Libya AC Backstopping Case Turn2AC T – Governance

We meet – provide civil society assistance.

We meet – plan says ‘democratic governance’, even if they win not all of good governance is democracy assistance the plan would be.

Phillips and Mitchell ‘8

David L. Phillips is a project director of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy and currently a visiting scholar at Columbia University’s Center for the Study of Human Rights, and Lincoln A. Mitchell is the Arnold A. Saltzman Assistant Professor in the Practice of International Politics at Columbia University’s School of International and Political Affairs. “Enhancing Democracy Assistance”. January 2008. www.acus.org/files/.../Enhancing%20Democracy%20Assistance.pdf

This report offers recommendations to hone proven approaches 

AND 

report offers context-specific recommendations for each.

Democracy assistance is all aid for the primary purpose of democracy – three categories: Political Process, Governing Institutions, and Civil Society.

Carothers ‘2k

Thomas Carothers, he vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is the founder and director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program and leading authority on democracy promotion and democratization worldwide as well as an expert on U.S. foreign policy. “Taking stock of democracy assistance”, in: M. Cox, G. J. Ikenberry & T. Inoguchi, (Eds) American Democracy Promotion. Impulses, Strategies, and Impacts. 2000. Questia. P.188

The term 'democracy assistance' is sometimes used broadly 

AND 

seminars on democracy, and educational exchange programmes.

Prefer out interp

A) Their interp overlimits and excludes post-Conflict states and authoritarian states with no chance of political reform or elections like Libya, Syria, and Bahrain, which is half of the topic and destroys the value and use of democracy assistance for peace-building which internal link turns their precision arguments.

Lappin ‘10

Richard Lappin. “The Unique Challenges of Post-Conflict Democracy Assistance”. 2010. Peace Review: A Journal of Social Justice, 22:178–183. EBSCO Host. 

On a purely practical level, post-

AND 

those dedicated to the fostering of sustainable peace.

B) Their precision and bluring arguments are inevitable – either their only focus on political process such as election and political parties which makes the topic infinitely small or they include civil society which makes their bluring argument inevitable.

Carothers ‘10

Thomas Carothers vice president for studies at Carnegie, a visiting faculty member at Oxford University, Central European University, and the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, AB from Harvard, M.SC London School of Economics and JD Harvard, and has written extensively on democratic issues. “Democracy Aid Enters the Socioeconomic Domain”. Presented at the Democracy and Development Workshop. March 24, 2010. www.sais-jhu.edu/centers/schwartzforum/pdf/carotherspaper.pdf

A second substantive broadening of democracy aid in 

AND 

of the developmentalists’ approach to supporting governance reforms.

Solvency

Studies prove U.S. democracy assistance solves civil conflict

Savun and Tirone ‘11

Burcu Savun is Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh,  Daniel C. Tirone is a Ph.D. Candidate in the Department of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh, “ Foreign Aid, Democratization, and Civil Conflict: How Does Democracy Aid Affect Civil Conflict”. American Journal of Political Science. Volume 55, Issue 2, pages 233–246, April 2011.

Scholars of intrastate conflict have shown that credible 

AND 

commitment problems during the early phases of democratization. 

Solves

Finkel et al 7 – Professor of Political Science @ Pitt

David, "The Effects of US Foreign Assistance on Democracy Building," http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/democracy_and_governance/publications/pdfs/impact_of_democracy_assistance.pdf

This study attempts to determine the impact of 

AND 

by USAlD's democracy assistance programs be appropriately evaluated.

2AC Democratic PiC

Libyans are clamoring for more U.S. engagement now.

Pack and Barfi February ‘12

Jason Pack, president of Libya-Analysis.com, has worked in Tripoli and Washington on promoting commercial and diplomatic relations between the United States and Libya. His articles have appeared in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy, and the Guardian, and Barak Barfi is a research fellow with the New America Foundation, specializing in Arab and Islamic affairs. “In War’s Wake: The Struggle for Post-Qadhafi Libya”. February 2012. The Washington Institute. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus118.pdf

The United States played a supportive role in 

AND 

engagement now that the fighting is over.96

USAID governance aid is inherently perceived in conjunction with democracy, which makes the impact inevitable.

Carothers and Gramont ‘11

Thomas Carothers, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is the founder and director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program and Diane de Gramont, a research assistant in the Carnegie Democracy and Rule of Law Program. November 2011. “Aiding Governance in Developing Countries: Progress Amid Uncertainties”. Carnegie Endowment. http://carnegieendowment.org/files/aiding_governance.pdf

Other aid organizations specifically connect their governance programs 

AND 

civil society groups that the host government disfavors.

They don’t provide support outside of NTC – means they don’t solve the aff.

Pack and Barfi February ‘12

Jason Pack, president of Libya-Analysis.com, has worked in Tripoli and Washington on promoting commercial and diplomatic relations between the United States and Libya. His articles have appeared in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy, and the Guardian, and Barak Barfi is a research fellow with the New America Foundation, specializing in Arab and Islamic affairs. “In War’s Wake: The Struggle for Post-Qadhafi Libya”. February 2012. The Washington Institute. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus118.pdf

Encourage grassroots democracy. USAID, the embassy’s 

AND 

, establishing connections between them and the center.

No backlash to the plan – empirics prove assistance is effective

Haas ‘11 

Lawrence J. Haas, Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the American Foreign Policy Council. 9/8/2011. “The stakes are far too high for America to sit on the sidelines”. http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/09/08/v-print/123482/the-stakes-are-far-too-high-for.html

America cannot dictate the future of this economically 

AND 

and the world’s, it surely should try. 

2AC NED CP

CP fails – government assistance is key.

Wittes ‘8

Tamara Cofman Wittes, director of the Middle East Democracy and Development (MEDD) Project at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, a regional policy center at The Brookings Institution. 2008. Freedom’s Unstead March: America’s Role in Building Arab Democracy. P.120. GoogleBooks.

Despite the failings of the Middle East Partnership 

AND 

. official attention when they need diplomatic backup.

NED fails.

Scott and Steele ‘5

James M. Scott is Professor and Chair of the Department of Political Science, Indiana State University, USA, and Carie A. Steele is a Ph.D. student at the University of Illinois. “Assisting Democrats or Resisting Dictators? The Nature and Impact of Democracy Support by the United States National Endowment for Democracy, 1990–99”. Democratization, Vol.12, No.4, August 2005, pp.439–460

The findings lead to three primary conclusions about 

AND 

impact that were noted earlier in the article.

The NED is unaccountable and links to Kiss of Death worse than the aff.

Conry ‘83

Barbara Conry is a foreign policy analyst at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C. “Loose Cannon: The National Endowment for Democracy”. November 8, 1983. CATO. http://www.cato.org/pubs/fpbriefs/fpb-027.html

That convoluted organizational structure seems to be based 

AND 

"run the show" around the world.

Perm do the CP – the CP is not competitive – the NED is a U.S. organization, therefore it is U.S. democracy assistance.

Its means associated with

Google Dictionary

(Google Search “Define: its”, http://www.google.com/#hl=en&q=its&tbs=dfn:1&tbo=u&sa=X&ei=fpgLTvD2F5GXtwetqu1x&ved=0CB8QkQ4&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.&fp=da92612b0ee8f5bb&biw=1429&bih=686

Belonging to or associated with a thing previously 

AND 

side - he chose the area for its atmosphere

The NED is functionally part of the USFG.

Burron 11 

Neil A, Spring, PhD in Political Science with Specialization in Political Economy. “Reconfiguring Canadian democracy promotion: Convergence with the US approach?” International Journal (Canada), Volume LXVI, No. 2. Questia.

From its inception, the National Endowment for 

AND 

a nonprofit affiliate of the AFL-CIO.

2AC J-V

Ideology means Jackson-Vanik won’t be repealed—PC doesn’t work either and not top of the agenda.

RIA Novosti 3/28

Anti-Russian Amendment Now Headache for U.S., Factiva

Economic sanctions against Russia imposed by the United 

AND 

strategy would yield fast results, he said.

$2 million to Syria

AFP 3/8 

"US gives $2mn more in Syrian humanitarian aid," www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iNPyWCad2Pw826GpTBbWCeyQsxgA?docId=CNG.dcf4e1ff214c7edb4b729f3f0e811a44.41

GENEVA — The United States said Thursday it 

AND 

and Syrian envoys as "positive and dynamic."

Multiple Issues Will thump the DA

--jobs bill

--econ

--budget

--transportation

--VAWA

--healthcare

National Journaly Daily 3/18

Budgets, Jobs, and Highways Fill Week’s Agenda, Factiva

Election-year gamesmanship will dominate Congress this 

AND 

that would force caps on medical malpractice awards.

Only pass will Magnitsky – Obama can’t block it.

WSJ 3/20

After Jackson-Vanik; A bipartisan challenge to Obama's blind spot on rights in Russia, Factiva

The Obama Administration's "reset" with Russia has muffled concerns over human rights and democracy and dwelled on business palatable to the Kremlin like nuclear proliferation and trade. The Senate now has an opportunity to restore balance to this relationship.

Days after Vladimir Putin won another manipulated election

AND 

can't afford to annoy authoritarian regimes this way.

If they attach the Maginstky bill—tanks relations

Butler 3/16

Desmond, staff writer, Senators push Russia trade restriction replacement, http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-03/D9THT70G2.htm

The Obama administration is seeking the repeal urgently 

AND 

alone or in combination with the Magnitsky bill.

No backlash to the plan.

Margon 11 

Sarah Margon is the Associate Director for Sustainable Security at American Progress., 8/22, “Libya Will Still Need Help After Qaddafi’s Departure”, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/08/libya_next_stage.html

Going forward, the United States must once 

AND 

can’t afford to do it any other way. 

Low probability of miscalculation or war

Lowther ‘9

Adam. Defense Analyst, Air Force Research Institute. Challenging Nuclear Abolition. August 2009. Online.

With more than 60 years of nuclear weapons 

AND 

to six decades of American and Russian restraint. 

Economic costs of Jackson-Vanik on trade are zero.

Sestanovich ‘9

Stephen Sestanovich, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a professor of international diplomacy at Columbia University, was the American ambassador at large for the former Soviet Union from 1997 to 2001. “Cold War Leftovers”. May 19, 2009. The New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/20/opinion/20sestanovich.html

Economic reasons are the least likely to carry 

AND 

, but the economic cost is actually zero.

No impact to Russian economy and its resilient.

Blackwill ‘9 

Robert Blackwill, former associate dean of the Kennedy School of Government and Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Planning. RAND. “The Geopolitical Consequences of the World Economic Recession—A Caution”. http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/2009/RAND_OP275.pdf)

Now on to Russia. Again, five 

AND 

in any serious way by the economic crisis.

Unconditional repeal leads to Russian aggression and human rights violations

Alexeeva 10 – former Chair of the Moscow Helsinki Group

Ludmilla, Woodrow Wilson Center, “The Legacy and Consequences of Jackson-Vanik: Reassessing Human Rights in 21st Century Russia,” Scholar

Indeed, we were discussing it yesterday. 

AND 

be concerned about it or talk about it.

Leads to extinction

Human Rights Web 97 

http://www.hrweb.org/intro.html

Many also realized that advances in technology and 

AND 

involved, but to preserve the human race.

HR violations leads to Chechen terrorism

McFaul 4 – Professor of Political Science @ Stanford

Michael, Russia’s Transition to Democracy and U.S.-Russia Relations: Unfinished Business, Center for American Progress, http://www.americanprogress.org/kf/russia_mcfaul.pdf

Putin’s armed forces continue to abuse the human 

AND 

enemies of both Russia and the United States.

Chechen terrorism leads to nuclear use on Moscow that escalates.

-and global nuclear terrorism

Allison 5 – Professor @ Harvard

Graham, The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe, Google Book

Chechen separatists have a long-standing interest 

AND 

find themselves the means to match their motivation.

Political capital not true.

-their evidence misuses the term

-ideological and partisan leanings outweigh

Dickinson 9 – Professor of Political Science

Matthew, professor of political science at Middlebury College and taught previously at Harvard University where he worked under the supervision of presidential scholar Richard Neustadt, 5-26-2009, Presidential Power: A NonPartisan Analysis of Presidential Politics, “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power,”. http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/

As for Sotomayor, from here the path 

AND 

order to play Halo III on his Xbox.  

And, its been on the books for decades – empirically disproves their internal link.

Ivanov 8/13

Eugene Ivanov. April 13, 2011. “Looking beyond the reset”. Russia Beyond the Headlines. http://rbth.ru/articles/2011/04/13/looking_beyond_the_reset_12690.html

Equally important, the “reset” has 

AND 

to deal with the whole spectrum of relations.

Russia is unlikely to cooperate with the U.S. on any major initiatives.

Shleifer and Treisman ’11 – Professor of Economic at Harvard and Professor of PoliSci at UCLA

Andrei Shleifer, Professor of Economics at Harvard University, and Daniel Treisman, Professor of Political Science at the University of California,Los Angeles, and a Visiting Fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna. “Why Moscow Says No: A Question of Russian Interests, Not Psychology”. Foreign Affairs. Jan/Feb 2011. Vol. 90, Iss. 1; pg. 122. ProQuest. 

With very few exceptions, Russia does not 

AND 

the Czech Republic than in the United States.

ME terrorism could never cause extinction, even if all terrorist groups and states banded together

Bacevich ‘6

Andrew J. Bacevich is professor of history and international relations at Boston University, The Islamic Way of War, American Conservative, Sep 11, 2006. Vol. 5, Iss. 17, ProQuest

So it turns out that Arabs-or

AND

both enjoy ample capabilities for self-defense.

Low risk of retaliation– the US would not indiscriminately lash out

Bleek ‘6

Philipp. doctoral candidate in international relations at Georgetown University. Would ‘Deterrence of Negligence’ Reduce the Risk of Catastrophic Terrorism?. August 2006. Online.

But it is not so clear that a

AND

and to ensure that further attacks were prevented.

Their link argument should have already been triggered – it was about the initial intervention.

air power solves global conflict

Hazdra 1

Richard, Major USAF, Air Mobility, Fairchild Paper, Online

In shaping the international environment, the United

AND

amount of timefor an operation to be successful.

air power deters wars throughout the middle east and asia

Khalilzad and Lesser 98

Zalmay and Ian, Senior Researchers – Rand, Sources of Conflict in the 21st Century, http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR897/MR897.chap3.pdf

This subsection attempts to synthesize some of the

AND

be the primary instruments constituting the American  response.

These conflicts are the most probable scenario for global nuclear war

Dibb 1

Paul, Prof – Australian National University, Strategic Trends: Asia at a Crossroads, Naval War College Review, Winter, http://www.nwc.navy.mil/press/Review/2001/Winter/art2-w01.htm

The areas of maximum danger and instability in

AND

to be ineffective when confronted with major crises.

Peaceful transition – in context of Obama

Quinn 11 – Professor of Political Science and Int’l Studies

Adam, “The art of declining politely: Obama’s prudent presidency and the waning of American power,” International Affairs, Volume 87, Issue 4, Wiley Online

As noted in the opening passages of this

AND

to have a president who fits the bill.

Building hegemony with institutional legitimacy means the world order outlasts US material decline – the alternative is great power conflict

Kromah 9

(Lamii Moivi Kromah, Department of International Relations University of the Witwatersrand, February 2009, “The Institutional Nature of U.S. Hegemony: Post 9/11”, http://wiredspace.wits.ac.za/bitstream/handle/10539/7301/MARR%2009.pdf)

I see a multi-polar world as

AND

decline of American predominance in world affairs.” 60

High oil prices make non-conventional oil competitive

-new tech developments and increased production lead to positive feedback that sustains the industry in the long term

Sweet ‘11

Ken Sweet, Contributing editor for CNN Money. 2/25/2011. “Who gets rich off of $100 oil?”. http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/25/markets/100_dollar_oil/index.htm

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- For consumers

AND

prices favor drilling inside the U.S."

That makes warming catastrophically worse

McKibben ‘11

Bill McKibben. 7/11/2011. “Keep Alberta's oil in the ground”. http://m.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/opinion/keep-albertas-oil-in-the-ground/article2089908/?service=mobile

Because I’ve spent my life as an environmentalist

AND

“essentially game over” for the climate.

High investments due to oil prices will have little effect on transition to renewables – oil price uncertainty, market externalities, and costs of transmission all inhibit growth of renewables.

Huntington and Jojarth ’10 – Most Qualified Evidence

Hillard Huntington, Executive Director of Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum, a Senior Fellow and a past-President of the United States Association for Energy Economics and a member of the National Petroleum Council. He was also Vice-President for Publications for the International Association for Energy Economics and a member of the American Statistical Association's Committee on Energy Data., and Christine Jojarth, Ph.D., leads the interdisciplinary Global Oil Governance Performance research project at Stanford’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law. “Financing the Future: Investments in Alternative Sources of Energy” in Global energy governance: the new rules of the game. P. 165-168. Brookings Institution Press. 2010.

These advances in renewable technologies reflect the commitment

AND          

(offshore wind, solar arrays in deserts).

Economic decline collapses renewables

Richard 8

Michael Graham, staff writer, Tree Hugger, http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/02/4_reasons_recession_bad_environment.php

As a counter-point to Lloyd's tongue

AND

Don't even think about progress on global warming...

Renewables cannot reduce dependence on fossil fuels or solve warming.

Spencer ‘8

Roy Spencer, a principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. “Reality Deniers”. January 15, 2008. http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/223225/reality-deniers/roy-spencer

I am astounded by the naiveté of those

AND

power plants with solar and wind generation facilities.

Warming doesn’t lead to extinction

Barrett 6 – Professor of International Policy @ Johns Hopkins

Scott, Professor and Director of International Policy, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, 2006, “CATASTROPHE: The Problem of Averting Global Catastrophe,” Chicago Journal of International Law, Lexis

Less dramatic changes are more likely. Abrupt

AND

climate shifts could directly destroy all humanity." 76

Can’t solve warming

Hamilton 10 – Professor of Public Ethics @ ANU

Clive Hamilton, Professor of Public Ethics in Australia, 2010, “Requiem for a Species: Why We Resist the Truth About Climate Change,” pg 27-28

The conclusion that, even if we act

AND

to the problem was deferred for several years.

No scientific support for global warming hypothesis

Armstong 11 – Professor @ U Wharton School

J. Scott Armstrong, Professor of Marketing specializing in forecasting technology, 3-31-2011, “Climate Change Policy Issues,” CQ Congressional Testimony, Lexis

Global warming alarmists have used improper procedures and

AND

than of the scientific testing of multiple hypotheses.

New spikes collapse the economy – collapses consumer confidence.

Roubini 3/9

Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business, is co-founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics. interview by Benjamin Pauker, "$200 Oil and the Moscow-Beijing Alliance," 3/9/12 www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/03/09/200_oil_roubini_bremmer?page=full, AD 3/20/12

But even without an attack outright, there's

AND

worry about more than the eurozone is oil.

Its different from previous spikes – collapses the economy.

Annunziata 3/18 – PhD in Economics from Princeton

 Marco, Chief Economist of General Electric Co, PhD in Economics from Princeton, "Shock 'n' oil," www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/7736, AD 3/20/12

Oil prices (Brent) are up 14

AND

lower global growth by about one percentage point.

Relations are resilient.

Bader ‘11      

Jeffrey A. Bader, visiting scholar at the China Center at Brookings. “U.S.-China Senior Dialogue: Maintaining the Balance”. May 6, 2011. http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0506_strategic_economic_dialogue_bader.aspx

The S&ED comes at a time

AND

on the agenda of the S&ED.

No China war – prefer our evidence.

Fettweis ‘11 – Professor of Political Science @ Tulane

Christopher, Professor of Political Science @ Tulane, Dangerous Times?: The International Politics of Great Power Peace, pg. 117

The diminution of military influence on policymaking is

AND

the best step for which anyone can hope.

Ideology means Jackson-Vanik won’t be repealed—PC doesn’t work either and not top of the agenda.

RIA Novosti 3/28

Anti-Russian Amendment Now Headache for U.S., Factiva

Economic sanctions against Russia imposed by the United

AND       

strategy would yield fast results, he said.

New climate regs thump the disad.

Davenport 3/27

Coral Davenport. March 27, 2012. National Journal. “First major climate regs from Obama EPA sure to stir political debate”. http://www.govexec.com/oversight/2012/03/first-major-climate-regs-obama-epa-sure-stir-political-debate/41580/?oref=dropdown

The Obama administration is expected to unveil long

AND

led chamber would push hard to roll back.)

Vote on Buffett Rule next week – top of Obama’s agenda

Lee 3-30

Carol. Obama Plans New Push on Buffett Rule. 3-30-12. http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/03/30/obama-plans-new-push-on-buffett-rule/?mod=google_news_blog.

President Barack Obama is shifting his messaging focus

AND

they don’t need and the country can’t afford.”

their evidence says it has been an irritant not that failure collapses relations.

Their link ev is from april and is about the military operation, not assistance.

Only pass will Magnitsky – Obama can’t block it.

WSJ 3/20

After Jackson-Vanik; A bipartisan challenge to Obama's blind spot on rights in Russia, Factiva

The Obama Administration's "reset" with Russia has muffled concerns over human rights and democracy and dwelled on business palatable to the Kremlin like nuclear proliferation and trade. The Senate now has an opportunity to restore balance to this relationship.

Days after Vladimir Putin won another manipulated election

AND

can't afford to annoy authoritarian regimes this way.

The plan is bipartisan

Margon 11

Sarah Margon is the Associate Director for Sustainable Security at American Progress., 8/22, “Libya Will Still Need Help After Qaddafi’s Departure”, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/08/libya_next_stage.html

Going forward, the United States must once

AND

can’t afford to do it any other way.

Bipartisanship is key to the agenda

Rottinghaus and Tedin 11 – Professors of Political Science

Brandon Rottinghaus, Professor of Political Science, and Kent L. Tedin, Professor of Political Science, 2011, “Presidential “Going Bipartisan,” Opposition Reaction and the Consequences for Political Opinions,” The Monkey Cage, http://www.themonkeycage.org/Going%20Bipartisan%20Final.pdf

As candidate and chief executive, Barak Obama

AND

the case in the 2010 lame duck Congress.

Winners win.

Marshall and Prins ’11 – Associate Professors of Political Science

Bryan W Marshall, associate professor of political science at Miami Universityand Brandon C Prins, associate professor of political science at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville& Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, “Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force”. September 2011.  Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3.

Presidents rely heavily on Congress in converting their

AND

managing political capital at home (Fordham 2002).

If they attach the Maginstky bill—tanks relations

Butler 3/16

Desmond, staff writer, Senators push Russia trade restriction replacement, http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-03/D9THT70G2.htm

The Obama administration is seeking the repeal urgently

AND

alone or in combination with the Magnitsky bill.

The plan is bipartisan

Margon 11

Sarah Margon is the Associate Director for Sustainable Security at American Progress., 8/22, “Libya Will Still Need Help After Qaddafi’s Departure”, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/08/libya_next_stage.html

Going forward, the United States must once

AND

can’t afford to do it any other way.

Bipartisanship is key to the agenda

Rottinghaus and Tedin 11 – Professors of Political Science

Brandon Rottinghaus, Professor of Political Science, and Kent L. Tedin, Professor of Political Science, 2011, “Presidential “Going Bipartisan,” Opposition Reaction and the Consequences for Political Opinions,” The Monkey Cage, http://www.themonkeycage.org/Going%20Bipartisan%20Final.pdf

As candidate and chief executive, Barak Obama

AND

the case in the 2010 lame duck Congress.

Winners win.

Marshall and Prins ’11 – Associate Professors of Political Science

Bryan W Marshall, associate professor of political science at Miami Universityand Brandon C Prins, associate professor of political science at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville& Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, “Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force”. September 2011.  Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3.

Presidents rely heavily on Congress in converting their

AND

managing political capital at home (Fordham 2002).

Low probability of miscalculation or war

Lowther ‘9

Adam. Defense Analyst, Air Force Research Institute. Challenging Nuclear Abolition. August 2009. Online.

With more than 60 years of nuclear weapons

AND

to six decades of American and Russian restraint.

Political capital not true.

-their evidence misuses the term

-ideological and partisan leanings outweigh

Dickinson 9 – Professor of Political Science

Matthew, professor of political science at Middlebury College and taught previously at Harvard University where he worked under the supervision of presidential scholar Richard Neustadt, 5-26-2009, Presidential Power: A NonPartisan Analysis of Presidential Politics, “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power,”. http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/

As for Sotomayor, from here the path

AND

order to play Halo III on his Xbox. 

No link—plan is from unspent money.

Murdoch 12/8

Deroy Murdock is a media fellow with the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. 12/8/2011.

http://www.scrippsnews.com/node/65951

Earth to the congressional leadership: Precisely $

AND

should harness the moldy cash in these accounts.

And, its been on the books for decades – empirically disproves their internal link.

Ivanov 8/13

Eugene Ivanov. April 13, 2011. “Looking beyond the reset”. Russia Beyond the Headlines. http://rbth.ru/articles/2011/04/13/looking_beyond_the_reset_12690.html

Equally important, the “reset” has

AND

to deal with the whole spectrum of relations.

Russia is unlikely to cooperate with the U.S. on any major initiatives.

Shleifer and Treisman ’11 – Professor of Economic at Harvard and Professor of PoliSci at UCLA

Andrei Shleifer, Professor of Economics at Harvard University, and Daniel Treisman, Professor of Political Science at the University of California,Los Angeles, and a Visiting Fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna. “Why Moscow Says No: A Question of Russian Interests, Not Psychology”. Foreign Affairs. Jan/Feb 2011. Vol. 90, Iss. 1; pg. 122. ProQuest.

With very few exceptions, Russia does not

AND

the Czech Republic than in the United States.

ARUS earmarked $350 million for IMET for Libya

Wehery 2/25

 Frederic Wehrey is a senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation, a nonprofit research institution. "Bringing Libya under control," 2/25/12 www.rand.org/commentary/2012/02/25/IHT.html, AD 2/28/12

Equipment stores are in shambles. There is

AND         

the logic for these limits no longer holds.

No link uq – Putin already angered over Libyan intervention.

LaFranchi 3/3

Howard LaFranchi, Staff writer. March 3, 2012. “A cold-war chill? US-Russia relations falter over Libya and Syria.”. http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2012/0303/A-cold-war-chill-US-Russia-relations-falter-over-Libya-and-Syria

Whatever happened to the "reset," President

AND

try to do in the UN on Iran."

No link – NTC honoring commitments Gaddafi signed.

Sotloff 3/14

Steven Sotloff, a Yemen-based writer and an adjunct fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “China’s Libya Problem”. March 14, 2012. China Power Blog @ the Diplomat. http://the-diplomat.com/china-power/2012/03/14/china%E2%80%99s-libya-problem/

Despite the challenges facing China, it’s still

AND

will be given preferential treatment in future deals.

Low probability of miscalculation and war.

Lowther ‘9

Adam. Defense Analyst, Air Force Research Institute. Challenging Nuclear Abolition. August 2009. Online.

With more than 60 years of nuclear weapons

AND

to six decades of American and Russian restraint.

Libyan supply’s the crucial variable for US energy security and primacy

Cherian ‘11

John Cherian, who was recently in Damascus and Hama, is Associate Editor of Frontline in India. 11/5/2011. http://www.frontline.in/fl2823/stories/20111118282302400.htm

 THE installation of the National Transitional Council

AND

and Brazil would be frozen out of contracts.

Energy security is US Achilles’ heel – swamps all other internals

Stroupe ‘6

W Joseph Stroupe is editor in chief of GeoStrategyMap.com, an online geopolitical magazine specializing in strategic analysis and forecasting. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/HK22Ag01.html

The US giant is increasingly at risk as

AND

economic aspirations of Russia and the rising East.

Nuclear war

Barnett ‘11

Thomas Barnett, Professor, Warfare Analysis and Research Dept – U.S. Naval War College.  “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,”. 3/7/2011. http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads

Events in Libya are a further reminder for

AND

in battle deaths from state-based conflicts.

Russian control over Libyan oil ensures European dependence – ensures Russian expansionism.

Palmer 1/12

Alex Palmer. “Russia Rising”. January 12, 2012. Harvard International Review. http://hir.harvard.edu/politics-of-disease/russia-rising?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+HarvardInternationalReview+%28Harvard+International+Review%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

Then, in early July, Russia stepped

AND

network, a move the Belarusian government accepted.

No impact to Russian economy

Blackwill ‘9

Robert Blackwill, former associate dean of the Kennedy School of Government and Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Planning. RAND. “The Geopolitical Consequences of the World Economic Recession—A Caution”. http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/2009/RAND_OP275.pdf)

Now on to Russia. Again, five

AND

in any serious way by the economic crisis.

Oil not key – consensus of experts

Bondar and Reznikova ‘11

Natalia Bondar and Anna Reznikova, writers for RBC Daily [Russia]. 10/21/2011 "Oil Out of Favor," RBC daily, No.194, Nexis]

The weak GDP growth in the first half

AND

, Director of Strategic Analysis at FBK Company.

Instability induced shocks are worse for the Russian economy

UPI 4-6

“Middle East trouble haunts Moscow,” http://www.upi.com/Science_News/Resource-Wars/2011/04/06/Middle-East-trouble-haunts-Moscow/UPI-25941302093675/

Stability in the international energy market is better

AND

those in the oil sphere," Ivanov added.

Russia econ resilient and current oil prices sufficient for the econ.

Delaney 1/26

Martin Delaney. “Russia: The Wild East”. 1/26/2011. Investment And Pensions Europe. http://www.ipe.com/magazine/russia-the-wild-east_38558.php

However, many would argue they are wrong

AND

, and return on equity," he insists.

The Russian economy is resilient – even dips caused by oil prices will not cause collapse.

Guriev ’10 - Professor of Economics @ the New Economic School in Moscow

Sergei Guriev, Morgan Stanley Professor of Economics and Rector of the New Economic School in Moscow, “How to reform the Russian economy”. Centre For European Reform Policy Brief. July 2010. www.cer.org.uk/pdf/pb_russian_economy_jul10.pdf

Today’s leadership in Russia has more economic expertise

AND

resource-dependent economies in the 20th century.

High oil prices slow Russian measures to stop corruption, diversify the economy, and limit government control of business – causes a collapse of investment in Russia – collapses the economy inevitably.

VOA News ‘11

VOA News. March 18, 2011. “Russia Gets Giant Boost from Rising Oil Prices”. http://www.voanews.com/english/news/economy-and-business/Russia-Gets-Giant-Boost-from-Rising-Oil-Prices-118258659.html

The downside is that high prices ease pressures

AND

, they are voting with their wire transfers.”

Impact Defense

Proliferation impacts are empirically denied – your authors are alarmists

Krepon 9

Michael. Co-Founder of the Henry L. Stimson Center, a Diplomat Scholar at the University of Virginia, and the author of Better Safe Than Sorry: The Ironies of Living With the Bomb. "The mushroom cloud that wasn't: why inflating threats won't reduce them." Foreign Affairs 88.3 (May-June 2009).

Today, as was the case during the

AND

nuclear threat requires success over the long haul.

Disease spread won’t cause extinction.

Peters and Chrystal ‘3 – Director of Biodefense and Emerging Infectious Diseases @ UT and Chairman of Genetics Medicine @ Cornell

Dr. Clarence, Director of Biodefense and Emerging Infectious Diseases @ UT, and Dr. Ronald, Chairman of Genetics Medicine @ Cornell, FDCH Political Transcripts, “U.S. REPRESENTATIVE CHRISTOPHER COX (R-CA) HOLDS HEARING ON COUNTERING THE BIOTERRORISM THREAT”, 3-15, Lexis.

PETERS: I think we have one example

AND

the consequences to our society would be enormous.

Case

Korean war won’t escalate.

Kang, prof of IR @ USC, ‘10

David, 12/31/2010. http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/koreas-new-cold-war-4653

However, despite dueling artillery barrages and the

AND

—keep smaller incidents in their proper perspective.

European conflicts won’t escalate – no vacuum of power.

Fettweis ‘11 – Professor of Political Science @ Tulane

Christopher, Professor of Political Science @ Tulane, Dangerous Times?: The International Politics of Great Power Peace, pg. 85

The trend is apparent on every continent.

AND

seem to repel far more than they attract.

Afghanistan

AIDS wont cause extinction – even with high mutation rate.

Yu ‘9

Victoria Yu, Spring 2009, “Human Extinction: The Uncertainty of Our Fate,” http://dujs.dartmouth.edu/spring-2009/human-extinction-the-uncertainty-of-our-fate

A pandemic will kill off all humans.

AND

rather through the weakening of the immune system.

Ozone

Montreal Protocol will save the Ozone now.

Boyle ‘8

Alan Boyle, science editor. MSNBC. “How satellites saved the world”. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23213424/

Ozone monitoring: Satellites have been tracking threats

AND

story we have to date," he said.

Your theory on ozone depletion is out of date- cosmic ray cycles, not cfc’s or emissions account for depletion.

Exchange Magazine ‘9

Exchange, Magazine for Business/Economic Development/Entrepreneurs, March 24, 2009, “UW Prof Says Cyclic Ozone Hole Proves Cosmis Ray Theory,” http://www.exchangemagazine.com/morningpost/2009/week13/Tuesday/032409.htm

A University of Waterloo scientist says that an

AND

and the ozone hole over the South Pole.

Politics

No risk of Russian hardliners – the Russia elite want cooperation with the U.S.

Belkovsky ‘9

Stanislav Belkovsky, founder and director of the National Strategy Institute, a Moscow-based NGO and thinktank. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jul/03/russia-barack-obama-medvedev-putin

How to handle Russia/July 3

US president Barack Obama arrives in Moscow on

AND

willing to abandon in exchange for proper compensation.

Buffet Rule

Causes a fight with Republicans – triggers your link – the warrant is budget

Times Leader 3-15

http://www.timesleader.com/stories/Obama-renews-political-tax-fight-with-Republicans,110127.

President set up another clash with Republicans on

AND

want greater spending cuts to reduce America's debt.

Won’t Pass

Won’t pass until after the election

Herspring 3/23—Professor @ K-State

Dale, featured in Russia Profile, Russia Profile Weekly Experts Panel: Will Russia Graduate From the Jackson-Vanik Amendment?, Factiva

Only if Putin goes privately to Obama and

AND

a non-starter until after the election.

Won’t pass

Belaeff 3/23—Global Society Institute

Vladimir, featured in Russia Profile, Russia Profile Weekly Experts Panel: Will Russia Graduate From the Jackson-Vanik Amendment?, Factiva

In the current election year, Obama’s opponents

AND

will influence the fate of the present initiative.

Magnitsky

And, Kerry will push for Magnitsky.

RFE 3/31

Radio Free Europe. “Kerry Backs Pairing Magnitsky Bill With Jackson-Vanik Repeal”. March 31, 2012. http://www.rferl.org/content/kerry_jackson-vanik_magnitsky/24533107.html

U.S. Senator John Kerry,

AND

Amendment is "the way to move forward."

Yes Magnistky – even if Obama doesn’t want it – it's the only way to get Republicans in the house.

RIA Novosti 3/28

Anti-Russian Amendment Now Headache for U.S., Factiva

U.S. legislators are unlikely to

AND

in Congress is in fact a bipartisan group.

Libyan security deteriorating now in the absence of a credible NTC—militias and regional divides could tip the country into a civil war

Sharqieh and Nnamdi 3/7

 Ibrahim, Debuty Director, Brookings Doya Center, in an interview n the Kojo Nnamdi Show, NPR, 3/7/12 "An Update on Libya," http://thekojonnamdishow.org/shows/2012-03-07/libya-update/transcript, AD 3/18/12

months after the fall of Col. Moammar… don't think we're there yet.

Destabilized Libya spills over throughout the region

Pack and Barfi February ‘12

Jason Pack, president of Libya-Analysis.com, has worked in Tripoli and Washington on promoting commercial and diplomatic relations between the United States and Libya. His articles have appeared in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy, and the Guardian, and Barak Barfi is a research fellow with the New America Foundation, specializing in Arab and Islamic affairs. “In War’s Wake: The Struggle for Post-Qadhafi Libya”. February 2012. The Washington Institute. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus118.pdf

Regarding counterterrorism: Libya would… against incumbent governments. 123

African is strategically vital – even regional wars threaten global escalation.

Glick 7 – senior ME Fellow @ Center for Security Policy in Washington DC

Caroline B. Glick, the senior Middle East fellow at the Center for Security Policy in Washington, D.C., The Center for Security Policy is a non-profit, non-partisan national security organization. 12/11/2007. “Condi's African holiday”. http://www.carolineglick.com/e/2007/12/condis-african-holiday.php?pf=yes

The Horn of Africa… actors and global powers.

Balanced representation is essential to solve eastern Libya’s demands- absent that it causes shutdown of 80% of oil

Al Shalchi 3/27

Hadeel Al Shalchi, Reuters, “East Libyans threaten to stop oil to press govt,” Mar 27, 2012, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/27/libya-east-oil-idUSL6E8ERA4Y20120327

A Libyan politician campaigning… seats by the number of regions."

Collapses the global economy

Warner ‘12

Jeremy Warner, assistant editor of The Daily Telegraph, is one of Britain's leading business and economics commentators. A serial winner of awards, he has also been honoured for an "outstanding contribution in defence of freedom of the media" by the Society of Editors for his refusal to reveal sources to Government inspectors. 1/5/2012. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/8995663/Oil-prices-still-have-the-capacity-to-shock.html

 To almost universal surprise… capacity to shock goes undiminished.

Extinction

Kemp ‘10

Geoffrey Kemp, Director of Regional Strategic Programs at The Nixon Center, served in the White House under Ronald Reagan, special assistant to the president for national security affairs and senior director for Near East and South Asian affairs on the National Security Council Staff, Former Director, Middle East Arms Control Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2010, The East Moves West: India, China, and Asia’s Growing Presence in the Middle East, p. 233-4

The second scenario, called Mayhem… thirds of the planet’s population.

Economic decline risks great power conflict

Green and Schrage in ‘9

Michael J Green, Senior Advisor and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Associate Professor at Georgetown University. Steven P Schrage, the CSIS Scholl Chair in International Business and a former senior official with the US Trade Representative's Office, State Department and Ways & Means Committee. Asia Times. March 26 2009. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economy/KC26Dk01.html

However, the Great Depression… asymmetrical advantages against the international system.

Best studies prove decline causes war.

Royal 10

Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215

Less intuitive is how periods… security debate and deserves more attention.

And, Libya is essential to offset Iran sanction’s impact on prices- OPEC has zero spare capacity

Donati 3/20

Jessica Donati, Mar 20, 2012, Reuters, UPDATE 4-Oil slips towards $124 on Saudi, Libya supplies, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/20/markets-oil-idUSL6E8EK1EZ20120320

Libya is also ramping up production… analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a report on Tuesday.

World oil market it tight – new supply disruptions collapse the global economy recovery.

Wolf 3/27

Martin Wolf, associate editor and chief economics commentator at the Financial Times, widely considered to be one of the world's most influential writers on economics. “Prepare for a new era of oil shocks”. The Financial Times. March 27, 2012. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/41ba759a-7730-11e1-baf3-00144feab49a.html#axzz1qNuyqGNk

Yet, despite the absurd politicking, we should… imports and keep some of it, instead.

The U.S. must capitalize on the momentum of the revolutions to reverse a decade of authoritarian momentum – failure emboldens Russia, China, and Iran to behave aggressively and challenge the liberal international order.

Puddington ‘11

Arch Puddington, researcher at Freedom House, responsible for preparation of Freedom in the World reports. September 2011. “Democracy’s Stake in the Arab Spring”. Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs. Vol. 5, No. 3. online: http://israelcfr.com/documents/5-3/5-3-3-ArchPuddington.pdf

To be effective, this effort must… cause of freedom everywhere else.

The US needs to take the lead and aggressively support democracy in Libya – anything else is perceived as managing decline and turning its back on global democracy.

Hamid ‘11

Shadi Hamid, Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center. “What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring”. October 1, 2011. http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/1001_obama_hamid.aspx

Throughout the Arab spring, analysts… for “stable,” repressive regimes.

Reasserting U.S. influence in Libya is essential to locking in a paradigm of international cooperation and liberalism.

Pack and Barfi February ‘12

Jason Pack, president of Libya-Analysis.com, has worked in Tripoli and Washington on promoting commercial and diplomatic relations between the United States and Libya. His articles have appeared in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy, and the Guardian, and Barak Barfi is a research fellow with the New America Foundation, specializing in Arab and Islamic affairs. “In War’s Wake: The Struggle for Post-Qadhafi Libya”. February 2012. The Washington Institute. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus118.pdf

A stable Libya is critical… avoid repeating that particular history.

This is key to the international order – that dampens international conflicts and solves resource and environmental conflicts – only the U.S. can ensure success.

Ikenberry ’11 – Professor of Politics and International Affairs @ Princeton

G. John Ikenberry, the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University. “A World of Our Making”. Democracy A Journal of Ideas. Issue #21, Summer 2011. http://www.democracyjournal.org/21/a-world-of-our-making-1.php?page=1

This spring’s dramatic upheaval… are congenial to its long-term security.

A U.S. liberal leadership is critical to effective international institutions and cooperation that solves all global problems and great power conflict – there is no effective alternative.

Kromah 9

(Lamii Moivi Kromah, Department of International Relations University of the Witwatersrand, February 2009, “The Institutional Nature of U.S. Hegemony: Post 9/11”, http://wiredspace.wits.ac.za/bitstream/handle/10539/7301/MARR%2009.pdf)

A final major gain to the United… broad measure of international security. 57

Nuclear War

Dyer 4

Gwynne, PhD in Military and Middle Eastern History at King's College London 

Toronto Star, The End of War, 12/30/04, http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1230-05.htm

War is deeply embedded… context of the existing state system.

Independently, renewed Russian aggression threatens global nuclear war.

Blank 9

Dr. Stephen Blank, Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College. March 2009. “Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?,” online: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf

Proliferators or nuclear states… aggression on their neighbors or their own people.172

And, their impact defense no longer applies.

Palmer 1/12

Alex Palmer. “Russia Rising”. January 12, 2012. Harvard International Review. http://hir.harvard.edu/politics-of-disease/russia-rising?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+HarvardInternationalReview+%28Harvard+International+Review%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

At a time of uncertainty around… comes a new spring.

Plan: The United States federal government should increase democracy assistance for accountable democratic governance in Libya.

U.S. support for transparency and accountability within the NTC and bottom up support for civil society is essential to effective transition and militia integration – USAID now, but limited to $5 million

Engel 2/21

Andrew Engel, a former research assistant at The Washington Institute, is a master's candidate in security studies at Georgetown University and a private consultant. He traveled across Libya immediately after its official liberation. “Libya's Floundering Transition”. February 21, 2012. Washington Institute for Near East Policy. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3454

Washington should help… clock is ticking as elections approach.

U.S. technical assistance is essential to incorporating the periphery of Libyan society and ensuring U.S. influence –next few months key

Pack and Barfi February ‘12

Jason Pack, president of Libya-Analysis.com, has worked in Tripoli and Washington on promoting commercial and diplomatic relations between the United States and Libya. His articles have appeared in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy, and the Guardian, and Barak Barfi is a research fellow with the New America Foundation, specializing in Arab and Islamic affairs. “In War’s Wake: The Struggle for Post-Qadhafi Libya”. February 2012. The Washington Institute. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus118.pdf

Lacking civil society institutions…

          Western interests in Libya.

The NTC has the political and economic tools to co-opt and integrate militia fighters – U.S. technical assistance is key.

Pack and Barfi February ‘12

Jason Pack, president of Libya-Analysis.com, has worked in Tripoli and Washington on promoting commercial and diplomatic relations between the United States and Libya. His articles have appeared in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy, and the Guardian, and Barak Barfi is a research fellow with the New America Foundation, specializing in Arab and Islamic affairs. “In War’s Wake: The Struggle for Post-Qadhafi Libya”. February 2012. The Washington Institute. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus118.pdf

Yet despite the lack of a viable alternative... defense minister, respectively.

Aid now to Libya, including the USAID, but doesn't include capacity building and governance.

Pack and Barfi February ‘12

Jason Pack, president of Libya-Analysis.com, has worked in Tripoli and Washington on promoting commercial and diplomatic relations between the United States and Libya. His articles have appeared in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy, and the Guardian, and Barak Barfi is a research fellow with the New America Foundation, specializing in Arab and Islamic affairs. “In War’s Wake: The Struggle for Post-Qadhafi Libya”. February 2012. The Washington Institute. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus118.pdf

On the American side, bureaucratic… capacity building or vocational training.107

No impact for 300 years

JP ‘7

Technology Industry Columnist, “Peak Phosphorus? Hit the Snooze Button”. Peak Oil Debunked Blog. December 12, 2007. http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/2007/12/321-peak-phosphorus.html

Now, let's compare that… on "Peak Phosphorus".

JDP reforms are locked in

Ayed 1/24

Ben Ayed, president and CEO of the Tunis-based technology firm TMI,1/24/12, From Post-Revolution Tunisia, Hope That the Arab Spring Will Unleash Regional Innovation, knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/arabic/article.cfm?articleid=2773&language_id=1

Morocco is another… all other solutions.

But reforms fail

IPS 2/10

Touch of Arab Spring Comes Late to Morocco, http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=106714

Deadly clashes between police… with the conservatives.

No Morocco FDI—Europe

Rosenburg 12/17

David Rosenberg, JPost, 12/17/11, Foreign investment outlook dims on Arab Spring. http://www.jpost.com/Features/InThespotlight/Article.aspx?id=249791

Sanctions and a European economy… from 0.8% last quarter.

Other countries cause FDI shift

Iraq—neg author

Hogg 1/2

1/3/12, The Unexpected Early Winners of the Arab Spring, knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2915

Morocco is not alone in… bottled water vendor for the U.S. military.

Moroccan instability causes global Phosphorus supply shocks – global ag crisis

Dana Cordell (Research Principal, Institute for Sustainable Futures at University of Technology, Sydney)  Stuart White (Professor at University of Technology, Sydney) and Tim Prior (Research Principal at University of Technology, Sydney) September 2011 “Securing phosphorus: food for thought, and food for the future” http://theconversation.edu.au/securing-phosphorus-food-for-thought-and-food-for-the-future-756

Western Sahara is rich in high… price of phosphate rock rose 800%.

Great power war

Fredrik Moberg (phD Stolkhom U). "The Imminent Phosphorus Crisis Threatens Future Food Security Around The World" Sustainable Development Update. 2:7 2007. Online. a

Global food security depends heavily… at all impossible to envision.

No impact to Libyan oil shocks

Irwin M. Stelzer (a contributing editor to The Weekly Standard, director of economic policy studies at the Hudson Institute) March 7, 2011 “A Libyan Oil Shock?” http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/libyan-oil-shock_552544.html?page=1

So were it not for other factors, the loss… elsewhere prove correct.

No shocks – we have capacity to fill in

M&C News February 24, 2011 “White House ready for oil shocks from Libyan crisis” http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/business/news/article_1621884.php/White-House-ready-for-oil-shocks-from-Libyan-crisis

The White House said Thursday… dollars per barrel in New York

Spare capacity now- Saudi Arabia is prepared to offset shocks

Blas 3/19 (Javier Blas, Commodities Editor at Financial Times, “Saudi Arabia moves to calm oil market,” http://goo.gl/6TiaU)

Saudi Arabia is taking… production capacity, officials said.

Instability wont escalate

UN Integrated Regional Information Networks December 29, 2011 “Country's Long Road to Disarmament” Lexis

The outfit gives Mohammed a thrill and his armed buddies often storm houses "like you see in the movies", kicking in doors and pushing women and children out of the way to get to the wanted people. The latter sometimes return fire, leading to exchanges of gunfire on residential streets. "The vast majority of these militias are… as fighters, they don't follow orders blindly."

2AC Politics

Vawa won’t pass

Weisman 3/14

Women Figure Anew in Senate’s Latest Battle http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/15/us/politics/violence-against-women-act-divides-senate.html

With emotions still raw

Can’t solve their impact – too many other countries.

Claims of Root Causality are Grounded in Deterministic Theories That Preclude Effective Solutions

Hutchinson ‘4

Fred Hutchison - March 22, 2004. “American innovation and the culture war: A golden age of American innovation”. http://www.renewamerica.com/columns/hutchison/040322

When liberals speak of the "root causes… and return to adolescence.

No single cause of conflict

Barnett et al 7

Michael, Hunjoon Kim, Madalene O’Donnell, Laura Sitea, Global Governance, “Peacebuilding: What is in a Name?”, Questia

Because there are multiple… are an invaluable partner.

Structural violence pales in comparison to a nuclear conflict

Hanson 8

Victor Davis, senior fellow @ the Hoover Institution, January 14, pg. http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=M2VhN2VmNzYxN2Q2YjM0M2UyYmNlZGI0NzhkZTFiYjQ=&w=MQ==

Despite the scare capitals, I doubt whether… rather than the present silence.

The plan is bipartisan

Margon 11

Sarah Margon is the Associate Director for Sustainable Security at American Progress., 8/22, “Libya Will Still Need Help After Qaddafi’s Departure”, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/08/libya_next_stage.html

Going forward, the United States… afford to do it any other way.

Bipartisanship is key to the agenda

Rottinghaus and Tedin 11 – Professors of Political Science

Brandon Rottinghaus, Professor of Political Science, and Kent L. Tedin, Professor of Political Science, 2011, “Presidential “Going Bipartisan,” Opposition Reaction and the Consequences for Political Opinions,” The Monkey Cage, http://www.themonkeycage.org/Going%20Bipartisan%20Final.pdf

As candidate and chief executive… the 2010 lame duck Congress.

Winners win.

Marshall and Prins ’11 – Associate Professors of Political Science

Bryan W Marshall, associate professor of political science at Miami Universityand Brandon C Prins, associate professor of political science at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville& Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, “Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force”. September 2011.  Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3.

Presidents rely heavily on Congress… l capital at home (Fordham 2002).

No link—plan is from unspent money.

Murdoch 12/8

Deroy Murdock is a media fellow with the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. 12/8/2011.

http://www.scrippsnews.com/node/65951

Earth to the congressional… moldy cash in these accounts.

New climate regs thump the disad.

Davenport 3/27

Coral Davenport. March 27, 2012. National Journal. “First major climate regs from Obama EPA sure to stir political debate”. http://www.govexec.com/oversight/2012/03/first-major-climate-regs-obama-epa-sure-stir-political-debate/41580/?oref=dropdown

The Obama administration is… would push hard to roll back.)

Vote on Buffett Rule next week – top of Obama’s agenda

Lee 3-30

Carol. Obama Plans New Push on Buffett Rule. 3-30-12. http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/03/30/obama-plans-new-push-on-buffett-rule/?mod=google_news_blog.

President Barack Obama is shifting… and the country can’t afford.”

Oil subsidies

PennEnergy 3/27

“Senate Gears Up for Heated Oil Subsidies Debate”. http://markets.financialcontent.com/pennwell.ogj/news/read/20948481/senate_gears_up_for_heated_oil_subsidies_debate

Sen. Robert Menendez, the bill's chief… quickly building the Keystone XL Pipeline.

Political capital not true.

-their evidence misuses the term

-ideological and partisan leanings outweigh

Dickinson 9 – Professor of Political Science

Matthew, professor of political science at Middlebury College and taught previously at Harvard University where he worked under the supervision of presidential scholar Richard Neustadt, 5-26-2009, Presidential Power: A NonPartisan Analysis of Presidential Politics, “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power,”. http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/

As for Sotomayor, from… order to play Halo III on his Xbox. 

2AC Qatar CP

Either Libya says no or it turns the case –Qatar is trying to exert influence in Libya now and undermining the NTC

Sotloff 1/2

Steven, Time, "Why the Libyans Have Fallen Out of Love with Qatar," 1/2/12 www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2103409,00.html AD 1/5/12

But with Gaddafi dead and his regime… Protests Libya's New Regime.")

Only the U.S. can solve – other powers will be blocked by major powers.

Grygiel ‘11

Jakub J. Grygiel, CEPA Senior Fellow and Associate Professor at SAIS. “Great Powers and Democracy Promotion”. October 3, 2011. Center for European Policy Analysis. http://www.cepa.org/ced/view.aspx?record_id=319

Finally, we cannot outsource… consequences of their actions.

Qatari assistance undermines the center and the NTC.

Pack and Barfi ‘12

Jason Pack, president of Libya-Analysis.com, has worked in Tripoli and Washington on promoting commercial and diplomatic relations between the United States and Libya. His articles have appeared in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy, and the Guardian, and Barak Barfi is a research fellow with the New America Foundation, specializing in Arab and Islamic affairs. “In War’s Wake: The Struggle for Post-Qadhafi Libya”. February 2012. The Washington Institute. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus118.pdf

Qatar did not limit its support… undercutting the center’s agenda.

The NTC says no and the CP ensures continued instability.

Beaumont ‘11

Peter Beaumont, Columnist. October 4, 2011. The Guardian. “Qatar accused of interfering in Libyan affairs”. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/04/qatar-interfering-libya

The tiny Arab emirate of Qatar… money and support to certain individuals."

2AC NATO

Economic focus means they stay looking domestically.

NATO key to European security and influence –economics prevent military buildup—this is their card

Rafnsso ‘11

Örvar Þorri Rafnsso (University of Iceland) February 2011 “Why Can We Get Rid of the Western European Union? European Collective Security and the Modified Brussels Treaty” http://skemman.is/en/item/view/1946/7269

NATO, along with the United States… complicated that goal still looks at present.

Europe won’t boost military spending for 20 years

ISN 2/15

International Relations and Security Network, "Defense Spending: Economy Trumps Strategy," 2/15/12 www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/Special-Feature/Detail?lng=en&id=137230&contextid774=137230&contextid775=137227&tabid=137227, AD 3/7/12

A similar pattern to America's behavior… low for the foreseeable future.

EU will not follow through on defense cooperation.

O’Donnell ‘11

Clara M. O'Donnell, Nonresident Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe. “The Future of EU-U.S. Security and Defense Cooperation: What Lies Ahead?”. October 3, 2011. http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/1003_us_eu_defense_odonnell.aspx

But on the other side… never be committed to defense.

LFB on Libya collapses cooperation and burden sharing.

Erlanger ‘11

Stevene Erlanger, Paris bureau chief for the New York Times. 9/21/11. “What the War in Libya Tells Europe”. www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/09/21/what-war-in-libya-tells-europe/57ij

But less happily, he said, "if 'leading from… look elsewhere for reliable defense partners."

The EU-US alliance is no longer critical to solving the world problems, and it will continue to decline due to leaders views about the alliances importance.

Helgesen ‘11

Vidar Helgesen, Secretary-General of International IDEA. “Reinvigorating the Infrastructure for Democracy Support: Strengthening multilateral mechanisms for coordinating and implementing democracy policy – what role for the EU and US”. March 3, 2011. http://www.idea.int/resources/analysis/upload/2011-03-03-International-IDEA-NDI-paper-final.pdf

Reviewing the transatlantic… transatlantic support to democracy.

UN CP

Leading from behind bolsters Iranian expansion

Hulett 12-3-11, Sue, Richard P. and Sophia D. Henke Distinguished Professor of Political Science and chair of the Political Science Department at Knox College, http://www.galesburg.com/newsnow/x917961022/Sue-Hulett-U-S-should-focus-on-sanctions-against-Iran

While others worry about the…” to Iranian manipulation (as in Iraq and Bahrain.)

Causes regional war and miscalc

Marc Lynch 11, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, “Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East”, June, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Upheaval_Lynch_2.pdf

As it struggles to recalibrate… produce sudden and game-changing war.

Only US support for democratization sends a signal that delegitimizes al Qaeda.

Gordon and Zarate ‘11

David A. Gordon, Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, and Juan C. Zarate, Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism, Summer 2011, “The Battle for Reform with Al-Qaeda,” The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 34, No. 3, p. 103-122

Admittedly, in many quarters, the… beginning of the end of the long war.

Extinction

Toon et al 7

Owen B. Toon, chair of the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at CU-Boulder, et al., April 19, 2007, “Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism,” online: http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/acp-7-1973-2007.pdf

To an increasing extent, people… well for the present scenarios and physical outcomes.

Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts won’t spill-over – no one will be draw-in.

Fettweis ’11 – Professor of Political Science @ Tulane

Christopher Fettweis, Professor of Political Science @ Tulane. “Dangerous Times: The Futurist Interviews Christopher Fettweis”. World Future Society. 1/12/2011.  http://www.wfs.org/content/dangerous-times-futurist-interviews-christopher-fettweis

THE FUTURIST: In the next few years… countries? Probably not.

Iraq won’t escalate- tons of other civil wars disprove

Yglesias ‘7

Matthew Yglesias, a Fellow at the Center for American Progress Action Fund. He holds a BA in Philosophy from Harvard University. September 12, 2007. “Containing Iraq”. The Atlantic.  http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/09/containing_iraq.php

Kevin Drum tries to throw some water… to a regional conflagration."

Tech solves

Schneidera et al ‘6.

L. Shua, P., aSchool of Engineering, James Cook University, V. Jegatheesana, Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority ,  and J. Johnsonb, “An economic evaluation of phosphorus recovery as struvite from digester supernatant”, November, ScienceDirect

Phosphorus is currently sourced… resources given priority.

Despite multiple flashpoints – Asian war unlikely

Bitzinger and Desker ‘8 – Senior Fellow @ International Studies Perspectives

Richard and Barry, PhD from UCLA and Senior Fellow @ International Studies Perspectives, Dean of the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Why East Asian War is Unlikely, Survival, Volume 50, Issue 6 December 2008 , pages 105 – 128

The Asia-Pacific region… that war in Asia - while not inconceivable - is unlikely.

Mueller’s wrong

Ravenal 9 - Georgetown University School of Foreign Service

Earl, “What’s empire got to do with it?  The derivation of America’s foreign policy,” Critical Review, 21.1

Mueller's assessment of the terrorist… cognized by targeted victims.

Korean war won’t escalate.

Kang, prof of IR @ USC, ‘10

David, 12/31/2010. http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/koreas-new-cold-war-4653

However, despite dueling artillery barrages… incidents in their proper perspective.

extinction – even with high mutation rate.

Yu ‘9

Victoria Yu, Spring 2009, “Human Extinction: The Uncertainty of Our Fate,” http://dujs.dartmouth.edu/spring-2009/human-extinction-the-uncertainty-of-our-fate

A pandemic will kill off all humans… of the immune system.

Europe can’t cooperate on defense issues

WSJ '11

"Europeans Retreat on Defense Spending ," By STEPHEN FIDLER And ALISTAIR MACDONALD, 8/23/11 online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903461304576524503625829970.html, AD 3/9/12

Britain is talking to Northern… secure agreements among themselves.

Austerity means no money in the future

Molling '11

Dr. Christian Molling is a researcher in SWP's International Security Division,  "Europe without Defence," November 2011, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs, available http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Digital-Library/Publications/Detail/?id=135191, AD 3/7/12

The defence-economic imperative: 20 years… be possible due to the lack of capability.

Not a question of political will –no available funds

Dowdall '11

Jonathan, Defence Dateline Group, "European Forces Queue Up for Defence Reform Health Assessment," 8/8/11 www.defenceiq.com/air-land-and-sea-defence-services/articles/defence-dateline-s-2011-military-reform-check-up/, AD 3/7/12

European defence is still ailing from the ravages… is anything but out of danger.