Plan Text: The United States federal government should promote decentralization by increasing institutional capacity of local governments in Yemen.
Advantage 1 – Terrorism
Lack of governmental authority makes Yemen a safe haven for terrorism.
Hedberg, masters from Naval Postgraduate School, 2010
(Nicholas J., “The Exploitation Of A Weak State: Al-Qaeda In The Arabian Peninsula In Yeme”, June 2010, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA524655&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf, 8-14-2011, jag)
The dilemmas facing Yemen explored … in Yemen is likely to grow in the future.
Focusing on local governments is key – we need to increase their institutional capacity
Greenfield, Center for International Private Enterprise Program Officer, 2010
(Danya, “Sustainable Development is Possible in Yemen”, 2-17-2010, http://www.cipe.org/publications/fs/pdf/021610.pdf, 8-6-2011, jag)
Strategies to combat extremism cannot be viewed ….. future are clearly put into place.
Indepdently the plan, signals the US is on the side of the Yemeni people-that solves terrorism.
Green, The Washington Institute Soref fellow, 2011
(Daniel, “The American Moment in Yemen”, 4-18-2011, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/, 8-5-2011, jag)
The United States must dramatically …… to launch attacks against the United States.
Three scenarios
First is martime terrorism-Yemen is a key crossroads-terrorist will use it to disrupt global shipping.
Eshel, Maritime Security Asia, 2011
[David, "Unstable Yemen Becomes Al Qaeda’s New 'Islamic Emirate'," 7-27-11, http://maritimesecurity.asia/free-2/piracy-update/unstable-yemen-becomes-al-qaeda%E2%80%99s-new-%E2%80%9Cislamic-emirate%E2%80%9D/, accessed 8-3-11, mtf]
Yemen has been an active maritime terrorist …… already been affected by Somali pirates, skyrocketing.
They’ll specifically attack major ports
Goslin, international expert in security threat and risk assessment, 2008
[Charles, former CIA veteran operations officer, "MARITIME AND PORT SECURITY," 11-12-08, http://www.duostechnologies.com/DownloadCenter/WP-MaritimeAndPortSecurity.pdf, accessed 8-3-11, mtf]
VULNERABILTIES Ports and shipping remain …….. to lowtech sea borne attack, a la USS Cole).
That collapses the economy in 3 weeks
Flynn, Senior Fellow for Counterterrorism and National Security Studies, 2003
(Stephen E., “The Fragile state of container security”, March 20, 2003, http://www.cfr.org/defensehomeland-security/fragile-state-container-security/p5730, 8-29-2011, jag)
A year later I joined with former senators Warren Rudman and Gary ……movements that make up international trade.
Global economic crisis causes war-strong statistical support
Royal, director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010
(Jedediah, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal, and Political Perspectives, pg 213-215, ldg)
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline …….view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views.
Second, is the strait of Bab el Mandeb—they’ll attack it and cause oil shocks
Luft and Korin, Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, 2004
[Gal is the executive director and Anne is the director at IAGS, "Terrorism Goes to Sea," Foreign Affairs 83.64, Nov./Dec., p. 61-72, Hein Online, accessed 8-3-11, mtf]
Terrorist groups such as Hezbollah, Jemaah Islamiyah…… are tankers carrying Russian and Caspian oil.
Unchecked supply shocks cause great-power nuclear war
Qasem, Pompeu University politics doctoral candidate, 2007
(Yasin, “The Coming Warfare of Oil Shortage”, 7-9, http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_islam_ya_070709_the_coming_warfare_o.htm, ldg)
Recognizing the strategic value of oil for their …… of national interests are high.
Third is nuclear terrorism-Al Qaida is using Yemen as a basing ground to attack the US
Xinhua, 2011
["Could Al-Qaida Launch Attacks on U.S. from Yemen?," 5-18-11, Factiva, http://english.cri.cn/6966/2011/05/18/2321s638149.htm, accessed 8-2-11, mtf]
Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula …… underwear on a flight bound for Detroit.
They have multiple ways to acquire nukes
Bunn, Harvard, public policy professor, 2010
(Matthew, “Securing the Bomb 2010”, April, http://www.nti.org/e_research/Securing_The_Bomb_2010.pdf, ldg)
Repeated assessments by the U.S. …… an extraordinarily difficult challenge. 20
Statements and attempts prove motivation.
Bunn, Harvard, public policy professor, 2010
(Matthew, “Securing the Bomb 2010”, April, http://www.nti.org/e_research/Securing_The_Bomb_2010.pdf, ldg)
Complacency about the threat is perhaps ……that others will not do so in the future.
A nuclear strike by al Qaeda causes US-China-Russia war, environmental collapse, and extinction
Morgan, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, 2009
(Dennis, World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race Futures, Volume 41, Issue 10, December, ldg)
In a remarkable website on nuclear war, …… reckless use of strategic weapons
Advantage 2 – Stability
Yemen collapse is inevitable-corruption and ineffective governance is the cause
Clark, Bipartisan Policy Center Press Secretary, 2011
(Ashley, “Bipartisan Policy Center Calls on U.S. to Give Yemen Governance Assistance Not Just Military Aid”, 3-3-2011, http://www.bipartisanpolicy.org/news/press-releases/2011/03/bipartisan-policy-center-calls-us-give-yemen-governance-assistance-not-j, 8-6-2011, jag)
According to the new BPC case study, terrorists continue …..Saleh world. If he should fall, the future is wide open.”
The plan solves – decentralization through local governance is key
Juneau, Carleton University political science doctoral candidate, 2010
(Thomas, “Yemen: prospects for state failure-implications and remedies”, Fall 2010, http://go.galegroup.com/ps/i.do?&id=GALE%7CA238749342&v=2.1&u=vic_liberty&it=r&p=AONE&sw=w, 8-17-2011, jag)
Overall, the international community ……the development of civil society.
Democracy assistance solves transition wars and political stability
Savun and Tirone, University of Pittsburg Political Science assistant professor, 11
[Burcu, University of Pittsburg Political Science assistant professor, and Daniel, University of Pittsburgh political science Ph.D. Candidate, "Foreign Aid, Democratization, and Civil Conflict: How Does Democracy Aid Affect Civil Conflict?," American Journal of Political Science, Vol 55 Issue 2, p233-246, April 2011, Wiley Online Library, accessed 5-16-11, mss]
It has been suggested that democratizing …… and projecting avenues for future research.
Decentralization creates stability
O’Mahony, Senior Development Specialist for Decentralization, 2006
(Patrick, “Assessing The Merits Of Decentralization As A Conflict Mitigation Strategy”, October 2006, online pdf, 8-29-2011, jag)
Greater popular participation and a belief that ….. tensions can be proactively redressed.
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Yemen instability-causes Saudi Arabia-Iran proxy war.
Dobriansky et al., former undersecretary of state, 2011
(Paula, “FRAGILITY AND EXTREMISM IN YEMEN”, http://www.bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Yemen%20Fragility%20and%20Extremism.pdf, ldg
The severity of problems in Yemen—….. and underserviced population.
Saudi Arabia and Iran are in a cold war-tensions escalate to a shooting war.
Spindle et al., The National Business editor, 2011
(Bill, “The New Cold War”, 4-16, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704116404576262744106483816.html, ldg)
But comparison to the short-lived flowering of …..nuclear arms race in the region.
Middle East war goes nuclear
Russell, Naval Postgraduate School National Security professor, 2009
(James, "Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Nuclear War and Escalation in the Middle East", http://www.nps.edu/academics/sigs/ccc/people/biolinks/russell/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf, ldg)
Strategic stability in the …..substantial risk for the entire world.
