Plan – The United States Federal Government should substantially increase its technical assistance aimed at capacity building for government institutions in Yemen.
Contention 1 – Al-Qaeda
.
Saleh has agreed to transfer power, but government corruption continues – it has given al-Qaeda a safe haven
Al-Haj 12/28 – Associated Press (Ahmed, “Yemen government workers rally against corruption,” http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2011/12/28/2881419/yemen-government-workers-rally.html)
SANAA, Yemen ……in line with military regulations.
Al-Qaeda is Yemen is strengthening – threatens Aden
Gordon 1/12 – American Enterprise Institute (Sasha, “Taiz: The Heart of Yemen's Revolution,” http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/gordon-taiz-heart-yemen-revolution-january-12-2012)
America’s primary ….the key port city of Aden.
They’ll gain control of the Gulf of Aden – collapses global trade
Yuriditsky 11 – Associate of the Institute for Gulf Affairs (Lev, 09/28, “Yemen's Chaos - August 2011,” http://yuriditsky.blogspot.com/2011/09/yemens-chaos-august-2011.html)
Towards the end of July,
, such as arms and training (Yemen is the most heavily armed country in the world) with Al Shabaab’s reach can make for a particularly challenging situation.
Multiple nuclear wars
Panzner 8 – faculty at the New York Institute of Finance, 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets who has worked in New York and London for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and JPMorgan Chase (Michael, “Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse,” p. 136-138)
Continuing calls for onventional forces using jets, cruise missiles, and bunker-busting bombs to cause widespread destruction. Many will interpret stepped-up conflicts between Muslims and Western societies as the beginnings of a new world war.
Our approach in Yemen is the litmus-test of future counter-terrorism strategy – the time is right for a strategy shift
Cilluffo ’11 (Frank J. Cilluffo is the director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at The George Washington University and Clinton Watts is a principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute. He is a former U.S. Army Officer and former Special Agent with the FBI., Homeland Security Policy Institute, “Yemen & Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting a Window of Counterterrorism Opportunity”, June 24, 2011, http://www.gwumc.edu/hspi/policy/issuebrief203_yemenAQAP.cfm)
Debates over counterterrorism strategy in a post-bin Laden world. However, the present window of opportunity will close quickly – the U.S. must act now to prevent an inevitable attack from AQAP.
The plan would be a shift to a more comprehensive approach – that’s critical to successful international cooperation
Boyle and Scmid ‘9 (A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime Dr. Michael J. Boyle and Professor Alex P. Schmid Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the The New Ideas Fund, 2009
One of the greatest insights regime theory might have for creating and sustaining counter-terrorism cooperation at the regional and global level. Its argument is that paying due attention to the insights of regime theory may allow the U.S. to achieve the benefits of global and regional counter-terrorism cooperation, whilst escaping the costs and complications that have bedevilled counter-terrorism cooperation thus far.
This shift is critical to larger multilateral cooperation – there is a unique spillover effect
Boyle and Scmid ‘9 (A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime Dr. Michael J. Boyle and Professor Alex P. Schmid Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the The New Ideas Fund, 2009
The war on terror has more difficult than it would have otherwise been.
The impact is global nuclear war
Dyer 4 – Ph.D. in military and Middle Eastern history from the University of London. He served in the Canadian, American and British navies, and taught military history and war studies at the Canadian Forces College and at the Royal Military Academy. From there, Dyer worked as a freelance journalist, broadcaster and lecturer. His syndicated columns on international affairs appear in a dozen languages in nearly 200 newspapers published in more than 45 countries around the world. He has also made several well-known radio documentaries. In 2010, Dyer was appointed to the Order of Canada for his contributions as a columnist, documentary producer, broadcaster and author. (Gwynne, 12/30, “The end of war,” Lexis)
War is deeply also depend on early and concerted global action of a sort that can only happen in a basically co-operative international system.
The plan reverses Anti-Americanism which is the only way to defeat AQAP
Green ’11 (Daniel Green, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and stability operations, “The American Moment in Yemen”, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/, April 18, 2011, LEQ)
It is becoming haven within which to launch attacks against the United States.
Contention 2 – Stability
Yemen instability causes Naval kick out of the Socotra island
Eshel ’11 (David Eshel, IDF veteran and experienced writer in the world's leading defense publications for many years, “Unstable Yemen Becomes Al Qaeda’s New “Islamic Emirate””, NEWS ANALYSIS, July 26th, 2011, http://defense-update.com/20110726_al_qaeda_in_yemen.html)
Unstable Yemen Becomes Al Qaeda’s New “Islamic Emirate”, LEQ)
Yemen has become a = This dangerous outflanking maneuver of an economically vital waterway is an extraordinary provocation challenging US And instability causes our military forces to withdrawal
Lake ’11 (Eli Lake, The Washington Times, Geopolitics Analyst at the Washington Times, “Pentagon urged to find ‘Plan B’ for base as Yemeni crisis grows”, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/mar/24/pentagon-urged-to-find-plan-b-for-base-as-yemeni-c/?page=all, March 24, 2011, LEQ)
The Pentagon is being It will likely have to do more to take on Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula,” said Mr. Kirk, a reserve Navy intelligence officer who plans to visit Djibouti next month.
Socotra is the vital internal link into US naval supremacy
Chussudovsky 10 (Michael, Professor of Economics at the University of Ottowa and Director of the Centrefor Research on Globalization, "Yemen and the Militarization of Strategic Waterways: Securing US Control over Socotra Island and the Gulf of Aden," Centre for Global Research, February 7, www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=17460)
"Whoever as well as reinforcing the key role played by the Diego Garcia military base in the Chagos archipelago. The US Navy's geostrategist Rear Admiral Alfred T. Mahan had intimated, prior to First World War, that "whoever attains maritime supremacy in the Indian Ocean [will] be a prominent player on the international scene.".(Indian Ocean and our Security). What was at stake in Rear Admiral Mahan's writings was the strategic control by the US of major Ocean sea ways and of the Indian Ocean in particular: "This ocean is the key to the seven seas in the twenty-first century; the destiny of the world will be decided in these waters." MAP 4
A strong US Navy is uniquely critical to preserving benign US heg and international stability
Eaglen and McGrath ’11 (Mackenzie Eaglen is Research Fellow for National Security in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation. Bryan McGrath is a retired naval officer and the Director of Delex Consulting, Studies and Analysis in Vienna, Virginia. On active duty, he commanded the destroyer USS Bulkeley (DDG 84) and served as the primary author of the current maritime strategy, “Thinking About a Day Without Sea Power: Implications for U.S. Defense Policy”, http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2011/05/Thinking-About-a-Day-Without-Sea-Power-Implications-for-US-Defense-Policy, May 16, 2011, LEQ/JGR)
Abstract: America is a maritime power, great oceans that break on its shores.
Collapse of American credibility outweighs
Kagan ‘11 (The Price of Power The benefits of U.S. defense spending far outweigh the costs Jan 24, 2011, Vol. 16, No. 18 • By ROBERT KAGAN Robert Kagan is a contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution.
• American forces. This is a great if recurring illusion, the idea that you can pull a leg out from under a table and the table will not fall over.
Contention 3 – Solvency
Technical assistance is key to capacity building in the Yemeni government – this resolves all structural problems with status quo institutions
OECD 10 (OECD Joint Learning Study, The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development is a unique forum where the governments of market democracies work together to address the economic, social, environmental and governance challenges of globalisation and development. The provides a setting where governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practices and work to co-ordinate domestic and international policies. The European Commission takes part in the work of the OECD, “Enhancing Integrity in Public Procurement in Yemen”, http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/32/9/45916397.pdf, September 2, 2010, LEQ)
Guiding Principles problem-solving by citizens, CSOs and businesses.
Technical assistance aimed at capacity building would create an effective procurement policy for Yemen
OECD 10 (OECD Joint Learning Study, The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development is a unique forum where the governments of market democracies work together to address the economic, social, environmental and governance challenges of globalisation and development. The provides a setting where governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practices and work to co-ordinate domestic and international policies. The European Commission takes part in the work of the OECD, “Enhancing Integrity in Public Procurement in Yemen”, http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/32/9/45916397.pdf, September 2, 2010, LEQ)
1.2. Decentralisation, Poverty Reduction and Procurement Decentralisation ..
accelerate the delivery of basic
