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LibertyFH-AFF

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  • Binghamton 1AC

    • Tournament: Binghamton | Round: 1 | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Plan Text

      Plan: The United States Federal Government should increase its democracy assistance for Yemen by establishing an International Counter Narcotics and Law Enforcement program for Yemen in order to support the rule of law.

      Contention One – Stability

      The US should permanently provide Yemen with INCLE funds to support the rule of law and establish a stable police force

      Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, 2011

      [Jeremy M., "Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations," Congressional Research Service, 6-8-11, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL34170.pdf, accessed 7-31-11, mtf]

      International Counter Narcotics and Law Enforcement … as appropriate, the criminal code.”

      INCLE key to support rule of law in Yemen through police, justice, and prison development programs

      INL, 2011

      [BUREAU OF INTERNATIONAL NARCOTICS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT AFFAIRS, "FY 2011 Program and Budget Guide: Near East," http://www.state.gov/p/inl/rls/rpt/pbg/fy2011/149372.htm, accessed 8-3-11, mtf]

      Yemen Budget Summary ($000)  … equipment donations. This is a new project.

      Police reform key to taking down Al-Qaeda

      Knoetgen, CEJISS columnist, 2011

      [Capt. Peter, Commanding Officer US Naval Forces Central Command, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, "Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil," 5-16-11, http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil, accessed 8-6-11, mtf]

      Within a diplomatic context, the US should …assistance and aggressive offensive action.

      Effective policing key internal link to solving terrorism – wins hearts and minds of people and provide long-term solvency

      Grono, Deputy President of International Crisis Group, 2011

      (Nick, Masters in Public Policy from Princeton, "Testimony to the Dutch Parliament on the Deployment of a Police Training Mission to Afghanistan," International Crisis Group is an NGO committed to preventing and resolving deadly conflict, 1-24-11, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/speeches/2011/testimony-to-dutch-parliament-afghanistan-police-mission.aspx, accessed 9-9-11, mtf)

      1. Good policing is critical to counter insurgency  … governance are all out of reach.

      AQAP will attack oil facilities in Saudi Arabia

      Ulrichsen, research fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science, 2011

      (Kristian Coates, deputy director of the Kuwait Programme on Development, Governance and Globalisation in the Gulf States, "The Geopolitics of Insecurity in the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula," Middle East Policy Vol. 18.2, Summer, p. 120–135, Wiley Online Library, accessed 10-10-11, mtf)

      The reconstitution of AQAP in January …regional stability in the Arabian Peninsula.9

      Attacks on Saudi oil facilities collapse the global economy

      Gartenstein-Ross, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 2011

      (Daveed, directs the Center for the Study of Terrorist Radicalization, "Osama's Oil Obsession," Foreign Policy, 5-23-11, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/05/23/osamas_oil_obsession, accessed 10-10-11, mtf)

      Bin Laden long believed that undermining …that they didn't think about."

      Saudi oil production is irreplaceable – affects every indicator of the economy

      Babej, Forbes marketing columnist, 2011

      (Marc E., co-founder of Reason inc., "A Saudi Oil Supply Disruption-The Ultimate Marketing Crisis Scenario," Forbes, 3-29-11, http://www.forbes.com/sites/marcbabej/2011/03/29/a-saudi-oil-supply-disruption-the-ultimate-marketing-crisis-scenario/, accessed 10-12-11, mtf)

      And still: in 2011, the term “unlikely” … products containing oil derivatives.

      AQAP will strike the Bab Al-Mandeb strait, taking out oil transportation in the region

      Watkins, Oil Diplomacy editor, 2010

      (Eric, "Al-Qaeda's new oil strategy," Oil and Gas Journal, 2-15-10, Factiva, accessed 10-5-11, mtf)

      The oil and gas industry has long heard … world's oil reserves are."

      No substitutes – the Bab el-Mandeb is a key oil chokepoint – instability causes oil shocks

      Roman, Editorial Assistant The Encyclopedia of Earth, 2008

      (Alejandra, former research assistant at BU Center for Energy and Environmental Studies; Cutler Cleveland Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment at Boston University; Tom Lawrence Public Service Associate with the University of Georgia and Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering at Purdue, "Bab el-Mandeb," Encyclopedia of Earth, 9-12-08, http://www.eoearth.org/article/Bab_el-Mandeb, accessed 10-5-11, mtf)

      The Bab el-Mandeb (Bab al-Mandab) strait … upward pressure on world oil prices.

      Oil shocks cause global economic collapse, great power wars, and intensified warming

      King, Center for a New American Security, 2008

      (Neil Jr., "Peak Oil: A Survey of Security Concerns," Center for a New American Security Energy Security Visionaries Series, July, http://www.aspousa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/_CNAS_King_Peak_Oil_WorkingPaper.pdf, accessed 10-12-11, mtf)

      Many commentators in the United States …blame for the country’s  travails.

      Global economic crisis causes war---strong statistical support 

      Royal, director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010

      (Jedediah, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal, and Political Perspectives, pg 213-215, ldg)

      Less intuitive is how periods of economic …be considered ancillary to those views.

      Contention Two – Saudi Arabia

      US-Saudi relations down now – plan solves

      Paikin, columnist for the Prince Arthur Herald, 2011

      (Zach, "Paikin: W(h)ither Yemen?," Canadian student news source, 7-7-11, http://princearthurherald.com/archives/5783, accessed 8-14-11, mtf)

      Yemen’s importance to American …Mubarak amid a popular uprising.

      US action in Yemen key to solidify Saudi relations and counter Iran

      Friedman, Chief Executive Officer and founder of Stratfor, 2011

      (George, Ph.D. in government from Cornell, "Iraq, Iran and the Next Move," Real Clear World is a global news source, 4-26-11, http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2011/04/26/iraq_iran_and_the_next_move_99494.html, accessed 8-14-11, mtf)

      As the United States leaves Iraq, … extreme risk for the United States.

      Iran is contending for preeminence and Saudi Arabia is the key roadblock

      Spindle and Coker, WSJ writers, 2011

      (Bill is the Middle East Bureau Chief at Dow Jones/WSJ; and Margaret is a Middle East Correspondent at WSJ, "The New Cold War," WSJ, 4-16-11, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704116404576262744106483816.html, accessed 8-19-11, mtf)

      For three months, the Arab world has been …to develop one of its own.

      Relations key to check Iran prolif and regional instability

      Global News Wire, 2011

      (Compilation database, Regulatory Intelligence Data, "GATES, SAUDI KING DISCUSS DEFENSE RELATIONSHIP," 4-6-11, lexis, accessed 8-17-11, mtf)

      Gates arrived here late this morning …of our key partners and stability in the region."

      Iran prolif leads to Middle East prolif and escalates into nuclear war

      Uchino, Kyoto University science professor, 2011

      (Yoshinari, "Iran’s Nuclear Program and U.S. Security Policy," Proceedings of The 1st International Symposium on Liberal Arts and General Education, 3-10-11, http://www.viz.media.kyoto-u.ac.jp/sympo2010/data/Paper_Collection.pdf#page=47, p. 42-53, accessed 8-14-11, mtf)

      If Iran goes nuclear, the relationship between … against nuclear-armed Iran.”[36]

      Iran will have nuclear weapons and intercontinental missiles by 2015 – has hegemonic intentions

      Uchino, Kyoto University science professor, 2011

      (Yoshinari, "Iran’s Nuclear Program and U.S. Security Policy," Proceedings of The 1st International Symposium on Liberal Arts and General Education, 3-10-11, http://www.viz.media.kyoto-u.ac.jp/sympo2010/data/Paper_Collection.pdf#page=47, p. 42-53, accessed 8-14-11, mtf)

      First, this section of this paper examines  …making deals over the nuclear  program.[23]

      Middle East prolif won’t lead to deterrence – miscalculation and multiple scenarios for exchange ensure extinction

      Russell, Research associate in Georgetown University’s institute for the study of diplomacy, 06

      [Richard L., September 1, 2006, Military Review, “Military Planning for a Middle East Stockpiled with Nuclear Weapons”, 8/21/11, ADS]

      How would the Middle East be affected …that exists in Pakistan today.

      Best studies show that even a small scale nuclear war would lead to nuclear winter, cause massive climate change, and result in extinction

      Robock, professor of climatology at Rutgers University, 2009

      (Alan, Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers and associate director of its Center for Environmental Prediction, "Nuclear winter," The Encyclopedia of Earth, 1-6-09, http://www.eoearth.org/article/Nuclear_winter, accessed 9-9-11, mtf)

      Introduction  Nuclear winter is a term …possibility of a nuclear environmental catastrophe.


    • Plan: The United States Federal Government should establish an International Counter Narcotics and Law Enforcement program for Yemen.

      Contention One – Stability

      The US should permanently provide Yemen with INCLE funds to support the rule of law and establish a stable police force
      Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, 2011
      [Jeremy M., "Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations," Congressional Research Service, 6-8-11, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL34170.pdf, accessed 7-31-11, mtf]

      International Counter Narcotics and Law Enforcement … as appropriate, the criminal code.”

      INCLE key to support rule of law in Yemen through police, justice, and prison development programs
      INL, 2011
      [BUREAU OF INTERNATIONAL NARCOTICS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT AFFAIRS, "FY 2011 Program and Budget Guide: Near East," http://www.state.gov/p/inl/rls/rpt/pbg/fy2011/149372.htm, accessed 8-3-11, mtf]

      Yemen Budget Summary ($000)  FY 2009 … This is a new project.

      A police force can stabilize a nation and establish a secure civil society with an effective rule of law and internal security
      US Dept of State, 2010
      [Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, "Iraq Police Development Program," 11-12-10, http://www.state.gov/p/inl/rls/fs/150855.htm, accessed 7-31-11, mtf]

      Civilian police missions have become … in partnership with the community.

      Effective police force key to rule of law and regional stability
      DFID, 2011
      (Department for International Development, Foreign and Commonwealth Office, and Ministry of Defence of the UK, "Building Stability Overseas Strategy," July, http://www.dfid.gov.uk/Documents/publications1/Building-stability-overseas-strategy.pdf, accessed 8-29-11, mtf)

      Security and justice matter…  4.5 From … is accessible to all is important.

      Two impacts- A. Maritime security
      Yemen stability key to solve piracy and maritime conflict
      Pikulsky, Washington College Research Assistant, 2011
      (Ted, "What happens when Yemen runs out of oil?," 7-13-11, http://inssblog.wordpress.com/2011/07/13/what-happens-when-yemen-runs-out-of-oil/, accessed 7-30-11, mtf)

      Since the January protests calling for … the increased danger to maritime activity.

      Yemen collapse endangers Bab al-Mandeb strait
      Meredith and Strouse, Energy Compass, 2011
      [Emily and Thomas, "Yemen: Saudi Arabia's Complex Interest," 6-10-11, lexis, accessed 8-2-11, mtf]

      Saleh's patronage system  in which … Pham of the Atlantic Council.

      An attack at Bab el Mandeb would cause massive oil shocks and cripple the global economy
      Luft and Korin, Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, 2004
      [Gal is the executive director and Anne is the director at IAGS, "Terrorism Goes to Sea," Foreign Affairs 83.64, Nov./Dec., p. 61-72, Hein Online, accessed 8-3-11, mtf]

      Terrorist groups such as Hezbollah, … carrying Russian and Caspian oil.

      Global economic crisis causes war
      -strong statistical support
      Royal, director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010
      (Jedediah, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal, and Political Perspectives, pg 213-215, ldg)

      Less intuitive is how periods of economic … be considered ancillary to those views.

      B. Terrorism-
      Police reform key to taking down Al-Qaeda – empirics prove its critical to Yemen’s stability
      Knoetgen, CEJISS columnist, 2011
      [Capt. Peter, Commanding Officer US Naval Forces Central Command, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, "Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil," 5-16-11, http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil, accessed 8-6-11, mtf]

      Within a diplomatic context, the US … assistance and aggressive offensive action.

      Effective policing key internal link to solving terrorism – wins hearts and minds of people and provide long-term solvency
      Grono, Deputy President of International Crisis Group, 2011
      (Nick, Masters in Public Policy from Princeton, "Testimony to the Dutch Parliament on the Deployment of a Police Training Mission to Afghanistan," International Crisis Group is an NGO committed to preventing and resolving deadly conflict, 1-24-11, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/speeches/2011/testimony-to-dutch-parliament-afghanistan-police-mission.aspx, accessed 9-9-11, mtf)
       

      1. Good policing is critical to counter … governance are all out of reach.

        Continued instability leads to Al-Qaeda takeover – will strike US this year
        Xinhua, 2011
        ["Could Al-Qaida Launch Attacks on U.S. from Yemen?," 5-18-11, Factiva, http://english.cri.cn/6966/2011/05/18/2321s638149.htm, accessed 8-2-11, mtf]

        Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) could … a flight bound for Detroit.

        A nuclear strike by al Qaeda causes US-China-Russia war, environmental collapse, and extinction
        Morgan, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, 2009
        (Dennis, World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race Futures, Volume 41, Issue 10, December, ldg)

        In a remarkable website on nuclear … or reckless use of strategic weapons

        Contention Two – Saudi Arabia

        US-Saudi relations down now – plan solves
        Paikin, columnist for the Prince Arthur Herald, 2011
        (Zach, "Paikin: W(h)ither Yemen?," Canadian student news source, 7-7-11, http://princearthurherald.com/archives/5783, accessed 8-14-11, mtf)

        Yemen’s importance to American security … Mubarak amid a popular uprising.

        US action in Yemen key to solidify Saudi relations and counter Iran
        Friedman, Chief Executive Officer and founder of Stratfor, 2011
        (George, Ph.D. in government from Cornell, "Iraq, Iran and the Next Move," Real Clear World is a global news source, 4-26-11, http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2011/04/26/iraq_iran_and_the_next_move_99494.html, accessed 8-14-11, mtf)

        As the United States leaves Iraq, … extreme risk for the United States.

        Relations key to check Iran prolif and regional instability
        Global News Wire, 2011
        (Compilation database, Regulatory Intelligence Data, "GATES, SAUDI KING DISCUSS DEFENSE RELATIONSHIP," 4-6-11, lexis, accessed 8-17-11, mtf)

        Gates arrived here late this … partners and stability in the region."

        Iran prolif leads to Middle East prolif and escalates into nuclear war
        Uchino, Kyoto University science professor, 2011
        (Yoshinari, "Iran’s Nuclear Program and U.S. Security Policy," Proceedings of The 1st International Symposium on Liberal Arts and General Education, 3-10-11, http://www.viz.media.kyoto-u.ac.jp/sympo2010/data/Paper_Collection.pdf#page=47, p. 42-53, accessed 8-14-11, mtf)

        If Iran goes nuclear, the … against nuclear-armed Iran.”[36]

        Middle East prolif won’t lead to deterrence – miscalculation and multiple scenarios for exchange ensure extinction
        Russell, Research associate in Georgetown University’s institute for the study of diplomacy, 06
        [Richard L., September 1, 2006, Military Review, “Military Planning for a Middle East Stockpiled with Nuclear Weapons”, 8/21/11, ADS]

        How would the Middle East be … that exists in Pakistan today.

        Best studies show that even a small scale nuclear war would lead to nuclear winter, cause massive climate change, and result in extinction
        Robock, professor of climatology at Rutgers University, 2009
        (Alan, Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers and associate director of its Center for Environmental Prediction, "Nuclear winter," The Encyclopedia of Earth, 1-6-09, http://www.eoearth.org/article/Nuclear_winter, accessed 9-9-11, mtf)

        Introduction  Nuclear winter is a term that … of a nuclear environmental catastrophe.

        Iran prolif leads to Israeli strikes
        Russell, French Institute for International Relations, 2009
        (James, senior lecturer for Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, "Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalatoin and Nuclear War in the Middle East", http://www.analyst-network.com/articles/141/StrategicStabilityReconsideredProspectsforEscalationandNuclearWarintheMiddleEast.pdf, accessed 06-22-11 AT)

        But if Israel’s nuclear policies on deterrence … principle for Israeli security strategy.39


09/23/11
  • West Point 1AC

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Plan Text

      Plan: The United States Federal Government should increase its democracy assistance for Yemen by establishing an International Counter Narcotics and Law Enforcement program for Yemen in order to support the rule of law.

      Contention One – Stability

      The US should permanently provide Yemen with INCLE funds to support the rule of law and establish a stable police force

      Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, 2011

      [Jeremy M., "Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations," Congressional Research Service, 6-8-11, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL34170.pdf, accessed 7-31-11, mtf]

      International Counter Narcotics and Law Enforcement … as appropriate, the criminal code.”

      INCLE key to support rule of law in Yemen through police, justice, and prison development programs

      INL, 2011

      [BUREAU OF INTERNATIONAL NARCOTICS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT AFFAIRS, "FY 2011 Program and Budget Guide: Near East," http://www.state.gov/p/inl/rls/rpt/pbg/fy2011/149372.htm, accessed 8-3-11, mtf]

      Yemen Budget Summary ($000)  … equipment donations. This is a new project.

      Police reform key to taking down Al-Qaeda

      Knoetgen, CEJISS columnist, 2011

      [Capt. Peter, Commanding Officer US Naval Forces Central Command, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, "Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil," 5-16-11, http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil, accessed 8-6-11, mtf]

      Within a diplomatic context, the US should …assistance and aggressive offensive action.

      Effective policing key internal link to solving terrorism – wins hearts and minds of people and provide long-term solvency

      Grono, Deputy President of International Crisis Group, 2011

      (Nick, Masters in Public Policy from Princeton, "Testimony to the Dutch Parliament on the Deployment of a Police Training Mission to Afghanistan," International Crisis Group is an NGO committed to preventing and resolving deadly conflict, 1-24-11, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/speeches/2011/testimony-to-dutch-parliament-afghanistan-police-mission.aspx, accessed 9-9-11, mtf)

      1. Good policing is critical to counter insurgency  … governance are all out of reach.

      AQAP will attack oil facilities in Saudi Arabia

      Ulrichsen, research fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science, 2011

      (Kristian Coates, deputy director of the Kuwait Programme on Development, Governance and Globalisation in the Gulf States, "The Geopolitics of Insecurity in the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula," Middle East Policy Vol. 18.2, Summer, p. 120–135, Wiley Online Library, accessed 10-10-11, mtf)

      The reconstitution of AQAP in January …regional stability in the Arabian Peninsula.9

      Attacks on Saudi oil facilities collapse the global economy

      Gartenstein-Ross, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 2011

      (Daveed, directs the Center for the Study of Terrorist Radicalization, "Osama's Oil Obsession," Foreign Policy, 5-23-11, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/05/23/osamas_oil_obsession, accessed 10-10-11, mtf)

      Bin Laden long believed that undermining …that they didn't think about."

      Saudi oil production is irreplaceable – affects every indicator of the economy

      Babej, Forbes marketing columnist, 2011

      (Marc E., co-founder of Reason inc., "A Saudi Oil Supply Disruption-The Ultimate Marketing Crisis Scenario," Forbes, 3-29-11, http://www.forbes.com/sites/marcbabej/2011/03/29/a-saudi-oil-supply-disruption-the-ultimate-marketing-crisis-scenario/, accessed 10-12-11, mtf)

      And still: in 2011, the term “unlikely” … products containing oil derivatives.

      AQAP will strike the Bab Al-Mandeb strait, taking out oil transportation in the region

      Watkins, Oil Diplomacy editor, 2010

      (Eric, "Al-Qaeda's new oil strategy," Oil and Gas Journal, 2-15-10, Factiva, accessed 10-5-11, mtf)

      The oil and gas industry has long heard … world's oil reserves are."

      No substitutes – the Bab el-Mandeb is a key oil chokepoint – instability causes oil shocks

      Roman, Editorial Assistant The Encyclopedia of Earth, 2008

      (Alejandra, former research assistant at BU Center for Energy and Environmental Studies; Cutler Cleveland Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment at Boston University; Tom Lawrence Public Service Associate with the University of Georgia and Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering at Purdue, "Bab el-Mandeb," Encyclopedia of Earth, 9-12-08, http://www.eoearth.org/article/Bab_el-Mandeb, accessed 10-5-11, mtf)

      The Bab el-Mandeb (Bab al-Mandab) strait … upward pressure on world oil prices.

      Oil shocks cause global economic collapse, great power wars, and intensified warming

      King, Center for a New American Security, 2008

      (Neil Jr., "Peak Oil: A Survey of Security Concerns," Center for a New American Security Energy Security Visionaries Series, July, http://www.aspousa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/_CNAS_King_Peak_Oil_WorkingPaper.pdf, accessed 10-12-11, mtf)

      Many commentators in the United States …blame for the country’s  travails.

      Global economic crisis causes war---strong statistical support 

      Royal, director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010

      (Jedediah, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal, and Political Perspectives, pg 213-215, ldg)

      Less intuitive is how periods of economic …be considered ancillary to those views.

      Contention Two – Saudi Arabia

      US-Saudi relations down now – plan solves

      Paikin, columnist for the Prince Arthur Herald, 2011

      (Zach, "Paikin: W(h)ither Yemen?," Canadian student news source, 7-7-11, http://princearthurherald.com/archives/5783, accessed 8-14-11, mtf)

      Yemen’s importance to American …Mubarak amid a popular uprising.

      US action in Yemen key to solidify Saudi relations and counter Iran

      Friedman, Chief Executive Officer and founder of Stratfor, 2011

      (George, Ph.D. in government from Cornell, "Iraq, Iran and the Next Move," Real Clear World is a global news source, 4-26-11, http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2011/04/26/iraq_iran_and_the_next_move_99494.html, accessed 8-14-11, mtf)

      As the United States leaves Iraq, … extreme risk for the United States.

      Iran is contending for preeminence and Saudi Arabia is the key roadblock

      Spindle and Coker, WSJ writers, 2011

      (Bill is the Middle East Bureau Chief at Dow Jones/WSJ; and Margaret is a Middle East Correspondent at WSJ, "The New Cold War," WSJ, 4-16-11, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704116404576262744106483816.html, accessed 8-19-11, mtf)

      For three months, the Arab world has been …to develop one of its own.

      Relations key to check Iran prolif and regional instability

      Global News Wire, 2011

      (Compilation database, Regulatory Intelligence Data, "GATES, SAUDI KING DISCUSS DEFENSE RELATIONSHIP," 4-6-11, lexis, accessed 8-17-11, mtf)

      Gates arrived here late this morning …of our key partners and stability in the region."

      Iran prolif leads to Middle East prolif and escalates into nuclear war

      Uchino, Kyoto University science professor, 2011

      (Yoshinari, "Iran’s Nuclear Program and U.S. Security Policy," Proceedings of The 1st International Symposium on Liberal Arts and General Education, 3-10-11, http://www.viz.media.kyoto-u.ac.jp/sympo2010/data/Paper_Collection.pdf#page=47, p. 42-53, accessed 8-14-11, mtf)

      If Iran goes nuclear, the relationship between … against nuclear-armed Iran.”[36]

      Iran will have nuclear weapons and intercontinental missiles by 2015 – has hegemonic intentions

      Uchino, Kyoto University science professor, 2011

      (Yoshinari, "Iran’s Nuclear Program and U.S. Security Policy," Proceedings of The 1st International Symposium on Liberal Arts and General Education, 3-10-11, http://www.viz.media.kyoto-u.ac.jp/sympo2010/data/Paper_Collection.pdf#page=47, p. 42-53, accessed 8-14-11, mtf)

      First, this section of this paper examines  …making deals over the nuclear  program.[23]

      Middle East prolif won’t lead to deterrence – miscalculation and multiple scenarios for exchange ensure extinction

      Russell, Research associate in Georgetown University’s institute for the study of diplomacy, 06

      [Richard L., September 1, 2006, Military Review, “Military Planning for a Middle East Stockpiled with Nuclear Weapons”, 8/21/11, ADS]

      How would the Middle East be affected …that exists in Pakistan today.

      Best studies show that even a small scale nuclear war would lead to nuclear winter, cause massive climate change, and result in extinction

      Robock, professor of climatology at Rutgers University, 2009

      (Alan, Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers and associate director of its Center for Environmental Prediction, "Nuclear winter," The Encyclopedia of Earth, 1-6-09, http://www.eoearth.org/article/Nuclear_winter, accessed 9-9-11, mtf)

      Introduction  Nuclear winter is a term …possibility of a nuclear environmental catastrophe.




11/04/11

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