aThe United States should initiate an institutional dialogue between the government of Bahrain and the opposition, where it endorses, as a starting point for reform, the agenda presented by the crown prince and accepted by Al-Wifaq, and the United States should provide support for human rights protections for the opposition.

Advantage 1 – the Fifth Fleet 

Dialogue has failed and the risk of sectarian conflict is high now – US influence is key to reinstituting a new dialogue
Washington Post, 9/9/11 [“Bahrain needs U.S. attention now”, ]
BAHRAIN HAS BECOME the hidden story of the Arab Spring…. now — before the crisis resumes.

And, Bahrain’s politics are deadlocked – its National Dialogue was a failure because the regime refused to make meaningful concessions
Ulrichsen, 9/6/11-  is a research fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science (Kristian, “Dark clouds over Bahrain,”

The killing of a 14-year-old boy by police on the island of Sitra on Aug. 31…. the battle-lines will be drawn for a new clash between diametrically opposed camps.

The lack of progress in the dialogue is driving the Bahrain Shia to seek Iranian aid because of perceived US hypocrisy in not supporting meaningful reform
Al-Ahmed & Jacobs 11 – Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs & Gulf Policy Analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs (Ali & Joshua, “The Crisis in Bahrain” Institute for Gulf Affairs, May 2011, , MCL)
Analysis and Recommendations for US Policy While it may be possible for the US to exit the crisis without… applying pressure and to start sketching the contours of a new policy. 

Expanding unrest threatens the Fifth Fleet – Shia hostility will force the US out
Noble, 7/21/11 - Intern with the Southwest Asia/Gulf program at the Stimson Center (Andrew, “Anchors Away: The Future Of The US Navy’s Fifth Fleet In Bahrain”,

The home base of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet has become a subject of discussion… Both Washington and Manama, as well as the neighbors of Bahrain, have an interest in preventing any of these scenarios from materializing.

The fifth fleet is key to check Iran’s influence
Winegard, 11 [3/11/11, “Understanding Bahrain: How Bahrain Shines a Light on Imperial Policies”, ]
Bahrain is an important strategic ally of the US: it promotes "stability" in the Gulf,… This is an eventuality that is not acceptable to US policy makers.

Global nuclear war
Ben-Meir, 2/6/2007 (Alon – professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs, Ending iranian defiance, United Press International, p. lexis)
That Iran stands today able to challenge or even defy the United States in every sphere of American influence in the Middle East attests to the dismal failure of the Bush administration's policy toward it during the last six years. Feeling emboldened and unrestrained, Tehran may,… but to warn Iran of the severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program.

And, Saudi Iran war – only a political settlement solves
Shaikh, 11 [3/23/11, Salman Director of the Brookings Institution's Doha Center and Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy Shaikh previously served as the Special Assistant for the Middle East and Asia to the United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs and as an adviser to former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers-Salman Shaikh, ]  
While US and international attention is focused largely elsewhere in the region, especially Libya, the violent crackdown against…. It is now time to put aside sectarian concerns and deep seated existential fears and get on with the job of achieving this for the future of Bahrain, the Gulf region, and the entire Middle East. 

Saudi Iran war escalates – Bahrain is key
Ghitis, 11 [March 17th, Frida, independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor. Her weekly column, World Citizen, appears every Thursday, World Citizen: Saudi Arabia and Iran Face Off in Bahrain, ]
If there is one thing we have learned from the events of the last few weeks,… proportions  and Black Swan consequences.

And, the propensity for Saudi Iran war is high now – causes regional escalation
Spindle, et al, 11 [April, Bill, The New Cold War, Vice Chancellor for Administrative Services for the University of Alaska Anchorage and Journalist WSJ, ]
But comparison to the short-lived flowering of protests 40 years ago in Czechoslovakia… when Iran helped to hatch Hezbollah among the Shiites while the Saudis backed Sunni militias. 

Goes nuclear
London, 10 [president of Hudson Institute and professor emeritus of New York University, Herbert,  “The Coming Crisis In The Middle East,” June 28, 2010, ]
The coming storm in the Middle East is gaining momentum; like conditions prior to World War I, all it takes… second holocaust could lead to a nuclear exchange. 

And, it escalates globally
Russell, 09 - Editor of Strategic Insights, Senior Lecturer Department of National Security Affairs (James, Spring, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” Security Studies Center Proliferation Papers,

Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined by various factors: (1) asymmetric interests in the bargaining… unprecedented disaster for the peoples of the region, with substantial risk for the entire world.

Loss of the Fifth Fleet causes external powers to fight over oil resources – this escalates Asian energy conflicts
Mead ‘7 (Walter, Senior Fellow @ CFR, Wall Street Journal, “Why We’re in the Gulf”, 12-27,
For the past few centuries, a global economic and political system has been slowly taking shape under first British…will necessarily make the security of the Persian Gulf states one of America's very highest international priorities.

This causes world war
Emmott, 8 - former editor of the Economist (Bill,  ‘Power rises in the east,’ The Australian, June 4, pg. l/n
As well as knitting them, however, this drama is also grinding together Asian powers that had previously kept a strict economic and political…. the East China Sea and the Senkaku-Diaoyutai islands, Taiwan and Pakistan.

The plan solves - clear U.S. support for a genuine dialogue that includes human rights creates space for political reform
Aziz and Musalem, 11 - *legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law, holds an M.A. in Middle Eastern studies from the University of Texas AND holds degrees in sociology as well as Middle Eastern language and cultures. Mr. Musalem grew up in Bahrain, where he has conducted social research, and has been a frequent visitor to the county over the past decade (Sahar and Abdullah, “Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement,”
Foreign Intervention by Saudi Arabia Instead of Iran
The Saudi monarchy watched in horror as one Arab dictator after another was deposed by a population demanding democracy. Fearing for its own rule,… it is in the United States’ national interest.

Even if the dialogue fails, the plan signals a change in posture that builds relations with future governments
Slackman, 11 (Michael, “Dim View of U.S. Posture Toward Bahraini Shiites Is Described,” New York Times, 2/21,

MANAMA, Bahrain — The United States military undermined efforts to improve relations with …. anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the news media.

That’s vital to protect the Fifth Fleet and prevent increased Iranian influence
Cooley and Nexon, 11 – Alexander, Associate Professor of Political Science at Barnard College and a member of Columbia University's Arnold A. Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies, AND Daniel, Associate Professor in the School of Foreign Service and the Department of Government at Georgetown University (Bahrain's Base Politics, Foreign Affairs, April 5, 2011, , MCL))

Second, Washington needs to avoid thinking about its basing arrangements in terms of a simple trade-off…. the next political crisis hits than be forced to scramble after it is under way.

Iraq advantage

The US is withdrawing from Iraq now but is negotiating a follow on force.  Al-Maliki wants 10,000 US troops but fragile Shia coalition support means he’ll only accept 3,000.  This risks the collapse of Iraq and a new civil war.
Kitfield, 9/8/11 - senior correspondent for National Journal (James, The Atlantic, “Why We're Leaving Troops in Iraq,”


Reports that the Pentagon may leave only a token U.S. force of 3,000 …...events could spin out of control and once again lead to civil war."

Shia refusal to support greater US military presence is because of perceived US tolerance of the repression of Bahrain’s Shia.  A US commitment to democratic reform in Bahrain is vital to preventing civil war in Iraq.
Habibi, 11 - Henry J. Leir professor of economics of the Middle East in Brandeis University's Crown Center for Middle East Studies (Nader, “U.S. Silence on Bahrain Crackdown Ignores Iraq Factor,” World Politics Review, 4/25,

Current U.S. policy toward Bahrain not only ignores the basic human rights of Bahrain's Shiites,… substantial democratic reform in Bahrain.

The plan is vital to boosting US relations with Iraqi Shia leaders
AP, 11 (“Crackdown in Bahrain enflames Iraq’s Shia community,” 4/2,

BAGHDAD: The sewing machines have been furiously churning out red and white Bahraini flags…. attention to it and directing their concern to Libya only.”

Complete withdrawal eviscerates US credibility entirely – it will make Iraq look like an utter failure and that the US is retreating in weakness
Ra, 11 - graduate student in International Affairs at Sciences Po Paris (Benjamin, “Iraq, Iraq, Iraq,” Washington Times, 4/10,

Three dangerous currents are coinciding today in the Middle East…. Then, we may say to the world and particularly to those who opposed us, that we came to do good and, in the end, we did good.

This will trigger preemptive attacks around the globe and risks multiple extinction scenarios
Gardner, 7 - Professor and Chair of the International Affairs Department of the American University of Paris (Hall, Averting Global War, p. 210-217)

The confrontation with Iran, for example, creates a scenario…. multilateral sanctions that could possibly involve the use of force.

Maintaining a small US presence after 2011 for training is vital to preventing the total collapse of Iraq – it’s also vital to building the Iraqi air force
Maginnis, 11- retired Army lieutenant colonel, and a national security and foreign affairs analyst for radio and television (Robert, Human Events, “U.S. Troops Must Stay in Iraq Beyond 2011,” 4/12

America must keep some forces in Iraq past the December 2011 deadline or face potentially serious consequences.
… complicated systems without American assistance.

Training for an Iraqi air force deters Israel air strikes on Iran
Ricks, 10 – senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, and covered the U.S. military for the Washington Post from 2000 through 2008 (Tom, “Will Tehran push Baghdad to re-open the SOFA with the crusaders in 2011? ,” 3/4,

Last night I was reading a very thorough analysis of Iraqi politics…. potential Israeli air strikes stays closed. 

That would cause World War 3
Ivashov, 7 - analyst at the Strategic Culture Foundation (Leonid, “Iran : the Threat of a Nuclear War”, 4/21,

What might cause the force major event of the required scale?.... much more nightmarish than WWII.

US support for the full inclusion of the Shia in the dialogue and for meaningful democratic reform will prevent Bahrain from escalating anger in Iraq
Terrill, 8/2/11 – Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute (Andrew, “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World,”

The conflict in Bahrain remains serious even after the March 2011… this situation may be reparable if strong attention is paid to the needs of Bahraini Shi'ites.

Email Maria Liu at Maria.C.Liu@gmail.com

AT: SKFTA
1- no pc
2- da popular
3- tradeoff budget not new spend
4- trades off with x
5- winners win
6- scandal
7- immigration
8- not pass
9- no pass currency
10- not sufficient solve alliance

AT: EU CP
1- judge kick voting issue
a- more than one world
b- judget intervention
2- condo bad
3- us key
4- eu softpower fails

AT: Economic Assistance CP
1- da key
2- perm do both
3- political reforms key
4- unrest makes downturn
5- Econ collapse inevit

AT: T DA = Resource
1- we meet send people to foster
2- DA = Dialogue
3- only bahrain possible b/c of bans
4-
5- err aff on reasonability
a- topic bad for aff
b- international CP
c- no abuse in the literature

AT: Israel DA
1- us cred solves
2- relations resilient
3- no impact change inevitable
4- us interference Egypt
5- plan brings closer
6- relations low

AT: Saudi Arabia DA
1- us increasing da now
2- fleet deters and contains
3- veto o/w and proves resilient
4- relations collapse now
5- oil impact irrelevant (Iraq)

c-Plan - The United States federal government should provide substantial advisory support to mediate a high level dialogue between the government of Bahrain and proponents of democratic constitutional reform.

CONTENTION ONE IS THE FIFTH FLEET

-Bahrain’s deadlocked – National Dialogue failed due to lacking US involvement and promotion of the Crown Prince.  Continued stalemate will erupt in widespread sectarian violence

Lippman, 9/22/11 - adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute and former Middle East bureau chief of the Washington Post (Thomas, “ The U.S. Dilemma in Bahrain,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/POMED-Policy-Brief_Lippman.pdf)

The few promising measures announced by… government swiftly reversed course.

-This will jeopardize the Fifth Fleet

Lippman, 9/22/11 - adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute and former Middle East bureau chief of the Washington Post (Thomas, “ The U.S. Dilemma in Bahrain,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/POMED-Policy-Brief_Lippman.pdf)

Of the Arab countries in which political… given the current turmoil.

-Fleet key to naval projection—deters Iranian aggression

Goodspeed 11—award winning reporter for the National Post (Peter, "Goodspeed Anaylsis: Unrest in Bahrain could threaten key US military outposts", 2/14, National Post,

There are concerns large-scale Shiite unrest… Arab world suddenly engulfs the emirate.

-That goes nuclear, credible deterrence is vital

Ben-Meir 7—Alon Ben-Meir, professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, 2/6/07, Realpolitik: Ending Iran's defiance,

Feeling emboldened and unrestrained… major U.S. punitive measures.

-Perception of credible deterrence in relation to Iran solidifies alliances and US power

Etzioni 11—Director of the Institute for Communitarian Policy Studies, George Wash U. Frmr sociology prof at Columbia. PhD in sociology from UC Berkeley, Amitai, The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility, March-April 2011, Military Review, )

As of the beginning of 2011, these Sunni nations… its commitments overseas.

-Heg good—multipolarity might be inevitable but maintaining strength enables a safer transition and checks global conflict

Barnett, 11 - chief analyst at Wikistrat, former visiting scholar at the University of Tennessee’s Howard Baker Center for Public Policy and a visiting strategist at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies (Thomas, World Politics Review, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” 3/7,

Events in Libya are a further reminder… battle deaths from state-based conflicts.

-Credibility of the fleet is necessary—triggers global conflict

Cropsey 10--Seth, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, former Naval Officer and deputy senior under secretary of the Navy in the administration of Reagan and BushII, "The US Navy in Distress", Strategic Analysis, Vol. 34 No. 1, January,

American maritime strategy has… recoup seapower surrendered slowly over decades.

-Fleet insecurity makes external powers compete for oil – escalates Asian energy conflicts
 Mead 7 (Walter, Senior Fellow @ CFR, Wall Street Journal, “Why We’re in the Gulf”, 12-27, http://docs.google.com/View?docid=ah6sxjndq9qq_387kw2kfkm9)

For the past few centuries… very highest international priorities.

-Nuke war

Emmott, 8 – former editor of the Economist (Bill, ‘Power rises in the east,’ The Australian, June 4, pg. l/n

As well as knitting them… islands, Taiwan and Pakistan.

-Plan solves – supporting genuine dialogue between the family and al-Wefaq creates space for reform and breaks from prior divide and conquer moves

Aziz and Musalem, 11 – *legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law, holds an M.A. in Middle Eastern studies from the University of Texas AND **holds degrees in sociology as well as Middle Eastern language and cultures. Mr. Musalem grew up in Bahrain, where he has conducted social research, and has been a frequent visitor to the county over the past decade (Sahar and Abdullah, “Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement,” http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf)

Notwithstanding this intervention… in the United States’ national interest.

-US influence can create a useful roadmap and they will say yes if the US leads the process

POMED, 11 – Project on Middle East Democracy. Panelists included Joe Stork, Deputy Director of Middle East and North Africa Division, Human Rights Watch; Hans Hogrefe, Chief Policy Officer and Washington Director, Physicians for Human Rights; Leslie Campbell, Senior Associate and Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa, National Democratic Institute; and Ambassador Martin Indyk, Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institution. (Event Summary of “Tensions in the Persian Gulf after the Arab Uprisings: Implications for U.S. Policy”, 6/29, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Tensions_in_the_Persian_Gulf_June_29_20111.pdf

Joe Stork spoke first, providing a historical… authorities on a regular basis.

-Plan is best middle ground – stronger moves will create fissures in the relationship and collapse deterrence cred

Darling, 11 - an international military markets analyst with Forecast International Inc., an aerospace and defense research company. A graduate of Kansas State University with a degree in history, he specializes in the European and Middle Eastern regions at Forecast (Daniel, “Don’t Expect a Split in the U.S.-Bahrain Relationship,” 2/22, The Faster Times,

http://www.thefastertimes.com/defensespending/2011/02/22/dont-expect-a-split-in-the-u-s-bahrain-relationship/

As in the case of Egypt, the situation places the… from those nations allied to its interests.

CONTENTION TWO IS SHIA

-US failure to mediate dialogue on political reform will cause Iranian intervention and radicalize Shia regionally

Al-Ahmed & Jacobs 11 – Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs & Gulf Policy Analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs (Ali & Joshua, “The Crisis in Bahrain” Institute for Gulf Affairs, May 2011, http://www.scribd.com/doc/59873023/Bahrain-Policy-Paper, MCL)

While it may be possible for the US to… in the wake of the crisis.

-This will expand regional Saudi-Iran proxy conflicts, triggering full scale war

Shaikh, 11 [3/23/11, Salman Director of the Brookings Institution's Doha Center and Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy Shaikh previously served as the Special Assistant for the Middle East and Asia to the United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs and as an adviser to former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, , ]  

While US and international attention… and the entire Middle East.

-It goes nuclear

London, 10 [president of Hudson Institute and professor emeritus of New York University, Herbert,  “The Coming Crisis In The Middle East,” June 28, 2010, ]

The coming storm in the Middle East is… could lead to a nuclear exchange.

-And, it escalates globally

Russell, 9 – Editor of Strategic Insights, Senior Lecturer Department of National Security Affairs (James, Spring, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” Security Studies Center Proliferation Papers, )

Strategic stability in… risk for the entire world.

-Expanding Iranian influence will destabilize Saudi Arabia – causes oil shocks and war

Maginnis 11—Robert, retired Army lieutenant colonel, national security and foreign affairs analyst, "Bahrain's No Egypt", 2/21, Human Events,

First, Iran would use a… world’s seaborne oil shipments pass. 

-Prices would reach $300 quickly, torching the economy

Babej 11 - Contributor to Forbes [Marc E. Babej, “A Saudi Oil Supply Disruption-The Ultimate Marketing Crisis Scenario,” Forbes, 3/29/2011 @ 01:48PM |pg.  http://www.forbes.com/sites/marcbabej/2011/03/29/a-saudi-oil-supply-disruption-the-ultimate-marketing-crisis-scenario/]  * Vance Scott - Partner at A.T. Kearney who leads the Energy and Chemicals Practice in the Americas.

And still: in 2011, the term “unlikely” doesn’t… products containing oil derivatives.

-This causes global energy wars and a spike in coal use

King 8 – Researcher @ Center for New American Security [Neil King, Jr. (Columnist for the Wall Street Journal), “Peak Oil: A Survey of Security Concerns,” CNAS Energy Security Visionaries Series, Center for New American Security, JULY 2008, http://www.aspousa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/_CNAS_King_Peak_Oil_WorkingPaper.pdf

Many commentators in the United States and abroad… wise steps and avoid the rash ones.

-The coal spike itself causes extinction

Hansen 9 - Director of Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies [James Hansen (Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences @  Columbia University and Ph.D. in Physics  from the University of Iowa),  “Coal-fired power stations are death factories. Close them,” The Observer, Sunday 15 February 2009,  pg. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/feb/15/james-hansen-power-plants-coal]

A year ago, I wrote to Gordon Brown… carbon dioxide rose another 100 ppm.

-The plan engages the Shia and checks Iranian influence

Cooley and Nexon, 11 – Associate Professor of Political Science at Barnard College and a member of Columbia University's Arnold A. Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies, AND Daniel, Associate Professor in the School of Foreign Service and the Department of Government at Georgetown University (Bahrain's Base Politics, Foreign Affairs, April 5, 2011, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics, MCL)

Second, Washington needs to avoid thinking… be forced to scramble after it is under way.

-US support for moderate reforms and Shia inclusion decrease Shia resentment regionally

Terrill, 8/2/11 – Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute (Andrew, “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World,” http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/The-Arab-Spring-and-the-Future-of-US-Interests/2011/8/2#bahrain)

The conflict in Bahrain remains… to the needs of Bahraini Shi'ites.

-Even if dialogue fails, the plan signals a change in posture that builds goodwill with future governments

Slackman, 11 (Michael, “Dim View of U.S. Posture Toward Bahraini Shiites Is Described,” New York Times, 2/21, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/22/world/middleeast/22bahrain.html?pagewanted=all)

The United States military undermined efforts… was not authorized to speak to the news media.

2ac

---2ac 5th fleet adv

-Even if they win their fifth fleet bad arguments – in the short term, it is better to stay and maintain a balanced naval capability

McDevitt, 2011 - Rear Admiral Michael, director, Strategic Studies, Center for Naval Analyses (Shrinking the Status-Quo Navy, Proceedings Magazine - February 2011 Vol. 137/2/1,296, http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2011-02/strategic-choices-tipping-point, MCL)

The same sort of speculation about the future… preserve as much balance as possible.

-The US can’t move the Fifth Fleet – Qatar and the UAE are completely unsuitable and the CP crushes US-Saudi relations

Dietz, 11 – writes for the Mideaster, a daily digest of news on the Middle East, also traveled to Bahrain to interview dissidents (David, The Mideaster, “Should the US Reconsider its Relationship with Bahrain?,” 4/21, http://themideaster.com/2011/04/21/should-the-us-reconsider-its-relationship-with-bahrain/)

With the approximately 70 percent Shia population … as relocating the fleet would be to Saudi.

-Other states won’t accept the move – they’ll concede to Iranian influence

Silverleib, 11 (Alan, “Bahrain: What's at stake for America,” 2/17, http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/02/17/us.bahrain.stakes/index.html?hpt=T2)

As far as Washington is concerned, this small Persian Gulf kingdom… The stakes could not be higher.

-Iranian naval activity is increasing

Singh, 11 - research fellow at the National Maritime Foundation, New Delhi. He tracks political events and strategic developments in West and South Asia (Abhijit, “Iran Seizes Opportune Moment to Project Naval Power,” World Politics Review, 6/14,

http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9153/iran-seizes-opportune-moment-to-project-naval-power

In an extraordinary development, Iran deployed submarines… and potentially lead to conflict.

-Forward basing key to deterrence
 Gerson and Whiteneck 9 (Michael Gerson and Daniel Whiteneck, CNA Strategic Studies, “Deterrence and Influence: The Navy's Role in Preventing War,” March 2009)
 In general deterrence, the intended deterrent effect… allies and deter adversaries.

-Overseas basing key to US power – laundry list of impacts
 Kramer and Nelson 5 (Franklin D. Kramer, Chairman of the Atlantic Council, C. Richard Nelson, Atlantic Council, “Global Futures and Implications for U.S. Basing,” 6/1/5)
 U.S. overseas bases serve as both…. power in a variety of ways.

---2ac At kopolvsky

-The fleet checks Iran aggression

Winegard, 11 [3/11/11, “Understanding Bahrain: How Bahrain Shines a Light on Imperial Policies”, ]

Bahrain is an important strategic ally… acceptable to US policy makers.

-East Asian naval wars outweigh and free trade doesn’t fucking solve strategic trust

Hyun Jin Choi 2009;  research associate at the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA) in Cambridge, Massachusetts, where he conducted research on the ROK-U.S. alliance, crisis management, and civil-military relations, Ph.D. candidate in the department of political science at Michigan State University; “Fueling Crisis or Cooperation? The Geopolitics of Energy Security in Northeast Asia” Asian Affairs: An American Review Volume 36, Issue 1, 2009, Wilson Online

As Northeast Asia's dependence on… the Northeast Asian maritime security.

-Yes Draw in

Ynet News, 9/5/11 [“IDF general: Likelihood of regional war growing”, ]

Recent revolutions in the Arab world… two roofs, rather than only one," he said.

-Any Middle East conflict goes global

Khouri 11 ( Rami G. Khouri is editor-at-large of The Daily Star, and director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut. Jan 5. “Arabia's Troubling Script,” )

It is evident from places like Palestine… association with foreign actors.

---2ac t

-CI – DA includes institutionalizing dialogue between the regime and civil society

Huber, 8 - Hebrew University of Jerusalem Department of International Relations (Daniela, Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 13, No. 1, 43–62, March 2008, “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies”, ebsco) 

What is Democracy Assistance?... through the strengthening of networks.

-USAID says provision of advice for constitutional democratization is T

Alford, 2k - Prof of Law @ Harvard (William P. Alford 2k 113 Harv. L. Rev. 1677 “BOOK REVIEW: EXPORTING "THE PURSUIT OF HAPPINESS" Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve. By Thomas Carothers,” lexis

C. Your Society Can Be Civil, Too: The Elements of Democracy Promotion… economic success, and social stability.

-Prefer it –

-it’s the only topical Bahrain aff – traditional democracy assistance is impossible when dealing with authoritarian governments, institutionalizing a dialogue is the only mechanism

-More predictable – Huber is the only definition in the MENA context and the region defines democracy assistance as dialogue

TESEV, 5 – Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (“DEMOCRACY ASSISTANCE DIALOGUE”,

http://www.maec.gov.ma/dad/docs/Rabat%20Paper%20edited.pdf

The subsequent Democracy Assistance Dialogue… and civil society experts.

---2ac a2 threaten cp

-Pressure fails – it’s perceived as the beginning of a break in the US-Bahrain relationship, more moderate forms of persuasion like assistance for a dialogue are key to getting Bahrain on board.  The

perceptionthat the US is willing to break the alliance destroys deterrence credibility and triggers adventurism – that’s Darling and Terril

-The counterplan rocks the boat too hard – risks escalation of the conflict

McManus, 11 – Washington Columnist for the LA Times (Doyle, “Rattling the palace windows in the Persian Gulf,” LA Times, 2/20,

So the aim of U.S. policy in… history is calling our bluff.

-The threat fails – they’ll call the US bluff

Traub, 11 - contributing writer for the New York Times Magazine and author of, most recently, The Freedom Agenda. "Terms of Engagement," his column for ForeignPolicy.com, runs weekly (James, “Friend Request,” 5/27, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/05/27/friend_request

And maybe they were in no position… he meant what he said.

-The GCC will fill in

Knigge 2011 – Michael, headed up the German editorial team of DW-WORLD.DE since 2004. Previously, he worked as a reporter for the English service of Deutsche Welle Radio, as well as for various news agencies (Washington has vested interest but little leverage in Bahrain, deutsche well, , March 25, 2011, MCL)

"But that's a hard sell," says Herd… the GCC," says Herd.

-Doesn’t solve our Shia internal link – outreach that includes cultivating direct ties with the opposition is vital to building relations – that’s Cooley and Slackman

-Links to politics

Turse 11 – Nick, historian, essayist, investigative journalist, the associate editor of TomDispatch.com, and currently a fellow at Harvard University’s Radcliffe Institute (How the Tiny Kingdom of Bahrain Strong-Armed the President of the United States, Foreign Policy in Focus, a project for the Institute for Policy Studies, 3/16, http://www.fpif.org/articles/the_arab_lobby, MCL)

In the midst of the violence… Bahraini naval forces."

-Active US involvement in the process is vital to set the agenda and make sure the regime doesn’t divert from it – that’s POMED

-They’ll just engage in sham reforms to deflect criticism

Washington Post Sept 9, 2011 – Bahrain needs US Attention Now, Washington post, , MCL

BAHRAIN HAS BECOME the hidden story… in office since 1971.

---2ac a2 credit/spending da

-No impact to credit downgrade – its Moody and S&P playing hard ball and T-bonds investments will stay at the same level

Petruno July 16, 2011 – Tom, markets columnist for The Times (U.S. AAA credit rating in jeopardy as risks get reality check, LA Times, Business Market Beat, , MCL)

Moody's and S&P warned this week… like much of a competition.

-Solve the disad – oil shocks collapse the economy and collapsing hegemony

-No link – democracy assistance spending is small – a substantial increase is a few million

Murphy, 9 – Freedom House (Damian, “Making its Mark: An Analysis of the Obama Administration FY2010 Budget Request for Democracy and Human Rights,” )

The Administration has requested… response to the war in Gaza.

-No link – comes from regional response fund

McInerney, 11 - is Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy (Stephen, "The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012 DEMOCRACY, GOVERNANCE, AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST”, July, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf)

The administration has wisely… in Syria, Libya, Yemen, or elsewhere.

-Aid now - Egypt

Al-Amin, 9/17/11 (Esam, “Three Big Challenges Threatening the Arab Uprisings,” )

In its bill to fund US foreign assistance… internal affairs of sovereign nations.

-Libya

Carothers, 9/15/11 – vp at Carnegie Endowment, main topic expert (Thomas, “Building a New Libya”, )

How much will the United States… nothing like what we’ve seen in Iraq and Afghanistan.

---2ac a2 skfta da

-The GOP is unwilling to give Obama a political victory as the 2012 elections gear up

The Daily Star, 9-16-11, p. http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/International/2011/Sep-16/148857-happy-talk-does-not-mean-compromise-in-us-congress.ashx#axzz1YtmQY4qv

WASHINGTON: Republicans in Congress may… and political guns,” Siegal said.

-the link is non u - Currency bill

Raju 9-27

(Manu,- congressional reporter at POLITICO “China currency vote puts pressure on White House”)

When Senate Majority Leader Harry… works its way through the Senate.

-Obama pushing democracy assistance now

Sheridan 9-25

(Mary Beth,- diplomatic correspondent for The Washington Post “Obama faces hurdles in aiding Arab Spring countries”)

The lawmakers' reluctance contrasts sharply… groundwork for a broader effort.

-Budget fights --- recent deal will continue to drain capital

AP 9-27

(“Congress dodges one crisis, now on to the next”)

One crisis averted, on to the next… communications department at Virginia Tech.

-Obama’s already urged reform within the regime – plan is just more of the same
 WSJ 11 (March 5, 2011, “U.S. wavers on ‘Regime Change,’”

Arab diplomats believe the… too important to fail."

-Democracy assistance has strong bipartisan support

Mitchell and Phillips, 8 – *professor in the Practice of International Politics at Columbia University’s School of International and Political Affairs AND ** project director of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy and currently a visiting scholar at Columbia University’s Center for the Study of Human Rights (Lincoln and David, “Enhancing Democracy Assistance”, http://www.acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/65/Enhancing%20Democracy%20Assistance.pdf)

Democracy assistance has typically… candidates in the 2008 election.

-No link – a. total budget is capped – tradeoffs will occur

McInerney, 11 - is Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy (Stephen, "The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012 DEMOCRACY, GOVERNANCE, AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST”, July, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf)

It is impossible to evaluate… conditions and emerging opportunities.

-b. it will come from the regional response fund

McInerney, 11 - is Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy (Stephen, "The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012 DEMOCRACY, GOVERNANCE, AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST”, July, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf)

The administration has wisely budgeted… Yemen, or elsewhere.

-Passing even controversial policies boosts capital – empirical

Singer, 9 – Juris Doctorate candidate at Berkeley Law (Jonathon, “By Expending Capital, Obama Grows His Capital,” 3/3/2009, http://www.mydd.com/story/2009/3/3/191825/0428)

Despite the country's struggling economy… energy reform to ending the war in Iraq.

-FTA not key to alliance

Cooper et al 11/12/10 (William, Mark Manyin, Remy Jurenas, Michaela Platzer, Specialists in Trade + Asian Affairs @ Congressional Research Affairs, "The Proposed U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA): Provisions and Implications," )

The United States and South Korea negotiated… the Peninsula or in Northeast Asia. 

-No US-China War – Economics

Thomas Barnett, 2004, a former Professor and senior military analyst at the U.S. Naval War College, and a top advisor to SecDef Donald Rumsfeld, 2004, ("The Pentagon's New Map: War and Peace In The Twenty-First Century," )

(the following excerpt shows why war in the Taiwan… civilizations to clash with, does it?

2ac deterrence

The burden of proof is on them – we have decades of evidence that deterrence works and you shouldn’t tolerate any risk of deterrence failure because of its devastating impact

Payne, 09 – professor in the Graduate Department of Defense and Strategic Studies at Missouri State University and president of the National Institute for Public Policy (Spring, Dr. Keith B., Strategic Studies Quarterly, “On Nuclear Deterrence and Assurance,” http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/2009/Spring/payne.pdf , JMP)

There should be no …

that risk may not be low.

Deterrence doesn’t make securitization inevitable – it can break cycles of hostility and generate cooperation

Lupovici 8 – Post-Doctoral Fellow Munk Centre for International Studies University of Toronto (Amir, “Why the Cold War Practices of Deterrence are Still Prevalent: Physical Security, Ontological Security and Strategic Discourse,”  http://www.cpsa-acsp.ca/papers-2008/Lupovici.pdf 

Since deterrence can become …

expectations of avoiding violence.

Deterrence solves the impact – there are infinite possible non-falsifiable root causes – looking to the proximate cause of what starts war is more important – that’s Moore, based on an empirical study of hundreds of years of war

Deterrence is a way to break from the security dilemma – it allows us to alter our perception of arms buildups and see them as non-threatening

Lupovici 8 – Post-Doctoral Fellow Munk Centre for International Studies University of Toronto (Amir, “Why the Cold War Practices of Deterrence are Still Prevalent: Physical Security, Ontological Security and Strategic Discourse,”  http://www.cpsa-acsp.ca/papers-2008/Lupovici.pdf 

I further claim that …

uncertainties (post–Cold War terrorism). 

2ac iran threat

It’s a double-bind: Either the alternative links or doesn’t solve.  In isolation, alternatives can’t individually deconstruct dominant security discourse. They must engage with security, but in doing so legitimize the practices being critiqued.

Jeff Huysmans, Lecturer in politics at the department of government at Open University, Alternatives “Defining Social Constructivism in Security Studies: The Normative Dilemma of Writing Security”  Feb 2002 p. 50-51

Although the critical edge …the dominant construction?

Saudi Arabia has already constructed Iran as a threat – it makes war likely

Jones, 11 - assistant professor of history at Rutgers University. He was previously Persian Gulf analyst for the International Crisis Group (Toby, Democracy Now!, 5/6, “Oil Wealth, U.S. Backing Enables Saudi Arabia to Crush Dissent in Bahrain and at Home,” http://www.democracynow.org/2011/5/6/oil_wealth_us_backing_enables_saudi)

TOBY JONES: Right. Well…. provoking a potential regional crisis.

Iran isn’t constructed – it has a strong history and desire to dominate Bahrain

Sotloff, 11 - Steven Sotloff is a Yemen-based writer and an adjunct fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (“The Importance of Bahrain,” 1/28,

http://www.defenddemocracy.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=11791961&Itemid=347

One country in particular …‘Iran is also trying to build networks in Bahrain.’

2ac imperialism k

The aff can transform the idea of democracy assistance through the permutation

MANDAVILLE AND MANDAVILLE 2k7 (ALICIA PHILLIPS associate Director of Development Policy at the Millennium Challenge Corporation, PETER P prof international/public affairs @ George mason, “Introduction: Rethinking democratization and democracy assistance” Development, 2007, 50(1), (5–13)

We have outlined some of the ….participatory forms of democratic politics.

Extinction precedes value questions – existence is a prerequisite for the self

Wapner 3 [Paul Wapner is associate professor and director of the Global Environmental Policy Program at American University, DISSENT / Winter 2003]JFS

All attempts to listen to nature are, …., of environmental preservation.

People should set their own value to life

Lisa Schwartz, Chair at the Centre for Health Economics and Policy Analysis, 2002

“Medical Ethic: A Case Based Approach” Chapter 6, www.fleshandbones.com/readingroom/pdf/399.pdf

The second assertion ….and as ends in themselves.

The impact is extinction, the refusal to engage in traditional politics is an abdication of social responsibility that makes all social crises inevitable

Boggs, 97 (Carl, National University, Los Angeles, Theory and Society, “The great retreat: Decline of the public sphere in late
 twentieth-century America”, December, Volume 26, Number 6, http://www.springerlink.com.proxy.library.emory.edu/content/m7254768m63h16r0/fulltext.pdf)

The decline of the public sphere ….from civil society. 75

Bahrain opposition wants US support

Bahrain Youth Society for Human Rights, 10 (“Open Letter to Hillary Clinton on Eve of Political Dialogue in Bahrain,” 11/30,

http://byshr.org/pipermail/newsletter_byshr.org/2010-November/000016.html

When the United States participates ….Torture, to which they are a signatory.

The anti-imperialism argument is a rationale used to justify authoritarianism

Zunes, 11 - professor of politics at the University of San Francisco (Stephen, “America Blows It on Bahrain”, Foreign Policy in Focus, 3/2, proquest)

In the aftermath of ….have taken up arms.

Democracy assistance isn’t coupled with economics

Youngs 2011 (Richard, Prof @ Warwick U/director of FRIDE “Misunderstanding the maladies of liberal democracy promotion”

Third, central to critical …..by incumbent autocratic regimes.

Their qritiq is the worst form of paralysis –

Weiss ’11 Seth, Marxist-Humanist Institute, “Libya and the Left” *This piece was originally published in , Issue #174, May 14 2011. http://www.marxisthumanistinitiative.org/forces-of-revolution/libya-and-the-left.html

Those on the Left advancing ….have spelled the end of the Arab Spring.

Discursive analysis leads to political paralysis and fails to change the world.

Jarvis ‘00 (Darryl Jarvis is an Associate Professor of International Relations at the University of British Columbia, International relations and the challenge of postmodernism, p. 190

The simple and myopic ….for "thinking space."

There are no prior questions and their framework arguments paralyze politics.

Owen 2 (David Owen, Reader of Political Theory at the Univ. of Southampton,  Millennium Vol 31 No 3 2002 p. 655-7)

Commenting on the ‘philosophical …..a potentially vicious circle arises.

global poverty is decreasing rapidly

Chandy and Gertz, 11 - *fellow at the Global Economy and Development Program in the Brookings Institution AND ** research analyst in the same program (Laurence and Geoffrey, “With Little Fanfare, Hundreds Of Millions Escaped Poverty,” Jakarta Globe, 7/8,

http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/opinion/with-little-fanfare-hundreds-of-millions-escaped-poverty/451432

We are in the midst ….such a remarkable moment.

2ac schmitt

The aff prevents knee jerk interventionism – link turns the k

Lund, 11 [Michael S. Lund, “Human Rights: A Source of Conflict, State Making, and State Breaking”, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/Lund%20-%20Human%20Rights.pdf]

This more balanced, contextualized ….a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Liberalism is good – solves extinction

Barnett, 11 [Thomas P.M. Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads]

Events in Libya are a ….should make you nervous.

Schmitt lacks an empirical basis --- the alt results in warfare

Brown 07 – Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science (Chris, “The International Political Thought of Carl Schmitt: Terror, Liberal War, and the Crisis of Global Order” 2007, Fellow in International Relations at the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London, and also teaches Inter- national Relations at the University ‘L’Orientale’ in Naples, Italy p. 67)

Schmitt’s normative position ….the resort to force might be justified.

Positivism should be the means by which we evaluate impacts and truth claims—only this can maintain relevance of IR—truth claims that cannot be supported by evidence are vaccuous

Houghton 08 [Associate Professor of International Relations Theory at the University of Central Florida

(David Patrick, Positivism ‘vs’ Postmodernism: Does Epistemology Make a Difference? International Politics (2008) 45 ) ]

As long ago as 1981, …..international relations scene today.

AND you generalize Liberalism – Perm do both solves – our form of liberalism is good

Brown 07 (Chris Brown Professor of International Relations and Convenor of the International Relations Department at the London School of Economics. Writing in The international political thought of Carl Schmitt: Terror Liberal War and the Crisis of Global Order pg 56-57)

The term ‘humanitarian …of this kind of use of force?

Hegemony is transformative – perm do both — allows us to affect the world order beneficially

Thompson, ’03 – Founder and Editor of Logos and Teaches Political  Theory @ Hunter College (Michael J.,, CUNY, Fall 2003 (“Iraq, Hegemony, and the Question of American Empire” – Logos, Vol. 2, Issue 4)

It is rare that political debates ….

be thought of without enthusiasm."

We control epistemology – prefer empirical 1ac ev and their authors are ideological

Lieber, ‘05 – PhD from Harvard, Professor of Government and International Affairs at Georgetown, former consultant to the State Department and for National Intelligence Estimates (Robert, “The American Era”, page vii)

In recent years a …of primacy and preemption.

2ac t – material

1. CI – DA includes institutionalizing dialogue between the regime and civil society
   Huber, 8 - Hebrew University of Jerusalem Department of International Relations (Daniela, Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 13, No. 1, 43–62, March 2008, “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies”, ebsco)  

What is Democracy Assistance?
The term democracy assistance …through the strengthening of networks.

USAID says provision of advice for constitutional democratization is T
Alford, 2k - Prof of Law @ Harvard (William P. Alford 2k 113 Harv. L. Rev. 1677 “BOOK REVIEW: EXPORTING "THE PURSUIT OF HAPPINESS" Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve. By Thomas Carothers,” lexis

C. Your Society Can Be Civil, …
success, and social stability.

Prefer it – 

it’s the only topical Bahrain aff – traditional democracy assistance is impossible when dealing with authoritarian governments, institutionalizing a dialogue is the only mechanism

More predictable – Huber is the only definition in the MENA context and the region defines democracy assistance as dialogue
TESEV, 5 – Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (“DEMOCRACY ASSISTANCE DIALOGUE”,
http://www.maec.gov.ma/dad/docs/Rabat%20Paper%20edited.pdf

The subsequent Democracy …and civil society experts.

Err affirmative on reasonability –

-  they overlimit - the topic mechanism is horrible for the aff and there are almost no credible solvency advocates

-  we don’t unlimit – negative generics like international CPs and conditioning destroy almost all small affirmatives, and the literature base isn’t deep enough to support small mechanisms

- No abuse – we have a predictable solvency advocate, have a large change explicitly linked to democracy and link to all of their disads.  

2ac bahrain

Current repression makes revolution more likely
Ibish, 11 – senior research fellow at the American Task Force on Palestine ( Hussein, “Foreign Policy: In Bahrain, A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy,” National Public
Radio, Apr. 15, 2011, http://www.npr.org/2011/04/19/135434047/foreign-policy-in-bahrain-a-self-fulfilling-prophecy

On April 4, the Saudi cabinet issued … dwindling by the day.

Most recent intelligence proves that Iranian influence is expanding rapidly in Bahrain – including giving weapons
Gulf Daily News, 9/29/11 (“Links to Iran exposed”
http://www.gulfinthemedia.com/index.php?m=politics&id=575275&lim=&lang=en&tblpost=2011_09)

A global intelligence group …increasingly powerful Iran," it says.

Empirically – Saudi opposition is posturing, they won’t block
Gulf Roundtable, 11 – primarily quoting Kristin Smith Diwan, an assistant professor of comparative and regional studies at the American University’s School of International Service, and Frederic Wehrey, a senior policy analyst at RAND Corporation (“Eyes on Bahrain,” 3/8, http://csis.org/files/publication/110225_Summary_Wehrey_Diwan.pdf)

Saudi involvement is ….of the Bahraini opposition.

Al Wefaq and Bahrain will accept the plan – also proves your links are nonunique
Toumi, 9/22/11 (Habib, “Foreign minister welcomes Obama' remarks on Bahrain,” Gulf News, http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:lBxqugxmFpsJ:gulfnews.com/news/gulf/bahrain/foreign-minister-welcomes-obama-remarks-on-bahrain-1.871550+%22Foreign+minister+welcomes+Obama'+remarks+on+Bahrain%22&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us)

Manama: Bahrain's foreign minister …yield the anticipated results.

Credible US engagement prevents opposition groups from accepting Iranian backing – solves INTERNAL conflicts
POMED, 7/18/11  - Project on Middle East Democracy, “POMED Notes: Maryam al-Khawaja – An Update on Bahrain,” http://peacelogs.com/pomed-notes-maryam-al-khawaja-%E2%80%93-an-update-on-bahrain/)
Al-Khawaja = Director of External Relations for the Bahrain Center on Human Rights

Al-Khawaja is also concerned …compromising American national interests.  

2ac israel strike

Israel will strike – internal reports
Haaretz, 9/11/11 [“Cheney: Israel would strike Iran to prevent it from achieving nuclear weapons”, http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/cheney-israel-would-strike-iran-to-prevent-it-from-achieving-nuclear-weapons-1.383972]
Former U.S. Vice President …by Israel in September 2007. 

2ac threaten(dietz)

The counterplan rocks the boat too hard – risks escalation of the conflict
McManus, 11 – Washington Columnist for the LA Times (Doyle, “Rattling the palace windows in the Persian Gulf,” LA Times, 2/20,
http://articles.latimes.com/2011/feb/20/opinion/la-oe-mcmanus-column-bahrain-20110220

So the aim of U.S. policy in …
history is calling our bluff.

Permute – do both

The threat fails – they’ll call the US bluff
Traub, 11 - contributing writer for the New York Times Magazine and author of, most recently, The Freedom Agenda. "Terms of Engagement," his column for ForeignPolicy.com, runs weekly (James, “Friend Request,” 5/27, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/05/27/friend_request

And maybe they were in ….
whether he meant what he said.

The GCC will fill in
Knigge 2011 – Michael, headed up the German editorial team of DW-WORLD.DE since 2004. Previously, he worked as a reporter for the English service of Deutsche Welle Radio, as well as for various news agencies (Washington has vested interest but little leverage in Bahrain, deutsche well, http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0_{14941531,00.html, March 25, 2011, MCL)} 

• • Graeme Herd, who heads the International Security Program at the Geneva Center for Security Policy
     "But that's a hard sell," …coming from the GCC," says Herd. 

Doesn’t solve our Shia internal link – outreach that includes cultivating direct ties with the opposition is vital to building relations – that’s Cooley and Slackman

Links to politics
Turse 11 – Nick, historian, essayist, investigative journalist, the associate editor of TomDispatch.com, and currently a fellow at Harvard University’s Radcliffe Institute (How the Tiny Kingdom of Bahrain Strong-Armed the President of the United States, Foreign Policy in Focus, a project for the Institute for Policy Studies, 3/16, http://www.fpif.org/articles/the_arab_lobby, MCL)

In the midst of the violence, …and Bahraini naval forces."

Active US involvement in the process is vital to set the agenda and make sure the regime doesn’t divert from it – that’s POMED

2ac skfta
Nothing will pass Congress in the next year because the GOP doesn’t want to give Obama a political victory
Miami Herald, 9-30-11, p. http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/09/30/2432914/as-obama-presses-passage-of-his.html
The plan, though, has …University of California San Diego. 

The links non-unique - 

Currency drains capital 

Sergent 9-29
(Greg,-  writer for the Washington Post and editor of Election Central, Talking Points Memo's politics and elections Web site “The other big jobs fight”)
The battle over the American ….an eye on this one. 

Your top of the docket evidence is a lie 

Wallace’s Farmer 9-29
(Quoting Chris Garza, an American Farm Bureau trade adviser “Struggle over FTAs Continues”)
"Next week would be the …will be sent up."

Obama’s already urged reform within the regime – plan is just more of the same
WSJ 11 (March 5, 2011, “U.S. wavers on ‘Regime Change,’”http:online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703580004576180522653787198.html)
Arab diplomats believe the …just too important to fail." 

Aid now - Egypt
Al-Amin, 9/17/11 (Esam, “Three Big Challenges Threatening the Arab Uprisings,” http://www.counterpunch.org/2011/09/16/three-big-challenges-threatening-the-arab-uprisings/)
In its bill to fund US foreign …affairs of sovereign nations.

Budget fights - recent deal will continue to drain capital

AP 9-27
(“Congress dodges one crisis, now on to the next”)
WASHINGTON — One crisis averted, on …department at Virginia Tech. 

Won’t pass - gridlock

Liberto 9-29
(Jennifer,- Senior Writer at CNN Money in D.C. “Trade deals held up by Washington gridlock”)
President Obama wants trade deals …
has appeared yet. 

Obama’s trade agenda is kaput- won’t pass Congress
Washington Times, 9-28-11, p. http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/sep/28/democrats-killing-obamas-jobs-agenda/?page=1
The White House trade …set forth in the first place.

Democracy assistance has strong bipartisan support
Mitchell and Phillips, 8 – *professor in the Practice of International Politics at Columbia University’s School of International and Political Affairs AND  project director of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy and currently a visiting scholar at Columbia University’s Center for the Study of Human Rights (Lincoln and David, “Enhancing Democracy Assistance”, http://www.acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/65/Enhancing%20Democracy%20Assistance.pdf)

Democracy assistance has typically …candidates in the 2008 election.

No link – 

total budget is capped – tradeoffs will occur
McInerney, 11 - is Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy (Stephen, "The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012 DEMOCRACY, GOVERNANCE, AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST”, July, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf)

It is impossible to evaluate …and emerging opportunities.

Passing even controversial policies boosts capital – empirical
Singer, 9 – Juris Doctorate candidate at Berkeley Law (Jonathon, “By Expending Capital, Obama Grows His Capital,” 3/3/2009, http://www.mydd.com/story/2009/3/3/191825/0428)

Despite the country's struggling …reform to ending the war in Iraq.

Not key to trade – impact inev
WSJ, 11 [January, Jobs, Wars, Deficits, Sports—and the Campaign, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704851204576034050639894010.html]
Currency policy remains a …U.S.-South Korea free-trade pact.

Cleantech now – china and the US

No impact to warming – its cyclical
Beisner 10 — former associate professor of interdisciplinary studies in economics, government, and public policy, Covenant. PhD, University of St. Andrews (Calvin, Forget Global Warming Mini Ice Age May Be on Its Way, 12 January 2010, http://www.rightsidenews.com/201001128144/energy-and-environment/forget-global-warming-mini-ice-age-may-be-on-its-way.html, AMiles) Note – graph omitted 

The UK's MailOnline did just that …other alarmists rely.

FTA not key to alliance
Cooper et al 11/12/10 (William, Mark Manyin, Remy Jurenas, Michaela Platzer, Specialists in Trade + Asian Affairs @ Congressional Research Affairs, "The Proposed U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA): Provisions and Implications," http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL34330.pdf)

The United States and South Korea …Peninsula or in Northeast Asia. 

2ac saudi
No Saudi prolif – no intention and a statements by Riyadh are a ploy to attain a US security guarantee
Jacobs 2011 – Joshua, Gulf Policy Analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs (Saudi's Bluff on the Bomb, Institute for Gulf Affairs, http://www.gulfinstitute.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=176:saudis-bluff-on-the-bomb&catid=16:news&Itemid=1, July 19, 2011, MCL)
Saudi Arabia set off alarm bells in Western capitals earlier this week when transcripts of a speech Prince Turki al-Faisal gave to senior NATO military officials were released. Prince Turki stated that an …years of development. 

Plan deters and contains Iran by maintaining the Fifth Fleet and training the Iraqi army – the aff changes impact uniqueness because it makes any war impossible
Solving stability solve the disad
Haykel 11 – Professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University (8/16, Bernard, Democracy Digest, “Saudis ‘leading counter-revolution’ against Arab Spring”, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/08/saudis-leading-counter-revolution-against-arab-spring/, WEA)
Saudi Arabia is widely perceived …corrupt, and brutal governments.

Any decrease in relations will be made up by an expansion of relations in other areas – deep rooted interests prevent alliance collapse
Barzegar 2011 – Kayhan, Director of the Institute for Middle East Strategic Studies and a faculty member at the Science and Research Branch of the Islamic Azad University in Tehran (Iran-Saudi Relations: Time for Active Diplomacy, Campaign against Sanctions and Military intervention in Iran, http://www.campaigniran.org/casmii/index.php?q=node/11539, July 13, 2011, MCL)
Mosallas: It is generally believed …will ever try to challenge the US interests in the region.

Alt cause – veto of the PLO bid – outweighs the link to the plan and proves the alliance is resilient – and an added bonus it takes out their Iran link
Lobe, 9/14/11 [“Agreeing on Less and Less”, Jim, IPS News Service, http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=105103]
WASHINGTON, Sep 14, 2011 (IPS) - Accumulating strains between ….threat" to the Saudis.

Even if there is a decrease in relation, the alliance is resilient.
Teitelbaum 11 — JD from Harvard and PhD from Cornell, visiting assistant professor at Cornell, senior lecturer in Middle Eastern History, and a research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, at Bar-Ilan University (7/17, Joshua, Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, Perspectives Papers on Current Affairs, “Empty Words: Saudi Blustering and US-Saudi Realities”, http://www.biu.ac.il/SOC/besa/perspectives.html, WEA)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Saudis are truly …by some Saudi officials.

Saudi-US relations low on both sides
Al-Ahmed & Jacobs 11 – Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs & Gulf Policy Analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs (Ali & Joshua, “The Crisis in Bahrain” Institute for Gulf Affairs, May 2011, http://www.scribd.com/doc/59873023/Bahrain-Policy-Paper, MCL)
Despite this tepid reconciliation… and interests of the United States 

1ac bahrain

CONTENTION ONE IS BAHRAIN

Bahrain’s deadlocked – National Dialogue failed due to one-sided US support of the Crown Prince.  Continued stalemate will erupt in widespread sectarian violence

Lippman, 9/22/11 - adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute and former Middle East bureau chief of the Washington Post (Thomas, “ The U.S. Dilemma in Bahrain,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/POMED-Policy-Brief_Lippman.pdf)

The few promising measures …

swiftly reversed course.

The US just called for a new dialogue but needs to back it up with direct support or it will collapse in violence

Kerr, 9/30/11 (Simeon, “Life refuses to return to normal in Bahrain,” Financial Times,

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/51354940-eb59-11e0-9a41-00144feab49a.html#axzz1ZRcw1zs0)

The government has promised …

to give his surname.

Further radicalization entails full scale civil war

Shaikh, 11 - Director of the Brookings Institution's Doha Center and Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy (Salman, “The Bahrain crisis and its regional dangers,” 3/23, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/23/the_bahrain_crisis_and_its_regional_dangers)

While US and international attention …

a full blown civil war.

It’s beginning to escalate now

Kerr, 9/23/11 (Simon, Financial Times, “Clashes erupt in Bahrain ahead of by-elections,”

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/47e1bf48-e601-11e0-b196-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1ZRcw1zs0

Clashes erupted across …

mark a dangerous escalation.

This will jeopardize the Fifth Fleet even without civil war

Lippman, 9/22/11 - adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute and former Middle East bureau chief of the Washington Post (Thomas, “ The U.S. Dilemma in Bahrain,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/POMED-Policy-Brief_Lippman.pdf)

Of the Arab countries in which …

given the current turmoil.

Fleet key to naval projection—deters Iranian aggression

Goodspeed 11—award winning reporter for the National Post (Peter, "Goodspeed Anaylsis: Unrest in Bahrain could threaten key US military outposts", 2/14, National Post,

There are concerns large-…

 world suddenly engulfs the emirate.

That goes nuclear, credible deterrence is vital

Ben-Meir 7—Alon Ben-Meir, professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, 2/6/07, Realpolitik: Ending Iran's defiance,

Feeling emboldened and …

major U.S. punitive measures.

Perception of credible deterrence in relation to Iran solidifies alliances and US power

Etzioni 11—Director of the Institute for Communitarian Policy Studies, George Wash U. Frmr sociology prof at Columbia. PhD in sociology from UC Berkeley, Amitai, The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility, March-April 2011, Military Review, )

As of the beginning of 2011, these Sunni …to its commitments overseas.

Heg good

Barnett, 11 - chief analyst at Wikistrat, former visiting scholar at the University of Tennessee’s Howard Baker Center for Public Policy and a visiting strategist at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies (Thomas, World Politics Review, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” 3/7,

Events in Libya are a further …deaths from state-based conflicts.

Credibility of the fleet is necessary—accesses global conflict

Cropsey 10--Seth, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, former Naval Officer and deputy senior under secretary of the Navy in the administration of Reagan and BushII, "The US Navy in Distress", Strategic Analysis, Vol. 34 No. 1, January,

American maritime strategy has …

seapower surrendered slowly over decades.

US failure to mediate dialogue on reform will expand Iranian influence and radicalize Shia regionally

Al-Ahmed & Jacobs 11 – Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs & Gulf Policy Analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs (Ali & Joshua, “The Crisis in Bahrain” Institute for Gulf Affairs, May 2011, http://www.scribd.com/doc/59873023/Bahrain-Policy-Paper, MCL)

Analysis and Recommendations for …

the wake of the crisis.

Expanding Iranian intrusion will destabilize Saudi Arabia – causes oil shocks and war

Maginnis 11—Robert, retired Army lieutenant colonel, national security and foreign affairs analyst, "Bahrain's No Egypt", 2/21, Human Events,

First, Iran would use a …seaborne oil shipments pass. 

Prices would hit $300 immediately

Babej 11 - Contributor to Forbes [Marc E. Babej, “A Saudi Oil Supply Disruption-The Ultimate Marketing Crisis Scenario,” Forbes, 3/29/2011 @ 01:48PM |pg.  http://www.forbes.com/sites/marcbabej/2011/03/29/a-saudi-oil-supply-disruption-the-ultimate-marketing-crisis-scenario/]  * Vance Scott - Partner at A.T. Kearney who leads the Energy and Chemicals Practice in the Americas.

And still: in 2011, the …

containing oil derivatives.

Oil shocks risk extinction

Roberts 04 (Paul, Regular Contributor to Harpers and NYT Magazine, “The End of Oil: On The Edge of a Perilous New World”, p. 93-94)

The obsessive focus on …terrorism or even war.

Plan solves – supporting genuine dialogue between the family and al-Wefaq creates space for reform and breaks from prior divide and conquer moves

Aziz and Musalem, 11 – *legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law, holds an M.A. in Middle Eastern studies from the University of Texas AND **holds degrees in sociology as well as Middle Eastern language and cultures. Mr. Musalem grew up in Bahrain, where he has conducted social research, and has been a frequent visitor to the county over the past decade (Sahar and Abdullah, “Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement,” http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf)

Notwithstanding this intervention, Washington …

the United States’ national interest.

US influence can create a useful roadmap—they will say yes if the US leads the process

POMED, 11 – Project on Middle East Democracy. Panelists included Joe Stork, Deputy Director of Middle East and North Africa Division, Human Rights Watch; Hans Hogrefe, Chief Policy Officer and Washington Director, Physicians for Human Rights; Leslie Campbell, Senior Associate and Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa, National Democratic Institute; and Ambassador Martin Indyk, Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institution. (Event Summary of “Tensions in the Persian Gulf after the Arab Uprisings: Implications for U.S. Policy”, 6/29, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Tensions_in_the_Persian_Gulf_June_29_20111.pdf

Joe Stork spoke first, providing a …

authorities on a regular basis.

Plan is best middle ground – stronger moves will create fissures in the relationship and collapse deterrence cred

Darling, 11 - an international military markets analyst with Forecast International Inc., an aerospace and defense research company. A graduate of Kansas State University with a degree in history, he specializes in the European and Middle Eastern regions at Forecast (Daniel, “Don’t Expect a Split in the U.S.-Bahrain Relationship,” 2/22, The Faster Times,

http://www.thefastertimes.com/defensespending/2011/02/22/dont-expect-a-split-in-the-u-s-bahrain-relationship/

As in the case of Egypt, the situation …

from those nations allied to its interests.

plan

The United States federal government should provide substantial support to mediate a high level dialogue between the government of Bahrain and proponents of democratic constitutional reform.

1ac iraq

CONTENTION TWO IS IRAQ

The US is withdrawing from Iraq now but negotiating a follow on force.  Al-Maliki wants 10,000 troops but fragile Shia support means he’ll only accept 3,000 which risks collapse and new civil war

Kitfield, 9/8/11 - senior correspondent for National Journal (James, The Atlantic, “Why We're Leaving Troops in Iraq,”

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/09/why-were-leaving-troops-in-iraq/244739/)

Reports that the Pentagon may …

and once again lead to civil war."

Shia refusal to support greater US military presence is due to perceived US tolerance in repression of Bahrain’s Shia.  Commitment to democratic reform prevents civil war in Iraq

Habibi, 11 - Henry J. Leir professor of economics of the Middle East in Brandeis University's Crown Center for Middle East Studies (Nader, “U.S. Silence on Bahrain Crackdown Ignores Iraq Factor,” World Politics Review, 4/25, )

Current U.S. policy toward Bahrain …

substantial democratic reform in Bahrain.

The plan is key to boost relations with Iraqi Shia leaders

AP, 11 (“Crackdown in Bahrain enflames Iraq’s Shia community,” 4/2, http://www.dawn.com/2011/04/02/crackdown-in-bahrain-enflames-iraqs-shia-community.html)

The fervour is testimony to …

directing their concern to Libya only.”

Presence past 2011 for training is key to preventing Iraq’s collapse and assists the indigenous air force

Maginnis, 11- retired Army lieutenant colonel, and a national security and foreign affairs analyst for radio and television (Robert, Human Events, “U.S. Troops Must Stay in Iraq Beyond 2011,” 4/12 http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=42865)

America must keep some …

systems without American assistance.

The impact is Israel strikes

Ricks, 10 – senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, and covered the U.S. military for the Washington Post from 2000 through 2008 (Tom, “Will Tehran push Baghdad to re-open the SOFA with the crusaders in 2011? ,” 3/4, http://ricks.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/03/04/will_tehran_push_baghdad_to_re_open_the_sofa_with_the_crusaders_in_2011)

Regardless of who …

air strikes stays closed.

World War 3

Ivashov, 7 – analyst at the Strategic Culture Foundation (Leonid, “Iran : the Threat of a Nuclear War”, 4/21,

http://www.megachip.info/modules.php?name=Sections&op=viewarticle&artid=3871)

What might cause the …more nightmarish than WWII.

US support for Shia inclusion and meaningful reform prevents Bahrain from escalating discontent in Iraq

Terrill, 8/2/11 – Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute (Andrew, “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World,” http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/The-Arab-Spring-and-the-Future-of-US-Interests/2011/8/2#bahrain)

The conflict in Bahrain remains …

 to the needs of Bahraini Shi'ites.

Aff: Michigan AL

Round #7   Tournament: Wake

vs: Liberty GW

Judge: Cam Norris

Plan Text

Bahrain constitutional reform

1ac Advantages

Shi’a Radicalization 

5^th Fleet

2ac Offense

Link turn politics

1ar Strategy

2ar Strategy

Aff: Michigan AL

Round 6   Tournament:

vs: Baylor CM

Judge: Nick Watts

Plan Text: USFG should advice Bahrain with support of king and opposition (wiki)

1ac Advantages: positivism good card + RR aff

2ac Offense: positivism good, predictions good, heg good, baudrillard bad

1ar Strategy: imagine plan happens = good

2ar Strategy: positivism / predictions good, baudrillard bad, heg

Aff:Michigan AL

Round #  3 Tournament: Shirley

vs:Kansas CG

Judge:Carly Wunderlich

Plan Text

USFG should provide substantial expertise to mediate a high level dialogue between the government of Bahrain and proponents of democratic constitutional reforms.

1ac Advantages

Shia-regional instability

Saudi-Iran war

Prolif

Saudi oil shocks

Econ not solve

Iran influential

2ac Offense

Iran miscalc

Seabasing kills heg

1ar Strategy

Answered T

EU

Politics

2ar Strategy

Answered T

SC rd 1 12ac case

Even if Moore isn’t 100% accurate – his theory serves as an effective predictive tool and framework for analyzing conflict and peace

Sharp 2008 -  Walter, serves as a senior associate deputy general counsel for intelligence at the US Department of Defense, where he advises on legal issues related to intelligence, covert action, intelligence and counterintelligence policy, intelligence oversight, information security, information sharing, security classification policy, information operations, and computer network operations. Prior to his appointment, Dr. Sharp served as an associate deputy general counsel for international affairs at the Department of Defense; the director of legal research for international, comparative, and foreign law at the Law Library of Congress; the director of global and functional affairs within the Bureau of Legislative Affairs at the State Department; (Democracy and Deterrence Foundations for an Enduring World Peace,  Air University Press Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama, May 2008, MCL)

Moore’s incentive theory of war avoidance …effectively coordinate US democracy-assistance programs.

Securitization is emancipating—giving marginalizes issues like human rights visibility

Jeff Huysmans, Lecturer in politics at the department of government at Open University, Alternatives “Defining Social Constructivism in Security Studies: The Normative Dilemma of Writing Security”  Feb 2002 p. 59-60

There is no solution for …oppression as a good that should be secured.

2ac sovereign k

The aff prevents knee jerk interventionism – link turns the k

Lund, 11 [Michael S. Lund, “Human Rights: A Source of Conflict, State Making, and State Breaking”, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars ]

This more balanced, contextualized approach …approach can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Schmitt lacks an empirical basis --- the alt results in warfare

Brown 07 – Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science (Chris, “The International Political Thought of Carl Schmitt: Terror, Liberal War, and the Crisis of Global Order” 2007, Fellow in International Relations at the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London, and also teaches Inter- national Relations at the University ‘L’Orientale’ in Naples, Italy p. 67)

Schmitt’s normative position is impossible to … which the resort to force might be justified.

AND you generalize Liberalism – Perm do both solves – our form of liberalism is good

Brown 07 (Chris Brown Professor of International Relations and Convenor of the International Relations Department at the London School of Economics. Writing inThe international political thought of Carl Schmitt: Terror Liberal War and the Crisis of Global Order pg 56-57)

The term ‘humanitarian intervention’ is a …judging the morality of this kind of use of force?

And, Democratic peace is true – da to the alt

Reiter & Stam 9 – Chair of the Department of Political Science at Emory University & Professor of Political Science at the University of Michigan (Dan & Alexander, "Another Skirmish in the Battle over Democracies and War" International Security, Volume 34, Number 2, Fall 2009, pp. 194-204, Project MUSE)

In previous articles and in our 2002 …interstate wars, and tied or lost none.9

The alt doesn’t solve – states have rejected a return to true enmity

Kim Lane Scheppele, John J. O'Brien Professor of Comparative Law and Professor of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania, May 2004, University of Pennsylvania Journal of Constitutional Law, 6 U. Pa. J. Const. L. 1001, p.1082-1083

In this Article, I have tried to explain why …the new sovereign is bound by rules.

the alt leads to total war

Moreiras, 04 – Director of European Studies at Duke, (Alberto, 2004, “A God without Sovereignty. Political Jouissance. The Passive Decision”, CR: The New Centennial Review 4.3, p. 82-83, Project MUSE)

But the scandal gets worse, and this is …line. Total war is an absolute threat.

Ontology alone is not enough to vote neg—we have made particular claims about the world and our abstract worldview is less important than whether those specific EPISTEMOLOGICAL claims are accurate. Defining ontological entities is ultimately less important than how we know what we know and the probability that our statements about the world are pragmatically correct.

Patrick Thaddeus Jackson, 2010. Associate Professor of International Relations in the School of International Service at the American University in Washington, DC. “The Conduct of Inquiry in International Relations: Philosophy of Science and its Implications for the Study of World Politics,” p 27-8.

However, I do not think that putting …necessarily, assert the persistence of the state.

2ac polyarchy

Yes value to life. Save the most lives

Bernstein 2 (Richard J., Vera List Prof. Phil. – New School for Social Research, “Radical Evil: A Philosophical Interrogation”, p. 188-192)

There is a basic value inherent in …wholeness of Man among the objects of your will." (IR 11)

Bahrain opposition wants US support

Bahrain Youth Society for Human Rights, 10 (“Open Letter to Hillary Clinton on Eve of Political Dialogue in Bahrain,” 11/30,

When the United States participates in the …Against Torture, to which they are a signatory.

The anti-imperialism argument is a rationale used to justify authoritarianism

Zunes, 11 - professor of politics at the University of San Francisco (Stephen, “America Blows It on Bahrain”, Foreign Policy in Focus, 3/2, proquest)

In the aftermath of the nonviolent ….movement in that country, unlike in Bahrain, have taken up arms.

Their qritiq is the worst form of paralysis – when confronted with a tough decision it presents no realistic option for dissenters in imminent danger of brutal repression – instead resorting to knee-jerk anti-imperialism and invocation of larger ethical theories that ultimately end up justifying or enabling the authoritarian regime

Weiss ’11 Seth, Marxist-Humanist Institute, “Libya and the Left” *This piece was originally published in , Issue #174, May 14 2011.

Those on the Left advancing …well have spelled the end of the Arab Spring.

2ac baudrilliard

Debating our arguments is an antidote to information saturation—the skills imparted by this game are good

Coverstone, 95 – masters in communication from Wake Forest and longtime debate coach (Alan, “An Inward Glance; A Response to Mitchell’s Outward Activist Turn,” )

Mitchell's argument underestimates the …

skills. Teaching these skills is our virtue.

3. Baudrillard is the worst example of ivory tower academia—instead of dealing with real problems, he retreats into his safe western university and cloaks genocide in philosophical terms.  Technology makes war MORE real, not less—the correct course is ACTION to abate the CONSEQUENCES OF WAR.  Star this card, because it lights their kritik on fire. 

BALSAS, 2006 [BALSAS is an interdisciplinary journal on media culture.  Interview with Art Group BBM, “on first cyborgs, aliens and other sides of new technologies,” translated from lithiuanian ]

Valentinas: We all know that Jean Baudrillard …energy on the diplomatic battlefield.

7. Their attempt to break free of hyperreality using the same terms is impossible—we need pragmatic action and carefully researched argumentation instead of our opponents’ self-referential drivel

King, 1998 [Anthony, Professor at Essex University, Telos Journal, “Baudrillard’s Nihilism and the End of Theory”, ]

Compare this style of writing with J. G. Ballard’s …hyperbolic reification of mere assertions.

9. Reality exists—what they describe as “simulation” depends on concrete cultural factors for its creation and interpretation—interpretation of phenomenon is still possible and desirable.

King, 1998 [Anthony, Professor at Essex University, Telos Journal, “Baudrillard’s Nihilism and the End of Theory”, ]

The Fictitiousness of Hyperreality In …they see to make sense of their own lives.

Even if predictions in the abstract are wrong, policy debates that predict hypothetical outcomes and weigh evidence of the risk of those outcomes is productive

Tetlock & Gardner 11 Philip Tetlock is a professor of organizational behavior at the Haas Business School at the University of California-Berkeley, AND Dan Gardner is a columnist and senior writer for the Ottawa Citizen and the author of The Science of Fear, received numerous awards for his writing, including the Michener Award, M.A. History from York, "OVERCOMING OUR AVERSION TO ACKNOWLEDGING OUR IGNORANCE" July 11

The optimists are right that …

your competitors on policy bets panning out.

Political modeling obviates critiques of expertism

de Mesquita  11 Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is Silver Professor of Politics at New York University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution B.A. from Queens, M.A. from Michigan, PhD from Michigan, "FOX-HEDGING OR KNOWING: ONE BIG WAY TO KNOW MANY THINGS" July 18

Good prediction—and this is my belief—…technology, ideas, and subject adaptation will be ongoing.

//


////


//

1ac plan

The United States Federal Government should provide substantial support to mediate a high level dialogue between the government of Bahrain and proponents of democratic constitutional reform.

1ac fleet

CONTENTION ONE IS THE FLEET

The BICI report changed the game – now is key – the alternative is the violent implosion of the country

Gershman, 12/1/11 [Carl, President of the National Endowment for Democracy, “The Price of Freedom and Democracy: Defiant Bahrainis and the Arab Spring”, http://www.ned.org/about/board/meet-our-president/archived-presentations-and-articles/the-price-of-freedom-and-democracy]

I want to begin by congratulating Nabeel Rajab for receiving this important award,

much greater violence than we’ve seen so far.

The violence is worse than ever and it will target the US

Cunningham, 1/2/12 [Finian, Global Research’s Middle East and East Africa correspondent, “Bahrain: Crushing Pro-Democracy Protests. American and British Police Chiefs Step Up State Repression”, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=28452]

“The violence is worse than ever,” […]  A new sight at protests across Bahrain recently is the burning of American flags.

And, mass violence causes fleet kick out

Lippman, 11 [9/22,11, adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute and former Middle East bureau chief of the Washington Post (Thomas, “ The U.S. Dilemma in Bahrain,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/POMED-Policy-Brief_Lippman.pdf]

From a security perspective, […] given the current turmoil.

Collapses deterrence -- and undermines sustainable Gulf military presence 

Noble, 11 [7/21, Stimson Center, “Anchors Away: The future of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain”, http://www.stimson.org/spotlight/the-us-fifth-fleet-in-bahrain/]

The home base of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet has become a […] Both Washington and Manama, as well as the neighbors of Bahrain, have an interest in preventing any of these scenarios from materializing.

The impact is hegemony

CBS, 12/12/11 [“Arab Spring's uprisings reshape U.S. influence”, http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57341224/arab-springs-uprisings-reshape-u.s-influence/]

The case is often […] but not in others."

And, failure to walk a fine line between assisting democracy and security interests collapses basing agreements

Cooley, 11 [Alexander Cooley, Foreign Affairs, Tow Professor of Political Science at Barnard College in New York, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show]

Washington's balancing […]the next political crisis hits than be forced to scramble after it is under way.

Forward presence is key to deterrence – ending that presence would crush leadership and allied cooperation

Forbes 12-2 - Rep. J. Randy Forbes, R-Va., is chairman of the House Armed Services Readiness Subcommittee and founder and co-chairman of the Congressional China Caucus. (Puncturing the U.S. Base Myths, The Diplomat, December 02, 2011, http://the-diplomat.com/2011/12/02/puncturing-the-u-s-base-myths/?all=true, MCL)

Deterring regional aggression with forward basing […]if we asked to return to these facilities during a future crisis.

Heg decline causes extinction

Barnett, 11 - chief analyst at Wikistrat, former visiting scholar at the University of Tennessee’s Howard Baker Center for Public Policy and a visiting strategist at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies (Thomas, World Politics Review, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” 3/7, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads

Events in Libya are a further reminder for Americans that we […] and persistent reduction in battle deaths from state-based conflicts.

Primacy reduces conflict

Owen 11 John M. Owen Professor of Politics at University of Virginia PhD from Harvard "DON’T DISCOUNT HEGEMONY" Feb 11 www.cato-unbound.org/2011/02/11/john-owen/dont-discount-hegemony/

Andrew Mack and his colleagues at the […] the emergence of the United States as the global hegemon.

Focus on deterrence and democracy is key to averting crisis escalation – reject infinite root causes that debilitate action

Moore 4 – Professor of Law at the University of Virginia. He formerly served as the first Chairman of the Board of the United States Institute of Peace and as the Counselor on International Law to the Department of State. (John Norton, Winter, “Beyond the Democratic Peace: Solving the War Puzzle”, 44 Va. J. Int'l L. 341, Lexis Law)

If major interstate war is predominantly a product of a synergy between a […]

deepest nightmare scenario of socio-economic crisis and political unrest.

And, oil would be 300 dollars a barrel – causes the economy to grind to a halt

Babej 11 - Contributor to Forbes [Marc E. Babej, “A Saudi Oil Supply Disruption-The Ultimate Marketing Crisis Scenario,” Forbes, 3/29/2011 @ 01:48PM |pg.  http://www.forbes.com/sites/marcbabej/2011/03/29/a-saudi-oil-supply-disruption-the-ultimate-marketing-crisis-scenario/] 

This morning, I had a very revealing conversation with Vance Scott, a Partner at A.T. Kearney who leads the Energy and […] for products containing oil derivatives.

Economic disruptions cause war

Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215

Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline […]dyadic and national levels.' This implied connection between integration, crises and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention.

The correlation between oil prices and economic decline is strong that it should be viewed as causation

Hamilton, 11 [James D. Hamilton Department of Economics University of California, San Diego, “Historical Oil Shocks”, http://dss.ucsd.edu/~jhamilto/oil_history.pdf]

As noted in the previous sections, these historical episodes were often followed by economic recessions in the United States. The last column of Table 1 reports the starting date of U.S. recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. All but one of the 11 postwar […] of data to add to Table 1 with which to inform our understanding of the economic consequences of oil shocks.

US support de-escalates Shiite resentment regionally

Terrill, 11 [Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute (Andrew, “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World,” http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/The-Arab-Spring-and-the-Future-of-US-Interests/2011/8/2#bahrain)]

The conflict in Bahrain remains serious even after the […] this situation may be reparable if strong attention is paid to the needs of Bahraini Shi'ites.

1ac solvency

CONTENTION THREE IS SOLVENCY

Plan solves – supporting genuine dialogue creates space for reform

Aziz and Musalem, 11 – *legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law, holds an M.A. in Middle Eastern studies from the University of Texas AND **holds degrees in sociology as well as Middle Eastern language and cultures. Mr. Musalem grew up in Bahrain, where he has conducted social research, and has been a frequent visitor to the county over the past decade (Sahar and Abdullah, “Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement,” http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf)

Notwithstanding this intervention, Washington still wields e[…]Therefore supporting reform in Bahrain and democracy in the Middle East is no longer a lofty ideal; it is in the United States’ national interest.

And, opposition groups have called for dialogu” – evidence referencing the “national dialogue” doesn’t apply – actors are now ready to come to the table

AFP, 12/19/11 [“Bahrain opposition urges talks”, Agente France Press, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gzDdkobtrfgmiVO69MsqNU9nHAJg?docId=CNG.65f564f60f03ebab6c4103aa632a6e7a.361]

MANAMA — Bahrain opposition groups have urged […]Ibrahim Sharif remains in prison since the crackdown on protests and has been convicted along with other leading opponents of plotting to overthrow the regime.

And, only the US can break the current political deadlock – roundtable negotiations are vital

Gershman, 12/1/11 [Carl, President of the National Endowment for Democracy, “The Price of Freedom and Democracy: Defiant Bahrainis and the Arab Spring”, http://www.ned.org/about/board/meet-our-president/archived-presentations-and-articles/the-price-of-freedom-and-democracy]

In fact, if there is not an accommodation in Bahrain, if the current standoff continues, […]opportunity and realize its full potential.

And, the US is the only actor with the influence to prevent Saudi meddling –action shows support and brings all actors to the table

Abrams, 11/25/11 [Elliot, former senior director for the Near East and deputy national security adviser handling Middle East affairs in the George W. Bush administration. He is now a senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, where he writes the blog Pressure Points, “Abrams: Last Chance of Bahrain”, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/25/abrams-last-chance-for-bahrain/]

The report this week by the international commission on Bahrain represents the […] or a lost opportunity to save Bahrain from turmoil.  Let’s hope King Hamad realizes the future of his dynasty depends on the decisions he makes in the coming months.

Too much pressure creates fissures in the relationship and collapses deterrence – plan is key middle path

Darling, 11 - an international military markets analyst with Forecast International Inc., an aerospace and defense research company. A graduate of Kansas State University with a degree in history, he specializes in the European and Middle Eastern regions at Forecast (Daniel, “Don’t Expect a Split in the U.S.-Bahrain Relationship,” 2/22, The Faster Times,

http://www.thefastertimes.com/defensespending/2011/02/22/dont-expect-a-split-in-the-u-s-bahrain-relationship/

It is no surprise, therefore, that tensions have spilled over – much like they promised to do last fall when weeks of Shiite rioting resulted in the arrests of scores of Shiite political opposition leaders in advance of the October parliamentary election.

As in the case of Egypt, the situation places the United […]– and the U.S. is not going to alienate itself from those nations allied to its interests.

pinker

Every credible measure shows violence is down for reasons consistent with the aff—it’s only a question of sustaining these dynamics and preventing shocks to the system

Pinker 9-24-2011 (Steven, Professor of Psychology at Harvard University, “Violence Vanquished: We believe our world is riddled with terror and war, but we may be living in the most peaceable era in human existence. Why brutality is declining and empathy is on the rise,” 9-24-2011, http://online.ws j.com/article/SB10001424053111904106704576583203589408180.html?mod=googlenews_wsj)

On the day this article appears, you will read about a shocking act of violence. […]—and an impetus to cherish the forces of civilization and enlightenment that made it possible.

2ac t

USAID says provision of advice for constitutional democratization is T

Alford, 2k - Prof of Law @ Harvard (William P. Alford 2k 113 Harv. L. Rev. 1677 “BOOK REVIEW: EXPORTING "THE PURSUIT OF HAPPINESS" Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve. By Thomas Carothers,” lexis

C. Your Society Can Be Civil, Too: […]attainment of democracy, economic success, and social stability.

We meet – dialogue is an instrument of democracy assistance

Burnell, 2k - Peter Burnell, Professor of politics and international studies at Warwick University, 2000, Democracy Assistance: International Cooperation for Democratization, p. 148

How difficult that is for them is shown by their failure so far to take advantage […] the conflict impact of their work.

Most democracy assistance is expertise, not money

Carothers, 2k - vice-president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Thomas, American Democracy Promotion, eds: Cox, Ikenberry and Inoguchi, p. 191)

The term 'aid' conjures up the idea of money […] better legal protections for independent media.

Prefer it –

--it’s the only topical Bahrain aff – traditional democracy assistance is impossible when dealing with authoritarian governments, institutionalizing a dialogue is the only mechanism

--More predictable – Huber is the only definition in the MENA context and the region defines democracy assistance as dialogue

TESEV, 5 – Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (“DEMOCRACY ASSISTANCE DIALOGUE”,

http://www.maec.gov.ma/dad/docs/Rabat%20Paper%20edited.pdf

The subsequent Democracy Assistance Dialogue (DAD) […]political leaders, media representatives and civil society experts.

Err affirmative on reasonability –

-        they overlimit - the topic mechanism is horrible for the aff and there are almost no credible solvency advocates

-        we don’t unlimit – negative generics like international CPs and conditioning destroy almost all small affirmatives, and the literature base isn’t deep enough to support small mechanisms

-       No abuse – we have a predictable solvency advocate, have a large change explicitly linked to democracy and link to all of their disads. 

2ac basing k

Bases are key to prevent the escalation of large-scale conflicts that are bad news bears for EVERYONE – they are also vital to US credibility and crisis management – they HAVE to win heg bad to win their K

BINNENDIJK ‘95 HANS Editor-in-Chief “The Case for Forward Deployment” Joint Electronic Library, Summer

http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/jel/jfq_pubs/case8.pdf

This is a debate that, given the history of this century, […], America would be severely constrained.

Key distinction – the threat of preemption effectively deters conflict BUT there won’t be cycles of future intervention – the US can’t afford it

Huffington Post ’11 “John McCain: We Won't Go To War In The Middle East Again” 9/11

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/11/john-mccain-we-wont-go-to_n_957303.html

WASHINGTON -- Sen. Jon McCain defended the […]continued for years beyond their planned end-dates.

Anti-basing advocacy simply results in base relocation according to US strategic considerations – assign the alternative zero percent solvency

Yeo ‘7 Andrew Yeo is a Ph.D. candidate in government at Cornell University. His research focuses on the social movements, alliances, and political components of U.S. military bases overseas. “Why Isn't the Closure of a U.S. Military Base Cause for Celebration? The Asia-Pacific Context” http://forusa.org/book/export/html/8350

Following the Pentagon’s 2004 Global Posture Review (GPR), […] strategic interests, not community concerns.

2ac basing k – at: inev

Defense spending is sustainable

Wolf 4/13/2011 – PhD from Harvard, senior research fellow at the Hoover Institution, member of the advisory board of the Center for International Business and Economic Research at UCLA's Anderson Graduate School of Business (Charles, WSJ, “The Facts About American 'Decline'”, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704415104576251292725228886.html, WEA)

It's fashionable among academics and pundits to proclaim […]three crude indicators—GDP, military spending and population growth—show that the U.S. inclined in absolute terms.

Decades disprove that there is anti-basing – even if there is a movement, it is small and would never be supported in Washington – lack of transition to sea basing proves

Parker 10 –Federal Executive Fellow at the Brookings Institution. (Gregory J., “The future of seabasing” Armed Forces Journal, http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2010/12/4997685)

As this heady optimism ground to a […] canceling it in early 2010. By all appearances, seabasing appeared to be on the ropes.

2ac basing – at: unrest

Unrest is not just a symptom of the base – our Cooley evidence indicates the Shia likes the base because they are able to get economic benefits like jobs.

Aziz and NPR indicate that the Shia want to come to the table – the reason why there is escalating unrest is because the Shia believe the US is greenlighting Shia intervention and helping the government – the plan resolves that by creating a different power sharing agreement.

The vast majority of Shia want the base

Habibi, 11 - Henry J. Leir professor of economics of the Middle East in Brandeis University's Crown Center for Middle East Studies (Nader, “U.S. Silence on Bahrain Crackdown Ignores Iraq Factor,” World Politics Review, 4/25, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8621/u-s-silence-on-bahrain-crackdown-ignores-iraq-factor)

Empowering Bahrain's […] it is unlikely that, once empowered, they would immediately call for the removal of U.S. military bases from Bahrain.

Political reform is more important than economics

POMED, 11 – Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED Notes: Conference on Political Situation in Bahrain, 7/7, http://pomed.org/blog/2011/07/pomed-notes-conference-on-political-situation-in-bahrain.html/)

Justin Gengler presented his research, “[…]that are based on ideas of exclusion and societal disenfranchisement,” Gengler said.

2ac oil

No risk of endless interventions -- oil isn’t a necessary precursor to violence – oil markets are independent of US actions and rational calculations prevent escalation

Hossein-zadeh, 08 [Ismael, author of the recently published The Political Economy of U.S. Militarism (Palgrave-Macmillan 2007), teaches economics at Drake University, Des Moines, Iowa, “Are They Really Oil Wars?”, http://www.politicaleconomics.info/papers/AreTheyReallyOilWars.pdf]

The widely-shared view that the U.S. desire for access […]providing in Iraq and the Gulf region," adds Mohamedi.[20]

2ac realism

Human aggression and hierarchical mindsets cannot be erased

Thayer 2004 – Thayer has been a Fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University and has taught at Dartmouth College and the University of Minnesota [Darwin and International Relations: On the Evolutionary Origins of War and Ethnic Conflict, University of Kentucky Press, 2004, pg. 75-76]

The central issue here is what causes states […] meeting their own and their family's or tribes need for food, shelter, or other resources).

Realism prevents war and is on balance the best foreign policy to pursue

Kaplan, 11 - senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security (Robert, “Libya, Obama and the triumph of realism,” 8/28, Financial Times, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a76d2ab4-cf2d-11e0-b6d4-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1XTZKCwKU)

Realism supposedly died at the end of the cold war, […]prove to be the only credible belief system for those who, like Mr Obama, seek to wield power.

2ac k top level

Critique needs to prove that the plan is a bad idea – otherwise the alt is utopian and a voting issue – makes it impossible to be aff and destroys predictability and fairness.

Perm Do both

Case is an extinction disad – absent the plan, me war, economic collapse, iran aggression and energy conflicts are inevitable – only the plan’s symbol and deterrence solves.

Only evaluate unique impacts – an impact without a trigger element cannot be falsified or evaluated because it is impossible to research and disprove.

All lives infinitely valuable—only ethical option is maximizing number saved

Cummisky, 96  (David, professor of philosophy at Bates, Kantian Consequentialism, p. 131)

Finally, even if one grants that saving two persons […] the more persons with dignity who are saved, the better.

2ac imperialism

Blanket rejection of imperialism re-inscribes orientalist binaries and justifies the worst atrocities—US democratic engagement vital to recasting the relationship and responding to suffering 

Kiely 98 – Ray, Lecturer in development Studies at the University of East London (Third Worldist Relativism: A New Form Of Imperialism, Journal of Contemporary Asia, Vol. 25 No. 2 (1995))

Nevertheless, the point remains that conflict exists […]the metropolitan countries in return for military protection (Stork and Lesch 1990; Bromley 1991; Brenner 1991: 134).

2ac plan solves intervention

The aff prevents knee jerk interventionism – link turns the k

Lund, 11 [Michael S. Lund, “Human Rights: A Source of Conflict, State Making, and State Breaking”, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/Lund%20-%20Human%20Rights.pdf]

This more balanced, contextualized approach is needed to foster […]this solely combative approach can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

2ac dialogue no link

Dialogue does not link to your K – not based on imposition and remedies political discussions by decreasing otherization

Hoover 2011 – Judith, Professor Emerita in the Department of Communication at Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, United States (Dialogue: Our Past, Our Present, Our Future, Journal of Intercultural Communication Research Volume 40, Issue 3, 2011 Special Issue: World Communication Conference 2011, Available Online October 21, 2011, Taylor Francis Online, MCL)

 Genuine dialogue between two people, according to Buber (1965[…] “envisions groups, organizations, and a world for all, not just ‘my’ kind” (Arnett, 1986, p. 174).

2ac boggs

The impact is extinction, the refusal to engage in traditional politics is an abdication of social responsibility that makes all social crises inevitable

Boggs, 97 (Carl, National University, Los Angeles, Theory and Society, “The great retreat: Decline of the public sphere in late
 twentieth-century America”, December, Volume 26, Number 6, http://www.springerlink.com.proxy.library.emory.edu/content/m7254768m63h16r0/fulltext.pdf)

The decline of the public sphere in late twentieth-century America poses a series of great dilemmas and challenges[…], the state would likely become what Hobbes anticipated: the embodiment of those universal, collective interests that had vanished from civil society. 75

2ac owen

No prior questions

David Owen, Reader of Political Theory at the Univ. of Southampton,  Millennium Vol 31 No 3 2002 p. 655-7

Commenting on the ‘philosophical turn’ in IR, Wæver remarks that […] and so a potentially vicious circle arises.

2ac we solve

Tangible US support for a dialogue can get all parties on board, broker a compromise for democratic reform, prevent radicalization of the Shia and deny expanding Iranian influence

Doran and Shaikh, 11 (published in November) – Michael S. Doran is the Roger Hertog Senior Fellow with the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, where he specializes in Middle East security Issues, Salman Shaikh is Director of the Brookings Doha Center and a Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings The Arab Awakening: America and the Transformation of the Middle East, ed: Pollack, p. 188-195)

As a result, the government of Bahrain faces a very […] of Bahrain and perhaps the entire Gulf region may very well depend on it.

1ac plan

The United States Federal Government should provide substantial support to mediate a high level dialogue between the government of Bahrain and proponents of democratic constitutional reform.

1ac fleet

CONTENTION ONE IS THE FLEET

The BICI report has fundamentally changed the game – now is key – the alternative is the violent implosion of the country

Gershman, 12/1/11 [Carl, President of the National Endowment for Democracy, “The Price of Freedom and Democracy: Defiant Bahrainis and the Arab Spring”, http://www.ned.org/about/board/meet-our-president/archived-presentations-and-articles/the-price-of-freedom-and-democracy]

I want to begin by congratulating Nabeel Rajab for …

violence than we’ve seen so far.

The violence is worse than ever and it will target the US

Cunningham, 1/2/12 [Finian, Global Research’s Middle East and East Africa correspondent, “Bahrain: Crushing Pro-Democracy Protests. American and British Police Chiefs Step Up State Repression”, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=28452]

“The violence is worse ….

is the burning of American flags.

And, mass violence causes fleet kick out

Lippman, 11 [9/22,11, adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute and former Middle East bureau chief of the Washington Post (Thomas, “ The U.S. Dilemma in Bahrain,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/POMED-Policy-Brief_Lippman.pdf]

From a security perspective, …given the current turmoil.

And, uncertainty alone collapses deterrence -- and undermines sustainable Gulf military presence 

Noble, 11 [7/21, Stimson Center, “Anchors Away: The future of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain”, http://www.stimson.org/spotlight/the-us-fifth-fleet-in-bahrain/]

The home base of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet has … preventing any of these scenarios from materializing.

The impact is the collapse of hegemony

CBS News, 12/12/11 [“Arab Spring's uprisings reshape U.S. influence”, http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57341224/arab-springs-uprisings-reshape-u.s-influence/]

The case is often made that Washington was …

a step back in some places, but not in others."

And, Bahrain is key – power projection

Goodspeed, 11 [Peter, award winning reporter for the National Post February 14^th, Goodspeed Analysis: Unrest in Bahrain could threaten key U.S. military outpost”, http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/02/14/peter-goodspeed-unrest-in-bahrain-could-threaten-key-u-s-military-outpost/]

As riot police in Bahrain attacked hundreds of pro-…

 the Arab world suddenly engulfs the emirate.

And, sends a signal that kills perception of US resolve

Etzioni, 11 [Director of the Institute for Communitarian Policy Studies, George Wash U. Frmr sociology prof at Columbia PhD in sociology from UC Berkeley Amitai, The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility, March-April 2011, Military Review, http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf]

As of the beginning of 2011, these Sunni nations, …up to its commitments overseas.

And, failure to walk a fine line between assisting democracy and security interests collapses basing agreements

Cooley, 11 [Alexander Cooley, Foreign Affairs, Tow Professor of Political Science at Barnard College in New York, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show]

Washington's balancing act reflects more than the …

than be forced to scramble after it is under way.

And, such a collapse would end the US strategic relationship with Bahrain

Bockenfeld, 11 [10/4/11, Cole, POMED’s Director of Advocacy and Editor of the POMED Wire blog and the Weekly Wire digest  He has studied the Middle East for more than six years with a focus on U.S. and Middle Eastern politics, history, and the Arabic language at the University of Arkansas, Georgetown University, and Al al-Bayt University in Mafraq, Jordan.  Prior to joining POMED, he worked for the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) on electoral assistance programs in Iraq, Lebanon, Morocco, and the West Bank and Gaza, including fieldwork in Beirut and Baghdad.  He also conducted research with the Center for Islam and Democracy (CSID) in Amman. “Protecting the US-Bahraini relationship”, http://www.commongroundnews.org/article.php id=30471&lan=en&sp=0&isNew=1&partner=rss&emc=rss]

Washington, DC - The United States has …the very scenario both wish to avoid.

Decline unglues geopolitics—causes the worst conflicts and inhibits problem solving

Hirsh, 12/19/2011 [former Foreign Editor and chief correspondent for Newsweek written for Foreign Affairs, and Washington Monthly Hirsh was co-winner of the Overseas Press Club award for best magazine reporting from abroad in 2001 . “The End of the American Interlude”, http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/the-end-of-the-american-interlude-20111215]

Welcome to the future. What we are witnessing, at G-20 meetings and …

are rising—conflict is much more likely.

Kick out destroys Gulf-based BMD --- Bahrain’s the only viable port ---stabilizes the Middle East and deters war

Ellison 11—Riki, chairman and founder of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, "Unstable Momentum in Middle East Causes More US Need for Missile Defense", Feb 22, PR Newswire, http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/unstable-momentum-in-middle-east-causes-more-us-need-for-missile-defense-116674494.html

Today, for the first time in thirty years Iran is sending two …escalation. Missile defense makes our world safer.

And, permanent presence deters Iran   
Goure and Grant 9—Daniel, PhD, former Deputy Director of the International Security Program at the CSIS, and Rebecca, PhD, "US Naval Options for Influencing Iran", Lexington Institute, Report under consideration for publication in the Naval War College Review, http://www.lexingtoninstitute.org/library/resources/documents/Defense/us-naval-options.pdf

Iran also is seeking to develop a credible missile …armed with an insufficient quantity of missiles.

1ac shia

CONTENTION TWO IS THE SHIA

US failure to mediate a dialogue radicalizes Shia and spurs widespread sectarianism

Al-Ahmed & Jacobs 11 – Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs & Gulf Policy Analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs (Ali & Joshua, “The Crisis in Bahrain” Institute for Gulf Affairs, May 2011, http://www.scribd.com/doc/59873023/Bahrain-Policy-Paper, MCL)   

Analysis and Recommendations for US Policy While it may be ….

legitimize the opposition in the wake of the crisis.

Sectarianism causes extinction

Scheuer 2011 – Michael, professor of security studies at Georgetown spent twenty-two years in the CIA and is the author of Imperial Hubris: Why the West is Losing the War on Terrorism (The Sum of All Fears, The National Interest, March 17, 2011, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-sum-all-fears-5032?page=show, MCL)

With the West focused on Libya, Egypt, and Yemen, it may be in tiny Bahrain ….

once called "the sum of all fears."

And, Bahraini instability spills over to the Saudi eastern province – causes an oil shock and Saudi Iran war 

Bauer, 11 Specialising in Middle-Eastern and Maghreb affairs, William has worked and studied in the Levant, North-Africa and the Gulf, as well as having traveled extensively throughout the MENA region. His BA was in Middle-Eastern Studies and Arabic, from the Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies at the University of Exeter

 [November, “Further Bahrain Unrest Would Be Saudi Arabia's Worst Nightmare”, William, Specialising in Middle-Eastern and Maghreb affairs, William has worked and studied in the Levant, North-Africa and the Gulf, as well as having traveled extensively throughout the MENA region. His BA was in Middle-Eastern Studies and Arabic, from the Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies at the University of Exeter (UK), http://www.policymic.com/articles/further-bahrain-unrest-would-be-saudi-arabia-s-worst-nightmare]

For Saudi Arabia, this is a worrying development …

scenario of socio-economic crisis and political unrest.

And, oil would be 300 dollars a barrel – causes the economy to grind to a halt

Babej 11 - Contributor to Forbes [Marc E. Babej, “A Saudi Oil Supply Disruption-The Ultimate Marketing Crisis Scenario,” Forbes, 3/29/2011 @ 01:48PM |pg.  http://www.forbes.com/sites/marcbabej/2011/03/29/a-saudi-oil-supply-disruption-the-ultimate-marketing-crisis-scenario/] 

This morning, I had a very revealing conversation with Vance Scott, …

prices for products containing oil derivatives.

Global war

Auslin 9 (Michael, Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute, and Desmond Lachman, Resident Fellow – American Enterprise Institute, “The Global Economy Unravels”, Forbes, 3-6, http://www.aei.org/article/100187)

Conversely, global policymakers do not seem to have grasped …a series of small explosions that coalesce into a big bang.

Saudi Iran war goes nuclear

London, 10 [president of Hudson Institute and professor emeritus of New York University, Herbert,  “The Coming Crisis In The Middle East,” June 28, 2010, http://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east]

The coming storm in the Middle East is gaining momentum… holocaust could lead to a nuclear exchange.

US support de-escalates Shiite resentment regionally

Terrill, 11 [Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute (Andrew, “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World,” http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/The-Arab-Spring-and-the-Future-of-US-Interests/2011/8/2#bahrain)]

The conflict in Bahrain remains serious …

is paid to the needs of Bahraini Shi'ites.

1ac solvency

CONTENTION THREE IS SOLVENCY

Plan solves – supporting genuine dialogue creates space for reform

Aziz and Musalem, 11 – *legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law, holds an M.A. in Middle Eastern studies from the University of Texas AND **holds degrees in sociology as well as Middle Eastern language and cultures. Mr. Musalem grew up in Bahrain, where he has conducted social research, and has been a frequent visitor to the county over the past decade (Sahar and Abdullah, “Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement,” http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf)

Notwithstanding this intervention, Washington …

ideal; it is in the United States’ national interest.

And, opposition groups have called for dialogu” – evidence referencing the “national dialogue” doesn’t apply – actors are now ready to come to the table

AFP, 12/19/11 [“Bahrain opposition urges talks”, Agente France Press, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gzDdkobtrfgmiVO69MsqNU9nHAJg?docId=CNG.65f564f60f03ebab6c4103aa632a6e7a.361]

MANAMA — Bahrain opposition groups have …

plotting to overthrow the regime.

And, only the US can break the current political deadlock – roundtable negotiations are vital

Gershman, 12/1/11 [Carl, President of the National Endowment for Democracy, “The Price of Freedom and Democracy: Defiant Bahrainis and the Arab Spring”, http://www.ned.org/about/board/meet-our-president/archived-presentations-and-articles/the-price-of-freedom-and-democracy]

In fact, if there is not an accommodation in Bahrain, if ….

this opportunity and realize its full potential.

And, the US is the only actor with the influence to prevent Saudi meddling –action shows support and brings all actors to the table

Abrams, 11/25/11 [Elliot, former senior director for the Near East and deputy national security adviser handling Middle East affairs in the George W. Bush administration. He is now a senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, where he writes the blog Pressure Points, “Abrams: Last Chance of Bahrain”, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/25/abrams-last-chance-for-bahrain/]

The report this week by the international …

he makes in the coming months.

Too much pressure creates fissures in the relationship and collapses deterrence – plan is key middle path

Darling, 11 - an international military markets analyst with Forecast International Inc., an aerospace and defense research company. A graduate of Kansas State University with a degree in history, he specializes in the European and Middle Eastern regions at Forecast (Daniel, “Don’t Expect a Split in the U.S.-Bahrain Relationship,” 2/22, The Faster Times,

http://www.thefastertimes.com/defensespending/2011/02/22/dont-expect-a-split-in-the-u-s-bahrain-relationship/

It is no surprise, therefore, that tensions …

from those nations allied to its interests.

2ac fleet

Even if they win their fifth fleet bad arguments – in the short term, it is better to stay and maintain a balanced naval capability

McDevitt, 2011 - Rear Admiral Michael, director, Strategic Studies, Center for Naval Analyses (Shrinking the Status-Quo Navy, Proceedings Magazine - February 2011 Vol. 137/2/1,296, http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2011-02/strategic-choices-tipping-point, MCL)

The same sort of speculation ….as much balance as possible.

We can’t relocate the fleet—Bahrain is the only option
 GUNDUN AND ISODOR 2011 (James and Dwight, political scientists and counterinsurgency analysts at Octopus Mountain, “Winds of Change Rocking Bahrain’s Fifth Fleet,” The Trench, July 22, http://hadalzone.blogspot.com/2011/07/winds-of-change-rocking-bahrains-fifth.html)
 No one can deny this fact. Many Bahrainis happen to …Command lists its staff at 28,000.

Way too expensive and the tech isn’t developed yet

Till, 6 (Geoffrey, “NAVAL TRANSFORMATION, GROUND FORCES, AND THE EXPEDITIONARY IMPULSE: THE SEA-BASING DEBATE”, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub743.pdf)

Whether even the United States can …sea-basing’s full potential.

Carriers solve the terminal impacts – robust fleet prevents crisis escalation

Eaglen 8 – Senior Policy Analyst for National Security at the Heritage Foundation (Mackenzie, Aug 1st, “Aircraft Carriers Are Crucial”, The Washington Post)

For any U.S. president, the aircraft carrier …

Katrina, for instance, they placed a central role.

cost analysis proves larger carriers are beneficial – increase in deterrent and power projection capabilities

Higgins 2004 – Sean, Lieutenant commander of the US Navy (Future Carrier vs. Super Carrier: New Issues and Technologies, CSC 2004, Subject Area National Military Strategy, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf&AD=ADA491892, MCL)

The argument for smaller carriers does have …a forward presence and ensure command of the seas.

Forward basing key to deterrence
 Gerson and Whiteneck 9 (Michael Gerson and Daniel Whiteneck, CNA Strategic Studies, “Deterrence and Influence: The Navy's Role in Preventing War,” March 2009) http://www.cna.org/research/2009/deterrence-influence-navys-role-preventing-war
 In general deterrence, the intended deterrent effect is …simultaneously assure allies and deter adversaries.

The fleet checks Iran aggression

Winegard, 11 [3/11/11, “Understanding Bahrain: How Bahrain Shines a Light on Imperial Policies”, http://www.opednews.com/articles/2/Understanding-Bahrain-How-by-Benjamin-Winegard-110308-808.html]

Bahrain is an important strategic ally of the US: it promotes "… is an eventuality that is not acceptable to US policy makers.

2ac shia overview

Recent evidence matters – this has created a profound change in the region

Khouri, 10/19/11 [Rami G, “A Saudi-Iranian cold war takes shape”, The Daily Star, http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Columnist/2011/Oct-19/151642-a-saudi-iranian-cold-war-takes-shape.ashx#axzz1crrvhSGJ]

The Middle East continues to experience ….

repercussions of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Reignites ancient tensions

Sly, 10/12/11 [“Long rivalry between Saudis, Iranians likely to heat up”, Liz, Washington Post, http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/mobile/?type=story&id=2016485576&]

BEIRUT — The sudden escalation of tensions

Abdullah's most trusted confidantes.

The magnitude of the internal link outweighs -- the shock wouldn’t be short lived, but long and protracted

The Economist, 11 [February, “The world is badly placed to cope with another oil crisis”, http://www.economist.com/node/18233452]

The worst-case scenario for oil prices ….

to cause trouble will not diminish.

me war escalates globally

Russell, 9 – Editor of Strategic Insights, Senior Lecturer Department of National Security Affairs (James, Spring, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” Security Studies Center Proliferation Papers, http://www.ifri.org/downloads/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf)

Strategic stability in the region is thus …

risk for the entire world.

2ac t

1. CI – DA includes institutionalizing dialogue between the regime and civil society

Huber, 8 - Hebrew University of Jerusalem Department of International Relations (Daniela, Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 13, No. 1, 43–62, March 2008, “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies”, ebsco) 

What is Democracy Assistance?

The term democracy assistance is used in ….

indirectly through the strengthening of networks.

USAID says provision of advice for constitutional democratization is T

Alford, 2k - Prof of Law @ Harvard (William P. Alford 2k 113 Harv. L. Rev. 1677 “BOOK REVIEW: EXPORTING "THE PURSUIT OF HAPPINESS" Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve. By Thomas Carothers,” lexis

C. Your Society Can Be Civil, Too: The …

to the attainment of democracy, economic success, and social stability.

Most democracy assistance is expertise, not money

Carothers, 2k - vice-president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Thomas, American Democracy Promotion, eds: Cox, Ikenberry and Inoguchi, p. 191)

The term 'aid' conjures up the idea of …legal protections for independent media.

Mediation is technical assistance

USAID, 5 - United States Agency for International Development, 3-31-2005, “USAID Alternative Dispute Resolution Activities In Latin America and the Caribbean,” http://www.usaid.gov/locations/latin_america_caribbean/democracy/adr/dg_conflict2a.html

The USAID democracy and governance program in …

with the input of mediation experts.

Prefer it –

--it’s the only topical Bahrain aff – traditional democracy assistance is impossible when dealing with authoritarian governments, institutionalizing a dialogue is the only mechanism

Err affirmative on reasonability –

-          they overlimit - the topic mechanism is horrible for the aff and there are almost no credible solvency advocates

-          we don’t unlimit – negative generics like international CPs and conditioning destroy almost all small affirmatives, and the literature base isn’t deep enough to support small mechanisms

-         No abuse – we have a predictable solvency advocate, have a large change explicitly linked to democracy and link to all of their disads. 

2ac politics – ptc

plan solves impact

Obama wont use PC – he wont engage congress or negotiate – he’ll go to the public

Washington Post 1/1

(“Obama taking fight to Congress,” pg lexis//ef)

President Obama has a New Year's …to advance his policies before the election.

Republicans will block all of Obama’s agenda for political reasons

Donna Brazile, Democratic strategist and a political commentator on CNN, ABC and NPR, as well as a contributing columnist to Roll Call, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 11-2-11, p. Lexis

With an economy still in recovery, …to save us from the "Great Depression 2.0."

And, Keystone XL will be a battle –risks backlash for Obama

The Hill 1/2

(“White House, GOP battle for supremacy on Keystone pipeline,” pg online @ http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/201917-white-house-gop-battle-for-supremacy-on-keystone //ef)

With President Obama’s decision on the Keystone …payroll tax package that passed in December.

nominations battles coming in January – GOP will block ALL of them

USA Today 12/28

(“Senate politics shut down some agencies;

Refusing to approve the president's key nominees can lead to a 'slow death',” pg lexis//ef)

When Senate Republicans filibustered President Obama's …a 15-member board to recommend Medicare cost savings for an up-or-down vote by Congress.

Wont Pass – conferees set up to fail

Washington Monthly 12/31

(“Extend the Payroll Tax Break while it lasts,” pg online @ http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal/2011_12/enjoy_the_payroll_tax_break_wh034436.php# //ef)

Last week, after a needlessly-contentious ….to say “both sides” failed to reach an agreement.

And, GOP doesn’t want to extend it and cant agree on costs

Sacramento Bee 12/27

(“Payroll tax deal just sets the stage,” pg online @ http://www.sacbee.com/2011/12/27/4146653/payroll-tax-deal-just-sets-the.html //ef)

WASHINGTON – When Congress handily passed a bill to set payroll tax rates, jobless benefits and Medicare doctors' fees for the next two months, it seemed to end an epic political struggle between President Barack Obama and Republicans on Capitol Hill. In fact, that was just the beginning.  Every issue in dispute remains …September 2013.Democrats generally oppose that idea.

Not solve econ

Foster 10/24 –Kmele, co-founder and vice president of TelecIO, a telecommunications consultancy in Maryland (Obama on the road, http://www.boortz.com/weblogs/jamie-dupree/2011/oct/24/obama-road/, MCL)

Earlier this month, the president's jobs bill …to simplify the tax code, broaden the base and lower rates on corporations and individuals.

Political capital theory isn’t true with this congress

Bouie 11  - Jamelle, graduate of the U of Virginia, Writing Fellow for The American Prospect magazine (Political Capital, the American Prospect, http://prospect.org/article/political-capital, May 5, MCL)

Unfortunately, political capital isn’t that …part of presidential success in Congress, but it’s far from sufficient.

Winners win for Obama --- inaction burns capital

Kuttner 11 (Robert, Co-Founder and Co-Editor – American Prospect and Distinguished Senior Fellow – Demos (Think Tank), “Barack Obama’s Theory of Power”, The American Prospect, 5-16,http://prospect.org/cs/articles?article=barack_obamas_theory_of_power)

Obama’s critics contend that his prolonged fantasy of ….of power. For the most part, it hasn’t worked.

Obama will resort to executive action

Pace 12-31 – Julie, (In 2012, Obama to press ahead without Congress, Associated Press, December 31, 2011, http://ph.news.yahoo.com/2012-obama-press-ahead-without-congress-110509288.html, MCL)

HONOLULU (AP) — Leaving behind a year of …rating climbing as Congress becomes increasingly unpopular.

Obama’s already urged reform within the regime – plan is just more of the same
 WSJ 11 (March 5, 2011, “U.S. wavers on ‘Regime Change,’”http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703580004576180522653787198.html)

Arab diplomats believe the push worked. Defense ….Bahrain was just too important to fail."

Democracy assistance has strong bipartisan support

Mitchell and Phillips, 8 – *professor in the Practice of International Politics at Columbia University’s School of International and Political Affairs AND ** project director of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy and currently a visiting scholar at Columbia University’s Center for the Study of Human Rights (Lincoln and David, “Enhancing Democracy Assistance”, http://www.acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/65/Enhancing%20Democracy%20Assistance.pdf)

Democracy assistance has typically enjoyed broad …briefing paper to candidates in the 2008 election.

No link –

a. total budget is capped – tradeoffs will occur

McInerney, 11 - is Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy (Stephen, "The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012 DEMOCRACY, GOVERNANCE, AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST”, July, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf)

It is impossible to evaluate levels of …

conditions and emerging opportunities.

2ac pressure

Pressure fails – it’s perceived as the beginning of a break in the US-Bahrain relationship. More moderate forms – like the plan’s dialogue – will get Bahrain on board. The perception that the US is willing to break the alliance destroys deterrence credibility and triggers adventurism – that’s Darling and Terrill.

Counterplan would be a bluff – Arms sale cut off will be determined by the BICI report

Wolf 10-19 – Jim, writer for reuters (U.S. delays Bahrain arms sale pending rights probe, Reuters, October 19, 2011, http://www.newsdaily.com/stories/tre79i7mi-us-bahrain-usa-arms/, MCL)

 The Obama administration has told U.S. lawmakers it is …Libya, Syria and Yemen.

The GCC will fill in absent US involvement – plan is key to reassurance

Knigge 2011 – Michael, headed up the German editorial team of DW-WORLD.DE since 2004. Previously, he worked as a reporter for the English service of Deutsche Welle Radio, as well as for various news agencies (Washington has vested interest but little leverage in Bahrain, deutsche well, http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,14941531,00.html, March 25, 2011, MCL)

** Graeme Herd, who heads the …

from the GCC," says Herd.

Doesn’t solve our Shia internal link – outreach that includes cultivating direct ties with the opposition is vital to building relations – that’s Cooley and Slackman

CP links to politics more than the plan

Turse 11 – Nick, historian, essayist, investigative journalist, the associate editor of TomDispatch.com, and currently a fellow at Harvard University’s Radcliffe Institute (How the Tiny Kingdom of Bahrain Strong-Armed the President of the United States, Foreign Policy in Focus, a project for the Institute for Policy Studies, 3/16, http://www.fpif.org/articles/the_arab_lobby, MCL)

In the midst of the violence, Human Rights Watch …

the U.S. and Bahraini naval forces."

2ac canada fund ned cp

Normal means is State DRL, not USAID/______ *whatever their trade-off da is*

State Department, 11 (“Fact Sheet: U.S. Support for Democratic Reform in Bahrain,” 5/19,

http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/english/texttrans/2011/05/20110519125915su0.9836171.html#axzz1YIRd5cQ0

U.S. Support for Democratic Reform in Bahrain

The State Department has a long history of …

reconciliation and comprehensive political dialogue.

Artic war impact is all hype—disputes are settled and cooperation will continue

Sotnikov 10 (4/23/10, RIA Novosti, “There is no Race for the Arctic - Norwegian expert” by RIA Novosti correspondent Ivan Sotnikov interviewing Willy Ostreng-Professor and Chairman of the Research Institute Ocean Futures of Norway http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20100423/158712741.html)

Willy Ostreng, Professor and Chairman of the …not an invitation for a race, but for international cooperation.

Perm Do both

Politics links prove the CP solves nothing – Congress will mess with NED if it doesn’t like specific programs

Nautre, 8 - Visiting Scholar at the Center for Contemporary Arab Studies, School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University (Zoe, “US Interests in the Arab World: Democracy Promotion by American NGOs,” http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/usa/05487.pdf

Thomas Melia, vice president of Freedom ….for the organization.5

NED acts through the NDI

NDI, no date – National Democratic Institute (http://www.ndi.org/node/15048)

NDI is one of four core institutes of the National Endowment …America, the Middle East, and the former Soviet Union.

Bahrain will shut it down without higher level US involvement

BCHR, 10 – Bahrain Center for Human Rights (“Preventing the Director of the NDI from entering Bahrain,” 5/12,

http://www.bahrainrights.org/en/node/3093)

The Bahrain Center for Human Rights expresses …

the civil society institutions.

1ac loyola

The United States Federal Government should provide substantial support to mediate genuine dialogue between the government of Bahrain and proponents of democratic constitutional reform.

Plan solves – supporting genuine dialogue creates space for reform

Aziz and Musalem, 11 – *legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law, holds an M.A. in Middle Eastern studies from the University of Texas AND **holds degrees in sociology as well as Middle Eastern language and cultures. Mr. Musalem grew up in Bahrain, where he has conducted social research, and has been a frequent visitor to the county over the past decade (Sahar and Abdullah, “Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement,” http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf)

Notwithstanding this intervention, …..

United States’ national interest.

The alternative is fleet kick out

Lippman, 11 [9/22,11, adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute and former Middle East bureau chief of the Washington Post (Thomas, “ The U.S. Dilemma in Bahrain,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/POMED-Policy-Brief_Lippman.pdf]

From a security perspective, it is just as ….no choice given the current turmoil.

Collapses deterrence -- and undermines sustainable Gulf presence 

Noble, 11 [7/21, Stimson Center, “Anchors Away: The future of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain”, http://www.stimson.org/spotlight/the-us-fifth-fleet-in-bahrain/]

The home base of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet has ….

any of these scenarios from materializing.

That’s key to hegemony – alternative triggers conflict

Cropsey 10—Seth, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, former Naval Officer and deputy senior under secretary of the Navy in the administration of Reagan and BushII, "The US Navy in Distress", Strategic Analysis, Vol. 34 No. 1, January, http://www.hudson.org/files/publications/Cropsey_US_Navy_In_Distress.pdf

American maritime strategy has played …

large resources needed to recoup seapower surrendered slowly over decades.

Heg is comparatively best at reducing international violence

Kagan 2011 – PhD, graduate of Yale and Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, CFR member, US ambassador to NATO, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (1/24, Robert, Weekly Standard, “The price of power”, http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533696.html?page=1, WEA)

The only way to find substantial savings in the …

security, can prove so unfortunate?

Specifically, expanding trade solidifies global peace. Overall conflict rates decrease with it

Gartzke, 5 – associate professor of political science at Columbia University and author of a study on economic freedom and peace contained in the 2005 Economic Freedom of the World Report (Erik, “Future Depends on Capitalizing on Capitalist Peace,” 10/18, Windsor Star, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=5133)

With terrorism achieving "global reach" and …

from this historic opportunity.

These claims rely on a testable empirical method

Weede 4 – professor of sociology at the University of Bonn, Germany, In Winter 1986-87, he was Visiting Professor of International Relations at the Bologna Center of The Johns Hopkins University. (Erich, “BALANCE OF POWER, GLOBALIZATION, AND THE CAPITALIST PEACE,” http://www.fnf.org.ph/downloadables/Balance%20of%20Power,%20Globalization%20and%20Capitalist%20Peace.pdf)

If one does research or summarize the research of others – of course, most of the ….

unsystematically evaluated empirical evidence.

Primacy is key—heg reduces war by making democratic peace resilient and globalization sustainable

Owen 11 John M. Owen Professor of Politics at University of Virginia PhD from Harvard "DON’T DISCOUNT HEGEMONY" Feb 11 www.cato-unbound.org/2011/02/11/john-owen/dont-discount-hegemony/

Andrew Mack and his colleagues at the Human ….

 United States as the global hegemon.

Focus on deterrence and democracy is key to avert escalation – reject infinite root causes that debilitate action

Moore 4 – Professor of Law at the University of Virginia. He formerly served as the first Chairman of the Board of the United States Institute of Peace and as the Counselor on International Law to the Department of State. (John Norton, Winter, “Beyond the Democratic Peace: Solving the War Puzzle”, 44 Va. J. Int'l L. 341, Lexis Law)

If major interstate war is predominantly a product of a synergy ….

are dramatically increased or decreased?

Low deterrence is a key correlate of war

Moore 4 – Professor of Law at the University of Virginia. He formerly served as the first Chairman of the Board of the United States Institute of Peace and as the Counselor on International Law to the Department of State. (John Norton, Winter, “Beyond the Democratic Peace: Solving the War Puzzle”, 44 Va. J. Int'l L. 341, Lexis Law)

As so broadly conceived, there is strong evidence that …

is, deterrence, that become crucial.

Short term disruptions are important to focus on—warfare is highly unlikely absent shocks to the democratic system

Horgan 2009 – John, director of the Center for Science at Stevens Institute of Technology, former senior writer at Scientific American (The End of the Age of war, www.newsweek.com/id/225616/page/1, December 7, 2009)

The economic crisis was supposed to …may finally come to pass.

Chaos might be inevitable but its worst manifestations can be checked by intelligent preparedness

Flynn, 07  (Stephen, senior fellow for national security studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Consulting Professor, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University, The Edge of Disaster: Rebuilding a Resilient Nation, p. 9-10)

Thinking about and preparing for …when things go wrong.

Positivism has sufficient explanatory power.  Resting on specific claims is best

Houghton 8 [Associate Professor of International Relations Theory at the University of Central Florida (David Patrick, Positivism ‘vs’ Postmodernism: Does Epistemology Make a Difference? International Politics (2008) 45 ) ]

As long ago as 1981, Yale Ferguson and Richard Mansbach ….divides the international relations scene today.

This is specifically useful in the context of international problems.  Radical post-positivism is incapable of assessing available alternatives

SØRENSEN, Prof of IR, 98  [GEORG SØRENSEN, Professor of International Politics and Economics @ Aarhus Univ. “IR Theory after the cold war” Review of International Studies (1998), 24 : 83-100 Cambridge University Press]

What, then, are the more general problems with the extreme …is metatheoretically compelled to embrace any conceivable change project.28

Nothing “spills over” outside the round, but in the context of this topic, application of specific expertise is useful

Walt 11 – Stephen M. Walt, Professor of International Affairs at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, July 21, 2011, “International Affairs and the Public Sphere,” online: http://publicsphere.ssrc.org/walt-international-affairs-and-the-public-sphere/

Academics can make at least three distinct ….

scholars who produce it might wish.

2ac loyola

The relationship towards death is, and must be, an individual determination—if a person perceives their interests as valuable, or that death will be a different state, then our obligation would be to prevent their death

Paterson, 03 - Department of Philosophy, Providence College, Rhode Island (Craig, “A Life Not Worth

Living?”, Studies in Christian Ethics, http://sce.sagepub.com)

In determining whether a life is ….to determine for himself or herself.

Affirming survival doesn’t devalue life – life is complex and malleable and can be celebrated even when it seems oppressive (democratic forces check)

Fassin, 10 - James D. Wolfensohn Professor in the School of Social Science at the Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton, as well as directeur d’études at the École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales, Paris. (Didier, Fall, “Ethics of Survival: A Democratic Approach to the Politics of Life” Humanity: An International Journal of Human Rights, Humanitarianism, and Development, Vol 1 No 1, Project Muse)

Conclusion

Survival, in the sense Jacques Derrida attributed to ….

in its everyday expression of the human.

Avoiding suffering is DISTINCT from fearing death—extreme anguish is NEVER justified because it’s imposed on others. 

Edelglass 6 William Edelglass is Assistant Professor of Philosophy at Marlboro College, “LEVINAS ON SUFFERING AND COMPASSION” Sophia, Vol. 45, No. 2, October 2006

Because suffering is a pure passivity, lived as the …that overwhelms subjectivity.

Death outweighs –ontologically destroys the subject and prevents any alternative way of knowing the world

Paterson, 03 – Department of Philosophy, Providence College, Rhode Island (Craig, “A Life Not Worth Living?”, Studies in Christian Ethics, http://sce.sagepub.com)

Contrary to those accounts, I ….

 condition of all human  possibility.82

Knowing things outside the self is good.  The claim that all knowledge should be within and that trying to understand the outside world is violent is patently bullshit.

Russell ’12 Bertrand, philosopher and activist, founder of analytic philosophy “The Value of Philosophy” http://www.skepdic.com/russell.html

Apart from its utility in showing unsuspected possibilities, philosophy has a ….circle for fear his word might not be law.

Truth exists and it’s good to affirm

Sokal, 97 (Alan, professor of physics at New York University, “A Plea for Reason, Evidence and Logic”,

http://www.physics.nyu.edu/faculty/sokal/nyu_forum.html)

This affair has brought up an incredible number of issues, and I can't ….Left, then it will have served its purpose.

Provisional truth and meaning are possible

Ferris 92 Timothy, Emeritus Prof @ Berkeley & Fellow at American Association for the Advancement of Science, The Mind's Sky: Human Intelligence in a Cosmic Context

This is not to say that every opinion about the …," Sciama remarked, "so let's find out about it."

The aff never claims that absolute truths exist – but some proximite ‘truths’ exist – it is better to act as though that is true because it is useful and inevitable in decision making.

Suzanna Sherry, 1996, Earl R. Larson Professor of Civil Rights and Civil Liberties Law – University of Minnesota, 84 Geo. L.J. 453, February, l/n

In order to make even such a limited defense, however, I must first …were. It remains only to give that epistemology content.

Their k is irrational—we don’t know enough about death to choose it as an option—defer to the side of caution because our impact is extinction—if we’re wrong, we can always kill ourselves later.  If they’re wrong, the world is gone forever

Paterson, 03 - Department of Philosophy, Providence College, Rhode Island (Craig, “A Life Not Worth

Living?”, Studies in Christian Ethics, http://sce.sagepub.com)

By engaging in such comparisons of future lives, the conclusion is ….for objective rational choice.

1ac islamophobia

The US is increasing contact with Egyptian political groups but still designates a category of violent groups and excludes them

Duss 1-12 – Matt, Policy Analyst at the Center for American Progress (Talking to the Muslim Brotherhood (finally), Salon.Com, January 12, 2012, http://www.salon.com/2012/01/12/talking_to_the_muslim_brotherhood_finally/singleton/, MCL)

 Last week, the New York Times reported that the …

 the political process above your party.”

This is officially mandated US policy—diplomats maintain a condition of disavowing violence for diplomatic contact

Burns 1-11 – William J., an American diplomat, is the current Deputy Secretary of State and the highest ranked Foreign Service Officer in the United States(Deputy Secretary, William J. Burns Interview With Lamis el Hadidi, CBC TV, Embassy of the United States – Cairo, Egypt, http://egypt.usembassy.gov/tr011112.html, MCL)

QUESTION: You are meeting with …

to those democratic principles.

This rhetoric imposes a social organization whereby individuals are either moderates just like us or irrational, fundamentalist radicals.  It conflates religion and politics and is grounded in a desire to remake Islam in our benevolent image and thus control it

Ramadan 2010 – Tariq, professor of Islamic Studies at the Faculty of Theology at Oxford (Good Muslim, Bad Muslim”, Middle East Online, First Published: 2010-03-17, http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=37897, MCL)

The dust from the collapse of the twin towers had hardly ….

of Islam, we must move forward and place their political positions in context.

These organizations are based on historical ignorance and a desire to re-socialize subjects into useful categories.  Understandings of Good and Bad Muslims generate political misunderstandings and sanitize imperialism

Ali 2009 – Ali, doctoral student in social sciences, writer of the blog “inside sectarianism” (Good Muslim, Bad Muslim: Cracking the Media Code, Islamic Insights, November 9, 2009, http://islamicinsights.com/news/opinion/good-muslim-bad-muslim-cracking-the-media-code.html, MCL)

A False Sense of Moral ….

to the West Bank, not Gaza, and then to Egypt, where he delivered his now popular Cairo speech.

In the context of Egypt, moderation discourse prioritizes immediate security panics over the social processes of changing political circumstances and results in tabloid understandings

Pogodda 2011 – Sandra, Research Fellow in the School of International Relations at the University of St Andrew, (Obama, the EU and the Middle East“, L’Europe en formation no.360 Summer 2011)

Rather than concerns over the domestic legitimacy of …may have accelerated Mubarak's resignation.

These understandings of Islam serve to confirm broader strands of interpersonal prejudice and make extinction possible

Munjid 2011 – Achmad, president of the Nahdlatul Ulama community in North America. (Overcoming Islamophobia in the United States, Jakarta Post, March 27, 2011, http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/03/27/overcoming-islamophobia-united-states.html, MCL)

Remember, as institutionalized hatred, …, all “others” become the enemy.

Perpetuating the imagery of the fanatical Other becomes used to destroy any current threat to subjugation.  The analytical distinguishing determines physical exclusion that threatens violence

Pinar Batur, PhD @ UT-Austin – Prof. of Sociology @ Vassar, 07 [“The Heart of Violence: Global Racism, War, and Genocide,” in Handbook of The Sociology of Racial and Ethnic Relations, eds. Vera and Feagin, p. 446-7]

At the turn of the 20th century, the “Terrible Turk” was …opened up with genocide, in Darfur.

These racist underpinnings must be rejected

Memmi 2k (Albert, Professor Emeritus of Sociology @ Unv. Of Paris; RACISM, translated by Steve Martinot, pp.163-)SEW

The struggle against racism will be long, difficult, .. but the stakes are irresistible.

The United States Federal Government should make political party support available for political parties in Egypt regardless of their use of force.

Aiding “Islamists” helps reclaim democracy from Islamophobia by shattering perceived incompatibilities.  Prioritizing liberal principles and the revocation of aid are two sides of the same coin – both sanction disciplinary reaches to confirm superiority of Western democracy

Teti, 7 (Andrea, Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Aberdeen, “Confessions of a Dangerous Paradigm: Democratisation, Transitology and Orientalism”)

[The bio-politics of failure: Disciplining the Failed Other] A key element …

(Freire), and ‘accountable positioning’ (Haraway).

Divisions of “moderates” and “extremists” demonize and essentialize – this promulgates Orientalism and obstructs just policy. The plan is a necessary way to recognize the complexities of Islamic identity

Aly 2005 - Waleed Aly is an executive member of the Islamic Council of Victoria (The clash of ignorance, The Age Australia, August 6, 2005, http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/the-clash-of-ignorance/2005/08/06/1123125843879.html, MCL)

Westerners like to divide Muslims into "moderates" … thoughts is simply too compromised. That we have only ever come to study Islam in an environment of conflict necessarily colours our reading of it.

Absent this – people will scapegoat those seen as “dangerous” without any basis in reality. Only a plan that changes the substance of current policy can resolve error replication and build coalitions

Miliband 2009 – David, Member of Parliament (MP) for South Shields since 2001, and was the Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs from 2007 to 2010 (Our Shared Future: Building Coalitions and Winning Consent, Oxford Center For Islamic Studies, Mansion House, May 21st, 2009, http://davidmiliband.net/speech/our-shared-future-building-coalitions-and-winning-consent/, MCL)

Building Coalitions

Over the last decade the focus of the relationship ….

preach that we are the enemy.

1ac is important how we relate to Egypt – assumptions create epistemic communities and affect political outcomes. Voting aff is a necessary prerequisite to intelligent gestures

Said ‘3 (Edward, Prof. of Comparative Literature and English @ Columbia, Orientalism, “Preface (2003)”, pgs. xiv-xxiii)

I should say again that I have no "real" Orient to …interrupted road to human freedom.

2ac case

Utilitarianism a racist tool of mass sacrifice- war on iraq proves

Kelly ‘04

[Mark Kelly,University of Sydney, Sept 04 Contretemps 4, http://72.14.203.104/search?q=cache:BRh4yl9I1sQJ:www.usyd.edu.au/contretemps/4september2004/Kelly.pdf+utilitarianism+and+racism&hl=en&gl=us&ct=clnk&cd=1]

What then is the principle for dividing the …… agenda of their own biopolity.

2ac topicality

We meet – Democracy assistance is 4 things – includes political party assistance

McMahon, 2 – Dean’s Prof. Applied Politics @ Binghamton (Edward R., Director, Center on Democratic Performance, ―The Impact of U.S. Democracy and Governance Assistance in Africa: Benin Case Study Aug 29-Sept 1, http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PCAAB068.pdf)

U.S. Democracy Assistance

Donor agencies may differ somewhat …

other disadvantaged groups, and effective transfer of political power.15

We are topical under electoral assistance – includes technical assistance

Carothers, 97 - Director of Research at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Thomas, Democracy assistance: The

question of strategy, Democratization, 4:3, 109-132, Taylor and Francis)

The list of institutions and processes …reach, and strong campaign capacities.6

Most democracy assistance is expertise not money

Carothers, 2k - vice-president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Thomas, American Democracy Promotion, eds: Cox, Ikenberry and Inoguchi, p. 191)

The term 'aid' conjures up the …to establish better legal protections for independent media.

Prefer our interpretation –

1. Key to Aff flexibility – party assistance does not involve money transfer and the only restriction is non violent groups – we are the only topical way to increase party assistance

Abdel-Baky ‘11

Mohamed Abdel-Baky, Al-Ahram, “Reiterating the differences,” 18 - 24 August 2011, Issue No. 1061

"The problem is that there has been a … create an open and democratic system," Feltman said.

2. They overlimit – eliminates aff that increase the ability for certain groups to get aid – makes it impossible to be aff which is already difficult due to the large lit base for international actor cps and politics

Reasonability is best – better to focus on substance – competing interpretation leads to a race to the bottom – the litmus test should be debateability

2ac politics

Engagement with the Muslim Brotherhood triggering Republican opposition

New York Times, 1-3-12, p. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/04/world/middleeast/us-reverses-policy-in-reaching-out-to-muslim-brotherhood.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2&hp

CAIRO — With the Muslim Brotherhood ….

region’s Islamist opposition long ago.

Not top of the docket --- next week is a formality, won’t pass for months 

AP 1-18

(“Congress Revisiting Bruising Payroll Tax Cut Fight”)

With television lights glaring, 20 lawmakers will gather …for the trillions of dollars in savings needed.

desire for economic security is used as an imperial mission

Steinmetz assoc prof sociology @ UM 2k3 (George “The State of Emergency and the Revival of American Imperialism: Toward an Authoritarian Post-Fordism” Public Culture 15(2): 323–345)

The kind of outcome that attracts the most …mode of political regulation. 

The PTC doesn’t solve consumer confidence or jobs

Bartlett, 11 [August, “The Case Against a Payroll Tax Cut”, Bruce, advisor to Reagan and treasury official under Bush, M.A. Georgetown, ook, The New American Economy: The Failure of Reaganomics and a New Way Forward, http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/30/the-case-against-a-payroll-tax-cut/]

In theory, the payroll tax cut has ….

will become permanent, undermining Social Security’s long-term finances.

Systematic research proves capital is irrelevant

Edwards, 9 – Distinguished Professor of Political Science at Texas A&M University, holds the George and Julia Blucher Jordan Chair in Presidential Studies and has served as the Olin Professor of American Government at Oxford [George, “The Strategic President”, Printed by the Princeton University Press, pg. 149-150]

Even presidents who appeared to dominate Congress … always be a minority in each chamber.

Studies and empirics prove no war impact –

Miller, 2k (Morris, economist, adjunct professor in the University of Ottawa’s Faculty of Administration, consultant on international development issues, former Executive Director and Senior Economist at the World Bank, Winter, Interdisciplinary Science Reviews, Vol. 25, Iss. 4, “Poverty as a cause of wars?” p. Proquest)

The question may be reformulated. Do wars spring from a popular ….form of violence to abort another).

2ac gender

Permutation do both – focusing on both gender, islamophobia and orientalism solves the kritik better

Zine 2006 - Jasmin Zine is an assistant professor in the department of sociology at Wilfrid Laurier University (Between Orientalism and Fundamentalism: The Politics of Muslim Women’s Feminist Engagement, Muslim World Journal of Human Rights, Volume 3, Issue 1 2006 Article 5 SPECIAL ISSUE: POST-SEPTEMBER 11TH DEVELOPMENTS IN HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE MUSLIM WORLD, MCL)

 Developing a more cohesive framework …woven through the ‘new world order’.

The ‘good’ vs ‘bad’ Muslim dichotomy applies with feminism – breaking down that distinction allows for a more diverse account of Islamic feminism – alternative fails without the plan being a starting point because the politics of fear will always overwhelm

Zine 2006 - Jasmin Zine is an assistant professor in the department of sociology at Wilfrid Laurier University (Between Orientalism and Fundamentalism: The Politics of Muslim Women’s Feminist Engagement, Muslim World Journal of Human Rights, Volume 3, Issue 1 2006 Article 5 SPECIAL ISSUE: POST-SEPTEMBER 11TH DEVELOPMENTS IN HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE MUSLIM WORLD, MCL)

Entangled within these binaries, Muslim feminists battle not …from the social and political margins.

Islamophobia is a cultural trope invoked to prop up the national security state, and requires the annihilation of all difference, including sexual difference – our aff is a prerequisite to social change

Povey, 9 – lecturer in the Department of Arabic and Islamic Studies at the University of Sydney, Australia (Tara, Cosmopolitan Civil Societies Journal, Vol. 1, No. 2, 2009, “Islamophobia and Arab and Muslim Women’s Activism”,

http://epress.lib.uts.edu.au/ojs/index.php/mcs/article/view/1040)

In this paper I argue that Islamophobia is a …to national security (Young, 2003, p. 8).

Their criticism is from a Western feminist perspective which focuses patriarchal relations as the root of violence and unwittingly reproduces oppression in other forms by its unwillingness to take racism as a starting point – a focus on Islamophobia is a prerequisite to effective strategies of resistance

Povey, 9 – lecturer in the Department of Arabic and Islamic Studies at the University of Sydney, Australia (Tara, Cosmopolitan Civil Societies Journal, Vol. 1, No. 2, 2009, “Islamophobia and Arab and Muslim Women’s Activism”,

http://epress.lib.uts.edu.au/ojs/index.php/mcs/article/view/1040)

Ideas of ‘civilising the Orient’ which … white racial superiority (Fekete, 2008, p. 10).

2ac capitalism

There is no all-encompassing capitalist system – their totalizing qritiq makes coherent analysis of economic power impossible

DeLanda, ‘97, Adjunct Associate Professor – Graduate School of Architecture, Planning and Preservation – Columbia University, A Thousand Years of Nonlinear History, p. 46-8

Even in this age of huge multinational …the population of commercial and industrial institutions.63

Permutation- plan AND alternative, plan AS alternative, plan WITH alternative, plan PLUS alternative

Marxist theory historically emerged in the context of Eurocentric techno-science that fetishizes an event of totalizing and historically inevitable change to fight oppression—only the permutation which incorporates pragmatic non-revolutionary political understandings can yield a positiviely self-reflexive ‘autonomist’ Marxism

Day ‘5 Richard, professor in the department of global development at Queen's University “Gramsci is Dead: Anarchist Currents in the Newest Social Movements” http://www.scribd.com/doc/19280772/Gramsci-is-Dead

In tracking the difficult emergence of …under a common project.