Contention One – Problems in the Status Quo

First - There is a bunch of demand for US technical assistance now.
Slavin 11 (Barbara, Senior Fellow – Atlantic Council, Senior Diplomatic Correspondent – USA Today, and Assistant Managing Editor for World and National Security – Washington Times, “U.S. "Democracy" Advisors Suddenly in Demand”, Inter-Press Service, 4-14, http://ipsnews.net/wap/news.asp?idnews=55266)
“Carpenter, now with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy → compete openly for political support.”

However, the US presently refuses such assistance to the Muslim Brotherhood
Slavin 11 (Barbara, Senior Fellow – Atlantic Council, Senior Diplomatic Correspondent – USA Today, and Assistant Managing Editor for World and National Security – Washington Times, “U.S. "Democracy" Advisors Suddenly in Demand”, Inter-Press Service, 4-14, http://ipsnews.net/wap/news.asp?idnews=55266)
Garrett said that U.S. aid provides training for multiple groups → Egyptian political activists and now the democratic universe has vastly expanded."

Prohibitions of this sort are just sorta rude – they also hurt cooperation efforts
Kull ‘11
Steven Kull is director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes and author of the recently released book, Feeling Betrayed: The Roots of Muslim Anger at America. “Why Muslims are still mad at America” – A CNN Global Public Square Editorial – September 5th, 2011 – http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/05/why-muslims-are-still-mad-at-america/
A particularly frustrating feature → show that Muslims do not divide so neatly.

The epistemological basis for this claim is diverse
Kull ‘11
Steven Kull is director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes and author of the recently released book, Feeling Betrayed: The Roots of Muslim Anger at America. “Why Muslims are still mad at America” – A CNN Global Public Square Editorial – September 5th, 2011 – http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/05/why-muslims-are-still-mad-at-america/
Trying to understand Muslims’ feelings → fundamental: their perception that America seeks to undermine Islam - a perception held by overwhelming majorities.

As it relates to perception, there’s a balancing act. Ending aid wouldn’t boost US coop. Offering to all – not some – is the best option.
Guéhenno 11 (Jean-Marie, Nonresident Senior Fellow – Brookings Institution, “The Arab Spring is 2011, Not 1989”, New York Times, 4-21, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/22/opinion/22iht-edguehenno22.html)
Bringing the Muslim Brotherhood and related organizations → balance between engagement and restraint will be the policy challenge of this new phase. 

If parties would like to talk with the US about technical assistance, we shouldn’t block them. The status quo and blanket rejections of assistance don’t accomplish this.
Hamid 10 (Shadi, Director of Research – Brookings Doha Center and Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “The Islamist Response to Repression: Are Mainstream Islamist Groups Radicalizing?”, Brookings Doha Center Policy Briefing, August, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/ 2010/0809_islamist_groups_hamid/0809_islamist_groups_hamid.pdf)
With both Egypt and Jordan holding much-anticipated → these are ad-hoc meetings lacking a substantive agenda. 3

Egypt is an especially important signal – this also proves decreasing support hampers US coop efforts
Elshinnawi 10 (Mohamed, Foreign Affairs Writer – VOA, “Egypt Key to Proving Obama's Commitment to Middle East Democracy”, Voice of America News, 6-30, http://www.voanews.com/english/news/special-reports/american-life/Egypt-Key-to-Proving-Obamas-Commitment-to-Middle-East-Democracy.html)
There has been widespread public agreement in the Middle East that President Obama said many of the right things in his Cairo address. Experts in Washington agree → from this challenge and sort of allow the existing regime to designate its own successor." 

Credible US coop with the Muslim World is vital to address climate change
AHMED ‘6
AKBAR S. AHMED, IBN KHALDUN CHAIR OF ISLAMIC STUDIES, SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL SERVICE, AMERICAN UNIVERSITY, WASHINGTON, DC – ISLAM AND THE WEST: SEARCHING FOR COMMON GROUND HEARING BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS UNITED STATES SENATE ONE HUNDRED NINTH CONGRESS JULY 18, 2006 – http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:Rin7IuH-o0gJ:ftp.resource.org/gpo.gov/hearings/109s/36963.txt+%22crises+like+global+warming,+poverty,+the+population+explosion%22&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a
Let us remind ourselves why relations → the sole superpower and leader of the world.

Warming causes huge death tolls
Lea ‘7
(Michael – political correspondent for The Sun – he is internally quoting the IPCC – April 7th http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article24343.ece)

BILLIONS face death → “It is a global responsibility.” 

Offering the option of assistance to all ends the game of “picking winners and losers”.
Strasser 11 (Max, Cairo-Based Editor – Foreign Policy Magazine, “Can USAID Be a Force For Good In Egypt?”, The Nation, 7-22, http://www.thenation.com/article/162239/can-usaid-be-force-good-egypt)
As USAID and its American→ ” rather than any individual actors.

Next, is Contention Two:

First – The curriculum is at its best when it starts with fiated and concrete state-based political action
Gitlin ‘5
Todd Gitlin formerly served as professor of sociology and director of the mass communications program at the University of California, Berkeley, and then a professor of culture, journalism and sociology at New York University. He is now a professor of journalism and sociology and chair of the Ph.D. program in Communications at Columbia University. He was a long-time political activist( from the Left). From the Book: The Intellectuals and the Flag – 2005 – available via CIAO Books – date accessed 7/17/10 – http://www.ciaonet.org.proxy2.cl.msu.edu/book/git01/git01_04.pdf
Weak thinking on the American left → from the world where most people live. 

Other forms of “politics” are theoretically possible – but this card frames pedagogical disad to those “anti-political” starting points. We’ll also epistemologically indict critical theorists.
Chandler ‘7
(David Chandler is Professor of International Relations at the Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Westminster –
“The Attraction of Post-Territorial Politics: Ethics and Activism in the International Sphere” – Inaugural Lecture – May – available at: http://www.davidchandler.org/pdf/short_articles/Inaugural%20lecture.pdf)
However, politics is no less important → to understand and engage with the world.  

Such apathy dooms their project, threatens the planet, and cedes politics to the Right.
Boggs ’97
(CARL BOGGS – Professor and Ph.D. Political Science, National University, Los Angeles  Theory and Society 26: 741-780)
The false sense of empowerment that comes → that had vanished from civil society.75  

They might say “politics is screwed-up now”. But, if the World’s too “conservative” now it’s because our form of political engagement is TOO THIN. It’s linear.
Chandler ‘9
David Chandler is Professor of International Relations at the Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Westminster – 'The Global Ideology: Rethinking the Politics of the "Global Turn" in IR', International Relations, Vol. 23, No. 4 (2009), pp. 530-547.
http://www.davidchandler.org/pdf/journal_articles/Journal%20of%20Int%20Rels%20-%20Global%20Ideology%20published.pdf
While the Cold War discipline of international → nature of collective political engagement. 

Policy role-play doesn’t indoctrinate or get stale – makes best Real World education.
Joyner ‘99
(Christopher C., Professor of International Law at Georgetown, “Teaching International Law”, 5 Ilsa. J. Int’l & Comp. L. 377, Lexis)
USE OF THE debate can be an effective → of policy analysis, POLITICAL CRITIQUE, AND LEGAL DEFENSE.

The MB is gaining power in Egypt
Urban 11 (Mark, Diplomatic and Defence Editor – Newsnight (BBC), “Egypt's Islamists Mobilising Mass Support”, BBC News World, 8-3, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-14396488)

Since Friday a new factor has also entered
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military rulers portrayed them as for so long.

They’re stronger than ever because of U.S. isolation - “picking winners” creates a perception of hostility that’s the basis of recruiting and radicalism
Duss 11 (Matthew, Policy Analyst and Director of Middle East Progress – Center for American Progress and MA in Middle East Studies – University of Washington, “Recognizing Reality in the Middle East”, Center for American Progress Report, 7-1, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/07/middle_east_reality.html)

It appears the U.S. government
AND
Clinton’s comments were a step in that direction.

U.S. assistance gives secular groups the resources and skills necessary to compete and prevent MB control
Ali 11 (Ayaan Hirsi, Fellow – American Enterprise Institute and Founder – AHA Foundation, “Get Ready for the Muslim Brotherhood”, New York Times, 2-3, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/04/opinion/04iht-edali04.html?page wanted=all)

Those two experiences gave me some insights that
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one tyranny aside could easily succumb to another.

Strong demand exists for U.S. technical assistance - including the MB defuses anti-American resistance
Slavin 11 (Barbara, Senior Fellow – Atlantic Council, Senior Diplomatic Correspondent – USA Today, and Assistant Managing Editor for World and National Security – Washington Times, “U.S. "Democracy" Advisors Suddenly in Demand”, Inter-Press Service, 4-14, http://ipsnews.net/wap/news.asp?idnews=55266)

For years, U.S. officials
AND
parties formed by the Muslim Brothers in Egypt.

Making it openly available without restriction enables an effective democratic transition
Strasser 11 (Max, Cairo-Based
AND
-be-force-good-egypt)

In Egypt, as in much of the
AND
post-Mubarak, pre-election Egypt.

A consistent mandate of open access to U.S. democracy aid is critical to shift on-the-ground policy to accommodate the Brotherhood
Hamid 10 (Shadi, Director of Research – Brookings Doha Center and Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “The Islamist Response to Repression: Are Mainstream Islamist Groups Radicalizing?”, Brookings Doha Center Policy Briefing, August, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/ 2010/0809_islamist_groups_hamid/0809_islamist_groups_hamid.pdf)

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
Islamist leaders often speak of an “American
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-hoc meetings lacking a substantive agenda. 3

Even if the Brotherhood takes control, assistance now gives the U.S. leverage to moderate its behavior
Duss 11 (Matthew, Policy Analyst and Director of Middle East Progress – Center for American Progress and MA in Middle East Studies – University of Washington, “Are We Serious About A Democratic Egypt?”, ThinkProgress Security, 2-4, http://thinkprogress.org/security/2011/02/04/176481/are-we-serious-about-a-democratic-egypt/)

I agree that U.S. has
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We should start getting used to that idea.

Engagement undermines MB radicalism. Exclusion drives violent elements underground.
al-Anani 10 (Khalil, Visiting Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy – Brookings Institution and Assistant to the Managing Editor – al-Siyassa al Dawliya (Cairo Newspaper), “Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood: Opposite Effects”, Ikkwan Web, 3-1, http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=23446)

Suppression may tax the Muslim Brotherhood organizationally but
AND
throw it into ideological confusion and organizational disarray.
The Muslim Brotherhood, like most closed organizations
AND
the Turkish Prosperity Party led by Nijmeddin Erbakan.
The generation gap in the Muslim Brotherhood would
AND
being there is nowhere for them to go.
If the regime can not tolerate the Muslim
AND
least then they would fall under the law.
Let me make three observations that relate to
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carve up the political spoils with the regime.
The Muslim Brotherhood as a legitimate political faction
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on the Muslim Brotherhood will drive it underground.

Un-moderated MB control causes global nuclear war
Rose 11 (Taylor, International Relations and Strategic Intelligence – Liberty University, “The Islamic Revolution Part II”, Youth for Western Civilization, 2-1, http://www.westernyouth.org/articles/the-islamic-revolution-part-ii/)

The riots in Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria
AND
allowing the further global advancement of her enemies.

Exclusion fosters radicalism and violence that destabilizes the Middle East
Philpott 11 (Daniel, Associate Professor of Political Science and Peace Studies – University of Notre Dame, Timothy Shah, Associate Director of the Religious Freedom Project – Georgetown University's Berkley Center for Religion, Peace & World Affairs, and Monica Duffy Toft, Professor of Public Policy – Harvard University and Director – Initiative on Religion in International Affairs, “The Dangers of Secularism in the Middle East”, The Christian Science Monitor, 8-11, Lexis)

Since the Arab Spring began last December,
AND
an enemy, of American interests and ideals.

That goes nuclear and draws in great powers
Gold 7 (Thomas J., Masters in
AND
Future Events, p. 53-55)

If the political, ethnic, and military
AND
or global nuclear war is now a possibility. 

Egypt is hemorrhaging FDI
Sharp 11 (Jeremy M., Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs – CRS, “Egypt in Transition”, Congressional Research Service Report, 6-17, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33003.pdf)

Egypt After Mubarak: New Faces, Old Problems
Egypt’s “January 25 Revolution” has not …. several deadly Coptic-Muslim clashes since February 11.

New investments are on hold - officers are closely watching for signals about democracy - otherwise, they’ll pull out
Shapiro 11 (Dr. Robert J., Chair of the Globalization Initiative – New Democratic Network, Ph.D. and MA – Harvard Univeristy, M.Sc. – London School of Economics, “The Real Economic Implications of the Uprising in Egypt”, 2-9, http://ndn.org/blog/2011/02/real-economic-implications-uprising-egypt)

The real economic impact here threatens …. for a better life that have fueled the uprising. 

Democracy assistance attracts beneficial forms of FDI and discourages corporate exploitation
Kapfer 7 (Dr. Steve, Ph.D. – Political Science, et al., “If You Build It, Will They Come? Foreign Aid’s Effects on Foreign Direct Investment”, 4-14, http://irtheoryandpractice.wm.edu/publications/build_it.pdf)

Section 6:  Implications and Conclusion
The ability to sort and test loans by category and type …. to aid allocated for health and education as well as infrastructure.  

U.S. assistance causes “follow the flag” effects that spur FDI inflows
Biglaiser 5 (Glen, Professor of Political Science – Texas Tech University, and Karl DeRouen, Jr., Professor of Political Science – University of Alabama, “Security, Property Rights, and US Foreign Direct Investment”, 11-21, http://nathanjensen.wustl.edu/me/files/WP8.pdf)
Since the end of the cold war, the effects of …. underpin the security-investment nexus.

The signal’s critical - aid must be clear and unconditional to indicate trust and affect investor psychology
Garriga 11 (Ana Carolina, Professor of Political Studies –  Centro de Investigacion y Docencia Economicas (Mexico) and Brian J. Phillips, Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science – University of Pittsburgh, “Foreign Aid and Investment in Post-Conflict Societies”, http://www.cide.edu/publicaciones/status/dts/DTEP%20227.pdf)

The impact of foreign aid on FDI
There is a less explored channel through which aid …. signaling effect and attract FDI.

FDI’s critical to maintain Egyptian economic reforms
Schenker 11 (David, Senior Fellow in Arab Politics – Washington Institute for Near East Policy, “Egypt and the Arab Fall”, Los Angeles Times, 6-1, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jun/01/opinion/la-oe-schenker-egypt-20110601)

Today in Egypt, there is an environment of …that "Islam is the solution."

Specifically - Egypt will bail on subsidy reforms
Schenker 11 (David, Fellow and Director of the Program on Arab Politics – Washington Institute and Former Levant Country Director – Secretary of Defense, “Egypt’s Enduring ChallengesPolicy Recommendations”, The Cutting Edge, 7-25, http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=52459)

Leadership changes in Egypt have been … U.S.-Egyptian bilateral ties.

That causes Nile water shortages
GWI 10 (Global Water Intelligence, “The Key to Safeguarding the Nile’s Future”, 11(11), November, http://www.globalwaterintel.com/archive/11/11/general/key-safeguarding-niles-future.html)

Egypt is thinking of offering TSE sales …. won’t see a change in demand.”

Escalates to conflict with Sudan and Ethiopia
Brown 11 (Lester R., President – Earth Policy Institute, “When the Nile Runs Dry”, Plan B Updates, 6-7, http://www.earth-policy.org/plan_b_updates/2011/update97)

A new scramble for Africa is under way. As …could turn deadly.

Goes global and draws in great powers
Glick 7 (Caroline, Senior Middle East Fellow – Center for Security Policy, “Condi’s African Holiday”, 12-12, http://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/home.aspx?sid=56&categoryid=56&subcategoryid=90&newsid=11568)

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice …. all countries of the region.

Goes nuclear - generic defense doesn’t apply
NASCA 4 (National Association for Scientific and Cultural Appreciation, “Water Shortages – Only a Matter of Time”, http://www.nasca.org.uk/Strange_relics_/water/water.html)

Water is one of the prime essentials for life …. which there will be no obvious answer. 

U.S. FDI to Egypt is critical to job growth and leadership on clean tech
Peterson 10 (Bertil, Editor and Chief of Publications – American Chamber of Commerce Egypt, “Egypt as a Regional Hub for Value-Added Production, Services, and Export”, Executive Summary, http://www.amcham.org .eg/egypttradehub/EXECUTIVESUMMARY.asp)

AmCham Egypt has been at the forefront of …. within the new strategic partnership.

Clean tech leadership solves extinction
Klarevas 9 (Louis, Professor at the Center for Global Affairs – New York University, “Securing American Primacy While Tackling Climate Change: Toward a National Strategy of Greengemony”, Huffington Post, 12-15, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/louis-klarevas/securing-american-primacy_b_393223.html)

By not addressing climate change more …. to keep potential foes in check.

Job growth stops protectionism
El-Erian 9 (Mohamed, chief executive and co-chief investment officer of Pimco, American jobs data are worse than we think, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1e06911c-6719-11de-925f-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1RAPfeGsO)

This conventional wisdom is valid most, but … restoring economic stability.

Extinction
Pazner 8 (Michael J., Faculty – New York Institute of Finance, Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse, p. 137-138)

The rise in isolationism and protectionism will …. beginnings of a new world war. 

Plan - GSU Round 2 - Aff vs Louisville

The United States Federal Government should lift restrictions precluding direct technical services for political organization in Egypt.

Plan - GSU Later Prelims

The United States Federal Government should provide substantial technical assistance for political organization in Egypt.

Plan - GSU Octos

The United States Federal Government should provide substantial technical consultancy for political organization in the nation referenced in United States Code Title twenty-two Chapter forty-nine Subchapter one number three-thousand four-hundred and three.

Plan - KY RR 2 - Aff vs Gonzaga KM

The United States Federal Government should substantially increase technical consulting for political organization in Egypt.

Plan - KY RR 4 - Aff vs Gtown AM

The United States Federal Government should provide substantial political training for legally registered nonviolent parties in Egypt.

Plan - KY RR 6 - Aff vs Wake BC

The United States Federal Government should provide a substantial increase in technical training for political organization in Egypt, disbursed evenly to parties, groups, and movements in the country. 

Plan - KY RR 9 - Aff vs Michigan AL

The United States Federal Government should provide substantial technical services, without religious-based restriction, for political organization in Egypt. 

Plan - Kentucky Round 6 - Aff vs Cal HP

The United States Federal Government should provide substantial political party training for legally registered nonviolent parties in Egypt.

Plan - Kentucky Round 8 - Aff vs NU BM

The United States Federal Government should provide substantial technical services for organization of nonviolent parties in Egypt.

Plan - Kentucky Octas - Aff vs Kansas KK

The United States Federal Government should provide substantial technical services, without religious-based restriction, for political organization of nonviolent parties in Egypt.

Plan - Harvard Round 4 - Aff vs Michigan DP

The United States Federal Government should supply substantial programs for political party organization in Egypt. 

Plan - Harvard Round 6 - Aff vs Kansas KK

The United States Federal Government should substantially increase the provision of organizational programming for nonviolent political parties in Egypt. 

Plan - Harvard Round 8 - Aff vs Liberty GW

The United States Federal Government should supply substantial training without religious-based restriction for political party development in Egypt. 

Plan - Harvard Finals - Aff vs Northwestern BK

The United States Federal Government should provide substantial political party training for Egypt through joint programming with the Republic of India.

Plan - Wake Round 6 - Aff vs Northwestern BK

The United States Federal Government should provide a substantial increase in technical training for political organization in Egypt through official Egyptian channels.

A2: Alt Causes

(  ) Your Alt causes are snapshot – their import will drop, our internal link is now key
Kull 9-5
2011, Steven Kull is director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes and author of the recently released book, Feeling Betrayed: The Roots of Muslim Anger at America. “Why Muslims are still mad at America” – A CNN Global Public Square Editorial – September 5th, 2011 – http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/05/why-muslims-are-still-mad-at-america/

A particularly frustrating feature of the U.S.
AND
 their aspirations, they grow resolutely hostile.

Indonesia Add-On – 2AC

U.S. engagement tempers Islamic radicalism in Indonesia
Khan 2 (M.A. Muqtedar, Professor of Political Science – Adrian College, “Nice But Tough: A Framework for U.S. Foreign Policy in the Muslim World”, Brown Journal of World Affairs, IX(1), Spring, p. 356-359)

In the past, Washington has often perceived
AND
Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Sudan.

That’s key to sustain ASEAN
Richardson 1 (Michael, “Indonesia's Growing Instability Threatens to Undermine Neighbors : ASEAN Members Fear for Unity”, New York Times, 7-23, http://www.nytimes.com/2001/07/23/news/23iht-asean_ed3_.html)

As the Association of South East Asian Nations
AND
entrée to Islamic radicalism and possibly international terrorism."

Extinction
Rajaratnam 92 (S., Former Deputy Prime Minister – Singapore, “ASEAN: The Way Ahead” , 9-1, http://www.aseansec.org/13991.htm)

Should regionalism collapse, then ASEAN too will
AND
devastating than those exploded in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. 

Peace Process Add-On

Engaging the MB is key to salvage the peace process
Hamid 11
(Shadi, Director of Research at the Brookings Doha Center and Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “The Rise of the Islamists,” Foreign Affairs, May/Jun2011, Vol. 90, Issue 3, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67696/shadi-hamid/the-rise-of-the-islamists)

For decades, U.S. policy toward the Middle East has been paralyzed
AND
will need to finally come to terms with Islamists.

Peace process failure goes nuclear
Nawash 9
(Kamal, director of the legal department at the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee and attorney at the Nawash Law Office in Washington, D.C., “Israel/Palestine Conflict May Lead to Nuclear War”, 1-10-09, http://www.arabisto.com/article/Blogs/Kamal_Nawash/IsraelPalestine_Conflict_May_Lead_to_Nuclear_War/28363)

The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians is
AND
security for Israel. There are no other choices. 

Europe CP 2AC

Visible U.S. action is key to boost credibility
Ebeld 7
(Hanaa M., Specialist, development studies
AND
.org/aiarticles/176.pdf)

The recent revisions of USAID activity priorities and
AND
the Egyptian public’s perception of the United States.

U.S. signal’s key
Russell 11 (Gerard, Research Fellow at the Kennedy School of Government – Harvard University, and Mina Al-Oraibi, Bureau Chief – Asharq Al-Awsat (World’s Largest Pan-Arab Daily Newspaper), “The Trust Deficit: Seven
Steps Forward for U.S. —
AND
_Al-Oraibi_Russell.pdf)

The United States Still Uniquely Matters
This article has addressed itself entirely to the
AND
principles, it can move in that direction.

EU can’t solve Mideast credibility
Ridzam 7 (Datuk, EU Ambassador, “EU Can Use Past for Future Benefits”, New Straits Times, 5-6, Lexis)

While it is foremost a global economic player
AND
even disinterested in the rest of the world.

 EU won’t moderate the MB - they’ll just observe
Hamid 10 (Shadi, Director of Research – Brookings Doha Center and Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, and Amanda Kadlec, Project on Middle East Democracy, “Strategies for Engaging Political Islam”, January, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2010/01_political_islam _hamid/01_political_islam_hamid.pdf)

The U.S. and EU are
AND
insurance policy” in case Islamists come to power

Clear high-level U.S. signal is critical to meaningful engagement
Faris 11 (David M., Assistant Professor of Political Science – Roosevelt University and Strategy Group Adviser – Meta-Activism Project, “Why Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood isn't the Islamic bogeyman”, Ikhwan Web, 3-13, http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=28200)

US can form new relationship
Any post-Mubarak Egyptian future that is
AND
uncertainty, Washington sided with the status quo.
The Obama administration’s refusal to openly side with
AND
undo the damage of the administration’s early wavering.
Under Mubarak, Egypt’s authoritarian state has included
AND
the real cost of supporting the Egyptian regime.
The United States now has the opportunity to
AND
more, and our ideals demand nothing less.

Only U.S. democracy assistance has the training, skills, and experience necessary to make the transition successful
Masloski 11 (Andrew, Senior Research Assistant with the Saban Center for Middle East Policy – Brookings Institution and Director of Educational Outreach – America Abroad Media, “The Price of Democracy in Egypt”, The Middle East Channel – Foreign Policy, 2-9, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/09/the_price_of_ democracy_in_egypt)

Since 1979 the United States has spent nearly
AND
its commitment to democracy in the Middle East.

SKFTA – 2AC

Budget and multiple other controversies will force trade down the agenda and thump the link
Needham, 8/14  (Vicki, The Hill, http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/1005-trade/176781-white-house-pushes-congress-to-prioritize-passing-free-trade-deals)

A House aide suggested that the Obama administration send the agreements to Capitol Hill. "The president highlighted the agreements yesterday in his speech in
AND
bill to help veterans find jobs when they return home. 

Will pass no matter – GOP will stay unified and business lobby pressure – the votes are already in place
Hooper, 9/10/11  (Molly, Columnist @ The Hill, http://thehill.com/homenews/house/180751-obama-backed-trade-pacts-could-be-heavy-lift-for-house-gop)

Over the past few days, House and
AND
deputy whips have been sounding out lawmakers informally.

Democracy assistance to Egypt was already appropriated in the FY12 budget – no debate over it
McInerney 11
(Stephen, Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy, “The Federal Budget and Appropriations
for Fiscal Year 2012,” July 2011, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf)

The Middle East and North Africa in
AND
independent civil society and its reversal is welcome.

Limited engagement triggers the link
Rubin 11 (Barry, Director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and Editor – Middle East Review, “A Major U.S. Policy Shift Toward the Muslim Brotherhood Disguised”, Rubin Reports, 6-30, http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/06/30/us-policy-shift-toward-the-muslim-brotherhood/)

Here’s the headline: “U.S
AND
for engaging with the Brotherhood, even tentatively.

Future engagement inevitable but doesn’t solve the case
Hamid 11 (Shadi, Director of Research – Brookings Doha Center and Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “Revolution in Cairo”, PBS Interview, 3-4, http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/revolution-in-cairo/interviews/shadi-hamid.html#5)

Do you think the United States is actually
AND
with the Muslim Brotherhood going forward in Egypt?
I think the U.S. doesn't
AND
to be part of that new political scene.
So the U.S. has to
AND
with Brotherhood leaders sooner rather than later. …
And I think the Brotherhood itself has made
AND
having close relationship with the U.S.
But that aside, the Brotherhood does recognize
AND
also an exchange of interests going forward. ...
Is that conversation happening right now?
It's not happening yet. There haven't been
AND
democracy, but we're afraid of its outcomes.
This is our Islamist dilemma. And now
AND
which up until now largely support repressive autocrats.
What do you mean? What is the Islamist dilemma from a U.S. policy perspective?
That if there are free and fair elections
AND
do very well or maybe even potentially win.
You have said several times in this interview
AND
through a coalition government or through a majority?
They're certainly on a path to being part
AND
have to think about sooner rather than later.

USAID does the plan
Carothers 9 (Thomas, Vice President for Studies – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “Revitalizing U.S. Democracy Assistance: The Challenge of USAID”, Carnegie Report, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/revi talizing_democracy_assistance.pdf)

President Obama and his foreign policy team are
AND
starting point for such a process of revitalization.

That avoids the link
Schoenbrod 93 (David, Professor of Law – New York Law School, Adjunct Scholar – Cato Institute and Former Staff Attorney and Co-Director – Project on Urban Transportation, Power Without Responsibility, p. 9-10)

Delegation, Like Budget Deficits, Hides Costs
Delegation can shield our elected lawmakers from blame
AND
appear to kiss both sides of the apple."

The plan’s a win for Obama
Lane 11
(Charles, Washington Post editorial writer, “Obama can reap political capital from revolt in Egypt”, 2-15-11, http://www.thenewstribune.com/2011/02/15/1545321/obama-can-reap-political-capital.html)

If Obama reaches out effectively to the democratic
AND
in Egypt over the rest of his term.  

Winners win
Halloran 10 (Liz, Reporter – NPR
AND
/story.php?storyId=125594396)

Amazing what a win in a major legislative
AND
now suggest is a losing issue for them. 

General “promotion” links don’t apply - “assistance” is under the political radar
Bader 10 (Max, Postdoctoral Researcher and Lecturer – Geschwister School Institute for Political Science, Against All Odds. Aiding Political Parties in Georgia and Ukraine, p. 25)

Being not as visible and not as contested
AND
for6profit consultancy and  the inclusion in party internationals. 

Tradeoff DA 2AC

(   ) No link – funding would come out of a regional response budget – really
Stephen McInerney serves as POMED's Director for Legislative Affairs and Editor of the POMED Wire blog. He has more than six years experience in the region, including graduate studies of Middle Eastern politics, history, and the Arabic language at the American University in Cairo and the American University of Beirut., July 2011, “The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012,” http://www.boell.org/downloads/FY2012_Budget_Report_revised_-_web.pdf
Transitions in the Middle East are a top
AND
Syria, Libya, Yemen, or elsewhere.

(   ) And, even if they win internal tradeoffs it would come from unspent funds already allocated for Egypt
Stephen McInerney serves as POMED's Director for Legislative Affairs and Editor of the POMED Wire blog. He has more than six years experience in the region, including graduate studies of Middle Eastern politics, history, and the Arabic language at the American University in Cairo and the American University of Beirut., July 2011, “The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012,” http://www.boell.org/downloads/FY2012_Budget_Report_revised_-_web.pdf
Transitions in the Middle East are a top
AND
for democracy and governance during this historic moment.   

(   ) No trade-off  funding isn’t zero-sum
Kurz 2K
(Ester, Legislative Director – AIPAC, Middle East Quarterly, June, http://www.meforum.org/article/63)

Kurz: It's not as simple as taking from one country
AND
 need a broader educational process.

(   ) Fiat means the plan is emergency spending - this doesn’t trade-off
Castle 1
(Representative, March 8, FDCH, Lexis)

Briefly, here is how the account would
AND
a year (excluding the Persian Gulf War). 

(   ) USAID spending increases are coming in FY12
ASTMH 11
(American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, “The President's Fiscal Year 2012 Budget,” 2-24-11, http://www.astmh.org/source/blog/post.cfm/the-president-s-fiscal-year-2012-budget)

USAID Global Health and Child Survival funding increases,
AND
 an increase from $225 million in FY2010.

Any war impact turns agriculture
Casagrande ’05 (Rocco,- Director in the Homeland Defense practice at Abt Associates and scientist at Surface Logix in Brighton, Mass where he is developing methods and devices for detecting biological. Weapons “Testimony before the House Committee on Homeland Security, Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing and Terrorism Risk Assessment” http://cns.miis.edu/research/cbw/aglinks.htm)

Rival states have a significant financial motivation to
AND
caused the destruction of our corn or cows? 

Oil DA on the case 2AC
(   ) China will cut oil consumption
Xinhua 9-7 (“China Outlines Targets in Energy Use Reduction”, 2011,  http://english.cri.cn/6909/2011/09/07/189s657269.htm)
China said on Wednesday that it aims to
AND
instead of volume while increasing the tax rate.
Tanks prices more than the plan
Hauke 7 (Justin P., Former Research Analyst – Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, “Asian Nations Driving World Oil Prices”, The Regional Economist, April, http://stlouisfed.org/publications/re/articles/?id=37)
Oil might not make the world go round
AND
China and India—is driving price trends.
Market Conditions
Oil is a global commodity; its price
AND
S. refineries in the Gulf of Mexico.
Expectations of future supply and future prices also
AND
inventories, which leads to higher prices today.
But the recent increase in world energy consumption
AND
the recovery from the most recent recession.3
(   ) Price collapse impossible - high prices are structurally set - and there’s no impact to a small drop
Lewis 11 (Barbara, London-Based
AND
/08/05/160994.html)
Oil prices in London would have to drop
AND
and the Saudi budget,” Bernstein Research said.
Global renewables are tanking
Victor 11 (David G., Professor of International Relations – University of California, San Diego, “The Crisis in Clean Energy”, Foreign Affairs, July / August, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67903/david-g-victor-and-kassia-yanosek/the-crisis-in-clean-energy)
After years of staggering growth, the clean
AND
tiny share of the investment focuses on innovation.
Warming’s inevitable
NPR 9 (National Public Radio, 1
AND
/story.php?storyId=99888903)
Climate change is essentially irreversible, according to a sobering new scientific study.
As carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise,
AND
who is among the world's top climate scientists.
"We're used to thinking about pollution problems
AND
you know, it'll go away pretty quickly."
That's the case for some of the gases
AND
the carbon dioxide emissions won't stop global warming.
"People have imagined that if we stopped
AND
more than a thousand years," Solomon says.
This is because the oceans are currently soaking
AND
will take place for many hundreds of years.
Solomon is a scientist with the National Oceanic
AND
in terms of sea level rise and drought.
AT: MB Losing Now
Lack of serious opposition ensures MB power
Rubin 11
(Barry, director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal, “Egypt: Things Just Keep Getting Worse,” 6-15-11, http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/06/15/egypt-things-just-keep-getting-worse/)
Three months before the September
AND
victory: no serious opposition.
Turkey CP 2AC
(Most answers the same as our answers to the EU CP - look for those under GSU Round 4. I only included things that were Turkey-specific or things that I didn't read in that other debate here)
Turkey doesn’t solve – seen as week and no influence in the Middle East
Steven A. Cook is the Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, 5/5 2011, “Arab Spring, Turkish Fall,” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/05/05/arab_spring_turkish_fall
Among the many myths that the Arab spring
AND
the regional leader to which Ankara has aspired.
(   ) U.S.-managed democratic transition is critical to sustain US/Egyptian relations - solves multiple regional conflicts
Schenker 11 (David, Fellow and Director of the Program on Arab Politics – Washington Institute and Former Levant Country Director – Secretary of Defense, “Egypt’s Enduring ChallengesPolicy Recommendations”, The Cutting Edge, 7-25, http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=52459)
Reestablish Egypt as a regional actor and shore
AND
served by Cairo playing a reinvigorated regional role.
Egypt may be poised to embrace such a
AND
in a position to take on these responsibilities.
Notwithstanding the prospect of an Amr Mousa administration
AND
—an important, albeit unreliable, friend.
For this reason, each of the policy
AND
than ever, Washington must stay actively involved.
Egypt is a regional bellwether—the most
AND
the region as a whole depends on it.
Global nuclear war
Aly 6 (Abdel Monem Said, Director
AND
/saban/analysis/abdelmonem20060131.pdf)
U.S.-Egyptian relations can be
AND
the alliance has become indispensable for both sides.
SKFTA - 2AC
(Again, most of our answers to SKFTA can be found under GSU Round 4. I only included here stuff that we didn't read in that debate)
Democracy aid to Egypt is safe from debates on cutting foreign aid
McArthur 11
(Shirl, congressional correspondent for the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs,” July 2011, http://washington-report.org/component/content/article/370-2011-july/10551-congress-watch-congress-finally-passes-bill-to-fund-government-through-current-fiscal-year.html)
After months of non-productive partisan
AND
bill earmarks $300 million in military aid.
Military support ensures pro national security and cost saving spins
Bade and Gawel, ’11 ( Rachel and Anna, Managing Editor, Washington Diplomat, March, http://washdiplomat.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=7203:americas-foreign-affairs-budget-faces-congressional-chopping-block&catid=1088:march-2011&Itemid=469
Smart power is not only integral to national security —
AND
and that's with the Iraq war winding down.
Action on Egypt is bipart
Negrin 11
(Matt, staff writer for Politico, “Biden: 'Pivotal moment' in Egypt”, 2-11-11, http://www.politico.com/politico44/perm/0211/vp_speaks_first_73cc39c5-5ffb-4c3a-88a0-e458fcf3bf1a.html)
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's resignation
AND
these delicate and fateful days ahead."
Generic Dip Cap DA 2AC
(   ) Obama already promised democracy assistance to Egypt
VOA News 11
(“Assistance to Egypt”, 6-01-11, http://www.voanews.com/policy/editorials/Assistance-to-Egypt-122978883.html)
The United States is committed to assisting
AND
increase youth and women’s participation.
(   ) Democracy assistance to Egypt will increase in the FY12 budget – it’s inevitable
McInerney 11
(Stephen, Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy, “The Federal Budget and Appropriations
for Fiscal Year 2012,” July 2011,
AND
)
The Middle East and North Africa in July
AND
independent civil society and its reversal is welcome.
(   ) No trade-off - the U.S. can do both
Hamid 10 (Shadi, Director of Research – Brookings Doha Center and Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “How to Revive Obama's Middle East Policy? Some Responses”, Ikhwan Web, 1-5, http://ikhwanmisr.net/article.php?id=22468)
In a section called “our solutions,”
AND
state, before they can control their own?
Fortunately, the U.S., can
AND
any case, haven’t made for great allies.
(   ) U.S. has the resources to do both - Egypt doesn’t trade-off
WP 11 (Washington Post, “Help for Egypt”, 4-26, Lexis)
ONE OF THE OBAMA administration's explanations for its
AND
[about] what's going on in Egypt?"
We'd like to think the United States has
AND
help can take, other than the rhetorical.

A2: T – DA Must Be Conditional – 2AC
Counter-interp - “DA” is technical transfers
Burnell 7 (Peter J., Professor of Politics and International Studies – University of Warwick, “Does International Democracy Promotion Work?”, German Development Institute Discussion Paper, 17, http://www.die-gdi.de/CMS-Homepage/openwebcms3.nsf/(ynDK_contentByKey)/ADMR-7BRF46/$FILE/BurnellPromotionWork.pdf)
All things considered, however, there is
AND
public policy for things like managing the economy.
DA doesn’t need to be QPQ
Carothers 99 (Thomas, Vice President for Studies – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve, p. 6)
TOOLS OF THE TRADE
When policy makers decide they are going to
AND
are usually motivated by other inter¬ests as well.
The most common and often most significant tool
AND
recipient countries may sometimes view it as such).
Tax Credit CP 2AC
(   ) Privatization doesn’t solve credibility or implementation- too chaotic and unmanageable for recipient countries- also links to politics because Congress can’t see where their money is going
Laurie Garrett Senior Fellow for Global Health CFR January 2009, “The Future of Foreign Assistance Amid Global Economic and Financial Crisis”
Beyond the question of what America buys with
AND
government strategies, and utterly lacking in sustainability.
(   ) Private assistance shatters U.S. credibility
Dobransky 11 (Steve, Adjunct Professor of Political Science – Cleveland State University, and MA – Ohio University, “The Coming Crisis in U.S. Foreign Aid: Policy Options for the 21st Century”, American Diplomacy, 3-7, http://www.unc.edu/depts/diplomat/item/2011/0104/comm/dobransky_coming.html)
Policy Option #6: Promote Private Organizations
AND
with the contractor Blackwater (now, Xe).
(   ) CP won’t be perceived as strong federal action
Rigby 9 (Elizabeth, Professor of Political Science – University of Houston, “Tax Credits vs. Spending: Why Progressives Should Care How the Stimulus is Delivered”, Huffington Post, 1-5, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/elizabeth-rigby/tax-credits-vs-spending-w_b_155389.html)
Similarly, since even successful tax expenditures are
AND
later efforts to build on the initial investment.
(   ) Visible USAID funds are key to credibility in Egypt
Ebeld 7
(Hanaa M., Specialist, development studies; Egypt, “Money Can’t Buy Love: USAID Assistance to Egypt,” Arab Insights 1(2), Fall 2007, http://www.arabinsight.org/aiarticles/176.pdf)
The recent revisions of USAID
AND
Egyptian public’s perception of the United States.
Coercion DA 2AC
Evaluate consequences – their specific absolutism is irresponsible
Isaac 2 (Jeffrey C., Professor of Political Science – Indiana-Bloomington, Director – Center for the Study of Democracy and Public Life, Ph.D. – Yale, Dissent Magazine, 49(2), “Ends, Means, and Politics”, Spring, Proquest)
As writers such as Niccolo Machiavelli, Max
AND
promotes arrogance. And it undermines political effectiveness.
Case outweighs – nuclear war is coercive and causes extinction. Their authors concede
Rothbard 73 (Murray, Dean of Austrian
AND
)
Many libertarians are uncomfortable with foreign policy matters
AND
libertarianism—would be of no importance whatsoever.
Property rights aren’t absolute
Paul 81 (Jeffrey, Professor of Philosophy, Bowling Green State University, Reading Nozick, p. 9-10)
Like Scanlon, Judith Jarvis T'homson is skeptical
AND
deontological conception of them leads him to believe.
US-Egypt FTA CP 2AC
(   ) Political party training is key to MB moderation - boosting secular groups makes the Brotherhood compete in the election - drawing it to the middle
Yacoubian 6 (Mona, Special Advisor, Muslim World Initiative – U.S. Institute of Peace, “Democracy and Islamist Parties: The Arab Experience”, June, http://www.scribd.com/doc/20777768/Democracy-islamist-parties-the-arab-experience)
Factors for Success
Certainly, there are no guarantees in politics
AND
will exploit political openings to overturn nascent democracies.
• Institution-building. A well-
AND
be crucial to any effort at political reform.
• Establishing clear “red lines.” Vali
AND
of the May 2003 suicide bombings in Casablanca.
• Formation of secular-Islamist reform alliances
AND
an effective counter-weight to ruling regimes.
• Opening political space to allow for genuine
AND
secular parties be strengthened as an effective counterbalance.
Implications for U.S. Policy
Finally, it is important to consider a number of key implications for U.S. policy:
• Engage directly with moderate Islamists.
Given the Islamists’ strong popular appeal, the
AND
from the religious establishments of various Arab countries.
• Enhanced political party training for both secular and moderate Islamist parties.
While NDI and IRI already have political party
AND
and vested with a stake in democratic reform.
(   ) The CP’s not a genuine commitment
Stokes 11
(Bruce, senior transatlantic fellow for economics at the German Marshall Fund, “How trade could help a post-Mubarak Egypt succeed,” 2-10-11, http://www.europeanvoice.com/article/imported/how-trade-could-help-a-post-mubarak-egypt-succeed/70212.aspx)
A US-Egypt free-trade deal
AND
the fortunes of the Mubarak government.
(   ) MB will reject the FTA
IkhwanWeb 5 (“Egypt’s Election Outcome May Threaten Economic Relations”, 12-5, http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=5195)
Egypt’s election outcome may threaten economic relations  The
AND
even though the customs duty is already 600%.
But not the plan - it’s unique
Maaty 11
(Amira, Program Officer, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) at the National Endowment for Democracy, “How Can the U.S. and International Finance Institutions Best Engage Egypt’s Civil Society?” June 2011, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2011/06_egypt_civil_society/06_egypt_civil_society.pdf)
A survey of 50 leading Egyptian CSOs
AND
 public outreach and communication efforts.
(   ) Increasing spending is key to signal our commitment to democracy
Arkedis 11
(Jim, director of the Progressive Policy Institute’s National Security Project, “5 Things That Should Be in Obama’s Speech on the Middle East,” 5-19-11, http://progressivefix.com/5-things-that-should-be-in-obamas-speech-on-the-middle-east)
A Plan of Action: America knows that
AND
so it is not tainted by its source.
SKFTA - 2AC
(Can be found under GSU Round 4)
Tradeoff DA - 2AC
(Can be found under GSU Round 6)
Iran Emboldening DA 2AC
(   ) Iran is emboldened because of protests now
Maloney 11
(Suzanne, Senior Fellow at the Saban
AND
/0224_iran_maloney.aspx)
As upheaval sweeps the Middle East, optimists
AND
is the real victor from this Arab spring.
(   ) Obama already promised democracy assistance to Egypt
VOA News 11
(“Assistance to Egypt”, 6-01-11, http://www.voanews.com/policy/editorials/Assistance-to-Egypt-122978883.html)
The United States is committed to assisting Egypt
AND
development, and increase youth and women’s participation.
(   ) Democracy assistance to Egypt will increase in the FY12 budget – it’s inevitable
McInerney 11
(Stephen, Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy, “The Federal Budget and Appropriations
for Fiscal Year 2012,” July 2011, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf)
The Middle East and North Africa in July 2011
AND
independent civil society and its reversal is welcome.
(   ) MB power strengthens Iran
Chosky 11
(Jamsheed K., professor of Iranian,
AND
)
Nonetheless, Iranian ayatollahs including Ali Khamenei,
AND
determining the future of the whole Middle East.
No aggression - too many checks
Boroujerdi 7 (Mehrzad, Associate Professor of
AND
Syracuse L. Rev. 619, Lexis)
The potential for groupthink miscalculations is also thwarted
AND
a boldly offensive or miscalculated action less realistic.
2AC Orientalism K
(   ) They’re wrong about our motivations
Chandler ‘10
(David Chandler is Professor of International Relations
AND
%20of%20Lib%20Peace.pdf)
In the critiques of the liberal peace,
AND
in so-called ‘Westphalian’ terms.44
(   ) They embrace anti-politics – this dooms their project, cedes politics, and causes extinction
Boggs ’97
(CARL BOGGS – Professor and Ph.
AND
Theory and Society 26: 741-780)
The false sense of empowerment that comes with
AND
interests that had vanished from civil society.75  

(  ) These flaws doom the alt and the K doesn’t turn case
Chandler ‘10
(David Chandler is Professor of International Relations
AND
%20of%20Lib%20Peace.pdf)
It would seem that at the core of
AND
of a critical alternative embedded in these approaches. 

Contention 2 - Israel

Israel’s carefully watching U.S. policy toward Egypt - lack of aid is interpreted as support
Telhami 11 (Shibley, Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development – University of Maryland and Senior Fellow – Brookings Institution, “Israel’s Priorities”, New York Times, 5-17, http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2011/01/31/mubaraks-role-and-mideast-peace/israels-priorities)

No matter what the outcome of Egyptian uprising ….deciding how to deal with them. 

The plan spikes short-term Israeli security concerns, but doesn’t go far enough to seriously damage relations
Miller 11 (Aaron David, Public Policy Scholar – Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and Member – U.S. Advisory Council of Israel Policy Forum, “For Better or For Worse”, Foreign Policy Magazine, 3-7, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/03/07/for_better_or_for_worse?page=full)

Israelis, like most Jews, worry for a living. The dark side …. their relationship with the United States.

Signal from the U.S. is critical and outweighs every alt cause
Telhami 11 (Shibley, Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development – University of Maryland and Senior Fellow – Brookings Institution, “Arab and Israeli Peace Initiatives: A Last Chance for Negotiations?”, Middle East Policy Council Roundtable, 8-25, http://www.mepc.org/hill-forums/arab-and-israeli-peace-initiatives-last-chance-negotiations-0?transcript)

In fact, it wasn’t clear even in public opinion polls in the U.S. Initial …. strategic relationship with the U.S.

Threat perceptions tilt Israeli budget debates toward strong defense spending
Chalamish 11 (Efraim, Ph.D., Economics and Security Analyst, and International Economic Law Scholar, “U.S. and Middle East – On Perception of Economic Power”, Economic Development and Security Blog, 8-2, http://www.economonitor.com/efraimchalamish/2011/08/02/u-s-and-middle-east-on-perception-of-economic-power/)

The United States and its Middle East ally, Israel, once again, share … experiences. Eventually, they share similar fates.

Only short-term perceptions matter - the IDF will lock-in a multi-year defense plan in the next 6 months - higher spending is critical to Israeli deterrence
Katz 11 (Yaakov, Military Correspondent and Defense Analyst – JP, “Budget Uncertainty Leaves Defense Funding Undecided”, Jerusalem Post, 8-7, http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=232845)

Concern is growing in the IDF over the possibility …. should be approved,” Mofaz said.

Deterrent failure causes WMD conflict in the Mideast and jacks U.S. regional power projection
Danziger 95 (Raphael, “End American Aid to Israel?: No, It Remains Vital”, Middle East Quarterly, II(2), September, http://www.meforum.org/259/end-american-aid-to-israel-no-it-remains-vital)

In addition to this specifically Middle Eastern role, Israel maintains … alone has more troops, tanks, aircraft, and artillery than Israel does.

That goes nuclear and draws in great powers
Gold 7 (Thomas J., Masters in Strategic Intelligence – Joint Military Intelligence College, Nuclear Conflict in the Middle East: An Analysis of Future Events, p. 53-55)

If the political, ethnic, and military policies, and ….global nuclear war is now a possibility. 

Even without escalation - bio weapons will be used - boosting deterrence solves
Steinberg 99 (Gerald M., Professor of Political Science – Bar Ilan University (Israel), “Re-Examining Israel’s Security Doctrine”, RUSI International Security Review, http://faculty.biu.ac.il/~steing/arms/doctrine.htm)

As the dangers of a large scale combined conventional …. security situation changes radically.)

It’ll be smallpox
Corsi 7 (Jerome, Ph.D. – Harvard University, “Syria Ready With Bio-Terror If U.S. Hits Iran”, WordNet Daily, 3-5, http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=54542)

"Syria is positioned to launch a biological … in camels," but rarely, if ever, causes the disease in humans. 

Extinction - generic defense doesn’t apply
Singer 1 (Clifford E., Professor of Nuclear Engineering and Director of the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security – University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, “Will Mankind Survive the Millennium?”, http://www.acdis.uiuc.edu/research/S&Ps/2001-Sp/S&P_XIII/Singer.htm)

There are, however, two technologies currently … be in question when and if this is achieved.

U.S. regional influence prevents oil manipulation from causing global economic collapse
Gholz 97 (Eugene and Daryl Press – Ph.D. Candidates in Political Science – MIT and Harvey Sapolsky, Professor of Political Science – MIT, “Come Home, America: The Strategy of Restraint in the Face of Temptation”, International Security, 21(4), Spring, p. 25-27)

A LIMITED PULLBACK FROM THE MIDDLE EAST
The strategic environment in the Middle East is …. Middle Eastern oil are not monopolized by a regional hegemon.

Extinction
Austin 9 (Michael, Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute, and Desmond Lachman – Resident Fellow – American Enterprise Institute, “The Global Economy Unravels”, Forbes, 3-6, http://www.aei.org/article/100187)

What do these trends mean in the short and medium …. explosions that coalesce into a big bang. 

Israeli defense spending is critical to secure gas fields in the Mediterranean
UPI 11 (United Press International, “Israel Pressured To Cut Defense Spending”, 8-12, http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Israel_pressured_to_cut_defense_spending_999.html)

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is …. becoming difficult to sustain.

Conflict’s likely - draws in Greece and Turkey
Athanasiadis 11 (Iason, Nieman Fellow – Harvard University and Political Analyst – BBC, “A Mediterranean Battlefield”, The Majalla, 1-31, http://www.al-majalla.com/en/geopolitics/article247806.ece)

Greece’s finances may be battered, so why is the …. coup against the incumbent government.

Escalates to World War III
Jacobs 11 (Cindy, President – Generals International, “Regional Conflict Could Spark World War III”, Charisma, 4-13, http://www.charismamag.com/index.php/news-old/30682-regional-conflict-could-spark-world-war-iii)

Many people have been asking me to update them …. could change. 

Also causes Balkan escalation
Lesser 1 (Dr. Ian, Senior Political Scientist – RAND Corporation, “Greece’s New Geopolitics”, http://library.northsouth.edu/Upload/s%20New%20Geopolitics.pdf)

Since the Cyprus crisis of 1974, the potential for a major …. mired in Aegean problems.

Global nuclear war
CDH 99 (Chicago Daily Herald, 5-9, Lexis)

We hear the grim rationale for sending in … self-destruction.

Contention 2 - Religious Freedom

International Religious Freedom—or IRF—hasn’t been integrated into U.S. policy - presidential leadership’s key
Grieboski 11 (Joseph K., Founder and Chair – The Institute on Religion and Public Policy, “U.S. Foreign Policy and International Religious Expression”, CQ Congressional Testimony, 6-3, Lexis)

IRFA was passed in 1998 because of a
AND
and impactful an issue to be handled halfheartedly.

The plan ends exclusion of the Islamic MB and empowers embassies to engage religious groups
Hamid 10 (Shadi, Director of Research – Brookings Doha Center and Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “The Islamist Response to Repression: Are Mainstream Islamist Groups Radicalizing?”, Brookings Doha Center Policy Briefing, August, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/ 2010/0809_islamist_groups_hamid/0809_islamist_groups_hamid.pdf)

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
Islamist leaders often speak of an “American
AND
-hoc meetings lacking a substantive agenda. 3

A firm Presidential mandate to engage the MB broadens diplomatic authority to implement IRF
Farr 6 (Thomas, Former Director – U.S. State Department's Office of International Religious Freedom, “The Diplomacy of Religious Freedom”, First Things, May, http://www.firstthings.com/article/2008/02/003-the-diplomacy-of-religious-freedom--35)

Without more attention to such issues, Iraq
AND
embrace a new religious realism in foreign affairs.

Overriding State Department reticence on democracy programs spills over and boosts overall U.S. leadership on IRF
Farr 11 (Thomas F., Director – Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs, “U.S. Foreign Policy and International Religious Expression”, CQ Congressional Testimony, 6-3, Lexis)

Fortunately the amendments in HR 1856 address these
AND
chiefs of mission before they assume their duties.

U.S. IRF credibility solves conflict in every hotspot - goes nuclear
Farr 9 (Thomas F., Professor of Religion and International Affairs – Georgetown's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and Director – Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs, “The Widow's Torment: International Religious Freedom and American National Security in the 21st Century”, Drake Law Review, Summer, 57 Drake L. Rev. 851, Lexis)

However, an exclusively humanitarian view of religious
AND
Islamist terrorism and a nuclear weapons capability. 35

Escalates to global war - religion’s key
Adams 00 (Nathan A. IV, Associate – Church-State Practice Group of Rothgerber, Johnson & Lyons LLP, Ph.D. in International Political Economy – University of Florida, and JD – University of Texas School of Law, “A Human Rights Imperative: Extending Religious Liberty Beyond the Border”, Cornell International Law Journal, 33 Cornell Int'l L.J. 1, Lexis)

III. Additional Reasons for Promoting Religious Tolerance
Additional reasons exist for reassessing … based on the sovereign state." 226

Extinction
Harris 5 (Sam, Ph.D. in Philosophy and Neuroscience – Stanford University and Co-Founder and CEO – Project Reason, The End of Faith: Religion, Terror, and the Future of Reason, p. 25-26)

Our world is fast succumbing to the activities
AND
found a recipe for the fall of civilization.

Weakness on IRF spills over - shattering overall State Department credibility
Philpott 4 (Daniel, Professor of Political Science at the Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies – University of Notre Dame, “Religious Freedom and the Undoing of the Westphalian State”, Michigan Journal of International Law, 25(4), http://students.law.umich.edu/mjil/uploads/articles/v25n4-philpott.pdf)

Given that religious freedom is firmly in the
AND
1999 and have each issued five annual reports. 

State Department cred’s key to diplomatic power - solves ethnic conflict and eco collapse
Stringer 7 (Dr. Kevin D., Adjunct Professor of Security Studies – Baltic Defense College, Ph.D. in Political Science / International Relations – University of Zurich, MA in International Relations – Boston University, “Think Global, Act Local: Honorary Consuls in a Transforming Diplomatic World”, Discussion Papers in Diplomacy, 10-1, http:// www.corpoconsolarevenezia.it/documenti/clingendael-consoli-onorari-nov07.pdf)

Extending Consular Representation
Until recently, the consular element of national
AND
, especially in the economic fields of endeavor. 

Ethnic conflicts are proliferating - diplomacy stops escalation to global nuclear war
Crawford 9 (Dr. Beverley, Associate Director of the Institute of European Studies and Lecturer of International and Area Studies – University of California, Berkeley, “Ethnic Conflict in Georgia: What Lies Ahead”, 4-17, http://rpgp. berkeley.edu/node/87)

Ironically, at the same time that the
AND
global confrontation triggered by ethnic and sectarian conflicts.

Eco collapse causes global war and extinction - international cooperation solves
Brauch 8 (Hans, Professor – Free University of Berlin and Fellow – Institute on Environment and Human Security, “From a State Centred Security Dilemma Towards a Human Centred Survival Dilemma”, 7-23, http://www.afes-press.de/html/WISC%20II,%20Brauch_paper_25.7.2008.pdf)

The Interaction Council, an organization of former
AND
demographic changes, and global energy demand. 3  

U.S. model on IRF solves Chinese instability and lash-out - goes nuclear
Farr 8 (Thomas F., Professor of Religion and International Affairs – Georgetown's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and Director – Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs, World of Faith and Freedom: Why International Religious Liberty Is Vital to American National Security, p. 16)

Religion has also …  influence on democratic policy.

Independently triggers Taiwan independence - causes great power conflict
Klintworth 94 (Gary, Former Senior Researcher – Northeast Asia Project, Australian Journal of International Affairs, November, p. 219)

China also has many problems, not least … regional and global security.

Global nuclear war
Hunkovic 9 (Lee J, American Military University, “The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict: Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America”, http://www.lamp-method.org/eCommons/ Hunkovic.pdf)

A war between China, Taiwan and the United States … not be considered in this study.

\\

It spills over - poor Egypt policy tips Arab strategic calculations to encourage divestment and an OPEC switch from the dollar - tanking the U.S. economy
Freeman 7 (Chas W., Director – Atlantic Council and Former U.S. Ambassador – Saudi Arabia, “U.S. Foreign Policy and the Arab World (Part II)”, The Globalist, 8-21, http://www.theglobalist.com/StoryId.aspx?StoryId=6314)

It is clear that the United States must
AND
energy and related commodity markets would be profound.

U.S. collapse goes global - sparks resource wars that escalate to nuclear war
Broward 9 (Via Newsflavor – A Network of Political and World News Journalists, “Will an Economic Collapse Kill You?”, 4-9, http://newsflavor.com/opinions/will-an-economic-collapse-kill-you/)

It may or may not sound likely to
AND
important issue facing us in the 21st century.

OPEC switch shatters the dollar and U.S. hegemony
Looney 4 (Robert, Professor of Economics – Naval Postgraduate School, “Petroeuros: A Threat to U.S. Interests in the Gulf?”, Middle East Policy, 3-22, http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-114741399.html)

5. The great demand for the dollar
AND
military/economic power of the United States.

Heg collapse causes global nuclear war
Arbatov 7 (Alexei, Member – Russian Academy of Sciences and Editor – Russia in Global Affairs, “Is a New Cold War Imminent?”, Russia in Global Affairs, 5(3), July / September, http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/numbers/20/1130.html)

However, the low probability of a new
AND
one or several major capitals of the world.  

Dollar decline causes US/China nuclear war
Porter 6 (Dave , Director of Business Development-Structures at General Dynamics, “Oregon Steel”, Blue Oregon, 12-8, http://www.blueoregon.com/2006/12/ff_oregon_steel.html)

There could be a soft landing or a
AND
the skills to get through such a crisis.

Independent of OPEC - weak US/Arab relations undermine sustainable financing of the deficit
BusinessWeek 6 (“The New Middle East Oil Bonanza”, 3-13, http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/06_11/b3975001.htm)

Plenty could still go wrong. Despite all
AND
role, then, could just get bigger.

Arab money’s critical
Habibi 9 (Nader, Professor of Economics of the Middle East – Brandeis University and Dr. Eckart Woertz, Director of the Economic Research Program – Gulf Research Center (Dubai), “U.S. - Arab Economic Relations and the
Obama Administration”, 34, February, http://www.brandeis.edu/crown/publications/meb/MEB34.pdf)

The growing financial and … global financial markets.

That sparks protectionism that goes global
Summers 4 (Lawrence, President – Harvard University and Former U.S. Treasury Secretary, “America Overdrawn”, Foreign Policy, July / August, Lexis)

If this savings drought looked like a temporary
AND
importance of rebuilding Washington's rapport with foreign governments. 

Extinction
Pazner 8 (Michael J., Faculty – New York Institute of Finance, Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse, p. 137-138)

The rise in isolationism and protectionism will bring
AND
as the beginnings of a new world war. 

\\

Contention 2 - Global Engagement

High-level technical assistance drives an overall trend to U.S./Muslim engagement
Asali 9 (Ziad, President and Founder – American Task Force on Palestine, et al., “Changing Course: A New Direction for U.S. Relations with the Muslim World”, February, p. 48-54)

Provide top-level U.S.
AND
not serious about political liberalization in Muslim countries.

Starting with the Egyptian Brotherhood is key to make the spillover effective - it has unique ties that open up channels of communication and the signal of the plan brings Islamic groups to the table
Stacher 7 (Joshua, Professor of Political Science – Kent State University, Former Professor of Egyptian History – American University (Cairo), and Post-Doctoral Fellow in Middle Eastern Studies – Syracuse University, “Hear Out Muslim Brotherhood”, Boston Globe, 3-25, http://www.merip.org/newspaper_opeds/oped032507)

On a quiet, one-way street
AND
group in the region than Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood.

That creates a global model for extremist moderation
Phillips 11 (David L., Director of the Program on Peacebuilding and Rights – Columbia University’s Institute for the Study of Human Rights, “Talking to the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt”, Daily News of Egypt, 3-30, http://www.thedailynewsegypt.com/columnists/talking-to-the-muslim-brotherhood-of-egypt.html)

The Obama administration cannot ignore that the Brotherhood
AND
ideology and becoming constructively involved in democratic governance.

Impacts - 

First - Pakistan

Engagement’s key to stability - U.S. secularism drives extremism
Farr 8 (Thomas, Visiting Professor of Religion and Foreign Affairs – Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, “Diplomacy in an Age of Faith Subtitle: Religious Freedom and National Security”, Foreign Affairs, March / April, Lexis) 

DESECULARIZING DIPLOMACY
How can a new strategy on religion …establishment blinded by secularism.

Now’s key - anti-Americanism is escalating and destabilizes Afghanistan - US/Muslim engagement solves
Maginnis 8-18 (Robert, Retired Army lieutenant Colonel and National Security Analyst, “Muslim World More Anti-American Than Ever”, Human Events, 2011, http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=45588)

Third, Pakistan, an erstwhile ally armed
AND
, and assume tougher political and military policies.

Afghan instability causes Russian and Chinese global aggression
Weinstein 4 (Dr. Michael A., Power and Interest News Report, 11-12, http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_printable&report_id=235&language_id=1)

The persistence of insurgencies in Afghanistan and Iraq
AND
crisis or a burst of ultra-nationalism. 

Russian aggression causes global nuclear war
Blank 99 (Steven, Professor of Research – Strategic Studies Institute of US Army War College, Oil and Geopolitics in the Caspian Region, p. 31-32)

The regional structure of political force does little
AND
has willing proxies capable of settling the situation.

So does China
Walton 7 (C. Dale, Lecturer in International Relations and Strategic Studies – University of Reading, Geopolitics and the Great Powers in the 21st Century, p. 49)

Obviously, it is of vital importance to
AND
is not marked by close great power alliances.

Pakistan instability risks global nuclear conflict - moderating Islamists is key
Pitt 9 (William, New York Times and Internationally Bestselling Author, “Unstable Pakistan Threatens the World”, 5-8, Arab American News, http://www.arabamericannews.com/news/index.php?mod=article&cat=commentary& article=2183)

But a suicide bomber in Pakistan rammed a
AND
addressing the situation. So should we all.

Even without collapse, the U.S. will strike Pakistan - sparks nuclear World War III
McBride 7 (Daniel R., Montreal-Based Writer, “From the Torching of the Louvain to Bomber Harris”, Moderate Observer, 8-1, http://moderate.wordpress.com/2007/08/01/lessons-from-bomber-harris-if-the-us-strikes-pakistan/)

One can imagine Musharraf is desperate to remove
AND
missiles), and even India, within hours.

Second - Turkey

Egypt policy spills over to build cooperation with Turkey
Freeman 7 (Chas W., Director – Atlantic Council and Former U.S. Ambassador – Saudi Arabia, “U.S. Foreign Policy and the Arab World (Part II)”, The Globalist, 8-21, http://www.theglobalist.com/StoryId.aspx?StoryId=6314)
*Note – this card continues to part 3 of the article

It is clear that the United States must
AND
Southeast Asia as well as key countries like Nigeria

It’s unique - Turkey’s sliding toward radical Islam - risks anti-American aggression
Maginnis 8-18 (Robert, Retired Army lieutenant Colonel and National Security Analyst, “Muslim World More Anti-American Than Ever”, Human Events, 2011, http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=45588)

Second, Turkey is on a glide path
AND
transformation, which bodes poorly for American influence.  

Impact’s global war
Sitilides 97 (John, Executive Director of the Western Policy Center, a Government Relations Specialist, and Formerly Served as the Executive Assistant to Senator D’Amato, 5/19/1997 (“Dividing the Aegean Sea: A Plan in Progress?” – The Hellenic Resources Institute) http://www.hri.org/forum/intpol/sitil.html)

As long as geopolitical and strategic considerations … which no longer exists.

Each scenario risks global nuclear war
Landay 00 (Jonathan S., National Security and Intelligence Correspondent, Knight Ridder/Tribune News Service, 3-10, Lexis)

Few if any experts think China and Taiwan
AND
last year, according to the Commerce Department.

Turkish aggression sparks naval conflicts with Israel and Greece
Champion 9-9 (Marc, Turkish Bureau Chief – WSJ, “Turkey Takes a Harder Line Abroad”, Wall Street Journal, 2011, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904103404576558511184832354.html)

Turkey is showing signs of trading its vaunted
AND
professor of international relations at Istanbul's Bilgi University.

That draws-in great powers and escalates to World War III
Jacobs 11 (Cindy, President – Generals International, “Regional Conflict Could Spark World War III”, Charisma, 4-13, http://www.charismamag.com/index.php/news-old/30682-regional-conflict-could-spark-world-war-iii)

Many people have been asking me to update
AND
as a secular state, this could change. 

Moderating Turkish Islamism’s vital to NATO effectiveness
Inbar 11 (Efraim, Professor of Political Studies – Bar-Ilan University and Director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, “Israeli-Turkish Tensions and their International Ramifications”, Orbis, Winter, p. 145)

Turkey’s new positioning will undoubtedly facilitate the ability
AND
stop potential leaks and technology transfer to Iran.

Global nuclear war
Brezezinski 9 (Zbigniew, Former U.S. National Security Adviser, “An Agenda for NATO”, Foreign Affairs, 88(5), September / October, Ebsco)

NATO's potential is not primarily military. Although
AND
the United States and the West more generally.

~\~\

U.S. credibility in the Middle East is plummeting
Zogby 11 (Dr. James J., Founder and President – Arab American Institute, “America in Trouble in the Middle East: Obama Understands, But GOP Gloats”, Huffington Post, 7-16, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-zogby/ameri ca-in-trouble-in-the_b_900649.html?ir=World)
Well, the results are in, and
AND
that is being paid by the entire country.
Obama won’t follow through on pledged election assistance for Egypt. That devastates regional influence.
Dorsey 11 (James A., Senior Research Fellow – Middle East Institute, National University of Singapore, “US Risks Missing Opportunity to Play Leading Role in Middle East Transition”, Al Arabiya News, 7-5, http://english.alarabiya .net/articles/2011/07/05/156264.html)
The window of opportunity to throw off the
AND
encourage economic reform, and promote democratic change.
U.S. technical assistance secures credit and revives Arab relations
Hamid 11 (Shadi, Director of Research – Brookings Doha Center and Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “The Struggle for Middle East Democracy”, Ikhwan Web, 4-28, http://ikhwanmisr.net/article.php?id=28468&ref=search.php)
The revolutions are far from complete. Tunisia
AND
. Otherwise, their revolutions may still fail.
Making it open reverses “ala carte democracy” and boosts U.S. standing
Guéhenno 11 (Jean-Marie, Nonresident Senior Fellow – Brookings Institution, “The Arab Spring is 2011, Not 1989”, New York Times, 4-21, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/22/opinion/22iht-edguehenno22.html)
The Arab revolutions are beginning to destroy the
AND
no political process will have a sustainable outcome.
Only unequivocal and clear assistance sends the right message
HRF 11 (Human Rights First – Nonprofit, Nonpartisan International Human Rights Organization, “How to Seize the Moment in Egypt”, April, http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/wp-content/uploads/pdf/Egypt-Blueprint-Seize-the-Moment.pdf)
Over more than three decades since the Camp
AND
the U.S. government should contribute.
Tangible signals of U.S. support are critical - Egypt’s the test case
Elshinnawi 10 (Mohamed, Foreign Affairs Writer – VOA, “Egypt Key to Proving Obama's Commitment to Middle East Democracy”, Voice of America News, 6-30, http://www.voanews.com/english/news/special-reports/american-life/Egypt-Key-to-Proving-Obamas-Commitment-to-Middle-East-Democracy.html)
There has been widespread public agreement in the
AND
the region are still a work in progress.
The impact’s nuclear and biological war in every global hotspot
Asali 9 (Ziad, President and Founder – American Task Force on Palestine, et al., “Changing Course: A New Direction for U.S. Relations with the Muslim World”, February, p. 9-16)
Improving relations with Muslim majority countries and communities
AND
needs at home or other critical challenges abroad.
It spills over - credible democracy assistance builds US/Arab cooperation on a array of issues - including global economic stability
Wittes 8 (Tamara Cofman, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs – U.S. Department of State and Former Senior Fellow – Brookings Institution, Freedom's Unsteady March: America's Role in Building Arab Democracy, p. 2-12)
So it is with full awareness of the
AND
neutral stance toward the question of Arab democracy.
Mideast is critical for the global economy - careful diplomacy’s key to sustain access
Habibi 9 (Nader, Professor of Economics of the Middle East – Brandeis University and Dr. Eckart Woertz, Director of the Economic Research Program – Gulf Research Center (Dubai), “U.S. - Arab Economic Relations and the
Obama Administration”, 34, February, http://www.brandeis.edu/crown/publications/meb/MEB34.pdf)
In this Brief we have identified four issues
AND
its perceived role in the Middle East conflict.
Economic collapse causes extinction
Austin 9 (Michael, Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute, and Desmond Lachman – Resident Fellow – American Enterprise Institute, “The Global Economy Unravels”, Forbes, 3-6, http://www.aei.org/article/100187)
What do these trends mean in the short
AND
small explosions that coalesce into a big bang.
Egyptian aid boosts regional support necessary for reliable energy access
HRF 11 (Human Rights First – Nonprofit, Nonpartisan International Human Rights Organization, “How to Seize the Moment in Egypt”, April, http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/wp-content/uploads/pdf/Egypt-Blueprint-Seize-the-Moment.pdf)
President Obama noted in Cairo that governments that
AND
the United States and thereby serve its interests.
That prevents shocks that go global
Cohen 5 (William, Cohen Group, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense, and Chair – CSIS Advisory Committee on U.S. Policy in the Arab World, et al., “From Conflict to Cooperation: Writing a New Chapter in U.S.-Arab Relations”, March, http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/0503_conflictcooperation.pdf)
Right now, a significant opportunity exists not
AND
been growing in volume since that tragic day.
Extinction
Riddoch 4 (Dr. Malcolm, Faculty of Communications and Creative Industries – Edith Cowan University, Energy  Bulletin, 6-18, http://www.energybulletin.net/node/729)
There are lots of recent 2004 reports speculating
AND nuclear war and its companions famine and pestilence.  

~\~\

MB power expands the Turkish AKP’s influence – causes Iran prolif
Cagaptay 11
(Soner, Director of the Turkish Research Program – The Washington Institute, “Arab Revolt Makes Turkey a Regional Power”, 2-16, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1578)
One of the unexpected consequences of the unrest in …. power, thanks to the Arab Winter of 2011.
Nuclear war
Sokolsky 3 (Henry, Executive Director – Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, Policy Review, 10-1, Lexis)
If nothing is done to shore up U.S. and allied …. spring-loaded to go nuclear.
AKP power collapses US/Turkey relations, hurts Turkish accession to the EU, and strengthens Hamas
Cagaptay 9
(Soner, Director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute, “Turkey's Turn From the West,” 2-2-09, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/02/01/AR2009020101672.html)
Turkey is a special Muslim country. Of the more than …. special  and that would be unfortunate.
Weak US/Turkish relations cause global WMD conflict - especially in Europe and Central Asia
Gillis 4
(Lieutenant Col. Patrick, U.S Army, U.S.–TURKISH RELATIONS: THE ROAD TO IMPROVING A TROUBLED STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP, 5-3, http://stinet.dtic.mil/dticrev/PDFs/ADA424313.pdf)
SECURITY The United States has a considerable …. advantageous for both countries.
Europe escalates to extinction
Elliot 7 (Jeffrey M., North Carolina Central University and Robert Reginald, California State University, San Bernandino, The Arms Control, Disarmament, and Military Security Dictionary, p. 19-20)
Escalation of War (15)
Increasing, enlarging, or intensifying …. in such a critical arena. See also BALANCE OF POWER, 4; CONFLICT, 10; ESCALATION, 71; LIMITED WAR, 20; TOTAL. WAR. 32.
Central Asia goes global
Tsepkalo 98 (Valery V., Belarussian Ambassador to the U.S., Foreign Affairs, March/April, Lexis)
But abetting the continuing destabilization of …. of control over weapons of mass destruction.
EU accession stops terrorism
Phillips 4
(David L., visiting scholar at Columbia University's Center for the Study of Human Rights, “Turkey's Dreams of Accession,” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2004, 83(5), Ebsco)
TURKEY is a secular Muslim democracy and a crucial ally …. oppose the liberal values that form the foundation of the EU.
Global nuclear war
Speice 6 (Patrick, JD Candidate – College of William and Mary, “Negligence and Nuclear Nonproliferation: Eliminating the Current Liability Barrier to Bilateral U.S.-Russian Nonproliferation Assistance Programs”, William and Mary Law Review, 47 Wm and Mary L. Rev. 1427, February, Lexis)
Terrorist groups could acquire a nuclear weapon by … escalate to the use of nuclear weapons.
Accession’s critical to Russian democracy
Katik 2 (Mevlut, London-Based Journalist and Analyst, Former BBC Correspondent and Reporter – The Economist, “A Changing Turkey Awaits European Recognition”, EurasiaNet, http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav121802.shtml)
It is unclear that Turkey can tailor itself to EU ….become harder to ignore.
Global nuclear war
Goodby 2 (James E., Former Fellow – US Institute of Peace, and Piet Buwalda and Dmitriĭ Trenin, A Strategy for Stable Peace: Toward a Euroatlantic Security Community, p. 27-29)
A decade after the Cold War was solemnly buried, there is still ….form of authoritarian and paternalistic rule.

~\~\

MB control causes social repression - collapses the economy and causes refugee flows that destabilize Europe
Ali 11 (Ayaan Hirsi, Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute, “Will the Muslim Brotherhood Succeed
Where Osama Failed?”, New Perspectives Quarterly, 28(3), Summer, p. 21-22)
AT   H O M E | In order
AND
. But the doctrine of jihad lives on.
Egypt will melt down into state collapse
Coleman 11 (Isabel, Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy – Council on Foreign Relations, “Egypt’s Economic Woes”, 5-20, http://www.isobelcoleman.com/2011/05/20/egypts-economic-woes/)
Egypt in particular is staggering economically, and
AND
a dent in its high level of unemployment.
Escalates to global conflict
Copley 11 (Gregory O., Editor – Global Information System and Defense & Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy, “Strategic Ramifications of the Egyptian Crisis”, World Tribune, 2-1, http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/ WTARC/2011/me_egypt0088_02_01.asp)
In the Preface to the Defense & Foreign
AND
the re-emergence of a charismatic leader.
Mass refugee influxes cause European hyper-nationalism
Greenblatt 11
(Alan, NPR, “Arab Refugees Finding Harsh Welcome In Europe,” 3-18-11, http://www.scpr.org/news/2011/03/18/25092/arab-refugees-finding-harsh-welcome-in-europe/)

Thousands are fleeing across the Mediterranean from North
AND
could become too many refugees for many people."
They’ll scapegoat refugees – causing geopolitical jockeying that goes nuclear
Karlin 9
Anatoly Karlin is a San Francisco based independent writer, political analyst, Editing Professional, and media critic. He is also the author of the blog Sublime Oblivion focusing on the Russia, geopolitics and future global trends. His articles have appeared in The Guardian PSJ and The Discovery Institute's Real Russia Project,  Sublime Strategic Report #10 – October 23, 2009 – available at: http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2009/10/23/ssr10-europe-black-continent/.
However, conservatives who fear the coming of
AND
deterrence power of nuclear weapons will fall dramatically.
Extinction
Elliot 7 (Jeffrey M., North Carolina Central University and Robert Reginald, California State University, San Bernandino, The Arms Control, Disarmament, and Military Security Dictionary, p. 19-20)
Escalation of War (15)
Increasing, enlarging, or intensifying the nature
AND
, 20; TOTAL. WAR. 32.
Even instability causes extinction via economic collapse, warming, and global conflicts
Stokes 10 (Bruce, International Economics Columnist – National Journal, “Greek Tragedy Haunts Global Markets, Policies”, YaleGlobal, 3-17, http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/opinon/2010/03/137_62527.html)
To paraphrase the noted economist Woody Allen,
AND
articulate forcefully US interests in their crisis management.

~\~\

MB control undermines military relations with Israel - risks Egyptian troop defections and accidental war
Makovsky 8-23 (David, Ziegler Distinguished Fellow and Director of the Project on the Middle East Peace Process – Washington Institute for Near East Policy, “New Tremors in Egypt-Israel Relations”, Council on Foreign Relations Interview, 2011, http://www.cfr.org/egypt/new-tremors-egypt-israel-relations/p25696)
Renewed hostilities along Israel's … very much liable to deteriorate.

Troop movements will cause miscalculated war
Glick 9-6 (Caroline, Deputy Managing Editor – Jerusalem Post, Former Officer – Israeli Defense Forces, and Senior Middle East Fellow – Center for Security Policy, “The Perils of a Remilitarized Sinai”, Canada Free Press, 2011, http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/40111)
THE MILITARY’S demonstrated antagonism toward Israel, the
AND
situation for what it is and act accordingly.

It’s happening now
Sanders 8-30 (Edmund, Reporter – LA Times, “New Egypt Troop Presence in Sinai a Gamble for Israel”, Los Angeles Times, 2011, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/aug/30/world/la-fg-israel-sinai-20110831)
This week, as many as 1,500 more Egyptian …at any time in three decades.

Escalates - military can’t check
Rabinovich 9-5 (Itamar, Professor of Middle Eastern History – Tel Aviv University, “Egypt’s New Role in Conflict”, 2011,  http://www.itamarrabinovich.tau.ac.il/publications/84-egypts-new-role-in-the-conflict.html)
A second challenge concerns Egypt. Israel's caution
AND
the prospect of a fresh crisis seems likely.

Sinai’s uniquely destabilizing - goes nuclear
Zitun 11 (Yoav, Staff Writer – YNet, “IDF General: Likelihood of Regional War Growing”, YNet, 9-5, http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4118220,00.html)
Senior IDF officer warns of 'radical Islamic winter'
AND
remarks were approved for publication by censorship officials.

Extinction
Beres 11 (Louis Rene, Professor of Political Science and International Law – Purdue University, “Israel, Anarchy, and Global Chaos”, Jerusalem Post, 8-18, http://postonpolitics.blogspot.com/2011/08/israel-anarchy-and-global-chaos.html)
In history, there is a powerful difference
AND
corollary effects would be correspondingly immediate and overwhelming.
Weak Egypt/Israeli military ties cause arms smuggling into Gaza
Husain 11 (Syed Rashid, Vice President – Al-Azzaz Est, “West Fearful of Governments with a Mandate”, Dawn World, 2-5, http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/05/west-fearful-of-governments-with-a-mandate.html)
Governments are wary of popular revolution in the
AND
economic and cultural, to enhance that peace.

Smuggling causes terrorism and escalating war
Almog 4 (Doron, Major General, Former Head of Israel’s Southern Command, and Visiting Military Fellow – Washington Institute for Near East Policy, “Tunnel-Vision in Gaza”, Middle East Quarterly, Summer, http://www.meforum.org/630/tunnel-vision-in-gaza)
The term "smuggling" does not do
AND
the border area or the Gaza Strip itself.

Terror goes nuclear - sparks Israeli retaliation and global nuclear war
Freilich 10 (Chuck, Senior Fellow – Belfer Center at Harvard University and Adjunct Professor – New York University, “The Armageddon Scenario: Israel and the Threat of Nuclear Terrorism”, Mideast Security and Policy Studies No. 84, http://www.biu.ac.il/Besa/MSPS84.pdf)
CHAPTER 2: THE THREAT TO ISRAEL  
The Middle East is a demographic, socio
AND
small dimensions and Israel's comparatively long coastal border.

~\~\

MB will scuttle the Israeli QIZ and participation in the Euro-Med zone - causes FDI outflows
Azarva 7 (Jeffrey, Research Assistant – American Enterprise Institute and Samuel Tadros, Egyptian Activist, “The Problem of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood”, AEI Online, November, http://www.aei.org/outlook/27174)
Economic considerations are also paramount to the equation
AND
, slated to come on line in 2010.

That disrupts shipping through the Suez - jacks global trade
Gilpin 11 (Raymond, Vice President and Director of the Center for Sustainable Economics – United States Institute for Peace, Ph.D. in Economics – Cambridge University, and Former Academic Chair for Defense Economics – Africa Center for Strategic Studies, “Is Egypt ‘Too Big to Fail’?”, 2-1, http://www.usip.org/publications/egypt-too-big-fail)
Riding on the wave of effective popular … solution to the Egyptian crisis.

Extinction
Pazner 8 (Michael J., Faculty – New York Institute of Finance, Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse, p. 137-138)
The rise in isolationism and protectionism will bring
AND
as the beginnings of a new world war. 

Euro-Med pullout collapses European energy diversification - Egypt’s key
BW 8 (Business Week - via Xinhua News, “EU, Egypt Sign Energy Cooperation Agreement”, 12-2, Lexis)
The European Union (EU) and Egypt
AND
the development of regional gas and electricity networks. 

German energy dependence forces alliances that escalate to global nuclear war
Karlin 9
Anatoly Karlin is a San Francisco based independent writer, political analyst, Editing Professional, and media critic. He is also the author of the blog Sublime Oblivion focusing on the Russia, geopolitics and future global trends. His articles have appeared in The Guardian PSJ and The Discovery Institute's Real Russia Project,  Sublime Strategic Report #10 – October 23, 2009 – available at: http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2009/10/23/ssr10-europe-black-continent/.
In addition to the manifold soft power tools
AND
deterrence power of nuclear weapons will fall dramatically.

Diversification’s key to Ukrainian stability
Cohen 9 (Ariel, Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies – Heritage Foundation, “Russia’s Gas War”, Washington Times, 1-13, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jan/13/russias-gas-war/)
The crisis is about more than gas,
AND
of energy and stand up to Russian bullying.

Global nuclear war
Kingston 9 (Brian, Norman Paterson School of International Affairs – CIFP, “Ukraine: A Risk Assessment Report”, February, http://www.carleton.ca/cifp/app/serve.php/1214.pdf)
Economics: Ukraine suffers catastrophic economic collapse during
AND
least the drawing in of many other countries.

Egyptian economic collapse tanks FDI
IMS 11 (International Media Support, “Marked change in Egyptian state media”, 2-17, http://www.i-m-s.dk/article/marked-change-egyptian-state-controlled-media)

- The transition phase in Egypt …. media exist would follow. 

Crushes U.S. leadership on clean tech
Peterson 10 (Bertil, Editor and Chief of Publications – American Chamber of Commerce Egypt, “Egypt as a Regional Hub for Value-Added Production, Services, and Export”, Executive Summary, http://www.amcham.org .eg/egypttradehub/EXECUTIVESUMMARY.asp)

AmCham Egypt has been at the forefront of
AND
that avail themselves within the new strategic partnership.

Extinction
Klarevas 9 (Louis, Professor at the Center for Global Affairs – New York University, “Securing American Primacy While Tackling Climate Change: Toward a National Strategy of Greengemony”, Huffington Post, 12-15, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/louis-klarevas/securing-american-primacy_b_393223.html)

By not addressing climate ….. potential foes in check.

Only U.S. IRF leadership can stabilize Burma
RefWorld 11 (“USCIRF Annual Report 2011 - Countries of Particular Concern: Burma”, 4-28, http://www.unhcr.org/refworld/country_USCIRFMMR_{4dbe90c5c,0.html)}

Religious freedom violations …. responsible investment in Burma.

It’ll implode - crushes ASEAN
Green 7 (Michael, Professor of International Relations –Georgetown University and Senior Adviser and Japan Chair – Center for Strategic and International Studies, and Derek Mitchell, Senior Fellow and Director for Asia Strategy – CSIS, “Asia's Forgotten Crisis Subtitle: A New Approach to Burma”, Foreign Affairs, November / December, Lexis)

The international community needs to act now to … concentrates its energies elsewhere.

Extinction
Rajaratnam 92 (S., Former Deputy Prime Minister – Singapore, “ASEAN: The Way Ahead” , 9-1, http://www.aseansec.org/13991.htm)

Should regionalism collapse, then ASEAN …. Hiroshima and Nagasaki. 

Instability causes Sino/India conflict
Dasgupta 7 (Swapan, Columnist, The Pioneer, "India Needs a Stable Burma," 9-29, http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnist1.asp?main_variable=Columnist&file_name=swapan%2Fswapan167.txt&writer=swapan)

Second, there is little doubt that any abrupt …. objective. The rest is humbug.

Extinction
Caldicott 2 (Helen, Founder – Physicians for Social Responsibility, The New Nuclear Danger: George W. Bush’s Military-Industrial Complex, p. x)

The use of Pakistani nuclear weapons …. the end of most life on earth.

MB radicals will shut down the Suez Canal - collapsing the European economy
Hilliker 11 (Joel, Columnist – The Trumpet, “Will the Muslim Brotherhood Close the Suez Canal?”, The Trumpet, 2-2,  http://www.thetrumpet.com/?q=7928.6537.0.0)

Almost immediately after angry Egyptians took to the
AND
using the canal to provoke a European power.

European economic collapse causes extinction via warming and global conflicts - and causes quick Russian attacks against Europe
Stokes 10 (Bruce, International Economics Columnist – National Journal, “Greek Tragedy Haunts Global Markets, Policies”, YaleGlobal, 3-17, http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/opinon/2010/03/137_62527.html)

To paraphrase the noted economist Woody Allen,
AND
articulate forcefully US interests in their crisis management.

Extinction
Elliot 7 (Jeffrey M., North Carolina Central University and Robert Reginald, California State University, San Bernandino, The Arms Control, Disarmament, and Military Security Dictionary, p. 19-20)

Escalation of War (15)
Increasing, enlarging, or intensifying the nature
AND
, 20; TOTAL. WAR. 32.

Independently - Suez closure causes US intervention and escalatory nuclear war
Nazemroaya 11 (Mahdi Darius, Research Associate – Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), “The Division of Egypt: Threats of US, Israeli, and NATO Military Intervention?”, 2-13,   http://www.setyoufreenews.com/2011/02/division-of-egypt-threats-of-us-israeli.html)

Recall the 1956 Invasion of Egypt? There
AND
global empire through militarism overseas and domestic militarization.

Perception of MB control causes gas price spikes and tanks the economy - aid solves
Lubbock 11 (Lubbock Avalanche-Journal Online, “Whose Side is Obama On?”, 1-29, http://lubbockonline.com/interact/blog-post/may/2011-01-29/whose-side-obama)

The Muslim Brotherhood and other Radical Islamic Terrorist
AND
restoration of relative peace in the Middle East.

Causes food price spikes
Dahlberg 97 (Kenneth A. – editor of Agriculture & Human Values – MLT Newsletter – originally published in  The Neighborhood Works – and in  Food Flight – Feb/March  page 14 – obtained via  http://www.michiganlandtrust.org/newslet2.htm)

What restructuring? Current agriculture (national and
AND
those few regions where studies have been done).

Kills half the planet
Brown 5 (Lester, President – Earth Policy Institute, , People and the Planet, “Falling Water Tables 'Could Hit Food Supply'”, 2-7, http://www.peopleandplanet.net/doc.php?id=2424)

Many Americans see terrorism as the principal threat
AND
the next meal that is the overriding concern."

Sparks wars that terminate in extinction
Klare 6 (Michael, Professor of Peace and World Security Studies – Hampshire College, “The Coming Resource Wars”, 3-11, http://www.waterconserve.org/shared/reader/welcome.aspx?linkid=53710&keybold=water%20 land%20conflict)

"As famine, disease, and weather
AND
will escape involvement in these forms of conflict.

No defense - U.S. ag key
Lugar 4 (Richard G., U.S. Senator – Indiana and Former Chair – Senate Foreign Relations Committee, “Plant Power”, Our Planet, 14(3), http://www.unep.org/ourplanet/imgversn/143/lugar.html)

In a world confronted by … survival of billions of people and the health of our planet. 

U.S. FDI to Egypt is critical to competitiveness
Peterson 10 (Bertil, Editor and Chief of Publications – American Chamber of Commerce Egypt, “Egypt as a Regional Hub for Value-Added Production, Services, and Export”, Executive Summary, http://www.amcham.org .eg/egypttradehub/EXECUTIVESUMMARY.asp)

AmCham Egypt has been at …. businesses to grab. 

Great power war
Baru 9 – Sanjaya Baru, Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School in Singapore, March 2009, Geopolitical Implications of the Current Global Financial Crisis, Strategic Analysis, Volume 33, Issue 2, pages 163 - 168

Hence, economic policies and performance do …. America remains to be seen.

US singling-out the Muslim Brotherhood is an act of racist Islamophobia. We’re a concrete way to reverse this.

Foutouh ‘11
(Abdel Moneim Abou el-Fotouh,
AND
/02/09/AR2011020905222.html)

We are mindful, however, as a
AND
Mubarak regime has violently responded to peaceful demonstrators. 

(  ) Yancy makes a sweeping claim about Whiteness – must be particular or their K is counter-productive.

Purcell ‘8
(L. Sebastian Purcell is a teaching fellow in the philosophy department at Boston College – Review of “What White Looks Like: African-American Philosophers on The Whiteness Question” – THIS IS THE YANCY BOOK THEY QUOTE – Essays in Philosophy – Volume 9, Issue 1 Philosophy of Disability Article 16 – http://commons.pacificu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1302&context=eip&sei-redir=1&referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2Furl%3Fsa%3Dt%26rct%3Dj%26q%3D%2522what%2520white%2520looks%2520like%253A%2520african-american%2520philosophers%2520on%2520the%2520whiteness%2522%26source%3Dweb%26cd%3D7%26ved%3D0CFUQFjAG%26url%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fcommons.pacificu.edu%252Fcgi%252Fviewcontent.cgi%253Farticle%253D1302%2526context%253Deip%26ei%3Dhe6rToCAOOTm0QHSgvG5Dw%26usg%3DAFQjCNEm_xgE02NBYh-C4vVwoI2hZuGexQ#search=%22what%20white%20looks%20like%3A%20african-american%20philosophers%20whiteness%22)
The second concern is more specifically philosophical in nature.
AND
recommendation for all interested in this matter.

(  ) The impact is reification of all their args

Andersen 3 – Margaret L. Andersen, Professor of Sociology and Women's Studies and Vice Provost for Academic Affairs at the University of Delaware, 2003, “Whitewashing Race: A Critical Perspective on Whiteness,” in White Out: The Continuing Significance of Racism, ed Doane & Bonilla-Silva, p. 30-32
Conceptually, one of the major problems in
AND
everything, it ends up meaning hardly anything.

(  ) Yancy’s scholarship reifies the Black-White dichotomy at the expense of other people of color – turning the whole arg

Purcell ‘8
(L. Sebastian Purcell is a teaching
AND
-american%20philosophers%20whiteness%22)

Through this review of the anthology I have
AND
Perhaps Outlaw’s concern should be more widely heard.

(  ) “Reification and root cause” Turn

a) They elevate whiteness to near all-pervasive force driving most oppression. Such conceptual expansion hides the actual practice of racism and makes breaking it down more difficult

Andersen 3 – Margaret L. Andersen,
AND
Bonilla-Silva, p. 30-32
Conceptually, one of the major problems in
AND
everything, it ends up meaning hardly anything.

b) The notion that whiteness and the State doom reformism ensues. Oppression goes up by ensuring their politics go nowhere
Andersen 3 – Margaret L. Andersen,
AND
Bonilla-Silva, p. 30-32
Even those who acknowledge the material basis of
AND
racial segregation and discrimination, this seems unlikely.

c) Political systems aren’t inevitably oppressive. Working within them is a better starting point
Sullivan 8 – Shannon Sullivan, Head of
AND
Philosophy, Vol. 44, No. 2

It is commonly acknowledged today, at least
AND
this need will not be effective in practice. 

Root cause args wrong – overdetermines and specificity first
Swanson ‘5
Jacinda Swanson is Assistant Professor of Political Science
AND
com/content/22/4/87
It is thus misleading to suggest that social
AND
range of cultural, economic and political practices. 

We epistemologically indict K’s of Action, the State, and Serial-Policy Failure. Those K’s also reify domination.

Chandler ‘10
(David Chandler is Professor of International Relations at the Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Westminster – Global Society, Vol. 24, No. 2, April, 2010 – http://www.davidchandler.org/pdf/journal_articles/Global%20Society%20-%20Chandler%20response.pdf)
The work of Foucault is not the subject of this paper.
AND
could be merely offering an apologia for them. 

They overdetermine – race isn’t the root cause of all violence – there is no such thing as root cause, only proximate causes
Scott D. Sagan – Department of Political Science, Stanford University – ACCIDENTAL WAR IN THEORY AND PRACTICE – 2000 – available via: www.sscnet.ucla.edu/polisci/faculty/trachtenberg/cv/sagan.doc

To make reasonable judgements in such matters it is essential
AND
 neither inevitable nor overdetermined during the Cold War. 

Reification turn  The call for a new method cements a certain need burden of proof – this reifies the entire notion of racist methodology.

CYNTHIA A. TYSON is an assistant professor in the School for Integrated Teaching and Learning and Language, Literature and Culture at the Ohio State University – Educational Researcher, Vol. 27, No. 9, pp. 21-22 – 1998 – available at J-Stor

In their piece, Scheurich and Young (1997) raise the
AND
dissected while racist epistemologies remain intact. 

Methods don't come first - method-focus ignores important insights of other perspectives.
Fearon and Wendt, Professor of Poli Sci at Stanford and Professor of IR at Ohio State,2002 (James and Alexander, Handbook of International Relations, ed. Carlsnaes, p.68)

It should be stressed that in advocating a pragmatic
AND
conversation should continue on all three levels.

(  ) Line-by-Line and technical skills good – vital for micro-movements to effectuate macro-change.

A story frames our point  

In 1999, student activism culminated in a meeting between protestors and the Greek Ministry of Education. That meeting was an incredible opportunity for radical reform – but the students failed because Greek curriculum had never taught them how confront systems of domination by using specific clash and line-by-line refutation.  

This contextualizes why we think our model of debate is so important.

Kontogiannopoulou-Polydorides, 2K
Georgia Kontogiannopoulou-Polydorides  Representative to the
AND
/v018/18.2polydorides.pdf)

Our analysis takes off from the position that
AND
terms advocated by leaders in the reform movement. 

Our “comparatively better” arg. State-based reformism can solve – Even if it can’t, the alternative of striving for abolition is comparatively worse. This assumes the world of co-optation

Saward ‘92
(Micheal, Royal Holloway and Bedford New College, U of London, Co-optive Politics and State Legitimacy p.)
Co-option should not be seen as a zero-sum game.
 AND
 within the decision- making process.  

Ceding politics is comparatively worse:

Bronner ‘4
Stephen Eric Bronner, Distinguished Professor of Political Science and a Member of the Graduate Faculty in Comparative Literature and German Studies at Rutgers University, 2004 (Reclaiming the Enlightenment: Toward a Politics of Radical Engagement, Published by Columbia University Press, ISBN 9780231126090, p. 151-153)
Enlightenment thinkers wished neither to abolish the state nor to
AND
world of direct democracy has been achieved.

If their arg is so anti-State that we can’t use fiat to rip-down the State, then that’s overly-pessimistic and silly. This specifically solves their slavery args.
James ‘9
Robin M. James, Assistant Professor in
AND
2009, Hypatia, available via Wiley online library
In these two instances of successful reappropriation of
AND
) can indeed bring down the master's house. 

Working from within the system can produce change. Solves their race args

James ‘9
Robin M. James, Assistant Professor in
AND
2009, Hypatia, available via Wiley online library
Norma Coates expresses here an ethical and aesthetic
AND
“sexy”—as mainstream/conventional discourse.

Anti-politics will collapse into authoritarianism and racism. 

Hogan ‘7
(Michael, Honorary Associate of Government and
AND
, August, p. 5-6)
The issues of ethnicity and concern for economic
AND
have infiltrated the institutions of democracy and capitalism.

Anti-politics causes racism and sexism – comparatively better to work within the State

Grossberg ‘92
(Lawrence, Professor of Communication at the University of Illinois, We Gotta Get Out Of This Place, p. 390-391)
BUT THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE LEFT COULD
AND
CAPACITY (AS WELL AS RESPONSIBILITY) TO FIGHT THEM

Their unconventional study via cultural pedagogy are not an effective “politics”. It cedes politics and reifies racism.

Todd Gitlin ‘5 formerly served as professor
AND
book/git01/git01_02.pdf
The thirst for consolation explains the rise of
AND 

popular culture as a surrogate for politics.   

Their epistemology accusations just reverse the same coin. This example confirms:

Cunningham ‘99
George K. Cunningham, professor in the
AND
AND QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH – AUG. 29, 1999
I have to respond to this often-
AND
even more convinced of the value of constructivism.

MB control spreads to Jordan
Bronner 11 (Ethan, Reporter – New York Times, “Israelis Wary of Uprising’s Aftermath”, Boston Globe, 1-31, http://articles.boston.com/2011-01-31/news/29336415_1_muslim-brotherhood-president-hosni-mubarak-peace-treaty)

But others noted that the best organized political
AND
with the Palestinians, officials and analysts said.

That forces Israel to annex the West Bank
Vincent 11 (Rob, Contributing Editor – Truth Provider, U.S. Army Veteran, MA in International Relations – University of Chicago, MBA – University of Findlay, BA in Russian and Eastern European Studies – University of Michigan, “Long Live the King”, Truth Provider, 8-1, http://www.truthprovider.com/page.php?pageID=157)
*Note – “J&S” = “Judea + Samaria District”, Israeli name for the West Bank

These unfolding events …. becomes the "least bad" option.

Extinction
Dale 11 (Colin, Political Commentator on Israeli Relations, 9-21, http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2011/Sep-21/149320-french-want-palestinians-to-drop-un-membership-bid.ashx#axzz1Z1W8B9cS)

Now the Israeli government is threatening to annex
AND
Council ignores this appalling reality at its peril.

MB tanks US/Jordan relations
Tasopoulos 8 (Ilias, Centre for Mediterranean, Middle East and Islamic Studies and PhD. Candidate – University of Peloponnese, et al., “What If The Muslim Brotherhood Rose to Power?”, Middle East Bulletin, January, Issue 9, http://www.idis.gr/GR/Ekdoseis/newsletters/MiddleEastBulletin09.pdf)

Coming to power the Brotherhood will have to
AND
again turn to the Gulf for financial support.

That undermines stable Iraq withdrawal - risks escalation
Terrill 8 (W. Andrew, Professor of National Security Affairs – Strategic Studies Institute and Former Middle East Analyst – Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, “Jordanian National Security and the Future of Middle East Stability”, January, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub838.pdf)

1. When the United States withdraws from
   AND
   in most cases, be a serious mistake.

Extinction
Gardner 7 (Hall, Professor and Chair of the International Affairs Department – American University of Paris, Averting Global War, p. 210-217)

Or, by contrast, should the United
AND
and antistate actors to attack large naval vessels.

They’ll collapse Jordan - spills over to Saudi Arabia
Morris 5 (Mary E., Analyst and Middle East Specialist – RAND Corporation, New Political Realities and the Gulf: Egypt, Syria, and Jordan, p. 35-37)

However, the potential exists for a violent … current problems of the Middle East.

Causes mega-oil shocks
Luft 11 (Gal, Executive Director – Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, “What if Saudi Arabia Erupts?”, Politico, 2-3, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0211/48698.html)

Egypt is relevant to the oil market because
AND
economy from high oil prices. 

Extinction
Riddoch 4 (Dr. Malcolm, Faculty of Communications and Creative Industries – Edith Cowan University, Energy  Bulletin, 6-18, http://www.energybulletin.net/node/729)

There are lots of recent 2004 reports speculating
AND
nuclear war and its companions famine and pestilence.  

Balkan Islamic extremism accelerating - causes conflict that goes global
Michaletos 9-29 (Ionnis, Coordinator of the Southeastern European Office & Regional Editor – World Security Network Foundation, Founding Partner – FMN Global Intelligence Company, Founding Partner – Radical Islam Monitor Southeastern Europe, “Updates on Balkan Islamic Extremism”, International Analyst Network, 2011, http://www.analyst-network.com/article.php?art_id=3851)

According to information by various international security services
AND
simmering just below the surface of political correct haziness

It’s escalating - defense doesn’t apply
Nahzi 10 (Fron, Writer Specializing in International Development, “Growing Radicalism in the Balkan Region”, Huffington Post, 7-7, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/fron-nahzi/growing-radicalism-in-the_b_636972.html)

Increasing radicalism threatens stability in the Balkans.
AND
make the region fertile ground for radical recruits.

Draws in great powers - causes world war
Paris 2 (Roland, Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs – University of Colorado, “Kosovo and the Metaphor War”, Political Science Quarterly, 117(3), Fall, Proquest)

At this early stage in the Kosovo crisis
AND
Balkan powderkeg, before it is too late. 

Global nuclear war
CDH 99 (Chicago Daily Herald, 5-9, Lexis)

We hear the grim rationale for sending in
AND
in nuclear war and incalculable self-destruction.

Instability disrupts energy corridors to Europe - tanks its economy
Tsereteli 8 (Mamuka, Assistant Professor – School of International Service at American University, “Economic and Energy Security: Connecting Europe and the Black Sea-Caspian Region”, Silk Road Paper, March, http://georgiandaily.com/repository/M%20Tsereteli%20-%20SAIS%20-03-08.pdf)

Instability in Europe’s immediate neighborhood poses a security
AND
, Central Asia, and the Far East. 

Energy disruption causes European hyper-nationalism - sparks global nuclear war
Karlin 9
Anatoly Karlin is a San Francisco based independent writer, political analyst, Editing Professional, and media critic. He is also the author of the blog Sublime Oblivion focusing on the Russia, geopolitics and future global trends. His articles have appeared in The Guardian PSJ and The Discovery Institute's Real Russia Project,  Sublime Strategic Report #10 – October 23, 2009 – available at: http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2009/10/23/ssr10-europe-black-continent/. 

European Regions Germany has a robust industrial ecosystem
AND
deterrence power of nuclear weapons will fall dramatically.

European economic collapse causes extinction via global collapse, warming, and global conflicts
Stokes 10 (Bruce, International Economics Columnist – National Journal, “Greek Tragedy Haunts Global Markets, Policies”, YaleGlobal, 3-17, http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/opinon/2010/03/137_62527.html)

To paraphrase the noted economist Woody Allen,
AND
articulate forcefully US interests in their crisis management.

Even without escalation - U.S. gets drawn into the Balkans - collapses readiness and invites global aggression
Spencer 00 (Jack, Policy Analyst – Heritage Foundation, “The Facts About Military Readiness”, 9-15, http://www.heritage.org/Research/MissileDefense/BG1394.cfm)

Military readiness is vital because declines in … words, they are not ready.

Extinction
Barnett 11 (Thomas P.M., Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in Warfare Analysis – U.S. Naval War College, Former Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation – Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads”, World Politics Review, 3-7, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads)

It is worth first examining the larger picture
AND
the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding. 

U.S. policy toward Egypt is incoherent - we’re reaching out to the MB, but simultaneously refusing full engagement
Brown 11 (Nathan, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs – George Washington University, “What Does the U.S. Want to Talk to the Brotherhood About?”, The National Interest, 8-9, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/what-does-the-us-want-talk-the-brotherhood-about-5721)

In a confusing set of statements at the
AND
as normal and the United States backed off.

This spooks allies and sends a broad signal of appeasement - coupling MB talks with investments in democracy is key to advance a clear strategy
Satloff 11 (Dr. Robert, Executive Director and Howard P. Berkowitz Chair in U.S. Middle East Policy – Washington Institute for Near East Policy, “Egypt, U.S. Strategy, and Engaging the Muslim Brotherhood”, Washington Institute Policy Alert, 6-30, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1662)

Secretary of State Clinton confirmed today that the
AND
to the MB as fumbling in the dark.

The plan codifies nonviolence as the litmus test for U.S. engagement - MB’s key
Etzioni 11 (Amitai, University Professor and Professor of International Relations – The George Washington University and Director – Institute for Communitarian Policy Studies, “Toward a Nonviolent, Pluralistic Middle East”, Middle East Quarterly, Fall, XVIII(4), http://www.meforum.org/3050/nonviolent-pluralistic-middle-east)

Conclusion
Aside from various pragmatic reasons …. we determine which qualify?

It sets clear red lines
Hamid 11 (Shadi, Director of Research – Brookings Doha Center and Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “Revolution in Cairo”, PBS Interview, 3-4, http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/revolution-in-cairo/interviews/shadi-hamid.html#5)

Do you think the United States is actually …. interests going forward. ...

Nonviolence as a redline is key to credible and legitimate foreign policy
Etzioni 11 (Amitai, University Professor and Professor of International Relations – The George Washington University and Director – Institute for Communitarian Policy Studies, “Toward a Nonviolent, Pluralistic Middle East”, Middle East Quarterly, Fall, XVIII(4), http://www.meforum.org/3050/nonviolent-pluralistic-middle-east)

Consistency
One major merit of the nonviolent … international community.

Egypt’s a test case
Elshinnawi 10 (Mohamed, Foreign Affairs Writer – VOA, “Egypt Key to Proving Obama's Commitment to Middle East Democracy”, Voice of America News, 6-30, http://www.voanews.com/english/news/special-reports/american-life/Egypt-Key-to-Proving-Obamas-Commitment-to-Middle-East-Democracy.html)

There has been widespread public agreement in the
AND
the region are still a work in progress.

Legitimacy’s key to effective foreign policy - solves domestic isolationism that collapses hard power and a Russia/China alliance
Etzioni 5 (Amitai, University Professor and Professor of International Relations – The George Washington University and Director – Institute for Communitarian Policy Studies, “Genocide Prevention in the New Global Architecture”, The British Journal of Politics & International Relations, 4(7), November, Wiley Online Library)

A digression on the importance of …. global architecture is depicted.

Russia/China balancing causes extinction
Roberts 7 (Paul Craig, Senior Research Fellow – Hoover Institution, Stanford University and Chair in Political Economy – Center for Strategic and International Studies, “US Hegemony Spawns Russian-Chinese Military Alliance”, http://www.lewrockwell.com/roberts/roberts218.html)

This week the Russian and Chinese militaries are
AND
China would establish the hegemony of the cockroach.

Domestic isolationism causes great power nuclear war
Mandelbaum 8 (Michael, Professor of Foreign Policy – Johns Hopkins University, The Case for Goliath: How America Acts as the World’s Government in the Twenty-First Century, p. 224)

If closer scrutiny does turn the public against
AND
, in large numbers, of nuclear weapons.

Legitimate leadership solves warming
Connect 10 (Connect U.S. Fund, “Current Priority Issues”, http://www.connectusfund.org/issues)

In today’s interdependent world, the United States
AND
role of the United States in the world. 

Extinction
Tickell 8 (Oliver, Climate Researcher and Author – Kyoto2, “On a Planet 4C Hotter, All We Can Prepare For is Extinction”, The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange)

We need to get prepared for four degrees
AND
degenerated into a squabble over national emission rights.

Russia/China relations cause a Russian grab of the Kurile Islands
Bakshi 00 (Jyotsna, Research Fellow – Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, “Russia-China Military-Technical Cooperation:Implications For India”, July, http://www.idsa-india.org/an-jul-100.html) 

Moreover, there has been a pressing need
AND
Kurile Islands in the Asia-Pacific region.

Global nuclear war
Clarke 9 – Bruce Clarke Defense Dept. Examiner 10-15-2009 http://www.examiner.com/x-17537-Defense-Dept-Examiner~y2009m10d15-Supposed-change-in-Russian-nuclear-doctrine

Recent news headlines have touted a supposed change
AND
is clear  any border incursion risks all.

MB takeover collapses Pakistan - causes Afghan instability
Bajoria 11 (Jayshree, Senior Staff Writer – CFR, “Will Pakistan Follow Egypt's Example?”, Council on Foreign Relations Analysis Brief, 2-8, http://www.cfr.org/pakistan/pakistan-follow-egypts-example/p24038)

Like Egypt, Pakistan is an important strategic
AND
give confidence to other Islamists, says Markey.

It’s escalating - collapses Afghanistan
Maginnis 8-18 (Robert, Retired Army lieutenant Colonel and National Security Analyst, “Muslim World More Anti-American Than Ever”, Human Events, 2011, http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=45588)

Third, Pakistan, an erstwhile ally armed
AND
, and assume tougher political and military policies.

Causes Russian and Chinese global aggression
Weinstein 4 (Dr. Michael A., Power and Interest News Report, 11-12, http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_printable&report_id=235&language_id=1)

The persistence of insurgencies in Afghanistan and Iraq
AND
crisis or a burst of ultra-nationalism. 

Russian aggression causes global nuclear war
Blank 99 (Steven, Professor of Research – Strategic Studies Institute of US Army War College, Oil and Geopolitics in the Caspian Region, p. 31-32)

The regional structure of political force does little
AND
has willing proxies capable of settling the situation.

So does China
Walton 7 (C. Dale, Lecturer in International Relations and Strategic Studies – University of Reading, Geopolitics and the Great Powers in the 21st Century, p. 49)

Obviously, it is of vital importance to
AND
is not marked by close great power alliances.

Independently - MB control causes U.S. strikes - sparks nuclear World War III
McBride 7 (Daniel R., Montreal-Based Writer, “From the Torching of the Louvain to Bomber Harris”, Moderate Observer, 8-1, http://moderate.wordpress.com/2007/08/01/lessons-from-bomber-harris-if-the-us-strikes-pakistan/)

One can imagine Musharraf is desperate to remove
AND
missiles), and even India, within hours.

U.S. IRF cred’s key to stability in Belarus
Grieboski 11 (Joseph K., Founder and Chair – The Institute on Religion and Public Policy, “U.S. Foreign Policy and International Religious Expression”, CQ Congressional Testimony, 6-3, Lexis)

Rejection of religious freedom also places a prodigious
AND
an Act and religious liberty as an issue.

It’s on the brink - U.S.’s key
IRPP 11 (Institute on Religion & Public Policy, “Belarus: 2011 The Institute Country Conditions Report”, 7-27, http://religionandpolicy.org/cms/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=7013&Itemid=265)

(1) The state of religious freedom
AND
involvement creates a dire situation for religious minorities.

Belarussian instability escalates - spills over to Poland - draws in the U.S., Russia, and goes nuclear - and if it doesn’t, shatters NATO guarantees
Carpenter 97 (Ted Galen, Vice President for Defense Policy – Cato Institute and Andrew Stone, “NATO Expansion Flashpoint No. 1: The Border between Poland and Belarus”, Cato Institute Foreign Policy Briefing No. 44, 9-16, http://www.cato.org/pubs/fpbriefs/fpb044.pdf)

The Powder Keg on the Polish-Belarusian Border
Admitting Poland to NATO involves two related dangers
AND
to the security interests of the American people.

Global nuclear war
Snegirev 99 (Vladimir, Editor – Metro, What The Papers Say, 6-25, Lexis)

But how can we respond? Our defense
AND
promoted by the internal situation in our country.

NATO commitments to Poland solve global conflict - especially in Taiwan
Mitchell 10 (A. Wess, President – Center for European Policy Analysis, and Robert Kron, Research Associate – CEPA, “NATO Must Reassure Nervous Allies”, RealClearWorld, 3-1, http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/ 2010/03/01/nato_must_reassure_nervous_allies_98828.html?utm_source=emailalerts&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Russia)

Second, insecure allies are less likely to
AND
will alleviate concerns of a rising Russian threat.

Global nuclear war
Hunkovic 9 (Lee J, American Military University, “The Chinese-Taiwanese Conflict: Possible Futures of a Confrontation between China, Taiwan and the United States of America”, http://www.lamp-method.org/eCommons/ Hunkovic.pdf)

A war between China, Taiwan and the
AND
countries will not be considered in this study.

U.S. draw-in collapses readiness and invites global aggression
Spencer 00 (Jack, Policy Analyst – Heritage Foundation, “The Facts About Military Readiness”, 9-15, http://www.heritage.org/Research/MissileDefense/BG1394.cfm)

Military readiness is vital because …. words, they are not ready.

Extinction
Barnett 11 (Thomas P.M., Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in Warfare Analysis – U.S. Naval War College, Former Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation – Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads”, World Politics Review, 3-7, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads)

It is worth first examining the larger picture
AND
the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding. 

MB will bash Israel and tank relations - U.S. engagement solves
Duss 11 (Matthew, Policy Analyst and Director of Middle East Progress – Center for American Progress and MA in Middle East Studies – University of Washington, “Are We Serious About A Democratic Egypt?”, ThinkProgress Security, 2-4, http://thinkprogress.org/security/2011/02/04/176481/are-we-serious-about-a-democratic-egypt/)

I agree that U.S. has
AND
We should start getting used to that idea.

Egypt/Israeli relations will collapse - SCAF can’t check
Kurtzer 11 (Daniel, Professor of Middle East Policy – Princeton University and Former U.S. Ambassador to Egypt and Israel, “Is the Egyptian-Israeli Relationship Over?”, Foreign Affairs, 9-18, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/ articles/68275/daniel-c-kurtzer/is-the-egyptian-israeli-relationship-over?page=show#)

Two weeks ago, a mob of angry
AND
people, and stabilizing Egypt's regional security situation.

Weak Egypt/Israeli relations undermine Gulf containment of Iran and tank EU/Israeli relations
Ben-Meir 10-13 (Alon, Professor of International Relations – Center for Global Affairs, New York University, and Amr Yossef, Post-Doctoral Fellow – Taub Center for Israel Studies, New York University, “Egypt and Israel: Within the Realm of Possibilities”, Huffington Post, 2011, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alon-benmeir/egypt-and-israel-within-t_b_1009234.html)

Over the past few weeks, Egypt and
AND
the tension between Israel and the European Union.

Gulf containment checks Iranian miscalc - goes nuclear
Ben-Meir 7 (Alon Ben-Meir, Professor of International Relations at the Center for Global Affairs – New York University, “Ending Iranian Defiance”, UPI, 2-6-2007, Lexis)

That Iran stands today able to challenge or
AND
severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program.

Adventurism spikes energy prices - causes Japan/China conflict
Hazlett 6 – Sean Patrick Hazlett – Kennedy School of Government Policy Analysis Exercise – I suppose this was Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master in Public Policy, but it was with oversight by Faculty Advisor Dr. Ashton B. Carter and was specifically prepared for Ambassador R. Nicholas Burns Under Secretary for Political Affairs, United States Department of State – PLAN B FOR PERSIA – April 4, 2006 – http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/hazlett_plan_b_for_persia_report_april2006.pdf

Iranian adventurism emboldened by Iran’s possession of a
AND
important role on events in the Gulf region. 

Goes nuclear
Moore 6 – Scott Moore, Undergraduate Research Assistant, East Asia Nonproliferation Program, CNS, 10-18, “Nuclear Conflict in the 21st Century: Reviewing the Chinese Nuclear Threat,” NTI, http://www.nti.org/e_research/ e3_80.html

China's Asian Rival: A Resurgent Japan The
AND
Sino-American relations in the nuclear context. 

EU/Israeli relations solve WMD conflict
Lesser 8 (Dr. Ian O., Senior Transatlantic Fellow – German Marshall Fund of the United States, “Europe and Israel”, CQ Congressional Testimony, 7-9, Lexis)

Fourth, changing security concerns underscore and encourage
AND
help guarantee a wider Arab-Israeli disengagement.

EU ties stop Israeli strikes on Iran
Ackerman 8 (Gary L., Chair – Subcommittee on Middle East and South Asia, “Europe and Israel”, CQ Congressional Testimony, 7-9, Lexis)

Why is it our problem? That might
AND
more tangible commitments to stopping Iran's nuclear ambitions.

They’re coming and escalate
Seale 10-14 (Patrick, British Journalist Specializing in Middle East Affairs, “Will Israel Bomb Iran Without Notifying The US?”, Gulf News, 2011, http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/will-israel-bomb-iran-without-notifying-the-us-1.891422)

Reports of these discussions have caused … dangerous times in the Middle East.

Extinction
Morgan 9 (Dennis Ray, Professor of Current Affairs – Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, South Korea, “World on Fire: Two Scenarios of the Destruction of Human Civilization and Possible Extinction of the Human Race”, Futures, 41(1), p. 685-686)

In a remarkable website on nuclear war,
AND
Russia and possibly on China as well. 11

MB control spikes Chinese threat perceptions - they fear transmission belts to Xinjiang
Weitz 9-12 (Richard, Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis – Hudson Institute, “How China Sees the Middle East”, The Diplomat, 2011, http://the-diplomat.com/china-power/2011/09/06/how-china-sees-middle-east/)

So what might happen in the future?
AND
world oil and other commodity prices unnaturally elevated.

It’s escalating
Zenn 9-26 (Jacob, International Security Consultant and Graduate – Georgetown University Law Center’s Global Law Scholars Program and the Johns Hopkins-Nanjing University Center for Chinese and American Studies, “Violence Escalates in China’s Xinjiang Province”, Combating Terrorism Center, 2011, http://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/violence-escalates-in-china%E2%80%99s-xinjiang-province)

In July 2011, two violent incidents in … its “all weather friend.”[10]

Causes CCP lash out - kills billions
Rexing 5 (San, Staff – Epoch Times, The CCP’s Last Ditch Gamble: Biological and Nuclear War, 8-5, http://english.epochtimes.com/news/5-8-5/30975.html)

Since the Party’s life is “above all
AND
billion people hostage and gamble with their lives. 

Uighur rise causes Taiwanese independence
Klintworth 94 (Gary, Former Senior Researcher – Northeast Asia Project, Australian Journal of International Affairs, November, p. 219)

China also has many problems, not least
AND
the greatest risk to regional and global security.

Global secession
Carlson 5 (Allen, Professor of Government – Cornell University, Unifying China, Integrating With The World: Securing Chinese Sovereignty in the Reform Era, p. 128)

Lacer in the decade, in the months
AND
, Macao also have this right to secession?”

Global nuclear war
Shehadi 93 (Kamal, Research Associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, December, Ethnic Self Determination and the Break Up of States, p. 81)

This paper has argued that self-determination
AND
conflicts will erupt over national minorities and borders.

China will push for bases in Pakistan
Kucera 10-25 (Joshua, Central Asia Specialist – Jane’s Defense Weekly, “China Seeking Counter-Uighur Military Bases In Pakistan?”, EurasiaNet, 2011, http://www.eurasianet.org/node/64379)

In its effort to combat separatist Uighur groups
AND
described as the Turkistani Islamic Party (TIP).

That causes chain-gang alliances that spark World War III
Collins 10 (Steven M., Historical Researcher, Public Management – University of Minnesota and Member – National Epigraphic Society, “China To Build Military Bases In Pakistan And Elsewhere?”, 1-31,  http://stevenmcollins.com/WordPress/?p=1628)

An alert reader of this website tipped me
AND
pass (Isaiah 41:21-26).

They’ll crack down on Tibet
Davis 8 (Elizabeth Van Wie, Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, “Uyghur Muslim Ethnic Separatism in Xinjiang, China”, January)

A January 2007 Chinese raid on …. Xinjiang in September 1949. 

Extinction
Dekhang 98 (Tsultrim, Executive Head of the EDD and Environmental Studies –Yale University, “Nuclear Weapons on the Tibetan Plateau, http://www.tibet.com/Eco/Green98/chap6.html)

The Tibetan Plateau has been …. all other sentient beings. 

US/Indian relations are unsustainable because they lack ideational foundation - democracy co-op’s key
Twining 11 (Daniel, Senior Fellow for Asia – German Marshall Fund of the United States and Richard Fontaine, Senior Fellow – Center for a New American Security, “The Ties that Bind? U.S.—Indian Values-based Cooperation”, Washington Quarterly, Spring, http://www.twq.com/11spring/docs/11spring_Twining_Fontaine.pdf)

Strategically, the key question is whether India
AND
India in world affairs is a strategic imperative.

Plan drives US/Indian alignment - Egypt’s a test case
Twining 11 (Daniel, Senior Fellow for Asia – German Marshall Fund of the United States and Richard Fontaine, Senior Fellow – Center for a New American Security, “The Ties that Bind? U.S.—Indian Values-based Cooperation”, Washington Quarterly, Spring, http://www.twq.com/11spring/docs/11spring_Twining_Fontaine.pdf)

But unlike areas such as …other countries like Afghanistan and Eygpt. 17

Egypt, India, and the MB say “yes”
TI 11 (Times of India, “Muslim Brotherhood Seeks India Help For Polls In Egypt”, 2-28, http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2011-02-28/india/28641172_1_egypt-elections-post-mubarak-muslim-brotherhood)

The Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's Islamic party,
AND
, which were negligible in the Mubarak years.

Deepening relations is key
Auslin 11 (Michael, Resident Scholar in Asia Studies and Director of Japan Studies – American Enterprise Institute, “U.S.-India: Partnership of the Future”, Wall Street Journal, 6-1, http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2011/06/01/us-india_partnership_of_the_future_99538.html)

Yet my nearly three weeks of discussions with
AND
S. aid for development and public health.

Strategic partnership solves the economy, warming, and global nuclear and bio war
Chandra 11 (Naresh, Chair – India's National Security Advisory Board and Former Indian Ambassador to the United States, et al., “The United States and India: A Shared Strategic Future”, September, p. 3-6)

India is an indispensable partner for the United
AND
power that serves Asia so well is preserved.

Warming causes extinction
Cummins 10 (Ronnie, International Director – Organic Consumers Association and Will Allen, Advisor – Organic Consumers Association, “Climate Catastrophe: Surviving the 21st Century”, 2-14, http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/02/14-6)

The hour is late. Leading climate scientists
AND
appear determined to maintain "business as usual."

Burma will prolif
Chandra 11 (Naresh, Chair – India's National Security Advisory Board and Former Indian Ambassador to the United States, et al., “The United States and India: A Shared Strategic Future”, September, p. 7-8)

China has chosen episodically to ignore global nonproliferation
AND
government in Naypyidaw are presently murky at best.

Nuclear great power conflict
Kurlantzick 11 (Joshua, Fellow for Southeast Asia – Council on Foreign Relations, “Myanmar: Sources of Instability and Potential for U.S.-China Cooperation”, 9-23, http://www.cfr.org/china/managing-instability-chinas-periphery/p25838)

The Challenges from Myanmar
Although the dangers to regional and international stability
AND
of a regime-controlled border guard force.

Party training’s key to Indian access to Egyptian energy
Twining 11 (Daniel, Senior Fellow for Asia – German Marshall Fund of the United States and Richard Fontaine, Senior Fellow – Center for a New American Security, “The Ties that Bind? U.S.—Indian Values-based Cooperation”, Washington Quarterly, Spring, http://www.twq.com/11spring/docs/11spring_Twining_Fontaine.pdf)

Institution-Building in the Middle East
The changes roiling the Middle East present a
AND
, and more prosperous trade and investment partners.

U.S. coordination’s crucial - avoids duplication
Latif 11 (S. Amer, Visiting Fellow and Wadhwani Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies – Center for Strategic and International Studies, “Talking Over the Arab Spring”, CSIS Blog, 7-12, http://csis.org/publication/talking-over-arab-spring)

As Washington has struggled to deal … promote coordination and avoid duplication.

Plan expands Indian diplomacy - ensures Gulf oil flows
Chandra 11 (Naresh, Chair – India's National Security Advisory Board and Former Indian Ambassador to the United States, et al., “The United States and India: A Shared Strategic Future”, September, p. 26-27)

West Asia, as Indians call it, and North Africa … officials from both governments.

Gulf’s key - energy shortages are likely - causes great power conflict and disrupts Indian littoral waters
Phillips 11 (Andrew, Ph.D. and Research Fellow in International Relations – Australian National University, “India-China Energy Race Could Stoke Conflict, But It Needn’t”, First Post, 5-16, http://www.firstpost.com/world/chindia-energy-race-10157.html)

A revolution in energy consumption is sweeping Asia
AND
systemic threat to Asia’s continuing peace and prosperity.

That collapses global trade
Erickson 10 (Andrew S., China Maritime Studies Institute – U.S. Naval War College, and Walter C. Ladwig III, Ph.D. in International Relations – University of Oxford, “Diego Garcia and the United States’ Emerging Indian Ocean Strategy”, Asian Security, 6(3), p. 216-217)

In terms of global trade, the Indian
AND
the countries of the immediate littoral and beyond.

Extinction
Pazner 8 (Michael J., Faculty – New York Institute of Finance, Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse, p. 137-138)

The rise in isolationism and protectionism will bring
AND
as the beginnings of a new world war. 

Independently - Asian great power conflict causes extinction
Caldicott 2 (Helen, Founder – Physicians for Social Responsibility, The New Nuclear Danger: George W. Bush’s Military-Industrial Complex, p. x)

The use of Pakistani nuclear weapons could trigger
AND
meaning the end of most life on earth.

Shortages tanks the Indian economy
Kanuk 7 (Alan R., Vice President of Special Operations – BTI Technology, Capital Markets of India: An Investor's Guide, p. 15)

Energy Requirements The fast-growing economy is
AND
to continue to grow at its current pace.

Causes Indo/Pak nuclear war - goes global
Bouton 10 (Marshall M., President – Chicago Council on Global Affairs, “America’s Interests in India”, CNAS Working Paper, October, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_USInterestsinIndia_ Bouton.pdf)

In South Asia, the most immediately compelling
AND
greater potential for unchecked interstate and civil conflict.

Extinction
Robock 10 – Alan, Professor of Climatology at Rutgers University and Associate Director of the Center for Environmental Prediction and Owen Brian Toon, chair of the department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at the University of Colorado at Boulder and a fellow of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, fellow of the American Meteorological Society and the American Geophysical Union, “Local War, Global Suffering,” Scientific American, January, http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockToonSciAmJan2010.pdf

Abolition: The Only Policy
People have several incorrect
AND
of conflict have the potential to erupt suddenly.

Butler criticisms of vulnerability and grievability offer no workable politics and are net counter-productive 

 Paul 

Smith 

teaches in the Cultural Studies doctoral program at George Mason University – symploke 12.1-2 (200

4

) 254-260 – Project Muse 

In that light, 

the opening words of Precarious Life

— 

AND 

specific historical features of capitalism. 

Butler’s criticism cannot succeed – it simply watered-down liberalism 

 Paul 

Smith 

teaches in the Cultural Studies doctoral program at George Mason University – symploke 12.1-2 (200

4

) 254-260 – Project Muse 

What all this amounts to, as I'm sure many other commentators have 

AND 

 liberalism were its proper and uncontested location.

Butler’s politics are dangerous – they create a space for the far-right to freely oppress 

 Martha 

Nussbaum 

is professor of law and philosophy at the University of Chicago – New Republic – FEBRUARY 22 19

99

 – available on lexis 

Suppose we grant Butler her

 most interesting 

claims

 up to this point: 

AND 

Why, then, aren't they daring and good? === Even if our truth claims COULD BE fallible, focusing on the consequences of the plan is key to effective policies === 

Sil 11 

 (Rudra, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania where he holds the Janice and Julian Bers Chair in the Social Sciences, “De-Centering, Not Discarding, the ‘‘Isms’’: Some Friendly Amendments,” International Studies Quarterly (2011) 55, 481–485) 

Lake is right to note that inter-paradigm debates frequently reflect 

AND 

that characterized the social sciences at their birth (Calhoun 2009).

U.S. IRF leadership’s key to stability in Sri Lanka

Philpott 11

 (Daniel, Professor of Political Science – University of Notre Dame, “Afghanistan: International Religious Freedom and U.S. Foreign Policy”, Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs – Case Study Series, May, http://repository.berkleycenter.georgetown.edu/110811Afghanistan[FINAL].pdf) 

Debating the Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy 

A major goal of U.S. intervention was to facilitate the development of 

AND 

it may be 

a matter of 

life or death

. === It’s escalating === 

EF 11

 (Evangelical Fellowship of Canada, “Religious Freedom Internationally – Sri Lanka”, http://www.evangelicalfellowship.ca/page.aspx?pid=690) 

Sri Lanka 

Sri Lanka is a tropical island in the Indian Ocean located 

AND 

and act violently against religious minorities. === Causes civil war === 

Hogg 11

 (Charu Lata, Associate Fellow – Asia Programme at Chatham House and Asia Manager – Child Soldiers International, Graduate – London School of Economics, and International Journalist, “Sri Lanka: Prospects for 

 Reform and Reconciliation”, Chatam House Report, October, http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/>>http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/ 1011pp_srilanka.pdf) *Note – “LTTE” = Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, Sri Lankan Terrorists 

The United States, the EU and Japan have been diffident 

AND 

power to minorities is real, and meaningful. === That kills billions, causes great power nuclear war, and collapses trade === 

Anderson 11

 (Dr. David A., Professor of Strategic Studies and Chair of Joint, Interagency, and Multinational Operations – U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, and Anton Wijeyesekera, Major and Armor Officer – Sri Lanka Army and Senior Instructor – Sri Lanka Military Academy, “U.S. Naval Basing in Sri Lanka?”, Small Wars Journal, 10-15, http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/us-naval-basing-in-sri-lanka) 

As a prominent place for naval harboring and maritime 

AND 

interest in Sri Lanka posed by its geographic advantage? === Trade solves extinction === 

Pazner 8

 (Michael J., Faculty – New York Institute of Finance, Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse, p. 137-138) 

The rise in

 isolationism and 

protectionism will bring

 about 

AND 

 Western societies 

as the beginnings of a new 

world war === Collapses the Indian economy === 

Orland 8

 (Brian, Research Intern – Strategic Foresight Group (Mumbai), “India’s Sri Lanka Policy: Towards Economic Engagement”, IPCS Research Papers, April, http://www.ipcs.org/pdf_file/issue/1445888596RP16-Brian-SriLanka.pdf>>http://www.ipcs.org/pdf_file/issue/1445888596RP16-Brian-SriLanka.pdf) 

India’s Strategic Interests in Sri Lanka 

After the Cold War, India’s interests in Sri 

AND 

as strategically important in the regional environment. 9 === Causes Indo/Pak nuclear war - goes global === 

Bouton 10

 (Marshall M., President – Chicago Council on Global Affairs, “America’s Interests in India”, CNAS Working Paper, October, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_USInterestsinIndia_>>http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_USInterestsinIndia_ Bouton.pdf) 

In South Asia, the most immediately compelling U.S. 

AND 

unchecked interstate

 and civil 

conflict

. === No defense assumes this scenario === 

Harrison 93

 (Selig, Senior Scholar – Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and Director of the Asia Program – Center for International Policy and Geoffrey Kemp, Director – Carnegie Endowment Study Group on US-India Relations, India & America After the Cold War, p. 29) 

The United States provided substantial economic aid to 

AND 

war that

 could 

escalate to the nuclear level

.

SCAF is sustainable - won’t step down 

Ottaway 11-3-11 

 (Marina, Senior Associate at Carnegie’s Middle East program, “Egypt’s Democracy: Between the Military, Islamists, and Illiberal Democrats,” 11-3-11, http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/11/03/egypt-s-democracy-between-military-islamists-and-illiberal-democrats/6r3l?solr_hilite=SCAF#) 

 Second, 

while the SCAF does not want to replace a 

AND 

 will have gotten used to exercising power in the spotlight.  

US/SCAF relations are tanking 

Klapper 11 

 (Bradley, Writer – Associated Press, “US Presses Wary Ally Egypt on Israel, Democracy,” 9-28-11, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44703663/ns/politics/t/us-presses-wary-ally-egypt-israel-democracy/#.TpjvUN4r2so) 

After a meeting with the Egyptian foreign minister, Secretary of 

AND 

example for a Middle East that is still largely in revolt. 

That tanks U.S. regional influence - causes nuclear war 

Aly 6 (Abdel Monem Said, Director – Center for Political and Strategic Studies (Cairo) and Visiting Fellow for Middle East Policy – Brookings Institution, “An Ambivalent: The Future of U.S.-Egyptian Relations”, Analysis Paper, 6, January, http://www.brookings.edu/fp/saban/analysis/abdelmonem20060131.pdf) 

U.S.-Egyptian relations

 can be described as “strategic.” 

AND 

 extent to which the alliance has become indispensable for both sides. 

Even weak relations with SCAF undermine US/Turkish ties 

Schenker 11 

 (David, Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, “Egypt’s Enduring Challenges as it Faces the United States,” 7-18-11, http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=52417&pageid=&pagename=) 

In an effort 

to reinvigorate Egypt’s regional 

AND 

Turkey, and Egypt—would be at odds with the U

nited 

S

tates. 

Impact’s global WMD conflict 

Gillis 4 

 (Lieutenant Col. Patrick, U.S Army, U.S.–TURKISH RELATIONS: THE ROAD TO IMPROVING A TROUBLED STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP, 5-3, pdf>&

) 

SECURITY 

The

U

nited 

S

tates 

has

 a 

considerable stake

AND 

This 

would be advantageous

 for both countries

. 

SCAF backlash causes Iranian aggression, Israel freakout, peace process failure, and Iraq civil war 

Wood 11 

 (David, Chief Military Correspondent, “At Risk in Egypt's Turmoil: U.S. Military Access to the Middle East,” 2-05-11, http://www.politicsdaily.com/2011/02/05/at-risk-in-egypts-turmoil-u-s-military-access-to-the-middle-e/) 

Whatever the outcome of the tumult wracking Egypt, 

AND 

demonstrated the fragility of many of the region's regimes. 

Iranian aggression causes China/Japan war 

Hazlett 6 – Sean Patrick Hazlett – Kennedy School of Government Policy Analysis Exercise – I suppose this was Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master in Public Policy, but it was with oversight by Faculty Advisor Dr. Ashton B. Carter and was specifically prepared for Ambassador R. Nicholas Burns Under Secretary for Political Affairs, United States Department of State – PLAN B FOR PERSIA – April 4, 2006 – http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/hazlett_plan_b_for_persia_report_april2006.pdf 

Iranian adventurism

emboldened by Iran’s 

AND 

 an important role on events in the Gulf region. 

Goes nuclear 

Moore 6 – Scott Moore, Undergraduate Research Assistant, East Asia Nonproliferation Program, CNS, 10-18-2006, “Nuclear Conflict in the 21st Century: Reviewing the Chinese Nuclear Threat,” NTI, http://www.nti.org/e_research/e3_80.html 

 China's Asian Rival: A Resurgent Japan 

AND 

 contemplates the future of Sino-American relations in the nuclear context. 

Israel freakout causes extinction 

Konstantinov 11 

 (Mihail, Full Professor in Mathematics with the University of Architecture, Civil Engineering and Geodesy (UACEG), Bulgaria, “Nuclear Middle East”, 2-12-11, bg/article?id=1005>&

) 

It is an open secret that at least 

since 1967 

Isra­el

AND 

 price fluc­tu­a­tions on the glob­al mar­kets. 

Peace process failure goes nuclear 

Nawash 9 

 (Kamal, director of the legal department at the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee and attorney at the Nawash Law Office in Washington, D.C., “Israel/Palestine Conflict May Lead to Nuclear War”, 1-10-09, http://www.arabisto.com/article/Blogs/Kamal_Nawash/IsraelPalestine_Conflict_May_Lead_to_Nuclear_War/28363) 

The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians is 

AND 

 Palestinians and security for Israel.

There are no other choices. 

Iraq civil war goes global 

Ferguson 6

 (Niall, Professor of History – Harvard University, “The Next War of the World”, Foreign Affairs, September / October, Proquest) 

What makes 

the escalating civil war in Iraq

 so disturbing 

AND 

but more likely 

on

 Palestine and 

Mesopotamia

Official democracy aid’s key to US-SCAF relations 

Richter and Fleishman 11 

 (Paul and Jeffrey, staff writers for the LA Times, “U.S. pro-democracy effort rubs many in Egypt the wrong way,” 8-10-11, http://articles.latimes.com/print/2011/aug/10/world/la-fg-us-egypt-20110811) 

The military

 government has portrayed groups that take 

AND  hypersensitivity, and no one wants to be accused of being a spy." 

Active U.S. involvement’s key 

Schenker 11 (David, Fellow and Director of the Program on Arab Politics – Washington Institute and Former Levant Country Director – Secretary of Defense, “Egypt’s Enduring ChallengesPolicy Recommendations”, The Cutting Edge, 7-25, http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=52459) 

Reestablish Egypt as a regional actor and 

shore up

 the 

AND the region as a whole depends on it 

SCAF thinks aid’s inevitable – routing it through official channels reassures them 

Dreazen 11 

 (Yochi J., frequent contributor to Global Research, “State Department Will Name Taylor to Lead Aid Efforts in Libya and Egypt,” 9-7-11, http://www.nationaljournal.com/state-department-will-name-taylor-to-lead-aid-efforts-in-libya-and-egypt-20110907) 

In the aftermath of the popular protests that toppled longtime 

AND 

 of the planned American aid has been spent. 

Turns assume bypassing the SCAF – plan solves 

Trofimov 11 

 (Yaroslav, Correspondent for the Middle East, Africa, and Central Asia Bureau of the Wall Street Journal, “Egypt Opposes U.S.'s Democracy Funding,” 6-14-11, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304665904576383123301579668.html) 

A U.S. plan to fund the democratic transition in 

AND 

assistance must be channeled through the government. 

Pressure causes backlash 

Martini 11 (Jeff, Project Associate – RAND Corporation, “Commanding Democracy in Egypt”, Foreign Affairs, 90(5), September / October, Ebsco) 

The U

nited 

S

tates, in particular, 

appears to wield

 a 

great

 deal of 

AND 

undermine cooperation

 between the two countries

.

“Resolved” doesn’t lock Aff into “certainty”:

 === Merriam Webster ‘9 === 

(http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/resolved) 

# Main Entry: 1re·solve # Pronunciation: \ri-ˈ

zälv, -

ˈ 

AND 

 determine 3 : 

consult, deliberate 

“Should” doesn’t require certainty

Black’s Law 79 (Black’s Law Dictionary – Fifth Edition, p. 1237) 

Should

. The past tense of shall; ordinarily AND 

does not

 ordinarily 

express certainty

as “will” sometimes does. === Clear and consistent signal is key - ambiguity and mixed messages undercut U.S. leverage === 

El Amrani 11

 (Issandr, Egypt and North Africa Analyst – International Crisis Group>& and MA in Oriental and African Studies – University of London, “Confronting Egypt’s Dangerous Decline”, Project on Middle East Democracy Policy Brief, 1-6, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/policy-brief-series_elamr ani.pdf>>http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/policy-brief-series_elamr%20ani.pdf) 

Moreover, in choosing Cairo as the location of his first major 

AND 

the 

ambiguities

 and 

contradictions

 of its current approach

. === Unconditional action’s key to U.S. signaling === 

Ikenson ‘7

 (Daniel, Associate Director of the Cato Institute, “Is Trade Liberalization a Product of Domestic or International Processes Lessons from Doha”, Presentation at the Tasman Transparency Group’s Conference on Domestic Transparency at the Lowy Institute, The Cato Institute, July 4, http://www.freetrade.org/node/708) 

Removing barriers 

unilaterally 

could 

also go a 

AND 

bludgeon 

through which the U.S. expresses its 

hegemony

.

• 
  
  •  === CP de-prioritizes IRF - it must be the highest focus === 

Farr 10

 (Thomas F., Professor of Religion and International Affairs – Georgetown's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and Director – Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs, “National Security Without Religious Liberty?”, Washington Post Blog, 6-7, http://onfaith.washingtonpost.com/onfaith/georgetown/2010/06/>>http://onfaith.washingtonpost.com/onfaith/georgetown/2010/06/ a_national_security_strategy_without_religious_freedom.html) 

In a previous post, 

I voiced the fear that

 the 

Obama 

AND 

 international religious freedom, a position required by the IRF Act. === Even if it results in the plan, possibility of roll-back destroys the U.S. model === 

Farr 8

 (Thomas F., Professor of Religion and International Affairs – Georgetown's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and Director – Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs, “Diplomacy in an Age of Faith Subtitle: Religious Freedom and National Security”, Foreign Affairs, March / April, Lexis) 

REDISCOVERING THE 

AMERICAN MODEL 

AND 

establishment blinded by secularism === Conditioning on Israel peace doesn’t reverse U.S. hostility === 

Bulliet 11

 (Richard, Professor of Middle East History – Columbia University, “Time to End US Fear of the Muslim Brotherhood”, The Guardian, 2-3, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/feb/03/us-fear-muslim-brotherhood) 

When chaos in Cairo gives way to a resumption of government, 

AND 

pluralistic electoral system. 

Obama should make this 

clear

. === Conditioning aid on peace with Israel doesn’t signal a genuine commitment === 

Karmi 11 

 (Omar, journalist for The National, “US argues over foreign aid policy along with its debt problem,” 8-2-11, http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/us-argues-over-foreign-aid-policy-along-with-its-debt-problem?pageCount=0) 

As for Egypt, 

the bill would 

condition aid to Cairo on

 AND 

democracy - 

in word and deed."

Co-op’s key to effective SPS

Foust 10 (Jeff, Editor and Publisher – The Space Review, “Space Solar Power’s Indian Connection”, The Space Review, 11-8, http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1721/1)

While the idea of cooperation between the two countries

AND

Jerry Brown was elected governor of California on Tuesday.

Resource conflict inevitable --- SPS solves escalation to World War III

Schubert 10 – PhD in Electrical Engineering

Peter J. Schubert, PhD in electrical and computer engineering from Purdue University, holds 30 US patents, 8 foreign patents, and has published over 60 technical papers and book chapters, 12-2010, “Costs, Organization, and Roadmap for SSP,” Online Journal of Space Communication, http://spacejournal.ohio.edu/issue16/schubert.html

I. Introduction

The top three issues facing mankind are: (1) developing

AND

sources. None of these options favor SSP.

Solves water wars -- extinction

Schwab 5 – director of the Homeplanet Defense Institute (Martin, Homeplanet Defense: Strategic Thought for a World in Crisis, chapter 5)

The protracted crisis in Israel/Palestine continues to fuel

AND

 energy intensive. SSP can ease this problem in Israel/Palestine.

Stops asteroids that cause extinction

Schwab 2 – Director – Homeland Defense Institute, Former Fellow – Space Security Working Group of the Eisenhower Institute, and Currently on the Steering Committee – International Association of Space Entrepreneurs (Martin, “The New Viability of Space Solar Power:  Global Mobilization for a Common Human Endeavor” 4/15, )

Using SSP/Communications Platforms to Detect and Deflect Small

AND

and Livermore National Laboratories.42 

Party training’s key to Indian economic ties with Egypt

Twining 11 (Daniel, Senior Fellow for Asia – German Marshall Fund of the United States and Richard Fontaine, Senior Fellow – Center for a New American Security, “The Ties that Bind? U.S.—Indian Values-based Cooperation”, Washington Quarterly, Spring, http://www.twq.com/11spring/docs/11spring_Twining_Fontaine.pdf)

Institution-Building in the Middle East

The changes roiling the Middle East present a

AND

and more prosperous trade and investment partners.

U.S. coordination’s crucial --- avoids duplication

Latif 11 (S. Amer, Visiting Fellow and Wadhwani Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies – Center for Strategic and International Studies, “Talking Over the Arab Spring”, CSIS Blog, 7-12, http://csis.org/publication/talking-over-arab-spring)

As Washington has struggled to deal with the Arab Spring over

AND

 promote coordination and avoid duplication.

Plan expands Indian diplomacy --- boosts cooperation

Chandra 11 (Naresh, Chair – India's National Security Advisory Board and Former Indian Ambassador to the United States, et al., “The United States and India: A Shared Strategic Future”, September, p. 26-27)

West Asia, as Indians call it, and North Africa are going through a

AND

 efforts at coordination through regular meetings of relevant senior officials from both governments.

That’s key to Egypt/Indian strategic partnership --- spills over to ag biotech

Siddiqui 8 (Humaira, Reporter – India Strategic, “India, Egypt Seek to Open New Chapter for Bilateral Relations”, India Strategic, December, http://www.indiastrategic.in/topstories233.htm)

India and Egypt have stressed the need for proper representation to

AND

 $ 800 million to at least $ 2 billion.

Collaboration’s key to ag biotech innovation and deployment

Singer 10 (Peter A., et al., “South-South Entrepreneurial Collaboration in Health Biotech”, Nature Biotechology, December, http://www.nature.com/nbt/journal/v28/n5/full/nbt0510-407.html?lang=en)

Rationale for South-South collaboration

One reason why firms in health biotech, both in developing countries and

AND

 knowledge, products or services in health biotech.

That’s key to Indian growth and averting food crisis

Prakash 00 (C.S., “Gene Revolution and Food Security”, 3-2, http://www.agbioworld.org/biotech-info/articles/agbio-articles/revolution.html)

A revitalised Indian agriculture can be the engine of growth and biotechnology

AND

its two-thirds of populace dependent on farming.

Food crisis causes nuclear war over Kashmir

Crowell 9 (Gary, Ex-Member – Air Reserve Technician Program (nucleus of managers, planners and trainers who have knowledge and expertise to smooth Air Force Reserve Command (AFRC) units' transition from a peacetime to a wartime environment), “Continuing Challenge”, Znet, 8-15, http://www.zcommunications.org/climate-change-drought-and-indias-looming-food-and-water-crisis-by-vandana2-shiva)

I read your commentary with great interest. Like all the other commentary I read in Z,

AND

fearful of North Korea's half dozen or so nukes, because that country is espesially hungry.

Extinction

Robock 10 – Alan, Professor of Climatology at Rutgers University and Associate Director of the Center for Environmental Prediction and Owen Brian Toon, chair of the department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at the University of Colorado at Boulder and a fellow of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, fellow of the American Meteorological Society and the American Geophysical Union, “Local War, Global Suffering,” Scientific American, January, http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockToonSciAmJan2010.pdf

Abolition: The Only Policy

People have several incorrect impressions about nuclear winter. One is that the

AND

These points of conflict have the potential to erupt suddenly.

India’s key to the global economy

Bouton 10 (Marshall M., President – Chicago Council on Global Affairs, “America’s Interests in India”, CNAS Working Paper, October, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_USInterestsinIndia_ Bouton.pdf)

India’s economic growth will also be directly important to U.S.

AND

 will generate jobs and joint ventures in the United States.

Global nuclear war

Austin 9 (Michael, Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute, and Desmond Lachman – Resident Fellow – American Enterprise Institute, “The Global Economy Unravels”, Forbes, 3-6, http://www.aei.org/article/100187)

What do these trends mean in the short and medium term? The Great Depression

AND

 of small explosions that coalesce into a big bang.

Collapse causes India/China war

Garten 95 (Jeffrey E., Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade Development, “U.S. Policy Toward South Asia”, Federal News Service, 3-7, Lexis)

For example, Lyndon Johnson launched the Indo-American Foundation to

AND

 or one with whom the promise of cooperation and friendship is greater.

Extinction

Caldicott 2 (Helen, Founder – Physicians for Social Responsibility, The New Nuclear Danger: George W. Bush’s Military-Industrial Complex, p. x)

The use of Pakistani nuclear weapons could trigger a chain reac­tion.

AND

nuclear winter would ensue, meaning the end of most life on earth.

True even without escalation

Dekhang 98 (Tsultrim, Executive He ad of the EDD and Environmental Studies –Yale University, “Nuclear Weapons on the Tibetan Plateau, http://www.tibet.com/Eco/Green98/chap6.html)

The Tibetan Plateau has been militarised by China in persuasion of

AND

world for all our children to live in and share with all other sentient beings.