Plan

Plan: The United States federal government should provide support for democratic governance to the Libyan National Transitional Council.

*Stability Adv*

Advantage __: Stability

Libyan security deteriorating now in the absence of a credible NTC—militias and regional divides could tip the country into a civil war

Sharqieh and Nnamdi 3/7

 Ibrahim, Debuty Director, Brookings Doya Center, in an interview n the Kojo Nnamdi Show, NPR, 3/7/12 "An Update on Libya," http://thekojonnamdishow.org/shows/2012-03-07/libya-update/transcript, AD 3/18/12

MR. KOJO NNAMDI 12:41:

AND

now, I don't think we're there yet.

Destabilized Libya spills over throughout the region

Pack and Barfi February ‘12

Jason Pack, president of Libya-Analysis.com, has worked in Tripoli and Washington on promoting commercial and diplomatic relations between the United States and Libya. His articles have appeared in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy, and the Guardian, and Barak Barfi is a research fellow with the New America Foundation, specializing in Arab and Islamic affairs. “In War’s Wake: The Struggle for Post-Qadhafi Libya”. February 2012. The Washington Institute. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus118.pdf

Regarding counterterrorism: Libya would pose a greater

AND

largely strengthening peripheral movements against incumbent governments. 123

African is strategically vital – even regional wars threaten global escalation.

Glick 7 – senior ME Fellow @ Center for Security Policy in Washington DC

Caroline B. Glick, the senior Middle East fellow at the Center for Security Policy in Washington, D.C., The Center for Security Policy is a non-profit, non-partisan national security organization. 12/11/2007. “Condi's African holiday”. http://www.carolineglick.com/e/2007/12/condis-african-holiday.php?pf=yes

The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and

AND

conflagrations between competing regional actors and global powers.

Balanced representation in the new government is essential to solve eastern Libya’s demands- absent that the region will shutdown of 80% of Libyan oil

Al Shalchi 3/27

Hadeel Al Shalchi, Reuters, “East Libyans threaten to stop oil to press govt,” Mar 27, 2012, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/27/libya-east-oil-idUSL6E8ERA4Y20120327

A Libyan politician campaigning for greater autonomy for

AND

number of seats by the number of regions."

Collapses the global economy

Warner ‘12

Jeremy Warner, assistant editor of The Daily Telegraph, is one of Britain's leading business and economics commentators. A serial winner of awards, he has also been honoured for an "outstanding contribution in defence of freedom of the media" by the Society of Editors for his refusal to reveal sources to Government inspectors. 1/5/2012. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/8995663/Oil-prices-still-have-the-capacity-to-shock.html

 To almost universal surprise, much of

AND

activity. Oil's capacity to shock goes undiminished.

Economic collapse causes extinction

Kemp ‘10

Geoffrey Kemp, Director of Regional Strategic Programs at The Nixon Center, served in the White House under Ronald Reagan, special assistant to the president for national security affairs and senior director for Near East and South Asian affairs on the National Security Council Staff, Former Director, Middle East Arms Control Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2010, The East Moves West: India, China, and Asia’s Growing Presence in the Middle East, p. 233-4

The second scenario, called Mayhem and Chaos

AND

for two-thirds of the planet’s population.

Decline risks great power conflict and invigorated belligerent states

Green and Schrage in ‘9

Michael J Green, Senior Advisor and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Associate Professor at Georgetown University. Steven P Schrage, the CSIS Scholl Chair in International Business and a former senior official with the US Trade Representative's Office, State Department and Ways & Means Committee. Asia Times. March 26 2009. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economy/KC26Dk01.html

However, the Great Depression taught us that

AND

advance their asymmetrical advantages against the international system.

Best studies prove decline causes war.

Royal 10

Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215

Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline

AND

economic-security debate and deserves more attention.

And, Libya is essential to offset Iran sanction’s impact on prices- OPEC has zero spare capacity

Donati 3/20

Jessica Donati, Mar 20, 2012, Reuters, UPDATE 4-Oil slips towards $124 on Saudi, Libya supplies, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/20/markets-oil-idUSL6E8EK1EZ20120320

Libya is also ramping up production as it

AND

Morgan Stanley said in a report on Tuesday.

World oil market is tight – new supply disruptions collapse the global economy recovery.

Wolf 3/27

Martin Wolf, associate editor and chief economics commentator at the Financial Times, widely considered to be one of the world's most influential writers on economics. “Prepare for a new era of oil shocks”. The Financial Times. March 27, 2012. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/41ba759a-7730-11e1-baf3-00144feab49a.html#axzz1qNuyqGNk

Yet, despite the absurd politicking, we

AND

imports and keep some of it, instead.

*Liberal Internationalism Adv*

Advantage __: Liberal Internationalism

The U.S. must capitalize on the momentum of the revolutions to reverse a decade of authoritarian momentum – failure emboldens Russia, China, and Iran to behave aggressively and challenge the liberal international order.

Puddington ‘11

Arch Puddington, researcher at Freedom House, responsible for preparation of Freedom in the World reports. September 2011. “Democracy’s Stake in the Arab Spring”. Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs. Vol. 5, No. 3. online: http://israelcfr.com/documents/5-3/5-3-3-ArchPuddington.pdf

To be effective, this effort must be

AND

set back the cause of freedom everywhere else.

The US needs to take the lead and aggressively support democracy in Libya – anything else is perceived as managing decline and turning its back on global democracy.

Hamid ‘11

Shadi Hamid, Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center. “What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring”. October 1, 2011. http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/1001_obama_hamid.aspx

Throughout the Arab spring, analysts and policymakers

AND

of support for “stable,” repressive regimes.

Reasserting U.S. influence in Libya is essential to locking in a paradigm of international cooperation and liberalism.

Pack and Barfi February ‘12

Jason Pack, president of Libya-Analysis.com, has worked in Tripoli and Washington on promoting commercial and diplomatic relations between the United States and Libya. His articles have appeared in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy, and the Guardian, and Barak Barfi is a research fellow with the New America Foundation, specializing in Arab and Islamic affairs. “In War’s Wake: The Struggle for Post-Qadhafi Libya”. February 2012. The Washington Institute. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus118.pdf

A stable Libya is critical to Western security

AND

is necessary to avoid repeating that particular history.

The plan is key – it reinvigorates our national strategy in line with our traditional values.

Lajeunesse ‘11

Gabriel Lajeunesse, Writer, Advocate. “The Arab Spring and the Illusion of a Pragmatic Approach to Foreign Policy”. October 12, 2011. The Huffington Post.

As Arab Spring moves into Arab Fall,

AND

Arab, or African, or Asian Spring.

Outsourcing our support for democracy in Libya allows Russia, China, and Iran to advance authoritarianism – causes regional conflicts that risk great power war – only U.S. support for democracy can challenge their ideology.

Grygiel ‘11

Dr. Jakub Grygiel is a Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and the George H.W. Bush Senior Associate Professor of International Relations at Johns Hopkins-SAIS. “Great Powers and Democracy Promotion”. October 3, 2011. Central Europe Digest. http://www.cepa.org/ced/view.aspx?record_id=319

Now that the President is, at least

AND

on the side of democracy and human rights.

Support for democratic movements is critical to securing a liberal international order – critical to dampen international conflicts and solve resource and environmental conflicts – only the U.S. can ensure success.

Ikenberry ’11 – Professor of Politics and International Affairs @ Princeton

G. John Ikenberry, the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University. “A World of Our Making”. Democracy A Journal of Ideas. Issue #21, Summer 2011. http://www.democracyjournal.org/21/a-world-of-our-making-1.php?page=1

This spring’s dramatic upheaval in the Middle East

AND

are congenial to its long-term security.

Resource scarcity and environmental conflicts will escalate globally.

De Souza 11

Mike, National affairs reporter; BA from Concordia University, “Energy-starved future looms, military warns” Postmedia News 4/18 http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Energy+starved+future+looms+military+warns/4634442/story.html

The planet is running out of oil and

AND

environmental change are factors with the highest potential impacts

A U.S. liberal leadership is critical to effective international institutions and cooperation that solves all global problems and great power conflict – there is no effective alternative.

Kromah 9

(Lamii Moivi Kromah, Department of International Relations University of the Witwatersrand, February 2009, “The Institutional Nature of U.S. Hegemony: Post 9/11”, http://wiredspace.wits.ac.za/bitstream/handle/10539/7301/MARR%2009.pdf)

A final major gain to the United States

AND

without a broad measure of international security. 57

Nuclear War

Dyer 4

Gwynne, in Military and History at  

Toronto Star, The End of War, 12/30/04, http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1230-05.htm

War is deeply embedded in our history and

AND

within the context of the existing state system.

Independently, renewed Russian aggression threatens global nuclear war.

Blank 9

Dr. Stephen Blank, Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College. March 2009. “Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?,” online: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf

Proliferators or nuclear states like China and Russia

AND

on their neighbors or their own people.172

And, their impact defense no longer applies.

Palmer 1/12

Alex Palmer. “Russia Rising”. January 12, 2012. Harvard International Review. http://hir.harvard.edu/politics-of-disease/russia-rising?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+HarvardInternationalReview+%28Harvard+International+Review%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

At a time of uncertainty around the world

AND

end of every winter comes a new spring.

Only scenario for extinction

Bostrom 2

Nick, PhD, Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9, March 2002, http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html

A much greater existential risk emerged with the

AND

that we will encounter in the 21st century.

And miscalc leads to extinction

Engdahl 7

F. William, February 18, pg. http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/engdahl/2007/0218.html

Putin also did not have North Korea,

AND

perhaps, end human civilization in the process. 

Middle east war goes nuclear—causes extinction

London ‘10

Herbert London is president of Hudson Institute and professor emeritus of New York University. “The Coming Crisis In The Middle East”. The Hudson Institute. June 28, 2010. http://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east

The coming storm in the Middle East is

AND

the Iranian leadership looks to with imperial exhilaration.

Worst possible time for a Middle East war—Saudi Arabia and Iran are struggling for control—means they use any conflict as a cover and any tension immediately escalates to conflict

Kinzer 10/20 - professor of IR at Boston University

Stephen, author of "Reset: Iran, Turkey, and America's Future," The NYT "Iran, the Saudis and the New 'Great Game'" www.nytimes.com/2011/10/21/opinion/21iht-edkinzer21.html?_r=1 AD 10/20/11

Whether the Iranian government actually sought to hire

AND

be shaped by this semi-clandestine war.

*1AC Solvency*

Contention __: Solvency

U.S. support for transparency and accountability within the NTC and bottom up support for civil society is essential to effective transition and militia integration – USAID now, but limited to $5 million

Engel 2/21

Andrew Engel, a former research assistant at The Washington Institute, is a master's candidate in security studies at Georgetown University and a private consultant. He traveled across Libya immediately after its official liberation. “Libya's Floundering Transition”. February 21, 2012. Washington Institute for Near East Policy. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3454

Washington should help improve conditions on the ground

AND

and the clock is ticking as elections approach.

The next few months are essential for solidifying the NTC and co-opting the militias for successful transition – U.S. technical assistance is essential to incorporating the periphery of Libyan society and ensuring U.S. influence – they will say yes.

Pack and Barfi February ‘12

Jason Pack, president of Libya-Analysis.com, has worked in Tripoli and Washington on promoting commercial and diplomatic relations between the United States and Libya. His articles have appeared in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy, and the Guardian, and Barak Barfi is a research fellow with the New America Foundation, specializing in Arab and Islamic affairs. “In War’s Wake: The Struggle for Post-Qadhafi Libya”. February 2012. The Washington Institute. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus118.pdf

Lacking civil society institutions and local governance,

AND

would also fundamentally jeopardize Western interests in Libya.

The NTC has the political and economic tools to co-opt and integrate militia fighters – U.S. technical assistance is key.

Pack and Barfi February ‘12

Jason Pack, president of Libya-Analysis.com, has worked in Tripoli and Washington on promoting commercial and diplomatic relations between the United States and Libya. His articles have appeared in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy, and the Guardian, and Barak Barfi is a research fellow with the New America Foundation, specializing in Arab and Islamic affairs. “In War’s Wake: The Struggle for Post-Qadhafi Libya”. February 2012. The Washington Institute. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus118.pdf

Yet despite the lack of a viable alternative

AND

posts of interior and defense minister, respectively.

Anti-corruption is a pre-requisite to effective foreign aid- only the US has the infrastructure

Diamond, ‘8

(Larry, Senior fellow at the Hoover Institute “End Foreign Aid As We Know It,” Democracy Journal, No 8, Spring 2008, http://www.democracyjournal.org/8/6584.php)

But these new principles still govern only a

AND

projects, and thus slow to send money.

They would say yes.

Pack and Barfi February ‘12

Jason Pack, president of Libya-Analysis.com, has worked in Tripoli and Washington on promoting commercial and diplomatic relations between the United States and Libya. His articles have appeared in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy, and the Guardian, and Barak Barfi is a research fellow with the New America Foundation, specializing in Arab and Islamic affairs. “In War’s Wake: The Struggle for Post-Qadhafi Libya”. February 2012. The Washington Institute. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus118.pdf

Provide experts to interface with the Libyan government

AND

for assistance in their struggle against the periphery.

The plan is key – it reinvigorates our national strategy in line with our traditional values.

Lajeunesse ‘11                                  

Gabriel Lajeunesse, Writer, Advocate. “The Arab Spring and the Illusion of a Pragmatic Approach to Foreign Policy”. October 12, 2011. The Huffington Post.

As Arab Spring moves into Arab Fall,

AND

Arab, or African, or Asian Spring.

Weak influence from lead from behind destroys credibility – emboldens adversaries

Hulett ‘11

Sue, Richard P. and Sophia D. Henke Distinguished Professor of Political Science and chair of the Political Science Department at Knox College. 9/3/2011. “Sue Hulett: Has Obama abandoned global leadership?”, http://www.galesburg.com/newsnow/x1638741805/Sue-Hulett-Has-Obama-abandoned-global-leadership

We also know a bit more about Obama’s

AND

leadership on behalf of promoting democracy and liberty.  

Doesn’t solve signal –need a US govt action to repair—that’s

Pozen, 6

David E. Pozen, J.D. @ Yale Law School. “Remapping the Charitable Deduction”. December 2006. 39 Conn. L. Rev. 531. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=900061

While I have seen no other commentators identify

AND

mitigating oversight burdens and other foreign policy concerns.

The U.S. is key –NGOs will fail.

Donnelly ‘11

(Shaun, former USTR for the Middle East and Europe, “The Neglected Pillar: America’s Economic Agenda in the Middle East,” 6-22-11, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3373)

Fighting corruption. Citizens across the Middle East

AND

business groups, along with strong policy advocacy.

CP Links to politics—Congress opposes removing restrictions

Crimm, Professor - Law - St. John's, ‘5

(Democratization, Global Grant-Making, and the Internal Revenue Code Lobbying Restrictions, 79 Tul. L. Rev. 587

The reluctance to support section 501(c

AND

exists to consider relaxation of the tax constraints.

1AR

Doesn’t solve Credibility – U.S. groups must be on the ground and encourage democratic and peaceful transition.

Wittes ‘8

Tamara Cofman Wittes, director of the Middle East Democracy and Development (MEDD) Project at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, a regional policy center at The Brookings Institution. 2008. Freedom’s Unstead March: America’s Role in Building Arab Democracy. P.120. GoogleBooks.

Despite the failings of the Middle East Partnership

AND

. official attention when they need diplomatic backup.

CP links to politics.

Mankiw ‘7

Greg Mankiw, professor of economics at Harvard University. “An Alternative to Foreign Aid”. October 20, 2007. http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2007/10/alternative-to-foreign-aid.html

Justin Muzinich and Eric Werker (the latter

AND

jobs to third-world sweatshops tax credit."

Tax Incentives links to politics

Congressional rules require tax incentives to be paid for in the budget

Geman 10

Ben Geman. 07/21/10  http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/677-e2-wire/110003-senate-looks-to-debate-something-on-energy-

“The Senate bill could include more than

AND

industry to offset the cost,” FBR notes.

1AR Rd5 - Lugar DACIdeology means Jackson-Vanik won’t be repealed—PC doesn’t work either and not top of the agenda.

RIA Novosti 3/28

Anti-Russian Amendment Now Headache for U.S., Factiva

Economic sanctions against Russia imposed by the United

AND

strategy would yield fast results, he said.

$2 million to Syria

AFP 3/8

"US gives $2mn more in Syrian humanitarian aid," www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iNPyWCad2Pw826GpTBbWCeyQsxgA?docId=CNG.dcf4e1ff214c7edb4b729f3f0e811a44.41

GENEVA — The United States said Thursday it

AND

and Syrian envoys as "positive and dynamic."

Only pass will Magnitsky – Obama can’t block it.

WSJ 3/20

After Jackson-Vanik; A bipartisan challenge to Obama's blind spot on rights in Russia, Factiva

The Obama Administration's "reset" with Russia has muffled concerns over human rights and democracy and dwelled on business palatable to the Kremlin like nuclear proliferation and trade. The Senate now has an opportunity to restore balance to this relationship.

Days after Vladimir Putin won another manipulated election

AND

can't afford to annoy authoritarian regimes this way.

If they attach the Maginstky bill—tanks relations

Butler 3/16

Desmond, staff writer, Senators push Russia trade restriction replacement, http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-03/D9THT70G2.htm

The Obama administration is seeking the repeal urgently

AND

alone or in combination with the Magnitsky bill.

Multiple Issues Will thump the DA

--jobs bill

--econ

--budget

--transportation

--VAWA

--healthcare

National Journaly Daily 3/18

Budgets, Jobs, and Highways Fill Week’s Agenda, Factiva

Election-year gamesmanship will dominate Congress this

AND

that would force caps on medical malpractice awards.

The plan is bipartisan

Margon 11

Sarah Margon is the Associate Director for Sustainable Security at American Progress., 8/22, “Libya Will Still Need Help After Qaddafi’s Departure”, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/08/libya_next_stage.html

Going forward, the United States must once

AND

can’t afford to do it any other way.

Winners win.

Marshall and Prins ’11 – Associate Professors of Political Science

Bryan W Marshall, associate professor of political science at Miami Universityand Brandon C Prins, associate professor of political science at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville& Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, “Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force”. September 2011.  Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3.

Presidents rely heavily on Congress in converting their

AND

managing political capital at home (Fordham 2002).

And, its been on the books for decades – empirically disproves their internal link.

Ivanov 8/13

Eugene Ivanov. April 13, 2011. “Looking beyond the reset”. Russia Beyond the Headlines. http://rbth.ru/articles/2011/04/13/looking_beyond_the_reset_12690.html

Equally important, the “reset” has

AND

to deal with the whole spectrum of relations.

Russia is unlikely to cooperate with the U.S. on any major initiatives.

Shleifer and Treisman ’11 – Professor of Economic at Harvard and Professor of PoliSci at UCLA

Andrei Shleifer, Professor of Economics at Harvard University, and Daniel Treisman, Professor of Political Science at the University of California,Los Angeles, and a Visiting Fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna. “Why Moscow Says No: A Question of Russian Interests, Not Psychology”. Foreign Affairs. Jan/Feb 2011. Vol. 90, Iss. 1; pg. 122. ProQuest.

With very few exceptions, Russia does not

AND

the Czech Republic than in the United States.

1AR

Congress votes on ideological party lines – the president is powerless.

Klein 3/19

Ezra Klein. “The Unpersuaded: Who Listen’s to the President”. March 19, 2012. The New Yorker. http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012/03/19/120319fa_fact_klein?currentPage=all

The American system has traditionally had certain features

AND

the incentive and the power to resist him.

alone or in combination with the Magnitsky bill. Jackson Vanik worsens relations

AP 3/27

US trade upgrade may worsen relations with Russia, http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5haRDYl_wxvUHQ2SGzhfBvaXW9z7g?docId=633ce0bb28a14581846aed8821fbce94

The Obama administration wants Congress to remove Soviet

AND

administration. They call it the "reset."

Maginstky Bill will tank relations

Adamonis 3/15

Mark, 25-year old writer based in Washington DC who holds degrees in Russian studies from both Harvard and Oxford, It's Time to End the Jackson-Vanik Amendment, http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2012/03/15/its-time-to-end-the-jackson-vanik-amendment/

What is most ridiculous about this entire flare

AND

will be less interested in cooperating with us.

Amendments still harm relations

NYT 2/27

 "A Costly Anachronism," www.nytimes.com/2012/02/28/opinion/a-costly-anachronism.html

This is not an easy time for President

AND

expose a huge tax fraud by government officials.

Any replacement to Jackson Vanik will tank relations—Deputy Foreign Minister says

Thai News Service 3/23

Russia vs. substitutions of Jackson-Vanik Amendment, Factiva

Moscow is against any replacements of the Cold

AND

of Russia-U.S. trade relations

Frameworks that focus exclusively on ontology and epistemology trade off with evaluations of policy to make the world better

Owen 2

David, Reader in Political Theory at the University of Southampton, Reorienting International Relations: On Pragmatism, Pluralism and Practical Reasoning”, Millennium: Journal of International Studies, Vol. 31, No. 3,

Commenting on the ‘philosophical turn’ in IR

AND

circle that they can, collectively, generate.

Their epistemology and impact claims are wrong—their alternative does nothing to solve war but our epistemology is sufficient to solve their impact

Lind 5

Michael, Executive Editor of the National Interest, “Of Arms and the Woman,” Jan 20, http://feminism.eserver.org/of-arms-and-the-woman.txt

This recurrent focus on little sisterhoods, mobilizing

AND

their own counsel and study war no more.

Changing representational practices won’t alter policy—looking to structures and politics is more vital

Tuathail 96

 Professor of Geography at Virginia Polytechnic Institute, 96  (Gearoid, Political Geography, Vol 15 No 6-7, p. 664, Science Direct)

While theoretical debates at academic conferences  are important

AND

open to the patterned mess that is  human history

No single cause of conflict

Barnett et al 7

Michael, Hunjoon Kim, Madalene O’Donnell, Laura Sitea, Global Governance, “Peacebuilding: What is in a Name?”, Questia

Because there are multiple contributing causes of conflict

AND

for claiming that they are an invaluable partner.

to face.

Same as Round 2

The type of research they talk about is but one tool of policymaking—we can be guided by other thigns and don’t even need to know why something happens to make good guesses about outcomes

Walt 2005

(“The relationship between theory and policy in international relations” Annual review of political science, 23-48)

Policy decisions can be influenced by several types

AND

or if our explanations for them are incorrect.

Our knowledge claims have value even if they are imperfect, and methodological pluralism is better than pure reflectivism.

Niarguinen ‘1

Dmitri, IR at Central European University, Transforming Realism: Irreducible Core Gives Life to New Interpretations

and Flexible Incarnations, RUBIKON E-JOURNAL, December 2001, the original website is inactive but remains available at

http://web.archive.org/web/20060503234134/http://venus.ci.uw.edu.pl/~rubikon/forum/dmitri.htm.

For the genuine link between constructivism and Realism

AND

politics”[71]. Ergo, ita est.

***END OF ARTICLE***LAST FOOTNOTE CITES THE GUZZINI EVIDENCE

Reliance on data doesn’t ensure objectivity – number twisting means they link to all of their criticisms

Lashway 1

Educational Indicators, ERIC Diges, http://www.ericdigests.org/2002-2/indicators.htm

Although indicators hold out the promise of improved

AND

done at this level (Abby Goodnough 2001).

***Predictions don’t have to be perfect, but they can be accurate enough to act on.

Mesquita ‘11

Bruce Bueno De Mesquita, Julius Silver Professor of Politics at New York University, July 18, 2011. “Fox-Hedging or Knowing: One Big Way to Know Many Things. http://www.cato-unbound.org/2011/07/18/bruce-bueno-de-mesquita/fox-hedging-or-knowing-one-big-way-to-know-many-things/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+cato-unbound+%28Cato+Unbound%29

It is hard to say which is more

AND

of evidence, we progress toward better prediction.

The body of experts can predict outcomes, even if individual predictions are wrong

Cowen ‘5 – Professor of Economics @ George Mason

(Tyler, Professor of Economics at George Mason, Marginal Revolution, December 5, http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2005/12/dont_trust_expe.html)

And yes Tetlock has data, drawing upon

AND

find that point in Jonathan Swift's Gulliver's Travels.

Elevating Human extinction to a real possibility encourages a new social ethic to solve conflicts and create meaning to life.

Epstein and Zhao in ‘9

Richard J. Epstein and Y. Zhao, Laboratory of Computational Oncology,Department of Medicine,University of Hong Kong, Professorial

Block,Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong. “The Threat That Dare Not Speak Its Name: Human Extinction”. Perspectives in Biology and Medicine, volume 52, number 1 (winter 2009):116–25. Project Muse.

Final ends for all species are the same

AND

as “human nature” (Tudge 1989).

Predictions good on balance for Mid East political forecasting

Chadwick ‘11

Bruce P. Chadwick, PhD, CFA, is principal at Chadwick Global Research and Consulting, an independent consulting firm specializing in macro strategy, including quantitative, emerging market, and SRI research. July 6, 2011.

When Worldview covered Egypt in autumn 2009,

AND

to macro opportunities and more adaptive risk management.

AT: Epistemology

Prioritizing epistemology and ontology trades off with attempts to undertake good actions

Owen 2

David, Reader in Political Theory at the University of Southampton, Reorienting International Relations: On Pragmatism, Pluralism and Practical Reasoning”, Millennium: Journal of International Studies, Vol. 31, No. 3,

Commenting on the ‘philosophical turn’ in IR

AND

circle that they can, collectively, generate.

Their epistemology and impact claims are wrong—their alternative does nothing to solve war but our epistemology is sufficient to solve their impact

Lind 5

Michael, Executive Editor of the National Interest, “Of Arms and the Woman,” Jan 20, http://feminism.eserver.org/of-arms-and-the-woman.txt

This recurrent focus on little sisterhoods, mobilizing

AND

their own counsel and study war no more.

No single cause of conflict

Barnett et al 7

Michael, Hunjoon Kim, Madalene O’Donnell, Laura Sitea, Global Governance, “Peacebuilding: What is in a Name?”, Questia

Because there are multiple contributing causes of conflict

AND

for claiming that they are an invaluable partner.

Aff doesn’t import gendered biases - Aid providers have shifted from a one institution fits all to best institutions.

Carothers and Gramont ‘11

Thomas Carothers, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is the founder and director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program and Diane de Gramont, a research assistant in the Carnegie Democracy and Rule of Law Program. November 2011. “Aiding Governance in Developing Countries: Progress Amid Uncertainties”. Carnegie Endowment. http://carnegieendowment.org/files/aiding_governance.pdf

Governance aid initially focused on building best practice

AND

for the specific context in which they operate.

And, Democracy aid empirically works—means that even if USAID is gendered it’s not doomed to fail

Scott and Steele '11

James M. and Carie A., "Sponsoring Democracy: The United States and Democracy Aid to the Developing World, 1988-2001," International Studies Quarterly 55, March 2011, onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2010.00635.x/pdf AD 10/17/11 p.19-21

Analysis and Conclusions Can democratic sponsor states such

AND

democracy would do well to structure assistance accordingly.

We have to solve large-scale violent conflicts before we can focus on everyday forms of violence – they’re a key barrier to peace

Goldstein 1

Joshua Goldstein, Int’l Rel Prof @ American U, 2001, War and Gender, p. 412

First, peace activists face a dilemma in

AND

cause of war seems to be empirically inadequate.

Nuclear conflict outweighs.

Hanson 8

Victor Davis, senior fellow @ the Hoover Institution, January 14, pg. http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=M2VhN2VmNzYxN2Q2YjM0M2UyYmNlZGI0NzhkZTFiYjQ=&w=MQ==

Despite the scare capitals, I doubt whether

AND

likely be outrage rather than the present silence.

Negative peace should be our first priority because the stakes are human survival.

Boulding ‘90

Kenneth E. Boulding, Prof UC Boulder Conflict: Readings in Management and Resolution, Ed: John Burton, 1990, pg. 40-41.

Then, do we go from here?

AND

in technology either of war or of peace.

Apocalyptic imagery is GOOD. By showing how current institutions are fallible, it catalyzes social change and creates an ethos of preventive foresight.

Kurasawa ‘4

(Fuyuki, Assistant Professor of Sociology at York University, “Cautionary Tales: The Global Culture of Prevention and the Work of Foresight,” Constellations, 11:4, p. 457-8)

Returning to the point I made at the

AND

of the question that we need to tackle.

Rejection of prediction dooms all policymaking, including the implementation of their alternative.

Chernoff ‘5

Fred, PhDs in Philosophy and Political Science, Prof. of Political Science at Colgate, THE POWER OF INTERNATIONAL THEORY, p. 9

Various IR theorists have also argued against prediction

AND

to show how such beliefs can be justified.

We meet – plan says ‘democratic governance’, even if they win not all of good governance is democracy assistance the plan would be.

Phillips and Mitchell ‘8

David L. Phillips is a project director of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy and currently a visiting scholar at Columbia University’s Center for the Study of Human Rights, and Lincoln A. Mitchell is the Arnold A. Saltzman Assistant Professor in the Practice of International Politics at Columbia University’s School of International and Political Affairs. “Enhancing Democracy Assistance”. January 2008. www.acus.org/files/.../Enhancing%20Democracy%20Assistance.pdf

This report offers recommendations to hone proven approaches to democracy assistance, specifically, programs that strengthen civil society, prepare elections, assist political party development, and support democratic governance. It also identifies different regime types that are the focus of democracy assistance -- authoritarian states, illiberal democracies, free-wheeling kleptocracies, and post-conflict states. While recognizing that the distinctions among them are not iron-clad, the report offers context-specific recommendations for each.

Democracy assistance is all aid for the primary purpose of democracy – three categories: Political Process, Governing Institutions, and Civil Society.

Carothers ‘2k

Thomas Carothers, he vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is the founder and director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program and leading authority on democracy promotion and democratization worldwide as well as an expert on U.S. foreign policy. “Taking stock of democracy assistance”, in: M. Cox, G. J. Ikenberry & T. Inoguchi, (Eds) American Democracy Promotion. Impulses, Strategies, and Impacts. 2000. Questia. P.188

The term 'democracy assistance' is sometimes used broadly

AND

seminars on democracy, and educational exchange programmes.

$2 million to Syria

AFP 3/8

"US gives $2mn more in Syrian humanitarian aid," www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iNPyWCad2Pw826GpTBbWCeyQsxgA?docId=CNG.dcf4e1ff214c7edb4b729f3f0e811a44.41

GENEVA — The United States said Thursday it

AND

and Syrian envoys as "positive and dynamic."

Zero probability both sides got what they wanted

Goldberg 3/5

Jeffrey, national correspondent for The Atlantic and a recipient of the National Magazine Award for ReportingPBS interview conducted by Gwen Ifill, "As U.S., Israel Navigate Tensions Over Iran, Are 'All Options on the Table?'," 3/5/12 www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/world/jan-june12/israel2_03-05.html, AD 3/8/12

GWEN IFILL: For more on the growing

AND

to the United States or to anyone else.

Obama ensures relations will deteriorate – predictive

Miller 1/2

 Aaron David, public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, "Bibi and Barack" LA Times, www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-miller-bibi-barack-20120102,0,7709106.story, AD 1/2/2012

Barack Obama has an Israel problem. Almost

AND

remaining hope for a two-state solution.

The US-Israel relationship is resilient.

Donilon ‘11

Thomas E. Donilon has served as assistant to the president for national security affairs since October 2010. “Michael Stein Address on U.S. Middle East Policy”. May 13, 2011. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/Soref2011Proceedings.pdf

The U.S.-Israel relationship is

AND

Israeli defense officials visit us just as often.

No Israeli strikes

Dobbins 3/5

James, director of the RAND international security and defense policy center, held State Department and White House posts including Assistant Secretary of State for Europe, Special Assistant to the President, Special Adviser to the President and Secretary of State for the Balkans, and Ambassador to the European Community. 3/5 PBS interview conducted by Gwen Ifill, "As U.S., Israel Navigate Tensions Over Iran, Are 'All Options on the Table?'," 3/5/12 www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/world/jan-june12/israel2_03-05.html, AD 3/8/12

GWEN IFILL: Now, these meetings at

AND

summer, it's less likely than it was.

Strikes would stay conventional – means no escalation.

Halpern 7

(Micah, April 26, pg. http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/Read.aspx?GUID={85E6D292-394A-4797-A440-8769E2FA3873})

A preemptive strike by Israel against Iran would

AND

service to the forces of power ruling Iran.

Aid now to Libya, including the USAID, but doesn't include capacity building and governance.

Pack and Barfi February ‘12

Jason Pack, president of Libya-Analysis.com, has worked in Tripoli and Washington on promoting commercial and diplomatic relations between the United States and Libya. His articles have appeared in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy, and the Guardian, and Barak Barfi is a research fellow with the New America Foundation, specializing in Arab and Islamic affairs. “In War’s Wake: The Struggle for Post-Qadhafi Libya”. February 2012. The Washington Institute. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus118.pdf

On the American side, bureaucratic and political

AND

little to capacity building or vocational training.107

Aid now to Libya, including the USAID, but doesn't include capacity building and governance.

Pack and Barfi February ‘12

Jason Pack, president of Libya-Analysis.com, has worked in Tripoli and Washington on promoting commercial and diplomatic relations between the United States and Libya. His articles have appeared in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy, and the Guardian, and Barak Barfi is a research fellow with the New America Foundation, specializing in Arab and Islamic affairs. “In War’s Wake: The Struggle for Post-Qadhafi Libya”. February 2012. The Washington Institute. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus118.pdf

On the American side, bureaucratic and political

AND

little to capacity building or vocational training.107

Obama win—polls

All Voices 3/22

Half of Americans expect Obama’s re-election, but less than half would vote for him http://www.allvoices.com/contributed-news/11769807-half-of-americans-expect-obamas-reelection-but-less-than-half-would-vote-for-him

As the Republican candidates fight it out to

AND

, while 37 percent expected him to lose.

New Foreign Ops bill passed in December.

USGLC 12/21

U.S. Global Leadership Coalition. December 21, 2011. “International Affairs Budget Update”.

http://www.usglc.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/USGLC-IAB-Budge-Update-12-21-11-FINAL.pdf

On December 17, Congress cleared for the

AND

the package into law today or tomorrow.   

That’s funds the plan.

USGLC 12/21

U.S. Global Leadership Coalition. December 21, 2011. “International Affairs Budget Update”.

http://www.usglc.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/USGLC-IAB-Budge-Update-12-21-11-FINAL.pdf

Overseas Contingency Operations The OCO funding level is

AND

freeing up additional funding under the base budget.

No increased risk of nuclear war from prolif

Gavin 10

Francis. Professor of International Affairs and Director of the Robert S. Strauss Center for International Security and Law, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, University of Texas at Austin. Same As It Ever Was: Nuclear Alarmism, Proliferation, and the Cold War. International Security. Winter 2009/2010. Muse.

Throughout the post–World War II period

AND

highly unlikely.38 [End Page 16] 

Aid now to Libya, including the USAID, but doesn't include capacity building and governance.

Pack and Barfi February ‘12

Jason Pack, president of Libya-Analysis.com, has worked in Tripoli and Washington on promoting commercial and diplomatic relations between the United States and Libya. His articles have appeared in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy, and the Guardian, and Barak Barfi is a research fellow with the New America Foundation, specializing in Arab and Islamic affairs. “In War’s Wake: The Struggle for Post-Qadhafi Libya”. February 2012. The Washington Institute. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus118.pdf

On the American side, bureaucratic and political

AND

little to capacity building or vocational training.107

And, their impact defense no longer applies.

Palmer 1/12

Alex Palmer. “Russia Rising”. January 12, 2012. Harvard International Review. http://hir.harvard.edu/politics-of-disease/russia-rising?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+HarvardInternationalReview+%28Harvard+International+Review%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

At a time of uncertainty around the world

AND

end of every winter comes a new spring.

And miscalc leads to extinction

Engdahl 7

F. William, February 18, pg. http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/engdahl/2007/0218.html

Putin also did not have North Korea,

AND

perhaps, end human civilization in the process. 

1AC Same as wiki

Topicality

2AC Support Not T

We meet – plan says ‘democratic governance’, even if they win not all of good governance is democracy assistance the plan would be.

Phillips and Mitchell ‘8

David L. Phillips is a project director of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy and currently a visiting scholar at Columbia University’s Center for the Study of Human Rights, and Lincoln A. Mitchell is the Arnold A. Saltzman Assistant Professor in the Practice of International Politics at Columbia University’s School of International and Political Affairs. “Enhancing Democracy Assistance”. January 2008. www.acus.org/files/.../Enhancing%20Democracy%20Assistance.pdf

This report offers recommendations to hone proven approaches

AND

report offers context-specific recommendations for each.

Democracy assistance is all aid for the primary purpose of democracy – three categories: Political Process, Governing Institutions, and Civil Society.

Carothers ‘2k

Thomas Carothers, he vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is the founder and director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program and leading authority on democracy promotion and democratization worldwide as well as an expert on U.S. foreign policy. “Taking stock of democracy assistance”, in: M. Cox, G. J. Ikenberry & T. Inoguchi, (Eds) American Democracy Promotion. Impulses, Strategies, and Impacts. 2000. Questia. P.188

The term 'democracy assistance' is sometimes used broadly

AND

seminars on democracy, and educational exchange programmes.

Support is assistance

Burnell 11

Peter, 9/12/11, email conversation w/ Layne Kirshon, http://nudebate.blogspot.com/

You are right. There are no definitive

AND

that it carries certain normative and other baggage.

Solvency

Aid agencies have begun adapting – they can target institutions that are open to reform and the conditions for reform – particularly true in Libya where their has been a change in the regime and who wants assistance.

Carothers and Gramont ‘11

Thomas Carothers, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is the founder and director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program and Diane de Gramont, a research assistant in the Carnegie Democracy and Rule of Law Program. November 2011. “Aiding Governance in Developing Countries: Progress Amid Uncertainties”. Carnegie Endowment. http://carnegieendowment.org/files/aiding_governance.pdf

Recognizing that governance deficiencies are usually rooted in

AND

water users in pushing for service improvements.17

2AC NATO

Economic focus means they stay looking domestically.

NATO key to European security and influence –economics prevent military buildup—this is their card

Rafnsso ‘11

Örvar Þorri Rafnsso (University of Iceland) February 2011 “Why Can We Get Rid of the Western European Union? European Collective Security and the Modified Brussels Treaty” http://skemman.is/en/item/view/1946/7269

NATO, along with the United States,

AND

however complicated that goal still looks at present.

The EU-US alliance is no longer critical to solving the world problems, and it will continue to decline due to leaders views about the alliances importance.

Helgesen ‘11

Vidar Helgesen, Secretary-General of International IDEA. “Reinvigorating the Infrastructure for Democracy Support: Strengthening multilateral mechanisms for coordinating and implementing democracy policy – what role for the EU and US”. March 3, 2011. http://www.idea.int/resources/analysis/upload/2011-03-03-International-IDEA-NDI-paper-final.pdf

Reviewing the transatlantic relationship and the potential to

AND

for renewed energy in transatlantic support to democracy.

2AC IRC CP

CP fails – government assistance is key.

Wittes ‘8

Tamara Cofman Wittes, director of the Middle East Democracy and Development (MEDD) Project at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, a regional policy center at The Brookings Institution. 2008. Freedom’s Unstead March: America’s Role in Building Arab Democracy. P.120. GoogleBooks.

Despite the failings of the Middle East Partnership

AND

. official attention when they need diplomatic backup.

CP Links to politics—Congress opposes removing restrictions

Crimm, Professor - Law - St. John's, ‘5

(Democratization, Global Grant-Making, and the Internal Revenue Code Lobbying Restrictions, 79 Tul. L. Rev. 587

The reluctance to support section 501(c

AND

exists to consider relaxation of the tax constraints.

Jackson Vanik

2AC J/V – Relations Generic

$2 million to Syria

AFP 3/8

"US gives $2mn more in Syrian humanitarian aid," www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iNPyWCad2Pw826GpTBbWCeyQsxgA?docId=CNG.dcf4e1ff214c7edb4b729f3f0e811a44.41

GENEVA — The United States said Thursday it

AND

and Syrian envoys as "positive and dynamic."

Ideology means Jackson-Vanik won’t be repealed—PC doesn’t work either and not top of the agenda.—their uqness is about the magnitsky bill

RIA Novosti 3/28

Anti-Russian Amendment Now Headache for U.S., Factiva

Economic sanctions against Russia imposed by the United

AND

strategy would yield fast results, he said.

New climate regs thump the disad.

Davenport 3/27

Coral Davenport. March 27, 2012. National Journal. “First major climate regs from Obama EPA sure to stir political debate”. http://www.govexec.com/oversight/2012/03/first-major-climate-regs-obama-epa-sure-stir-political-debate/41580/?oref=dropdown

The Obama administration is expected to unveil long

AND

led chamber would push hard to roll back.)

Only pass will Magnitsky – Obama can’t block it.

WSJ 3/20

After Jackson-Vanik; A bipartisan challenge to Obama's blind spot on rights in Russia, Factiva

The Obama Administration's "reset" with Russia has muffled concerns over human rights and democracy and dwelled on business palatable to the Kremlin like nuclear proliferation and trade. The Senate now has an opportunity to restore balance to this relationship.

Days after Vladimir Putin won another manipulated election

AND

can't afford to annoy authoritarian regimes this way.

If they attach the Maginstky bill—tanks relations

Butler 3/16

Desmond, staff writer, Senators push Russia trade restriction replacement, http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-03/D9THT70G2.htm

The Obama administration is seeking the repeal urgently

AND

alone or in combination with the Magnitsky bill.

Plan bipartisan

Margon 11

Sarah Margon is the Associate Director for Sustainable Security at American Progress., 8/22, “Libya Will Still Need Help After Qaddafi’s Departure”, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/08/libya_next_stage.html

Going forward, the United States must once

AND

can’t afford to do it any other way.

Removing Jackson Vanik won’t have any effect on the economy—their cards from 09

CFR 9

7/2/09, Reassessing the Jackson-Vanik Amendment http://www.cfr.org/trade/reassessing-jackson-vanik-amendment/p19734#p5

While experts agree that a U.S

AND

is you can't actually expect any real payoff."

*Sestanovich is a senior fellow @ CFR

Orientalism

Extinction comes first

Cummiskey ‘96

(David, Associate Philosophy Professor, Bates College, Kantian Consequentialism, p. 129-131)

It does, however, support the consequentialist

AND

with dignity who are saved, the better.

Frameworks that focus exclusively on representations trade off with efforts to make the world better

Owen 2

David, Reader in Political Theory at the University of Southampton, Reorienting International Relations: On Pragmatism, Pluralism and Practical Reasoning”, Millennium: Journal of International Studies, Vol. 31, No. 3, http://mil.sagepub.com/cgi/reprint/31/3/653

Commenting on the ‘philosophical turn’ in IR

AND

circle that they can, collectively, generate.

Our scholarship is good

Rushworth 12 - Graduate – London School of Economics and Political Science

Phillip, “Orientalism Revisited,” Al-bab, 2-23, http://www.al-bab.com/arab/articles/text/orientalism.htm

Evidence for the possibility of plausible representations of

AND

challenge Orientalism by conveying the complexity of events.

We should focus on cause and effect.  This doesn’t exclude debates over representations, but it means their K isn’t a trump card

Rotter ‘2k                  

(Andrew, Professor of History at Colgate, “Saidism without Said: Orientalism and U.S. Diplomatic History,” American Historical Review, 105(4), October)

For diplomatic historians, the link between cause

AND

attitude. War is not preeminently a discourse.

1AR

Extra Topicality Card

We meet—Democracy assistance does not have to be money.

Carothers ‘2k

Thomas Carothers, he vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is the founder and director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program and leading authority on democracy promotion and democratization worldwide as well as an expert on U.S. foreign policy. “Taking stock of democracy assistance”, in: M. Cox, G. J. Ikenberry & T. Inoguchi, (Eds) American Democracy Promotion. Impulses, Strategies, and Impacts. 2000. Questia. P.191

The term 'aid' conjures up the idea of

AND

to establish better legal protections for independent media.

Solvency

Studies

Best studies support the plan

Savun and Tirone 11 – *Professor of Political Science, **PhD Candidate @ Pitt

Burcu Savun is Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh,  Daniel C. Tirone is a Ph.D. Candidate in the Department of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh, “ Foreign Aid, Democratization, and Civil Conflict: How Does Democracy Aid Affect Civil Conflict,” American Journal of Political Science,” Volume 55, Issue 2, pages 233–246, April 2011

Scholars of intrastate conflict have shown that credible

AND

commitment problems during the early phases of democratization.

Topicality

2AC Support Not T

Support is assistance

Burnell 11

Peter, 9/12/11, email conversation w/ Layne Kirshon, http://nudebate.blogspot.com/

You are right. There are no definitive

AND

that it carries certain normative and other baggage.

Support is a synonym for assistance

Cornell, 8 - Department of Political Science, University of Gothenburg, Sweden (Agnes, “Does democracy aid promote democracy? ,” Paper presented at the 2nd ECPR Graduate Conference, Barcelona 25 - 27 August 2008, http://www.essex.ac.uk/ecpr/events/graduateconference/barcelona/papers/326.pdf

Footnote 5

5The terms used for the type of foreign aid that aims at strengthening democracy differ. Some authors usually use the term democracy assistance or democracy aid (Burnell 2000b; Carothers 1999) while other prefers the term democracy support (Dawidson and Hulterström 2006) or uses political aid and other terms (Crawford 2001; Youngs 2001). Other terms used are democracy-related assistance, democracy promotion, political assistance, political development aid and support for democratic development (Burnell 2000b, 4).  

Even if extinction is inevitable – taking steps to postpone it solves suffering and adds value to life.

Epstein and Zhao in ‘9

Richard J. Epstein and Y. Zhao, Laboratory of Computational Oncology,Department of Medicine,University of Hong Kong, Professorial

Block,Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong. “The Threat That Dare Not Speak Its Name: Human Extinction”. Perspectives in Biology and Medicine, volume 52, number 1 (winter 2009):116–25. Project Muse.

Human extinction is 100% certain—the

AND

minimizing the eventual cumulative burden of human suffering.

No single cause of conflict

Barnett et al 7

Michael, Hunjoon Kim, Madalene O’Donnell, Laura Sitea, Global Governance, “Peacebuilding: What is in a Name?”, Questia

Because there are multiple contributing causes of conflict

AND

for claiming that they are an invaluable partner.

Rejection doesn’t Solve

Kaufman ‘9

Stuart J Kaufman, professor of Political Science and International Relations at the University of Delaware. “Narratives and Symbols in Violent Mobilization: The Palestinian-Israeli Case”. Security Studies 18:3, 400 – 434

Even when hostile narratives, group fears,

AND

, chauvinist mobilization, and a security dilemma.

The role of the ballot is to simulate enactment of the plan. That’s the most productive way to engage Mid East politics

Heydemann ‘2, director – Program on Philanthropy and Nonprofit Sector @ Social Science Research Council, frmr Prof Poli Sci – Columbia,

(Steve, “Defending the Discipline,” Journal of Democracy Vol. 13, No. 3, Muse)

Though Kramer's book is severely flawed, 2

AND

Middle East during the course of the 1990s.

Taleb’s theory doesn’t apply to our predictions, and it doesn’t disprove the value predicting

Voeten ‘11

Erik Voeten, professor of geopolitics and global justice @ Georgetown SFS. “Similarities and Differences between Eastern Europe in 1989 and the Middle East in 2011”. 5/30/2011. http://themonkeycage.org/blog/2011/05/30/similarities-and-differences-between-eastern-europe-in-1989-and-the-middle-east-in-2011/

1)       Neither set of movements was predicted—even

2)       AND

3)       .  Social science still has much to offer.