DA
SKFTA will pass – Top of docket, obama push and bipart support
Reuters, 9/15  (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/16/usa-china-trade-idUSS1E78E20V20110916)
The push for …… three trade pacts.

Yemen 1NC

Yemen assistance drains capital – congress opposes multiyear funding commitments and trades off with higher political priorities
Sharp, 11 (Jeremy, CRS Report, 3/11)
There are a ……….. and their citizens."

Capital key
Mclarty and Cunningham, 11
THOMAS "MACK" MCLARTY III AND NELSON W. CUNNINGHAM, Mr. McLarty was chief of staff to President Clinton in 1993-94 and helped bring Bill Daley into the White House to lead the 1993 Nafta ratification effort. Mr. Cunningham was an aide to President Clinton and to then-Sen. Joseph Biden, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703954004576090290103169526.html
Now, in a ……….. quarterback the effort.

SKFTA key to US trade leadership  
Bacchus 12/30 – chairman, Global Trade and Investment Practice Group, Greenberg Traurig (James, 12/30/10, “Reviving U.S. Power Abroad From Within,” http://www.cfr.org/publication/23701/reviving_us_power_abroad_from_within.html)

But the president …………..the new year.

Extinction
Dreier 1/5 – Rep. Chairman of the House Rules Committee (Rep. David Dreier, 1/5/11, Politico, “Bipartisanship can revive economy,” http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0111/47044.html, JMP)

There are no ……………….. leadership through trade.

CP
Text – The European Union should substantially increase its support for capacity and oversight of local government institutions in Yemen.

EU lead action solves and restores US cred by getting America on board – vital internal link to EU soft power but perm fails and undercuts EU influence
Dergham, 11  (Raghida, Senior Diplomatic Correspondent @ Al Hayat, 7/28, http://www.presseurop.eu/en/content/article/810401-europe-has-role-play)

MIDDLE EAST Europe ……………. by other powers.

Extinction results
John Bruton, Deputy, Joint Committee on European Affairs, 10/2001, The Future of the European Union, www.irlgov.ie/committees-02/c-europeanaffairs/future/page1.htm

As the Laeken …………….otherwise overwhelm us.

1NC Shell
Relations are strong now – strong US commitment to Israel’s security
Keinon 9/6/2011 (Herb, “Gov't official: Cooperation with US better than ever”, http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=236908)
Israeli–US cooperation ……….. weeks at the UN.

Democracy Assistance guarantees Israeli backlash – prefers status quo
Kirchik ’11  (James Kirchick is a New Republic contributing editor and writer at large with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty based in Prague, 2/28)
But the events ………… the same way.”

Strategic consensus on security key to relations – it’s the only internal link
Tov 2 (Yaacov Bar-Simon-Tov, Professor of International Relations – Hebrew University, “The United States and Israel Since 1948: A “Special Relationship?”, Diplomatic History, 22(2), Spring, p. 231-232)
The special relationship …………… patron-client relationship.

Perception of Abandonment causes conflict and nuclear retaliation  
Longstreet 4-7-2011 (JD, “Israel's Samson Option”, http://www.thejerusalemconnection.us/blog/2011/04/07/israels-samson-option.html)
Without America standing …………….. or its plight.

DA

The budget for the rest of the year has been set – funding levels are steady but there’s a finite budget
Mungcal 10 (Ivy, Writer – Devex Manila, “Former USAID Administrators Defend Foreign Assistance Budget”, Devex, 7-15, http://www.devex.com/blogs/400/blogs_entries/68457)
As former administrators ……………. agency in the world.” 

And, the plan trades off internally within the democracy assistance budget – due to earmarks, NED funding is the only place the plan can draw upon – it’s the most effective form of democracy assistance
Melia ‘5 (Thomas, Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Georgetown University, Walsh School of Foreign Service, Princeton Project on National Security, “The Democracy Bureaucracy”, http://www.princeton.edu/~ppns/papers/democracy_bureaucracy.pdf)
One of the ……………… sustainable would that be?)

that means aid to counteract Chavez gets cut
Jones ‘4 (Bart, National Catholic Reporter, “Opinion and Analysis: International U.S. Funds Aid Venezuela Opposition”, http://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/448)
The United …………….. interview March 2.

That cedes regional influence to Chavez – causes multiple extinction scenarios for latin American instability
Oppenheimer 1999, syndicated columnist and a member of The Miami Herald team that won the 1987 Pulitzer Prize, won the 1999 Maria Moors Cabot Award, the 2001 King of Spain prize, and the 2005 Emmy Suncoast award, author of “Castro's Final Hour; Bordering on Chaos”, and “Saving the Americas” (Andres, February 9, “The Oppenheimer Report: Chávez making friends while Bush earning enmity”, The Miami Herald)
You don't …………. for U.S. taxpayers.

That allows him to promote his agenda, causing myriad scenarios for mass death, turns every impact
Manwaring ‘5, General Douglas MacArthur Chair and Prof of Military Strategy @ U.S. Army War College, Ret U.S. Army Colonel, Adjunct Professor of International Politics @ Dickinson College (Max G, October, Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, Bolivarian Socialism, and Asymmetric Warfare”, Strategic Studies Institute, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB628.pdf)
At the same time, ……………security, peace, and prosperity.

Advantage One

Saudi Arabia solves Yemen transition now
Heydemann 2011 [Steven, senior vice president of the Grants  program and as special adviser to the Muslim World Initiative. Saleh’s End?, Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention, June 6]
Yemen’s future would …………..a post-Saleh political order.

Multiple alt causes to unrest – hereditary succession charges, new SCER and electoral law amendments.
Sharp -11 (Jeremy M. Sharp, Specialist in Middle East Affairs, June 8, 2011, Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations, CRS Report for Congress, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL34170.pdf)
Well before the ………….. the utmost rudeness.”

SQ solves long-term civil war in Yemen.
Phillip -11 (Chapter Seven: Yemen and the 2011 Arab Uprisings, Sarah Phillip, Special Issue: Yemen and the Politics of Permanent Crisis,  Available online: 04 Jul 2011, http://www.tandfonline.com.proxy1.cl.msu.edu/doi/pdf/10.1080/19445571.2011.600540)
The outbreak of ………….. of  firepower used.

Economic collapse doesn’t lead to war
Morris Miller, economist, adjunct professor in the University of Ottawa's Faculty of Administration, consultant on international development issues, former Executive Director and Senior Economist at the World Bank, Winter 2000, Interdisciplinary Science Reviews, Vol. 25, Iss. 4, "Poverty as a cause of wars?"
The question may ……………. to abort another).

No impact to oil shocks – experts agree that oil market and economy are adaptable
Kahn 11 (Jeremy, 2/13, “Crude reality”, http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2011/02/13/crude_reality/)
The idea that a ………….. it was in 1973.

Us economy is resilient – Fed will adapt to challenges – current climate proves
Stiles 11/12/08 http://www.mailtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081112/BIZ/811120332

“I'd say I've ………….. to work more in concert."

Democracy assistance can’t solve stability in Yemen.
Haykel -11 (Bernard Haykel is is a professor of Near Eastern studies at Princeton University, Saudi Arabia vs. the Arab Spring, August 19, 2011, http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2940388)
The Assad regime’s ………….. of total collapse.

Quick push for democracy causes violent backlash – prevents reform from working
International Crisis Group -11 (POPULAR PROTEST IN NORTH AFRICAN AND THE MIDDLE EAST (II): YEMEN BETWEEN REFORM AND REVOLUTION Middle East/North Africa Report N°102 – 10 March 2011, http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Yemen/102%20Popular%20Protest%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20_II_%20Yemen%20between%20Reform%20and%20Revolution.ashx)
The protesters, with ………… failing social contract.

No oil shocks – empirics prove
Kahn 11 (Jeremy, 2/13, “Crude reality”, http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2011/02/13/crude_reality/)
Among those …………… costly military operations.”

No resource wars -
Too expensive and market checks
Victor ’08 David G,- Adjunct Senior Fellow for Science and Technology, Council on Foreign Relations; Director, Program on Energy and Sustainable Development  @ Stanford “Smoke and Mirror” http://www.nationalinterest.org/PrinterFriendly.aspx?id=16530)

MY ARGUMENT …………the gun barrel.

Advantage Two

No AQAP threat from Yemen – too few members.
Haykel -11 (Interviewee: Bernard Haykel, Professor of Near Eastern Studies, Princeton University, June 7, 2011, Yemen's Uncertain Political Future, http://www.cfr.org/yemen/yemens-uncertain-political-future/p25205)
The United States …………… and his tricks.

Threat of AQAP exaggerated.
Aljazeera -11 (August 8, 2011, Abubakr Al-Shamahi, Taking a chance on a democratic Yemen, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/08/2011847134790380.html)
The other outside …………. individual activists continuing. 

Attempting to make us completely safe from terrorism fails and replicates the problem – turning case
Lustick 10 (Ian S. Lustick is Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania, “Excerpt from the Book: Preface”, http://www.trappedinthewaronterror.com/excerpt)

A specter haunts …………….. with the Soviet Union.

US involvement causes terrorism
Cohn. 10 (Julie Cohn,  June 2010, “Islamic Radicalism in Yemen”, http://www.cfr.org/yemen/islamist-radicalism-yemen)
The United States: ……………….. reform and other areas.

Ease of attack proves terrorists either are incompetent or uninterested
Mueller 6 (John Mueller, Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University, September/October 2006, “Is there still a terrorist threat?: The myth of the omnipresent enemy”, http://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/fr/IMG/pdf/menaceterroriste_exageration.pdf)

It may well ………………huffing and puffing.  

Neg: Michigan State BC

Round # 5 Tournament: Shirley

Vs Team: Emory CM

Judge: Stables

Off Case Args: Politics – payroll tax cut, EU forums CP, T – “for”

Case Args: Defense

Block Strategy: CP, Politics, Case

2nr Strategy: Politics, case

Neg: Michigan St BC

Round #3  Tournament: Shirley

Vs Team: Wyoming FP

Judge: Norris

Off Case Args:

T for government to government

Payroll tax good

Politics --> econ impact

Ev from CP

Case Args:

No Mideast war

Heg not solve war

Bioweapons not cause extinction

Democracy in Egypt impossible

Internal instability

US cred alt cause

Plan not solve cred

Block Strategy:

CP

DA

case

2nr Strategy:

CP

DA

Wake Forest Round 1 - Neg vs Concordia 

1NC

FRAMEWORK GOTTA HAVE A PLAN

CONTRADICTIONS

Concordia reads at least two advocacy statements:

First – the Double-Bind history Alt – that (Western) imperialism is an inevitable part of action, so we must “accomplish a historical critique of our own positions”.

Second – the al-Basha alt:

That the USFG should stand in solidarity with The Arab Sisters Forum for Human Rights and its leader, al-Basha

But, al Basha WANTS more than speech. Solidarity with her would entail the kinds of “inevitably tainted” interventions the 1AC critiques:

Trust Law – quoting al Basha – ‘11

(Trust Law – “The Word on Women - Women are building a new Yemen” – April 26th –

http://www.trust.org/trustlaw/blogs/the-word-on-women/women-are-building-a-new-yemen/)

Amal al Basha, Chairperson of the Sisters

AND

need our friends to stand by us now.”

Two implications – under all scenarios, they need to have one plan for the sake of clarification. Aff burdens are distinct from Neg ones, in that our role is to negative and our args are reactive. We can’t react if they can simultaneously shift from giving aid to impact turning all aid. We also prove the Aff’s a double-turn and links to our disad.

"RESOLVE" PIC

Text: In an attempt to unlearn our privilege and learn to occupy the subject position of the other, we heed the perspective that the United States federal government should stand in solidarity with The Arab Sisters Forum for Human Rights and its leader, Amal al-Basha, and consider this one of many ways to approach the issue.

The aff’s use of resolve creates a universal truth – vote neg to do the aff minus the universality of the 1ac

Marston 4 (Greg, Research Fellow at the Centre for Applied Social Research, Social Policy and Discourse Analysis, p. 14-15, google books)

The positivist paradigm informs an idealized rational actor

AND

different ways of thinking about language and culture.

Anti Politics

Block

Topicality, anti politics, contradictions

2NR

Topicality and Anti Politics 

Anti Politics - 1NC

the 1nc links may vary from each round

A. Link and Uniqueness

First – Policy Equivocation.

Equivocating on policy implementation makes poor curriculum. This also proves the solution to the Right is university students like us – a uniqueness trend they reverse.

Todd Gitlin formerly served as professor of sociology and director of the mass communications program at the University of California, Berkeley, and then a professor of culture, journalism and sociology at New York University. He is now a professor of journalism and sociology and chair of the Ph.D. program in Communications at Columbia University. He was a long-time political activist( from the Left). From the Book: The Intellectuals and the Flag – 2005 – available via CIAO Books – date accessed 9/25/10 – http://www.ciaonet.org.proxy2.cl.msu.edu/book/git01/git01_04.pdf

Weak thinking on the American left is especially

AND

secession from the world where most people live.

Second – Word Games

The Aff is NOT “political” in the sense our authors discuss. Re-defining “politics” to not include concrete fiated action is a word-game that makes curriculum symbolic and impractical.

Chandler ‘7 (David, Centre for the Study of Democracy, Westminster, Area, Vol. 39, No. 1, p. 118-119)

This disjunction between the human/ethical/

AND

and incoherent character of protest is immediately apparent.

Third – is our long Chandler card, it:

n  Proves trade-offs between forms of “politics”

n  Makes Epistemology K of their authors

n  Beats “link of omission” – silence on “formality” breeds passivity

Chandler ‘7

(David Chandler is Professor of International Relations at the Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Westminster –

“The Attraction of Post-Territorial Politics: Ethics and Activism in the International Sphere” – Inaugural Lecture – May – available at: http://www.davidchandler.org/pdf/short_articles/Inaugural%20lecture.pdf)

However, politics is no less important to

AND

used to understand and engage with the world. 

B. Impacts

They’ll say “conventional politics is bad – it links to our 1AC K”. That’s fine – every time they say “neg links”, we’re saying: “yes, and neg impact turns”. 

Here are our impacts:

First –Moving away from anti-politics vital to check extinction

Small ‘6 (Jonathan, former Americorps VISTA for the Human Services Coalition,  “Moving Forward,” The Journal for Civic Commitment,  Spring, http://www.mc.maricopa.edu/other/engagement/Journal/Issue7/Small.jsp)

What will be the challenges of the new

AND

a project that seeks to do just that.   

Second– State-based macro-politics can succeed. Even if it can’t, the alternatives are worse.

Bronner ‘4

Stephen Eric Bronner, Distinguished Professor of Political Science and a Member of the Graduate Faculty in Comparative Literature and German Studies at Rutgers University, 2004 (Reclaiming the Enlightenment: Toward a Politics of Radical Engagement, Published by Columbia University Press, ISBN 9780231126090, p. 151-153)

Enlightenment thinkers wished neither to abolish the state

AND

a world of direct democracy has been achieved.

C. This position has two implications:

1.       It’s a disad to the 1AC’s emphasis on critical theory and their strategy for advancing political change.

2.       It’s a solvency arg – the systems they critique remain unchanged and their approach to curriculum will only empower the Right.

EU 1NC Off Case: Israel DA, Payroll Politics, EU Forum CP,

2NC Cites: Overview

Economic decline collapses democracy

Halperin 5 [Morton, Senior Vice President of the Center for American Progress and Director of the Open Society Policy Center, 2005, The Democracy Advantage, p. 90, Google Books]

This chapter has made the … democratic course after a several-year interval.

Economic strength key to Heg

Khalilzad 1995 (Zalmay, chair of RAND’s project Air Force Security and Doctrine Program, “Losing the Moment,” Washington Quarterly, Sping, lexis)

The United States is unlikely …, others would try to fill the Vacuum.

Russian economic decline causes nuclear war.

David -99 (Steven David, political scientist, FOREIGN AFFAIRS, January/February 1999, p.

http://www.foreignaffairs.org/19990101faessay955/steven-r-david/saving-america-from-the-coming-civilwars.

Html)

If internal war does strike … that would follow a Russian civil war.

2NC Ext. Payroll Solves Econ

Extend- Washington Post- payroll tax cut extension vital to growth- risks double dip recession

And- most qualified economist agree that EXPIRATION would be devastating for the economy- even if it’s not a short-term boost it prevents shock that causes recession

Chuck Marr is the Director of Federal Tax Policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities., and Brian Highsmith joined the Center’s Federal Fiscal Policy division in January 2011 as a research assistant.  Prior to joining the Center, Highsmith had interned at the National Economic Council and House Budget Committee.  He holds a B.A. in Economics and Political Science from Furman University. 9-7-2011 http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=3572

Failure by Congress to extend the … as part of a larger set of economic measures.

And- it solves the economy---

-Consumer confidence and the multiplier effect

Daytona Beach News Journal, 10-25-2011 http://www.news-journalonline.com/opinion/editorials/n-j-editorials/2011/10/25/congress-should-extend-payroll-tax-cut.html

Economists have been stroking their … Representatives should forge compromise -- with workers' wallets in mind.

-Small business growth

Kristie Arslan President and CEO of the National Association for the Self-Employed (NASE), 10-19-2011 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kristie-arslan/payroll-tax-small-business_b_1018405.html

I think we can all agree that the tax … You are not alone -- and do not have to go it alone!

-750,000 jobs

McClure, 10/22 --- Cal Poly Pomona Finance Prof (Interview, Andrew Edwards, staff writer, “Q&A: Political gridlock hinders economic recovery,” http://www.sbsun.com/business/ci_19174428)

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — As President Barack … would add about 750,000 jobs next year.

-Increases demand creates a multiplier effect

Jim Bowman, former Chicago Tribune columnist and former Chicago Daily News reporter, 10-20-2011 http://www.postcrescent.com/article/20111021/APC06/110210406/Jim-Bowman-column-Obama-s-jobs-bill-will-help-economy

The American Jobs Act will stimulate demand … benefits) also declines. So the federal deficit goes down.

-Eases debt burden

Christian E. Weller is an Associate Professor at the Department of Public Policy and Public Affairs, University of Massachusetts, Boston, and Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress, Washington, DC, 9-12-2011 http://www.tnr.com/article/economy/94761/obama-debt-jobs-plan

Moreover, the extension of the payroll tax … and long-lasting economic growth.

-Unbiased conclusion

Reuters, 9-9-2011 http://blogs.reuters.com/reuters-money/2011/09/09/would-obamas-payroll-tax-cut-hurt-social-security/

These cuts in the Federal Insurance Contributions …r jobs by the end of next year.

-Consensus

TPM ,11-1-2011 http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/11/senate-dems-face-major-challenge-on-key-part-of-obama-jobs-bill.php

Two months from today, a two percent … will hurt the economy at a time when Democrats are desperate to improve it.

AT Econ Defense/Impact Boosters

A) Decline magnifies the severity of other conflicts – WWII proves

Miller 8 – G. Robert M. Miller, journalist for Digital Journal, 10-25, 2008, “Guns vs. Shovels – The Central Question Behind Our Next Economy,” online: http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/261595

But before we look at the modern ‘…; this was true for many western nations.

b) Crisis makes diversionary theory true – states will start wars to head off domestic discontent – and use force to settle old disputes with rivals

Rothkopf 9 – David Rothkopf, Visiting Scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 3-11, 2009, “Security and the Financial Crisis,” Testimony Before the House Armed Services Committee, CQ Congressional Testimony, lexis

--Destabilizing Bilateral or Regional … on issues of common concern.

Failure to act crushes economic leadership which ensures peace – collapse causes war

Posen 9 - deputy director and senior fellow of the Peterson Institute for International Economics (Adam, “Economic leadership beyond the crisis,” http://clients.squareeye.com/uploads/foresight/documents/PN%20USA_FINAL_LR_1.pdf)

Thus, the US faces a challenging but …, it should concentrate  on the following priority measures.

2NC Wall

Extend WSJ- payroll taxes likely to pass- Obama is pushing it intensely

And- err neg- PC increases momentum and support for payroll taxes- that’s Mail Online and- more ev

LAT 10/11 ("Obama acknowledges jobs bill will likely be split up", www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-obama-pittsburgh-20111011,0,4814096.story//ghs-avi)

Reporting from Pittsburgh— President … date looming at the beginning of the year. 

Payroll taxes will likely pass- distinct from other jobs bill issues

Espo 10-19 (David, - AP Special Correspondent “Analysis: Yes, parts of the jobs bill will pass”)

Congress will almost certainly … billion for a neighborhood stabilization fund.

-Administration confident

US News, 11-2-2011 http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2011/11/02/norquist-letting-payroll-tax-cuts-expire-not-a-tax-hike

White House Press Secretary Jay Carney told reporters today that he doubts Congress would let the one-year payroll tax cut expire at the end of the year, because to do so would raise taxes on everyday Americans.

-Experts agree

Reuters, 11-4-20 http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/04/us-washington-summit-preview-idUSTRE7A34W820111104

Alex Brill, a scholar at the American … payroll tax cuts if it is offset by future budget savings.

-Separate bills will work

Fox News, 10-25-2011 http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2011/10/25/obama-pitches-new-mortgage-relief-plan-to-shore-up-economy/

Obama has now agreed to … the payroll tax cuts and extensions in jobless insurance to the long-term unemployed.

-GOP support

State Net Capitol Journal, 10-17-11, p. Lexis

Although Obama has repeatedly … billion for road and school repairs.

-Dems are confident

CBS News, 10-20-2011 http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-20123534/senate-rejects-slimmed-down-obama-jobs-bill/

White House Press Secretary … million of a company's payroll.

2NC T of the D

In the next few weeks

Washington Post, 10-21-11, p. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/2chambers/post/next-up-for-obama-jobs-bill-votes-spending-on-roads-bridges/2011/10/21/gIQAFi5r3L_blog.html

Obama has asked his …. of a payroll tax holiday.

More ev

Los Angeles Times, 10-11-11, p. http://articles.latimes.com/2011/oct/11/nation/la-na-senate-jobs-20111012

Advisors to the president argue that … to come before Congress.

Polcap High

PC and bipart high – Obama Winning now,  has higher approval ratings and GOP is cooperating

Washington Post, 9/25

But this was no case of malicious (or, in …to appease the recalcitrant conservatives.

PC high – Obama putting up a fight

Oregonian 9/19 (The Oregonian, newspaper, “Putting down a clear marker,” http://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2011/09/putting_down_a_clear_marker.html)

But Obama's situation … people, and that's the only way Capitol Hill responds."

Obama has PC – softer GOP stance and trade is bipart

Milbank 9/23 (Dana, writer for the Washington Post, “Republicans? Mr. Nice Guys?” http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/republicans-mr-nice-guys/2011/09/22/gIQAHkqVqK_story.html)

Still, the shift in tone shows that … message that “it is our desire to work with you to find common ground.”

Obama has capital

Blake 9/15 (Aaron, writer for the Washington Post, “Obama’s chance to bounce back,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/obamas-chance-to-bounce-back/2011/09/14/gIQAj4lNTK_blog.html)

Two new polls show more … granted anonymity to speak candidly.

Bipart high because Obama has more capital than congress

Washington Post, 9/13

Armed with polls that show …," Cantor told reporters Monday.

Obama has capital now – relative polling numbers

Roll Call, 9/12

. One senior aide also … move on, the aide argued.

Obama has far more capital than GOP

Keilar, 9/14  (Brianna, CNN White House Correspondent, http://whitehouse.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/14/obama-to-gop-youre-either-with-me-or-youre-against-me/)

So what's with the change in tone? … in primaries by more moderate GOP candidates

AT Dickinson

Their ev is just a blog post, not peer reviewed and solely in the context of Supreme court nominations – Dickinson concludes neg

Dickinson, , 2009 (Matthew, professor of political science at Middlebury College. He taught previously at Harvard University, where he also received his Ph.D., working under the supervision of presidential scholar Richard Neustadt, We All Want a Revolution: Neustadt, New Institutionalism, and the Future of Presidency Research, Presidential Studies Quarterly 39 no4 736-70 D 2009)

Small wonder, then, that initial efforts to … can make persuasions easier, or harder, or impossible" (Neustadt 1990, 54).

AT Compartmentalization

a) Empirically disproven – vote-trading occurs all the time

Rowley et al 98 (Charles Kershaw Rowley, Professor of Economics at George Mason University, Robert D. Tollison, Professor of Economics at Clemson University, Gordon Tullock,  Professor of Law and Economics at George Mason University, “The Political economy of rent-seeking”, Google Books pg. 455)

The U.S. Congress is hindered with respect to … representatives, whose compromises are protected from amendment.

b) External considerations affect votes – it’s not just internal concessions – not one Republican voted for the stimulus even though it was loaded with pork because they wanted to hurt Obama

Capital Key

PC key- test of Obama’s political muscles

Cillizza 10/6 (Chris, Does President Obama still have political juice?, 10/6/11, www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/does-president-obama-still-have-political-juice/2011/10/06/gIQAmtoRQL_blog.html)

(The president also repeatedly … jobs act through the Senate and whack the ball back into the House’s court?

PC key- Obama needs to keep pushing infrastructure

Mali 10-13 (Meghashyam,- writer for the Hill “Van Hollen: Keep 'plugging away' on jobs bill”)

Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) the … for a national infrastructure bank to fund transportation projects.

Needs to use the bully pulpit to get jobs

Color Lines, 10-14-2011 http://colorlines.com/archives/2011/10/is_president_obamas_jobs_drumbeat_working.html

But what Obama’s new insistence … winter. So let’s hope Marshall is onto something when he says we might be at a turning point in Washington.

More evidence

Gomez 10/11 (Henry, politics writer for The Plain Dealer, "President Obama's re-election campaign cites polls to boost jobs bill, but Senate vote unlikely", www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2011/10/president_obamas_re-election_c.html//ghs-avi)

A key measure of President Barack Obama's … Plain Dealer editors and reporters Tuesday that such a scenario was likely.

More ev

The Hill 9/14 ("Poll finds support for Obama jobs plan", thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/181617-poll-finds-support-for-obama-jobs-plan?page=2#comments//ghs-avi)

President Obama hasn't found much … of Americans approve of the president's performance, versus 45 percent in August.

Syria 2NC Link Wall

Israel lobby, political inertia and perception of tradeoff with domestic priorities ensure capital drain

Baen et. al 11 (“Exploring Engagement: US Policy Toward Syria and Hamas” Advisor: ambassador Daniel Kurtzer, The Woodrow Wilson School’s Graduate Policy Workshop)

Political sensitivities are … leadership positions in the U.S. House of Representatives

Israel lobby key

Petras, 6  (James Petras is a Bartle Professor (Emeritus) of Sociology at Binghamton University, 4/6, http://petras.lahaine.org/?p=7)

The problem of war and peace in the … domestic health services and war induced military losses.

Syrian aid causes huge battles in Congress – private investment is preferred

Sontag 00 (Deborah, “Sharon cautions West against aid to Syria in any peace deal”, NYT, 3/1)

Mr. Sharon said liberal … be a better way to support the country and bring it into the world economy.

Obama has maintained aid sanctions towards Syria – plan is a flip-flop

Sharp 11 (Jeremy M, specialist in Middle Eastern affairs, “Syria: Issues for the 112th Congress and Background on US Sanctions”, Congressional Research Service, June 21, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33487.pdf)

Though the Obama Administration …. No aid has been provided to Syria since 1981, when the last aid programs were closed out.

1NR

No piece of say no evidence

Counterplan solves best - key to spur cooperative transatlantic policy – vital internal link to middle east stability and democracy

Kaye, ‘4

Dalia Dassa Kaye is an assistant professor of political science and international affairs

at The George Washington University and a Council on Foreign Relations international affairs fellow, Washington Quarterly, Winter, http://www.twq.com/04winter/docs/04winter_kaye.pdf

The example of Iraq demonstrates … cooperation occurs despite them.

2NC CP Solves/Forum Independently Solves Aff

Extend 1NC Young

-It’s the only comparative evidence in the debate – none of their solvency deficits are about the CPs specific mechanism - Joint US-EU political support and strategy coordination for European leadership solves best for several reasons

-US support resolves any reason the EU fails

-Coordination key to prevent regimes from playing both sides off each other – turns the whole case

-EU uniquely effective - regional influence, power, experience, prestige and networks

-Only the CP results in a net increase in US credibility – our evidence is shockingly specific and comparative – US support for multilateral efforts avoids regional backlash but captures US signal and support – the aff puts the cart before the horse – credibility is key solvency – not the other way around

U.S. EU forums fail – the plan will be watered down with no one being satisfied – passive resignation and gradualism.

Tamara C. Wittes & Richard Youngs, January 2009, Saban Center at Brookings, Youngs works for the International Relations Foundation for Exterior Dialogue, Analysis Paper, “Europe, The United States, and Middle Eastern Democracy: Repairing the Breach,” http://www.fride.org/download/OP_Europe_USA_Middle_Demo3_ENG_enero09.pdf

Thus, the BMENA soon became a … of technological progress.

Independently – our forum plank solves the aff better– even if US says no – several reasons

– transatlantic coordination key

signals joint commitment and restores US cred,

increases efficiency and effectiveness of democracy aid

spurs  policy breakthroughs  even if US rejects plan

Wittes and Youngs,  ‘9

( Tamara Cofman Wittes is a Senior Fellow in the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings and directs the Center’s Project on Middle East Democracy and Development., Richard Youngs is Coordinator of the Democratisation programme at FRIDE, “Europe, the United States, and Middle Eastern Democracy: Repairing the Breach”, Brookings analysis paper, January)

Advancing sustainable and … which transatlantic cooperation in the Middle East can, cautiously, be rebuilt.

Increases focus on areas  of expertise, identifies new and future solutions that create “backbone of solid effort for political liberalization”

Amirah-Fernadez and Menedez 9 [Haizam, Seenior Analyst at the Mediterranean and Arab World Program at the Elcano Royal Institute for International and Strategic Studies and Irene, Juan March Foundation, “Reform in Comparative Perspective: US and EU Strategies of Democracy Promotion in the MENA Region after 9/11,” Journal of Contemporary European Studies, Vol. 17, No. 3, 325–338, December]

Be it as it may, rapidly improving … of a solid effort for political liberalisation.

AT – Say No (:45)

About inter Europe policies

Extend 1NC Young

US says yes –

1)         US  already proposed  to commonly plan political aid initiatives on middle east reform – EU was the only barrier

2)         EU has unique leverage because high level US policy makers perceive US baggage requires increased multilateral effort

And they’ll say yes –

Obama’s statements, preferences and QDDR

Helgesen, 11 (Vidar, Secretary-General of International IDEA, The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, is an intergovernmental organization that supports sustainable democracy worldwide, 3/3, http://www.idea.int/resources/analysis/upload/2011-03-03-International-IDEA-NDI-paper-final.pdf)

Recent indications have been that …-Secretary for Democracy and Global Affairs’, are not yet clear.

AT EU Fails

Increased EU democracy assistance 100% inevitable - egypt

Dunne, 11  (Michele, Carnegie Endowment International Peace, 4/22, http://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=43692)

Europe, as Egypt’s most important creditor and trading partner, can play a unique role in supporting Egypt’s transition to democracy and guiding it onto a sound …; that is a given.

Counterplan solves all shortcomings of current EU assistance  and sends independent signal solving aff – 3 reasons

Joint presentation of aff captures US signal

transatlantic coop sends signal of resolve that independently solves

forum spurs sharing that overwhelms current weaknesses in EU assistance

Youngs, ’04  (Richard, Civility Program Director, Research Fellow @ ESDP Democracy, http://fpc.org.uk/fsblob/199.pdf)

9. A European-US Middle East … issue of Middle Eastern political reform.

2NC Solves US Signal Better – A2:  US Lead Role Key

Counterplan solves US signal better – prefer our Youngs evidence – its amazingly specific and comparative  - their ev isn’t as specific as it seems -  “Obama doctrine” or “leading from behind”  in the middle east is about US Libya policy and our role in military policies  – we have the only ev about middle east democracy assistance

Counterplan alone key to solve and restore US cred – US Lead role and funding aren’t key – they only cause hostility and backlash

Hadley, ‘11 (Stephen, Senior Advisor @ US Institute for Peace, Former NSA, 8/18)

We are about to miss a historic … But first the U.S. government needs to organize itself.

We internal link turn all your offense – US support for international EU  led efforts is best – perception of highly visible US lead role guts democratic reform and US cred

Fukuyama and McFaul, ‘8 

Francis Fukuyama is a professor of international political economy and director of the International Development Program at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies

Michael McFaul is a Hoover Senior Fellow, a professor of political science, and director of the Center on Democracy, Development, and Rule of Law at Stanford University. He is also a nonresident associate at

the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a member of TWQ’s editorial board

In his second inaugural address, on …. This neglect of multilateral institutions must end.

Perception is controlled by the winners – their indicts don’t apply if the EU works -  allows Obama to claim victory and silence criticisms of “leading from behind”– Libya proves

Cooper and Meyers, 8/29/11 (Helene and Steven, New York Times)

It would be premature to call … Qaddafi versus the U.S.A.,'' the official said.

Only transatlantic partnership solves policy effectiveness and US signal – US unilateral lead approach causes backlash and turns every aff objective

Diamond, ‘3  (Larry, Hoover Institute, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/8078)

EVEN TO THINK of democratizing … so more softly and subtly, as part of a team.

Only the counterplans collaborative approach can successfully reframe regional perceptions of US

Katulis, ‘9  (Brian, Century Foundation, http://tcf.org/publications/pdfs/pb681/Katulis.pdf)

In addition to taking these steps to … to advance democracy in the Middle East.

Adv One

Civil war inevitable – Russia and China UN vetoes prevent international action which is key to stability

Salmen Shaikh 10/12/11, NYT, Salman Shaikh is director of the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. “preventing a Syrian civil war” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/13/opinion/preventing-a-syrian-civil-war.html?_r=1

LAST week, Russia and China … targeted sanctions on the government.

Sectarianism outweighs the plan – socially engrained

Mona Yacoubian 10/5/11, Yacoubian is a senior program officer for the Middle East at the U.S. Institute of Peace. In November, she will join the Henry L. Stimson Center where she will continue working on the Arab uprisings, foreign policy, “saving Syria from a civil war” http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/10/05/saving_syria_from_civil_war?wpisrc=obinsite

Meanwhile, other developments … control of the city of Rastan.

Even if the plan solves in the long term a short term civil war is inevitable – triggers all the affs impacts

Mona Yacoubian 10/5/11, Yacoubian is a senior program officer for the Middle East at the U.S. Institute of Peace. In November, she will join the Henry L. Stimson Center where she will continue working on the Arab uprisings, foreign policy, “saving Syria from a civil war” http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/10/05/saving_syria_from_civil_war?wpisrc=obinsite

While time is not on the … Tel Aviv, either directly or through proxies in Lebanon.

Iran won’t be aggressive – too many checks in the system

Boroujerdi 7 (Mehrzad, Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Middle Eastern Studies Program, “Iranian Nuclear Miasma”, Syracuse Law Review, 57 Syracuse L. Rev. 619, Lexis)

The potential for groupthink … or miscalculated action less realistic.

Iran has no interest in expansion

Smeland 4 (Sean P., Visiting Fellow – Geneva Centre for Security Policy, “Countering Iranian Nukes: A European Strategy, Nonproliferation Review, Spring,

http://www.gcsp.ch/e/publications/Security_Challenges/WMD/Academic_Papers/Smeland.pdf)

If the Western allies are to succeed … in Iraq or Afghanistan).

Adv 2

Double bind either collapse is inevitable, there’s no timeframe distinction in their evidence about why speeding up collapse helps Russian influence

OR

Collapse is not inevitable—No unified front and groups have no credibility which makes it impossible to overthrow Assad – destroys effectiveness of aid

KATE SEELYE 9/1/11, Kate Seelye is vice president of the Middle East Institute and a former NPR correspondent based in the Middle East. Foreign policy, “Why Can't the Syrian Opposition Get Along?” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/09/01/why_cant_the_syrian_opposition_get_along?page=full

The NTC was created just … wish to assist can go."

Relations high- multiple accomplishment and areas of cooperation

Ria Novosti, 11/2

("Russia-U.S. relations after 2012 elections"en.rian.ru/analysis/20111102/168361206.html)

Well, the main achievements are – … also Russia’s engagement in global economy.

-- Smallpox unlikely

Moodie 1 (Michael, President – Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute, FDCH, 11-7, Lexis)

An example of this kind of … to a decision maker?

-- No intentional use

Washington Post 1 (10-24, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A42547-2001Oct23.html)

How likely, then, is a … "they have to be able to cloak their activities."

-- No risk of Russia war

Ball 5 (Desmond, Professor – Strategic Defence Studies Centre at Australian National University, “The Probabilities of ‘On the Beach’ Assessing Armageddon Scenarios in the 21st Century, May, http://www.manningclark.org.au/papers/se05_ball.html)

The prospects of a nuclear … as underground command and control centres and leadership bunkers).

-- No escalation

Newsday 5 (2-27, Lexis)

Relations between … disagreements not easily resolved.

Heg doesn’t prevent conflict

Crawford 3 (Timothy W., Professor of Political Science – Boston College, Pivotal Deterrence: Third-Party Statecraft and the Pursuit of Peace, p. 209-210)

Forward Engagement, Global Leadership, and U.S. Pivotal Deterrence

As the preponderant power in a globalized and … "jiggle loose" as many deadly conflicts as it knits back together.

No  central Asia war

Weitz 6 (Richard, Senior Fellow and Associate Director of the Center for Future Security Strategies – Hudson Institute, “Averting a New Great Game in Central Asia”, Washington Quarterly, 29(3), Summer, Lexis)

Concerns about a renewed great game are thus … ties traditionally have predominated.

Arms sales key to the Russian economy

Rivlin 5 – Senior Research Fellow at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, Tel Aviv University (Dr. Paul, “The Russian Economy and Arms Exports to the Middle East,” The Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies)

In the years 1994-98, Russian arms … was forced to rely heavily on fluctuating income from oil and gas sales.

Extinction

Filger 9 (Sheldon, Columnist and Founder – Global EconomicCrisis.com, “Russian Economy Faces Disasterous Free Fall Contraction”, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sheldon-filger/russian-economy-faces-dis_b_201147.html)

In Russia, historically, … is its least dangerous consequence.

Sales key to Russian conventional power

WEITZ 7 (Richard, Senior Fellow and Director, Project Management at Hudson Institute, “Russia’s military-industrial complex” June 4, http://cffss.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=4947)

The primary purpose of this … ties with recipient states.

Conventional weakness causes nuclear reliance and nuclear war

Lambert 97 – LAMBERT AND MILLER 1997 (Stephen and David, USAF Institute for National Security Studies, “Russia’s Crumbling Tactical Nuclear Weapons Complex: An Opportunity for Arms Control” April www.usafa.af.mil/inss/OCP/ocp12.pdf)

To compensate for Russia’s current … of a local military commander.

Turn --- sphere of influence --- plan spikes nationalism

Shevtosa 2 – Lilia Shevtosa, Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, RUSSIA AFTER THE FALL, Ed Kuchins, 2002, pp. 74-5

During a period of … means of governing to protect itself.

Nuclear war

Israelyan 98 – Victor Isdraelyan, former Soviet Ambassador, THE WASHINGTON QUARTERLY, Winter, 1998, p. 47

The first and by far most … able to stumble on, until we all fall down together."

Anti-Assad groups will jockey for supremacy – crushes effective aid

KATE SEELYE 9/1/11, Kate Seelye is vice president of the Middle East Institute and a former NPR correspondent based in the Middle East. Foreign policy, “Why Can't the Syrian Opposition Get Along?” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/09/01/why_cant_the_syrian_opposition_get_along?page=full

Given the lack of a recognized leadership, … which was broadcast by Al Jazeera.

Assad regime is inevitable – no opposition groups have legitimacy, Assad won’t negotiate with countries or protesters, he’ll crush movements in Syria

Gary Gambill 7/6/11, Gary Gambill is a political analyst who has published widely on Syrian and Lebanese affairs and is general editor of the Philadelphia-based Middle East Forum, “the hard man of Damascus” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/07/06/the_hard_man_of_damascus?page=0,1&wpisrc=obnetwork

Neither condition exists in Syria. Years of state repression … opponents -- he's trying to divide and defeat them.

Payroll tax cuts - key to the economy

- wind impact addon in 1nr, impact is either enviro collapse or warming

EU Forum cp - sometimes with EU soft power NB

Israel DA

The European Union should propose to the United States Federal Government a higher-level transatlantic forum for coordinating policies on Middle East and North African reform, modeled on  the U.S.-E.U. strategic dialogue on Asia established in 2005.  The European Union should inform the United States Federal Government of its intention to take a lead donor role on _________________________________________.  The European Union should  ______________________________________________________________.  The European Union should offer to include on the forum agenda a joint diplomatic statement of high level transatlantic support for the European initiative.

solves whole case better and key to EU soft power and US – EU strategic parternship – but the perm derails all that

Youngs, ‘4

Richard Youngs is senior researcher at the Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior (FRIDE) in Madrid, and lecturer at the University of Warwick in the UK. He previously worked for the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and coordinated an EU funded research project on democracy in the Middle East, within which he established a network of experts from the Middle East and compiled a series of policy recommendations for the European Commission. Youngs has also acted as consultant to the FCO, DFID and a number of European research institute, the Foreign Policy Center, http://fpc.org.uk/fsblob/352.pdf

Europeans risk becoming so fixated with disassociating the

AND

gradual strengthening and broadening of ongoing EU programmes. 

Our counterplans strategy solves US cred best –

AND

US lead role”  – not on ground implementation

Solomon 8/24 (Daniel, Georgetown

AND

?id=1466&op=yes)

The Libyan people, more than any other

AND

in facilitating multilateral engagement in stabilization and reconstruction.

Counterplan  key to perception of US multilateral leadership

AND

to US leadership, his agenda and the economy

O Hanlon, 9/12/11 

AND

_libya_obama_ohanlon.aspx)

Recent developments in Libya promise to help the

AND

and with it our national power and influence?

That’s key to legitimization and sustainability – solves

AND

of US lead role – we control terminal uniqueness

Diamond ’11  (Larry, Senior Fellow @

AND

-promotion-obama-doctrine/p24621)

Obama spelled out rather intelligently some elements of

AND

approach, but it also may be more sustainable

US role as multilateral coordinator solves best – “lead role” doesn’t require US led implementation on ground

Solomon 8/24 (Daniel, Georgetown

AND

?id=1466&op=yes)

The Libyan people, more than any other

AND

in facilitating multilateral engagement in stabilization and reconstruction.

European burden sharing key to US EU Strategic

AND

US resource burden which is key to prevent isolationism

Jones 11

[Erik Jones, Professor of European Studies

AND

/Quaderni/iairp_01.pdf]

The third point is that the United States

AND

together if either is to achieve its goals.