      More ev --- but capital is key

      Globe and Mail, 10-12, 11, http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/americas/out-of-work-americans-are-the-real-losers-in-jobs-bill-spat/article2198835/

      But, of course, Mr. Obama ……….. But even that is no slam dunk.  

      Piecemeal approach is effective now

      The Vindicator 10-13
      (“Defeat of Obama’s jobs bill opens door to new strategy,” http://www.vindy.com/news/2011/oct/13/defeat-of-obama8217s-jobs-bill-opens-doo/, bgm)
      Defeat of Obama’s jobs bill ……… such an investment is a waste of money.

      Republicans not able to stop Obama yet

      Medved 10-12
      (Michael,- Columnist, Townhall.com “What is Barack Obama's Long Term Game on Taxes?)
      But in off the record …….. that break in 2013?

      Prospects are good

      Rowley 10-13
      (Laura,- “3 Ways to Make the Most of Obama's Proposed Payroll Tax Cut”
      Although the Senate on Tuesday ………. could put hundreds of dollars in the pockets of employees.




      Yes Obama Push

      Yes Obama Push

      Reuters 10-13
      (“Bold action on jobs needed now: Obama aide Sperling”)
      (Reuters) - The case for bold ……… back into a recession, he said. U.S. growth slowed sharply in the second quarter and nearly flat-lined in the first. Obama has said he may break up the bill to push it through Congress. Some elements that might be salvaged in another form, include extensions of a payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits.


      More ev

      Superville 10-12
      (Darlene,- writer for the Huffington Post)
      A day after Senate ….. contributions to American history.



      Ext – Capital Key





      A2: Uniqueness Overwhelms


      Uniqueness doesn’t overwhelm
      [Note: In Will Pass 2NC]
      Globe and Mail, 10-12, 11, http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/americas/out-of-work-americans-are-the-real-losers-in-jobs-bill-spat/article2198835/

      But, of course, Mr. Obama …….. in the Senate. But even that is no slam dunk.  



      ---A2: Thumpers
      A2: Thumpers (Jobs Spec)



      Obama won’t get dragged into anything else

      Superville 10-12
      (Darlene,- writer for the Huffington Post)
      A day after Senate Republicans blocked ….. by the White House recognizing Latino contributions to American history.


      Other issues are irrelevant --- Obama solely focused on jobs bill now

      Kuhnhenn 10-11
      (Jim,- AP writer “Obama's Jobs Council: Infrastructure Improvements Top List Of Priorities”)
      WASHINGTON -- Decrying the ……… industry - both have long complained about government bureaucratic delays and regulatory red tape.



      Nothing else drains capital --- not a final vote, their thumpers are just background noise  

      Drum ‘10  
      (Kevin, Political Blogger, Mother Jones, former contributing writer for the WASHINGTON MONTHLY http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2010/03/immigration-coming-back-burner)
      Not to pick on Ezra or anything, but … bill. Then all hell broke loose. The same thing will happen this time, and without even a John McCain to act as a conservative point man for a moderate solution. The political environment is worse now than it was in 2007, and I'll be very surprised if it's possible to make any serious progress on immigration reform. "Love 'em or hate 'em," says Ezra, illegal immigrants "aren't at the forefront of people's minds." Maybe not. But they will be soon.


      1NC Jackson ev says Obama’s capital is key infrastructure spending --- checks terrorism

      Flynn and Burke ’11
      (Flynn is President, Center for National Policy, Washington, D.C., and Chair of the Steering Committee for the Community Resilience System Initiative of the Community and Regional Resilience Institute, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Burke is Vice President and Senior Fellow at the Center for National Policy)
      U.S. policy makers and elected …….. value that the system could provide in supporting rapid mobilization and urban evacuation.

      Impact is global war --- mitigation is key

      Schwartz-Morgan ‘01
      (Nicole, Assistant Prof Politics and Econ – Royal Military College of Canada, Wild Globalization and Terrorism, http://www.wfs.org/mmmorgan.htm)
      The terrorist act can reactivate ….. the conflict, whether they be themselves merchants or terrorists.


      Infrastructure investment deters terrorism

      Flynn and Burke ’11
      (Flynn is President, Center for National Policy, Washington, D.C., and Chair of the Steering Committee for the Community Resilience System Initiative of the Community and Regional Resilience Institute, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Burke is Vice President and Senior Fellow at the Center for National Policy)
      Resilience in response to ……… civil and economic space instead of in conventional military spaces.

      Legislative success depletes capital – doesn’t increase it
       Purdum, 12/20 – Award winning journalist who spent 23 years with the NY Times (12/20/10, Todd S., Vanity Affair, “Obama Is Suffering Because of His Achievements, Not Despite Them,” http://www.vanityfair.com/online/daily/2010/12/obama-is-suffering-because-of-his-achievements-not-despite-them.html)

      With this weekend’s decisive ……….. outspokenly critical of business as usual by both parties in Washington).

      Political capital is limited – controversies burn capital
       Gerson, 12/17 (Michael, 12/17/10, Washington Post, “When it comes to politics, Obama's ego keeps getting in the way,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/16/AR2010121604039.html)

      In some areas - …….. popularity is squandered - something the Obama administration has often done.

      Political capital is finite – focus is key
       Francis, 12/16 – a Washington, DC-based public affairs and political consultant. He once served as chief of staff to then Representative Norman Y. Mineta (D-CA) and as Deputy Assistant and Deputy White House Chief of Staff to President Jimmy Carter (12/16/10, Les, “Top Dem: White House Needs Fresh Blood,” http://www.frumforum.com/top-dem-white-house-needs-fresh-blood, JMP)

      Next, the President and his ……….. So narrow it. And focus, focus, focus!


      Plan drains capital
       Richter ‘11
      (Paul,- staff writer for the LA times “Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition” 4-12)
      Reporting from Washington — The Obama administration's efforts to use foreign aid to help Middle East and North African nations undergoing democratic transitions have been stopped short by a Congress focused on paring federal debt and other spending priorities. The …….. there just doesn't seem to be the will to address it."
      Increasing democracy assistance will have strong domestic opposition
       Cordesman, 11 - Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS. (Anthony, “Shaping and Communicating US Plans for the Future in a Time of Region-Wide Change and Instability,” 4/14, http://csis.org/publication/us-strategy-gulf

       The US will have to rebalance ……..measures are over.

      Democracy assistance drains capital --- budget fights outweigh

      Arnold ’11
      (David,- Horn of Africa chief @ VOA News 8-11, lexis)
      "You don't have to be an experienced Congress ……," said Sumka.

      Jobs bill DA cites  -  - Georgia State


      Jobs bill will pass, political capital key

      US News & World Report, 9/12/11,  http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2011/09/12/will-congress-pass-obamas-jobs-bill

      Thursday evening, President Obama ...in response to Thursday's speech.  

      Plan burns political capital

      Arnold ’11 (David,- Horn of Africa chief @ VOA News 8-11, lexis)

      "You don't have to be an ...reason to be optimistic," said Sumka.  

      No jobs stimulus means economic collapse and global nuclear war

      Norman Orenstein, American Enterprise Institute, Roll Call, September 14, 2011 Deficit Panel Could Change Economic World

      Of course, the temptation ...- and a solution is there for the taking.

      Jobs Bill - 2nc





      Will pass – assumes Republican n/us

      San Angelo Standard-Times (Texas)m 9/14, 2011, p. 4

      Obama may be down in the polls ...a temporary tax cut as a forbidden tax increase.  

      Politically well-crafted bill likely to pass

      San Angelo Standard-Times (Texas)m 9/14, p. 4

      Speaking from the White House Rose Garden on Monday ...work together with the White House.  

      Jobs bill at the top of the docket

      Salon, 9-5, 11, http://www.salon.com/wires/politics/09/05/D9PID8CO2_us_congress_returns/ DOA

      Still bruised by the summer battle over the debt...be at the top of the agenda.

      Immediate action must be taken to stimulate the economy

      HEATHER BOUSHEY, SENIOR ECONOMIST AFFILIATION: CENTER FOR AMERICAN PROGRESS ACTION FUND, CQ Congressional Testimony, September 13, 2011, http://www.americanprogressaction.org/issues/2011/09/boushey_testimony.html

      Over the past few months,...but rather focus on boosting employment.

      Unemployment reduces US economic leadership

      Gary Burtless, Senior Fellow, Economic Studies, Brookings Institution, September 2, 2011, How to Invest in US Employment, http://www.cfr.org/economics/invest-us-employment/p25746?cid=rss-fullfeed-how_to_invest_in_u.s._employme-090211&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+cfr_main+%28CFR.org+-+Main+Site+Feed%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher  DOA: 9/5/11

      The economy is getting better...middle class Americans were improving.




10/18/11
  • High Oil Prices Good

    • Tournament: GSU | Round: 4 | Opponent: North Texas QS | Judge: Gliniecki

    • \\


    • Middle East instability keeps oil prices high because of volatility risk – that causes a successful transition to renewables
      NAFTC 3-23-2011;  National Alternative Fuels Training Consortium Middle East Instability and Oil Woes: Rising Gas Prices Increase Focus on Alternative Fuels http://naftcenews.wvu.edu/naftc_enews/2011/03/23/middle-east-instability-and-oil-woes--rising-gas-prices-increase-focus-on-alternative-fuels
      A decade ago, oil cost about $10 ...beginning of this.”

      Renewables transition solves warming
      Douglas J. Arent et al, 11-11-2010; Alison Wise, Rachel Gelman;  Arent and Gelman, National Renewable Energy Laboratory; Wise, Ecotech Institute in Denver, CO;  “The status and prospects of renewable energy for combating global warming” Energy Economics 33 (2011) 584–593, Science Direct
      Reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas ...energy requirements and lower GHG emissions. 

      Warming causes extinction
      Sify 2010 – Sydney newspaper citing Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, professor at University of Queensland and Director of the Global Change Institute, and John Bruno, associate professor of Marine Science at UNC; Sify News, “Could unbridled climate changes lead to human extinction?”, http://www.sify.com/news/could-unbridled-climate-changes-lead-to-human-extinction-news-international-kgtrOhdaahc.html
      The findings of the comprehensive ...findings were published in Science.
      Sustained prices ensure development that permanently lowers costs – the risk premium is key to short-term transition
      IBT International Business Times 5-30-2011 Why lower Saudi oil prices kill alternative energy http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/154524/20110530/saudi-arabia-oil.htm
      On the other hand, if oil skyrockets ...alternative energy sources. 

      Oil supply shock would have a driving effect
      Richard Matthews, 5-15-2011; regular contributor to more than 50 publications including The Green Economy Post and Environmental News Network  High Oil Prices Stimulate Renewable Energy http://www.solarfeeds.com/the-green-market-blog/16879-high-oil-prices-stimulate-renewable-energy
      Higher oil prices stimulate ...reacts to higher oil prices. 

      High prices cause bandwagoning that drives expectations toward renewables
      Jim Woods, 5-26-2011; Stocks & Markets Writer for Investment Place Are Alternative Energy Stocks Fueled by Expensive Oil? http://www.investorplace.com/43083/crude-oil-prices-alternative-energy-stocks/
      Every time crude oil ...and Broadwind Energy (NASDAQ: BWEN).

      Warming is a try or die existential threat
      Jeffrey Mazo, March 2010 – PhD Paleoclimatology from UCLA, Managing Editor, Survival, Research Fellow for Environmental Security and Science Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, 3-2010, “Climate Conflict: How global warming threatens security and what to do about it,” p 122
      The best estimates for global warming...social, cultural and political changes.

      Comparatively outweighs every impact
      Curtis Doebbler, 7-13-2011, prominent international law and human rights attorney, citing Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change findings; “Two threats to our existence”. Al-Ahram Weekly. July 2011. http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1055/envrnmnt.htm
      Climate change is widely acknowledged...They continue in this vein.

      And warming outweighs nuclear war – 

      certainty
      J. Hanson et al, 2007;  Goddard Institute for Space Studies,  M. Sato2, R. Ruedy3, P. Kharecha2, A. Lacis1,4, R. Miller1,5, L. Nazarenko2, K. Lo3, G. A. Schmidt1,4, G. Russell1, I. Aleinov2, S. Bauer2, E. Baum6, B. Cairns5, V. Canuto1, M. Chandler2, Y. Cheng3, A. Cohen6, A. Del Genio1,4, G. Faluvegi2, E. Fleming7, A. Friend8, T. Hall1,5, C. Jackman7, J. Jonas2, M. Kelley8, N. Y. Kiang1, D. Koch2,9, G. Labow7, J. Lerner2, S. Menon10, T. Novakov10, V. Oinas3, Ja. Perlwitz5, Ju. Perlwitz2, D. Rind1,4, A. Romanou1,4, R. Schmunk3, D. Shindell1,4, P. Stone11, S. Sun1,11, D. Streets12, N. Tausnev3, D. Thresher4, N. Unger2, M. Yao3, and S. Zhang2 1NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA 2Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY, USA 3Sigma Space Partners LLC, New York, NY, USA 4Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA 5Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA 6Clean Air Task Force, Boston, MA, USA 7NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA 8Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Orme des Merisiers, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, France 9Department of Geology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA 10Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA 11Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA 12Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, USA;  “Dangerous human-made interference with climate,” http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/7/2287/2007/acp-7-2287-2007.pdf
      These stark conclusions about the threat posed by global climate...scientific evidence of the danger. 

      magnitude
      Robert Hunter, 2003; co-founder of Greenpeace,  Thermageddon: Countdown to 2030, p. 58-59
      Even though, from the beginning, Rachel Carson...making the final crew list, Dexter.

      irreversibility
      Alan Dunpont, 2008 Professor of International Security at U-Sydney, Jun, “The Strategic Implications of Climate Change,” Survival, Volume 50, Issue 3
      War has customarily been considered...more difficult to reverse or repair.

      Warming is real and happening now—overwhelming scientific consensus
      Clement 6/14/11 (Megan, editor of the Conversation, an Australian Education News Site, “Climate change is real: an open letter from the scientific community
      ,” http://theconversation.edu.au/climate-change-is-real-an-open-letter-from-the-scientific-community-1808, AM) *Clement didn’t write the article—it’s written by the signatories in the bottom 2/3 of the card.
      The overwhelming scientific …and Planetary Sciences, Macquarie University.

      Newest climate models prove anthropogenic warming from co2
      Andy Soos, 8-30-2010; Environmental News Network editor, Global Warming and Climate Models http://oilprice.com/Environment/Global-Warming/Global-Warming-and-Climate-Models.html
      Climate models use various methods to simulate…global warming at 2 degrees Celsius.

      High oil prices key to dollar hegemony – forces capital investment in the US
      Stratfor, 1/8/2008. “Annual Forecast 2008,” web.stratfor.com/images/writers/STRATFOR_Annual_1_08.pdf.
      Quietly developing in the background...true foundation of the entire system. 

      Dollar hegemony is key to overall US hegemony and prevents currency status shift
      Robert Looney, November 2003. Professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School. “From Petrodollars to Petroeuros: Are the Dollar's Days as an International Reserve Currency Drawing to an End?” Strategic Insights, 2.11, http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/si/nov03/middleEast.asp.
      Political power and prestige...available alternative to the dollar.[12]



10/19/11
  • Saudi Relations DA

    • Tournament: GSU | Round: 1 | Opponent: Dartmouth DR | Judge: Luppes

    • ((( (% class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;" %)Saudi Arabia DA - 1nc ))) ((( ))) ((( (% class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;" %)American Arab Spring policies have put Saudi Arabia on edge—additional support for democracy ensures backlash ))) ((( (% class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;" %)Hanna 2011 — fellow and program officer at The Century Foundation, former senior fellow at the International Human Rights Law Institute, term-member of the Council on Foreign Relations (3/8, Michael Wahid, World Politics Review, “Saudi Arabia: Royal Succession, Regional Turmoil”, http:~/~/www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8120/saudi-arabia-royal-succession-regional-turmoil, WEA) ))) ((( (% class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;" %)The kingdom's current defensive posture ...its authority to determine royal succession. ))) ((( (% class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;" %)The result is alliance collapse ))) ((( (% class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;" %)Takeyh 2011 — PhD from Oxford, Adjunct professor, Center for Peace and Security Studies, Georgetown University, Senior adviser to special adviser for Gulf and Southwest Asia, Department of State, Professor of National Security Studies, National War College, Fellow in International Security Studies, Yale University (6/8, Ray, New York Times, “A Post-American Day Dawns in the Mideast”, http:~/~/www.nytimes.com/2011/06/09/opinion/09iht-edtakeyh09.html?_r=2, WEA) ))) ((( (% class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;" %)For nearly 60 years, Saudi Arabia predicated...seriously contemplated in the House of Saud. ))) ((( (% class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;" %)Making Saudis doubt our commitment spurs nuclearization—reassurance now is key ))) ((( (% class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;" %)Rozen 2011 – the chief foreign policy reporter for Politico, quoting Patrick Clawson, a Persian Gulf expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and Marc Lynch, a Middle East expert at George Washington University (4/18, Laura, Yahoo News, “Arab spring setbacks in the shadow of complicated U.S.-Saudi alliance”, http:~/~/news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_theenvoy/20110418/ts_yblog_theenvoy/optimism-for-arab-spring-fades-in-face-of-complicated-u-s-saudi-alliance, WEA) ))) ((( (% class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;" %)Riyadh, alarmed by the Obama...they are accused of being Iranian agents." ))) ((( (% class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;" %)Saudi nuclearization ensures rapid prolif and multiple nuclear war scenarios ))) ((( (% class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;" %)Edelman et al 2011 – *Distinguished Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments; he was U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, ~*~*President of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, ~*~**Research Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (Eric S. Edelman, Andrew Krepinevich, Evan Montgomery, Foreign Affairs, “The dangers of a nuclear Iran”, http:~/~/www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67162/eric-s-edelman-andrew-f-krepinevich-jr-and-evan-braden-montgomer/the-dangers-of-a-nuclear-iran) ))) ((( (% class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;" %)There is, however, at least one ...with unpredictable consequences. 2nc a2 prolif k \\Specific concerns are more important than prolif rhetoric Mutimer 2000 (David, PhD in political science and professor in York University, “The Weapons State,” p.23-24) Clearly, such a conception of understanding...whether that is sight, touch, or smell. \\Branding all our claims as Orientalist is epistemologically bankrupt Warraq 3—renowned Islamic critic. Studied philosophy and Arabic, U Edinburgh (Ibn, Orientalism, 29 September 2003, WSJ, http:~/~/www.campus-watch.org/article/id/799) Those truths aside, Mr. Said, who died last week,...Western salons, and Western applause. \\Their epistemology claims are wrong—our authors are capable of making non-racist assumptions—they link to all of their knowledge production claims and re-entrench Orientalism. Teitelbaum 6 — Senior Fellow, Moshe Dayan Center for Middle East and African Studies, Tel Aviv U. Adjunct Senior Lecturer, Middle Eastern History, Bar Ilan U. PhD, Tel Aviv U—AND—Meir Litvak—Senior Research Fellow, Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies. Associate Professor, Middle Eastern and African History, Tel Aviv U. PhD, Harvard (Joshua, Students, Teachers, and Edward Said: Taking Stock of Orientalism, March 2006, http:~/~/www.campus-watch.org/article/id/2493) The critics did not deny that ...true of the past as well, despite Said's critique. Topical action – the perm means the whole plan is conditional which means the aff could advocate any non-topical minor modification or even the status quo\\ )))




10/25/11
  • a2 Schmitt

    • Tournament: GSU | Round: 1 | Opponent: Dartmouth DR | Judge: Luppes

    • 1nc/2nc liberalism good Liberalism is good – solves extinction Barnett, 11 [Thomas P.M. Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 http:~/~/www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads] Events in Libya are a further ...that should make you nervous. \\Schmitt precludes the possibility of just enemies – the alt leads to total war Moreiras, 04 – Director of European Studies at Duke, (Alberto, 2004, “A God without Sovereignty. Political Jouissance. The Passive Decision”, CR: The New Centennial Review 4.3, p. 82-83, Project MUSE) But the scandal gets worse...Total war is an absolute threat. \\Schmitt lacks an empirical basis ~-~-- the alt results in warfare Brown 07 – Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science (Chris, “The International Political Thought of Carl Schmitt: Terror, Liberal War, and the Crisis of Global Order” 2007, Fellow in International Relations at the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London, and also teaches Inter- national Relations at the University ‘L’Orientale’ in Naples, Italy p. 67) Schmitt’s normative position is impossible ...resort to force might be justified.\\




10/25/11
  • skfta politics

    • Tournament: gsu | Round: 6 | Opponent: MSU LR | Judge: Morris

    • (% class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;" %)SKFTA - 1NC ((( (% class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;" %)SKFTA will pass ~-~-- capital is key ))) ((( (% class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;" %)Palmer 9-1 (Doug,- Reuters journalist http:~/~/www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/02/us-usa-obama-trade-idUSTRE7814CZ20110902) ))) ((( (% class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;" %)This month business groups expect...trade agreements without TAA," said Trumka. ))) ((( (% class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;" %)Key to U.S. leadership in Asia ))) ((( (% class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;" %)Wharton School at U Penn, 1/12 (Knowledge at Wharton, “U.S.-South Korea Trade Pact: A Turning Point for American Exports?” 1/12/11, http:~/~/knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2671, JMP) ))) ((( (% class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;" %)What's more, the fate of the pact has national security implications...put his reputation on the line." ))) ((( (% class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;" %)Impact is global hegemony, rapid Japan remilitarization, Taiwan conflict and instability in India-Pakistan and Korea ))) ((( (% class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;" %)Goh, 8 – Lecturer in International Relations in the Department of Politics and International Relations at the Univ of Oxford (Evelyn, International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, “Hierarchy and the role of the United States in the East Asian security order,” 2008 8(3):353-377, Oxford Journals Database, JMP) ))) ((( (% class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;" %)The centrality of these mutual processes of...so would appear to be much worse. ))) ((( (% class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;" %)This causes great power nuclear conflict. ))) ((( (% class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;" %)Gray, 05 – Professor of International Politics and Strategic Studies, and Director of the Center for Strategic Studies, at the University of Reading (Spring 2005, Colin S., Parameters, “How Has War Changed Since the End of the Cold War?” http:~/~/www.carlisle.army. mil/usawc/parameters/05spring/gray.htm) ))) ((( (% class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px;" %)6. Interstate War, Down but Far from Out Logically...for war: “fear, honor, and interest.”23 )))




10/25/11
  • EPA Disad

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • = 1nc disad = (% class="MsoNormal" %) **EPA stripping __isn’t passing now__** (% class="MsoNormal" %) **Graves, 11** (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)[Lucia, Huffington Post, “War On The EPA: Republican Bills Would Erase Decades Of Protection”, 10/9, [[http:~~/~~/www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/09/epa-republican-war-defund_n_1000664.html>>http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/09/epa-republican-war-defund_n_1000664.html]]] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)WASHINGTON ~-~- America's (%%)__……..__(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) stop them. The White House also has promised vetoes of the measures. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) **__Fiat__ means that EPA __stripping legislation__ is attached to the plan** (% class="MsoNormal" %) **Graves, 11** (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)[Lucia, Huffington Post, “War On The EPA: Republican Bills Would Erase Decades Of Protection”, 10/9, [[http:~~/~~/www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/09/epa-republican-war-defund_n_1000664.html>>http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/09/epa-republican-war-defund_n_1000664.html]]] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Still, once (% style="border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0in; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)__anti-EPA legislation__(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) ….(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)__ that will not go away, and likely could __(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow; border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0in" %)__pick up steam__(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) ~-~- especially if Republicans take back the Senate in 2012. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) **Impact is warming** (% class="MsoNormal" %) **Parenti, 10** (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)[Christian (% class="Heading2Char" style="font-size: 8pt; font-weight: normal;" %)Parenti(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)**,** writer for the Nation, NPR, “The Nation: The Case for EPA Action] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)On April 1 the Environmental Protection ……… or letting the administration dither away its responsibility to act boldly would be a disaster. (% class="IntenseEmphasis" style="font-size: 10pt; border: medium none; border: medium none" %)The EPA is our (% class="Boxout" style="font-size: 10pt; border: medium none; border: medium none" %)last(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %), best (% class="Boxout" style="font-size: 10pt; border: medium none; border: medium none" %)hope(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none;" %)** ** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)**Extinction** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)**Sify** 20**10** – Sydney newspaper citing Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, professor at University of Queensland and Director of the Global Change Institute, and John Bruno, associate professor of Marine Science at UNC; Sify News, “Could unbridled climate changes lead to human extinction?”, http:~/~/www.sify.com/news/could-unbridled-climate-changes-lead-to-human-extinction-news-international-kgtrOhdaahc.html (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="font-size: 8pt;" %)The findings of the comprehensive ….. findings were published in Science. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none;" %)




10/25/11
0
  • Round Reports

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • ===== (% class="Underline" %)Neg: Michigan DP(%%) ===== ===== (% class="Underline" %)Round #3 Tournament: Shirley(%%) ===== ===== (% class="Underline" %)Vs Team: Iowa CK(%%) ===== ===== (% class="Underline" %)Judge: Glinecki(%%) ===== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== (% class="Underline" %)Off Case Argsemoticon_unhappy%%) ====== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Russia DA (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)QIZ CP (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Condition on Women’s Rights (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Payroll Tax Cuts Politics (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Turkey CP w/Soft Power NB (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== (% class="Underline" %)Case Argsemoticon_unhappy%%) ====== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Oil DA (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== (% class="Underline" %)Block Strategyemoticon_unhappy%%) ====== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)2nc: Russia, QIZ, Case (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)1nr: Condition CP (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== (% class="Underline" %)2nr Strategyemoticon_unhappy%%) ====== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Russia, QIZ, Case ===== (% class="Underline" %)Neg: Michigan PD(%%) ===== ===== (% class="Underline" %)Round # 1 Tournament: Shirley(%%) ===== ===== (% class="Underline" %)Vs Team: Augustan FH(%%) ===== ===== (% class="Underline" %)Judge: Kelly Young(%%) ===== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== (% class="Underline" %)Off Case Argsemoticon_unhappy%%) ====== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" lang="FR" %)Pressure CP (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" lang="FR" %)EU Forum CP (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" lang="FR" %)Jackson – Vanik politics DA (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)T- Tied to Democracy (Lappin) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Framwork (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== (% class="Underline" %)Case Argsemoticon_unhappy%%) ====== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Social media movements bad (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Internet assistance fails (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Movements fail (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Extinction out weighs structural violence (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== (% class="Underline" %)Block Strategyemoticon_unhappy%%) ====== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)2NC: pressure CP, EU forum CP, Case (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)1NR: Framework, Politics (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== (% class="Underline" %)2nr Strategyemoticon_unhappy%%) ====== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Pressure CP and Politics




11/11/11
  • Bahrain Neg

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Sorry to whoever asked me for this yesterday. totally forgot.

      -- pappas

      11/14/11

      1nc disad (2)

       

      Current US Bahrain policy is a concession to Saudi Arabia that makes up for prior US bad acts – maintaining the status quo is necessary damage control to protect relations
      Jha, 11 - studied economics at Presidency College, Calcutta, and Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. He writes and researches on global energy issues and clean energy development in Asia (Saurav, World Politics Review, “Saudi-Iranian Tensions Widening Into Sunni-Shiite Cold War,” 4/29, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8681/saudi-iranian-tensions-widening-into-sunni-shiite-cold-war)
      The move to overthrow the ……. of Washington's regional allies, including the Israelis and Saudis, prefer to the potential alternatives in a post-Assad Syria vulnerable to Islamist militants. 

       

      The plan is fatal to US-Saudi relations

      International Crisis Group, 11 (“POPULAR PROTEST IN NORTH AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST (VIII): BAHRAIN’S ROCKY ROAD TO REFORM,” 7/28, http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Bahrain/111-%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20VII%20-%20%20Bahrains%20Rocky%20Road%20to%20Reform.pdf

      Following on the heels of the Tunisian and ………. of opposition movements in Libya and Syria, but not in Bahrain.

       

      Impact is Saudi Prolif

      Rozen 2011 – the chief foreign policy reporter for Politico, quoting Patrick Clawson, a Persian Gulf expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and Marc Lynch, a Middle East expert at George Washington University (4/18, Laura, Yahoo News, “Arab spring setbacks in the shadow of complicated U.S.-Saudi alliance”, http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_theenvoy/20110418/ts_yblog_theenvoy/optimism-for-arab-spring-fades-in-face-of-complicated-u-s-saudi-alliance, WEA)

      Riyadh, alarmed by the ……. Iranian agents."

       

      Global nuclear war

      Edelman et al 2011 – *Distinguished Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments; he was U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, **President of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, ***Research Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (Eric S. Edelman, Andrew Krepinevich, Evan Montgomery, Foreign Affairs, “The dangers of a nuclear Iran”, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67162/eric-s-edelman-andrew-f-krepinevich-jr-and-evan-braden-montgomer/the-dangers-of-a-nuclear-iran)

      There is, however, at .. any adversary. The ability of existing nuclear powers and other technically advanced military states to shape the emerging nuclear competition in the Middle East could lead to a new Great Game, with unpredictable consequences.

      1nc counterplan (1)

       

      The United States federal government should inform the government of Bahrain that unless it

      --- support democratic constitutional reform

      --terminates the crackdown

      --- And includes all relevant parties in a high level dialogue

      That it will terminate Bahrain’s status as a major non-NATO ally.  The United States federal government should terminate Bahrain’s status as a major non-NATO ally upon thirty days unless the government complies.

       

      The threat of termination solves the case – avoids the politics disad

      Dietz, 11 – writes for the Mideaster, a daily digest of news on the Middle East, also traveled to Bahrain to interview dissidents (David, The Mideaster, “Should the US Reconsider its Relationship with Bahrain?,” 4/21, http://themideaster.com/2011/04/21/should-the-us-reconsider-its-relationship-with-bahrain/)

       

      Nevertheless America must ……… threaten to suspend the Naval treaty, however such threats would be as hollow as Obama’s current concern.

       

      Too late—the failure of past dialogue means that future ones necessarily fail

      Katzman, 11 – Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, Congressional Research Service (Kenneth, 8/3. “Bahrain: Reform, Security, and U.S. Policy.” CRS Report. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/95-1013.pdf)

       

      Protests that erupted in Bahrain …….withdrew from it.

       

       

      They don’t get dialogue participants out of jail—kind of an issue

      Dorsey, 11 – senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (James M., 8/13. “What to do About Bahrain? A Headache For Both Obama and Blatter,” http://mideastposts.com/2011/08/13/what-to-do-about-bahrain-a-headache-for-both-obama-and-blatter/)

       

      The crackdown and the government’s insistence that .. but is credited for some of the prisoner releases.

      Leaders won’t take us seriously

      Northam, 11 – Foreign Affairs correspondent for NPR news (Jackie, 5/22. Bahrain Crackdown Puts Pressure On U.S. Diplomacy.” http://www.npr.org/2011/05/22/136507091/bahrain-crackdown-puts-pressure-on-u-s-diplomacy)

       

      While public criticism of …….. even if the president of the United States denounces them, that's not the first thing they're going to respond to," he says.

       

       Protestors only settle for regime change

      Diwan, 11Assistant Professor of Comparative and Regional Studies at the School of International Service at American University (Kristin, “Bahrain’s Shia Question” Foreign Affairs, 3/2, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67555/kristin-smith-diwan/bahrains-shia-question

       

      The outbreak of the Arab revolutions …… fell the regime.

       

      The aff is dead in the water—dialogue fails, protestors can’t be mollified, Bahrain says no, past attempts prove, leaders are corrupt, Saudis block reform, and even trying to reach “middle ground” ends the Saudi alliance and turns the Fifth Fleet

      Ottaway 2011 – PhD from Columbia, Gulf analyst at Carnegie (4/4, Marina, Carnegie Endowment, “Bahrain: Between the United States and Saudi Arabia”, carnegieendowment.org/2011/04/04/bahrain-between-united-states-and-saudi-arabia/t8#, WEA)

       

      From Constitutional Monarchy ……… should take precedence right now. 

       

      Nayef’s appointment tanks the aff—he has power and won’t allow moderate demands.  This also proves our relations link

      Kinninmont 11/3/2011 – Senior Research Fellow on the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, a UK-based policy research institute (Jane, Foreign Policy, “Keeping it in the family”, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/11/03/keeping_it_in_the_family_for_saudi_succession, WEA)

      As interior minister, Prince ……… of view of a senior Saudi prince such as Nayef, poised to take the crown prince title.

      1nc fleet

      No internal link to broader heg impacts

      Dawn 11 "Mideast unrest puts US military access in jeopardy" 2/19 www.dawn.com/2011/02/19/mideast-unrest-puts-us-military-access-in-jeopardy.html

       

      Former officials say ……. think tank.

       

      Hegemony doesn’t solve war – lacks any empirical substantiation, regional agreements solve

      Preble, 10 (8/3/10 Christopher Preble, director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, taught history at St. Cloud State University and Temple University, was a commissioned officer in the U.S. Navy, Ph.D. in history from Temple University. “U.S. ………, and in the security of their respective regions.

       

      They cite bad reports based on old intel—the reality is we might have considered moving, but the important decisionmakers never did and never will

      UPI 2011 (7/22, “U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet to stay put”, http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2011/07/22/US-Navys-5th-Fleet-to-stay-put/UPI-72621311348915/)

       

      WASHINGTON, July 22 (UPI…….. the Huffington Post on condition of anonymity that the report didn't reflect the views of the Pentagon or the State Department.

       

      This is important—their sources should be rejected

      Toumi 2011, Habib, MA  Mass Communications, University of Leicester, “US Navy dismisses reports it is moving out of Bahrain,” http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/bahrain/us-navy-dismisses-reports-it-is-moving-out-of-bahrain-1.841519)

       

      Manama: The US Navy has denied , that the Fifth Fleet, a key component of US military power in the Gulf, has little desire to move.

       

      Their impacts prove removal unnecessary

      AFP 2011 (2/24, “US lawmaker: US Fleet can stay in Bahrain”, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hY2GLFk3vuuSWqhClRRMBYufdeJg?docId=CNG.0e409dafc18367e33fb3689dce6ce4ac.561)

       

      WASHINGTON — A US lawmaker visiting Bahrain amid an 11-…….

       

      Qatar and UAE check

      Glaser 2011 – reporter for Antiwar (7/20, John, “US navy’s fifth fleet could abandon Bahrain”, http://inthesenewtimes.com/2011/07/21/us-navy%E2%80%99s-fifth-fleet-could-abandon-bahrain/, WEA)

       

      The U.S. Navy is considering m………

       

       

      Bahrain not key

      Barzegar 11 [Kayhan,  Faculty Member, Department of International Relations, Science and Research University, Tehran, Iran, Former Associate, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program, 2010–2011; Former Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/international Security Program, 2007–2010,  "Iran's Interests and Values and the 'Arab Spring'" 4-20 -- http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/20954/irans_interests_and_values_and_the_arab_spring.html]

       

      Iran will not initiate any ..

       

      Saudi Arabia-Iran conflict all hype- won’t significantly escalate

      Ranj Alaaldin, Senior analyst at the Next Century Foundation and is doing a doctorate on the Shias of Iraq at the London School of Economics and Political Science, The Guardian, “Yemen's proxy war that isn't”, December 10, 2009, p. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/dec/10/yemen-proxy-war-saudi-arabia

      The conflict in Yemen initially ………. with the Yemeni state's crackdown on both the rebels and Shia culture and identity.

       

      No impact to Iran-Saudi Arabia confrontations

      Frida Ghitis, Independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor, World Politics Review, “World Citizen: Saudi Arabia and Iran Face Off in Yemen”, November 26, 2009, p. ….. their own, escalating beyond the calculated wishes of political leaders.

       

      Saudi Arabia-Iran tensions won’t escalate to war

      Alireza Nourizadeh, European Expert of Iranian nationality, “Experts: Iran- Arab countries politics not to escalate into war”, Iran Economy News, April 21, 2011, p. Lexis

      Previously, the Cooperation Council of Arab Gulf States has accused Iran of fomenting unrests in Kuwait and Bahrain. Iran also condemned Saudi Arabia for its interference in the internal affairs of Bahrain.
       Saudi Arabia's intervention in ……….. in the internal affairs of the Arab countries
      ," he added.

       

       

      War in Asia is highly unlikely—regional stability concerns are being settled and alliance structures check

      Desker and Bitzinger 2008 – *Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, **Dean of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies and Director of the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (Richard and Barry, Survival 50:6, "Why East Asian War is Unlikely", pages 105-28, EBSCO, WEA)

      The Asia-Pacific region can be ….. economic, social and cultural development, and to the promotion of regional peace and stability. ASEAN has played a key role in conceiving and establishing broader regional institutions such as the East Asian Summit, ASEAN+3 (China, Japan and South Korea) and the ASEAN Regional Forum. All this suggests that war in Asia – while not inconceivable – is unlikely.

       

       

      Iran’s tepid reaction to Bahrain proves they won’t do anything—survival impulse trumps ideology

      Kabalan 8/6/2011 – political science professor at Damascus University (Marwan, “Writer says Iran's "pragmatism" explains reaction to intervention in Bahrain”, http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Newsfeed/Article/134573379/201108060856/Writer-says-Irans-pragmatism-explains-reaction-to-intervention-in-Bahrain.aspx)

       

      To the surprise of many... within the context of this pragmatism.

       

      The Crown Prince isn’t actually a reformer

      Kenner, 11 (David, “Bahrain's crown prince: Not a fan of democracy,” 2/18,

      http://wikileaks.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/18/bahrains_crown_prince_not_a_fan_of_democracy)

       

      With the growing chaos on the ……. not exactly the message protesters are hoping to hear from their leaders.

       

      Multiple alt causes for sectarian divide – plan doesn’t change institutional discrimination

      International Crisis Group 5/6 ("Popular Protests in North Africa and the Middle East (III): The Bahrainian Revolt" MENA Report, http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Bahrain/105-%20Popular%20Protests%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20-III-The%20Bahrain%20Revolt.pdf)

       

      As Shiites see it, discrimination ……. Iranian Revolution.

       

      Don’t evaluate their terrorism impact—the combined probability is insanely low

      Schneidmiller 9 (Chris, Experts Debate Threat of Nuclear, Biological Terrorism, 13 January 2009, http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_20090113_7105.php, AMiles)

      ……… build a weapon or use one that has been stolen.

       

      No risk of India-Pakistan war

      Mutti 9 – over a decade of expertise covering on South Asia geopolitics, Contributing Editor to Demockracy journal (James, 1/5, Mumbai Misperceptions: War is Not Imminent, http://demockracy.com/four-reasons-why-the-mumbai-attacks-wont-result-in-a-nuclear-war/)

       

      Writer Amitav Ghosh divined a crucial connection ……. face of the attacks and is using its regional influence to bring more diplomatic pressure on Pakistan.

       

       

      1nc counterplan (1)

      The Government of Turkey should expand its engagement with groups in Bahrain to facilitate broader distribution of access to political benefits.

      Turkey should reform its constitution to create greater protection of due process, press freedom, and women and minority rights, and should maintain a parliamentary system of government.

       

      Solves ---

      A) Fleet – because it maintains stability

      B) Democracy – creates the basis for its existence

      Kirişci, 10 - fellow with the Transatlantic Academy. He is a professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Boğaziçi University, Istanbul and holds a Jean Monnet Chair in European Integration. (Kemal, “Diffusing Liberal Market and Democratic Values: Assessing Turkey's 'Soft Power' in Transforming its Neighborhood,” APSA 2010 Annual Meeting Paper http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1644657) TIKA = Turkish International Cooperation and Development Agency

      One striking aspect of Turkey’s ………. in Turkey that once looked at civil society with suspicion.

       

      CP is key to Turkish soft power –

      CSM, 11 (Editorial, “Outsourcing democracy promotion,” 6/16, http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/the-monitors-view/2011/0616/Outsourcing-democracy-promotion)

       

      Turkey joined a unique club of leaders this ……… the region's people finally find the freedoms they have long sought.

       

      Turns the case

      Ayoob, 11 - University Distinguished Professor of International Relations at Michigan State University (Mohammed, Middle East Policy, Summer, “BEYOND THE DEMOCRATIC WAVE: A TURKO-PERSIAN FUTURE?,” proquest)

       

      Soft power is much more ………. the concert of powers that dominate international security and economic structures. Furthermore, the perception that these are the only two countries/regimes in the Middle East able to challenge what is widely seen in the region as Israel's predatory behavior adds to their popularity among Arab and Muslim publics.

      1nc democracy advantage

      1. Democracy doesn’t solve war ---

      a) Empirics

      Ferguson, professor of history @ Harvard, 6

      the First Balkan War, "shows that we still haven't crawled out on all fours from the barbaric stage of our history

      Abanes 8 (Menandro, 8/29, pg. http://www.monitor.upeace.org/archive.cfm?id_article=540)

      Perhaps the most fundamental question that .. out of the Hobbesian state of nature.

       

      2. Your internal link is about democratic credibility --- alt causes

      a) Tunisia – failing now

      Prince, 11 [May 13th, Rob Prince is the publisher of the Colorado Progressive Jewish News. “Has Tunisia's March Towards Democracy Been Halted in Its Tracks?”, http://www.fpif.org/blog/has_tunisias_march_towards_democracy_been_halted_in_its_tracks]

      Some are asking: Has Tunisia’s march ………. 'pour cash crouttes et ashrah dinars' (for a few crumbs of bread and 10 dinars) During the recent four days of demonstrations in Tunis, a lot of damage to property and cars took place. The demonstrators insist it is not they who turned violent, but provocateurs.

       

      Turns solvency

      Rubin, 8/28/11 [ Philadelphia Inquirer, “Worldview: Don't forget Tunisia, where democracy has a better chance to work”, http://articles.philly.com/2011-08-28/news/29938479_1_mohamed-bouazizi-ben-ali-tunisian-economy/2]

      While the media are ………., and the Tunisian example lit up the entire Arab world.

       

       b) Egypt –

      cred low now

      Obama’s credibility on Egypt is low now

      Dune and Kagan, 11 [June 4th, The writers, senior associates at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, are members of the nonpartisan Working Group on Egypt, a consortium of policy experts from Carnegie, the Council on Foreign Relations, Human Rights Watch, the Center for American Progress, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, the Foreign Policy Initiative and Freedom House. Obama needs to support Egyptians as well as Mubarak http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/03/AR2010060303935.html]

      A year later, Egyptians are scratching ………… in that part of the world, such a commitment would be the kind of "new beginning" the Egyptian people seek.

       

      Outweighs

      Diamond, 11 [Larry, Fellow Hoover Foundation, Democracy Promotion and the Obama Doctrinehttp://www.cfr.org/us-strategy-and-politics/democracy-promotion-obama-doctrine/p24621]

      Do you see Egypt as a lynchpin for ………….. Because the region has not had one for most of its history.

       

      Not key to global democracy

      1nc solvency (1)

      1. The plan doesn’t resolve the protestor’s demands for regime change

      Katzman, 11 – Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, Congressional Research Service (Kenneth, 8/3. “Bahrain: Reform, Security, and U.S. Policy.” CRS Report. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/95-1013.pdf)

      Protests that erupted in Bahrain following the uprising that overthrew Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak on February 11, 2011, demonstrate that Shiite grievances over the distribution of power and economic opportunities were not satisfied by relatively limited ……… on July 18, 2011 when the largest Shiite opposition group withdrew from it.

       

      And, that comparatively outweighs their internal link

      Diwan, 11Assistant Professor of Comparative and Regional Studies at the School of International Service at American University (Kristin, “Bahrain’s Shia Question” Foreign Affairs, 3/2, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67555/kristin-smith-diwan/bahrains-shia-question

      The outbreak of the Arab revolutions ……….

       

      2. Won’t listen to the united states – no influence

      Northam, 11 – Foreign Affairs correspondent for NPR news (Jackie, 5/22. Bahrain Crackdown Puts Pressure On U.S. Diplomacy.” http://www.npr.org/2011/05/22/136507091/bahrain-crackdown-puts-pressure-on-u-s-diplomacy)

      While public criticism of ….

       

      3. The Khalifa regime says no

      Smith, 11 - is a visiting fellow at Hudson Institute (Lee, “The Bahrain Crack-Up,” 8/10,

      http://www.eurasiareview.com/the-bahrain-crack-up-oped-10082011/

      …….. more American friends than a government whose allies threaten U.S. diplomats.

       

      And, Even if they say yes, Saudis will overrule

      Al-Tamimi 6/19 – intern for the Middle East Forum (Aymenn Jawad, "Bahrain: Can the U.S. Do Anything?" The American Thinker, http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/06/bahrain_can_the_us_do_anything.html)

       

      But here is the catch: Saudi Arabia, which is leading the ………… giving rise to true dialogue and reform. Too often, the U.S. is assumed to be the decisive player in crises like the Bahraini uprising.  On the contrary, the real power to change the course of events lies in the hands of the Saudis and the GCC.

       

      4. Protestors are in jail – takes out the aff

      Dorsey, 11 – senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (James M., 8/13. “What to do About Bahrain? A Headache For Both Obama and Blatter,” http://mideastposts.com/2011/08/13/what-to-do-about-bahrain-a-headache-for-both-obama-and-blatter/)

       

      The crackdown and the government’s insistence that Iran had instigated the protests aided by a Shiite fifth column transformed the situation into one of sectarian tension. To be sure, there was violence on both sides of the sectarian and political divide during the protests but healing of the wounds is likely to prove difficult if …….. for some of the prisoner releases.

      5. Bahrain is corrupt and will engage in sham reforms – sends a signal which kills us credibility

      Ottaway 2011 – PhD from Columbia, Gulf analyst at Carnegie (4/4, Marina, Carnegie Endowment, “Bahrain: Between the United States and Saudi Arabia”, carnegieendowment.org/2011/04/04/bahrain-between-united-states-and-saudi-arabia/t8#, WEA)

      From Constitutional Monarchy to ………… Saudi Arabia should take precedence right now. 

       

      1. Their evidence says that Arab Spring generally creates basing tension – not the plan

      COOLEY AND NEXON ‘11 (Alexander, Assoc Prof Poli Sci at Barnard College and member of Colombia University’s Institute for War and Peace Studies; Daniel, Assoc Prof School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown, “Bahrain’s Base Politics: The Arab Spring and America’s Military Bases,” Foreign Affairs, April 5, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show#%29

      Washington's balancing act reflects more than the ……. allies are vulnerable.

       

      Uzbekistan proves no spillover

      COOLEY AND NEXON ‘11 (Alexander, Assoc Prof Poli Sci at Barnard College and member of Colombia University’s Institute for War and Peace Studies; Daniel, Assoc Prof School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown, “Bahrain’s Base Politics: The Arab Spring and America’s Military Bases,” Foreign Affairs, April 5, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show#%29

      Further complicating base politics are ……… to throw its autocratic friends under the bus.

       

      Your author admits economic benefits are key not the aff

      COOLEY AND NEXON ‘11 (Alexander, Assoc Prof Poli Sci at Barnard College and member of Colombia University’s Institute for War and Peace Studies; Daniel, Assoc Prof School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown, “Bahrain’s Base Politics: The Arab Spring and America’s Military Bases,” Foreign Affairs, April 5, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show#%29

      It is time for U.S. officials to ………. family. At the same time, Washington needs to signal that it believes that both countries' interests are best served by greater political liberalization.

      2. Hegemony doesn’t solve war – lacks any empirical substantiation, regional agreements solve

      Preble, 10 (8/3/10 Christopher Preble, director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, taught history at St. Cloud State University and Temple University, was a commissioned officer in the U.S. Navy, Ph.D. in history from Temple University. “U.S. Military Power: Preeminence for What Purpose?” 8/3/10) http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/u-s-military-power-preeminence-for-what-purpose/)

      Most in Washington still ……… of their respective regions.

       

      3. No kickout –

      UPI 2011 (7/22, “U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet to stay put”, http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2011/07/22/US-Navys-5th-Fleet-to-stay-put/UPI-72621311348915/)

      WASHINGTON, July 22 (UPI) -- The U.S. State Department denied reports that the U.S. Navy was considering removing the 5th Fleet from its port in Bahrain.

      U.S. and regional …….. condition of anonymity that the report didn't reflect the views of the Pentagon or the State Department.

       

      4. even instability wont kick us out

      AFP 2011 (2/24, “US lawmaker: US Fleet can stay in Bahrain”, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hY2GLFk3vuuSWqhClRRMBYufdeJg?docId=CNG.0e409dafc18367e33fb3689dce6ce4ac.561)

       

      WASHINGTON — A US lawmaker visiting …… seen no evidence: The traffic is flowing freely, I was looking for no additional police and saw none, and certainly no military equipment," said Wilson.

       

      5. Qatar and UAE check

      Glaser 2011 – reporter for Antiwar (7/20, John, “US navy’s fifth fleet could abandon Bahrain”, http://inthesenewtimes.com/2011/07/21/us-navy%E2%80%99s-fifth-fleet-could-abandon-bahrain/, WEA)

       

      The U.S. Navy is considering ….. military forces in the region, with 40 vessels and close to 30,000 personnel.

       

      Bahrain not key

      Barzegar 11 [Kayhan,  Faculty Member, Department of International Relations, Science and Research University, Tehran, Iran, Former Associate, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program, 2010–2011; Former Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/international Security Program, 2007–2010,  "Iran's Interests and Values and the 'Arab Spring'" 4-20 -- http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/20954/irans_interests_and_values_and_the_arab_spring.html]

       

      Iran will not initiate any ……. continued presence in the Persian Gulf.




11/14/11
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