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U1ac  plan
The United States federal government should provide substantial advisory support to mediate a high level dialogue between the government of Bahrain and proponents of democratic constitutional reform.
1ac advantage one 

Advantage one is the Fifth Fleet - 

Bahrain’s political are deadlocked now – us influence is key to regional reform
Lippman, 9/22/11 - adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute and former Middle East bureau chief of the Washington Post (Thomas, “ The U.S. Dilemma in Bahrain,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/POMED-Policy-Brief_Lippman.pdf)
Bahrain’s Unresolved Issues
Much of Bahrain’s history……….. swiftly reversed course.

The US just called for a new dialogue but needs to back it up with direct support or it will collapse in violence
Kerr, 9/30/11 (Simeon, “Life refuses to return to normal in Bahrain,” Financial Times,
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/51354940-eb59-11e0-9a41-00144feab49a.html#axzz1ZRcw1zs0)

The government has ……… who declined to give his surname.

Increasing radicalization creates the risk of a full scale civil war
Shaikh, 11 - Director of the Brookings Institution's Doha Center and Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy (Salman, “The Bahrain crisis and its regional dangers,” 3/23, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/23/the_bahrain_crisis_and_its_regional_dangers)

While US and international ……… mired in a full blown civil war.

It’s beginning to escalate now
Kerr, 9/23/11 (Simon, Financial Times, “Clashes erupt in Bahrain ahead of by-elections,”
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/47e1bf48-e601-11e0-b196-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1ZRcw1zs0

Clashes erupted across the ……………have now moved to more public areas of the capital,which could mark a dangerous escalation.

Violence kicks out the fifth fleet
Lippman, 9/22/11 - adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute and former Middle East bureau chief of the Washington Post (Thomas, “ The U.S. Dilemma in Bahrain,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/POMED-Policy-Brief_Lippman.pdf)
Of the Arab countries in which political ……….. because it would be expensive even if another host country could be found, but it may be left with no choice given the current turmoil.

Kick out collapses regional power projection – prevents Iranian deterrence
Goodspeed, 11 award winning reporter for the National Post (Peter, "Goodspeed Anaylsis: Unrest in Bahrain could threaten key US military outposts", 2/14, National Post, http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/02/14/peter-goodspeed-unrest-in-bahrain-could-threaten-key-u-s-military-outpost/
There are concerns la…………world suddenly engulfs the emirate.

The perception of credible deterrence secures US power
Etzioni,11 Director of the Institute for Communitarian Policy Studies, George Wash U. Frmr sociology prof at Columbia PhD in sociology from UC Berkeley Amitai, The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility, March-April 2011, Military Review, http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf
As of the beginning of 2011…………… its global responsibilities and live up to its commitments overseas.

Global Nuclear War
Ben-Meir 7—Alon Ben-Meir, professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, 2/6/07, Realpolitik: Ending Iran's defiance, http://www.upi.com/Security_Industry/2007/02/06/Realpolitik-Ending-Irans-defiance/UPI-69491170778058/
Feeling emboldened ……….by Iran, which dreads major U.S. punitive measures.

Heg good
Barnett, 11 - chief analyst at Wikistrat, former visiting scholar at the University of Tennessee’s Howard Baker Center for Public Policy and a visiting strategist at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies (Thomas, World Politics Review, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” 3/7, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads
Events in Libya are a ………. global GDP and a profound and persistent reduction in battle deaths from state-based conflicts.

Great power war
Walton, 07 (Dale C, Lecturer in International Relations and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading in Reading, England,  Geopolitics and Great Powers in the Twenty-First Century, pg. 64-65)
Although international ………… great power war. 

And, only the fifth fleet solves leadership
Cropsey 10 Seth, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, former Naval Officer and deputy senior under secretary of the Navy in the administration of Reagan and BushII, "The US Navy in Distress", Strategic Analysis, Vol. 34 No. 1, January, http://www.hudson.org/files/publications/Cropsey_US_Navy_In_Distress.pdf
American maritime………resources needed to recoup seapower surrendered slowly over decades.

Fleet is key to resolve Asian energy conflicts
Mead 7 (Walter, Senior Fellow @ CFR, Wall Street Journal, “Why We’re in the Gulf”, 12-27, http://docs.google.com/View?docid=ah6sxjndq9qq_387kw2kfkm9)

For the past few centuries, a ………. global community. The next American president, regardless of party and regardless of his or her views about the wisdom of George W. Bush's invasion of Iraq, will necessarily make the security of the Persian Gulf states one of America's very highest international priorities.

Nuke war
Emmott, 8 – former editor of the Economist (Bill, ‘Power rises in the east,’ The Australian, June 4, pg. l/n
As well as knitting them, however, this drama is also grinding together Asian powers that had previously kept a strict economic and political separation from one another. China, India and Japan are bumping against ……-Diaoyutai islands, Taiwan and Pakistan.

Plan solves – supporting genuine dialogue between the ruling family and al Wefaq creates space for political reform, and breaks from prior US divide and conquer tactics
Aziz and Musalem, 11 – *legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law, holds an M.A. in Middle Eastern studies from the University of Texas AND holds degrees in sociology as well as Middle Eastern language and cultures. Mr. Musalem grew up in Bahrain, where he has conducted social research, and has been a frequent visitor to the county over the past decade (Sahar and Abdullah, “Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement,” http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf)
Notwithstanding this intervention, ……….national interest.

US influence can create a roadmap for a real dialogue – Bahrain will say yes if the US leads the process
POMED, 11 – Project on Middle East Democracy.  Panelists included Joe Stork, Deputy Director of Middle East and North Africa Division, Human Rights Watch; Hans Hogrefe, Chief Policy Officer and Washington Director, Physicians for Human Rights; Leslie Campbell, Senior Associate and Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa, National Democratic Institute; and Ambassador Martin Indyk, Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institution. (Event Summary of “Tensions in the Persian Gulf after the Arab Uprisings: Implications for U.S. Policy”, 6/29,
http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Tensions_in_the_Persian_Gulf_June_29_20111.pdf

Joe Stork spoke first,……… Bahraini authorities on a regular basis.

The plan is the best middle ground – stronger pressure will create fissures in the relationship and collapse deterrence credibility
Darling, 11 - an international military markets analyst with Forecast International Inc., an aerospace and defense research company. A graduate of Kansas State University with a degree in history, he specializes in the European and Middle Eastern regions at Forecast (Daniel, “Don’t Expect a Split in the U.S.-Bahrain Relationship,” 2/22, The Faster Times,
http://www.thefastertimes.com/defensespending/2011/02/22/dont-expect-a-split-in-the-u-s-bahrain-relationship/

It is no surprise, therefore, ………. and the U.S. is not going to alienate itself from those nations allied to its interests.
1ac advantage two
Contention two is the Shia 

US failure to mediate a dialogue over political reform will cause Iranian intervention and radicalize Shia regionally
Al-Ahmed & Jacobs 11 – Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs & Gulf Policy Analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs (Ali & Joshua, “The Crisis in Bahrain” Institute for Gulf Affairs, May 2011, http://www.scribd.com/doc/59873023/Bahrain-Policy-Paper, MCL)
Analysis and ………. opposition groups and the Bahraini Crown. It is an option that provides a potential “out” for some of the reformers/moderates in the royal family, and can legitimize the opposition in the wake of the crisis.

Causes Saudi Iran War
Shaikh, 11 [3/23/11, Salman Director of the Brookings Institution's Doha Center and Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy Shaikh previously served as the Special Assistant for the Middle East and Asia to the United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs and as an adviser to former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers-Salman Shaikh, http://www.troubledkashmir.com/index.php/world-press-today/615-the-bahrain-crisis-and-its-regional-dangers-salman-shaikh]  

While US and international ……………. It is now time to put aside sectarian concerns and deep seated existential fears and get on with the job of achieving this for the future of Bahrain, the Gulf region, and the entire Middle East. 

Goes nuclear
London, 10 [president of Hudson Institute and professor emeritus of New York University, Herbert,  “The Coming Crisis In The Middle East,” June 28, 2010, http://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east]
The coming storm in the Middle East is gaining …………… could lead to a nuclear exchange. 

And, global  
Gold, 07 [Thomas J., Masters in Strategic Intelligence, Joint Military Intelligence College, Nuclear Conflict in the Middle East: An Analysis of Future Events, p. 53-55]
If the political, ethnic,…………., the U.S. siding with Israel, and Russia siding with Iran. Escalation to regional or global nuclear war is now a possibility. 

Expanding Iranian influence causes Oil Shocks
Maginnis 11—Robert, retired Army lieutenant colonel, national security and foreign affairs analyst, "Bahrain's No Egypt", 2/21, Human Events, http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=41912
First, Iran would use …………. of the world’s seaborne oil shipments pass. 

Econ collapse
Babej 11 - Contributor to Forbes [Marc E. Babej, “A Saudi Oil Supply Disruption-The Ultimate Marketing Crisis Scenario,” Forbes, 3/29/2011 @ 01:48PM |pg.  http://www.forbes.com/sites/marcbabej/2011/03/29/a-saudi-oil-supply-disruption-the-ultimate-marketing-crisis-scenario/]  

• Vance Scott - Partner at A.T. Kearney who leads the Energy and Chemicals Practice in the Americas.
  And still: in 2011, the t……………. oil derivatives.

Great power nuclear war
Green and Schrage, 09 – *Senior Advisor and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Associate Professor at Georgetown University,  CSIS Scholl Chair in International Business and a former senior official with the US Trade Representative's Office, State Department and Ways & Means Committee (3/26, Michael and Steven, Asia Times, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economy/KC26Dk01.html, WEA)
Facing the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, analysts at the World Bank and the US Central Intelligence Agency are just beginning to contemplate the ramifications for international stability if there is not a recovery in the next year. For the most part, the focus has been on fragile states such as some in Eastern Europe…………. protectionism could still unravel the international system through other guises. 

The plan engages the Shia and checks Iranian influence
Cooley and Nexon, 11 – Associate Professor of Political Science at Barnard College and a member of Columbia University's Arnold A. Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies, AND Daniel, Associate Professor in the School of Foreign Service and the Department of Government at Georgetown University (Bahrain's Base Politics, Foreign Affairs, April 5, 2011, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics, MCL)

Second, Washington ……….. to gain flexibility before the next political crisis hits than be forced to scramble after it is under way. 

US support deescalates Shiite resentment regionally
Terrill, 8/2/11 – Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute (Andrew, “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World,” http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/The-Arab-Spring-and-the-Future-of-US-Interests/2011/8/2#bahrain)

The conflict in ………. interests and improved the position of Iran, but this situation may be reparable if strong attention is paid to the needs of Bahraini Shi'ites.

Even if dialogue fails, the plan signals a change in posture that builds goodwill with future governments
Slackman, 11 (Michael, “Dim View of U.S. Posture Toward Bahraini Shiites Is Described,” New York Times, 2/21, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/22/world/middleeast/22bahrain.html?pagewanted=all)

MANAMA, Bahrain — The United ………… of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the news media.

Energy wars go global
King 8 – Researcher @ Center for New American Security [Neil King, Jr. (Columnist for the Wall Street Journal), “Peak Oil: A Survey of Security Concerns,” CNAS Energy Security Visionaries Series, Center for New American Security, JULY 2008, http://www.aspousa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/_CNAS_King_Peak_Oil_WorkingPaper.pdf
Many commentators in the ….. the rash ones.

alexanderdpappas@gmail.com

Al Wefaq and Bahrain will accept the plan – also proves your links are nonunique

Toumi, 9/22/11 (Habib, “Foreign minister welcomes Obama' remarks on Bahrain,” Gulf News, )

……… 300 figures to help shape the future of Bahrain following months of unrest and divisions within the Bahraini society, saying that it would not yield the anticipated results.

The plan solves US human rights leadership

Cunningham, 9/18/11 [Finnian, global Research Correspondent based in Belfast, Ireland He was expelled from Bahrain for his critical journalism on 18 June 2011, Bahrain: Is Washington Preparing For ‘Regime Change’ in PR Disaster Kingdom?, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=26630]

The persistence of pro-democracy ………… big spanner in US foreign policy wheels.

Key to economic leadership

Khodorkovsky, 9/25/11 [Mikhail, Russia’s former richest man, Deputy Minister of Fuel and Energy of Russia (1993)
 Chairman and CEO of Yukos (1997–2004) Stop Coddling My Country’s Rulers, http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2011/09/25/khodorkovsky-america-is-weakening-on-human-rights.html]

If America can still be ……… an even lonelier battle.

Global nuclear war

Mandelbaum, 05 – Professor and Director of the American Foreign Policy Program at Johns Hopkins – 2005

[Michael, The Case for Goliath: How America Acts As the World’s Government in the Twenty-First Century, p. 224]

At best, an American …….. is more to lose now than there was then—and because of the presence, in large numbers, of nuclear weapons.

The Saudis only sent troops because of US approval

Ziabari, 11 (Kouroush, “US gives green light to invade Bahrain,” PressTV,

http://presstv.com/detail/170769.html

Only a few hours after the US …. of Al Khalifa which has been ruling Bahrain over the past 40 years. 

Democracy assistance is dialogue .

Huber, 8 - Hebrew University of Jerusalem Department of International Relations (Daniela, Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 13, No. 1, 43–62, March 2008, “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies”, ebsco) 

What is Democracy Assistance?

The term democracy assistance is used ……. related questions or indirectly through the strengthening of networks.

Prefer it

1. Context – da must be tailored to regime type

Mitchell and Phillips, 8 – *professor in the Practice of International Politics at Columbia University’s School of International and Political Affairs AND ** project director of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy and currently a visiting scholar at Columbia University’s Center for the Study of Human Rights (Lincoln and David, “Enhancing Democracy Assistance”, http://www.acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/65/Enhancing%20Democracy%20Assistance.pdf)

Today’s democracy assistance ………… video posts, and support for people-to-people activities including Fulbright Fellowships and International Visitors Programs.

offense defense causes a race to the bottom that destroys clash – rez basis

Oxford Dictionaries Online, No Date (“Its”, )

its Entry from World dictionary Pronunciation:/ɪts/ possessive determiner belonging to or associated with a thing previously mentioned or easily identified: turn the camera on its side he chose the area for its atmosphere

Saudi Arabia can’t build nuclear weapons and wont get them from elsewhere

Amlin 2008 – Kate, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) & Monterey Institute of International

Studies (Will Saudi Arabia acquire nuclear weapons?, August 2008,  , MCL)

Beyond investigating available ……… invite the international isolation that would result from such a purchase and risk harming the Kingdom's own political and economic relations.[11]

No wildfire prolif

Lynch 2010 – Colom, Washington Post Staff Writer (The Nuclear Caste System, Foreign Policy, April

Others believe the threat of the arms race ………. plutonium from spent fuel."

NPT fails at stopping prolif

Alexander H. Rothman and Lawrence J. Korb 10-16-2011; Pakistan doubles its nuclear arsenal: Is it time to start worrying?  Alexander H. Rothman; Rothman is a special assistant with the national security and international policy team at the Center for American Progress. Lawrence J. Korb A senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, Korb served as assistant secretary of defense during the Reagan administration from 1981-1985. In that position, he administered 70 percent of the country's defense budget; his service earned him the Defense Department's medal for Distinguished Public Service. He has written 20 books on national security issues, including The Fall and Rise of the Pentagon, Future Visions for U.S. Defense Policy, and A New National Security Strategy in an Age of Terrorists, Tyrants, and Weapons of Mass Destruction. He is currently a member of the Bulletin's Science and Security Board.

According to recent reports in the ……… remain out of sight.

The alliance is resilient.

Teitelbaum 11 — JD from Harvard and PhD from Cornell, visiting assistant professor at Cornell, senior lecturer in Middle Eastern History, and a research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, at Bar-Ilan University (7/17, Joshua, Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, Perspectives Papers on Current Affairs, “Empty Words: Saudi Blustering and US-Saudi Realities”, http://www.biu.ac.il/SOC/besa/perspectives.html, WEA)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Saudis ……….. the parting of the ways threatened by some Saudi officials.

Palestinian statehood takes out the link  -- outweighs the plan

Lobe, 9/14/11 [“Agreeing on Less and Less”, Jim, IPS News Service, http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=105103]

WASHINGTON, Sep 14, 2011 (IPS) - Accumulating ……… threat" to the Saudis.

Military dependence checks [will keep ties strong—they don’t want to replace us because their own forces are dedicated to crushing protests]

Jones 2011 – assistant professor of history at Rutgers University (8/24, Toby, The Nation, “Saudi Arabia’s regional reaction”, http://www.thenation.com/article/162962/saudi-arabias-regional-reaction, WEA)

The Saudi regime is not ………..ect its closest allies.

Plan deters and contains Iran by maintaining the Fifth Fleet– the aff changes impact uniqueness because it makes any war impossible

Solves the da

Haykel 11 – Professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University (8/16, Bernard, Democracy Digest, “Saudis ‘leading counter-revolution’ against Arab Spring”, , WEA)

Saudi Arabia is widely ……… younger generation of Arabs is no longer prepared to accept unaccountable, corrupt, and brutal governments.

Bahrain will say no – will just align themselves with the GCC who is offering them security guarantees now – the impact is the AFF

Knigge 2011 – Michael, headed up the German editorial team of DW-WORLD.DE since 2004. Previously, he worked as a reporter for the English service of Deutsche Welle Radio, as well as for various news agencies (Washington has vested interest but little leverage in Bahrain, deutsche well, , March 25, 2011, MCL)

** Graeme Herd, who heads the International Security Program at the Geneva Center for Security Policy

 "But that's a hard sell," says Herd. "…….. GCC," says Herd.

They’ll just engage in sham reforms to deflect criticism

Washington Post Sept 9, 2011 – Bahrain needs US Attention Now, Washington post, , MCL

BAHRAIN HAS BECOME the ……….. hard-liner, Prime Minister Khalifa bin Salman al-Khalifa, who has been in office since 1971.

Lack of government accountability means they have no incentive to follow through

Hilterman Sept 8, 2011 – Joost, Deputy Program Director for Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group (Obama's Bahrain backpedalling, CNN global public square, , MCL)

As the Arab Spring unfolded, the …… regime might end up driving them into Iran's arms.

They will cause the US bluff

Traub, 11 - contributing writer for the New York Times Magazine and author of, most recently, The Freedom Agenda. "Terms of Engagement," his column for ForeignPolicy.com, runs weekly (James, “Friend Request,” 5/27, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/05/27/friend_request

And maybe they were in no position to do so. ……… about Israel). Reformers in the Middle East heard that message, and welcomed it. And they're going to hold Obama to his promise. In Bahrain, they're going to find out whether he meant what he said.

The counterplan rocks the boat too hard – risks escalation of the conflict

McManus, 11 – Washington Columnist for the LA Times (Doyle, “Rattling the palace windows in the Persian Gulf,” LA Times, 2/20,

So the aim of U.S. policy in the …….. ersatz democracy and the real thing.

In Bahrain and elsewhere, history is calling our bluff.

Pursuing modest constitutional reforms is vital – too much pressure provokes a backlash

International Crisis Group, 5 (“BAHRAIN'S SECTARIAN CHALLENGE,” 5/6, )

For Washington, in other words, this ……… demographic realities.

Our aff is a better site of resistance—we outweigh

Goldstein 2001 – IR professor at American University (Joshua, War and Gender, p. 412, Google Books)

First, peace activists ….. inadequate.

Preventing nuclear war is the absolute prerequisite to positive peace.

Folk, 78 Professor of Religious and Peace Studies at Bethany College, 78 [Jerry, “Peace Educations – Peace Studies : Towards an Integrated Approach,” Peace & Change, volume V, number 1, Spring, p. 58]

Those proponents of the …… and concerns which occupy those who view the field essentially from the point of view of negative peace.

No prior questions – pragmatism is superior 

Hellmann, 09 [professor of political science at Goethe University, “Beliefs as Rules for Action: Pragmatism as a Theory of Thought and Action” International Studies Review, Volume 11, Issue 3, Pages 638-662]

While this is not the place ……….. "unhitches" human beings from "a useless structure of bad abstractions about thought" (Menand 1997:xi).

The aff prevents knee jerk interventionism – link turns the k

Lund, 11 [Michael S. Lund, “Human Rights: A Source of Conflict, State Making, and State Breaking”, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/Lund%20-%20Human%20Rights.pdf]

This more balanced, contextualized ………. combative approach can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Framework – the k must prove that the plan is a bad idea – competitive policy option or the status quo – key to fairness – also prevents serial policy failure 
Walt 11 – Stephen M. Walt, Professor of International Affairs at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, July 21, 2011, “International Affairs and the Public Sphere,” online: http://publicsphere.ssrc.org/walt-international-affairs-and-the-public-sphere/

Academics can make at least ……… to be of less value than the scholars who produce it might wish.

Permutation do both

Focus on strategic deterrence and democracy are key to averting crisis escalation – reject the infinite number of root causes that debilitate action

Moore 4 – Professor of Law at the University of Virginia. He formerly served as the first Chairman of the Board of the United States Institute of Peace and as the Counselor on International Law to the Department of State. (John Norton, Winter, “Beyond the Democratic Peace: Solving the War Puzzle”, 44 Va. J. Int'l L. 341, Lexis Law)

If major interstate war is ……… makes a transition to stable democracy or vice versa? And what, in general, happens when levels of deterrence are dramatically increased or decreased?

Deterrence doesn’t make securitization inevitable – it can break cycles of hostility and generate cooperation

Lupovici 8 – Post-Doctoral Fellow Munk Centre for International Studies University of Toronto (Amir, “Why the Cold War Practices of Deterrence are Still Prevalent: Physical Security, Ontological Security and Strategic Discourse,”  http://www.cpsa-acsp.ca/papers-2008/Lupovici.pdf 

Since deterrence can …….. the actors’ identities and created more stable expectations of avoiding violence.

Overall global violence is decreasing because of US hegemony

Barnett, 9/19/11 - chief analyst at Wikistrat (Thomas, World Politics Review, “The New Rules: Credit the U.S., Not the U.N., for More Peaceful World,” http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/10047/the-new-rules-credit-the-u-s-not-the-u-n-for-more-peaceful-world)

Thanks to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and the …….. so happens to coincide with the greatest reduction in global violence ever seen.

Positivism is the necessary epistemology for studying IR—the alternative creates epistemological anarchy and destroys empirical analysis

Brown, 2011 (Vernon, Cardiff U, “The Reflectivist Critique of Positivist IR Theory”, http://www.e-

ir.info/?p=7328)

There is a great deal of support for ………, could provide the stability needed.

Realistic threat assessment is the best way to deal with Iran

Pham 2010 (Peter, assoc prof pol sci @ james madison “Iran’s Threat to the Strait of Hormuz: A Realist Assessment” American Foreign Policy Interests, 32: 64–74,)

If the likely result of the Iranian …….. of political realism.

The kritik doesn’t implicate solvency—prefer our internal links

Youngs 2k11. Richard Youngs, Director General of FRIDE, professor of politics at the University of Warwick, “Misunderstanding the Maladies of Liberal Democracy Promotion,” , February 11, 2011

A fourth contention is that ……. the result of a particular conceptualistion of democracy support policies.

More importantly, only a focus on core democratic values and support of opposition parties avoids violent totalitarianism—their kritik of American liberalism is overkill—the perm is the best option.

Youngs 2k11. Richard Youngs, Director General of FRIDE, professor of politics at the University of Warwick, “Misunderstanding the Maladies of Liberal Democracy Promotion,” , February 11, 2011

Current international ………… democracy support.

Scholarship on neoliberalism is sloppy – it’s narrow terms create the problems that it attempts to solve – their very conceptualization of neoliberalism turns itself and makes the impact inevitable – refuse their simplistic view the world

Barnett 2k9 (Clive, prof social sciences @ the open U “PUBLICS AND MARKETS What’s wrong with Neoliberalism?”

This chapter has suggested ……. for.

Neoliberalism solves global poverty.

Bandow 01 senior fellow at the CATO Institute [Doug Bandow, , March 25th, 2001 Globalization Serves the World's Poor, ]

Indeed, the problems …… wealth.

Fleet is key to resolve Asian energy conflicts
Mead 7 (Walter, Senior Fellow @ CFR, Wall Street Journal, “Why We’re in the Gulf”, 12-27, )

For the past few centuries, a ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, one of America's very highest international priorities.

Nuke war

Emmott, 8 – former editor of the Economist (Bill, ‘Power rises in the east,’ The Australian, June 4, pg. l/n

As well as knitting ……………… and Pakistan.

Carries are critical to global deterrence solves china war and global escalation

Brookes, 08 Senior Fellow in National Security Affairs at the Heritage Foundation, Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Affairs, 2k8 (Peter, May 2nd, “Flattop Follies: Navy Cuts Back on Carriers”, )

CHECK this: After cutting the number of active aircraft carriers from 12 to 11 last year, the Navy is now requesting Congress' permission to go down from 11 flattops to 10 for the years 2012 to 2015.

It gets worse.  Maintenance required …………. maintain our carrier fleet will embolden potential adversaries. More than one historically great naval power became a shadow of its former self - much to its detriment.  Given the challenges we face, how can this nation not afford to maintain a fleet of at least 12 carriers? Remember: Even in a high-tech warfare world, quantity has a quality all its own.

And, only the fifth fleet solves leadership

Cropsey 10 Seth, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, former Naval Officer and deputy senior under secretary of the Navy in the administration of Reagan and BushII, "The US Navy in Distress", Strategic Analysis, Vol. 34 No. 1, January, …………slowly over decades.

Removal sends an immediate signal – collapses deterrence

Smith, 11 - is a visiting fellow at Hudson Institute (Lee, “The Bahrain Crack-Up,” 8/10,

In an Al Jazeera interview, Matar explained that he wants Bahrain to be a secular democracy, where “everyone can express his beliefs.” What he wants from the United States, he says “is a strong relationship… an opportunity for the progress of democracy in Bahrain.”

There have been rumors ……… going gets tough.

Kick out collapses regional power projection – prevents Iranian deterrence

Goodspeed, 11 award winning reporter for the National Post (Peter, "Goodspeed Anaylsis: Unrest in Bahrain could threaten key US military outposts", 2/14, National Post,

There are concerns large-scale Shiite unrest in …………. engulfs the emirate.

The perception of credible deterrence secures US power

Etzioni,11 Director of the Institute for Communitarian Policy Studies, George Wash U. Frmr sociology prof at Columbia PhD in sociology from UC Berkeley Amitai, The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility, March-April 2011, Military Review,

As of the beginning of 2011, ………….. States to discharge what it sees as its global responsibilities and live up to its commitments overseas.

We can’t relocate the fleet—Bahrain is the only option
 GUNDUN AND ISODOR 2011 (James and Dwight, political scientists and counterinsurgency analysts at Octopus Mountain, “Winds of Change Rocking Bahrain’s Fifth Fleet,” The Trench, July 22,
 No one can deny this fact. ………….. its staff at 28,000.

Only forward basing solves  
Gerson and Whiteneck 9 (Michael Gerson and Daniel Whiteneck, CNA Strategic Studies, “Deterrence and Influence: The Navy's Role in Preventing War,” March 2009)
 In general deterrence, the intended …………… assure allies and deter adversaries.

Strong signal is key to deter great power war

Conway et al 7 [James T., General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, “A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower,” October, ]

Deter major power war. No other …………… that can concentrate and sustain forces, sea control and power projection enable extended campaigns ashore.

Prefer our argument in the short term

McDevitt, 2011 - Rear Admiral Michael, director, Strategic Studies, Center for Naval Analyses (Shrinking the Status-Quo Navy, Proceedings Magazine - February 2011 Vol. 137/2/1,296, , MCL)

The same sort of speculation about . balance as possible.

Counter interp

Democracy assistance is dialogue .

Huber, 8 - Hebrew University of Jerusalem Department of International Relations (Daniela, Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 13, No. 1, 43–62, March 2008, “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies”, ebsco) 

What is Democracy Assistance?

The term democracy assistance is used …………related questions or indirectly through the strengthening of networks.

Oxford Dictionaries Online, No Date (“Its”, )

its Entry from World dictionary Pronunciation:/ɪts/ possessive determiner belonging to or associated with a thing previously mentioned or easily identified: turn the camera on its side he chose the area for its atmosphere

Saying “Federal Government” doesn’t mean “all three branches” – any one body acts as it

Chicago 7 (University of Chicago Manual of Style, “Capitalization, Titles”, )

Q. When I refer to the government of the ………of State, etc.

Credible US engagement prevents opposition groups from accepting Iranian backing – solves INTERNAL conflicts

POMED, 7/18/11  - Project on Middle East Democracy, “POMED Notes: Maryam al-Khawaja – An Update on Bahrain,” )

Al-Khawaja = Director of External Relations for the Bahrain Center on Human Rights

Al-Khawaja is also concerned about …….. in Bahrain and compromising American national interests. 

We control impact escalation

Spindle & Coker 4/16 – Business Editor of the National, the Abu Dhabi-based English-language newspaper & correspondent for the WSJ (Bill & Margaret, "The New Cold War" The Wall Street Journal, )

But many worry that the toll ……….. in its tracks.

Most recent intelligence proves that Iranian influence is expanding rapidly in Bahrain – including giving weapons

Gulf Daily News, 9/29/11 (“Links to Iran exposed”

)

A global intelligence group …………. "These states are looking for ways to counter an increasingly powerful Iran," it says.

The Saudis only sent troops because of US approval

Ziabari, 11 (Kouroush, “US gives green light to invade Bahrain,” PressTV,

Only a few hours after the US Secretary of Defense ……… the unconditional backing of the United States. He explains that there are currently 6,000 American soldiers deployed in Bahrain and the only way to maintain this military presence, which is vital to the United States, is to keep in power the monarchic family of Al Khalifa which has been ruling Bahrain over the past 40 years. 

Bahrain opposition wants US support

Bahrain Youth Society for Human Rights, 10 (“Open Letter to Hillary Clinton on Eve of Political Dialogue in Bahrain,” 11/30,

When the United States ………. Political Rights and the Convention Against Torture, to which they are a signatory.

The anti-imperialism argument is a rationale used to justify authoritarianism

Zunes, 11 - professor of politics at the University of San Francisco (Stephen, “America Blows It on Bahrain”, Foreign Policy in Focus, 3/2, proquest)

In the aftermath of the ……….. movement in that country, unlike in Bahrain, have taken up arms.

Overall global violence is decreasing because of US hegemony

Barnett, 9/19/11 - chief analyst at Wikistrat (Thomas, World Politics Review, “The New Rules: Credit the U.S., Not the U.N., for More Peaceful World,” )

Thanks to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and ……….. just so happens to coincide with the greatest reduction in global violence ever seen

Condo

No prior questions – pragmatism is superior 

Hellmann, 09 [professor of political science at Goethe University, “Beliefs as Rules for Action: Pragmatism as a Theory of Thought and Action” International Studies Review, Volume 11, Issue 3, Pages 638-662]

While this is not the place …………

Normal means for the plan is behind the scenes diplomacy

Leigh 11—Journalist at Time and Hindustan Times, The U.S. and Bahrain: How to Talk Just Tough Enough with an Ally, Wednesday, June 08, 2011, Time,

The U.S. government's aim this ………… largely private — as long as promises of talks are kept, and tear gas stops raining down on Manama.

Their Youngs ev proves working behind the scenes solves absolutely

Youngs, ‘4 - Richard Youngs is senior researcher at the Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior (FRIDE) in Madrid, and lecturer at the University of Warwick in the UK. He previously worked for the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and coordinated an EU funded research project on democracy in the Middle East, within which he established a network of experts from the Middle East and compiled a series of policy recommendations for the European Commission. Youngs has also acted as consultant to the FCO, DFID and a number of European research institute, the Foreign Policy Center, “Trans-Atlantic Cooperation on Middle East Reform: A European Mis-judgment?,”

Europeans risk becoming so fixated ……….. broadening of ongoing EU programmes.

Obama support only rhetorical, he won’t actually act

Lobe, 9/29/11 (Jim, “U.S. Congress Urged to Reject Arms Sale,” Inter Press Service, )

Although the Obama ……. ties with Riyadh. 

No extinction

O’Neill 4 O’Neill 8/19/2004  [Brendan, “Weapons of Minimum Destruction” ]

David C Rapoport, professor of political …………. is that the cost can be as great 'to the attacker as to the attacked'. The Tigers have not used WMD since.

Legislative success depletes capital – doesn’t increase it

Purdum, 12/20 – Award winning journalist who spent 23 years with the NY Times (12/20/10, Todd S., Vanity Affair, “Obama Is Suffering Because of His Achievements, Not Despite Them,” )

With this weekend’s decisive ……. in Washington).

Political capital is limited – controversies burn capital

Gerson, 12/17 (Michael, 12/17/10, Washington Post, “When it comes to politics, Obama's ego keeps getting in the way,” )

In some areas - such as education ……….. achievement. Rather than being spent, popularity is squandered - something the Obama administration has often done.

Plan depletes obama’s capital

Richter ‘11

(Paul,- staff writer for the LA times “Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition” 4-12)

Reporting from Washington — The Obama administration's efforts to use foreign aid to help Middle East and North African nations undergoing democratic transitions have been stopped short by a Congress focused on paring federal debt and ………… with assistance on a far larger scale," he said. "This could have serious consequences for U.S. interests. But there just doesn't seem to be the will to address it."

Democracy assistance drains capital --- budget fights outweigh

Arnold ’11

(David,- Horn of Africa chief @ VOA News 8-11, lexis)

"You don't have to be ……….. said Sumka.

2ac Saudi da (1)

Saudi Arabia can’t build nuclear weapons and wont get them from elsewhere

Amlin 2008 – Kate, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) & Monterey Institute of International

Studies (Will Saudi Arabia acquire nuclear weapons?, August 2008,  , MCL)

Beyond investigating available ………. Middle East Institute contends that Saudi Arabia would not willingly invite the international isolation that would result from such a purchase and risk harming the Kingdom's own political and economic relations.[11]

The alliance is resilient.

Teitelbaum 11 — JD from Harvard and PhD from Cornell, visiting assistant professor at Cornell, senior lecturer in Middle Eastern History, and a research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, at Bar-Ilan University (7/17, Joshua, Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, Perspectives Papers on Current Affairs, “Empty Words: Saudi Blustering and US-Saudi Realities”, , WEA)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: ……….. of the ways threatened by some Saudi officials.

Palestinian statehood takes out the link  -- outweighs the plan

Lobe, 9/14/11 [“Agreeing on Less and Less”, Jim, IPS News Service, ]

WASHINGTON, Sep 14, 2011 (IPS) - Accumulating ……….. threat" to the Saudis.

Military dependence checks [will keep ties strong—they don’t want to replace us because their own forces are dedicated to crushing protests]

Jones 2011 – assistant professor of history at Rutgers University (8/24, Toby, The Nation, “Saudi Arabia’s regional reaction”, , WEA)

The Saudi regime is n...... its closest allies.

Plan deters and contains Iran by maintaining the Fifth Fleet– the aff changes impact uniqueness because it makes any war impossible

Solves the da

Haykel 11 – Professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University (8/16, Bernard, Democracy Digest, “Saudis ‘leading counter-revolution’ against Arab Spring”, , WEA)

Saudi Arabia is widely perceived ……….The younger generation of Arabs is no longer prepared to accept unaccountable, corrupt, and brutal governments.

Saudi relations resilient – Bahrain won’t break them

Gause 2011 – F. Gregory, teaches political science at the University of Vermont (Is Saudi Arabia really counter-revolutionary?, Foreign Policy, August 9, 2011, , MCL)

While the sectarian issue should ………… brink of divorce.

And, the useful parts are inevitable

Barzegar 2011 – Kayhan, Director of the Institute for Middle East Strategic Studies and a faculty member at the Science and Research Branch of the Islamic Azad University in Tehran (Iran-Saudi Relations: Time for Active Diplomacy, Campaign against Sanctions and Military intervention in Iran, , July 13, 2011, MCL)

Mosallas: It is generally believed that if …………, it is hard to believe that Saudi Arabia will ever try to challenge the US interests in the region.

Death is the ultimate evil—it is a metaphysical lightning strike that obliterates what it is to be human in our present state—there is no possible warrant for their argument

Paterson, 03 - Department of Philosophy, Providence College, Rhode Island (Craig, “A Life Not Worth

Living?”, Studies in Christian Ethics, )

Contrary to those accounts, I would argue that it is death per se that is really the objective evil for us, not because it deprives us of a prospective future of overall good judged better than the alternative of non-being. It cannot be about harm to a former person who has ceased to exist, for no person actually suffers from the sub-sequent non-participation. Rather, death in itself is an evil to us because it ontologically destroys the current existent subject — it is the ultimate in etaphysical lightening strikes. 80 The evil of death is truly an ontological evil borne by the person who already exists, independently of calculations about better or worse possible lives. Such an evil need not be consciously experienced in order to be an evil for the kind of being a human person is. Death is an evil because of the change in kind it brings about, a change that is destructive of the type of entity that we essentially are. Anything, whether caused naturally or caused by human intervention (intentional or unintentional) that drastically interferes in the process of maintaining the person in existence is an objective evil for the person. What is crucially at stake here, and is dialectically supportive of the self-evidency of the basic good of human life, is that death is a radical interference with the current life process of the kind of being that we are. In consequence, death itself can be credibly thought of as a ‘primitive evil’ for all persons, regardless of the extent to which they are currently or prospectively capable of participating in a full array of the goods of life. 81 In conclusion, concerning willed human actions, it is justifiable to state that any intentional rejection of human life itself cannot therefore be warranted since it is an expression of an ultimate disvalue for the subject, namely, the destruction of the present person; a radical ontological good that we cannot begin to weigh objectively against the travails of life in a rational manner. To deal with the sources of disvalue (pain, suffering, etc.) we should not seek to irrationally destroy the person, the very source and condition of all human possibility.

Overall global violence is decreasing because of US hegemony

Barnett, 9/19/11 - chief analyst at Wikistrat (Thomas, World Politics Review, “The New Rules: Credit the U.S., Not the U.N., for More Peaceful World,” )

Thanks to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and the war.................nce ever seen.

Bahraini Shia have called for a change in US Policy – based in an ethnography

LANDY and HARRISON 5/16 (Joanne and Thomas; “Repression in Bahrain,” )

Zainab Alkhawaja wrote to Pres.......... of democratic rights.

Bahrain opposition wants US support

Bahrain Youth Society for Human Rights, 10 (“Open Letter to Hillary Clinton on Eve of Political Dialogue in Bahrain,” 11/30,

When the United States partic.........he Convention Against Torture, to which they are a signatory.

The anti-imperialism argument is a rationale used to justify authoritarianism

Zunes, 11 - professor of politics at the University of San Francisco (Stephen, “America Blows It on Bahrain”, Foreign Policy in Focus, 3/2, proquest)

In the aftermath of the nonviolent o.........in, have taken up arms.

Prefer utilitarianism

Cummisky, 96  (David, professor of philosophy at Bates, Kantian Consequentialism, p. 131)

Finally, even if one grants that .........y who are saved, the better.

The plan solves genocide

PressTV ’11 “'Bahrain follows Israel genocidal lead'” 4/24

The Manama regime is following an ........ the genocide, tortures and killings that have been happening,” she further explained. Bahrain is home to the US Navy Fifth Fleet.

the k doesn’t implicate the case – the 1ac has a specific solvency mechanism – threats are real and we should act on them – they exist independent of fear

KNUDSEN, 01 (Olav; Professor of Political Science – Sodertorn, “Post-Copenhagen Security Studies,” Security Dialogue, 32:3)

Moreover, I have a problem with t............democratic procedures for dealing with them.

2ac a2 evidence based policymaking

Presumption goes aff – if we win that there is a risk any of our impacts are true it proves it is try or die – they haven’t presented a coherent alternative to such evidence based policymaking  -- default ev if there is a small risk that we are correct

Cowen 4 – Economics, George Mason (Tyler, The Epistemic Problem Does Not Refute Consequentialism, , AG)

If we know for sure which remedy ............pfront benefits of obvious importance.

The 1ac is based in evidence that is verifiable -- it is based on a nomothetic way of evaluating policy – they have compared all relative policies and made conclusions based on those comparisons – key to informed policy.  The weede evidence and the gartzke

This is the only objective approach to policymaking

Fischer, 98 – Professor of Political Science at Rutgers University (Frank, “BEYOND EMPIRICISM: POLICY INQUIRY IN POSTPOSITIVIST PERSPECTIVE”, Published in Policy Studies Journal, Vol. 26. No.1 (Spring, 1998): 129-146)

Neopositivism (or logical e..............isunderstanding lodged in the very concept of a generalizable, value-free objectivity that neopositivists seek to reaffirm and more intensively apply.

Positivism is the necessary epistemology for studying IR—the alternative creates epistemological anarchy and destroys empirical analysis

Brown, 2011 (Vernon, Cardiff U, “The Reflectivist Critique of Positivist IR Theory”,

)

There is a great deal of...........stability needed.

Even if we can’t perfectly predict events like the Arab Spring – scenario planning is still important to lower foreseeable risks

Zakharia, 11 – editor of time, PhD at Harvard (Fareed, “Fareed's Take: Washington needs better crisis preparation”, 5/1,

)

Consider the intelligence community: .,,,,,,, economic or natural disaster, but we can position ourselves to be prepared and to have a little more cash in the bank than we do now.

4. New studies prove that data mining the news could have predicted it – that’s why you should be doing research instead of making tired generalizations about predictions

Ball, 9/13/11 (Philip, “News mining might have predicted Arab Spring,” Nature, )

You could have fore., making predictions at all".

Predictions are good enough to act on.  Their critique sets the bar too high

Chernoff 9 (Fred, Prof. IR and Dir. IR – Colgate U., European Journal of International Relations, “Conventionalism as an Adequate Basis for Policy-Relevant IR Theory”, 15:1, Sage)

For these and other reasons, many ...............to predictive social science.16 The reflexivist commitment to both of these conclusions should be evident from the foregoing discussion.

war kills all life – including animalz

SGR 2003

(Scientists for Global Responsibility, Newsletter, “Does anybody remember the Nuclear Winter?” July 27, )

<Obviously, when a nuclear bomb hits..........d be major problems.>

Perm – do both - We must combine animal rights with political action – failure to do so replicates the problems being criticized

Phelps ’05   the Fund for Animals, Spiritual Outreach Director (Norm, SATYA, “Trying to Walk Before We Can Crawl,” , google)

Unfortunately, what is elegant in ............isclosure, Karen Davis of UPC, Paul Shapiro of COK, and Bruce Friedrich of PETA, all of whom Dunayer takes issue with by name, are friends of mine. Their record of dedicated and effective advocacy on behalf of animal rights is, however, well known throughout the animal rights movement and beyond.)

Human extinction must be prioritized – only way to save the animal kingdom as a whole – this outweighs

Matheny, 07 [Ph. D. candidate, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, “Ought we worry about human extinction?,” ,]

Moral philosophers have not ............mary goal in the next few centuries should be to survive long enough to colonize space.

Anthro isn’t the problem –the logic of the negative’s call for rejection is – proves the alt simply replicates the problem

INDENDENT NEWS COLLECTIVE  98 [Do or Die issue 8. “Biocentrism: Ideology Against Nature“ ]

Both Biocentrism (life/nature/earth-centred) ...........the way out of the contradiction.

Prioritizing the life of human beings should be your prior concern – animals don’t have rights

Cohen, 86 [Professor of Philosophy at Umich , New England Journal of Medicine, “The Case for the Use of Animals in Biomedical Research”, ]

A right, properly understood, is a claim, or potential claim, that one party may exercise against another. The target against whom such a claim may be registered can be a single person, a group, a community, or (perhaps) all humankind. The content of rights claims also varies greatly: repayment of loans, nondiscrimination by employers, noninterference by the state, and so on.......sed on rights. Rights entail obligations, but many of the things one ought to do are in no way tied to another's entitlement. Rights and obligations are not reciprocals of one another, and it is a serious mistake to suppose that they are.

The alternative lowers humans to the level of utilitarian calculability, allowing for authoritarian domination.

Bobertz ’97 Assistant Professor of Law, University of Nebraska College of Law (Bradley, Columbia Journal of Environmental Law, “Of Nature and Nazis,” , lexis-nexis)
 The second part of Ferry's ..........s and the biosphere.

Using fear in the context of democracy assistance is critical to the value to life  -- we come to understand others

Kelsang 99 (Geshe, internationally renowned teacher of Buddhism (, )

A healthy fear of death.......... for future happiness.

Repeating fear rhetoric is good – it allows us to become compassionate and understand true threats – link turns the key

Greenspan, 03 (Miriam Greenspan – Pioneer in the Area of Women’s Psychology – 2003 (“An Excerpt from Healing through the Dark Emotions: The Wisdom of Grief, Fear, and Despair by Miriam Greenspan,” )

"Fear is a very powerful ..........that not just you and I but all of us can live together without fear."

McDaniels evidence about health care – a stasis is possible – the world is knowable we have presented a counter means.

We all understand risk differently – no one generalization fits this

STEARNS ’06 (Peter N.; Professor of History – George Mason University, American Fear: The Causes and Consequences of High Anxiety, p. 4)

Fear is a variable social ........ormulations where fear is involved.

The aff is consistent with the logic of deterrence that is key to ontological security

Lupovici 8 – Post-Doctoral Fellow Munk Centre for International Studies University of Toronto (Amir, “Why the Cold War Practices of Deterrence are Still Prevalent: Physical Security, Ontological Security and Strategic Discourse,”   

Since deterrence ......critical benefits of "anxiety."

Turn – Avoidance:

a) Fear is inevitable – attempts to avoid it make the situation worse

STEARNS ’06 (Peter N.; Professor of History – George Mason University, American Fear: The Causes and Consequences of High Anxiety, p. x-xi)

A century ago, a number of ......reassess the results.

b) Leads to bad forms of fear

STEARNS ’06 (Peter N.; Professor of History – George Mason University, American Fear: The Causes and Consequences of High Anxiety, p. 201-2)

Fear has two major .......s inescapable.

1ac plan (1)

The United States federal government should provide substantial expertise to mediate a high level dialogue between the government of Bahrain and proponents of democratic constitutional reform.

1ac – advantage one (1)

Advantage one is the Shia ---

US failure to mediate a dialogue over political reform will cause Iranian influence in Bahrain and radicalize Shia regionally

Al-Ahmed & Jacobs 11 – Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs & Gulf Policy Analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs (Ali & Joshua, “The Crisis in Bahrain” Institute for Gulf Affairs, May 2011, http://www.scribd.com/doc/59873023/Bahrain-Policy-Paper, MCL)

Analysis and Recommendations for US ……… could actually influence policy in the Gulf is narrowing. There is a more limited range of actions the US can effectively take compared with the opportunities available months ago when the interventions were first launched. After so much inaction, it is implausible to effect a radical reversal of US policy and declare opposition to the intervention. However, there is still plenty of time and maneuvering room to begin applying pressure and to start sketching the contours of a new policy.

Key Recommendations:

The US must engage with the primary Gulf powers in private to try and extract promises for staged withdrawals from Bahrain. It is easier to begin lobbying for this now that the State of Emergency has ended. It is important to secure the withdrawal of GCC troops as a precondition for dialogue and negotiations.

 Reinforce US commitments and security guarantees to the UAE and Saudi Arabia against Iran in an attempt to reassure them and convince them to loosen their hold on Bahrain. It must be made clear that the US gives the Iranian threat the appropriate weight and that any concrete Iranian action or aggression will be met by the United States.

 The administration should directly engage King Hamad and the Bahraini government and insist on the need to relax the security apparatus and to extend another invitation for high level dialogue and negotiation. The US has the ability to act as a potential mediator between the various opposition groups and the Bahraini Crown. It is an option that provides a potential “out” for some of the reformers/moderates in the royal family, and can legitimize the opposition in the wake of the crisis.

Causes Saudi Iran War

Shaikh, 11 [3/23/11, Salman Director of the Brookings Institution's Doha Center and Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy Shaikh previously served as the Special Assistant for the Middle East and Asia to the United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs and as an adviser to former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, , ]  

While US and international ……….. with the job of achieving this for the future of Bahrain, the Gulf region, and the entire Middle East.

Goes global and nuclear

Gold, 07 [Thomas J., Masters in Strategic Intelligence, Joint Military Intelligence College, Nuclear Conflict in the Middle East: An Analysis of Future Events, p. 53-55]

If the political, ethnic, and ………. a possibility.

Causes widespread Saudi unrest and oil Shocks

Maginnis 11 Robert, retired Army lieutenant colonel, national security and foreign affairs analyst, "Bahrain's No Egypt", 2/21, Human Events,

First, Iran would use a ………….. oil shipments pass. 

Causes economic collapse

Babej 11 - Contributor to Forbes [Marc E. Babej, “A Saudi Oil Supply Disruption-The Ultimate Marketing Crisis Scenario,” Forbes, 3/29/2011 @ 01:48PM |pg.  http://www.forbes.com/sites/marcbabej/2011/03/29/a-saudi-oil-supply-disruption-the-ultimate-marketing-crisis-scenario/] 

* Vance Scott - Partner at A.T. Kearney who leads the Energy and Chemicals Practice in the Americas.

And still: in 2011, the term “………….. hit. Companies would try to minimize shipping, rethink their supply chains and increase prices for products containing oil derivatives.

Nuclear war

O'Donnell, 9 (Sean, Baltimore Republican Examiner, a graduate student at the University of Baltimore studying law and ethics, B.A. in History from the University of Maryland, a Squad Leader in the Marine Corps Reserve, Will this recession lead to World War III?

February 26, http://www.examiner.com/x-3108-Baltimore-Republican-Examiner~y2009m2d26-Will-this-recession-lead-to-World-War-III#comments)

Could the current ………. terrifying possibility of World War III is averted. However sometimes history repeats itself.

The plan engages the Shia and checks Iranian influence

Cooley and Nexon, 11 – Associate Professor of Political Science at Barnard College and a member of Columbia University's Arnold A. Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies, AND Daniel, Associate Professor in the School of Foreign Service and the Department of Government at Georgetown University (Bahrain's Base Politics, Foreign Affairs, April 5, 2011, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics, MCL)

Second, Washington ……..crisis hits than be forced to scramble after it is under way.

US support deescalates Shiite resentment regionally

Terrill, 11 [– Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute (Andrew, “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World,” http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/The-Arab-Spring-and-the-Future-of-US-Interests/2011/8/2#bahrain)]

The conflict in Bahrain ………… to the needs of Bahraini Shi'ites.

1ac – advantage two (1)

Advantage two is the fleet ----

Tensions are escalating now -- the status quo is subtle pressure 

Roach, 10/24/11 [“Arab Autumn: Elections, Crackdowns, and Sectarian Tensions Part III”, Morgan, Heritage Foundation, ]

Bahrain. Despite attempts by ……. in deterring Iranian influence.

The alt is collapse of regional security

POMED, 10/4/11 [ “ Bahrain: The Forgotten Uprising in the Arab Spring The Woodrow Wilson Center 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, D.C. Tuesday October 4, 2011, 12 p.m. to 1 p.m.”, ]

Al-Khawaja began her presentation by …… spark a more violent conflict with the potential to spread across the region.

Even low instability results in fifth fleet kick out

Lippman, 9/22/11 - adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute and former Middle East bureau chief of the Washington Post (Thomas, “ The U.S. Dilemma in Bahrain,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/POMED-Policy-Brief_Lippman.pdf)

Of the Arab countries in which political unrest ………. but it may be left with no choice given the current turmoil.

Only dialogue prevents hardline backlash that severs the security relationship

Bockenfeld, 10/4/11 [Cole, POMED’s Director of Advocacy and Editor of the POMED Wire blog and the Weekly Wire digest  He has studied the Middle East for more than six years with a focus on U.S. and Middle Eastern politics, history, and the Arabic language at the University of Arkansas, Georgetown University, and Al al-Bayt University in Mafraq, Jordan.  Prior to joining POMED, he worked for the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) on electoral assistance programs in Iraq, Lebanon, Morocco, and the West Bank and Gaza, including fieldwork in Beirut and Baghdad.  He also conducted research with the Center for Islam and Democracy (CSID) in Amman. “Protecting the US-Bahraini relationship”, ]

Washington, DC - The United ……….. meaningful reform and accountability, or risk the very scenario both wish to avoid.

Excessive pressure will create fissures in the relationship and collapse deterrence credibility – the plan is the key middle path

Darling, 11 - an international military markets analyst with Forecast International Inc., an aerospace and defense research company. A graduate of Kansas State University with a degree in history, he specializes in the European and Middle Eastern regions at Forecast (Daniel, “Don’t Expect a Split in the U.S.-Bahrain Relationship,” 2/22, The Faster Times,

http://www.thefastertimes.com/defensespending/2011/02/22/dont-expect-a-split-in-the-u-s-bahrain-relationship/

It is no surprise, therefore, that …… U.S. is not going to alienate itself from those nations allied to its interests.

Kick out collapses regional power projection, increases Iranian influence and causes a Saudi Iran war

De Paiva, 10/21/11 [Bruno, analyst focusing on Geopolitics in Asia and Indian Ocean regions and North Korean issues He is the owner and writer of the blog , “Bahrain Significant To US Interests Despite Hold In Arms Sale”, ]

Bahrain is highly significant ……… in the region.

Iranian adventurism Global Nuclear War

Ben-Meir 7Alon Ben-Meir, professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, 2/6/07, Realpolitik: Ending Iran's defiance,

Feeling emboldened ………… major U.S. punitive measures.

Kick out independently collapses US leadership

Goodspeed, 11 [Peter, award winning reporter for the National Post February 14^th, Goodspeed Analysis: Unrest in Bahrain could threaten key U.S. military outpost”, http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/02/14/peter-goodspeed-unrest-in-bahrain-could-threaten-key-u-s-military-outpost/]

As riot police in Bahrain attacked hundreds of pro-democracy demonstrators Monday with tear gas, rubber bullets and concussion grenades, U.S. strategic interests in the Gulf appeared poised to receive yet another battering from …… its naval base in Bahrain. But all those plans could be swept aside if the political storm raging elsewhere in the Arab world suddenly engulfs the emirate.

Collapses hegemony

Etzioni, 11 [ Director of the Institute for Communitarian Policy Studies, George Wash U. Frmr sociology prof at Columbia PhD in sociology from UC Berkeley Amitai, The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility, March-April 2011, Military Review, ]

As of the beginning of 2011, these …… overseas.

And, global naval power

Cropsey, 10 Seth, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, former Naval Officer and deputy senior under secretary of the Navy in the administration of Reagan and BushII, "The US Navy in Distress", Strategic Analysis, Vol. 34 No. 1, January,

American maritime strategy ……… surrendered slowly over decades.

Great power war

Barnett, 11 [Thomas P.M. Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads]

Events in Libya are a ……….. suspicious of one another. And if you know your history, that should make you nervous.           

Plan solves – supporting genuine dialogue creates space for reform

Aziz and Musalem, 11 – *legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law, holds an M.A. in Middle Eastern studies from the University of Texas AND **holds degrees in sociology as well as Middle Eastern language and cultures. Mr. Musalem grew up in Bahrain, where he has conducted social research, and has been a frequent visitor to the county over the past decade (Sahar and Abdullah, “Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement,” http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf)

Notwithstanding this ……… in Bahrain and democracy in the Middle East is no longer a lofty ideal; it is in the United States’ national interest.

US influence can create a roadmap for a real dialogue – Bahrain will say yes if the US leads the process

POMED, 11 – Project on Middle East Democracy. Panelists included Joe Stork, Deputy Director of Middle East and North Africa Division, Human Rights Watch; Hans Hogrefe, Chief Policy Officer and Washington Director, Physicians for Human Rights; Leslie Campbell, Senior Associate and Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa, National Democratic Institute; and Ambassador Martin Indyk, Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institution. (Event Summary of “Tensions in the Persian Gulf after the Arab Uprisings: Implications for U.S. Policy”, 6/29, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Tensions_in_the_Persian_Gulf_June_29_20111.pdf

Joe Stork spoke first, providing a …………. engagement with Bahraini authorities on a regular basis.

Even if dialogue fails, the plan signals a change in posture that builds goodwill with future governments

Slackman, 11 (Michael, “Dim View of U.S. Posture Toward Bahraini Shiites Is Described,” New York Times, 2/21, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/22/world/middleeast/22bahrain.html?pagewanted=all)

MANAMA, Bahrain — The ………… he was not authorized to speak to the news media.

1ac – advantage three (1)

Advantage three is credibility -- 

The plan reverses decades of hypocrisy – supporting rights, while maintaining a tangible military presence is critical to international credibility 

Lagon, 11 [October, “Promoting Human Rights: Is U.S. Consistency Desirable or Possible?  A Markets and Democracy Brief”, , Adjunct Senior Fellow for Human Rights, ]

A broad-minded view is that more ………..istency based on these precepts will better serve U.S. and global interests.

The plan changes current US policy – Bahrain is critical to overall credibility  

Cunningham, 9/18/11 [Finnian, global Research Correspondent based in Belfast, Ireland He was expelled from Bahrain for his critical journalism on 18 June 2011, Bahrain: Is Washington Preparing For ‘Regime Change’ in PR Disaster Kingdom?, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=26630]

The persistence of pro-democracy ………….. it throws a clunking big spanner in US foreign policy wheels.

 Credibility is essential for successful smart power

Armitage and Nye 2007 – Richard L, Deputy Secretary of State from 2001 to 2005 and Joseph S., former assistant secretary of defense, teaches political science at Harvard, they co-chaired the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Commission on Smart Power (Time for Smart Power, Beifer Center at Harvard, , MCL)

The world is dissatisfied with ………..obal challenges. We call this smart power.

Solves cyberwarfare

Barnett et al 9 (Roger, Ph.D. Professor Emeritus, U.S. Naval War College, Newport, Rhode Island; Author, Asymmetrical Warfare: Today’s Challenge to U.S. Military Power, along with 30+ other specialists on smart power and asymmetric threats including over 10 PHD’s, “Employing Smart Power,” http://asymmetricthreat.net/docs/asymmetric_threat_3_paper.pdf)

There is no better example of …………applicable to cybersecurity.

Nuclear war

Habiger 10 (Eugue, Retired Air Force General, Cyberwarfare and Cyberterrorism, The Cyber Security Institute, 2/1, p. 11-19)

However, there are reasons to believe that what is going on now amounts to a fundamental shift as opposed to business as usual. Today’s network exploitation or information operation trespasses ……… of marked, direct competition. Clearly, there a sharp differences between current U.S. relations with these two nations and relations between the US and Japan just prior to World War II. However, from a strategic defense perspective, there are enough warning signs to warrant preparation.

And accidental war that escalates

Fritz 9 (Jason, Former Captain of the U.S. Army, July, Hacking Nuclear Command and Control, www.icnnd.org/Documents/Jason_Fritz_Hacking_NC2.doc)

This paper will analyse the ……., .. directly.

The counterplan rocks the boat too hard – risks escalation of the conflict
McManus, 11 – Washington Columnist for the LA Times (Doyle, “Rattling the palace windows in the Persian Gulf,” LA Times, 2/20,
http://articles.latimes.com/2011/feb/20/opinion/la-oe-mcmanus-column-bahrain-20110220
So the aim of U.S...history is calling our bluff.

Threat fails – they will cause the US bluff
Traub, 11 - contributing writer for the New York Times Magazine and author of, most recently, The Freedom Agenda "Terms of Engagement," his column for ForeignPolicy.com, runs weekly (James, “Friend Request,” 5/27, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/05/27/friend_request
And maybe they were in no position ...out whether he meant what he said.

GCC fills in
Knigge 2011 – Michael, headed up the German editorial team of DW-WORLD.DE since 2004. Previously, he worked as a reporter for the English service of Deutsche Welle Radio, as well as for various news agencies (Washington has vested interest but little leverage in Bahrain, deutsche well, http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,14941531,00.html, March 25, 2011, MCL)
~** Graeme Herd, who heads the International Security Program at the Geneva Center for Security Policy
"But that's a hard sell...it's coming from the GCC," says Herd.

7. Links to politics
Turse 11 – Nick, historian, essayist, investigative journalist, the associate editor of TomDispatch.com, and currently a fellow at Harvard University’s Radcliffe Institute (How the Tiny Kingdom of Bahrain Strong-Armed the President of the United States, Foreign Policy in Focus, a project for the Institute for Policy Studies, 3/16, http://www.fpif.org/articles/the_arab_lobby, MCL)
In the midst of the violence, ...and Bahraini naval forces."

9. They’ll just engage in sham reforms to deflect criticism
Washington Post Sept 9, 2011 – Bahrain needs US Attention Now, Washington post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/bahrain-needs-us-attention-now/2011/09/09/gIQAjoH9FK_story.html, MCL
BAHRAIN HAS BECOME the ...has been in office since 1971. 

Russian relations resilient—we have a structured framework to deal with issues
Collins 2009 – Director of the Russia and Eurasia Program for the Carnegie Endowment, U.S. Ambassador to the Russian Federation from 1997 to 2001, recipient of the Secretary of State's Award for Distinguished Service (7/28, James, Carnegie Endowment, “Keeping Up the Momentum with Moscow”, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=23427, WEA)
In this regard, the agreement
framework for further work.

Won’t pass, capital fails, and other issues drain capital first, specifically infrastructure
Lightman 10-28 (David,- writer for McClatchy Newspapers“Partisan divisions prevent Congress from passing jobs bills”)
WASHINGTON — After weeks
wide range of infrastructure programs.

Plan popular – strong bipartisan support
Dem Digest, 11 [September 8th, “9/11 restored bipartisan consensus on strategic value of democracy assistance”http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/09/911-restored-bipartisan-consensus-on-strategic-value-of-democracy-assistance/]
If 9/11 had an inadvertently
here at home is worthy of note.”

Detainee Bill first
Johnson 10-25 (Carrie,- political correspondent for NPR “Big Fight Brewing In Senate Over Defense Policy Bill”)
A big fight is brewing
be coming to a head soon.

Solyndra first
Politico 10-28 (“House panel set to subpoena W.H. for Solyndra docs”)
The House Energy and Commerce subcommittee
OMB documents on Solyndra.

That drains capital
Cavanaugh 10-16 (Tim,- senior editor at Reason magazine “Obama’s Solyndra Talking Cure Fails: Little scandal, big story”)
The scandal over Solyndra,
the rest of us have to spend with them.

Political capital not key
Dickinson, 09 [Matthew, professor of political science at Middlebury College and taught previously at Harvard University Presidential Power: A NonPartisan Analysis of Presidential Politics, “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power,” http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/]
What is of more interest to me, however
present Sotomayor as his nominee.

Winner’s win
Marshall, 11 [Bryan, Miami University University of Tennessee & Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, “Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force”, Sept, Presidential Studies Quarterly 41]
Presidents rely heavily on Congress
political capital at home (Fordham 2002).

Link’s isn’t unique ---
(A) Infrastructure funding
Johnson 10-24 (Fawn,- correspondent for the National Journal)
President Obama's jobs bill ...transportation funding system.  

1ar

Our internal link to the economy outweighs
The Economist 3-3-2011; The 2011 oil shock More of a threat to the world economy than investors seem to think http://www.economist.com/node/18281774
THE price of oil has had
is likely to propose such reforms right now.

Doesn’t help the economy
NewsMax.com, 10-20-11, p. http://www.newsmax.com/StreetTalk/Moody-Zandi-Chance-Recession/2011/10/20/id/415135
"It is clear that short-term
North Carolina, according to Bloomberg.

More ev --- controversies next week, and Chu will testify
The Hill 10-25
(“OVERNIGHT ENERGY: Next stage of Solyndra probe takes shape”)
State of play: The GOP's point man on
that lower-level DOE officials can testify first.

That specifically drains capital
Restruccia 9-29
(Andrew,- writer for the Hill “GOP’s Solyndra probe threatens to ensnare Energy Secretary Chu”)
The controversy over
the Union of Concerned Scientists.   

Takes out the da
Laing 10-9
(Keith, writer for the Hill “Obama’s infrastructure bank proposal faces first test in Republican-led House”)
If Obama’s message
move the needle with Congress.

Kills capital
Restuccia 9-14  (Andrew,- writer for The Hill’s energy blog “White House scrambles to eclipse GOP’s attack on Solyndra solar”
Republicans blasted Obama
as economic stimulus.

Aff: Michigan PD

Round # 7  Tournament: Wake

vs:Oklahoma GL

Judge:Quigley, Dylan

Plan Text

Same

1ac Advantages

Same

2ac Offense

Survival first

Permutation

Objectification k2 Human survival

1AC (Heg, etc) is a statistical proof/defense of plan’s methodology

1% risk of extinction comes first

Positivism Good

Cede political

1ar Strategy

Permutation

Must Help protestors

>Morals

>Great Power War

Great Power war o/ws

We solve structural violence

2ar Strategy

Survival first

Alt Cede’s political

Structural violence arugments

Our knowledge production/positivism/historical basis good

Aff:Michigan PD

Round # 5  Tournament: Shirley

vs: Emory CP

Judge: Jonah Feldman

Plan Text

USFG high level mediation with Bahrain

(same as before)

1ac Advantages

Shia Adv: oil

Iran/Saudi

Fleet adv: defense

Hegemony

Same impacts

2ac Offense

Political Reform key

No add-ons

1ar Strategy

Condo

Saudi DA

CP (pol reform key)

2ar Strategy

Conditionality 

1ac the plan (1)

The United States federal government should provide substantial support to mediate a high level dialogue between the government of Bahrain and proponents of democratic constitutional reform.

1ac fleet (1)

Advantage one is the Fleet --

The BICI report has brought the region to the brink of violence

Gershman, 12/1/11 [Carl, President of the National Endowment for Democracy, “The Price of Freedom and Democracy: Defiant Bahrainis and the Arab Spring”, http://www.ned.org/about/board/meet-our-president/archived-presentations-and-articles/the-price-of-freedom-and-democracy]

I want to begin by …… much greater violence than we’ve seen so far.

And, that violence is targeted towards the US

Cunningham, 1/2/12 [Finian, Global Research’s Middle East and East Africa correspondent, “Bahrain: Crushing Pro-Democracy Protests. American and British Police Chiefs Step Up State Repression”, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=28452]

“The violence is worse than ever…..is the burning of American flags.

And, mass violence causes fleet kick out

Lippman, 11 [9/22, 11, adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute and former Middle East bureau chief of the Washington Post (Thomas, “ The U.S. Dilemma in Bahrain,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/POMED-Policy-Brief_Lippman.pdf]

From a security perspective, it is just ……… given the current turmoil.

And, uncertainty alone collapses deterrence -- and undermines sustainable Gulf military presence  

Noble, 11 [7/21, Stimson Center, “Anchors Away: The future of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain”, http://www.stimson.org/spotlight/the-us-fifth-fleet-in-bahrain/]

The home base of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet has become a subject of discussion for American policymakers since large-scale protests broke out in Bahrain this past February. Located in the Persian Gulf near key Saudi Arabian oil fields, Bahrain has ……… scenarios from materializing.

The impact is the collapse of hegemony

CBS News, 12/12/11 [“Arab Spring's uprisings reshape U.S. influence”, http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57341224/arab-springs-uprisings-reshape-u.s-influence/]

The case is often made that ………., but not in others."

And, Bahrain is key – power projection

Goodspeed, 11 [Peter, award winning reporter for the National Post February 14^th, Goodspeed Analysis: Unrest in Bahrain could threaten key U.S. military outpost”, http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/02/14/peter-goodspeed-unrest-in-bahrain-could-threaten-key-u-s-military-outpost/]

As riot police in Bahrain attacked hundreds of ……….engulfs the emirate.

And, sends a signal that kills perception of US resolve

Etzioni, 11 [Director of the Institute for Communitarian Policy Studies, George Wash U. Frmr sociology prof at Columbia PhD in sociology from UC Berkeley Amitai, The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility, March-April 2011, Military Review, http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf]

As of the beginning of 2011, these ………commitments overseas.

And, failure to walk a fine line between assisting democracy and security interests collapses basing agreements

Cooley, 11 [Alexander Cooley, Foreign Affairs, Tow Professor of Political Science at Barnard College in New York, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show]

Washington's balancing act ……… than be forced to scramble after it is under way.

And, such a collapse would end the US strategic relationship with Bahrain

Bockenfeld, 11 [10/4/11, Cole, POMED’s Director of Advocacy and Editor of the POMED Wire blog and the Weekly Wire digest  He has studied the Middle East for more than six years with a focus on U.S. and Middle Eastern politics, history, and the Arabic language at the University of Arkansas, Georgetown University, and Al al-Bayt University in Mafraq, Jordan.  Prior to joining POMED, he worked for the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) on electoral assistance programs in Iraq, Lebanon, Morocco, and the West Bank and Gaza, including fieldwork in Beirut and Baghdad.  He also conducted research with the Center for Islam and Democracy (CSID) in Amman. “Protecting the US-Bahraini relationship”, http://www.commongroundnews.org/article.php id=30471&lan=en&sp=0&isNew=1&partner=rss&emc=rss]

Washington, DC - The United States …………, or risk the very scenario both wish to avoid.

And, decline unglues the global system – the impact is great power war

Hirsh, 12/19/11 [former Foreign Editor and chief correspondent for Newsweek written for Foreign Affairs, and Washington Monthly Hirsh was co-winner of the Overseas Press Club award for best magazine reporting from abroad in 2001 . “The End of the American Interlude”, http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/the-end-of-the-american-interlude-20111215]

Welcome to the future. What we ………. are rising—conflict is much more likely.

Kick out destroys Gulf-based BMD --- Bahrain’s the only viable port ---stabilizes the Middle East and deters war

Ellison 11—Riki, chairman and founder of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, "Unstable Momentum in Middle East Causes More US Need for Missile Defense", Feb 22, PR Newswire, 

Today, for the first time in thirty years ……….. our world safer.

1ac shia (1)

Advantage two is the Shia --

US failure to mediate a dialogue radicalizes Shia and spurs widespread sectarianism

Al-Ahmed & Jacobs 11 – Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs & Gulf Policy Analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs (Ali & Joshua, “The Crisis in Bahrain” Institute for Gulf Affairs, May 2011, http://www.scribd.com/doc/59873023/Bahrain-Policy-Paper, MCL)    

Analysis and Recommendations for US Policy While it ……… family, and can legitimize the opposition in the wake of the crisis.

Sectarianism causes extinction

Scheuer, 2011 – Michael, professor of security studies at Georgetown spent twenty-two years in the CIA and is the author of Imperial Hubris: Why the West is Losing the War on Terrorism (The Sum of All Fears, The National Interest, March 17, 2011, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-sum-all-fears-5032?page=show, MCL)

With the West focused on Libya, Egypt, and …….. "the sum of all fears."

And, Bahraini instability spills over to the Saudi eastern province – causes an oil shock and Saudi Iran war 

Bauer, 11 [November, “Further Bahrain Unrest Would Be Saudi Arabia's Worst Nightmare”, William, Specialising in Middle-Eastern and Maghreb affairs, William has worked and studied in the Levant, North-Africa and the Gulf, as well as having traveled extensively throughout the MENA region. His BA was in Middle-Eastern Studies and Arabic, from the Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies at the University of Exeter (UK), http://www.policymic.com/articles/further-bahrain-unrest-would-be-saudi-arabia-s-worst-nightmare]

For Saudi Arabia, this is a worrying ……… of socio-economic crisis and political unrest.

And, that shock would be violent

Babej 11 - Contributor to Forbes [Marc E. Babej, “A Saudi Oil Supply Disruption-The Ultimate Marketing Crisis Scenario,” Forbes, 3/29/2011 @ 01:48PM |pg.  http://www.forbes.com/sites/marcbabej/2011/03/29/a-saudi-oil-supply-disruption-the-ultimate-marketing-crisis-scenario/] 

This morning, I had a very revealing conversation with Vance Scott, a Partner at A.T. Kearney who leads the Energy and Chemicals Practice in the Americas. What might a marketing strategist have to discuss with an oil analyst, you ask? These days: lots – ………. and increase prices for products containing oil derivatives.

Nuclear war

Henderson 7 (Climate Change, Peak Oil And Nuclear War By Bill Henderson 24 February, 2007 Countercurrents.org

A steep spike in the price of oil, ………… nuclear attack.

Saudi Iran war goes nuclear

London, 10 [president of Hudson Institute and professor emeritus of New York University, Herbert,  “The Coming Crisis In The Middle East,” June 28, 2010, http://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east]

The coming storm in the Middle East is ………… nuclear exchange.

US support de-escalates Shiite resentment regionally

Terrill, 11 [Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute (Andrew, “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World,” http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/The-Arab-Spring-and-the-Future-of-US-Interests/2011/8/2#bahrain)]

The conflict in Bahrain …….. needs of Bahraini Shi'ites.

1ac solvency

And, the opposition groups have called for a “serious dialogue” – evidence referencing the “national dialogue” doesn’t apply – all actors are now ready to come to the table

AFP, 12/19/11 [“Bahrain opposition urges talks”, Agente France Press, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gzDdkobtrfgmiVO69MsqNU9nHAJg?docId=CNG.65f564f60f03ebab6c4103aa632a6e7a.361]

MANAMA — Bahrain opposition groups ……..February and March.

And, only the US has the leverage to break the current political deadlock – roundtable negotiations are vital

Gershman, 12/1/11 [Carl, President of the National Endowment for Democracy, “The Price of Freedom and Democracy: Defiant Bahrainis and the Arab Spring”, http://www.ned.org/about/board/meet-our-president/archived-presentations-and-articles/the-price-of-freedom-and-democracy]

In fact, if there is not an ……… and realize its full potential.

Plan solves – supporting genuine dialogue creates space for reform

Aziz and Musalem, 11 – *legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law, holds an M.A. in Middle Eastern studies from the University of Texas AND **holds degrees in sociology as well as Middle Eastern language and cultures. Mr. Musalem grew up in Bahrain, where he has conducted social research, and has been a frequent visitor to the county over the past decade (Sahar and Abdullah, “Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement,” http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf)

Notwithstanding this ….. no longer a lofty ideal; it is in the United States’ national interest.

And, the US is the only actor with the influence to prevent Saudi meddling –action shows support and brings all actors to the table

Abrams, 11/25/11 [Elliot, former senior director for the Near East and deputy national security adviser handling Middle East affairs in the George W. Bush administration. He is now a senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, where he writes the blog Pressure Points, “Abrams: Last Chance of Bahrain”, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/25/abrams-last-chance-for-bahrain/]

The report this week by the ……. of his dynasty depends on the decisions he makes in the coming months.

The likelihood of middle east war is high and escalates globally because of misperceptions

Russell, 9 – Editor of Strategic Insights, Senior Lecturer Department of National Security Affairs (James, Spring, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” Security Studies Center Proliferation Papers, http://www.ifri.org/downloads/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf)

Strategic stability in the region . of the region, with substantial risk for the entire world.