AQAP Advantage
CONTENTION 1 IS TERRORISM
The first internal Link is Anti-Americanism
- The US is committed to military
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these backfire, producing greater recruiting pools for terrorism
Johnsen Ph.D at Princeton 10 (
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_peril?page=0,1)
The United States, faced with a difficult
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that luck holding is not a safe bet.
Now is a key time to change perceptions
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hearts and minds in Yemen that prevent AQAP attacks
Green Soref Fellow at Washington Institute 11 (Daniel, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and stability operations, “The American Moment in Yemen,” Fikra Forum, April 18, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/.)
If the United States adopts a new approach
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which to launch attacks against the United States.
AND THE SECOND INTERNAL LINK IS GOVERNANCE
AQAP is creating a safe haven by filling
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better offer which fracture the AQAP-Tribe alliance
Hedberg Lieutenant in the US navy ‘10
By Nicholas J. Hedberg [Lieutenant, United States Navy B.A., Political Science, Gonzaga University, 2005] THE EXPLOITATION OF A WEAK STATE: AL-QAEDA IN THE ARABIAN PENINSULA IN YEMEN NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL THESIS, June 2010
The final aspect of…..
, but it is going to take the help of the important Western donor countries, and most importantly, its neighbors in the Gulf Cooperation Council.
AND THE IMPACTS
Yemen is the key linchpin of global Al Qaeda– they’re key to recruiting, training, deployment, and are the refuge of last resort
Scheuer Adj Prof at Georgetown ‘8 [Michael Scheuer is a former CIA intelligence officer, American blogger, historian, foreign policy critic, and political analyst. He is currently an adjunct professor at Georgetown University's Center for Peace and Security Studies, “Yemen’s Role in al-Qaeda’s Strategy”, Terrorism Focus Volume: 5 Issue: 5, February 7, 2008, http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=4708&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=246&no_cache=1]
Osama bin Laden has…
. This feeling becomes even stronger if those who need protection are religious people, because the tribesmen here are greatly affected by religious discourse”
AQAP is the greatest terrorist threat-they can attack the US
Boucek Yemen expert and fellow at Carnegie Endowment, 2011
[Dr. Christopher, Associate, Middle East Program Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Written Testimony Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Near Eastern and South and Central Asian Affairs Washington, D.C. July 19, 2011, http://foreign.senate.gov/hearings/hearing/?id=6dfc834d-5056-a032-5221-41d3cf94e791]
Since its creation …..
packages mailed from Yemen.
Successful AQAP attack draws the US into conflict in Yemen
Terril Strategic Studies Institute 11. (Andrew Terril, joined the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) in October 2001, and is SSI’s Middle East specialist. January 2011, “The Conflicts in Yemen and US National Security”, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB1040.pdf)
The political situation …. US ground combat forces.
Holy Crap! The AQAP is going nuclear
Grossman ‘11
By Elaine M. Grossman, Global Security Newswire Panetta: Yemeni Support for Counterterrorism Persists, Despite Instability Updated: June 10, 2011 | 3:50 p.m.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/nationalsecurity/panetta-yemeni-support-for-counterterrorism-persists-despite-instability-20110610
Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman …. He noted that the Defense Department was working with other U.S. agencies to "prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons, fissile materials and dangerous technologies."
The impact is extinction
Sid-Ahmed ‘4
(Mohamed, Managing Editor for Al-
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/2004/705/op5.htm)
A nuclear attack by terrorists will be much
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whole planet, we will all be losers.
AQAP is able and interested in disrupting the Bab al Mandeb
Redfour Security Group No Date [was established
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The Bab El Mandeb are the straits between
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number of the warships availbale in the area.
The Somlai pirates are recognised as being the
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of Tears would undoubtedly bring rich financial rewards.
However, the real importance of the Bab
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the United States brings its support to Israel.”
AQAP attacks causes oil shocks
The Soufan Group 11
The Soufan Group, is an international strategic
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Further political disruption—or the fall of
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pressure on already very high world oil prices.
Single attacks can cause oil shocks and biodiversity loss-perception is key
Cory Pres of Mammoh Resource Partners 2004
By Dr. Roger L. Cory,
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No one oil tanker, should it be
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Strait of Hormuz could have a tremendous effect.
The environmental impact would create a crisis all
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choke point be rendered impassible or significantly obstructed.
We treated the topic of choke point vulnerability
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narrow channels in the world’s most dangerous regions.
Any violent disruption in this crucial international movement
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structure the possibility of similar, future attacks.
Oil shocks empirically collapse growth—Kill consumption and spike inflation
Roubini Prof of Bis & Setser Research Associate 4 (Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Business, Brad Setser, Research Associate, Global Economic Governance Programme, University College, Oxford, August 2004, online)
Oil prices shocks have a stagflationary effect on
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the invasion of Iraq is a good example.
Economic collapse causes extinction
Bearden 2000 (Lt. Col Thomas E. Bearden, PhD, MS, BSCo-inventor - the 2002 Motionless Electromagnetic Generator - a replicated overunity EM generator Listed in Marquis' Who'sWho in America, 2004)
Just prior to the terrible collapse of the
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or some modified version of it, resulting.
Biodiversity loss leads to extinction.
Diner ‘94—Major David, Judge Advocate General’s Corps, United States Army, Military Law Review, Winter, 143 Mil. L. Rev. 161
Biologically diverse ecosystems are characterized by a large
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mankind may be edging closer to the abyss.
Instability Advantage
CONTENTION 2 IS INSTABILITY
Lack of government capacity undermines water management projects in the status quo
Rogers Research Assistance at CNAS 2009
Will Rogers, Research Assistant, Natural Security Program Center for a New American Security
“On the Knife’s Edge: Yemen’s Instability
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In Yemen, dwindling oil production, acute
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the water crisis compounds its lack of authority.
Yemen is on the brink of a water crisis that causes internal conflict
Bipartisan Policy Center 2011
Project Co-Chairs: Ambassador Paula Dobriansky
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, Bipartisan Policy Center, January 2011 pg 46
Water Yemen has always suffered from meager water
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hits the lucrative qat-growing industry.145
Continued Yemeni instability causes a laundry list of problems including Saudi Arabia-Iran proxy wars and refugee crisis
Bipartisan Policy Center 2011
Project Co-Chairs: Ambassador Paula Dobriansky
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, Bipartisan Policy Center, January 2011 pg 3
Were the situation to deteriorate further, and
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weaknesses and the state’s resultant lack of legitimacy.
Saudi-Iran proxy wars go nuclear
London Pres of Hudson Institute and Prof Emeritus at NYU, 10
by Herbert I. London is President Emeritus of Hudson Institute and Professor Emeritus of New York University
The Coming Crisis in the Middle East
June 23, 2010
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The gathering storm in the Middle East is
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second holocaust could lead to a nuclear exchange.
Specifically-the flood of armed refugees collapse Saudi Arabia
Haykels Prof at Princeton 11
By Bernard Haykels a professor of Near Eastern
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:www.dailystar.com.lb)
Neighboring Yemen is a more immediate threat.
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country is on the verge of total collapse.
Today, the Saudis see 24 million Yemenis
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to return to Sanaa to resume his rule.
For all of their wealth and planning,
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, possibly benefiting Iran in the long run.
AND Saudi collapse triggers widespread Middles East instability and conflict
Indyk Brookings Institute 11
By Martin Indyk, VP of Brookings Institute
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And the Saudi system is fragile. Power
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treated as second-class citizens for decades.
Even if the Obama administration were understandably inclined
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end of Pax Americana in the Middle East.
If Yemen becomes a failed state, every impact becomes inevitable
Hedberg ‘10
By Nicholas J. Hedberg [Lieutenant,
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IN YEMEN NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL THESIS, June 2010
There is no consensus on how many weak
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the West than the threat of transnational terrorism.
Plan Text
Plan: The United States Federal Government should provide assistance for local governacne training programs and assistance for civil society groups in Yemen
Any questions just ask.
Solvency
CONTENTION 3 IS SOLVENCY
US governance assistance for municipalities and civil society groups solves
Greenfield Program Officer for the Middle East 10
[Danya, program officer with the Middle
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]
U.S. policy should focus on
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their experience in Iraq working with tribal groups.
The US is the most credible actor in Yemen
Burke Researcher at FRIDE 10 (Edward,
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_Yemen_ENG_jul10.pdf)
Among NGOs, the US is regarded as
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civil society activists in Yemen than European donors.
.
The US gives aid to Yemen now-its just not enough
Dilanian 2010
[Ken, USA TODAY Updated 1/
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]
Although American officials have been saying for years
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of the sums sent to its regional neighbors.
"It makes no sense," said Christopher
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Yemen doesn't match the scope of the problem."
USAID has key experience with local governance assistance
DININIO 2000
(PHYLLIS DEMOCRACY AND GOVERNANCE SPECIALIST, WORKING
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September 2000 )
As government officials and citizens around the world
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strengthening democracy and improving the welfare of local communities
