Sorry to whoever asked me for this yesterday. totally forgot.
-- pappas
11/14/11
1nc disad (2)
Current US Bahrain policy is a concession to Saudi Arabia that makes up for prior US bad acts – maintaining the status quo is necessary damage control to protect relations
Jha, 11 - studied economics at Presidency College, Calcutta, and Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. He writes and researches on global energy issues and clean energy development in Asia (Saurav, World Politics Review, “Saudi-Iranian Tensions Widening Into Sunni-Shiite Cold War,” 4/29, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8681/saudi-iranian-tensions-widening-into-sunni-shiite-cold-war)
The move to overthrow the ……. of Washington's regional allies, including the Israelis and Saudis, prefer to the potential alternatives in a post-Assad Syria vulnerable to Islamist militants.
The plan is fatal to US-Saudi relations
International Crisis Group, 11 (“POPULAR PROTEST IN NORTH AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST (VIII): BAHRAIN’S ROCKY ROAD TO REFORM,” 7/28, http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Bahrain/111-%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20VII%20-%20%20Bahrains%20Rocky%20Road%20to%20Reform.pdf
Following on the heels of the Tunisian and ………. of opposition movements in Libya and Syria, but not in Bahrain.
Impact is Saudi Prolif
Rozen 2011 – the chief foreign policy reporter for Politico, quoting Patrick Clawson, a Persian Gulf expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and Marc Lynch, a Middle East expert at George Washington University (4/18, Laura, Yahoo News, “Arab spring setbacks in the shadow of complicated U.S.-Saudi alliance”, http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_theenvoy/20110418/ts_yblog_theenvoy/optimism-for-arab-spring-fades-in-face-of-complicated-u-s-saudi-alliance, WEA)
Riyadh, alarmed by the ……. Iranian agents."
Global nuclear war
Edelman et al 2011 – *Distinguished Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments; he was U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, **President of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, ***Research Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (Eric S. Edelman, Andrew Krepinevich, Evan Montgomery, Foreign Affairs, “The dangers of a nuclear Iran”, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67162/eric-s-edelman-andrew-f-krepinevich-jr-and-evan-braden-montgomer/the-dangers-of-a-nuclear-iran)
There is, however, at .. any adversary. The ability of existing nuclear powers and other technically advanced military states to shape the emerging nuclear competition in the Middle East could lead to a new Great Game, with unpredictable consequences.
1nc counterplan (1)
The United States federal government should inform the government of Bahrain that unless it
--- support democratic constitutional reform
--terminates the crackdown
--- And includes all relevant parties in a high level dialogue
That it will terminate Bahrain’s status as a major non-NATO ally. The United States federal government should terminate Bahrain’s status as a major non-NATO ally upon thirty days unless the government complies.
The threat of termination solves the case – avoids the politics disad
Dietz, 11 – writes for the Mideaster, a daily digest of news on the Middle East, also traveled to Bahrain to interview dissidents (David, The Mideaster, “Should the US Reconsider its Relationship with Bahrain?,” 4/21, http://themideaster.com/2011/04/21/should-the-us-reconsider-its-relationship-with-bahrain/)
Nevertheless America must ……… threaten to suspend the Naval treaty, however such threats would be as hollow as Obama’s current concern.
Too late—the failure of past dialogue means that future ones necessarily fail
Katzman, 11 – Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, Congressional Research Service (Kenneth, 8/3. “Bahrain: Reform, Security, and U.S. Policy.” CRS Report. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/95-1013.pdf)
Protests that erupted in Bahrain …….withdrew from it.
They don’t get dialogue participants out of jail—kind of an issue
Dorsey, 11 – senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (James M., 8/13. “What to do About Bahrain? A Headache For Both Obama and Blatter,” http://mideastposts.com/2011/08/13/what-to-do-about-bahrain-a-headache-for-both-obama-and-blatter/)
The crackdown and the government’s insistence that .. but is credited for some of the prisoner releases.
Leaders won’t take us seriously
Northam, 11 – Foreign Affairs correspondent for NPR news (Jackie, 5/22. “Bahrain Crackdown Puts Pressure On U.S. Diplomacy.” http://www.npr.org/2011/05/22/136507091/bahrain-crackdown-puts-pressure-on-u-s-diplomacy)
While public criticism of …….. even if the president of the United States denounces them, that's not the first thing they're going to respond to," he says.
Protestors only settle for regime change
Diwan, 11 – Assistant Professor of Comparative and Regional Studies at the School of International Service at American University (Kristin, “Bahrain’s Shia Question” Foreign Affairs, 3/2, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67555/kristin-smith-diwan/bahrains-shia-question
The outbreak of the Arab revolutions …… fell the regime.
The aff is dead in the water—dialogue fails, protestors can’t be mollified, Bahrain says no, past attempts prove, leaders are corrupt, Saudis block reform, and even trying to reach “middle ground” ends the Saudi alliance and turns the Fifth Fleet
Ottaway 2011 – PhD from Columbia, Gulf analyst at Carnegie (4/4, Marina, Carnegie Endowment, “Bahrain: Between the United States and Saudi Arabia”, carnegieendowment.org/2011/04/04/bahrain-between-united-states-and-saudi-arabia/t8#, WEA)
From Constitutional Monarchy ……… should take precedence right now.
Nayef’s appointment tanks the aff—he has power and won’t allow moderate demands. This also proves our relations link
Kinninmont 11/3/2011 – Senior Research Fellow on the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, a UK-based policy research institute (Jane, Foreign Policy, “Keeping it in the family”, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/11/03/keeping_it_in_the_family_for_saudi_succession, WEA)
As interior minister, Prince ……… of view of a senior Saudi prince such as Nayef, poised to take the crown prince title.
1nc fleet
No internal link to broader heg impacts
Dawn 11 "Mideast unrest puts US military access in jeopardy" 2/19 www.dawn.com/2011/02/19/mideast-unrest-puts-us-military-access-in-jeopardy.html
Former officials say ……. think tank.
Hegemony doesn’t solve war – lacks any empirical substantiation, regional agreements solve
Preble, 10 (8/3/10 Christopher Preble, director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, taught history at St. Cloud State University and Temple University, was a commissioned officer in the U.S. Navy, Ph.D. in history from Temple University. “U.S. ………, and in the security of their respective regions.
They cite bad reports based on old intel—the reality is we might have considered moving, but the important decisionmakers never did and never will
UPI 2011 (7/22, “U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet to stay put”, http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2011/07/22/US-Navys-5th-Fleet-to-stay-put/UPI-72621311348915/)
WASHINGTON, July 22 (UPI…….. the Huffington Post on condition of anonymity that the report didn't reflect the views of the Pentagon or the State Department.
This is important—their sources should be rejected
Toumi 2011, Habib, MA Mass Communications, University of Leicester, “US Navy dismisses reports it is moving out of Bahrain,” http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/bahrain/us-navy-dismisses-reports-it-is-moving-out-of-bahrain-1.841519)
Manama: The US Navy has denied , that the Fifth Fleet, a key component of US military power in the Gulf, has little desire to move.
Their impacts prove removal unnecessary
AFP 2011 (2/24, “US lawmaker: US Fleet can stay in Bahrain”, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hY2GLFk3vuuSWqhClRRMBYufdeJg?docId=CNG.0e409dafc18367e33fb3689dce6ce4ac.561)
WASHINGTON — A US lawmaker visiting Bahrain amid an 11-…….
Qatar and UAE check
Glaser 2011 – reporter for Antiwar (7/20, John, “US navy’s fifth fleet could abandon Bahrain”, http://inthesenewtimes.com/2011/07/21/us-navy%E2%80%99s-fifth-fleet-could-abandon-bahrain/, WEA)
The U.S. Navy is considering m………
Bahrain not key
Barzegar 11 [Kayhan, Faculty Member, Department of International Relations, Science and Research University, Tehran, Iran, Former Associate, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program, 2010–2011; Former Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/international Security Program, 2007–2010, "Iran's Interests and Values and the 'Arab Spring'" 4-20 -- http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/20954/irans_interests_and_values_and_the_arab_spring.html]
Iran will not initiate any ..
Saudi Arabia-Iran conflict all hype- won’t significantly escalate
Ranj Alaaldin, Senior analyst at the Next Century Foundation and is doing a doctorate on the Shias of Iraq at the London School of Economics and Political Science, The Guardian, “Yemen's proxy war that isn't”, December 10, 2009, p. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/dec/10/yemen-proxy-war-saudi-arabia
The conflict in Yemen initially ………. with the Yemeni state's crackdown on both the rebels and Shia culture and identity.
No impact to Iran-Saudi Arabia confrontations
Frida Ghitis, Independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor, World Politics Review, “World Citizen: Saudi Arabia and Iran Face Off in Yemen”, November 26, 2009, p. …….. their own, escalating beyond the calculated wishes of political leaders.
Saudi Arabia-Iran tensions won’t escalate to war
Alireza Nourizadeh, European Expert of Iranian nationality, “Experts: Iran- Arab countries politics not to escalate into war”, Iran Economy News, April 21, 2011, p. Lexis
Previously, the Cooperation Council of Arab Gulf States has accused Iran of fomenting unrests in Kuwait and Bahrain. Iran also condemned Saudi Arabia for its interference in the internal affairs of Bahrain.
Saudi Arabia's intervention in ……….. in the internal affairs of the Arab countries," he added.
War in Asia is highly unlikely—regional stability concerns are being settled and alliance structures check
Desker and Bitzinger 2008 – *Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, **Dean of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies and Director of the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (Richard and Barry, Survival 50:6, "Why East Asian War is Unlikely", pages 105-28, EBSCO, WEA)
The Asia-Pacific region can be ….. economic, social and cultural development, and to the promotion of regional peace and stability. ASEAN has played a key role in conceiving and establishing broader regional institutions such as the East Asian Summit, ASEAN+3 (China, Japan and South Korea) and the ASEAN Regional Forum. All this suggests that war in Asia – while not inconceivable – is unlikely.
Iran’s tepid reaction to Bahrain proves they won’t do anything—survival impulse trumps ideology
Kabalan 8/6/2011 – political science professor at Damascus University (Marwan, “Writer says Iran's "pragmatism" explains reaction to intervention in Bahrain”, http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Newsfeed/Article/134573379/201108060856/Writer-says-Irans-pragmatism-explains-reaction-to-intervention-in-Bahrain.aspx)
To the surprise of many.., . within the context of this pragmatism.
The Crown Prince isn’t actually a reformer
Kenner, 11 (David, “Bahrain's crown prince: Not a fan of democracy,” 2/18,
http://wikileaks.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/18/bahrains_crown_prince_not_a_fan_of_democracy)
With the growing chaos on the ……. not exactly the message protesters are hoping to hear from their leaders.
Multiple alt causes for sectarian divide – plan doesn’t change institutional discrimination
International Crisis Group 5/6 ("Popular Protests in North Africa and the Middle East (III): The Bahrainian Revolt" MENA Report, http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Bahrain/105-%20Popular%20Protests%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20-III-The%20Bahrain%20Revolt.pdf)
As Shiites see it, discrimination ……. Iranian Revolution.
Don’t evaluate their terrorism impact—the combined probability is insanely low
Schneidmiller 9 (Chris, Experts Debate Threat of Nuclear, Biological Terrorism, 13 January 2009, http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_20090113_7105.php, AMiles)
……… build a weapon or use one that has been stolen.
No risk of India-Pakistan war
Mutti 9 – over a decade of expertise covering on South Asia geopolitics, Contributing Editor to Demockracy journal (James, 1/5, Mumbai Misperceptions: War is Not Imminent, http://demockracy.com/four-reasons-why-the-mumbai-attacks-wont-result-in-a-nuclear-war/)
Writer Amitav Ghosh divined a crucial connection ……. face of the attacks and is using its regional influence to bring more diplomatic pressure on Pakistan.
1nc counterplan (1)
The Government of Turkey should expand its engagement with groups in Bahrain to facilitate broader distribution of access to political benefits.
Turkey should reform its constitution to create greater protection of due process, press freedom, and women and minority rights, and should maintain a parliamentary system of government.
Solves ---
A) Fleet – because it maintains stability
B) Democracy – creates the basis for its existence
Kirişci, 10 - fellow with the Transatlantic Academy. He is a professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Boğaziçi University, Istanbul and holds a Jean Monnet Chair in European Integration. (Kemal, “Diffusing Liberal Market and Democratic Values: Assessing Turkey's 'Soft Power' in Transforming its Neighborhood,” APSA 2010 Annual Meeting Paper http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1644657) TIKA = Turkish International Cooperation and Development Agency
One striking aspect of Turkey’s ………. in Turkey that once looked at civil society with suspicion.
CP is key to Turkish soft power –
CSM, 11 (Editorial, “Outsourcing democracy promotion,” 6/16, http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/the-monitors-view/2011/0616/Outsourcing-democracy-promotion)
Turkey joined a unique club of leaders this ……… the region's people finally find the freedoms they have long sought.
Turns the case
Ayoob, 11 - University Distinguished Professor of International Relations at Michigan State University (Mohammed, Middle East Policy, Summer, “BEYOND THE DEMOCRATIC WAVE: A TURKO-PERSIAN FUTURE?,” proquest)
Soft power is much more ………. the concert of powers that dominate international security and economic structures. Furthermore, the perception that these are the only two countries/regimes in the Middle East able to challenge what is widely seen in the region as Israel's predatory behavior adds to their popularity among Arab and Muslim publics.
1nc democracy advantage
1. Democracy doesn’t solve war ---
a) Empirics
Ferguson, professor of history @ Harvard, 6 (Niall, Foreign Affairs, September/October)
It might have been expected that such ……… Trotsky nicely summed up the paradox when reflecting on the First Balkan War of 1912-13, which he covered as a reporter. The conflict, Trotsky wrote, "shows that we still haven't crawled out on all fours from the barbaric stage of our history. We have learned to wear suspenders, to write clever editorials, and to make chocolate milk, but when we have to decide seriously a question of the coexistence of a few tribes on a rich peninsula of Europe, we are helpless to find a way other than mutual mass slaughter." Trotsky later made his own contribution to the history of mass slaughter as the people's commissar for war and as the commander of the Red Army during the Russian Civil War.
b) History proves
Abanes 8 (Menandro, 8/29, pg. http://www.monitor.upeace.org/archive.cfm?id_article=540)
Perhaps the most fundamental question that .. out of the Hobbesian state of nature.
2. Your internal link is about democratic credibility --- alt causes
a) Tunisia – failing now
Prince, 11 [May 13th, Rob Prince is the publisher of the Colorado Progressive Jewish News. “Has Tunisia's March Towards Democracy Been Halted in Its Tracks?”, http://www.fpif.org/blog/has_tunisias_march_towards_democracy_been_halted_in_its_tracks]
Some are asking: Has Tunisia’s march ………. 'pour cash crouttes et ashrah dinars' (for a few crumbs of bread and 10 dinars) During the recent four days of demonstrations in Tunis, a lot of damage to property and cars took place. The demonstrators insist it is not they who turned violent, but provocateurs.
Turns solvency
Rubin, 8/28/11 [ Philadelphia Inquirer, “Worldview: Don't forget Tunisia, where democracy has a better chance to work”, http://articles.philly.com/2011-08-28/news/29938479_1_mohamed-bouazizi-ben-ali-tunisian-economy/2]
While the media are ………., and the Tunisian example lit up the entire Arab world.
b) Egypt –
cred low now
Obama’s credibility on Egypt is low now
Dune and Kagan, 11 [June 4th, The writers, senior associates at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, are members of the nonpartisan Working Group on Egypt, a consortium of policy experts from Carnegie, the Council on Foreign Relations, Human Rights Watch, the Center for American Progress, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, the Foreign Policy Initiative and Freedom House. Obama needs to support Egyptians as well as Mubarak http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/03/AR2010060303935.html]
A year later, Egyptians are scratching ………… in that part of the world, such a commitment would be the kind of "new beginning" the Egyptian people seek.
Outweighs
Diamond, 11 [Larry, Fellow Hoover Foundation, Democracy Promotion and the Obama Doctrine, http://www.cfr.org/us-strategy-and-politics/democracy-promotion-obama-doctrine/p24621]
Do you see Egypt as a lynchpin for ………….. Because the region has not had one for most of its history.
Not key to global democracy
1nc solvency (1)
1. The plan doesn’t resolve the protestor’s demands for regime change
Katzman, 11 – Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, Congressional Research Service (Kenneth, 8/3. “Bahrain: Reform, Security, and U.S. Policy.” CRS Report. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/95-1013.pdf)
Protests that erupted in Bahrain following the uprising that overthrew Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak on February 11, 2011, demonstrate that Shiite grievances over the distribution of power and economic opportunities were not satisfied by relatively limited ……… on July 18, 2011 when the largest Shiite opposition group withdrew from it.
And, that comparatively outweighs their internal link
Diwan, 11 – Assistant Professor of Comparative and Regional Studies at the School of International Service at American University (Kristin, “Bahrain’s Shia Question” Foreign Affairs, 3/2, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67555/kristin-smith-diwan/bahrains-shia-question
The outbreak of the Arab revolutions ……….
2. Won’t listen to the united states – no influence
Northam, 11 – Foreign Affairs correspondent for NPR news (Jackie, 5/22. “Bahrain Crackdown Puts Pressure On U.S. Diplomacy.” http://www.npr.org/2011/05/22/136507091/bahrain-crackdown-puts-pressure-on-u-s-diplomacy)
While public criticism of ….
3. The Khalifa regime says no
Smith, 11 - is a visiting fellow at Hudson Institute (Lee, “The Bahrain Crack-Up,” 8/10,
http://www.eurasiareview.com/the-bahrain-crack-up-oped-10082011/
…….. more American friends than a government whose allies threaten U.S. diplomats.
And, Even if they say yes, Saudis will overrule
Al-Tamimi 6/19 – intern for the Middle East Forum (Aymenn Jawad, "Bahrain: Can the U.S. Do Anything?" The American Thinker, http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/06/bahrain_can_the_us_do_anything.html)
But here is the catch: Saudi Arabia, which is leading the ………… giving rise to true dialogue and reform. Too often, the U.S. is assumed to be the decisive player in crises like the Bahraini uprising. On the contrary, the real power to change the course of events lies in the hands of the Saudis and the GCC.
4. Protestors are in jail – takes out the aff
Dorsey, 11 – senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (James M., 8/13. “What to do About Bahrain? A Headache For Both Obama and Blatter,” http://mideastposts.com/2011/08/13/what-to-do-about-bahrain-a-headache-for-both-obama-and-blatter/)
The crackdown and the government’s insistence that Iran had instigated the protests aided by a Shiite fifth column transformed the situation into one of sectarian tension. To be sure, there was violence on both sides of the sectarian and political divide during the protests but healing of the wounds is likely to prove difficult if …….. for some of the prisoner releases.
5. Bahrain is corrupt and will engage in sham reforms – sends a signal which kills us credibility
Ottaway 2011 – PhD from Columbia, Gulf analyst at Carnegie (4/4, Marina, Carnegie Endowment, “Bahrain: Between the United States and Saudi Arabia”, carnegieendowment.org/2011/04/04/bahrain-between-united-states-and-saudi-arabia/t8#, WEA)
From Constitutional Monarchy to ………… Saudi Arabia should take precedence right now.
1. Their evidence says that Arab Spring generally creates basing tension – not the plan
COOLEY AND NEXON ‘11 (Alexander, Assoc Prof Poli Sci at Barnard College and member of Colombia University’s Institute for War and Peace Studies; Daniel, Assoc Prof School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown, “Bahrain’s Base Politics: The Arab Spring and America’s Military Bases,” Foreign Affairs, April 5, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show#%29
Washington's balancing act reflects more than the ……. allies are vulnerable.
Uzbekistan proves no spillover
COOLEY AND NEXON ‘11 (Alexander, Assoc Prof Poli Sci at Barnard College and member of Colombia University’s Institute for War and Peace Studies; Daniel, Assoc Prof School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown, “Bahrain’s Base Politics: The Arab Spring and America’s Military Bases,” Foreign Affairs, April 5, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show#%29
Further complicating base politics are ……… to throw its autocratic friends under the bus.
Your author admits economic benefits are key not the aff
COOLEY AND NEXON ‘11 (Alexander, Assoc Prof Poli Sci at Barnard College and member of Colombia University’s Institute for War and Peace Studies; Daniel, Assoc Prof School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown, “Bahrain’s Base Politics: The Arab Spring and America’s Military Bases,” Foreign Affairs, April 5, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show#%29
It is time for U.S. officials to ………. family. At the same time, Washington needs to signal that it believes that both countries' interests are best served by greater political liberalization.
2. Hegemony doesn’t solve war – lacks any empirical substantiation, regional agreements solve
Preble, 10 (8/3/10 Christopher Preble, director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, taught history at St. Cloud State University and Temple University, was a commissioned officer in the U.S. Navy, Ph.D. in history from Temple University. “U.S. Military Power: Preeminence for What Purpose?” 8/3/10) http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/u-s-military-power-preeminence-for-what-purpose/)
Most in Washington still ……… of their respective regions.
3. No kickout –
UPI 2011 (7/22, “U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet to stay put”, http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2011/07/22/US-Navys-5th-Fleet-to-stay-put/UPI-72621311348915/)
WASHINGTON, July 22 (UPI) -- The U.S. State Department denied reports that the U.S. Navy was considering removing the 5th Fleet from its port in Bahrain.
U.S. and regional …….. condition of anonymity that the report didn't reflect the views of the Pentagon or the State Department.
4. even instability wont kick us out
AFP 2011 (2/24, “US lawmaker: US Fleet can stay in Bahrain”, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hY2GLFk3vuuSWqhClRRMBYufdeJg?docId=CNG.0e409dafc18367e33fb3689dce6ce4ac.561)
WASHINGTON — A US lawmaker visiting …… seen no evidence: The traffic is flowing freely, I was looking for no additional police and saw none, and certainly no military equipment," said Wilson.
5. Qatar and UAE check
Glaser 2011 – reporter for Antiwar (7/20, John, “US navy’s fifth fleet could abandon Bahrain”, http://inthesenewtimes.com/2011/07/21/us-navy%E2%80%99s-fifth-fleet-could-abandon-bahrain/, WEA)
The U.S. Navy is considering ….. military forces in the region, with 40 vessels and close to 30,000 personnel.
Bahrain not key
Barzegar 11 [Kayhan, Faculty Member, Department of International Relations, Science and Research University, Tehran, Iran, Former Associate, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program, 2010–2011; Former Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/international Security Program, 2007–2010, "Iran's Interests and Values and the 'Arab Spring'" 4-20 -- http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/20954/irans_interests_and_values_and_the_arab_spring.html]
Iran will not initiate any ……. continued presence in the Persian Gulf.
%%) ====== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Russia DA (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)QIZ CP (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Condition on Women’s Rights (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Payroll Tax Cuts Politics (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Turkey CP w/Soft Power NB (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== (% class="Underline" %)Case Args