Advantage One --- Egypt
---The United States is increasing democracy assistance to all parties in Egypt including the Muslim Brotherhood --- No unique links.
Allen November 4th 2011
Michael, Special Assistant for Government Relations and Public Affairs at the National Endowment for Democracy, US will be ‘satisfied’ if Islamists win Egypt’s election, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/11/us-will-be-satisfied-if-islamists-win-egypts-election/
The United States would be “satisfied”...parties show up; sometimes they don’t
Farr 2011
Thomas F., former American diplomat, is Visiting Associate Professor of Religion and World Affairs in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and a Senior Fellow at the Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, & World Affairs at Georgetown University. He also chairs the Witherspoon Institute’s task force on International Religious Freedom, Preventing Another Attack: International Religious Freedom, September 23rd, http://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2011/09/4008
Religious freedom, the evidence shows...“engaging Islam,”
Shah 2011
Timothy, Associate Director of the Religious Freedom Project at the Berkley Center For Religion, Peace, and World Affairs and Visiting Assistant Professor in the Government Department, Georgetown University, A Fully Free Egypt, 6/3, http://berkleycenter.georgetown.edu/essays/timothy-samuel-shah-on-a-fully-free-egypt
There will be no moving toward a ...convictions in the public square.
---Integrating religious freedom into democracy assistance programs reverses those perceptions.
Farr & Hoover 2009
Thomas F., visiting associate professor of religion and international affairs at Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service. He also directs the Religion and U.S. Foreign Policy Program at the Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs, where he is a senior fellow, Dennis R., vice president for research and publications at the Institute for Global Engagement (IGE). He also directs IGE’s Center on Faith & International Affairs and is the founding editor of The Review of Faith & International Affairs, The Future of U.S. International Religious Freedom Policy, https://www.globalengage.org/attachments/829_IRFpolicyreport_final_lowres.pdf
Moreover, there is a widespread ...this in any systematic way
---Generates Egyptian support for American democracy assistance --- Overcomes alternate causalities.
Mogahed 2011
Dalia, Senior Analyst and Executive Director, Abu Dhabi Gallup Center and Gallup Center for Muslim Studies, U.S. Must Understand the Constructive Role of Faith in Egypt's Democratic Aspirations, February 1st, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dalia-mogahed/us-must-understand-the-co_b_816915.html
The majority of Egyptians want ...They seek the rule of law.
---Changing U.S. stance on religious freedom assistance is the defining issue for reducing religious violence.
Inboden 2011
William, Assistant Professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs and Distinguished Scholar at the Strauss Center for International Security and Law at the University of Texas-Austin & Non-Resident Fellow with the German Marshall Fund of the United States, US Religious Freedom Policy in the New Egypt, 6/3, http://berkleycenter.georgetown.edu/essays/william-inboden-on-us-religious-freedom-policy-in-the-new-egypt
In Egypt one of these foremost ...for good or for ill.
Scenario One --- Israeli War
---Exclusive focus on rhetorical condemnation of sectarian violence actively exacerbates religious persecution.
Farr 2010
Thomas, Professor of Religion and International Affairs, Georgetown's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, A Freedom Deferred, America: The National Catholic Weekly, http://www.americamagazine.org/content/article.cfm?article_id=12390
a purely antipersecution strategy ...will enhance international peace.
---Religious violence in Egypt destabilizes the region.
Bandow 2011
Doug, senior fellow at the Cato Institute and the senior fellow in international religious persecution at the Institute on Religion and Public Policy, Revolution no boon to the Copts, September 5th, http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/eo20110905db.html
In Egypt the fall of Hosni Mubarak ...rest of the Middle East.
---Specifically, Egyptian religious violence escalates tensions and emboldens Turkey & Hamas to provoke a military confrontation with Israel.
Bishop 2011
Julie, Deputy Leader of the Opposition in Australia, Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade and a board member of the West Coast Eagles, Egyptian violence has global implications, October 12th, http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/blogs/the-bishops-gambit/egyptian-violence-has-global-implications-20111012-1ljr2.html
The outbreak of sectarian violence ...far beyond their immediate borders
---Israeli perception of encirclement & regional resource disputes make the probability for escalation high.
Cagaptay 2011
Soner, Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and is the co-author, with Scott Carpenter, ofRegenerating the U.S.-Turkey Partnership, Could Israel and Turkey go to war? September 8th, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/08/cagaptay-israel-turkey-conflict/
The Arab Spring and recent ...pour oil on the political flames
---Goes nuclear.
Chadwick 2011
Bruce P., PhD, CFA, is principal at Chadwick Global Research and Consulting, an independent consulting firm specializing in macro strategy, including quantitative, emerging market, and SRI research. Worldview: Summer Perspectives on the Arab Spring New York Society of Security Analysts, 7/6, http:// post.nyssa.org/nyssa-news/2011/07/summer-perspectives-on-the-arab-spring.html
The United States and Israel can only ...hair-trigger will be considerable.
---Israel will respond by turning the world into a parking lot.
Morgan 2009
Dennis Ray, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin Campus, World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race, Futures 41, 683–693
if Israel were to suffer a nuclear attack...could last as long as a 100 years
Scenario Two --- Military Purges
---Religious violence tanks the Egyptian military’s domestic & international authority and ends the U.S./Egyptian partnership.
Trager 2011
Eric, The Washington Institute's Ira Weiner fellow, is a doctoral candidate in political science at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is writing his dissertation on Egyptian opposition parties, Action by Egypt's Military Rulers against Copts Endangers Transition, October 17th, http://www.sapulse.com/new_comments.php?id=3571_0_1_0_M13
The use of violence by Egypt's military ...against Egypt's Coptic Christians.
---This is the only scenario for a collapse of the U.S.-Egyptian military relationship.
Dunne 2011
Scholar-Middle East Institute and former staff member of the U.S. National Security Council, 2/12, http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/middleeast/2011/02/12/after-mubarak/
Egypt depends on the United States for ...transition to democracy
---Protests over religious violence escalate to civil/military confrontation & Iranian style military purges.
Abaza 2011
Khairi, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former senior official in Egypt's secular liberal Wafd Party, Egypt's Army is failing to build consensus for democracy, CNN, October 22nd, http://www.cnn.com/2011/10/22/opinion/abaza-egypt-government/
Egypt's position is precarious enough ...itself in the same direction.
---Tens of thousands of military personnel will be executed.
Wood 2011
David, Winner of the Gerald Ford Prize for Distinguished Reporting on National Defense, lectured at the Marine Staff College, the Joint Forces Staff College and the Army's Eisenhower Fellows conference, “At Risk in Egypt's Turmoil: U.S. Military Access to the Middle East”, 2/5/11 http://www.cnas.org/node/5654
In all of these worse-case scenarios...a cautionary tale.'
---Causes Egypt nuclear weapons development and exports sparking an arms race.
Windrem 2011
Robert, Senior investigative produce for NBC News, Concerns grow over Egypt's WMD research, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41452744/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/t/concerns-grow-over-egypts-wmd-research/#.TrsDCvQr230
With Egypt in revolt ...exporting more weapons technology.
---Results in worldwide middle power nuclear weapons acquisition.
Peña 2007
Charles V., Senior Fellow at the Independent Institute’s Center on Peace and Liberty, Nuclear Nonproliferation in the Post-9/11 World, Independent Policy Report, http://www.independent.org/pdf/policy_reports/2007-06-12-nuclear.pdf
the possibility cannot be ignored...option back on the agenda
---Global nuclear war.
Taylor 2008
Theodore B.-, Fellow of the American Physical Society - Deputy Director of the Defense Nuclear Agency, Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, http://wwwee.stanford.edu/~hellman/Breakthrough/book/chapters/taylor.html
Nuclear proliferation - be it among ...a global nuclear war.
Advantage Two --- International Religious Freedom
—Two internal links—
(1.) “Freedom of worship” rhetoric has tanked American credibility on religious freedom diplomacy.
Liaugminas 2010
Sheila, Emmy award-winning Chicago-based journalist, Serious threat to religious freedom? Sheila Reports, http://www.mercatornet.com/sheila_liaugminas/view/7528
when President Obama used the phrase “freedom of worship”...around the world.
Weigel 2011
George, distinguished senior fellow of the Ethics and Public Policy Center where he holds the William E. Simon chair in Catholic Studies, Egypt’s Coptic Christians Deserve a Word from President Obama, National Review Online, http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/258498/egypts-coptic-christians-deserve-word-president-obama-george-weigel
While the current upheaval in Egypt ...defend religious freedom in full.
(2.) Integrating religious freedom into Egyptian political efforts provides US diplomats with the religious vocabulary necessary to revitalize the American model.
Farr 2008
Thomas, "Diplomacy in an Age of Faith: Religious Freedom and National Security," Foreign Affairs, March/April, http://berkleycenter.georgetown.edu/publications/diplomacy-in-an-age-of-faith-religious-freedom-and-national-security
extremism and terrorism can ...establishment blinded by secularism.
Patterson et. al. 2011
Eric, Associate Director of the Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs and has a visiting appointment in the Department of Government at Georgetown University, Transcending Traditional U.S. Foreign Policy: Track Two Diplomacy and the Challenge of Global Religious Diversity, http://repository.berkleycenter.georgetown.edu/TrackTwoDiplomacy.pdf
Among all the Western nations...possibility of security threats
---Egypt is key --- Regional prominence makes it an important litmus test.
Halim 2007
Cameel, Coptic Assembly of America Chairman, Testimony of Cameel Halim Coalition for Defense of Human Rights Conference, http://www.copticassembly.com/showart.php?main_id=233
The only one who can have ...affecting the whole world’s security
---Revitalized religious freedom diplomacy preserves global security --- Religion defines every major scenario for conflict & transnational issue --- All your impacts are belong to us.
Farr 2009
Thomas F., Professor of Religion and International Affairs, Georgetown's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service. B.A., Mercer University; Ph.D., University of North Carolina, THE WIDOW'S TORMENT: INTERNATIONAL RELIGIOUS FREEDOM AND AMERICAN NATIONAL SECURITY IN THE 21ST CENTURY, 57 Drake L. Rev. 851
systemic religious persecution, especially in highly religious societies, indicates ... and from HIV/AIDS to economic globalization
---Lack of religious freedom is the root of the world’s most violent conflicts.
Haynes 2009
Charles C., senior scholar at the First Amendment Center, Around the globe, religious freedom under assault, 5/16, http://tucsoncitizen.com/morgue/2009/05/16/116697-around-the-globe-religious-freedom-under-assault/
At a time when religious ... religious freedom more seriously
---Religion makes these uniquely dangerous --- Five reasons.
Toft, Philpott & Shah 2011
Monica Duffy, Daniel, Timothy Samuel, God’s Century: Resurgent Religion and Global Politics, Pg 150
The basic facts concerning religious civil wars reveal some ... have equally “glocalized” dimensions.
---Our impact is systemic --- Hundreds of millions risk death because of their faith every day.
Grieboski 2011
Joseph K., founder of the Institute on Religion and Public Policy. Huffington Post: “It is Time to Prioritize Religious Freedom in U.S. Policy” June 8 2011 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joseph-k-grieboski/it-is-time-to-prioritize-_b_872758.html
In the twentieth century alone...choose to pray or not to pray.
---Specifically, lack of religious freedom collapses Tajikistan.
Quinn & Paxton 2011
Andrew, Robin, Clinton disfavours efforts to crackdown on religious freedom, Financial Express, http://www.thefinancialexpress-bd.com/more.php?date=2011-10-24&news_id=153850
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned Tajikistan ...stability and security of the country."
---Tajikistan instability draws in regional powers & escalates to nuclear war.
Richter 1994
Anthony H., Special Advisor to the President of the Soros Foundations Before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Subcommittee on Europe and the Middle East, 9/22, Prepared Testimony, Federal News Service, http://www.archive.org/stream/developmentsinta00unit/developmentsinta00unit_djvu.txt
Tajikistan affects an entire region...weapons of mass destruction.
Pusateri 2010
David P., managing partner at the Pittsburgh Office of McGuireWoods, LLP. He is also a member of the ABA AIDS Coordinating Committee, Faith-Based Organizations and the HIV/AIDS Pandemic, Human Rights, Spring, Vol. 37, No. 2, http://www.americanbar.org/publications/human_rights_magazine_home/irr_hr_spring10_pusateri.html
freedom of religion and ...affect the severity of the disease.
---Extinction.
Muchiri 2000
Michael Kibaara, Staff Member at Ministry of Education in Nairobi, “Will Annan finally put out Africa’s fires?” Jakarta Post, March 6, https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2000/03/06/will-annan-finally-put-out-africa039s-fires.html
AIDS is the leading killer ...and maybe the human race.
---Lack of religious freedom inevitably triggers nuclear war between Indian & Pakistan.
Bonney 2004
Richard, Director of the Institute for the study of Indo-Pakistan relations, University of Leicester, Religious Radicalism and Nuclear Confrontation in South Asia, www.policyarchitects.org/pdf/nuclear%20south%20asia.pdf
in the area of religious radicalism ...nuclear danger in its own right.
---Even a limited exchange will blot out the sun & kill everything.
Robock & Toon 2010
Alan, Professor II Department of Environmental Sciences School of Environmental and Biological Sciences @ Rutgers University, Owen Brian, professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and a fellow at the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) @ the University of Colorado, South Asian Threat? Local Nuclear War = Global Suffering, Scientific America, January, http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=local-nuclear-war
Nuclear bombs dropped ...mass starvation could follow