Oil prices are down on the weak economy and increased supply – but the Saudis budget is stable now.
The National (UAE), 9-30-11
(Hadeel al Sayegh, “Oil price forecast cut due to growing supply,” http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/industry-insights/markets/oil-price-forecast-cut-due-to-growing-supply, accessed 9-29-11, CMM)
Morgan Stanley cut its Brent forecast AND at National Bank of Abu Dhabi.
Saudi link – decentralization – they fear new groups on their border
Stuster, National Security Researcher at the Center for New American Security, ‘11
(J Dana, “What can the US really do for Yemen,” 9-27-11, , accessed 10-24-11) PM
With all the focus on the AND , before Yemen falls apart completely.
New debt causes massive internal instability.
Gay, an employee of a small D.C. foreign policy think tank and a graduate student studying international relations at Syracuse University, 7-11-11
(John Allen, “Saudi Arabia: The Cost of Empire,” http://johnallengay.wordpress.com/2011/07/11/saudi-arabia-the-cost-of-empire/, accessed 9-10-11, CMM)
Saudi Arabia’s state expenditures for this AND danger to the Saudi political system.
Decentralization causes Southern secession and instability
International Crisis Group ‘11
(“Breaking Point? Yemen’s Southern Question,” 10-20-11, , accessed 10-24-11) PM
The problem is that there is AND referendum on the South’s ultimate status.
AQAP resilient – only military invasion would solve
Boot, CFR Senior Fellow, 10-2-11
(Max, “Yemen After Awlaki,” 10-2-11, , accessed 10-20-11) PM
It remains to be seen whether AND known as the Sons of Iraq.
Instability inevitable – water crisis
Arnold, VOA News, 10-21-11
(David, “Yemen’s Hunger for Qat Could Create National Thirst,” 10-21-11, , accessed 10-24-11) PM
Whether Yemen resolves its leadership stalemate AND 90 percent is a reliable figure.”
No internal link – their evidence assumes a successful terrorist attack which there is no conclusive evidence on
Conventional retaliation more likely
Sanger, and Shanker, NY Times, 5/8/2007
[David, Thom, "U.S. Debates Deterrence for Nuclear Terrorism," http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/08/washington/08nuke.html?_r=3&pagewanted=all&oref=slogin, 1/24]
Among the subjects of the meeting AND retaliation, whether military or diplomatic.
Even conventional retaliation against civilians wouldn’t happen
Gerecht, AEI resident fellow, 7-10-06
[Reuel Marc, "Cognitive Dissonance: The State of America’s Iran Policy," http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.24637,filter.all/pub_detail.asp]
It seems unthinkable that the United AND terrorism-fond radical Islamic states.