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Mac MS Aff

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#	Entry	Date
	Texas Notes Tournament: Sample Tournament \| Round: 1 \| Opponent: Sample Team \| Judge: Sample Judge <p>This is a new partnership-see Mac GS for positions. We'll post new stuff on this wiki</p> Use the button to Add an Entry. Use the second box for cites formatted with wiki syntax or plain text, such as that exported from Verbatim 4.	10/26/11
	Critical Yemen Aff V Loyola Tournament: \| Round: \| Opponent: \| Judge: <p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:10.0pt;margin-right:0in; margin-bottom:0in;margin-left:.3in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:center; page-break-before:always;mso-pagination:widow-orphan lines-together;page-break-after: avoid;mso-outline-level:2"><b><u><span style="font-size:16.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"">Contention One is Inherency<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top:10.0pt;mso-pagination:widow-orphan lines-together; page-break-after:avoid;mso-outline-level:3"><b><span style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:major-bidi;background:white">US security assistance is used against the protesters in Yemen<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:15.0pt"><b><span style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt">Zunes 11<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:15.0pt"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Georgia","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";color:black;background:white">Stephen Zunes Professor of Politics and Chair of Mid-Eastern Studies at the University of San Francisco, Yemen on the Edge, 5/17/11 </span><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/stephen-zunes/yemen-on-the-edge_b_861759.html"><span style="color:blue">http://www.huffingtonpost.com/stephen-zunes/yemen-on-the-edge_b_861759.html</span></a><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";color:black; background:white"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:15.0pt"><span style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";color:black;background:white">Despite </span><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2011/mar/21/yemen-army-commanders-defect" target="_hplink"><span style="border-top-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-bottom-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-top-color: windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-top-width: 1pt; border-right-width: 1pt; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-width: 1pt; padding-top: 0in; padding-right: 0in; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 0in; ">diplomatic cables going back as far as 2005</span></a><span style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt"> indicating</span><span style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";color:black;background:white"> that Saleh could potentially face a popular pro-democracy uprising, the Obama administration appears to have been caught completely off-guard. U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates acknowledged that Washington had not planned for an era without Saleh. As one former ambassador to Yemen </span><a href="http://www.ndu.edu/inss/docUploaded/YAPHE_REVOLUTION_Event_Report.pdf" target="_hplink"><span style="border-top-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-bottom-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-top-color: windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-top-width: 1pt; border-right-width: 1pt; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-width: 1pt; padding-top: 0in; padding-right: 0in; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 0in; ">put it in back in March</span></a><span style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";color:black;background:white">, "For right now, he's our guy."<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:15.0pt"><span style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";color:black; background:white">Since then, </span><span class="StyleBoldUnderline"><span style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow">the Obama .....</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 19px; ">t from well-armed people at the top but from the consent of the people.</span></p> <p class="tag">Despite all the money and rhetoric, the US and the international community don’t consider Yemen a priority which is allowing violence against protesters to continue <o:p></o:p></p> <p class="tag">Lynch 9/19 <o:p></o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt">Posted By </span><a href="http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/blog/2202"><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-decoration: none; ">Marc Lynch</span></a><span style="font-size:12.0pt"> is associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University. <span><![if gte vml 1]><v:shapetype id="_x0000_t75" coordsize="21600,21600" o:spt="75" o:preferrelative="t" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" filled="f" stroked="f"> <v:stroke joinstyle="miter"/> <v:formulas> <v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"/> <v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"/> <v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"/> <v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"/> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"/> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"/> <v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"/> <v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"/> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"/> <v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"/> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"/> <v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"/> </v:formulas> <v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"/> <o:lock v:ext="edit" aspectratio="t"/> </v:shapetype><v:shape id="Picture_x0020_1" o:spid="_x0000_i1025" type="#_x0000_t75" alt="Description: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/images/091022_meta_block.gif" style='width:10.5pt;height:12.75pt;visibility:visible;mso-wrap-style:square'> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\Users\test\AppData\Local\Temp\msohtmlclip1\01\clip_image001.png" o:title="091022_meta_block"/> </v:shape><![endif]><!~~[if !vml]~~><img border="0" width="14" height="17" src="file:///C:/Users/test/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtmlclip1/01/clip_image001.png" alt="Description: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/images/091022_meta_block.gif" v:shapes="Picture_x0020_1"><!~~[endif]~~></span> Monday, September 19, 2011 - 11:21 AM </span><a href="http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/19/the_costs_of_ignoring_yemen" title="The costs of ignoring Yemen"><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-decoration: none; ">The costs of ignoring Yemen</span></a> <a href="http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/19/the_costs_of_ignoring_yemen"><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-decoration: none; ">http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/19/the_costs_of_ignoring_yemen</span></a><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span class="StyleBoldUnderline"><span style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow">It has been difficult to...</span></span><span class="StyleBoldUnderline"><span style="background:yellow;mso-highlight: yellow">t neglect in <o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span class="StyleBoldUnderline"><span style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow">blood.</span>   <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:10.0pt;margin-right:0in; margin-bottom:0in;margin-left:.3in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:center; page-break-before:always;mso-pagination:widow-orphan lines-together;page-break-after: avoid;mso-outline-level:2"><b><u><span style="font-size:16.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"">Contention Two is Fear<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.3in"><span style="font-family:"AGaramond-Regular","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:AGaramond-Regular"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:13.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt">The status quo is scared of the possibilities presented by the revolutions in the Middle East-this leads us to prop up corrupt and brutal regimes as part of a racist decision calculus in the name of stability <o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:13.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt">Yezza ‘11<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Trebuchet MS","sans-serif"; color:#333333;background:white">Ceasefire's editor-in-chief, Hich Yezza</span></i> Editorial Real Arab democracy Vs mythical “regional stability” Posted on Saturday, February 5, 2011 0:00 - 7 Comments<o:p></o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt; background:white">However, </span><b><u>one of the ....</u></b><b><u> expense must end now.</u></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:13.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:13.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt">The fear of US involvement in the Middle East is counterproductive and entrenches Orientalism<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:13.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt">Sadiki ‘11<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Larbi Sadiki, i<i><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";color:black;background:white;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold">s a Senior Lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University of Exeter, and author of Arab Democratization: Elections without Democracy (Oxford University Press, 2009) and The Search for Arab Democracy: Discourses and Counter-Discourses (Columbia University Press, 2004).</span></i>The mathematics of the Arab Spring, Last Modified: 06 Jun 2011 16:33<o:p></o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt; background:white">Two fundamental .... </span><b><u><span style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow"> incapacity to speak back.</span></u></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi">The impact is mass violence and genocide<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:13.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi">Munjid, 11</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi"> (3/27, Achmad, president of the Nahdlatul Ulama community in North America, “Overcoming Islamophobia in the United States,” </span><a href="http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/03/27/overcoming-islamophobia-united-states.html"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; text-decoration: none; ">http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/03/27/overcoming-islamophobia-united-states.html</span></a><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi">)<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.3in"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi">Remember, as institutionalized hatred,.... </span><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi"> consequences are. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span class="StyleStyleBold12pt"><span style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt">The starting ..... </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; ">h speed or ease.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:13.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt">The problem with democracy assistance is not that we are overcommitted to “liberal values”, but that we are not actually committed to them. <o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:13.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt">Youngs ‘11<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"">Richard Youngs i<span style="background:white">s director general of FRIDE. He is also assistant professor at the University of Warwick in the UK </span>January 2011 the maladies of liberal democracy promotion<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><u>Current <span style="background:yellow;mso-highlight: yellow">international....</span></u></b><span style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt"> that sap the desired ‘democratisation of democracy’.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">Trying to “stabilize” the Middle East is counterproductive-by trying to prevent it we only ensure more violent outbreaks in the future<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">Taleb and Blyth 2011<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB is Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University's Polytechnic Institute and the author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.MARK BLYTH is Professor of International Political Economy at Brown University.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <table class="MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tbody><tr> <td valign="top" style="padding:0in 2.25pt 0in 0in"> <p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">The Black Swan of Cairo: How Suppressing Volatility Makes the World Less Predictable and More Dangerous</span></i><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"> May/June 2011, Foreign Affairs<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td valign="top" style="padding:0in 0in 0in 0in"> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.3in"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top:0in;margin-right:.2in;margin-bottom:0in; margin-left:.2in;margin-bottom:.0001pt"><span style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">Both the recent financial crisis .... </span><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><span style="background:yellow;mso-highlight: yellow">shared by all complex systems.</span></span></u></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.3in"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">We must embrace instability-allowing for instability to occur regularly results in less volatility <o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:13.5pt;vertical-align:baseline"><b><span style="font-size:13.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"">Taleb and<span>  </span>Blyth ‘11<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB is Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University's Polytechnic Institute and the author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. MARK BLYTH is Professor of International Political Economy at Brown University.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <table class="MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tbody><tr> <td valign="top" style="padding:0in 2.25pt 0in 0in"> <p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">The Black Swan of Cairo: How Suppressing Volatility Makes the World Less Predictable and More Dangerous</span></i><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"> May/June 2011, Foreign Affairs<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> <td valign="top" style="padding:0in 0in 0in 0in"> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.3in"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top:0in;margin-right:.2in;margin-bottom:0in; margin-left:.2in;margin-bottom:.0001pt"><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri">Variation is information. ....</span></u></b><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri"> guarantee solid peace alone.</span></u></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">The politics of fear that dominate US narrative about the Middle East is not rational and drives people to make irrational decisions<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:13.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">Sparks ‘03<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">Chris Sparks <i>London Metropolitan University</i> Liberalism, Terrorism and the Politics <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">of Fear P O L I T I C S :<span>   </span>2 0 0 3<span>   </span>V O L<span>   </span>2 3 ( 3 ) ,<span>   </span>2 0 0 – 2 0 6<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.3in"><span style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri">The current </span><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow">fearfulness.....</span></u></b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; "> made signiﬁcant electoral gains.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:10.0pt;margin-right:0in; margin-bottom:0in;margin-left:.3in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:center; page-break-before:always;mso-pagination:widow-orphan lines-together;page-break-after: avoid;mso-outline-level:2"><b><u><span style="font-size:16.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"">Contention Three is Security<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">Security dominates the US agenda in Yemen-literally every shortcoming of US policy is caused by its security focus<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:13.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">Phillips ‘11<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.5in;text-indent:-.5in;background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;color:black">Phillips, Sarah. (is a lecturer at the Centre for International Security studies at the University<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.5in;text-indent:-.5in;background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;color:black">of Sydney) <i>Yemen and the Politics of Permanent Crisis</i>. London: International Institute fo<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.5in;text-indent:-.5in;background:white"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;color:black">Strategic Studies (IISS), 2011. Print.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.3in"><span style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"AGaramond-Regular","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:AGaramond-Regular">Like the Pakistani .....</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: AGaramond-Regular, serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; "> there’s no question about it.’</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:13.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:13.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">Security is the universal benchmark to which all other objectives are compared<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:13.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">Boucek 2010<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">[Dr. Christopher, Associate, Middle East Program Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Written Testimony U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs February 3, 2010 YEMEN ON THE BRINK: IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. POLICY, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/0203_transcript_boucek_testimony.pdf]<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top:0in;margin-right:.2in;margin-bottom:0in; margin-left:.2in;margin-bottom:.0001pt"><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">It is essential ... </span></u></b><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">improving domestic security.<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">The political enframing of counterterrorism as natural and inevitable provides the justification for the violence of the international arena<span>  </span><o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">Burke</span></b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:14.0pt;font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">,</span></b><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"> Senior Lecturer in Politics and IR, University of New South Wales, </span><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">2007</span></b><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"> Anthony, Theory & Event, 10.2<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.3in"><span style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:13.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri">My argument here, whilst .....</span><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><span style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow"> dysfunctional or chaotic.</span></span></u></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.3in"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:13.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">The drive for ontological certainty closes off the ability to contest our truth claims ~~guarantees infinite violence <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>~~ <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">Burke</span></b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:14.0pt;font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">,</span></b><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"> Senior Lecturer in Politics and IR, University of New South Wales, </span><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">2007</span></b><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"> Anthony, Theory & Event, 10.2</span><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.3in"><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri">I see</span></u></b><span style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"> such</span><span style="mso-bidi-font-size:13.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"> </span><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow">a drive....</span></u></b><span style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:13.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri"> </span><b><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">it permeates being.</span></u></b><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="tag"><span>The ethic of the status quo is based on a technology of domination – the certainty of their impact claims is not only a façade but also an attempt to prevent examination of foundational truth claims-this makes violence inevitable <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi">Burke</span></b><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 14.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi">,</span></b><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi"> Senior Lecturer in Politics and IR, University of New South Wales, </span><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi">2007</span></b><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi"> Anthony, Theory & Event, 10.2</span><span style="mso-bidi-font-size:13.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.3in"><span style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:13.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi">The epistemology of violence .....</span><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;background:yellow;mso-highlight: yellow"> to be made.</span></u></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="tag"><span style="background:white">Securitization is based on a violent hatred of otherness and unpredictability, leading to a nihilism that kills value to life<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span>James </span><span class="cite"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi">Der Derian,</span></span><span> “The value of security: Hobbes, Marx, Nietzsche, and Baudrillard,” The Political Subject of Violence, </span><span class="cite"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi">1993</span></span><span>, pp. 102-105<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span class="underline"><span style="font-size:14.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow">The desire for .... </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 19px; line-height: 26px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0); ">all that makes life worthwhile.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">Thus the plan: <o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">The United States federal government should transfer all security and military assistance funds for Yemen to democracy assistance funding for all opposition and civil society groups in Yemen. <o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.3in"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <h2><span>Contention Four is Solvency <o:p></o:p></span></h2> <p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><b><span style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri">The US must reorient its policy toward Yemen by cutting its security assistance<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><b><span style="font-size:13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri">Al-Tamimi ‘11<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri">By </span><a href="http://www.americanthinker.com/aymenn_jawad_al-tamimi/"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; text-decoration: none; ">Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi</span></a><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"> </span><span style="font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;color:#222222;background:white">is a student at Brasenose College, Oxford University, and an intern at the Middle East Forum.</span><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"> February 11, 2011 What to do about Yemen? </span><a href="http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/02/what_to_do_about_yemen.html"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; color:blue">http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/02/what_to_do_about_yemen.html</span></a><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.3in"><span style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri">Currently, </span><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow">the main financial .....</span></u></b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; "> at the hands of the current wave of protests in Yemen.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.3in"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.3in"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top:10.0pt;mso-pagination:widow-orphan lines-together; page-break-after:avoid;mso-outline-level:3"><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:major-fareast;mso-bidi-theme-font: major-bidi">There is a statistically proven trade-off between security assistance and the effectiveness of democracy assistance<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:13.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi">Finkel et al ‘08<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; color:black">Steven E. Finkel, University of Pittsburgh and Hertie School of Governance (Berlin) Aníbal Pérez-Liñán, University of Pittsburgh Mitchell A. Seligson, Vanderbilt University C. Neal Tate, Vanderbilt University<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span style="font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; color:black">Deepening Our Understanding of the Effects of US Foreign Assistance on Democracy Building:  Final Report   January 28, 2008</span><span style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";color:black"> </span><a href="http://www.pitt.edu/~politics/democracy/FINAL_REPORT%20v18b.pdf" target="_blank"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; color:#0658B5">http://www.pitt.edu/~politics/democracy/FINAL_REPORT%20v18b.pdf</span></a><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.3in"><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;background:yellow;mso-highlight: yellow">Democracy assistance......</span></u></b><span style="font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; color:black">r effects are more limited<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.3in"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi">The unwillingness of the US to engage with the opposition is the epitome of US foreign policy flaws<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:13.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi">Keyrouz ‘11<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi">By Wissam Keyrouz (AFP) – Oct 24, 2011<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi">Yemen president Saleh 'likely to fight, not quit'<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gvBPg9Oa3Rb1pJ3AwhbJxAyWP3sg?docId=CNG.f9bfe6d606c6d94946d204ed98d11922.1a1"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; text-decoration: none; ">http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gvBPg9Oa3Rb1pJ3AwhbJxAyWP3sg?docId=CNG.f9bfe6d606c6d94946d204ed98d11922.1a1</span></a><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.3in"><span style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;background:white">Ibrahim </span><b><u><span style="font-size:14.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi; background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow">Sharqieh, deputy .......</span></u></b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; "> the current unrest.</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.3in"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.3in"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:.3in"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>	02/11/12
	Tournament: \| Round: \| Opponent: \| Judge:	02/13/12
	NDT Quals Tournament: \| Round: \| Opponent: \| Judge: Everything we've read/gone for is either on this wiki or on Mac GS'. Any questions email me at lsmith8@macalester.edu	02/13/12
	ICITAP Aff- Districts Tournament: Districts \| Round: R 2 \| Opponent: IOWA AK \| Judge: Terrorism Advantage CONTENTION 1 IS TERRORISM AQAP is unique-its key to global Al Qaeada Frank J. Cilluffo Director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at The George Washington University, and Clinton Watts, Principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute and a former U.S. Army Officer and former Special Agent with the FBI, 2011 6/24 “Yemen & Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting a Window of Counterterrorism Opportunity” AQAP is the only..... an already serious problem worse. Plan builds local intelligence Green 11 (Daniel, Soref Fellow at the Washington Institute, "The al-Qaeda Crescent in Yemen," The Washington Institute, June 22, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3374) Much like AQAP,..... would improve. Decapitating local leaders is key-the big names don’t get to the root of the problem Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf) Defensive measures must .... eventual defeat of the group Successful AQAP attack draws the US into conflict in Yemen Terril Strategic Studies Institute 11. (Andrew Terril, joined the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) in October 2001, and is SSI’s Middle East specialist. January 2011, “The Conflicts in Yemen and US National Security”, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB1040.pdf) The political .....d combat forces. Holy Crap! The AQAP is going nuclear Grossman ‘11 By Elaine M. Grossman, Global Security Newswire Panetta: Yemeni Support for Counterterrorism Persists, Despite Instability Updated: June 10, 2011 \| 3:50 p.m. http://www.nationaljournal.com/nationalsecurity/panetta-yemeni-support-for-counterterrorism-persists-despite-instability-20110610 Adm. Michael Mullen, .... "dirty bomb" that spreads radioactive material in a conventional blast. They can build a bomb-its only a matter of getting the material Joyner 9 (Christopher C., Professor of International Law at Georgetown University, “Nuclear Terrorism in a Globalizing World: Assessing the Threat and the Emerging Management Regime,” Stanford Journal of International Law, Summer, p. 218,http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Nuclear+terrorism+in+a+globalizing+world%3A+assessing+the+threat+and...-a0216486733) A further cause for alarm.... the capabilities of al-Qaeda. (72) The impact is extinction Sid-Ahmed ‘4 (Mohamed, Managing Editor for Al-Ahali, “Extinction!” August 26-September 1, Issue no. 705, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm) A nuclear attack by terrorists ..... whole planet, we will all be losers. AQAP has the intent and the capabilities to disrupt the bab-al-mandab Thomas ‘11 Matthew J. Thomas Al-Qaeda in the Land of Faith and Wisdom: The Fall of Saleh and March on Al-Aqsa M.A. Nonproliferation and Terrorism StudiesMonterey Institute of International StudiesMay 2012, CandidateSubmitted on May 8, 2011IPOL 8627 A, Seminar: Militant Islamic MovementsProfessors Jeffery M. Bale and Sharad Joshi AQAP is well ...... of life for the Americans AQAP attacks causes oil shocks The Soufan Group 11 The Soufan Group, is an international strategic consultancy group that advises governments, corporations, and institutions on policy, strategy, security, and risk management; and trains law enforcement, intelligence, judicial, and security services.TSG Atmospherics: The Gate and the Straits: Oil Crises Ahead? July 7, 2011 http://soufangroup.com/news/details/?Article_Id=91 Further political...... high world oil prices. Single attacks can cause oil shocks and biodiversity loss-perception is key Cory Pres of Mammoh Resource Partners 2004 By Dr. Roger L. Cory, President Mammoh Resource Partners earned a Doctor of Jurisprudence from Pepperdine School of Law, and is both founder and President of Mammoth Resource Partners. Mammoth accepts partnership participation primarily from the broker/dealer industry, and is one of the most active and successful energy exploration companies in the Appalachian region. Oil Terrorism: The Living Nightmare No One Wants to Contemplate, 2004 http://www.mammothresource.com/article_files/oil_terrorism.pdf No one oil tanker, .... similar, future attacks. Oil shocks empirically collapse growth—Kill consumption and spike inflation Roubini Prof of Bis & Setser Research Associate 4 (Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Business, Brad Setser, Research Associate, Global Economic Governance Programme, University College, Oxford, August 2004, online) Oil prices shocks .,....The 2003 spike associated with the invasion of Iraq is a good example. The Brink is now Chart Prophet 1/4 Chart Prophet is a top-down equity investment fund backed by programmed timing strategies and a Triple-Perspective analysis. Jan 4 2012, 2012: On The Verge Of A Global Recession? http://seekingalpha.com/article/317338-2012-on-the-verge-of-a-global-recession 2012 will be ....e companies or stocks at reasonable valuations. Economic collapse causes extinction Bearden 2000 (Lt. Col Thomas E. Bearden, PhD, MS, BSCo-inventor - the 2002 Motionless Electromagnetic Generator - a replicated overunity EM generator Listed in Marquis' Who'sWho in America, 2004) Just prior to the ....r some modified version of it, resulting. Biodiversity loss leads to extinction. Diner ‘94—Major David, Judge Advocate General’s Corps, United States Army, Military Law Review, Winter, 143 Mil. L. Rev. 161 Biologically diverse .... may be edging closer to the abyss. Instability Advantage CONTENTION 2 IS INSTABILITY Lack of rule of law undermines water management projects in the status quo Rogers Research Assistance at CNAS 2009 Will Rogers, Research Assistant, Natural Security Program Center for a New American Security “On the Knife’s Edge: Yemen’s Instability and the Threats to American Interests” November 2009 pg 4 http://www.humansecuritygateway.com/documents/CNAS_OnTheKnifesEdge_YemensInstability_ThreatToAmericanInterests.pdf In Yemen, dwindling ..... its lack of authority. Yemen is on the brink of a water crisis that causes internal conflict Bipartisan Policy Center 2011 Project Co-Chairs: Ambassador Paula Dobriansky, former Undersecretary of State Admiral (Ret.) Gregory Johnson, former Commander, U.S. Naval Forces, Europe Fragility and Extremism in Yemen, Bipartisan Policy Center, January 2011 pg 46 *Water* Yemen .....g industry.145 Continued Yemeni instability causes a laundry list of problems including Saudi Arabia-Iran proxy wars and refugee crisis Bipartisan Policy Center 2011 Project Co-Chairs: Ambassador Paula Dobriansky, former Undersecretary of State Admiral (Ret.) Gregory Johnson, former Commander, U.S. Naval Forces, Europe Fragility and Extremism in Yemen, Bipartisan Policy Center, January 2011 pg 3 Were the .....t lack of legitimacy. Saudi-Iran proxy wars go nuclear London Pres of Hudson Institute and Prof Emeritus at NYU, 10 by Herbert I. London is President Emeritus of Hudson Institute and Professor Emeritus of New York University The Coming Crisis in the Middle East June 23, 2010 http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=7101 The gathering .... lead to a nuclear exchange. Specifically-the flood of armed refugees collapse Saudi Arabia Haykels Prof at Princeton 11 By Bernard Haykels a professor of Near Eastern studies at Princeton University Saudi Arabia’s policy of stability at all costs may backfire August 19, 2011 01:47 AM Read more: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2011/Aug-19/Saudi-Arabias-policy-of-stability-at-all-costs-may-backfire.ashx#ixzz1YHqlvEmy (The Daily Star :: Lebanon News :: http://www.dailystar.com.lb) Neighboring Yemen is a more...., possibly benefiting Iran in the long run. AND Saudi collapse triggers widespread Middles East instability and conflict Indyk Brookings Institute 11 By Martin Indyk, VP of Brookings Institute Foreign Policy Program April 7^th 2011 Amid the Arab Spring, Obama’s dilemma over Saudi Arabia http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/amid-the-arab-spring-obamas-dilemma-over-saudi-arabia/2011/04/07/AFhILDxC_story_1.html And the Saudi system i...Pax Americana in the Middle East. If Yemen becomes a failed state, every impact becomes inevitable Hedberg ‘10 By Nicholas J. Hedberg [Lieutenant, United States Navy B.A., Political Science, Gonzaga University, 2005] THE EXPLOITATION OF A WEAK STATE: AL-QAEDA IN THE ARABIAN PENINSULA IN YEMEN NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL THESIS, June 2010 There is no consensus ..... threat of transnational terrorism. New Plan Text Plan: The International Criminal Investigative Training Assistance Program (ICITAP) should provide civilian police training for Yemen. Solvency CONTENTION 3 IS SOLVENCY Well-trained police are the most effective means of combating terrorism-our evidence is comparative Knoetgen 11 [Peter, Commanding Officer US Naval Forces Central Command, Detachment 108 / 16 May 2011 Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil, http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil] Like most terror organisations, .....e and aggressive offensive action. Other aid agencies fail-won’t leave the compounds Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf) Beginning no later than 2009, ..... Agency for International Development (30 March 2011), 11, 19 The US and the international community don’t consider Yemen a priority Lynch 9/19 Posted By Marc Lynch is associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University. Monday, September 19, 2011 - 11:21 AM The costs of ignoring Yemen http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/19/the_costs_of_ignoring_yemen It has been difficult ,.... paying for that neglect in blood.	02/25/12

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10/26/11

Critical Yemen Aff V Loyola
- Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
- <p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:10.0pt;margin-right:0in;
 margin-bottom:0in;margin-left:.3in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:center;
 page-break-before:always;mso-pagination:widow-orphan lines-together;page-break-after:
 avoid;mso-outline-level:2">Contention
 One is Inherency<o:p></o:p>
 US security
 assistance is used against the protesters in Yemen<o:p></o:p>
 Zunes 11<o:p></o:p>
 Stephen
 Zunes Professor of Politics and Chair of Mid-Eastern Studies at the University
 of San Francisco, Yemen on the Edge, 5/17/11 <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/stephen-zunes/yemen-on-the-edge_b_861759.html">http://www.huffingtonpost.com/stephen-zunes/yemen-on-the-edge_b_861759.html</a><o:p></o:p>
 Despite <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2011/mar/21/yemen-army-commanders-defect" target="_hplink"><span style="border-top-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-bottom-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-top-color: windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-top-width: 1pt; border-right-width: 1pt; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-width: 1pt; padding-top: 0in; padding-right: 0in; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 0in; ">diplomatic cables going back as
 far as 2005</a> indicating that
 Saleh could potentially face a popular pro-democracy uprising, the Obama
 administration appears to have been caught completely off-guard. U.S. Secretary
 of Defense Robert Gates acknowledged that Washington had not planned for an era
 without Saleh. As one former ambassador to Yemen <a href="http://www.ndu.edu/inss/docUploaded/YAPHE_REVOLUTION_Event_Report.pdf" target="_hplink"><span style="border-top-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-bottom-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-top-color: windowtext; border-right-color: windowtext; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-left-color: windowtext; border-top-width: 1pt; border-right-width: 1pt; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-width: 1pt; padding-top: 0in; padding-right: 0in; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 0in; ">put it in back in March</a>,
 "For right now, he's our guy."<o:p></o:p>
 Since then, the Obama .....t from well-armed people at the top but
 from the consent of the people.
 Despite
 all the money and rhetoric, the US and the international community don’t
 consider Yemen a priority which is allowing violence against protesters to
 continue <o:p></o:p>
 Lynch 9/19 <o:p></o:p>
 Posted By <a href="http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/blog/2202">Marc Lynch</a> is associate professor of political science and
 international affairs at George Washington University. <![if gte vml 1]><v:shapetype id="_x0000_t75"
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 style='width:10.5pt;height:12.75pt;visibility:visible;mso-wrap-style:square'>
 <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\Users\test\AppData\Local\Temp\msohtmlclip1\01\clip_image001.png"
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 </v:shape><![endif]><!~~[if !vml]~~><img border="0" width="14" height="17" src="file:///C:/Users/test/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtmlclip1/01/clip_image001.png" alt="Description: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/images/091022_meta_block.gif" v:shapes="Picture_x0020_1"><!~~[endif]~~> Monday, September 19, 2011 -
 11:21 AM <a href="http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/19/the_costs_of_ignoring_yemen" title="The costs of ignoring Yemen">The costs of ignoring Yemen</a>
 <a href="http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/19/the_costs_of_ignoring_yemen">http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/19/the_costs_of_ignoring_yemen</a><o:p></o:p>
 It has been difficult to...t neglect in <o:p></o:p>
 blood.   <o:p></o:p>
 <o:p> </o:p>
 <p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:10.0pt;margin-right:0in;
 margin-bottom:0in;margin-left:.3in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:center;
 page-break-before:always;mso-pagination:widow-orphan lines-together;page-break-after:
 avoid;mso-outline-level:2">Contention
 Two is Fear<o:p></o:p>
 <o:p> </o:p>
 The
 status quo is scared of the possibilities presented by the revolutions in the
 Middle East-this leads us to prop up corrupt and brutal regimes as part of a
 racist decision calculus in the name of stability <o:p></o:p>
 Yezza
 ‘11<o:p></o:p>
 Ceasefire's editor-in-chief, Hich Yezza
 Editorial Real Arab democracy Vs mythical “regional stability” Posted on
 Saturday, February 5, 2011 0:00 - 7 Comments<o:p></o:p>
 However, one of the .... expense must end now.
 <o:p> </o:p>
 The
 fear of US involvement in the Middle East is counterproductive and entrenches
 Orientalism<o:p></o:p>
 Sadiki
 ‘11<o:p></o:p>
 Larbi Sadiki, is
 a Senior Lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University of Exeter, and
 author of Arab Democratization: Elections without Democracy (Oxford University
 Press, 2009) and The Search for Arab Democracy: Discourses and
 Counter-Discourses (Columbia University Press, 2004).The mathematics
 of the Arab Spring, Last Modified: 06 Jun 2011 16:33<o:p></o:p>
 Two fundamental ....  incapacity to speak back.
 <o:p> </o:p>
 The
 impact is mass violence and genocide<o:p></o:p>
 Munjid, 11 (3/27, Achmad, president of the Nahdlatul Ulama community in
 North America, “Overcoming Islamophobia in the United States,” <a href="http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/03/27/overcoming-islamophobia-united-states.html">http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/03/27/overcoming-islamophobia-united-states.html</a>)<o:p></o:p>
 Remember,
 as institutionalized hatred,....  consequences are. <o:p></o:p>
 <o:p> </o:p>
 <o:p> </o:p>
 The starting ..... h speed or
 ease.
 <o:p> </o:p>
 <o:p> </o:p>
 The
 problem with democracy assistance is not that we are overcommitted to “liberal
 values”, but that we are not actually committed to them. <o:p></o:p>
 Youngs
 ‘11<o:p></o:p>
 Richard
 Youngs is director general of FRIDE. He is also
 assistant professor at the University of Warwick in the UK January 2011
 the maladies of liberal democracy promotion<o:p></o:p>
 Current international.... that sap the desired ‘democratisation of democracy’.<o:p></o:p>
 <o:p> </o:p>
 <o:p> </o:p>
 Trying to “stabilize” the Middle East is counterproductive-by
 trying to prevent it we only ensure more violent outbreaks in the future<o:p></o:p>
 Taleb and Blyth 2011<o:p></o:p>
 NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB is Distinguished
 Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University's Polytechnic Institute
 and the author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.MARK
 BLYTH is Professor of International Political Economy at Brown University.<o:p></o:p>
 <table class="MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
 <tbody><tr>
 <td valign="top" style="padding:0in 2.25pt 0in 0in">
 The
 Black Swan of Cairo: How Suppressing Volatility Makes the World Less
 Predictable and More Dangerous May/June 2011, Foreign Affairs<o:p></o:p>
 </td>
 <td valign="top" style="padding:0in 0in 0in 0in">
 <o:p> </o:p>
 </td>
 </tr>
 </tbody></table>
 Both the recent financial crisis .... shared by all complex systems.
 <o:p> </o:p>
 We must embrace instability-allowing for
 instability to occur regularly results in less volatility <o:p></o:p>
 Taleb and  Blyth ‘11<o:p></o:p>
 NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB is Distinguished
 Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University's Polytechnic Institute
 and the author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. MARK
 BLYTH is Professor of International Political Economy at Brown University.<o:p></o:p>
 <table class="MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
 <tbody><tr>
 <td valign="top" style="padding:0in 2.25pt 0in 0in">
 The
 Black Swan of Cairo: How Suppressing Volatility Makes the World Less
 Predictable and More Dangerous May/June 2011, Foreign Affairs<o:p></o:p>
 </td>
 <td valign="top" style="padding:0in 0in 0in 0in">
 <o:p> </o:p>
 </td>
 </tr>
 </tbody></table>
 Variation is information. .... guarantee solid peace alone.
 <o:p> </o:p>
 <o:p> </o:p>
 The politics of fear that dominate US
 narrative about the Middle East is not rational and drives people to make
 irrational decisions<o:p></o:p>
 Sparks
 ‘03<o:p></o:p>
 Chris Sparks London Metropolitan University Liberalism, Terrorism and the
 Politics <o:p></o:p>
 of Fear P O L I T I C S :   2 0 0 3  
 V O L   2 3 ( 3 ) ,   2 0 0 – 2 0 6<o:p></o:p>
 The current fearfulness..... made signiﬁcant
 electoral gains.
 <o:p> </o:p>
 <o:p> </o:p>
 <p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="margin-top:10.0pt;margin-right:0in;
 margin-bottom:0in;margin-left:.3in;margin-bottom:.0001pt;text-align:center;
 page-break-before:always;mso-pagination:widow-orphan lines-together;page-break-after:
 avoid;mso-outline-level:2">Contention
 Three is Security<o:p></o:p>
 Security dominates the US agenda in Yemen-literally
 every shortcoming of US policy is caused by its security focus<o:p></o:p>
 Phillips
 ‘11<o:p></o:p>
 Phillips, Sarah. (is a lecturer at the Centre for
 International Security studies at the University<o:p></o:p>
 of Sydney) Yemen and the Politics of Permanent
 Crisis. London: International Institute fo<o:p></o:p>
 Strategic Studies (IISS), 2011. Print.<o:p></o:p>
 Like the Pakistani ..... there’s no question about it.’
 <o:p> </o:p>
 Security
 is the universal benchmark to which all other objectives are compared<o:p></o:p>
 Boucek
 2010<o:p></o:p>
 [Dr. Christopher, Associate, Middle East
 Program Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Written Testimony U.S. House
 of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs February 3, 2010 YEMEN ON THE
 BRINK: IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. POLICY,
 http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/0203_transcript_boucek_testimony.pdf]<o:p></o:p>
 It is essential ... improving domestic security.<o:p></o:p>
 <o:p> </o:p>
 The political enframing of counterterrorism as
 natural and inevitable provides the justification for the violence of the
 international arena  <o:p></o:p>
 Burke,
 Senior Lecturer in Politics and IR, University of New South Wales, 2007
 Anthony, Theory & Event, 10.2<o:p></o:p>
 My argument here, whilst ..... dysfunctional or
 chaotic.
 <o:p> </o:p>
 The drive for ontological certainty closes off
 the ability to contest our truth claims ~~guarantees infinite violence <o:p></o:p>~~
 Burke,
 Senior Lecturer in Politics and IR, University of New South Wales, 2007
 Anthony, Theory & Event, 10.2<o:p></o:p>
 I see
 such a drive.... it permeates being.<o:p></o:p>
 <o:p> </o:p>
 <o:p> </o:p>
 The ethic of the status
 quo is based on a technology of domination – the certainty of their impact
 claims is not only a façade but also an attempt to prevent examination of
 foundational truth claims-this makes violence inevitable <o:p></o:p>
 Burke, Senior
 Lecturer in Politics and IR, University of New South Wales, 2007
 Anthony, Theory & Event, 10.2<o:p></o:p>
 The epistemology of violence .....<span style="font-size:14.0pt;
 mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-bidi-font-family:
 "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;background:yellow;mso-highlight:
 yellow"> to be made.
 <o:p> </o:p>
 Securitization is based on a
 violent hatred of otherness and unpredictability, leading to a nihilism that
 kills value to life<o:p></o:p>
 James Der Derian, “The value of security: Hobbes, Marx,
 Nietzsche, and Baudrillard,” The Political Subject of Violence, 1993, pp. 102-105<o:p></o:p>
 The desire
 for .... all that
 makes life worthwhile.
 <o:p> </o:p>
 Thus the plan: <o:p></o:p>
 The United States federal government should
 transfer all security and military assistance funds for Yemen to democracy
 assistance funding for all opposition and civil society groups in Yemen. <o:p></o:p>
 <o:p> </o:p>
 <h2>Contention Four is Solvency <o:p></o:p></h2>
 The US must reorient its policy toward Yemen by cutting its security
 assistance<o:p></o:p>
 Al-Tamimi ‘11<o:p></o:p>
 By <a href="http://www.americanthinker.com/aymenn_jawad_al-tamimi/">Aymenn Jawad
 Al-Tamimi</a> is a student at
 Brasenose College, Oxford University, and an intern at the Middle East Forum.
 February 11, 2011 What to do about Yemen? <a href="http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/02/what_to_do_about_yemen.html">http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/02/what_to_do_about_yemen.html</a><o:p></o:p>
 Currently, the main financial ..... at the hands of the
 current wave of protests in Yemen.
 <o:p> </o:p>
 <o:p> </o:p>
 <span style="font-size:14.0pt;
 mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:
 "Times New Roman";mso-fareast-theme-font:major-fareast;mso-bidi-theme-font:
 major-bidi">There is a statistically proven trade-off between security
 assistance and the effectiveness of democracy assistance<o:p></o:p>
 Finkel et al ‘08<o:p></o:p>
 Steven E. Finkel, University of Pittsburgh and Hertie School of
 Governance (Berlin) Aníbal Pérez-Liñán, University of Pittsburgh Mitchell A.
 Seligson, Vanderbilt University C. Neal Tate, Vanderbilt University<o:p></o:p>
 Deepening Our Understanding of the Effects of US Foreign
 Assistance on Democracy Building:  Final Report   January 28,
 2008 <a href="http://www.pitt.edu/~politics/democracy/FINAL_REPORT%20v18b.pdf" target="_blank">http://www.pitt.edu/~politics/democracy/FINAL_REPORT%20v18b.pdf</a><o:p></o:p>
 <span style="font-size:14.0pt;
 mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";mso-bidi-font-family:
 "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;background:yellow;mso-highlight:
 yellow">Democracy assistance......r effects
 are more limited<o:p></o:p>
 <o:p> </o:p>
 The
 unwillingness of the US to engage with the opposition is the epitome of US
 foreign policy flaws<o:p></o:p>
 Keyrouz ‘11<o:p></o:p>
 By
 Wissam Keyrouz (AFP) – Oct 24, 2011<o:p></o:p>
 Yemen
 president Saleh 'likely to fight, not quit'<o:p></o:p>
 <a href="http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gvBPg9Oa3Rb1pJ3AwhbJxAyWP3sg?docId=CNG.f9bfe6d606c6d94946d204ed98d11922.1a1">http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gvBPg9Oa3Rb1pJ3AwhbJxAyWP3sg?docId=CNG.f9bfe6d606c6d94946d204ed98d11922.1a1</a><o:p></o:p>
 Ibrahim <span style="font-size:14.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";
 mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;
 background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow">Sharqieh, deputy ....... the current unrest.
 <o:p> </o:p>
 <o:p> </o:p>
 <o:p> </o:p>

02/11/12

- Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

02/13/12

NDT Quals
- Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
- Everything we've read/gone for is either on this wiki or on Mac GS'. Any questions email me at lsmith8@macalester.edu

02/13/12

ICITAP Aff- Districts
- Tournament: Districts | Round: R 2 | Opponent: IOWA AK | Judge:
- Terrorism Advantage
  CONTENTION 1 IS TERRORISM
  
  AQAP is unique-its key to global Al Qaeada
  Frank J. Cilluffo Director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at The George Washington University, and  Clinton Watts, Principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute and a former U.S. Army Officer and former Special Agent with the FBI,  2011 6/24 “Yemen & Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting a Window of Counterterrorism Opportunity”
  AQAP is the only..... an already serious problem worse.
  
  Plan builds local intelligence
  Green 11 (Daniel, Soref Fellow at the Washington Institute, "The al-Qaeda Crescent in Yemen," The Washington Institute, June 22, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3374)
  Much like AQAP,..... would improve.
  
  Decapitating local leaders is key-the big names don’t get to the root of the problem
  Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)
  Defensive measures must .... eventual defeat of the group
  
  Successful AQAP attack draws the US into conflict in Yemen
  Terril Strategic Studies Institute 11. (Andrew Terril, joined the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) in October 2001, and is SSI’s Middle East specialist. January 2011, “The Conflicts in Yemen and US National Security”, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB1040.pdf)
  The political .....d combat forces.
  
  Holy Crap! The AQAP is going nuclear
  Grossman ‘11
  By Elaine M. Grossman, Global Security Newswire Panetta: Yemeni Support for Counterterrorism Persists, Despite Instability Updated: June 10, 2011 | 3:50 p.m.
  http://www.nationaljournal.com/nationalsecurity/panetta-yemeni-support-for-counterterrorism-persists-despite-instability-20110610
  Adm. Michael Mullen, .... "dirty bomb" that spreads radioactive material in a conventional blast.
  
  They can build a bomb-its only a matter of getting the material
  Joyner 9 (Christopher C., Professor of International Law at Georgetown University, “Nuclear Terrorism in a Globalizing World: Assessing the Threat and the Emerging Management Regime,” Stanford Journal of International Law, Summer, p. 218,http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Nuclear+terrorism+in+a+globalizing+world%3A+assessing+the+threat+and...-a0216486733)
  A further cause for alarm.... the capabilities of al-Qaeda. (72)
  
  The impact is extinction
  Sid-Ahmed ‘4
  (Mohamed, Managing Editor for Al-Ahali, “Extinction!” August 26-September 1, Issue no. 705, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm)
  A nuclear attack by terrorists ..... whole planet, we will all be losers.
  
  AQAP has the intent and the capabilities to disrupt the bab-al-mandab
  Thomas ‘11
  Matthew J. Thomas Al-Qaeda in the Land of Faith and Wisdom: The Fall of Saleh and March on Al-Aqsa M.A. Nonproliferation and Terrorism StudiesMonterey Institute of International StudiesMay 2012, CandidateSubmitted on May 8, 2011IPOL 8627 A, Seminar: Militant Islamic MovementsProfessors Jeffery M. Bale and Sharad Joshi
  AQAP is well ...... of life for the Americans
  
  AQAP attacks causes oil shocks
  The Soufan Group 11
  The Soufan Group, is an international strategic consultancy group that advises governments, corporations, and institutions on policy, strategy, security, and risk management; and trains law enforcement, intelligence, judicial, and security services.TSG Atmospherics: The Gate and the Straits: Oil Crises Ahead? July 7, 2011 http://soufangroup.com/news/details/?Article_Id=91
  Further political...... high world oil prices.
  
  Single attacks can cause oil shocks and biodiversity loss-perception is key
  Cory Pres of Mammoh Resource Partners 2004
  By Dr. Roger L. Cory, President Mammoh Resource Partners earned a Doctor of Jurisprudence from Pepperdine School of Law, and is both founder and President of Mammoth Resource Partners. Mammoth accepts partnership participation primarily from the broker/dealer industry, and is one of the most active and successful energy exploration companies in the Appalachian region. Oil Terrorism: The Living Nightmare No One Wants to Contemplate, 2004 http://www.mammothresource.com/article_files/oil_terrorism.pdf
  No one oil tanker, .... similar, future attacks.
  
  Oil shocks empirically collapse growth—Kill consumption and spike inflation
  Roubini Prof of Bis & Setser Research Associate 4 (Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Business, Brad Setser, Research Associate, Global Economic Governance Programme, University College, Oxford, August 2004, online)
  Oil prices shocks .,....The 2003 spike associated with the invasion of Iraq is a good example.
  
  The Brink is now
  Chart Prophet 1/4
  Chart Prophet  is a top-down equity investment fund backed by programmed timing strategies and a Triple-Perspective analysis. Jan 4 2012, 2012: On The Verge Of A Global Recession? http://seekingalpha.com/article/317338-2012-on-the-verge-of-a-global-recession
  2012 will be ....e companies or stocks at reasonable valuations.
  
  Economic collapse causes extinction
  Bearden 2000 (Lt. Col Thomas E. Bearden, PhD, MS, BSCo-inventor - the 2002 Motionless Electromagnetic Generator - a replicated overunity EM generator Listed in Marquis' Who'sWho in America, 2004)
  Just prior to the ....r some modified version of it, resulting.
  Biodiversity loss leads to extinction.
  Diner ‘94—Major David, Judge Advocate General’s Corps, United States Army, Military Law Review, Winter, 143 Mil. L. Rev. 161
  Biologically diverse .... may be edging closer to the abyss.
  
  Instability Advantage
  CONTENTION 2 IS INSTABILITY
  
  Lack of rule of law undermines water management projects in the status quo
  Rogers Research Assistance at CNAS 2009
  Will Rogers, Research Assistant, Natural Security Program Center for a New American Security
  “On the Knife’s Edge: Yemen’s Instability and the Threats to American Interests” November 2009 pg 4 http://www.humansecuritygateway.com/documents/CNAS_OnTheKnifesEdge_YemensInstability_ThreatToAmericanInterests.pdf
  In Yemen, dwindling ..... its lack of authority.
  
  Yemen is on the brink of a water crisis that causes internal conflict
  Bipartisan Policy Center 2011
  Project Co-Chairs: Ambassador Paula Dobriansky, former Undersecretary of State Admiral (Ret.) Gregory Johnson, former Commander, U.S. Naval Forces, Europe Fragility and Extremism in Yemen, Bipartisan Policy Center, January 2011 pg 46
  Water Yemen .....g industry.145
  
  Continued Yemeni instability causes a laundry list of problems including Saudi Arabia-Iran proxy wars and refugee crisis
  Bipartisan Policy Center 2011
  Project Co-Chairs: Ambassador Paula Dobriansky, former Undersecretary of State Admiral (Ret.) Gregory Johnson, former Commander, U.S. Naval Forces, Europe Fragility and Extremism in Yemen, Bipartisan Policy Center, January 2011 pg 3
  Were the .....t lack of legitimacy.
  
  Saudi-Iran proxy wars go nuclear
  London Pres of Hudson Institute and Prof Emeritus at NYU, 10
  by Herbert I. London is President Emeritus of Hudson Institute and Professor Emeritus of New York University
  The Coming Crisis in the Middle East
  June 23, 2010
  http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=7101
  The gathering .... lead to a nuclear exchange.
  
  Specifically-the flood of armed refugees collapse Saudi Arabia
  Haykels Prof at Princeton 11
  By Bernard Haykels a professor of Near Eastern studies at Princeton University
  Saudi Arabia’s policy of stability at all costs may backfire August 19, 2011 01:47 AM
  Read more: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2011/Aug-19/Saudi-Arabias-policy-of-stability-at-all-costs-may-backfire.ashx#ixzz1YHqlvEmy
  (The Daily Star :: Lebanon News :: http://www.dailystar.com.lb)
  Neighboring Yemen is a more...., possibly benefiting Iran in the long run.
  
  AND Saudi collapse triggers widespread Middles East instability and conflict
  Indyk Brookings Institute 11
  By Martin Indyk, VP of Brookings Institute Foreign Policy Program April 7^th 2011 Amid the Arab Spring, Obama’s dilemma over Saudi Arabia http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/amid-the-arab-spring-obamas-dilemma-over-saudi-arabia/2011/04/07/AFhILDxC_story_1.html
  And the Saudi system i...Pax Americana in the Middle East.
  
  If Yemen becomes a failed state, every impact becomes inevitable
  Hedberg ‘10
  By Nicholas J. Hedberg [Lieutenant, United States Navy B.A., Political Science, Gonzaga University, 2005] THE EXPLOITATION OF A WEAK STATE: AL-QAEDA IN THE ARABIAN PENINSULA IN YEMEN NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL THESIS, June 2010
  There is no consensus ..... threat of transnational terrorism.
  
  New Plan Text
  
  Plan: The International Criminal Investigative Training Assistance Program
  (ICITAP) should provide civilian police training for Yemen.
  
  Solvency
  CONTENTION 3 IS SOLVENCY
  
  Well-trained police are the most effective means of combating terrorism-our evidence is comparative
  Knoetgen 11
  [Peter, Commanding Officer US Naval Forces Central Command, Detachment 108 / 16 May 2011 Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil, http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil]
  Like most terror organisations, .....e and aggressive offensive action.
  
  Other aid agencies fail-won’t leave the compounds
  Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)
  Beginning no later than 2009, ..... Agency for International Development (30 March 2011), 11, 19
  
  The US and the international community don’t consider Yemen a priority
  Lynch 9/19
  Posted By Marc Lynch is associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University. Monday, September 19, 2011 - 11:21 AM The costs of ignoring Yemen http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/19/the_costs_of_ignoring_yemen
  It has been difficult ,.... paying for that neglect in blood.

02/25/12

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