App StatePlan Text

Plan: The United States Federal Government should increase its democracy assistance for Yemen by establishing an International Counter Narcotics and Law Enforcement program for Yemen in order to support the rule of law.

Contention One – Stability

The US should permanently provide Yemen with INCLE funds to support the rule of law and establish a stable police force

Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, 2011

[Jeremy M., "Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations," Congressional Research Service, 6-8-11, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL34170.pdf, accessed 7-31-11, mtf]

International Counter Narcotics and Law Enforcement … as appropriate, the criminal code.”

INCLE key to support rule of law in Yemen through police, justice, and prison development programs

INL, 2011

[BUREAU OF INTERNATIONAL NARCOTICS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT AFFAIRS, "FY 2011 Program and Budget Guide: Near East," http://www.state.gov/p/inl/rls/rpt/pbg/fy2011/149372.htm, accessed 8-3-11, mtf]

Yemen Budget Summary ($000)  … equipment donations. This is a new project.

Police reform key to taking down Al-Qaeda

Knoetgen, CEJISS columnist, 2011

[Capt. Peter, Commanding Officer US Naval Forces Central Command, Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, "Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil," 5-16-11, http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil, accessed 8-6-11, mtf]

Within a diplomatic context, the US should …assistance and aggressive offensive action.

Effective policing key internal link to solving terrorism – wins hearts and minds of people and provide long-term solvency

Grono, Deputy President of International Crisis Group, 2011

(Nick, Masters in Public Policy from Princeton, "Testimony to the Dutch Parliament on the Deployment of a Police Training Mission to Afghanistan," International Crisis Group is an NGO committed to preventing and resolving deadly conflict, 1-24-11, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/speeches/2011/testimony-to-dutch-parliament-afghanistan-police-mission.aspx, accessed 9-9-11, mtf)

1. Good policing is critical to counter insurgency  … governance are all out of reach.

AQAP will attack oil facilities in Saudi Arabia

Ulrichsen, research fellow at the London School of Economics and Political Science, 2011

(Kristian Coates, deputy director of the Kuwait Programme on Development, Governance and Globalisation in the Gulf States, "The Geopolitics of Insecurity in the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula," Middle East Policy Vol. 18.2, Summer, p. 120–135, Wiley Online Library, accessed 10-10-11, mtf)

The reconstitution of AQAP in January …regional stability in the Arabian Peninsula.9

Attacks on Saudi oil facilities collapse the global economy

Gartenstein-Ross, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 2011

(Daveed, directs the Center for the Study of Terrorist Radicalization, "Osama's Oil Obsession," Foreign Policy, 5-23-11, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/05/23/osamas_oil_obsession, accessed 10-10-11, mtf)

Bin Laden long believed that undermining …that they didn't think about."

Saudi oil production is irreplaceable – affects every indicator of the economy

Babej, Forbes marketing columnist, 2011

(Marc E., co-founder of Reason inc., "A Saudi Oil Supply Disruption-The Ultimate Marketing Crisis Scenario," Forbes, 3-29-11, http://www.forbes.com/sites/marcbabej/2011/03/29/a-saudi-oil-supply-disruption-the-ultimate-marketing-crisis-scenario/, accessed 10-12-11, mtf)

And still: in 2011, the term “unlikely” … products containing oil derivatives.

AQAP will strike the Bab Al-Mandeb strait, taking out oil transportation in the region

Watkins, Oil Diplomacy editor, 2010

(Eric, "Al-Qaeda's new oil strategy," Oil and Gas Journal, 2-15-10, Factiva, accessed 10-5-11, mtf)

The oil and gas industry has long heard … world's oil reserves are."

No substitutes – the Bab el-Mandeb is a key oil chokepoint – instability causes oil shocks

Roman, Editorial Assistant The Encyclopedia of Earth, 2008

(Alejandra, former research assistant at BU Center for Energy and Environmental Studies; Cutler Cleveland Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment at Boston University; Tom Lawrence Public Service Associate with the University of Georgia and Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering at Purdue, "Bab el-Mandeb," Encyclopedia of Earth, 9-12-08, http://www.eoearth.org/article/Bab_el-Mandeb, accessed 10-5-11, mtf)

The Bab el-Mandeb (Bab al-Mandab) strait … upward pressure on world oil prices.

Oil shocks cause global economic collapse, great power wars, and intensified warming

King, Center for a New American Security, 2008

(Neil Jr., "Peak Oil: A Survey of Security Concerns," Center for a New American Security Energy Security Visionaries Series, July, http://www.aspousa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/_CNAS_King_Peak_Oil_WorkingPaper.pdf, accessed 10-12-11, mtf)

Many commentators in the United States …blame for the country’s  travails.

Global economic crisis causes war---strong statistical support

Royal, director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010

(Jedediah, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal, and Political Perspectives, pg 213-215, ldg)

Less intuitive is how periods of economic …be considered ancillary to those views.

Contention Two – Saudi Arabia

US-Saudi relations down now – plan solves

Paikin, columnist for the Prince Arthur Herald, 2011

(Zach, "Paikin: W(h)ither Yemen?," Canadian student news source, 7-7-11, http://princearthurherald.com/archives/5783, accessed 8-14-11, mtf)

Yemen’s importance to American …Mubarak amid a popular uprising.

US action in Yemen key to solidify Saudi relations and counter Iran

Friedman, Chief Executive Officer and founder of Stratfor, 2011

(George, Ph.D. in government from Cornell, "Iraq, Iran and the Next Move," Real Clear World is a global news source, 4-26-11, http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2011/04/26/iraq_iran_and_the_next_move_99494.html, accessed 8-14-11, mtf)

As the United States leaves Iraq, … extreme risk for the United States.

Iran is contending for preeminence and Saudi Arabia is the key roadblock

Spindle and Coker, WSJ writers, 2011

(Bill is the Middle East Bureau Chief at Dow Jones/WSJ; and Margaret is a Middle East Correspondent at WSJ, "The New Cold War," WSJ, 4-16-11, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704116404576262744106483816.html, accessed 8-19-11, mtf)

For three months, the Arab world has been …to develop one of its own.

Relations key to check Iran prolif and regional instability

Global News Wire, 2011

(Compilation database, Regulatory Intelligence Data, "GATES, SAUDI KING DISCUSS DEFENSE RELATIONSHIP," 4-6-11, lexis, accessed 8-17-11, mtf)

Gates arrived here late this morning …of our key partners and stability in the region."

Iran prolif leads to Middle East prolif and escalates into nuclear war

Uchino, Kyoto University science professor, 2011

(Yoshinari, "Iran’s Nuclear Program and U.S. Security Policy," Proceedings of The 1st International Symposium on Liberal Arts and General Education, 3-10-11, http://www.viz.media.kyoto-u.ac.jp/sympo2010/data/Paper_Collection.pdf#page=47, p. 42-53, accessed 8-14-11, mtf)

If Iran goes nuclear, the relationship between … against nuclear-armed Iran.”[36]

Iran will have nuclear weapons and intercontinental missiles by 2015 – has hegemonic intentions

Uchino, Kyoto University science professor, 2011

(Yoshinari, "Iran’s Nuclear Program and U.S. Security Policy," Proceedings of The 1st International Symposium on Liberal Arts and General Education, 3-10-11, http://www.viz.media.kyoto-u.ac.jp/sympo2010/data/Paper_Collection.pdf#page=47, p. 42-53, accessed 8-14-11, mtf)

First, this section of this paper examines  …making deals over the nuclear  program.[23]

Middle East prolif won’t lead to deterrence – miscalculation and multiple scenarios for exchange ensure extinction

Russell, Research associate in Georgetown University’s institute for the study of diplomacy, 06

[Richard L., September 1, 2006, Military Review, “Military Planning for a Middle East Stockpiled with Nuclear Weapons”, 8/21/11, ADS]

How would the Middle East be affected …that exists in Pakistan today.

Best studies show that even a small scale nuclear war would lead to nuclear winter, cause massive climate change, and result in extinction

Robock, professor of climatology at Rutgers University, 2009

(Alan, Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers and associate director of its Center for Environmental Prediction, "Nuclear winter," The Encyclopedia of Earth, 1-6-09, http://www.eoearth.org/article/Nuclear_winter, accessed 9-9-11, mtf)

Introduction  Nuclear winter is a term …possibility of a nuclear environmental catastrophe.

Plan: The United States Federal Government should increase its democracy assistance for Yemen by establishing an International Counter Narcotics and Law Enforcement program for Yemen in order to support the rule of law.

INCLE supports rule of law and establishes a stable police force

Sharp, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, 2011

[Jeremy M., "Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations," Congressional Research Service, 6-8-11, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL34170.pdf, accessed 7-31-11, mtf]

International Counter Narcotics and Law Enforcement ...  and as appropriate, the criminal code.”

INCLE supports rule of law in Yemen through police, justice, and prison development programs

INL, 2011

[BUREAU OF INTERNATIONAL NARCOTICS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT AFFAIRS, "FY 2011 Program and Budget Guide: Near East," http://www.state.gov/p/inl/rls/rpt/pbg/fy2011/149372.htm, accessed 8-3-11, mtf]

Yemen Budget Summary ($000)  FY 2009 Actual ... equipment donations. This is a new project.

US-Saudi relations down now – plan solves

Paikin, columnist for the Prince Arthur Herald, 2011

(Zach, "Paikin: W(h)ither Yemen?," Canadian student news source, 7-7-11, http://princearthurherald.com/archives/5783, accessed 8-14-11, mtf)

Yemen’s importance to American security ... Hosni Mubarak amid a popular uprising.

US action in Yemen key to solidify Saudi relations and counter Iran

Friedman, Chief Executive Officer and founder of Stratfor, 2011

(George, Ph.D. in government from Cornell, "Iraq, Iran and the Next Move," Real Clear World is a global news source, 4-26-11, http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2011/04/26/iraq_iran_and_the_next_move_99494.html, accessed 8-14-11, mtf)

As the United States leaves Iraq, ... extreme risk for the United States.

Iran is contending for preeminence and Saudi Arabia is the key roadblock

Spindle and Coker, WSJ writers, 2011

(Bill is the Middle East Bureau Chief at Dow Jones/WSJ; and Margaret is a Middle East Correspondent at WSJ, "The New Cold War," WSJ, 4-16-11, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704116404576262744106483816.html, accessed 8-19-11, mtf)

For three months, the Arab world ... to develop one of its own.

Failure to limit Iran’s influence shatters hegemony globally.

Etzioni, George Washington political science professor, 2011

(Amatai, “The Coming Test of US Credibility”, Military Review, April, http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf, DOA: 9-22-11, ldg)

In addition, since 2008, both ...  up to its commitments overseas.

Hegemony solves nuke war and extinction-multipolarity is inevitable but absolute US power smoothes the transition and is empirically correlated to great-power peace

Barnett, Naval War College Warfare Analysis & Research Department professor, 2011

(Thomas, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads”, 3-7, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads, DOA: 10-9-11, ldg)

Let me be more blunt: As the ...  in the geometry to come.

U.S. hegemonic decline causes global great-power war, collapses trade and spreads economic nationalism and protectionism

Zhang et al., Carnegie Endowment researcher, 2011

(Yuhan, “America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry”, 1-22, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/, DOA: 9-21-11, ldg)

This does not necessarily mean that ... devoid of unrivalled US primacy.

That causes great power war

Hillebrand, Kentucky diplomacy professor, 2010

(Evan, “Deglobalization Scenarios: Who Wins? Who Loses?”, Global Economy Journal, Volume 10, Issue 2, ebsco, ldg)

A long line of writers from Cruce ...  the probability for interstate war rises.

War is at its lowest level in history because of US primacy---best statistical studies prove heg solves war because it makes democratic peace resilient globalization sustainable---it’s the deeper cause of proximate checks against war

Owen, UVA politics professor, 2011

(John, “Don’t Discount Hegemony”, 2-11, http://www.cato-unbound.org/2011/02/11/john-owen/dont-discount-hegemony/, DOA: 10-9-11, ldg)

We would still need to explain ... for liberal democracy remains strong.

Absolute decline means the US will become uncooperative and desperate---hegemonic wars will ensue

Goldstein, Penn IR professor, 2007

(Avery, “Power transitions, institutions, and China's rise in East Asia: Theoretical expectations and evidence,” Journal of Strategic Studies, Volume 30, Issue 4 & 5 August, ebsco, ldg)

Two closely related, though distinct,  . . .   prior to the possible crossover.19 pg. 647-650

Every credible measure of study shows violence is down because of everything consistent with the aff---heg, democracy, liberal trade---it’s only a question of sustaining current dynamics and preventing shocks to the system

Pinker, Harvard psychology professor, 2011

(Steven, “Violence Vanquished”, 9-24, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904106704576583203589408180.html, DOA; 10-9-11, ldg)

Believe it or not, the world ... with the electronic global village.

Focus on strategic deterrence and democracy are key to adverting crisis escalation—reject the infinite number of root causes that debilitate action

Moore, UVA law professor, 2004

(John, “Beyond the Democratic Peace: Solving the War Puzzle”, 44 Va. J. Int'l L. 341, Winter, lexis, ldg)

If major interstate war is predominantly a ... are dramatically increased or decreased?

Shocks to the system are the ONLY propensity for conflict—globalization and liberal norms have eradicated warfare and structural violence—every field study proves

Horgan, Stevens Institute of Technology Center for Science director, 2009

(John, “The End of the Age of War”, 12-6, http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2009/12/06/the-end-of-the-age-of-war.html, DOA: 10-9-11, ldg)

The economic crisis was supposed to ... International Peace Research Institute in Oslo.

Suffering outweighs- only concrete action solves

Ling, New School International Affairs professor, 2001

(LHM, Post-Colonial International Relations: Conquest and Desire Between Asia and the West, pg 59-60, ldg)

Without concrete action for change ... to do anything about it' (Spegele, 1992: 174).

Ethical decisions must be grounded in consequences

Isaac, political science professor Indiana University, 2002

(Jeffrey, “Ends, Means, and Politics, Dissent Magazine, Spring 2002, ldg)

Power is not a dirty word ... . And it undermines political effectiveness.

Extinction outweighs the K

Wapner, professor and director of the Global Environmental Policy Program at American University, 2003

(Paul, “Leftist Criticism of "Nature" Environmental Protection in a Postmodern Age,” Dissent Winter 2003 http://www.dissentmagazine. org/menutest/archives/2003/ wi03/wapner.html, ldg)

All attempts to listen to nature ...  compromise their fundamental moral commitment.

the K doesn’t takeout the aff- even if the plan never happens our objective should be to be critical intellectuals- that’s vital to change political structures

Jones, Aberystwyth International politics professor, 1999

(Richard, Security, Strategy, and Critical Theory, p. 155-163, ldg)

The central political task of  . . . challenge to critical security studies.

Only way to achieve true change is through policy relevance.

Gunnng, deputy director of the Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Contemporary Political Violence at the University of Wales 2007

(Jeroen, “A Case for Critical Terrorism Studies?” Government and Opposition Volume 42 Issue 3, ebsco, ldg)

The notion of emancipation also ... without betraying its 'critical' commitment.

No root cause

Goldstein 03 (Joshua, Prof of Int'l Relations @ American University, War and Gender: How Gender Shapes the War System and Vice Versa, p. 412)

First, peace activists face a dilemma ...  seems to be empirically inadequate.

The United States federal government should diversity mainstream rule of law reform in Libya. 

 Women face unique forms of violence in post conflict scenarios-mainstreaming gender is key to prosecute these crimes. 

 Grina, William and Mary JD candidate, 2011 

 (Eve, “Mainstreaming Gender in Rule of Law Initiatives in Post-Conflict Settings”, 17 Wm. & Mary J. Women & L. 435, http://scholarship.law.wm.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1313&context=wmjowl>>http://scholarship.law.wm.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1313&context=wmjowl, ldg) 

 Many argue that conditions for … central push of rule of law-based reform. 

 This is especially true in Libya-rape has been used as a weapon of war. 

 Cordell, Refugees International, 2011 

 (Kristen, “Libya: Protecting women from sexual violence”, 6-9,http://www.refugeesinternational.org/blog/libya-protecting-women-sexual-violence>>http://www.refugeesinternational.org/blog/libya-protecting-women-sexual-violence, DOA: 9-7-11, ldg) 

 Yesterday, the International … both in Libya and the world. 

 Dis-empowerment normalizes subordination of women. 

 Bridgman, Toronto University JD, 2007 

 (Tess, “THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WOMEN’S ACCESS TO JUSTICE AND DEVELOPMENT”,http://www.otago.ac.nz/law/oylr/2007/Bridgman.pdf>>http://www.otago.ac.nz/law/oylr/2007/Bridgman.pdf, ldg) 

 These barriers, relating to … development of the country. 

 The international community will initiate rule of law reform 

 AFP 2011 

 (“UN chief says ready to help Libya on policing, reform”, 9-6, http://www.lhrtimes.com/un-chief-says-ready-to-help-libya-on-policing-reform.html>>http://www.lhrtimes.com/un-chief-says-ready-to-help-libya-on-policing-reform.html, DOA: 9-7-11, ldg) 

 AUCKLAND: The United Nations …and physical infrastructure.” 

 These international interventions re-entrench patriarchy-they focus on establishing control for traditional elites. 

 Hamilton et al., Transitional Justice Institute, 2009 

 (Michael, “Gender and the Rule of Law in Transitional Societies”, 18 Minn. J. Int’l L. 380 (2009),http://www.law.umn.edu/uploads/ND/8H/ND8H4EoJ_7XUht035afPPA/Ni-Aolain-and-Hamilton-Final-Online-PDF-03.30.09.pdf>>http://www.law.umn.edu/uploads/ND/8H/ND8H4EoJ_7XUht035afPPA/Ni-Aolain-and-Hamilton-Final-Online-PDF-03.30.09.pdf, ldg) 

 Second, Cockburn and Zarkov have … the gender/rule of law interface. 

 Traditional rule of law programs hurt women—they emphasize neutrality which legitimizes inequality, re-entrench the public/private divide and eliminate the revolutionary potential of transitions. 

 Hamilton et al., Transitional Justice Institute, 2009 

 (Michael, “Gender and the Rule of Law in Transitional Societies”, 18 Minn. J. Int’l L. 380 (2009),http://www.law.umn.edu/uploads/ND/8H/ND8H4EoJ_7XUht035afPPA/Ni-Aolain-and-Hamilton-Final-Online-PDF-03.30.09.pdf>>http://www.law.umn.edu/uploads/ND/8H/ND8H4EoJ_7XUht035afPPA/Ni-Aolain-and-Hamilton-Final-Online-PDF-03.30.09.pdf, ldg) 

 Second, and following from its …regression in the transition. 

 The plan solves-it revamps the justice system under a gender lens. 

 Grina, William and Mary JD candidate, 2011 

 (Eve, “Mainstreaming Gender in Rule of Law Initiatives in Post-Conflict Settings”, 17 Wm. & Mary J. Women & L. 435, http://scholarship.law.wm.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1313&context=wmjowl>>http://scholarship.law.wm.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1313&context=wmjowl, ldg) 

 When organizations undertake rule of … and promote gender equality. 

 We don’t treat gender as a static, totalizing category-the plan recognizes that identity is created through a combination of factors and oppression is multi-faceted. 

 Hankivsky, Simon Fraser political science professor, 2005 

 (Olena, “Gender vs. Diversity Mainstreaming: A Preliminary Examination of the Role and Transformative Potential of Feminist Theory”, Canadian Journal of Political Science, Vol. 38, No. 4, JSTOR, ldg) 

 The key is not to abandon …implemented and evaluated. 

 AND- The institutions of the state are necessary in the fight against gendered violence- the alternative abandons women to endure intimate violence alone 

 Guzik, Bloomfield College assistant sociology professor, 2009 

 [Keith, Arresting Abuse: Mandatory Legal Interventions, Power, and Intimate Abusers, 187-188] 

 Of course, the major … the state is not in order. 

 Using the law provides a unique space to challenge masculine bias within the law 

 Lewis et al., Newcastle social sciences professor, 2001 

 (Ruth, “LAW’S PROGRESSIVE POTENTIAL: THE VALUE OF ENGAGEMENT WITH THE LAW FOR DOMESTIC VIOLENCE”, Social Legal Studies, March, SAGE, ldg) 

 While sceptical legal reformers …of the feminist movement. 

 Ignorance of material suffering provides no mechanism to counter the hegemony of the right –in the face of violence against women we must provide a choice for persons to access remedies for the suffering they have experienced 

 West, Georgetown law professor, 2006 

 (Robin, “Desperately Seeking a Moralist”,http://scholarship.law.georgetown.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1277&context=facpub, ldg) 

 So what is the loss in all of this? I … trivializing or denying their seriousness. 

 We don’t impose or erase culture-mainstreaming promotes equality within cultural norms-their critique stunts progressive change. 

 Grina, William and Mary JD candidate, 2011 

 (Eve, “Mainstreaming Gender in Rule of Law Initiatives in Post-Conflict Settings”, 17 Wm. & Mary J. Women & L. 435, http://scholarship.law.wm.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1313&context=wmjowl>>http://scholarship.law.wm.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1313&context=wmjowl, ldg) 

 Although feminist literature … the guise of preserving “tradition.” 159

Plan Text: The United States federal government should support democratic governance assistance to Tunisia.

Contention One – Credibility

And, the new Tunisian climate provides the opportunity to reverse past double standards – regaining legitimacy
Semaan, political analyst for Dar Al Hayat, 11
[George, October 31, 2011, “Will Tunisia’s Ennahda Present the Archetypal Experience?”, http://www.daralhayat.com/portalarticlendah/324486, 11/30/11, atl]

Regardless of Ennahda’s rhetoric, its … [humyn] rights and the economy.

Aid now doesn’t solve – engaging the Ennadha is key
McIreney, Executive Director of the project on Middle East Democracy, 11
[Stephen, November 8, 2011, “Islamist Victory in Tunisia Presents Opportunity for U.S. Engagement”, http://fikraforum.org/2011/11/islamist-victory-in-tunisia-represents-opportunity-for-u-s-engagement/, 11/29/11, atl]

Ahead of the elections, many … the U.S. cannot afford to miss. 

Relative power is declining and regaining legitimacy is the only way to ensure that the United States sustains power projection with stable international leverage and cooperation
Zakaria, professor of IR and political philosophy at Harvard and Columbia University, 11
[Fareed, “The Post-American World”, W. W. Norton & Company, 2011, 12/4/11, atl]

Legitimacy is power. The United … the world for so long. 

The alternative is great power nuclear war
Zhang et al., Carnegie Endowment researcher, 2011
(Yuhan, “America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry”, 1-22, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/, DOA: 9-21-11, ldg)

This does not necessarily mean … devoid of unrivalled US primacy.

Heg de-escalates conflict and provides the framing for international cooperation
Barnett, Naval War College Warfare Analysis & Research Department professor, 2011
(Thomas, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads”, 3-7, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads, DOA: 10-9-11, ldg)

Let me be more blunt: … in the geometry to come.

US needs to aggressively support the Arab Spring-anything less signals regional decline
Hamid, Brookings Doha center research director, 10-1-11
[Shadi, “What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring”, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/1001_obama_hamid.aspx, 2/23/12, atl]

Throughout the Arab spring, analysts … support for “stable,” repressive regimes. 

Influence in the Mid East lets the US manage Asia competition through cooperation-the alternative is China-India competition and decline of influence.
Alterman, CSIS Middle East Senior Fellow, 2011
[Jon, “The Middle East Turns East”, May, csis.org/files/publication/0511_MENC.pdf, 2/23/12, atl]

An increasing U.S. orientation toward the … position in the Middle East.

Cooperative US influence in the Mid-East solves stability—the alternative is Asian war.
Kemp, Nixon Center Regional Strategic programs director, 2010
[Georffrey, The East Moves West: India, China, and Asia’s Growing Presence in the Middle East, 233-5, 2/23/12, atl]

A third scenario, Asian Balance … and proliferation— particularly nuclear terrorism.

Goes nuclear
Landay, National Security and Intelligence Correspondent, 2000
[Jonathan S., “Top Administration Officials Warn Stakes for U.S. Are High in Asian Conflicts”, Knight Ridder/Tribune News Service, March 10, 2/23/12, atl]

Few if any experts think … , according to the Commerce Department.

Contention Two – TuNur

Lack of expertise has created an unstable vacuum in Tunisia now – governance training is key
Saibi, Senior Leadership and Strategy Consultant, 2/22
[Lotfi, President and Director at 21st Centrury Services & 4D-Leadership House, February 22, 2012, “THE FUTURE OF TUNISIA: IT IS A QUESTION OF LEADERSHIP”, http://lotfisaibi.wordpress.com/2012/02/21/the-future-of-tunisia-it-is-a-question-of-leadership/, 2/23/12, atl]

Tunisia is in the middle … that relies on foreign interference. 

This deters investors from renewable energy projects
Komendantova, Research Scholar for the Risk, Policy and Vulnerability Program, 11
[Nadejda, holds a PhD degree in environment economics from the State University of Engineering and Economics of Saint-Petersburg; Russia, a post-graduate degree from the Diplomatic Academy of Vienna and MA of economics and sociology from the State University of Saint-Petersburg, May 19, 2011, “Corruption blocks solar Sahara project”, http://blog.transparency.org/2011/05/19/corruption-blocks-solar-sahara-project/, 2/9/12, atl]

Renewable energy sources in North … to fight climate change unrealized.

Specifically, TuNur is looking to the new administration now–but there’s uncertainty
Stromsta, writer for Recharge News, 2/2
[Karl-Erik, February 2, 2012, “Tunisian renewables market is hotting up, says CSP developer”, http://www.rechargenews.com/energy/solar/article300811.ece, 2/9/12, atl]

The investment case for renewables … liberal governance in the region.

Aiding Tunisia creates a massive solar industry–spurs a global market
Norris, PhD in Globalization Studies, 12
[Vivian, Huffington Post writer and journalist, January 29, 2012, “Here Comes the Sun: Tunisia to Energize Europe”, http://moroccotomorrow.org/2012/01/29/here-comes-the-sun-tunisia-to-energize-europe/, 2/9/12, atl]

In the desert of Southern … millions of people is assured.

African leadership is key
Kaberuku, African Development Bank president, 11
[Donald, December 26, 2011, “Let Africa show the way on climate change”, http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/let-africa-show-the-way-on-climate-change-1.956807, 2/9/12, atl]

Arguably, the greatest calamities facing … have an impact on development.

Your defense doesn’t apply–Tunisia does it right
United Nations Environment Programme, 11
[“Solar Energy in Tunisia”, http://www.unep.org/greeneconomy/SuccessStories/SolarenergyinTunisia/tabid/29871/Default.aspx, 2/9/12, atl]

To reduce the country’s dependence … reducing dependency on fuel imports.

Two Impacts:

First is warming – solar power is key
Romm, senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, 08
[Joseph, holds a Ph.D. in physics from MIT, Oversees Climate Progress.org, April 14, 2008, “The technology that will save humanity”, http://www.salon.com/2008/04/14/solar_electric_thermal/, 2/9/12, atl]

Certainly we will need many … has a long and fascinating history.

Warming is real and anthropogenic-all credible evidence concludes and only adequate explanation.
Rahmstorf, Professor of Physics of the Oceans at Potsdam University, 2008
(Richard, “Anthropogenic Climate Change?” Global Warming: Looking Beyond Kyoto. Edited by Ernesto Zedillo, pg 46-48, ldg)

It is time to address … has to be considered minute. 

Warming runs away and causes extinction
Burkett 8 – Professor of Law University of Colorado Law School, 08
[Maxine, “Just Solutions to Climate Change: A Climate Justice Proposal for a Domestic Clean Development Mechanism,” 56 Buffalo L. Rev. 169, 2/23/12, atl]

The unparalleled scale of impact … and cope with its consequences.

Scenario Two is the Rainforests

TuNur is globally modeled and leads to Saharan renewables
Commodities Now, 1/24
[January 24, 2012, “Tunisian sun will light European homes by 2016”, http://www.commodities-now.com/reports/power-and-energy/9741-tunisian-sun-will-light-european-homes-by-2016.html, 2/13/12, atl]

In the sands of North … desert regions of the world."

That’s the critical internal link … rainforest preservation – Africa is key
Ettestol, President and Owner of the Environmental Turbine Technology development program, 07
[Gunnar, May 7, 2007, “Solar energy: The climate threat's counterforce”, http://www.ette.no/nowar/The_climate_threats_counterforce.html, 2/23/12, atl]

Sunny and arid regions of … the replacement of fossil energy. 

Rainforest protection sustains the hydrologic cycle
Anaruk, citing studies in the peer-reviewed journal Nature, 9
(Amy, freelance health and environmental writer, "The Importance of African Forests as Carbon Sinks," 3-21-9, www.celsias.com/article/importance-african-forests-carbon-sinks/, accessed 1-16-12, mss)

The Importance of African Forests as Carbon Sinks
It may be impossible to … metric tons of released CO2.

Extinction
Abreu et al, 5
(Francisco de Assis Matos de Abreu, André Montenegro Duarte, Mário Ramos Ribeiro, Ana Rosa Carriço de Lima and Wellington de Jesus Sousa. “The Hydrologic cycle: an open or closed system?” Revista Geográfica 137 (Jan-June 2005): p109)

This paper deals with the … with regard to global changes.

Contention Three - Solvency

Official US action is key to brand the plan and solvency
Lord, Vice President and Director of Studies at the Center for a New American Security, 09
[Dr. Kristin M., Congressional Testimony, “flag on the bag? Branding foreign assistance and the struggle against violent extremism,” http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/122356/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/f3771ca0-79ff-4846-be86-4c282167962d/en/Flag+on+the+Bag,+Branding+Foreign+Assistance+and+the+Struggle+Against+Violent+Extremism,+Kristin+Lord+HASC+Testimony.pdf, 2/4/12, atl]

It is also sustained by … opinion because of that assistance. 

Expanding transparency efforts are key to solve institutional change in Tunisia.
Sullivan, Ph.D., the Executive Director of the Center for International Private Enterprise, 2011
(John D, February 23, “Rethinking Development Assistance in the Middle East,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/policy-brief-series_sullivan.pdf, d/a 2-10-12, ads)

In a section highlighting the need … business, especially in public procurement.