1ac plan
The United States federal government should provide substantial advisory support to mediate a high level dialogue between the government of Bahrain and proponents of democratic constitutional reform.
1ac fifth fleet advantage
CONTENTION ONE IS THE FIFTH FLEET
The Bahraini Dialogue failed because of the lack of US involvement – gridlocked politics will bring sectarian violence.
Lippman, 9/22/11 - adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute and former Middle East bureau chief of the Washington Post (Thomas, “ The U.S. Dilemma in Bahrain,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/POMED-Policy-Brief_Lippman.pdf)
The few promising measures announced…, the Bahrain government swiftly reversed course.
New violence will kick out the Fifth Fleet
Lippman, 9/22/11 - adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute and former Middle East bureau chief of the Washington Post (Thomas, “ The U.S. Dilemma in Bahrain,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/POMED-Policy-Brief_Lippman.pdf)
Of the Arab countries in which political… no choice given the current turmoil.
Fifth Fleet presence is key to naval power projection—deters Iranian adventurism
Goodspeed 11—award winning reporter for the National Post (Peter, "Goodspeed Anaylsis: Unrest in Bahrain could threaten key US military outposts", 2/14, National Post, http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/02/14/peter-goodspeed-unrest-in-bahrain-could-threaten-key-u-s-military-outpost/
There are concerns large-scale Shiite … elsewhere in the Arab world suddenly engulfs the emirate.
The perception of Iranian deterrence solidifies alliances and secures US power
Etzioni 11—Director of the Institute for Communitarian Policy Studies, George Wash U. Frmr sociology prof at Columbia. PhD in sociology from UC Berkeley, Amitai, The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility, March-April 2011, Military Review, http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf)
As of the beginning of 2011, these Sunni nations… global responsibilities and live up to its commitments overseas.
Heg is good
Barnett, 11 - chief analyst at Wikistrat, former visiting scholar at the University of Tennessee’s Howard Baker Center for Public Policy and a visiting strategist at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies (Thomas, World Politics Review, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” 3/7, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads
Events in Libya are a further … battle deaths from state-based conflicts.
Loss of the Fifth Fleet causes external powers to fight over oil – escalates Asian energy conflicts
Mead ‘7 (Walter, Senior Fellow @ CFR, Wall Street Journal, “Why We’re in the Gulf”, 12-27, http://docs.google.com/View?docid=ah6sxjndq9qq_387kw2kfkm9)
For the past few centuries, a global economic … the security of the Persian Gulf states one of America's very highest international priorities.
Nuke war
Emmott, 8 - former editor of the Economist (Bill, ‘Power rises in the east,’ The Australian, June 4, pg. l/n
As well as knitting them, however, this drama is … East China Sea and the Senkaku-Diaoyutai islands, Taiwan and Pakistan.
Plan solves – supporting genuine dialogue creates space for political reform
Aziz and Musalem, 11 – *legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law, holds an M.A. in Middle Eastern studies from the University of Texas AND holds degrees in sociology as well as Middle Eastern language and cultures. Mr. Musalem grew up in Bahrain, where he has conducted social research, and has been a frequent visitor to the county over the past decade (Sahar and Abdullah, “Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement,” http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf)**
Notwithstanding this intervention, Washington … no longer a lofty ideal; it is in the United States’ national interest.
Bahrain will say yes if the US leads the process
POMED, 11 – Project on Middle East Democracy. Panelists included Joe Stork, Deputy Director of Middle East and North Africa Division, Human Rights Watch; Hans Hogrefe, Chief Policy Officer and Washington Director, Physicians for Human Rights; Leslie Campbell, Senior Associate and Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa, National Democratic Institute; and Ambassador Martin Indyk, Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institution. (Event Summary of “Tensions in the Persian Gulf after the Arab Uprisings: Implications for U.S. Policy”, 6/29,
http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Tensions_in_the_Persian_Gulf_June_29_20111.pdf
Joe Stork spoke first, providing a historical account … direct engagement with Bahraini authorities on a regular basis.
1ac Shia advantage
CONTENTION 2 IS THE SHIA
Lack of dialogue will cause Iranian intervention and radicalize Shia regionally
Al-Ahmed & Jacobs 11 – Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs & Gulf Policy Analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs (Ali & Joshua, “The Crisis in Bahrain” Institute for Gulf Affairs, May 2011, http://www.scribd.com/doc/59873023/Bahrain-Policy-Paper, MCL)
Analysis and Recommendations for US Policy While it may be possible for the US …and can legitimize the opposition in the wake of the crisis.
This will escalate Saudi-Iran proxy conflicts to a full scale war.
Shaikh, 11 [3/23/11, Salman Director of the Brookings Institution's Doha Center and Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy Shaikh previously served as the Special Assistant for the Middle East and Asia to the United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs and as an adviser to former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers-Salman Shaikh, http://www.troubledkashmir.com/index.php/world-press-today/615-the-bahrain-crisis-and-its-regional-dangers-salman-shaikh]
While US and international attention is focused …Bahrain, the Gulf region, and the entire Middle East.
Middle East war goes global and nuclear
Gold, 07 [Thomas J., Masters in Strategic Intelligence, Joint Military Intelligence College, Nuclear Conflict in the Middle East: An Analysis of Future Events, p. 53-55]
If the political, ethnic, and military policies, … Escalation to regional or global nuclear war is now a possibility.
Expanding Iranian influence will destabilize Saudi Arabia – causes oil shocks and escalates to war
Maginnis 11—Robert, retired Army lieutenant colonel, national security and foreign affairs analyst, "Bahrain's No Egypt", 2/21, Human Events, http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=41912
First, Iran would use a Bahrain platform to … through which half of the world’s seaborne oil shipments pass.
Oil price will reach $300 in the near term – collapses the economy
Babej 11 - Contributor to Forbes [Marc E. Babej, “A Saudi Oil Supply Disruption-The Ultimate Marketing Crisis Scenario,” Forbes, 3/29/2011 @ 01:48PM |pg. http://www.forbes.com/sites/marcbabej/2011/03/29/a-saudi-oil-supply-disruption-the-ultimate-marketing-crisis-scenario/] * Vance Scott - Partner at A.T. Kearney who leads the Energy and Chemicals Practice in the Americas.
And still: in 2011, the term “unlikely” doesn’t quite …supply chains and increase prices for products containing oil derivatives.
Continued decline causes global war and makes every social crisis inevitable.
Green and Schrage 2009 – *Senior Advisor and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Associate Professor at Georgetown University, CSIS Scholl Chair in International Business and a former senior official with the US Trade Representative's Office, State Department and Ways & Means Committee (3/26, Michael and Steven, Asia Times, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economy/KC26Dk01.html, WEA)
Facing the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, …, protectionism could still unravel the international system through other guises.
The plan engages the Shia and checks Iranian influence
Cooley and Nexon, 11 – Associate Professor of Political Science at Barnard College and a member of Columbia University's Arnold A. Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies, AND Daniel, Associate Professor in the School of Foreign Service and the Department of Government at Georgetown University (Bahrain's Base Politics, Foreign Affairs, April 5, 2011, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics, MCL)
Second, Washington needs to avoid thinking … overly antagonize current governments. But it is better to gain flexibility before the next political crisis hits than be forced to scramble after it is under way.
Support for reforms key to de-escalating Shia resentment regionally
Terrill, 8/2/11 – Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute (Andrew, “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World,” http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/The-Arab-Spring-and-the-Future-of-US-Interests/2011/8/2#bahrain)
The conflict in Bahrain remains serious even after …this situation may be reparable if strong attention is paid to the needs of Bahraini Shi'ites.
Even if dialogue fails, the plan signals a change in posture that builds goodwill with future governments
Slackman, 11 (Michael, “Dim View of U.S. Posture Toward Bahraini Shiites Is Described,” New York Times, 2/21, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/22/world/middleeast/22bahrain.html?pagewanted=all)
MANAMA, Bahrain — The United States military undermined efforts to … United States government official in Bahrain who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the news media.
plan is the best middle ground – stronger pressure will create fissures in the relationship and collapse deterrence credibility
Darling, 11 - an international military markets analyst with Forecast International Inc., an aerospace and defense research company. A graduate of Kansas State University with a degree in history, he specializes in the European and Middle Eastern regions at Forecast (Daniel, 2/22, Faster Times,
It is no surprise, therefore, that tensions have spilled over … – and the U.S. is not going to alienate itself from those nations allied to its interests.
