Observation One—Inherency
The democratic transition in Yemen has stalled and Saleh is planning on passing power to his son
Spencer, Middle East Strategic Analyst for The London Guardian, 8-29-11
(James, “How Yemen’s Revolution was Thwarted,” The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/aug/29/yemen-revolution-saleh-arab-spring)
While the world focuses on events… discovering self-interested altruism.
Stability in Yemen is on the brink now
El-Mokhtar, Political Analyst, 8-26-11
(Mohamed, “Amazing Determination of the Yemeni People,” http://www.palestinechronicle.com/view_article_details.php?id=17062)
The current stalemate in Yemen… other basic commodities.
Therefore we offer the following plan—
The United States Federal Government should substantially increase its democracy assistance to the Yemeni democratic youth movement
Observation Two—Advantages
Advantage One—Civil War
Quick resolution to the political crisis in Yemen is key to preventing the south from seceding—sparking a civil war
Horton, Jamestown Foundation Senior Analyst, 6-23-11
(Michael, “Tribes, Salafists and Separatists: Yemen’s Changing Political Landscape,” http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=38091&cHash=db2dbd41bb040c15322c5eec43d317c3)
While increased local control… pressures being placed on the country.
Every day Saleh stays in power increases the chances of civil war—only public U.S. stances against him will compel him to relinquish power
Raghavan, Washington Post Staff Writer, 4-20-11
(Sudarsan, “In Yemen, anger from activists over U.S. policy,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/in-yemen-anger-from-activists-over-us-policy/2011/04/13/AFYxYIEE_story.html)
The crisis in Yemen… even civil war, they warn.
Civil war in Yemen spills-over to Saudi Arabia
Haykel, Princeton Professor of Near Eastern Studies, 8-19-11
(Bernard, “Saudi Arabia’s policy of stability at all costs may backfire,” The Daily Star, http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2011/Aug-19/Saudi-Arabias-policy-of-stability-at-all-costs-may-backfire.ashx#axzz1VTwlaPFP)
Neighboring Yemen is a more immediate threat… will strengthen the regime.
Saudi instability immediately collapses the global economy
Stewart, Reporter for The London Guardian, 2-27-11
(Heather, “Still-fragile world economy braced for effects of another oil shock,” The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/feb/27/world-economy-braced-for-oil-shock)
At the same time… causing confidence to collapse.
Global economic crisis causes war-strong statistical support
Royal, director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010
(Jedediah, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal, and Political Perspectives, pg 213-215, ldg)
Less intuitive is how periods… ancillary to those views.
Advantage Two—WMD Terrorism
U.S. democracy aid is key to ensure Al Qaeda doesn’t take hold in Yemen
Christian Science Monitor, 3-21-11
(“Yemen will be the big test for democracy vs. Al Qaeda,” http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/the-monitors-view/2011/0321/Yemen-will-be-the-big-test-for-democracy-vs.-Al-Qaeda)
Unlike Tunisia, Egypt, or Libya… emptiness of its promise.
Defeating AQAP is vital to ending Al-Qaeda
Terrill, National Security Affairs Research Professor, 2-15-11
(Andrew, “The Conflicts in Yemen and US National Security,” http://www.defencetalk.com/the-conflicts-in-yemen-and-us-national-security-32049/)
Additionally, Yemen’s government has… emerging insurgent movement.
AQAP will acquire a WMD
Grossman, 2-11-11
(Elaine, “U.S. Counterterror Chief: "Dirty Bomb" as Much a Risk as Biological Weapon,” Global Security Newswire, http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20110211_3526.php)
A dirty bomb would use conventional… with ease and speed.
WMD attack causes global nuclear conflict
Ayson, Victoria University Centre for Strategic Studies, 10
(Robert, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volumne 33, Issue 7, July 2010, p. EBSCO)
A terrorist nuclear attack… with a devastating response
Observation Three—Solvency
Only U.S. recognition can provide the Yemeni youth movement with the legitimacy they need to leverage democratic reforms
Al-Shamahi, Editor of Comment Middle East, 7-7-11
(Abubark, “Where Next for Yemen? Perspectives on the Youth Movement,” http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Meetings/Meeting%20Transcripts/070711yemen.pdf)
I think to reinforce what… or see that happening
U.S. assistance to the Yemeni democratic youth movement is vital to enhancing their power and influence—ensuring real domestic democratic reforms happen
Rettig, Writer for U.S. News & World Report, 6-14-11
(Jessica, “Limited Options for United States in Yemen,” U.S. News & World Report, http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2011/06/14/limited-options-for-united-states-in-yemen)
One way the United States… restating the status quo.
Strong Yemeni youth movement is key to ensuring a stable democratic transition
Root, Director of Mideast Reports, 8-16-11
(Tik, “Yemen's youth: the best hope for democracy,” http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/08/201181514211383535.html)
The Youth are not without… will be considerably slimmer.
U.S. support for the Yemeni democratic youth movement is vital to ensuring a stable democratic transition and increasing domestic stability
Al-Shamahi, Editor of Comment Middle East, 8-8-11
(Abubakr, “Taking a chance on a democratic Yemen,” http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/08/2011847134790380.html)
The youth movement presents… the country or the region.
