EH 1AC
Advantage One: Piracy
Yemen instability fosters international terrorism and a rise in incidents of piracy
Rettig, Writer for U.S. News & World Report, 6-14-11
(Jessica, “Limited Options for United States in Yemen,” U.S. News & World Report, http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2011/06/14/limited-options-for-united-states-in-yemen)
Stability in Yemen. … rise to piracy.
Yemen instability spills-over to the entire region and resulting piracy would choke international energy flows
Makovsky, Misztal, and Ruhe, Analysts at the Bipartisan Policy Center, 11
(Michael, Blaise, and Jonathan, “Fragility and Extremism in Yemen,” January 2011,
http://www.bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Yemen%20Final%20Report.pdf)
Were the situation … and underserviced population.
Scenario One: Oil
Yemen sits by a world oil transit chokepoint
Makovsky, Misztal, and Ruhe, Analysts at the Bipartisan Policy Center, 11
(Michael, Blaise, and Jonathan, “Fragility and Extremism in Yemen,” January 2011,
http://www.bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Yemen%20Final%20Report.pdf)
Yemen occupies the … Europe and North America.
Unchecked supply shocks cause great-power nuclear war
Qasem, Pompeu University politics doctoral candidate, 2007
(Yasin, “The Coming Warfare of Oil Shortage”, 7-9, http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_islam_ya_070709_the_coming_warfare_o.htm, ldg)
Recognizing the strategic …interests are high.
Gulf supply shocks crush the global economy
Art, Brandeis IR professor, 2008
(Robert, “Selective Engagement After Bush”, June, online pdf, ldg)
Preserving assured access ...in the Gulf.
Global economic crisis causes war-strong statistical support
Royal, director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010
(Jedediah, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal, and Political Perspectives, pg 213-215, ldg)
Less intuitive is …to those views.
Scenario Two: Ocean Destruction
Political instability gives Al-Qaeda access to international sea lanes and harms maritime security
Benjamin, U.S. State Department Coordinator for Counter-Terrorism, 7-19-11
(Daniel, “U.S. Policy in Yemen,” Federal News Service, Congressional Testimony, p. lexis)
As a result …international sea lanes.
Maritime security key to prevent oceanic destruction
CSCAP, 2001 [Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific, Memorandum 5, February, www.cscap.org/uploads/docs/Memorandums/CSCAP%20Memorandum%20No%205%20%20Cooperation%20for%20Law%20and%20Order%20at%20Sea.pdf, accessed 11-19-10]
Good order at …under international agreements.
The impact is extinction
Craig, Indiana University School of Law associate law professor, 2003 [Robin Kundis, "Taking Steps Toward Marine Wilderness Protection? Fishing and Coral Reef Marine Reserves in Florida and Hawaii," McGeorge Law Review, 34 McGeorge L. Rev. 155, Winter, l/n]
The world's oceans … dollars per year, worldwide. 20
Advantage Two: Bioterrorism
Domestic instability is allowing Al Qaeda operatives in Yemen to plan mass causality terrorist attacks against the U.S.—especially bio-terror attacks involving ricin
Schmitt and Shanker, New York Times Reporters, 8-12-11
(Eric and Thom, “Qaeda Trying to Harness Toxin for Bombs, U.S. Officials Fear,” New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/13/world/middleeast/13terror.html?pagewanted=all)
American counterterrorism officials …scare some people? Yes.”
A bio-wep is the most likely method by terrorist – multiple reasons
Kortepeter, Cieslak and Eitzen, Chief, Education and Training Branch, Operational Medicine Department, 2001 (Mark, Theodore, and Edward, “Bioterrorism,” Journal of Environmental Health, Vol. 63, Iss. 6, CW, accessed on 7/21/10)
The intentional use …effects are recognized.
Bio attack guarantees extinction and outweighs nuclear war
Ochs, Chemical Weapons Working Group president, 6/9/02
[Richard, "Biological Weapons Must be Abolished Immediately,” google, mss]
While a "nuclear …IS NOW POSSIBLE.
Bioattack causes US to lash out – leading to extinction
Conley, 03 (Harry W., chief of the systems analysis Branch, Directorate of Requirements, Air and Space Power Journal- Spring 2003- http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj03/spr03/conley.html, CW, accessed on 8/15/10)
The number of …promises had been made.
Yemen AFF—Plan Text—1AC
The United States Federal Government should substantially increase its democracy assistance to the Yemeni democratic youth movement
Advantage Three: Solvency
Only U.S. recognition can provide the Yemeni youth movement with the legitimacy they need to leverage democratic reforms
Al-Shamahi, Editor of Comment Middle East, 7-7-11
(Abubark, “Where Next for Yemen? Perspectives on the Youth Movement,” http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Meetings/Meeting%20Transcripts/070711yemen.pdf)
I think to … see that happening.
U.S. assistance to the Yemeni democratic youth movement is vital to enhancing their power and influence—ensuring real domestic democratic reforms happen
Rettig, Writer for U.S. News & World Report, 6-14-11
(Jessica, “Limited Options for United States in Yemen,” U.S. News & World Report, http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2011/06/14/limited-options-for-united-states-in-yemen)
One way the …the status quo."
Strong Yemeni youth movement is key to ensuring a stable democratic transition
Root, Director of Mideast Reports, 8-16-11
(Tik, “Yemen's youth: the best hope for democracy,” http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/08/201181514211383535.html)
The Youth are …be considerably slimmer.
Their civil society fails arguments don't apply- NGOs are net positive for development
Tusalem, Arkansas State political science professor, 2007
(Rollin, “A Boon or a Bane? The Role of Civil Society in Third- and Fourth-Wave Democracies”, International Political Science Review 2007 28: 361, SAGE, ldg)
Numerous studies have …and institutional performance.
