GSU AFF – 1AC – ADVANTAGE ONE
US power projection and hegemony is key to solve global wars
Kagan, senior associate at Carnegie, 2007
(Robert, “End of Dreams, Return of History” Policy Review, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/8552512.html#n10, ldg)
This is a good thing, … an easier path.
Middle East war goes nuclear
Russell, Naval Postgraduate School National Security professor, 2009
(James, "Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Nuclear War and Escalation in the Middle East", http://www.nps.edu/academics/sigs/ccc/people/biolinks/russell/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf, ldg)
Strategic stability in … for the entire world.
US action key to credibility – 3 Reasons
First, legitimacy
O’Hanlon 2011
[MICHAEL O’HANLON is the Director of Research and a Senior Fellow of Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution. Council on Foreign Relations (2011-05-01). The New Arab Revolt: What Happened, What It Means, and What Comes Next . Council on Foreign Relations. Kindle Edition.]jap
On Libya, Obama has already … civil war in North Africa.
Second, it shows the US is willing to put action behind words
Singh 2011
[Michael Singh, former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council, The Consequences of Inaction in Libya http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=32079&pageid=16&pagename=Opinion]jap
Inaction also strikes a blow … have not matched these words.
Third, ensures long term stability
AP 8/23
[Jim Kuhnhenn, What's next in Libya key to US politics, economy, http://www.taiwannews.com.tw/etn/news_content.php?id=1686492, AD 8/23/11]jap
The triumph of Libyan …. determine their own destiny."
Credibility in the Middle East is key to overall hegemony
- Alliances and military cooperation
Nakamura et al., CRS Foreign Affairs analyst, 2009
(Kennon H., “U.S. Public Diplomacy: Background and Current Issues”, 12-18, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R40989.pdf, ldg)
The attitudes and perceptions of … partnerships will be possible.
2. Independently, Libyan credibility is key to strategic cooperation
Hamid 8/26/2011
[Shadi Hamid is director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. Libya may be in America's vital interest after all, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/26/libya-may-be-in-americas-vital-interest-after-all/]jap
That said, the U.S. decision, … Not yet, at least.
Libyan strategic cooperation is key to US power projection – a failed Libya would become a haven for terrorists that destabilizes all of the Middle East AND oil markets killing the global economy
Pack 2011
[Jason, researcher of Libya at Oxford University, has worked in Tripoli and Washington, D.C., on strengthening U.S.-Libya relations. Libya Is Too Big to Fail, March 18, 2011 http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/03/18/libya_is_too_big_to_fail?page=full, AD 9-11-2011]jap
But a brief review of Libya's …. to be allowed to fail.
Advantage GSU AFF – 1AC – ADVANTAGE TWO
Libyan stability efforts will fail because of weapons availability – increases conflict post-Gadaffi
Johnson 2011
[LTC (Ret.) David E. A. Johnson, Libya and Catastrophic Success, Center for Advanced defense Studies, http://www.c4ads.org/global-security-monitor/libya-and-catastrophic-success]jap
The immediate objective … countries and Southern Europe
Scenario One: Economy
Global economic crisis causes war-strong statistical support
Royal, director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010
(Jedediah, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal, and Political Perspectives, pg 213-215, ldg)
Less intuitive is how periods of …. considered ancillary to those views.
Defense doesn’t apply-growth key to solve social pressures which spillover to international conflict
Strauss-Kahn, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund, 2009
(Dominique, “Economic Stability, Economic Cooperation, and Peace - the Role of the IMF,” 10-23, http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2009/102309.htm, ldg)
Let me stress that the crisis is …. of weakened institutions.
Instability keeps civilian oil workers out of Libya – killing Libyan oil production
LRC, 6/13/11
(Libyan Revolution Central, “Libyan rebel NOC head says oil output will take months to restore,” http://feb17.info/news/libyan-rebel-noc-head-says-oil-output-will-take-months-to-restore/, CW, accessed on 8/2/11)
Libyan oil production … for output to be restored.
OPEC can’t keep up with Libya’s lack of oil production – leads to global double dip recession
Cala 2012
(Andres, August 12, 2011 “Rising demand for oil could lead to global double-dip recession,” http://www.abc12.com/story/15258781/rising-demand-for-oil-could-lead-to-global-double-dip-recession, d/a 8-17-11, zml)
When the global economy slows, …. still have a gap."
Scenario Two: Terrorism
A nuclear strike by al Qaeda causes US-China-Russia war, environmental collapse, and extinction
Morgan, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, 2009
(Dennis, World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race Futures, Volume 41, Issue 10, December, ldg)
In a remarkable website on nuclear war, ….use of strategic weapons
Lack of a central force post-Gadaffi leaves a dangerous power vacuum that will be exploited by Al Qaeda
Schmitt, senior writer who covers terrorism and national security issues for The New York Times, 11
[Eric, NY Times, February 27, 2011, “The Vacuum After Qaddafi”, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/world/africa/27qaddafi.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1, 7/5/11, atl]
“At the appropriate time, we ….. as some might suspect.”
Libyan uprising has provided Al Qaeda with momentum and weapons – solving for power vacuums in Libya is key
Reuters 9/6/2011
[EU terror chief: Arab Spring poses risks, http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4118273,00.html, AD 9/9/2011]jap
The Arab uprisings have …. transition in such countries.
Libyan nuclear weapons material poses the greatest risk for a terrorist nuclear attack – the material can fall into the wrong hands during instable times
The Guardian 8/25/11
[Picking up the pieces in Libya, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/25/picking-up-pieces-in-libya, AD 8/31/11]jap
But we also hear real worries …. set up to campaign against.
Libya Aff – 1AC – SOLVENCY
Plan leads to stability
Stabilisation Unit 2010
(“Stabilisation Issue Note: Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration”, http://www.stabilisationunit.gov.uk/stabilisation-and-conflict-resources/thematic/doc_details/20-stabilisation-issue-note-disarmament-demobilisation-and-reintegration.html, ldg)
Stabilisation is about … longer-term peacebuilding
Plan in Libya solves – Kosovo proves
Morrissey, New School International Affairs MA, 2011
(Daniel, “Disarming Libya: The Next Big NATO Project”, 7-21, http://policymic.com/articles/disarming-libya-the-next-big-nato-project, ldg)
The NATO intervention in …. and democratic society.
Only the US can do it – no other actor implements it correctly
Moran 2004
[Roger Moran, Deputy Director for Peacekeeping Bureau of International Organization Affairs United States Department of State, http://www.regeringen.se/content/1/c6/06/53/96/bda90a70.pdf, AD 8/23/11]jap
There has been a tendency…. better the situation.
Reintegration is key to stability – premature removal allows for oppositional movements to continue
Serwer 8/23/2011
[Daniel, professorial lecturer at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and a Scholar at the Middle East Institute, Planning for Libya 2.0, http://www.peacefare.net/?p=4341, AD 8/23/2011]jap
Establishing transparent, …. has posed knotty issues.
Libya will erupt into a power vacuum because the entire region has been militarized – the United States is the essential lynchpin for Libyan stability
Newman 8/22/11
[Andy, Swindon based political activist. Branch Secretary of Wiltshire and Swindon (W15) branch of the GMB, delegate to the Southern Regional Council of the GMB; and GMB delegate to South West TUC Executive. WILL LIBYA NOW DESCEND FURTHER INTO CIVIL WAR? http://www.socialistunity.com/?p=8435, AD 8/29/11]jap
As I predicted at the outset once the …. war is not the result.
GSU AFF – 1AC – PLAN
The United States federal government should implement a Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration program in Libya.
