Inherency
Obama not doing anything to help Coptic Christians
Smith and Clark, GW IR professor, 11
(Christopher, US House of Representatives (R-NJ), Committee on Foreign Affairs member, and Michele, George Washington University international affairs adjunct professor, "Minority at Risk: Coptic Christians in Egypt," July 2011, CQ Transcriptions, l/n, accessed 9-22-11, mss)
SMITH: Chairman Franks, thank you so very much. ….- I have not yet seen it.
Fear of persecution is spurring an exodus of Coptic Christians from Egypt- risks undermining stabile democracy
Azimi, Bidoun senior editor, 11
(Negar, Bidoun is a literary magazine about the Middle East and its diasporas, "Christian and Egyptian but feeling unwanted; As the revolution evolves, Copts feel greater anxiety and seek to leave country," International Herald Tribune, 8-27-11, l/n, accessed 9-23-11, mss)
Many Copts worried that the democratic … most to build its new democracy.
1AC – Plan
Plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase civil society support to non-governmental organizations that support religious freedom for Christians in Egypt.
Contention Two: Egypt
Fear of persecution is spurring an exodus of Christians from Egypt- rest of the region will model
Bandow, Cato Institute senior fellow, 11
(Doug, Senior Fellow in International Religious Persecution at the Institute on Religion and Public Policy. A former Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan, "What Kind of Revolution?" 7-13-11, American Spectator, spectator.org/archives/2011/07/13/what-kind-of-revolution/print, accessed 10-10-11, mss)
Shea worries about "a mass exodus… may ultimately go the rest of the Middle East.
That exacerbates clash of civilizations- spurs destructive conflicts
Allen, NCR senior correspondent, 10
(John L. JR., “In Middle East, democracy is the 'Great Jihad,'” National Catholic Reporter, 10-13-2010, http://ncronline.org/blogs/ncr-today/middle-east-democracy-great-jihad, 9/9/11, atl)
There’s nothing like the realistic … Arab Muslim East and the Christian West.”
These conflicts go nuclear
Macwhirter, Sunday Herald award-winning political commentator, 6
(Iain, "McConnell's dreams for Trident could put Brown in the history books," Sunday Herald, 9-17-6, l/n, accessed 9-24-11, mss)
In the age of climate change and global …nuclear weapons all the greater.
AND- Causes Mid-east war- two internal links:
1. Stability- Christian-Muslim tensions are the biggest threat to Egyptian stability
Kirkpatrick, NY Times staff, 11
(David, "Egypt's Christians Fear Violence as Changes Embolden Islamists," NY Times, 5-31-11, l/n, accessed 9-23-11, mss)
Like many similar stories … criticizing a dictator. ''It is the next big battle.''
Farr, Religious Freedom Project director, 11
(Thomas, Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs, "Prioritizing International Religious Freedom in US Foreign Policy," foreignaffairs.house.gov/112/far060311.pdf, accessed 10-10-11, mss)
But there is another reason the American …, including the kind of terrorism that has reached the American homeland.”
Success of Egyptian transition key to Mid-east peace
Harrison, Washington political science lecturer, 11
(Ewan, “Egypt and the world after Mubarak”, 3-2-11, http://www.stlbeacon.org/voices/in-the-news/108596-egypt-and-the-world-after-mubarak, ldg)
The most tantalizing questions raised by ... This is a prize worth taking risks to achieve.
2. Extremism- Coptic Christians are the only hope for countering radical Islamists
Abaza and Nahkla, Washington Institute visiting fellow, 5
(Khairi, Washington Institute visiting fellow, and Mark, Washington Institute research assistant, "The Copts and Their Political Implications in Egypt," PolicyWatch #1039, 10-25-05, www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=2386, accessed 9-23-11, mss)
Christians in Egypt are a main …. an extremist Islamist takeover by democratic means.
Collapses Egypt-Israel relations which are key to Mid-east stability
Kohan, Israel Antitrust Authority, 11
(Gabriel, “Israel and Egypt's Precarious Future: A Victory for Iran?” March 2011, http://www.policymic.com/articles/israel-and-egypt-s-precarious-future-a-victory-for-iran, ldg)
The future of the relationship between … in the hands of Egypt’s future leaders.
Mid-east war goes nuclear
Russell, Naval Postgraduate School National Security professor, 2009
(James, "Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Nuclear War and Escalation in the Middle East", http://www.nps.edu/academics/sigs/ccc/people/biolinks/russell/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf, ldg)
Strategic stability in the … risk for the entire world.
Most probable scenario for global great power war
Ferguson, Harvard history professor, 7
(Niall, "This heat is a recipe for Armageddon," The Telegraph, 6-17-7, www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3640692/This-heat-is-a-recipe-for-Armageddon.html, accessed 9-27-11, mss)
For some time I have been warning that …, and you have a recipe for Armageddon.
Contention Three: Syria
Protest movements are growing stronger but have yet to reach critical mass
Harling and Malley, ICG MENA program director, 11
(Peter, ICG project director for Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, based in Damascus, and Robert, International Crisis Group Middle East and North Africa programme director, "Syria behaving as its own worst enemy," Washington Post, 7-16-11, gulfnews.com/mobile/opinions/columnists/syria-behaving-as-its-own-worst-enemy-1.838832, accessed 9-24-11, mss)
The protest movement in Syria … regime is working overtime to accelerate its demise.
Plan emboldens Christians in Syria- sends a signal that the US will look out for post-dictator Christians
Allen, NCR senior correspondent, 11
(John L. JR., "Liberating the Christian voice in the Arab Spring," National Catholic Reporter, 8-12-11, ncronline.org/blogs/all-things-catholic/liberating-christian-voice-arab-spring, accessed 9-22-11, mss)
Anti-Mubarak forces in Egypt like … they're basically on their own.
That’s key- Syrian minorities are watching Christians in Egypt to determine how post-dictatorships treat minorities
Martin, Globe and Mail Middle East bureau chief, 11
(Patrick, "Dissecting Syria," Globe and Mail, l/n, accessed 9-24-11, mss)
It's an attempt by the Assad regime to give an … they have made up the Assad alliance of faithful supporters.
Collapse is inevitable- accelerating it is key to prevent regional sectarian conflict
Yassin-Kassab, Pulse Media co-editor, 11
(Robin, author of The Road from Damascus, "The Fall of the House of Assad," 6-10-11, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/06/10/the_fall_of_the_house_of_assad?page=0,1, accessed 8-4-11, mss)
The catalyst in Syria may be the … not be able to bring Syria back under its heel.
Sectarian fragmentation leads to WMD dispersal
UPI, 11
(United Press International, "Syria 'on radar' as WMD source," 8-27-11, l/n, accessed 9-26-11, mss)
U.S. and Israeli officials say there is fear a … closely," a U.S. official told the Journal Saturday.
This includes easily deployed bio-weapons
Shoham, Bar-Ilan University Center for Strategic Studies research associate, 2
(Dany, holds his doctorate in medical microbiology, "Poisoned Missiles: Syria's Doomsday Deterrent," Middle East Quarterly, Fall 2002, www.meforum.org/510/poisoned-missiles-syrias-doomsday-deterrent
In regard to anthrax, Syria has some ongoing …s possessor or developer by the United States.[24]
Causes extinction
Steinbruner, Brookings senior fellow, 97
(John, National Academy of Sciences Committee on International Security and Arms Control Vice Chair, Foreign Policy, Winter, "Biological weapons: a plague upon all houses," infotrac)
Although human pathogens are often lumped …contagion of this sort but not necessarily its outer limit.
AND- Prolonged instability causes Turkish invasion
Cagaptay, Washington Institute Turkish Research Program director, 11
[Soner, Ph.D. from Yale University, visiting professor at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, "What If Turkey Invaded Syria?" Hurriyet Daily News, 7-10-11, www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1672, accessed 8-1-11, mss]
Turkish-Syrian ties are unraveling. … would nearly revolutionize the AKP's regional agenda.
Draws in NATO and escalates to global war
The American Dream, 11
("Could we Actually See a war between Syria and Turkey," 6-28-11, endoftheamericandream.com/archives/could-we-actually-see-a-war-between-syria-and-turkey, accessed 9-26-11, mss)
In recent days, there have been persistent rumors … When it does, let us just hope that World War III does not erupt as a result.
Contention Four: Solvency
Civil society support key to ending persecution of Copts- solves Egyptian stability
Inboden, UT Center for International Security and Law distinguished scholar, 11
(Will, University of Texas (Austin) Center for International Security and Law distinguished scholar, UT public affairs professor, Foreign Policy contributing editor, and former National Security Council strategic planning senior director, State Department Policy Planning Staff member, and Office of International Religious Freedom special adviser, "Religious Freedom in Egypt," Foreign Policy, 5-9-11, shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/05/09/religous_freedom_in_egypt, accessed 10-10-11, mss)
This brings up the second type … country's subsequent course, for good or for ill.
US action is key to solve- AND our spotlight effect overwhelms any backlash or say no arguments
Hawthorne, Washington Institute Arab politics research fellow, 1
(Amy, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Council on Foreign Relations term member, Carnegie Endowment specialist with expertise in domestic Arab politics, human rights, and the possibility of democratic change in the Arab world, Arab Reform Bulletin editor, from 1996 to 2000 Hawthorne was senior program officer for the Middle East at the International Foundation for Election Systems, a U.S.-based NGO, where she designed and managed democracy promotion programs across the Arab world, "Promoting Religious Freedom in the Middle East, Post-September 11," testimony before the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom, www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC07.php?CID=10, accessed 9-23-11, mss)
Specifically, this means that the United States will need to shed … so as to be constructive, productive members of the global community.
