The United States federal government should offer democratic political organization training to the Syrian National Council.
Cred
Material support to democratic forces is key US credibility.
Pollack, Saban Center for Middle East Policy director, 12-5-11
(Kenneth, “America's Second Chance and the Arab Spring”, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/12/05/americas_second_chance?page=0,3, DOA: 12-8-11, ldg)
To this end, the United States must […] country it imagines itself to be.
Syria is key
Crowley, Penn State Omar Bradley chair of strategic leadership, 11
[P.J. former State Department assistant secretary and spokesman (in the Obama administration), "Obama must tell Assad to go," Washington Post, 6-19-2011, www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/obama-tell-syrias-assad-he-has-to-go/2011/06/17/AGlZB3bH_story.html, accessed 8-4-11, mss]
Six months ago, almost no one, including American […] and on the right side of history.
Syria is the litmus test-intervening on the side of protestors transforms the US’s image.
Hamid, Brookings Doha center research director, 1-26-12
(Shadi, “Why We Have a Responsibility to Protect Syria”, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/01/why-we-have-a-responsibility-to-protect-syria/251908/, DOA: 3-25-12, ldg)
As I argued in a recent article in The New Republic, Arab […] and India cannot offer this. Russia and China certainly cannot.
Cred is key to military cooperation.
Nakamura et al., CRS Foreign Affairs analyst, 2009
(Kennon H., “U.S. Public Diplomacy: Background and Current Issues”, 12-18, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R40989.pdf, ldg)
The attitudes and perceptions of foreign […] diminish and new partnerships will be possible.
Cred in the Middle East spills over and defines overall hegemony
Inboden, Texas Austin Public Affairs professor, 11-21-11
(Will, “The global chessboard”, http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/11/21/the_global_chess_board, DOA: 1-6-12, ldg)
China, after all, sees its subtle rivalry with the […] are important players on the same global chessboard.
Cred is key to make heg sustainable.
Jervis, Columbia IR professor, 2009
(Robert, “Unipolarity A Structural Perspective”, World Politics, Volume 61, Number 1, January 2009, Project Muse, ldg)
To say that the system is unipolar […] vision and believe that its leadership is benign.
Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction-multipolarity is inevitable but absolute US power smoothes the transition and is empirically correlated to great-power peace
Barnett, Naval War College Warfare Analysis & Research Department professor, 2011
(Thomas, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads”, 3-7, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads, DOA: 10-9-11, ldg)
Let me be more blunt: As the guardian of globalization[…] embedded in the geometry to come.
U.S. hegemonic decline causes global great-power war, collapses trade and spreads economic nationalism and protectionism
Zhang et al., Carnegie Endowment researcher, 2011
(Yuhan, “America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry”, 1-22, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/, DOA: 9-21-11, ldg)
This does not necessarily mean that the US is in systemic […] that will inevitably be devoid of unrivalled US primacy.
That causes great power war
Hillebrand, Kentucky diplomacy professor, 2010
(Evan, “Deglobalization Scenarios: Who Wins? Who Loses?”, Global Economy Journal, Volume 10, Issue 2, ebsco, ldg)
A long line of writers from Cruce (1623) to Kant (1797) to Angell (1907) […] fractious relations among states and the probability for interstate war rises.
War is at its lowest level in history because of US primacy---best statistical studies prove heg solves war because it makes democratic peace resilient globalization sustainable---it’s the deeper cause of proximate checks against war
Owen, UVA politics professor, 2011
(John, “Don’t Discount Hegemony”, 2-11, http://www.cato-unbound.org/2011/02/11/john-owen/dont-discount-hegemony/, DOA: 10-9-11, ldg)
We would still need to explain how […] moral support for liberal democracy remains strong.
Absolute decline means the US will become uncooperative and desperate---hegemonic wars will ensue
Goldstein, Penn IR professor, 2007
(Avery, “Power transitions, institutions, and China's rise in East Asia: Theoretical expectations and evidence,” Journal of Strategic Studies, Volume 30, Issue 4 & 5 August, ebsco, ldg)
Two closely related, though distinct, theoretical arguments focus explicitly […] to the possible crossover.19 pg. 647-650
Focus on strategic deterrence and democracy are key to averting crisis escalation—reject the infinite number of root causes that debilitate action
Moore, UVA law professor, 2004
(John, “Beyond the Democratic Peace: Solving the War Puzzle”, 44 Va. J. Int'l L. 341, Winter, lexis, ldg)
If major interstate war is predominantly a product of a synergy between a […] when levels of deterrence are dramatically increased or decreased?
Shocks to the system are the ONLY propensity for conflict—globalization and liberal norms have eradicated warfare and structural violence—every field study proves
Horgan, Stevens Institute of Technology Center for Science director, 2009
(John, “The End of the Age of War”, 12-6, http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2009/12/06/the-end-of-the-age-of-war.html, DOA: 10-9-11, ldg)
The economic crisis was supposed to increase violence […] scientist Nils Petter Gleditsch of the International Peace Research Institute in Oslo.
States will inevitably compete for relative status – only primacy can prevent conflict
Wohlforth, Dartmouth government professor, 2009
(William, “Unipolarity, Status Competition, and Great Power War” World Politics, 61:1, project muse, ldg)
Second, I question the dominant view that status quo […] material interest in security and/or prosperity.
Russia is trying to dictate the course of political transitions in MENA-only US can counter them
Grygiel, Center for European Policy Analysis senior fellow, 2011
(Jakub, “Great Powers and Democracy Promotion”, 10-3, http://www.cepa.org/ced/view.aspx?record_id=319, DOA: 11-20-11, ldg)
Alas, reality is different. Democratization does not occur […] dangerous geopolitical consequences of their actions.
Successful authoritarian counterrevolution in MENA emboldens Russian expansionist aggression globally
Puddington, Freedom House researcher, 2011
(Arch, “Democracy’s Stake in the Arab Spring,” Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs, Vol. 5, No. 3, http://israelcfr.com/documents/5-3/5-3-3-ArchPuddington.pdf, DOA: 11-20-11, ldg)
There is yet another reason for the world’s democracies […] cause of freedom everywhere else.
Russian resurgence causes global nuclear war
Blank, US Army War College National Security Affairs professor, 2009
(Stephen, “Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?”, March, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf, DOA: 11-20-11, ldg)
Proliferators or nuclear states like China and Russia can then […] neighbors or their own people. 172
Solvency
Bolstering the SNC is the only way to avert civil war-the US is key.
Torbey et al., Kansas Regional Integration in the Middle East PhD candidate, 12-16-11
(Khattar, “Breaking the Stalemate in Syria”, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/POMED-Policy-Brief_Maalouf.pdf, DOA: 12-28-11, ldg)
Nine months on, the conflict between the […] role in building the SNC’S organizational capacity.
No kiss of death.
Hamid, Brookings Doha center research director, 10-1-11
(Shadi, “What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring”, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/1001_obama_hamid.aspx, DOA; 10-13-11, ldg)
Across the region, activists were […] leadership, it often comes away disappointed.
Plan solves opposition unity and reassures minorities.
Palmer et al., Vice Chairman of Freedom House, 3-6-12
(Mark, “The Case for Arming the Syrian Opposition”, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203986604577257201200177274.html, DOA: 3-23-12, ldg)
Strengthening the Syrian opposition is not […] is already starting to fragment.
US stance encourages defections
Al-Humaid, Asharq Al-Awsat Editor in Chief, 3-12-12
(Tariq, “Obama Is the Problem, Not Only Russia”, http://watchingamerica.com/News/148678/obama-is-the-problem-not-only-russia/, DOA: 3-24-12, ldg)
The problem with the current U.S. […] not see a firm stance from Washington?
Plan leads to a soft landing by undermining Assad support groups.
Hannah, Foundation for defending democracies senior fellow, 2011
(John, “Obama and Syria: Courting Disaster”, 5-11, http://www.defenddemocracy.org/about-fdd/team-overview/john-hannah/, DOA; 10-13-11, ldg)
Instead, the administration needs quickly […] stand in the first post-Assad elections.
Bolstering the opposition is key to speed up and smooth transition
Doran et al., Saban Center senior fellow, 2011
(Michael, “Getting Serious in Syria”, 7-29, http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2011/0801_syria_doran_shaikh.aspx, DOA: 10-13-11, ldg)
Consequently, we should expect the regime to collapse […] its effectiveness and professionalize its efforts
Our authors’ methods are accurate
Sorensen, Aarhus University IR professor, 1998
(Georg, “IR Theory after the cold war” Review of International Studies, JSTOR, ldg)
What, then, are the more general problems with […] compelled to embrace any conceivable change project.28
