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A. Interpretation – Assistance is about building infrastructure and civil society, not negotiations

National Research Council Committee on Evaluation of USAID Democracy Assistance, 8

[Jack A. Goldstone et al, “Improving Democracy Assistance: Building Knowledge Through Evaluations and Research”, , p. 22-23, accessed 5-27-11]

The four broad goals are supported … the process of democratization.

B. Violation – the plan is diplomacy and not democracy assistance

C. Standards

1. Limits – allowing diplomacy destroys limits – the US can use diplomacy in any way. Allows for affs that diplomatically support X member of a particular party.

2. Ground – diplomacy isn’t democracy assistance – destroying links to all disads.

D. Topicality is a voting issue, or the aff will win every debate with a new unpredictable aff. Only competing interpretations avoids judge intervention.

EU CP
Text: The European Union should substantially increase funding for democratic institution building in Tunisia.


Counterplan solves – has the capacity and expertise  
Diamond, Journal of Democracy Founding Coeditor, 2011,
(Larry, "Tunisia’s uncertain transition", Democracy Digest, 1-19, PAS) www.demdigest.net/2011/01/tunisia’s-uncertain-transition/ 8-28-11

In the coming weeks and months, … tapped to activate assistance quickly.


US fails – perceived as negative – EU tailored approaches avoid this
Abboud, Former International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance Project Coordinator, 2010,
(Noufal,  "Regenerating the State in the Arab World: The Role of the European Union in Democracy Building", International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, Pg. 14-15, PAS) www.idea.int/resources/analysis/upload/Abboud_low_1.pdf 8-24-11

Finally, the Arab world desperately … Arab and Islamic traditions of tolerance,   diversity and justice.

UAE FDI Investment Tradeoff DA 1NC

The UAE’s economy is up – MENA political instability has diverted FDI to the UAE
Nield, MEED correspondent, 6-19-11
(Richard, MEED is a 54-year-old business intelligence tool for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), providing analysis and commentary on Middle Eastern markets, companies, people and data on the regional projects market, “Middle East Economic Review : UAE set to benefit from stability,” http://www.ameinfo.com/268494.html, accessed 6-21-11, CMM) 

As political unrest sweeps the region, the … see an increase in spending in the non-oil sector."

FDI is key to UAE’s housing sector
The Economic Times, 8
(5-27-08, “Foreign investment spurs Dubai real estate growth,” http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2008-05-27/news/27708062_1_foreign-investment-real-estate-sector-uae, accessed 7-10-11, CMM)

The real estate sector in Dubai is being … lucrative opportunities in the UAE. 

UAE real estate decline collapses the US economy
Rosales, AgentGenius Editor-in-Chief, 9
(Lani, named one of Real Estate’s 100 Most Influencial, as well as 12 Most Influencial Women in Real Estate, 11-30-09, “Dubai’s Economic Meltdown May Extend to U.S. Shores,” http://agentgenius.com/real-estate-news-events/dubais-economic-meltdown-extend-to-u-s-shores/, accessed 7-9-11, CMM)

Anyone following the world market … connected, especially in real estate. 

Economic collapse leads to global war.
Lind, New America Foundation Economic Growth Program Policy Director, 5/11/2010
[Michael, "Will the great recession lead to World War IV?," http://www.salon.com/news/economics/index.html?story=/opinion/feature/2010/05/11/great_recession_world_war_iv]

If history is any guide, an era of global economic … Oceania in 1984 is all too easy to imagine.

UAE DA 2NC

Turns case – economic downturn hurts movements.
Amery, Colorado School of Mines arts and international studies professor, 2011
[Hussein, The Arab Geographer, Vol 14 num 2 summer, “State Legitimacy from Below: ‘The Land Speaks Arabic’” p.140, TAP]

Subterranean social movements in … maturity, producing widespread revolutions. 

Decline causes withdrawal from the world
Friedberg and Schoenfeld – 8 (Aaron, professor of politics and international relations at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School, and Gabriel, visiting scholar at the Witherspoon Institute, “The Dangers of a Diminished America”, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122455074012352571.html, accessed 9-24-10, CMM)

With the global financial system in … grave as the one we now face.  

The economy is key to hegemony.  
Mead, Council on Foreign Relations Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow in U.S. foreign policy, 2004
[Walter Russell, “America's sticky power,” March-April Foreign Policy, i141 p46(8), info trac JCP]

U.S. military force and cultural appeal … the United States and China.

The UAE is key to US power projection in the Middle East
Francona, former NBC Middle East military analyst and retired intelligence officer, 6
(Rick, 2-24-06, “Dubai – Strategic Importance of the UAE,” http://francona.blogspot.com/2006/02/dubai-strategic-importance-of-uae.html, accessed 6-21-11, CMM)

The UAE occupies a strategic … no security problems.

Bahrain Links

US support for Bahraini reforms boosts their investment reputation
Hiltermann, Deputy Program Director for Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group, 9-7-11
(Joost R, “Pushing for Reform in Bahrain,” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/ARTICLES/68246/joost-r-hiltermann/pushing-for-reform-in-bahrain?page=show, accessed 9-8-11, CMM)

How Washington should now proceed is … government bond rating following the crackdown.)

Lack of reconciliation in Bahrain is causing investors to move to The Emirates.
Ulrichsen, research fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science, 9-6-11
(Kristian Coates, “Dark clouds over Bahrain,” http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/06/dark_clouds_over_bahrain, accessed 9-7-11, CMM)

The continuing tensions and low-level … and based on a fragile and transient veneer of calm.

AT: Instab Spillsover

Middle East conflict won’t spillover or escalate
Cook and Takeyh, CFR Middle Eastern Studies senior fellow, 6-28-07
[Ray, and Steven A., Douglas Dillon fellow, "Why the Iraq war won't engulf the Mideast," http://www.cfr.org/publication/13702/] 

Finally, there is no precedent for Arab … enveloping the entire Middle East. 

Economic decline in UAE collapses the world economy
Dalje.com, 9
(Croatian news site, 11-27-09, “Dubai is facing financial collapse?,” http://dalje.com/en-economy/dubai-is-facing-financial-collapse/283771, accessed 7-5-11, CMM)

Dubai has $ 80 billion in … for the region and wider world economy. 

Rebound from the recession is not guaranteed – decline in the UAE spills over
Schuman, TIME Business, 9
(Michael, “The Lesson of Dubai: The Crisis Is Not Over,” http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1943392,00.html, accessed 7-9-11, CMM)

As we reach the end of a … they only exploded after the crisis.

1NC
Theoretical Framework (Topicality)
Substantive Framework (Political Engagement Good/Policy Education Good/Switch Side Debate Good/Spectator Mentality DA)
Case

Theoretical Framework
First off is topicality –
Contention One: The Violation
A. Interpretation: The judge, as the United States federal government, should decide the round based on the desirability of the implementation of a topical plan.  To be topical they must affirm the resolution.
B. Violation: The aff calls on the judge to vote as a citizen, which side-steps the issue of USFG implementation. The aff also does not increase democracy assistance for any of the topic countries

Contention Two: Fairness
A. The Link- Policy debate centered on the merit of the resolution is key to fair debate- it’s a voting issue

1. Predictability- the resolution sets the topic for discussion- allowing the aff to choose their own ground outside the resolution makes it impossible for the negative to be prepared- there are an infinite amount of non-policy advocacies unrelated to the topic that are impossible to predict- this leaves the negative unprepared to debate
   2. Aff conditionality- only a resolutionally-based plan prevents shifting advocacies- their framework allows aff vagueness, allowing the aff to become a moving target which destroys discussion, advocacy skills and fair ground
   B. Informed decision-making- unpredictable or unfair debates preclude an informed discussion that rigorously tests the efficacy of their approach- this collapses civic deliberation because it prevents informed clash. This outweighs all other impacts - fairness is a prerequisite for voting for one team’s arguments or advocacy over the other’s - because we can’t test the truth-value of an argument or advocacy without rigorously testing it.
   C. Agreed question through the resolution is a prerequisite for gains from argumentation- debate is worthless without the predictability that is necessary to generate a starting point for discussion
   Shively, former Texas A&M political science assistant professor, 2000
   [Ruth, Political Theory and Partisan Politics, edited by Portis, Gundersen, and Shively, “Political Theory and the Postmodern Politics of Ambiguity,” 181-2]

The requirements given thus far are … rests on some basic agreement or harmony.

D.  Fairness is key to education- agreed fundamental rules are essential to prevent political debates from devolving into irresolvable ideological disputes- their framework guarantees resistance and hostility
Portis, Gunderson and Shively, Texas A&M political science professors, 2000
[Edward Bryan, Adolf G., and Ruth Lessl, Political Theory and Partisan Politics, 2-3]

By extension, partisan divisions based … and alternative positions evaluated. 

Subpoint A is political engagement
Political engagement is necessary for the marriage of justice and power- the alternative is to cede intellectual platforms to totalitarianism- makes political instability and violence inevitable
Lutz, University of Houston political science professor, 2000
[Donald S., Political Theory and Partisan Politics, edited by Portis, Gundersen, and Shively, “Political Theory and Constitutional Construction,” 43-44]

To the extent politicians do listen to … yet sterile stance of rhetorical moral superiority.

Policy strategies are necessary to solve oppression- voting aff is an empty symbol
Grossberg, University of Illinois (Urbana-Champaign) communications research, speech and critical theory professor, 1992
[Lawrence, we gotta get out of this place; popular conservatism and postmodern culture, 390-391]

But this would mean that the Left could … the moral responsibility) to fight them.

State action to end structures that perpetuate injustice are critical to end white supremacy – individual action and dialogue is insufficient
Jensen, Texas University Journalism Professor, Nowar Collective Founder, 2005
[Robert, The Heart of Whiteness, p.78-87]

I'm all for diversity and its institutional …certainly has been true in my life. 

Subpoint B is Policy Education Good
Policy-deliberation is crucial to restoring restore democratic practices and reshape power relations- debate creates an epistemological bridge between non-experts and experts
Fisher, Rutgers University political science professor, 2000
[Frank, Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy member, Citizens, Experts, and the Environment, x-xii]

Despite the enthusiasm for promoting …expert and citizen knowledge(s). 

Turns the K- policy-deliberation is essential to rescue democracy from technocratic elitist politics
Fisher, Rutgers University political science professor, 2000
[Frank, Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy member, Citizens, Experts, and the Environment, 1-2]

Can democracy thrive in a complex technological … to more abstract empirical methods.

Using debate as a training ground for advocacy research solves their impacts- its crucial to more democratic, less elitist, empowering politics
Fisher, Rutgers University political science professor, 2000
[Frank, Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy member, Citizens, Experts, and the Environment, 37-38]

Politicizing Expertise
From Advocacy to Participation

The first step toward a more … expert-client relationship.

Subpoint C – switch side debate good
Switch-side debate good- challenges “us-them” dichotomies and dismantles absolutism
English et al, Schenley Park Debate Authors Working Group scholar, 6-7
[Eric, Stephen Llano, Gordon R. Mitchell, Catherine E. Morrison, John Rief & Carly Woods. Univ. of Pittsburgh Communication Dept. “Debate as a Weapon of Mass Destruction.” Routledge. Communication and Critical/Cultural Studies Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 221-225 http://www.pitt.edu/~gordonm/JPubs/EnglishDAWG.pdf accessed 10-16-8]

This episode is a representative anecdote … polar categories find debate so threatening. 

Switch side debate good – opposition leads to knowledge and progression
Deborah Tannen, Ph.D., Georgetown University professor of linguistics and University Professor, 1998, “The Argument Culture,” p. 272

All of this is not to imply that scholars should … inquiry, the results can be far less rewarding.

Debate Tournaments Function To Provide An Opportunity To Defend Policies Against Multiple Viewpoints – Without this ability, the purpose of the tournament and season are undermined
Ulrich, former DOF at Vanderbilt, 1986 (Walter, AN INTRODUCTION TO DEBATE, p. 11, published by the National Federation of State High School Associations)

The debate tournament offers an excellent … an incentive for teams to refine their positions.

Subpoint D is Spectator Mentality
Engaging in theoretical philosophy only meant to persuade those in the room without any call to action outside of it creates a spectator mentality – it undermines all action to end human misery and change political structures
David E. McClean, New School University Professor, and Society for the Study of Africana Philosophy President, 2001, “The Cultural Left and the Limits of Social Hope,” http://www.american-philosophy.org/archives/past_conference_programs/pc2001/Discussion%20papers/david_mcclean.htm

Yet for some reason, at least partially explicated in … for the so-called "managerial class."

Second, this distracts us from more important work for policy pragmatism – the aff’s inaccessible abstract musings will not create change and allow us to think all of our troubles away
Johnston, Emory University, 2004
[Adrian, "The Cynic's Fetish: Slavoj Zizek and the Dynamics of Belief," http://www.scribd.com/doc/20244451/Johnston-a-The-Cynic-s-Fetish-Slavoj-Zizek-and-the-Dynamics-of-Belief, 1/1]

However, the absence of this type of Lacan-underwritten … affairs he describes so well. 

<p><br class="lineBreak"><br class="lineBreak"><br class="lineBreak"><br class="lineBreak"><br class="lineBreak"><br class="lineBreak">A. Circumventing the SCAF causes a backlash</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;">Fadel &amp; Londono, Washington Post, 11</span></p><p class="MsoNormal">[Leila &amp; Ernesto, 7-30-11, Washington Post, “Military stokes xenophobia in Egypt”,</p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal">accessed 10-2-11, AFB]</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="card">CAIRO — Facing mounting challenges and …<span class="underline">&nbsp;risk of being treated as suspect</span>.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="tag">B. Collapse in relations triggers Suez shutdown</p><p class="tag">Martini, RAND Middle East research project associate &amp; Taylor, RAND political scientist, 11</p><p class="MsoNormal">[Jeffrey &amp; Julie E., 8-25-11, Foreign Affairs, “Commanding Democracy in Egypt: The Military's Attempt to Manage the Future”, , accessed 10-2-11, AFB]</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="card">Yet the United States' capacity … can do little to change.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="tag">C. Suez access key to prevent skyrocketing oil prices</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;">Lompoc Record, 11</span></p><p class="MsoNormal">(2-2-11, “Changing world and the US”, , accessed 10-23-11, AFB]</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="card">On the other hand, <span class="underline">Obama … steady supply of&nbsp;</span><span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;">oil</span>.</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="tag">D. High oil prices increase food prices – causes global starvation</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;">Robertson, Petroleum Economist, 11</span></p><p class="MsoNormal">[Helen, April, Petroleum Economist, “Poor feel the pain as crude surges”, Lexis]</p><p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p><p class="card">And <span class="underline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;">as the price of&nbsp;</span><span class="underline">crude&nbsp;</span><span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;">oil&nbsp;</span>… offering benefits, including food subsidies.</p>

Case
1. Afro-centric research models fail – it over-simplifies the world into gross generalizations – there is no coherent  and universal “African” reading of history
Adeleke, Montana University History Professor, 1998
[Tunde, “Black Americans and Africa: A Critique of the Pan-African and Identity Paradigms,” The International Journal of African Historical Studies, Vol. 31, No. 3, JSTOR]

Pan-Africanism is central to the Afrocentric … defended in  Afrocentric historiography.


2. This empirically results in ineffective strategies to liberate the oppressed – their methodology will be co-opted and result in support for imperial policies
Adeleke, Montana University History Professor, 1998
[Tunde, “Black Americans and Africa: A Critique of the Pan-African and Identity Paradigms,” The International Journal of African Historical Studies, Vol. 31, No. 3, JSTOR]

By the second half of the nineteenth century, black … sovereignty and territorial integrity.


3. Their authors have an inaccurate view of history – Afro-centric scholarship will re-inscribe hegemonic values – African nationalists complicity and support for the slave-trade proves
Adeleke, Montana University History Professor, 1998
[Tunde, “Black Americans and Africa: A Critique of the Pan-African and Identity Paradigms,” The International Journal of African Historical Studies, Vol. 31, No. 3, JSTOR]

Late nineteenth-century black American nationalism … Turner remained culpable nonetheless.


Democracy assistance is not imperialist – US aid for authoritarian regimes is
Askari, Asia Times, ‘11
(Hossein, “Arab Spring’s Cruel Truth,” 8-27-11, , accessed 9-12-11) PM

Although the autocratic rule and the subpar economic  … same for themselves and their foreign supporters.

Jobs Bill Politics Comprehensive jobs legislations will pass – Obama is rallying momentum and using the bully pulpit. Sands-Sadowitz, The Hill, 9-16-11 [Geneva, “Carter: Obama jobs bill strategy will succeed” , accessed 9-16-11, TAP] Former President Carter said he thinks … will be negative political consequences. Democracy assistance is unpopular – republicans will backlash against Obama for spending. Arnold, VOA News, 8-8-11 (David, “US Debt Struggle Puts Middle East Aid Commitments in Question,” , accessed 8-8-11, CMM) When lawmakers in the U.S. Congress began … Middle East issue when the House bill was passed. Obama must use his political muscle in order to ensure a successful jobs bill. Cohen, Non-Profit Quarterly, 9-13-11 [Rick, “Obama’s Jobs Bill: Ready to Take a Chance Again?” , accessed 9-15-11, TAP] What’s clearer is the fact that without strong … 2012 re-election campaign—will fail as well. A double dip recession is coming and would be disastrous for the economy – the jobs bill fills in for consumer spending, staving it off. Zanki, The Express Times, 9-15-11 [Tom, “Economist Kamran Afshar: Double-dip recession would be 'disastrous'” , accessed 9-16-11, TAP] Afshar is not embracing the … is the time to do it." Economic collapse leads to global war. Lind, New America Foundation Economic Growth Program Policy Director, 5/11/2010 [Michael, "Will the great recession lead to World War IV?," ] If history is any guide, an era of global … and Oceania in 1984 is all too easy to imagine. Jobs Politics – green jobs impact ~\~\The jobs bill is necessary to stay ahead in the clean energy race. Geman, The Hill, 9-12-11 [Ben, “Chu: Obama jobs plan supports green energy” http:~~/~~/thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/677-e2-wire/180985-chu-obama-jobs-plan-supports-green-energy, accessed 9-14-11, TAP] ~\~\President Obama isn’t trying to sell … efficiency upgrades, as we noted here. ~\~\~\~\International climate change action is inevitable but will fail – only a green jobs program in the US overcomes international signal of hypocrisy – that solves warming. Speckhard, US Ambassador to Greece, 2009 [Daniel, “President Obama’s Energy Policy: Building a “Green” Economy to Confront Climate Change” http:~~/~~/athens.usembassy.gov/iene_speech.html, accessed 9-16-11, TAP] ~\~\On the international front, the U.S. … emissions and adapt to climate change. ~\~\Extinction Tickell 8 (Oliver, Climate Researcher. The Gaurdian, 11 Aug. http:~~/~~/www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange) We need to get prepared for four … a similar hothouse Earth. ~\~\

Saudi Arabia Overstretch DA Unique Internal Link – Saudi Arabia’s budget is currently sustainable – new debt causes massive internal instability. Gay, an employee of a small D.C. foreign policy think tank and a graduate student studying international relations at Syracuse University, 7-11-11 (John Allen, “Saudi Arabia: The Cost of Empire,” , accessed 9-10-11, CMM)

Saudi Arabia’s state expenditures for … to the Saudi political system.

Fears of US democracy promotion spilling over cause the Saudis to freak out and massively increase government spending – there’s no risk of reform Jones, assistant professor of Middle East history at Rutgers University, 3-23-11 (Toby, Project on Middle East Political Science, “High Anxiety,” , pages5-6, accessed 9-10-11, CMM)

Saudi Arabia’s ruling elders are anxious . Recent … seen as an obstacle later on .

That collapses the global economy David, prof of poli sci at Johns Hopkins, 99 (Steven R, Jan/Feb, Foreign Affairs, “Saving America from the Coming Civil Wars,” lexis, accessed 5-9-11, CMM)

In a Saudi civil war, the oil fields … imaginable to American interests.

Economic collapse leads to global war. Lind, New America Foundation Economic Growth Program Policy Director, 5/11/2010 [Michael, "Will the great recession lead to World War IV?," ] If history is any guide, an era of global …too easy to imagine.

Block Cards

DA Turns Case

Saudi Arabian intervention guts solvency.
Nasr, Bloomberg, 5-23-11
[Vali, “Will the Saudis Kill the Arab Spring?” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-23/will-the-saudis-kill-the-arab-spring-.html, accessed 6-9-11, TAP]

Encouraging Dialog Washington … qualify on neither count.

Turns terrorism-

The Saudis will play up sectarian conflicts if they feel threatened by the revolutions in the region – that boosts AQAP’s influence
Gause, teaches political science at the University of Vermont, 8-9-11
(F Gregory III, Project on Middle East Political Science, “Is Saudi Arabia really counter-revolutionary?,” http://www.pomeps.org/2011/08/10/arab-uprisings-the-saudi-counter-revolution/, pgs7-8, accessed 9-10-11, CMM)

The immediate reaction to the Saudi … like al Qaeda and its sympathizers .

Link EXT

Saudi’s perceive US democracy assistance as a threat – they overspend to compensate
Nasr, Bloomberg, 5-23-11
[Vali, “Will the Saudis Kill the Arab Spring?” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-23/will-the-saudis-kill-the-arab-spring-.html, accessed 6-9-11, TAP]

It’s no surprise that the tectonic …. policy as a direct threat to them.

The plan threatens Saudi interests – it forces them to act on their own
Boucek, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Middle East associate, 6-8-11
[Christopher, Diane Rehm, Guests included: Robin Wright, US Institute of Peace and the Woodrow Wilson International Center policy analyst, Ali al-Ahmed, Gulf Institute director, Aaron David Miller, Woodrow Wilson International Center public policy scholar, NPR, “The U.S., Saudi Arabia, and the Arab Spring” http://thedianerehmshow.org/shows/2011-06-08/us-saudi-arabia-and-arab-spring, accessed 6-10-11, TAP]

BOUCEK10:11:54 Well, I think there's…out and do its own thing.

AT: Oil Shocks Impact Defense
There are no checks without the Saudis
Hulbert, lead columnist at the European Energy Review, 9-2-11
(Matthew, EurActiv, “Guns of August: Political risk blowback,” http://www.euractiv.com/energy/guns-august-political-risk-blowback-analysis-507257, accessed 9-15-11, CMM)

And if we are brutally honest, consumers ... drastic action was best to take.

High oil prices collapse economic growth
Casey Research Energy Team, 8-31-11
(Casey Research, a provider of subscription financial analysis about specific market verticals focused on natural resources/metals/mining, energy, commodities, and technology, “Falling Oil Prices: A Worrying Trend That May Be a Saving Grace,” http://howestreet.com/2011/08/falling-oil-prices-good-sign/, accessed 9-15-11, CMM)

Oil prices play a major ... choke out economic growth.

Uniqueness EXT
The Saudi budget is sustainable with current oil prices – more spending cause massive debt
Hargreaves, CNN Money, 10-27-11
(Steve, “Saudi oil production cut looms,” http://money.cnn.com/2011/10/27/markets/saudi_oil_cut/?source=cnn_bin, accessed 10-27-11, CMM)

The country, which had ramped up ... down from over $125 a barrel in April.

Relations Impact

New debt causes massive internal instability and forces them to raise oil prices, collapsing relations with the US.
Gay, an employee of a small D.C. foreign policy think tank and a graduate student studying international relations at Syracuse University, 7-11-11
(John Allen, “Saudi Arabia: The Cost of Empire,” http://johnallengay.wordpress.com/2011/07/11/saudi-arabia-the-cost-of-empire/, accessed 9-10-11, CMM)

Saudi Arabia’s state expenditures for this…them to avoid a return to the shade.

US-Saudi relations are key to Middle East stability.
Brzezinski, CSIS, 2009
[Zbigniew, PHD, Former national security advisor to President Carter, “U.S.-Saudi Relations in a World Without Equilibrium” http://www.susris.com/articles/2009/ioi/090508-ussa-brzezinski.html, accessed 7-30-11, TAP]

I think we need to work together and …. for peace in the Middle East.

Instability escalates to global nuclear war  
RUSSELL, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, 9
[James A., , focused on Middle East security affairs, terrorism, and national security strategy. “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Nuclear War and Escalation in the Middle East” Spring http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=1&sqi=2&ved=0CBMQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nps.edu%2FAcademics%2Fcenters%2FCCC%2Ffaculty%2Fbiolinks%2Frussell%2FPP26_Russell_2009.pdf&rct=j&q=Strategic%20Stability%20Reconsidered%3A%20Prospects%20for%20Nuclear%20War%20and%20Escalation%20in%20the%20Middle%20East%22&ei=y_dbTcmfD4K0lQeY7cTkCQ&usg=AFQjCNGBgAt5-o6WwVPg7b503iUYltj2nw&sig2=9rGfIq5oVZNvgR8pn8vhvA, page 41, accessed 2-16-11, CMM]

Strategic stability in the region is thus … of the region, with substantial risk for the entire world.

Relation Internal Link EXTs

No internal link – disagreements over the Arab Spring don’t threaten the relationship
Gause, teaches political science at the University of Vermont, 8-9-11
(F Gregory III, Project on Middle East Political Science, “Is Saudi Arabia really counter-revolutionary?,” http://www.pomeps.org/2011/08/10/arab-uprisings-the-saudi-counter-revolution/, pgs8-9, accessed 9-10-11, CMM)

While the sectarian issue should be …let Prince Metternich rest in peace .

The Arab Spring has boosted relations
LAT, LA Times, 2-25-11
(“Saudi Arabia's move to keep oil flowing brings crude prices down,” http://articles.latimes.com/2011/feb/25/business/la-fi-oil-saudis-20110225, accessed 9-15-11, CMM)

In the meantime, the Middle East … they can rely on."


Oil price disagreements risk crises of relations
GAUSE, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Vermont, 2K
(F. GREGORY, III, May/June, Foreign Affairs, “Saudi Arabia over a barrel,” proquest, accessed 9-15-11, CMM)

Neither the United States nor Saudi … reminiscent of the 1970s.

Oil market control kills relations – its magnified by the weak economy
GAUSE, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Vermont, 2K
(F. GREGORY, III, May/June, Foreign Affairs, “Saudi Arabia over a barrel,” proquest, accessed 9-15-11, CMM)

The alternative is not very appealing-… oil markets to increase prices.

Financial Incentives CP Text: The United States Federal Government should offer to substantially increase foreign aid to Bahrain on the condition that the government initiates a dialogue with the opposition using the agenda presented by the Crown Prince and accepted by Al-Wifaq and provide support for human rights protection for the opposition. Conditioned financial incentives are key to democratic change in MENA – Egypt empirically proves. Cook, Next Generation Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, 5 (Steven A, Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, March/April, “The Right Way to Promote Arab Reform,” , accessed 9-5-11, CMM) The reason that the promotion of civil … bureaucratic and legislative interest.

~~/~~/ ~\~\~\~\~~/~~/~~/~~/ ~\~\~\~\~~/~~/~(% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)UNIQUENESS – the US is committed to military presence in Asia – Biden trip proves ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)Miles~(% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %), American Forces Press Service, 8-29-~(% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)11 ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) (Donna, Defence Professionals, “Biden: U.S. Presence Vital to Asian Stability, Prosperity,” http:~~/~~/www.defpro.com/news/details/27198/?SID=22da046a72e429c1d83e586a81fe8988, accessed 8-29-11, CMM) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="card" %) ~(% class="underline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)The U~(%%)nited ~(% class="underline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)S~(%%)tates ~(% class="underline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)has been a ~(% class="underline" %)…~(%%) the region as president. ~\~\ ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)LINK – US resources and willingness to intervene around the world are finite – increasing interventions in MENA trade off with East Asia – that kills regional stability. ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)Colby~(% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %), research analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses, 8-10-~(% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)11 ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) (Elbridge, consultant to a number of government and military components, served as policy advisor to the Secretary of Defense’s Representative to the New START talks, an expert advisor to the Congressional Strategic Posture Commission, and in a number of other government positions, “Why US Needs its Liberal Empire,” http:~~/~~/the-diplomat.com/2011/08/10/why-us-needs-its-liberal-empire/, accessed 8-24-11, CMM) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %) ~(% class="card" %) ~(% class="underline" %)The centre of international gravity is …~(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %) intervene is too important to be so wasted. ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Asian instability escalates to global nuclear war collapsing the economy, the nuclear taboo, and the NPT ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)Landay~(% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %), National Security and Intelligence Correspondent, ~(% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)2K ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) (Jonathan S., “Top administration officials warn stakes for U.S. are high in Asian conflicts”, 3-10, Knight Ridder/Tribune News) Accessed on LexisNexis 12-29-09 ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="underline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~~"Times New Roman~~";" %)Few if any experts think China and …~(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~~"Times New Roman~~";" %) year, according to the Commerce Department.

Positive Rights The plan extends positive rights, stripping people of their agency – it’s no different from fascism. Machan, Auburn University Philosophy professor, 3 (Tibor R, Research Fellow at Hoover Institution Stanford University, Passion for Liberty, pg. 19-20) ~\~\Those who wanted to retain some … abide some modicum of democracy. ~\~\B. Government Coercion destroys the value to life and cannot be morally justified Machan, Professor of philosophy, Auburn University, 95 [Tibor, PRIVATE RIGHTS AND PUBLIC ILLUSIONS, p. 68-9] All governmental action that does … to attain some worthy goal. ~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\

Solvency 1NC ~~1. Bahrain says no – Saudis check Al-Tamimi, student at Brasenose College, Oxford University, and has done work as an intern for the Middle East Forum, 6-19-11 (Aymenn Jawad, The American Thinker, “Bahrain: Can The U.S. Do Anything?,” http:~~/~~/www.americanthinker.com/2011/06/bahrain_can_the_us_do_anything.html, accessed 9-8-11, CMM) ~\~\But here is the catch: Saudi Arabia, … lies in the hands of the Saudis and the GCC. ~\~\2. The public says no to the plan AAI, Arab American Institute, 7-18-11 (The AAI is a non-profit, nonpartisan national leadership organization; AAI was created to nurture and encourage the direct participation of Arab Americans in political and civic life in the United States, “America in Trouble in the Middle East: Obama Understands, but GOP Gloats,” http:~~/~~/www.aaiusa.org/dr-zogby/entry/america-in-trouble-in-the-middle-east-obama-understands-but-gop-gloats/, accessed 9-1-11, CMM) ~\~\What our respondents tell us is the … the region and are treading on dangerous ground. ~\~\That kills solvency Carpenter, Cato Institute vice president for defense and foreign policy studies, 2-11-11 (Ted Galen, Cato, “What Should U.S. Do about Egypt? Very Little,” http:~~/~~/www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12780, accessed 8-31-11, CMM) ~\~\Though the spectacular events in … as much too little, much too late. ~\~\3. Double bind – either the plan is unnecessary and successful transition is inevitable or the plan isn’t enough to overcome the repressive government. Peters, assistant professor in the gov department at Wesleyan University, 2-14-11 (Anne Mariel, Foreign Policy, “Why Obama shouldn't increase democracy aid to Egypt,” http:~~/~~/mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/14/why_obama_shouldn_t_increase_democracy_aid_to_egypt, accessed 5-17-11, CMM) ~\~\The United States should promote democracy … and governance funding can do. ~\~\4. US aid for reformers backfires – anti-Americanism overwhelms them Carpenter, Cato Institute vice president for defense and foreign policy studies, 2-11-11 (Ted Galen, Cato, “What Should U.S. Do about Egypt? Very Little,” http:~~/~~/www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12780, accessed 8-31-11, CMM) ~\~\The danger of meddling U.S. policymakers understandably want to … role during these turbulent days. ~\~\Reconciliation fails – the government won’t make real concessions Ulrichsen, research fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science, 9-6-11 (Kristian Coates, “Dark clouds over Bahrain,” http:~~/~~/mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/06/dark_clouds_over_bahrain, accessed 9-7-11, CMM) ~\~\The killing of a 14-year-old boy by police on the island . between diametrically opposed camps. ~\~\~\~\Solvency 2NC ~\~\Saudi Arabian intervention guts solvency. Nasr, Bloomberg, 5-23-11 [Vali, “Will the Saudis Kill the Arab Spring?” http:~~/~~/www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-23/will-the-saudis-kill-the-arab-spring-.html, accessed 6-9-11, TAP] ~\~\Encouraging Dialog Washington … qualify on neither count. ~\~\Bahrain says no – self-preservation outweighs Northam, NPR, 3-22-11 (Jackie, “Bahrain Crackdown Puts Pressure On U.S. Diplomacy,” http:~~/~~/www.npr.org/2011/05/22/136507091/bahrain-crackdown-puts-pressure-on-u-s-diplomacy, accessed 9-8-11, CMM) ~\~\While public criticism of Bahrain's …going to respond to," he says. ~\~\~\~\US support for revolutions kills military credibility Bar, director of studies at the Institute for Policy and Strategy in Herzliya, Israel, 4-1-11 (Shmuel, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, “America’s Fading Middle East Influence,” Policy Review, No. 166, http:~~/~~/www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/73161, accessed 9-12-11, CMM) ~\~\The Arab revolts and democratization. It is ironic that the Obama administration, which initially rejected what it perceived as the … dramatically degraded. ~\~\~\~\~\~\ Fifth Fleet Answers 1NC No withdrawal – just rumors Toumi, Gulf News bureau chief, 7-22-1 (Habib, “US Navy dismisses reports it is moving out of Bahrain,” http:~~/~~/gulfnews.com/news/gulf/bahrain/us-navy-dismisses-reports-it-is-moving-out-of-bahrain-1.841519, accessed 9-8-11, CMM) ~\~\The US Navy has denied media reports it … military power in the Gulf, has little desire to move. ~\~\Protestors don’t want the US to withdraw Jentleson, Duke University Professor and Former State Department Policy Planning Director Senior Advisor, 2011, (Bruce W., “Beware the Duck Test”, Washington Quarterly, Summer, Pg. 146, PAS) http:~~/~~/www.twq.com/11summer/docs/11summer_Jentleson.pdf 7-18-11 ~\~\The 1979 Iran analogy is today’s Munich … over time, not Iran-like roots in the revolution. ~\~\Iran influence low now Tisdall, Guardian Foreign Affairs Columnist and Assistant Editor, 2011, (Simon, "Iran has been isolated by the Arab spring", Guardian, 5-17, PAS) www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/17/iran-arab-spring 9-2-11 ~\~\Nerves are fraying in Tehran as initial … Islamic goals, will definitely become victorious." ~\~\Iran credibility decline now – Syria crushes it Fassihi, Wall Street Journal Middle East and Africa Deputy Bureau Chief, 2011, (Farnaz, "Iran Feels Heat Over Support for Damascus", Wall Street Journal, 8-31, PAS) Accessed on Factiva 8-31-11 ~\~\BEIRUT—Iran's steadfast support … Ramadan, after demonstrators marched outside of mosques in the morning. ~\~\US working to undermine Iran now – democracy assistance not key Barnes et al, WSJ, 9-6-11 (Julian, Adam Entous, Siobhan Gorman, “US Eyes Covert Plan to Counter Iran in Iraq,” 9-6-11, http:~~/~~/online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903895904576547233284967482.html?mod=googlenews_wsj, accessed 9-14-11) PM ~\~\WASHINGTON—Military commanders … is Tehran's increased arms smuggling to its allies. ~\~\~\~\Basing bad – encourages terrorism Koplovsky, student of Public Affairs and a Master of Arts in National Security and Strategic Studies from the U.S. Naval War College, 6 (Michael, currently a career Foreign Service officer, A paper submitted to the Faculty of the Naval War College in partial satisfaction of the requirements of the Department of Joint Military Operations,10-23-06, “PRECIPITATING THE INEVITABLE: THE SURPRINGLY BENIGN IMPACT OF LOSING BASING RIGHTS IN BAHRAIN,” pg21-2, dodreports.com/pdf/ada463412.pdf, accessed 9-8-11, CMM) ~\~\Forward operating bases can carry … bases like the U.S. facilities in Bahrain. ~\~\No oil price spikes – the risk is hyped and externally supply sources solve Jones, assistant professor of history at Rutgers University and an editor at Middle East Report, 6-10-11 (Toby C., The Atlantic, “Time to Disband the Bahrain-Based U.S. Fifth Fleet,” http:~~/~~/www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/06/time-to-disband-the-bahrain-basedusfifth-fleet/240243/, accessed 9-8-11, CMM) ~\~\But the Gulf, after all, is a tough … of petrodollars have recycled through the U.S. economy. ~\~\Iran won’t close the Strait of Hormuz – not in its interests Stratfor, 8 (7-1-08, “Iran: The Threat to the Strait of Hormuz,” http:~~/~~/www.stratfor.com/node/119249/analysis/iran_threat_strait_hormuz, accessed 9-8-11, CMM) ~\~\Iran is under no illusions about … acceptable excuse to conduct an air campaign against it. ~\~\~\~\~\~\ Iraq Answers 1NC ~~1. Credibility low and will remain low – too many negative perceptions of US action PRC, Pew Research Center, 5-17-11 ("Obama's Challenge in the Muslim World," http:~~/~~/pewglobal.org/2011/05/17/arab-spring-fails-to-improve-us-image/, accessed 9-3-11, CMM) ~\~\As President Obama prepares to … their own governments cooperate too much with the U.S. ~\~\2. Huge alt cause to cred – Palestine Dorsey, Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, 8-26-11 (James M., Eurasia Review, “US And The Middle East: PR Fiasco Looms For Obama – Analysis,” http:~~/~~/www.eurasiareview.com/26082011-us-and-the-middle-east-pr-fiasco-looms-for-obama-analysis/, accessed 9-12-11, CMM) ~\~\COME SEPTEMBER the United States will … speech in Cairo in June 2009. ~\~\Credibility fails with Iraq – domestic issues outweigh Takeyh, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, 6-8-11 (Ray, NYT, “A Post-American Day Dawns in the Mideast,” http:~~/~~/www.nytimes.com/2011/06/09/opinion/09iht-edtakeyh09.html?_r=2&emc=tnt&tntemail1=y, accessed 9-13-11, CMM) ~\~\Even as Washington struggles … policies could challenge American parameters. ~\~\Iraq instability inevitable – Iranian influence and political faction conflicts Karon, TIME Staff Writer, 9-1, 2010, (Tony, “What the U.S. Leaves Behind: An Unstable, Vulnerable Iraq”, Time, PAS) http:~~/~~/www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2015277,00.html 9-22-10 ~\~\But the fact that no government in Iraq … governance has reinforced corruption and nepotism. ~\~\No impact – reengagement, allies, and efficiency solve Walt, professor of international relations at Harvard University, 10 (Stephen, 6-21-10, Foreign Policy, “Indispensable or insolvent?,” http:~~/~~/walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/06/21/indispensable_or_insolvent, accessed 3-2-11, CMM) ~\~\The Persian Gulf is a different … protect our interests there, particularly if we allocated assets wisely. ~\~\~\~\

AQAP Answers

The plan makes AQAP recruitment stronger
Feffer, co-director of Foreign Policy In Focus at the Institute for Policy Studies, 9-5-11
(John, InterPress Service,“Al-Qaeda Lost the Battle Long Ago,” http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=104991, accessed 9-6-11, CMM)

Al-Qaeda was certainly devoted to … lost even before we entered the battlefield.\

2. No terrorism takeover – Al Qaeda is no longer a threat
No terrorism threat – Arab Spring and drones have crushed the organization
-decentralized
-9/11 => groups moving away depriving them of specific people
-Egypt / Libya specific
Ashour, Brookings Visiting Fellow, 9-7, 2011,
(Omar, "From 9/11 to the Arab Spring", Brookings Institute, PAS) www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0907_arab_spring_ashour.aspx 9-20-11 

Al Qaeda's operating environment . has been severely undermined.

3. No risk of a rampant al Qaeda – they’re too weak and tribal politics constrain them
Spencer, a retired British infantry commander and a strategic analyst on political, security, and trade issue of MENA, Yemen specialist, 6-8-11
(James, Foreign Affairs, “A False Dawn for Yemen’s Militants,” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67883/james-spencer/a-false-dawn-for-yemens-militants?page=show#, accessed 7-27-11, CMM)

Throughout Yemen's political … rather than enable it. 

3. Yemeni people won’t support AQAP due to religious differences
Horton, Jamestown Foundation Arabian Affairs Senior Analyst, 2011,
(Michael, "Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Challenges and Opportunities in Revolutionary Yemen", Pak Tea House, 4-27, PAS) pakteahouse.net/2011/04/27/al-qaeda-in-the-arabian-peninsula-challenges-and-opportunities-in-revolutionary-yemen/ 9-25-11 

In a recent article … effect that should not be underestimated.

4. The aff can’t solve – economy key
Browne, RUSI Qatar Researcher, 2011,
(Peter, "Regime Change in Yemen", Royal United Services Institute: Independent Thinking on Defense and Security, 4-19, PAS) www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4DAD6729BFDBF/ 9-25-11 

The economic challenges that … steps down in a year's time.[12]

5. Local governments won’t go after AQAP - they have their own security concerns
Kagan, American Enterprise Institute Critical Threats Project Director, 2010,
(Frederick, “How to Apply "Smart Power" in Yemen”, American Enterprise Institute, 1-13, PAS) http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/how-apply-smart-power-yemen 9-25-11 

Yemen faces … after our enemies is likely to fail.

No ricin bombs – the authors who originally wrote the ricin bombs story were just hyping up their book
Smith, Ph.D., writer on biological and chemical weapons for multiple publications, 8-15-11
(George Smith, has consulted to terrorism trials as an expert on the analysis of seized electronic Internet-distributed texts on improvised weapons, Global Security.org, “Ricin bomb rubbish,” http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/110815788-ricin-bomb-rubbish.htm, accessed 9-8-11, CMM)

The weekend's … interval ago, news-wise.

No ricin bombs – its too difficult to construct – the US military failed
Smith, Ph.D., writer on biological and chemical weapons for multiple publications, 8-15-11
(George Smith, has consulted to terrorism trials as an expert on the analysis of seized electronic Internet-distributed texts on improvised weapons, Global Security.org, “Ricin bomb rubbish,” http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/110815788-ricin-bomb-rubbish.htm, accessed 9-8-11, CMM)

Here's the … scientists working on this project in Yemen.

Even conventional retaliation against civilians wouldn’t happen
Gerecht, AEI resident fellow, 7-10-06
[Reuel Marc, "Cognitive Dissonance: The State of America’s Iran Policy," http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.24637,filter.all/pub_detail.asp]

It seems … Islamic states. 

Obama would not respond with nuclear retaliation
Crowley, The New Republic staff writer, 1/5/2009
[Michael, "Obama and Nuclear Deterrence," http://www.tnr.com/node/72263, 1/5]

As the story notes, … go through with it.

US won’t lash-out
Bremmer, 04
[President  Eurasia Group, http://www.newstatesman.com/200409130005, 1/18]
What would happen if … for the invasion of Afghanistan.

No chance of attacking Iran – economic incentives prevent
Barkey, Carnegie Endowment Middle East Program Visiting Scholar, and Dadush, Carnegie Endowment International Economics Program Director and Senior Associate, 1/27/2010
[Henri, Uri, "Why No U.S. President will Bomb Iran," http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=24783, 2/2]

The Obama administration’s … to Iran, all options are not on the table.

Saudi Relations Answers

Relations low – multiple issues
Lobe, Washington D.C. correspondent and chief of the Washington bureau of Inter Press Service (IPS), 9-14-11
(Jim, “Agreeing on Less and Less,” http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=105103, accessed 9-15-11,  CMM)

Accumulating strains … Research Center (GRC). 

Double bind – either relations are resilient or collapse inevitable and Palestine outweighs
Ottaway, senior scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and a former Washington Post Middle East correspondent, 9-23-11
(David, Foreign Policy, “Uncle Sam and the Saudi Split,” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/09/23/uncle_sam_and_the_saudi_split?page=full, accessed 9-25-11, CMM)

Saudi Arabia, the Arab world's … the unsettled U.S.-Saudi relationship.

No risk of any US-China war – economic interdependency
Richburg, Washington Post, staff writer, 11/15/2009
[Keith, "On eve of Obama visit, an uneasy co-dependency between U.S. and China," http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/15/AR2009111502435.html, 11/16]

As President Obama … both win. If not, we both lose."

No chance of China war – political moderation solves
Deudney, John Hopkins Political Science Professor, and Ikenberry, Princeton Politics and Int'l Affairs Professor, Jan/Feb 2009
[Daniel, John, " The Myth of the Autocratic Revival ," http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20090101faessay88106/daniel-deudney-g-john-ikenberry/the-myth-of-the-autocratic-revival.html?mode=print]

The prospects for revisionist … toward normalization operating here.

~\~\

UNIQUENESS and INTERNAL LINK – the left in Israel has momentum and will come to power only if they control the national narrative with economic not security issues. That’s key to the peace-process.
Bronner, NYT, 7-31-11
(Ethan, “Israelis Feel Tug of Protests, Reviving the Left’s Spirits,” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/01/world/middleeast/01israel.html?_r=1, accessed 8-2-11, CMM)

For years Israelis told …and to share Jerusalem in a two-state solution. 

LINK – Israelis perceive US democracy promotion as an existential threat to security
Stratfor, 5-25-11
(“In Arab Spring, Disagreement Blossoms Between Israel, U.S.,” http://www.stratfor.com/node/195414/geopolitical_diary/20110525-arab-spring-disagreement-blossoms-between-israel-us, accessed 8-11-11, CMM)

Israeli Prime Minister … interests (and thus security).

IMPACT – Arab-Israeli conflict makes nuclear war inevitable
Nawash, Former Bush Representative to Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, 9
(Kamal, master of laws, international legal studies, American University, Legal Director of the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee, LLC, first Arab American and Muslim to be nominated to run for the Virginia State Senate, The Muslim Observer, "Israel/Palestine Conflict May Lead to Nuclear War" http://muslimmedianetwork.com/mmn/?p=3501 [accessed 9/3/10])

Once again the Palestinian/Israeli … are no other choices.

~\~\

Text: The United States Federal Government should cut all military assistance to the Egyptian military.

Cutting military aid to the Egyptian military is key to successful democratization and credibility and doesn’t link to politics.
Innocent, foreign policy analyst at the Cato Institute, and Bouasria, professor of Arab Studies at the International Center for Language Studies, 4-21-11
(Malou and Abdeliah, “End U.S. Aid to Egypt,” http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=13047, accessed 9-5-11, CMM)

A majority of Americans say they …across the Muslim world.

~\~\

1. The plan can’t solve US credibility – Palestine outweighs
   Brenner, University of Pittsburgh International Affairs Professor and Center for Transatlantic Relations Senior Fellow, 9-29, 2011,
   (Michael, "America in the Middle East: Dim the Lights', Huffington Post, PAS) www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-brenner/obama-israel-policy_b_986879.html?ir=Politics 9-29-11 

The United States' strategic position … beyond  severely compromised.

2. Cred collapse inevitable – debt ceiling, Obama weakness, election season and NATO Ullman, Senior Advisor at the Atlantic Council, Chairman of the Killowen Group that advises leaders of government and business, and a frequent advisor to NATO, 9/21/11
(Harlan, “America Don't Get No Respect,” http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/america-dont-get-no-respect, accessed 9-29-11, CMM)

The late American comedian Rodney …happen quickly if it happens at all.

3. Supporting Islamist groups won’t boost credibility – Anti-American sentiments are too engrained
Bar, director of studies at the Institute for Policy and Strategy in Herzliya, Israel, 4-1-11
(Shmuel, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, “America’s Fading Middle East Influence,” Policy Review, No. 166, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/73161, accessed 9-12-11, CMM)

The chances of democracy in … power in the region.

4. US support for revolutions kills military credibility
Bar, director of studies at the Institute for Policy and Strategy in Herzliya, Israel, 4-1-11
(Shmuel, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, “America’s Fading Middle East Influence,” Policy Review, No. 166, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/73161, accessed 9-12-11, CMM)

The Arab revolts and …been dramatically degraded.

~\~\

The public says no to the plan
Schenker, Washington Institute Program on Arab Politics director, 2011
[David, 9-15-11, “Washington's Limited Influence in Egypt” http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1715, accessed 9-23-11, TAP]

That's because Washington's … not unexpected development.

Egypt says no – wants direct control over funding – their author
Chick, Christian Science Monitor Correspondent, 8-12, 2011,
(Kristen, "Why Egypt is angry over $65 million in US democracy grants", Christian Science Monitor, PAS) http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0812/Why-Egypt-is-angry-over-65-million-in-US-democracy-grants/(page)/2 9-31-11 

Egyptian government … some see as coming with strings attached. 

Egypt rejects demo assistance
Reuters, 6-29-11
(“Factbox: Most U.S. aid to Egypt goes to military,” http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/29/us-egypt-usa-aid-idUSTRE70S0IN20110129, accessed 7-3-11, CMM)

Part of U.S. economic aid is .. on January 28.

Egyptians will refuse the aid – they want to prove they can do it on their own
Cook, senior Middle East fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, ‘11
(Steven, “America Shouldn’t Hijack Egypt’s Revolution,” 9-3-11, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/03/09/america_shouldnt_hijack_egypts_revolution?page=full, accessed 9-8-11) PM

The revolutionaries of ..the opportunity to triumph or fail on their own.

Public backlashes to US aid – fears of a new Mubarak
Cook, senior Middle East fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, ‘11
(Steven, “America Shouldn’t Hijack Egypt’s Revolution,” 9-3-11, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/03/09/america_shouldnt_hijack_egypts_revolution?page=full, accessed 9-8-11) PM

Policy analysts and democracy-… inimical to American interests.

Elections are mad unorganized – means no short term solvency
Al-Atrush, AP, 9-19-11
(Samer, “Egypt’s Democratic Transition Lags Among Confusion,” 9-19-11, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5ju38jTzeVV_L13f56p_FmygLYZJw?docId=CNG.ae64262d1dcb6895c6f8b9cb03b1b8f3.81, accessed 9-20-11) PM

The country suffers from … up to half of parliament.

Elections will fail – emergency law
Sabry, McClatchy DC News Correspondent, 9-21-11
(Mohannad, “Egypt’s Military Rulers Won’t Lift Hated Emergency Law Until Next Year,” 9-21-11, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/09/21/124845/egypts-military-rulers-wont-lift.html, accessed 9-22-11) PM

CAIRO — Egypt's caretaker military …. in the name of protecting the country."

Elections fail inevitably – secular and religious party fighting and economic problems
Mustafa, Gulf News, 8-30-11
(Ayman, London-based Arab world writer, has had articles published in Gulf News, Maghreb News, and other Arab news sources, “Egypt Has to Show Resolve,” 8-30-11, http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/egypt-has-to-show-resolve-1.858781, accessed 9-7-11) PM

Some might argue that … that hijacked the popular uprising led by enthusiastic youth.

Alt causality – corruption
Young, BBC World Service business reporter, 9-15-11
(Rob, “Egyptians still await economic change,” http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14907631, accessed 9-19-11, CMM)

'Further uprising' January's protesters also … there will be further uprising," she says.
*Yasmine El Rashidi, a former Middle East correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, has written for The Washington Post etc. 

Corruption deters renewable energy investment in North Africa
Komendantova et al, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 5-19-11
(Nadejda, Anthony Patt and Stefan Pfenninger, “Corruption Blocks Solar Sahara Project,” http://blog.transparency.org/2011/05/19/corruption-blocks-solar-sahara-project/, accessed 9-22-11, CMM)

Renewable energy sources in North Africa … to fight climate change unrealized.

~/~/ \\\\~/~/~/~/ \\\\~/~/A. Uniqueness – Boehner is using his political capital to block China Bashing legislation now (% class="tag" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Beattie(%%), Financial Times, 10-4-(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Alan, “US currency bill drama belies grind ahead” , accessed 10-24-11, TAP] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) So, are they serious? (% class="underline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Monday’s overwhelming (% class="underline" %)…(%%) concern in the US political system. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) B. Link – Boehner has provided rhetorical support for democracy assistance now but has held the line on spending now – proves that he would get the blame for the plan – killing his credibility. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)McInerney(% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %), POMED Executive Director, 9-16-(% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Stephen, Project on Middle East Democracy, “More than Rhetorical Support Needed for Democracy,” (% class="MsoNormal" %) http:~/~/pomed.org/blog/2011/09/more-than-rhetorical-support-needed-for-democracy.html/, accessed 9-25-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) Yesterday, on the occasion of …(% class="Emphasis2" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)interfered(%%) with administration efforts to do so. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)C. Impact – US currency pressure causes global trade wars, economic collapse, and Asian instability escalating to war (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Grey(% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %), frequent contributor Global Research, (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)10 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Barry, 10-1-10, Centre for Research on Globalization, “(% style="font-family: Times;" %)US House Passes Anti-China Trade War Bill,” http:~/~/www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=21252, accessed 2-14-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" %)If passed by the Senate and … tensions that ultimately erupted in (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)World War II.

1.  Brotherhood won’t be radical – domestic issues will outweigh Iraq proves
   Duss, American Progress Policy Analyst and Middle East Progress Director, 2011,
   (Matthew, "Recognizing Reality in the Middle East", Center for American Progress, 7-1, PAS) www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/07/middle_east_reality.html 8-21-11 

Secretary Clinton’s comments … to be among those problems.

2. Islamist control irrelevant – president has the power
Democracy Digest, 2011,
("Egypt’s democrats more concerned about Salafists than Brotherhood?", 8-8, PAS) www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/08/egypts-democrats-more-concerned-about-salafists-than-brotherhood/
8-30-11 

But these moderate …. into the unknown.”

3. Aff solvency and impacts don’t match up. The Muslim Brotherhood is irrational enough to attack Israel but rational enough to be convinced by the US? 

4. Double Bind – MB needs to give concessions in order to get power but concessions will splinter the group
Al-Anani, Durham University School of Government and International Affairs Scholar, 2011,
(Khalil, "A Brotherhood government?", Almasry Alyoum, 5-29, PAS) www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/456025 8-17-11

But like other Islamists in … Egypt’s next government.

5. Muslim Brotherhood will lose – hidden internal divisions make them seem more powerful than they actually are
Glain, The Nation, 8-24-11
(Stephen, “Fault Lines in Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood,” 8-24-11, http://www.thenation.com/article/162970/fault-lines-egypts-muslim-brotherhood, accessed 9-6-11) PM

I met with Habib in June. … as they were under Mubarak.”

6. No war with Israel  
Washington Times, 2011,
(Eli Lake, "Muslim Brotherhood seeks end to Israel treaty", 2-3, PAS) www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/feb/3/muslim-brotherhood-seeks-end-to-israel-treaty/ 7-26-11

During the 1990s, when Israeli …s into Gaza.   

~/~/ \\\\~/~/~/~/ \\\\~/~/A. Link – Democracy assistance is a strategy used to transform the non-west into a hub for American imperialism – orientalist narratives frame US engagement and create a construction of the next enemy – leads to inevitable policy failure (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Ghannoushi(%%), (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)School of Oriental and African Studies History of Ideas Researcher(%%), 20(% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)11(%%), (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Soumaya, "Obama, hands off our spring", The Guardian, 5-26, PAS) 10-22-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)The US wants to turn the Arab revolutions …, while occupying and aiding occupation(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) B. Extinction (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Batur(%%), (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Vassar College Sociology Professor(%%), 20(% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)07(%%), (% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (Pinar, "Heart of Violence: Global Racism, War, and Genocide", Handbooks of the Sociology of Racial and Ethnic Relations, Pg. 447-449, PAS) 10-16-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) At the turn of the 20th century, …. up with genocide, in Darfur. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) C. Alternative – vote negative to open up alternative understands of the East – it is an ethical priority (% class="tag" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)McDowell(%%), University of Edinburgh Systematic theology professor, 20(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)03 (% class="MsoNormal" %) [John, “Edward Said on Orientalism: Knowledge as Power” , accessed 10-18-11, TAP] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) Listening to Strangers Developing such (% class="underline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)a critical perspective (%%)on all this is a feat made possible for Said by serious attention to … since the time of Homer.

== (% class="Underline" %)Neg: UMW MM(%%) == == (% class="Underline" %)Round # 5 Tournament:Shirley(%%) == == (% class="Underline" %)Vs Team: UNT KP(%%) == == (% class="Underline" %)Judge: Chung(%%) == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) === (% class="Underline" %)Off Case Args%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)T substantial (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Private aid CP (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)EU forum CP (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Boehner politics (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Asia Summit DA (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Coercion (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) === (% class="Underline" %)Case Args%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Kiss of death (Libya) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) === (% class="Underline" %)Block Strategy%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Private Aid CP (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Coercion (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)EU CP (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Solvency turns (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) === (% class="Underline" %)2nr Strategy%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Private aid cp (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Solvency turns ===== (% class="Underline" %)Neg: Mary Washington MM(%%) ===== ===== (% class="Underline" %)Round # 4 Tournament: Shirley(%%) ===== ===== (% class="Underline" %)Vs Team: Kentucky CW(%%) ===== ===== (% class="Underline" %)Judge: Jadon Marianetti(%%) ===== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== (% class="Underline" %)Off Case Args%%) ====== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)A-Spec (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)T- Substantial must be material increase (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)CP- tax credit CP (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %) -Politics = NB (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)EU co-opt with US CP (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %) -EU burden sharing NB (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)China bashing (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %) -trade war impact (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Asian summit Da (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %) -instability~-~-> econ collapse (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== (% class="Underline" %)Case Args%%) ====== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Case D (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Solvency: (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Policy doesn’t go through SKAF~-~-> back lash (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Public says no (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Kiss of death (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== (% class="Underline" %)Block Strategy%%) ====== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)2NC: Aspec, Asian summit Da (new china war impact scenario) , solvency, Co-opt Adv (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)1NR: EU CP, Religious freedom (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== (% class="Underline" %)2nr Strategy%%) ====== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Asian summit Da (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %) -China war (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %) -Econ collapse (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Solvency (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %) -Say no (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %) -SKAF backlash (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Co-opt (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Religious freedom == (% class="Underline" %)Neg:UMW MM(%%) == == (% class="Underline" %)Round # 1 Tournament:Shirley(%%) == == (% class="Underline" %)Vs Team: Vanderbilt SW(%%) == == (% class="Underline" %)Judge: Jake Weiner(%%) == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) === (% class="Underline" %)Off Case Args%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)T DA not military (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)T substantial is $2.5 billion (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)EU Forum CP (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Saudi Arabia DA (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Asia Summit DA (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)China Bashing DA (Boehner) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) === (% class="Underline" %)Case Args%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)UAE FDI DA (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)US-Egypt relations resilient (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Egypt says no (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)ME war no escalation (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Egypt not equal key to global econ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Egypt econ is good (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)No Suez impact (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) === (% class="Underline" %)Block Strategy%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)2nc: Saudi DA (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Asia DA (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Case (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)1nr: EU cp (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) === (% class="Underline" %)2nr Strategy%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Asia DA (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Case

(% class="tag" %) A. Interpretation – democracy assistance’s primary purpose is to foster democracy (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)Huber(% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %), Hebrew University of Jerusalem Department of International Relations, (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10pt; background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow" %)8 (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Daniela, Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 13, No. 1, 43–62, March 2008, “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies”, p. 45-6, [[http:~~/~~/pdfserve.informaworld.com/69109~~_~~_790479070.pdf>>http://pdfserve.informaworld.com/69109__790479070.pdf]], accessed 6-3-11] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="underline" style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)What is Democracy Assistance(% class="underline" %)? (%%)The AND (% class="underline" %)DA is more than electoral assistance.

(% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt" %)A. Definition – substantial is quantitative (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)Merriam-Webster 9 (% class="MsoNormal" %) ([[http:~~/~~/www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/substantially>>http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/substantially]], accessed 9-9-9) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) Main Entry: (% class="underline" style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)sub•stan•tial(% class="underline" %) (%%)b : (% class="underline" style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)considerable in quantity(% class="underline" %) : significantly great (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt" %)And substantial means materially (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)WORDS & PHRASES, 2 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Vol. 40A, 20**__02__**, p. 469.) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) IILApI,. 2 Dist. 1923. “(% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)**__Substantial__**(%%)” (% style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)**__means in substance__**(%%), (% class="underline" %)in the main, essential,(%%) (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)**__including material__**(%%) or essential parts. -White v. City Of' Otlawa. 230 IILApIt. 491, affirmcd 149 N.G. 021. 318 Ill. 463. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) Substantial is 2.5 billion. (% class="tag" %) (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)Carothers(%%), Carnegie Endowment for peace vice president, (% style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)9 (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Thomas, “Revitalizing U.S. democracy assistance: the challenge of USAID” [[http:~~/~~/carnegieendowment.org/files/revitalizing_democracy_assistance.pdf>>http://carnegieendowment.org/files/revitalizing_democracy_assistance.pdf]], accessed 10-24-11, TAP] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) Over the past 25 years, (% class="underline" style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)AND (%%)player in the democracy aid domain. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) And, “increase” means to make greater and requires a pre-existing baseline. (% class="tag" %) (% lang="ES" style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow; mso-ansi-language:ES" %)Buckley(% lang="ES" %), et al, Kolar LLP, (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)6 (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Jeremiah, Joseph Kolar, Matthew Previn, Thomas, counsel of record Kolar LLP, Thomas Hefferon, Richard Wyner, and Joseph Yenouskas, Goodwin Procter LLP, “Brief of Amici Curiae mortgage insurance companies of America and consumer mortgage coalition in support of petitioners” [[http:~~/~~/supreme.lp.findlaw.com/supreme_court/briefs/06-84/06-84.mer.ami.mica.pdf>>http://supreme.lp.findlaw.com/supreme_court/briefs/06-84/06-84.mer.ami.mica.pdf]], p.25-6, accessed 9-2-10, TP] (% class="card" %) (% class="card" %) First, the court said that AND (% class="underline" %)of an already-existing policy(%%).

(% class="tag" %) A. Boehner blocking China bashing now. (% class="tag" %) Davis and Reddy, WSJ, 11-11-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Bob and Sudeep, “Pressure Increases Over Yuan” [[http:~~/~~/online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204224604577029604255217934.html>>http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204224604577029604255217934.html]], accessed 11-10-11, TAP] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" style="background:yellow;mso-highlight: yellow" %)The Senate (% class="underline" %)last month (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight: yellow" %)passed (%%)a AND (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)prompt the GOP leadership to reconsider(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) B. Link – Boehner has provided rhetorical support for democracy assistance now but has held the line on spending now – proves that he would get the blame for the plan – killing his credibility. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)McInerney(% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %), POMED Executive Director, 9-16-(% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10pt; background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow" %)11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Stephen, Project on Middle East Democracy, “More than Rhetorical Support Needed for Democracy,” (% class="MsoNormal" %) http:~/~/pomed.org/blog/2011/09/more-than-rhetorical-support-needed-for-democracy.html/, accessed 9-25-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) Yesterday, on the occasion of AND (% class="Emphasis2" %)with administration efforts to do so. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) Boehner would get involved – the plan is unpopular and has to go through Congress (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt" %)Ladwig, DOD consultant and Oxford Strategic Studies Ph.D. candidate, 7 (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Walter A. III, Comparative Strategy, July, 26:285–293, “Training Foreign Police: A Missing Aspect of U.S. (% class="MsoNormal" %) Security Assistance to Counterinsurgency”, p. 291, Academic Search Complete, accessed 10-28-11, AFB] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" style="background:aqua;mso-highlight: aqua" %)Implementing a(% class="underline" %) coherent centralized (% style="background:aqua; mso-highlight:aqua" %)capacity to AND (%%)agency for foreign law enforcement assistance. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) C. Internal link – capital is key for Boehner to hold the line on legislation. (% class="tag" %) (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)Beattie(%%), Financial Times, 10-4-(% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Alan, “US currency bill drama belies grind ahead” [[http:~~/~~/www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ec234e82-eebc-11e0-959a-00144feab49a.html#axzz1bjL7K4Gm>>http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ec234e82-eebc-11e0-959a-00144feab49a.html#axzz1bjL7K4Gm]], accessed 10-24-11, TAP] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) So, are they serious? (% class="underline" style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)AND (%%)concern in the US political system. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt" %)D. Impact – Currency pressure causes trade wars that escalate to World War 3 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)Grey(% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %), frequent contributor Global Research, (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10pt; background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow" %)10 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Barry, 10-1-10, Centre for Research on Globalization, “(% style="font-family:~"Times~",~"serif~"; mso-bidi-font-family:~"Times New Roman~"" %)US House Passes Anti-China Trade War Bill,” http:~/~/www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=21252, accessed 2-14-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" %)If passed by the Senate and AND ultimately erupted in (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)World War II.

(% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt" %)A. Uniqueness – Obama is focused the Asian summit – success is key to regional stability. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %)Bower(% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %), Senior Adviser and Director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10-27-(% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10pt; background: aqua; mso-highlight: aqua" %)11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Ernest Z., “Why November Matters for Obama,” http:~/~/the-diplomat.com/2011/10/27/why-november-matters-for-obama/?all=true, accessed 11-5-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" %)The (% style="background:aqua; mso-highlight:aqua" %)poisonous atmosphere in Washington will AND (%%)price of greatness is responsibility.’ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt" %) (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top:.1pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:.1pt; margin-left:0in;mso-para-margin-top:.01gd;mso-para-margin-right:0in;mso-para-margin-bottom: .01gd;mso-para-margin-left:0in" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)B. Link – Foreign policy normal means requires spending finite political capital to pass the plan (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10pt; background: aqua; mso-highlight: aqua" %)Naim,(% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %) Foreign Policy editor, (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10pt; background: aqua; mso-highlight: aqua" %)98 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top:.1pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:.1pt; margin-left:0in;mso-para-margin-top:.01gd;mso-para-margin-right:0in;mso-para-margin-bottom: .01gd;mso-para-margin-left:0in" %) (% style="font-family:~"Times~",~"serif~"; mso-bidi-font-family:~"Times New Roman~"" %)[Moises, FOREIGN POLICY, Winter 97/98, “Clinton's foreign policy: A victim of globalization?”, p. 41, AFB] (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top:.1pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:.1pt; margin-left:0in;mso-para-margin-top:.01gd;mso-para-margin-right:0in;mso-para-margin-bottom: .01gd;mso-para-margin-left:0in" %) (% style="font-family:~"Times~",~"serif~"; mso-bidi-font-family:~"Times New Roman~"" %) (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" style="background:aqua;mso-highlight: aqua" %)Often overlooked(% class="underline" %) amid all the handwringing (% style="background: aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %)AND forging better relations with foreign counterparts(% style="background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt" %)C. Impact – Asian instability escalates and collapses the economy (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)Landay(% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %), National Security and Intelligence Correspondent, (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10pt; background: lime; mso-highlight: lime" %)2K (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Jonathan S., “Top administration officials warn stakes for U.S. are high in Asian conflicts”, 3-10, Knight Ridder/Tribune News) Accessed on LexisNexis 12-29-09 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" %)Few if any experts think China AND (%%), according to the Commerce Department.

(% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt" %)The European Union should propose to the United States Federal Government a high-level transatlantic strategic forum for coordinating policies toward democratic reform in the Middle East and North Africa, modeled on the U.S.-EU strategic dialogue on Asia. The European Union should inform the United States of its intention to take a lead donor role on substantially increasing its police training for Egypt. The European Union should substantially increase its police training for Egypt. The European Union should propose that the forum release a joint diplomatic statement of high-level transatlantic support for the European initiative. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt" %)Funding should be provided by increasing the percentage of the European Neighbourhood and Partnership Instrument that is devoted to democracy. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) The CP is perceived as US and EU action – the CPs dialogue led by the EU solves the case and EU cred (% class="tag" %) (% style="background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %)Silvestri(%%), president of the Istituto Affari Internazionali, ‘(% style="background:aqua; mso-highlight:aqua" %)11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Stefano, “A European Strategy for Democracy, Development and Security for the Mediterranean,” May 2011, [[http:~~/~~/www.iai.it/pdf/DocIAI/iaiwp1110.pdf>>http://www.iai.it/pdf/DocIAI/iaiwp1110.pdf]], accessed 11-8-11) PM (% class="tag" %) (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" %)The crisis of the Arab regimes AND (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)the larger context is not overlooked. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) (% class="cite" %)Trans-Atlantic coop solves every major impact – now is key (% class="tag" %) (% class="cite" style="background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %)Stivachtis(% class="cite" %), Director of International Studies Program, Virginia Polytechnic Institute, (% style="background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %)10 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; " %)[Dr. Yannis A., “The Imperative for Transatlantic Cooperation,” Research Institute for Eureopean and American Studies, RIEAS, [[(% class="cite cite cite cite cite cite" style="font-size: 12pt; font-size: 12pt; font-size: 12pt; font-size: 12pt; font-size: 12pt; font-size: 12pt; font-size: 10pt" %)http:~~/~~/www.rieas.gr/research-areas/global-issues/transatlantic-studies/78.html>>http://www.rieas.gr/research-areas/global-issues/transatlantic-studies/78.html]](%%), 2010, access date: 10-26-11, MAY] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) There is no doubt that (% class="underline" style="background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %)USAND (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)on both sides of the Atlantic. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) (% class="cite" %)EU credibility solves extinction (% class="tag" %) (% class="cite" style="background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %)Bruton(% class="cite" %), Deputy Joint Committee on European Affairs, (% style="background:aqua; mso-highlight:aqua" %)2 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; " %)[John, “A REPORT FOR THE JOINT OIREACHTAS COMMITTEE ON EUROPEAN AFFAIRS BY JOHN BRUTON T.D: The Future of the European Union,” [[(% class="cite cite cite cite cite cite" style="font-size: 12pt; font-size: 12pt; font-size: 12pt; font-size: 12pt; font-size: 12pt; font-size: 12pt; font-size: 10pt" %)http:~~/~~/www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/special/2002/europe/index.htm>>http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/special/2002/europe/index.htm]](%%), 01-31-02, access date: 10-28-11, MAY] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; " %) (% class="card" %) As the Laeken Declaration put itAND (% class="underline" style="background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %)forces that will otherwise overwhelm us(% style="background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %).

(% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt" %)Police training fails – Afghanistan proves (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)Wolf(% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %), Atlantic Review, (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 10pt; background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow" %)6 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Joerg, 12-6-06, “Germany and the United States Failed to Train Afghanistan’s Police,” http:~/~/atlanticreview.org/archives/497-Germany-and-the-United-States-Failed-to-Train-Afghanistans-Police.html, accessed 9-14-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" %)The creation of a stable and AND (%%)are now calling a civil war.

(% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt" %)**1. Relations resilient – military aid.** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt;background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)**Hendawi**(% style="font-size:12.0pt" %)**, **(% lang="EN" style="font-size:12.0pt; color:black;mso-ansi-language:EN" %)**chief of bureau in Cairo responsible for coverage of Egypt, Libya and Sudan, **(% lang="EN" style="font-size: 12pt; color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN; background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow" %)**11**(% lang="EN" style="color:black;mso-ansi-language: EN" %) (%%)(Hamza, 8/11/11, “USAID boss in Egypt quits in funding row,” http:~/~/www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hm3Yz-nHqYCp3zRIizwj4a4lRE5w?docId=9444fa1d94c843c89e1e730a881d00c3, accessed 9/2/11, EEG) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) Still (% class="underline" style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)the U.S.-AND (%%)," she wrote several months ago. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt" %)2. No impact – 5^^th^^ fleet prevents Suez closure (% class="tag" %) (% class="cite" style="background:yellow;mso-highlight: yellow" %)Vaughan(% class="cite" %), Express News, ‘(% style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Vicki, “Suez Canal skirts unrest in Egypt,” 2-4-11, [[http:~~/~~/www.mysanantonio.com/business/article/Suez-Canal-skirts-unrest-in-Egypt-997497.php>>http://www.mysanantonio.com/business/article/Suez-Canal-skirts-unrest-in-Egypt-997497.php]], accessed 9-30-11) PM (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; " %)But (% class="underline" %)economists say the jitters(% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; " %), AND step in to supply the grain.

(% class="MsoNormal" %) 1NC OFFCASE: T: Substantial, Boehner China Politics, Asia Summit DA, EU Forum CP, Tax Credit CP, (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Leadership (% class="MsoNormal" %) The plan can’t solve US credibility – Palestine outweighs (% class="MsoNormal" %) Brenner, University of Pittsburgh International Affairs Professor and Center for Transatlantic Relations Senior Fellow, 9-29, 2011, (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Michael, "America in the Middle East: Dim the Lights', Huffington Post, PAS) www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-brenner/obama-israel-policy_b_986879.html?ir=Politics 9-29-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) The United States' strategic position in the … Islamic world ~-~- and beyond ~-~- severely compromised. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Can’t solve cred and they’d say no (% class="MsoNormal" %) Carpenter, Cato Institute vice president for defense and foreign policy studies, 2-11-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Ted Galen, Cato, “What Should U.S. Do about Egypt? Very Little,” (% class="MsoNormal" %) http:~/~/www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12780, accessed 8-31-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Though the spectacular events in Cairo … been seen as much too little, much too late. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Transition (% class="MsoNormal" %) ~1. Middle East conflict won’t spillover or escalate (% class="MsoNormal" %) Cook and Takeyh, CFR Middle Eastern Studies senior fellow, 6-28-07 (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Ray, and Steven A., Douglas Dillon fellow, "Why the Iraq war won't engulf the Mideast," http:~/~/www.cfr.org/publication/13702/] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Yet, the Saudis, Iranians, Jordanians, Syrians, … prevent local conflicts from enveloping the entire Middle East. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) No escalation – empirics prove cooperation is more likely (% class="MsoNormal" %) Fettweis, Asst Prof Poli Sci – Tulane, Asst Prof National Security Affairs – US Naval War College, ‘7 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Christopher, “On the Consequences of Failure in Iraq,” Survival, Vol. 49, Iss. 4, December, p. 91-93, ebsco, accessed 9-28-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Regional chaos (% class="MsoNormal" %) Without the US presence, a second … interest is far more likely than outright warfare. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) No Egypt-Israel war – Israel will act rationally and US aid to Egypt prevents it (% class="MsoNormal" %) Haynes, pursuing a Master's degree in political science at the American University in Cairo, Egypt, 8-25-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Christopher, Atlantic Sentinel, “Egypt-Israel Relations Cool But Will Endure,” http:~/~/atlanticsentinel.com/2011/08/egypt-israel-relations-cool-but-will-endure/, accessed 9-12-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Tension between Egypt and Israel mounted … nations would enter into a state of war any time soon. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) MB won’t radicalize – their evidence is theoretical not predictive (% class="MsoNormal" %) A. Iraq proves. (% class="MsoNormal" %) Duss, American Progress Policy Analyst and Middle East Progress Director, 2011, (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Matthew, "Recognizing Reality in the Middle East", Center for American Progress, 7-1, PAS) www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/07/middle_east_reality.html 8-21-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Secretary Clinton’s comments recognize … West do not appear to be among those problems. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) B. Governing will split their power and check radical actions. (% class="MsoNormal" %) Al-Anani, Durham University School of Government and International Affairs Scholar, 2011, (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Khalil, "A Brotherhood government?", Almasry Alyoum, 5-29, PAS) www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/456025 8-17-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) But like other Islamists in Turkey, Algeria, …running Egypt’s next government. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) 2NC No Escalation EXT (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Middle Eastern war won’t escalate- (% class="MsoNormal" %) 1) Arab leaders won’t commit forces to a conflict that doesn’t involve them – intervention is risky for domestic stability – history is on our side- the Lebanese civil war, Iraq, Israel-Palestine, and other conflicts prove that Mid-eastern conflicts stay contained- that’s the Cook. (% class="MsoNormal" %) 2) Cooperation is more likely –actors in the region are risk adverse – no one wants conflict to escalate – proves that miscalc is overstated and countries will work to deescalate the situation first – that’s Fettweis. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND- Middle East conflict doesn’t spill-over- the Israeli-Palestinian conflict proves (% class="MsoNormal" %) Satloff, Washington Institute for Near East Policy executive director, 12-9-06 (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Robert, "Forget the Domino Theories," http:~/~/www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1011] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Linkage also has its more ominous side. … Shiite ethnic cleansing is far-fetched. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Empirics are conclusive – tons of war in the region and zero escalation prove (% class="MsoNormal" %) Drum, Staff Writer for the Washington Monthly, 7 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Kevin, 9-9-7, http:~/~/www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2007_09/012029.php, accessed 8-28-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Having admitted, however, that the odds … the Gulf. We'll hardly be absent from the region. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Collapse in relations triggers Suez shutdown (% class="MsoNormal" %) Martini, RAND Middle East research project associate & Taylor, RAND political scientist, 11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Jeffrey & Julie E., 8-25-11, Foreign Affairs, “Commanding Democracy in Egypt: The Military's Attempt to Manage the Future”, http:~/~/www.rand.org/commentary/2011/08/25/FA.html%29, accessed 10-2-11, AFB] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Yet the United States' capacity to … the United States can do little to change. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Suez access key to prevent skyrocketing oil prices (% class="MsoNormal" %) Lompoc Record, 11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (2-2-11, “Changing world and the US”, http:~/~/www.lompocrecord.com/news/opinion/editorial/article_65b89d98-2e91-11e0-bf9b-001cc4c002e0.html, accessed 10-23-11, AFB] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) On the other hand, Obama and just … by that a steady supply of oil. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) High oil prices increase food prices – causes global starvation (% class="MsoNormal" %) Robertson, Petroleum Economist, 11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Helen, April, Petroleum Economist, “Poor feel the pain as crude surges”, Lexis] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) And as the price of crude oil continues to … benefits, including food subsidies. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) That ensures global instability and war (% class="MsoNormal" %) Brown, founder of the Worldwatch Institute and the Earth Policy Institute, 9 (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Lester R, Scientific American, May, Volume 300, Issue 5, “Can Food Shortages Bring Down Civilization?”, p. 50-7, Academic Search Complete, AFB] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) The biggest threat to global stability is … fall will threaten the stability of global civilization itself. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Wisner, External Affairs at AIG, 9-13-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Frank, “Reparing the Egypt-Israel Breach,” 9-13-11, http:~/~/www.cfr.org/egypt/repairing-egypt-israel-breach/p25841?cid=rss-analysisbriefbackgroundersexp-repairing_the_egypt_israel_bre-091311, accessed 9-15-11) PM (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) The military has no desire to … the issue of Palestine, would like peace to continue. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Government backlash to the plan smothers solvency (% class="MsoNormal" %) Youngs, director general of FRIDE and assistant professor at the University of Warwick, UK, 10 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Richard, FRIDE is an independent think-tank based in Madrid, focused on issues related to democracy and human rights; peace and security; and humanitarian action and development, June, “How to Revitalise Democracy Assistance: Recipients’ Views” http:~/~/www.fride.org/download/WP100_How_revitalise_democracy_ENG_jul2010.pdf, pages 8-9, accessed 9-2-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) This lesson has been taken on board. … organisations agitate for succession. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) The public says no to the plan (% class="MsoNormal" %) AAI, Arab American Institute, 7-18-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (The AAI is a non-profit, nonpartisan national leadership organization; AAI was created to nurture and encourage the direct participation of Arab Americans in political and civic life in the United States, “America in Trouble in the Middle East: Obama Understands, but GOP Gloats,” http:~/~/www.aaiusa.org/dr-zogby/entry/america-in-trouble-in-the-middle-east-obama-understands-but-gop-gloats/, accessed 9-1-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) What our respondents tell us is the …are treading on dangerous ground. (% class="MsoNormal" %) *Countries polled = Morocco, Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) EXT – Extension of Regime (% class="MsoNormal" %) CSOs don’t boost democratic desires – they’re just extensions of regimes (% class="MsoNormal" %) Tessler et al, political science professor and vice-provost for International Affairs at the University of Michigan, 7-25-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Mark, Darwish Al-Emadi is director of the Social and Economic Survey Research Institute at Qatar University, where he previously served as dean of the College of Humanities and Social Sciences, Abdoulaye Diop is director of Research at the Social and Economic Survey Research Institute at Qatar University, Justin Gengler is a Ph.D. candidate in Political Science at the University in Michigan and former Fulbright Fellow to Bahrain, Foreign Policy, “Civil society and democratization in the Arab Gulf,” http:~/~/mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/07/25/civil_society_and_democratization_in_the_arab_gulf, accessed 7-26-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Qatar has been a notable exception to the wave … Qatar does not seem to be an incubator of democracy. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) 2NC – CSOs Fail (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Plan fails – stifles transition – 2 reasons – conditions on CSOs prevent democratic development, and CSO funding triggers brain drain from political parties, collapsing entire political sector (% class="MsoNormal" %) Meisburger, Asia Foundation Elections and Political Processes director, 10-26-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Tim, Democracy Digest, “Emerging democracies’ ‘weakest link’”, http:~/~/www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/10/emerging-democracies-weakest-link/, accessed 10-29-11, AFB] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Some donors prefer to work with civil … in politics, the entire political sector may suffer. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) EXT – Dependency (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Aid leads to dependency – kills sustainability (% class="MsoNormal" %) Barkan, Senior Associate, Center for Strategic and International Studies and Professor Emeritus, University of Iowa, 11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Joel, “Perceptions of Democracy Assistance,” http:~/~/www.un.org/democracyfund/Docs/PDAseminar.pdf, page vii-viii, accessed 9-2-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Organizations that receive DA are highly … that support democratization worldwide (Table 14). (% class="MsoNormal" %) • Perceptions of Democracy Assistance presents the findings from an online survey of 1,473 leaders of organizations that received democracy assistance (DA) between January 1, 2008, and September 1, 2010. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Timeframe/probability – the risk of Chinese miscalc is growing with leadership change next year. (% class="MsoNormal" %) Auslin, resident scholar in Asian studies at the American Enterprise Institute, 10-25-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Michael, “Asian Anxiety,” http:~/~/www.nytimes.com/2011/10/26/opinion/26iht-edauslin26.html, accessed 10-27-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) For all the increased joint training between …unfortunately, may well rest with Beijing. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) AT: No War – Interdependence (% class="MsoNormal" %) Interdependence doesn’t apply to Chinese miscalc – China perceives US distraction as a lack of commitment and they take advantage of it by being more aggressive in the region – that sparks a US draw in that escalates. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Maintaining the balance of power is key prevent Chinese miscalc – that escalates. (% class="MsoNormal" %) Friedberg, professor of politics and international affairs at Princeton, 9-4-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Aaron L., “China’s Challenge at Sea,” http:~/~/www.nytimes.com/2011/09/05/opinion/chinas-challenge-at-sea.html?_r=1, accessed 9-30-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) If the United States and its Asian friends look to … does not have to shoulder the entire burden of preserving the Asian power balance, but it must lead. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Crisis reaction is unpredictable – escalation is likely (% class="MsoNormal" %) Stares, Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow for Conflict Prevention and Director of the Center for Preventive Action, 11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Paul B., September, “Managing Instability on China’s Periphery,” http:~/~/www.cfr.org/china/managing-instability-chinas-periphery/p25838, pages7-8, accessed 10-10-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Crises are inherently volatile events. …jointly, others will happen unilaterally but in a mutually supportive way. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Uniqueness (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Uniqueness – US pivoting to Asia now—Obama demonstrating it’s his diplomatic priority (% class="MsoNormal" %) Sheridan, Australian Foreign editor, 11-12-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Greg, The Australian, “Big guns united on Asia strategy”, www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/big-guns-united-on-asia-strategy/story-e6frgd0x-1226193105690, accessed 11-13-11, AFB] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) This was underlined by a powerful … slackening of US strategic commitment dossier. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Obama is focused on Asia now (% class="MsoNormal" %) Talev, Bloomberg, 11-11-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) Margaret “Asia Ascending Drives Obama Message as America’s First Pacific President,” http:~/~/www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-11/asia-ascending-drives-obama-message-as-america-s-first-pacific-president.html, accessed 11-11-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) President Barack Obama, who calls …and four boyhood years in Indonesia. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Obama will overcome pressure to come home now, which would undercut commitment (% class="MsoNormal" %) Clarky, McClatchy Newspapers, 11-11-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Lesley, “Obama's 9 days in Asia aim to assert growing U.S. stakes there,” http:~/~/www.kansascity.com/2011/11/09/3257098/obamas-9-days-in-asia-aim-to-assert.html, accessed 11-11-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) President Barack Obama will leave Friday on a nine-day … the Americans are interested in Asia, but they're not consistently engaged." (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Multiple warrants prove his focused going into the meetings – (% class="MsoNormal" %) Multiple initiatives prove (% class="MsoNormal" %) Hachigian, Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress, 11-9-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Nina, “President Obama’s Asia Overdrive,” http:~/~/www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/11/obama_asia_overdrive.html, accessed 11-10-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) When Asia’s leaders gather in Honolulu on Saturday …new leadership to urge liberalization there. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Increased engagement (% class="MsoNormal" %) Bohan and Eckert, Reuters, 11-1-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Caren and Paul, “RPT-Obama to shift spotlight to Asia at Hawaii summit,” http:~/~/www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/01/obama-asia-idUSN1E79T04A20111101, accessed 11-4-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) President Barack Obama, whose foreign policy agenda … gathering in Honolulu that the focus on Asia has not been sidetracked by other diplomatic priorities. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) SKFTA and new appointments (% class="MsoNormal" %) Bohan and Eckert, Reuters, 11-1-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Caren and Paul, “RPT-Obama to shift spotlight to Asia at Hawaii summit,” http:~/~/www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/01/obama-asia-idUSN1E79T04A20111101, accessed 11-4-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Despite the trip postponements, there has been a … Stephen Bosworth as special envoy to North Korea. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Clinton proves (% class="MsoNormal" %) O'Sullivan, VOA News, 11-10-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Mike, “Clinton: 21st Century will Focus on Asia-Pacific,” http:~/~/www.voanews.com/english/news/usa/Clinton-21st-Century-will-Focus-on-Asia-Pacific-133654028.html, accessed 11-10-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said …economies, including India and APEC-member China. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) AT: Non-Unique – Supercommittee (% class="MsoNormal" %) No impact – he’ll be back in time for the deadline and his assurances check allied fears (% class="MsoNormal" %) Robinson, Voice of America News, 11-9-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Dan, “Obama Asia-Pacific Trip Part of US 'Refocus' on Region,” http:~/~/www.voanews.com/english/news/usa/Obama-Asia-Pacific-Trip-Part-of-US-Refocus-on-Region-133572823.html, accessed 11-10-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Mr. Obama is scheduled to return to Washington … role in the region, even during a time of tight federal budgets. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) 2NC Link (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Link – Foreign policy normal means requires spending finite political capital to pass the plan (% class="MsoNormal" %) Naim, Foreign Policy editor, 98 (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Moises, FOREIGN POLICY, Winter 97/98, “Clinton's foreign policy: A victim of globalization?”, p. 41, AFB] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Often overlooked amid all the handwringing … spent solving problems, thinking about the future, or forging better relations with foreign counterparts. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Multiple Links – (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) 1) Obama’s focus – the plan requires Obama signature and press conferences – which distracts him in the middle of the Asian Summits – that’s 1NC Naim. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Democracy assistance depletes diplomatic capital and focus from other efforts – forces US to assuage regional allies (% class="MsoNormal" %) Singh, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Michael, 4-2-11, “Democratic Change in the Arab Region: State Policy and the Dynamics of Civil Society,” http:~/~/www.scribd.com/doc/59127297/Seminar-English-Report, accessed 11-8-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) While top-down pressure on governments … not in one-off speeches – that democracy promotion policy truly resides. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) US diplomacy is stretched thin – democracy assistance creates zero-sum trade offs (% class="MsoNormal" %) Kelemen, Diplomacy Correspondent - NPR, 11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Michele, 8-16-11, “Hillary Clinton: U.S. Diplomacy Is Stretched Thin,” www.npr.org/2011/08/16/139678323/hillary-clinton-u-s-diplomacy-is-stretched-thin, accessed 11-8-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Hillary Clinton: U.S. Diplomacy Is Stretched Thin … and we are going to have to choose very wisely where we intervene and what we do." (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Diplomatic capital is finite - the plan forces tradeoffs (% class="MsoNormal" %) Anderson, Professor of Economics, Montana State University, and Gladwell, Research Associate, Political Economy Research Center (PERC), 2K (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Terry, Executive Director, Political Economy Research Center (PERC), Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and J. Bishop, “The Greening of Foreign Policy,” http:~/~/www.perc.org/pdf/ps20.pdf, accessed 11-8-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Greater international environmental regulation … vital resources, and ensuring access to foreign economies.” (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) 2) Allied perceptions – Asian leaders went to bed last night satisfied with month of US engagement and the APEC meeting– the plan means they wake up tomorrow hearing Obama just expanded democracy assistance to the Middle East – the plan would be a slap in the face. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Asian leaders are weary – the plan would be perceived as the US being distracted. (% class="MsoNormal" %) Bohan and Eckert, Reuters, 11-1-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Caren and Paul, “RPT-Obama to shift spotlight to Asia at Hawaii summit,” http:~/~/www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/01/obama-asia-idUSN1E79T04A20111101, accessed 11-4-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) President Barack Obama, whose foreign policy … gathering in Honolulu that the focus on Asia has not been sidetracked by other diplomatic priorities. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Asian leaders empirically backlash over lack of focus at key meetings (% class="MsoNormal" %) Hachigian, Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress, 11-9-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Nina, “President Obama’s Asia Overdrive,” http:~/~/www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/11/obama_asia_overdrive.html, accessed 11-10-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) All this activity is especially dramatic following eight … economic ties to boost American trade, job creation, and long-term economic prosperity at home. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Allies perceive focus on MENA as zero-sum with them (% class="MsoNormal" %) Sullivan, Research Fellow at AEI and Program Manager of the AEI Center for Defense Studies, 10 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Tim, 11-16-10, “Deter and Assure,” http:~/~/www.aei.org/paper/100157, accessed 11-8-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) The United States’ core bilateral alliances … is preoccupied with challenges elsewhere—namely in Iraq and Afghanistan. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Obama has boosted allied perceptions – but they’re still weary about the US getting drawn into MENA – Bush prove our focus links (% class="MsoNormal" %) Heydarian, Manila-based foreign affairs analyst focusing on international security and development issues, 10-10-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Javad, his articles have been featured or cited in Foreign Policy in Focus, Asia Times, UPI, the Transnational Institute and the Tehran Times, among other publications, “Obama’s B-Grade on ASEAN,” http:~/~/the-diplomat.com/new-leaders-forum/2011/10/10/obamas-b-grade-on-asean/, accessed 11-8-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Compared with the previous US government, the Obama … competitor, to rapidly expand its political and economic influence across the region. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) MENA policies distract from East Asia (% class="MsoNormal" %) Koga, Ph.D. candidate in International Relations at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, 11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Kei, Jan.-Mar., “The US and East Asian Regional Security Architecture: Building a Regional Security Nexus on Hub-and-Spoke,” Asian Perspective Vol. 35, No. 1, 2011, https:~/~/www.rienner.com/uploads/asianperspectivesample.pdf, accessed 11-8-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) This problem stems from four attributes of current US … China, which naturally affects US influence in the long term. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Internal Link – Every Meeting Key (% class="MsoNormal" %) Every meeting matters (% class="MsoNormal" %) Clinton, Secretary of State, 11-10-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Hilary, “America’s Pacific Century,” http:~/~/www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2011/11/176999.htm, accessed 11-11-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) That’s what we learned from our transatlantic experiment. … greater numbers. And this region can become an even stronger force for global progress. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) AT: Aid Now (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) No aid now – no policy initiatives announced (% class="MsoNormal" %) Danin, Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, (% class="MsoNormal" %) 11-8-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Robert M., “More Questions Than Answers in Secretary Clinton’s Remarks on the Arab Uprisings,” http:~/~/blogs.cfr.org/danin/2011/11/08/more-questions-than-answers-in-secretary-clinton%E2%80%99s-remarks-on-the-arab-uprisings/, accessed 11-8-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Third, Secretary Clinton deferred the answer to the … question yet to be answered by the Obama administration. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) No aid to Egypt yet (% class="MsoNormal" %) Rogin, Foreign Policy, 11-3-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Josh, “State Department training Islamic political parties in Egypt,” http:~/~/thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/11/03/state_department_training_islamic_political_parties_in_egypt, accessed 11-4-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Taylor led a similar office in the 1990s that …World Bank ~-~- loans that come with strings attached. (% class="MsoNormal" %) *Taylor – William Taylor, the State Department's director of its new office for Middle East Transitions (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) No aid has been delivered (% class="MsoNormal" %) Washington Post (Editorial), 9-28-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (“Why Egypt needs the international aid it was promised,” http:~/~/www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-egypt-needs-the-international-aid-it-was-promised/2011/09/28/gIQAiIFg5K_print.html, accessed 10-18-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) FOR MONTHS Western leaders have … generation of young people who drove the revolution, some 40 percent of whom are unemployed. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) US influence is key to check CCP collapse (% class="MsoNormal" %) Barnett, senior managing director of Enterra Solutions LLC, 11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Thomas P.M., contributing editor for Esquire magazine, 9-20-11, “The New Rules: China Still Needs U.S. in Global Security Role,” http:~/~/www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/6445/the-new-rules-china-still-needs-u-s-in-global-security-role, accessed 10-9-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) As a result, Beijing is running a race with itself ~-~- … to be shattered in any potential crisis ~-~- an outcome that would surely torpedo China's single-party rule. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Instability escalates to nuclear war (% class="MsoNormal" %) Yee Prof Politics and IR ‘2, Professor of Politics and International Relations at the Hong Kong Baptist University and Storey, Lecturer in Defence Studies at Deakin University, 02 (Herbert Yee, and Ian Storey, Lecturer in Defence Studies at Deakin University, 2002, “The China Threat: Perceptions, Myths and Reality,” p5) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) The fourth factor contributing to the perception of a China threat is … warlords. From this perspective, a disintegrating China would also pose a threat to its neighbours and the world. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Impact – SCS War (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) US presence is key to check South China Sea conflicts from escalating (% class="MsoNormal" %) Denmark, CNAS Fellow, and Kliman, CNAS Visiting Fellow, 11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Abraham M., Daniel M., Center for a New American Security, “How to Get Southeast Asia Right,” http:~/~/the-diplomat.com/2011/02/02/how-to-get-southeast-asia-right/?all=true, accessed 10-9-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) And there’s another reason the United States …, this code of conduct isn’t binding and lacks legal enforcement measures. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) 2NC – Can’t Solve Cred – Palestine (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Extend that they can’t solve credibility – Palestine outweighs – Obama’s speech at the UN has created a fatal flaw that kills any US cred in the region – It severely compromised our credibility – that’s Brenner. Prefer this evidence – Brenner is a IA professor. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Action on Palestine is a prereq (% class="MsoNormal" %) Hamid, Brookings Institution Saban Center for the Middle East Policy fellow, 10 (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Shadi, Brookings Doha Center deputy director, Democracy Journal, Winter, “The Cairo Conundrum” http:~/~/www.democracyjournal.org/pdf/15/Hamid.pdf, p.39, accessed 9-22-11, TAP] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) All of this is compounded by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, … the United States will find it easier to tackle other problems. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Make cred unsustainable (% class="MsoNormal" %) Atallah and Levy, New America Foundation, 11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Amjad and Daniel, “America, Welcome to the Era of Arab Democracy” http:~/~/www.newamerica.net/publications/articles/2011/america_welcome_to_the_era_of_arab_democracy_44467, accessed 9-24-11, TAP] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) The best option for getting this right and being … unsustainably burdensome in an era of Arab democracy. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Can’t solve for a generation (% class="MsoNormal" %) Seale, British writer on the Middle East, reported for Reuters and The Observer, 9-29-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Patrick, “America’s Foreign Policy Fiasco,” http:~/~/the-diplomat.com/2011/09/29/america%E2%80%99s-foreign-policy-fiasco/?print=yes, accessed 9-29-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Barack Obama’s once promising foreign policy has been … one wonders, is in charge of US policy? (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Cred can’t be repaired (% class="MsoNormal" %) Alafrangi, Opinion Editor at Gulf News, 9-10-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Manal, “America needs to improve its image,” http:~/~/gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/america-needs-to-improve-its-image-1.863767, accessed 9-12-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) America’s foreign wars cost trillions and resulted in the …which amounts to injustice, that will continue to haunt the US. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Peace process is the KEY to credibility (% class="MsoNormal" %) Esposito, Georgetown University international relations professor and Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding founding director, 7-26-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) [John, “When Words Fail: Rhetoric vs. Action in American Public Diplomacy” http:~/~/www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=47349, accessed 8-24-11, TAP] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) The lack of progress in Palestine uniquely … steadfastly assuring Israel’s security, the U.S. needs to let Netanyahu feel Israel’s growing isolation in the international community. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Cred collapse inevitable – Palestine vote (% class="MsoNormal" %) Saad, GCC/Middle East Editor for Gulf News, 9-11-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Layelle, “Arab Spring killed Al Qaida ideology,” http:~/~/gulfnews.com/in-focus/9-11/arab-spring-killed-al-qaida-ideology-1.864179, accessed 9-10-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) According to Shaikh it is a mixed bag. "Some countries are … happening, it will be a huge setback for US standing in the region. (% class="MsoNormal" %) *Salman Shaikh – director of the Brookings Doha Centre (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Huge alt cause to cred – Palestine (% class="MsoNormal" %) Dorsey, Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, 8-26-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (James M., Eurasia Review, “US And The Middle East: PR Fiasco Looms For Obama – Analysis,” http:~/~/www.eurasiareview.com/26082011-us-and-the-middle-east-pr-fiasco-looms-for-obama-analysis/, accessed 9-12-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) COME SEPTEMBER the United States will face a major public … that it launched with the president’s widely acclaimed speech in Cairo in June 2009. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) 2NC – CSOs Fail (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Plan fails – stifles transition – 2 reasons – conditions on CSOs prevent democratic development, and CSO funding triggers brain drain from political parties, collapsing entire political sector (% class="MsoNormal" %) Meisburger, Asia Foundation Elections and Political Processes director, 10-26-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Tim, Democracy Digest, “Emerging democracies’ ‘weakest link’”, http:~/~/www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/10/emerging-democracies-weakest-link/, accessed 10-29-11, AFB] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Some donors prefer to work with civil society organizations …in politics, the entire political sector may suffer. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) 2NC – Dependency (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Democracy aid creates hollow democracies, dependent on donors. (% class="MsoNormal" %) Santiso, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies grad student, 1 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Carlos, is currently Sector Manager of the Governance Division at the African Development Bank, based in Tunis since 2007, June, “INTERNATIONAL CO-OPERATION FOR DEMOCRACY AND GOOD GOVERNANCE: MOVING TOWARD A SECOND GENERATION?” European Journal of Development Research, vol.13, no.1, pp. 14-5, http:~/~/www.eldis.org/fulltext/secondgeneration.pdf, accessed 9-2-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) A particular concern of recent efforts to promote …elections to resolve a political crisis. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Dependency impact- kills opposition legitimacy (% class="MsoNormal" %) Rakner et al, Chr. Michelsen Institute, 7 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Lise, Chr. Michelsen Institute is an independent, non-profit research institution and an international centre in policy-oriented and applied development research, Alina Menocal, Overseas Development Institute, and Verena Fritz, Overseas Development Institute= ODI is the UK’s leading independent think tank on international develop- ment and humanitarian issues, August, "Democratisation's Third Wave and the Challenges of Democratic Deepening: Assessing International Democracy Assistance and Lessons Learned,” page 48, www.odi.org.uk/resources/download/201.pdf, accessed 9-2-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Achieving a balance between providing … systems to absorb new policies and institutions. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) 2NC – Liberalization-Repression Strategy (% class="MsoNormal" %) CSOs create pressure that just causes regime to yield toothless reforms that eventually cause more repression (% class="MsoNormal" %) Yom, Deutsch Fellow in the Department of Government at Harvard University, 5 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Sean L., December, “CIVIL SOCIETY AND DEMOCRATIZATION IN THE ARAB WORLD,” Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 9, No. 4, http:~/~/meria.idc.ac.il/journal/2005/issue4/Yom%20pdf.pdf, pages 22-5, accessed 8-1-11, CMM) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) By the first Gulf War, economists and political … structural dynamics that affect its will and capacity to rule. (% class="MsoNormal" %)