MSU Miller Zemel Aff

Coast Aff Round 1

Plan – The President of the United States should issue a directive requiring a substantial expansion, without religious-based restriction, of political party training in Egypt.

Contention 1 --- IRF

International Religious Freedom—or IRF—hasn’t been integrated into U.S. policy --- presidential leadership’s key

Grieboski 11 (Joseph K., Founder and Chair – The Institute on Religion and Public Policy, “U.S. Foreign Policy and International Religious Expression”, CQ Congressional Testimony, 6-3, Lexis)

IRFA was passed in 1998 because of a

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and impactful an issue to be handled halfheartedly.

Obama’s mandate ends exclusion of the Islamic MB and empowers embassies to engage religious groups

Hamid 10 (Shadi, Director of Research – Brookings Doha Center and Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “The Islamist Response to Repression: Are Mainstream Islamist Groups Radicalizing?”, Brookings Doha Center Policy Briefing, August, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/ 2010/0809_islamist_groups_hamid/0809_islamist_groups_hamid.pdf)

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY

Islamist leaders often speak of an “American

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-hoc meetings lacking a substantive agenda. 3

A firm Presidential mandate to engage the MB broadens diplomatic authority to implement IRF

Farr 6 (Thomas, Former Director –

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-of-religious-freedom--35)

Without more attention to such issues, Iraq

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embrace a new religious realism in foreign affairs.

Process matters --- the State Department must be overridden to end low-level reticence and boost overall leadership on IRF

Farr 11 (Thomas F., Director – Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs, “U.S. Foreign Policy and International Religious Expression”, CQ Congressional Testimony, 6-3, Lexis)

Fortunately the amendments in HR 1856 address these

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chiefs of mission before they assume their duties.

U.S. IRF credibility solves conflict in every hotspot --- goes nuclear

Farr 9 (Thomas F., Professor of Religion and International Affairs – Georgetown's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and Director – Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs, “The Widow's Torment: International Religious Freedom and American National Security in the 21st Century”, Drake Law Review, Summer, 57 Drake L. Rev. 851, Lexis)

However, an exclusively humanitarian view of religious

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Islamist terrorism and a nuclear weapons capability. 35

Escalates to global war --- religion’s key

Adams 00 (Nathan A. IV, Associate – Church-State Practice Group of Rothgerber, Johnson & Lyons LLP, Ph.D. in International Political Economy – University of Florida, and JD – University of Texas School of Law, “A Human Rights Imperative: Extending Religious Liberty Beyond the Border”, Cornell International Law Journal, 33 Cornell Int'l L.J. 1, Lexis)

III. Additional Reasons for Promoting Religious Tolerance

Additional reasons exist for reassessing the treatment of

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) to enable individuals to be truly human.

A. Multipolar, Civilizational Politics

In the post-Cold War era,

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al-Islam or Dar al-Harb.

It is not surprising, therefore, that

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Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. 222

[*34]  Muslims and Christians also confront

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and fundamentalist Muslims in Tajikistan and Chechnya. 225

Only religious tolerance, combined with balance of

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international order based on the sovereign state." 226

Extinction

Harris 5 (Sam, Ph.D

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of Reason, p. 25-26)

Our world is fast succumbing to the activities

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found a recipe for the fall of civilization.

IRF’s key to Russian democracy

Farr 9 (Thomas F., Director – Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs, and Dennis R. Hoover, “The Future of U.S. International Religious Freedom Policy: Recommendations for the Obama Administration”, https://www.globalengage.org/attachments/829_IRFpolicyreport_final_lowres.pdf)

A contrary example shows how the absence of

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Russia’s regression to authoritarianism and aggressive foreign policies.

Failure of democracy in Russia will cause global nuclear war

Muravchik 1 (Joshua Muravchik, “Democracy

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, Date Accessed 7/29/2006)

That this momentum has slackened somewhat since its

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prospects for democracy may be still more remote.

U.S. IRF cred is key to Iraqi stability

Farr 8 (Thomas F., Professor of Religion and International Affairs – Georgetown's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and Director – Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs, “Diplomacy in an Age of Faith”, Catholic Education Resource Center, http://www.catholiceducation.org/articles/civilization/cc0314.htm)

The problem is most urgent in the greater

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long term to religious freedom and durable democracy.

Iraq's quasi-liberal constitution and elections have

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educated and where he now has many followers.

Impact’s global war

Corsi 7 (Jerome, "War with Iran is imminent," Phd in Poly Sci @ Harvard, author, + staff reporter @ World Net Daily, 1-8, http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=53669)

If a broader war breaks out in Iraq

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much as World Wars I and II began.

U.S. IRF cred’s key to stability in Belarus

Grieboski 11 (Joseph K., Founder and Chair – The Institute on Religion and Public Policy, “U.S. Foreign Policy and International Religious Expression”, CQ Congressional Testimony, 6-3, Lexis)

Rejection of religious freedom also places a prodigious

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an Act and religious liberty as an issue.

It’s on the brink --- U.S.’s key

IRPP 11 (Institute on Religion & Public Policy, “Belarus: 2011 The Institute Country Conditions Report”, 7-27, http://religionandpolicy.org/cms/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=7013&Itemid=265)

(1) The state of religious freedom

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involvement creates a dire situation for religious minorities.

Belarussian instability escalates --- spills over to Poland --- draws in the U.S., Russia, and goes nuclear --- and if it doesn’t, shatters NATO guarantees

Carpenter 97 (Ted Galen, Vice President for Defense Policy – Cato Institute and Andrew Stone, “NATO Expansion Flashpoint No. 1: The Border between Poland and Belarus”, Cato Institute Foreign Policy Briefing No. 44, 9-16, http://www.cato.org/pubs/fpbriefs/fpb044.pdf)

The Powder Keg on the Polish-Belarusian Border

Admitting Poland to NATO involves two related dangers

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to the security interests of the American people.

Global nuclear war

Snegirev 99 (Vladimir, Editor – Metro, What The Papers Say, 6-25, Lexis)

But how can we respond? Our defense

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promoted by the internal situation in our country.

NATO commitments to Poland solve global conflict --- especially in Taiwan

Mitchell 10 (A. Wess, President – Center for European Policy Analysis, and Robert Kron, Research Associate – CEPA, “NATO Must Reassure Nervous Allies”, RealClearWorld, 3-1, http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/ 2010/03/01/nato_must_reassure_nervous_allies_98828.html?utm_source=emailalerts&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Russia)

Second, insecure allies are less likely to

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will alleviate concerns of a rising Russian threat.

Global nuclear war

Hunkovic 9 (Lee J, American Military

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)

A war between China, Taiwan and the

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countries will not be considered in this study.

U.S. draw-in collapses readiness and invites global aggression

Spencer 00 (Jack, Policy Analyst – Heritage Foundation, “The Facts About Military Readiness”, 9-15, http://www.heritage.org/Research/MissileDefense/BG1394.cfm)

Military readiness is vital because declines in America's

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of vital national interest, thereby preserving peace.

Readiness Defined. Readiness measures the ability of

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and/or logistics to accomplish its mission.

There is evidence of a widespread lack of

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In other words, they are not ready.

Extinction

Barnett 11 (Thomas P.M., Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in Warfare Analysis – U.S. Naval War College, Former Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation – Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads”, World Politics Review, 3-7, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads)

It is worth first examining the larger picture

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the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.

Contention 2 --- Muslim Brotherhood

They won and will be radical

Maginnis 12-8 (Robert, Retired Army lieutenant colonel and National Security and Foreign Affairs Analyst for Radio and Television, “Obama in for a Radical Change as Islamist Egypt Emerges”, Human Events, 2011, http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=48017)

It is almost certain America’s ally Egypt will

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turn Egypt into another terrorist haven like Pakistan.

Clinton reached out, but Obama’s been silent on democracy --- causes anti-American hostility

Diehl 12-11 (Jackson, Deputy Editorial Page Editor – WP and Winner –  Inter-American Press Association Award for Interpretive Journalism and Bob Considine Award of the Overseas Press Association, “Obama is Lagging on Egypt”, Washington Post, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/obama-lagging-on-the-arab-spring/2011/12/08/gIQApQzCoO_story.htm l)

Early on the morning of Nov. 25

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, it needs to come from the president.

This shatters diplomacy --- absence of clear democratic investment means only negative signals are sent

Satloff 11 (Dr. Robert, Executive Director and Howard P. Berkowitz Chair in U.S. Middle East Policy – Washington Institute for Near East Policy, “Egypt, U.S. Strategy, and Engaging the Muslim Brotherhood”, Washington Institute Policy Alert, 6-30, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1662)

Secretary of State Clinton confirmed today that the

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to the MB as fumbling in the dark.

New, openly available aid’s necessary for U.S. leverage

Husain 12-12 (Ed, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies – Council on Foreign Relations, “Was Senator Kerry right to meet with the Muslim Brotherhood?”, Global Public Square – CNN Blog, 2011, http://globalpublicsquare .blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/12/was-senator-kerry-right-to-meet-with-the-muslim-brotherhood/)

Meeting only with secular Egyptian leaders such as

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political gains for the short to medium term.

However unpalatable, and whatever the disagreements and

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can result in greater influence over Hamas terrorism).

As chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee

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, he sets a new and brave precedent.

First, the emphasis on Egyptian economic regeneration

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the United States can and must help Egypt.

Second, the Muslim Brotherhood leaders renewed their

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the business of nullifying the Camp David Accords.

Third, this meeting and further collaboration with

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image of the United States in Arab countries.

Fourth, the Muslim Brotherhood is on an

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properly, will lead to trust and cooperation.

I wrote about the vital need to engage

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It is reassuring that this interaction is underway.

As the United States builds credibility with Islamists

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interact with all willing political actors in Egypt.

It must be clear and from Obama

Schenker 11-21 (David, Aufzien Fellow and Director of the Program on Arab Politics – Washington Institute, and Eric Trager, Weiner Fellow and Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science – University of Pennsylvania, “Egypt's Revolution Continues”, Washington Institute PolicyWatch #1874, 2011, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/ templateC05.php?CID=3425)

As a new round of violence erupts in

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little sway with any of these key constituencies.

Strong demand for U.S. technical assistance --- opens up lines of communication

Slavin 11 (Barbara, Senior Fellow – Atlantic Council, Senior Diplomatic Correspondent – USA Today, and Assistant Managing Editor for World and National Security – Washington Times, “U.S. "Democracy" Advisors Suddenly in Demand”, Inter-Press Service, 4-14, http://ipsnews.net/wap/news.asp?idnews=55266)

For years, U.S. officials

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parties formed by the Muslim Brothers in Egypt.

That moderates the MB

Duss 11 (Matthew, Policy Analyst and Director of Middle East Progress – Center for American Progress and MA in Middle East Studies – University of Washington, “Are We Serious About A Democratic Egypt?”, ThinkProgress Security, 2-4, http://thinkprogress.org/security/2011/02/04/176481/are-we-serious-about-a-democratic-egypt/)

I agree that U.S. has

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We should start getting used to that idea.

MB control causes social repression --- collapses the economy and causes refugee flows that destabilize Europe

Ali 11 (Ayaan Hirsi, Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute, “Will the Muslim Brotherhood Succeed

Where Osama Failed?”, New Perspectives Quarterly,

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), Summer, p. 21-22)

AT   H O M E | In order

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. But the doctrine of jihad lives on.

Egypt will melt down into state collapse

Coleman 11 (Isabel, Senior Fellow for

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)

Egypt in particular is staggering economically, and

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a dent in its high level of unemployment.

Escalates to global conflict

Copley 11 (Gregory O., Editor – Global Information System and Defense & Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy, “Strategic Ramifications of the Egyptian Crisis”, World Tribune, 2-1, http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/ WTARC/2011/me_egypt0088_02_01.asp)

In the Preface to the Defense & Foreign

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the re-emergence of a charismatic leader.

Mass refugee influxes cause European hyper-nationalism

Greenblatt 11

(Alan, NPR, “Arab Refugees Finding Harsh Welcome In Europe,” 3-18-11, http://www.scpr.org/news/2011/03/18/25092/arab-refugees-finding-harsh-welcome-in-europe/)

Thousands are fleeing across the Mediterranean from North Africa, seeking asylum from Arab world conflicts in Italy and elsewhere. Muslim immigration is already a charged issue in Europe and some refugees are being turned away. Refugees fleeing the upheaval in North Africa are running into a different sort of political conflict in Europe. Since mid-January, more than 10,000 refugees from countries such as Tunisia and Libya have arrived at the Italian island of Lampedusa. Marine Le Pen, who heads France's far-right National Front Party and is a leading contender in next year's presidential election in France, appeared on the island on Monday to let them know they aren't welcome. Le Pen and other far-right politicians have gained traction recently — in large part by raising concerns about immigration. This has put Europe's leaders into a difficult position. The leaders have expressed support for the democratic aspirations that have led to unrest throughout the Muslim world — and they don't want to be insensitive to the plight of refugees fleeing repression and violence. On the other hand, they recognize that a flood of refugees would add to prevailing unease about the difficulties of integrating immigrants, especially Muslims. "While on the one hand, they support the transformation that is now going on in Africa, this short-term anti-immigrant wave that is washing over Europe is so strong," says Heather Conley, director of the Europe program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "This is about getting to the next election." 'Europe Is Being Invaded' In recent years, far-right parties in France, the Netherlands and Sweden have gained traction by complaining that Muslim immigrants are an economic drain and that they don't fit in culturally with the West. According to the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, the number of Muslims in Europe jumped from 29.6 million in 1990 to 44.1 million in 2010 — and are projected to reach 58 million by 2030. More than half of North Africa's migrants are in Europe, according to the World Bank. In three European countries — Belgium, Portugal and France — more than half the nation's immigrants from developing countries hail from Africa, according to the OECD. "Europe is being invaded," Italian Interior Minister Roberto Maroni complained last week, referring to the current exodus from North Africa. Last year, a book by Thilo Sarrazin arguing that immigrants are destroying Germany was an enormous best-seller, triggering a national debate. Both German Chancellor Angela Merkel and, more recently, British Prime Minister David Cameron have said that multiculturalism and immigrant integration have failed in their countries. Meanwhile, Le Pen says that European navies "should go as close as possible to the coasts from where the clandestine boats departed to send them back." And something like that may be starting to happen. On Tuesday, Italy refused a ferry carrying 1,800 passengers — most of them Moroccans who had fled Libya — entry into its waters. Skeptics About Assimilation Countries such as Germany actually spend far more than the U.S. government on programs to help immigrants integrate into society, notes Tamar Jacoby, president of ImmigrationWorks USA, a coalition of business groups that rely on immigrant labor. But, Jacoby says, Europeans have a harder time than Americans in believing that immigrants or even their children can assimilate and become true members of their society. "They don't have the history we have of dealing with it, and hyphenated identities," she says. Nations such as the Netherlands and Germany ask questions on their citizenship tests to determine whether immigrants accept homosexuality and gender equality. And many Europeans also are concerned, given pinched finances on the Continent, about whether they can afford to let in more immigrants. Once immigrants arrive, they are often entitled to extensive social benefits. "Europeans, especially Germans, do feel that they need to be sensitive to refugees," says Jacoby, who recently published a Foreign Affairs article about immigration in Germany. "But [the flow coming up from North Africa] could become too many refugees for many people."

They’ll scapegoat refugees – causing geopolitical jockeying that goes nuclear

Karlin 9

Anatoly Karlin is a San Francisco based independent

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/ssr10-europe-black-continent/.

However, conservatives who fear the coming of

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deterrence power of nuclear weapons will fall dramatically.

Extinction

Elliot 7 (Jeffrey M., North Carolina

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Security Dictionary, p. 19-20)

Escalation of War (15)

Increasing, enlarging, or intensifying the nature

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, 20; TOTAL. WAR. 32.

MB control of Egypt leads to war with Israel

Ali 11

(Ayaan Hirsi, Ayaan Hirsi, Fellow – American Enterprise Institute and Founder – AHA Foundation, “Ayaan Hirsi Ali: Will Muslim Brotherhood succeed where Osama bin Laden failed?,” 5-6-11, http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Global-Viewpoint/2011/0506/Ayaan-Hirsi-Ali-Will-Muslim-Brotherhood-succeed-where-Osama-bin-Laden-failed)

In order to “build the Muslim state” (Umma), relations will improve in the short term between Hamas, Iran’s regime, Hezbollah and Turkey. Money will be spent on empowering other Islamist organizations, creating alliances in the region, the ultimate goal of which will be, of course, to eliminate Israel. The peace treaty with Israel will either be gradually eroded or Israel will be provoked into war. A Muslim Brotherhood government will also work within the Organization of the Islamic Conference to weaken leaders and regimes of member states that do not share the Islamist vision. Saudi Arabia vs. Egypt The interesting thing to watch carefully will be the new Egypt’s relations with Saudi Arabia. For the West, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is a place that holds the world’s largest oil reserves. For the Islamists who dream of a Muslim caliphate, Saudi Arabia is the location of the two Holy Shrines of Islam. The Muslim Brotherhood and its allies will work to take control of the Hijaz (Mecca and Medina); if they realize this dream, the oil will be simply a bonus. The Muslim Brotherhood sees the Saudi monarchy as decadent, hypocritical and traitors of Islam. In the coming months we shall see a dance of power as the House of Saud and the Brotherhood seek to outmaneuver one other. The prospects, in short, of an Egyptian government dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood are as alarming as the prospect of a French government dominated by the Jacobins in the early 1790s. Repression at home will cause human rights violations, economic crisis and an exodus of refugees, beginning with those who have money and a reasonable level of education, deepening Egypt’s poverty and destabilizing the region and perhaps even Europe. Growing conflict with Israel could lead to war.

Their “no motivation” ev assumes moderation—a radicalized MB will attack Israel

Rubin 11

(Barry, Professor – Interdisciplinary Center (

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)

The alliance of the Muslim Brotherhood with even

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apologists to claim that now it's really moderate.

Even if the MB doesn’t cancel the peace treaty, they’ll weaken it—causes Israel to deploy troops

Dreazen 11

(Yochi J., senior correspondent for National Journal Group covering military affairs and national security, “Mubarak’s Exit Raises Tough Questions for U.S., Israel,” 2-1-11, http://www.nationaljournal.com/member/daily/mubarak-s-exit-raises-tough-questions-for-u-s-israel-20110201)

What happens to Egypt’s peace deal with Israel? Egypt’s decades-long peace agreement with Israel is deeply unpopular with many Egyptians, and Israeli officials fear that virtually any leader who follows Mubarak will seek to either weaken or entirely abrogate it. The Muslim Brotherhood, for instance, maintains close ties to Hamas and has made no secret of its desire to back out of the accords and take a much tougher stance towards the Jewish state. Israeli leaders like Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu never enjoyed warm personal relationships with Mubarak, but they trusted his commitment to the Camp David accords and saw him as a valuable regional ally. That, in turn, allowed generations of Israeli policymakers to design their national security strategies around the belief that Israel would never again face an armed threat from Egypt, which possesses—thanks to decades of generous American aid—the region’s second-strongest military. But Egypt’s next rulers, particularly if they come from the Muslim Brotherhood, could gradually back out of those accords, forcing Israel to ramp up its defense spending and deploy significant numbers of troops to its southern border for the first time since the early 1980s.

The army doesn’t check – The MB will persuade the military to sever ties with Israel

Doran 11

(Michael Scott, Assistant Professor of Near

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June 2011, 90(3), Ebsco)

Faced with the accountability of the democratic process

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Brotherhood and like-minded groups in Egypt.

Extinction

Konstantinov 11

(Mihail, Full Professor in Mathematics with the University of Architecture, Civil Engineering and Geodesy (UACEG), Bulgaria, “Nuclear Middle East”, 2-12-11, http://www.europost.bg/article?id=1005)

But can­cel­ing the trea­ty has anoth­er name,

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and gold price fluc­tu­a­tions on the glob­al mar­kets.