Plan Text

Plan: The United States Federal Government should increase its democracy assistance for Yemen by establishing an International Counter Narcotics and Law Enforcement program for Yemen in order to support the rule of law.

Contention One – Stability

The US should permanently provide Yemen with INCLE funds to support the rule of law and establish a stable police force

Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, 2011

[Jeremy M., "Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations," Congressional Research Service, 6-8-11, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL34170.pdf, accessed 7-31-11, mtf]

International Counter Narcotics and Law Enforcement … as appropriate, the criminal code.”

INCLE key to support rule of law in Yemen through police, justice, and prison development programs

INL, 2011

[BUREAU OF INTERNATIONAL NARCOTICS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT AFFAIRS, "FY 2011 Program and Budget Guide: Near East," http://www.state.gov/p/inl/rls/rpt/pbg/fy2011/149372.htm, accessed 8-3-11, mtf]

Yemen Budget Summary ($000)  … equipment donations. This is a new project.

Police reform key to taking down Al-Qaeda

Knoetgen, CEJISS columnist, 2011

[Capt. Peter, Commanding Officer US Naval Forces Central Command, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, "Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil," 5-16-11, http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil, accessed 8-6-11, mtf]

Within a diplomatic context, the US should …assistance and aggressive offensive action.

Effective policing key internal link to solving terrorism – wins hearts and minds of people and provide long-term solvency

Grono, Deputy President of International Crisis Group, 2011

(Nick, Masters in Public Policy from Princeton, "Testimony to the Dutch Parliament on the Deployment of a Police Training Mission to Afghanistan," International Crisis Group is an NGO committed to preventing and resolving deadly conflict, 1-24-11, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/speeches/2011/testimony-to-dutch-parliament-afghanistan-police-mission.aspx, accessed 9-9-11, mtf)

1. Good policing is critical to counter insurgency  … governance are all out of reach.

AQAP will attack oil facilities in Saudi Arabia

Ulrichsen, research fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science, 2011

(Kristian Coates, deputy director of the Kuwait Programme on Development, Governance and Globalisation in the Gulf States, "The Geopolitics of Insecurity in the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula," Middle East Policy Vol. 18.2, Summer, p. 120–135, Wiley Online Library, accessed 10-10-11, mtf)

The reconstitution of AQAP in January …regional stability in the Arabian Peninsula.9

Attacks on Saudi oil facilities collapse the global economy

Gartenstein-Ross, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 2011

(Daveed, directs the Center for the Study of Terrorist Radicalization, "Osama's Oil Obsession," Foreign Policy, 5-23-11, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/05/23/osamas_oil_obsession, accessed 10-10-11, mtf)

Bin Laden long believed that undermining …that they didn't think about."

Saudi oil production is irreplaceable – affects every indicator of the economy

Babej, Forbes marketing columnist, 2011

(Marc E., co-founder of Reason inc., "A Saudi Oil Supply Disruption-The Ultimate Marketing Crisis Scenario," Forbes, 3-29-11, http://www.forbes.com/sites/marcbabej/2011/03/29/a-saudi-oil-supply-disruption-the-ultimate-marketing-crisis-scenario/, accessed 10-12-11, mtf)

And still: in 2011, the term “unlikely” … products containing oil derivatives.

AQAP will strike the Bab Al-Mandeb strait, taking out oil transportation in the region

Watkins, Oil Diplomacy editor, 2010

(Eric, "Al-Qaeda's new oil strategy," Oil and Gas Journal, 2-15-10, Factiva, accessed 10-5-11, mtf)

The oil and gas industry has long heard … world's oil reserves are."

No substitutes – the Bab el-Mandeb is a key oil chokepoint – instability causes oil shocks

Roman, Editorial Assistant The Encyclopedia of Earth, 2008

(Alejandra, former research assistant at BU Center for Energy and Environmental Studies; Cutler Cleveland Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment at Boston University; Tom Lawrence Public Service Associate with the University of Georgia and Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering at Purdue, "Bab el-Mandeb," Encyclopedia of Earth, 9-12-08, http://www.eoearth.org/article/Bab_el-Mandeb, accessed 10-5-11, mtf)

The Bab el-Mandeb (Bab al-Mandab) strait … upward pressure on world oil prices.

Oil shocks cause global economic collapse, great power wars, and intensified warming

King, Center for a New American Security, 2008

(Neil Jr., "Peak Oil: A Survey of Security Concerns," Center for a New American Security Energy Security Visionaries Series, July, http://www.aspousa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/_CNAS_King_Peak_Oil_WorkingPaper.pdf, accessed 10-12-11, mtf)

Many commentators in the United States …blame for the country’s  travails.

Global economic crisis causes war---strong statistical support

Royal, director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010

(Jedediah, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal, and Political Perspectives, pg 213-215, ldg)

Less intuitive is how periods of economic …be considered ancillary to those views.

Contention Two – Saudi Arabia

US-Saudi relations down now – plan solves

Paikin, columnist for the Prince Arthur Herald, 2011

(Zach, "Paikin: W(h)ither Yemen?," Canadian student news source, 7-7-11, http://princearthurherald.com/archives/5783, accessed 8-14-11, mtf)

Yemen’s importance to American …Mubarak amid a popular uprising.

US action in Yemen key to solidify Saudi relations and counter Iran

Friedman, Chief Executive Officer and founder of Stratfor, 2011

(George, Ph.D. in government from Cornell, "Iraq, Iran and the Next Move," Real Clear World is a global news source, 4-26-11, http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2011/04/26/iraq_iran_and_the_next_move_99494.html, accessed 8-14-11, mtf)

As the United States leaves Iraq, … extreme risk for the United States.

Iran is contending for preeminence and Saudi Arabia is the key roadblock

Spindle and Coker, WSJ writers, 2011

(Bill is the Middle East Bureau Chief at Dow Jones/WSJ; and Margaret is a Middle East Correspondent at WSJ, "The New Cold War," WSJ, 4-16-11, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704116404576262744106483816.html, accessed 8-19-11, mtf)

For three months, the Arab world has been …to develop one of its own.

Relations key to check Iran prolif and regional instability

Global News Wire, 2011

(Compilation database, Regulatory Intelligence Data, "GATES, SAUDI KING DISCUSS DEFENSE RELATIONSHIP," 4-6-11, lexis, accessed 8-17-11, mtf)

Gates arrived here late this morning …of our key partners and stability in the region."

Iran prolif leads to Middle East prolif and escalates into nuclear war

Uchino, Kyoto University science professor, 2011

(Yoshinari, "Iran’s Nuclear Program and U.S. Security Policy," Proceedings of The 1st International Symposium on Liberal Arts and General Education, 3-10-11, http://www.viz.media.kyoto-u.ac.jp/sympo2010/data/Paper_Collection.pdf#page=47, p. 42-53, accessed 8-14-11, mtf)

If Iran goes nuclear, the relationship between … against nuclear-armed Iran.”[36]

Iran will have nuclear weapons and intercontinental missiles by 2015 – has hegemonic intentions

Uchino, Kyoto University science professor, 2011

(Yoshinari, "Iran’s Nuclear Program and U.S. Security Policy," Proceedings of The 1st International Symposium on Liberal Arts and General Education, 3-10-11, http://www.viz.media.kyoto-u.ac.jp/sympo2010/data/Paper_Collection.pdf#page=47, p. 42-53, accessed 8-14-11, mtf)

First, this section of this paper examines  …making deals over the nuclear  program.[23]

Middle East prolif won’t lead to deterrence – miscalculation and multiple scenarios for exchange ensure extinction

Russell, Research associate in Georgetown University’s institute for the study of diplomacy, 06

[Richard L., September 1, 2006, Military Review, “Military Planning for a Middle East Stockpiled with Nuclear Weapons”, 8/21/11, ADS]

How would the Middle East be affected …that exists in Pakistan today.

Best studies show that even a small scale nuclear war would lead to nuclear winter, cause massive climate change, and result in extinction

Robock, professor of climatology at Rutgers University, 2009

(Alan, Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers and associate director of its Center for Environmental Prediction, "Nuclear winter," The Encyclopedia of Earth, 1-6-09, http://www.eoearth.org/article/Nuclear_winter, accessed 9-9-11, mtf)

Introduction  Nuclear winter is a term …possibility of a nuclear environmental catastrophe.

yria AEmail me at mark.febrizio@gmail.com if something isn't up here.

1. Perm do the plan and the counterplan

EU credibility would suffer without cooperation with the US – US isolationism spurs perceptions of international inconsistency

Ghez, research fellow at RAND Europe, 2011

[Jeremy Ghez is a Paris-based research fellow at RAND Europe and graduate of the Pardee RAND Graduate School, he is also an affiliate professor of economics and international affairs at HEC Paris. “Redefining the Transatlantic Relationship—Europe's Paradoxical Pacifism,” 8-1-11, http://www.rand.org/commentary/2011/08/01/TE.html]jap

The euphoria with which the United … crisis it is currently going through.

3. No solvency- implementation

Bicchi, LSE international relations of Europe lecturer, 10

[Federica, Ph.D., London School of Economics and Political Science, former Centre for the Analysis of Political Change fellow, “Dilemmas of Implementation: EU Democracy Assistance in the Mediterranean,” Democratization, 17:5, Oct 2010, p976-996, accessed 5-25-11, mss]

The article shows how and why, …relation to it, in various and divergent ways.

4. No solvency- delay

Youngs, FRIDE director and University of Warwick associate professor, 8

[Richard, “Is European democracy promotion on the wane?” CEPS Working Document No. 292, May 2008, http://www.ceps.eu/book/european-democracy-promotion-wane, accessed 7-28-11, mss]

Democracy assistance  With punitive measures limited …capacity-building in Afghanistan).14

6. Yemen wants the US – previous US programs establish better credentials than EU

Burke, researcher at FRIDE, 2010

[Edward, FRIDE is a European think tank for global action, "Assessing Democracy Assistance: Yemen," May, http://www.fride.org/download/IP_WMD_Yemen_ENG_jul10.pdf, accessed 8-8-11, mtf]

Among NGOs, the US is regarded …in Yemen than European donors.

8. EU not any better- no democracy cred

Kucharczyk and Lovitt, PASOS executive director, 8

[Jacek, Institute of Public Affairs (Poland) research director, and Jeff, PASOS (Policy Association for an Open Society) is a network of 36 independent think-tanks spanning 23 countries in Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia engaged in issues around democratic transition, Democracy’s New Champions: European Democracy Assistance after EU Enlargement, ed. by Jacek Kucharczyk and Jeff Lovitt, 2008, “Re-energising Europe to Champion Democracy: The Visegrad Four bring fresh transition experience to the donors’ side of the table,” 19, mss]

Europe’s track record in democracy … in democracy promotion in the South.

9. Turn- one-shot deal democracy assistance collapses soft power

Burnell, University of Warwick politics and international studies professor, 7

[Peter, Ph.D. in politics from the University of Warwick, “Relations between state, civil society and private sector,” in Democracy: Europe’s Core Value?, ed. by Marieke van Doorn and Roel von Meijenfeldt, 2007, 22, mss]

So, Europe can choose to be …closely with party political life.

10. EU can’t solve global problems- disunity and lack of key assets- Libya proves

Bandow, Cato Institute senior fellow, 11

[Doug, "Libya's Lesson for Europe," The American Spectator, 3-16-2011, spectator.org/archives/2011/03/16/libyas-lesson-for-europe#, accessed 7-28-11, mss]

After the Arab League urged creation …the latter starts acting like one.

11. Strong EU destroys US heg

Baker, Financial Times associate editor, 3

[Gerdard "Against United Europe," 9-22-2003, cafe387.daum.net/_c21_/bbs_search_read?grpid=d3NY&fldid=DG3F&contentval=00015zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz&nenc=5vE-uCZN7kYD3_UPdNNHHw00&fenc=TamBK3he-mk0?docid=d3NY|DG3F|47|20030910104750&q=cnn1113&nil_profile=cafetop&nil_menu=sch_updw, accessed 7-29-11, mss]

There is a powerful dynamic … in Latin America or Africa.

Heg prevents catastrophic global nuclear wars

White, ANU strategic studies professor, 2008

[Hugh, Australian National University, Lowy Institute for International Policy visiting fellow, former (Australian) Office of National Assessments intelligence analyst and senior advisor to the Defense minister, "Why War in Asia Remains Thinkable," Survival, informaworld.com, mss]

Finally, the fourth model is the …which major war is more likely.

Contention Two – Energy

We’re on the brink of a major LNG crisis

Research and Markets, 2011

(LNGReports, "Global LNG Market Short and Long Term Outlook: Trends, Drivers and Forecasts of Supply, Demand, Capacity, Trade and Contracts to 2020," December, http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/7894c7/global_lng_market, accessed 1-13-12, mtf)

LNGReports new report on “Global …merger and acquisition decisions.

Instability in Yemen threatens to cut off LNG production

McAllister, Reuters, 2011

(Edward, “UPDATE 4-Yemen unrest may hit LNG export, no impact yet-Total,” 3-22-11, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/22/lng-yemen-unrest-idUSN2215973720110322, accessed 1-13-12, mtf)

Widespread civil unrest in Yemen may … after grenade attacks on the line last year.

Yemen sits at a key LNG access point in the Indian Ocean

Total, 2011

[French multinational oil company and one of the six "Supermajor" oil companies in the world, “Yemen LNG, driving the country’s development,” http://www.total.com/en/our-energies/natural-gas-/processing/projects-and-achievements/yemen-lng-940894.html, accessed 1-13-12, mtf)

A strategically important project … one-sixth of our oil and gas sales.

Yemen is positioned to satisfy global LNG demand – tons of capacity and accesses every major market

Kurmanaev, International Journalist Intern, 2010

(Anatoly, "Decrypting Yemen’s LNG Future," National Yemen, 10-17-10, http://nationalyemen.com/2010/10/17/decrypting-yemen%E2%80%99s-lng-future/, accessed 1-13-12, mtf)

A year ago Yemen joined the … well-positioned to exploit this demand.

LNG shortages cause massive investment in methane-hydrate gases

NETL, 2011

(National Energy Technology Laboratory, Last modified 12-20-11, http://www.netl.doe.gov/technologies/oil-gas/FutureSupply/MethaneHydrates/about-hydrates/hydrateResearch.htm, accessed 1-13-12, mtf)

By 1999, the growing recognition of … R&D projects within this program.

Move to methane hydrates causes extinction

Sassoon, Guardian Environment Network, 2010

(David, “Did Deepwater methane hydrates cause the BP Gulf explosion?” 5-20-10, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/may/20/deepwater-methane-hydrates-bp-gulf, accessed 1-13-12, mtf)

The vast deepwater methane … of nature scientists are still just getting to know.

Continued shift to LNG cuts greenhouse gas emissions – key to sustainable future

Kumar et. al, Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, Yonsei University, 2011

(Satish; Hyouk-Tae Kwon, GS Engineering & Construction, GS Yeokjeon Tower; Kwang-Ho Choi, GS Engineering & Construction, GS Yeokjeon Tower; Wonsub Lim, Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, Yonsei University; Jae Hyun Cho; Kyungjae Tak; Il Moon, "LNG: An eco-friendly cryogenic fuel for sustainable development," Applied Energy Volume 88, Issue 12, December 2011, Pages 4264–4273, Science Direct, accessed 1-13-12, mtf)

7. Lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of LNG vs. oil & coal

Production, transport and … hence; it is an eco-friendly fuel.

Human activity is causing rapid global warming – this is confirmed by peer-reviewed scientific studies

The Philippine Star 2010

(“More rapid response to global warming urged”, 1-14, http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=540503&publicationSubCategoryId=75, ldg)

Changes in the atmosphere, the oceans … the onset of the industrial era.

Warming runs away and causes extinction

Brandenburg,  member of the NASA Technical Advisory Committee of Technology and Commercialization, 1999

(John, Dead Mars, Dying Earth, pg 70, ldg)

Suddenly, the gradual climb in … hardy microbes surviving.

Plan Text

Plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase its democracy assistance by offering political organization capacity to the Syrian National Council.

We believe the framework for this round should be a contestation of policy proposals where the affirmative presents a plan of action for the United States federal government according to the resolution and the negative defends the status quo or a competitive policy option.

Contention One: Stability

Violence in Syria is escalating – failure of opposition causes radicalization of tactics

Basu, CNN writer, 12-23-11

(Moni, "Car bombs mark escalation of violence in Syria," CNN, 12-23-11, http://articles.cnn.com/2011-12-23/middleeast/world_meast_syria-violence-escalation_1_syrian-state-media-syria-expert-andrew-tabler?_s=PM:MIDDLEEAST, accessed 1-17-12, mtf)

In the 10 months that Syrians …an al Qaeda threat," he wrote.

Assad collapse inevitable – drawn-out revolution leads to violent radicalization and lashout, quick transition inhibits Iranian influence and regional terrorism

Anderson, professor at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies, 2011

(James H., director of Middle East policy in the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 2006 to 2009, "After the Fall: What’s Next for Assad and Syria?," World Affiars, November/December, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/after-fall-what%E2%80%99s-next-assad-and-syria, accessed 1-17-12, mtf)

Getting a clear read on developments … pressures hasten its inglorious end.

Delaying the inevitable triggers an intractable civil war – US action key

Boot, Senior Fellow for National Security Studies, 2011

(Max, Jeane J. Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow, "Assad Must Go," Council on Foreign Relations, 12-5-11, http://www.cfr.org/syria/assad-must-go/p26706, accessed 1-17-12, mtf)

The "realist" case for Bashar …but more action is necessary.

The longer we wait, the greater the magnitude and probability – plan key to avoid violent radicalization

Tabler, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2011

(Andrew J., Next Generation Fellow for Program on Arab Politics, "U.S. Policy in Syria," testimony before U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Near Eastern and South and Central Asian Affairs United States Senate, 11-9-11, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/html/pdf/TablerSenate20111109.pdf, accessed 1-17-12, mtf)

Increasing numbers in the Syrian … spread to neighboring countries.

Slow collapse causes Assad lashout against Israel – provokes regional nuclear and chemical war

Ceren, PhD candidate at USC, 2011

(Omri, doctoral candidate in Rhetoric at the University of Southern California's Annenberg School for Communication, founder of the blog Mere Rhetoric, his investigative journalism has been cited by the Associated Press, Reuters, CNN, BBC, and NY Times, "Just How Bad Could a Syrian Collapse Get?," Commentary Magazine, 8-1-11, http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/08/01/syrian-collapse-israel/, accessed 1-17-12, mtf)

But the continued stability of the … Israeli politicians to overreact less.

Escalates globally – draws in China and Russia and leads to extinction

Stirling, BS in Political Science and Masters in European Studies, 2011

(The Earl of Stirling, "General Middle East War Nears," 3-30-11, http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2011/03/general-middle-east-war-nears-syrian.html, accessed 1-17-12, mtf)

There are somewhere between … is left to write about it.

Syria will attack with smallpox.

Corsi, Harvard political science PhD, 2007

(Jerome, “Syria ready with bio-terror if U.S. hits Iran”, 3-5, http://www.wnd.com/?pageId=40459, DOA: 8-17-11, ldg)

"Syria is positioned to launch a biological …causes the disease in humans.

That causes extinction

Singer, Illinois Nuclear, Plasma, and Radiological Engineering professor, 2001

(Clifford, “Will Mankind Survive the Millennium?”, http://acdis.illinois.edu/assets/docs/312/articles/WillMankindSurvivetheMillennium.pdf, DOA: 8-17-11, ldg)

In recent years the fear of the … in question when and if this is achieved

Small pox would be devastating – the population is no longer vaccinated.

Spector, James Martin Center for nonproliferation deputy director, 2010

(Leonard, “Sterry R. Waterman Lecture: Slowing Proliferation: Why Legal Tools Matter”, Spring,  34 Vt. L. Rev. 619, lexis, ldg)

And in the area of biological … use in as little as two years.

Contention Two: Credibility

The plan solves U.S. credibility – avoids kiss of death

Tobin, Commentary Magazine writer, 2011

(Jonathan S., "U.S. Support Doesn’t Taint Syrian Protests," Commentary Magazine, 7-8-11, http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/07/08/american-support-doesn%E2%80%99t-taint-syrian-protests/, accessed 1-12-12, mtf)

U.S. Ambassador Robert S. Ford …will now know they are not alone.

Leadership on Syria key to credibility with the Arab world and effective policymaking

Pletka, vice president of foreign and defense policy studies at AEI, 2011

(Danielle, “US needs to lead from the front on Syria,” American Enterprise Institute, 11-18-11, http://www.aei.org/article/debate-prep-us-needs-to-lead-from-the-front-on-syria/, accessed 1-17-12, mtf)

Consider the stakes: Syria is … was all but absent.

Lack of credibility strengthens Iran and kills heg – causes nuclear arms race, nuke terror, conventional escalation and accidental nuke war drawing in the US

Kroenig, Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, 2012

(Matthew, former Special Adviser in the Office of the U.S. Secretary of Defense, "Time to Attack Iran: Why a Strike Is the Least Bad Option," Foriegn Affairs, January/February, Volume 91, Issue 1, ProQuest, accessed 1-17-12, mtf)

Some states in the region are doubting … draw the United States in, as well.

No chance of defense – credibility gaps encourage regional rivalries

Wehrey, senior policy analyst with RAND 10 

[Frederic, RAND National Defense Research Institute, “The Iraq Effect,” http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2010/RAND_MG892.pdf, 7/30/11, atl]

That said, despite the view that … years following the Iraq War.

U.S. hegemonic decline causes global great-power war, collapses trade and spreads economic nationalism and protectionism

Zhang et al., Carnegie Endowment researcher, 2011

(Yuhan, “America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry”, 1-22, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/, DOA: 9-21-11, ldg)

This does not necessarily mean …devoid of unrivalled US primacy.

Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction-multipolarity is inevitable but absolute US power smoothes the transition and is empirically correlated to perpetual great-power peace

Barnett, Naval War College Warfare Analysis & Research Department professor, 2011

(Thomas, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads”, 3-7, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads, DOA: 10-9-11, ldg)

Let me be more blunt: As the … embedded in the geometry to come.

War is at its lowest level in history because of US primacy---best statistical studies prove heg solves war because it makes democratic peace resilient globalization sustainable---it’s the deeper cause of proximate checks against war

Owen, UVA politics professor, 2011

(John, “Don’t Discount Hegemony”, 2-11, http://www.cato-unbound.org/2011/02/11/john-owen/dont-discount-hegemony/, DOA: 10-9-11, ldg)

We would still need to explain … for liberal democracy remains strong.

No risk of their heg bad turns---US engagement and reintervention are inevitable---it’s only a question of making it effective---the plan prevents failed engagement that triggers their turns

Kagan, Brooking senior foreign policy fellow, 2011

(Robert, "The Price of Power" Weekly Standard, 1-24, www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533696.html?page=3, DOA: 10-11-11, ldg)

In theory, the United States could …has built and defended.

Contention Three: Solvency

SNC assistance is key to create an effective transition that doesn’t escalate to broader civil war

Maalouf and Torbey, POMED, 12-16-11

(Marwan is a human rights lawyer focusing on the rule of law and political reforms in the Middle East and North Africa and formerly oversaw programs on human rights and democracy promotion in the Arab world for Freedom House; Khattar is an international lawyer and PhD candidate in Regional Integration in the Middle East at Kansas University, "Breaking the Stalemate in Syria," Project on Middle East Democracy, 12-16-11, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/POMED-Policy-Brief_Maalouf.pdf, accessed 1-10-12, mtf)

During this time, Syria’s … to push for a transfer of power.

They will say yes

Mutter, contributor to Mondoweiss, Foreign Policy in Focus and the Arabist, 1-5-12

(Paul, "Mixed messages from Syrian National Council on U.S., Israel," Mondoweiss, 1-5-12, http://mondoweiss.net/2012/01/mixed-messages-from-syrian-national-council-on-u-s-israel.html, accessed 1-9-12, mtf)

Despite the unity agreement, … full terms of the unity agreement.

Syria Security K

Previous Syria aid should have triggered the link – but the plan is still inherent

Shaoul, WSWS, 12-18-11

(Jean, “A Reminder: US seeks to exploit anti-Assad movement in Syria”, http://axisoflogic.com/artman/publish/Article_62839.shtml, DOA: 1-2-12, ldg)

 According to cables …operation had been exposed.

So perm do both:

A. Either the alt is so strong it can overcome the residual links of the aff or its not strong enough to solve at all

B. Aid now is an instance external to the aff, that links to the K, aff is a small drop in a big bucket

Plan solves the K-we can reinvent the police to produce civil forms of security that produce liberty and resolve threat construction.

Loader et al., All Souls College criminology professor, 2007

(Ian, Civilizing Security, pg 115-6, ldg)

The variant of state - and security - scepticism …of the modern state tradition.

3. Security is a pre-req to the alternative – gives value to our existence

Booth, Wales International Politics professor, 2005

(Ken, Critical Security Studies and World Politics, pg 22, ldg)

The best starting point for conceptualizing …beyond the merely biological.

4. Perm do the plan and all non-mutually exclusive parts of the alt

8. Realism inevitable – Engrained policy makers.

Guzzini, European University Institute political science PhD, 1998

(Stefano, Realism in international relations and international political economy, pg 212, ldg)

Therefore, in a third step this … necessarily in the spirit of realism. 

9. Realism solves conflict escalation.

Flynn, Stanford International Security professor, 2007

(Stephen, The Edge of Disaster: Rebuilding a Resilient Nation, pg. 9-10, ldg)

Thinking about and preparing for when things can go very wrong need not be about becoming a nation of Chicken Littles. It is foolish and self-destructive to oscillate between immobilizing fear, on the one hand, and blithely going about our lives playing a societal version of Russian roulette, on the other. Natural disasters will happen, and not all terrorist attacks can be prevented. However, what is preventable is the cascading effects that flow from these disasters and attacks. The loss of life and economic fallout that disasters reap will always be magnified by our lack of preparedness to manage the risk actively and to respond effectively when things go wrong.

10. Extinction outweighs the K

Wapner, professor and director of the Global Environmental Policy Program at American University, 2003

(Paul, “Leftist Criticism of "Nature" Environmental Protection in a Postmodern Age,” Dissent Winter 2003 http://www.dissentmagazine. org/menutest/archives/2003/ wi03/wapner.html, ldg)

All attempts to listen to nature are … compromise their fundamental moral commitment.

Securitization is inevitable.

Loader et al., All Souls College criminology professor, 2007

(Ian, Civilizing Security, pg 258-9, ldg)

The way ahead, in our view, and the … exists in some form or other.

y2AC

Stability

Their epistemology claims are wrong—our authors are capable of making non-racist assumptions—they link to all of their knowledge production claims and re-entrench Orientalism.

Teitelbaum, Moshe Dayan Center for Middle East and African Studies senior fellow, 2006

(Joshua, “Students, Teachers, and Edward Said: Taking Stock of Orientalism”, March, http://www.campus-watch.org/article/id/2493, DOA: 8-14-11, ldg)

The critics did not deny that … an opinion of their own. S

The K doesn’t disprove our truth claims – Mid East scholarship is broad and reflexive – it can effectively integrate critique

Lockman, NYU Islamic Studies department chair, 2005

(Zachary, “Critique from the Right: The Neo-conservative Assault on Middle East Studies,” The New Centennial Review 5.1, project muse, ldg)

It may be too soon to … affected large stretches of Eurasia.

Our argument is not just western-centric scholarship, middle-eastern scholars agree that Iran is a threat

Hamada, Cairo political science professor, 2010

(Amal, “Why should we care about iran” http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContentP/4/2369/Opinion/Why-should-we-care-about-Iran.aspx, DOA: 12-16-11, ldg)

States do not determine their relationships … exchanged criticism in different issues.

Other gulf states have already constructed Iran as a threat

Stanley Foundation 2005

(“The Future of Persian Gulf Security: Alternatives for the 21st Century” http://www.stanleyfoundation.org/publications/pdb/pdb05pg.pdf, DOA: 12-15-11, ldg)

The broader international community—led …positive cooperation with its neighbors.

Critiques of representations can’t change U.S. policy toward the Middle East – people won’t give up their pre-conceived notions no matter how true their K is

Colla, Watson Institute for International Studies Middle East Studies director, 2003

(Elliott, “Power, knowledge, and investment: United States foreign policy in the Middle East and the US public sphere”, Postcolonial Studies, Vol. 6, No. 1, ebsco, ldg)

How might the arguments of … they are supposed to explain

Uncertainty doesn’t take out the AFF-you have a reasonable idea the plan will save lives that is sufficient.

Cowen, GMU economics professor, 2004

(Tyler, “The Epistemic Problem Does Not Refute Consequentialism”, 11-2, http://www.gmu.edu/centers/publicchoice/faculty%20pages/Tyler/Epistemic2.pdf, DOA; 10-23-11, ldg)

If we know for sure which remedy … upfront benefits of obvious importance.

Credibility

Focus on strategic deterrence and democracy are key to adverting crisis escalation—reject the infinite number of root causes that debilitate action

Moore, UVA law professor, 2004

(John, “Beyond the Democratic Peace: Solving the War Puzzle”, 44 Va. J. Int'l L. 341, Winter, lexis, ldg)

If major interstate war is … are dramatically increased or decreased?

A monopoly on violence and policy deterrence has made the modern west the most peaceful place and time in history – prefer our comparative studies over their nonsensical leftism

Pinker, Johnstone Family Professor in the Department of Psychology at Harvard University, 2007

[Steven, March 19, 2007, “A History of Violence”, http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/pinker07/pinker07_index.html, 8/30/11, atl]

Some of the evidence has been … people's conception of violence in early civilizations

—namely, those featured in the …other dealers of contraband.

ria Previous aid to Syria non uniques the link, but we still have inherency

Shaoul, WSWS, 12-18-11

(Jean, “A Reminder: US seeks to exploit anti-Assad movement in Syria”, http://axisoflogic.com/artman/publish/Article_62839.shtml, DOA: 1-2-12, ldg)

 According to cables published … that the entire operation had been exposed.

Perm do both:

A. Either the alt is so strong it can overcome the residual links of the aff or its not strong enough to solve at all

B. Aid now is an instance external to the aff, that links to the K, aff is a small drop in a big bucket

Perm solves best- democracy assistance can be rehabilitated and doesn’t require political engineering- BUT inaction plays into the hands of autocrats

Allen, Democracy Digest editor, 11

(Michael, "Revitalizing and rehabilitating democracy assistance?," Democracy Digest, www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/04/revitalizing-and-rehabilitating-democracy-assistance/, accessed 11-12-11, mss)

Promoting democracy necessarily … also may be more sustainable.

Anti-imperialism fails-totalizing critique prevents struggles that engage struggles for human rights and causes paralysis.

Zakaria, Indiana Political science PhD, 2007

(Rafia, “`Other' imperialism” Frontline Volume 24, Issue 6, http://www.hindu.com/fline/fl2406/stories/20070406000607600.htm, DOA: 9-22-11, ldg)

The most astute argument … Iranian Right, not the Left".

 As Postel states, "it is the reactionary … tyrannical politics of military intervention.

Perm do the plan then the alt

Zero risk of intervention

Youngs et al., FRIDE Democratisation programme coordinator, 2006

(Richard, “Democracy Promotion and the European Left: Ambivalence Confused?”, December, http://www.fride.org/publication/19/democracy-promotion-and-the-european-left:-ambivalence-confused, DOA: 9-23-11, ldg)

The left needs to get beyond … internal debates during the 1990s.

Focus on strategic deterrence and democracy are key to adverting crisis escalation—reject the infinite number of root causes that debilitate action

Moore, UVA law professor, 2004

(John, “Beyond the Democratic Peace: Solving the War Puzzle”, 44 Va. J. Int'l L. 341, Winter, lexis, ldg)

If major interstate war is … are dramatically increased or decreased?

Perm do the plan and all non-exclusive parts of the alt

Extinction outweighs the K

Wapner, professor and director of the Global Environmental Policy Program at American University, 2003

(Paul, “Leftist Criticism of "Nature" Environmental Protection in a Postmodern Age,” Dissent Winter 2003 http://www.dissentmagazine. org/menutest/archives/2003/ wi03/wapner.html, ldg)

All attempts to listen to nature … their fundamental moral commitment.

The K doesn’t disprove our truth claims – Mid East scholarship is broad and reflexive – it can effectively integrate critique

Lockman, NYU Islamic Studies department chair, 2005

(Zachary, “Critique from the Right: The Neo-conservative Assault on Middle East Studies,” The New Centennial Review 5.1, project muse, ldg)

It may be too soon to … affected large stretches of Eurasia.

Critiques of representations can’t change U.S. policy toward the Middle East – people won’t give up their pre-conceived notions no matter how true their K is

Colla, Watson Institute for International Studies Middle East Studies director, 2003

(Elliott, “Power, knowledge, and investment: United States foreign policy in the Middle East and the US public sphere”, Postcolonial Studies, Vol. 6, No. 1, ebsco, ldg)

How might the arguments of … they are supposed to explain

Previous aid to Syria non uniques the link, but we still have inherency

Shaoul, WSWS, 12-18-11

(Jean, “A Reminder: US seeks to exploit anti-Assad movement in Syria”, http://axisoflogic.com/artman/publish/Article_62839.shtml, DOA: 1-2-12, ldg)

 According to cables published … that the entire operation had been exposed.

Non Unique and Turn—China wants the stability that the plan provides above all else—and U.S. influence in the Middle East is already high

Weitz, 11-6-11

(Richard, “How China Sees Middle East,” http://the-diplomat.com/china-power/2011/09/06/how-china-sees-middle-east/)

Where does all this leave … and misguided regional policies.

US-Russian Relations resilient – START treaty and Obama’s “reset” prove

de Nesnera, VOA News, 12-29-11

(Andre, "Analysts: US, Russia Relations Are Good Despite Differences," 12-29-11, http://www.voanews.com/english/news/europe/Relations-Between-US-Russia-Are-Good-136389268.html, accessed 1-20-12, lmm)

Most experts agree relations …a no-fly zone over Libya.

No Impact—U.S.-China relations are resilient

Denmark, 1-12-11

(Abraham, “U.S. seeks to revitalize ties with China,” http://www.cnas.org/node/5539)      

Harding said the U.S. hasn't …countries are highly interdependent."

Space debris solves global warming

Williams, SRJC physics professor, 8

[Lynda, 2008, "Space Ecology: The Final Frontier of Environmentalism," Natural Living Magazine, www.scientainment.com/spaceecology.pdf, accessed 5-5-11, mss]

The problem of space debris … solve the global warming problem. 

Warming causes extinction

Henderson, 8-19-6             

[Bill, "Runaway Global Warming - Denial," http://www.countercurrents.org/cc-henderson190806.htm]

The scientific debate about … greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.

Perm do both

Solvency deficit – can’t access US credibility – NB to perm

CP fails – Canada can’t fund the plan

Sundstrom, assistant political science professor at University of British Columbia, 2005

(Lisa McIntosh, “Hard Choices, Good Causes: Exploring Options for Canada’s Overseas Democracy Assistance,” IRPP Policy Matters, Volume 6, Number 4, September, http://www.irpp.org/pm/archive/pmvol6no4.pdf, accessed 1-24-12, mtf)

The experiences of governments … Canadian economy since 2003.

Canada’s one-size-fits-all approach kills solvency

Sundstrom, assistant political science professor at University of British Columbia, 2005

(Lisa McIntosh, “Hard Choices, Good Causes: Exploring Options for Canada’s Overseas Democracy Assistance,” IRPP Policy Matters, Volume 6, Number 4, September, http://www.irpp.org/pm/archive/pmvol6no4.pdf, accessed 1-24-12, mtf)

Thus, we do have something … democracies. Context is everything.

Canada soft power fails at resolving conflicts- past initiatives prove

Nunez 04

(Joseph R Nunez “Canada's Global Role: A Strategic Assessment of its Military Power” Storming Media Pentagon Reports, January 1, 2004 http://www.stormingmedia.us/55/5546/A554684.html) msd

Even before 2001, Canada was … possess a modicum of hard power

Canada’s soft power cannot solve – they lack hard power and a strong culture. 

Namasivayam, M. A. Candidate in Conflict Analysis at Carleton University 2001

(Reesha, "Soft Power At The United Nations: A Compatible Marriage between Canada and the Security Council?" <http://cda-cdai.ca/cdai/uploads/cdai/2009/04/namasivayam01.pdf>). ejf

Even the ‘father’ of soft … strong compared to American culture.

Plan: The United States federal government should offer substantial political organization capacity to the Syrian National Council.

Contention One – Stability

Sectarianism is intensifying – long-concealed tensions between Sunnis and Alawites risk civil war

Reuters, 2-22

("As Syrians flee Homs, sectarian faultlines deepen," Reuters, 2-22-12, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/22/us-syria-displaced-idUSTRE81L1JS20120222, accessed 2-22-12, mtf)

Even before government forces …anger, whatever position they take.

Lack of US support leads to continued militarization – coalescing the SNC key to check

Heydemann, US Institute of Peace Middle East Initiative senior advisor, 2-22

(Steven, "Managing militarization in Syria," Foreign Policy, 2-22-12, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/02/22/managing_militarization_in_syria, accessed 2-22-12, mtf)

As militarization has expanded and … or the armed leadership of the FSA.

Assad collapse inevitable – high-scale defections and decreased regime military capability

Haaretz and Reuters, 2-5

("Syria's top army defector tells The Telegraph: Assad's forces will fall this month," 2-5-12, http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/syria-s-top-army-defector-tells-the-telegraph-assad-s-forces-will-fall-this-month-1.411172, accessed 2-22-12, mtf)

Syria's most senior army defector, General …Observatory for Human Rights said.

Delaying the inevitable triggers an intractable civil war – US action key

Boot, Senior Fellow for National Security Studies, 2011

(Max, Jeane J. Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow, "Assad Must Go," Council on Foreign Relations, 12-5-11, http://www.cfr.org/syria/assad-must-go/p26706, accessed 1-17-12, mtf)

The "realist" case for Bashar … but more action is necessary.

The longer we wait, the greater the magnitude and probability – plan key to avoid violent radicalization

Tabler, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2011

(Andrew J., Next Generation Fellow for Program on Arab Politics, "U.S. Policy in Syria," testimony before U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Near Eastern and South and Central Asian Affairs United States Senate, 11-9-11, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/html/pdf/TablerSenate20111109.pdf, accessed 1-17-12, mtf)

Increasing numbers in the Syrian … and spread to neighboring countries.

Supporting the opposition is key to a soft landing-other options alienate Syrian people and lead to diversionary wars

Monajed, Syrian Revolution News Roundup publisher, 2011

(Ausama, leading Syrian dissident, "In Syria, an opening for the West to bring about Assad’s downfall," Washington Post, 6-26-11, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/in-syria-an-opening-for-the-west-to-bring-about-assads-downfall/2011/06/24/AGz4hcmH_story.html, accessed 1-24-12, mtf)

World governments seem unwilling to … of Syria, not their oppressor.

Slow collapse leads to intensified conflict and draws in great powers – unifying the opposition is key

Bell, University of Windsor International Diplomacy Scholar, 12

(Michael, former Canadian ambassador to Egypt, Jordan, Israel and the Palestinian territories, "After Assad's fall, a sectarian struggle," The Globe and Mail, 2-3-12, http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/opinion/after-assads-fall-a-sectarian-struggle/article2324584/, accessed 2-22-12, mtf)

The opposition to the Asad regime …of the 1980s, on steroids.

Global escalation draws in China and Russia and leads to extinction

Stirling, BS in Political Science and Masters in European Studies, 11

(The Earl of Stirling, "General Middle East War Nears," 3-30-11, http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2011/03/general-middle-east-war-nears-syrian.html, accessed 1-17-12, mtf)

There are somewhere between … anyone is left to write about it.

Contention Two – Credibility

The plan solves US credibility – avoids kiss of death

Tobin, Commentary Magazine writer, 11

(Jonathan S., "U.S. Support Doesn’t Taint Syrian Protests," Commentary Magazine, 7-8-11, http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/07/08/american-support-doesn%E2%80%99t-taint-syrian-protests/, accessed 1-12-12, mtf)

U.S. Ambassador Robert S. Ford … now know they are not alone.

Leadership on Syria key to credibility with the Arab world and effective policymaking

Pletka, vice president of foreign and defense policy studies at AEI, 11

(Danielle, “US needs to lead from the front on Syria,” American Enterprise Institute, 11-18-11, http://www.aei.org/article/debate-prep-us-needs-to-lead-from-the-front-on-syria/, accessed 1-17-12, mtf)

Consider the stakes: Syria is Iran's … down, America was all but absent.

US needs to aggressively support the Arab Spring-anything less signals regional decline

Hamid, Brookings Doha center research director, 11

(Shadi, “What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring,” Brookings, 10-1-11, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/1001_obama_hamid.aspx, accessed 2-29-12, mtf)

Throughout the Arab spring, analysts … of support for “stable,” repressive regimes.

Assistance to Syria is key to credibility-protestor violence makes it the litmus test

Crowley, Penn State Dickinson School of Law and School of International Affairs, 11

(P.J., former assistant secretary and spokesman for the State Department in the Obama administration, Omar Bradley chair of strategic leadership at Dickinson College, Army War College, "Obama must tell Assad to go," Washington Post, 6-19-11, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/obama-tell-syrias-assad-he-has-to-go/2011/06/17/AGlZB3bH_story.html, accessed 1-29-12, mtf)

Six months into the Arab Spring, the …and on the right side of history.

Cred in the Middle East spills over and defines overall hegemony

Inboden, Texas Austin Public Affairs professor, 11

(Will, “The global chessboard,” Foreign Policy, 11-21-11, http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/11/21/the_global_chess_board, accessed 2-29-12, mtf)

China, after all, sees its … same global chessboard.

U.S. hegemonic decline causes global great-power war, collapses trade and spreads economic nationalism and protectionism

Zhang et al., Carnegie Endowment researcher, 11

(Yuhan, “America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry”, 1-22, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/, DOA: 9-21-11, ldg)

This does not necessarily mean … be devoid of unrivalled US primacy.

Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction-multipolarity is inevitable but absolute US power smoothes the transition and is empirically correlated to perpetual great-power peace

Barnett, Naval War College Warfare Analysis & Research Department professor, 11

(Thomas, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads”, 3-7, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads, DOA: 10-9-11, ldg)

Let me be more blunt: As the … in the geometry to come.

War is at its lowest level in history because of US primacy---best statistical studies prove heg solves war because it makes democratic peace resilient globalization sustainable---it’s the deeper cause of proximate checks against war

Owen, UVA politics professor, 11

(John, “Don’t Discount Hegemony”, 2-11, http://www.cato-unbound.org/2011/02/11/john-owen/dont-discount-hegemony/, DOA: 10-9-11, ldg)

We would still need to explain … for liberal democracy remains strong.

No risk of their heg bad turns---US engagement and reintervention are inevitable---it’s only a question of making it effective---the plan prevents failed engagement that triggers their turns

Kagan, Brooking senior foreign policy fellow, 11

(Robert, "The Price of Power" Weekly Standard, 1-24, www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533696.html?page=3, DOA: 10-11-11, ldg)

In theory, the United States could … power has built and defended.

Contention Three – Solvency

Plan solves SNC unity – critical to avoid civil war

Lynch, George Washington University political science professor, 2-21

(Dr. Marc, associate professor of political science and international affairs, "Pressure Not War: A Pragmatic and Principled Policy Towards Syria," Center for a New American Security, February Policy Brief, 2-21-12, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_PressureNotWar_Lynch.pdf, accessed 2-22-12, mtf)

Support And Encourage Unity Among …armed  groups and protracted civil war.

SNC assistance is key to create an effective transition

Maalouf and Torbey, POMED, 11

(Marwan is a human rights lawyer focusing on the rule of law and political reforms in the Middle East and North Africa and formerly oversaw programs on human rights and democracy promotion in the Arab world for Freedom House; Khattar is an international lawyer and PhD candidate in Regional Integration in the Middle East at Kansas University, "Breaking the Stalemate in Syria," Project on Middle East Democracy, 12-16-11, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/POMED-Policy-Brief_Maalouf.pdf, accessed 1-10-12, mtf)

During this time, Syria’s long-fragmented …push for a transfer of power.

They will say yes

Mutter, contributor to Mondoweiss, Foreign Policy in Focus, and the Arabist, 12

(Paul, "Mixed messages from Syrian National Council on U.S., Israel," Mondoweiss, 1-5-12, http://mondoweiss.net/2012/01/mixed-messages-from-syrian-national-council-on-u-s-israel.html, accessed 1-9-12, mtf)

Despite the unity agreement, one …terms of the unity agreement.

Stability

Assad is collapsing – army defections

IPT News, 2-2

(The Investigative Project on Terrorism, “Assad Regime Starts to Implode,” 2-2-12, http://www.investigativeproject.org/3425/assad-regime-starts-to-implode, accessed 2-29-12, mtf)

U.S. intelligence officials are …revolt by the Muslim Brotherhood.

Economy dooms Assad

Peel and Fielding-Smith, FT writers, 2-6

(Michael and Abigail, “Syria’s ailing economy hits citizens and regime,” Financial Times, 2-6-12, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2ceb7690-50df-11e1-8cdb-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1nnWxGkrP, accessed 2-29-12, mtf)

As attention focuses on the … faces of the same currency.”

Plan leads to more military defections.

Holman, IWPR contributor, 11

(Zoe, “Syrian opposition searches for unity,” Asia Times Online, 10-5-11, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/middle_east/mj05ak02.html, accessed 2-29-12, mtf)

There have been a number of army … or its resources are exhausted."

Siphoning away the military and business elites solves violence and collapses Assad

Yacoubian, US Institute of Peace Middle East senior program officer, 11

(Mona, Henry L. Stimson Center where she will continue working on the Arab uprisings, “Saving Syria from civil war,” Foreign Policy, 10-5-11, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/10/05/saving_syria_from_civil_war, accessed 2-29-12, mtf)

Syria's power structure resembles … interests away from the regime.

Signaling the opposition will protect minorities wrecks Assad

Yacoubian, US Institute of Peace Middle East senior program officer, 11

(Mona, Henry L. Stimson Center where she will continue working on the Arab uprisings, “Saving Syria from civil war,” Foreign Policy, 10-5-11, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/10/05/saving_syria_from_civil_war, accessed 2-29-12, mtf)

Beyond these external pressure … avoids sinking into civil war.

SNC credibility is low now-plan is key to reverse negative momentum

Vela, Foreign Policy Istanbul based journalist, 12

(Justin, “Rebels Without a Clue,” 1-31-12, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/31/syria_rebels_without_a_clue?page=0,2, accessed 2-29-12, mtf)

"We know it is impossible to be 100 … get some much-deserved rest.

Syria says yes – they like the West

Choksy et al., Indian Strategic Intelligence and Information Management adjunct lecturer, 11

(Carol E. B. and Jamsheed K., “The Syrian Opposition: A Strategic Analysis”, Small Wars Journal, 9-29-11, http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/the-syrian-opposition-a-strategic-analysis, accessed 1-24-12, mtf)

Nonetheless, Syrian protesters have … internally-generated regime change there.

Says yes

Macdonald, Reuters Middle East political news editor, 2-22

(Alastair, editor for political news across Europe, the Middle East and Africa, "Analysis: Inside and out, divisions keep Syria in stalemate," Reuters, 2-22-12, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/22/us-syria-stalemate-idUSTRE81L0R920120222, accessed 2-22-12, mtf)

That the anti-Assad rebels, themselves … in the Kremlin and Beijing.

Al-Qaeda does not have nuclear capabilities—past evidence shows they won’t use nuclear attacks

Frost, Simon Fraser political science professor, 2005

(Robin, “Nuclear Terrorism after 9/11,” Adelphi Papers, December, http://www.iiss.org/publications/adelphi-papers/adelphi-papers-archive/ap-378-nuclear-terrorism-after-911/, ldg)

From time to time, it has been … used to fabricate a radiological dispersion device.’

K

Perm—do both—the inclusion and embracing of the Daoist perspective is compatible with a renewed form of political engagement

Gunaratne, Minnesota State University Moorhead Communications Professor, 2010

(Shelton, "De-Westernizing communication/social science research," Media Culture Society 32, pg. 474-475) cab

In as much as the axial Asian … decolonization and some on globalization.

Even supporters of Daoism realize that Western attempts to embrace Daoism are utopian and lead to destruction of morality while instituting irrational politics that lead to fascism, oppression, and dehumanization

Dumain, Librarian/Archivist, CLR James Institute, no date

(Ralph, “Taoism & the Tao of Bourgeois Philosophy,” http://www.autodidactproject.org/my/tao1.html)

Clarke takes a 16th century Chinese …certain forms of twentieth-century fascism

Perm do the plan and embrace Daoism in all other instance – either the alt resolves the residual link OR it inevitably fails because the status quo

Extinction outweighs the K

Wapner, professor and director of the Global Environmental Policy Program at American University, 2003

(Paul, “Leftist Criticism of "Nature" Environmental Protection in a Postmodern Age,” Dissent Winter 2003 http://www.dissentmagazine. org/menutest/archives/2003/ wi03/wapner.html, ldg)

All attempts to listen to nature … fundamental moral commitment.

DA

We’ve given millions to Syria already

Shaoul, WSWS, 12-18-11

(Jean, “A Reminder: US seeks to exploit anti-Assad movement in Syria”, http://axisoflogic.com/artman/publish/Article_62839.shtml, DOA: 1-2-12, ldg)

 According to cables published by … that the entire operation had been exposed.

Empirically no escalation – deterrence has prevented conflict for 60 years

Kang, USC IR professor, 2010

(David, “Korea's New Cold War”, 12-31, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/koreas-new-cold-war-4653?page=1, DOA; 9-11-11, ldg)

However, despite dueling artillery … events of the past few months as justifying their own provocative actions.

Zero risk of Korean conflict

Rowland, Troy IR masters, 2010

(Ashley, “Despite threats, war not likely in Korea, experts say”, 12-3, http://www.stripes.com/news/despite-threats-war-not-likely-in-korea-experts-say-1.127344?localLinksEnabled=false, DOA: 9-23-11, ldg)

Despite increasingly belligerent threats … to be hit in a full-scale fight would be the elites.

Doesn’t solve economy or unemployment – only shifts jobs to different sectors

Brannon et. al, American Action Forum Director of Economic Policy, 11

(Ike Brannon is  the Director of Congressional Relations for AAF, the former chief economist for the House Energy and Commerce Committee, and has a PhD in economics from Indiana University; Elizabeth Lowell is a research analyst for AAF; "Export-Import Bank: Obstacles and Options for Reform," American Action Forum, May 2011, http://americanactionforum.org/sites/default/files/Ex-Im%20Final%20Draft21.pdf, accessed 2-26-12, mtf)

Job Creation or Reallocation?

According to Fred Hochberg, President … economic impact of export  financing.

Economy resilient

Zakaria, PhD in pol sci from Harvard, 9

(Fareed, “The Secrets of Stability,” 12 December 2009, http://www.fareedzakaria.com/articles/articles.html, d/a 9-26-11, zml)

One year ago, the world seemed … other and each historical in nature.

Decline doesn’t cause war

Miller, Professor of Administration @ the University of Ottawa, 10

(Morris, Interdisciplinary Science Review, v 25 n4 2000 p ingenta connect, d/a 9-26-11,zml)

The question may be reformulated. … of violence to abort another).

Won’t pass – partisan wrangling and lack of urgency

Barkley, Dow Jones Newswires, 2-23

(Tom, "Business Groups Urge Congress To Act On Ex-Im Bank, See Risk Of March Cap Hit," Wall Street Journal Online, 2-23-12, http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120223-715321.html, accessed 2-25-12, mtf)

House and Senate negotiators … Congress, but the lack of urgency.

Eval CP

CP is normal means

Foreign Assistance.gov, no date

("Frequently Asked Questions," http://foreignassistance.gov/FAQ.aspx, accessed 3-4-12, mtf)

What is the Foreign Assistance … could lead to viable solutions.

Participatory Evaluation is controversial

Cullen, Western Michigan University Evaluation Center, 2011

(Anne, “The Politics and Consequences of Including Stakeholders in International Development Evaluation”, http://www.wmich.edu/evalphd/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/The-Politics-and-Consequences-of-Including-Stakeholders-in-International-Development-Evaluation.pdf, DOA; 10-22-11, ldg)

Presently, such approaches to … for them to be improved

PE Fails:

1. Bias

NRC 2008

(National Research Council, “Improving Democracy Assistance: Building Knowledge Through Evaluations and Research”, http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12164&page=232, DOA: 10-22-11, ldg)

Using participatory evaluations to … a full understanding of project impacts.

2. Cherry picking

Cullen, Western Michigan University Evaluation Center, 2011

(Anne, “The Politics and Consequences of Including Stakeholders in International Development Evaluation”, http://www.wmich.edu/evalphd/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/The-Politics-and-Consequences-of-Including-Stakeholders-in-International-Development-Evaluation.pdf, DOA; 10-22-11, ldg)

In both the survey and interviews, … and validity of the evaluation.

3. Shallow feedback

Cullen, Western Michigan University Evaluation Center, 2011

(Anne, “The Politics and Consequences of Including Stakeholders in International Development Evaluation”, http://www.wmich.edu/evalphd/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/The-Politics-and-Consequences-of-Including-Stakeholders-in-International-Development-Evaluation.pdf, DOA; 10-22-11, ldg)

The negative consequences of … more time and money. 

A. We meet: political organization assistance fosters democracy – we provide capacity for the Syrian National Council, a key opposition group that upholds democratic ideals

Organization development is topical

Kumar, CDIE senior social scientist, 2004

(Krishna, “International Political Party Assistance An Overview and Analysis”, October, http://www.clingendael.nl/publications/2004/20041000_cru_working_paper_33.pdf, ldg)

In transition and post-conflict … to perform specific function.

B. Counter-interpretation: the aff must affect change in one of the four categories of democracy assistance.

Carothers, director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program, 2009 

(Thomas, “Revitalizing U.S. Democracy  Assistance the challenge of USAID, 10-29, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/revitalizing_democracy_assistance.pdf, ldg)

USAID’s democracy and governance … parties, and democratic consensus building.

We meet the CI and fall under civil society and political process reform.

C. Prefer our counter-interpretation:

1. Ground – we provide predictable neg ground based off increase of the four core areas democracy assistance

2. Neg overlimits – their interpretation moots – rule of law and governance affirmatives – that destroys a core topic area

3. No neg ground loss – they get politics links, democracy bad, heg arguments, relations arguments, perception-based arguments, etc.

4. Aff flexibility outweighs limits – democracy assistance is a weak mechanism

5. Reasonability and literature check—as long as we’re reasonably topical and at the core of the literature, there’s no reason to reject the aff

6. Don’t vote on potential abuse