Michigan State » MSU Caporal Butler Aff

MSU Caporal Butler Aff

Last modified by Administrator on 2012/10/17 22:35
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  • GSU Aff

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:



          • 1AC – MSU Butler Caporal
            PLAN: The United States Federal Government should provide substantial technical assistance for political organization in Egypt.

      Contention 1 is the muslim brotherhood

      The MB is gaining power in Egypt
      Urban 11 (Mark, Diplomatic and Defence Editor – Newsnight (BBC), “Egypt's Islamists Mobilising Mass Support”, BBC News World, 8-3, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-14396488)

      Since Friday a … for so long.

      They’re stronger than ever because of U.S. isolation - “picking winners” creates a perception of hostility that’s the basis of recruiting and radicalism
      Duss 11 (Matthew, Policy Analyst and Director of Middle East Progress – Center for American Progress and MA in Middle East Studies – University of Washington, “Recognizing Reality in the Middle East”, Center for American Progress Report, 7-1, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/07/middle_east_reality.html)

      It appears the …in that direction.

      U.S. assistance gives secular groups the resources and skills necessary to compete and prevent MB control
      Ali 11 (Ayaan Hirsi, Fellow – American Enterprise Institute and Founder – AHA Foundation, “Get Ready for the Muslim Brotherhood”, New York Times, 2-3, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/04/opinion/04iht-edali04.html?page wanted=all)

      Those two experiences … succumb to another.

      Strong demand exists for U.S. technical assistance - including the MB defuses anti-American resistance
      Slavin 11 (Barbara, Senior Fellow – Atlantic Council, Senior Diplomatic Correspondent – USA Today, and Assistant Managing Editor for World and National Security – Washington Times, “U.S. "Democracy" Advisors Suddenly in Demand”, Inter-Press Service, 4-14, http://ipsnews.net/wap/news.asp?idnews=55266)

      For years, U.S. … Brothers in Egypt.

      Making it openly available without restriction enables an effective democratic transition
      Strasser 11 (Max, Cairo-Based Editor – Foreign Policy Magazine, “Can USAID Be a Force For Good In Egypt?”, The Nation, 7-22, http://www.thenation.com/article/162239/can-usaid-be-force-good-egypt)

      In Egypt, as …post-Mubarak, pre-election Egypt.

      A consistent mandate of open access to U.S. democracy aid is critical to shift on-the-ground policy to accommodate the Brotherhood
      Hamid 10 (Shadi, Director of Research – Brookings Doha Center and Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “The Islamist Response to Repression: Are Mainstream Islamist Groups Radicalizing?”, Brookings Doha Center Policy Briefing, August, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/ 2010/0809_islamist_groups_hamid/0809_islamist_groups_hamid.pdf)

      RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE … a substantive agenda. 3

      Even if the Brotherhood takes control, assistance now gives the U.S. leverage to moderate its behavior
      Duss 11 (Matthew, Policy Analyst and Director of Middle East Progress – Center for American Progress and MA in Middle East Studies – University of Washington, “Are We Serious About A Democratic Egypt?”, ThinkProgress Security, 2-4, http://thinkprogress.org/security/2011/02/04/176481/are-we-serious-about-a-democratic-egypt/)

      I agree that … to that idea.

      Engagement undermines MB radicalism. Exclusion drives violent elements underground.
      al-Anani 10 (Khalil, Visiting Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy – Brookings Institution and Assistant to the Managing Editor – al-Siyassa al Dawliya (Cairo Newspaper), “Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood: Opposite Effects”, Ikkwan Web, 3-1, http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=23446)

      Suppression may tax … drive it underground.

      Un-moderated MB control causes global nuclear war
      Rose 11 (Taylor, International Relations and Strategic Intelligence – Liberty University, “The Islamic Revolution Part II”, Youth for Western Civilization, 2-1, http://www.westernyouth.org/articles/the-islamic-revolution-part-ii/)

      The riots in … of her enemies.

      Exclusion fosters radicalism and violence that destabilizes the Middle East
      Philpott 11 (Daniel, Associate Professor of Political Science and Peace Studies – University of Notre Dame, Timothy Shah, Associate Director of the Religious Freedom Project – Georgetown University's Berkley Center for Religion, Peace & World Affairs, and Monica Duffy Toft, Professor of Public Policy – Harvard University and Director – Initiative on Religion in International Affairs, “The Dangers of Secularism in the Middle East”, The Christian Science Monitor, 8-11, Lexis)

      Since the Arab … interests and ideals.

      That goes nuclear and draws in great powers
      Gold 7 (Thomas J., Masters in Strategic Intelligence – Joint Military Intelligence College, Nuclear Conflict in the Middle East: An Analysis of Future Events, p. 53-55)

      If the political, … now a possibility. 

      Contention 2 - WE DA BEST

      U.S. credibility in the Middle East is plummeting
      Zogby 11 (Dr. James J., Founder and President – Arab American Institute, “America in Trouble in the Middle East: Obama Understands, But GOP Gloats”, Huffington Post, 7-16, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-zogby/ameri ca-in-trouble-in-the_b_900649.html?ir=World)

      Well, the results … the entire country.

      Obama won’t follow through on pledged election assistance for Egypt. That devastates regional influence.
      Dorsey 11 (James A., Senior Research Fellow – Middle East Institute, National University of Singapore, “US Risks Missing Opportunity to Play Leading Role in Middle East Transition”, Al Arabiya News, 7-5, http://english.alarabiya .net/articles/2011/07/05/156264.html)

      The window of … promote democratic change. 

      U.S. technical assistance secures credit and revives Arab relations
      Hamid 11 (Shadi, Director of Research – Brookings Doha Center and Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “The Struggle for Middle East Democracy”, Ikhwan Web, 4-28, http://ikhwanmisr.net/article.php?id=28468&ref=search.php)

      The revolutions are … may still fail.

      Making it open reverses “ala carte democracy” and boosts U.S. standing
      Guéhenno 11 (Jean-Marie, Nonresident Senior Fellow – Brookings Institution, “The Arab Spring is 2011, Not 1989”, New York Times, 4-21, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/22/opinion/22iht-edguehenno22.html)

      The Arab revolutions … a sustainable outcome.

      Only unequivocal and clear assistance sends the right message
      HRF 11 (Human Rights First – Nonprofit, Nonpartisan International Human Rights Organization, “How to Seize the Moment in Egypt”, April, http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/wp-content/uploads/pdf/Egypt-Blueprint-Seize-the-Moment.pdf)

      Over more than … government should contribute.

      Tangible signals of U.S. support are critical - Egypt’s the test case
      Elshinnawi 10 (Mohamed, Foreign Affairs Writer – VOA, “Egypt Key to Proving Obama's Commitment to Middle East Democracy”, Voice of America News, 6-30, http://www.voanews.com/english/news/special-reports/american-life/Egypt-Key-to-Proving-Obamas-Commitment-to-Middle-East-Democracy.html)

      There has been … work in progress.

      The impact’s nuclear and biological war in every global hotspot
      Asali 9 (Ziad, President and Founder – American Task Force on Palestine, et al., “Changing Course: A New Direction for U.S. Relations with the Muslim World”, February, p. 9-16)

      Improving relations with …critical challenges abroad.

      It spills over - credible democracy assistance builds US/Arab cooperation on a array of issues - including global economic stability
      Wittes 8 (Tamara Cofman, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs – U.S. Department of State and Former Senior Fellow – Brookings Institution, Freedom's Unsteady March: America's Role in Building Arab Democracy, p. 2-12)

      So it is …of Arab democracy.

      Mideast is critical for the global economy - careful diplomacy’s key to sustain access
      Habibi 9 (Nader, Professor of Economics of the Middle East – Brandeis University and Dr. Eckart Woertz, Director of the Economic Research Program – Gulf Research Center (Dubai), “U.S. - Arab Economic Relations and the
      Obama Administration”, 34, February, http://www.brandeis.edu/crown/publications/meb/MEB34.pdf)

      In this Brief … Middle East conflict.

      Economic collapse causes extinction
      Austin 9 (Michael, Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute, and Desmond Lachman – Resident Fellow – American Enterprise Institute, “The Global Economy Unravels”, Forbes, 3-6, http://www.aei.org/article/100187)

      What do these … a big bang. 

      Egyptian aid boosts regional support necessary for reliable energy access
      HRF 11 (Human Rights First – Nonprofit, Nonpartisan International Human Rights Organization, “How to Seize the Moment in Egypt”, April, http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/wp-content/uploads/pdf/Egypt-Blueprint-Seize-the-Moment.pdf)

      President Obama noted … serve its interests. 

      That prevents shocks that go global
      Cohen 5 (William, Cohen Group, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense, and Chair – CSIS Advisory Committee on U.S. Policy in the Arab World, et al., “From Conflict to Cooperation: Writing a New Chapter in U.S.-Arab Relations”, March, http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/0503_conflictcooperation.pdf)

      Right now, a … that tragic day.

      Extinction
      Riddoch 4 (Dr. Malcolm, Faculty of Communications and Creative Industries – Edith Cowan University, Energy  Bulletin, 6-18, http://www.energybulletin.net/node/729)

      There are lots … famine and pestilence.  

      Oil shocks cause Asian war
      Halloran 8 (Richard, Former Foreign Correspondent in Asia and Military Correspondent – New York Times, “Oil Scarcity Paints a Bleak Picture for Asia”, South China Morning Post, 2-13, Lexis)

      A fresh assessment … across the region.

      Goes global and nuclear
      Landay 00 (Jonathan S., National Security and Intelligence Correspondent, Knight Ridder/Tribune News Service, 3-10, Lexis)

      Few if any … the Commerce Department.



11/11/11

  • Kentucky Aff

    • Tournament: Kentucky | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • = Adv 1 = (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt;" %)PLAN: The United States Federal Government should provide substantial technical assistance for political organization in Egypt (% class="MsoNormal" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Contention 1 ~-~-- __Muslim Brotherhood__(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)They’re winning(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Woods 9-20(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (Amy, Award-Winning International Journalist – ABC News, and Ashley Martella, “Egyptian Leader Ahmed Said: Muslim Brotherhood Eclipses New Political Parties”, NewsMax, 2011, http:~/~/www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/AhmedSaid-Egypt-MuslimBrotherhood/2011/09/20/id/411627) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Egypt should postpone its(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) first (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)elections(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) following the (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)to change(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) the scene again(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %),” he said. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)They’re stronger than ever __because of U.S. isolation__ ~-~-- “picking winners” creates a perception of hostility that’s the basis of recruiting and radicalism(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Duss 11(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (Matthew, Policy Analyst and Director of Middle East Progress – Center for American Progress and MA in Middle East Studies – University of Washington, “Recognizing Reality in the Middle East”, Center for American Progress Report, 7-1, http:~/~/www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/07/middle_east_reality.html) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)It appears the U.S. government (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Clinton’s comments were a step in that direction. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)U.S. assistance gives secular groups the __resources__ and __skills__ necessary to compete and prevent MB control(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Ali 11(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (Ayaan Hirsi, Fellow – American Enterprise Institute and Founder – AHA Foundation, “Get Ready for the Muslim Brotherhood”, New York Times, 2-3, [[http:~~/~~/www.nytimes.com/2011/02/04/opinion/04iht-edali04.html?page>>http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/04/opinion/04iht-edali04.html?page]] wanted=all) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Those two experiences gave me some insights that (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt;" %)one (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow" %)tyranny aside could easily succumb to another(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %). === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~" ~"serif~"; text-decoration: none" %)__ __(%%) === === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)__Strong demand__ exists for U.S. technical assistance ~-~-- including the MB defuses anti-American resistance(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Slavin 11(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (Barbara, Senior Fellow – Atlantic Council, Senior Diplomatic Correspondent – USA Today, and Assistant Managing Editor for World and National Security – Washington Times, “U.S. "Democracy" Advisors Suddenly in Demand”, Inter-Press Service, 4-14, http:~/~/ipsnews.net/wap/news.asp?idnews=55266) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)For years, U.S. officials (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)parties formed by the Muslim Brothers in Egypt. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Making it __openly available without restriction__ enables an effective democratic transition(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Strasser 11(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (Max, Cairo-Based Editor – Foreign Policy Magazine, “Can USAID Be a Force For Good In Egypt?”, The Nation, 7-22, http:~/~/www.thenation.com/article/162239/can-usaid-be-force-good-egypt) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)In Egypt(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %),(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) as in much of the (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)post-Mubarak, (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~" ~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow" %)pre-election Egypt(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)That moderates the MB ~-~-- a consistent mandate’s key(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Hamid 10(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (Shadi, Director of Research – Brookings Doha Center and Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “The Islamist Response to Repression: Are Mainstream Islamist Groups Radicalizing?”, Brookings Doha Center Policy Briefing, August, [[http:~~/~~/www.brookings.edu/~~~~/media/Files/rc/papers/>>http://www.brookings.edu/%7E/media/Files/rc/papers/]] 2010/0809_islamist_groups_hamid/0809_islamist_groups_hamid.pdf) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Islamist (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~" ~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow" %)leaders(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) often (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)speak of an (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//“American// (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//AND// (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//-hoc meetings//(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %) lack(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)ing (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~" ~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow" %)a substantive agenda(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %). 3 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)MB control causes __social repression__ ~-~-- collapses the economy and causes refugee flows that destabilize Europe(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Ali 11(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (Ayaan Hirsi, Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute, “Will the Muslim Brotherhood Succeed (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Where Osama Failed?”, New Perspectives Quarterly, 28(3), Summer, p. 21-22) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)AT H O M E | In order (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %). But the doctrine of jihad lives on. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Egypt will __melt down__ into state collapse(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Coleman 11(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (Isabel, Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy – Council on Foreign Relations, “Egypt’s Economic Woes”, 5-20, [[http:~~/~~/www.isobelcoleman.com/2011/05/20/egypts-economic-woes/>>http://www.isobelcoleman.com/2011/05/20/egypts-economic-woes/]]) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Egypt(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) in particular (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~" ~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow" %)is (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//staggering economically//(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %), (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)and (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)a dent in its high level of unemployment. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Escalates to global conflict(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Copley 11(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (Gregory O., Editor – Global Information System and Defense & Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy, “Strategic Ramifications of the Egyptian Crisis”, World Tribune, 2-1, http:~/~/www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/ WTARC/2011/me_egypt0088_02_01.asp) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)In the Preface to the Defense & Foreign (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)the re-emergence of a charismatic leader. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Mass refugee influxes cause European hyper-nationalism(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Greenblatt 11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)(Alan, NPR, “Arab Refugees Finding Harsh Welcome In Europe,” 3-18-11, http:~/~/www.scpr.org/news/2011/03/18/25092/arab-refugees-finding-harsh-welcome-in-europe/) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Thousands are fleeing(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) across the Mediterranean (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~" ~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow" %)from North (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)could become too many refugees for many people(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)." (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)They’ll scapegoat refugees – causing geopolitical jockeying that goes nuclear(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Karlin 9 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Anatoly Karlin is a San Francisco based independent writer, political analyst, Editing Professional, and media critic. He is also the author of the blog Sublime Oblivion focusing on the Russia, geopolitics and future global trends. His articles have appeared in The Guardian PSJ and The Discovery Institute's Real Russia Project, Sublime Strategic Report #10 – October 23, 2009 – available at: http:~/~/www.sublimeoblivion.com/2009/10/23/ssr10-europe-black-continent/. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)However, (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)conservatives who fear the coming of (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//AND// (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//deterrence power of nuclear weapons will fall dramatically//(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Extinction(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading2Char3" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Elliot 7(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (Jeffrey M., North Carolina Central University and Robert Reginald, California State University, San Bernandino, The Arms Control, Disarmament, and Military Security Dictionary, p. 19-20) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Escalation of War (15) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Increasing, enlarging, or intensifying the nature (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %), 20; TOTAL. WAR. 32. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Even instability causes extinction via __economic collapse__, __warming__, and __global conflicts__(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading2Char3" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Stokes 10(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (Bruce, International Economics Columnist – National Journal, “Greek Tragedy Haunts Global Markets, Policies”, YaleGlobal, 3-17, http:~/~/www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/opinon/2010/03/137_62527.html) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)To paraphrase the noted economist Woody Allen, (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)articulate forcefully US interests in their crisis management. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) = Adv 2 = === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Contention 2 ~-~-- __Global Engagement__(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)High-level technical assistance drives an __overall trend__ to U.S./Muslim engagement(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Asali 9(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (Ziad, President and Founder – American Task Force on Palestine, et al., “Changing Course: A New Direction for U.S. Relations with the Muslim World”, February, p. 48-54) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//Provide //(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//top-level U.S.// (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//AND// (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//not serious//(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %) about (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//political liberalization//(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %) in Muslim countries(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Starting with the Egyptian Brotherhood is key to make the spillover effective ~-~-- it has __unique ties__ that open up channels of communication and the __signal__ of the plan brings Islamic groups to the table(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Stacher 7(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (Joshua, Professor of Political Science – Kent State University, Former Professor of Egyptian History – American University (Cairo), and Post-Doctoral Fellow in Middle Eastern Studies – Syracuse University, “Hear Out Muslim Brotherhood”, Boston Globe, 3-25, http:~/~/www.merip.org/newspaper_opeds/oped032507) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)On a quiet, one-way street (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)group(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) in the region (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~" ~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow" %)than Egypt’s (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//M//(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)uslim (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//B//(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)rotherhood. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)That creates a __global model__ for extremist moderation(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Phillips 11(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (David L., Director of the Program on Peacebuilding and Rights – Columbia University’s Institute for the Study of Human Rights, “Talking to the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt”, Daily News of Egypt, 3-30, http:~/~/www.thedailynewsegypt.com/columnists/talking-to-the-muslim-brotherhood-of-egypt.html) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)The (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Obama(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) administration (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)cannot ignore that the Brotherhood (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)ideology and becoming (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//constructively involved//(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %) in democratic governance(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Impacts ~-~--(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)First ~-~-- Pakistan(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Engagement’s key to stability ~-~-- U.S. secularism drives extremism(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Farr 8(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (Thomas, Visiting Professor of Religion and Foreign Affairs – Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, “Diplomacy in an Age of Faith Subtitle: Religious Freedom and National Security”, Foreign Affairs, March / April, Lexis) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)DESECULARIZING DIPLOMACY How can (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)a new strategy on (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)to a(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) foreign policy (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~" ~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow" %)establishment (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//blinded by secularism//(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Now’s key ~-~-- anti-Americanism is escalating and destabilizes Afghanistan ~-~-- US/Muslim engagement solves(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Maginnis 8-18(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (Robert, Retired Army lieutenant Colonel and National Security Analyst, “Muslim World More Anti-American Than Ever”, Human Events, 2011, http:~/~/www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=45588) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Third, (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Pakistan(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %), an erstwhile ally (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)armed (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %), and assume tougher political and military policies. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Afghan instability causes __Russian__ and __Chinese__ global aggression(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Weinstein 4(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (Dr. Michael A., Power and Interest News Report, 11-12, [[http:~~/~~/www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_printable&report_id=235&language_id=1>>http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_printable&report_id=235&language_id=1]]) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Style4Char" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)The (% class="Style4Char" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~" ~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow" %)persistence of insurgencies in Afghanistan(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) and Iraq (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)//AND// (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)//crisis//(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) or a (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//burst of ultra-nationalism//(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Russian aggression causes global nuclear war(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Blank 99(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (Steven, Professor of Research – Strategic Studies Institute of US Army War College, Oil and Geopolitics in the Caspian Region, p. 31-32) (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in;" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)The regional structure of political force does little (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)has willing proxies capable of settling the situation(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)So does China(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Walton 7(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (C. Dale, Lecturer in International Relations and Strategic Studies – University of Reading, Geopolitics and the Great Powers in the 21st Century, p. 49) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Obviously, it is of vital importance to (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)is not marked by close great power alliances. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Pakistan instability risks global nuclear conflict ~-~-- moderating Islamists is key(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Pitt 9(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (William, New York Times and Internationally Bestselling Author, “Unstable Pakistan Threatens the World”, 5-8, Arab American News, [[http:~~/~~/www.arabamericannews.com/news/index.php?mod=article&cat=commentary&>>http://www.arabamericannews.com/news/index.php?mod=article&cat=commentary&]] article=2183) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)But a suicide bomber in Pakistan rammed a (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)addressing the situation. So should we all. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Even without collapse, the U.S. will __strike Pakistan__ ~-~-- sparks __nuclear World War III__(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)McBride 7(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (Daniel R., Montreal-Based Writer, “From the Torching of the Louvain to Bomber Harris”, Moderate Observer, 8-1, http:~/~/moderate.wordpress.com/2007/08/01/lessons-from-bomber-harris-if-the-us-strikes-pakistan/) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)One can imagine Musharraf is desperate to remove (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)missiles), and even India, (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//within hours//(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Second ~-~-- Turkey(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Egypt policy __spills over__ to build cooperation with Turkey(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Freeman 7(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (Chas W., Director – Atlantic Council and Former U.S. Ambassador – Saudi Arabia, “U.S. Foreign Policy and the Arab World (Part II)”, The Globalist, 8-21, [[http:~~/~~/www.theglobalist.com/StoryId.aspx?StoryId=6314>>http://www.theglobalist.com/StoryId.aspx?StoryId=6314]]) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)*Note – this card continues to part 3 of the article (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)It is clear that (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)the (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)//U//(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)nited (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)//S//(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)tates (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)must (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Southeast Asia as well as key countries like Nigeria (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)It’s unique ~-~-- Turkey’s sliding toward radical Islam ~-~-- risks anti-American aggression(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Maginnis 8-18(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (Robert, Retired Army lieutenant Colonel and National Security Analyst, “Muslim World More Anti-American Than Ever”, Human Events, 2011, http:~/~/www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=45588) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Second, (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//Turkey is on a glide path// (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)transformation, (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~" ~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow" %)which bodes poorly for(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) American (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~" ~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow" %)influence(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Impact’s global war(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Sitilides 97(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (John, Executive Director of the Western Policy Center, a Government Relations Specialist, and Formerly Served as the Executive Assistant to Senator D’Amato, 5/19/1997 (“Dividing the Aegean Sea: A Plan in Progress?” – The Hellenic Resources Institute) http:~/~/www.hri.org/forum/intpol/sitil.html) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)As long as geopolitical and strategic considerations ~-~- such as Iranian muscle-flexing, Iraqi aggression, untapped Caspian oil reserves, and Israeli-Syrian tensions ~-~- dominate American interests in the region, legal matters such as (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Greece's protections(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) under international law, as well as the ongoing occupation of Cyprus, (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)will remain relegated(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) as secondary impediments to a strong U.S.-Turkish relationship. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Greece must transform its insistence on legal protections (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)a nation-state which no longer exists. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)//__Each scenario__// risks global nuclear war(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Landay 00(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (Jonathan S., National Security and Intelligence Correspondent, Knight Ridder/Tribune News Service, 3-10, Lexis) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Style11ptUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~" ~"serif~"; text-decoration: none" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Style11ptUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Few(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) if any experts (% class="Style11ptUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)think China and Taiwan (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)last year, according to the Commerce Department. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Turkish aggression sparks __naval conflicts__ with Israel and Greece(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Champion 9-9(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (Marc, Turkish Bureau Chief – WSJ, “Turkey Takes a Harder Line Abroad”, Wall Street Journal, 2011, http:~/~/online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904103404576558511184832354.html) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Turkey is showing(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) signs of(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) trading its vaunted (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)professor of (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)international relations at(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) Istanbul's (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Bilgi(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) University. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)That draws-in great powers and escalates to World War III(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Jacobs 11(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (Cindy, President – Generals International, “Regional Conflict Could Spark World War III”, Charisma, 4-13, http:~/~/www.charismamag.com/index.php/news-old/30682-regional-conflict-could-spark-world-war-iii) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Many people have been asking me to update (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)as a secular state, (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)this could change(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Moderating Turkish Islamism’s vital to NATO effectiveness(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Inbar 11(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (Efraim, Professor of Political Studies – Bar-Ilan University and Director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, “Israeli-Turkish Tensions and their International Ramifications”, Orbis, Winter, p. 145) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Turkey’s new positioning will undoubtedly facilitate the ability (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)stop(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) potential (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)leaks and tech(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)nology (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~"; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)transfer(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) to Iran(% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Global nuclear war(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)Brezezinski 9(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (Zbigniew, Former U.S. National Security Adviser, “An Agenda for NATO”, Foreign Affairs, 88(5), September / October, Ebsco) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)NATO's potential is not primarily military. Although (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)the United States and the West more generally. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt;" %)Only __unequivocal__ and __clear__ assistance sends the right message(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt;" %)HRF 11(%%) (Human Rights First – Nonprofit, Nonpartisan International Human Rights Organization, “How to Seize the Moment in Egypt”, April, [[http:~~/~~/www.humanrightsfirst.org/wp-content/uploads/pdf/Egypt-Blueprint-Seize-the-Moment.pdf>>http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/wp-content/uploads/pdf/Egypt-Blueprint-Seize-the-Moment.pdf]]) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Over more than three decades since the Camp (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)the U.S. government should contribute. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) === (% style="font-size: 10pt;" %)U.S. technical assistance __secures credit__ and revives Arab relations(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 10pt;" %)Hamid 11(%%) (Shadi, Director of Research – Brookings Doha Center and Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “The Struggle for Middle East Democracy”, Ikhwan Web, 4-28, [[http:~~/~~/ikhwanmisr.net/article.php?id=28468&ref=search.php>>http://ikhwanmisr.net/article.php?id=28468&ref=search.php]]) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)The (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt;" %)revolutions are far from complete(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %). Tunisia (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt;" %)to helping democratize a still-troubled region(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//A great deal is at stake//(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %). America was rightly (% style="font-size: 10pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//credited//(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %) for helping facilitate transitions in(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt;" %) many (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow" %)Eastern Europe(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt;" %)an (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow" %)and Latin America(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt;" %)n countries. (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow" %)If the U.S. is seen as helping(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt;" %) make another transition possible, this time (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow" %)in Egypt(% style="font-size: 8pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %), (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Tunisia, and elsewhere, (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)it will (% style="font-size: 10pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//give Americans much-needed credibility in the region//(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %). Success(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt;" %)ful transitions (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow" %)could herald a (% style="font-size: 10pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//reimagined relationship between the U//(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)//nited //(% style="font-size: 10pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//S//(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)//tates //(% style="font-size: 10pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//and the Arab world//(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt;" %), something that Obama promised(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) in his 2009 Cairo address (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt;" %)but failed to deliver on(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)To be sure, the United States has (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt;" %)their democratic aspirations. This has not happened. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Egypt(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) and Tunisia, despite all their problems, (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)remain the (% style="font-size: 10pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//most promising cases//(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %). Elsewhere, the situation is considerably more grave, with U.S.-backed autocrats in Yemen and Bahrain having used unprecedented force against their own citizens. Saudi Arabia’s military intervention in Bahrain has fanned the flames of regional sectarianism and made an already explosive situation even worse. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Thus far, the (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Obama(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) administration (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)has been (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt;" %). (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow" %)Otherwise,(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt;" %) their (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow" %)revolutions may(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt;" %) still (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow" %)fail(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"10~",~"serif~";" %)




11/11/11

  • 2AC SKFTA

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • ***GSU*** TAA blocks NAWG, National Association of Wheat Growers, 9-9-2011 http://southeastfarmpress.com/government/small-steps-taken-trade-agreements The agreements — negotiated ………….Republicans disagree with. Opposition parties will literally start a fight to block it Asia Pulse 9-1 (“Clash Looms in S. Korean Parliament Over FTA With U.S.”, 2011, Lexis) The ruling Grand …………. and chain saw. Limited engagement triggers the link Rubin 11 (Barry, Director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and Editor – Middle East Review, “A Major U.S. Policy Shift Toward the Muslim Brotherhood Disguised”, Rubin Reports, 6-30, http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/06/30/us-policy-shift-toward-the-muslim-brotherhood/) Here’s the headline: “……….. Brotherhood, even tentatively. Massive battle coming over disaster relief – its top of docket Taylor, 9/15 (Andrew, AP Writer focused on congressional issues since 1990, AP Financial Wire) House Republicans have …………….. of the way." Broad support for MB engagement --- media and powerful lobbies spin the plan to be popular Mauro 11 (Ryan, National Security Adviser – Christian Action Network, Founder – World Threats, and Frequent Contributor – Fox News, “Who Will Shape Obama’s Policy on Egypt?”, Front Page Magazine, 2-9, http://frontpagemag.com/2011/02/09/who-will-shape-obamas-policy-on-egypt/) The U.S. is ……………Muslim outreach partners.-- Action on Egypt is bipart Negrin 11 (Matt, staff writer for Politico, “Biden: 'Pivotal moment' in Egypt”, 2-11-11, http://www.politico.com/politico44/perm/0211/vp_speaks_first_73cc39c5-5ffb-4c3a-88a0-e458fcf3bf1a.html) Egyptian President Hosni ………. fateful days ahead." USAID does the plan Carothers 9 (Thomas, Vice President for Studies – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “Revitalizing U.S. Democracy Assistance: The Challenge of USAID”, Carnegie Report, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/revi talizing_democracy_assistance.pdf) President Obama and …………process of revitalization. That avoids the link Schoenbrod 93 (David, Professor of Law – New York Law School, Adjunct Scholar – Cato Institute and Former Staff Attorney and Co-Director – Project on Urban Transportation, Power Without Responsibility, p. 9-10) Delegation, Like Budget ………… of the apple." Aid to Egypt avoids spending debates ABC News 11 (“US to carve $61 billion off budget,” 2-20-11, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-02-20/us-to-carve-61-billion-off-budget/1949516) "When we say ……. Iraq and Afghanistan. Winners win Singer 9 (Jonathan -- senior writer and editor for MyDD. Singer is perhaps best known for his various interviews with prominent politicians. His interviews have included John Kerry, Walter Mondale, Bob Dole, Michael Dukakis, and George McGovern, Barack Obama, John Edwards, and Tom Vilsack. He has also also interviewed dozens of senatorial, congressional and gubernatorial candidates all around the country. In his writing, Singer primarily covers all aspects of campaigns and elections, from polling and fundraising to opposition research and insider rumors. He has been quoted or cited in this capacity by Newsweek, The New York Times, USA Today, The Politico, and others. My Direct Democracy, 3-3-09, http://www.mydd.com/story/2009/3/3/191825/0428)-------- From the latest ……… war in Iraq. ***NEW KENTUCKY CARDS*** It’s resilient Ireland 9 (Corydon, Harvard News Office, Harvard Gazette, 9-14, http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2009/09/firm-allies-past-and-present/#) In a conversation … presence, she said. No SKFTA Knox 9-23 (Oliver, Reporter – AFP, Agence France Presse, 2011, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ ALeqM5iT_WTzuLhk0B05jVcp45Twh8f4oA?docId=CNG.156d3cefd419e60ff44c454055dd53e3.21) US free trade …opposition early on. Jobs, campaigning, China bashing and the supercommittee all thump the link and are the top of the docket Miami Herald, 9-30-2011 http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/09/30/2432914/as-obama-presses-passage-of-his.html Congress is highly …Obama's jobs plan. China thumps the link and the impact- controversial and anti-trade Manu Raju is a congressional reporter at POLITICO. Prior to joining POLITICO, Raju covered the Senate leadership for The Hill newspaper, and before that, he reported for Congressional Quarterly, 9-28-2011 http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/64571.html When Senate Majority … least so far.”




10/10/11

  • 2AC Egypt FTA CP

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • FTA’s too slow, Egypt says no, and it links to politics Dadush 11 (Uri, Director of the International Economics Program – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Michele Dunne, Director of the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East – Atlantic Council, “American and European Responses to the Arab Spring: What’s the Big Idea?”, Washington Quarterly, Fall, p. 142-143)
      U.S. and European … not actually prosecuted. 

      MB will reject the FTA IkhwanWeb 5 (“Egypt’s Election Outcome May Threaten Economic Relations”, 12-5, http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=5195)
       Egypt’s election outcome ………… is already 600%. 

      But not the plan --- it’s unique Maaty 11 (Amira, Program Officer, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) at the National Endowment for Democracy, “How Can the U.S. and International Finance Institutions Best Engage Egypt’s Civil Society?” June 2011, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2011/06_egypt_civil_society/06_egypt_civil_society.pdf)
      A survey of …….. and communication efforts.-- 

       ) Links to politics Donnelly 11 (Ambassador Shaun Donnelly has served as a U.S. diplomat in Egypt and Tunisia, as assistant U.S. trade representative for the Middle East and Europe, and as vice president for the Middle East at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, “The Neglected Pillar: America's Economic Agenda in the Middle East,” 6-22-11, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3373)
      Trade promotion and ………….. the Middle East. 

      Congress will backlash to Egypt FTA Ibrahim 6 (Mounir, Reporter – World Press Review, “Egypt's Political Crossroads”, World Press, 2-27, http://www.worldpress.org/Mideast/2275.cfm)
      Egyptian President Hosni …….next four years. 

       ) Increasing spending is key to signal our commitment to democracy Arkedis 11 (Jim, director of the Progressive Policy Institute’s National Security Project, “5 Things That Should Be in Obama’s Speech on the Middle East,” 5-19-11, http://progressivefix.com/5-things-that-should-be-in-obamas-speech-on-the-middle-east) A Plan of … by its source. 

      ( ) Technical assistance is key to follow through on our commitment to democracy Guirguis 11 (Dina, fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, “Egypt's Transition: One Step Forward, Two Steps Back,” 3-29-11, http://washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3339)
      During this transition … to do so.




10/10/11

  • Add-Ons

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • ***IRF*** Funding the MB’s key to U.S. credibility on religious freedom --- solves global nuclear conflicts Farr 8 (Thomas F., Professor of Religion and International Affairs – Georgetown's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and Director – Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs, “Diplomacy in an Age of Faith Subtitle: Religious Freedom and National Security”, Foreign Affairs, March / April, Lexis)-- DESECULARIZATION AND ITS …U.S. national security. ***Suez Canal*** MB radicals will shut down the Suez Canal --- collapsing the European economy Hilliker 11 (Joel, Columnist – The Trumpet, “Will the Muslim Brotherhood Close the Suez Canal?”, The Trumpet, 2-2, http://www.thetrumpet.com/?q=7928.6537.0.0)-------- Almost immediately after … a European power. Independently -- Suez closure causes US intervention and escalatory nuclear war Nazemroaya 11 (Mahdi Darius, Research Associate – Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), “The Division of Egypt: Threats of US, Israeli, and NATO Military Intervention?”, 2-13, http://www.setyoufreenews.com/2011/02/division-of-egypt-threats-of-us-israeli.html)-------- Recall the 1956 …and domestic militarization. ***Cred*** The impact’s nuclear and biological war in every global hotspot Asali 9 (Ziad, President and Founder – American Task Force on Palestine, et al., “Changing Course: A New Direction for U.S. Relations with the Muslim World”, February, p. 9-16) Improving relations with … critical challenges abroad. ***Warming*** Extinction Tickell 8 (Oliver, Climate Researcher and Author – Kyoto2, “On a Planet 4C Hotter, All We Can Prepare For is Extinction”, The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange) We need to …national emission rights.




10/10/11

  • 2AC Orientalism K

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • === (% class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(77, 77, 77); font-size: 14px; line-height: 19px; " %) (%%) ===


    • ( ) And – Anti-Politics dooms their project, threatens the planet, and cedes politics to the Right.
      Boggs ’97 (CARL BOGGS – Professor and Ph.D. Political Science, National University, Los Angeles  Theory and Society 26: 741-780)
      The false sense …………… from civil society.75  

      Prior questions are reductionist – they’re not explanatory and paralyze politics
      Owen 2 (David Owen, Reader of Political Theory at the Univ. of Southampton,  Millennium Vol 31 No 3 2002 p. 655-7)

      Commenting on the ………….vicious circle arises.

      Refusing to debate credible threats leads to war
      Walt 91 (Professor of Political Science, University of Chicago, [Stephen Walt, Professor of Political Science, University of Chicago, INTERNATIONAL STUDIES QUARTERLY, p. 229-30])
      A recurring theme ………. avenue of influence.

      Focus on orientalism dooms the alternative
      Valbjørn 4 [Morten, PhD Poli. Sci. @ Aarhus, “Culture Blind and Culture Blinded: Images of Middle Eastern Conflicts in International Relations,” in Middle East and Palestine: Global Politics and Regional Conflict, p. 67-8]
      As mentioned before, ………..offering attractive answers. 

      Some states are genuine threats.
      Kydd 97 – Professor of Political Science of California, Riverside, SECURITY STUDIES, Autumn 1997 p. 154
      As for the …not security concerns.  

      CASE SOLVES THE CRITICISM NOT THE OTHER WAY AROUND – the 1AC denies Orientalists the ability to control the march to war – this is the type of critical engagement Said advocates
      Said, professor at Columbia University, 2003
      (Edward, Counterpunch, 8/05,  http://www.counterpunch.org/said08052003.html gjm)

      The terrible conflicts … action and reaction.



11/11/11

  • 2AC Cred Advantage CP

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:



    • Visible U.S. action is key to boost credibility
      Ebeld 7
      (Hanaa M., Specialist, development studies; Egypt, “Money Can’t Buy Love: USAID Assistance to Egypt,” Arab Insights 1(2), Fall 2007, http://www.arabinsight.org/aiarticles/176.pdf)
      The recent revisions ………….. the United States.

      U.S. signal’s key
      Russell 11 (Gerard, Research Fellow at the Kennedy School of Government – Harvard University, and Mina Al-Oraibi, Bureau Chief – Asharq Al-Awsat (World’s Largest Pan-Arab Daily Newspaper), “The Trust Deficit: Seven
      Steps Forward for U.S. — Arab Dialogue”, Washington Quarterly, Summer, http://www.twq.com/11summer/docs/ 11summer_Al-Oraibi_Russell.pdf)
      The United ……….in that direction.

      (   ) Increasing spending is key to signal our commitment to democracy
      Arkedis 11
      (Jim, director of the Progressive Policy Institute’s National Security Project, “5 Things That Should Be in Obama’s Speech on the Middle East,” 5-19-11, http://progressivefix.com/5-things-that-should-be-in-obamas-speech-on-the-middle-east)
      A Plan of …………… by its source.

      (   ) Rhetoric isn’t enough – Obama must deliver on aid to sustain credibility
      Vicenzino 11 (Marco, Founder and Director – Global Strategy Project and JD – Georgetown Law, “The Obama Administration, the G8, and Middle East Dynamics”, Aspenia Online, 6-6, http://m.aspeninstitute.it/aspenia-online/article/obama-administration-g8-and-middle-east-dynamics)
      Although the future …………. and repressive systems.  

      (  ) Technical assistance is key to follow through on our commitment to democracy
      Guirguis 11
      (Dina, fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, “Egypt's Transition: One Step Forward, Two Steps Back,” 3-29-11, http://washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3339)

      During this transition ………. effort to do so.



11/11/11

  • 2AC Trade-Off DA

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • \\


    • (   ) Democracy assistance to Egypt will increase in the FY12 budget – it’s inevitable
      McInerney 11
      (Stephen, Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy, “The Federal Budget and Appropriations
      for Fiscal Year 2012,” July 2011, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf)

      The Middle East ………… reversal is welcome. 

      No link – funding would come out of a regional response budget – really
      Stephen McInerney serves as POMED's Director for Legislative Affairs and Editor of the POMED Wire blog. He has more than six years experience in the region, including graduate studies of Middle Eastern politics, history, and the Arabic language at the American University in Cairo and the American University of Beirut., July 2011, “The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012,” http://www.boell.org/downloads/FY2012_Budget_Report_revised_-_web.pdf
      Transitions in the ………… Yemen, or elsewhere.

      And, even if they win internal tradeoffs it would come from unspent funds already allocated for Egypt
      Stephen McInerney serves as POMED's Director for Legislative Affairs and Editor of the POMED Wire blog. He has more than six years experience in the region, including graduate studies of Middle Eastern politics, history, and the Arabic language at the American University in Cairo and the American University of Beirut., July 2011, “The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012,” http://www.boell.org/downloads/FY2012_Budget_Report_revised_-_web.pdf
      Transitions in the ………… this historic moment.   

      (   ) No trade-off  funding isn’t zero-sum
      Kurz 2K
      (Ester, Legislative Director – AIPAC, Middle East Quarterly, June, http://www.meforum.org/article/63)

      Kurz: It's not ……………. broader educational process.

      (   ) Fiat means the plan is emergency spending - this doesn’t trade-off
      Castle 1
      (Representative, March 8, FDCH, Lexis)

      Briefly, here is ……………. Persian Gulf War). 

      (   ) USAID spending increases are coming in FY12
      ASTMH 11
      (American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, “The President's Fiscal Year 2012 Budget,” 2-24-11, http://www.astmh.org/source/blog/post.cfm/the-president-s-fiscal-year-2012-budget)

      USAID Global ……..million in FY2010.

      (   ) Spending increases are coming in the FY12 budget
      Izumi 11
      (Lance T., Koret Senior Fellow and senior director of education studies at the Pacific Research Institute, “Obama 2012 budget boosts federal spending on failed education programs,” 3-6-11, http://washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/op-eds/2011/03/obama-2012-budget-boosts-federal-spending-failed-education-programs)
      Despite his newfound ……….raise student performance.



11/11/11
10/10/11

  • 2AC Russia DA

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • ( ) Russian influence in Egypt is down now AND they don’t care about Egypt RFERL 11 (Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, internally cites Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor-in-Chief of the Russia in Global Affairs journal, “Russia Is Impotent When It Comes To Influencing Events In Egypt, But It Doesn't Care,” 2-11-11, http://www.rferl.org/content/egypt_russia_lukyanov/2306299.html) During the Cold …Russia to help. ( ) Russia has zero influence in Egypt – and a radical takeover would kill their influence Mifthah 11 (Mohideen, staff writer for Times Online, “Egypt forces Mideast rethink in cautious Russia,” 2-5-11, http://sundaytimes.lk/analysis/4587-egypt-forces-mideast-rethink-in-cautious-russia.html) Russia has taken …one,” Lukyanov said. Egypt aid is non-unique and inevitable --- we’re picking winners now, seen as manipulation --- that’s Duss and Guéhenno Relations collapsing Blankley 9-28 (Tony, Executive Vice President – Edelman Public Relations, “President's Foreign Policy Failures Increase”, RealClearPolitics, 2011, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/09/28/presidents_foreign_ policy_failures_increase_111498.html) President Obama, like …year's presidential race. No US/Russia war Ball 5 (Desmond, Professor – Strategic Defence Studies Centre at Australian National University, “The Probabilities of ‘On the Beach’ Assessing Armageddon Scenarios in the 21st Century, May, http://www.manningclark.org.au/papers/se05_ball.html) The prospects … and leadership bunkers). Egypt isn’t key Lukyanov 11 (Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, internally cites Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor-in-Chief of the Russia in Global Affairs journal, “Russia Is Impotent When It Comes To Influencing Events In Egypt, But It Doesn't Care,” 2-11-11, http://www.rferl.org/content/egypt_russia_lukyanov/2306299.html) During the Cold War, … Russia to help. MB takeover turns the DA Mifthah 11 (Mohideen, staff writer for Times Online, “Egypt forces Mideast rethink in cautious Russia,” 2-5-11, http://sundaytimes.lk/analysis/4587-egypt-forces-mideast-rethink-in-cautious-russia.html) Russia has taken … one,” Lukyanov said.




10/10/11
11/11/11

  • 2AC UN CP

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:


    • Plan doesn’t specify direct aid - it says “for” - which only defines Egypt as the eventual recipient
      OED 11 (Oxford English Dictionary, “for”, http://oxforddictionaries.com/definition/for?view=uk)

      preposition
      1 in support of … for London tomorrow

      “Its” means associated with
      Oxford Dictionary 10 (“Of”, http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/its?view=uk)

      Pronunciation:/ɪts/
      possessive determiner
      … for its atmosphere 

      “Democracy assistance” includes intermediaries
      Toornstra 10 (Dick, Office for the Promotion of Parliamentary Democracy, “Getting Acquainted: Setting the Stage for Democracy Assistance”, http://www.europarl.europa.eu/pdf/oppd/Page_8/getting_acquainted_web.pdf)

      Democracy assistance – one …for Democratisation (2000), page 5

      Doesn’t solve the Brotherhood - direct US/Muslim contact’s critical
      Scott 11 (Giles Scott-Smith, Ernst van der Beugel Chair in Transatlantic Diplomatic History – Leiden University and Assistant Professor in International Relations – Roosevelt Academy and Senior Researcher – Roosevelt Study Centre, “The Heineken Factor? Using Exchanges to Extend the Reach of U.S. Soft Power” , American Diplomacy, 6-13, http://www.unc.edu/depts/diplomat/item/2011/0104/comm/scottsmith_heineken.html)

      In a period …extending U.S. influence.

      Indirect delivery doesn’t boost US/Muslim relations
      Ezell 10 (Darrell, Ph.D. in Theology and Religion – University of Birmingham, “Diplomacy and US-Muslim World Relations: The Possibility of the Post-Secular and Interfaith Dialogue”, Doctoral Dissertation, February, http://etheses.bham.ac.uk/1035/1/ezell_10_PhD.pdf)

      Instead of engaging in … enhance relationship building.

      UN routing fails - no coordination, accountability, or info-sharing
      Blanchfield 11 (Luisa, Specialist in International Relations – CRS, “U.N. System Development Assistance: Issues for Congress”, Congressional Research Service Report, 7-28, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41949.pdf)

      Many experts and … effectively as possible. 

      CP links to politics
      Blanchfield 11 (Luisa, Specialist in International Relations – CRS, “U.N. System Development Assistance: Issues for Congress”, Congressional Research Service Report, 7-28, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41949.pdf)

      Criticism and Support
      … foreign assistance dollars.

      UN credibility is shot - U.S. ties make it worse
      Tillawi 11 (Hesham, Host – Current Issues TV Program, “No Credibility Left for UN”, Press TV, 9-22, http://presstv.com/detail/200556.html)

      The United Nations … in the future. 

      UN fails and trades-off with coalitions key to stop conflict
      Perle 3 (Richard, Chair – Defense Policy Board, “Its Over for the UN and Good Riddance”, The Guardian, 3-21, Lexis)

      But is the … of the UN.



10/10/11

  • 2AC EU CP

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:


    • Visible U.S. action is key for engagement
      Ebeld 7
      (Hanaa M., Specialist, development studies; Egypt, “Money Can’t Buy Love: USAID Assistance to Egypt,” Arab Insights 1(2), Fall 2007, http://www.arabinsight.org/aiarticles/176.pdf)

      The recent revisions … the United States.

      U.S. signal’s key
      Russell 11 (Gerard, Research Fellow at the Kennedy School of Government – Harvard University, and Mina Al-Oraibi, Bureau Chief – Asharq Al-Awsat (World’s Largest Pan-Arab Daily Newspaper), “The Trust Deficit: Seven
      Steps Forward for U.S. — Arab Dialogue”, Washington Quarterly, Summer, http://www.twq.com/11summer/docs/ 11summer_Al-Oraibi_Russell.pdf)

      The United States … in that direction.

      Only Obama solves the signal
      Satloff 9-17 (Robert, Executive Director – Washington Institute, “Needed: High-Level U.S. Attention to the Dire Situation in Egypt”, Islam Daily, 2011, http://www.islamdaily.org/en/world-issues/middle-east/10164.article.htm)

      Such an announcement …Barack Obama himself.

      EU can’t solve engagement
      Ridzam 7 (Datuk, EU Ambassador, “EU Can Use Past for Future Benefits”, New Straits Times, 5-6, Lexis)

      While it is … of the world.

      (   ) EU won’t moderate the MB - they’ll just observe
      Hamid 10 (Shadi, Director of Research – Brookings Doha Center and Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, and Amanda Kadlec, Project on Middle East Democracy, “Strategies for Engaging Political Islam”, January, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2010/01_political_islam _hamid/01_political_islam_hamid.pdf)

      The U.S. and … come to power

      *NED Version*

      “Branding” is the ONLY way people know it’s the US

      Lord 9
      (Kristin M., Vice President and Director of Studies at the Center for a New American Security, “FLAG ON THE BAG? BRANDING FOREIGN ASSISTANCE AND THE STRUGGLE AGAINST VIOLENT EXTREMISM,”
      Anti-American attitudes …of that assistance. 

      And U.S. is key to signaling
      Garriga 11 (Ana Carolina, Professor of Political Studies –  Centro de Investigacion y Docencia Economicas (Mexico) and Brian J. Phillips, Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science – University of Pittsburgh, “Foreign Aid and Investment in Post-Conflict Societies”, http://www.cide.edu/publicaciones/status/dts/DTEP%20227.pdf)

      The peculiarity of … regarding investment potential.

      Doesn’t solve MB-

      First Current restrictions prevent U.S. groups from funding the MB- only the plan solves
      Hamid 10 (Shadi, Director of Research – Brookings Doha Center and Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “The Cairo Conundrum”, Democracy Journal, 15, Winter, p. 43-45)

      ANSWERING THE ISLAMIST …was an odd one.

      That links to the Counterplan

      Melia 5
      (Thomas O., research director at the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, “The Democracy Bureaucracy,” September 2005, http://www.princeton.edu/~ppns/papers/democracy_bureaucracy.pdf)
      Created in 1983, … a program be funded. 

      NED doesn’t solve our signal advantages- inconsistent
      Carothers 94 – Senior associate @ Carnegie Endowment and Co-director of its Democracy Project. [Thomas Carothers, “The NED at 10,” Foreign Policy, No. 95 (Summer, 1994), pp. 123-138]

      Nonetheless, inconsistencies … activities are underway

      -Hardly seen
      Carothers 94 – Senior associate @ Carnegie Endowment and Co-director of its Democracy Project. [Thomas Carothers, “The NED at 10,” Foreign Policy, No. 95 (Summer, 1994), pp. 123-138]

      Debate over the … ground of substance. 



11/11/11
0

  • Round Reports

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    •  A

      Aff: MSU BC
      Round #4   Tournament:  Shirley
      vs: Gonzaga KM
      Judge:

       

       

      Plan Text

       

      sAME

       

       

      1ac Advantages

       

      Same

       

      2ac Offense

       

      Econ/Credibility Addon-Aff solves credibility, which is k2 Econ

       

      1ar Strategy

       

      CP won’t solve econ

       

      2ar Strategy
       

      Burma Scenario

       

      Terror Scenario

       

      Indo/Pak Scenario

      Aff: MSU BC

      Round #   2 Tournament:

      vs: Georgetown AM

      Judge: Frappier

       

       

      Plan Text

       

      Plan text: The USFG should provide a substantial increase in political party training for Egypt through joint programming with the Republic of India.

       

       

      1ac Advantages

      Muslim Brotherhood --> Europe social policy

      India strategic partnership

      India energy

       

       

      2ac Offense

       IRF add on

       

      1ar Strategy

      new terror sueq defernse, new SCAF backlash ev, kicked Muslim brotherhood advantage, kicked IRF addon

       

       

      2ar Strategy

      Burma impact/aid now/your link makes no sense

       

       




11/11/11

  • Shirley 1AC - Egypt/India Aff

    • Tournament: Shirley | Round: 2 | Opponent: Gtown AM | Judge: Glen Frappier

    • Adv 1

       

       

      Contention 1 --- Muslim Brotherhood

       

      The MB will win – organization and weakness of liberal parties

      Hamid 11-3-11

      (Shadi, Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center, “How Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood Will Win,” http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/1103_muslim_brotherhood_hamid.aspx)

       

      The performance of the Islamist party Ennahda in

      AND

      , finishing in second and third place respectively.

       

       

      They’re stronger than ever because of U.S. isolation --- “picking winners” creates a perception of hostility that’s the basis of recruiting and radicalism

      Duss 11 (Matthew, Policy Analyst and Director of Middle East Progress – Center for American Progress and MA in Middle East Studies – University of Washington, “Recognizing Reality in the Middle East”, Center for American Progress Report, 7-1, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/07/middle_east_reality.html)

       

      It appears the U.S. government

      AND

      Clinton’s comments were a step in that direction.

       

      U.S. assistance gives secular groups the resources and skills necessary to compete and prevent MB control

      Ali 11 (Ayaan Hirsi, Fellow – American Enterprise Institute and Founder – AHA Foundation, “Get Ready for the Muslim Brotherhood”, New York Times, 2-3, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/04/opinion/04iht-edali04.html?page wanted=all)

       

      Those two experiences gave me some insights that

      AND

      one tyranny aside could easily succumb to another.

       

      Strong demand exists for U.S. technical assistance --- including the MB defuses anti-American resistance

      Slavin 11 (Barbara, Senior Fellow – Atlantic Council, Senior Diplomatic Correspondent – USA Today, and Assistant Managing Editor for World and National Security – Washington Times, “U.S. "Democracy" Advisors Suddenly in Demand”, Inter-Press Service, 4-14, http://ipsnews.net/wap/news.asp?idnews=55266)

       

      For years, U.S. officials

      AND

      parties formed by the Muslim Brothers in Egypt.

       

      Making it openly available without restriction enables an effective democratic transition

      Strasser 11 (Max, Cairo-Based Editor – Foreign Policy Magazine, “Can USAID Be a Force For Good In Egypt?”, The Nation, 7-22, http://www.thenation.com/article/162239/can-usaid-be-force-good-egypt)

       

      In Egypt, as in much of the

      AND

      post-Mubarak, pre-election Egypt.

       

      That moderates the MB --- a consistent mandate’s key

      Hamid 10 (Shadi, Director of Research – Brookings Doha Center and Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “The Islamist Response to Repression: Are Mainstream Islamist Groups Radicalizing?”, Brookings Doha Center Policy Briefing, August, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/ 2010/0809_islamist_groups_hamid/0809_islamist_groups_hamid.pdf)

       

      RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY

      Islamist leaders often speak of an “American

      AND

      -hoc meetings lacking a substantive agenda. 3

       

       

      MB control causes social repression --- collapses the economy and causes refugee flows that destabilize Europe

      Ali 11 (Ayaan Hirsi, Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute, “Will the Muslim Brotherhood Succeed

      Where Osama Failed?”, New Perspectives Quarterly, 28(3), Summer, p. 21-22)

       

      AT   H O M E | In order

      AND

      . But the doctrine of jihad lives on.

       

      Egypt will melt down into state collapse

      Coleman 11 (Isabel, Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy – Council on Foreign Relations, “Egypt’s Economic Woes”, 5-20, http://www.isobelcoleman.com/2011/05/20/egypts-economic-woes/)

       

      Egypt in particular is staggering economically, and

      AND

      a dent in its high level of unemployment.

       

      Escalates to global conflict

      Copley 11 (Gregory O., Editor – Global Information System and Defense & Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy, “Strategic Ramifications of the Egyptian Crisis”, World Tribune, 2-1, http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/ WTARC/2011/me_egypt0088_02_01.asp)

       

      In the Preface to the Defense & Foreign

      AND

      the re-emergence of a charismatic leader.

       

      Mass refugee influxes cause European hyper-nationalism

      Greenblatt 11

      (Alan, NPR, “Arab Refugees Finding Harsh Welcome In Europe,” 3-18-11, http://www.scpr.org/news/2011/03/18/25092/arab-refugees-finding-harsh-welcome-in-europe/)

       

      Thousands are fleeing across the Mediterranean from North

      AND

      could become too many refugees for many people."

       

      They’ll scapegoat refugees – causing geopolitical jockeying that goes nuclear

      Karlin 9

      Anatoly Karlin is a San Francisco based independent writer, political analyst, Editing Professional, and media critic. He is also the author of the blog Sublime Oblivion focusing on the Russia, geopolitics and future global trends. His articles have appeared in The Guardian PSJ and The Discovery Institute's Real Russia Project,  Sublime Strategic Report #10 – October 23, 2009 – available at: http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2009/10/23/ssr10-europe-black-continent/.

       

      However, conservatives who fear the coming of

      AND

      deterrence power of nuclear weapons will fall dramatically.

       

      Extinction

      Elliot 7 (Jeffrey M., North Carolina Central University and Robert Reginald, California State University, San Bernandino, The Arms Control, Disarmament, and Military Security Dictionary, p. 19-20)

       

      Escalation of War (15)

      Increasing, enlarging, or intensifying the nature

      AND

      , 20; TOTAL. WAR. 32.

       

      Even instability causes extinction via warming and global conflicts

      Stokes 10 (Bruce, International Economics Columnist – National Journal, “Greek Tragedy Haunts Global Markets, Policies”, YaleGlobal, 3-17, http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/opinon/2010/03/137_62527.html)

       

      To paraphrase the noted economist Woody Allen,

      AND

      articulate forcefully US interests in their crisis management.

       

      Adv 2

      Contention 2 --- Strategic Partnership

       

      US/Indian relations are unsustainable because they lack ideational foundation --- democracy co-op’s key

      Twining 11 (Daniel, Senior Fellow for Asia – German Marshall Fund of the United States and Richard Fontaine, Senior Fellow – Center for a New American Security, “The Ties that Bind? U.S.—Indian Values-based Cooperation”, Washington Quarterly, Spring, http://www.twq.com/11spring/docs/11spring_Twining_Fontaine.pdf)

       

      Strategically, the key question is whether India

      AND

      India in world affairs is a strategic imperative.

       

      Plan drives US/Indian alignment --- Egypt’s a test case

      Twining 11 (Daniel, Senior Fellow for Asia – German Marshall Fund of the United States and Richard Fontaine, Senior Fellow – Center for a New American Security, “The Ties that Bind? U.S.—Indian Values-based Cooperation”, Washington Quarterly, Spring, http://www.twq.com/11spring/docs/11spring_Twining_Fontaine.pdf)

       

      But unlike areas such as defense, trade, and the sharing of high technology, the values agenda remains nascent at best. While this raises doubts in many minds about the very feasibility of such cooperation, it also suggests a bold new direction for this deepening relationship. Following ratification of the landmark civil nuclear agreement, and at a time when policymakers on both sides are earnestly attempting to identify a new ‘‘big idea’’ that would drive forward the newly established bonds, values-based cooperation could provide the impetus for increasing alignment. An action agenda for Indo—U.S. ideational cooperation could consist of at least six elements:

      Democracy Assistance

      The United States does not ‘‘export’’ democracy

      AND

      in other countries like Afghanistan and Eygpt. 17

       

      Egypt, India, and the MB say “yes”

      TI 11 (Times of India, “Muslim Brotherhood Seeks India Help For Polls In Egypt”, 2-28, http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2011-02-28/india/28641172_1_egypt-elections-post-mubarak-muslim-brotherhood)

       

      The Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's Islamic party,

      AND

      , which were negligible in the Mubarak years.

       

      Deepening relations is key

      Auslin 11 (Michael, Resident Scholar in Asia Studies and Director of Japan Studies – American Enterprise Institute, “U.S.-India: Partnership of the Future”, Wall Street Journal, 6-1, http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2011/06/01/us-india_partnership_of_the_future_99538.html)

       

      Yet my nearly three weeks of discussions with

      AND

      S. aid for development and public health.

       

      Strategic partnership solves the economy, warming, and global nuclear and bio war

      Chandra 11 (Naresh, Chair – India's National Security Advisory Board and Former Indian Ambassador to the United States, et al., “The United States and India: A Shared Strategic Future”, September, p. 3-6)

       

      India is an indispensable partner for the United

      AND

      power that serves Asia so well is preserved.

       

      Warming causes extinction

      Cummins 10 (Ronnie, International Director – Organic Consumers Association and Will Allen, Advisor – Organic Consumers Association, “Climate Catastrophe: Surviving the 21st Century”, 2-14, http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/02/14-6)

       

      The hour is late. Leading climate scientists

      AND

      appear determined to maintain "business as usual."

       

      Burma will prolif absent cooperation

      Chandra 11 (Naresh, Chair – India's National Security Advisory Board and Former Indian Ambassador to the United States, et al., “The United States and India: A Shared Strategic Future”, September, p. 7-8)

       

      China has chosen episodically to ignore global nonproliferation

      AND

      government in Naypyidaw are presently murky at best.

       

      Nuclear great power conflict

      Kurlantzick 11 (Joshua, Fellow for Southeast Asia – Council on Foreign Relations, “Myanmar: Sources of Instability and Potential for U.S.-China Cooperation”, 9-23, http://www.cfr.org/china/managing-instability-chinas-periphery/p25838)

       

      The Challenges from Myanmar

      Although the dangers to regional and international stability

      AND

      of a regime-controlled border guard force.

       

      Burma instability collapses ASEAN

      Green 7 (Michael, Professor of International Relations –Georgetown University and Senior Adviser and Japan Chair – Center for Strategic and International Studies, and Derek Mitchell, Senior Fellow and Director for Asia Strategy – CSIS, “Asia's Forgotten Crisis Subtitle: A New Approach to Burma”, Foreign Affairs, November / December, Lexis)

       

      The international community needs to act now to

      AND

      rest of the world concentrates its energies elsewhere.

       

      Extinction

      Rajaratnam 92 (S., Former Deputy Prime Minister – Singapore, “ASEAN: The Way Ahead” , 9-1, http://www.aseansec.org/13991.htm)

       

      Should regionalism collapse, then ASEAN too will

      AND

      devastating than those exploded in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

      Adv 3

      Contention 3 --- Indian Energy

       

      Party training’s key to Indian access to Egyptian energy

      Twining 11 (Daniel, Senior Fellow for Asia – German Marshall Fund of the United States and Richard Fontaine, Senior Fellow – Center for a New American Security, “The Ties that Bind? U.S.—Indian Values-based Cooperation”, Washington Quarterly, Spring, http://www.twq.com/11spring/docs/11spring_Twining_Fontaine.pdf)

       

      Institution-Building in the Middle East

      The changes roiling the Middle East present a

      AND

      , and more prosperous trade and investment partners.

       

      U.S. coordination’s crucial --- avoids duplication

      Latif 11 (S. Amer, Visiting Fellow and Wadhwani Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies – Center for Strategic and International Studies, “Talking Over the Arab Spring”, CSIS Blog, 7-12, http://csis.org/publication/talking-over-arab-spring)

       

      As Washington has struggled to deal with the

      AND

      planned efforts to promote coordination and avoid duplication.

       

      Plan expands Indian diplomacy --- ensures Gulf oil flows

      Chandra 11 (Naresh, Chair – India's National Security Advisory Board and Former Indian Ambassador to the United States, et al., “The United States and India: A Shared Strategic Future”, September, p. 26-27)

       

      West Asia, as Indians call it,

      AND

      meetings of relevant senior officials from both governments.

                                            

      Gulf’s key --- energy shortages are likely --- causes great power conflict and disrupts Indian littoral waters

      Phillips 11 (Andrew, Ph.D. and Research Fellow in International Relations – Australian National University, “India-China Energy Race Could Stoke Conflict, But It Needn’t”, First Post, 5-16, http://www.firstpost.com/world/chindia-energy-race-10157.html)

       

      A revolution in energy consumption is sweeping Asia

      AND

      systemic threat to Asia’s continuing peace and prosperity.

       

      That collapses global trade

      Erickson 10 (Andrew S., China Maritime Studies Institute – U.S. Naval War College, and Walter C. Ladwig III, Ph.D. in International Relations – University of Oxford, “Diego Garcia and the United States’ Emerging Indian Ocean Strategy”, Asian Security, 6(3), p. 216-217)

       

      In terms of global trade, the Indian

      AND

      the countries of the immediate littoral and beyond.

       

      Extinction

      Pazner 8 (Michael J., Faculty – New York Institute of Finance, Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse, p. 137-138)

       

      The rise in isolationism and protectionism will bring

      AND

      as the beginnings of a new world war.

       

      Independently --- Asian great power conflict causes extinction

      Caldicott 2 (Helen, Founder – Physicians for Social Responsibility, The New Nuclear Danger: George W. Bush’s Military-Industrial Complex, p. x)

       

      The use of Pakistani nuclear weapons could trigger

      AND

      meaning the end of most life on earth.

       

      Shortages tanks the Indian economy

      Kanuk 7 (Alan R., Vice President of Special Operations – BTI Technology, Capital Markets of India: An Investor's Guide, p. 15)

       

      Energy Requirements The fast-growing economy is

      AND

      to continue to grow at its current pace.

       

      Causes Indo/Pak nuclear war --- goes global

      Bouton 10 (Marshall M., President – Chicago Council on Global Affairs, “America’s Interests in India”, CNAS Working Paper, October, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_USInterestsinIndia_ Bouton.pdf)

       

      In South Asia, the most immediately compelling

      AND

      greater potential for unchecked interstate and civil conflict.

       

      Extinction

      Robock 10 – Alan, Professor of Climatology at Rutgers University and Associate Director of the Center for Environmental Prediction and Owen Brian Toon, chair of the department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at the University of Colorado at Boulder and a fellow of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, fellow of the American Meteorological Society and the American Geophysical Union, “Local War, Global Suffering,” Scientific American, January, http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockToonSciAmJan2010.pdf

       

      Abolition: The Only Policy People have several

      AND

      of conflict have the potential to erupt suddenly.

       

       

      No defense—impact happens in less than 5 minutes and deterrence theory is outdated and wrong in this context

      Hussain 4 – Savail Hussain, economist, about to begin graduate work at University College London, 8-8-2004 http://www.chowk.com/articles/7840

       

       

      In the case of India and Pakistan the

      AND

      on our laurels of creating a nuclear bomb.

       

      Coupling engagement with democracy BOOSTS credibility

      Satloff 11 (Dr. Robert, Executive Director and Howard P. Berkowitz Chair in U.S. Middle East Policy – Washington Institute for Near East Policy, “Egypt, U.S. Strategy, and Engaging the Muslim Brotherhood”, Washington Institute Policy Alert, 6-30, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1662)

       

      Secretary of State Clinton confirmed today that the

      AND

      to the MB as fumbling in the dark.

      SCAF crackdown and instability inevitable --- only electoral pluralism solves

      Trager 11-8 (Eric, Weiner Fellow – Washington Institute and Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science – University of Pennsylvania, “Tensions Grow between Egypt's Military Leaders and the Muslim Brotherhood”, Washington Institute PolicyWatch #1868, 2011, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3419)

       

      Although Washington has no interest in an Islamist

      AND

      confrontations that could drive Egypt toward further chaos.

       

       

       

      Plan

      The United States Federal Government should provide a substantial increase in political party training for Egypt through joint programming with the Republic of India.

       




11/12/11

  • Shirley Rd 2 2AC/1AR vs. Gtown AM

    • Tournament: Shirley | Round: 2 | Opponent: Gtown Am | Judge: Glen Frappier

    • SCAF DA

       

      They’re furious

      Dreazen 9-7 (Yochi J., Frequent Contributor – Global Research, “State Department Will Name Taylor to Lead Aid Efforts in Libya and Egypt”, National Journal, 2011, http://www.nationaljournal.com/state-department-will-name-taylor-to-lead-aid-efforts-in-libya-and-egypt-20110907)

       

      In the aftermath … aid has been spent.

       

      Plan solves anti-Americanism by making aid openly available --- that’s Slavin. Turns the DA.

      Schenker 9-15 David Schenker, Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, The Weekly Standard, “Washington's Limited Influence in Egypt” http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1715

       

      While Egyptian officers … be in jeopardy.

       

       

      NO BACKLASH --- their evidence concludes Aff --- aid won’t break resiliency

      Martini 11 (Jeff, Project Associate – RAND Corporation, “Commanding Democracy in Egypt”, Foreign Affairs, 90(5), September / October, Ebsco)

       

      But when … future for Egypt.

       

      [NOTE --- ARTICLE CONCLUDES HERE]

       

      For – Only Governments – 2AC

       

      Egypt’s the country, not the government

      AHD 9 (American Heritage Dictionary, “Egypt”, http://education.yahoo.com/reference/dictionary/entry/Egypt)

       

      Egypt    (jpt) KEY  Formerly (1958-1961) United Arab Republic

      ….. the largest city. Population: 74,700,000.

       

      “For” isn’t restrictive

      Words and Phrases 1904 (Volume 3, “Depositor – Freeman”, p. 2861)

       

      The words “for ….. purposes. Chautauqua Assembly v. Alling (N.Y.) 46 Hun, 582, 586.

       

       

       

      TAX CREDITS CP 2AC

       

       

       

      (   ) Privatization doesn’t solve engagment or implementation- too chaotic and unmanageable for recipient countries- also links to politics because Congress can’t see where their money is going

      Laurie Garrett Senior Fellow for Global Health CFR January 2009, “The Future of Foreign Assistance Amid Global Economic and Financial Crisis”

       

      Beyond the question of …. lacking in sustainability.

       

       

      (   ) Private assistance shatters U.S. credibility, dooms engagement

      Dobransky 11 (Steve, Adjunct Professor of Political Science – Cleveland State University, and MA – Ohio University, “The Coming Crisis in U.S. Foreign Aid: Policy Options for the 21st Century”, American Diplomacy, 3-7, http://www.unc.edu/depts/diplomat/item/2011/0104/comm/dobransky_coming.html)

       

      Policy Option #6: Promote Private …..with the contractor Blackwater (now, Xe).

       

       

      (   ) CP won’t be perceived as strong federal action

      Rigby 9 (Elizabeth, Professor of Political Science – University of Houston, “Tax Credits vs. Spending: Why Progressives Should Care How the Stimulus is Delivered”, Huffington Post, 1-5, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/elizabeth-rigby/tax-credits-vs-spending-w_b_155389.html)

       

      Similarly, since ….. the initial investment.

       

       

      (   ) Visible USAID funds are key to credibility in Egypt

      Ebeld 7

      (Hanaa M., Specialist, development studies; Egypt, “Money Can’t Buy Love: USAID Assistance to Egypt,” Arab Insights 1(2), Fall 2007, http://www.arabinsight.org/aiarticles/176.pdf)

       

      The recent revisions …. of the United States.

       

       

       

      (   ) CP links to politics --- the GOP will blast it

      Mankiw 7 (Greg, Professor of Economics – Harvard University, “An Alternative to Foreign Aid”, Greg Mankiw’s Blog, 10-20, http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2007/10/alternative-to-foreign-aid.html)

       

      Justin Muzinich and …. sweatshops tax credit."

      Relations Advantage CP (General) – 2AC

       

       

      Doesn’t solve relations --- democracy co-op’s key to ideational values-based alignment --- only this can provide a sustainable basis for partnership --- that’s Twining --- more evidence

      Twining 11 (Daniel, Senior Fellow for Asia – German Marshall Fund of the United States and Richard Fontaine, Senior Fellow – Center for a New American Security, “The Ties that Bind? U.S.—Indian Values-based Cooperation”, Washington Quarterly, Spring, http://www.twq.com/11spring/docs/11spring_Twining_Fontaine.pdf)

       

      These and other ….. government, and democratic values.’’ 11

       

       

      India alone doesn’t solve

      Russell 11 (Gerard, Research Fellow at the Kennedy School of Government – Harvard University, and Mina Al-Oraibi, Bureau Chief – Asharq Al-Awsat (World’s Largest Pan-Arab Daily Newspaper), “The Trust Deficit: Seven

      Steps Forward for U.S. — Arab Dialogue”, Washington Quarterly, Summer, http://www.twq.com/11summer/docs/ 11summer_Al-Oraibi_Russell.pdf)

       

      The United States …. move in that direction.

       

      Funding the MB’s key to U.S. credibility on religious freedom --- solves global nuclear conflicts

      Farr 8 (Thomas F., Professor of Religion and International Affairs – Georgetown's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and Director – Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs, “Diplomacy in an Age of Faith Subtitle: Religious Freedom and National Security”, Foreign Affairs, March / April, Lexis)

       

      DESECULARIZATION AND ITS DISCONTENTS

      …… contribute to U.S. national security.

       

       

      Politics

       

      Unemployment benefits won’t pass – GOP opposition.

      Howard News Service 11/10/11 (Our Opinion: Cut jobless benefits but raise farm subsidies?, http://www.timesrecordnews.com/news/2011/nov/10/cut-jobless-benefits-but-raise-farm-subsidies/)

      A group of ….. plant than a person.

       

      Rubin 11 (Barry, Director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and Editor – Middle East Review, “A Major U.S. Policy Shift Toward the Muslim Brotherhood Disguised”, Rubin Reports, 6-30, http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/06/30/us-policy-shift-toward-the-muslim-brotherhood/)

       

      Here’s the headline: “U.S. ….Brotherhood, even tentatively.

       

      Supercommittee screwed Obama- lose-lose situation

      WP, 11-9-2011 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/2chambers/post/gop-supercommittee-offer-a-breakthrough-durbin-says/2011/11/09/gIQARwab5M_blog.html

       

      Asked whether Obama …..strike the right balance.”

       

      Ongoing appropriations discussions now

      The Hill 10-14-11.

      The Senate will attempt …. to the legislation.

       

      Action on Egypt is bipart

      Negrin 11

      (Matt, staff writer for Politico, “Biden: 'Pivotal moment' in Egypt”, 2-11-11, http://www.politico.com/politico44/perm/0211/vp_speaks_first_73cc39c5-5ffb-4c3a-88a0-e458fcf3bf1a.html)

       

      Egyptian President Hosni …. and fateful days ahead."

       

       

       

       

      Aid to Egypt avoids spending debates

      ABC News 11

      (“US to carve $61 billion off budget,” 2-20-11, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-02-20/us-to-carve-61-billion-off-budget/1949516)

       

      "When we say …. Iraq and Afghanistan.

       

       

       

      Winners win

      Halloran 10 (Liz, Reporter – NPR, “For Obama, What A Difference A Week Made”, National Public Radio, 4-6, http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=125594396)

       

      Amazing what a ….issue for them.

       

       

       

      Saudi

       

      No Saudi prolif --- decades away from even having the capacity

      Hoodbhoy 11 – Hoodbhoy, professor of physics at Quaid-i-Azaam University in Islamabad, interviewed by Jess Hill, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, 7/1/2011 [lexis]

       

      Pervez Hoodbhoyis a professor ….. to make the bomb.

       

      No link and relations resilient

      POMED 9/15, POMED Notes: “Ten Years after 9/11: Managing U.S.-Saudi Relations”, http://pomed.org/blog/2011/09/pomed-notes-ten-years-after-911-managing-u-s-saudi-relations.html/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+POMED_blog+%28Project+on+Middle+East+Democracy+Blog%29

       

      Mustafa Alani began by ….. their differing world views.

      Realtions have already collapsed

      James M. Dorsey is a senior researcher at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute and the author of the blog, The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer., 5/18 2011, “Obama effort to recalibrate Mideast policy likely to frustrate reformers and conservatives alike,” http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/05/18/149581.html

      Mr. Obama’s toughest …. an Iranian puppet.

       

       

       

      Coercion DA

       

       

      Evaluate consequences

      Isaac 2 (Jeffrey C., Professor of Political Science – Indiana-Bloomington, Director – Center for the Study of Democracy and Public Life, Ph.D. – Yale, Dissent Magazine, 49(2), “Ends, Means, and Politics”, Spring, Proquest)

       

      As writers such as …..undermines political effectiveness.

       

      Case outweighs – nuclear war is coercive and causes extinction. Their authors concede

      Rothbard 73 (Murray, Dean of Austrian School, Head of Mises Institute, For A New Liberty: The Libertarian Manifesto, http://www.mises.org/rothbard/newlibertywhole.asp#p263)

       

      Many libertarians are ….. of no importance whatsoever.

       

      Property rights aren’t absolute

      Paul 81 (Jeffrey, Professor of Philosophy, Bowling Green State University, Reading Nozick, p. 9-10)

       

      Like Scanlon, Judith Jarvis T'homson is ….. leads him to believe.

       

       

      1AR: Scaf

      And the brotherhood outweighs

       

      Trager, 2k11

      (September/October http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1704)

      The rise of the Muslim Brotherhood will also

      AND

      a likely uptick in Israeli-Palestinian hostilities.

       

       

      No chance that they’ll close the Suez

      Bouasria, 11 (Prof-Arab Studies-Intl Center for Language Studies, 4/21, https://store.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=13047)

       

      In addition, ending U.S.

      AND

      response would be inevitable, swift and devastating.

      No impact to crackdowns

      Maaty 11 – Amira Maaty 11, program officer on the MENA team of the NED, “Civil society a force in Egypt’s democratization”, April 29, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/04/civil-society-a-force-in-egypts-democratization/

       

      In the run- up to Egypt’s January

      AND

      as well as groups based outside the capital.

      Their card concludes SCAF backlash is non-unique

       

      Fadel 11

      (Leila, Cairo bureau chief for the Washington Post, “Military stokes xenophobia in Egypt,” 7-30-11, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/military-stokes-xenophobia-in-egypt/2011/07/28/gIQAFnGjjI_story.html)

      Western diplomats said they are alarmed by the

      AND

      much easier to have someone else to blame.”

       

       

       

      Counterplan

      Egypt key—that’s twinning more ev

      Twining 11 (Daniel, Senior Fellow for Asia – German Marshall Fund of the United States and Richard Fontaine, Senior Fellow – Center for a New American Security, “India’s Arab Spring Opportunity”, The Diplomat, 8-24, http://the-diplomat.com/2011/08/24/india%E2%80%99s-arab-spring-opportunity/)

       

      These developments position New Delhi to help shape

      AND

      unique strategic advantage that New Delhi should seize.

       

      Iran

      Dramatic destruction is viewed as counterproductive and reckless – terrorists would never do it again

      Mueller 6 (John Mueller, Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University, September/October 2006, “Is there still a terrorist threat?: The myth of the omnipresent enemy”, http://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/fr/IMG/pdf/menaceterroriste_exageration.pdf)

       

      One reason al Qaeda and "al Qaeda

      AND

      to less than one percent after the attack.

       

       

       

       




11/12/11

  • Texas 1AC Round 2

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Plan

      The President of the United States should issue a directive requiring a substantial expansion of political party training in Egypt.

       

      MB

       

      Contention 1 --- Muslim Brotherhood

       

      They won and we reached out – but Obama needs to intensify engagement

      Riedel 2-7-12

      (Bruce, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy

      AND

      /0207_egypt_riedel.aspx)

       

      If the Brotherhood has proven to be more

      AND

      and Arabia. Patience and engagement is critical.

       

      Current engagement lacks material assistance – sends mixed signals

      Indyk 1-23-12

      (Martin S., Vice President and Director

      AND

      /0123_egypt_indyk.aspx)

       

      What was perhaps most striking to me,

      AND

      geostrategically most important country in the Arab world.

       

      This means zero DA uniqueness --- outreach is public and causing backlash

      Karon 1-5-12

      (Tony, senior editor at TIME.

      AND

      )

       

      So the meeting of U.S.

      AND

      of bipartisan consensus Obama can only dream of.

       

      But, it doesn’t solve --- lack of technical support ensures escalating anti-Americanism

      Weiss 1-31-12

      (Margaret, research associate at The Washington

      AND

      )

       

      It follows that the Obama administration's response to

      AND

      when they believe this support is not materializing.

       

      This shatters diplomacy --- even allies misperceive U.S. policy --- coupling engagement with democratic investment is key to clarity

      Satloff 11 (Dr. Robert, Executive Director and Howard P. Berkowitz Chair in U.S. Middle East Policy – Washington Institute for Near East Policy, “Egypt, U.S. Strategy, and Engaging the Muslim Brotherhood”, Washington Institute Policy Alert, 6-30, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1662)

       

      Secretary of State Clinton confirmed today that the

      AND

      to the MB as fumbling in the dark.

       

      Strong demand for U.S. technical assistance --- opens up lines of communication

      Slavin 11 (Barbara, Senior Fellow – Atlantic Council, Senior Diplomatic Correspondent – USA Today, and Assistant Managing Editor for World and National Security – Washington Times, “U.S. "Democracy" Advisors Suddenly in Demand”, Inter-Press Service, 4-14, http://ipsnews.net/wap/news.asp?idnews=55266)

       

      For years, U.S. officials

      AND

      parties formed by the Muslim Brothers in Egypt.

       

      That moderates the MB

      Duss 11 (Matthew, Policy Analyst and Director of Middle East Progress – Center for American Progress and MA in Middle East Studies – University of Washington, “Are We Serious About A Democratic Egypt?”, ThinkProgress Security, 2-4, http://thinkprogress.org/security/2011/02/04/176481/are-we-serious-about-a-democratic-egypt/)

       

      I agree that U.S. has

      AND

      We should start getting used to that idea.

       

      No moderation now – the plan’s key

      Satloff and Trager 1-23-12

      (Robert, executive director of The Washington

      AND

      /templateC06.php?CID=1798)

       

      Some have sugar-coated the Islamists' ascendance

      AND

      use both these tools to advance its interests.

       

      MB control spreads to Jordan

      Bronner 11 (Ethan, Reporter – New York Times, “Israelis Wary of Uprising’s Aftermath”, Boston Globe, 1-31, http://articles.boston.com/2011-01-31/news/29336415_1_muslim-brotherhood-president-hosni-mubarak-peace-treaty)

       

      But others noted that the best organized political

      AND

      with the Palestinians, officials and analysts said.

       

      That forces Israel to annex the West Bank

      Vincent 11 (Rob, Contributing Editor – Truth Provider, U.S. Army Veteran, MA in International Relations – University of Chicago, MBA – University of Findlay, BA in Russian and Eastern European Studies – University of Michigan, “Long Live the King”, Truth Provider, 8-1, http://www.truthprovider.com/page.php?pageID=157)

      *Note – “J&S”

      AND

      Samaria District”, Israeli name for the West Bank

       

      These unfolding events mean that Jordan is being

      AND

      ” in light of such developments going forward?

      This writer sees two potential scenarios.

      The pessimistic scenario:

      What we'll see in Jordan will be similar

      AND

      much more credibility, even harder to refute.

      If Israel is faced with a hostile Islamist

      AND

      That becomes the "least bad" option.

       

      Extinction

      Dale 11 (Colin, Political Commentator on Israeli Relations, 9-21, http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2011/Sep-21/149320-french-want-palestinians-to-drop-un-membership-bid.ashx#axzz1Z1W8B9cS)

       

      Now the Israeli government is threatening to annex

      AND

      Council ignores this appalling reality at its peril.

       

      MB tanks US/Jordan relations

      Tasopoulos 8 (Ilias, Centre for Mediterranean, Middle East and Islamic Studies and PhD. Candidate – University of Peloponnese, et al., “What If The Muslim Brotherhood Rose to Power?”, Middle East Bulletin, January, Issue 9, http://www.idis.gr/GR/Ekdoseis/newsletters/MiddleEastBulletin09.pdf)

       

      Coming to power the Brotherhood will have to

      AND

      again turn to the Gulf for financial support.

       

      That undermines Iraqi stability

      Terrill 8 (W. Andrew, Professor of National Security Affairs – Strategic Studies Institute and Former Middle East Analyst – Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, “Jordanian National Security and the Future of Middle East Stability”, January, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub838.pdf)

       

      1. When the United States withdraws from

      AND

      in most cases, be a serious mistake.

       

      Extinction

      Gardner 7 (Hall, Professor and Chair of the International Affairs Department – American University of Paris, Averting Global War, p. 210-217)

       

      Or, by contrast, should the United

      AND

      and antistate actors to attack large naval vessels.

       

      They’ll collapse Jordan --- spills over to Saudi Arabia

      Morris 5 (Mary E., Analyst and Middle East Specialist – RAND Corporation, New Political Realities and the Gulf: Egypt, Syria, and Jordan, p. 35-37)

       

      However, the potential exists for a violent

      AND

      they have made toward participatory government since 1989.

      It is, of course, possible that

      AND

      , if not its current form of government.

      Most Jordanians appear eager for a settlement with

      AND

      , thus improving the overall gloomy economic picture.

      The failure to achieve significant progress in peace

      AND

      which is still alive and well in Damascus.

      Also possible is an alliance between the fundamentalists

      AND

      into a far more radical and destabilizing position.

      In the short term, the king should

      AND

      a number of reasons, including the following:

      • Increasing economic dysfunction and the possibility of breakdown

      • Growth in fundamentalism, with the possibility of radicalizing the government

      • Growth in both the number of Palestinians

      AND

      Palestinian dispute to the exclusion of national Jordanian problems

      • Increasing radicalization of the government, if political and economic isolation continues.

      Jordan and the Gulf States

      A Jordan under extremist rule, whether by

      AND

      of extra-regional force in the Gulf.

      The Saudi reaction to Jordan's political stance during

      AND

      of Saudi Arabia and father of King Fahd.

      The most recent eruption of animosity between the

      AND

      , with increasingly nasty attacks on each side.

      Nonetheless, the ties between Jordan and the

      AND

      result of economic breakdown and potential political realignment.

      It is ironic that a stable and secure

      AND

      multiply the current problems of the Middle East.

       

      Causes mega-oil shocks

      Luft 11 (Gal, Executive Director –

      AND

      /stories/0211/48698.html)

       

      Egypt is relevant to the oil market because

      AND

      .S. economy from high oil prices.

       

      Extinction

      Riddoch 4 (Dr. Malcolm, Faculty of Communications and Creative Industries – Edith Cowan University, Energy  Bulletin, 6-18, http://www.energybulletin.net/node/729)

       

      There are lots of recent 2004 reports speculating

      AND

      nuclear war and its companions famine and pestilence. 

       

      IRF

      Contention 2 is International Religious Freedom

       

      Obama’s silence on Islamic participation is crippling International Religious Freedom, or IRF

      Inboden 1-23-12

      (William, Assistant Professor at the LBJ

      AND

      _turn_america_into_france)

       

      Why does this matter for foreign policy?

      AND

      administration's recent policies will only reinforce this perception.

       

      Presidential leadership’s key

      Grieboski 11 (Joseph K., Founder and Chair – The Institute on Religion and Public Policy, “U.S. Foreign Policy and International Religious Expression”, CQ Congressional Testimony, 6-3, Lexis)

       

      IRFA was passed in 1998 because of a

      AND

      and impactful an issue to be handled halfheartedly.

       

      Obama’s mandate ends exclusion of the Islamic MB and empowers embassies to engage religious groups

      Hamid 10 (Shadi, Director of Research – Brookings Doha Center and Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “The Islamist Response to Repression: Are Mainstream Islamist Groups Radicalizing?”, Brookings Doha Center Policy Briefing, August, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/ 2010/0809_islamist_groups_hamid/0809_islamist_groups_hamid.pdf)

       

      RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY

      Islamist leaders often speak of an “American

      AND

      -hoc meetings lacking a substantive agenda. 3

       

      A firm Presidential mandate to engage the MB broadens diplomatic authority to implement IRF

      Farr 6 (Thomas, Former Director –

      AND

      -of-religious-freedom--35)

       

      Without more attention to such issues, Iraq

      AND

      embrace a new religious realism in foreign affairs.

       

      Process matters --- the State Department must be overridden to end low-level reticence and boost overall leadership on IRF

      Farr 11 (Thomas F., Director – Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs, “U.S. Foreign Policy and International Religious Expression”, CQ Congressional Testimony, 6-3, Lexis)

       

      Fortunately the amendments in HR 1856 address these

      AND

      chiefs of mission before they assume their duties.

       

      US IRF cred solves multiple global conflicts

      Thames 1-5-12

      (Knox, Director of Policy and Research

      AND

      -space-for-religious-actors)

       

      Why Limitations on Religious Practice Matter Religion plays

      AND

      it as a way to avoid future conflict.

       

      Religious tensions magnify their DA impacts

      Thames 1-5-12

      (Knox, Director of Policy and Research

      AND

      -space-for-religious-actors)

       

      Religion is the ideology that governments pander to

      AND

      answer to religious-based violence and conflict.

       

      Scenario one is Sri Lanka

       

      U.S. IRF leadership’s key to stability in Sri Lanka

      Philpott 11 (Daniel, Professor of Political Science – University of Notre Dame, “Afghanistan: International Religious Freedom and U.S. Foreign Policy”, Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs – Case Study Series, May, http://repository.berkleycenter.georgetown.edu/110811Afghanistan[FINAL].pdf)

       

      Debating the Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy

      A major goal of U.S.

      AND

      may be a matter of life or death.

       

      It’s escalating

      EF 11 (Evangelical Fellowship of Canada, “Religious Freedom Internationally – Sri Lanka”, http://www.evangelicalfellowship.ca/page.aspx?pid=690)

       

      Sri Lanka

      Sri Lanka is a tropical island in the

      AND

      population are Tamil, who are mainly Hindus.

      In 1983 a civil war broke out between

      AND

      Sri Lanka is violent and democracy is wavering.

      Religious Freedom

      Buddhism has the 'foremost position' in Sri Lanka

      AND

      all Christian activities in the country be eliminated.

      Violence against religious minorities and their places of

      AND

      who threat and act violently against religious minorities.

       

      Causes civil war

      Hogg 11 (Charu Lata, Associate Fellow – Asia Programme at Chatham House and Asia Manager – Child Soldiers International, Graduate – London School of Economics, and International Journalist, “Sri Lanka: Prospects for

      Reform and Reconciliation”, Chatam House Report,

      AND

      Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, Sri Lankan Terrorists

       

      The United States, the EU and Japan

      AND

      east could trigger yet another cycle of conflict. 

      CENTRALIZATION, MILITARIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT Since the defeat

      AND

      private messages are understood to have become terser.

      CONCLUSION

      There are few signs to indicate that the

      AND

      power to minorities is real, and meaningful. 

       

      That kills billions, causes great power nuclear war, and collapses trade

      Anderson 11 (Dr. David A., Professor of Strategic Studies and Chair of Joint, Interagency, and Multinational Operations – U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, and Anton Wijeyesekera, Major and Armor Officer – Sri Lanka Army and Senior Instructor – Sri Lanka Military Academy, “U.S. Naval Basing in Sri Lanka?”, Small Wars Journal, 10-15, http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/us-naval-basing-in-sri-lanka)

       

      As a prominent place for naval harboring and

      AND

      in Sri Lanka posed by its geographic advantage?

       

      Trade solves extinction

      Pazner 8 (Michael J., Faculty – New York Institute of Finance, Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse, p. 137-138)

       

      The rise in isolationism and protectionism will bring

      AND

      as the beginnings of a new world war.

       

      Collapses the Indian economy

      Orland 8 (Brian, Research Intern – Strategic Foresight Group (Mumbai), “India’s Sri Lanka Policy: Towards Economic Engagement”, IPCS Research Papers, April, http://www.ipcs.org/pdf_file/issue/1445888596RP16-Brian-SriLanka.pdf)

       

      India’s Strategic Interests in Sri Lanka

      After the Cold War, India’s interests in

      AND

      , and two-thirds of its oil.

      Sri Lanka’s decline of strategic importance to India

      AND

      as strategically important in the regional environment. 9

       

      Causes Indo/Pak nuclear war --- goes global

      Bouton 10 (Marshall M., President – Chicago Council on Global Affairs, “America’s Interests in India”, CNAS Working Paper, October, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_USInterestsinIndia_ Bouton.pdf)

       

      In South Asia, the most immediately compelling

      AND

      greater potential for unchecked interstate and civil conflict.

       

      No defense assumes this scenario

      Harrison 93 (Selig, Senior Scholar – Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and Director of the Asia Program – Center for International Policy and Geoffrey Kemp, Director – Carnegie Endowment Study Group on US-India Relations, India & America After the Cold War, p. 29)

       

      The United States provided substantial economic aid to

      AND

      war that could escalate to the nuclear level.

       

      Scenario two is Belarus

       

      U.S. IRF cred’s key to stability in Belarus

      Grieboski 11 (Joseph K., Founder and Chair – The Institute on Religion and Public Policy, “U.S. Foreign Policy and International Religious Expression”, CQ Congressional Testimony, 6-3, Lexis)

       

      Rejection of religious freedom also places a prodigious

      AND

      an Act and religious liberty as an issue.

       

      It’s on the brink --- U.S.’s key

      IRPP 11 (Institute on Religion & Public Policy, “Belarus: 2011 The Institute Country Conditions Report”, 7-27, http://religionandpolicy.org/cms/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=7013&Itemid=265)

       

      (1) The state of religious freedom

      AND

      involvement creates a dire situation for religious minorities.

       

      Belarussian instability escalates --- spills over to Poland --- draws in the U.S., Russia, and goes nuclear --- and if it doesn’t, shatters NATO guarantees

      Carpenter 97 (Ted Galen, Vice President for Defense Policy – Cato Institute and Andrew Stone, “NATO Expansion Flashpoint No. 1: The Border between Poland and Belarus”, Cato Institute Foreign Policy Briefing No. 44, 9-16, http://www.cato.org/pubs/fpbriefs/fpb044.pdf)

       

      The Powder Keg on the Polish-Belarusian Border

      Admitting Poland to NATO involves two related dangers

      AND

      to the security interests of the American people.

       

      Global nuclear war

      Snegirev 99 (Vladimir, Editor – Metro, What The Papers Say, 6-25, Lexis)

       

      But how can we respond? Our defense

      AND

      promoted by the internal situation in our country.

       

      NATO commitments to Poland solve global conflict --- especially in Taiwan

      Mitchell 10 (A. Wess, President – Center for European Policy Analysis, and Robert Kron, Research Associate – CEPA, “NATO Must Reassure Nervous Allies”, RealClearWorld, 3-1, http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/ 2010/03/01/nato_must_reassure_nervous_allies_98828.html?utm_source=emailalerts&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Russia)

       

      Second, insecure allies are less likely to

      AND

      will alleviate concerns of a rising Russian threat.

       

      Global nuclear war

      Hunkovic 9 (Lee J, American Military

      AND

      )

       

      A war between China, Taiwan and the

      AND

      countries will not be considered in this study.

       

      U.S. draw-in collapses readiness and invites global aggression

      Spencer 00 (Jack, Policy Analyst – Heritage Foundation, “The Facts About Military Readiness”, 9-15, http://www.heritage.org/Research/MissileDefense/BG1394.cfm)

       

      Military readiness is vital because declines in America's

      AND

      of vital national interest, thereby preserving peace.

      Readiness Defined. Readiness measures the ability of

      AND

      and/or logistics to accomplish its mission.

      There is evidence of a widespread lack of

      AND

      In other words, they are not ready.

       

      Extinction

      Barnett 11 (Thomas P.M., Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in Warfare Analysis – U.S. Naval War College, Former Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation – Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads”, World Politics Review, 3-7, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads)

       

      It is worth first examining the larger picture

      AND

      the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.

       




02/11/12

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02/11/12

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