Thus the plan: The United States Federal Government should provide substantial aid to the National Council of Yemen for the removal of President Saleh.

The democratic transition in Yemen has stalled and Saleh is planning on passing power to his son
Spencer, Middle East Strategic Analyst for The London Guardian, 8-29-11
(James, “How Yemen’s Revolution was Thwarted,” The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/aug/29/yemen-revolution-saleh-arab-spring)
While the world focuses on events in Libya… the political elite discovering self-interested altruism.

U.S. is the balancer in Mid-East region
Wehrey and Kaye, RAND Cooperation researchers, 10
(Frederic and Dalia, “The Iraq Effect: The Middle East after the Iraq War,” RAND Project Air Force, http://www.scribd.com/doc/57563528/12/Perceptions-of-Eroding-U-S-Credibility, accessed 9-6-11, tlr)

The Iraq War also raised questions in the … heavyweight in regional security. 

Assisting Yemen democracy solves US credibility
Ragahavan, Canberra Times, 2011
[Sudarsan, Australian newspaper, “Thousands take to the streets; Leaders struggle to deal with uprisings,” 2-19-11, lexis, accessed 8-2-11, mtf]

Autocrats and monarchs across the …stepped up pressure for radical change.

US Cred stops nuclear prolif in Mid-East
McInnis, coordinator of Project on Nuclear Issues, 05
(Kathleen J, “Extended Deterrence: US Credibility Gap in the Middle East,” The Washington Quarterly, http://www.twq.com/05summer/docs/05summer_mcinnis.pdf, accessed 9-7-11, tlr)

Taking into consideration the potential … in these countries because of their stability.

Proliferation leads to accidental or unauthorized launch
Busch, Associate Professor of Government, 2004
(Nathan E, Christopher Newport University, No End In Sight: The Continuing Menace of Proliferation, Page 10)asa

Moreover, a rapid development of … and aspiring nuclear weapons states.

Accidental launch causes full-scale nuclear escalation and the death of billions
Forrow ‘98
( Lachlan, (et. al Harvard Medical) THE NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, April 30, 1998, p. http://www.nejm.org/public/1998/0338/0018/1326/5.htm# ) gh

Public health professionals now …. indirect casualties worldwide.  

Iran’s use of nukes is dependent on perception of U.S.
Davis and Martini, 11
(Lynn E. and Jeffery, “Iran’s Nuclear Future: Critical U.S. Policy Choices” Rand Project Air Force http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=jiqgyCyWEYUC&oi=fnd&pg=PT1&dq=US+Credibility+AND+Yemen&ots=gpLeFBIYah&sig=AgJcWNhxGXGJArUAn2G8QwxJxcE#v=onepage&q&f=false, accessed 9-7-11, tlr)

The United States will face critical policy … a potential lever of influence.

Iran nuclearization causes rapid arms race culminating in nuclear war
Cirincione Assoc. & Director @ the Non-Proliferation Project @ the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2006 (Joseph, Summer, SAIS Review, “A New Non-Proliferation Strategy” proquest, ldg) 

The danger posed by the acquisition of nuclear …. territorial disputes still unresolved.

Nuclear war guarantees extinction- studies prove there will be massive casualties, famine and nuclear winter
Denver Post, 3-25-07 ("U.S. approach to nukes misguided," l/n)

The scientists' perspective is …. for several years."

Domestic instability is allowing Al Qaeda operatives in Yemen to plan mass causality terrorist attacks against the U.S.—especially bio-terror attacks involving ricin
Schmitt and Shanker, New York Times Reporters, 8-12-11
(Eric and Thom, “Qaeda Trying to Harness Toxin for Bombs, U.S. Officials Fear,” New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/13/world/middleeast/13terror.html?pagewanted=all)
American counterterrorism …. is it going to scare some people? Yes.”
Bioterrorism has exponential effects- U.S. not prepared
Matheny, MBA, MPH health economist, 2007
(James G., “Reducing the Risk of Human Extinction”, Center for Biosecurity of UPMC, http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/website/resources/publications/2007/2007-10-15-reducingrisk.html, kca)

“Of current extinction risks, … worth the risks.”

Disease pandemics cause societal disintegration
Cook, 09 (Robin, “Plague: A new thriller of the coming pandemic,” Foreign Policy, November 2009, p. EBSCO) 

At that point, the story moves …worldwide infectious holocaust.

Domestic bioterror attack causes US nuclear lashout
Conley, ACC chief of Systems Analysis Branch, 2003
(Harry, “Not with Impunity Assessing US Policy for Retaliating to a Chemical or Biological Attack”, 3-5, http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj03/spr03/conley.html, ldg)

The number of American casualties …., whatever promises had been made.”48 

AQAP is still a serious threat, despite the death of a leader
AFP, 2011
(October 3, “AFP: Al-Qaeda in Yemen remains serious threat: experts”, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5glQumhv4YAo-CT1vb4ydMPbm4oow?docId=CNG.c5032e99f12554c27d6870277cc274ab.571, kca)

“Al-Qaeda in Yemen remains …. nor a bomb-maker.”

Yemen is the focal point of piracy- lack of a stable transition allows pirates to take over Socotra, which is a key base for Gulf of Aden control-
Assl 7-8-11
(Nima Khorrami Assl, security analyst at Transnational Crisis Project, London. His areas of interest and expertise include the Middle East, Political Islam and De-radicalisation, China, Caucuses, Energy Security and Geopolitics, “The Out of Towner,” http://www.al-majalla.com/en/Blogs/The_Out_of_Towner/article468603.ece?service=print, CW, accessed on 9/28/11) 

That the current instability in Yemen ….in Yemen is so puzzling.  

Yemen is the last straw of regional shipping insecurity
BMI 3-23-11
(Business Monitor International, “Yemen Crisis: The Issues At Stake,” http://www.riskwatchdog.com/2011/03/23/yemen-crisis-the-issues-at-stake/, CW, accessed on 9/28/11)  

Global shipping route: Much of Asia-Europe trade passes through the Mediterranean, the Suez Canal and Red Sea, and the Indian Ocean via the Gulf of Aden. Yemen’s adjacency to the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden means that any chaos in the country could further boost piracy in the surrounding waters, which has surged as a result of lawlessness in nearby Somalia. If both shores of the Bab el-Mandeb strait were to be plagued by lawlessness, shipping insurance costs would probably increase.  The stakes are high. 

Unchecked piracy in the Gulf of Aden threatens Armageddon- disrupts global trade, economic stability, causes extremism and international conflict
Hagilonian Investment ‘10
(Limited liability company, “Danger on the High Seas,” http://www.eadestination.com/danger-on-the-high-seas, CW, accessed on 9/28/11) 

In the last decade piracy off the east …inflict on the world economy.  

Global trade sustainability solves great power wars and collapse leads to more of them- empirical research is on our side
Hillebrand ‘10
(Evan E., Senior Economist for the Central Intelligence Agency and Professor of Diplomacy at the University of Kentucky, Deglobalization Scenarios: Who Wins? Who Loses?, Global Economy Journal, Volume 10, Issue 2, CW, accessed on 9/28/11) 

A long line of writers …. for interstate war rises. 

They will go nuclear
Friedberg and Schoenfeld ‘08
(Aaron, Professor of politics and international relations @ Princeton University & Visiting scholar @ Witherspoon Institute [AARON FRIEDBERG and GABRIEL SCHOENFELD, ?The Dangers of a Diminished America: In the 1930s, isolationism and protectionism spurred the rise of fascism.?, Wall Street Journal, ?The Dangers of a Diminished America?, OCTOBER 21, 2008, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122455074012352571.html, CW, accessed on 9/28/11) 

In such a scenario there … to rise to an occasion as grave as the one we now face.  

Unchecked instability and piracy in Yemen risks militarization of the region- risks great power conflicts
Gundun 7-7-11
(James Gundun is a political scientist and counterinsurgency analyst, editor of The Trench, and member of Octopus Mountain. The Trench proliferates foreign policy information, providing quick reaction and deep analysis to the latest conflicts, “US-Chinese Hegemony Chokes Yemen’s Revolution,” http://hadalzone.blogspot.com/2011/07/us-chinese-hegemony-chokes-yemens.html, CW, accessed on 9/28/11)  

Although America hasn’t learned … to exploit it internationally. 

Yemen stability key to solve piracy and maritime conflict
Pikulsky, Washington College Research Assistant, 2011
(Ted, "What happens when Yemen runs out of oil?," 7-13-11, http://inssblog.wordpress.com/2011/07/13/what-happens-when-yemen-runs-out-of-oil/, accessed 7-30-11, mtf)

Since the January protests calling for …. the increased danger to maritime activity.

Support of National Council is key to removal of Saleh
Al-Haj, reporter for Huffington Post, 11
(Ahmed, “Yemeni Opposition Groups Protest Leaders form National Council,” Huffington Post, August 17, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/17/yemen-opposition-national-council-_n_929503.html, accessed 9-10-11, tlr)

Yemeni opposition groups …. from the June attack.

US key to fall of Saleh
New York Times, 2011
(June 18, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/19/opinion/19karman.html?pagewanted=all, kca)
“Following months of peaceful …committed by their local partners.”
Immediate fall of Saleh ensures smoother transition
Alley, Senior Arabian Peninsula Analyst at ICG, 11
(April Longley, ICG: International Crisis Group, “Will Saleh’s Resignation Lead to Democratic Reform?” Foreign Affairs, April 4, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67699/april-longley-alley/yemen-on-the-brink, accessed 9-11-11, tlr)

If Yemen’s political elites …. death toll continues to rise.

U.S. should encourage peaceful transition- solves terrorism, Saudi relations, and Iranian threat
Phillips, Middle Eastern Affairs Senior Research Fellow, 11
(James, “Yemen: U.S. Policy Implications of President Saleh’s Resignation Offer,” The Heritage Foundation, April 25, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/04/yemen-us-policy-implications-of-president-salehs-resignation-offer, accessed 9-10-11, tlr)

To help stabilize Yemen and …. halt Yemen’s slide into chaos.

U.S. assistance to domestic opposition groups paves the way for democratic reforms and reduces the appeal of violent extremists
Foust, American Security Project Fellow, 3-3-11
(Joshua, “How the U.S. can best help Yemen,” http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/03/how-the-us-can-best-help-yemen/71960/) 

But we're not as reliant on ….an urgent security priority.

Plan: The United States Federal Government should provide all necessary democracy support that is requested by the Syrian National Council of opposition groups, barring military assistance

US Intervention

Violence in Syria escalating – opposition is militarizing

Rabil 1-3

[Robert G, associate professor of political science at Florida Atlantic University, “Why U.S. must step carefully in Syria,” January 3, 2012, http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/03/opinion/rabil-syria/index.html] ara

As it fights for its survival ……including those within the ranks of the Syrian opposition.

Delays to aid opposition are eroding credibility and causes prolif

Gordon 8-20-11

[J.D. is a communications consultant to several Washington-D.C. think tanks and a retired Navy Commander who served as a Pentagon spokesman in the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 2005-2009. “Libya, Syria Show Obama in Way Over His Head” August 20, 2011, http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/08/20/libya-syria-show-obama-in-way-over-his-head/#ixzz1Vgk2QcQB] ara

With Syria, Mr. Obama finally called for strongman President Bashar Al-Assad to step down …… regimes to build up their own military arsenals.

Status Quo inaction will inevitably lead to US military intervention

Dreyfuss 11

[Robert, Award winning independent journalist & Contributing Editor to the Nation, The Nation, “Applying the Libya 'Model' to Syria and Iran,” August 29, 2011, http://www.thenation.com/blog/163013/applying-libya-model-syria-and-iran?page=full] ara

Muammar Qaddafi is (pretty much) gone, and right on cue …… the United States cannot allow Syrians, or Iranians, to be massacred.

US military intervention ensures Israel is drawn in, collapses US leadership.

Zakheim 11

[Dov, former Undersecretary of Defense, The National Interest, “The Nightmare that is a U.S. Attack On Syria,” ,May 12, 2011, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-nightmare-us-attack-syria-5296]

But the price of yet another American military operation …… in a defense budget that many perceive to be out of control.

US leadership stops conflict in every region, keeps trade moving, stops terrorists, and prolif

Kagan 11

[Robert, contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, “The Price of Power”, January 24, 2011, Vol. 16, No. 18, http://www.weeklystandard.com/print/articles/price-power_533696.html] ara

Today the international situation is also one of high risk. …… Iranian influence or build their own nuclear weapons to resist it.

A collapse in US hegemony would lead to global economic collapse, unchecked terrorism, nuclear wars, apolarity, and a new Dark Age

Ferguson, July/August, 2004

(Niall, Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard, Senior Research Fellow of Jesus College (Oxford), Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution (Stanford), "A World Without Power," Foreign Policy Issue 143, Ebsco)

So what is left? Waning empires. …….. great powers would benefit from such a not-so-new world disorder

Proxy War

Lack of credible U.S. action is emboldening Iran to expand throughout the region – only perception of U.S. regional influence checks expansionism

Zuckerman, 10

(Mortimer, publisher and owner of the New York Daily News, 6/25/10, “3 Steps to Stop Iran From Getting a Nuclear Bomb” http://politics.usnews.com/opinion/mzuckerman/articles/2010/06/25/3-steps-to-stop-iran-from-getting-a-nuclear-bomb.html) ara

As far as the war we're fighting in Afghanistan ….Iran over three Gulf islands belonging to the UAE.

Lack of security guarantees leads Saudis to host Pakistan nucs

Guzansky, Institute for National Security Studies, ’11

[Yoel, research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. He joined INSS after serving at Israel's National Security Council, “Tehran tests Saudis’ nerve on nuclear weapons,” 7-1, The Australian, http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/tehran-tests-saudis-nerve-on-nuclear-weapons/story-e6frg6ux-1226085108555, Gender Modified] ara

UNTIL recently it appeared that US security guarantees … that it is in fact exempt from intrusive International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring.

South-Asian nuclear instability would result.

Roberts, History Prof, Cambridge, ’11

[Andrew, Also: Royal Society of Literature Fellow, Jan. 2, “Iran’s Nuclear Domino Effect,” THE DAILY BEAST, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/01/02/irans-nuclear-weapons-could-lead-to-a-saudi-and-pakistan-alliance.html] ara

Where Edelman goes an important stage ….nuclear situation in South Asia significantly more dangerous.

That causes extinction- nuclear winter, ozone, climate, and ag decline

Richard, Discovery Green editor, 2010

[Michael Graham, "Nuclear Winter: Now Easier to Trigger than Ever," 1-19-10, www.treehugger.com/files/2010/01/nuclear-winter-easier-to-trigger-than-previously-thought-study.php, accessed 12-19-10, mss]

Regional Nuclear War Could Trigger a 10-Year Nuclear Winter …. even if by only a few percents (any difference in such a high impact event has a very high expected utility).

Turkey

Syrian violence causes mass refugee flows into Turkey – tensions could erupt into violence at any time – conflict will draw NATO, Iran, Russia and China into World War III.

Pakalert 11

[Pakalert Press, June 28, 2011 “Could We Actually See A War Between Syria And Turkey?”
http://www.pakalertpress.com/2011/06/28/could-we-actually-see-a-war-between-syria-and-turkey/] ara

In recent days….. When it does, let us just hope that World War III does not erupt as a result.

Syria-Turkey conflict on the brink

Kim 12-13

Kyle, Global Post, “Violence intensifies near Syria-Turkey border,” December 13, 2011, http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/middle-east/111213/violence-intensifies-near-syria-turkey-border

The Free Syrian Army military …. "No one can build a future over the blood of the oppressed."

Middle East war goes nuclear

Shibil Sidiqqi, Fellow, Centre for the Study of Global Power and Politics, 4-15-10

[Shibil, Fellow, Centre for the Study of Global Power and Politics, “Terrorism: The nuclear summit's 'straw man',” http://98.130.246.96/archive_articles_details.asp?articleid=1055&typeid=3] ara

However, the president's assessment …..- that clearly remains the largest global nuclear threat. 

Solvency

U.S. assistance to Syria builds civil society – its key to avoid civil war and regional hegemons interference.

Al-Assad 8/10 

[Ribal, Director of the Organization for Democracy and Freedom in Syria, “The struggle for Syria,” August 10, 2011. CNN’s Global Public Square Blog. http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/10/the-struggle-for-syria/] ara

As the violence in Syria mounts, … but would be a force for stability throughout the region.

U.S. action now is critical to stop Syria from devolving into a civil war

Abrams 8/2

Elliott Abrams, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, handled Middle East affairs at the National Security Council from 2001 to 2009. “Preventing Civil War in Syria”. August 2, 2011. The Wall Street Journal. http://www.cfr.org/syria/preventing-civil-war-syria/p25576

Syria remains rocked by antiregime protests ….. Assad family and its closest cronies from the rest of the Alawite community.

Spurs outside action and transforms US policy—spills over to further anti-Assad actions

Tony Badran, Obama Can Stop the Killing in Syria The United States has leverage with the murderous Bashar al-Assad; it has simply chosen not to use it. | JUNE 14, 2011http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/06/14/obama_can_stop_the_killing_in_syria?page=0,2

The administration could then induce other regional allies …. them with an opportunity to put it on display. So what are they waiting for?

The U.S. is uniquely key – Obama’s heritage gives him power to promote democracy other agents can’t access

Gerecht and Dubowitz 11

[Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former CIA officer, is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the author of “The Wave: Man, God, and the Ballot Box in the Middle East.” Mark Dubowitz is the executive director of FDD, where he heads projects on sanctions and the use of technology to encourage democratic change. “Obama, American Liberator?” September 1, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/obama-american liberator/2011/09/01/gIQA3e5HvJ_story.html] ara

Libya was not a robust showing ….. It may do the same for Barack Obama.

Assad will fall  - only question is how the U.S. can shape the transition and post-Assad government.

Kessler and Doran 8/16

Oren Kessler and Michael S. Doran, visiting professor at the Robert F. Wagner Graduate School for Public Service at New York University, Ph.D. in History, Princeton University, An expert on the international politics of the Middle East. “'Iran, not peace process, should drive US policy on Syria'”. Jerusalem Post. 8/16/2011. http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=234031

“The result is that we have fallen short ….United States should be working assiduously to convince Assad to go, and to go soon.”

And US should set up a political alternative that protects minorities – key to Assad collapse

Al Toraifi 11,

[Adel, Al Arabiya, Editor-in-Chief of Al Majalla, the leading Arab magazine, specialist on Saudi foreign policy, PhD candidate at the London School of Economics and Political Science “Adel Al Toraifi: Syria on the road of chaos,” August 12, 2011, http://english.alarabiya.net/views/2011/08/12/161931.html] ara

If the international community is concerned …..in the eyes of the [Baathist] party and sectarian [elements]. 

Only the U.S. can assist the Syrian transition – the plan will build leverage over time.

Young 11

[Michael, Opinion Page Editor, Lebanon Daily Star,“An Obama road map to change in Syria,” 5-19-11, Lebanon Daily Star, http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Columnist/2011/May-19/An-Obama-road-map-to-change-in-Syria.ashx#axzz1hsWqY7M5] ara

We’ve heard Obama administration ….. only the United States can take such measures.

Syrian National Council overwhelmingly supports foreign intervention

Sen 1-6

[Ashish Kumar, Washington Times, “Syrian opposition row over foreign military action nixes unity effort,” January 6, 2012, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/jan/6/syrian-opposition-row-over-foreign-military-action/?page=1] ara

Efforts by the U.S. and the Arab League ….. said George Jabboure Netto, an Syrian National Council member.

Opposition will remain divided until US steps in

Danin 1-22

[Robert M., Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, former Director for the Levant and Israeli-Palestinian Affairs at the National Security Council, How to Help Syria Without Intervening Militarily,” January 22, 2012, http://www.cfr.org/syria/help-syria-without-intervening-militarily/p27150] ara

Provide greater support and deploy a senior American official ….. able diplomat Chris Stevens was assigned to work with the Libyan opposition in Benghazi.