Harvard 1AC
Contention One: The Status Quo
USAID underfunded now – renewed commitment key
Bodine 10
(Barbara, Lecturer and Diplomat-in-Residence at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, "Yemen: Primer and Prescriptions," Prism, National Defense University Press, June, http://www.ndu.edu/press/yemen.html, CW, accessed on 9/20/11)
The 2010–2012 …seek to reinvent.
Assistance is key to effectiveness of local councils
ARD 4
("Democracy and Governance Assessment of Yemen," Work Conducted Under Core Task Order No. 1 Under USAID Contract, February, pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNACX728.pdf, CW, accessed on 9/20/11)
Such a system was … needs of the people.
Plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase its support for the capacity and oversight of local government institutions in Yemen.
Contention Two: Terrorism
Drone strikes on AQAP are inevitable but will fail and produce blowback because of lack of local knowledge – supplementing counterterrorism with governance is key
Gude and Sofer 11
(Ken and Ken, Managing Director of the National Security and Internal Policy Program and Special Assistant, "Misfiring at Al Qaeda in Yemen," Center for American Progress, July 14, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/06/yemen_drones, CW, accessed on 9/20/11)
The Wall Street Journal … serious problem worse.
AQAP is using governance to take over the Southern provinces – countering them is key to prevent an emirate state and terror attacks
Zimmerman 11
(Katherine, "Al Qaeda's Gains in South Yemen," American Enterprise Institute, July 8, Zihttp://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/al-qaedas-gains-south-yemen-july-8-2011, CW, accessed on 9/20/11)
The collapse of …emirate in south Yemen.
Yemen failed state makes it a terrorist safe haven
Knoetgen 11
(Peter, "Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil," Central European Journal of International and Security Studies," May 16, http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil, CW, accessed on 9/20/11)
Yet even when … with the fourth.
AQAP is strong and planning attacks
Ackerman 9/30
(Spencer Ackerman, “Qaida’s YouTube Preacher Is Killed In Yemen”, September 30, 2011, http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/09/awlaki-dead-yemen/, CW, accessed on 10/27/11)
An American citizen… US are expected.”
Awlaki’s death just means AQAP will strike sooner and harder
Kohlmann 9/30
(Evan, independent U.S. terrorism consultant “Analysts view: Spotlight on Awlaki killing,” http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44731274/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/#.ToXsp-znOVo, CW, accessed on 10/27/11)
EVAN KOHLMANN, INDEPENDENT …its military capabilities."
Defeating AQAP now while leadership is weak is key
Terrill 11
(Andrew, Research Professor in National Security Affairs, "The Conflicts in Yemen and US National Security," Defence Talk, February 15, Strategic Studies Institute, http://www.defencetalk.com/the-conflicts-in-yemen-and-us-national-security-32049/, CW, accessed on 9/20/11)
Additionally, Yemen’s …emerging insurgent movement
Even if they don’t have the weapons, it’s perceived as a nuclear attack
Kimery 11
(Anthony, Homeland Security Today's senior reporter and online editor W. Scott Malone, multiple Emmy and Peabody award-winning investigative journalist and former senior editor of NavySEALs.com. He runs the website's counterterrorism newsletter spin-off, “BlackNET Intelligence Channel,” 05/12, “Al Qaeda Could Try to Replicate Fukushima-type Meltdowns,” http://www.hstoday.us/blogs/the-kimery-report/blog/al-qaeda-could-try-to-replicate-fukushima-type-meltdowns/aa96292934d83bb8c9f97fd9d685f32b.html, CW, accessed on 10/27/11)
"I consider Al Qaeda, … intense,” Lopez said.
Two Scenarios:
First, safe Haven in Yemen allows AQAP to plot terrorist attacks – they will be successful
Boucek 11
(Christopher, Associate of the Middle East Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, "Alarming Reality in Yemen," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, The Hill, March 9, http://carnegie.ru/publications/?fa=42938, CW, accessed on 9/20/11)
Because of the government’s …needing to travel abroad.
3 internal links to extinction – attack happens before the election, against Israel, and India
Malone 11
(David, Nonprofit Defense-Consulting Organizer, "Future Attacks on America? Al Qaeda’s Next October Surprise," BlPlan, http://www.binladensplan.com/Future_Attacks_on_US.html)
Al Qaeda's 2008 surge … and time-scaled terrorism.
A nuclear strike by al Qaeda causes US-China-Russia war, environmental collapse, and extinction
Morgan, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, 2009
(Dennis, World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race Futures, Volume 41, Issue 10, December, ldg)
In a remarkable website …of strategic weapons
Second, Yemen is the training ground for terrorism against Saudi Arabia – they will attack oil facilities
Ulrichsen 11
(Kristian, Kuwait Research Fellow in the Kuwait Programme for Development, Governance and Globalisation in the Gulf States Centre for the Study of Global Governance at the London SChool of Economics and Political SCience, "The Geopolitics of Insecurity in the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula," Middle East Policy Council, http://www.mepc.org/journal/middle-east-policy-archives/geopolitics-insecurity-horn-africa-and-arabian-peninsula?print, CW, accessed on 9/27/11)
The reconstitution of AQAP …the Arabian Peninsula.9
Attacks on Saudi oil facilities collapse the global economy
Gartenstein-Ross 11
(Daveed, Directs the Center for the Study of Terrorist Radicalization at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, "Osama's Oil Obsession," Foreign Policy, May 23, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/05/23/osamas_oil_obsession, CW, accessed on 9/27/11)
Bin Laden long believed … didn't think about."
Global economic crisis causes war---strong statistical support
Royal, director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010
(Jedediah, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal, and Political Perspectives, pg 213-215, ldg)
Less intuitive is how … ancillary to those views.
Decentralized governance assistance is key to gaining local knowledge to end AQAP
Green 11
(Daniel, Soref Fellow at the Washington Institute, "The al-Qaeda Crescent in Yemen," The Washington Institute, June 22, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3374, accessed on 9/26/11)
Much like AQAP, … the United States.
The plan is key – it shores up US credibility and increases co-operative networks to fight AQAP
Green 11
(Daniel, Soref Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, "The American Moment in Yemen," Fikra Forum, April 18, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/)
It is becoming increasingly … them more representative.
Contention Three: Naval Base
Pre-eminence prevents the escalation of all conflicts – withdrawal makes their outbreak more likely Kagan, senior associate at Carnegie, 2007
(Robert, “End of Dreams, Return of History” Policy Review, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/8552512.html#n10, ldg)
This is a good thing, … to extend American
Heg key to sustain alliances-provides assurance.
Kagan, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2000
(Robert, “Present Dangers: Crisis and Opportunity in American Foreign and Defense Policy”, pg 15-16,
The United States …would appear at our doorstep.
Alliances are vital to solving every major problem
Biden, vice president and former chair of the foreign relations committee, 2003
(Joe, “Remarks by Sen. Joseph Biden at the Release of "Progressive Internationalism", 10-30, http://www.dlc.org/ndol_ci.cfm?kaid=106&subid=122&contentid=252157, ldg)
Simply put, this .. of no value.
Independently, naval power solves global WMD conflicts
Peele ’97
(Reynolds B., Lieutenant, USMC, The Importance of Maritime Chokepoints, Parameters, Summer)
There are presently six … can be protected.
Counter-terrorism cooperation is key to securing a naval base on the Island of Socotra – ensures global naval power projection
Chussudovsky 10
(Michael, Professor of Economics at the University of Ottowa and Director of the Centrefor Research on Globalization, "Yemen and the Militarization of Strategic Waterways: Securing US Control over Socotra Island and the Gulf of Aden," Centre for Global Research, February 7, www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=17460, CW, accessed on 9/27/11)
The Yemeni archipelago … in these waters."
Assistance is key – it’s a bargaining chip for co-operation
Washington Post 11
("Yemen's future after Saleh worries US officials," June 5, http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/yemens-future-after-saleh-worries-us-officials/2011/06/05/AGyAvmJH_story_1.html, CW, accessed on 9/27/11)
While Saudi Arabia, with … something about AQAP.”
Counterterrorism co-operation creates dependence – results in basing
Ommani 10
(Ardeshir, Political Economist and President of the American Iranian Fellowship, "Imperialism's Role in Yemen," Mathaba, June 10, www.mathaba.net/news/?x=627061, CW, accessed on 9/27/11)
This presentation consists … more than 1100 miles.
