***NED
US Action Key
Captures US signal and they’ll say yes – they take earmarked funding from international donors.
Axworthy et al ‘5
Thomas S. Axworthy, David Donova, Leslie Campbell. Institute For Research on Public Policy. May 2005. http://www.irpp.org/wp/archive/wp2005-02d.pdf
National Endowment for Democracy (NED) Overview
AND
labour, and private sector development in Iraq.
NED sends a signal of US involvement
Giraldi ‘11
Philip Giraldi, former CIA counter-terrorism specialist and military intelligence officer who served for 18 years, executive director of the Council for National Interest. 3/3/2011. “Uncle NED Comes Calling.” http://original.antiwar.com/giraldi/2011/03/02/uncle-ned-comes-calling/)
Neoconservative Ken Timmerman has identified the core NED
AND
not say, nor does the NED site.
The CP solves U.S. signal – perceived as most important visible signal of U.S. commitment.
Melia ‘5
Thomas, Institute for the Study of Diplomacy Walsh School of Foreign Service Georgetown University, “The Democracy Bureaucracy: The Infrastructure of American Democracy Promotion” A discussion paper prepared for the Princeton Project on National Security Working Group on Global Institutions and Foreign Policy Infrastructure, September, http://www.princeton.edu/~ppns/papers/democracy_bureaucracy.pdf
Arguably the most important and visible facet of
AND
initiatives to promote political democracy around the world.
***Solvency
2NC Doesn’t Solve Stability
Gengler 12/8
Justin Gengler is a Gulf politics scholar who carried out the first-ever mass political survey of Bahraini citizens, PhD in Political Science University of Michigan. “Gulf apart - Bahrain faces political and sectarian divide”. Jane’s Intelligence Review. December 8, 2011.
The prospects for qualitative improvements in Bahrain's underlying
AND
international image to force the government to negotiate.
Pro-reform members of the government will fail to displace hard-liners – the conservatives maintain major influence and are backed by the Saudis – and the PM controls the security sector – any reforms would be cosmetic and would not solve – that's Gengler and Carlstrom
And, opposition from Conservatives, ordinary Sunnis, and Saudis to constitutional changes cannot be overcome.
Gengler 12/8
Justin Gengler is a Gulf politics scholar who carried out the first-ever mass political survey of Bahraini citizens, PhD in Political Science University of Michigan. “Gulf apart - Bahrain faces political and sectarian divide”. Jane’s Intelligence Review. December 8, 2011.
In this scenario, the regime would agree
AND
, this opposition is unlikely to be overcome.
2NC Sunnis Reject
Gengler 2/20
Justin Gengler is a Gulf politics scholar who carried out the first-ever mass political survey of Bahraini citizens, PhD in Political Science University of Michigan. “The Anti-National Dialogue”. February 20, 2012. http://bahrainipolitics.blogspot.com/2012/02/anti-national-dialogue.html
As obvious and basic as this question is
AND
was not such a great bargain after all.
***Fleet
Heg Decline
The Heg debate is OVER- U.S. decline is not only inevitable, it has arrived. The U.S. must accept China’s ascendancy.
Christopher Layne 2012 (is Robert M. Gates Chair in Intelligence and National Security at the George Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University; ISQ* peer reviewed: ISI Journal Citation Reports® Ranking: 2010: International Relations: 10 / 73; Political Science: 18 / 139 Impact Factor: 1.523) “This Time It's Real: The End of Unipolarity and the Pax Americana” International Studies Quarterly, 1-11
The Cold War's end stifled the burgeoning late
AND
preoccupation during the next ten to fifteen years.
U.S. Unipolarity has already ended
Christopher Layne 2012 (is Robert M. Gates Chair in Intelligence and National Security at the George Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University; ISQ* peer reviewed: ISI Journal Citation Reports® Ranking: 2010: International Relations: 10 / 73; Political Science: 18 / 139 Impact Factor: 1.523) “This Time It's Real: The End of Unipolarity and the Pax Americana” International Studies Quarterly, 1-11
Before the Great Recession's foreshow in the fall
AND
the US hegemony on which it was based.
***Econ
Stability Alt Cause
ISRAEL OR US ATTACK ON IRAN WILL DRAW IN ENTIRE REGION, INCLUDING BAHRAIN
DIETZ, 3-26-12 David, America must not buy into Israel’s Warmongering” PolicyMic, http://www.policymic.com/articles/5286/war-with-iran-a-mistake-america-must-not-buy-into-israel-s-warmongering)
Even Iran's theocratic leadership has been challenged in
AND
. We've known that since 1984 when Senator Alan
2nc Will Strike
Top US officials concur
Star Ledger 3-6
“Military response to Iran threat would increase danger,” http://blog.nj.com/njv_editorial_page/2012/03/military_response_to_iran_thre.html
The idea that the United States or Israel
AND
the aid or consent of the United States.
It’s inevitable and within a year
Blomfield 3-3
Adrian, “Israel delivers ultimatum to Barack Obama on Iran's nuclear plans,” The Telegraph, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/9121433/Israel-delivers-ultimatum-to-Barack-Obama-on-Irans-nuclear-plans.html
The real urgency comes from the fact that
AND
than four million have already been doled out.
Momentum
Perry 3-28
Mark, “Israel’s Secret Staging Ground,” Foreign Policy, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/03/28/israel_s_secret_staging_ground?page=full
In 2009, the deputy chief of mission
AND
as with the Azeris, the sources said.
Diversification
Your evidence concludes the banking sector is resilient in the Middle East
Islamic Globe 11—Bahrain on the brink, Monday, 28 February 2011
http://www.theislamicglobe.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=63:bahrain-on-the-brink-&catid=9:article&Itemid=53
The self-imposed silence from the Islamic
AND
finance centres, such as Qatar or Kuwait.”
Diversification is unnecessary – Chinese investment – your author
MFR 11
MENA Fund Review, bi-monthly print and online publication covering Middle East and North african asset management industries, August 4th, "The Emerging New Order", 2011, http://www.menafundreview.com/the-emerging-new-order/
China and India are the most important drivers
AND
of the GCC as primarily a logistics hub.”
GCC diversification fails – no gas supplies and no clear plan
MFR 11
MENA Fund Review, bi-monthly print and online publication covering Middle East and North african asset management industries, August 4th, "The Emerging New Order", 2011, http://www.menafundreview.com/the-emerging-new-order/
The risk to this strategy of moving into
AND
adding to the financial burden of the Gulf.”
1NR
Russia
Russian expansion and aggression is unlikely.
Laqueur ’10 – Director of the Wiener Library Institute of Contemporary History
Waliter, Director of the Wiener Library Institute of Contemporary History, in London, and Chair of the International Research Council at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Moscow's Modernization Dilemma: Is Russia Charting a New Foreign Policy?, Nov/Dec Foreign Affairs, Proquest
How far will the current foreign policy go
AND
Western capital and Western technological know-how.
Russia’s at its weakest point in history- can’t power project
Belkovsky ‘9
Stanislav Belkovsky, founder and director of the National Strategy Institute, a Moscow-based NGO and thinktank. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jul/03/russia-barack-obama-medvedev-putin]
How to handle Russia/July 3
Over the past 90 years, Russia has
AND
Pushkin's phrase, through senseless and ruthless riots.
2NC Econ Mod.
Cyber attack will crush the economy—experts
Spence 11
Katie, staff writer for Motley Fool, one of the leading finance websites, Cyber Attacks Capable of Crashing the U.S. Economy? http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/11/14/cyber-attacks-capable-of-crashing-the-us-economy.aspx
Recent reports of the computers used to pilot
AND
laughing matter. So what can be done?
Cyber attack would be devastating to the US economy
Bloomberg 1/30
Cybersecurity Disaster Seen in U.S. Survey Citing Spending Gaps http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-31/cybersecurity-disaster-seen-in-u-s-survey-citing-spending-gaps.html
Companies including utilities, banks and phone carriers
AND
up one day and the lights won’t work.”
Cyber-security key to safeguard against attacks which destroys the economy
Rash 2/18
(Wayne, “Cybersecurity Act Gives Feds Power to Protect Infrastructure”, CMR)
The Cybersecurity Act of 2012 would give the
AND
said they may introduce their own cybersecurity bill.
Economic might key to hegemony
Mead in ‘4
Walter Russell, senior fellow in U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, America’s Sticky Power, Foreign Policy, EBSCO
The United States' global economic might is therefore
AND
S. foreign policy in 2004 and beyond.
AT Tunisia
Needs to go through congress still – plan faster, proves the link
AFP 3/29--Associated Free Press, US to provide $100 million to Tunisia, 2012, www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hEu6OAJ6GKNrPCUlfHQ2AreDbt1w?docId=CNG.986cfcc24d5cff1f983c8f37ea3af555.61
WASHINGTON — The United States said Thursday it
AND
voiced alarm over Islamism in the Arab world.
Oil thumpers
Oil subsidies The call was just election posturing
Hughes 3/29
Obama seeks end to oil subsidies; Congress says no, http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/article/obama-seeks-end-oil-subsidies-congress-says-no/454111
President Obama used the bully pulpit of the
AND
prices averaging about $4 a gallon nationwide.
Obama is winning the energy issues
National Journal Daily 3/6
Insiders: Obama Winning Energy-Messaging War, Factiva
Who is winning the messaging war on energy
AND
the President has little power to adjust them.”
At: Bottom of the Docket
1. Congress doesn’t have a docket—New legislation can go right to the top of the agenda—otherwise they could never act in an emergency
Kraljik 11
Dave, Voteacracy Understanding Congress Part 3 of 7: How are laws are made
http://www.votetocracy.com/blog/detail/understanding-congress-part-3-of-7:-how-are-laws-are-made.html
The business of the Senate (bills and
AND
time shall be suspended, but not displaced.
2NC Will Pass
Will pass but will be close
Reuters 3/27
U.S. House Republicans push info-sharing cyber bill, Factiva
With members of both parties jockeying for position
AND
prompt electric utilities to ward off hacking intrusions.
Will pass
IP Network Policy Report 3/26
REP. TERRY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PROSPECTS FOR 'STREAMLINED' CYBERSECURITY BILL, Factiva
House Republicans hope to pass cybersecurity legislation this
AND
because we're too vulnerable now to potential attack."
TOA Will pass—momentum –comes to the floor in April
IP Network Policy Report 3/12
ACTION ON CYBER BILLS SHIFTING TO HOUSE, Factiva
Following introduction of wider-ranging cybersecurity bills
AND
bills could be "overwhelming" to legislators.
Now key Will pass soon—compromise is coming between Lieberman and McCain
Warren’s Washington Internet Daily 3/21
Senate Cybersecurity Floor Debate to Begin in April, Lieberman Says, Factiva
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-
AND
from enemy attack and theft." -- Bryce Baschuk
2NC AT: Dickinson
Political capital theory is true – newest data proves that presidents have significant legislative influence
-conventional wisdom underestimates political capital theory
Beckman 10 – Professor of Political Science
Matthew N. Beckman, Professor of Political Science @ UC-Irvine, 2010, “Pushing the Agenda: Presidential Leadership in U.S. Lawmaking, 1953-2004,” pg. 2-3
Developing presidential coalition building as a generalizable class
AND
, and, to date, greatly underestimated.
AT Plan’s an XO
Executive action causes massive Republican backlash.
Clark 9/4
Lesley Clark, Reporter for McClatchy Newspapers. McClatchy. September 4, 2011. “Obama can't create many jobs without Congress' help, analysts say”.
http://www.kansascity.com/2011/09/04/3120221/obama-cant-create-many-jobs-without.html.
But Republicans in Congress are dead set against
AND
uphill climb, if not a slammed door.
The controversy of the program determines whether or not the counterplan draws criticism- still links to politics
Cox and Rodriguez ‘9
Adam Cox and Cristina Rodriguez, Assistant Professor of Law at NYU Law, Professor of Law at NYU Law, “The President and Immigration Law,” 2009, Yale Law Journal
One might suspect that the Bracero program came
AND
INS opened the border for a weekend.72
Executive orders create a lightning rod on the whitehouse—cp links to politics
Cooper 97
Phillip, Prof of Public Administration @ Portland State, Nov 97, “Power tools for an effective and
responsible presidency” Administration and Society, Vol. 29, p. Proquest
Interestingly enough, the effort to avoid opposition
AND
with OIRA provides a dramatic case in point.
PC Key
Obama pushing Congress to compromise now- used Wednesday simulation to stress cooperation, and urgency
Montalbano 3-8
Elizabeth, Information Week, Feds Simulate Crippling Cybersecurity Attack On NYC Electricity,
U.S. senators Wednesday participated in
AND
growing and increasingly sophisticated threat," she said.
Dickinson is wrong - Even if pundits exaggerate the president’s influence, it still is salient
Beckman 10 – Professor of Political Science
Matthew N. Beckman, Professor of Political Science @ UC-Irvine, 2010, “Pushing the Agenda: Presidential Leadership in U.S. Lawmaking, 1953-2004,” pg. 17
Even though Washington correspondents surely overestimate a sitting
AND
to help build winning coalitions on Capitol Hill.