Plan: The United States Federal Government should provide the democracy assistance that has been requested by the Syrian National Council of opposition groups, barring military assistance
Syria Aff – 1AC – Advantage 1: US Intervention
Violence in Syria escalating – opposition is militarizing
Rabil 1-3
[Robert G, associate professor of political science at Florida Atlantic University, “Why U.S. must step carefully in Syria,” January 3, 2012, http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/03/opinion/rabil-syria/index.html] ara
As it fights for its survival …ranks of the Syrian opposition.
Delays to aid opposition is eroding credibility and causes prolif
Gordon 8-20-11
[J.D. is a communications consultant to several Washington-D.C. think tanks and a retired Navy Commander who served as a Pentagon spokesman in the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 2005-2009. “Libya, Syria Show Obama in Way Over His Head” August 20, 2011, http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/08/20/libya-syria-show-obama-in-way-over-his-head/#ixzz1Vgk2QcQB] ara
With Syria, Mr. Obama … build up their own military arsenals.
We must assist BUT status quo intervention will be military
Dreyfuss 11
[Robert, Award winning independent journalist & Contributing Editor to the Nation, The Nation, “Applying the Libya 'Model' to Syria and Iran,” August 29, 2011, http://www.thenation.com/blog/163013/applying-libya-model-syria-and-iran?page=full] ara
Muammar Qaddafi is (pretty much) gone, and …, or Iranians, to be massacred.
US intervention ensures Israel is drawn in, collapses US leadership.
Zakheim 11
[Dov, former Undersecretary of Defense, The National Interest, “The Nightmare that is a U.S. Attack On Syria,” ,May 12, 2011, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-nightmare-us-attack-syria-5296]
But the price of yet … perceive to be out of control.
US leadership stops conflict in every region, keeps trade moving, stops terrorists, and prolif
Kagan 11
[Robert, contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, “The Price of Power”, January 24, 2011, Vol. 16, No. 18, http://www.weeklystandard.com/print/articles/price-power_533696.html] ara
Today the international situation … build their own nuclear weapons to resist it.
Syria Aff – 1AC – Advantage 2: Iran Heg
Assad is key to Iran regional hegemony
Rettig 9-2
[Jessica-Politics & Policy Reporter at U.S. News & World Report, Georgetown University, Universidad de Buenos Aires, “Iran Has Much to Lose if Syria's Assad Falls.” September 2, 2011, U.S. News and World Report. http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2011/09/02/iran-has-much-to-lose-if-syrias-assad-falls?PageNr=1] ara
The pressure on Syria's Bashar … a great plus for the United States and its friends."
Iranian hegemony destabilizes the region – US action in Syria key to check expansionism
Kahlili 11
[Reza, pseudonym for an ex-CIA spy who is a fellow with EMPact America and the author of “A Time to Betray,” about his double life in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, “KAHLILI: Luring Israel into war,” August 24, 2011 The Washington Times, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/aug/24/luring-israel-into-war/] ara
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah …in Tehran from checkmating the world.
Iran threat causes Saudis to host Pakistan nucs – only US security guarantees solves
Guzansky, Institute for National Security Studies, ’11
[Yoel, research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. He joined INSS after serving at Israel's National Security Council, “Tehran tests Saudis’ nerve on nuclear weapons,” 7-1, The Australian, http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/tehran-tests-saudis-nerve-on-nuclear-weapons/story-e6frg6ux-1226085108555, Gender Modified] ara
UNTIL recently it appeared that … intrusive International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring.
South-Asian nuclear instability would result.
Roberts, History Prof, Cambridge, ’11
[Andrew, Also: Royal Society of Literature Fellow, Jan. 2, “Iran’s Nuclear Domino Effect,” THE DAILY BEAST, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/01/02/irans-nuclear-weapons-could-lead-to-a-saudi-and-pakistan-alliance.html] ara
Where Edelman goes an important …South Asia significantly more dangerous.
That causes extinction- nuclear winter, ozone, climate, and ag
Richard, Discovery Green editor, 2010
[Michael Graham, "Nuclear Winter: Now Easier to Trigger than Ever," 1-19-10, www.treehugger.com/files/2010/01/nuclear-winter-easier-to-trigger-than-previously-thought-study.php, accessed 12-19-10, mss]
Regional Nuclear War Could Trigger … has a very high expected utility).
Syria Aff – 1AC – Advantage 3: Genocide
The Syrian people are experiencing the some of the worst treatment by the Assad regime.
Posner and Feltman 11
(Michael H., Asst Sect Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, Jeffery D., Asst Sect Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, “Statement Before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia”, Axis of Abuse: U.S. Human Rights Policy toward Iran and Syria: Part 1, July 27, 2011, http://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/rm/2011/169180.htm) ara
In Syria, a committed, peaceful … had lethal head, neck and chest wounds.
Syria has all of the warning signs of genocide – the government could be tipping to commit mass murder against its own people
Genocide Watch 11
[Genocide Watch, June 7, 2011, Coordinator of the International Alliance to End Genocide, “Genocide and Mass Atrocity Warning: Syria” http://www.genocidewatch.org/syria.html] ara
Since the beginning of March, the …could be the tipping point into mass
Genocide makes life and death meaningless
Card 3
[Claudia, philosophy professor at University of Wisconsin, “Genocide and Social Death,” Winter 2003, Hypatia, vol. 18, issue 1, ProjectMuse, http://www.armenews.com/IMG/pdf/GenocideandSocialDeath.pdf]
Specific to genocide is the … termination. This view, however, is controversial
Genocide will lead to the destruction of all people – outweighs all other impacts
Harff, professor of political science, 81
(Gur Harff, prof. @ Univ. of Berlin, Humanitarian Intervention as a Remedy for Genocide, p. 40-41)
One of the most enduring and … victim, genocide is a universal concern.
Syria Aff – 1AC – Advantage 4: Turkey
Syrian violence causes mass refugee flows into Turkey – tensions could erupt into violence at any time – conflict will draw in NATO, Iran, Russia and China into World War III.
Pakalert 11
[Pakalert Press, June 28, 2011 “Could We Actually See A War Between Syria And Turkey?”
http://www.pakalertpress.com/2011/06/28/could-we-actually-see-a-war-between-syria-and-turkey/] ara
In recent days, there have … does not erupt as a result.
Middle East war goes nuclear
Shibil Sidiqqi, Fellow, Centre for the Study of Global Power and Politics, 4-15-10
[Shibil, Fellow, Centre for the Study of Global Power and Politics, “Terrorism: The nuclear summit's 'straw man',” http://98.130.246.96/archive_articles_details.asp?articleid=1055&typeid=3] ara
However, the president's assessment … the largest global nuclear threat.
As a nuclear power the US has a moral obligation to avoid a nuclear war at all costs.
Walker 4
( William Walker, Professor of International Relations at the University of St Andrews, 2004, Adelph Paper 370, “Weapons of Mass Destruction and International Order”, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Oxford University Press, New York, P 22 ) gh
Why did the nuclear weapon … any state possessing the capability.
Syria Aff – 1AC – Solvency
U.S. assistance to Syria builds civil society – its key to avoid civil war and regional hegemons interference.
Al-Assad 8/10
[Ribal, Director of the Organization for Democracy and Freedom in Syria, “The struggle for Syria,” August 10, 2011. CNN’s Global Public Square Blog. http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/10/the-struggle-for-syria/] ara
As the violence in Syria mounts, the …for stability throughout the region.
U.S. action now is critical to stop Syria from devolving into a civil war
Abrams 8/2
Elliott Abrams, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, handled Middle East affairs at the National Security Council from 2001 to 2009. “Preventing Civil War in Syria”. August 2, 2011. The Wall Street Journal. http://www.cfr.org/syria/preventing-civil-war-syria/p25576
Syria remains rocked by antiregime … cronies from the rest of the Alawite community.
Spurs outside action and transforms US policy—spills over to further anti-Assad actions
Badran 11
Tony Badran, Research Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) in DC, “Obama Can Stop the Killing in Syria,” June 14, 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/06/14/obama_can_stop_the_killing_in_syria?page=0,2
The administration could then induce … display. So what are they waiting for?
The U.S. is uniquely key – Obama’s heritage gives him power to promote democracy other agents can’t access
Gerecht and Dubowitz 11
[Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former CIA officer, is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the author of “The Wave: Man, God, and the Ballot Box in the Middle East.” Mark Dubowitz is the executive director of FDD, where he heads projects on sanctions and the use of technology to encourage democratic change. “Obama, American Liberator?” September 1, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/obama-american liberator/2011/09/01/gIQA3e5HvJ_story.html] ara
Libya was not a robust showing of …It may do the same for Barack Obama.
Assad will fall - only question is how the U.S. can shape the transition and post-Assad government.
Kessler and Doran 8/16
Oren Kessler and Michael S. Doran, visiting professor at the Robert F. Wagner Graduate School for Public Service at New York University, Ph.D. in History, Princeton University, An expert on the international politics of the Middle East. “'Iran, not peace process, should drive US policy on Syria'”. Jerusalem Post. 8/16/2011. http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=234031
“The result is that we have … to convince Assad to go, and to go soon.”
And US should set up a political alternative that protects minorities – key to Assad collapse
Al Toraifi 11,
[Adel, Al Arabiya, Editor-in-Chief of Al Majalla, the leading Arab magazine, specialist on Saudi foreign policy, PhD candidate at the London School of Economics and Political Science “Adel Al Toraifi: Syria on the road of chaos,” August 12, 2011, http://english.alarabiya.net/views/2011/08/12/161931.html] ara
If the international community … of the [Baathist] party and sectarian [elements].
Only the U.S. can assist the Syrian transition – the plan will build leverage over time.
Young 11
[Michael, Opinion Page Editor, Lebanon Daily Star,“An Obama road map to change in Syria,” 5-19-11, Lebanon Daily Star, http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Columnist/2011/May-19/An-Obama-road-map-to-change-in-Syria.ashx#axzz1hsWqY7M5] ara
We’ve heard Obama administration officials … States can take such measures.
