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Contention One: Credibility

Double standard in Bahrain wrecks US legitimacy – action is key to Iranian cooperation
Bayyenat, contributor to Foreign Policy in Focus and political analyst, 11
[Abolghasem, June 10, 2011, “Bahrain: Beyond the U.S. - Iran Rivalry”, http://theglobalrealm.com/2011/06/10/bahrain-beyond-the-u-s-iran-rivalry/, 7/17/11, atl]

The popular uprising in Bahrain AND programs and human rights violations.

No alt causes – Bahraini inaction creates a self-fulfilling prophesy of credibility loss and Iran expansionism
Jacobs, policy analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs, 11
[Joshua, June 1, 2011, “Blunder in Bahrain”, http://www.gulfinstitute.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=148:blunder-in-bahrain-&catid=26:articles&Itemid=23, 8/1/11, atl]

There is no country affected AND and in negating Iranian propaganda.

Specifically, Bahrain is key for Iranian dominance
Al-Tamimi, contributor to the American Thinker, 11
[Aymenn, June 19, 2011, “Bahrain: Can the U.S. Do anything?” http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/06/bahrain_can_the_us_do_anything.html, 7/31/11, atl]

Indeed, fears of Iranian designs AND Iran from realizing such goals.

No chance of defense – credibility gaps encourage regional rivalries
Wehrey, senior policy analyst with RAND 10
[Frederic, RAND National Defense Research Institute, “The Iraq Effect,” http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2010/RAND_MG892.pdf, 7/30/11, atl]

That said, despite the AND the years following the Iraq War.

Iran expansionism leads to instability – leading to Middle Eastern and Latin American proliferation
Maginnis, national security and foreign affairs analyst, 11
[Robert, retired Army lieutenant colonel, July 12, 2011, “US Paving the Way for Iran Hegemony”, http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=44787, 7/17/11, atl]

President Barack Obama’s wrongheaded Iran AND through its nonstop arms sales.

Specifically, inexperience and rapid spread skews decision making – making nuclear war inevitable
Horowitz, Professor of Political Science at University of Pennsylvania, 09
[Michael Horowitz (Former Emory debater and NDT Champion), “The Spread of Nuclear Weapons and International Conflict: Does Experience Matter?” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Volume 53 Number 2, April 2009 pg. 234-257, 7/31/11, atl]

Learning as states gain experience AND the preferences of the adopter. 

Benefits stop at the Middle East – proliferation makes miscalculation inevitable and sparks multiple scenarios for nuclear war
Russell, Research associate in Georgetown University’s institute for the study of diplomacy, 06
[Richard L., September 1, 2006, Military Review, “Military Planning for a Middle East Stockpiled with Nuclear Weapons”, 8/21/11, ADS]

How would the Middle East be AND that exists in Pakistan today.
 
And, proliferation cascades fast – exacerbating current tensions
Cirincione, Associate Director at the Non-Proliferation Project for Carnagie Endowment, 06
[Joseph, summer, SAIS Review, “A New Non-Proliferation Strategy”, ldg)

The danger posed by the acquisition AND and territorial disputes still unresolved.

Empowering Bahraini Shiites fuels regional change and is modeled by Iran – making them susceptible to western influence
Bhadrakumar, career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service, 11
[MK, May 31, 2011, “Decoding Obama’s Bahrain puzzle”, http://theglobalrealm.com/2011/05/31/decoding-obamas-bahrain-puzzle/, 7/17/11, atl]

On the other hand, the speech AND be the mother of all reforms.

Contention two: Media

Recent repressions have ignited Shiite minorities – making conflict inevitable
Solomon, Reuter’s foreign policy correspondent, 11
[Erika, Reuters, April 7, 2011, “Analysis: Bahrain's security now may cost it stability later”, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/07/us-bahrain-security-idUSTRE73639H20110407, 7/19/11, atl]

A brutal crackdown by Bahrain's AND the opposite of what it intended."

Solving secretarial violence in Bahrain is key to avoid oil shocks and tears in Saudi relations
Quinn, foreign policy journalist for Reuters, 11
[Andrew, March 16, 2011, “Bahrain crisis exposes US-Saudi Arabia rift”, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/15/us-saudi-usa-analysis-idUSTRE72E89O20110315, 8/24/11, atl]

Saudi Arabia's military intervention in AND an occupation,” he told Reuters. 

No risk of defense – Bahraini instability collapses the Saudi economy – guaranteeing shocks
Paiva, member of the Future Directions International Research: Indian Ocean research program, 11
[Bruno de, June 8, 2011, “Bahrain Instability Continues after Martial Law Lifted”, http://www.futuredirections.org.au/publications/indian-ocean/29-indian-ocean-swa/91-bahrain-instability-continues-after-martial-law-lifted.html, 7/18/11, atl]

Bahrain ended 11 weeks of AND the Persian Gulf at risk. 

Unchecked supply shocks cause great-power nuclear war
Qasem, politics doctoral candidate for Pompeu University, 07
[Yasin, “The Coming Warfare of Oil Shortage”, 7-9, http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_islam_ya_070709_the_coming_warfare_o.htm, 8/2/11, atl]

Recognizing the strategic value AND pursues of national interests are high. 

Gulf shocks wreck the global economy
Art, Christian A. Herter Professor of International Relations at Brandeis University, 08
[Robert J., “SELECTIVE ENGAGEMENT AFTER BUSH”, Finding Our Way: Debating American Grand Strategy, 2008, 7/30/11, atl]

Preserving assured access to stable AND to be the regional hegemon in the Gulf.
 
Global economic crisis causes war–strong statistical support
Royal, director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010
(Jedediah, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal, and Political Perspectives, pg 213-215, ldg)

Less intuitive is how periods AND be considered ancillary to those views. 

Free media solves – 2 ways

1. Corruption
   Krishna, Director, National Council of Education Research and Training, 06
   [Kumar, 2006, “Promoting Independent Media: Strategies for Democracy Assistance”, Lynne Rienner Publishers, 7, 8/4/11, atl]

Fourth, there is a widespread recognition AND responsive political culture and public institutions

Specifically, media allows balancing of opinions – quelling civil conflict
Krishna, Director, National Council of Education Research and Training, 06
[Kumar, 2006, “Promoting Independent Media: Strategies for Democracy Assistance”, Lynne Rienner Publishers, 6, 8/4/11, atl]

Second, tragic events in Rwanda AND promoting tolerance and peaceful coexistence.

2. Media creates an autocratic paradox making solvency inevitable while preventing repression
Shirky, Professor of New Media at New York University, 11
[Clay, “THE POLITICAL POWER OF SOCIAL MEDIA: TECHNOLOGY, THE PUBLIC SPHERE, AND POLITICAL CHANGE”, Council on Foreign Relations, January/February 2011, 8/4/11, atl]

This condition of shared awareness AND or strengthen countries’ public spheres.

This is empirically true in Bahrain – they won’t shut down the internet
Shirky, Professor of New Media at New York University, 11
[Clay, “THE POLITICAL POWER OF SOCIAL MEDIA: TECHNOLOGY, THE PUBLIC SPHERE, AND POLITICAL CHANGE”, Council on Foreign Relations, January/February 2011, 8/4/11, atl]

Authoritarian states are increasingly shutting AND or long periods are constrained.

Plan: The United States federal government should provide OpenMesh technology to advocacy groups located in Bahrain.

Contention Four: Solvency

Open mesh technology allows for internet freedom
LaMonica, CNN political correspondent, 11
[Gabe, CNN, June 17, 2011, “Starting a revolution with technology”, http://www.cnn.com/2011/TECH/innovation/06/17/mesh.technology.revolution/index.html?hpt=hp_c2, 8/1/11, atl

Shervin Pishevar, founder of Social AND unbound by topographical and state barriers. 

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New solvency card on the media advantage:
Takes down the government monopoly of culture and information – equalizing difference
Desmukh, Karachi-based journalist and foreign contributor for Foreign Policy, 10
[Fahad, Foreign Policy, September 21, 2010, “The Internet in Bahrain: breaking the monopoly of information”, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/09/21/bahrain_government_vs_the_internet, 7/16/11, atl]

Contention Two – Smart Power

Current complacency in Bahrain is wrecking US legitimacy – making military conflict inevitable
Bayyenat, contributor to Foreign Policy in Focus and political analyst, 11
[Abolghasem, June 10, 2011, “Bahrain: Beyond the U.S. - Iran Rivalry”, http://theglobalrealm.com/2011/06/10/bahrain-beyond-the-u-s-iran-rivalry/, 7/17/11, atl]

The popular uprising in Bahrain  AND unfolding history in the Middle East.

Legitimacy is an intrinsic aspect of US power necessary for foreign cooperation and maintaining American leadership
Ikenberry, Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton, 2004
(John, “Liberal Realism: The Foundations of a Democratic Foreign Policy”, The National Interest, Fall, lexis, ldg)

The Bush Administration's disregard for  AND into right and obedience into duty." 

And, collapse of leadership is inevitable without reframing of Middle East foreign policy towards smart power – pushing for social media is key
Fettner, Intellectual Heritage professor – Temple University, 11
[Peter, August 26, 2011, “Investigative Analysis: Soft Power in the Middle East – Reforming American Foreign Policy”, http://www.presstorm.com/2011/08/soft-power-in-the-middle-east-reforming-american-foreign-policy/, 9/11/11, atl]

President Obama and Secretary of  AND forced the United States to respond.

Specifically, strong US legitimacy is necessary to tackle global problems
Cottrell, Ph.D., Political Science, University of Wisconsin, 11
[Patrick, “Hope or Hype? Legitimacy and US Leadership in a Global Age”, Foreign Policy Analysis (2011) 7, 337–358, 9/21/11, atl]

Legitimacy is also inextricably linked  AND several scholars (Leffler and Legro 2008). 7

And, internet strategies are key to revitalize smart power in the new age of power politics
Hallams, Lecturer in Defence Studies at King's College London, 10
[Ellen, “DIGITAL DIPLOMACY: THE INTERNET, THE BATTLE FOR IDEAS & US FOREIGN POLICY”, Political Studies Association Annual Conference, Edinburgh, 30 March, 2010., 9/10/11, atl]

Such incidents highlight the extraordinary  AND information strategies and public diplomacy.

Thus we isolate two scenarios:
First is China relations – smart power is key – this solves climate change, regional conflict, and global problems
Center for Strategic and International Studies, 09
[William S. Cohen, Maurice R. Greenburg, and Carola McGiffert, March 2009, “Smart Power in US-China Relations” Report of the CSIS Commission on China, 9/12/11, atl]

As a general principle, the  AND though not inevitable, is indispensable. 

Managing and containing regional war key to prevent several scenarios of global nuclear war
Bosco, Foreign Policy senior editor, 2006
(David, “World War III: foretastes and fears; SUPERPOWERS' ABILITY TO CONTROL HOT SPOTS TO BE SORELY TESTED”,  San Jose Mercury News, 7-30, lexis, ldg)

The understanding that small, violent  AND world learned about managing conflict?

Warming is real and anthropogenic – we must act now to prevent extinction
Morgan, Professor of Current Affairs at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, South Korea, 09
[Dennis Ray, “World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race”, Futures, Volume 41, Issue 10, December 2009, Pages 683-693, ScienceDirect, 9/12/11, atl]

As horrifying as the scenario  AND be a point of no return.

Scenario Two: Cyber-terrorism
Smart power is key to solve
Barnet, Ph.D. Professor Emeritus, U.S. Naval War College, 09
[Roger, “Dealing with Today’s Asymmetric Threat to U.S. and Global Security”, Symposium Three: Employing Smart Power, 2009, 10/4/11, atl]

There is no better example  AND and tools applicable to cybersecurity.

Defense doesn’t apply – coordinated cyber attack is expected by 2012
Daily Mail, 11
[January 10, 2011, “'Perfect storm' of cyber attacks could lead to global catastrophe on the scale of a pandemic, world leaders warned”, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1347872/Perfect-storm-cyber-attacks-lead-global-catastrophe.html, 10/4/11, atl]

Coordinated attacks on critical  AND by nation states in future warfare.' 

The threat of cyber warfare is real- countries are increasing attacks against the US- increases the risk of nuclear major power wars and collapses agriculture and the power grid
Habiger, Retired Air Force General, 10
[Eugene, “CYBERWARFARE AND CYBERTERRORISM: THE NEED FOR A NEW U.S. STRATEGIC APPROACH,” The Cyber Security Institute, 10/4/11,atl]

However, there are reasons to  AND more at risk of a major war.

And the plan allows for the best delivery of tech – key to efficiency and coordination
Wong, Director for Global Internet Freedom Project – Center for Democracy & Technology, 11
 [Cynthia M., March 14, 2011, “An Open Letter to Congress About Internet Freedom”, http://mobileactive.tumblr.com/, 10/6/11, atl]

The State Department, and particularly the  AND most strategic and most appropriate entity. 

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New Impacts on Credibility:

Iran expansionism causes instability and funds Latin American extremist organizations – leading to Middle Eastern and Latin American proliferation, and funds Mexican drug trafficking
Maginnis, national security and foreign affairs analyst, 11
[Robert, retired Army lieutenant colonel, July 12, 2011, “US Paving the Way for Iran Hegemony”, http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=44787, 7/17/11, atl]

President Barack Obama’s wrongheaded Iran AND through its nonstop arms sales.

Mexican drug trafficking leads to terrorist entrance into the US
Placido, Assistant Administrator for Intelligence United States Drug Enforcement Administration, 2010
(Anthony, “TRANSNATIONAL DRUG ENTERPRISES (PART II): THREATS TO GLOBAL
STABILITY AND U.S. POLICY RESPONSES”, 3-3, http://www.justice.gov/dea/pubs/cngrtest/ct030310.pdf, ldg)

Perhaps the most prescient example AND higher for the international community.

Nuclear war
Mohamed Sid-Ahmed, Al-Ahram Weekly political analyst, ‘04
[Al-Ahram Weekly, "Extinction!" 8/26, no. 705,  http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm]

What would be the consequences of a AND planet, we will all be losers.

===== (% class="Underline" %)Round 6 vs. OU GLAff: Liberty LS(%%) ===== ===== (% class="Underline" %)Round 6 Tournament: Shirley(%%) ===== ===== (% class="Underline" %)vs: OU GL(%%) ===== ===== (% class="Underline" %)Judge: Polin(%%) ===== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== (% class="Underline" %)Plan Text: USFG should provide media assistance to opposition groups in Bahrain(%%) ====== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== (% class="Underline" %)1ac Advantages: Oil shocks (Economy), Smart Power (China Relations, Warming, Cyberterror)(%%) ====== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== (% class="Underline" %)2ac Offense(%%) ====== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) T: Not G2G, NGO’s (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Case: empiricism good, calculation good, growth solves sustainability, economic rationality good, no root cause, Bahrain wants the plan (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)K: our impacts are true, nuclear war first, internet = radical democracy, solve ethical engagement to the other, micro politics fails, violence low now, intervention good, realism inevitable (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== (% class="Underline" %)1ar Strategy(%%) ====== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) T: plan = normal means, no ground loss or bi-directionality (% class="MsoNormal" %) Case: empiricism good, economic collapse causes war, growth solves warming, smart power cooperation solves criticism of US fopo, we don’t talk about war on terrorism, government can’t crackdown and no incentive (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) K: 1ac = empowerment of Shia’s, perm solves the system, consequences, nuclear war first, no root cause of war, states always act in self-interest, violence decreasing (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== (% class="Underline" %)2ar Strategy(%%) ====== (% class="MsoNormal" %) T: normal means, no in round abuse, (% class="MsoNormal" %) Case: economic growth sustainable and prevents war, empiricism, violence decreasing, warming (% class="MsoNormal" %) K: perm solves the impact to the K, intervention good in context of the aff ===== (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration:none" %) (%%) ===== ===== (% class="Underline" %)Aff: Liberty IS(%%) ===== ===== (% class="Underline" %)Round # 4 Tournament: Shirley(%%) ===== ===== (% class="Underline" %)vs: Iowa AC(%%) ===== ===== (% class="Underline" %)Judge: Herndon(%%) ===== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== (% class="Underline" %)Plan Text(%%) ====== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Cyber stuff for Bahrain (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== (% class="Underline" %)1ac Advantages(%%) ====== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Media oil shock (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Iran (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %) -Terror (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %) -Prolif (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== (% class="Underline" %)2ac Offense(%%) ====== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Link turns (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Winners win (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Soft/smart power add-on (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== (% class="Underline" %)1ar Strategy(%%) ====== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Winners win (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Solyndra thumper (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== (% class="Underline" %)2ar Strategy(%%) ====== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Solyndra thumper (% class="MsoNormal" %) Smart power- add on (% class="MsoNormal" %) Winners win ===== (% class="Underline" %)Aff: Liberty LS(%%) ===== ===== (% class="Underline" %)Round # 2 Tournament: Shirley(%%) ===== ===== (% class="Underline" %)vs: Manchester GS(%%) ===== ===== (% class="Underline" %)Judge: Jacob Thompson(%%) ===== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== (% class="Underline" %)Plan Text(%%) ====== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)The United States federal government should provide OpenMesh technology to advocacy groups located in Bahrain (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== (% class="Underline" %)1ac Advantages(%%) ====== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Credibility (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %) -Iran prolif (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %) -Mexican prolif (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Media (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %) -oil shocks~-~-> econ collapse (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %) -Equalize difference (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== (% class="Underline" %)2ac Offense(%%) ====== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Iraq war ad-on (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== (% class="Underline" %)1ar Strategy(%%) ====== (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== (% class="Underline" %)2ar Strategy(%%) ====== ===== (% class="Underline" %)Perm (%%) =====

= 2AC – Round 2{{id name="_Toc308813830"/}} = = Bahrain Aff – A2 – Topicality – Not DA = (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Counter interpretation – democracy assistance is material support == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt" %)**Acuto, Asia-Pacific College of Diplomacy PhD Researcher, 2008** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Michele “Wilson Victorious? Understanding Democracy Promotion in the Midst of a Backlash”, Alternatives: Global, Local, Political, October, ebsco, ldg) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)Democracy, of course, is a notoriously….. and nongovernmental organizations like think tanks. (% align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:center" %) == We are substantial and direct – media aid is civil society == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt" %)**Carothers, director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program, 2009 ** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)(Thomas, “Revitalizing U.S. Democracy Assistance the challenge of USAID, 10-29, http:~/~/www.carnegieendowment.org/files/revitalizing_democracy_assistance.pdf, ldg) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)USAID’s democracy(% class="Underline" %) and governance parties, (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)….. (% class="Underline" %)and democratic consensus building. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %) == Internet is media == == Google Dictionary == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [http:~/~/www.google.com/search?sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&q=openmesh+free+media#hl=en&safe=off&q=media&tbs=dfn:1&tbo=u&sa=X&ei=1C9yToWGE6rd0QHD_9iwCg&ved=0CCMQkQ4&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_cp.&fp=ea9a26852ee014a8&biw=1125&bih=715, 9/15/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) me·di·a (% class="MsoNormal" %) noun /ˈmēdēə/  media, plural………, and (% class="Underline" style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)the Internet(%%)) regarded collectively (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %) = Case = (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="FreeForm" %) (% style="font-family:~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~"" %)**No palestine vote - EU countries won’t vote** (% class="FreeForm" %) (% style="font-family:~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~"" %)**BBC News, 11** (% class="FreeForm" %) (% style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~"" %)[Barbara Plett, November 3, 2011, “(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"Times New Roman~" ~"serif~"; letter-spacing: -0.35pt" %)'New setback' for Palestinian hopes on UN membership”, [[(% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"Times New Roman~" ~"serif~"; letter-spacing: -0.35pt; font-size: 10pt" %)http:~~/~~/www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15587250>>http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15587250]](% style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~"" %), 11/4/11, alt] (% class="FreeForm" %) (% style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~"" %) (% class="FreeForm" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt; font-family:~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~"" %)A UN diplomat says (% style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~";background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)__the UK, __(% style="font-size:7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)….. (% style="font-size:10.0pt; font-family:~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~"" %)__decision to parliament on Wednesday.__ == == == The Kritik assumes that proliferation is good- our aff is an impact turn == (% class="MsoNormal" %) Hugh **Gusterson**, PhD in anthropology at Stanford University and professor at George Mason University, **1999** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (“Nuclear Weapons and the Other in the Western Imagination”, (% class="MsoNormal" %) http:~/~/people.reed.edu/~~ahm/Courses/Stan-PS-314-2009-Q1_PNP/Syllabus/EReadings/Gusterson1999Nuclear.pdf) RKB (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)Finally, while this article (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)….. (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)with quite different policy positions. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" style="page-break-after:avoid;mso-outline-level:2" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:14.0pt;mso-bidi-font-style:italic" %)**The 1AC does not presume there is objective or universal knowledge, but empiricism should be used to guide political action in the mean time.** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt" %)**Sherry, law professor University of Minnesota, 1996** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Suzanna, “ARTICLE: THE SLEEP OF REASON”, Georgetown Law Journal, lexis, ldg) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)In order to make even such a ….. (% style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)__to give that epistemology content__(%%)__.__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:13.0pt" %)**Physical and social factors generate violence – don’t buy their claims that the K is the root cause** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt" %)**Dixon, Professor in the Centre for Environment and Business University of Waterloo, 2001** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Thomas, “Environment, Scarcity, and Violence.”, pg 7, ldg) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)Skeptics argue that (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)….. (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)rs contributing to that violence. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:13.0pt" %)**Ethical policymaking must be grounded in consequences** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt" %)**Isaac, political science professor Indiana University, 2002** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Jeffrey, “Ends, Means, and Politics, Dissent Magazine, Spring 2002, ldg) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)Power is not a dirty word or an ….. (%%)__it (% style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)undermines political effectiveness(%%).__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Democratic complacency on Bahrain causes spurs Iraq conflict against the US == == Habibi, professor of economics of the Middle East in Brandeis University's Crown Center for Middle East Studies, 11 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Nader, April 25, 2011, “U.S. Silence on Bahrain Crackdown Ignores Iraq Factor”, http:~/~/www.iranreview.org/content/Documents/U_S_Silence_on_Bahrain_Crackdown_Ignores_Iraq_Factor.htm, 7/20/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)Current(% class="Underline" %) U.S. (% style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)policy toward (% style="font-size:7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)….. (% class="BoldUnderline" %)the grievances of (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)Bahrain's Shiites(% class="Underline" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="FreeForm" %) (% style="font-family:~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~"" %)**This goes nuclear** (% class="FreeForm" %) (% style="font-family:~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~"" %)**Corsi, Political Science PhD from Harvard, 07** (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Jerome, January 8, 2007, “War with Iran is imminent”, http:~/~/www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=53669, 11/4/11, alt] (% class="FreeForm" %) (% style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~"" %) (% class="FreeForm" %) (% style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~"; background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)__If__(% style="font-size: 8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~"" %) a broader (% style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~"; background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)__war breaks out in __(% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)….. (% style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~";background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)__as World Wars I and II began__(% style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~"" %)__.__ = {{id name="_Toc308813941"/}}Bahrain Aff – A2 – Feminism = (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Perm do the plan and all noncompetitive parts of the alt – alt alone fails == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt" %)**Donnelly et al., Denver political science professor, 2005** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Jack, “Feminism and International Relations: Which way(s) Forward?”, [[http:~~/~~/www.allacademic.com/meta/p71431_index.html>>http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p71431_index.html]], DOA: 10-24-11, ldg) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" style="margin-left:0in" %) (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 8.0pt" %)Over the past two decades,(% style="font-size:7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %) ….. (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 8.0pt" %) feminist work from the past decade. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:13.0pt" %)**Extinction outweighs the K** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt" %)**Wapner, professor and director of the Global Environmental Policy Program at American University, 2003** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Paul, “Leftist Criticism of "Nature" Environmental Protection in a Postmodern Age,” Dissent Winter 2003 [[http:~~/~~/www.dissentmagazine. org(% style="font-size:12.0pt" %)/(%%)menutest/archives/2003/ wi03/wapner.htm>>http://www.dissentmagazine.org/menutest/archives/2003/wi03/wapner.htm]]l, ldg) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)All attempts to listen to nature ….. (%%)__their fundamental moral commitment.__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) == {{id name="_Toc308813942"/}}Patriarchy not the root cause—inseparable from regional conflict and structural conditions. == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt" %)**Stansell, Princeton history professor, 2010** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Christine, “Global Feminism in a Conservative Age: Possibilities and Pieties Since 1980”, Dissent, April 1st Edition, pg. 51-52, ebsco, ldg) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)But at the same time(% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %)….. (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %)newly invented or recently resurrected. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Digital space provides a crucial region for negotiating practices of gender and sexuality == == Van Doorn, Johns Hopkins University, 2011 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Niels, Digital spaces, material traces: How matter comes to matter in online performances of gender, sexuality and embodiment, Media Culture Society 2011, pg. 534-535) cab (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)Now that the status of the (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %)….. (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)an intimate relationship to one another.3 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %) == Action in Bahrain breaks down neoliberal structures of domination == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="BoldUnderline" %)Sadeghi(%%), Middle East specialist with an emphasis on Iran, Pakistan and the Gulf countries, (% class="BoldUnderline" %)11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Shirin, PhD in Middle Eastern Studies, March 16, 2011, “The fabrications of Bahrain’s Shiite-Sunni divide”, http:~/~/criticalppp.com/archives/42877, 7/23/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)For decades, (% class="Underline" style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)international news (% style="font-size: 7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)….. (% style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)they rule over are primarily Shiite. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %) == The Gendered Perspective is flawed, it reintrences the masculine/ feminine dichotomy == (% class="MsoNormal" %) **__Cohen 2003__** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Amy, JD Harvard Law School, "Gender: An (Un)Useful Category of Prescriptive Negotiation Analysis?" Texas Journal of Women and the Law vol 13) gek (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)[*171] This cultural or relational feminist ….. (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)__remain principal objects of analysis.__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %) == The alt won’t be adopted == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt" %)**Keohane, Princeton Political science professor, 1998** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Robert, “Beyond Dichotomy: Conversations Between International Relations And Feminist Theory”, International Studies Quarterly, 42.1, ebsco, ldg) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)The absence of sustained responses ….. serious attempt to discuss real issues. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading22" style="page-break-after:avoid" %) Their embrace of anti-politics makes the impacts inevitable (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Citation" style="font-size:12.0pt" %)Boggs, professor of social sciences at National University, 1997 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Carl, “The great retreat: Decline of the public sphere in late twentieth-century America”, December, Volume 26, Number 6, http:~/~/www.springerlink.com.proxy.library.emory.edu/content/m7254768m63h16r0/fulltext.pdf, ldg) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)The decline of the public sphere ….. that had vanished from civil society. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Power politics make realism inevitable == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt" %)**Mearsheimer, Chicago political science professor, 2001** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (John, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, pg 30, ldg) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt" %)The first assumption is that(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt" %) (% class="UnderlinedCard" style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt; background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)the (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)…..(% style="font-size:8.0pt" %) fear, self-help, and power maximization. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt" %) == Internet communities enable political alliances that transcend the problems of traditional identity politics—it fosters greater coalition-building, democratic participation, and sparks emancipation from neoliberal globalization == == Langman, professor of sociology at Loyola University of Chicago, 2005 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Lauren, Ph.D. at the University of Chicago from the Committee on Human Development, "From Virtual Public Spheres to Global Justice," Sociological Theory 23.1, pg. 60) cab (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)As Moghadam (2001) notes, (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %)….. (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)**__of emancipation and organizing transformation__**(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %). = {{id name="_Toc308813849"/}}{{id name="_Toc308813833"/}}{{id name="_Toc308813911"/}}Bahrain Aff – A2 – EU CP = (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Eurozone collapse guts solvency—from the chair of the EU finance ministers == == Reuters 2011 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (“If eurozone collapsed, EU might not survive: Polish finmin” Sep. 14, 2011 [[http:~~/~~/www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/14/us-eurozone-breakup-rostowski-idUSTRE78D2QZ20110914>>http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/14/us-eurozone-breakup-rostowski-idUSTRE78D2QZ20110914]] accessed: 10/27/2011)mlb (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %) (Reuters) - If (% class="Underline" style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)the euro zone (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %)….. (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %)the EU until the end of 2011. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == EU to increase focus on Yemen == == Saba Net 10/26 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) Saba Net, Yemen News Agency, “EU keen to find political solution to Yemeni crisis, diplomat says,” October 26, 2011, [[http:~~/~~/www.sabanews.net/en/news251814.htm>>http://www.sabanews.net/en/news251814.htm]] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %)European Union(%%) ((% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight: yellow" %)__EU) __(% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %)….. (%%)__well as several related issues.__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) == No coordination disad- EU and US work well together on democracy assistance == (% class="MsoNormal" %) **__Rojansky, Smith and Kramer, 11__** (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Christopher, House representative (R-IN), Matt, Carnegie Eurasia program deputy director, David, Freedom House executive director, Federal News Service, "The Government of Belarus," 4-1-2011, accessed 6-2-11, mss] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %)[Matt Rojansky:] (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight: yellow" %)__The U.S. and the __(% style="font-size: 7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)….. (%%)__it comes to assistance programs.__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="margin-left:.5in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1" %) == 1.(% style="font:7.0pt ~"Times New Roman~"" %) (%%)No solvency- implementation == == Bicchi, LSE international relations of Europe lecturer, 10 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Federica, Ph.D., London School of Economics and Political Science, former Centre for the Analysis of Political Change fellow, “Dilemmas of Implementation: EU Democracy Assistance in the Mediterranean,” Democratization, 17:5, Oct 2010, p976-996, accessed 5-25-11, mss] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %)The article shows how and why, (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)….. (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)in various and divergent ways. (% style="margin-left:.5in;page-break-after:avoid" %) == == (% style="margin-left:.5in;text-indent:-.25in;page-break-after:avoid; mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1" %) == 2.(% style="font:7.0pt ~"Times New Roman~"" %) (%%)No solvency- delay == == Youngs, FRIDE director and University of Warwick associate professor, 8 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Richard, “Is European democracy promotion on the wane?” CEPS Working Document No. 292, May 2008, http:~/~/www.ceps.eu/book/european-democracy-promotion-wane, accessed 7-28-11, mss] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) __Democracy assistance __(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)With punitive (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)….. (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)state capacity-building in Afghanistan). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %) = Bahrain Aff – A2 - Boehner – China DA 2AC = (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Plan solves smart power == == Fettner, Intellectual Heritage professor – Temple University, 11 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Peter, August 26, 2011, “Investigative Analysis: Soft Power in the Middle East – Reforming American Foreign Policy”, http:~/~/www.presstorm.com/2011/08/soft-power-in-the-middle-east-reforming-american-foreign-policy/, 9/11/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)President (% class="Underline" %)Obama(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %) (% class="Underline" %)and(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %) Secretary of (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %)….. (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %) has forced the United States to respond. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == That’s key for resilient US-China relations == == Center for Strategic and International Studies, 09 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [William S. Cohen, Maurice R. Greenburg, and Carola McGiffert, March 2009, “Smart Power in US-China Relations” Report of the CSIS Commission on China, 9/12/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)As a general principle, (% class="Underline" style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)the United (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)….. (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %) not inevitable, is indispensable. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == New report will name China a currency manipulator – growing tension and administration support – Geithner proves – alt cause == == Palmer and Eckert, Reuters, 10-14-11 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Doug and Paul, "WRAPUP 1-US delays China currency report; lawmakers push bill," http:~/~/www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/14/usa-china-idUSN1E79D1P820111014, accessed 10-30-11, mtf) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)GEITHNER: "BIG PROBLEM WITH CHINA" The (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %)….. (% class="Underline" %)in(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %) helping (% class="Underline" %)advance our interests(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)," he said. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == China is not an existential threat to the US – inevitable economic collapse and dependence on the US precludes conflict == == Stratfor, 2011 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Global intelligence resource, "The Geopolitics of the United States, Part 2: American Identity and the Threats of Tomorrow," 8-26-11, http:~/~/www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110825-geopolitics-united-states-part-2-american-identity-threats-tomorrow, accessed 9-10-11, mtf) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Most (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %)Americans (% class="Underline" %)perceive (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)China(%%) (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)as(%%) (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %)….. (% class="Underline" style="mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)Chinese success are made in America. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top:12.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom: 3.0pt;margin-left:0in;page-break-after:avoid;mso-outline-level:3" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt" %)**3) Non Unique—decline in U.S.-Sino relations is coming and inevitable** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt" %)**Carpenter, 10-11**(%%)-11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Ted Galen, “An Especially Delicate Phase in U.S.-China Relations,” [[http:~~/~~/nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/especially-delicate-phase-us-china-relations-5999>>http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/especially-delicate-phase-us-china-relations-5999]]) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt; background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)**__Issues__**(%%)**__ that__**(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt" %) could (% style="mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt; background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)**__disrupt U.S.-China __**(% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %)….. (% style="mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt; background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)**__such maneuvers is clearly narrowing__**(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) == 4) Non Unique—China doesn’t even have a Middle East strategy and isn’t attempting to influence the region == == Weitz, 11-6-11 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)(Richard, “How China Sees Middle East,” [[http:~~/~~/the-diplomat.com/china-power/2011/09/06/how-china-sees-middle-east/>>http://the-diplomat.com/china-power/2011/09/06/how-china-sees-middle-east/]]) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)But when it comes to recent (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)….. (% class="Underline" style="mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)the unanticipated events in the region. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == 5) Non Unique and Turn—China wants the stability that the plan provides above all else—and U.S. influence in the Middle East is already high == == Weitz, 11-6-11 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Richard, “How China Sees Middle East,” [[http:~~/~~/the-diplomat.com/china-power/2011/09/06/how-china-sees-middle-east/>>http://the-diplomat.com/china-power/2011/09/06/how-china-sees-middle-east/]]) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration:none" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Where does all this leave (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)….. (% class="Underline" %)selfish and misguided regional policies. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == 6) No Impact—U.S.-China relations are resilient == == Denmark, 1-12-11 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Abraham, “U.S. seeks to revitalize ties with China,” [[http:~~/~~/www.cnas.org/node/5539>>http://www.cnas.org/node/5539]]) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration:none" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Harding said the (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)U.S. (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %)….. (% class="Underline" style="mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)the two countries are highly interdependent." (% class="MsoNormal" %) = Bahrain Aff – A2 – Israel Relations DA = (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Aid now- Egypt and Tunisia == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt" %)**Al-Amin, OpEd News, 9-17-11** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Esam, “Three Big Challenges Threatening the Arab Uprisings”, http:~/~/www.ocnus.net/artman2/publish/Analyses_12/Three-Big-Challenges-Threatening-the-Arab-Uprisings.shtml, DOA: 9-29-11, ldg) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)In essence, the major concern ….. the internal affairs of sovereign nations(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Democracy assistance now- Egypt == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt" %)**Arnold, VOA News, 11** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (David, "Foreign Aid Stirs Debate Amid Egypt's Democratic Hopes," Voice of America News, 8-16-11, l/n, accessed 9-15-11, mss) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)__A **sudden surge** in U.S. __(% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)….. according to statements made in May by USAID. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Regional credibility is the only relevant internal link to Israel relations == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt" %)**Malka, CSIS Middle East program senior fellow, 2011** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Haim, “Capacity and Resolve: Foreign Assessments of U.S. Power”, June, [[http:~~/~~/csis.org/files/publication/110613_Cohen_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf>>http://csis.org/files/publication/110613_Cohen_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf]], DOA: 10-16-11, ldg) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)Despite the debates and questions ….. (% class="Underline" style="mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)in their own military power (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Arab spring helps Israel relations == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt" %)**Miller, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars public policy scholar, 2011** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Aaron, “For Better or for Worse”, 3-7, [[http:~~/~~/www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/03/07/for_better_or_for_worse>>http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/03/07/for_better_or_for_worse]], ldg) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)U.S.-Israel relations may actually (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)….. Congress's. That's not likely to happen. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Israel hates Obama-public statements are intentionally understated == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt" %)**Washinton Post 2011** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (“It’s a fact: U.S.-Israel relations at low ebb”, 7-11, [[http:~~/~~/www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/its-a-fact-us-israel-relations-at-low-ebb/2011/03/29/gIQAtHov8H_blog.html>>http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/its-a-fact-us-israel-relations-at-low-ebb/2011/03/29/gIQAtHov8H_blog.html]], DOA: 9-10-11, ldg) (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right:.25in" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %) (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right:.25in" %) (% style="font-size:7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)The administration further upped ….. (% class="BoldUnderlineChar" style="mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)any other(% class="BoldUnderlineChar" %) in recent memory.”) (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Relations are resilient == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt" %)**Pipes, Hoover Institute visiting fellow, 2010** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Daniel, “The Solace of Poor U.S.-Israel Relations,” 4-13, [[http:~~/~~/www.danielpipes.org/8244/poor-us-israel-relations>>http://www.danielpipes.org/8244/poor-us-israel-relations]], DOA: 9-10-11, ldg) (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right:.25in" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %) (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right:.25in" %) (% style="font-size:7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)Things are not always as ….. (%%)__Washington have a lightness and flexibility.__ (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right:.25in" %) (% style="text-decoration: none" %)__ __ == No Israel strikes- 3 reasons == (% class="MsoNormal" %) **__Murphy__**, CSM staff writer, 8-13-20**__10__** (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Dan, Christian Science Monitor, "3 Reasons Israel won't bomb Iran," http:~/~/www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2010/0813/3-Reasons-Israel-won-t-bomb-Iran/The-costs-to-Israel-and-to-allies-like-the-US-would-be-high, accessed 9-1-10, mss] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) __3 Reasons (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight: yellow" %)Israel won't bomb Iran(%%) __(% style="font-size:7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)….. his standing in the broader Muslim world(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="text-decoration:none" %)__ __ == Mid-east conflict doesn’t escalate- self-interest contains war. History overwhelmingly proves. == (% class="MsoNormal" %) **__Satloff__**, Washington Institute for Near East Policy executive director, 12-19-200**__6__** (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Robert, "Forget the Domino Theories," www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1011, accessed 10-2-10, mss] (% align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:center" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)The wise men (and woman) don't ….. in danger inside Iraq will be the United States. (% class="MsoNormal" %)

(% class="MsoNormal" %) {{id name="_Toc303972729"/}} == Currently, US inaction in Bahrain is causing regional radicalization == == Terrill, Research Professor of National Security Affairs, 11 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Andrew, August 2, 2011, “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World”, http:~/~/www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/The-Arab-Spring-and-the-Future-of-US-Interests/2011/8/2#bahrain, 10/13/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)The conflict in Bahrain(% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none;text-underline:none" %) …..(% class="Underline" style="background:yellow;mso-highlight: yellow" %)to the needs of Bahraini Shi'ites. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Specifically true in Iraq – Shiites will model those in Bahrain and become militaristic against the US == == Habibi, professor of economics of the Middle East in Brandeis University's Crown Center for Middle East Studies, 11 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Nader, April 25, 2011, “U.S. Silence on Bahrain Crackdown Ignores Iraq Factor”, http:~/~/www.iranreview.org/content/Documents/U_S_Silence_on_Bahrain_Crackdown_Ignores_Iraq_Factor.htm, 7/20/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)Current(% class="Underline" %) U.S. (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)policy toward Bahrain(%%) (% style="text-decoration:none;text-underline: none" %) …..(% class="BoldUnderline" %)the grievances of (% style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)Bahrain's Shiites(% class="Underline" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) == This causes nuclear WW3 == == Corsi, Ph.D. in Political Science from Harvard, 07 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Jerome R., “War with Iran is imminent”, http:~/~/www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=53669, 12/27/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration:none" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)If(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %) a broader (% class="Underline" style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)war (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration:none;text-underline:none" %) …..(% class="Underline" style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)World Wars I and II began. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Bahrain is on the brink now – only democracy support can prevent further destabilization == == Washington Post, 11 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [September 9, 2011, “Bahrain needs U.S. attention now”, http:~/~/www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/bahrain-needs-us-attention-now/2011/09/09/gIQAjoH9FK_story.html, 10/13/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)The latest trouble began with (% style="text-decoration:none;text-underline:none" %) …..(% class="BoldUnderline" style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)now — before the crisis resumes(% class="BoldUnderline" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Bahrain is the lynchpin of the Middle East – failure to act makes regional war inevitable == == Gengler, PhD Candidate in Political Science at the University of Michigan, 11 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Justin, April 20, 2011, “The Bahraini Time Bomb,” http:~/~/bahrainipolitics.blogspot.com/2011/04/bahraini-time-bomb.html, 10/13/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)The arrival of (% class="Underline" %)the GCC (% style="text-decoration: none;text-underline:none" %) …..(% class="BoldUnderline" style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)time-bomb will continue ticking. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == This draws in the US and causes Iranian intervention == == Shaikh, Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, 11 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Salman, March 23, 2011, “The Bahrain crisis and its regional dangers”, http:~/~/mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/23/the_bahrain_crisis_and_its_regional_dangers, 10/13/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="BoldUnderline" style="text-decoration:none" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)While US and international attention is (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration:none; text-underline:none" %) …..(% class="Underline" %)in creating or shaping till now. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration:none;text-underline:none" %)** ** == Iran independently spurs regional war == == Jain, visiting fellow at The Washington Institute, 11 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Ash, “Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions Troubling Scenarios”, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Policy Focus #114 August 2011, 10/13/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)As it looks for plausibly (% style="text-decoration:none;text-underline:none" %) …..(%%)in the face of a nuclear Iran (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Middle East war causes chemical, biological, and nuclear use == == Russell, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, 09 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [James, spring 2009, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East”, Atomic Energy Commission (CEA), 10/13/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration:none" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Strategic (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)stability(%%) in the region (% style="text-decoration:none; text-underline:none" %) …..(%%)substantial risk for the entire world(% class="underline0" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Their defense is outdated and optimistic == == London, President Emeritus of Hudson Institute, 10 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Herbert I., June 23, 2010, “The Coming Crisis in the Middle East”, http:~/~/www.herblondon.org/7648/coming-crisis-in-middle-east, 10/13/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) {{id name="_Toc312772966"/}}(% class="Underline" style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)The(% class="Underline" %) gathering (% style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)storm in the (% style="text-decoration:none;text-underline:none" %) …..(% style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)That is a(%%) truly (% style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)bad sign(% style="font-size: 8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Free media solves – 3 ways == (% style="margin-left:.5in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1" %) == 1.(% style="font:7.0pt ~"Times New Roman~"" %) (%%)Corruption == == Krishna, Director, National Council of Education Research and Training, 06 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Kumar, 2006, “Promoting Independent Media: Strategies for Democracy Assistance”, Lynne Rienner Publishers, 7, 8/4/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)Fourth, (% class="Underline" %)there is a widespread (% style="text-decoration:none;text-underline:none" %) …..(% class="BoldUnderline" style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)political culture and(% class="BoldUnderline" %) public (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)institutions (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %) == Specifically, media allows balancing of opinions – quelling civil conflict == == Krishna, Director, National Council of Education Research and Training, 06 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Kumar, 2006, “Promoting Independent Media: Strategies for Democracy Assistance”, Lynne Rienner Publishers, 6, 8/4/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)Second, (% class="Underline" %)tragic events in Rwanda(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration:none; text-underline:none" %) …..(% class="Underline" style="mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)promoting tolerance and peaceful coexistence(% class="Underline" %). (% align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:center" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %) (% style="margin-left:.5in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1" %) == 2.(% style="font:7.0pt ~"Times New Roman~"" %) (%%)Media creates an autocratic paradox making solvency inevitable while preventing repression == == Shirky, Professor of New Media at New York University, 11 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Clay, “THE POLITICAL POWER OF SOCIAL MEDIA: TECHNOLOGY, THE PUBLIC SPHERE, AND POLITICAL CHANGE”, Council on Foreign Relations, January/February 2011, 8/4/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)This condition of (% class="Underline" %)shared (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)awareness(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration:none; text-underline:none" %) …..(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %)or strengthen countries’ public spheres. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == This is empirically true in Bahrain – they won’t shut down the internet == == Shirky, Professor of New Media at New York University, 11 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Clay, “THE POLITICAL POWER OF SOCIAL MEDIA: TECHNOLOGY, THE PUBLIC SPHERE, AND POLITICAL CHANGE”, Council on Foreign Relations, January/February 2011, 8/4/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)Authoritarian states are increasingly (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration:none;text-underline:none" %) …..(% class="Underline" %)areas or long periods (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)is constrained(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="margin-left:.5in;text-indent:-.25in;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1" %) == 3.(% style="font:7.0pt ~"Times New Roman~"" %) (%%)Takes down the government monopoly of culture and information – equalizing difference == == Desmukh, Karachi-based journalist and foreign contributor for Foreign Policy, 10 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Fahad, Foreign Policy, September 21, 2010, “The Internet in Bahrain: breaking the monopoly of information”, http:~/~/mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/09/21/bahrain_government_vs_the_internet, 7/16/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Prior to the Internet, (% style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)the (% style="text-decoration:none;text-underline:none" %) …..(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %) the potential threat it poses to them. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == This is key to break down autocratic power == == Christian Science Monitor, 11 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Raymond Barrett, Feb. 17, 2011, “Where is Bahrain's unrest headed?”, http:~/~/www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0217/Where-is-Bahrain-s-unrest-headed, 7/16/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Bahrain is a key strategic (% style="text-decoration:none;text-underline:none" %) …..(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %)half that, the (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:Batang" %)Wall Street Journal(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %) reported. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="text-decoration:none" %)__ __

== Bahrain’s control of media institutionalized sectarian divisions, making them violent – this spills over to the rest of the region and endangers the 5^^th^^ fleet == == Lynch, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, 11 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Marc, March 16, 2011, “Bahrain Brings Back the Sectarianism”, http:~/~/lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/16/bahrain_brings_back_the_sectarianism, 1/6/12, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)While the American and international …..brought them back into fashion. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Specifically, media has been the main tool for inciting sectarian conflict and preventing pluralism == == Kareen, contributor to Jadaliyya Foreign Policy News, 11 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Mona, journalist, BA in English Language and Comparative Literature, December 9, 2011, “Sectarianism Opposition Parties and Online Activist” http:~/~/www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/3454/sectarianism-opposition-parties-and-online-activis, 1/6/12, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)FD: It is true that …..(% class="Underline" %)the scandal to be investigated. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == This provides multiple avenues for fleet kick out and Iranian aggression == == Barnes, writer for WSJ, 11 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Julian E., February 18, 2011, “U.S. Takes Cautious Line on Fifth Fleet's Base”, http:~/~/online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703561604576150662599202064.html, 11/24/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)Unrest in Bahrain is putting (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)…..(% class="Underline" style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %) to have that foothold there." (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Instability makes kick-out inevitable == == Lippman, specialist to the Washington Post, 11 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Thomas, August 6, 2011, “Why Bahrain is a U.S. ally, and why it needs to stay one”, http:~/~/www.bendbulletin.com/article/20110806/NEWS0107/108060353/, 11/24/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)The U.S. position could become (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)…..(% class="Underline" %)quest and hope for success. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Fleet departure crushes American Naval credibility—destroys hegemony == == Cropsy, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, 11 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Seth, “The US Navy in Distress”, Strategic Analysis [[Volume 34>>http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/rsan20?open=34#vol_34]], [[Issue 1>>http://www.tandfonline.com/toc/rsan20/34/1]], 2010, 11/24/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)American maritime strategy has played (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)…..seapower surrendered slowly over decades. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Perception of credible deterrence key to US hegemony == == Etzioni, professor of international relations at George Washington University, 11 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Amiai, “The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility”, March-April 2011 – MILITARY REVIEW, 11/24/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)As of the beginning of 2011, (% class="Underline" %)these (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)…..(% class="Underline" style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)up to its commitments overseas. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Fleet in Bahrain is key – checks all escalation and is critical to international security alliances == == Ellison, chairman and founder of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, 11 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Riki, “Unstable Momentum in Middle East Causes More US Need for Missile Defense”, Feb 22, PR Newswire, 1/6/12, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)Today, (% class="Underline" %)for the first time (% style="font-size: 8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)…..(% class="BoldUnderline" %)defense makes our world safer. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Naval power projection independently solves war == == Conway, General, U.S. Marine Corps, 07 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [James T., October 2007, “A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower”, http:~/~/www.navy.mil/maritime/Maritimestrategy.pdf, 11/24/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration:none;text-underline:none" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)No other disruption is as (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)…..projection enable extended campaigns ashore. (% class="MsoNormal" %) 4 == Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction-multipolarity is inevitable but absolute US power smoothes the transition and is empirically correlated to perpetual great-power peace == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt" %)**Barnett, Naval War College Warfare Analysis & Research Department professor, 2011** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Thomas, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads”, 3-7, [[http:~~/~~/www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads>>http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads]], DOA: 10-9-11, ldg) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)Let me be more blunt: As (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %)…..(% class="Underline" %)in the geometry to come(% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) == U.S. hegemonic decline causes global great-power war, collapses trade and spreads economic nationalism and protectionism == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt" %)**Zhang et al., Carnegie Endowment researcher, 2011** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Yuhan, “America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry”, 1-22, [[http:~~/~~/www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/>>http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/]], DOA: 9-21-11, ldg) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)This does not necessarily mean (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %)…..(% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)be devoid of unrivalled US primacy. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Breaking the monopoly is critical to provide avenues for resolution == == Krishna, Director, National Council of Education Research and Training, 06 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Kumar, 2006, “Promoting Independent Media: Strategies for Democracy Assistance”, Lynne Rienner Publishers, 6, 8/4/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)Second, (% class="Underline" %)tragic events in Rwanda(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %) …..(% class="Underline" style="mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)promoting tolerance and peaceful coexistence(% class="Underline" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Internet is key – it’s what the government uses for sectarian division == == Desmukh, Karachi-based journalist and foreign contributor for Foreign Policy, 10 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Fahad, Foreign Policy, September 21, 2010, “The Internet in Bahrain: breaking the monopoly of information”, http:~/~/mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/09/21/bahrain_government_vs_the_internet, 7/16/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Prior to the Internet, (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)the (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)…..threat it poses to them. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Media creates an autocratic paradox preventing repression == == Shirky, Professor of New Media at New York University, 11 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Clay, “THE POLITICAL POWER OF SOCIAL MEDIA: TECHNOLOGY, THE PUBLIC SPHERE, AND POLITICAL CHANGE”, Council on Foreign Relations, January/February 2011, 8/4/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)This condition of (% class="Underline" %)shared (% style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)awareness(% style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %) …..or strengthen countries’ public spheres. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == This is empirically true in Bahrain – they won’t shut down the internet == == Shirky, Professor of New Media at New York University, 11 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Clay, “THE POLITICAL POWER OF SOCIAL MEDIA: TECHNOLOGY, THE PUBLIC SPHERE, AND POLITICAL CHANGE”, Council on Foreign Relations, January/February 2011, 8/4/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)Authoritarian states are increasingly shutting (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)…..there can be no modern

== CContention Two: Iran == (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Bahraini crackdowns are creating a time-bomb in the Gulf – failure to aid the Shias causes radicalization and Iranian intervention and crushes US credibility == == Jacobs, policy analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs, 11 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Joshua, June 1, 2011, “Blunder in Bahrain”, http:~/~/www.gulfinstitute.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=148:blunder-in-bahrain-&catid=26:articles&Itemid=23, 8/1/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="BoldUnderline" style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)There is no country(% class="BoldUnderline" %) affected (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)…..(% class="Underline" %) (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)and(%%) in (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)negating Iranian propaganda(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Bahrain is on the brink now – only democracy support can prevent further destabilization == == Washington Post, 11 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [September 9, 2011, “Bahrain needs U.S. attention now”, http:~/~/www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/bahrain-needs-us-attention-now/2011/09/09/gIQAjoH9FK_story.html, 10/13/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)The latest trouble began with (% style="font-size: 8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)…..(% class="Underline" %) (% class="BoldUnderline" style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)now — before the crisis resumes(% class="BoldUnderline" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) == This draws in the US and causes Saudi-Iran war == == Shaikh, Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, 11 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Salman, March 23, 2011, “The Bahrain crisis and its regional dangers”, http:~/~/mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/23/the_bahrain_crisis_and_its_regional_dangers, 10/13/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="BoldUnderline" style="text-decoration: none" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)While US and international attention …..(% class="Underline" %) creating or shaping till now. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == This causes regional instability and guarantees Iran emboldening == == Jain, visiting fellow at The Washington Institute, 11 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Ash, “Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions Troubling Scenarios”, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Policy Focus #114 August 2011, 10/13/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)As it looks for plausibly (% style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)…..(% class="Underline" %) the face of a nuclear Iran (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Goes nuclear == == London, President Emeritus of Hudson Institute, 10 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Herbert I., June 23, 2010, “The Coming Crisis in the Middle East”, http:~/~/www.herblondon.org/7648/coming-crisis-in-middle-east, 10/13/11, atl] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)The(% class="Underline" %) gathering (% style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)storm in the (% style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)…..(% class="Underline" %) (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)That is a(%%) truly (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)bad sign(% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Instability makes Iranian intervention inevitable == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt" %)**Lynch, George Washington political science professor, 2011** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Marc, “Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East”, June, http:~/~/www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Upheaval_Lynch_2.pdf, DOA: 9-21-11, ldg) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)As it struggles to recalibrate (% style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)…..(% class="Underline" %) (% style="font-size:7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)Produce sudden and game-changing war. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Risk of escelation is high-lack of communication and desperation makes miscalc likely. == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt" %)**Parsi, National Iranian American Council president, 10-2-11** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Trita, “Iran's growing bluster spells danger”, [[http:~~/~~/www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-parsi-iran-20111002,0,3457401.story>>http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-parsi-iran-20111002,0,3457401.story]], DOA: 10-18-11, ldg) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)The world has grown accustomed (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)…..(% class="Underline" %) (% class="BoldUnderlineChar" style="mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri;background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)often lead to(% class="BoldUnderlineChar" %) dangerous (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)escalations(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Empowering Bahraini Shiites fuels regional change and causes Iranian democracy == == Bhadrakumar, career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service, 11 == (% class="MsoNormal" %) [MK, May 31, 2011, “Decoding Obama’s Bahrain puzzle”, http:~/~/theglobalrealm.com/2011/05/31/decoding-obamas-bahrain-puzzle/, 7/17/11, atl] (% align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:center" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:5.0pt" %)On the other hand, the (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)…..(% class="Underline" %) the mother of all reforms(% style="font-size:8.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) == Iranian democratization solves proliferation, adventurism and stabilizes the ME == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt" %)**Gerecht, Foundation for defense of democracies senior fellow, 2010** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Reuel, “Iran, Beacon of Liberty?”, 2-10, [[http:~~/~~/www.nytimes.com/2010/02/11/opinion/11gerecht.html?pagewanted=all>>http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/11/opinion/11gerecht.html?pagewanted=all]], DOA: 10-15-11, ldg) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)The impact of all this on (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt" %)…..(% class="Underline" %) (% style="font-size:7.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)likely to earn as much. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt" %)

(% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**The BICI report has fundamentally changed the game – now is key – the alternative is the violent implosion of the country** (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Gershman, President of the National Endowment for Democracy, 12/1** (% class="p2" %) (% class="s2" %)Carl, December 1, 2011, “The Price of Freedom and Democracy: Defiant Bahrainis and the Arab Spring”, [[(% class="s2 s2 s2 s3" %)http:~~/~~/www.ned.org/about/board/meet-our-president/archived-presentations-and-articles/the-price-of-freedom-and-democracy>>http://www.ned.org/about/board/meet-our-president/archived-presentations-and-articles/the-price-of-freedom-and-democracy]](%%), 1/8/12, atl] (% class="p4" %) (% class="s1" %)I want to begin by .....(% class="s3" %)** than we’ve seen so far**(% class="s1" %). (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**No short team alternatives** (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Karmi, political analysts and journalist for the National, 11** (% class="p2" %) (% class="s2" %)[Omar, July 22, 2011, “US denies any plan to move Fifth Fleet from Bahrain”, [[(% class="s2 s2 s2 s3" %)http:~~/~~/www.thenational.ae/thenational/news/world/middle-east/us-denies-any-plan-to-move-fifth-fleet-from-bahrain>>http://www.thenational.ae/thenational/news/world/middle-east/us-denies-any-plan-to-move-fifth-fleet-from-bahrain]](%%), 1/9/12, atl] (% class="p4" %) (% class="s1" %)However, (% class="s3" %)a State Department official (% class="s1" %).....(% class="s3" %)** size currently based in Manama.** (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Kickout causes Iran emboldening Smith senior editor at the Weekly Standard, 11** (% class="p4" %) (% class="s1" %)[Lee, “The Bahrain Crack-Up”, Aug 8, 2011, [[(% class="s1 s1 s1 s4" %)http:~~/~~/www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/bahrain-bust_582134.html>>http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/bahrain-bust_582134.html]](%%), 1/6/12, atl] (% class="p4" %) (% class="s3" %)There have been rumors afloat (% class="s1" %)..... (% class="s3" %)when the going gets tough. (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Iranian adventurism goes nuclear ~-~-- credible deterrence is key to solve** (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Ben-Meir, professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, 07** (% class="p4" %) (% class="s1" %)[Alon, “Ending Iran's defiance”, [[(% class="s1 s1 s1 s4" %)http:~~/~~/www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3361650,00.html>>http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3361650,00.html]](%%), 1/9/12, atl] (% class="p4" %) (% class="s3" %)Feeling emboldened(% class="s1" %) and unrestrained, (% class="s3" %)Tehran (% class="s1" %).....(% class="s3" %)** dreads major US punitive measures**(% class="s1" %). (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Specifically, Iran is threatening to shut-down Hormuz—5**(% class="s5" %)**^^th^^**(% class="s1" %)** fleet crucial deterrent** (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Reuters, 12/28** (% class="p4" %) (% class="s1" %)[Parisa Hafezi, December 28, 2011, “U.S. Fifth Fleet says won't allow Hormuz disruption”, [[(% class="s1 s1 s1 s6" %)http:~~/~~/www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/28/us-iran-hormuz-closure-idUSTRE7BR09E20111228>>http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/28/us-iran-hormuz-closure-idUSTRE7BR09E20111228]](%%), 1/9/12, atl] (% class="p4" %) (% class="s3" %)The U.S. Fifth Fleet said(% class="s1" %) on .....(% class="s3" %) region through the strategic waterway. (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Hormuz conflict escalates to nuclear strikes and war between Iran and Israel** (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Williams, Adjunct Professor of Humanities and Social Sciences - Indian Institute of Technology, 10** (% class="p4" %) (% class="s1" %)[Lawrence, July 22, 2010, “Peril Awaits at the Strait of Hormuz”, [[(% class="s1 s1 s1 s7" %)http:~~/~~/www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-religion/2557996/posts>>http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-religion/2557996/posts]](%%), 1/9/12, atl] (% class="p4" %) (% class="s3" %)The Gulf-Southwest Asia region (% class="s1" %)..... (% class="s3" %)**that could have irreparable consequences.** (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Triggers global nuclear conflict** (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Trabanco, geopolitical and military affairs independent researcher, 2009** (% class="p4" %) (% class="s1" %)(José Miguel Alonso, “The Middle Eastern Powder Keg Can Explode at Anytime”, 1-13-2009, [[(% class="s1 s1 s1 s7" %)http:~~/~~/www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=11762>>http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=11762]](%%), 8-3-2011, jag) (% class="p4" %) (% class="s3" %)Israel fears a nuclear Iran (% class="s1" %).....(% class="s3" %) middle of a powder keg. (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Even the perception of kick-out triggers the mpx** (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Koplovsky, current Director, Policy and Public Outreach, Bureau of Oceans, Environment and Science, U.S. Department of State** (% class="p4" %) (% class="s1" %)[Michael, fmr. foreign service officer, 10-23-2006, “Precipitating the Inevitable: The Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain,” NAVAL WAR COLLEGE Newport, R.I., 1/9/12, atl] (% class="p4" %) (% class="s1" %)Former Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman .....(% class="s3" %) and contributes to economic development.

(% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**US support for civil society causes successful BICI implementation and long term reforms** (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Talamanca, Secretary-General of No Peace Without Justice, 11** (% class="p2" %) (% class="s1" %)[Niccolo' Figa, 11/22/11, “Bahrain: one step forward or two steps back?,” No Peace Without Justice, [[(% class="s1 s1 s2" %)http:~~/~~/www.npwj.org/MENA/Bahrain-one-step-forward-or-two-steps-back.html>>http://www.npwj.org/MENA/Bahrain-one-step-forward-or-two-steps-back.html]](%%), 1/9/12, atl] (% class="p2" %) (% class="s3" %)How the report turns out, (% class="s1" %).....(% class="s3" %) acknowledgement and justice for the victims. (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Implementing BICI recommendations is a critical first step towards reconciliation** (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Walker, former British Ambassador to Bahrain, 11** (% class="p2" %) (% class="s1" %)[Harold, Former Chairman of the Royal Society of Asian Affairs and former Chairman of the British Society for Middle Eastern Studies, 12-6-2011, “Bahrain after the BICI,” Conservative Middle East Council, [[(% class="s1 s1 s4" %)http:~~/~~/cmec.org.uk/blog/bahrain-after-the-bici/>>http://cmec.org.uk/blog/bahrain-after-the-bici/]](%%), 1/9/12, atl] (% class="p2" %) (% class="s1" %)The truth is that (% class="s3" %)Bahrain (% class="s1" %).....(% class="s3" %) the nature of the ruling regime. (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**US support breaks the deadlock in Bahrain—most recent and qualified evidence** (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Gershman, President of the National Endowment for Democracy, 11** (% class="p4" %) (% class="s5" %)**[**Carl, December 1, 2011, “The Price of Freedom and Democracy: Defiant Bahrainis and the Arab Spring”, [[(% class="s5 s5 s1" %)http:~~/~~/www.ned.org/about/board/meet-our-president/archived-presentations-and-articles/the-price-of-freedom-and-democrac>>http://www.ned.org/about/board/meet-our-president/archived-presentations-and-articles/the-price-of-freedom-and-democrac]](%%), 1/9/12, atl] (% class="p2" %) (% class="s1" %)In fact, (% class="s3" %)if there is (% class="s1" %).....(% class="s3" %) and realize its full potential. (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Without US action the opposition will discredit the reforms – US support gives the King credibility and prevents anti-americanism** (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Fisher, managed economic development programs for the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development in the Middle East, North Africa, Latin America, and Asia, 12/27** (% class="p2" %) (% class="s1" %)[William,12-27-2011, “In Bahrain’s Hour of Peril, Where Does The U.S. Stand?,” The Public Record, [[(% class="s1 s1 s4" %)http:~~/~~/pubrecord.org/world/9959/bahrains-peril-where-stand/>>http://pubrecord.org/world/9959/bahrains-peril-where-stand/]](%%), 1/9/12, atl] (% class="p2" %) (% class="s1" %)He added: “(% class="s3" %)The reforms agreed (% class="s1" %)..... priority for US policy­-makers. (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**The US must act as a neutral brokers to create reconciliation** (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**POMED, 11** (% class="p2" %) (% class="s1" %)[12-2-2011, “POMED Notes: “The Price of Freedom and Democracy: Defiant Bahrainis and the Arab Spring,” [[(% class="s1 s1 s4" %)http:~~/~~/bahrainrights.org/en/node/4878>>http://bahrainrights.org/en/node/4878]](%%), 1/9/12, atl] (% class="p2" %) (% class="s1" %)On Thursday, the (% class="s3" %)Woodrow Wilson (% class="s1" %)..... accomplished by releasing political prisoners. (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Reconciliation possible—Obama push key—regime has economic incentives to say yes** (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Bockenfeld, director of advocacy at the Project on Middle East Democracy, 11** (% class="p4" %) (% class="s5" %)[Cole, 10/12/11, “Reform must shape US policy toward Bahrain”, [[(% class="s5 s5 s3" %)http:~~/~~/www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2011/Oct-12/151071-reform-must-shape-us-policy-toward-bahrain.ashx#axzz1j04FW9f5>>http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2011/Oct-12/151071-reform-must-shape-us-policy-toward-bahrain.ashx#axzz1j04FW9f5]](%%), 1/9/12, atl] (% class="p2" %) (% class="s3" %)The United States has maintained a (% class="s1" %).....(% class="s3" %) them by rule of law. (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Specifically, Elections galvanized moves for democracy in Bahrain—US support key** (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Squitieri, writer for the Hill, 11** (% class="p4" %) (% class="s5" %)[Tom, 11/8/11, “On an island far, far away”, [[(% class="s5 s5 s1" %)http:~~/~~/thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/politics/192305-on-an-island-far-far-away>>http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/politics/192305-on-an-island-far-far-away]](%%), 1/9/12, atl] (% class="p2" %) (% class="s1" %)In September, (% class="s3" %)18 new members (% class="s1" %).....(% class="s3" %)** good advice is deeply appreciated.**

(% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Pakistani’s security forces are strained now - making Taliban insurgency and instability inevitable** (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Jha, writer and foreign policy coordinator for Indian Express, 11** (% class="p2" %) (% class="s2" %)[Lalit K, October 2, 2011, “Pak's counter-terror ops ineffective: Obama”, [[(% class="s2 s3" %)http:~~/~~/www.newsbullet.in/world/52-more/18917-paks-counter-terror-measures-not-effective-obama>>http://www.newsbullet.in/world/52-more/18917-paks-counter-terror-measures-not-effective-obama]](%%), 1/9/12, atl] (% class="p3" %) (% class="p4" %) (% class="s3" %)Pakistan's counter-terrorism measures have(% class="s1" %) .....** **(% class="s3" %)**future escalation**(% class="s1" %)," the report said. (% class="p5" %) (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**And the Taliban are increasing attacks on Pakistan now** (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Khan, writer for CNN News, 1/5** (% class="p4" %) (% class="s1" %)[Shaan, January 5, 2012, “Taliban says it executed 15 Pakistani security officials”, [[(% class="s1 s4" %)http:~~/~~/articles.cnn.com/2012-01-05/asia/world_asia_pakistan-bodies_1_pakistani-security-pakistani-taliban-frontier-constabulary?_s=PM:ASIA>>http://articles.cnn.com/2012-01-05/asia/world_asia_pakistan-bodies_1_pakistani-security-pakistani-taliban-frontier-constabulary?_s=PM:ASIA]](% class="s5" %), 1/9/12, atl] (% class="p3" %) (% class="p4" %) (% class="s3" %)Authorities found the bodies (% class="s1" %).....(% class="s3" %) the border and into Pakistan." (% class="p5" %) (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**But, Pakistan is increasing recruitment to keep nuclear material safe** (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Gondal, Pakistani foreign correspondent for the Washington Post, 12/11** (% class="p4" %) (% class="s1" %)[Qaiser Farooq, December 11, 2011, “Are Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons Secure?”, [[(% class="s1 s4" %)http:~~/~~/pakistanisforpeace.wordpress.com/2011/12/11/are-pakistans-nuclear-weapons-secure/>>http://pakistanisforpeace.wordpress.com/2011/12/11/are-pakistans-nuclear-weapons-secure/]](%%), 1/9/12, atl] (% class="p3" %) (% class="p4" %) (% class="s3" %)Pakistan is again facing the (% class="s1" %)..... to secure its own weapons. (% class="p5" %) (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Crackdowns in Bahrain causes sectarian tensions to flare** (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**McManus, LA Times Washington Analyst, 2011** (% class="p4" %) (% class="s1" %)(Doyle, April 17, “Libya’s only a part of Mideast equation,” LA Times,[[(% class="s1 s6" %)http:~~/~~/articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/17/opinion/la-oe-mcmanus-bahrain-20110417>>http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/17/opinion/la-oe-mcmanus-bahrain-20110417]](%%), d/a 1-8-12, ads) (% class="p3" %) (% class="p4" %) (% class="s1" %)Why does all this matter? .....** **(% class="s3" %)the region appreciate(% class="s1" %)," Freeman said. (% class="p3" %) (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**This causes a massive security drain of Pakistani troops and military trainers - causing instability** (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Mashal, writer and foreign policy journalist for Aljazeera, 11** (% class="p2" %) (% class="s2" %)[Mujib, July 30, 2011, “Why Pakistan is sending Pakistani troops to aid Bahrain’s crackdown” [[(% class="s2 s3" %)http:~~/~~/www.pakistaniscandals.com/post/1352/Why-Pakistan-is-sending-Pakistani-troops-to-aid-Bahrain's-crackdown-.html>>http://www.pakistaniscandals.com/post/1352/Why-Pakistan-is-sending-Pakistani-troops-to-aid-Bahrain's-crackdown-.html]](%%), 1/9/12, atl] (% class="p6" %) (% class="p4" %) (% class="s3" %)Why Pakistan is sending Pakistani (% class="s1" %)..... are they allowing this?" (% class="p5" %) (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Damaging security forces allow them to target Pakistani nuclear material** (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Oxford Analytica, 07** (% class="p4" %) (% class="s1" %)[August 31, 2007, “Pakistan: Instability raises nuclear safety concerns”, Global Strategic Analysis, 1/9/12, atl] (% class="p3" %) (% class="p4" %) (% class="s3" %)Civil-military tensions, weak and (% class="s1" %)..... jihadist threat - August 16, 2007). (% class="p5" %) (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Pakistani terrorism spurs nuclear war** (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Zarate, former deputy national security advisor, 11 ** (% class="p4" %) (% class="s1" %)(Juan C., senior adviser Center for Strategic and International Studies, “An alarming South Asia powder keg,” The Washington Post, 2-18-11, [[(% class="s1 s7" %)http:~~/~~/www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/18/AR2011021805662.html>>http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/18/AR2011021805662.html]](%%), accessed 1/8/2012) jba (% class="p3" %) (% class="p4" %) (% class="s3" %)In 1914, a terrorist assassinated(% class="s1" %) .....(% class="s3" %) threat we face from terrorism(% class="s1" %). (% class="p5" %) (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**No risk of defense - Pak instability makes US invasion inevitable** (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Andhra News, 10 ** (% class="p4" %) (% class="s1" %)("US will 'invade volatile Pak to deal with instability there': Australian MP," 10-26-10, [[(% class="s1 s7" %)www.andhranews.net/Intl/2010/US-will-invade-volatile-Pak-deal-577.htm>>http://www.andhranews.net/Intl/2010/US-will-invade-volatile-Pak-deal-577.htm]](%%), accessed 10-25-11, mss) (% class="p3" %) (% class="p4" %) (% class="s3" %)The 'highly volatile' situation in (% class="s1" %).....(% class="s3" %) US military invasion was inevitable. (% class="p3" %) (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Spurs massive radicalization, turns every impact, and causes global world war three** (% class="p1" %) (% class="s1" %)**Shaukat, 10** (% class="p4" %) (% class="s1" %)(Sajjad, “If US attacks Pakistan,” Pakistan Daily, 6-9-10, [[(% class="s1 s7" %)http:~~/~~/www.daily.pk/if-us-attacks-pakistan-18574/>>http://www.daily.pk/if-us-attacks-pakistan-18574/]](%%), accessed 7-26-11, mss) (% class="p3" %) (% class="p7" %) (% class="s1" %)However, (% class="s4" %)any US prospective attack (% class="s6" %).....(% class="s1" %) nefarious designs of the United States. (% class="p5" %)

Tunisia AFF – Plan – 1AC

The United States federal government should offer democratic governance assistance to Tunisia.

Tunisia 1AC – Credibility

Contention One – Credibility

Current aid takes out DA’s, but doesn’t solve.

Taylor, International Affairs Fellow in residence at the Council on Foreign Relations, 11

[Victoria, October 21, 2011, “Tunisia at the Crossroads”, http://www.cfr.org/tunisia/tunisia-crossroads/p26254, 11/29/11, atl]

As Tunisia attempts … from the sidelines.

And, the new Tunisian climate provides the opportunity to reverse past double standards – regaining legitimacy

Semaan, political analyst for Dar Al Hayat, 11

[George, October 31, 2011, “Will Tunisia’s Ennahda Present the Archetypal Experience?”, http://www.daralhayat.com/portalarticlendah/324486, 11/30/11, atl]

Regardless of Ennahda’s rhetoric… of human rights and the economy.

Engaging Ennahda is key

McIreney, Executive Director of the project on Middle East Democracy, 11

[Stephen, November 8, 2011, “Islamist Victory in Tunisia Presents Opportunity for U.S. Engagement”, http://fikraforum.org/2011/11/islamist-victory-in-tunisia-represents-opportunity-for-u-s-engagement/, 11/29/11, atl]

Ahead of the elections, many …. U.S. cannot afford to miss.

Supporting Muslim parties is the only way to reverse anti-Americanism in the Middle East

Kull, International Policy Attitudes director, 2011

(Steven, “Why Muslims are still mad at America”, 9-5, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/05/why-muslims-are-still-mad-at-america/, DOA: 12-19-11, ldg)

On the ten-year anniversary ….  the Muslim world will become more amicable.

Relative power is declining and regaining legitimacy is the only way to ensure that the United States sustains power projection with stable international leverage and cooperation

Zakaria, professor of IR and political philosophy at Harvard and Columbia University, 11

[Fareed, “The Post-American World”, W. W. Norton & Company, 2011, 12/4/11, atl]

Legitimacy is power. The … the world for so long.

U.S. hegemonic decline causes global great-power war, collapses trade and spreads economic nationalism and protectionism

Zhang et al., Carnegie Endowment researcher, 2011

(Yuhan, “America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry”, 1-22, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/, DOA: 9-21-11, ldg)

This does not necessarily mean … devoid of unrivalled US primacy.

Independently, trade collapse goes nuclear

Hillebrand, Kentucky diplomacy professor, 2010

(Evan, “Deglobalization Scenarios: Who Wins? Who Loses?”, Global Economy Journal, Volume 10, Issue 2, ebsco, ldg)

A long line of writers from … for interstate war rises.

And, resolving Anti-Americanism solves terrorism

Hamid, Brookings Doha Center Director of Research, 2007

[Shadi, “Engaging Political Islam to Promote Democracy”, June, http://www.dlc.org/documents/Political_Islam_06272007.pdf, DOA: 12/10/11, atl]

In light of the growing schism … however, is now closed.

Al Qaeda is developing nuclear and biological weapons

Blake et al., Daily Telegraph reporter, 2011

(Heidi, “WikiLeaks: al-Qaeda 'is planning a dirty bomb'”, February, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8296956/WikiLeaks-al-Qaeda-is-planning-a-dirty-bomb.html, DOA: 12-19-11, ldg)

Al-Qaida is on the verge of …. cause “extraordinary loss of life”.

CBW attack causes extinction

Kellman, International Weapons Control Center, 2008

(Barry, “Bioviolence: A Growing Threat”, The Futurist, May-June, http://www.wfs.org/March-April09/MJ2008_Kellman.pdf, DOA: 12-19-11, ldg)

A looming danger confronts the world… consequences for all humanity.

Nuclear terrorism goes global-causes extinction.

Morgan, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, 2009

(Dennis, World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race Futures, Volume 41, Issue 10, December, ldg)

In a remarkable website on nuclear … strategic weapons

AQ will attack nuclear power plants-causes meltdowns and kills the industry.

Kimery, Homeland Security Today's senior reporter, 2011

(Anthony, “Al Qaeda Could Try to Replicate Fukushima-type Meltdowns”, 5-12, http://www.hstoday.us/blogs/the-kimery-report/blog/al-qaeda-could-try-to-replicate-fukushima-type-meltdowns/aa96292934d83bb8c9f97fd9d685f32b.html, DOA: 12-19-11, ldg)

A May 5 "intelligence brief" prepared … a matter of hours …”

Meltdowns cause extinction

Lendman, CRG research associate, 2011

(Stephen, “Nuclear Meltdown in Japan”, 3-13, http://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/TPV3/Voices.php/2011/03/13/nuclear-meltdown-in-japan, DOA; 12-19-11, ldg)

Reuters said the 1995 Kobe … "It could be, literally, an apocalyptic event.

Tunisia 1AC – Backsliding

Contention Three – Backsliding

Current lack of support is causing Ennadha to turn to Salifism – ensuring extremist power grabbing

Jelassi, Masters degree in journalism at the Institute of Press and Information Storage of Tunis, 11

[Mohamed, October 17, 2011, “NCA Election: An-Nahda without Attahrir or the Salafists”, http://www.latunisievote.org/en/politics/item/343-nca-election-an-nahda-without-attahrir-or-the-salafists, 12/4/11, atl

Following the return of the … in the coming electoral race.

Ennadha will fold under the pressure – protests will force them to demonstrate Islamist “authenticity”

Brumberg, Senior Adviser for the Center for Conflict Management, 11

[Dan, October 26, 2011, “A Democratic, Islamist Tunisia?”, http://www.usip.org/publications/democratic-islamist-tunisia#elections, 12/4/11, atl]

First and foremost, …  Mandela to accomplish this.

This reverts Tunisia back to the old style of governance-undermining democratic efforts

Paciello, Research Associate at Istituto Affari Internazionali, 11        

[Maria, “Tunisia: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition”, MEDPRO Technical Report No. 3/May 2011, 12/4/11, atl]

As seen above, Tunisia is faced with a … political intentions are not yet clear.

Salafist influence collapses Tunisia’s transition and prevents a regional democratic model

Democracy Digest 2011

[October, 24, 2011, “Tunisia: ‘inspiring’ poll, inclusive government, but can democracy deliver?”, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/10/tunisia-inspiring-poll-inclusive-government-but-can-democracy-deliver/, 12/4/11, atl]

“The scene today reflects the polarization … post-Soviet central and eastern Europe.

Successful reform in Tunisia spills over to Algeria

Vasconcelos, Director of the European Union Institute for Security Studies, 11

[Álvaro de, January, 2011, “Tunisia: a chance for democracy”, http://www.vpi.ba/eng/content/documents/Tunisia_a_chance_for_democracy.pdf, 12/20/11, atl]

A successful democratic transition in … from its responsibilities.

Algerian reform is the only way to prevent inevitable instability

Fallon, Eurasia Group's Middle East practice. 11-22-11

(James, “Is Algeria next?”, http://eurasia.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/11/22/is_algeria_next, DOA: 12-20-11, ldg)

As protests in Tunisia, Egypt, …. serious unrest can be avoided.

We isolate two impacts:

First is oil – causes inadaptable oil shocks and collapses the global economy

Evans Pritchard, Daily Telegraph international business editor, 2011

(Ambrose, “Oil could hit $220 a barrel on Libya and Algeria fears, warns Nomura”, 2-23, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/8344133/Oil-could-hit-220-a-barrel-on-Libya-and-Algeria-fears-warns-Nomura.html, DOA: 12-20-11, ldg)

Nomura's commodity team said … with commodity pricing.

Newest studies prove

Erwin, National Defense Magazine, 11-1-11

(Sandra, “30% Cut in U.S. Oil Imports Would Avert Future Catastrophe, Study Warns”, http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/blog/Lists/Posts/Post.aspx?ID=577, DOA: 12-20-11, ldg)

Unless the United States curtails its … the impact would be nearly zero.

Decline causes war

Royal, director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010

(Jedediah, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal, and Political Perspectives, pg 213-215, ldg)

Less intuitive is how periods … ancillary to those views.

Specifically true for the EU – Algerian instability takes out 20% of the EU’s energy supply 

Ghettas, doctoral student at London School of Economics and Political Science, 11

[Lakhdar, January 20, 2011, “The Geopolitical Repercussions of the Tunisian Jasmine Revolution on North Africa”, http://www.rachad.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=639:the-geopolitical-repercussions-of-the-tunisian-jasmine-revolution-on-north-africa&catid=56:articles, 11/30/11, atl]

While calm and order started … of neighboring Algeria and Egypt.

This is the critical internal link to EU energy security with Russia being the only ready alternative

Katusa, research leader for Casey's Energy Opportunities, 11

[Marin, January 30, 2011, “Instability In Algeria Could Have Serious Energy Implications For Europe”, http://www.forbes.com/sites/energysource/2011/01/30/instability-in-algeria-could-have-serious-energy-implications-for-europe/, 11/30/11, atl]

On top of the natural gas flowing … other countries that will.

Russia will exploit these openings for expansionist purposes

Cohn, Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Security at The Heritage Foundation, 09

[Ariel, February 2, 2009, “Can Europe Be Taken Hostage by Russia’s Natural Gas Supply?”, http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=1071&pageid=&pagename=, 11/30/11, atl]

It is clear that Russia has not ceased … stand up to Russian bullying.

Russian expansionism leads to unstable US counterbalancing and proliferation

Federation of American Scientists, 98

[Major D. G. Cook “The Empire Strikes Back: Russia's Strategy is Still a Threat to Canada's Security”, http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/doctrine/0027.htm, 11/30/11, atl]

Russia has come a long … during the Cold War.

Goes nuclear

Blank, Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, 09

[Stephen, “RUSSIA AND ARMS CONTROL: ARE THERE OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION?”, All Strategic Studies Institute (SSI), 11/30/11, atl]

Proliferators or nuclear states …  their neighbors or their own people.

Engaging Ennahda is key to solve

Zelin, Brandeis University's Department of Politics research associate, 12-8-11

(Aaron, “The Salafi Challenge to Tunisia's Nascent Democracy”, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3430, DOA: 12-12-11, ldg)

Since last month's free and …  moderate Islamic political party.

Preemptive democratic engagement with Islamist political parties is critical to reverse this trend

Al-Anani, Senior Fellow at the Al Ahram Foundation in Cairo, 10

[Khalil, “The Myth of Excluding Moderate Islamists in the Arab World”, The Saban Center for Middle EAst Policy at the Brookings Institution,  - Working Paper, Number 4, March 2010, 12/1/11, atl]

The ultimate problem with … balanced relationship with Israel).

Tunisia 1AC – Solvency

They’ll say yes

Doherty, administrator to Bikyamaster, 11

[Ryan, November 2, 2011, “Successful elections portend a bright future in Tunisia”, http://bikyamasr.com/47130/successful-elections-portend-a-bright-future-in-tunisia/, 11/29/11, atl]

Tunisian political parties have … its former colonial master.

Heg 1AC

The BICI report has fundamentally changed the game – now is key – the alternative is the violent implosion of the country

Gershman, President of the National Endowment for Democracy, 12/1

Carl, December 1, 2011, “The Price of Freedom and Democracy: Defiant Bahrainis and the Arab Spring”, http://www.ned.org/about/board/meet-our-president/archived-presentations-and-articles/the-price-of-freedom-and-democracy, 1/8/12, atl]

I want to begin by congratulating ….. greater violence than we’ve seen so far.

Instability provides multiple avenues for fleet kick out

Barnes, writer for WSJ, 11

[Julian E., February 18, 2011, “U.S. Takes Cautious Line on Fifth Fleet's Base”, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703561604576150662599202064.html, 11/24/11, atl]

Unrest in Bahrain is putting ….. to have that foothold there."

Civil war makes the base untenable

Lippman, specialist to the Washington Post, 11

[Thomas, August 6, 2011, “Why Bahrain is a U.S. ally, and why it needs to stay one”, http://www.bendbulletin.com/article/20110806/NEWS0107/108060353/, 11/24/11, atl]

The U.S. position could become …..  his quest and hope for success.

Fleet departure crushes American Naval credibility—destroys hegemony

Cropsy, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, 11

[Seth, “The US Navy in Distress”, Strategic Analysis Volume 34, Issue 1, 2010, 11/24/11, atl]

American maritime strategy has …..seapower surrendered slowly over decades.

Perception of credible deterrence key to US hegemony and international security alliances

Etzioni, professor of international relations at George Washington University, 11

[Amiai, “The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility”, March-April 2011 – MILITARY REVIEW, 11/24/11, atl]

As of the beginning of 2011, these ….. live up to its commitments overseas.

Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction-multipolarity is inevitable but absolute US power smoothes the transition and is empirically correlated to great-power peace

Barnett, Naval War College Warfare Analysis & Research Department professor, 2011

(Thomas, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads”, 3-7, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads, DOA: 10-9-11, ldg)

Let me be more blunt: As ….. embedded in the geometry to come.

U.S. hegemonic decline causes global great-power war, collapses trade and spreads economic nationalism and protectionism

Zhang et al., Carnegie Endowment researcher, 2011

(Yuhan, “America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry”, 1-22, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/, DOA: 9-21-11, ldg)

This does not necessarily mean ….. be devoid of unrivalled US primacy.

That causes great power war

Hillebrand, Kentucky diplomacy professor, 2010

(Evan, “Deglobalization Scenarios: Who Wins? Who Loses?”, Global Economy Journal, Volume 10, Issue 2, ebsco, ldg)

A long line of writers from Cruce (1623) to ….. and the probability for interstate war rises.

War is at its lowest level in history because of US primacy---best statistical studies prove heg solves war because it makes democratic peace resilient globalization sustainable---it’s the deeper cause of proximate checks against war

Owen, UVA politics professor, 2011

(John, “Don’t Discount Hegemony”, 2-11, http://www.cato-unbound.org/2011/02/11/john-owen/dont-discount-hegemony/, DOA: 10-9-11, ldg)

We would still need to ….. support for liberal democracy remains strong.

Absolute decline means the US will become uncooperative and desperate---hegemonic wars will ensue

Goldstein, Penn IR professor, 2007

(Avery, “Power transitions, institutions, and China's rise in East Asia: Theoretical expectations and evidence,” Journal of Strategic Studies, Volume 30, Issue 4 & 5 August, ebsco, ldg)

Two closely related, though ….. to the possible crossover.19 pg. 647-650

Every credible measure of study shows violence is down because of everything consistent with the aff---heg, democracy, liberal trade---it’s only a question of sustaining current dynamics and preventing shocks to the system

Pinker, Harvard psychology professor, 2011

(Steven, “Violence Vanquished”, 9-24, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904106704576583203589408180.html, DOA; 10-9-11, ldg)

Believe it or not, the ….. with the electronic global village.

Focus on strategic deterrence and democracy are key to adverting crisis escalation—reject the infinite number of root causes that debilitate action

Moore, UVA law professor, 2004

(John, “Beyond the Democratic Peace: Solving the War Puzzle”, 44 Va. J. Int'l L. 341, Winter, lexis, ldg)

If major interstate war is ….. are dramatically increased or decreased?

Shocks to the system are the ONLY propensity for conflict—globalization and liberal norms have eradicated warfare and structural violence—every field study proves

Horgan, Stevens Institute of Technology Center for Science director, 2009

(John, “The End of the Age of War”, 12-6, http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2009/12/06/the-end-of-the-age-of-war.html, DOA: 10-9-11, ldg)

The economic crisis was supposed ….. International Peace Research Institute in Oslo.

Thus the plan: The United States federal government should provide civil society assistance to Bahrain.

Contention Two: Solvency                    

US support for civil society causes successful BICI implementation and long term reforms

Talamanca, Secretary-General of No Peace Without Justice, 11

[Niccolo' Figa, 11/22/11, “Bahrain: one step forward or two steps back?,” No Peace Without Justice, http://www.npwj.org/MENA/Bahrain-one-step-forward-or-two-steps-back.html, 1/9/12, atl]

How the report turns out, and ….. ensuring acknowledgement and justice for the victims.

Implementing BICI recommendations is a critical first step towards reconciliation

Walker, former British Ambassador to Bahrain, 11

[Harold, Former Chairman of the Royal Society of Asian Affairs and former Chairman of the British Society for Middle Eastern Studies, 12-6-2011, “Bahrain after the BICI,” Conservative Middle East Council, http://cmec.org.uk/blog/bahrain-after-the-bici/, 1/9/12, atl]

The truth is that Bahrain …..  the nature of the ruling regime.

US support breaks the deadlock in Bahrain—most recent and qualified evidence

Gershman, President of the National Endowment for Democracy, 11

[Carl, December 1, 2011, “The Price of Freedom and Democracy: Defiant Bahrainis and the Arab Spring”, http://www.ned.org/about/board/meet-our-president/archived-presentations-and-articles/the-price-of-freedom-and-democrac, 1/9/12, atl]

In fact, if there is not an ….. this opportunity and realize its full potential.

Without US action the opposition will discredit the reforms – US support gives the King credibility and prevents anti-Americanism

Fisher, managed economic development programs for the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development in the Middle East, North Africa, Latin America, and Asia, 12/27

[William,12-27-2011, “In Bahrain’s Hour of Peril, Where Does The U.S. Stand?,” The Public Record, http://pubrecord.org/world/9959/bahrains-peril-where-stand/, 1/9/12, atl]

He added: “The reforms agreed ….. priority for US policy­-makers.

Contention Three: Framing               

Academic debate over policy issues like the response to the Arab Spring is critical to improve policymaking---alternatives cede the political.

Walt, Harvard International Affairs professor, 2011

(Stephen, “International Affairs and the Public Sphere”, 7-21, http://publicsphere.ssrc.org/walt-international-affairs-and-the-public-sphere/, DOA: 9-23-11, ldg)

Academics can make at least ….. understand a complex and changing world.[8]

The role of the ballot is to simulate enactment of the plan. That’s the most productive way to engage Mid East politics

Heydemann, former Columbia political science professor, 2002

(Steven, “Defending the Discipline,” Journal of Democracy Vol. 13, No. 3, project muse, ldg)

Though Kramer's book is severely …..  liberalization in the Middle East during the course of the 1990s.

American public discourse is crucial to breaking down Islamophobia and orientalism

Telhami, Anwar Sadat professor for peace and development, University of Maryland, 05

[Shelby, “DEMOCRACY: RISING TIDE OR MIRAGE?” Middle East Policy Council Summer 2005, 1/5/12, atl]

I think we all agree that, ….. the sharpness of the clash on the other side.

Doing nothing in Bahrain reinscribes colonialism

Sadeghi, Middle East specialist with an emphasis on Iran, Pakistan and the Gulf countries, 11

[Shirin, PhD in Middle Eastern Studies, March 16, 2011, “The fabrications of Bahrain’s Shiite-Sunni divide”, http://criticalppp.com/archives/42877, 7/23/11, atl]

For decades, international news ….. they rule over are primarily Shiite.

Zero risk of intervention

Youngs et al., FRIDE Democratisation programme coordinator, 2006

(Richard, “Democracy Promotion and the European Left: Ambivalence Confused?”, December, http://www.fride.org/publication/19/democracy-promotion-and-the-european-left:-ambivalence-confused, DOA: 9-23-11, ldg)

The left needs to get ….. own internal debates during the 1990s.

Aid now

Aljazeera, 1/27

[January 27, 2012, http://blogs.aljazeera.com/liveblog/egypt-jan-27-2012-1742, 2/13/12, atl]

Ruth Bader Ginsburg, associate ….. Grand Mufti as part of her visit.

The United States federal judiciary should substantially increase its judicial exchanges with Egypt.

Contention One – Stability

Lack of judicial reform is the biggest barriers to a stable transition – lack of reform leads instability

Elshinnawi, former President of the Egyptian-American Cultural Association, 2/20

[Mohamed, served as an International Radio Broadcaster, Senior Editor, Chief of News Coverage, Senior Producer and now currently serves as Senior TV Journalist, February 20, 2012, “Transitional Justice Seen as Key in Building Egypt’s Democracy”, http://middleeastvoices.com/2012/02/transitional-justice-seen-as-key-in-building-egypts-democracy-89426/, 2/21/12, atl]

A legacy of past political oppression, ….. no political power feels left out.”

SCAF will be purged as a result – a mediated transition is key

Mallat, Presidential Professor of Law at the University of Utah S.J. Quinney College of Law, 12/27

[Chibli, December 27, 2011, JURIST Contributing Editor Chibli Mallat of Harvard Law School, “Saving the Egyptian Revolution from the Military”,, http://jurist.org/forum/2011/12/chibli-mallat-egypt-military.php, 2/14/12, atl]

It is probably too late. Too ….. the Middle East nonviolent revolution.

That makes regional war in the Middle East and Horn of Africa inevitable

Copley, Editor – Global Information System and Defense & Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy, 11

[Gregory O, “Strategic Ramifications of the Egyptian Crisis”, World Tribune, 2-1, http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/ WTARC/2011/me_egypt0088_02_01.asp, 2/15/12, atl]

In the preface to the Defense & ….. Islamic Republic of Eastern Arabia.

Horn of Africa instability causes major power wars

Glick, the senior Middle East fellow at the Center for Security Policy, 07

[Caroline, Dec. 10, 2007, “Condi's African Holiday”, http://townhall.com/columnists/carolineglick/2007/12/11/condis_african_holiday/page/full/, 2/13/12, atl]

The Horn of Africa is a dangerous …..  major source of regional conflict.

Middle East war causes chemical, biological, and nuclear use

Russell, senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, 09

[James, spring 2009, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East”, Atomic Energy Commission (CEA), 10/13/11, atl]

Strategic stability in the region ….. risk for the entire world.

Their defense is outdated and optimistic

London, President Emeritus of Hudson Institute, 10

[Herbert I., June 23, 2010, “The Coming Crisis In The Middle East”, http://www.herblondon.org/7648/coming-crisis-in-middle-east, 10/13/11, atl]

The gathering storm in the ….. That is a truly bad sign.

Judicial exchanges with the SCC are crucial to upholding global norms of Judicial Independence

Slaughter, Bert G. Kerstetter University Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, 04

[Anne-Marie, “A New World Order”, 2004, Princeton University Press, P. 99, 2/14/12, atl]

Perhaps the clearest illustration ….. the reminder: “I am not alone.”

Judicial Independence is essential to stability in the short and long term- solves protests and genuine commitment to human rights treaties like the ICC

IBAHRI, 11

[“Justice at a Crossroads: The Legal Profession and the Rule of Law in the New Egypt”, November 2011, Report of the International Bar Association’s Human Rights Institute (IBAHRI), Supported by the Open Society Institute, International Bar Association, 2/14/12, atl]

Egypt’s judicial process since the ….. impartial judiciary under the ICCPR.

Genuine endorsement of the ICC ensures long term stability

Tawab, International Advocacy Adviser to the Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies, 11

[Ziad Abdel, Why Egypt should join the ICC, 4/12/11, http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/396347, 2/14/12, atl]

One of underlying messages of ….. Statute can be a crucial first step.

US exchanges are key – only US influence is steeped in a deep rooted tradition of judicial independence

Gur-Arie, director of the International Judicial Relations Office of the Federal Judicial Center, 09

[Mira, 15 Oct 2009, “Judges Coming Together: International Exchanges and the U.S. Judiciary”, http://www.uspolicy.be/headline/judges-coming-together, 2/14/12, atl]

Visitors to the U.S. courts ….. court administrators in the U.S. judiciary.

The signal of the plan is sufficient to solve

Kersch, Assistant Professor of Politics, Princeton University, 06

[Ken, 8/8/2006 “The Supreme Court And International Relations Theory”, Albany Law Review, Vol. 69, No. 3, p. 771, 2006, Princeton Law and Public Affairs Working Paper No. 06-0112/13/12, atl]

Many foreign policy liberals have ….. order with the emerging international one.

Specifically, Jordan is looking towards Egypt now for reform but comprehensive reform is necessary

Luck, Political Commentator and Jordan Times Reporter, 11

[Taylor, December 21, 2011, “Egyptian Brotherhood ‘model of success’ for Jordanian Islamists”, http://archive.jordantimes.com/?news=43545, 2/19/12, atl]

As the Egyptian elections near, ….. we believe they will choose us.”

Egyptian judicial independence spills over to Jordan

Burgin, PhD candidate – Regulatory Institutions Network – Australian National University, 07

[Michelle L, Arab Law Quarterly 21 (2007) 135-169, “Judicial Reform and the Possibility of Democratic Rule in Jordan: a Policy Perspective on Judicial Independence”,  2/14/12, atl]

Over the past few years, Egypt ….. be the subject of this discussion.

Judicial independence is key to GCC Jordan alliance

Noe, Beirut correspondents for the World View, 12/27

[Nicholas, December 27, 2011. “What Really Frightens the Oil-Rich Arab Monarchies: Noe & Raad,” http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-28/what-really-frightens-the-oil-rich-arab-monarchies-noe-raad, 2/13/12, atl]

Politically speaking, the entry of ….. as the best form of revenge.

GCC entry is key to Jordanian instability – now is key.

MENAFN, 12

[January 1, 2012. “Jordan- Despite setbacks, national economy ‘resilient, salvageable’”, http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=1093468514, 2/14/12, atl]

Jordan’s economy has shown some ….. avoiding long-term fiscal consequences

Jordanian instability spills over to Israel – reform is key

Rettman, op-ed editor of EU Observer, 12

[Andrew, February 8, 2012, “EU concerned about potential instability in Jordan”, http://euobserver.com/24/115186, 2/20/12, atl]

In recent weeks, they stopped ….. of the Jordan river," he said.

Goes nuclear

Schoenfeld, senior editor of Commentary, 98

[Gabriel, “Thinking About the Unthinkable in the Middle East”, http://www.commentarymagazine.com/article/thinking-about-the-unthinkable-in-the-middle-east/, 2/21/12, atl]

If preemption is largely ruled ….. heavy toll on civilian morale.

And it spills over to Iraqi instability

Terrill, General Douglas MacArthur Professor of National Security Affairs at SSI, 08

[W. Andrew, January 2008, “JORDANIAN NATIONAL SECURITY AND THE FUTURE OF MIDDLE EAST STABILITY”, Strategic Studies Institute, 2/14/12, atl]

The United States and Jordan have ….. function  by spillover problems from Iraq.

Extinction

Ferguson, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, 06

[Niall, Professor of History at Harvard, “The Next War of the World,” Foreign Affairs, September-October, 2/14/12, atl]

What makes the escalating civil …..  likely on Palestine and Mesopotamia.

Lack of judicial independence and rule of law is causing Jordan instability

Al-Khalidi, Jordanian journalist and a writer for Reuters, 11

[Suleiman, January 13, 2011, Reuters, “FEATURE-Tribal feuds threaten Jordan's stability”, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/13/jordan-tribes-idUSLDE7051QR20110113, 2/14/12, atl]

SALT, Jordan, Jan 13 (Reuters) - A ….. British protectorate nearly a century ago.

Contention Two – Judicial Leadership

Judicial leadership has waned – judicial exchanges to Egypt are essential to reinvigorate global influence and solve Egyptian stability

Suto, Regional President of the American Constitution Society, 11

[Ryan, Friday, July 15, 2011, “Judicial Diplomacy: The International Impact of the Supreme Court”, http://jurist.org/dateline/2011/07/ryan-suto-judicial-diplomacy.php, 2/14/12, atl]

The reasons for the American ….. an opportunity that should not be wasted.

Action towards Egypt now is uniquely key – it’s the center of the judicial world

IBAHRI, 11

[“Justice at a Crossroads: The Legal Profession and the Rule of Law in the New Egypt”, November 2011, Report of the International Bar Association’s Human Rights Institute (IBAHRI), Supported by the Open Society Institute, International Bar Association, 2/14/12, atl]

20. Egypt has one of the most developed ….. and detained in an ordinary Egyptian jail.

Engaging Egyptian courts spills over – builds up global influence courts use to influence other issues

Obiyo, runs a Finance & Strategy Practice at Corporate Executive Board, 11

[Chuki, Jun-10-11, “Judicial Return on Investment”, http://myafricanplan.com/2011/06/judicial-return-on-investment/, 2/14/12, atl]

This paper argues that the ….. that limits the potency of the ATS.

Judicial leadership on rule of law is key to terrorism, alliances, the economy, failed states, and hegemony

Feldman, law professor at Harvard University and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, 08

[Noah, When Judges Make Foreign Policy, September 25, 2008, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/28/magazine/28law-t.html?pagewanted=all,  2/19/12, atl]

Looking at today’s problem through ….. have often done the world over.

These wars escalate – influence is key

Brzezinski, national security advisor under U.S. President Jimmy Carter, 12

[Zbigniew, Jan/Feb 2012, “Meet the weaker countries that will suffer from American decline”, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/03/8_geopolitically_endangered_species?page=0, 12/14/12, atl]

With the decline of America's ….. vulnerability of America's Persian Gulf allies.

Alliances prevent nuclear war

Ross, professor of political science at Simon Fraser University, 99

[Douglas, Winter 1998/1999, “Canada’s functional isolationism and the future of weapons of mass destruction”, International Journal, 2/14/12, atl]

Thus, an easily accessible tax ….. warfare involving nuclear or other WMD.

Failed states cause great power wars – power vacuums and competing interests make intervention inevitable – effectiveness key to deter escalation

Grygiel, John Hopkins IR professor, 2009

(Jakub, “Vacuum Wars: The Coming Competition Over Failed States,” American Interest, Jul/Aug 2009, http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=622, ldg)

Mention “failed states” in an ….. involvement of two or more powers.

Judicial influence is critical to overall influence and effective power projection

Frank, J.D. Candidate, the University of Iowa College of Law, 07

[Danielj, “Constitutional Interpretation Revisited: The Effects of a Delicate Supreme Court Balance on the Inclusion of Foreign Law in American Jurisprudence” , 2007; B.A., Carleton College, 2001, 2/14/12, atl]

Conservative politicians echo …..  not appear to be a realistic option.

Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction-multipolarity is inevitable but absolute US power eases the transition and is empirically correlated to great-power peace

Barnett, Naval War College Warfare Analysis & Research Department professor, 2011

(Thomas, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads”, 3-7, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads, DOA: 10-9-11, ldg)

Let me be more blunt: As ….. deeply embedded in the geometry to come.

Contention three – Solvency

Unconditional support for judicial independence resolves public anti-Americanism and prevents a violent implosion of the country

Human Rights First, 1/26

[January 26, 2012, “Egypt’s Transition to Democracy One Year On: Recommendations for U.S. Policy”, Human Rights First Blueprint, January 2012, 2/22/12, atl]

The U.S. government is widely ….. followed by U.S. policy makers.

They’ll say yes – they’ve backed off the December raids and they respect rule of law

Democracy Digest, 2/7

[February 7, 2012, “Egypt set to pull back from NGO crackdown?”, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2012/02/egypt-set-to-pull-back-from-ngo-crackdown/, 2/21/12, atl]

Egypt’s government is preparing ….. of planning and international cooperation.

We don’t need to win a full relinquishment of power to solve – the US can reduce SCAF control enough to restore stability

Hilal, co-director of the New America Foundation Middle East Task Force, 11

[Leila, November 25, 2011, “Egypt needs a new road map, not just elections”, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/11/25/egypt_needs_a_new_road_map_not_just_elections, 2/22/12, atl]

Most crucial of all, the …..

the wrong side of histor