PLAN: The United States Federal Government should provide substantial technical assistance for political organization in Egypt.
Advantage 1 is the Muslim Brotherhood
The Brotherhood is gaining power in Egypt
Urban 11 (Mark, Diplomatic and Defence Editor – Newsnight (BBC), “Egypt's Islamists Mobilising Mass Support”, BBC News World, 8-3, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-14396488)
Since Friday a new factor has also entered
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military rulers portrayed them as for so long.
They’re stronger than ever because of U.S. isolation - “picking winners” creates a perception of hostility that’s the basis of recruiting and radicalism
Duss 11 (Matthew, Policy Analyst and Director of Middle East Progress – Center for American Progress and MA in Middle East Studies – University of Washington, “Recognizing Reality in the Middle East”, Center for American Progress Report, 7-1, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/07/middle_east_reality.html)
It appears the U.S. government
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Clinton’s comments were a step in that direction.
U.S. assistance gives secular groups the resources and skills necessary to compete and prevent Brotherhood control
Ali 11 (Ayaan Hirsi, Fellow – American Enterprise Institute and Founder – AHA Foundation, “Get Ready for the Muslim Brotherhood”, New York Times, 2-3, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/04/opinion/04iht-edali04.html?page wanted=all)
Those two experiences gave me some insights that
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one tyranny aside could easily succumb to another.
Strong demand exists for U.S. technical assistance - including the Brotherhood defuses anti-American resistance
Slavin 11 (Barbara, Senior Fellow – Atlantic Council, Senior Diplomatic Correspondent – USA Today, and Assistant Managing Editor for World and National Security – Washington Times, “U.S. "Democracy" Advisors Suddenly in Demand”, Inter-Press Service, 4-14, http://ipsnews.net/wap/news.asp?idnews=55266)
For years, U.S. officials
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parties formed by the Muslim Brothers in Egypt.
Making it openly available without restriction enables an effective democratic transition
Strasser 11 (Max, Cairo-Based Editor – Foreign Policy Magazine, “Can USAID Be a Force For Good In Egypt?”, The Nation, 7-22, http://www.thenation.com/article/162239/can-usaid-be-force-good-egypt)
In Egypt, as in much of the
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post-Mubarak, pre-election Egypt.
A consistent mandate of open access to U.S. democracy aid is critical to shift on-the-ground policy to accommodate the Brotherhood
Hamid 10 (Shadi, Director of Research – Brookings Doha Center and Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “The Islamist Response to Repression: Are Mainstream Islamist Groups Radicalizing?”, Brookings Doha Center Policy Briefing, August, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/ 2010/0809_islamist_groups_hamid/0809_islamist_groups_hamid.pdf)
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
Islamist leaders often speak of an “American
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-hoc meetings lacking a substantive agenda. 3
Even if the Brotherhood takes control, assistance now gives the U.S. leverage to moderate its behavior
Duss 11 (Matthew, Policy Analyst and Director of Middle East Progress – Center for American Progress and MA in Middle East Studies – University of Washington, “Are We Serious About A Democratic Egypt?”, ThinkProgress Security, 2-4, http://thinkprogress.org/security/2011/02/04/176481/are-we-serious-about-a-democratic-egypt/)
I agree that U.S. has
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We should start getting used to that idea.
Engagement undermines Brotherhood radicalism. Exclusion drives violent elements underground.
al-Anani 10 (Khalil, Visiting Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy – Brookings Institution and Assistant to the Managing Editor – al-Siyassa al Dawliya (Cairo Newspaper), “Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood: Opposite Effects”, Ikkwan Web, 3-1, http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=23446)
Suppression may tax the Muslim Brotherhood organizationally but
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on the Muslim Brotherhood will drive it underground.
The impact’s terrorism - 2 internal links:
- Engaging the MB undercuts the ideological basis for al Qaeda’s recruiting
Mudd 11 (Philip, Senior Global Advisor – Oxford Analytic, “Why the U.S. Should Engage the Muslim Brotherhood”, The Atlantic, 2-21, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/print/2011/02/why-the-us-should-engage-the-muslim-brotherhood/71434/)
The current unrest throughout the Middle East and
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arms-length adversary or a newfound opportunity.
2. Intel cooperation - hostile Brotherhood will cut it off
Byman 11 (Daniel, Professor of Security Studies – Georgetown University and Research Director of the Saban Center for Middle East Studies – Brookings Institution, “Egypt 2012: What If the Muslim Brotherhood Comes to Power?”, Wall Street Journal, 2-4, http://blogs.wsj.com/ideas-market/2011/02/04/egypt-2012-what-if-the-muslim-brotherhood-comes-to-power/)
The Brotherhood will be a strong player in
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the Central Intelligence Agency would seek a coup.
Egypt’s key
Sheridan 11 (Mary Beth, Diplomatic Correspondent – Washington Post, “Egypt’s Spies are Key US Partners”, Boston Globe, 2-14, http://articles.boston.com/2011-02-14/news/29341815_1_egyptians-islamist-intelligence-agencies)
For decades, Egypt’s government has been a
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notorious torture record of those nations’ security services.
Nuclear terrorism’s likely - only Arab intel stops it
Alexander 11 (Yonah, Professor Emeritus – State University of New York and Director – International Center for Terrorism Studies at the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, and Milton Hoenig, Professor of Physics – University of Massachusetts, “Al-Qaida’s ‘Doomsday’ Revenge?”, Jerusalem Post, 8-22, http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Art icle.aspx?id=233519)
The frightening prospect is the new al-
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tolerance, democratic values and civil society engagement.
Global nuclear war
Speice 6 (Patrick, JD Candidate – College of William and Mary, “Negligence and Nuclear Nonproliferation: Eliminating the Current Liability Barrier to Bilateral U.S.-Russian Nonproliferation Assistance Programs”, William and Mary Law Review, 47 Wm and Mary L. Rev. 1427, February, Lexis)
Terrorist groups could acquire a nuclear weapon by
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and escalate to the use of nuclear weapons.
Independently, MB control causes internal repression that causes a flow of refugees that destabilize Europe
Ali 11 (Ayaan Hirsi, Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute, “Will the Muslim Brotherhood Succeed
Where Osama Failed?”, New Perspectives Quarterly, 28(3), Summer, p. 21-22)
AT H O M E | In order
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. But the doctrine of jihad lives on.
Extinction
Elliot 7 (Jeffrey M., North Carolina Central University and Robert Reginald, California State University, San Bernandino, The Arms Control, Disarmament, and Military Security Dictionary, p. 19-20)
Escalation of War (15)
Increasing, enlarging, or intensifying the nature
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, 20; TOTAL. WAR. 32.
Advantage 2 is Investment
Egypt is hemorrhaging FDI
Sharp 11 (Jeremy M., Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs – CRS, “Egypt in Transition”, Congressional Research Service Report, 6-17, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33003.pdf)
Egypt After Mubarak: New Faces, Old Problems
Egypt’s “January 25 Revolution” has not
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deadly Coptic-Muslim clashes since February 11.
New investments are on hold - officers are closely watching for signals about democracy - otherwise, they’ll pull out
Shapiro 11 (Dr. Robert J., Chair of the Globalization Initiative – New Democratic Network, Ph.D. and MA – Harvard Univeristy, M.Sc. – London School of Economics, “The Real Economic Implications of the Uprising in Egypt”, 2-9, http://ndn.org/blog/2011/02/real-economic-implications-uprising-egypt)
The real economic impact here threatens Egypt,
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a better life that have fueled the uprising.
Democracy assistance attracts beneficial forms of FDI and discourages corporate exploitation
Kapfer 7 (Dr. Steve, Ph.D. – Political Science, et al., “If You Build It, Will They Come? Foreign Aid’s Effects on Foreign Direct Investment”, 4-14, http://irtheoryandpractice.wm.edu/publications/build_it.pdf)
Section 6: Implications and Conclusion
The ability to sort and test loans by
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for health and education as well as infrastructure.
U.S. assistance causes “follow the flag” effects that spur FDI inflows
Biglaiser 5 (Glen, Professor of Political Science – Texas Tech University, and Karl DeRouen, Jr., Professor of Political Science – University of Alabama, “Security, Property Rights, and US Foreign Direct Investment”, 11-21, http://nathanjensen.wustl.edu/me/files/WP8.pdf)
Since the end of the cold war,
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likely to underpin the security-investment nexus.
The signal’s critical - aid must be clear and unconditional to indicate trust and affect investor psychology
Garriga 11 (Ana Carolina, Professor of Political Studies – Centro de Investigacion y Docencia Economicas (Mexico) and Brian J. Phillips, Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science – University of Pittsburgh, “Foreign Aid and Investment in Post-Conflict Societies”, http://www.cide.edu/publicaciones/status/dts/DTEP%20227.pdf)
The impact of foreign aid on FDI
There is a less explored channel through which
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have a positive signaling effect and attract FDI.
FDI’s critical to maintain Egyptian economic reforms
Schenker 11 (David, Senior Fellow in Arab Politics – Washington Institute for Near East Policy, “Egypt and the Arab Fall”, Los Angeles Times, 6-1, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jun/01/opinion/la-oe-schenker-egypt-20110601)
Today in Egypt, there is an environment
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who advocate that "Islam is the solution."
Specifically - Egypt will bail on subsidy reforms
Schenker 11 (David, Fellow and Director of the Program on Arab Politics – Washington Institute and Former Levant Country Director – Secretary of Defense, “Egypt’s Enduring ChallengesPolicy Recommendations”, The Cutting Edge, 7-25, http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=52459)
Leadership changes in Egypt have been remarkably rare
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undermine U.S.-Egyptian bilateral ties.
That causes Nile water shortages
GWI 10 (Global Water Intelligence, “The Key to Safeguarding the Nile’s Future”, 11(11), November, http://www.globalwaterintel.com/archive/11/11/general/key-safeguarding-niles-future.html)
Egypt is thinking of offering TSE sales contracts
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, you won’t see a change in demand.”
Escalates to conflict with Sudan and Ethiopia
Brown 11 (Lester R., President – Earth Policy Institute, “When the Nile Runs Dry”, Plan B Updates, 6-7, http://www.earth-policy.org/plan_b_updates/2011/update97)
A new scramble for Africa is under way
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competition for the Nile’s water could turn deadly.
Goes global and draws in great powers
Glick 7 (Caroline, Senior Middle East Fellow – Center for Security Policy, “Condi’s African Holiday”, 12-12, http://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/home.aspx?sid=56&categoryid=56&subcategoryid=90&newsid=11568)
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice introduced a
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which flows through all countries of the region.
Goes nuclear - generic defense doesn’t apply
NASCA 4 (National Association for Scientific and Cultural Appreciation, “Water Shortages – Only a Matter of Time”, http://www.nasca.org.uk/Strange_relics_/water/water.html)
Water is one of the prime essentials for
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for which there will be no obvious answer.
U.S. FDI to Egypt is critical to job growth and leadership on clean tech
Peterson 10 (Bertil, Editor and Chief of Publications – American Chamber of Commerce Egypt, “Egypt as a Regional Hub for Value-Added Production, Services, and Export”, Executive Summary, http://www.amcham.org .eg/egypttradehub/EXECUTIVESUMMARY.asp)
AmCham Egypt has been at the forefront of
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that avail themselves within the new strategic partnership.
Clean tech leadership solves extinction
Klarevas 9 (Louis, Professor at the Center for Global Affairs – New York University, “Securing American Primacy While Tackling Climate Change: Toward a National Strategy of Greengemony”, Huffington Post, 12-15, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/louis-klarevas/securing-american-primacy_b_393223.html)
By not addressing climate change more aggressively and
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be employed to keep potential foes in check.
Job growth stops protectionism
El-Erian 9 (Mohamed, chief executive and co-chief investment officer of Pimco, American jobs data are worse than we think, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1e06911c-6719-11de-925f-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1RAPfeGsO)
This conventional wisdom is valid most, but
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the cost to society of restoring economic stability.
Extinction
Pazner 8 (Michael J., Faculty – New York Institute of Finance, Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse, p. 137-138)
The rise in isolationism and protectionism will bring
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as the beginnings of a new world war.
