T - Military Assistance

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• 
  

  
  

• A. Interpretation – democracy assistance is a positive action – excludes military action
  Huber, Hebrew University of Jerusalem Department of International Relations, 8
  [Daniela, Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 13, No. 1, 43–62,  March 2008, “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies”, p. 45-6, http://pdfserve.informaworld.com/69109__790479070.pdf, accessed 6-3-11]

  What is Democracy Assistance? The AND DA is more than electoral assistance. 

  B. Violation – the plan is military assistance. 

  C. Standards – 

  1. Limits – allow for military assistance destroys limits – allows for affs to prop up a specific platoon of an army to protect a regime – unpredictable. Positive democracy assistance is the only definition that holds the topic from exploding. 

  2. Ground – maintaining current regimes should be core negative ground – allowing military assistance makes the topic bidirectional. 

  D. Topicality is a voting issue, or the aff will win every debate with a new unpredictable aff. Only competing interpretations avoids judge intervention.

  
  
  

CP - EU

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• Read Against:

  Libya DDR - (Liberty PT)Libya Transparency Governance (Northwestern FS) 

  Tunisia Election Monitoring and Constitutional Assistance - (Kansas CG)

  Tunisia Democratic Institution Building - (Minnesota FS)Egypt Police Training (Vanderbilt SW)

  Texts: 

  The European Union should implement a Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration program in Libya.

  The European Union should provide election monitoring assistance and constitutional reform assistance to Tunisia.

  The European Union should substantially increase funding for democratic institution building in Tunisia.

  The European Union should provide support for transparent democratic governance in Libya.

  Shell-

  Counterplan solves – has the capacity and expertise  

  Diamond, Journal of Democracy Founding Coeditor, 2011, 

  (Larry, "Tunisia’s uncertain transition", Democracy Digest, 1-19, PAS) www.demdigest.net/2011/01/tunisia’s-uncertain-transition/ 8-28-11

  In the coming weeks and monthsAND be tapped to activate assistance quickly.

  US fails – perceived as negative – EU tailored approaches avoid this 

  Abboud, Former International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance Project Coordinator, 2010, 

  (Noufal,  "Regenerating the State in the Arab World: The Role of the European Union in Democracy Building", International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, Pg. 14-15, PAS) www.idea.int/resources/analysis/upload/Abboud_low_1.pdf 8-24-11 

  Finally, the Arab world desperately AND of tolerance,   diversity and justice.

  Block- 

  1. Past experience at home gives them a competitive edge 

  Ashton, European Union Foreign Affairs and Security Policy High Representative, 2011, 

  (Catherine, "THE EUROPEAN UNION RESPONSE TO THE ARAB SPRING", Brookings Institution, Transcript, 7-12, Pg. 8, PAS) 

  www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/events/2011/0712_ashton/20110712_ashton_arab_spring.pdf 8-23-11

  So the challenge of helping them AND but I don’t underestimate the challenge.  

  2. Ignore their empirics – they don’t assume the EU’s new strategy

  Dworkin et al., European Council on Foreign Relations Senior Policy Fellow, 2011, 

  (Anthony, Daniel Korski is a European Council on Foreign Relations Senior Policy Fellow, Nick Witney is a Former Chief Executive at the European Defence Agency,  "Egypt's Hybrid Revolution: A Bolder EU Approach", European Council on Foreign Relations, Brief Policy, Pg. 8-9, PAS) www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR32_EGYPT_BRIEF_AW(1).pdf 8-24-11

  Responding to events on the Mediterranean’s AND ”. In   particular, it proposes:

  3. EU leverage solves – EU can use its economic ties with Tunisia to lead to credible election assistance 

  Mikaïl, FRIDE Senior Researcher, 2011, 

  (Barah, “Tunisia's democratic dream”, EU Observer, 1-19, PAS) http://euobserver.com/892/31667 7-25-11 

  A failure of the Tunisian democratisation AND process that needs deep maturation first.

  The perm doesn’t shield the link – Libya intervention debate proves.

  Landler, NYT, 8-22-11

  [Mark, New York Times, “For Obama, a Moment to Savor, if Briefly” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/23/us/politics/23prexy.html?emc=tnt&tntemail1=y, accessed 8-28-11, TAP]

  At first, the president’s wary AND reject a measure authorizing the mission.

  Egypt Police Training 1NC 

  Text: The European Union should sufficiently fund their CivMil Cell to train mid to upper level officials in SCAF with the IMET curriculum.

  CivMil Cell has the capacity to do the plan.

  Pullinger et al, editor and Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe – Brussels, 6

  (Stephen; Director of Research for this project and co-author: Gerrard Quille (contributed to this report as Programme Director at ISIS Europe, he is currently Adviser on Security and Defence Policy, Policy Department, Directorate General for External Studies, European Parliament - Brussels). Other authors: Giovanni Gasparini (Senior Fellow, Istituto Affari Internazionali – Rome / Consultant, CeMiSS - Rome), Roberto Menotti (Research Fellow, International Programmes, Aspen Institute Italia – Rome / Consultant, CeMiSS - Rome) and Nicoletta Pirozzi (Project Officer, Responding to Conflict Programme, International Security Information Service, Europe - Brussels), June, “Developing EU Civil Military Co-ordination: The Role of the new Civilian Military Cell,” http://www.esdpmap.org/pdf/reports_10.pdf, pages5-6, accessed 9-14-11, CMM)  

  In this context, the creation AND the Cell such an innovative development.  

   

  The CMC is experienced and ready

  Pullinger et al, editor and Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe – Brussels, 6

  (Stephen; Director of Research for this project and co-author: Gerrard Quille (contributed to this report as Programme Director at ISIS Europe, he is currently Adviser on Security and Defence Policy, Policy Department, Directorate General for External Studies, European Parliament - Brussels). Other authors: Giovanni Gasparini (Senior Fellow, Istituto Affari Internazionali – Rome / Consultant, CeMiSS - Rome), Roberto Menotti (Research Fellow, International Programmes, Aspen Institute Italia – Rome / Consultant, CeMiSS - Rome) and Nicoletta Pirozzi (Project Officer, Responding to Conflict Programme, International Security Information Service, Europe - Brussels), June, “Developing EU Civil Military Co-ordination: The Role of the new Civilian Military Cell,” http://www.esdpmap.org/pdf/reports_10.pdf, pages5-6, accessed 9-14-11, CMM)  

  Key commitments under HG2008 include the AND the development of the CivMil Cell. 

  
  
• 
  
  

DA - Israeli Elections

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• 1NC

  
  

• UNIQUENESS and INTERNAL LINK – the left in Israel has momentum and will come to power only if they control the national narrative with economic not security issues. That’s key to the peace-process.
  Bronner, NYT, 7-31-11
  (Ethan, “Israelis Feel Tug of Protests, Reviving the Left’s Spirits,” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/01/world/middleeast/01israel.html?_r=1, accessed 8-2-11, CMM)
  For years Israelis told themselves they AND in a two-state solution. 

  LINK – Israelis perceive US democracy promotion as an existential threat to security
  Stratfor, 5-25-11
  (“In Arab Spring, Disagreement Blossoms Between Israel, U.S.,” http://www.stratfor.com/node/195414/geopolitical_diary/20110525-arab-spring-disagreement-blossoms-between-israel-us, accessed 8-11-11, CMM)
  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed AND Israeli interests (and thus security).

  IMPACT – Arab-Israeli conflict makes nuclear war inevitable
  Nawash, Former Bush Representative to Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, 9
  (Kamal, master of laws, international legal studies, American University, Legal Director of the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee, LLC, first Arab American and Muslim to be nominated to run for the Virginia State Senate, The Muslim Observer, "Israel/Palestine Conflict May Lead to Nuclear War" http://muslimmedianetwork.com/mmn/?p=3501 [accessed 9/3/10])
  Once again the Palestinian/Israeli AND . There are no other choices.

  
  
  

DA - Selective Engagement

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• UNIQUENESS – the US is committed to military presence in Asia – Biden trip proves

  Miles, American Forces Press Service, 8-29-11

  (Donna, Defence Professionals, “Biden: U.S. Presence Vital to Asian Stability, Prosperity,” http://www.defpro.com/news/details/27198/?SID=22da046a72e429c1d83e586a81fe8988, accessed 8-29-11, CMM)

  The United States has been a AND to the region as president.

   

  LINK – US resources and willingness to intervene around the world are finite – increasing interventions in MENA trade off with East Asia – that kills regional stability. 

  Colby, research analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses, 8-10-11

  (Elbridge, consultant to a number of government and military components, served as policy advisor to the Secretary of Defense’s Representative to the New START talks, an expert advisor to the Congressional Strategic Posture Commission, and in a number of other government positions, “Why US Needs its Liberal Empire,” http://the-diplomat.com/2011/08/10/why-us-needs-its-liberal-empire/, accessed 8-24-11, CMM)

  The centre of international gravity is AND too important to be so wasted.

   

  Asian instability escalates to global nuclear war collapsing the economy, the nuclear taboo, and the NPT

  Landay, National Security and Intelligence Correspondent, 2K

  (Jonathan S., “Top administration officials warn stakes for U.S. are high in Asian conflicts”, 3-10, Knight Ridder/Tribune News) Accessed on LexisNexis 12-29-09

  Few if any experts think China AND , according to the Commerce Department.

   

  Block-

   

  No risk of increasing democracy promotion now –

  1) Clinton speech proves

  Nye, University Distinguished Service Professor at Harvard University, 8-4-11

  (Joseph S, was rated by a recent poll as the most influential scholar on American foreign policy, CNN, “Democracy’s drama in terrorism’s theater,” http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/04/democracy%E2%80%99s-drama-in-terrorism%E2%80%99s-theater/, accessed 8-31-11, CMM)

  President George W. Bush was AND change by President Barack Obama’s administration.

   

  2) Obama is axing nation-building now 

  Mandelbaum, Professor and Director of American Foreign Policy at the Johns Hopkins School of International Studies, 8-9-11

  (Michael, Foreign Affairs, “America’s Coming Retrenchment,” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68024/michael-mandelbaum/americas-coming-retrenchment?page=show, accessed 8-12-11, CMM)

  So the United States will be AND is determined to minimize its costs.    

  US absence creates power vacuum.

  Heilbrunn, The National Interest Writer, 10

  (Jacob, 11/23/10, “North Korea's Brinkmanship” http://nationalinterest.org/node/4466, accessed 8/24/11)

  Chalmers Johnson, who died on AND For now America is the pacifier.

   

  No aid has been delivered

  Washington Post (Editorial), 9-28-11

  (“Why Egypt needs the international aid it was promised,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-egypt-needs-the-international-aid-it-was-promised/2011/09/28/gIQAiIFg5K_print.html, accessed 10-18-11, CMM)

  FOR MONTHS Western leaders have proclaimed AND 40 percent of whom are unemployed.

   

  No aid now

  Myers, New York Times, 10-4-11

  [Steven Lee, New York Times, “Foreign Aid Set to Take a Hit in U.S. Budget Crisis,” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/04/us/politics/foreign-aid-set-to-take-hit-in-united-states-budget-crisis.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper, accessed 10-6-11, AFB]

  WASHINGTON — America’s budget crisis at AND kept the government from shutting down.

   

   

  AT: Libya

   

  Libya proves our MENA drawdown arguments

  Gvosdev, former editor of the National Interest, and currently on the faculty of the U.S. Naval War College, 8-26-11

  (Nikolas K., World Politics Review, “The Realist Prism: Obama's Post-Realist Turn in Libya,” http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9892/the-realist-prism-obamas-post-realist-turn-in-libya, accessed 8-27-11, CMM)

  As the Libya operation enters what AND this posed to the United States.

   

  Limited role now

  Dobbins, Rand international security and defense policy director, and Wehrey, Rand senior policy analyst, 8-23-11

  [James, former US assistant secretary of state, and Fredric, “Libyan Nation-building after Qaddafi” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68227/james-dobbins-and-frederic-wehrey/libyan-nation-building-after-qaddafi?page=show#, accessed 9-12-11, TAP]

  Third, there is no international AND weight and influence to take charge.

   

   

  No risk of increasing democracy promotion now –

   

  Repose to the Arab Spring proves

  Kabalan, lecturer in Media and International Relations at Damascus University, 7-8-11

  (Marwan, Gulf News, “Washington has little appetite to lead,” http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/washington-has-little-appetite-to-lead-1.834911, accessed 7-13-11, CMM)

  As the Arab Middle East undergoes AND evolving in the US for sometime.

   

  US regional engagement is strong

  Clinton, Secretary of State, 11

  (Hillary, November, Foreign Policy, “America’s Pacific Century,”

  http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/11/americas_pacific_century?page=full, accessed 10-11-11, CMM)

  We are modernizing our basing arrangements AND our contacts with allies and partners.

   

  Prefer evidence that cites government officials – our efforts in Asia have been low-key

  Clinton, Secretary of State, 11

  (Hillary, November, Foreign Policy, “America’s Pacific Century,”

  http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/11/americas_pacific_century?page=full, accessed 10-11-11, CMM)

  President Obama has led a multifaceted AND in other parts of the world.

   

  US presence is key to check Chinese lash-out and re-assure allies

  Paal, studies vice president at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 9-24-11

  (Douglas H., “Is the US Destabilizing Asia?,” http://the-diplomat.com/2011/09/24/is-the-us-destabilizing-asia/?all=true, accessed 9-30-11, CMM)

  But let me challenge two assumptions AND be far more stabilizing than destabilizing.

   

   

  US hegemony in Asia is key to stability – it solves security dilemmas and empirics prove

  Smith, Reader in War Studies, King’s College, University of London, and Khoo, Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Political Science at Columbia University, 1

  ( Michael L.R., Nicholas, 8-1-01, Policy review, no. 108, “A "Concert of Asia"?,” http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/7060, accessed 8-24-11, CMM)

  Furthermore, those who espouse the AND the United States at the top. 

  
  
• 
  
  

T - "Its"

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• \\

  
  

• A. Interpretation – Unfreezing Libyan assets does not increase “its” democracy assistance

  1. “Its” indicates possession – i.e. the democracy assistance possessed by the USFG
     English Language Guide, no date
     “POSSESSIVE ADJECTIVE”, http://www.englishlanguageguide.com/english/grammar/possessive-adjective.asp, accessed 9-7-9)
     POSSESSIVE ADJECTIVE Definition: Possesive adjectives AND "its" modifies "ball".

  2. US democracy assistance is a distinct budgetary category in the foreign assistance budget
  Carothers, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace vice president for studies overseeing the Democracy and Rule of Law Program, Middle East Program, and Carnegie Europe, 9
  [Thomas, founder and director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program, “Revitalizing U.S. Democracy Assistance: The Challenge of USAID,” http://www.scribd.com/doc/21802142/Revitalizing-U-S-Democracy-Assistance-The-Challenge-of-USAID, p. 4, accessed 9-5-11]
  Over the past 25 years, AND player in the democracy aid domain. 

  B. Violation – The plan does not substantially increase US democracy assistance – giving Libyans their own assets does not mean the US has increase “its” democracy assistance

  C. Reasons to Prefer

  1. Moots the question – their approach destroys topic education and informed policy making - A lack of precision undermines the ability to rigorously test whether or not democracy assistance is a good idea – it destroys the educational value of the topic.
     Lappin, University of Leuven (Belgium) Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies PhD candidate, 10
     [Richard, participant in democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE, and Carter Center, University of Belgrade political sciences visiting scholar, Central European Journal of International & Security Studies,  Volume 4 Issue 1, “What we talk about when we talk about democracy assistance: the problem of definition in post-conflict approaches to democratization” http://www.cejiss.org/issue/2010-volume-4-issue-1/lappin, p.189, accessed 5-16-11, TP]
     This article has examined the emergence AND effective democratic means will remain improbable.  

  2. Destroys neg ground – Unfreezing assets does not increase US democracy assistance – those assets are Libyan, not US possessions – and contextual evidence proves the ground loss – politicians advocate unfreezing assets as an alternative to increasing US aid
  Emery, Boston Globe Political Intelligence writer, 8-23-11
  [Theo, Boston Globe, “Congress could resist additional aid to Libya”, http://www.boston.com/Boston/politicalintelligence/2011/08/congress-could-resist-additional-aid-libya/DMmIHbENjJ0A6QBAednf0M/index.html, accessed 9-14-11, AFB]
  Foreign policy experts say the immediate AND to build in any one time?”

  Voting Issue – You should err negative on topicality to preserve fairness and education – non-topical affirmatives impact our ability to effectively and rigorously test policies and prevent us from learning about the topic

  
  
  

Politics - Jobs Bill

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• \\

  
  

• Shell-
  A. Uniqueness - Comprehensive jobs legislations will pass – Obama is rallying momentum and using the bully pulpit.
  Sands-Sadowitz, The Hill, 9-16-11
  [Geneva, “Carter: Obama jobs bill strategy will succeed” http://thehill.com/video/in-the-news/181987-carter-obama-jobs-bill-strategy-will-succeed, accessed 9-16-11, TAP]
  Former President Carter said he thinks AND there will be negative political consequences. 

  B. Link- 

  1. Democracy assistance is unpopular – republicans will backlash against Obama for spending.
     Arnold, VOA News, 8-8-11
     (David, “US Debt Struggle Puts Middle East Aid Commitments in Question,” http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/US-Debt-Struggle-Puts-Middle-East-Aid-Commitments-in-Question-127258298.html, accessed 8-8-11, CMM)
     When lawmakers in the U.AND when the House bill was passed.

  2. Obama must use his political muscle in order to ensure a successful jobs bill.
  Cohen, Non-Profit Quarterly, 9-13-11
  [Rick, “Obama’s Jobs Bill: Ready to Take a Chance Again?” http://www.nonprofitquarterly.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=15811:obamas-jobs-bill-ready-to-take-a-chance-again&catid=153:features&Itemid=336, accessed 9-15-11, TAP]

  What’s clearer is the fact that AND campaign—will fail as well.

  C. Internal Link - A double dip recession is coming and would be disastrous for the economy – the jobs bill fills in for consumer spending, staving it off.
  Zanki, The Express Times, 9-15-11
  [Tom, “Economist Kamran Afshar: Double-dip recession would be 'disastrous'” http://www.lehighvalleylive.com/breaking-news/index.ssf/2011/09/economist_kamran_afshar_double.html, accessed 9-16-11, TAP]

  Afshar is not embracing the soAND is the time to do it."

  D. Impact - Economic collapse leads to global war.
  Lind, New America Foundation Economic Growth Program Policy Director, 5/11/2010
  [Michael, "Will the great recession lead to World War IV?," http://www.salon.com/news/economics/index.html?story=/opinion/feature/2010/05/11/great_recession_world_war_iv]

  If history is any guide, AND is all too easy to imagine.

  Overview-

  Turns case – economic downturn hurts movements – results in counter movements.
  Amery, Colorado School of Mines arts and international studies professor, 2011
  [Hussein, The Arab Geographer, Vol 14 num 2 summer, “State Legitimacy from Below: ‘The Land Speaks Arabic’” p.140, TAP]
  Subterranean social movements in the Arab AND of maturity, producing widespread revolutions. 

  Decline causes withdrawal from the world
  Friedberg and Schoenfeld – 8 (Aaron, professor of politics and international relations at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School, and Gabriel, visiting scholar at the Witherspoon Institute, “The Dangers of a Diminished America”, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122455074012352571.html, accessed 9-24-10, CMM)
  With the global financial system in AND as the one we now face.  

  AT: Jobs Bill Insufficient- 

  Jobs bill prevents a double dip – their generic takeout isn’t specific to double dip.
  Charlotte Observer, 9-15-11
  [“A jobs plan that puts Washington to work” http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2011/09/15/2608247/a-jobs-plan-that-puts-washington.html, accessed 9-15-11, TAP]
  The American Jobs Act is a AND instead of falling into another recession.

  Jobs bill good – helps prevent US double dip and helps Obama win reelection
  Reich, UC Berkeley Public Policy Professor and Former Secretary of Labor, 2011,
  (Robert,  "President Obama needs a bold jobs plan", SFGate, 8-28, PAS) www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/08/28/INQA1KR0UD.DTL&type=printable 9-3-11
  The president says he'll propose a AND smaller government leads to more jobs.

  Links-

  AND Obama must prove his resolve – he has to prioritize the economy.
  Myers, former Clinton White House press secretary, 9-12-11
  [Dee Dee, Politico, “To win on jobs, Obama must dig in” http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=E5ABF6CC-E711-4221-97AC-BFC6C4183B70, accessed 9-14-11, TAP]
  One of the most moving parts AND good, but about his resolve. 

  Tunisia aid controversial – Congress prefers private sector engagement.
  Arieff, Analyst in African Affairs, 11
  [Alexis, “Political Transition in Tunisia” Congressional Research Service,” http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RS21666.pdf, 06-27-11, access date: 09-01-11, MAY]
  Congress authorizes, appropriates, and AND corporate governance, among other aims.

  A. Increase must be a net increase
  Rogers, Circuit Judge, 2005
  [“ STATE OF NEW YORK, ET AL., PETITIONERS v. U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY, RESPONDENT, NSR MANUFACTURERS ROUNDTABLE, ET AL., INTERVENORS”, U.S. App. LEXIS 12378, June 2005, access date: 09-14-11, MAY]

  [*48]  Statutory Interpretation. AND the engine was in perfect condition.
   

  B. That’s key to neg ground-it’s impossible to quantify a substantial increase otherwise
  Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, 10
  [Jeremy, “U.S. Foreign Assistance to the Middle East: Historical Background, Recent Trends, and the FY2011 Request” www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL32260.pdf, 06-15-10, access date: 09-14-11, MAY]

  U.S. officials promote AND and therefore a target for critics.

  C. Voting issue and reject the team-time-investment in theory means we have to fight an uphill battle just to get back to square 1-and, topicality is a yes/no question, so shifting aff mechanism radically alters our strategy and means they’re vague and conditional

  Reappropriations link-

  A. Congress has to authorize reallocations and they backlash
  Rogin, Staff Writer, 2011
  [Josh, “Lugar holding up State Department funds for Tunisian democracy” Foreign Policy, thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/04/06/lugar_holding_up_state_department_funds_for_tunisian_democracy, 04-06-11, access date: 09-14-11, MAY]
  The State Department wants to shift AND of the money could be found. 

  B. Congress still backlashes
  Stone and Bendery, Senior national correspondent and Roll Call's White House correspondent, 2011
  [Andrea Stone and Jennifer Bendery, "Obama Middle East Speech: President Will Announce Billions In Economic Aid to Egypt, Tunisia" Huffington Post, www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/18/obama-middle-east-speech-billions-aid_n_863927.html, 5-18-11, access date: 09-14-11, MAY]
   None of the money requires AND similar objections to erasing Egypt's debt.

  AT: Winner's Win-

  _Sequencing – even if the plan is popular, it diverts capital from his immediate agenda
  Drew, Public Policy Examiner, 10/25/2009
  [Alton, "Getting down and dirty not good policy or politics," http://www.examiner.com/x-18558-Public-Policy-Examiner~y2009m10d25-Mr-Obama-Getting-down-and-dirty-not-good-policy-or-politics, 10/25]
  While these events give the president AND to weak policy making and execution.

  _ Spent political capital won’t come back – even if it does, it won’t affect agenda items
  Porter, Slant staff writer, 9/22/2009
  [Ethan, "Obama’s political capital problem," http://trueslant.com/ethanporter/2009/09/22/obamas-political-capital-problem/, 9/25]
  But as Mark Twain pointed outAND can be perilously short-lived.

  _ Backlash overwhelms the plan’s win – no short-term material benefits of the plan
  Porter, Slant staff writer, 9/22/2009
  [Ethan, "Obama’s political capital problem," http://trueslant.com/ethanporter/2009/09/22/obamas-political-capital-problem/, 9/25]
  I had assumed that, following AND thing that’s easy to get back.

  AT: Political Capital Not Key-

  Political capital is necessary to legislative success.
  Marshall, Miami University political science associate professor, and Prins, University of Tennessee Knoxville political science associate professor, 2011
  [Bryan and Brandon, 9-2011, Presidential Studies Quarterly, Vol 41 Issue 3, “Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force” Wiley-Blackwell, p.525-6, accessed 7-30-11, TAP]
  Based on this line of argumentAND successfully promote their other policy objectives.

  It will pass but polcap is key.
  Alter, Bloomberg, 9-11-11
  [Jonathon, “To pass Jobs Act Obama should channel LBJ Government Analysis” Lexis, accessed 9-15-11, TAP]
  "Now for the Hard PartAND bridges or schools in your district. 

  
  
  

Case Neg - Libya DDR

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• \\

  
  

• GSU - Rd. 1
  1NC
  T - Military Assistance
  T - "Its"
  EU CP
  Israeli Elections
  Selective Engagement
  Politics 

  AT: Solvency 

  1. The government will say no – they fear US intentions
     Carothers, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the founder and director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program, and Youngs, director general of FRIDE (European think tank) and assistant professor at the University of Warwick in the UK, 7-14-11
     (Thomas, a leading authority on democracy promotion and democratization worldwide as well as an expert on U.S. foreign policy generally, and Richard, “Democracy Promotion in the Age of Rising Powers,” http://carnegie-mec.org/publications/?fa=45029, accessed 8-16-11, CMM)
     Are rising democracies interested in democracy AND ., intentions in the developing world. 

  Government backlash to the plan smothers solvency
  Youngs, director general of FRIDE and assistant professor at the University of Warwick, UK, 10
  (Richard, FRIDE is an independent think-tank based in Madrid, focused on issues related to democracy and human rights; peace and security; and humanitarian action and development, June, “How to Revitalise Democracy Assistance: Recipients’ Views” http://www.fride.org/download/WP100_How_revitalise_democracy_ENG_jul2010.pdf, pages 8-9, accessed 9-2-11, CMM)
  This lesson has been taken on AND that such organisations agitate for succession. 

  2. The public says no to the plan
  AAI, Arab American Institute, 7-18-11
  (The AAI is a non-profit, nonpartisan national leadership organization; AAI was created to nurture and encourage the direct participation of Arab Americans in political and civic life in the United States, “America in Trouble in the Middle East: Obama Understands, but GOP Gloats,” http://www.aaiusa.org/dr-zogby/entry/america-in-trouble-in-the-middle-east-obama-understands-but-gop-gloats/, accessed 9-1-11, CMM)
  What our respondents tell us is AND and are treading on dangerous ground.

  *Countries polled = Morocco, Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE

  That kills solvency
  Carpenter, Cato Institute vice president for defense and foreign policy studies, 2-11-11
  (Ted Galen, Cato, “What Should U.S. Do about Egypt? Very Little,”
  http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12780, accessed 8-31-11, CMM)
  Though the spectacular events in Cairo AND too little, much too late.

  TNC will fail – infighting.
  Boot, CFR senior fellow, 8-24-11
  [Max, Council on Foreign Relations, “Libya's problems are far from over” http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-boot-libya-20110824,0,4969337.story, accessed 9-11-11, TAP]
  There is also the probability of AND and equipped security forces to command.

  US fails – delegitimizes the new government.
  Applebaum, Washington Post, 8-23-11
  [Anne, “Let Libya take charge of its revolution” http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/let-libya-take-charge-of-its-revolution/2011/08/23/gIQAmuEuZJ_story.html, accessed 9-11-11, TAP]
  The Libyan revolution needn’t end in AND we risk immediately making it unpopular.

  The plan is meaningless – their revolution, not ours.
  Applebaum, Washington Post, 8-23-11
  [Anne, “Let Libya take charge of its revolution” http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/let-libya-take-charge-of-its-revolution/2011/08/23/gIQAmuEuZJ_story.html, accessed 9-11-11, TAP]
  Fortunately for us, leading from AND of ammunition to replace back home.

  AT: Cred-

  1. Credibility low and will remain low – too many negative perceptions of US action
     PRC, Pew Research Center, 5-17-11
     ("Obama's Challenge in the Muslim World," http://pewglobal.org/2011/05/17/arab-spring-fails-to-improve-us-image/, accessed 9-3-11, CMM)
     As President Obama prepares to make AND much with the U.S. 

  2. Huge alt cause to cred – Palestine
  Dorsey, Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, 8-26-11
  (James M., Eurasia Review, “US And The Middle East: PR Fiasco Looms For Obama – Analysis,” http://www.eurasiareview.com/26082011-us-and-the-middle-east-pr-fiasco-looms-for-obama-analysis/, accessed 9-12-11, CMM)
  COME SEPTEMBER the United States will AND speech in Cairo in June 2009.

   

  AT: Libya Instability
  Intervention and violence empirically are less likely to result in a transition to democracy.
  Stoner, Waging Nonviolence, 3-30-11
  [Eric, “Zunes critiques war on Libya, offers nonviolent alternatives” http://wagingnonviolence.org/2011/03/zunes-critiques-war-on-libya-offers-nonviolent-alternatives/, accessed 9-12-11, TAP]
  As always, Stephen Zunes’ writings AND was not well-organized strategically.

  No risk of nuclear terrorism
  A. No organizational capacity
  van den Bergh, Eramus University IR Professor, Hague Social Studies Institute, Harvard Harkness Fellow, Neterlands Association for International Affairs Chairman, Dutch Ministries Foreign Affairs and Defense IR Advisory Council Member, May 2009
  [Godfried van Benthem, "The Taming of the Great Nuclear Powers," http://www.carnegieendowment.org/npp/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=23152]
  Recently, a new fear has AND small, relatively autonomous “cells.”  

  B. Probability of success is so low that there is also no motive
  DeGroot, St. Andrews University History Professor, November 2009
  [Gerard, "Dismissing Doomsday," http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_11/BookReview, 11/9AND ]
  Mueller sees nuclear weapons as a AND and expense—contradicts that ethic.

  No increased production – setbacks will last decades – history proves.
  Krauss, NYT, 8-23-11
  [Clifford, “After the Revolution, Hurdles in Reviving the Oil Sector” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/24/business/global/libya-faces-hurdles-in-reviving-its-oil-sector.html?emc=tnt&tntemail1=y, accessed 9-10-11, TAP]
  HOUSTON — When a new government AND all the existing contracts and relationships.”

  
  
  

Case Neg - Tunisia Election Assistance

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• \\

  
  

• GSU - Rd. 4
  1NC
  Selective Engagement
  EU
  Politics 

  GSU - Rd. 5
  Vagueness
  EU CP
  Selective Engagement
  Politics - Jobs 

  AT: Solvency 

  Tunisia will say no – they don’t want foreign intervention – that kills cred.
  Barnett, Policy Mic, 6-24-11
  [Carolyn, “When We Don't Need U.S. Aid” http://www.policymic.com/articles/when-we-don-t-need-u-s-aid, accessed 9-13-11, TAP]
  The real question is not what AND ultimately harm our image and influence.

  Elections doomed to fail – October 23rd is too soon – cant possibly get enough of the material in time
  Diamond, Journal of Democracy Founding Coeditor, 2011,
  (Larry, "Tunisia’s uncertain transition", Democracy Digest, 1-19, PAS) www.demdigest.net/2011/01/tunisia’s-uncertain-transition/ 8-28-11
  Unfortunately, the demise of a AND time and resources to function effectively. 

  No solvency – Ben Ali crushed the soul out of the opposition.
  Heydemann, United States Institute of Peace vice president, 1-26-11
  [Steven, “Tunisia and the future of democracy promotion in the Arab world” http://www.hivos.nl/eng/News/News/Tunisia-and-the-future-of-democracy-promotion-in-the-Arab-world, accessed 8-21-11, TAP]
  If Arab regimes are learning from AND the arbitrary power of authoritarian regimes.

  Elections won’t solve instability – the youth will be angry until they get jobs.
  Giuffrida, New York Times, 6-22-11
  [Angela, “Free, but Unemployed, in Tunisia” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/23/world/africa/23iht-M23-TUNISIA-JOBS.html?tntemail1=y&emc=tnt&pagewanted=all, accessed 8-24-11, TAP]
  Still, five months after the AND the future of the Arab Spring.

  Econ down – structural problems.
  Maddy-Weitzman, Tel Aviv University Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies Marcia Israel Senior research fellow, 2011
  [Bruce, Middle East Quarterly, Summer 2011, Vol XVIII Num 3, “Tunisia's Morning After
  Middle Eastern Upheavals” http://www.meforum.org/2977/tunisia-after-revolution, accessed 8-21-11, TAP]
  The Economy Two additional factors that AND especially among the young.[16]

  Foreign direct investment down in Tunisia.
  Maddy-Weitzman, Tel Aviv University Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies Marcia Israel Senior research fellow, 2011
  [Bruce, Middle East Quarterly, Summer 2011, Vol XVIII Num 3, “Tunisia's Morning After
  Middle Eastern Upheavals” http://www.meforum.org/2977/tunisia-after-revolution, accessed 8-21-11, TAP]
  On April 1, Tunisia's finance AND in loans for 2011.[19]

  Elections assistance is insufficient – its just one of many critical steps
  Cohen and Ku_pc_u_, New America Foundation, 9
  (Michael A. and Maria F., April, “Revitalizing U.S. Democracy Promotion: A Comprehensive Plan for Reform,” http://www.newamerica.net/files/nafmigration/Revitalizing_US_Democracy_Promotion.pdf, page 5, accessed 9-2-11, CMM)
  Democratization is the work of generationsAND illiberal regime into a democracy overnight. 

  AT: Advantages
  Iran influence low now
  Tisdall, Guardian Foreign Affairs Columnist and Assistant Editor, 2011,
  (Simon, "Iran has been isolated by the Arab spring", Guardian, 5-17, PAS) www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/17/iran-arab-spring 9-2-11
  Nerves are fraying in Tehran as AND goals, will definitely become victorious." 

  Iran credibility decline now – Syria crushes it
  Fassihi, Wall Street Journal Middle East and Africa Deputy Bureau Chief, 2011,
  (Farnaz, "Iran Feels Heat Over Support for Damascus", Wall Street Journal, 8-31, PAS) Accessed on Factiva 8-31-11
  BEIRUT—Iran's steadfast support for AND outside of mosques in the morning. 

  US working to undermine Iran now – democracy assistance not key
  Barnes et al, WSJ, 9-6-11
  (Julian, Adam Entous, Siobhan Gorman, “US Eyes Covert Plan to Counter Iran in Iraq,” 9-6-11, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903895904576547233284967482.html?mod=googlenews_wsj, accessed 9-14-11) PM
  WASHINGTON—Military commanders and intelligence AND increased arms smuggling to its allies.

  Iran has no influence in Tunisia
  Doran, New York University Public Service Graduate School Visiting Professor, 2011,
  (Michael Scott, “The Heirs of Nasser: Who Will Benefit From the Second Arab Revolution?”, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 90, Iss. 3, May/June, PAS) Accessed on ProQuest 7-13-11
  This is not to say that AND spinning on their own independent axis.

  No risk of any US-China war – economic interdependency
  Richburg, Washington Post, staff writer, 11/15/2009
  [Keith, "On eve of Obama visit, an uneasy co-dependency between U.S. and China," http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/15/AR2009111502435.html, 11/16]
  As President Obama begins his threeAND If not, we both lose." 

  No chance of China war – political moderation solves
  Deudney, John Hopkins Political Science Professor, and Ikenberry, Princeton Politics and Int'l Affairs Professor, Jan/Feb 2009
  [Daniel, John, " The Myth of the Autocratic Revival ," http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20090101faessay88106/daniel-deudney-g-john-ikenberry/the-myth-of-the-autocratic-revival.html?mode=print]
  The prospects for revisionist behavior on AND strong tendencies toward normalization operating here.

  Extending the nuclear umbrella past Iran fails – suspicion of US-Israeli committment
  McInnis, CSIS Research Associate and Project on Nuclear Issues Coordinator, Summer 2005
  [Kathleen, "Extended Deterrence: the US credibility gap in the middle east," www.twq.com/05summer/docs/05summer_mcinnis.pdf]
  Saudi and Egyptian concern about the AND change Riyadh’s and Cairo’s calculus today.

  Al Qaeda is too weak to influence Egypt or Tunisia – old allies are distancing themselves
  McCants, CNA's Center for Strategic Studies analyst and adjunct faculty member, Johns Hopkins University, 11
  (William, Sept/Oct, Foreign Affairs, “Al Qaeda's Challenge.,” ebsco, accessed 9-5-11, CMM)
  The outcome in Egypt is particularly AND sway even among its natural allies.

  No organizational capacity
  van den Bergh, Eramus University IR Professor, Hague Social Studies Institute, Harvard Harkness Fellow, Neterlands Association for International Affairs Chairman, Dutch Ministries Foreign Affairs and Defense IR Advisory Council Member, May 2009
  [Godfried van Benthem, "The Taming of the Great Nuclear Powers," http://www.carnegieendowment.org/npp/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=23152]
  Recently, a new fear has AND small, relatively autonomous “cells.”  

  Probability of success is so low that there is also no motive
  DeGroot, St. Andrews University History Professor, November 2009
  [Gerard, "Dismissing Doomsday," http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_11/BookReview, 11/9]
  Mueller sees nuclear weapons as a AND and information for bomb-making.

  No impact- bio-weapons to difficult to build and disperse- history proves- AND- even if they could be effective the perceived barriers doom motivation
  Stratfor, 12-21-2007, "Bioterrorism: Sudden Death Overtime?," http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/bioterrorism_sudden_death_overtime
  First, it must be recognized AND cost is higher than the benefit.

  Russia will de-escalate
  Hellberg, Retired Colonel, Russian general Staff Academy Graduate, Former Finland Assistant Military attache, Feb. 2010
  [Jukka, "Russia' Declining Military Might,"  http://www.suomensotilas.fi/pdf/Russia_in_english.pdf, 3/10]
  The content of the military doctrine AND grounds to play it nice together.

  War will be avoided at all costs
  Hellberg, Retired Colonel, Russian general Staff Academy Graduate, Former Finland Assistant Military attache, Feb. 2010
  [Jukka, "Russia' Declining Military Might,"  http://www.suomensotilas.fi/pdf/Russia_in_english.pdf, 3/10]
  The development of Russia’s military potential AND : solving its own problems first.

  No internal link – 7th Fleet key to Pacific power projection
  Defense & Foreign Affairs' Strategic Policy, 10
  [BYLINE: A Staff Report, August 2010, “The Game Has Changed in the Indo-Pacific Maritime Zone”, p. 20, Lexis]
  Significantly, although the PRC maintains AND passivity (to China's notable discomfort)."

  Middle East conflict won’t spillover or escalate
  Cook and Takeyh, CFR Middle Eastern Studies senior fellow, 6-28-07
  [Ray, and Steven A., Douglas Dillon fellow, "Why the Iraq war won't engulf the Mideast," http://www.cfr.org/publication/13702/]
  Finally, there is no precedent AND from enveloping the entire Middle East.  

  Even conventional retaliation against civilians wouldn’t happen
  Gerecht, AEI resident fellow, 7-10-06
  [Reuel Marc, "Cognitive Dissonance: The State of America’s Iran Policy," http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.24637,filter.all/pub_detail.asp]
  It seems unthinkable that the United AND terrorism-fond radical Islamic states. 

  No modeling – development was years in progress – Egypt proves
  Schenker, Washington Institute for Near East Policy Arab Politics Program Director, 2011,
  (David, “Egypt’s Enduring Challenges Shaping the Post-Mubarak Environment”, Policy Focus #110, April, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Pg. 11, PAS) http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus110.pdf 7-16-11
  To many, the Papyrus Revolution AND and security services   prone to excesses. 

  No model – economic issues were the reason for protest – Egypt proves  
  Zunes, San Francisco University Politics Professor, 2011,
  (Stephen, "Credit the Egyptian People for the Egyptian Revolution", 2-17, PAS)
  stephenzunes.org/2011/02/17/credit-the-egyptian-people-for-the-egyptian-revolution/ 8-8-11
  Nor was it a spontaneous reaction AND Tunisians would beat them to it.)

  War will be avoided at all costs
  Hellberg, Retired Colonel, Russian general Staff Academy Graduate, Former Finland Assistant Military attache, Feb. 2010
  [Jukka, "Russia' Declining Military Might,"  http://www.suomensotilas.fi/pdf/Russia_in_english.pdf, 3/10]
  The development of Russia’s military potential AND : solving its own problems first.

  Alt cause – Libyan instability leads to a surge in oil prices  
  Bloomberg, 2011,
  (Grant Smith, "Oil May Surge to $220 If Libya, Algeria Halt, Nomura Says", 2-23, PAS) www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-23/oil-may-surge-to-220-a-barrel-if-libya-algeria-halt-output-nomura-says.html 9-17-11
  Oil prices may surge to $AND Michael Lo in Hong Kong wrote.

  Oil impact inevitable – Libya setbacks will last decades – history proves.
  Krauss, NYT, 8-23-11
  [Clifford, “After the Revolution, Hurdles in Reviving the Oil Sector” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/24/business/global/libya-faces-hurdles-in-reviving-its-oil-sector.html?emc=tnt&tntemail1=y, accessed 9-10-11, TAP]
  HOUSTON — When a new government AND all the existing contracts and relationships.”

  Russia is not expansive – won’t go to war
  Mankoff, Yale University International Security Studies Associate Director, 2009,
  (Jeffrey, “Russian Foreign Policy: The Return of Great Power Politics”, Pg. 22-23, PAS)
  The fact that Russia’s ambitions are AND hops to de-ideologize.45

  
  
  

Case Neg - Yemen Technical Assistance

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• AT: Solvency

  Corruption irrelevant – government will gun down protestors 

  Stratfor, 10-25, 2011,

  ("Yemen: 15 Dead After Cease-Fire Breached", PAS) www.stratfor.com/node/203816/sitrep/20111025-yemen-15-dead-after-cease-fire-breached 10-30-11

  Fifteen people were killed in Sanaa AND the third ceasefire breached since May.

   

  Yemen’s public will backlash to the plan

  Terrill, Research Professor of National Security Affairs, SSI, 1-27-11

  (W. Andrew, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, “The Conflicts in Yemen and U.S. National Security”, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubid=1040, pg xi, accessed 9-7-11, CMM)

  Yemen is also an especially distrustful AND .-Yemeni secu- rity relations.

   

  Instability inevitable –too many challenges

  Ulrichsen, research fellow and deputy director of the Kuwait Programme on Development, Governance and Globalisation in the Gulf States at the London School of Economics and Political Science, 10

  (Kristian Coates, Summer, “The Geopolitics of Insecurity in the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula,” http://www.mepc.org/journal/middle-east-policy-archives/geopolitics-insecurity-horn-africa-and-arabian-peninsula?print, accessed 9-7-11, CMM)

  This country of nearly 24 million AND undermines formal controls and border security.

   

  Instability inevitable – No Middle Class or Public Institutions 

  Filkins, The New Yorker Journalist, 2011,

  (Dexter, “After the Uprising”, The New Yorker, 4-11, PAS) http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/04/11/110411fa_fact_filkins?currentPage=all 7-19-11

  As officials in both Washington and AND S. has designated a terrorist.

   

   

   

  AT: Heg

  Trade key to multilat

  Matthews, Carnegie Endowment President, 2007

  [Jessica, 11-8-7, "Europe and the US: Confronting Global Challenges," http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/transcript_mandelson.pdf]

  Our open markets are a ladder AND measures when people break those rules.

   

  The plan can’t solve US credibility – Palestine outweighs

  Brenner, University of Pittsburgh International Affairs Professor and Center for Transatlantic Relations Senior Fellow, 9-29, 2011,

  (Michael, "America in the Middle East: Dim the Lights', Huffington Post, PAS) www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-brenner/obama-israel-policy_b_986879.html?ir=Politics 9-29-11

  The United States' strategic position in AND -- and beyond -- severely compromised.

   

   

   

  AT: Terrorism

  No terrorism takeover – Al Qaeda is no longer a threat  

  Ashour, Brookings Visiting Fellow, 9-7, 2011,

  (Omar, "From 9/11 to the Arab Spring", Brookings Institute, PAS) www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0907_arab_spring_ashour.aspx 9-20-11

  Al Qaeda's operating environment today is AND global threat has been severely undermined.

   

  Al Qaeda’s isn’t relevant in Arab society – there’s only a risk that the plan reverses this

  Feffer, co-director of Foreign Policy In Focus at the Institute for Policy Studies, 9-5-11

  (John, InterPress Service,“Al-Qaeda Lost the Battle Long Ago,” http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=104991, accessed 9-6-11, CMM)

  Al-Qaeda was certainly devoted AND even before we entered the battlefield.\

   

  No risk of a rampant al Qaeda – they’re too weak and tribal politics constrain them

  Spencer, a retired British infantry commander and a strategic analyst on political, security, and trade issue of MENA, Yemen specialist, 6-8-11

  (James, Foreign Affairs, “A False Dawn for Yemen’s Militants,” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67883/james-spencer/a-false-dawn-for-yemens-militants?page=show#, accessed 7-27-11, CMM)

  Throughout Yemen's political crisis, the AND AQAP's operation rather than enable it.

   

  Yemeni people won’t support AQAP due to religious differences

  Horton, Jamestown Foundation Arabian Affairs Senior Analyst, 2011,

  (Michael, "Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Challenges and Opportunities in Revolutionary Yemen", Pak Tea House, 4-27, PAS) pakteahouse.net/2011/04/27/al-qaeda-in-the-arabian-peninsula-challenges-and-opportunities-in-revolutionary-yemen/ 9-25-11

  In a recent article entitled “AND effect that should not be underestimated.

  Block-

  No solvency – too many problems in Yemen now

  Boucek, Associate, Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment, 7-19-11

  (Christopher, Congressional Testimony, “U.S. Policy in Yemen,” p1, Google, accessed 9-7-11, CMM)

  Yemen is facing an unprecedented confluence AND foreign policy and national security interests.

   

  Yemen instability inevitable – problems are endemic

  Boucek and Revkin, Carnegie Endowment, 11

  (Christopher, Associate, Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment; Mara, “The Unraveling of the Salih Regime in Yemen,” http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/03/31/unraveling-of-salih-regime-in-yemen/2sg, accessed 9-7-11, CMM)

  The wave of popular uprisings sweeping AND the problems currently facing Yemen’s government. 

   

   

  Instability inevitable

  Kasinof, NYT, 9-7-11

  (Laura, “Yemen’s Leaders Fail to Resolve Stalemate,” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/08/world/middleeast/08yemen.html, accessed 9-7-11, CMM)

  Now Yemen is coming undone. AND has stepped up attacks against them.

   

   

  AT: Nuclear Terrorism

  No risk of nuclear terrorism

  A. No organizational capacity

  van den Bergh, Eramus University IR Professor, Hague Social Studies Institute, Harvard Harkness Fellow, Neterlands Association for International Affairs Chairman, Dutch Ministries Foreign Affairs and Defense IR Advisory Council Member, May 2009

  [Godfried van Benthem, "The Taming of the Great Nuclear Powers," http://www.carnegieendowment.org/npp/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=23152]

  Recently, a new fear has AND small, relatively autonomous “cells.” 

   

  B. Probability of success is so low that there is also no motive

  DeGroot, St. Andrews University History Professor, November 2009

  [Gerard, "Dismissing Doomsday," http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_11/BookReview, 11/9]

  Mueller sees nuclear weapons as a AND and information for bomb-making.    

  AT: Water Wars

  No water wars – countries cooperate instead

  Barnaby, editor of People and Science, ‘9

  (Wendy, People and Science is the magazine published by the British Scientists, “Do Nations go to war over water,” Nature, 459:163, March 2009, http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v458/n7236/full/458282a.html, accessed 10-19-11) PM

   

  The United Nations warned as recently AND formal declarations of war over water2.

   

  No water wars – their authors don’t assume virtual water

  Barnaby, editor of People and Science, ‘9

  (Wendy, People and Science is the magazine published by the British Scientists, “Do Nations go to war over water,” Nature, 459:163, March 2009, http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v458/n7236/full/458282a.html, accessed 10-19-11) PM

   

  Allan's earlier thinking about water wars AND thanks to the benefits of trade.

   

  Empirically denied – true in the Middle East

  Barnaby, editor of People and Science, ‘9

  (Wendy, People and Science is the magazine published by the British Scientists, “Do Nations go to war over water,” Nature, 459:163, March 2009, http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v458/n7236/full/458282a.html, accessed 10-19-11) PM

   

  Israel ran out of water in AND down the Nile to Egyptian farmers.

  
  
• 
  
  

Round Reports

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• Neg: Mary Washington PS

  Round #8  Tournament: Harvard

  Vs Team: Wake LQ

  Judge: Will Repko

   

   

  Off Case Args:

  Asian focus trade off disad

  Boehner China Politics

  End drones CP

  Implementation spec

  Police not topical

   

   

  Case Args:

  Say no

   

   

  Block Strategy:

  Say no

   

   

   

  2nr Strategy:

  Asian focus trade off disad

  
  
• 
  
  

Politics - Payroll Tax Cut

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• A. Uniqueness – Obama is gearing up for another extension of payroll tax cuts – passage is likely because he has the upper hand.

  Collender, Wall Street Pit, 12-29-11

  (Steven, “Payroll Tax Extension Will Be Only Hostage-Taking Opportunity for GOP in 2012,” http://wallstreetpit.com/88167-payroll-tax-extension-will-be-only-hostage-taking-opportunity-for-gop-in-2012, accessed 12-29-11, CMM)

   

  “Payroll Tax Extension Will Be AND Bush/Obama tax cuts expire.

   

  B. Link – democracy aid costs political capital.

  Carothers, president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 9

  (Thomas, vice. In this capacity, he oversees the Democracy and Rule of Law Program and Carnegie Europe, practiced international and financial law at Arnold & Porter and served as an attorney-adviser in the Office of the Legal Adviser of the U.S. Department of State, A.B., Harvard College; M.Sc., London School of Economics; J.D., Harvard Law School, 2009, pages 48-49, carnegieendowment.org/files/revitalizing_democracy_assistance.pdf, accessed 12-30-11)

   

  In any event, the Obama AND on entrenched interests in many quarters.

   

  Payroll tax cut extension requires political capital.

  Pace, AP, 12-23-11

  (Julie, “Obama on Political High, but Momentum Hard to Keep,” http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/obama-political-high-momentum-hard-15224041#.Tv0PXEomzou, accessed 12-29-11, CMM)

   

  On a political high, President AND at which he won't go farther."

   

  C. Impact – extension is key to bolster the economy and avoid a double-dip recession.

  Irwin, Washington Post, 12-21-11

  (Neil, “Allowing payroll tax cuts to expire could harm economic recovery,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/allowing-payroll-tax-cuts-to-expire-could-harm-economic-recovery/2011/12/21/gIQAFxiAAP_story.html, accessed 12-30-11, CMM)

   

  If Congress does not reach agreement AND contracted without the temporary tax cuts.

   

  Economic collapse leads to global war.

  Lind, New America Foundation Economic Growth Program Policy Director, 5/11/2010

  [Michael, "Will the great recession lead to World War IV?," http://www.salon.com/news/economics/index.html?story=/opinion/feature/2010/05/11/great_recession_world_war_iv]

   

  If history is any guide, AND is all too easy to imagine.

   

  Economic decline causes war with China

  Ockham Research 8

  (an independent equity research provider, “Economic Distress and Geopolitical Risks”, November, http://seekingalpha.com/article/106562-economic-distress-and-geopolitical-risks, accessed 9-27-10, CMM)

   

  China too is threatened by the AND .S. and the world.

   

   

   

   

  Collapse in economic growth leads to massive resource exploitation

  Sanders, UC-Berkeley Peace and Conflict Studies professor, 90

  (Jerry W., “Global Ecology and World Economy: Collision Course or Sustainable Future,” Bulletin of Peace Proposals, Vol. 21 (4), p. 395-401)

   

  A substantial body of evidence exists AND that might follow in its absence.

   

   

   

   

  Collapse causes Russia lash-out

  Ockham Research 8

  (an independent equity research provider, “Economic Distress and Geopolitical Risks”, November, http://seekingalpha.com/article/106562-economic-distress-and-geopolitical-risks, accessed 9-27-10, CMM)

   

  Russia, whose economy, stock AND be a dangerous thing to behold.

   

   

   

   

  1. Public support

  Weigner, Politico, 12-28-11

  (Mackenzie, “Poll: Edge to Obama on payroll tax,” http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1211/70911.html, accessed 12-29-11, CMM)

   

  When the debate over the extension AND set to expire Feb. 29.

   

  2. Obama has the upper hand

  Smith, ABC News, 12-31-11

  (Stephanie, “Obama Maps Out ‘Warrior of Working Class’ Message,” http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/12/obama-maps-out-warrior-of-working-class-message/, accessed 1-2-12, CMM)

   

  The president will continue to claim AND which helped Obama look more presidential.”

   

  3. Both parties support extension – its only a question of funding and Obama has the advantage.

  TPM, Talking Points Memo, 12-28-11

  (Brian Beutler, “The GOP’s Year Of Living Dangerously: What Did Its Hardline Strategy Produce?,” http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/12/a-year-of-living-dangerously----a-look-back-at-the-gops-2011-strategy-and-its-consequences.php, accessed 12-30-11, CMM)

   

  The GOP strategy of pushing negotiations AND control of the House in 2013.

   

  4. Bipartisan support

  Chaddock, CSM staff writer, 12-27-11

  (Gail Russell, “‘Payroll Tax, The Sequel’: Did either side learn any lessons from Part 1?,” http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2011/1227/Payroll-Tax-The-Sequel-Did-either-side-learn-any-lessons-from-Part-1, accessed 12-30-11, CMM)

   

  “Both sides were close in AND this can be resolved rather easily.”

   

  Political capital is key to leveraging public pressure – ensures GOP concessions – December proves.

  Nakamura, Washington Post, 12-31-11

  (David, “Obama’s 2012 political strategy: Keep attacking unpopular Congress,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obamas-2012-political-strategy-keep-attacking-unpopular-congress/2011/12/30/gIQATe7WRP_print.html, accessed 1-1-12, CMM)

   

  In December, Obama and Senate AND and Senate applied extensive public pressure.

   

  White House pressure works

  SCOTT, HOST OF “FOX NEWS WATCH”, 12-24-11

  (JON, “Payroll Tax Deal,” http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/fox-news-watch/2011/12/30/payroll-tax-deal, accessed 1-2-12, CMM)

   

  OBAMA: Now, if you're AND White House media blitz paid off.

   

   

  Unique internal link – House Republicans have cooled off after backlashing over Boehner’s concession on the payroll tax cut extension – a fight in the meantime sparks a backlash Boehner can’t control which prevents the extension.

  Beutler, TPM, 12-29-11

  (Brian, Talking Point Memo, “What Boehner Faces In 2012 After Payroll Tax Debacle,” http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/12/what-boehner-faces-in-2012-after-payroll-tax-debacle.php, accessed 12-30-11, CMM)

   

  In the immediate aftermath of the AND I doubt that’s going to happen.”

   

   

  Broad application of executive order risks precious political capital with Congress

  Cooper, University of Vermont political science professor, 99

  (Phillip J., Federal News Service, October 28, 1999, “Prepared Testimony of Phillip J. Cooper Gund Professor of Liberal Arts Department of Political Science University of Vermont before the House Committee on the Judiciary Subcommittee on Commercial and Administrative Law, p. Lexis)

   

  There is certainly the danger that AND of government are to be accomplished.

   

   

  Congress supports the old regime in Yemen –no support for the plan

  Karman, Head of NED grantee Women Journalists Without Chains, 6-18-11

   [Tawakkol, “Yemen’s Unfinished Revolution” The New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/19/opinion/19karman.html?pagewanted=all, 6-18-11, access date: 09-01-11, MAY]

   

  This is because the United States AND This would be a grave mistake.

   

   

   

  Yemen assistance ignites a firestorm-massive momentum for cuts now

  Sheridan, Washington Post Correspondent, 7/27/11

  (Mary Beth, 7/27/11, “House panel to vote on bill that would slash State Department funding, impose new restrictions”, www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/checkpoint-washington/post/house-panel-to-vote-on-bill-that-would-slash-some-state-department-funding/2011/07/27/gIQA3NxocI_blog.html, accessed 9/27/11, EEG)

   

  A key House panel is to AND institutions such as the World Bank.  

   

   

   

  Spent political capital won’t come back – even if it does, it won’t affect agenda items

  Porter, Slant staff writer, 2009

  [Ethan, 9-22, "Obama’s political capital problem," http://trueslant.com/ethanporter/2009/09/22/obamas-political-capital-problem/, 9/25]

   

  But as Mark Twain pointed outAND can be perilously short-lived.

   

  Wins don’t lead to more wins – stimulus and healthcare proves 

  Conroy, Real Clear Politics White House Writer, 2010,

  (Scott, 11-16, “Needing a Big Win, Obama Turns to Taxes & START”, Real Clear Politics, PAS) http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/11/16/seeking_a_big_win_obama_turns_to_tax_cuts_and_start__107967.html 11-16-10

   

  According to Bruce Buchanan, a AND with tactics or one-upmanship."

  
  
• 
  
  

T - CMSE

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• Democracy assistance is direct assistance for democracy

  Lappin, University of Leuven (Belgium) Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies PhD candidate, 10

  [Richard, participant in democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE, and Carter Center, University of Belgrade political sciences visiting scholar, Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, Volume 4 Issue 1, “What we talk about when we talk about democracy assistance: the problem of definition in post-conflict approaches to democratization” http://www.cejiss.org/issue/2010-volume-4-issue-1/lappin, p.188-9, accessed 5-16-11, TP]

   

  In defining democracy assistance, it AND within a broader democracy  promotion paradigm.

   

   

  B. Violation – “Civil-military support element” is not a legitimate form of democracy assistance – it is a mechanism that may support the conditions necessary for democracy OR assistance, but it is not democracy assistance

   

  Civil-military support element is not democracy assistance – it includes development and humanitarian assistance – not democracy assistance

  Lightsey, CMSE Commander in Yemen, 2010,

  (Ross F., “PERSISTENT ENGAGEMENT: Civil Military Support Elements [CMSE] Operating in CENTCOM”, Special Warfare, May/June, Vol. 23, Iss. 3, PAS) http://afpakwar.com/blog/archives/6888 1-2-12

   

  Examples of CMSE key tasks:  AND DoD, NGOs and partner nations.

   

   

  C. Voting Issue – Vote negative to preserve fair and educational debate

   

  Limits – Their plan legitimizes opening the floodgates to an infinite number of non-democracy assistance affs, including all health programs, infrastructure programs and other economic development programs – i.e. anything that affects the conditions for democracy. 

   

   

  Topic education – They moot “democracy assistance” from the topic – Broadening the topic to include democracy promotion, development and other aid eliminates the educational value of the topic. “Support” opens the floodgates.

  Lappin, University of Leuven (Belgium) Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies PhD candidate, 10

  [Richard, participant in democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE, and Carter Center, University of Belgrade political sciences visiting scholar, Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, Volume 4 Issue 1, “What we talk about when we talk about democracy assistance: the problem of definition in post-conflict approaches to democratization” http://www.cejiss.org/issue/2010-volume-4-issue-1/lappin, p.183-4, accessed 5-16-11, TP]

   

  By the end of the 1990sAND practice, will ultimately be undermined.

   

  Ground – Neg ground for internal politics and relations disads are based on the U.S. delivering assistance and interfering in other countries’ political development – not providing support mechanisms to promote democracy assistance – allowing the their interpretation undermines this core ground

  CMSE in Yemen is development assistance – it exists to build relationships and promote development – even it if it is a necessary mechanism for democracy assistance to work, it’s actual implementation is not democracy assistance

  Lightsey, CMSE Commander in Yemen, 2010,

  (Ross F., “PERSISTENT ENGAGEMENT: Civil Military Support Elements [CMSE] Operating in CENTCOM”, Special Warfare, May/June, Vol. 23, Iss. 3, PAS) http://afpakwar.com/blog/archives/6888 1-2-12

   

  One of the CMSE’s most promising AND best sites for providing educational support.

   

  Civil-military support element is not democracy assistance

  Lightsey, CMSE Commander in Yemen, 2010,

  (Ross F., “PERSISTENT ENGAGEMENT: Civil Military Support Elements [CMSE] Operating in CENTCOM”, Special Warfare, May/June, Vol. 23, Iss. 3, p. 16 AFB) http://afpakwar.com/blog/archives/6888 1-2-12

   

  CMSE concept

  The CMSE concept is a non AND , educational programs and health programs.

   

  CMSE is development assistance – it was education and health assistance in Tajikistan

  Lightsey, CMSE Commander in Yemen, 2010,

  (Ross F., “PERSISTENT ENGAGEMENT: Civil Military Support Elements [CMSE] Operating in CENTCOM”, Special Warfare, May/June, Vol. 23, Iss. 3, PAS) http://afpakwar.com/blog/archives/6888 1-2-12

   

  CMSE operations in Tajikistan are a AND a medical civic-action program.

   

  More evidence – CMSE was humanitarian assistance in Pakistan – because of internal conflicts – much like conditions in Yemen

  Lightsey, CMSE Commander in Yemen, 2010,

  (Ross F., “PERSISTENT ENGAGEMENT: Civil Military Support Elements [CMSE] Operating in CENTCOM”, Special Warfare, May/June, Vol. 23, Iss. 3, PAS) http://afpakwar.com/blog/archives/6888 1-2-12

   

  In Pakistan, the CMSE efforts AND continually accompanied by local military elements.    

  
  
• 
  
  

Case Neg - Yemen CMSE

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• 1NC 

  T - CMSE Not DA

  Politics 

  Saudi DA

  CP - EU do plan, US deploy navy in Gulf of Aden and Red Sea 

  AT: Solvency

  Yemen’s public will backlash to the plan

  Terrill, Research Professor of National Security Affairs, SSI, 1-27-11

  (W. Andrew, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, “The Conflicts in Yemen and U.S. National Security”, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubid=1040, pg xi, accessed 9-7-11, CMM)

   

  Yemen is also an especially distrustful AND .-Yemeni secu- rity relations.

   

  Military training fails –takes too long and leaders give the military too much power, stifling democracy

  POMED, Project on Middle East Democracy, 9

  (12-11-09, “U.S. Military Assistance: Obstacle or Opportunity for Reform?,” http://pomed.org/us-military-assistance-obstacle-or-opportunity-for-reform/, accessed 9-14-11, CMM)

   

  Hokayem responded to another question by AND is essential to bringing real reform.

  *Steven Cook, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations

  **Emile Hokayem, a non-resident Research Fellow with the Henry L. Stimson Center’s Southwest Asia/Gulf program and Politics Editor of the Abu Dhabi-based newspaper The National.

  ***The event was moderated by Sebastian Graefe, Program Director for Foreign and Security Policy and Transatlantic Issues at the Heinrich Boell Foundation

   

  Instability inevitable –too many challenges

  Ulrichsen, research fellow and deputy director of the Kuwait Programme on Development, Governance and Globalisation in the Gulf States at the London School of Economics and Political Science, 10

  (Kristian Coates, Summer, “The Geopolitics of Insecurity in the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula,” http://www.mepc.org/journal/middle-east-policy-archives/geopolitics-insecurity-horn-africa-and-arabian-peninsula?print, accessed 9-7-11, CMM)

   

  This country of nearly 24 million AND undermines formal controls and border security.  

  Instability inevitable – No Middle Class or Public Institutions 

  Filkins, The New Yorker Journalist, 2011,

  (Dexter, “After the Uprising”, The New Yorker, 4-11, PAS) http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/04/11/110411fa_fact_filkins?currentPage=all 7-19-11

   

  As officials in both Washington and AND S. has designated a terrorist.    

   

  Alt cause – conflicts of military divisions and political infighting prevent successful agreement

  Alley, Retired Middle East Foreign Area Officer, and al-Iryani, Independent Political Analyst based in Sannaa, 12-23, 2011,

  (David and Abdulghani, "A difficult road ahead for Yemen's political transition", Foreign Policy, PAS) mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/12/23/yemens_ongoing_political_transition_and_the_remaining_challenges 1-1-12

   

  The most critical challenge during phase AND and undermining the potential for cooperation.

   

   

  Alternative causes outweigh the effects of the plan – Yemeni people need tangible results in multiple areas which the plan can’t provide

  -need water and electricity – can’t afford it without massive foreign assistance

  Alley, Retired Middle East Foreign Area Officer, and al-Iryani, Independent Political Analyst based in Sannaa, 12-23, 2011,

  (David and Abdulghani, "A difficult road ahead for Yemen's political transition", Foreign Policy, PAS) mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/12/23/yemens_ongoing_political_transition_and_the_remaining_challenges 1-1-12

   

  A successful political transition will also AND step with potentially dire fiscal consequences.

   

   

  Yemen’s instability’s inevitable- economic and demographic challenges that the plan can’t solve

  Natividad, Prospect Staff Writer, 2011,

  (Joseph, “BEYOND POLITICAL UPHEAVAL: YEMEN’S LOOMING ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROBLEMS", Prospect Journal of International Affairs at UCSD, August, PAS) prospectjournal.ucsd.edu/index.php/2011/08/beyond-political-upheaval-yemens-looming-economic-and-demographic-problems/ 9-25-11

   

  As Yemen teeters on the brink AND Arab nation within the next decade.

   

   

  Overwhelms solvency - this is comparative

  Natividad, Prospect Staff Writer, 2011,

  (Joseph, “BEYOND POLITICAL UPHEAVAL: YEMEN’S LOOMING ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROBLEMS", Prospect Journal of International Affairs at UCSD, August, PAS) prospectjournal.ucsd.edu/index.php/2011/08/beyond-political-upheaval-yemens-looming-economic-and-demographic-problems/ 9-25-11

   

  U.S. national security AND also represent issues of vital importance.

  
  
• 
  
  

Case Neg - Egypt Political Party Training

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• AT: Solvency

   

  LGBT memo establishes a set of mandates that makes their democracy assistance toxic – they’ll say no to the plan

  Zawadzki 12/11/11

  [Mariusz Zawadzki, “Obama Puts Sexual Minorities in Danger,” Gazeta Wyborcza, 11 December 2011, pg. http://watchingamerica.com/News/133940/obama-puts-sexual-minorities-in-danger/, accessed 1-4-12, AFB]

   

  The protection of gay rights has AND is not a point of pride.

   

  Aid recipients will be forced to take an official stance on gay rights. US pressure will trigger surge in violence against GLBT communities

  Nardone 12/8/11 – Senior research fellow and the Head of the United States Program @ Ifry in Paris

  [Dr. Laurence Marie Nardone, “Obama and Clinton on gay and lesbian’s rights,” The Voice of Russia, Dec 8, 2011 18:04 Moscow Time, pg. http://english.ruvr.ru/radio_broadcast/25298789/61890146.html, accessed 1-4-12, AFB]

   

   I looked at the memorandum AND they’ve entered gay rights I believe.

   

  SCAF power sustainable now – they crack down against pro-democracy forces.

  Dem Digest, 1-3-12

  [“Raids reveal Egyptian military’s ‘strategy of tension’?” http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2012/01/raids-reveal-egyptian-militarys-strategy-of-tension/, accessed 1-4-12, TAP]

   

  The Egyptian authorities’ campaign against proAND tension between Muslims and minority Copts.

   

   

  That means the plan is the kiss of death or the SCAF blocks solvency.

  Dem Digest, 1-3-12

  [“Raids reveal Egyptian military’s ‘strategy of tension’?” http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2012/01/raids-reveal-egyptian-militarys-strategy-of-tension/, accessed 1-4-12, TAP]

   

  Two US-based democracy groups AND or influence the outcome of elections.

   

  SCAF will crackdown – blocks solvency.

  Dem Digest, 1-3-12

  [“Raids reveal Egyptian military’s ‘strategy of tension’?” http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2012/01/raids-reveal-egyptian-militarys-strategy-of-tension/, accessed 1-4-12, TAP]

   

  The SCAF’s “latest actions undermine AND to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton:

   

  Egypt says no – crackdowns prove backlash against American interference

  Sabry and Landry, McClatchy News, 12-29-11

  (Mohannad and Jonathan, “Egypt crackdown escalates, with raids on 17 rights groups,” 12-29-11, http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/12/29/v-fullstory/2566216/egypt-crackdown-escalates-with.html, accessed 12-29-11) PM

   

  CAIRO -- Egyptian authorities on Thursday AND National Democratic Institute President Kenneth Wollack.

   

  AT: MB

  Brotherhood won’t be radical – domestic issues will outweigh Iraq proves

  Duss, American Progress Policy Analyst and Middle East Progress Director, 2011,

  (Matthew, "Recognizing Reality in the Middle East", Center for American Progress, 7-1, PAS) www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/07/middle_east_reality.html 8-21-11

   

  Secretary Clinton’s comments recognize that Islamist AND appear to be among those problems.

   

  Governance will moderate inevitably.

  Naiman, Just Foreign Policy policy director, 2-2-11

  [Roberty, Public Citizen’s Global Trade Watch former analyst, Center for Economic and Policy Research former analyst, “Democracy in Egypt: The U.S. and Israel Can Adapt and They Will” http://www.commondreams.org/view/2011/02/02-4, accessed 10-23-11, TAP]

   

  Opposing policies of the U.AND of U.S. policy.

   

  Islamist control irrelevant – president has the power

  Democracy Digest, 2011,

  ("Egypt’s democrats more concerned about Salafists than Brotherhood?", 8-8, PAS) www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/08/egypts-democrats-more-concerned-about-salafists-than-brotherhood/

  8-30-11

   

  But these moderate Islamists are vastly AND sense of heading into the unknown.”

   

   

   

   

  Muslim Brotherhood has thinly masked its violent intentions – analysts and officials would determine them ineligible for the plan

  Lt. Col. Smith, 11

  [Lt. Col. Wm. Thomas Smith, Jr., 6-14-11, “THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD: Brief prepared for the Joint Services Detachment” http://victoryinstitute.net/ctat/?page_id=348 accessed 10-2-11, AFB]

   

  TRUE COLORS Though the Brotherhood likes AND the use of violence against civilians.”

   

   

  AT: IRF

   

  The plan can’t solve US credibility – Palestine outweighs

  Brenner, University of Pittsburgh International Affairs Professor and Center for Transatlantic Relations Senior Fellow, 9-29, 2011,

  (Michael, "America in the Middle East: Dim the Lights', Huffington Post, PAS) www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-brenner/obama-israel-policy_b_986879.html?ir=Politics 9-29-11

   

  The United States' strategic position in AND -- and beyond -- severely compromised.

   

  IRF fails

  Farr and Saunders, 2009

  [Thomas and William, p.16, http://www.harvard-jlpp.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/FarrFinal.pdf, “THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION AND AMERICA’S INTERNATIONAL RELIGIOUS FREEDOM POLICY” accessed 11-12-11, TAP]

   

  Despite the failure of the CPC AND in the forward strategy of freedom.

   

  Structure enables ignoring religious freedom inevitable – no spillover from the plan.

  Farr, Witherspoon Institute, 9-23-11

  [Thomas, “Preventing Another Attack: International Religious Freedom” http://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2011/09/4008, accessed 11-12-11, TAP]

   

  Given the evidence that religious freedom AND drive U.S. policy.

   

   

  AT: FDI Add On

   

  Egypt economy will stabilize and grow in status quo

  MSN News, 2011,

  ("IMF: Egypt's economy will improve in 5 years", 6-20, PAS) arabia.msn.com/News/economy/youm7/2011/June/6808485.aspx 10-1-11

   

  Egypt’s economy will recover over the AND percent growth in 2014 and 2015.

   

  The public deters investment

  Alterman, Director of CSIS Middle East Program, 2011

  [Jon, “Egypt- A Troubling Mix,” CSIS Middle East Notes and Comments, csis.org/files/publication/0711_MENC.pdf, 7-12-11, access date: 11-14-11, MAY]

   

  Egypt cannot be successful without a AND will be vital for Egypt’s future.

   

   

  AT: Space Add On

   

  Human existence is necessary, but not sufficient, for space colonization – other factors key, and they are thousands of years away from feasibility

  Tonn, University of Tennessee political science professor, 7

  (Bruce E., 11-7, Futures, “Futures sustainability”, SECTION: Pg. 1097 Vol. 39 No. 9 ISSN: 0016-3287, Lexis)

   

  3.3 Threats to transcending AND renewable resources needed to transcend oblivion.

   

  AT: Suez Add On

   

  Economic impact of the crisis is overblown

  Schuman, TIME correspondent, 2-2-11

  (Michael, “Does the turmoil in Egypt threaten the global recovery?,” http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/02/02/does-the-turmoil-in-egypt-threaten-the-global-recovery/, accessed 2-4-11, CMM)

   

  However, my personal view on AND fall-out should be limited.

   

   

  Suez canal not key to oil supply

  Lodge, CNBC.com writer, 2-3-11

  (Michelle, “Egyptian Unrest Could Cause Oil to Rise: IEA's Tanaka,” http://www.cnbc.com/id/41407301, accessed 2-4-11, CMM)

   

  According to an IEA briefing paper AND oil supply goes through the canal.

   

  
  
• 
  
  

DA - AIPAC

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• A. Uniqueness – Obama will use executive discretion to weaken blow of Iranian sanctions.

  Kampeas, JTA, 12-18-11

  (Ron, Jewish Telegraphic Agency, “Obama administration gets some of the leeway it sought in new Iran sanctions,” http://www.jta.org/news/article/2011/12/18/3090782/administration-gets-some-of-the-leeway-it-sought-in-new-iran-sanctions, accessed 12-22-11, CMM)

   

  New sanctions targeting Iran’s financial sector AND ,” Kirk said of the latter.

   

  B. Link – AIPAC backlashes to the plan – they believe transitions create a power vacuum for radical groups to gain power.

  Sidman, Israel National News, 5-23-11

  (Fern, “AIPAC: Kohnr Points to Danger of ‘Arab Spring,” http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/144434#.Tm6_Yk-gErg, accessed 9-12-11, CMM)

   

  During the morning session of day AND shun peace with the Jewish state."

   

  US-Israel alliance resiliency forces Obama to compensate for the plan – means he’ll enforce the sanction.

  Tobin, Senior Online Editor of Commentary magazine, 12-6-11

  (Jonathan, “Has Obama Destroyed the Alliance?,” http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/12/06/obama-us-israel-alliance/, accessed 12-21-11, CMM)

   

  It’s been a difficult week for AND something they can get away with.

   

   

  C. Impact – tighter sanctions foreclose the possibility of negotiation with Iran and make conflict inevitable, cause oil price spikes, and collapse Chinese relations.

  Karon, senior editor at TIME, 12-11-11

  (Tony, “Tighter Sanctions On Iran: An Alternative to War — or a Road to War?,” http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2011/12/11/tighter-sanctions-on-iran-an-alternative-to-war-or-a-road-to-war/, accessed 12-21-11, CMM)

   

  But slowing down the momentum towards AND politics are pushing them towards confrontation.

   

  Middle East war escalates.
   RUSSELL, Department of National Security Affairs senior lecturer at NPS, 9

  [James A., , focused on Middle East security affairs, terrorism, and national security strategy. “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Nuclear War and Escalation in the Middle East” Spring http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=1&sqi=2&ved=0CBMQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nps.edu%2FAcademics%2Fcenters%2FCCC%2Ffaculty%2Fbiolinks%2Frussell%2FPP26_Russell_2009.pdf&rct=j&q=Strategic%20Stability%20Reconsidered%3A%20Prospects%20for%20Nuclear%20War%20and%20Escalation%20in%20the%20Middle%20East%22&ei=y_dbTcmfD4K0lQeY7cTkCQ&usg=AFQjCNGBgAt5-o6WwVPg7b503iUYltj2nw&sig2=9rGfIq5oVZNvgR8pn8vhvA, page 41, accessed 2-16-11, CMM]
  
  

  Strategic stability in the region is AND substantial risk for the entire world.

  A new regime in Egypt frightens Israel – they prefer military’s current control

  Bhadrakumar, former ambassador and career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service, 7-29-11

  (M K, Asia Times, “Israel inherits the Arab Spring,” http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MG29Ak02.html, accessed 8-3-11, CMM)

   

  This is a path-breaking AND outcome of regime change in Syria.

   

   

  Israel fear successful elections in Egypt – risks extremists coming to power

  Zacharia, Washington Post Staff Writer, 2011,

  (Janine, "Israel wary of transition in Egypt, concerned about regional stability", Washington Post, 2-2, PAS) www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/01/AR2011020106482.html 7-26-11

   

  It's an understandable anxiety. After AND the fall of the Soviet Union.  

  
  
• 
  
  

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  
• 
  
• 
  
  

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  
• 
  
•