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//Hooper 9/10

Molly K. Hooper, writer for The Hill. “Obama-backed trade pacts could be heavy lift for House GOP”. September 10, 2011. http://thehill.com/homenews/house/180751-obama-backed-trade-pacts-could-be-heavy-lift-for-house-gop

House Republican leaders face a tough

AND

 against this agreement – some are not freshmen, some are senior members,” the source said.

The plan has bipartisan support.

Bowman ‘11

Michael Bowman. “US Senators Urge Non

AND

Intervention-in-Syria-120569589.html

U.S. senators of both major

AND

U.S.] troops on the ground."

Bipartisanship is key to the agenda

Rottinghaus and Tedin 11 – Professors of Political Science

Brandon Rottinghaus, Professor of Political Science, and Kent L. Tedin, Professor of Political Science, 2011, “Presidential “Going Bipartisan,” Opposition Reaction and the Consequences for Political Opinions,” The Monkey Cage, http://www.themonkeycage.org/Going%20Bipartisan%20Final.pdf

As candidate and chief executive,

AND

the case in the 2010 lame duck Congress.

Winners win – Obama must look strong now.

Blow 9/9

Charles Blow, writer for the NYT.

AND

rise-of-the-fallen.html

So why does it feel as if we’ve

AND

middle: you take fire from both sides.

Other issues first – spending PC on jobs.

US News 9/12

Will Congress Pass Obama's Jobs Bill?, http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2011/09/12/will-congress-pass-obamas-jobs-bill

Thursday evening, President

AND

was not nearly enough to do the job and this proposal is even smaller."

Political capital not key to the agenda

-their evidence misuses the term

-ideological and partisan leanings outweigh

Dickinson 9 – Professor of Political Science

Matthew, professor of political science at Middlebury College and taught previously at Harvard University where he worked under the supervision of presidential scholar Richard Neustadt, 5-26-2009, Presidential Power: A NonPartisan Analysis of Presidential Politics, “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power,” http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/

As for Sotomayor, from here the path toward almost

AND

 calling every Senator or instead spends the next few weeks ignoring the Senate debate in order to play Halo III on his Xbox.

Despite Republican’s resistance to Obama initiatives and new spending, they will support democracy assistance.

Inboden ‘10

William Inboden is a Distinguished Scholar at the

AND

-a-consensus-on-democracy/

At first glance this might not be apparent

AND

a longstanding commitment to human rights and democracy.

The EU fails.

 – long chain of command and deconcentrated decision-making causes failure. 

Bicchi ‘10 

 Federica Bicchi is Lecturer in the International Relations of Europe at the Department of International Relations, London School of Economics. “Dilemmas of implementation: EU democracy assistance in the Mediterranean”. Democratization Volume 17, Issue 5, 2010. Taylor and Francis Online.  This issue is worth exploring from the perspective suggested here because  AND  of several (intentional) choices by individuals who defined both the EU's best interest, and their own position in relation to it, in various and divergent ways. 

The perm solves the net-benefit – influence isn’t zero-sum. 

Grant ‘3 

 Charles Grant is director of the CER. Centre for European Reform. “The Decline of American Power”. April/May 2003. CER Bulletin, Issue 29.  When the war is over, the western allies will  ANd  with more power hard and soft on both sides of the Atlantic. 

Even if the EU has influence it lacks the ability to be a significant actor on the world stage – means it can’t solve

 - complexity of the EU’s decision-making machinery 

 - requires the consent of all Member states, which blocks agreements on action 

Smith ‘3 

 Karen E. Smith, Lecturer in International 

 AND 

 9.2/EU/Smith.pdf  The EU has a considerable “presence”  AND  expectations that the EU will take effective action. 

EU-level response will be undercut by unilateral actions of the members – means the CP can’t solve.

Koenig 11 

 Nicole Koenig is a Marie Curie PhD Fellow at the Istituto Affari Internazionali, “The EU and the Libyan Crisis: In Quest of Coherence?”, July 2011,  The Libyan crisis has revealed that interests, national  AND  another organization if the member states stand behind this decision.

Contention 1:

Contention 1: Assad

Assad is on the brink of collapse –

a. Professional and Business classes are beginning to support the opposition – they are the key pillars of his support.

Ismail 8/26 

 Salwa Ismail, professor of politics with reference to the Middle East at the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London. “Bashar al-Assad's fall is inevitable”. The Guardian. August 26, 2011.  The dramatic developments in Libya  AND  despised authoritarian regime. 

Protests are growing and circling the regime.

Smith 8/1 

 Lee Smith, Senior Editor for the Weekly Standard. “Free Syria”. August 1, 2011. The Weekly Standard. Vol 16 No 43.  Since March, the uprising  AND  after almost five months of rebellion. = Advantage 1: = 

Advantage 1: Lashout

Perceived collapse of the regime will cause Assad to destabilize Lebanon – sectarianism makes Lebanon a tinderbox for a broader conflict.

Zambelis 8/6 

 Chris Zambelis is an author and researcher with Helios Global, Inc, a risk management group based in the Washington, DC area. “Syrian unrest dries Lebanese tinderbox”. August 6, 2011. Asia Times Online.  According to the logic expressed by  AND  at each other's expense. 

He will provoke a war with Israel – the conflict will escalate throughout the region involving Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas, and increasing the risk Assad will use chemical and biological weapons and Israel will use nuclear weapons in response.

Ceren 8/1 Omri Ceren, a Ph.D. candidate studying rhetoric, argumentation, and media at the University of Southern California's Annenberg School of Communication, founder and editor of Mere Rhetoric, a political blog dealing with the geopolitical, cultural, and economic dimensions of the global war between the West and political Islam. He's been published in international outlets such as the Jerusalem Post, and his investigative journalism has been cited by the Associated Press, Reuters, CNN, the BBC, the New York Times, and other outlets. “Just How Bad Could a Syrian Collapse Get?”. August 1, 2011. Commentary Magazine.  But the continued stability of the Syrian regime  AND  politicians to overreact less. 

Syrian CBW attack on Israel escalates to nuclear war.

Joshi 2k 

 Sharad Joshi, Ph.D candidate. "Israel's Nuclear Policy: A Cost-Benefit Analysis," March 2000, , accessed 8-4-11, mss]  The Syrian chemical arsenal should  AND a nuclear Armageddon. 

Syria has stocks of small-pox – an attack would go global.

Bellamy-Decker ‘7 – Directs the Public Health Preparedness for the European Homeland Security Association 

 Jill Bellamy-Decker currently directs the Public Health Preparedness program for the European Homeland Security Association under the French High Committee for Civil Defense. Jerome R. Corsi. “Syria ready with bio-terror if U.S. hits Iran”. World Net Daily. March 5, 2007.  Bellamy-Decker currently directs the Public Health Preparedness program  AND  last outbreak back in 1972." 

Small pox use threatens extinction.

Singer ‘1 – Professor of Nuclear Engineering and Director of Program in Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security 

 Clifford Singer, a professor of nuclear engineering and director of the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security at the University of Illinois at Urbana—Champaign. “Will Mankind Survive the Millennium?”. Swords and Ploughshares series Vol. XIII, No. 1, Spring 2001 P.7.  There are, however, two  AND  if this is achieved. 

Small pox would be particularly devastating – the population is no longer vaccinated.

Spector ‘10 

 Leonard S. Spector is Deputy Director of the Monterey Institute of International Studies' James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. “Slowing Proliferation: Why Legal Tools Matter”. Vermont Law Review Spring 2010. 34 Vt. L. Rev. 619. Lexis.  And in the area of  AND  as little as two years. 

A new Arab-Israeli conflict goes global.

Primakov ‘9 - Doctor of Economics, Professor, executive member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Head of the Center for Situational Analysis at the Russian Academy of Sciences 

 Yevgeny Primakov is President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation; Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences; member of the Editorial Board of Russia in Global Affairs. The Fundamental Conflict: The Middle East Problem in the Context of International Relations. Russia in Global Affairs Vol 7 No 3. 2009.  The Middle East conflict is  AND  rule out such a possibility. 

New conflict will escalate.

Singh 9/22 

 Michael Singh, managing director of The Washington Institute and a former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council.. “What has really changed in the Middle East?”. Shadow Government. September 22, 2011. Shadow Government Blog @ Foreign Policy.  Third, and most  AND  primacy into overdrive. 

War in the Middle East is comparatively most probable and has the highest magnitude

Ferguson 7 – Professor of History @ Harvard University 

Niall, 6/17,   For some time I  AND  recipe for Armageddon. = Advantage 2: = 

Despite calls for reform Russia continue its relationship with Assad

Kuchma 8/24 

 Maria Kuchma. RIA Novosti. “Conflicting interests paralyze Russian diplomacy on Syria: analysts”. August 24, 2011.  Last week, after U.S. and  AND  worsening of those relations." 

Russia will continue arms sales to Syria.

Reuters 8/18 

 The Moscow Times. August 18, 2011. “Rosoboronexport to Sell Arms to Syria”.  State arms exporter Rosoboronexport said  AND  Russia's Yak-130 light attack fighter plane. 

The collapse of Assad would end Russia’s arms sales and naval basing in Syria.

Lukanin ‘11 

 Mikhail Lukanin. “Syria Will Leave Russia Without A Military Ally”. Defense & Security, No. 191, April 29, 2011. 

 It seems that the latest events in Syria have started developing according to the Libyan scenario.  Experts presume that if  AND  money on social needs. 

Lose of arms sales to Syria would force Russia to sell arms to other countries in the Middle East, particularly Iran.

Karasik ‘11 

 Dr. Theodore Karasik, Director for Research and Development and is responsible for INEGMA’s consultancy on a wide range of intellectual and defense topics. “Russia's Plight During the Arab Spring: Libya and Syria”. July 12, 2011. The Gulf Intelligence.  Second, the Kremlin sees  AND  in the Eastern Mediterranean. 

Russian arms sales to Iran will cause a new arms race in the Gulf and causes miscalculation between the U.S. and Russia.

Klare ‘9 

 Michael Klare, a Five Colleges professor of Peace and World Security Studies, whose department is located at Hampshire College, defense correspondent of The Nation magazine,. Rising powers, shrinking planet: the new geopolitics of energy. 2009. p. 219. Google Books.  These transactions, even if  AND   miscalculation in times of crisis. 

Russian miscalculation causes extinction

Engdahl 7 

 F. William, February 18, pg. .  Putin also did not  AND  civilization in the process. 

Russia basing in the Mediterranean is critical to protecting the Blue Stream Pipeline.

RIA Novosti ‘7 

 RIA Novosti. “Russia's Navy must restore presence in Mediterranean - commander -2”. March 8, 2007.  Russia must restore  AND  the proposed Burgas-Alexandroupolis oil pipeline. 

An attack on the maritime section of the Blue Stream pipeline would destroy the global maritime environment.

Solovyov et al. ‘1 

 V.V. Solovyov, geologist-geophysicist, veteran of Research Ocean Geophysics Institute; V.A. Chalenko, Director of Research Manufacturing Enterprise "Juzhmorgeo Eco", N.V. Mamaeva, doctor of biological science, veteran of Institute of oceanology of Russian Academy of Sciences; and M.M. Osicheva, architect, President of Black Sea Socio-Ecological Centre. “Independent scientists report on the Blue Stream pipeline”. September 19, 2001.  Great volumes of  AND  living on its seaside. 

Environment collapse causes extinction

Chakkaravarthy 3 

 Ashoka, .  The very basis of  AND  with man as part of an ecosystem. 

Environmental destruction leads to a global rash of interstate and civil wars

Homer-Dixon 98 – assistant prof of political science and director of the peace and conflict studies program @ U of Toronto 

 Thomas Homer-Dixon, assistant professor of political science and director of the Peace and Conflict Studies Programme at the University of Toronto, 1998, World Security Challenges for a New Century, p. 342-343  Experts have proposed  AND  for cooperation. = Solvency = 

Assad is on the ropes – U.S. assistance to the opposition to form an alternative to Assad will cause protestors to reject them and not agree on a division of labor, and delegitimize the opposition for the Syrian majority.

Harling 8/30 

 Peter Harling is the Iraq-Syria-Lebanon project director with the International Crisis Group. “How not to prolong the Syrian agony”. August 30, 2011. Foreign Policy.  The swift collapse of the  AND  Syrians, ought not be encouraged. 

US assistance delegitimizes the opposition, kills the possibility for unity, and encourages Business elites to stick with Assad.

Landis 11 

 Joshua Landis is the director of the Center for Middle East Studies and associate professor at the University of Oklahoma. Syrians must win the revolution on their own, 8/9/11,  Randa Slim proposes a Doran-lite sanctions  AND  a drawn out battle. 

Aiding the opposition will discredit them and provide an explanation for Assad’s use of force.

Lesch 11 professor of Middle East history at Trinity University 

 David, The conceptual gap between Syria and the U.S., 8/17/11,  Thus, there is not  AND  difficult balancing act. 

Assistance causes the opposition to be viewed as Zionist agents.

Husain 11 Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies @ CFR 

 Ed, Why Assad Need Not Fear Qaddafi’s Fate, 8/23/11, #38;utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+cfr_main+%28CFR.org+-+Main+Site+Feed%29  The dramatic scenes in Tripoli  AND  are powerful and destructive. = *Plan* = 

The United States federal government should provide political organization assistance for democratic opposition to the government of Bashar al-Assad.

Preempts

Major fights coming now—Budget, Jobs, and Supercommittee, Economy are top of the agenda

Houston Chronicle 9/27 

 Congress dodges one crisis, now on to the next,  One crisis averted, on to the  AND  and dislikes what it sees. 

AT: Iran Support

Iran cannot support Assad indefinitely.

Kennedy ‘11 

 Elizabeth A. Kennedy. Associated Press. “Iran warns of regional crisis if Syria falls”. August 27, 2011.  More than five months into the uprising against  AND  , according to the Local Coordination Committees, which helps organize the demonstrations. 

2AC KORUS

Won’t pass

CNN money 9/29 

 Trade deals held up by Washington gridlock, 

 AND 

 economy/trade_deals/?cnn=yes  Republicans in both chambers have been calling for  AND  deals done, no solution has appeared yet. 

Dems will demand China Currency bill before SKFTA

Goodman 9/26 

 Alana, Dems Holding Up Trade Deals?  However, Pelosi and other Democrats have  AND  to do something about Chinese currency. And we’re going to do that quickly.” 

Won’t require new spending or Congress – Obama has already budgeted for new developments.

McInerney ‘11 

 Stephen McInerney, is Executive Director of the 

 AND 

 -in-the-middle-east/  The administration has wisely budgeted for further unexpected  AND  Syria, Libya, Yemen, or elsewhere. 

KORUS inflames tensions with North Korea and risks conflict.

Stevenson ‘10 

 Ian Stevenson. “KORUS: Good for South Korea, but Who Else?”. December 13, 2010. 

”  KORUS is already being seen by other Asian trading partners as giving an  AND  intentioned show of support, may actually push the two sides closer to war. 

Extinction

Hayes and Hamel-Green 9 

 Peter Hayes, Professor of International Relations, 

 AND 

 hayes-hamel-green.pdf/view  The consequences of failing to address the proliferation  AND  that warrants priority consideration from the international community. 

No warming—we’ve entered a 30 year period of cooling—proved by PDOs

• 
  
  • PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION 

Easterbrook 10—geology professor specializing in climate effects 

 (Don, g professor emeritus at [] EVIDENCE OF THE CAUSE OF GLOBAL WARMING AND COOLING: RECURRING GLOBAL, DECADAL, CLIMATE CYCLES RECORDED BY GLACIAL FLUCTUATIONS, ICE CORES, OCEAN TEMPERATURES, HISTORIC MEASUREMENTS AND SOLAR VARIATIONS)  ‘Global warming’ (the term used for warming from 1977 to  AND   several more decades. 

Warming doesn’t lead to extinction

Barrett 6 – Professor of International Policy @ Johns Hopkins 

 Scott, Professor and Director of International Policy 

 AND 

 Catastrophe,” Chicago Journal of International Law, Lexis  Less dramatic changes are more likely. Abrupt  AND  climate shifts could directly destroy all humanity." 76 

Trade doesn’t prevent war

Mansfield and Pollin 3  Edward (Prof of PolSci @ UPenn)  AND  .  Finally, a wide variety of studies conclude  AND  conflict when core national interests are at stake. 

KORUS leads to more bilateral agreements and breaks down multilateral trade.

Wolf ‘7 

 Martin Wolf, the FT's chief economics commentator. “A Korean-American strand enters trade’s spaghetti bowl”. April 4, 2007.  This month marks the 60th anniversary of the General Agreement on  AND  , instead? He may even want a name for this new agreement. I know. Why not call it the "World Trade Organisation"? 

Kills global economy – rollback of financial regs and prevents Korean capital controls

Lopez ‘10  Beatriz Lopez is Global Trade Watch's Senior Field  AND  citizen.org/documents/KoreaFTAInvestmentFinancialServices.pdf  The Korea FTA’s Financial Services chapter reflects the  AND  critical policies needed to restore global economic stability.  

Extinction 

Green and Schrage in ‘9 

 Michael J Green, Senior Advisor and Japan 

 AND 

 atimes/Asian_Economy/KC26Dk01.html  However, the Great Depression taught us  AND  advance their asymmetrical advantages against the international system. 

FTA displaces rural farmers—leads to cocoa production and FARC recruitment

Nicholls 11Executive Director, U.S. Office on Colombia 

 Kelly, The Unanswered Questions Surrounding the U.S.-Colombia FTA, 6/22/11,  It was a concern echoed by many of  AND  to officially support and implement such a proposal. 

That causes Latin American instability

Bonner 10 

 Robert C Bonner, Senior Principal of the Sentinel HS Group. He was Administrator ofthe U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration from 1990 to 1993 and Commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection from 2001 to 2005. “The New Cocaine Cowboys”. Foreign Affairs. New York: Jul/Aug 2010. Vol. 89, Iss. 4; pg. 35. ProQuest.  Mexico is in the throes of a battle against powerful drug cartels,  AND  transnational drug cartels that threaten the stability of Central and South America. 

Latin American wars go global – even absent escalation, they cause counterbalancing and conflict

Rochin, Professor of Political Science, 94 

 James, Professor of Political Science at Okanagan 

 AND 

 towards Latin America, pp. 130-131  While there were economic motivations for Canadian policy  AND  as will be discussed in the next chapter. 

And, passing the deal is a psychological blow to the alliance

Chun et al. ‘11  Jung Bae Chun, Jong Kul Lee, and Ki Kab Kang, representing the Korean National Assembly Members’ Caucus Against the Korea-US FTA, Joint Statement of Korean lawmakers, labor unions, farmers and civil society groups on the proposed Korea-U.S. FTA,   Finally, the proposed agreement has the  AND  conflict rather than strengthening 

Rising expectations that cause Korean adventurism

Lee and Kim ‘10 

 Dong Sun Lee, assistant professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Korea University, and Sung Eun Kim, Research Fellow at the Asiatic Research Institute. "Ties That Bind: Assessing the Impact of Economic Interdependence on East Asian Alliances". January 2010. East Asian Institute.  In the long run, however, Seoul and Washington might be better off  AND  to its long enduring security alliance. 

SK Adventurism is the only scenario for nuclear war

Raska '10 

 Michael, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, The Statesman "Why Can't South Korea Retaliate?" 11/25  However, since the early 1990s, South Korea’s security dilemmas have become progressively  AND   escalation of conflict on the Korean peninsula may rapidly spill over into a broader regional crisis. 

Currency manipulation takes out any positive benefits of tariff decreases

Public Citizen ‘11 

 (Global Trade Watch, 2011, Currency Manipulation Could Negate Cuts to Korean Agricultural Tariffs in Korea FTA,  Historically, Korea has been a chronic currency manipulator. Korea is one  AND  claims about supposed benefits to the beef and pork industries under the Korea FTA. 

KORUS will not boost the economy.

Ahn and Miles ‘10 

 Christine Ahn, the executive director of the Korea Policy Institute and a Foreign Policy In Focus columnist and Albie Miles, a Ph.D. Candidate in the department of environmental science, policy and management at the University of California, Berkeley, and an FPIF contributor. “Forget the FTA Fix, Just Say No”. October 1, 2010.  The president claims that working people will benefit  AND  from one to the other. This kind of work is not serious social science—it is ideological cover for a corporate agenda. 

2AC Security K

Our identification of threats are accurate  recognition of enmity is a pre-requisite to accurate foreign policy planning. 

Doran ’11 – Professor at NYU 

 Michael Scott Doran, a Visiting Professor at the Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service at New York University. He is a former Senior Director for the Middle East at the National Security Council and a former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense. “Response: Arab Spring, Persian Winter: Will Iran Emerge the Winner From the Arab Revolt?”. Foreign Affairs. New York: Jul/Aug 2011. Vol. 90, Iss. 4; pg. 183  The authors are arguing against a straw man. No one, myself  AND  United States' allies as enemies and its enemies, including Iran, as allies. 

Rejection of current IR paradigm leads to instability and international intervention – doesn’t enable radical democracy – turns their impact

McCormack 10 – Lecturer in International Politics 

 Tara McCormack, is Lecturer in International Politics 

 AND 

 to emancipatory approaches, pg. 127-129  The following section will briefly raise some questions  AND  framework proposed by critical and emancipatory theoretical approaches. 

Psychoanalysis results in fatalism, passivity, and inaction

Gordon 1—Psychotherapist 

 Paul, Psychoanalysis and Racism: The Politics of Defeat, Race Class 2001 42: 17  The postmodernists' problem is that they cannot live with dis appointment. All the  AND   just to interpret it, need to look elsewhere. 

Power politics is an inevitable manifestation of human nature. We can reform the current international system, but wishing it to vanish will not make it so.

Murray ‘97 

 (Alastair, Politics Department at the University 

 AND 

 RECONSTRUCTING REALISM, p. 195-96)  Perhaps the most famous realist refrain is that  AND  possible under contemporary conditions must first be ensured. 

Conflict blocks transition to their alternative

Murray ‘97 

 (Alastair, Politics Department at the University of Wales, Swansea, RECONSTRUCTING REALISM, p. 194)  Given that, in the absence of a resolution of such difficulties,  AND  for reform than reflectivist perspectives, however dramatic, can offer. 

*Civil War Adv*

Advantage : Stability 

Assad’s collapse is inevitable – signs of a violent revolt and civil war are mounting – U.S. support of democratic and inclusive opposition will peel away Assad’s remments of support and all controlled collapse – the alternative is a violent revolt that causes instability throughout the region and U.S. intervention.

Yacoubian 10/5 

 Mona Yacoubian is a senior program officer for the Middle East at the U.S. Institute of Peace. In November, she will join the Henry L. Stimson Center. “Saving Syria from civil war”. October 5, 2011. Foreign Policy.  As Syria's uprising lurches toward its seventh month, fears that the country  AND  government bureaucracy and commercial sector, rejuvenating the opposition without spurring further violence. 

Sectarian conflict in Syria will spillover throughout the region causing instability and Saudi-Iran– new sectarian conflict will escalate – each side is backed by a nervous regional power.

Nasr 8/27 – Professor of Politics at Tufts University 

 Vali Nasr is professor at Tufts University, 

 AND 

 arab-spring.html?pagewanted=all  Syria today stands at the edge of such  AND  Syria and Iraq, it is already happening. 

New conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia will escalate and draw-in the U.S. – your old impact defense doesn’t apply.

Birnbaum 10/18 

 Ben Birnbaum. The Washington Times. “Purported plot on envoy pushes Iranians, Saudis closer to brink”. October 18, 2011.  The 3-decade-old cold war between Iran and Saudi Arabia may be heating up, as  AND  you watched Saudi TV coverage of this past week, they’ve been almost giddy because this vindicates their narrative about Iran.” 

Middle East conflict goes global and nuclear.

Primakov ‘9 - Doctor of Economics, Professor, executive member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Head of the Center for Situational Analysis at the Russian Academy of Sciences 

 Yevgeny Primakov is President of the Chamber of 

 AND 

 9c5d-a7ce495e2522/en/12.pdf  The Middle East conflict is unparalleled in terms  AND  does not completely rule out such a possibility. 

New conflict will escalate.

Singh 9/22 

 Michael Singh, managing director of The Washington Institute and a former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council.. “What has really changed in the Middle East?”. Shadow Government. September 22, 2011. Shadow Government Blog @ Foreign Policy.  Third, and most troubling, the Middle East is likely to be a more dangerous and volatile  AND  is Iran's quest for a nuclear weapon, which would shift any contest for regional primacy into overdrive. 

And, Syria is a unique situation – it would escalate globally.

Bacik 10/16 

 Gokahn Bacik. “Vying for Syria: 

 AND 

 really-end-this-time.html  Russia and China recently vetoed a draft resolution  AND  Syria will generate existential outcomes for other states. 

War in the Middle East is comparatively most probable and has the highest magnitude

Ferguson 7 – Professor of History @ Harvard University 

Niall, 6/17,   For some time I have been warning that the next great global conflict will begin  AND  will soon possess nuclear weapons, and you have a recipe for Armageddon. 

Inaction now will force U.S. military intervention in the event of Syrian civil war.

Abrams 8/2 

 Elliott Abrams, a senior fellow at the 

 AND 

 preventing-civil-war-syria/p25576  Syria remains rocked by antiregime protests that have  AND  cronies from the rest of the Alawite community. 

U.S. leadership is key – only the U.S. can balance competing regional powers and prevent a conflict from escalating.

Badran 9/22 

 Tony Badran, Research Fellow @ Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “Axis of Abuse: U.S. Human Rights toward Iran and Syria, Part II”. Hearing before House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia. September 22, 2011.  Balancing Regional Agendas As a New York Times report noted on September 19, 2011, the administration remains apprehensive about appearing to “[try] to orchestrate the outcome in Syria.” However, only the US can balance the complex and competing agendas  AND   outcome other than Assad’s ouster would be a blow to US interests and a boost to the Iranian bloc. 

*Iran Adv*

Advantage : Axis 

Ousting Assad isn’t enough—Iran will assist the opposition to maintain its axis

Javedanfar 8/13 

 Meir Javedanfar, is an Iranian-Israeli 

 AND 

 aug/13/khamenei-support-assad  Despite the closeness between the two leaders and  AND  by cavorting with members of the Syrian opposition. 

And, Iran is preparing for a post-Assad Syria to insure its strategic interests – it will maintain its Axis will Hezbollah.

Dorsey 9/8 

 James M. Dorsey is a Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University. “Is Iran Turning Its Back On Syria? – Analysis”. Eurasia Review. September 8, 2011.  Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s staunchest ally, Iran, is hinting that its  AND  the gun,” read a recent headline in Jomhouri Eslami, a newspaper with close ties to Khamenei. 

U.S. assistance to opposition is critical to an alliance with a post-Assad regime to cripple Hezbollah and encircle Iran.

Nassar ‘11 

 Galal Nassar. “Superpower checkmate”. July 

 AND 

 eg/2011/1054/op2.htm  But what are the ramifications and possible repercussions  AND  Tehran's influence and facilitate the encirclement of Iran. 

Iranian regional hegemony will causes regional instability and nuclear aggression.

Segall 9/15 

 Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall. “Iran Sees New Opportunity for Regional Domination Despite Turkish Competition”. Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. September 15, 2011.#38;LNGID=1&TMID=111&FID=442&PID=0&IID=8713&TTL=The_%22Arab_Spring%22:_An_Opportunity_for_Iran%27s_%22Islamic_Awakening%22  According to Iran's appraisal, the power of the Western and Western Islamic Arab regimes that restrained and prevented  AND  to a level of 20 percent3 and the connection of the Bushehr nuclear power plant to the national electricity grid.4 

Lack of U.S. check of Iranian hegemony guarantees nuclear escalation.

London ‘10 

 Herbert London is president of Hudson Institute and 

 AND 

 crisis-in-the-middle-east  The coming storm in the Middle East is  AND  the Iranian leadership looks to with imperial exhilaration. 

Failure of U.S. to challenge and limit Iranian hegemony will cause U.S. hegemonic decline globally.

Etzioni ‘11 

 Amitai Etzioni is a professor of international relations at George Washington University and author of Security First: For a Muscular, Moral Foreign Policy. “The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility”. March-April 2011. Military Review.  As of the beginning of 2011, these Sunni nations, and most others in the Middle East, experienced  AND  responsibilities and live up to its commitments overseas. 

Heg decline leads to great power war

Zhang and Shi 11 – *Yuhan Zhang is a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Currently on leave from Graduate School in Economic and Political Development, Lin Shi, MA from Columbia in International Affairs, also serves as an independent consultant for the Eurasia Group and a consultant for the World Bank 

 America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and 

 AND 

 -of-conflict-and-rivalry/  This does not necessarily mean that the US  AND  will inevitably be devoid of unrivalled US primacy. 

*Solvency*

Lack of U.S. action signals to the opposition we are disengaging and ensures civil war – comparatively larger risk than kiss of death.

Shaik 10/12 

 Salman Shaikh is director of the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. “Preventing a Syrian Civil War”. October 12, 2011. The New York Times.  Washington has instead continued to pursue a strategy of “leading from behind  AND  and regional allies do not act quickly, Syria will descend into chaos. 

Obama has disengaged – the lack of involvement will cause the revolution to turn violent and Iran to sustain its influence – only U.S. involvement can coordinate regional allies and ensure stability.

Badran 10/6 

 Tony Badran, Research Fellow @ Foundation for 

 AND 

 com/NewsArchiveDetails.aspx?ID=319001  With the Syrian revolution on the verge of  AND  However, that is simply not an option. 

The U.S. should start an active dialogue with the opposition and provide assistance to the Syrian opposition – providing training will be credible to establishing a credible opposition.

Karlin and Tabler ‘11 

 Mara E. Karlin was Levant Director at the Pentagon in 2006-7 and Special Assistant to the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy in 2007-9. Andrew J. Tabler is Next Generation Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Washington should plan for a post-Assad Syria”. May 26, 2011. Foreign Affairs.  As the United States works to push Assad from power, it should also be looking to pull  AND  orderly end to one of the United States' most problematic regional adversaries. 

Narratives of foreign intervention will by the Regime inevitable – by facilitating the end to the Assad regime the U.S. will demonstrate they are not putting Israel’s security concerns above the Syrian people – the U.S. is uniquely position to provide assistance for a transition to a democratic and allied Syria.

Weiss and Stuart ‘11 

 Michael Weiss, director of communications at the 

 AND 

 org/stories.asp?id=2221  The Syrian opposition is the most Western-  AND  that can be recognised by the international community. 

Plan

The United States federal government should provide assistance for democratic political organizations in opposition to the government of Bashar al-Assad

Aff: Kansas WP

Round 5 Tournament: Shirley

vs: Michigan AL

Judge: Harrigan

Plan Text: USFG should provide democracy assistance to Assad opposition groups in Syria.

1ac Advantages: Civil War, Turkey

2ac Offense

 EU: Perm solves net benefit, links to politics, doesn’t spill over, SP fails 

 Turkey: Only US can solve, doesn’t solve backlash, Kurd backlash, Kiss of death 

 PTX: GOP oppose now, core link turn, winner’s win 

 K: intervention good, role of ballot = political simulation, case outweighs, impacts are not orientalist, hands-off approach bad, methods not first 

1ar Strategy

 Turkey: Only US solves proxy wars, no leverage, no sanctions now, can’t check Iran, can’t solve Kurdish opposition, perm shields cp 

 PTX: economy high now, eu debt crisis alt cause, plan doesn’t go through congress, doesn’t solve consumer spending, fights now 

2ar Strategy

 Turkey: can’t solve proxy conflicts, kiss of death, only US involvement contains conflict 

 Aff: KU Pw

Round # Tournament: Shirley

vs: MN FS

Judge: Murillo

Plan Text

same 

1ac Advantages

same 

2ac Offense

Heg good 

Cap 

1ar Strategy

2ar Strategy

Obama is not spending PC now and will not push the plan.

Brown 11/11 

 Carrie Budoff Brown, Political analyst for Politico. “Obama spurns Congress for overseas trip”.  President Barack Obama leaves on a nine-day trip Friday just as the deficit-cutting supercommittee stumbles into its critical final phase and lawmakers race to avert a government shutdown. And neither Congress nor the White  AND   do their job. It is not that complicated.” 

Beacon Bankruptcy thumps the DA

The Hill 10/31 

 Second green flop stokes controversy  

 AND 

component&print

1&page=  The White House is facing fresh political headaches  AND  handling of the Energy Department’s loan guarantee portfolio. 

Obama has no PC and will no legislation will pass – he will use XOs.

Ambinder 11/8 

 Why Rouse's Expanded White House Role Isn't a Vote Against Daley,  Part of this is a function of Obama's political capital –  AND  umbrella of "we can't wait." 

House and Senate fights over highway spending coming

The Hill 11/9 

 "Keith Lang "Senate committee approves two 

 AND 

 approves-two-year-highway-bill  A new, two-year federal highway  AND  gas tax brings into the highway trust fund. 

Obama PC irrelevant.

 Blake 10-13  Aaron Blake, 10-13-2011, “Democrats thwart Obama’s bipartisan goals again,”   We’ve talked in this space before about how Obama’s political capital has  AND  effect of the legislation and gives the Republicans a pass to vote no.”

Unemployment benefits thumps the DA

NY Times 11/6 

 The Next Fight Over Jobs,  

 AND 

 next-fight-over-jobs.html  Tragically, the more entrenched the jobs shortage  AND  be a major battle in the months ahead. 

No link.

Bowman ‘11 

 Michael Bowman. “US Senators Urge Non-Military Intervention in Syria”. April 24, 2011. Voa News.  U.S. senators of both major political parties are  AND  same time avoid anything like an open-ended commitment. Certainly no [U.S.] troops on the ground." 

Political capital not true.

 -their evidence misuses the term 

 -ideological and partisan leanings outweigh 

Dickinson 9 – Professor of Political Science 

 Matthew, professor of political science at Middlebury College and taught previously at Harvard University where he worked under the supervision of presidential scholar Richard Neustadt, 5-26-2009, Presidential Power: A NonPartisan Analysis of Presidential Politics, “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power,”.  As for Sotomayor, from here the path toward almost certain  AND  calling every Senator or instead spends the next few weeks ignoring the Senate debate in order to play Halo III on his Xbox. 

Won’t require new spending – Obama has already budgeted for new developments.

McInerney ‘11 

 Stephen McInerney, is Executive Director of the 

 AND 

 -in-the-middle-east/  The administration has wisely budgeted for further unexpected  AND  Syria, Libya, Yemen, or elsewhere. 

Air fills in—their 1nc author

 Stephen Zunes 11/11 (“Obama Administration Seeks to Resume Military Aid to Uzbekistan Dictator,” Professor of Politics and Chair of Mid-Eastern Studies at the University of San Francisco, Huffington Post,  However, the administration has not made a  AND  shooting down U.S. transport planes. 

Afghanistan conflicts won’t spill-over – no one will be drawn-in.

Fettweis ‘11 

 Christopher Fettweis, Professor of Political Science @ Tulane. “Dangerous Times: The Futurist Interviews Christopher Fettweis”. World Future Society. 1/12/2011.  THE FUTURIST: In the next few years, the United States will end its military oversight of Afghanistan and Iraq. We can hope that the two fledgling democracies’ civil governments will prove strong enough to withstand their armed insurgent enemies, but it’s obvious that they might possibly not. In that case, Afghanistan and/or Iraq could fall back into  ANd   own civil war. But will it spill over into other countries? Probably not. 

Turns Democracy

 Stephen Zunes 11/11 (“Obama Administration Seeks to Resume Military Aid to Uzbekistan Dictator,” Professor of Politics and Chair of Mid-Eastern Studies at the University of San Francisco, Huffington Post,  If Congress approves the waiver, it will  AND  massacred—are not to be taken seriously. 

Solves all wars

Muravchik 1 

 Joshua Muravchik, Ph.D., Resident 

AND 

  The greatest impetus for world peace  and  AND  against democratic Finland during World War II.4

Advantage : Turkey 

U.S. posture of leading from behind is pushing Turkey to pursue hardline measures against Assad – threatens their relations and role as a mediator with Iran.

Mert 10/9 

 Nuray Mert, Turkish journalist and political scientists, lecturer at the Department of Economics of Istanbul University. “Turkey’s ‘Mission Impossible’”. October 9, 2011. Hurriyet Daily News. “http:www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=turkey8217s-8216mission-impossible8217-2011-10-09  U.S. President Barack Obama thanked Turkey for its support in  AND  very big challenge for Turkish foreign policy and it may cost Turkey dearly. 

Increased Turkish calls for Syrian regime change will undermine its regional influence and role as a mediator with Iran and Russia.

Afrasiabi 10/12 

 Kaveh L Afrasiabi, PhD, is the 

 AND 

 atimes/Middle_East/MJ12Ak03.html  Further, its talk of sanctions on Syria  AND  and theoretical framework in dire need of rethinking. 

Turkish diplomacy is vital to stabilize the Balkans – no one to fill-in.

 Werz et al 11  Michael Werz and Caroline Wadhams are Senior Fellows with the National Security Team at the Center for American Progress, Matthew Duss is a Policy Analyst and Director of Middle East Progress at the Center, and Sarah Margon is the Associate Director of the Sustainable Security and Peacebuilding Initiative at the Center (Michael, “After Turkey’s June Elections,” 6/23,   Turkey’s ambition and capability to reinvent itself as a player in the world is evident in  AND  attention of high-level U.S. diplomats and policymakers is focused on other parts of the world. 

The Balkans are on the brink of conflict – with cause major conflict between Europe and Russia – mediation is key.

MacDonald 10/6 

 Brad MacDonald, columnist. The Trumpet. 

 AND 

 q=8736.7477.0.0  The Balkan Peninsula has been the convergence point  AND  Peninsula. … Europe has effectively conquered Yugoslavia!” 

Even a small conflict in the Balkans will cause nuclear escalation that draws in the U.S.

Glaser 93 

 Charles, Professor in Public Policy at the 

 AND 

 , Summer, p. 8-9.  However, although the lack of an imminent  AND  States should not be unconcerned about Europe's future. 

The Balkans are the most likely scenario for global war

Brzezinski ‘3 

 Zbigniew Brzezinski, a professor of American foreign policy at 's , a scholar at the . "Hegemonic quicksand." The National Interest 74 (Winter 2003): 5(12). Expanded Academic ASAP)  FOR THE next several decades, the most volatile and dangerous region  AND  eventualities together could then put the prevailing American global hegemony at risk. 

And, U.S. lead from behind strategy allows Turkey to lead the opposition – ensures Muslim Brotherhood takeover.

Weiss 10/26 

 Michael Weiss is the Communications Director of The 

 AND 

 -the-syrian-opposition/247330/  The Muslim Brotherhood, which belatedly joined the  AND  in the political landscape of post-Assad Syria 

Leads to Israeli conflict

Helal 11 – former associate researcher for Al-Zaytouna Centre for Studies and Consultation 

 Feras, “THE ISRAELI POSITION TOWARDS THE 

 AND 

 284e36f8-7bd1-4d84-89a6-a1e9ee1b835a  Some of the official statements from Israel,  AND  possibility of Syrian-Israeli peace.[24] 

They think Syrian CBWs would proliferate

Sanders 11 

 Edmund, “Israel fears the alternative if 

 AND 

 la-fg-israel-syria-20110331  Privately, Israeli officials confirmed that although Assad  AND  Israel bombed its suspected reactor facility in 2007. 

That escalates to nuclear war.

Joshi 2k 

 Sharad Joshi, Ph.D candidate. "Israel's Nuclear Policy: A Cost-Benefit Analysis," March 2000, , accessed 8-4-11, mss]  The Syrian chemical arsenal should be considered, to a certain extent, as being a direct response to Israeli nuclear power, though it has other WMD arsenals to fear, such as Iraq's. In Syrian strategic thinking, chemical weapons are  AND   grave. Such a scenario would be ripe for a nuclear Armageddon.

Republicans and Cornyn oppose.

Reuters 11/7 

 Top Republican opposes extending U.S. 

 AND 

 washington-summit-tax-payroll-idUSTRE7A66W420111107  President Barack Obama's job-creation package took  AND  Obama's jobs bill, remains an open question. 

U.S. economy high

Willis 11-11 

 Bob, “U.S. Economy 

 AND 

 claims-show-improving-growth.html  The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly  AND  demand from automobile, food and beverage producers. 

Alt caus to economy – EU

Lowrey 11-11 

 “Europe’s Woes Pose New Peril to Recovery 

 AND 

 could-slow-us-recovery.html  For the second time in two years,  AND  assets, we could see a soft patch.” 

Won’t be pushed until December

Stein 11/10 

 Sam, On Payroll Tax Cut, Obama Administration Plotting Year-End Showdown,  With the payroll tax cut set to expire at the end  AND  a host of other legislative matters before heading back to their districts. 

Won’t boost the economy.

Reich 9/8 – Professor of Public Policy at Cal Berkeley 

 Robert Reich, a professor of public policy 

 AND 

 obama_job_program/index.html  But a jeer because the jobs plan he  AND  off what's likely to be a double dip. 

Recent conflicts prove there is zero correlation between economic decline and war

Barnett 9 

 Thomas, Senior Managing Director of Enterra Solutions LLC, Contributing Editor and Online Columnist for Esquire, The New Rules: Security Remains Stable Amid Financial Crisis, Aprodex, Asset Protection Index,  When the global financial crisis struck roughly a year ago,  AND  . Our new Africa Command, for example, hasn't led us to anything beyond advising and training local forces. 

Obama is not spending PC now and will not push the plan.

Brown 11/11 

 Carrie Budoff Brown, Political analyst for Politico 

 AND 

 news/stories/1111/68168.html  President Barack Obama leaves on a nine-  AND  their job. It is not that complicated.” 

PC isn’t key – the vote is about election-politics

Weisenthal 11-11 

 Joe, “The Most Important Question In 

 AND 

 super-committee-usd-stimulus#ixzz1dVjydv26  But there is one decision that has to  AND  help the economy," said one administration official. 

Cornyn’s key to the agenda

Ulsterman 10-26 

 The Ulsterman Report, “Fast and Furious 

 AND 

 -for-expansion-of-investigation/  John Cornyn, the powerful and highly influential  AND  cooperate with the ongoing Fast and Furious investigation. 

The plan flips him

 -this card also says that his bill 

 AND 

 which proves he wouldn’t be alienated by new spending 

On the Issues 10 

 “John Cornyn on War & Peace,” 

 AND 

 John_Cornyn_War_+_Peace.htm  Strengthen sanctions on Syria & assist democratic transition  AND  ) 08-S2917 on Apr 24, 2008 

Plan won’t require new spending – Fly ev says Obama could fund from Pentagon budget.

Disaster aid

Stiles 11-9 

 Andrew, “The Disaster-Spending Battle 

 AND 

 returns-andrew-stiles?pg=2  Though the “supercommittee,” which has until  AND  to change the course of spending in Washington. 

Winners win – Obama must look strong now.

Blow 9/9 

 Charles Blow, writer for the NYT. 

 AND 

 rise-of-the-fallen.html  So why does it feel as if we’ve  AND  middle: you take fire from both sides.

Turkey has no credibility with the protesters – means can’t solve that part of the aff.

Weiss 10/26 

 Michael Weiss is the Communications Director of The Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank that promotes democracy and human rights abroad. “Turkey's Hand in the Syrian Opposition”. October 26, 2011. The Atlantic.  The trouble is, Turkey's credibility among many Syrian protesters  AND  handing him over to Assad's infamous mukhabarat secret police. 

Turkey fails – only the U.S. can solve.

Badran 11 

 Tony, research fellow at the Foundation for 

 AND 

 options-in-damascus?page=show  It is time for Obama to exercise leadership  AND  . That role remains the United States' alone. 

Turkey can’t solve – the Kurds will not participate and it will drive a wedge between the opposition.

Mustafa 8/29 

 Bassam Mustafa. “Most Syrian Kurdish Parties Boycott Opposition Gathering”. Rudaw News. August 29, 2011.  “Any Syrian opposition conference will not succeed  AND  million Kurds, how can it defend the rights of the Syrian people and the Kurds there?” 

Only the aff can solve proxy war.

Mainen 7/25 

 Matthew Mainen, is a policy analyst at 

 AND 

 dangerous-role-in-syria.html  While Saudi Arabia’s involvement in suppressing Bahrain’s uprising  AND  to contain Iran, not a Saudi proxy.

Plan*

The United States federal government should provide technical assistance to the democratic opposition of Bashar Al-Assad.

 *Solvency* = 

U.S. engagement with the Syrian opposition is essential to strengthen the local protest movements and peels off the key pillars of support for Assad.

Fly et al. 11/8 

 Jamie M. Fly (FPI), Robert Zarate (FPI), Mark Dubowitz (FDD), Reuel Marc Gerecht (FDD), Tony Badran (FDD), Ammar Abdulhamid (FDD), and John Hannah (FDD). The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) for the Syrian Working Group. November 8, 2011. “Towards a Post-Assad Syria: Options for the United States and Like-Minded Nations to Further Assist the Anti-Regime Syrian Opposition”.  To begin with, Washington should  AND  European and Arab partners. 

U.S. assistance to the opposition would significantly boost the protest movement – only U.S. leadership and commitment can get segments of Syrian society to abandon Assad.

Brodsky 11/4 

 Matthew Brodsky, is director of policy for the Jewish Policy Center in Washington, DC and editor of the JPC's journal, inFOCUS Quarterly. “The US must ratchet up pressure on Syria”. November 4, 2011. The Guardian.  In August, President Obama finally  AND  wait to see what happens. 

U.S. must take the lead now – the alternative will be a slow drift towards civil war, which cause intervention inevitably and makes a democratic Syria impossible.

Fly et al. 11/8 

 Jamie M. Fly (FPI), Robert Zarate (FPI), Mark Dubowitz (FDD), Reuel Marc Gerecht (FDD), Tony Badran (FDD), Ammar Abdulhamid (FDD), and John Hannah (FDD). The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) for the Syrian Working Group. November 8, 2011. “Towards a Post-Assad Syria: Options for the United States and Like-Minded Nations to Further Assist the Anti-Regime Syrian Opposition”.  Conclusion: Time for the United  AND  much better outcome. 

Narratives of foreign intervention will by the Regime inevitable – U.S. assistance is essential and will reverse anti-Western perceptions.

Weiss and Stuart ‘11 

 Michael Weiss, director of communications at the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank that promotes democratic geopolitics, and Hannah Stuart. The Henry Jackson Society. “The Syrian opposition: Political analysis with original testimony from key figures”. June 6, 2011.  The Syrian opposition is the most  AND  by the international community. 

Assad collapse is inevitable – protests, defections, and sanctions.

Zakaria 12/1 

 Fareed Zakaria. “Zakaria: Why I now think Assad will fall”. December 1, 2011.  Earlier this year, I thought the Syrian regime would be able to persevere. AND end of Assad's rule. It may still take a year to run its course. But I now think this regime is going to collapse after all. 

And, Assad is losing control of the army.

Issacharoff and Harel 12/21 

 Avi Issacharoff and Amos Harel. “Assad losing control as 10,000 soldiers desert Syrian military”. Haaretz. December 21, 2011  More than 10,000 soldiers have deserted the AND districts the opposition groups are getting stronger and the army is having problems operating. 

The U.S. must take action to hasten his demise – the longer the conflict drags on the more sectarian it will become.

Tabler 12/7 

 Andrew J. Tabler is the Next Generation Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Al-Assad in complete denial”. December 7, 2011. CNN Global Public Square Blog.  But with the gap between the regime’s perception of reality and that of the Syrian people and opposition (backed up by literally thousands of online videos and journalist reports), Assad’s negotiated exit seems AND e Syrian regime a place to run as the conflict unfolds. Heg 

Obama’s Syria policy abdicates U.S. leadership – even if Assad falls Iran will work to ensure its regional influence – only U.S. action can ensure successful transition and regional hegemony.

Doran 12/13 

 Michael Doran, Roger Hertog Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy. “United States Policy in Syria: Masterful Inaction?”. Up Front Blog. Brookings Institute. December 13, 2011. #38;utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BrookingsRSS%2Ftopics%2Fmiddleeastunrest+%28Brookings%3A+Topics+-+The+Arab+Spring+and+Middle+East+Unrest%29&utm_content=Google+Reader  Salman Sheikh and I look at the rise and fall of the House of AND the interests of Tehran. If Washington does not join the game, it is unlikely to win. 

Lack of U.S. check of Iranian hegemony guarantees nuclear escalation.

London ‘10 

 Herbert London is president of Hudson Institute and professor emeritus of New York University. “The Coming Crisis In The Middle East”. The Hudson Institute. June 28, 2010.  The coming storm in the Middle East is gaining momentum; AND vacuum is emerging, one that is not sustainable and one the Iranian leadership looks to with imperial exhilaration. 

Failure of U.S. to challenge and limit Iranian hegemony will cause U.S. hegemonic decline globally.

Etzioni ‘11 

 Amitai Etzioni is a professor of international relations at George Washington University and author of Security First: For a Muscular, Moral Foreign Policy. “The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility”. March-April 2011. Military Review.  As of the beginning of 2011, these Sunni nations, and AND to discharge what it sees as its global responsibilities and live up to its commitments overseas. 

Heg decline results in global conflict—successors won’t fill in and multiple hotspots escalate

Brzezinski 12—Professor of Foreign Policy @ Johns Hopkins 

 Zbigniew, After America, Foreign Policy, Jan/Dec 2012, ,0  For if America falters, the world is unlikely to be dominated AND into global turmoil.

Advantage 1: Stability

Aid now and more to come

Blanchard 12/8 

 Christopher M Blanchard, analyst in Middle Eastern 

 AND 

 sgp/crs/row/RL33142.pdf  Many Members of Congress welcomed the announcement of  AND  Libyans injured or displaced during the revolution.9 

It takes out their DAs but not the aff – Libya needs democratic engagement, not more money.

NYT ‘11 

 New York Times. “U.S 

 AND 

 new-1927837.html?viewAsSinglePage=true  Jibril has said that with Gadhafi's death the  AND  all Libyans will be part of this undertaking.  Earlier this week, on a visit to  AND  sustained technical advice and full-time engagement.  This was always the Libyan people's fight.  AND  Libyans into building a stable and peaceful democracy. 

Increasing protests threaten the legitimacy of the NTC.

Engel 12/19 

 Andrew Engel, a former research assistant at The Washington Institute, is a Beirut-based analyst who recently traveled across Libya. “Challenges Facing the Libyan Government”. December 19, 2011.  Libya's interim prime minister, Abdul Rahim al-Keib, has charted  AND  by "the people." Protests have reportedly spread to Misratah and Darnah. 

Tribal and militia clashes are increasing – demobilization is key.

Engel 12/19 

 Andrew Engel, a former research assistant at 

 AND 

 org/templateC05.php?CID=3434  Both Libyans and the international community will watch  AND  likely a reprisal attack emerging from tribal tensions. 

Libyan instability will spillover throughout Africa causing failed states.

Ignatieff 10/24 

 Michael Ignatieff is the Carr Professor and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard. 10/24/2011. Reuters. “Libya’s revolution pushes democracy forward”.  All across the Middle East, the people face the same challenge of building institutions  AND  American drones will soon be flying, if they are not already doing so, over the hideouts of the Al Qaeda in the Magrheb. 

Great power war.

Yoo 5 

 John, Professor of Law, University of California at Berkeley School of Law, Failed States, Int’l Colloquium, Online  Failed states pose perhaps the most dangerous threat to both American national security  AND  or poverty and lack of economic development requires some answers to the problem of failed states. 

Independently, Libyan instability risks nuclear war

Lendman ‘11 

 Stephen Lendman, Harvard BA, Wharton MBA 

 AND 

 rense.com/general94/libya.htm  Scott told Progressive Radio News Hour listeners that  AND  now than WW I seemed in early 1914. 

African is strategically vital – even regional wars threaten global escalation.

Glick 7 – senior ME Fellow @ Center for Security Policy in Washington DC 

 Caroline B. Glick, the senior Middle East fellow at the Center for Security Policy in Washington, D.C., The Center for Security Policy is a non-profit, non-partisan national security organization. 12/11/2007. “Condi's African holiday”.  The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and strategically vital place. Small wars,  AND  global conflagrations between competing regional actors and global powers. 

Advantage 2: Liberal Internationalism

The U.S. must capitalize on the momentum of the “Arab Spring” to reverse a decade of authoritarian momentum – failure emboldens Russia, China, and Iran to behave aggressively and challenge the liberal international order. 

Puddington ‘11 

 Arch Puddington, researcher at Freedom House, responsible for preparation of Freedom in the World reports. September 2011. “Democracy’s Stake in the Arab Spring”. Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs. Vol. 5, No. 3. online:  To be effective, this effort must be sustained and expanded. For the US, this will require placing assistance  AND  . In emboldening those who have a stake in its failure, it will, as well, set back the cause of freedom everywhere else. 

The US needs to take the lead and aggressively support democracy in Libya – anything else is perceived as managing decline and turning its back on global democracy.

Hamid 10/1 

 Shadi Hamid, Director of Research, Brookings 

 AND 

 2011/1001_obama_hamid.aspx  Throughout the Arab spring, analysts and policymakers  AND  of support for “stable,” repressive regimes. 

The plan is key – it reinvigorates our national strategy in line with American values.

Lajeunesse ‘11 

 Gabriel Lajeunesse, Writer, Advocate. “The Arab Spring and the Illusion of a Pragmatic Approach to Foreign Policy”. October 12, 2011. The Huffington Post.  As Arab Spring moves into Arab Fall, a review of current policy approaches  AND  Then, and only then, we will be ready for the next Arab, or African, or Asian Spring. 

Support for democratic movements is critical to securing a liberal international order – critical to dampen international conflicts and solve resource and environmental conflicts – only the U.S. can ensure success.

Ikenberry ’11 – Professor of Politics and International Affairs @ Princeton 

 G. John Ikenberry, the Albert G 

 AND 

 making-1.php?page=1  This spring’s dramatic upheaval in the Middle East  AND  are congenial to its long-term security. 

Resource scarcity and environmental conflicts will escalate globally.

De Souza 11 

 Mike, National affairs reporter; BA from 

 AND 

 military+warns/4634442/story.html  The planet is running out of oil and  AND  environmental change are factors with the highest potential impacts 

A U.S. liberal leadership is critical to effective international institutions and cooperation that solves all global problems and great power conflict – there is no effective alternative.

Kromah 9 

 (Lamii Moivi Kromah, Department of International Relations University of the Witwatersrand, February 2009, “The Institutional Nature of U.S. Hegemony: Post 9/11”,  A final major gain to the United States from the benevolent hegemony  AND  security is impossible without a broad measure of international security. 57 

Nuclear War

Dyer 4 

 Gwynne, in Military and History at  

 Toronto Star, The End of War, 

 AND 

 org/views04/1230-05.htm  War is deeply embedded in our history and  AND  within the context of the existing state system. 

Independently, renewed Russian aggression threatens global nuclear war.

Blank 9 

 Dr. Stephen Blank, Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College. March 2009. “Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?,” online:  Proliferators or nuclear states like China and Russia can then deter regional or intercontinental  AND  extend alliances of their own, and perhaps make wars of aggression on their neighbors or their own people.172 

And, Iranian aggression ensures regional conflicts that escalate.

London ‘10 

 Herbert London is president of Hudson Institute and 

 AND 

 crisis-in-the-middle-east  The coming storm in the Middle East is  AND  the Iranian leadership looks to with imperial exhilaration. 

Advantage 3: Terrorism

Plans support for democracy in Libya is a critical signal to prevent terrorism.

Gordon and Zarate ‘11 

 David A. Gordon, Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, and Juan C. Zarate, Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism, Summer 2011, “The Battle for Reform with Al-Qaeda,” The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 34, No. 3, p. 103-122  Another immediate counterterrorism challenge posed by the Arab Spring is  AND  of the recognizable leader of the global jihad could diminish the heroic appeal of the movement over time to those who have yet to be radicalized. 

Extinction

Toon et al 7 

 Owen B. Toon, chair of the 

 AND 

 acp-7-1973-2007.pdf  To an increasing extent, people are congregating  AND  well for the present scenarios and physical outcomes. 

Plan: The United States federal government should provide support for democratic governance in Libya.

Contention _: Solvency

The U.S. must provide technical assistance during the transition – critical to stability and providing Islamist takeover – they will say yes.

Engel 11/2 

 Andrew Engel, a former research assistant at The Washington Institute, is a Beirut-based analyst who recently traveled across Libya. “Libya's Post-Qadhafi Challenges”. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. PolicyWatch #1866. November 2, 2011.  Libya's challenges are immense, but Washington can take steps to facilitate the transition while  AND  have openly opposed the NTC and favor an Islamic state over a democratic state with Islamic values. 

U.S. governance assistance is key – uniquely positioned and experience means only the U.S. has a chance to be effective.

Vandewalle ‘11 

 Dirk Vandewalle, Associate Professor of Government at 

 AND 

 media/doc/Vandewalle%20Testimony.pdf  The United States and the international community,  AND  that all its citizens can truly subscribe to. 

2AC T – For

Ci -

For should be interpreted as for the benefit of.

Legg ‘2

Michael Legg, B.Com (Hons) (UNSW '93), M.Com (Hons) and LLB (UNSW '96), LLM (UC-Berkeley '01). Solicitor of the Supreme Court of New South Wales, Australia. “Indigenous Australians and International Law: Racial Discrimination, Genocide and Reparations”. Berkeley Journal of International Law. 2002. Lexis.

Of the other judges that

AND

of a particular race. n44

CI – Can go to the opposition in an autocratic regime.

Carothers ‘9

Thomas Carothers is vice-president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is the author or editor of many books on democracy promotion. “Democracy Assistance: Political vs. Developmental?”. Journal of Democracy. January 2009, Volume 20, Number 1.  http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/carothers-democracy_assistance-political_vs_developmental.pdf

Method of supporting democracy: In

AND

access to political information.

2AC USAID Good

USAID is effective.

Dickinson ‘5

Laura A. Dickinson, Associate Professor, University of Connecticut School of Law. “Government For Hire: Privatizing Foreign Affairs and the Problem of Accountability Under International Law”. 47 Wm. & Mary L. Rev. 135 (2005).

In addition, USAID, the

AND

, private military contracts..

2AC Kiss of Death

Perception of U.S. inaction is worse – ensures civil war and outweighs kiss of death.

Shaikh 10/12

Salman Shaikh, Brookings Doha Center Director, “Preventing a Syria Civil War,” New York Times. 10/12/11. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/13/opinion/preventing-a-syrian-civil-war.html

The longer the

AND

for a post-Assad Syria.

Plan solves existing anti-Americanism, no kiss

Tobin ‘11

Jonathan S. Tobin, journalist, “U.S. Support Doesn’t Taint Syrian Protests,” Commentary Magazine. 7/8/11. www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/07/08/american-support-doesn%E2%80%99t-taint-syrian-protests/

U.S. Ambassador Robert S. Ford and

AND

will now know they are not alone.

2AC Payroll Tax Cuts

Won’t pass

Benen 12/31

Steve, Washington Monthly, Enjoy the payroll tax break while it lasts, http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal/2011_12/enjoy_the_payroll_tax_break_wh034436.php

I’ve been rather pessimistic

AND

middle class on principle.

US economy low and can’t recover—deficit problems, EU, China

Shilling 1/2

A. Gary, haeds economic consulting firm in Springfield, "Forecast for 2012: recession, but not a Great Recession," CSM www.csmonitor.com/Business/new-economy/2012/0102/Forecast-for-2012-recession-but-not-a-Great-Recession AD 1/2/12

Despite recent stronger economic

AND

consumer spending retrenchment.

Obama’s signing statements alienated congress

Lake 1/4

Eli “Obama Embraces Signing Statements After Knocking Bush for Using Them” [http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/01/04/obama-embraces-signing-statements-after-knocking-bush-for-using-them.html]

Obama’s most recent

AND

left for the holidays.

Cordray nomination tanks the agenda

Feller and Kuhnhenn 1/4

Ben Feller and Jim Kuhnhenn. 1/4/2012. “AP sources: Obama bucks GOP, OKs consumer watchdog”, http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_OBAMA?SITE=FLPEJ&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

In a defiant display of

AND

length of the Senate's session.

Won’t boost the economy.

Reich 9/8 – Professor of Public Policy at Cal Berkeley

Robert Reich, a professor of public policy at the University of California at Berkeley, was secretary of labor during the Clinton administration. “Obama's jobs plan isn't enough”. September 8, 2011. The War Room Blog @ Salon. http://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_room/2011/09/09/obama_job_program/index.html

But a jeer because

AND

likely to be a double dip.

Recent conflicts prove there is zero correlation between economic decline and war

Barnett 9

Thomas, Senior Managing Director of Enterra Solutions LLC, Contributing Editor and Online Columnist for Esquire, The New Rules: Security Remains Stable Amid Financial Crisis, Aprodex, Asset Protection Index,

When the global

AND

and training local forces.

The plan has bipartisan support.

Bowman ‘11

Michael Bowman. “US Senators Urge Non-Military Intervention in Syria”. April 24, 2011. Voa News. http://www.voanews.com/english/news/usa/US-Senators-Urge-Non-Military-Intervention-in-Syria-120569589.html

U.S. senators of

AND

troops on the ground."

Winners win.

Marshall and Prins ’11 – Associate Professors of Political Science

Bryan W Marshall, associate professor of political science at Miami Universityand Brandon C Prins, associate professor of political science at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville& Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, “Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force”. September 2011.  Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3.

Presidents rely

AND

at home (Fordham 2002).

No impact to new recession – its resilient

Keystone ‘11

“3 Ways the Next Recession Will Be Different”. http://keystoneresearch.org/media-center/media-coverage/3-ways-next-recession-will-be-different

If the second half of 2009 and

AND

off more of their debt.

Qatar

Qatar leadership fails – it will allow for continued Iranian influence – only U.S. leadership can solve.

Badran 9/22

Tony Badran, Research Fellow @ Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “Axis of Abuse: U.S. Human Rights toward Iran and Syria, Part II”. Hearing before House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia. September 22, 2011. http://www.defenddemocracy.org/stuff/uploads/documents/Badran_Testimony_FINAL_9_21.pdf

As a New York Times

AND

by Iran—would remain intact.

US is key – only a great power can’t solve.

Badran 11

Tony, research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 8/16/11, “Obama's Options in Damascus” Foreign Affairs http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68129/tony-badran/obamas-options-in-damascus?page=show

It is time for

AND

the United States' alone.

Links to politics

Reuters 9/2

Reuters. 9/21/11. “Obama seeks to ease doubts on global leadership”. mobile.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE78K39V20110921

Foreign policy has slipped

AND

approach undermines U.S. global prestige.

Leaks happen.

Mayer 2k

Jane Mayer is a staff writer for The New Yorker http://www.gertzfile.com/gertzfile/NYTimesMag.html

In modern Washington,

AND

only to please his parents.

Afghanistan conflicts won’t spill-over – no one will be drawn-in.

Fettweis ‘11

Christopher Fettweis, Professor of Political Science @ Tulane. “Dangerous Times: The Futurist Interviews Christopher Fettweis”. World Future Society. 1/12/2011.  http://www.wfs.org/content/dangerous-times-futurist-interviews-christopher-fettweis

THE FUTURIST: In the next

AND

other countries? Probably not.

2AC IRC CP

Doesn’t solve Credibility – U.S. groups must be on the ground and encourage democratic and peaceful transition.

Wittes ‘8

Tamara Cofman Wittes, director of the Middle East Democracy and Development (MEDD) Project at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, a regional policy center at The Brookings Institution. 2008. Freedom’s Unstead March: America’s Role in Building Arab Democracy. P.120. GoogleBooks.

Despite the failings of

AND

when they need diplomatic backup.

CP Links to politics—Congress opposes removing restrictions

Crimm, Professor - Law - St. John's, 05

(Democratization, Global Grant-Making, and the Internal Revenue Code Lobbying Restrictions, 79 Tul. L. Rev. 587

The reluctance to

AND

consider relaxation of the tax constraints.

No Solvency  Their own source concludes that the effect of removing the restrict is entirely uncertain and may be counterproductive

Crimm, Professor - Law - St. John's, 05

(Democratization, Global Grant-Making, and the Internal Revenue Code Lobbying Restrictions, 79 Tul. L. Rev. 587

Similar to democratization, any

AND

transitioning to democracy.

Charities don’t have the money

PND 10-18

Philanthropy News Daily, http://foundationcenter.org/pnd/news/story.jhtml?id=357800002

Donations to Largest

AND

show signs of struggle."

2AC Coercion

Plan is ethical

McGee ‘99

(Robert W. McGee, Professor, Accounting, Andreas School of Business, Barry University. Spring 1999, Journal of Accounting, Ethics & Public Policy, Volume 2, No. 2, “AN ETHICAL LOOK AT PAYING YOUR ‘FAIR SHARE’ OF TAXES”)

The other philosophy of

AND

more to their liking.11

Life trump freedom – it shouldn’t be evaluated as a core deontological good.

Locke ‘5

(Robert, writer for The American Conservative. March 14, “Marxism of the Right” http://www.amconmag.com/2005_03_14/article1.html)

The most fundamental

AND

that concern governments.

Their impact dumb.

Robbins ‘74

John W. Ph.D in political philosophy at Johns Hopkins University, ANSWER TO AYN RAND, 1974, p.

Since infants, as well as

AND

accept the premises.

2AC Aid Tradeoff

No link—plan is from unspent money.

Murdoch 12-8-11

Deroy Murdock is a media fellow with the Hoover Institution at Stanford University

http://www.scrippsnews.com/node/65951

Earth to the congressional

AND

moldy cash in these accounts.

Extra money has been budgeted for new aid for democratic transitions.

McInerney ‘11

Stephen McInerney, is Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED). He has extensive experience in the Middle East and North Africa, including graduate studies of Middle Eastern politics, history, and the Arabic language at the American University of Beirut and the American University in Cairo. “The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012: Democracy, Governance, and Human Rights in the Middle East”. Project on Middle East Democracy Report, July 2011. http://pomed.org/the-federal-budget-and-appropriations-for-fiscal-year-2012-democracy-governance-and-human-rights-in-the-middle-east/

The administration has

AND

in Syria, Libya, Yemen, or elsewhere.

US just extended aid to Morocco

MACP 12/23

he Moroccan American Center for Policy (MACP) is a non-profit organization, Congress, President Approve Extending U.S. Aid for Morocco Reforms to Western Sahara, Advance U.S. Policy Backing Moroccan Autonomy Solution, 12/23/12 www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/congress-president-approve-extending-us-aid-for-morocco-reforms-to-western-sahara-advance-us-policy-backing-moroccan-autonomy-solution-136156558.html, AD1/2/12

Congress has approved and

AND

and elsewhere in the country.

Evidence for water war risks is wrong—50 years of history proves the theory wrong

Alam 11

Dr Undala Alam lectures at Queen’s University Belfast on public policy and environmental sustainability Water Resources Specialist/TRIB Coordinator, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Water politics and common sense. http://www.global-briefing.org/2011/01/water-politics-and-common-sense/

The likelihood of

AND

consumes 75 percent of the total.

Water wars won’t happen – cooperation more likely.

Woube 11

Mengistu Woube (PhD) is an Associate Professor in Social and Economic Geography with emphasis on natural resources, environmental and agricultural issues. He was a Visiting Scholar at Michigan State University

THE ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION ALONG THE BLUE NILE RIVER BASIN: THE NEED OF COOPERATION  http://www.thereporterethiopia.com/Politics-and-Law/the-environmental-degradation-along-the-blue-nile-river-basin-the-need-of-cooperation.html

Traditionally, water has

AND

the loss of the other.

1AR USAID

USAID solves best.

Dobransky 11 – PhD Candidate @ Kent State

Steve, “The Coming Crisis in US Foreign Aid Policy,” http://www.unc.edu/depts/diplomat/item/2011/0104/comm/dobransky_coming.html

The argument against

AND

compelling reasons to do so.

Coercion

Must evaluate consequences – the alternative is moral absolutism that generates evil

Isaac ‘2—Professor of Political Science at Indiana-Bloomington

Jeffery C., Director of the Center for the Study of Democracy and Public Life, PhD from Yale  Dissent Magazine, Vol. 49, Iss. 2, “Ends, Means, and Politics,” p. Proquest.

As a result, the most

AND

undermines political effectiveness.

IRC CP

Encouraging privatized aid will cause massive failures and collapse of U.S. credibility.

Dobransky ‘11

Steve Dobransky, Adjunct Professor-Poli Sci-Cleveland State University. “The Coming Crisis in U.S. Foreign Aid: Policy Options for the 21^st Century”. 2011. http://www.unc.edu/depts/diplomat/item/2011/0104/comm/dobransky_coming.html

The argument against

AND

contractor Blackwater (now, Xe).

Privitization of aid leads to wasteful spending and incompetence.

Dickinson ‘5

Laura A. Dickinson, Associate Professor, University of Connecticut School of Law. “Government For Hire: Privatizing Foreign Affairs and the Problem of Accountability Under International Law”. 47 Wm. & Mary L. Rev. 135 (2005).

Private aid providers

AND

apply to private organizations.

The most recent studies prove the water war thesis wrong

Steiberg 11

Joseph J Steinberg, Troy University  Revisiting the Water Wars Theory: How Reasonable States Really Are

http://www.e-ir.info/?p=6211

Do states go to war

AND

 dispute even 15 years later.

No risk of water wars – cooperation is more likely – empirically proven.

Barnaby ‘9

Wendy Barnaby, editor of People & Science, the magazine published by the British Science Association. “Do nations go to war over water?”. Nature. London: Mar 19, 2009. Vol. 458, Iss. 7236; pg. 282. ProQuest.

The United Nations warned

AND

do not necessarily fight over it.

A/T Topicality

We meet – plan says ‘democratic governance’, even if they win not all of good governance is democracy assistance the plan would be.

Phillips and Mitchell ‘8

David L. Phillips is a project director of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy and currently a visiting scholar at Columbia University’s Center for the Study of Human Rights, and Lincoln A. Mitchell is the Arnold A. Saltzman Assistant Professor in the Practice of International Politics at Columbia University’s School of International and Political Affairs. “Enhancing Democracy Assistance”. January 2008. www.acus.org/files/.../Enhancing%20Democracy%20Assistance.pdf

This report offers recommendations--- recommendations for each

Democracy assistance is all aid for the primary purpose of democracy – three categories: Political Process, Governing Institutions, and Civil Society.

Carothers ‘2k

Thomas Carothers, he vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is the founder and director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program and leading authority on democracy promotion and democratization worldwide as well as an expert on U.S. foreign policy. “Taking stock of democracy assistance”, in: M. Cox, G. J. Ikenberry & T. Inoguchi, (Eds) American Democracy Promotion. Impulses, Strategies, and Impacts. 2000. Questia. P.188

The term 'democracy assistance'--- educational exchange programmes

Their interp overlimits and excludes post-Conflict states and authoritarian states with no chance of political reform or elections like Libya, Syria, and Bahrain, which is half of the topic and destroys the value and use of democracy assistance for peace-building which internal link turns their precision arguments.

Lappin ‘10

Richard Lappin. “The Unique Challenges of Post-Conflict Democracy Assistance”. 2010. Peace Review: A Journal of Social Justice, 22:178–183. EBSCO Host.

On a purely practical level--- dedicated to the fostering of sustainable peace

Their precision and bluring arguments are inevitable – either their only focus on political process such as election and political parties which makes the topic infinitely small or they include civil society which makes their bluring argument inevitable.

Carothers ‘10

Thomas Carothers vice president for studies at Carnegie, a visiting faculty member at Oxford University, Central European University, and the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, AB from Harvard, M.SC London School of Economics and JD Harvard, and has written extensively on democratic issues. “Democracy Aid Enters the Socioeconomic Domain”. Presented at the Democracy and Development Workshop. March 24, 2010. www.sais-jhu.edu/centers/schwartzforum/pdf/carotherspaper.pdf

A second substantive broadening of democracy--- supporting governance reforms.

A/T On Case

Credibility solves – empirically restrains conflict.

Tang ‘5

Shiping Tang, associate research fellow and deputy director of the Center for Regional Security Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, January-March, “Reputation, Cult of Reputation, and International Conflict,” Security Studies, Vol. 14, No. 1, p. 34-62

The problem, of course--- unless specified otherwise

A/T Pltx

Won’t pass—their evidence is just hype

National Journal 1/17

Despite Hype, Payroll-Tax Deal Remains Elusive, Lexis

Despite both parties'--- team to get an earful.

Alt caus – EU

Bailleul 1-4

Dominique, “Gerald Celente: EU Collapses in 90 Days, Bank Holiday and War,” Beacon Equity Research, http://www.beaconequity.com/gerald-celente-eu-collapses-in-90-days-bank-holiday-and-war-2012-01-04/

Hysteria of the horrid possibility--- Celente said forcefully.

SOPA thumps

Bravender 1-18

Robin and Kenneth Vogel, “SOPA: Obama could pay for decision in lost Hollywood cash,” http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/71635.html#ixzz1k6Rvjn7V

But when it came time for Obama--- cut victory,” that person added

Won’t boost the economy.

Reich ‘11 – Professor of Public Policy at Cal Berkeley

Robert Reich, a professor of public policy at the University of California at Berkeley, was secretary of labor during the Clinton administration. “Obama's jobs plan isn't enough”. September 8, 2011. The War Room Blog @ Salon. http://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_room/2011/09/09/obama_job_program/index.html

But a jeer because--- to be a double dip

Recent conflicts prove there is zero correlation between economic decline and war

Barnett 9

Thomas, Senior Managing Director of Enterra Solutions LLC, Contributing Editor and Online Columnist for Esquire, The New Rules: Security Remains Stable Amid Financial Crisis, Aprodex, Asset Protection Index,

When the global financial--- training local forces

No impact to new recession – its resilient

Keystone ‘11

“3 Ways the Next Recession Will Be Different”. http://keystoneresearch.org/media-center/media-coverage/3-ways-next-recession-will-be-different

If the second half of 2009--- of their debt.

The plan is bipartisan

Margon 11

Sarah Margon is the Associate Director for Sustainable Security at American Progress., 8/22, “Libya Will Still Need Help After Qaddafi’s Departure”, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/08/libya_next_stage.html

Going forward,--- do it any other way

Bipartisanship is key to the agenda

Rottinghaus and Tedin 11 – Professors of Political Science

Brandon Rottinghaus, Professor of Political Science, and Kent L. Tedin, Professor of Political Science, 2011, “Presidential “Going Bipartisan,” Opposition Reaction and the Consequences for Political Opinions,” The Monkey Cage, http://www.themonkeycage.org/Going%20Bipartisan%20Final.pdf

As candidate and chief executive---2010 lame duck Congress

Winners win.

Marshall and Prins ’11 – Associate Professors of Political Science

Bryan W Marshall, associate professor of political science at Miami Universityand Brandon C Prins, associate professor of political science at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville& Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, “Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force”. September 2011.  Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3.

Presidents rely heavily on --- managing political capital at home

Obama won’t solve warming and China won’t agree so they can’t solve.

Hale ‘11

(Thomas, PhD Candidate in the Department of Politics at Princeton University and a Visiting Fellow at LSE Global Governance, London School of Economics, “A Climate Coalition of the Willing” The Washington Quarterly, Winter 2011, http://thewashingtonquarterly.com/11winter/docs/11winter_Hale.pdf)

It is not hard to see why--- in the near future

Warming doesn’t lead to extinction

Barrett 6 – Professor of International Policy @ Johns Hopkins

Scott, Professor and Director of International Policy, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, 2006, “CATASTROPHE: The Problem of Averting Global Catastrophe,” Chicago Journal of International Law, Lexis

Less dramatic changes--- destroy all humanity.

Transportation is before Payroll and unemployment

Goldman 1/18

Ben, city planner, http://dc.streetsblog.org/2012/01/18/congress-reconvenes-with-transportation-deadlines-fast-approaching/

Here’s a recap and preview--- being unworkable

It’ll be a fight

The Hill 1/17

Union targets vulnerable GOP freshmen on FAA bill, http://thehill.com/blogs/transportation-report/aviation/204599-union-targets-vulnerable-gop-freshmen-on-faa-bill

Short-term legislation--- that includes it

Political capital not true.

Dickinson 9 – Professor of Political Science

Matthew, professor of political science at Middlebury College and taught previously at Harvard University where he worked under the supervision of presidential scholar Richard Neustadt, 5-26-2009, Presidential Power: A NonPartisan Analysis of Presidential Politics, “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power,”. http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/

As for Sotomayor --- Halo III on his Xbox. 

Global decline inevitable – global trends

AP 1-18

“World Bank warns of global growth slowdown,” http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-500395_162-57360878/world-bank-warns-of-global-growth-slowdown/

The World Bank warned--- said last week.

A/T E-Gov CP

World Bank proves that there is only a risk e-gov decreases corruption

Kenny ‘7

Charles Kenny, “Infrastructure Governance and Corruption: Where Next?,” August 2007, World Bank Report

Within the procurement process--- sector and project level

And, even free access only improves infrastructure- only a risk they solve the aff worse

Kenny ‘7

Charles Kenny, “Infrastructure Governance and Corruption: Where Next?,” August 2007, World Bank Report

On the demand side--- improving infrastructure outcomes

A/T EU

The EU fails.

Bicchi ‘10

Federica Bicchi is Lecturer in the International Relations of Europe at the Department of International Relations, London School of Economics. “Dilemmas of implementation: EU democracy assistance in the Mediterranean”. Democratization Volume 17, Issue 5, 2010. Taylor and Francis Online.

This issue is worth exploring--- in various and divergent ways

Europe cannot solve – only the U.S. has the influence and political clout to solve.

Grygiel 10/3

Jakub J. Grygiel, CEPA Senior Fellow and Associate Professor at SAIS. “Great Powers and Democracy Promotion”. October 3, 2011. Center for European Policy Analysis. http://www.cepa.org/ced/view.aspx?record_id=319

Finally, we cannot outsource--- consequences of their actions

US is the anti-corruption leader- most effective in creating partnerships

Donnelly ‘11

(Shaun, former USTR for the Middle East and Europe, “The Neglected Pillar: America’s Economic Agenda in the Middle East,” 6-22-11, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3373)

Fighting corruption --- policy advocacy

A/T Orientalism K

Their link is false.

Nye ‘11

Joseph S. Nye, a professor at Harvard University, was rated by a recent poll as the most influential scholar on American foreign policy. “Democracy’s drama in terrorism’s theater”. August 4, 2011. http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/04/democracy%E2%80%99s-drama-in-terrorism%E2%80%99s-theater/

Both Bill Clinton and George W. Bush--- well-managed elections

The role of the ballot is to simulate enactment of the plan. That’s the most productive way to engage Mid East politics

Heydemann ‘2, director – Program on Philanthropy and Nonprofit Sector @ Social Science Research Council, frmr Prof Poli Sci – Columbia,

(Steve, “Defending the Discipline,” Journal of Democracy Vol. 13, No. 3, Muse)

Though Kramer's book--- course of the 1990s

Method focus causes endless paradigm wars

Wendt ‘98, professor of international security – Ohio State University

(Alexander, “On Constitution and Causation in International Relations,” British International Studies Association) 

As a community--- caricatures of science

Assessing the Middle East in terms of power relations is not an oversimplification—their argument is an academic fallacy

Doran 11—Prof @ NYU

Michael, Doran Replies, Foreign Affairs, Jul/Aug2011, Vol. 90, Issue 4

Kaye and Wehrey exhibit--- endless grains of sand

A hands-off approach to the Arab Spring reinforces Orientalism- creates the illusion Arab countries can’t self-govern and isolates them- engagement key to create cosmopolitan environment

Sadiki ‘11

Larbi, Senior Lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University of Exeter, “The mathematics of the Arab Spring”,

Two fundamental principles--- incapacity to speak back

That representations shape reality is a non-sequitur.  Our plan is necessary to address the practical consequences of current representations. 

Teitelbaum & Litvak ‘6          

(Joshua & Meir, Senior Fellows, Moshe Dayan Center for Middle East and African Studies, Tel Aviv Univ., “Students, Teachers, and Edward Said: Taking Stock of Orientalism, http://meria.idc.ac.il/journal/2006/issue1/jv10no1a2.html)

By ignoring the importance---"highly exaggerated stereotyping."

Engagement is key- shift to a global liberal world order is key to solve multiple scenarios for extinction

Shaw ’1 

(Martin, Professor of IR & Politics  @U of Sussex, The Unfinished Global Revolution: Intellectuals and the New Politics of IR, )

The new politics of international--- and politics, are intertwined

Neg impact claims mistake causation and correlation.  Orientalist representations don’t motivate concrete violence.

Rotter ‘2k       

(Andrew, Professor of History at Colgate, “Saidism without Said: Orientalism and U.S. Diplomatic History,” AMERICAN HISTORICAL REVIEW, 105(4), October)

A third and yet more--- U.S. foreign relations, on which more shortly.

We should focus on cause and effect.  This doesn’t exclude debates over representations, but it means their K isn’t a trump card

Rotter ‘2k                   

(Andrew, Professor of History at Colgate, “Saidism without Said: Orientalism and U.S. Diplomatic History,” American Historical Review, 105(4), October)

For diplomatic historians --- preeminently a discourse

Prioritizes epistemology and ontology is flawed and leads to paralysis.

Owen 2

David, Reader in Political Theory at the University of Southampton, Reorienting International Relations: On Pragmatism, Pluralism and Practical Reasoning”, Millennium: Journal of International Studies, Vol. 31, No. 3,

Commenting on the ‘philosophical turn’ --- they can, collectively, generate

ROUND 6 – PITT RR

VS. HARVARD DT, JUDGE: HERNDON, J.

PLAN

The United States federal government should provide technical assistance for the democratic opposition to Bashar Al-Assad.

ADVANTAGES

·         Assad collapse inev

·         Stability (Saudi/Iran war, ME war goes nuclear)

·         New-ish Iran advantage

NEW-ISH IRAN ADVANTAGE

Obama’s Syria policy abdicates U.S. leadership – even if Assad falls Iran will work to ensure its regional influence – only U.S. action can ensure successful transition and regional hegemony.

Doran 12/13  Michael Doran, Roger Hertog Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy. “United States Policy in Syria: Masterful Inaction?”. Up Front Blog. Brookings Institute. December 13, 2011. http://www.brookings.edu/

Salman Sheikh and I look at the rise and fall of … does not join the game, it is unlikely to win.

U.S. assistance to opposition is critical to an alliance with a post-Assad regime to cripple Hezbollah and encircle Iran.

Nassar ’11 Galal Nassar. “Superpower checkmate”. July 6, 2011. Al-Ahram. http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1054/op2.htm

But what are the ramifications and possible repercussions … influence and facilitate the encirclement of Iran.

Failure of U.S. to challenge and limit Iranian hegemony will cause U.S. hegemonic decline globally.

Etzioni ’11 Amitai Etzioni is a professor of international relations at George Washington University and author of Security First: For a Muscular, Moral Foreign Policy. “The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility”. March-April 2011. Military Review. http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf

As of the beginning of 2011, these Sunni nations, … responsibilities and live up to its commitments overseas.

Heg decline results in global conflict—successors won’t fill in and multiple hotspots escalate

Brzezinski 12—Professor of Foreign Policy @ Johns Hopkins

Zbigniew, After America, Foreign Policy, Jan/Dec 2012, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/03/after_america?page=0,0

For if America falters, the world is … a dangerous slide into global turmoil.

Hezbollah is increasing in Southeast Asia and will attack the Strait of Malacca.

Levitt 1/18  Matthew Levitt is director of The Washington Institute's Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence. “Hizballah Poised to Strike in Southeast Asia”. January 18, 2012. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3443

Hizballah in Southeast Asia In between … Hizballah cell that Atris Hussein and his escaped accomplice were almost certainly overseeing.

An attack on the strait will be an LNG attack

Turkish Weekly 10  The Straits of Malacca Under the Threat of a Maritime Terrorist Attack, 24 March 2010 http://www.turkishweekly.net/op-ed/2646/the-straits-of-malacca-under-the-threat-of-a-maritime-terrorist-attack.html

The nexus of piracy and terrorism is indeed a real phenomenon … The area of concern will be nearer to the Sumatra coastlines where ample strategic positioning is conducive for the attacks.

LNG accidents cause extinction

Lovins 1  Lovins and Lovins, “Brittle Power,”. 200. http://www.rmi.org/images/other/EnergySecurity/S82-03_BrPwrParts123.pdf)

LNG is less than half as dense as water, so a cubic meter of LNG … about fifty-five Hiroshima bombs.

A terror attack on the straits of Malacca threatens world trade

Roell 9--President Institute for Strategic- Political- Security- and Economic Consultancy.  Peter, Maritime Terrorism – A Threat to World Trade? Statement by Dr. Peter Roell at the International Conference on Comprehensive Security in the Asia-Pacific Region, organised by Asian Political & International Studies Association (APISA) and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in collaboration with the Keio University, 30 Nov - 1 Dec 2009, Tokyo, Japan

The strategically important Straits of Malacca is one of the critical choke points. …. threatened by maritime terrorism.

Free trade solves nuclear war

Copley News Service 99, 12/1/99. Lexis.

For decades, many children in America and other countries … world peace shouldn't be protesting world trade. They should be celebrating it.

2AC AT: T – DIRECTLY POLITICAL

Counter-interp –

Democracy assistance can challenge the current government through support to the opposition.

Carothers ‘9 (Thomas Carothers is vice-president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is the author or editor of many books on democracy promotion. “Democracy Assistance: Political vs. Developmental?”. Journal of Democracy. January 2009, Volume 20, Number 1.  http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/carothers-democracy_assistance-political_vs_developmental.pdf)

Method of supporting democracy: … to broaden access to political information.

Technical assistance for democratic transition is topical.

Huber ‘8 Daniela, Jerusalem IR professor. “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies”, Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 13, No. 1, March, ebsco, ldg

The term democracy assistance is used in academic literature… It also implies that DA is more than electoral assistance.

2AC ME WAR ESCALATES

Syria is on the brink of civil war – spillsover throughout the region.

Oweis 1/13.  Khaled Yacoub Oweis. Reuters. January 13, 2012. “Syrian tanks attack town amid civil war warning”. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/13/us-syria-idUSTRE8041A820120113

Unrest in Syria cost at least 15 lives Friday and troops backed by tanks attacked Zabadani, … where its closest allies are Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah group.

1AR SOLVES ANTI-AMERICANISM

Plan solves existing anti-Americanism, no kiss

Tobin ’11, Jonathan S. Tobin, journalist, “U.S. Support Doesn’t Taint Syrian Protests,” Commentary Magazine. 7/8/11. www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/07/08/american-support-doesn%E2%80%99t-taint-syrian-protests/

U.S. Ambassador Robert S. Ford and his French colleague Eric …who will now know they are not alone.

2AC AT: IRAN PROLIF TURN

Israel will sabotage negotiations

Dreyfuss 1-17 – Investigative Journalist.  Robert, “Will Israel Sabotage US-Iran Diplomacy?,” The Nation, http://www.thenation.com/blog/165683/will-israel-sabotage-us-iran-diplomacy

Like the Bush administration before it, the Obama administration …to inflame opinion so that diplomacy, once again, fails.

2AC AT: POLITICS

Keystone will be used to block extension.

Ferrechio 1/21  Susan Ferrechio, Chief Congressional Correspondent for Washington Examiner. 1/21/2012.

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/article/gop-will-revive-keystone-deal-obama-killed/327946

President Obama's decision last week to deny… the pipeline because it would create badly needed jobs.

Obama immigration XO causes fights.

Hallowell 1/6.  Billy Hallowell has been working in journalism and media for more than a decade. His writings have appeared in Human Events, Mediaite and on FOXNews.com, among other outlets. Hallowell has a B.A. in journalism and broadcasting from the College of Mount Saint Vincent in Riverdale, New York and an M.S. in social research from Hunter College in Manhattan http://www.theblaze.com/stories/report-obama-admin-will-circumvent-congress-with-new-illegal-immigration-rule/

The waiver shift is the latest move by President Barack Obama to make changes to immigration … has accused Obama repeatedly of not enforcing immigration law.

Alt caus – EU

Bailleul 1-4  Dominique, “Gerald Celente: EU Collapses in 90 Days, Bank Holiday and War,” Beacon Equity Research, http://www.beaconequity.com/gerald-celente-eu-collapses-in-90-days-bank-holiday-and-war-2012-01-04/

Hysteria of the horrid possibility of a European meltdown and …  “There’s no way to bail out the European nations,” Celente said forcefully.

Plan would come from the OCO – no fights.

USGLC 12/21

U.S. Global Leadership Coalition. December 21, 2011. “International Affairs Budget Update”.

http://www.usglc.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/USGLC-IAB-Budge-Update-12-21-11-FINAL.pdf

Overseas Contingency Operations The OCO funding level is …freeing up additional funding under the base budget.

Extending benefits prolongs the recession – consumer spending does not hasten the recovery.

Rose 11 - professor of economics at the University of Missouri-St. Louis.  David, “Why Congress should not extend unemployment benefits,” 9-20, CSM, http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2011/0920/Why-Congress-should-not-extend-unemployment-benefits

The president is calling for yet another extension of unemployment benefits… This prolongs the unemployment of others.

Recent conflicts prove there is zero correlation between economic decline and war

Barnett 9.  Thomas, Senior Managing Director of Enterra Solutions LLC, Contributing Editor and Online Columnist for Esquire, The New Rules: Security Remains Stable Amid Financial Crisis, Aprodex, Asset Protection Index, http://www.aprodex.com/the-new-rules--security-remains-stable-amid-financial-crisis-398-bl.aspx

When the global financial crisis struck roughly a year ago, …for example, hasn't led us to anything beyond advising and training local forces.

No impact to new recession – its resilient

Keystone ’11 “3 Ways the Next Recession Will Be Different”. http://keystoneresearch.org/media-center/media-coverage/3-ways-next-recession-will-be-different

If the second half of 2009 and 2010 were a time of economic recovery, then 2011 has by and large felt … paying off more of their debt.

Intrinsic Perm

Malacca attack collapse the econ.

Marshall 10 Andrew, Maritime terrorism: What are the risks?, http://blogs.reuters.com/andrew-marshall/2010/03/05/maritime-terrorism-what-are-the-risks/

A maritime attack, however, could have magnified… following lobbying from Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia.

Political capital not true.

Dickinson 9 – Professor of Political Science.  Matthew, professor of political science at Middlebury College and taught previously at Harvard University where he worked under the supervision of presidential scholar Richard Neustadt, 5-26-2009, Presidential Power: A NonPartisan Analysis of Presidential Politics, “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power,”. http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/

As for Sotomayor, from here the path toward almost certain confirmation goes as follows… the Senate debate in order to play Halo III on his Xbox. 

1AR POLITICS – EU TAKE-OUT

Bunch of other countries in the Eurozone are going to collapse.

RT 1-14“Eurozone downgrade: Is collapse imminent?,” http://rt.com/news/eurozone-collapse-credit-downgrade-803/

European leaders are rushing to contain …and in the core countries in Europe,” he said.

99% chance the Eurozone collapses

Cooper 1/2 Rachel Cooper. January 2, 2012. The Telegraph (UK) “Eurozone collapse 'starts this year' says CEBR”. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8987886/Eurozone-collapse-starts-this-year-says-CEBR.html

As the troubled euro marked its 10th anniversary this … said Douglas McWilliams, the CEBR's chief executive.

Europe takes down the global economy

Freeman 1-16 - Communications Manager, W. P. Carey School of Business Debbie, “New year for the Euro: What could happen and why Americans should be concerned,” Press Zoom, http://presszoom.com/story_170741.html

Despite a slowly improving U.S. economy, … Ongoing global balance-sheet problems already are stalling the economic pace.

Structural factors mean they can’t solve – collapses global financial markets

The Economic Times 1/5  January 5, 2012. “Collapse of euro will hit EU, global financial system: George Soros”

The collapse of the euro … those imbalances," he added.

No causality – economic decline doesn’t cause war

Ferguson ‘6.  Niall Ferguson, MA, D.Phil., is the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University and William Ziegler Professor at Harvard Business School, “The Next War of the World”, Foreign Affairs 85.5, Proquest

There are many unsatisfactory … crises were not followed by wars.

Empirics are on our side.

Naim in ’10 Moises Naim, Editor in Chief of Foreign Policy Magazine. Foreign Policy. “It Didn't Happen”. January/February 2010. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/01/04/it_didnt_happen?page=full

Just a few months ago, the consensus among influential thinkers … common predictions about the crisis that have been proven wrong

2AC AT: RUSSIA RELATIONS TURN

The Russian economy is resilient.

Guriev ’10 - Professor of Economics @ the New Economic School in Moscow

Sergei Guriev, Morgan Stanley Professor of Economics and Rector of the New Economic School in Moscow, “How to reform the Russian economy”. Centre For European Reform Policy Brief. July 2010. www.cer.org.uk/pdf/pb_russian_economy_jul10.pdf

Today’s leadership in Russia has more economic … outlook is therefore similar to the experience of Latin America’s resource-dependent economies in the 20th century.

No impact to Russian economy

Blackwill ‘9 Robert Blackwill, former associate dean of the Kennedy School of Government and Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Planning. RAND. “The Geopolitical Consequences of the World Economic Recession—A Caution”. http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/2009/RAND_OP275.pdf)

Now on to Russia. Again, five years from today. Did the global recession and Russia’s …changed in any serious way by the economic crisis.

Relations low and alt cause

Clover 12 Charles, “End is nigh for Russia’s ‘reset’ with US,” Financial Times, 1/2/2012. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f406272a-3546-11e1-84b9-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1kD0U4XxV

Almost as soon as Russia and the US declared a “reset” in their relations … election cycles, there is little incentive for either side to take big steps toward reconciliation.

Russia will not do anything about Syria.

Mead 1/2/12.  Walter Russell Mead. January 2, 2012. “Bad News for Assad: Putin Too Busy To Take His Calls”. Blog at the American Interest. http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/

The increasingly gore-spattered Syrian tyrant Bashar Assad … when Assad desperately needs all the help he can get.

2AC AT: TURKEY CP

Turkey has no credibility with the protesters – means the CP fails.

Weiss 10/26.  Michael Weiss is the Communications Director of The Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank that promotes democracy and human rights abroad. “Turkey's Hand in the Syrian Opposition”. October 26, 2011. The Atlantic. http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/10/turkeys-hand-in-the-syrian-opposition/247330/

The trouble is, Turkey's credibility among … over to Assad's infamous mukhabarat secret police.

International Fiat is Bad:

Balkans conflicts won’t escalate.

Fettweis ‘11 – Professor of Political Science @ Tulane.  Christopher, Professor of Political Science @ Tulane, Dangerous Times?: The International Politics of Great Power Peace, pg. 85

The trend is apparent on every continent. … repel far more than they attract.

Foreign policy incoherence means CP doesn’t solve the net-benefit.

Afrasiabi 10/12  Kaveh L Afrasiabi, PhD, is the author of After Khomeini: New Directions in Iran's Foreign Policy. “Misstep in Turkey's neighborly ties”. Asia Times. October 12, 2011. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MJ12Ak03.html

Already, Turkey's embrace of the bid by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization … to Turkey's quest for gaining a new strategic foothold in the Middle East.

2AC AT: SANCTIONS CP

Helping develop civil resistance techniques maximizes opposition’s power and ensures a peaceful transition.

Tabler 11 Andrew J. Tabler is a Next Generation fellow in the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where he focuses on Syria and U.S. policy in the Levant.  November 9, 2011, testimony for US Senate hearing on “U.S. Policy in Syria,” http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/html/pdf/TablerSenate20111109.pdf

Help the Syrian opposition plan ahead: The fear generated by the regime crackdown, … political power of the peaceful protest movement.

And, U.S. lead from behind strategy allows Turkey to lead the opposition – ensures Muslim Brotherhood takeover.

Weiss 10/26  Michael Weiss is the Communications Director of The Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank that promotes democracy and human rights abroad. “Turkey's Hand in the Syrian Opposition”. October 26, 2011. The Atlantic. http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/10/turkeys-hand-in-the-syrian-opposition/247330/

The Muslim Brotherhood, which belatedly joined the body en masse… in the political landscape of post-Assad Syria

Leads to Israeli conflict

Helal 11 – former associate researcher for Al-Zaytouna Centre for Studies and Consultation.  Feras, “THE ISRAELI POSITION TOWARDS THE SYRIAN INTIFADA,” Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, http://english.dohainstitute.org/Home/Details/5ea4b31b-155d-4a9f-8f4d-a5b428135cd5/284e36f8-7bd1-4d84-89a6-a1e9ee1b835a

Some of the official statements from Israel, …spell the end of the possibility of Syrian-Israeli peace.[24]

Plan: The United States federal government should provide support for transparent democratic governance in Libya.

1AC Liberal Internationalism

Advantage __: Liberal Internationalism

The U.S. must capitalize on the momentum of the “Arab Spring” to reverse a decade of authoritarian momentum – failure emboldens Russia, China, and Iran to behave aggressively and challenge the liberal international order.

Puddington ‘11

Arch Puddington, researcher at Freedom House, responsible for preparation of Freedom in the World reports. September 2011. “Democracy’s Stake in the Arab Spring”. Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs. Vol. 5, No. 3. online: http://israelcfr.com/documents/5-3/5-3-3-ArchPuddington.pdf

To be effective,

freedom everywhere else.

The US needs to take the lead and aggressively support democracy in Libya – anything else is perceived as managing decline and turning its back on global democracy.

Hamid 10/1

Shadi Hamid, Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center. “What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring”. October 1, 2011. http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/1001_obama_hamid.aspx

Throughout the Arab spring

“stable,” repressive regimes.

Successful Libyan transition key to US image—overwhelms aftermath of military mission

Feaver '11

Peter, Professor of Political Science at Duke, director of the Triangle Institute for Security Studies, PhD in Government from Harvard, Member of NSC during Bush and Clinton administrations "Five Reasons it is Premature to Declare Mission Accomplished for Obama's Libya Strategy ," 8/22/11  shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/22/five_reasons_it_is_premature_to_declare_mission_accomplished_for_obamas_libya_strat AD 1/22/12

3. Because this operation

is what comes after.

The plan is key – it reinvigorates our national strategy in line with our traditional values.

Lajeunesse ‘11

Gabriel Lajeunesse, Writer, Advocate. “The Arab Spring and the Illusion of a Pragmatic Approach to Foreign Policy”. October 12, 2011. The Huffington Post.

As Arab Spring

African, or Asian Spring.

Outsourcing our support for democracy in Libya allows Russia, China, and Iran to advance authoritarianism – causes regional conflicts that risk great power war – only U.S. support for democracy can challenge their ideology.

Grygiel ‘11

Dr. Jakub Grygiel is a Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and the George H.W. Bush Senior Associate Professor of International Relations at Johns Hopkins-SAIS. “Great Powers and Democracy Promotion”. October 3, 2011. Central Europe Digest. http://www.cepa.org/ced/view.aspx?record_id=319

Now that the President is

democracy and human rights.

Support for democratic movements is critical to securing a liberal international order – critical to dampen international conflicts and solve resource and environmental conflicts – only the U.S. can ensure success.

Ikenberry ’11 – Professor of Politics and International Affairs @ Princeton

G. John Ikenberry, the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University. “A World of Our Making”. Democracy A Journal of Ideas. Issue #21, Summer 2011. http://www.democracyjournal.org/21/a-world-of-our-making-1.php?page=1

This spring’s dramatic

to its long-term security.

Resource scarcity and environmental conflicts will escalate globally.

De Souza 11

Mike, National affairs reporter; BA from Concordia University, “Energy-starved future looms, military warns” Postmedia News 4/18 http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Energy+starved+future+looms+military+warns/4634442/story.html

The planet is running

highest potential impacts

A U.S. liberal leadership is critical to effective international institutions and cooperation that solves all global problems and great power conflict – there is no effective alternative.

Kromah 9

(Lamii Moivi Kromah, Department of International Relations University of the Witwatersrand, February 2009, “The Institutional Nature of U.S. Hegemony: Post 9/11”, http://wiredspace.wits.ac.za/bitstream/handle/10539/7301/MARR%2009.pdf)

A final major gain

measure of international security. 57

Nuclear War

Dyer 4

Gwynne, PhD in Military and Middle Eastern History at King's College London 

Toronto Star, The End of War, 12/30/04, http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1230-05.htm

War is deeply embedded

existing state system.

Independently, renewed Russian aggression threatens global nuclear war.

Blank 9

Dr. Stephen Blank, Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College. March 2009. “Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?,” online: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf

Proliferators or nuclear

or their own people.172

And, their impact defense no longer applies.

Palmer 1/12

Alex Palmer. “Russia Rising”. January 12, 2012. Harvard International Review. http://hir.harvard.edu/politics-of-disease/russia-rising?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+HarvardInternationalReview+%28Harvard+International+Review%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

At a time of

winter comes a new spring.

Stability Adv

The NTC’s credibility is on the brink – militias are gaining strength and protesters are demanding transperancy.

Stephen 1/28

Christopher Stephen reported from the Libyan war for The Guardian. “The Lesson of Bani Walid”. January 28, 2012. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/27/the_lesson_of_bani_walid?page=full

This minor uprising

, as army chief of staff.

And, the lack of democratic legitimacy allows militias to buck pressure to disarm and integrate – the result will be a new civil war.

Maxwell 1/17

James Maxwell, Egypt and Libya analyst, holds two degrees from the University of Glasgow , an MA (Hons) in Politics and an MSc in Legal and Political Thought. He has a particular interest in liberal political theory and its critiques, left nationalism and theories of uneven development. His work has appeared in The Independent, The Times, The New Statesman, and Bella Caledonia. 1/17/12. “Libya’s Militia Problem”. http://thinkafricapress.com/libya/militia-problem

On January 1, a militia

mutually-agreed set of regulations.

And, technical assistance and training is essential to building transparent and credible institutions – that allows for successful disarming and reintegration of militias.

ICG 12/14

International Crisis Group, independent non-profit NGO. “Holding Libya Together: Security Challenges After Qadhafi”. Middle East/North Africa Report N°1. 15 – 14 December 2011. http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/North%20Africa/115%20Holding%20Libya%20Together%20--%20Security%20Challenges%20after%20Qadhafi.pdf

In principle, there

to get moving again.

Africa Impact

Libyan instability will spillover throughout Africa causing failed states.

Ignatieff 10/24

Michael Ignatieff is the Carr Professor and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard. 10/24/2011. Reuters. “Libya’s revolution pushes democracy forward”. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/24/idUS413846800520111024

All across the Middle

Qaeda in the Magrheb.

Great power war.

Yoo 5

John, Professor of Law, University of California at Berkeley School of Law, Failed States, Int’l Colloquium, Online

Failed states pose

problem of failed states.

African is strategically vital – even regional wars threaten global escalation.

Glick 7 – senior ME Fellow @ Center for Security Policy in Washington DC

Caroline B. Glick, the senior Middle East fellow at the Center for Security Policy in Washington, D.C., The Center for Security Policy is a non-profit, non-partisan national security organization. 12/11/2007. “Condi's African holiday”. http://www.carolineglick.com/e/2007/12/condis-african-holiday.php?pf=yes

The Horn of Africa

and global powers.

The U.S. is providing assistance to now to secure missing MANPADS – demobilization of the militias is key to effectiveness.

Brannen 2/12

Kate Brannen. “U.S. Still Hunting for Missing Libyan MANPADS”. February 2, 2012. Defense News.  http://www.defensenews.com/article/20120202/DEFREG02/302020009/U-S-Still-Hunting-Missing-Libyan-MANPADS?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|FRONTPAGE

The U.S. State

dollars ($1.6 million).

MANPADs Impact

MANPADS proliferation causes Afghan instability and takeover.

Drwiega 12/6

Andrew Drwiega is a senior defence journalist with a particular focus on military rotorcraft. He was the editor of Defence Helicopter for seven years. Andrew has reported on attachment from Iraq three times. “Libya’s MANPADs Legacy”. Aviation Today. December 6, 2011. http://www.aviationtoday.com/rw/training/military/Libyas-MANPADs-Legacy_75305.html

It has always

Karzai government.

Causes Indo-Pak war that goes nuclear.

Foust ‘9

Joshua Foust, He’s spent the vast majority of his adult life doing defense and intelligence consulting.  In addition to writing for Registan.net, Joshua is a fellow at the American Security Project. He is also a columnist for PBS Need to Know. His writing has appeared in The Atlantic, The New York Times, Reuters, The Christian Science Monitor, The Columbia Journalism Review, and World Politics Review. “The Case for Afghanistan: Strategic Considerations”. 8/27/2009. http://www.registan.net/index.php/2009/08/27/the-case-for-afghanistan-strategic-considerations/

But this is

and do things right.

Solvency

Contention __: Solvency

The U.S. must provide technical assistance during the transition – critical to stability and reversing the perception of lead from behind – they will say yes.

Engel 11/2

Andrew Engel, a former research assistant at The Washington Institute, is a Beirut-based analyst who recently traveled across Libya. “Libya's Post-Qadhafi Challenges”. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. PolicyWatch #1866. November 2, 2011. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3417

Libya's challenges are immense

state with Islamic values.

U.S. governance assistance is key – uniquely positioned and experience means only the U.S. has a chance to be effective.

Vandewalle ‘11

Dirk Vandewalle, Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College. “The Reconstruction of Libya Local and International Constraints and Opportunities”. Testimony before the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee Washington, D.C. 6 April 2011. http://foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Vandewalle%20Testimony.pdf

The United States

can truly subscribe to.

Studies prove U.S. democracy assistance solves civil conflict

Savun and Tirone ‘11

Burcu Savun is Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh,  Daniel C. Tirone is a Ph.D. Candidate in the Department of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh, “ Foreign Aid, Democratization, and Civil Conflict: How Does Democracy Aid Affect Civil Conflict”. American Journal of Political Science. Volume 55, Issue 2, pages 233–246, April 2011.

Scholars of intrastate

early phases of democratization.