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EU CP
Text: The European Union should substantially increase its support for the European Union Election Observation Mission for Tunisia.
The EU has the requisite expertise and capacity to develop sustainable democracy in Tunisia
Paciello 11—researcher @ the International Affairs institute, specializes in Mediterranean and ME studies
(Maria Cristina, MEDPRO Technical Report No. 3 “Tunisia: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition”/ May)
The EU has a crucial role
and benefit disadvantaged regions.

SKFTA DA
KORUS will pass now
Reuters 9/13
Momentum builds for U.S. action on trade deals, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/13/us-usa-trade-deals-idUSTRE78C7QW20110913?feedType=RSS&feedName=domesticNews
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid
in tandem with the trade pacts.
Capital is key
Reuters 9/2
Obama's trade legacy in a crucible this fall, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/02/us-usa-obama-trade-idUSTRE7814CZ20110902
In addition to the challenge from organized labor
the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Plan is divisive in congress, multiple reasons
Arieff 11
Alexis, Analyst in Foreign Affairs for the Congressional Research Service, in the research report “Political Transition in Tunisia” June 27th
Congress authorizes, appropriates, and oversees
disagreements over funding priorities.

Failure to ratify SKFTA kills the US-ROK Alliance
Yonhap News 8/30
Severe damage to alliance expected if FTA fails: CRS, http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2011/08/30/52/0301000000AEN20110830000400315F.HTML
A collapse in the United States of a free trade
policymakers, many of whom would likely see it as a betrayal."
Alliance key to stop South Korean proliferation
Hughes 2007
Christopher W., PhD University of Sheffield, 1997, Reader/Associate Professor, University of Warwick. “North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons: Implications for the Nuclear Ambitions of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan,” January, Asia Policy No 3, http://www.nbr.org/publications/asia_policy/AP3/AP3Hughes.pdf
South Korea’s history of considering its nuclear options
in the absence of its own deterrent, thus enabling the reaffirmation of U.S. security guarantees.54
Escalates to global nuclear war
Cirincione 2000
Joseph, Director of the Non-Proliferation Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Foreign Policy, “The Asian Nuclear Reaction Chain”, JStor
The blocks would fall quickest and hardest in Asia, where proliferation
the first combat use of a nuclear weapon since 1945. 

Revenge K
The aff’s relation to the Middle East is mediated by 9/11- American foreign policy is grounded in a discursive frame of superpower vulnerability and revenge, coding the chaotic space of the Middle East to separate potential extremists from everyday citizens in order to exact retribution for the Twin Towers
Sadiki 9/11
(Laribi, Senior Lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University of Exeter, “The 9/11 state of mind”, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/09/2011910134022241376.html)

Nothing compares to 9/11 - two odd numbers that
and proportionate rules of military engagement.
Democracy assistance specifically is a response to the vulnerability created by 9/11 and locks in the superpower syndrome- the plan acts as a means of managing the chaotic space of the Middle East, re-making it in our image in order to eliminate the uncertainty of the Arab Spring through American democratic universalism
Gershman ‘11
(Carl, president of the National Endowment for Democracy, “Ten Years Later”, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/articles/2011-SeptOct/911-Gershman.html?utm_source=World+Affairs+Newsletter&utm_campaign=bc0dd31858-WAJ_Symposium_Gershman&utm_medium=email)

This historic turning point had the ironic effect of
the tenth anniversary of that terrible day.
The terminal impact is extinction- 9/11 created a profound American fear of vulnerability that manifests itself in the superpower syndrome, the desire to control history itself- that creates cycles of apocalyptic confrontation that demand maximum use of force- they won’t win defense because the superpower syndrome is based on revenge not rational action
Lifton ‘3
(Robert Jay, Distinguished Professor Emeritus of Psychiatry and Psychology, The City University of New York, Superpower Syndrome, pgs. 8-11)

More than that, 9/11 is not over. We are still in it
when, as they must, they come up against the irredeemable stubbornness of reality.
The Arab Spring has opened the possibility of relations to the Middle East not framed by the post-9/11 framework of vengeance- rather than approaching sweeping change with re-assertions of superpower status, we propose to ride the wave, allowing the democratic revolutions to unmake our foreign policy model and create a new series of relations between the US and the Middle East- only abandoning the aff can allow us to shirk the mantle of the 9/11 foreign policy path
Sadiki 9/11
(Laribi, Senior Lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University of Exeter, “The 9/11 state of mind”, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/09/2011910134022241376.html)

The upshot is that the 9/11 decade not only killed 100 times
rigid reproduction and memorialisation of 9/11.

Solvency 1NC

1. Fails—
   A.) Local key  
   Salem 11
   Paul Salem, 7/21/11, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, “Consolidating Egyptian Democracy”, <http://carnegie-mec.org/publications/?fa=45146&lang=en>
   A second very important level of democratisation
   deep and sustainable democracy in Egypt.
   B.) US agencies—prefer stability
   Carothers ‘11
   Thomas Carothers, he vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is the founder and director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program, which analyzes the state of democracy in the world. Think Again: Arab Democracy. March 10, 2011. http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/03/10/think-again-arab-democracy/2ba
   Not so fast. In his most recent State of the Union address
   toward a changed Middle East is easy to imagine.
   C.) Target governments-smother democracy
   Youngs 10 –(Richard, director general of FRIDE and assistant professor at the University of Warwick, June, “How to Revitalise Democracy Assistance: Recipients’ Views” http://www.fride.org/publication/777/how-to-revitalise-democracy-assistance:-recipients%27views)gw
   One related lesson learnt in previous years is that
   balance too far away from the latter. 

Democracy assistance will fail – it does not change the underlying power structures – it treats the symptoms rather than the disease-ensures backsliding
Peters ’11 – Assistance Professor of Government @ Wesleyan
Anne Mariel Peters is an assistant professor in the department of government at Wesleyan University. “Why Obama shouldn't increase democracy aid to Egypt”. February 14, 2011. The Middle East Channel. Foreign Policy. http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/14/why_obama_shouldn_t_increase_democracy_aid_to_egypt
Returning to the big picture, the most fundamental problem with
symptoms rather than the disease, and fail on both accounts.
Groups will say no to democracy assistance.
Burnell ‘2k
Peter J. Burnell, Professor of Politics and International Studies @ the University of Warwick, an invited member of the founding Executive Committee of the journal Zeitschrift für Vergleichende Politikwissenschaft and on the editorial boards of Democratization and Government and Opposition. “Democracy Assistance: The State of the Discourse” in Democracy assistance: international co-operation for democratization. 2000. p.16-17
Should the outside world first gain the assent of the state
if the consequences are perceived to be nearly all bad.
Turn- US intervention ensures backlash
Fuller ‘11
Graham E. Fuller, a former Central Intelligence Agency station chief in Kabul and vice chairman of the CIA’s National Intelligence Council, is author of The Future of Political Islam. “The Arab Revolution is Beyond America’s Control”. New Perspectives Quarterly. Volume 28, Issue 2, pages 35–39, Spring 2011. Wiley Online.
It had to come. Where, when and how exactly
numerous rebellions and anti-American expression?

EU Adv 1NC
The EU-US alliance is no longer critical to solving the world problems, and it will continue to decline due to leaders views about the alliances importance.
Helgesen ‘11
Vidar Helgesen, Secretary-General of International IDEA. “Reinvigorating the Infrastructure for Democracy Support: Strengthening multilateral mechanisms for coordinating and implementing democracy policy – what role for the EU and US”. March 3, 2011. http://www.idea.int/resources/analysis/upload/2011-03-03-International-IDEA-NDI-paper-final.pdf
Reviewing the transatlantic relationship and the
renewed energy in transatlantic support to democracy.
The EU-US alliance is no longer powerful and lack influence.
Helgesen ‘11
Vidar Helgesen, Secretary-General of International IDEA. “Reinvigorating the Infrastructure for Democracy Support: Strengthening multilateral mechanisms for coordinating and implementing democracy policy – what role for the EU and US”. March 3, 2011. http://www.idea.int/resources/analysis/upload/2011-03-03-International-IDEA-NDI-paper-final.pdf
The global power shift which is taking place
neither multilateralism nor democracy policy can be determined by these actors alone.
Proliferation impacts are empirically denied – your authors are alarmists
Krepon 9
Michael. Co-Founder of the Henry L. Stimson Center, a Diplomat Scholar at the University of Virginia, and the author of Better Safe Than Sorry: The Ironies of Living With the Bomb. "The mushroom cloud that wasn't: why inflating threats won't reduce them." Foreign Affairs 88.3 (May-June 2009).
Today, as was the case during the Cold War,
threat requires success over the long haul. 

Nonproliferation is strong now – your impact arguments are hype
Krepon 9
Michael. Co-Founder of the Henry L. Stimson Center, a Diplomat Scholar at the University of Virginia, and the author of Better Safe Than Sorry: The Ironies of Living With the Bomb. "The mushroom cloud that wasn't: why inflating threats won't reduce them." Foreign Affairs 88.3 (May-June 2009).
The world is dangerous enough as it is; threat inflation
averting a nuclear catastrophe in the twenty-first century.  
The vote doesn’t change anything about the peace process- escalation not happening
Muasher 9/14
Marwan Muasher, Carnegie Endowment “What Peace Process?” September 14, 2011, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/09/14/what-peace-process/54av#violence
What is the danger that a UN vote
international community will say that this is unacceptable and respond.
Israel-Palestine conflict won’t escalate
Rubin ‘6  - Director of the Global Research in International Affairs Center
Barry Rubin, is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. "Israel's New Strategy.(politics and policy)." Foreign Affairs 85.4 (July-August 2006): 111. Expanded Academic ASAP.
At the same time, a number of other
whom to make real peace for a long time to come.

Democracy Adv 1NC
Fears of disagreement boiling over in Tunisia are overblown-they’ll be able to work things out
Brown 11
Nathan, “Do Tunisians Agree on More Than they Realize?” August 9th Brown is a professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, he is a Carnegie Scholar, a former fellow at Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. He has served on advisory committees for Human Rights Watch and the committees drafting the Palestinian and Iraqi constitutions. He has also served as a consultant to USAID, and the United Nations Development Program http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=45318&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CarnegieEndowmentForInternationalPeaceGeneralPublicationsAndEvents+%28DC+-+General+Publications+and+Events%29&utm_content=Google+Reader
So what will this heterogeneous group of
be able to agree on a common text.
New outlines on term length and appointment processes for the Constituent Assembly have calmed public fear of a transition failure
Byrne 11
Elleen, Reporter in Tunisia for Financial Times North Africa, “Tunisia Cinches Deal on Road to Democracy” September 13th, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/cf2bfefa-de1d-11e0-9fb7-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1XoCaf2V2
Tunisia’s leading political parties will sign a document
commanding cross-party support, he said.
Tunisia has already made multiple inroads to democratization
Cole 11
Juan, In an interview entitled “Tumultous Middle East, Timid White House” for CFR on April 11th, Cole is a Richard P. Mitchell Collegiate Professor of History, University of Michigan http://www.cfr.org/middle-east/tumultuous-middle-east-timid-white-house/p24633
In terms of significant political change, Tunisia
and are making similar demands now that their country is moving in those directions.
US non-intervention in Tunisia is key to a successful democratic transition there and in the Arab world
Nasser 11
Nicola, Senior Journalist reporting overseas for the Palestine Journal, “United States has a Choice in Tunisia” January 21st http://palestinechronicle.com/view_article_details.php?id=16571
The U.S. risks to lose strategically in Tunisia
. But this sounds more a wishful thinking than a realpolitik expectation.
Tunisia would say no- they perceive Western aid as untrustworthy and delegitimizing
NLG 11
National Lawyers Guild, and independent delegation in conjunction with Haldane and Mulzamer Society of Lawyers (UK, Turkey), from their research stemming from an investigation into the underpinning’s of Tunisia’s western attitudes, “Promises and Challenges, the Tunisian Revolution” The NLG is the oldest and largest public interest/human rights bar organization in the United States. online
A further major question is what role Western governments
prescription our delegation heard repeatedly: "Hands off our revolution!"
No risk of great power conflict over Africa
Barrett ‘5
Robert Barrett, PhD student Centre for Military and Strategic Studies, University of Calgary, June 1, 2005,
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID726162_code327511.pdf?abstractid=726162&mirid=1
Westerners eager to promote democracy must be wary
conflicts in which the intervening nation has very little interest.
Democratic peace theory is wrong- democracies do go to war
Layne 7
Christopher, Professor @ TX A&M, American Empire: A Debate, pg. 94
Wilsonian ideology drives
have gone to war with other democracies.
Assuming democracy limits violence justifies violence against backsliders
Little ‘5
(Adrian Lecturer in Political Theory, University of Melbourne, September, http://auspsa.anu.edu.au/proceedings/publications/Littlepaper.pdf)
The point at which democratic states decide
. It fails to recognise that democracy is an ‘unfinished project’ (Miller 2002).  

1NR Democracy EXT
Fears of political division are all based on rhetorical hype by parties trying to garner support -politicians agree the assembly won’t be slanted in one direction
Alexander 11
Christopher is Davidson College's McGee director of the Dean Rusk International Studies Program, an associate professor of political science, and author of Tunisia: Stability and Reform in the Modern Maghreb. From the Foreign Policy online article “Suspicion and Strategy in Free Tunisia” June 20th http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/06/20/suspicion_and_strategy_in_free_tunisia
Poll numbers have shifted in recent weeks
between the major parties and the large stable of new ones.

Tunisia would say no- they won’t even let Arab countries get involved
Pintor 11
Rafael, reknwned expert on democracy and elections for the International Foundation for Electoral Systems in Tunisia, from the report entitled ““Transition in Tunisia: Analysis of the National Constituent Assembly Elections” Published by the Project for Middle East Democracy, September 7th
In reference to public perception of foreign a
as well as having ballot boxes imported from Spain.

2NC K EXT
The US response to the Arab Spring is stuck in a 9/11 state of mind- our obsession with management of the region’s governments reproduces the Superpower Syndrome, creating fantasies of world control that ensure confrontation with China and Russia and collapse the region into instability
Russia Times 9/14
(“US backing for Arab Spring bearing ‘strange fruit’”, http://rt.com/news/arab-spring-us-backing-509/)

The US has strongly backed the
religious animosities, tears communities apart".
9/11 has enabled a massive military-academic complex, rendering Middle East scholars complicit with the expansion of American empire- criticizing the historical context of knowledge production is crucial to produce new pathways for foreign policy
Bromwich 9/10
(David, Prof. of Literature @ Yale, “What 9/11 Makes Us Forget”, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-bromwich/what-911-makes-us-forget_b_956976.html)

The piety attached to a collective memory
who will last "more than a generation."

Rather than framing the Arab Spring in terms of 9/11, we must re-frame 9/11 in terms of the Arab Spring- while our obsession with control has produced autocratic regimes and foreign policy disaster, those spaces resistant to US control have overthrown their leaders, producing democratic transitions- only this project of critical reframing can produce a successful alternative path for US foreign policy
Freedland 9/6
(Jonah, Writer for The Guardian UK, “Memories are still vivid, but we need to declare the end of the 9/11 era”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/sep/06/declare-end-september-11-era)

But it's the mindset that has to go. In those
and Bin Laden had nothing to do with it.
We have uniqueness for our links- the Arab Spring has proceeded without reference to the signifying power of America- the aff’s injection of democracy assistance reverses American decline in the region and re-introduces the organizing function of 9/11
Testoni ‘11
(Michele, Associate Fellow Research Fellow in International Relations, University of Bologna, “The “Obama doctrine” and the Middle East”, March 15, 2011, http://www.aspeninstitute.it/aspenia-online/article/%E2%80%9Cobama-doctrine%E2%80%9D-and-middle-east)

On the analytical side, the 2011 revolts appear
Washington in the region - not even al Qaeda or other extremist groups.
Ignore their “benign aid” distinctions- combining realpolitik with democracy assistance kills the transition and generates backlash
Sadiki ‘11
(Larbi, Senior Lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University of Exeter, “The mathematics of the Arab Spring”, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/05/2011531132934920499.html)

There are opportunities, but also perils, in Western aid
governments in the "Arab Spring".
The permutation still links- the desire to spread democracy to the Middle East acts as a pressure valve for the anxiety produced by the superpower syndrome, reproducing a 9/11 state of mind
Lifton ‘3
(Robert Jay, Distinguished Professor Emeritus of Psychiatry and Psychology, The City University of New York, Superpower Syndrome, pgs. 178-180)

The world's only superpower is haunted by a fear of weakness.
absolute invulnerability. But the fear of weakness will not go away.
The 1ac’s extension of democracy assistance is particularly symptomatic of this post-9/11 logic- their fear of the unpredictability of the Arab Spring’s democratic energies is grounded in a profound Islamophobia, produced by the trauma of the terrorist attack- strategies of management inevitably fail and enframe the region in terms of US national interest, generating Anti-American backlash
Esposito 9/8
(John, professor of International Affairs and Islamic Studies at Georgetown University, “Post 9/11 and the Need for a New Narrative in West-Muslim World Relations”, http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=47981)

The war against terrorism convinced many
strategic political, economic and military interests.

Combination of democracy and security agendas produces American exceptionalism that ends in the most violent state in world history- be suspicious of their impacts because they ignore structural barriers to attack on the US
Jackson ‘11
(Richard, Reader in International Politics at Aberystwyth University, “The World’s Most Warring Nation”, July 2, 2011, http://www.e-ir.info/?p=10070)

The history of US foreign policy is a violent
ubiquitous in popular and political culture.

Democracy assistance is part of a cycle of interventions in the Middle East that always exacerbate the harms they respond to- the aff ensures massive violence and an escalating scale of interventions
Jackson ‘11
(Richard, Reader in International Politics at Aberystwyth University, “The World’s Most Warring Nation”, July 2, 2011, http://www.e-ir.info/?p=10070)

It is the combination of the US’s strategic
most violent state in the world.

//


////


//

1NC DA T

Democracy assistance is the non-profit transfer of funds, expertise and material to foster democratic groups and institutions already working towards democracy.

Lappin ‘10

Richard Lappin, a PhD candidate at the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven in Belgium, He has participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE and Carter Center, visiting Scholar  at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade under the JoinEU-SEE programme. “What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation”. Central European Journal of International and Security Studies. Vol.4, No.1, May (2010). http://www.cejiss.org/sites/default/files/8.pdf

Democracy assistance can be most accurately defined as

AND

society groups, media groups and political parties.

Two violations:

1.) Aff does not only transfer funds, expertise and/or material, they also transfer information

Vote neg-

1.)   Limits- allowing affs that give assistance outside of a small area explodes possible affs

2.)   Ground- allowing new initiatives or aid outside of this list leads to tons of affs adding extra aid measures to shore up weak solvency, expanding the number of viable affs without predictable neg responses

Competing interpretations is the lens to evaluate topicality because it’s the least arbitrary mechanism

1NC ASPEC

Interpretation- Aff has to specify which aid organization disburses their funds- that’s key to stable neg DA and advantage ground- cross-x doesn’t check because it doesn’t generate counterplan competition- voter for fairness

Revenge K 1nc

The aff’s relation to the Middle East is mediated by 9/11- American foreign policy is grounded in a discursive frame of superpower vulnerability and revenge, coding the chaotic space of the Middle East to separate potential extremists from everyday citizens in order to exact retribution for the Twin Towers

Sadiki 9/11

(Laribi, Senior Lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University of Exeter, “The 9/11 state of mind”, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/09/2011910134022241376.html)

Nothing compares to 9/11 - two

AND

all reasonable and proportionate rules of military engagement.

Democracy assistance specifically is a response to the vulnerability created by 9/11 and locks in the superpower syndrome- the plan acts as a means of managing the chaotic space of the Middle East, re-making it in our image in order to eliminate the uncertainty of the Arab Spring through American democratic universalism

Gershman ‘11

(Carl, president of the National Endowment for Democracy, “Ten Years Later”, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/articles/2011-SeptOct/911-Gershman.html?utm_source=World+Affairs+Newsletter&utm_campaign=bc0dd31858-WAJ_Symposium_Gershman&utm_medium=email)

This historic turning point had the ironic effect

AND

observe the tenth anniversary of that terrible day.

The terminal impact is extinction- 9/11 created a profound American fear of vulnerability that manifests itself in the superpower syndrome, the desire to control history itself- that creates cycles of apocalyptic confrontation that demand maximum use of force- they won’t win defense because the superpower syndrome is based on revenge not rational action

Lifton ‘3

(Robert Jay, Distinguished Professor Emeritus of Psychiatry and Psychology, The City University of New York, Superpower Syndrome, pgs. 8-11)

More than that, 9/11 is

AND

come up against the irredeemable stubbornness of reality.

The Arab Spring has opened the possibility of relations to the Middle East not framed by the post-9/11 framework of vengeance- rather than approaching sweeping change with re-assertions of superpower status, we propose to ride the wave, allowing the democratic revolutions to unmake our foreign policy model and create a new series of relations between the US and the Middle East- only abandoning the aff can allow us to shirk the mantle of the 9/11 foreign policy path

Sadiki 9/11

(Laribi, Senior Lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University of Exeter, “The 9/11 state of mind”, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/09/2011910134022241376.html)

The upshot is that the 9/11

AND

rigid reproduction and memorialisation of 9/11.

1NC EU CP

The European Union should substantially increase its support for civil law enforcement in Yemen.

The EU can provide effective civil law enforcement training—empirically in Iraq

EU at the UN News in 08

EUJUST LEX Mission for Iraq receives world's most prestigious policing award    d.a. 9-4-10

This occurred in San Diego, California,

AND

the Iraqi Police Service and its judicial system".

1NC KORUS

KORUS will pass now

Reuters 9/13

Momentum builds for U.S. action on trade deals, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/13/us-usa-trade-deals-idUSTRE78C7QW20110913?feedType=RSS&feedName=domesticNews

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid on Tuesday said

AND

be passed in tandem with the trade pacts.

Capital is key

Reuters 9/2

Obama's trade legacy in a crucible this fall, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/02/us-usa-obama-trade-idUSTRE7814CZ20110902

In addition to the challenge from organized labor

AND

fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Plan drains capital
 Lennon 9—Senior Fellow @ CSIS

Alexander T.J., Democracy in U.S. Security Strategy, March 2009, http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/090310_lennon_democracy_web.pdf

Initially, momentum seemed to be gaining as

AND

of life, our way of government”19

Failure to ratify SKFTA kills the US-ROK Alliance

Yonhap News 8/30

Severe damage to alliance expected if FTA fails: CRS, http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2011/08/30/52/0301000000AEN20110830000400315F.HTML

A collapse in the United States of a

AND

whom would likely see it as a betrayal."

Alliance key to stop South Korean proliferation

Hughes 2007

Christopher W., PhD University of Sheffield, 1997, Reader/Associate Professor, University of Warwick. “North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons: Implications for the Nuclear Ambitions of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan,” January, Asia Policy No 3, http://www.nbr.org/publications/asia_policy/AP3/AP3Hughes.pdf

South Korea’s history of considering its nuclear options

AND

of U.S. security guarantees.54

Escalates to global nuclear war

Cirincione 2000

Joseph, Director of the Non-Proliferation Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Foreign Policy, “The Asian Nuclear Reaction Chain”, JStor

The blocks would fall quickest and hardest in

AND

combat use of a nuclear weapon since 1945.

1NC USAID DA

US planning to give aid to Pakistan now

Associated Press July 13th 2011

Associated Press. "GM Gilani Concerned over Cuts to USAID."Http://www.dawn.com/2011/07/13/pm-gilani-%E2%80%98concerned%E2%80%99-over-us-aid-cut.html. 13 July 2011. Web. 15th Sept. 2011.

Pakistan’s prime minister expressed concern Wednesday over US

AND

US to reduce its footprint in the country.

Plan forces trade-off with Pakistan

Alec, ’11.

“What is Democracy Assistance? What does it really accomplish? How does it further US national interests?”, April 29, , CMR

The Q&A session focused on the

AND

dozens of consultants over the same time period.

Aid key to stability

Curtis 2007

Curits, Lisa. "U.S Aid to Pakistan Countering Extremeism through Economic Reform."Http://www.heritage.org/research/lecture/us-aid-to-pakistan-countering-extremism-through-education-reform. Heritage Foundation, 8 June 2007. Web. 15 Sept. 2011.

A strong and effective education system in Pakistan

AND

in the human development of average Pakistani citizens.

Extinction

Brookes 7 – senior fellow @ Heritage

Peter, sr. fellow @ the heritage foundation, August 2, pg. http://www.nypost.com/seven/08022007/postopinion/opedcolumnists/baracks_blunder_opedcolumnists_peter_brookes.htm?page=2

The fall of Musharraf's government might well lead

AND

number of targets, including the United States.

1NC INFL T/O

Police training overstretches INFL resources

Wallechinsky 9

David Wallechinsky is a U.S. journalist and a world renowned authorm contributing editor to Parade Mag, and the Huffington Post  Editor of AllGov.com http://www.allgov.com/Agency/Bureau_of_International_Narcotics_and_Law_Enforcement_Affairs

According to the State Department’s Office of Inspector

AND

the bureau as being “an embattled entity.”

Overstretch leads to drug cartels

Johnson 9

David, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, http://www.state.gov/p/inl/rls/rm/119890.htm

Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, to this

AND

, and methamphetamine consumed within the United States.

That causes Latin American instability

Bonner 10

Robert C Bonner, Senior Principal of the Sentinel HS Group. He was Administrator ofthe U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration from 1990 to 1993 and Commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection from 2001 to 2005. “The New Cocaine Cowboys”. Foreign Affairs. New York: Jul/Aug 2010. Vol. 89, Iss. 4; pg. 35. ProQuest.

Mexico is in the throes of a battle

AND

threaten the stability of Central and South America.

Latin American wars go global – even absent escalation, they cause counterbalancing and conflict

Rochin, Professor of Political Science, 94

James, Professor of Political Science at Okanagan University College, Discovering the Americas: the evolution of Canadian foreign policy towards Latin America, pp. 130-131

While there were economic motivations for Canadian policy

AND

as will be discussed in the next chapter.

***1NC Shell***

China highly involved and interested in Yemeni affairs now

Qatar News Agency 9/4

2011, “Yemeni FM Meets Foreign Diplomats for Talks” lexis da: 9/6

Foreign Minister Abu Bakr al-Qirbi met

AND

country and ways to resolve the political crisis.

US-China influence are zero sum, US fears improves trade partnership

Janardhan 11

N. 6/3 (Dr. N. Janardhan is a UAE-based political analyst and author of "Boom Amid Gloom - The Spirit of Possibility in the 21st Century Gulf" (Ithaca Press, 2011).) AlArabiya.net, “News Analysis / N. Janardhan: Yemen and Libya: Mediation mess?” lexis

There could be yet another intricate US agenda

AND

amid the Iraq, Iran and Afghan fiascoes.

Conflict over the control of oil leads to a Sino-US war- escalation likely

Klare 8

Michael T. Klare, 5/1, Nation defense correspondent, is professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College, The Nation, “The New Geopolitics of Energy”, http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080519/klare/print

These and other efforts by Russia and China

AND

Russian soldiers, sparking a much greater crisis.

1NC Terrorism-Yemen

Yemeni state collapse won’t increase the risk of terrorism—already safe havens

Spencer ‘11

JAMES SPENCER is a retired British infantry commander. He is a strategic analyst on political, security, and trade issues of the Middle East and North Africa and a specialist on Yemen, Foreign Affairs, “A False Dawn for Yemen’s Militants,” 6/8/11, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67883/james-spencer/a-false-dawn-for-yemens-militants?page=show, AD 8/5/11

Of course, Western policymakers must consider the

AND

would complicate AQAP's operation rather than enable it.

Other safe havens—Iraq, Maghreb

Riedel ‘11

Bruce Riedel, a former longtime CIA officer, is a senior fellow in the Saban Center at the Brookings Institution. At President Obama’s request, he chaired the strategic review of policy toward Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2009. “Heavy Blow to Al Qaeda” Aug 28, 2011 http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/08/28/al-rahman-s-death-is-serious-blow-to-al-qaeda-but-still-dangerous.html, AD 8/31/11

Al Qaeda’s franchise in Iraq, which was

AND

long had very close ties to Al Qaeda.

Their link is exaggerated—Saleh created the terrorist threat to obtain support

Spencer ‘11

JAMES SPENCER is a retired British infantry commander. He is a strategic analyst on political, security, and trade issues of the Middle East and North Africa and a specialist on Yemen, Foreign Affairs, “A False Dawn for Yemen’s Militants,” 6/8/11, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67883/james-spencer/a-false-dawn-for-yemens-militants?page=show, AD 8/5/11

Throughout Yemen's political crisis, the West's chief

AND

behind U.S. support for Yemen.

The threat is overblown—attacks are misattributed to AQAP, and other groups are mislabeled as al Qaeda cells

Spencer ‘11

JAMES SPENCER is a retired British infantry commander. He is a strategic analyst on political, security, and trade issues of the Middle East and North Africa and a specialist on Yemen, Foreign Affairs, “A False Dawn for Yemen’s Militants,” 6/8/11, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67883/james-spencer/a-false-dawn-for-yemens-militants?page=show, AD 8/5/11

But this catalogue of putative successes masks a

AND

from their footing in Abyan's capital, Zinjibar.)

AQAP doesn’t pose a threat to the US

Spencer ‘11

JAMES SPENCER is a retired British infantry commander. He is a strategic analyst on political, security, and trade issues of the Middle East and North Africa and a specialist on Yemen, Foreign Affairs, “A False Dawn for Yemen’s Militants,” 6/8/11, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67883/james-spencer/a-false-dawn-for-yemens-militants?page=show, AD 8/5/11

Although AQAP describes itself as one organization,

AND

the special operations group's capability will be lost.

Low risk of retaliation– the US would not indiscriminately lash out

Bleek ‘6

Philipp. doctoral candidate in international relations at Georgetown University. Would ‘Deterrence of Negligence’ Reduce the Risk of Catastrophic Terrorism?. August 2006. Online.

But it is not so clear that a

AND

and to ensure that further attacks were prevented.

No risk of terrorism on US soil-their evidence speaks to popular imaginsation-9/11 upped the stakes to every attack has to be large-no al-qaeda in the US-can’t sneak into the US

Schneier ‘10

Bruce, internationally renowned security technologist and author. Described by The Economist as a "security guru," May 5, Schneier on Security, http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2010/05/why_arent_there.html

Why Aren't There More Terrorist Attacks? As

AND

probably going to slip up and get caught.

Hege doesn’t check power wars

Layne 6

Professor of Political Science, Christopher Layne, 2006, The Peace of Illusions: American Grand Strategy from 1940 to Present

A second contention advanced by proponents of American

AND

U.S. military intervention in Eurasia.

U.S. hegemonic decline does not cause conflict or result in a power vacuum – empirically proven.

Fettweis 10--assistant professor of political science @ Tulane

Christopher, Survival, Volume 52, Issue 2, April

One potential explanation for the growth of global

AND

world peace and US military expenditure are unrelated.

Transition will be slow—the US is on a moderate decline which will be peaceful

MacDonald and Parent 11—Profs of Political Science @ Williams and Miami

Paul K. and Joseph M., Graceful Decline?, International Security, Spring 2k11, Volume 35, Number 4, Muse

Most important, the United States is not

AND

expand its increasingly advantageous position through direct confrontation.

No extinction impact.

Britt ‘1

Robert Roy Britt, Senior Space Writer/Space.com. “Survival of the Elitist: Bioterrorism May Spur Space Colonies”. October 30 2001. http://www.space4peace.org/articles/moving.htm

Many scientists argue that there is no need

AND

an asteroid hitting the planet," Croddy said.

Terrorism is not an existential threat – at most it will kill a few hundred people a year – the fear of WMD terrorism is overblown.

Mueller ‘11

John Mueller is Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University. He is the author of Atomic Obsession. “The truth about al Qaeda”. August 5, 2011. CNN’s Global Public Square. http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/05/the-truth-about-al-qaeda/

Outside of war zones, the amount of

AND

the future. No elephants there, either.

No motivation, no access and vaccines check the impact

Clark ‘8 – Emeritus Professor in Immunology at UCLA

William R. Clark, emeritus professor in Immunology at UCLA. Bracing for Armageddon?: The Science and Politics of Bioterrorism in America, 2008, pg. 183

In the end, what may well stop

AND

its ilk may be a non-starter.

1NC Saudi Adv

The U.S. is incapable of effective civil law enforcement training

Serchuk 06

Vance Serchuk Research Fellow at American Enterprise Institute   Cop Out  Why Afghanistan Has No Police  |  The Weekly Standard
Monday, July 17, 2006     d.a. 8-10-10

Unfortunately, the sorry performance of the ANP

AND

dumping them into a vat of boiling water.

The U.S. cannot do effective civil law enforcement training

Serchuk 06

Vance Serchuk Research Fellow at American Enterprise Institute  

Cop Out  Why Afghanistan Has No Police  |  The Weekly Standard
Monday, July 17, 2006     d.a. 8-10-10

The problem here isn't that the American officials involved are ill-intentioned or egomaniacal. On the contrary, one of the most striking things about the civil-military tension over the ANP is its persistence despite successive staff turnover.

Rather, the difficulty lies in the fundamental

AND

Perhaps those Afghans have good reason to riot.

No risk of offense – US training encourages ineffective and belligerent police tactics – this directly contributes to sectarian violence

Kuzmarov 10 – Professor of History @ Tulsa

Jeremy, assistant professor of history at the University of Tulsa, American Police Training and Political Violence: From the Philippines Conquest to the Killing Fields of Afghanistan and Iraq, http://www.japanfocus.org/-Jeremy-Kuzmarov/3319

In spite of hundreds of millions in funding

AND

the training and methods that produced such outcomes.

US police training causes instability – guarantees sectarian violence, militarization of the police and an incapable government – Iraq proves.

-implicated in sectarian violence and torture

-leads to militarization of the police

-give weapons and equipment to insurgents that promote conflict

-prefer our evidence – think tanks dismiss

-leads to democracy collapse, terrorism and corruption

Kuzmarov 10 – Professor of History @ Tulsa

Jeremy, assistant professor of history at the University of Tulsa, American Police Training and Political Violence: From the Philippines Conquest to the Killing Fields of Afghanistan and Iraq, http://www.japanfocus.org/-Jeremy-Kuzmarov/3319

As the U.S. expands the

AND

growth of corruption levels pushing regimes towards kleptocracy.

AQAP’s territory secured- Yemen troops finally took back control of Abyan

Al Jazeera 9/10

“Yemen troops 'reclaim' southern city”, http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/09/2011910151110314688.html

Yemen's army has taken control of the capital

AND

to scare Washington and Riyadh into backing him.

Aff leads to conflict and division among the opposition- turns the terrorism advantage

Zarate and Gordon 11

Juan C. Zarate is a Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism (2005— 2009). David A. Gordon is the Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project. The Washington Quarterly, The Center for Strategic and International Studies, Summer, “The Battle for Reform with Al-Qaeda”

That salvo in the rhetorical battle for reform

AND

by-jihad in the Arab heartland.3

Oil economy is structurally unsustainable- only transitioning to alternative energies now could possibly solve

Drum 8/26 (Kevin, Mother Jones, “Our Oil-Constrained Future”, http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2011/08/our-oil-constrained-future)

The precise effect of oil prices on the

AND

. It doesn't seem very agreeable to me.

Iran won’t try to expand—weakened by the Arab Spring

TISDALL ‘11

[Simon, The Guardian, 5/17/11 “Iran has been isolated by the Arab spring,” http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/17/iran-arab-spring, AD 5/20/11]

The stakes are undoubtedly high. Syria's importance

AND

an honest broker of inter-Arab disputes.

Dozens regional conflicts disprove escalation.

Drum ‘7

Kevin Drum, political bloger. September 9, 2007. “The Choas Hawk...”. The Washington Monthly’s Political Animal Blog. http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2007_09/012029.php

Having admitted, however, that the odds

AND

war for a decade. No regional conflagration.

Superpowers won’t go to war over the Middle East.

Gelb ’10 – President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations

Leslie, President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations. He was a senior official in the U.S. Defense Department from 1967 to 1969 and in the State Department from 1977 to 1979, November/December Foreign Affairs, Proquest

Also reducing the likelihood of conflict today is

AND

they rarely oppose one another in explosive situations.

Fears of impending conflict after economic collapse are empirically disproven.

Naim in ‘10

Moises Naim, Editor in Chief of Foreign Policy Magazine. Foreign Policy. “It Didn't Happen”. January/February 2010. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/01/04/it_didnt_happen?page=full

Just a few months ago, the consensus

AND

predictions about the crisis that have been proven wrong

USAID DA
SKFTA DA
T Democracy Asssistance

1NC Interagency Co-op CP
Text: The Department of State and Department of Defense should engage in an interagency dialogue with the explicit goal of avoiding “group-think” decisions.

1NC EU CP

Text: The European Union should expand its civil military support element to support political contestation throughout Yemen.
The EU must aid the Yemeni transition –US lacks credibility and triggers backlash
Katz ’11 –Prof of government and politics at George Mason
Mark N., “Yemen after Saleh,” European Union Institute for Security Studies, March 2011, www.iss.europa.eu/uploads/media/Yemen_after_Saleh.pdf
While this process of shaping the nature of
AND
as well as the West as a whole.

1NC Geopolitics K
Democracy assistance reduces the Middle East to our geopolitical roadmap for it- management of supply chains, relations, populations, and military position seeks to stand above the world itself, rendering it consumable standing reserve- the plan’s reductive gesture spurs conflicts between the American world picture and everyday life, ensuring escalatory violence
Mitchell ‘5,
(Andrew J., Stanford Univresity, “Heidegger and Terrorism.” Research in Phemonenology)

There can be no security. If being
AND
all governments and forms of leadership become Americanism.

You should prioritize questions of ontology in your decisionmaking- geopolitical sovereignty has always already reduced existence to standing reserve, making politics mere questions of technical strategy and circulation of resources- ensures error replication and extinction
Burke ‘7
(Anthony, Senior Lecturer in Politics and International Relations at UNSW, Sydney, “Ontologies of War: Violence, Existence and Reason”, Theory and Event, 10.2, Muse)

My argument here, whilst normatively sympathetic to
AND
of insecurity and violence? Will our thought?

Alternative text: the judge should vote negative to endorse the New International 

New International solves
Caputo ‘97
(John D., David R. Cook Professor of Philosophy Emeritus at Villanova University, Deconstruction in a Nutshell: A Conversation with Jacques Derrida, pgs. 116-120)
This is not to say that Derrida lacks
AND
in a nutshell, by their "difference."

Geopolitics K 2nc

Framework

Ontology comes first
Marzec ‘1,
(Robert, Teaches Postcolonial Studies @ State U of New York @ Fredonia, An Anatomy of Empire, symploke 9.1-2 (2001) 165-168, muse)

Retrieving crucial foundational shifts..."most difficult but not impossible."

AT Permutation

War on terror is rooted in a logic of revenge that escalates to extinction
Rosenberg 9/11
(Paul, Senior Editor of Random Lengths News, “9/11's self-inflicted wounds are the worst”, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/09/2011910115157366771.html)

In short, it's indisputable...thinking of others as well.

Ignore their “benign aid” distinctions- combining anti-extremism with democracy assistance kills the transition and generates backlash
Sadiki ‘11
(Larbi, Senior Lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University of Exeter, “The mathematics of the Arab Spring”, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/05/2011531132934920499.html)

There are opportunities...in the "Arab Spring".

Their args create a narrow consensus over projects of security- that creates hegemonic systems of thought and makes extinction inevitable
Burke ‘7
(Anthony, Associate Prof. of Politics and International Relations @ U of New South Wales, Beyond Security, Ethics and Violence: War Against the Other, pgs. 3-4)

It is clear that traditionally ...wards off critique.

Contingency warfighting makes extinction inevitable
Dillon and Reid ‘9, (Michael, Prof. of IR @ Lancaster University, Julian, Lecturer in IR @ King’s College London, The Liberal Way of War: Killing to make life live, pgs. 30-33)

One way of expressing ...infinity of securitization and fear.

1nc spending da

-The U.S. AAA Credit rating has been stabilized now because of perceptions that the U.S. is committed to deficit reduction

Bernard 9-08-11

Stephen analyst for DOW JONES NEWSWIRES   DBRS Initiates Rating On US Government At AAA, Stable Outlook

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110908-714692.html

DBRS has initiated coverage of the U.S. government …the "renewed commitment to reducing the deficit

-Ratings Agencies are carefully monitoring federal spending to determine if the U.S. is serious about deficit reduction. Perceptions of a commitment to spending restraint are key to preserve credit ratings

Cowan 9-7-11

Richard, financial analyst Reuters, Q+A-What's ahead for US Congress deficit-cutting panel?  http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/07/usa-debt-idUSN1E7850TG20110907

When a new "super committee" in Congress begins …on the country's fiscal health.

-New Credit Downgrades will happen if there is new unexpected federal spending

Kelley 11

Karen, Senior Managing Director of Invesco 8-11-11, Web 9-13-11 https://www.invesco.ca/publicPortal/ShowDoc?nodePath=/BEA%20Repository/common/document/pdf/Deficits_Debt_Ceiling.pdf

The Budget Control Act of 2011 has been signed …what is currently expected.

-Further Credit downgrades will crush the economy

Gingery 9-1-11

Phil, Reprentative from Georgia and MD  http://economiccrisis.us/2011/09/real-economic-recovery-demands-balanced-budget-amendment/

For the first time in our country’s history…by politicians in the future.

-Extinction

Green and Schrage in ‘9

Michael J Green, Senior Advisor and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Associate Professor at Georgetown University. Steven P Schrage, the CSIS Scholl Chair in International Business and a former senior official with the US Trade Representative's Office, State Department and Ways & Means Committee. Asia Times. March 26 2009. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economy/KC26Dk01.html

 However, the Great Depression taught us …against the international system.

Politics1nc

-Passage of the TAA in the Senate sets the stage for the House—passage there is key to the trade deals

Baker 9/27

LeRoy, US Senate Tries To Push Pending FTA Approval, http://www.tax-news.com/news/US_Senate_Tries_To_Push_Pending_FTA_Approval____51633.html

While the Republican-led House of Representatives had …deliver a TAA renewal in the House of Representatives.

-Plan drains capital
 Lennon 9—Senior Fellow @ CSIS

Alexander T.J., Democracy in U.S. Security Strategy, March 2009, http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/090310_lennon_democracy_web.pdf

Initially, momentum seemed to be gaining as a …our way of government”19

-Capital is key

Reuters 9/2

Obama's trade legacy in a crucible this fall, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/02/us-usa-obama-trade-idUSTRE7814CZ20110902

In addition to the challenge from organized labor…Peterson Institute for International Economics.

-Failure to ratify SKFTA kills the US-ROK Alliance

Yonhap News 8/30

Severe damage to alliance expected if FTA fails: CRS, http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2011/08/30/52/0301000000AEN20110830000400315F.HTML

A collapse in the United States of a free trade …whom would likely see it as a betrayal."

-US-South Korean alliance is key to regional stability, checking US-China war, and preserving US hegemony in Asia

Kim, Professor @ Myongiji, 3
 Seung-Hwan Kim, Int’l Affairs Prof @ Myongji, 2003, “Anti-Americanism in Korea,” Wash. Q.,

Even worse, Korean attitudes toward the United States …growth and development were jeopardized.

-Extinction

Hamel-Green, Victory University Executive Dean,  & Hayes, Nautilus Institute Executive Director, 10

[Peter & Michael, 1-5-10, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia”, 1-5-10, , accessed 7-1-11]

The consequences of failing to address …how air-transported materials could similarly be intercepted.

-And, extinction

Johnson 1

Chalmers, The Nation, May 14, Wilson OmniFile: Full Text Select

China is another matter. No sane figure in the Pentagon …China's borders have virtually no deterrent effect.

-Failure of passage leads to protectionism

Cooper 10

William, Coordinator Specialist in International Trade and Finance @ CRS, The Proposed U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA): Provisions and Implications, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL34330.pdf

Since the early 2000s, U.S. use of FTAs in …to strengthen economic ties with major trading partners.

-Protectionism causes economic collapse, terrorism, and great power wars- it turns the case because protectionism creates a pre-text for Israel to attack Iran

Panzer in ‘8

Micheal Panzner, faculty at the New York Institute of Finance, 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets who has worked in New York and London for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and JPMorgan Chase. Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse, Revised and Updated Edition, p. 136-138.

Continuing calls for curbs on the flow of finance …Western societies as the beginnings of a new world war.  

Threaten CP 1nc

Text - The United States federal government should threaten to terminate military aid to Bahrain unless it agrees to a prompt release of jailed opposition leaders and a genuinely inclusive dialogue with them and the groups they represent. The United States federal government should ensure that Bahraini Shia companies and workers gain a large share of the contracts for planned base expansion in Bahrain.

-The CP solves the aff and restores U.S. credibility.

Hilterman 9/7

Joost R. Hiltermann is Deputy Program Director for Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group. “Pushing for Reform in Bahrain”. Foreign Affairs. September 7, 2011. http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/iran-gulf/bahrain/hiltermann-pushing-for-reform-in-bahrain.aspx

How Washington should now proceed is …its supporters, and the opposition to show the way.

5th fleet 1nc

-The U.S. does not need the fifth fleet to deal with threats in the Straits of Hormuz or to deter Iran – large naval presence makes the U.S. vulnerable and increases tensions with Iran – the main threats are asymmetrical.

Gresh ‘10

Geoffrey F Gresh, research fellow and doctoral candidate at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. “Traversing the Persian Gauntlet: U.S. Naval Projection and the Strait of Hormuz”. The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs. Medford: Winter 2010. Vol. 34, Iss. 1; pg. 41. ProQuest.

The United States has long employed …the carrier group or instill fear.5

-Loss of the fifth fleet in Bahrain won’t threaten Gulf security – U.S. presence in other Arab countries, as well has missile defense deter Iran – Iran and Al-Qaeda pose no threat to closing the Strait of Hormuz – reducing the naval presence would boost cooperation on terror, WMD transport, and piracy, while solving U.S. overstretch.

Gresh ‘10

Geoffrey F Gresh, research fellow and doctoral candidate at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. “Traversing the Persian Gauntlet: U.S. Naval Projection and the Strait of Hormuz”. The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs. Medford: Winter 2010. Vol. 34, Iss. 1; pg. 41. ProQuest.

However, the United States is …pressing situations at home and abroad.

- Iran will not act aggressively or initiate military conflict against external challengers and multiple factors constrain its regional influence

    Iran understands its weakness and has shown the Shi'ite principles of caution and passivity

    Unwilling to take military action against external challenges, it’s a paper tiger

    Can only threaten terrorism and has no followed through

    Weakening of Iran-Syria axis and rift between Khamenei and Ahmadinejad constrain influence

Savyon ’11 – director of the Iranian Media Project @ Middle East Media Research Institute

A, Savyon, director of the Iranian Media Project @ Middle East Media Research Institute. 7/4/2011. “Iran's Defeat in the Bahrain Crisis: A Seminal Event in the Sunni-Shi'ite Conflict”. http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5424.htm#_ednref6

Despite its image as a …Iranian regime in clearly reduced circumstances.

-No risk of Iranian aggression or miscalc over Bahrain – they have remained militarily passive, not launching even token military gestures or asymmetric tactics.

Savyon ’11 – director of the Iranian Media Project @ Middle East Media Research Institute

A, Savyon, director of the Iranian Media Project @ Middle East Media Research Institute. 7/4/2011. “Iran's Defeat in the Bahrain Crisis: A Seminal Event in the Sunni-Shi'ite Conflict”. http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5424.htm#_ednref6

Despite Bahrain's historic, ethnic…none of these calls were implemented.

-U.S. forward presence in the Gulf is unnecessary to security the oil supply and only increases the risk of radicalization and attacks.

- military threats in the Gulf are exaggerated

- presence does not increase the U.S. ability to respond to attacks

- Strategic reserves solve the impact

Gholz and Press ‘8

Eugene Gholz, associate professor of public affairs, Lyndon B. Johnson school of Public Affairs @ the University of Texas, and Daryl G. Press, associate professor of Government @ Darmouth College. “Oil and U.S. National Security in the Persian Gulf: An “Over-the-Horizon” Strategy”

http://www.comw.org/qdr/fulltext/08Gholz&Press.pdf

Oil is at the root of US national interests …or political coordination on a day-to-day basis.

-The fleet enables our regional allies to act recklessly in the region – turns your regional war args

Jones 11—Assistant professor of history at Rutgers University

(Toby, “Time to Disband the Bahrain-Based U.S. Fifth Fleet” [http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/06/time-to-disband-the-bahrain-based-us-fifth-fleet/240243/2/?single_page=true]/June 10)

There are a number of reasons why …has enabled their dangerous behavior as well.

-No impact- Superpowers don’t get drawn in to the Middle East, especially over oil.

Gelb ’10 – President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations

Leslie, President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations. He was a senior official in the U.S. Defense Department from 1967 to 1969 and in the State Department from 1977 to 1979, November/December Foreign Affairs, Proquest

Also reducing the likelihood of …one another in explosive situations.

-Budget cuts are coming, the Navy will be the most easily cut.

Steele 9/17

Jeanette Steele. “At Fleet Week, time of change for Navy”. San Diego Union Tribune. September 17, 2011. http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2011/sep/17/fleet-week-time-change-navy/

Navy and Marine Corps officials don’t know …will be most easily trimmed.

-Losing Bahrain basing rights facilitates an evolution towards a more flexible and advanced force – leads to development sea-basing, rotational deployment, and enhanced lift capability.

Koplovsky ‘6 – Masters of International Affairs and National Security and Strategic Studies

Michael Koplovsky, Chargé d’Affaires, a.i. at the U.S. Embassy Lusaka, is a career Foreign Service officer, aster of International Affairs from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and a Master of Arts in National Security and Strategic Studies from the U.S. Naval War College.. “Precipitating the Inevitable: The Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain”. Joint Military Operations Department Naval War College. http://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=15569

What if the U.S. military …in countries throughout the region.

-Transitioning to a combination of bases in other Gulf states, credible lift capacity, and sea-basing will allow the U.S. to deter Iran, reassure allies, and ensure free passage through the Strait of Hormuz – avoids vulnerability of permanent base, erosion of U.S. support and credibility, and increasing support for terrorism.

Koplovsky ‘6 – Masters of International Affairs and National Security and Strategic Studies

Michael Koplovsky, Chargé d’Affaires, a.i. at the U.S. Embassy Lusaka, is a career Foreign Service officer, aster of International Affairs from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and a Master of Arts in National Security and Strategic Studies from the U.S. Naval War College.. “Precipitating the Inevitable: The Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain”. Joint Military Operations Department Naval War College. http://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=15569

conclusion Despite adamant arguments outlining …is another important concern.

-Transformation will allow the U.S. to continue to project force in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz – new concepts provide the same time, space, and force factors of basing in Bahrain.

Koplovsky ‘6 – Masters of International Affairs and National Security and Strategic Studies

Michael Koplovsky, Chargé d’Affaires, a.i. at the U.S. Embassy Lusaka, is a career Foreign Service officer, aster of International Affairs from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and a Master of Arts in National Security and Strategic Studies from the U.S. Naval War College.. “Precipitating the Inevitable: The Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain”. Joint Military Operations Department Naval War College. http://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=15569

By establishing a network of …the right time to succeed.

-Permanent basing is vulnerable to enemy attacks and area-denial. A shift to sea-basing would deter aggressors and reassure allies.

Koplovsky ‘6 – Masters of International Affairs and National Security and Strategic Studies

Michael Koplovsky, Chargé d’Affaires, a.i. at the U.S. Embassy Lusaka, is a career Foreign Service officer, aster of International Affairs from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and a Master of Arts in National Security and Strategic Studies from the U.S. Naval War College.. “Precipitating the Inevitable: The Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain”. Joint Military Operations Department Naval War College. http://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=15569

Recognizing the vulnerability of permanent …for intra-theater transport.30

-No Asian resource wars – great powers will negotiate, not fight

Fettweis ‘11 – Professor of Political Science @ Tulane

Christopher, Professor of Political Science @ Tulane, Dangerous Times?: The International Politics of Great Power Peace, pg. 116

The emergence of an era of …been the case.

1nc v new advantage

-Even if Iran gains influence, the rest of the Middle East still distrusts them

Laipson ‘11

Ellen Laipson, president and CEO of the Stimson Center, “The Arab Spring’s Impact on U.S.-Iran Rivalry,” 5/19/2011, http://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2011/may/19/arab-spring%E2%80%99s-impact-us-iran-rivalry

Egypt and Iran have been …Sunni Arab states are not likely.

-No risk of Saudi-Iran war

Spinner, 3-15
 Jack Spinner, Christian Science Monitor Correspondent,3-15-2011, “Why Bahrain is unlikely to turn into an Iran-Saudi battleground,”

But Iran will not go …support for Bahrain's monarchy.”

-Iran won’t go to war with the Saudis- it undermines their security calculations

Barzegar, 2011
  Kayhan Barzegar, 4-20-2011,  Faculty Member, Department of International Relations, Science and Research University, Tehran, Iran, Former Associate, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program, 2010–2011; Former Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/international Security Program, 2007–2010,  "Iran's Interests and Values and the 'Arab Spring'"

Iran will not initiate …presence in the Persian Gulf.

-Regional actors protect the gulf- no oil shock

Jones, 11
 (Prof-History-Rutgers, 6/10,

Aside from enabling brutal …recycled through the U.S. economy.

-No impact to oil shocks.

Victor ‘7

David Victor, David G. Victor is a professor of law at Stanford Law School and the director of the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development, November 12, 2007, What Resource Wars?, http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=16020

RISING ENERGY prices and mounting …but a dearth in governance.

-High investments due to oil prices will have little effect on transition to renewables – oil price uncertainty, market externalities, and costs of transmission all inhibit growth of renewables.

Huntington and Jojarth ’10 – Most Qualified Evidence

Hillard Huntington, Executive Director of Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum, a Senior Fellow and a past-President of the United States Association for Energy Economics and a member of the National Petroleum Council. He was also Vice-President for Publications for the International Association for Energy Economics and a member of the American Statistical Association's Committee on Energy Data., and Christine Jojarth, Ph.D., leads the interdisciplinary Global Oil Governance Performance research project at Stanford’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law. “Financing the Future: Investments in Alternative Sources of Energy” in Global energy governance: the new rules of the game. P. 165-168. Brookings Institution Press. 2010.

These advances in renewable technologies …good generation sites (offshore wind, solar arrays in deserts).

-Warming doesn’t lead to extinction

Barrett 6 – Professor of International Policy @ Johns Hopkins

Scott, Professor and Director of International Policy, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, 2006, “CATASTROPHE: The Problem of Averting Global Catastrophe,” Chicago Journal of International Law, Lexis

Less dramatic changes are …directly destroy all humanity." 76

1nc solvency

-US fence-straddling has killed its credibility with both the regime and the protestors

Dorsey ‘11

James M. Dorsey, formerly of The Wall Street Journal, is a senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, “US fence straddling fuels anti-Americanism in Syria and Bahrain”28 July 2011 al-Arabiya News http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/07/28/159828.html, AD 8/26/11

The US effort in Bahrain to…front of its embassy in Manama.

-The Bahraini government views democracy assistance as a Western tool to undermine Sunni rule

Gengler ’11 – former Fulbright fellow in Bahrain

Justin, PhD candidate at U of Michigan, Foreign Policy, “The other side of radicalization in Bahrain,” 7/15/11, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/07/15/the_other_side_of_radicalization_in_bahrain, AD 7/18/11

Around the same time…protest by the U.S. embassy.

-America missed its window of opportunity for effective change

Jones 11—Assistant professor of history at Rutgers University

(Toby, “Time to Disband the Bahrain-Based U.S. Fifth Fleet” [http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/06/time-to-disband-the-bahrain-based-us-fifth-fleet/240243/2/?single_page=true]/June 10)

Whatever opening there was …for perennial violence.

-Morocco’s going to get the aid now because of recent changes

McInerney, 11 - is Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy (Stephen, "The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012 DEMOCRACY, GOVERNANCE, AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST”, July,)

Now, with Morocco’s king …countries of the moment.

-But, Morocco’s aid is subject to cuts- it’s most likely to get the axe

McInerney, 11 - is Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy (Stephen, "The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012 DEMOCRACY, GOVERNANCE, AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST”, July,)

Of the seven Arab countries …additional cuts in FY12.

-And, aid to Morocco from the regional response fund leads to holding the king accountable- they’ll say yes and use the aid best

McInerney, 11 - is Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy (Stephen, "The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012 DEMOCRACY, GOVERNANCE, AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST”, July,)

Morocco risks being overlooked, …response fund if possible.

-Moroccan instability threatens war with Europe, terrorism, and the collapse of the Strait of Gibraltar sea lane

McDonald, 11

theTrumpet.com - Understand Your World, Brad Macdonald Columnist.Europe Must Reclaim the Mediterranean, February 10, 2011 | From theTrumpet.com, http://www.thetrumpet.com/print.php?q=7963.6580.0.0

For Europe, preventing radical …to a major strategic threat!

-Collapse of the seal lane would spike the price of oil and crash the world economy

Institute for the analysis of global security, 4

http://www.iags.org/oiltransport.html

Getting oil from the well …our ability to deal with them.

---Democracy K

The affirmative proffers democracy assistance as an “outside in” process in which they author a plan to provide assistance for those in another country. This outside in democracy assistance model embraces a “pedagogy of power” that converts the recipients into “objects” and denies them authorship of the process

Christopher Hobson 2009 The limits of liberal-democracy promotion, alternatives, 34, October, 393-7

Democracy promoters now… Interests in recipient countries.

Only taking an ethical stance against the objectification of the other can prevent inevitable extinction

Jennifer, Simons 2000, Only a question of time: Science, Ethics and Weapon of Mass Destruction

“otherness” is seen as object or objects…Speaking subject rather than object for study.  

The alternative is to reject the politics of objectification --- the alternative would endorse genuine local authorship before writing the plan text.

Assistance must be replaced with collaborative authorship

Noel McGinn 2004, Journal of international cooperation in education, Vol. 7 no.1 2004,

The term “assistance”…and policy alternatives.

---T Substantial Increase

'Substantial' means that the increase must be definite --- potential future increases are not topical

Words and Phrases 64 (40W&P 759)

Increase means to increase the amount over the status quo aid

Rogers 5

Judge – New York, et al., Petitioners v. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Respondent, NSR Manufacturers Roundtable, et al., Intervenors, 2005 U.S. App. LEXIS 12378, **; 60 ERC (BNA) 1791, 6/24, Lexis

the ordinary meaning of "increases" requires the baseline to be calculated from a period immediately preceding the change

Democracy assistance is non-profit transfer of funds, expertise, and material to foster democratic groups, initiatives, and institutions

Lappin ‘10

Richard Lappin, a PhD candidate at the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven in Belgium, He has participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE and Carter Center, visiting Scholar  at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade under the JoinEU-SEE programme. “What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation”. Central European Journal of International and Security Studies. Vol.4, No.1, May (2010). http://www.cejiss.org/sites/default/files/8.pdf

Democracy assistance can be most… media groups and political parties.

For means for the topic country’s benefit

Legg ‘2

Michael Legg, B.Com (Hons) (UNSW '93), M.Com (Hons) and LLB (UNSW '96), LLM (UC-Berkeley '01). Solicitor of the Supreme Court of New South Wales, Australia. “Indigenous Australians and International Law: Racial Discrimination, Genocide and Reparations”. Berkeley Journal of International Law. 2002. Lexis.

interpreted the word "for" in section 51(xxvi) as meaning "for the benefit of."

Violation- the aff doesn’t increase democracy assistance on face, it just removes conditions for existing assistance- even if that leads to greater access, evaluate the plan in a vacuum to determine topicality or it doesn’t solve our offense

Vote Neg-

1.) Limits- allowing removal of barriers to generate more aid lets any aff that results in an increase in assistance into the topic- those affs are outside the increase DA literature base, which makes them uniquely unpredictable- predictability is vital to in-depth clash

2.) Ground- aff gets to claim advantages off the effectually topical portions of their plan- Baylor claims an advantage based on removal of conditions on existing aid- they can use that to outweigh and turn our core disads in unpredictable ways, which undermines our side advantages- even the block can’t overcome a bunch of advantages we couldn’t predict

3.) Bidirectional- the aff could invert the topic and defend removal of conditions decreases assistance- that makes infinite prep too dominant, because we might not have that aff part of the topic ready, but we are prepared for the neg side- proves it undercuts in-depth clash

---T Should

Should means the aff has to defend the USfg executing the resolution

AskDefine.com ‘11

AskDefine, Online dictionary, should.askdefine.com

And, the United States federal government is the central government in Washington

WEST'S LEGAL THESAURUS/DICTIONARY, 1985

p. 744. (MHHAR7000)

B.) Violation- the aff is not defending the process involved in defending central government action

C.) Vote neg

1.) Key to test inherency- plan hasn’t been done for a reason- investigating political motives behind certain exclusions is critical to explain why the status quo doesn’t solve the aff- it’s the aff’s burden of proof- if they don’t meet it vote neg on presumption

2.) Best literature- law reviews and court decisions generally describe the processes for enacting policy- our solvency advocates proves qualified authors write most often about alterations to existing processes, not stupid impact claims

3.) Arbitrarily excludes best DA’s- no resolutional basis for their interpretation, just eliminates neg flex- that comes first because it undercuts clash

In-depth clash outweighs their K impacts- absent ability to clash they turn debate into an echo-chamber

Talisse 5—Professor of Philosophy @Vandy

Robert, Philosophy & Social Criticism, Deliberativist responses to activist challenges, 31(4) p. 429-431

The activist implicitly holds… model of political engagement.

---CP #1

-Text-The United States federal government should not utilize security conditions to restrict its democracy assistance for Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia or Yemen, but should cap its democracy assistance at FY2011 levels.

-Aff should have to defend an increase- it’s the core of the topic- and counterplans only have to be textually competitive when the plan is not on-face topical, it’s the only recourse to generate competition on the topical part of the plan when the explicit action is effects topical- that makes any permutation functional severance or the aff untopical

---CP #2

Text: The United States federal government should not utilize security conditions to restrict its democracy assistance to Yemen, Egypt, Syria, Libya and Tunisia. The United States federal government should condition all democracy assistance to Bahrain on the following explicit security benchmarks:
-release of prisoners detained in connection with pro-democracy and anti-government protests unless there is evidence beyond a reasonable doubt they are responsible for a criminal offense;
 -elimination of state use of torture on anti-government protestors.

The President of the United States federal government should issue a statement that the United States has not always abided by the same standards, but will seek to do so.

Pressuring Bahrain is critical to eliminating double standards in US policy that just serve to suit US interests

ICG ‘11

International Crisis Group, independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation “popular protest in north africa and the middle east (viii): Bahrain’s rocky road to reform”, July 28, 2011

But Washington’s position was… but also by interna- tional human rights organisations

Refusal to stand against torture rips apart the social fabric of society- all those in the position to act should act against state-sponsored torture

Chanbonpin ‘11

Kim D. Chanbonpin, Assistant Professor of Law, The John Marshall Law School, Northwestern Journal of Law and Social Policy, “We Don't Want Dollars, Just Change":Narrative Counter-Terrorism Strategy, an Inclusive Model for Social Healing, and the Truth About Torture Commission,” Winter 2011 Edition, http://www.law.northwestern.edu/journals/njlsp/v6/n1/1/index.html

Torture by government (even on non-citizens)… publicly repair those social harms.

2nc cards for cp #2

Throwing peaceful protestors in jail causes dialogue between the government and opposition to collapse

ICG ‘11

International Crisis Group, independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation “popular protest in north africa and the middle east (viii): Bahrain’s rocky road to reform”, July 28, 2011

Bahrain is a longstanding partner, and… participate to forge a just future for all Bahrainis.154

Successful dialogue is critical to prevent armed opposition that will just collapse into continuous retributive war

ICG ‘11

International Crisis Group, independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation “popular protest in north africa and the middle east (viii): Bahrain’s rocky road to reform”, July 28, 2011

That said, there are reports… not with heavy weapons.122

Challenging vengeful violence is critical to avoid a cycle of violence that only escalates

Minow ‘98

(Martha, Dean of Harvard Law School, Between Vengeance and Forgiveness, pgs. 10-11)

The danger is that precisely… for perceived past harms.

---Case

-Your search for the ontological self is fruitless – we all define ourselves through our unique circumstances – claiming an ontological self to search for allows cooption, leading to a new hitler within transnational capitalism.

P Graham 2000, Heidegger’s hippies: a dissenting voice on the “problem of the subject” in cyberspace,

History is, in fact, the simple…ontology are the least of all worries.

-Biopower generates space of freedom—Their top down model ignores public participation, redefinition, and resistance

Edward Ross Dickinson 2004, Central European History, v37 n1 p 43-44

The technocrats aren’t driving…simple authoritarian government.

-Biopower checks extinction. Abanonding planetary management would be suicidal

Nick Dyer-witheford 2004, Species-being Resurgent, Constellations, 11:4 pg 489-490

Being a species with high technology…and the struggles against it.

-Long-term planning is necessary to solve global crises & works

Fuyuki Kurasawa 2004, Cautionary Tales: The global culture of prevention and the work of foresight, Constellations 11:4 pg 468-9

Most of the serious perils…among many others.

-Turn—maximizing all lives is the only way to affirm equal and unconditional human dignity

David Cumminskey 1996, Kantian Consequencialism, pg 145-146 (great book on questia)

By emphasizing solely the one who…one may have to sacrifice some to save many.

-Deciding that other people’s lives are not worth living enslaves the world

Jerzy Szacki 1996, Liberalism After Communism, 197

The task of politics…the name of some one conception.

Corruption leads to stability- history proves plan’s change causes conflict

PHILIPPE LE BILLON* 03

Liu Institute for Global Issues, University of British Columbia Journal of International Development J. Int. Dev. 15, 413–426 (2003) .

There is now a broad... corruption is pervasive.

US reforms lead to conflict

PHILIPPE LE BILLON* 03

Liu Institute for Global Issues, University of British Columbia Journal of International Development J. Int. Dev. 15, 413–426 (2003) .

Ironically, reform programmes... creating or exacerbating grievances.

Their evidence is biased and empirically wrong- corruption key to solve conflict

PHILIPPE LE BILLON* 03

Liu Institute for Global Issues, University of British Columbia Journal of International Development J. Int. Dev. 15, 413–426 (2003) .

Donors and analysts have elevate... context of relative disorder.

Corruption key to stability- norms of reciprocity

PHILIPPE LE BILLON* 03

Liu Institute for Global Issues, University of British Columbia Journal of International Development J. Int. Dev. 15, 413–426 (2003) .

Although illegal by international... circulated through radio trottoir.

Corruption key to stability- distribution of gains

PHILIPPE LE BILLON* 03

Liu Institute for Global Issues, University of British Columbia Journal of International Development J. Int. Dev. 15, 413–426 (2003) .

The degree of conflictuality associate... stable—if not just—political order.

Moderation K 1NC
The rhetoric of “moderate Muslims” conflates Al Qaeda with orthodox Muslims, producing an inherently violent image of Islam- that institutionalizes Islamophobia
Khalid ‘7
(Asma, pursuing her master's degree in Middle Eastern/Islamic studies at the University of Cambridge, April 23, 2007, http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0423/p09s01-coop.html?s=hns)

Last month, three Muslim men were arrested
AND
to counter Islam's violent reputation with factual scholarship.
Islamophobia leads to extinction- produces patterns of institutionalized hatred that generate confirmation bias and create racial impetus for warfare
Munjid ‘11
(3/27, Achmad, president of the Nahdlatul Ulama community in North America, “Overcoming Islamophobia in the United States,” http://68.233.253.124/xwiki/wiki/opencaselist/view/Cal+Berkeley/Cal+HoPr+%28Hodgman-Pramanik%29+Aff)

Remember, as institutionalized hatred, Islamophobia has
AND
, all “others” become the enemy.
The alternative is to vote negative to reject the aff’s framing of
We must use the debate community to create an alternative pedagogical engagement with the Arab world- voting negative acts to constitute communities of interpretation that organize themselves around compassion rather than instrumental expertism- the alternative is error replication and conflict
Said ‘3
(Edward, Prof. of Comparative Literature and English @ Columbia, Orientalism, “Preface (2003)”, pgs. xiv-xxiii)

I should say again that I have no
AND
long and often interrupted road to human freedom.

1NR Moderates K
Wrong starting point- framing critique in terms of policy relevance collapses the public sphere and ensures colonization by elites- only criticism that focuses on affect and the power relations it produces can effectively de-mobilize American exceptionalism
Biswas ‘7
Shampa, Politics @ Whitman “Empire and Global Public Intellectuals: Reading Edward Said as an International Relations Theorist” Millennium 36 (1) p. 117-125
The recent resuscitation of the project of Empire
AND
fundamental and important senses of the vocation.21

Islamic takeover theories are Orientalist and rooted in American objectification of target countries- removes their agency and produces error replication
Pogodda ‘11
(Sandra, Research Fellow in the School of International Relations at the University of St Andrew, “Obama, the EU and the Middle East“, L’Europe en formation no.360 Summer 2011)

Rather than concerns over the domestic legitimacy of
AND
military's upper echelon may have accelerated Mubarak's resignation.
The aff’s democracy assistance is a mechanism for “moderating Muslims”- this strategy is grounded in the assumption that Islam is inherently violent and the antidote is Western cultural institutions- further, their discourse conflates religious and political moderation, producing a framework for engagement that assumes pro-Western actors are moderate- that’s another link and ensures policy failure
Ramadan ‘10
(Tariq, Prof. of Islamic Studies @ the Faculty of Theology, Oxford, “Good Muslim, Bad Muslim”, Middle East Online, First Published: 2010-03-17, http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=37897)

The dust from the collapse of the twin
AND
forward and place their political positions in context.

Democracy assistance is paternalistic
Hobson ‘9
(Christopher, Department of International Politics at Aberystwyth University, “The Limits of Liberal-Democracy Promotion,” Alternatives: Global, Local, Political, 34, October, p. 393-7)

Democracy promoters now tend to work  with a
AND
than those still  seeking to make this transition.

Simons ‘00
Jennifer, Charles University & Academy of Sciences Prague, Czech Republic  Only A Question of Time: Science, Ethics and Weapons of Mass Destruction http://www.nuclearfiles.org/menu/key-issues/ethics/issues/scientific/simons_only-question-time.htm 

What has been lost is the idea of
AND
come out of the mine is the miner.  

You should frame your decision in terms of ethics- a collaborative ethical framework gives agency to target countries and allows them to shape the process- key to prevent tyranny produced by objectification
Crocker & Schwenke 05
(David Crocker Senior Research Scholar, Institute for Philosophy and Public Policy School of Public Policy University of Maryland and Chloe Schwenke is the senior consultant in international development ethics with the Inter-American Development Bank and adjunct professor at the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland   THE RELEVANCE OF DEVELOPMENT ETHICS FOR USAID
http://www.developmentvalues.net/files/Publications/development%20ethics%20and%20usaid.pdf)

An increasingly important disagreement that concerns the resolution
AND
Chicago, Illinois, among other places.32

1NC Diplomacy
And, Israel-Palestine issue shapes relations and view of the US role in Arab Spring- a veto absolutely crushes any hope of US involvement or credibility
Lakshamanan and Walcott 9/23
Indira A.R. Lakshmanan and John Walcott, Bloomberg Businessweek, September 23, 2011, “U.S. Risks Arab Rift, Violence Over Palestinians’ UN Bid,” http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-09-23/u-s-risks-arab-rift-violence-over-palestinians-un-bid.html
Shibley Telhami, a University of Maryland professor
AND
loom larger than many in the administration think.”
And, the veto undermines all our regional influence and means everyone says no
Bakir 9/23
Ali Huseyin Bakir, USAK Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, 23 September 2011, “Palestinian Statehood Deepens the Saudi-U.S. Split,” http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/123954/palestinian-statehood-deepens-the-saudi-u-s-split.html
It is expected that Washington will face public
AND
for Washington and its interests in the Arab region
Organizations reject the stigma that accompanies Western aid
Hawthorne ‘04
Amy, associate in the Democracy and Rule of Law Project. She is a specialist on Middle East politics and democracy promotion and editor of the Carnegie Endowment's Arab Reform Bulletin, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “Middle Eastern Democracy: Is Civil Society the Answer?,” March 2004, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2004/03/01/middle-eastern-democracy-is-civil-society-answer/1l5, AD 7/14/11
Effective civil society assistance requires a sense of
AND
recipients of U.S. funding.37

Signal of weakness inevitable
Bar 11director of studies at the Institute for Policy and Strategy in Herzliya, Israel
Shmuel, America’s Fading Middle East Influence, 4/1/11, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/73161
The policies of the United States under the
AND
for these regimes therefore has been dramatically degraded.
Hegemony fails in the Middle East
Hadar 11—research fellow @ CATO
Leon, Saving U.S. Mideast Policy, 7/1/11, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/saving-us-policy-the-mideast-5556
You don't have to be a strategic analyst
AND
interest in stabilizing Afghanistan and containing the rivalries.
No war – economics
Maisaia ‘8 – USAFA Defense Fellow
Vakhtang, PhD USAFA Defense Fellow, Military Expert, A War With Russia: Real Concern or Fabricated?, 3/3/8. Online

The Russian economy is in deep recession due
AND
social disorder, including in the Armed Forces.
No war – politics
Maisaia ‘8 – USAFA Defense Fellow
Vakhtang, PhD USAFA Defense Fellow, Military Expert, A War With Russia: Real Concern or Fabricated?, 3/3/8. Online

Moscow is seeking to communicate with the new
AND
number 1 priority for Obama Administration policy making.
Won’t escalate – peace negotiations
Ivashov ‘7
Colonel General Leonid Ivashov. President of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems. July 2007. "Will America Fight Russia." Defense and Security. No 78. Lexis.
Ivashov: Numerous scenarios and options are possible
AND
stop the war and put negotiations into motion.
Other countries will not perceive a decreased willingness to engage—retrenchment allows US to gather resources to increase deterrent capabilities
MacDonald and Parent 11—Profs of Political Science @ Williams and Miami
Paul K. and Joseph M., Graceful Decline?, International Security, Spring 2k11, Volume 35, Number 4, Muse
These arguments have a number of limitations.
AND
a concentrated capability at key points of challenge.

No evidence that credibility is key to influence others—prefer our ev because its based on psychological studies and not economic based models
Fettweis 7—Professor of Political Science @ Tulane
Christopher J., Credibility and the War on Terror Political Science Quarterly. New York: Winter 2007/2008. Vol. 122, Iss. 4; pg. 607, 27 pgs
Since Vietnam, scholars have been generally unable
AND
it was, it almost inevitably failed.40

Can’t solve warming
Hamilton 10 – Professor of Public Ethics @ ANU
Clive Hamilton, Professor of Public Ethics in Australia, 2010, “Requiem for a Species: Why We Resist the Truth About Climate Change,” pg 27-28
The conclusion that, even if we act
AND
—we have no chance of preventing emissions rising 

well above a number of critical tipping points
AND
to the problem was deferred for several years.
Warming doesn’t lead to extinction
Barrett 6 – Professor of International Policy @ Johns Hopkins
Scott, Professor and Director of International Policy, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, 2006, “CATASTROPHE: The Problem of Averting Global Catastrophe,” Chicago Journal of International Law, Lexis
Less dramatic changes are more likely. Abrupt
AND
climate shifts could directly destroy all humanity." 76

1NC MB
The Muslim Brotherhood will not cause an Islamist state – they recognize a commitment to the separation of mosque and state.
Hamid ‘11
Shadi Hamid, Director of Research at the Brookings Doha Center and a Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. “The Rise of the Islamists: How Islamists Will Change Politics, and Vice Versa”. Foreign Affairs. New York: May/Jun 2011. Vol. 90, Iss. 3; pg. 40. ProQuest.
Yet to the consternation of their own conservative
AND
2005 called Reintroducing the Brotherhood to the West.
History shows there will not be an Islamist takeover, even if the Muslim Brotherhood wins the elections. The last 30 years show the government will not likely be radical or aggressive. The Islamist model does not have popular appeal.
Goldstone ’11 – Professor of Public Policy @ George Mason
Jack A Goldstone, is Virginia E. and John T. Hazel, Jr., Professor at George Mason University's School of Public Policy. “Understanding the Revolutions of 2011: Weakness and Resilience in Middle Eastern Autocracies”. Foreign Affairs. New York: May/Jun 2011. Vol. 90, Iss. 3; pg. 8. ProQuest.
Some Western governments, having long supported Ben
AND
goals of all recent anti-sultanistic revolutions.
Aff’s author concludes US influence won’t moderate the Brotherhood- they only increase the risk of their impact
Meir-Levi ‘11
David Meir-Levi, Crazer that Gtown read as a key internal link card, “Obama, Al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood,” August 1st, 2011, http://www.israelunitycoalition.org/news/?p=7009
Abrams’ assessment is very reminiscent of Israel’s western
AND
not the dominant, political force in Egypt. 

*Marked Here

 Being able to boast of Obama’s implicit
AND
avowed and most hated enemy: Western civilization.
Aff is the kiss of death- support for Mubarak will be revealed during the trial and US support of Israel means groups get demonized
Arnold 8/11
(David, Writer for Voice of America, “Foreign Aid Stirs Debate Amid Egypt’s Democratic Hopes”, http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Foreign-Aid-Stirs-Debate-Amid-Egypts-Democratic-Hopes-127824353.html)
The stakes in the November elections are high
AND
other international donors have been received more freely. 

*Marked Here

The military council has orchestrated much of the
AND
a tough one for them to live down.”
Afghan instability doesn’t escalate
Finel ‘9
Dr. Bernard I. Finel, an Atlantic Council contributing editor, is a senior fellow at the American Security Project, “Afghanistan is Irrelevant,” Apr 27 http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/afghanistan-irrelevant
Fourth, we are now told that defeating
AND
in Kabul with control over the entire country.
Hezbollah attacks don’t trigger broader escalation – empirically proven.
Al Husseini ‘8
Huda al Husseini is a prominent Lebanese writer. “Consequences of a Nuclear Middle East”. 12/02/2008. http://aawsat.com/english/news.asp?section=2&id=11759
And what if Hezbollah launched its missiles against
AND
object to, but also what Iran exploits."
Afghanistan conflicts won’t spill-over – no one will be draw-in.
Fettweis ’11 – Professor of Political Science @ Tulane
Christopher Fettweis, Professor of Political Science @ Tulane. “Dangerous Times: The Futurist Interviews Christopher Fettweis”. World Future Society. 1/12/2011.  http://www.wfs.org/content/dangerous-times-futurist-interviews-christopher-fettweis
THE FUTURIST: In the next few years
AND
it spill over into other countries? Probably not

No impact or risk from Pakistani loose nukes
Mueller ’10 – professor of political science at OSU
John Mueller, professor of political science at Ohio State University, Calming Our Nuclear Jitters, Issues in Science & Technology, Winter 2010, Vol. 26, Issue 2
The terrorist group might also seek to steal
AND
of Pakistan, the weapons would be disassembled.

Neg: Kansas KK

Round #7  Tournament: Shirley

Vs Team: Gonzaga KM

Judge: Kelly Nickel

Off Case Args:

India CP

Gov Shutdown Politics DA

Lifton K

T – Can’t Have Substantial in the Plan

Must Spec Youth Groups

Case Args:

Case defense

Block Strategy:

K

Case Defense

2nr Strategy:

K

Case Defense

Neg: Kansas KK

Round # 6 Tournament: Shirley

Vs Team: GTwon DE

Judge: Doowon

Off Case Args:

T – DA

Millennium Challenge Corporation CP (new)

Shutdown DA

Democracy K

Case Args:

Case D

Block Strategy:

2NC: T, CP (enviro add-on with unsustainable growth add-on that only MCC can solve)

1NR: Case

2nr Strategy:

T, CP with add-ons, case D

Neg: Kansas KK

Round #3 Tournament: Shirley

Vs Team: Cornell CW

Judge: Kevin Kallmyer

Off Case Args:

T – Increase is to make greater, democracy assistance is the non-profit transfer of funds

Russia Relations DA

Government Shutdown Politics DA

OMB CP

Participatory Assistance K

Case Args:

Inherency

            Population supports Assad

Syria

            No Syrian civil war

            Alt causes

            Can’t solve war

            No Sunni/Shiite war

            No Indo-Pak war

            Indo-Pak war won’t go nuclear

            India and Pakistan will cooperate

            No Saudi/Iran war

Solvency

            Can’t solve – opposition can’t bring regime down

Block Strategy:

2NC

            Topicality

                        Extra T

            Solvency

            Advantage

1NR

            K

2nr Strategy:

Extra T

K

Case

Neg: Kansas KK

Round #1 

Tournament: The Shirley Classic 2011

Vs Team: UTSA NR

Judge:  Ricky Garner

Off Case Args:

-Resolutionality (T)- Must defend “should,” “resolved,” and USFG, as well as policy. 

            Should have to defend an action of the USFG

            Resolved means to enact by law.

USFG = all 3 branches

            Should = Aff has to defend that the USFG is obliged to act

            b.) Violation: They don’t use USFG action

            c.) Standards:

                        (1) Limits; Read a Shively ’00 card

(2) Role of the negative: Our interpretation has a clear vision for the function of the negative team. We must disprove the desirability of their advocacy. If there is no predictable limit on what the affirmative can do, the negative is excluded from the debate. We become passive observers of their presentation. Our interpretation is the least exclusionary because it provides a place in the debate for negative teams.

(3) Process impact:– this is the only academic forum where we get education based on clash and competition. If we aren’t able to prepare in advance for affirmatives the round becomes a 2 hour conference presentation about whatever books & articles they are reading, This education o/w any content specific education because

                                    (a) can get context specific education in other forums.

(b) Without critical thinking skills developed through clash and competition we can’t effectively act on content-specific knowledge *

                                    (d) W/o clash, no education

                        (4) Epistomology doesn’t come 1^st, b/c advocacy is not subject to the same scrutiny

                        (5) Switch-side debate is key to critical thinking. *

(6)Debate is about competing interps, if they don’t have one or ours is better, we win; Neg must

be able to debate a stable action. Guttman & Thompson ‘86

            d.) VI for reasons above

-Materialism K (Capitalism)

- Their method of cultural critique mystifies expansion of capitalism as the basis for social oppression- Marxism explains all their impact arguments without relying on cultural essentialism

            -Capitalism racializes subjects; à whiteness Stan ‘93

- The American Empire will have to square the circle of cap’s contradictions, à a cycle of imperial wars and extinction.

            -Vote Neg-The 1AC methodology is a prerequisite; asking the ? = humanizing capitalism

Case Args:

(1) Turn- East/West Binaries Replicate Ethnocentrism.*(* = card read)

(2) The arbitrary and fluid nature of East/West distinctions is not a reason to vote for the Aff’s K; it à dangerous politics.

(3) No link turns:

(a.)Meta-geography = orientalism and can’t solve class oppression &  They Re-inscribe Militarism.

(b.) Monolithic Representations = Replication of Power Relations; Domination.  The West is internally divided as well; Ex: Divisions in EU, Cultural norms, etc.*

Block Strategy:

Case, Materialism (Cap), Resolutionality (T)

2nr Strategy:

-Kicked capitalism, but used a few of the cards to feed their meta-geography arg., Went for case turns and T.

Judge voted neg on T.

Kansas KK Neg

Round # 8 Harvard

Vs Team: Wake BC

Judge: Stephen Weil

Case Args:

Kiss of Death

Competitiveness Bad/Speed K

Defense

Off Case Args:

T – Substantial = Vague

Politics – China Bashing

Iran ADV CP

Neolib K

Block Strategy:

Neolib K

Competitiveness Bad

Kiss of Death

Case D

2nr Strategy:

K

Competitiveness Bad

The United States federal government should not support a democracy assistance strategy for Libya. The Millennium Challenge Corporation should substantially expand development compact grants to include Libya in a compact strategy that requires a substantial increase in development assistance that is directed towards government and opposition parties.

The counterplan competes – political conditionality through the MCC is distinct from democracy assistance through USAID

Stahn & van Hüllen 7 - *Research Associate @ Free Univ in Berlin, **Research Associate in Politcal Science @ Free Univ in Berlin

Andreas Stahn, Research Associate for the Collaborative Research Project @ Free University Berlin, and Vera van Hüllen, Research Associate for the Otto Suhr Institute of Political Science @ Free University Berlin. Paper prepared for the European Union Studies Association (EUSA), Tenth Biennial International Conference, May 17-19, 2007, Montreal, Canada, pg. http://aei.pitt.edu/7911/1/hullen-v-03e.pdf

The governmental agency of most importance

US universe of governmental democracy promotion.

Second – the case – the counterplan solves and the plan doesn’t

CDDRL 8

Stanford University’s Center for Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law, “REORGANIZING U.S. GOVERNMENT DEMOCRACY PROMOTION EFFORTS” http://iis-db.stanford.edu/res/2329/Reorganizing.pdf

Expand the MCC, even if at the expense of traditional

increase the likelihood that aid with reach its intended target.

Third – MCA Leadership –

US foreign aid model is at a crossroads

Dobransky 11 – PhD Candidate @ Kent State

Steve, “The Coming Crisis in US Foreign Aid Policy,” http://www.unc.edu/depts/diplomat/item/2011/0104/comm/dobransky_coming.html

The U.S. now stands at a crossroads in foreign aid.  With the creation of the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) in 2004, the government has set foreign aid on a collision course with the long-established United States Agency for International Development (USAID), which was created in 1961 by President Kennedy.  The MCC and USAID have operated in relative cold, separate and redundant bureaucratic corners and they have not produced any noticeable differences in foreign aid distribution and results in the last half-decade.  The growing instability throughout the world and the continued mass poverty and hopelessness of billions is testament to the failures and limitations of U.S. foreign aid.

Expanding the MCC’s economic responsibilities sends a signal of a broader commitment to MCC

Rieffel and Fox 8 - *Nonresident Senior Fellow in the Global Economy @ Brookings, **Former Chief Economist @ USAID, Economic Consultant @ Brookings

Lex and James, “THE MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE NEXT PRESIDENT,” Brookings, http://www.policyarchive.org/handle/10207/bitstreams/14966.pdf

While it seems to fl y in the face of political realities

a better approach would be to build on the MCC.

That’s key to economic freedom and global growth

Yohannes 11 - *CEO of the MCC

Daniel, “Investing in Development: On the Road to Better Aid, MCC is Paving the Way,” http://www.mcc.gov/pages/press/speech/speech-011311-investingindevelopment

In December 2009, I was sworn in as MCC’s new CEO

our nation’s evolving global development policy.

This creates a back-stop that prevents global conflict

Gwartney 5 - *Professor of Economics @ FSU

James, et. al. “Economic Freedom of the World: 2005 Annual Report,” CATO Publications

Economic freedom is almost 50 times more effective

a statistically significant predictor of conflict.

MCC solves credibility

Hewko 10 – Int’l Attorney, Fellow @ Carnegie

John, “Millennium Challenge Corporation: Can the Experiment Survive?,” http://carnegieendowment.org/2010/03/29/millennium-challenge-corporation-can-experiment-survive/144

The Millennium Challenge Corporation is

technical expertise and capacity, and advance U.S. foreign policy objectives.

Counterplan solves – it’s the only route to civil society creation

Cohen and Kupcu 9 - New America Foundation in conjunction with Georgetown Law’s Human Rights Institute

 “Revitalizing U.S. Democracy Promotion: a Comprehensive Plan For Reform” http://www.newamerica.net/files/Revitalizing_US_Democracy_Promotion.pdf

Consolidating development and democracy assistance in one empowered

MCC has the potential to democratize democracy assistance.

Leads to stability

Beard 9 – Project Manager for US Programs @ Atlantic Partnership and Presidential Fellow @ Univ. of Michigan Ford School of Public Policy

Elle, "Are We Doing Enough? Sustainable Democracy Promotion and the Millennium Challenge Corporation," http://www.thepresidency.org/storage/documents/Fellows2009/University_of_Michigan_Beard.pdf

Upon Compact eligibility, by passing the strict selection criteria,

and transparent in their development of policy.

The MCC can work with NGOs and private organizations

Rieffel and Fox 8 - *Nonresident Senior Fellow in the Global Economy @ Brookings, **Former Chief Economist @ USAID, Economic Consultant @ Brookings

Lex and James, “THE MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE NEXT PRESIDENT,” Brookings, http://www.policyarchive.org/handle/10207/bitstreams/14966.pdf

Negotiating Partners. A third feature was the MCC’s

broken promises, and disappointed expectations.

MCC conditions key to environmental sustainability

Benedict and Bushgjoka 5 - *JD, Public Interest Projects, **MPA @ SF State

“Policy Analysis: Millennium Challenge Account,” http://userwww.sfsu.edu/~ebushgjo/documents/Final_MCA.pdf

The MCA selection criterion was developed based

environmental strategy and action plan.

That solves irreversible environmental harm

Purvis 3 - Brookings Scholar on Environment and Development, Foreign Policy

Nigel, “Greening U.S. Foreign Aid through the Millennium Challenge Account,” http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2003/06energy_purvis.aspx

What does the environment have to do with promoting development

protection must be pursued simultaneously.

Extinction

Chen 2k – Professor of Law at University of Minnesota and Dean of Law School at Louisville

Jim, Globalization and Its Losers:, 9  Minn. J. Global Trade 157’ LexisNexis Legal

Conscious decisions to allow the extinction of a species

n ten mil- lion years, perhaps a hundred million.348

MCA autonomy – The counterplan alone is key to building the MCC model

-otherwise, it taints intracountry negotiations

Stubbs 9 – JD Candidate @ Vandy

Rebecca, “The Millennium Challenge Account: Influencing Governance in Developing Countries Through Performance-Based Foreign Aid,” 42 Vand. J. Transnat'l L. 621, Lexis

The rapidly changing political climate only serves

leaders more sympathetic with the MCA’s mission.

This is a literature-based distinction – democracy assistance must make democracy the primary purpose

Lappin ‘10

Richard Lappin, a PhD candidate at the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven in Belgium, He has participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE and Carter Center, visiting Scholar  at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade under the JoinEU-SEE programme. “What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation”. Central European Journal of International and Security Studies. Vol.4, No.1, May (2010). http://www.cejiss.org/sites/default/files/8.pdf

Furthermore, as democracy has become

meaningful evaluations of post-conflict democracy assistance can be drawn.

Democracy is a secondary purpose of the counterplan – economics is first

Clark 5 - retired career Foreign Service Officer, former fellow @ NED

Elizabeth, “THE MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE ACCOUNT: SPUR TO DEMOCRACY?,” http://www.cgdev.org/doc/mca%20monitor/clark.pdf

All of the MCA innovations are designed to answer longstanding

doing democracy” — without talking about it.

That mean the perm severs “should” – it’s “must” and “immediate

Summers 94

Justice – Oklahoma Supreme Court, “Kelsey v. Dollarsaver Food Warehouse of Durant”, 1994 OK 123, 11-8, http://www.oscn.net/applications/oscn/DeliverDocument.asp?CiteID=20287#marker3fn13

¶4 The legal question to be resolved

336, 337, 27 L.Ed. 201 (1882).

Plan is USAID

NRC 8

Committee on Evaluation of USAID Democracy Assistance Programs - National Research Council at the National Academies, 2008,

http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/22159/12164_EXS.pdf

Over the past 25 years, the United States

the effectiveness of an important national policy.

A.    Government shut down will be avoided now

Reilly 11-11-11

Congress could approve FY12 funds for several agencies by next week Sean Reilly reporter for Federal Times http://www.federaltimes.com/article/20111111/CONGRESS03/111110303/

The continuing resolution that is keeping

Steve Ellis of Taxpayers for Common Sense, a watchdog organization.

B.    Links

The window for getting a continuing resolution passed is tiny—an unexpected new policy fight this week would lead to shutdown

Helderman 11-3-11

By Rosalind S. Helderman, Reporter for Washington Post 

 Congress holds rare appropriations conference  http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/2chambers/post/congress-holds-rare-appropriations-conference/2011/11/03/gIQAN1dajM_blog.html

House and Senate appropriators Thursday

the government to the brink of a shutdown over spending disputes.

Foreign aid is controversial- links to the aff but not the counterplan

Dobransky 11 – PhD Candidate @ Kent State

Steve, “The Coming Crisis in US Foreign Aid Policy,” http://www.unc.edu/depts/diplomat/item/2011/0104/comm/dobransky_coming.html

The arguments against eliminating the MCC stress

Give it at least five more years and then see what it has done.

C.   Impact-- Shutdown would crush the U.S. economy

Alden 11

William Alden is a business reporter for The Huffington Post. He has also written for the New York Observer and the New York Press and is a graduate of Yale University,    Prolonged Government Shutdown Could Wither Confidence And Even Trigger Recession,  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/29/government-shutdown-economy_n_842262.html

An extended federal government shutdown could devastate

Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics.

Economic collapse causes nuclear war- extinction

Broward 9 ((Member of Triond) http://newsflavor.com/opinions/will-an-economic-collapse-kill-you/)

Now its time to look at the consequences of

important issue facing us in the 21st century.

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//The United States federal government (USFG) should immediately withdraw its armed forces from Iraq. The USFG should declare a no-first-use nuclear policy. The USFG should pressure Israel to abandon its attempts to settle the West Bank.

The advantage is reverse causal – a declaration of NFU solves

Arbatov 8

Alexei, Deputy Chairman of the Duma Defense Committee of the State Duma in the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, “Non-First Use As a Way of Outlawing Nuclear Weapons,” International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, November.

In this context a real problem is US readiness to recognize the legitimacy of China’s 

AND

not  indispensable) to a mutual NFU pledge by the USA and China.

US no-first-use policy is key to future US-Russia cooperation on nuclear weapons

Feiveson and Hogendoorn 3 (Harold A. and Ernst J., “No First Use of Nuclear Weapons,” The Nonproliferation Review/Summer 2003)

But for the declaratory policies more generally (considering first the United states alone),

AND

possibly also help set the stage for later, more binding, commitments.

India will model a US no first use pledge – it’s key to preventing escalation

Sagan 9

Scott D. Sagan, Professor of Political Science and Director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, “The Case for No First Use,” June 5, 2009, Routledge, International Institute for Strategic Studies

The best example is India since its 1998 weapons tests. In 1999, for

AND

have at least some positive influence in pushing India in the opposite direction.

Counterplan is the only way to revive military readiness

Conley in ‘1

Harry Conley, “Not With Impunity: Assessing US Policy for Retaliating to a Chemical or Biological Attack,” Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, 2001,

Being ready to retaliate following a CBW attack against the United States also implies an

AND

the Armed Forces may be strategically unprepared to respond when the time comes.

Inherency

There are no ideological restrictions on party support- and its provided in the squo for basic electoral functions- no inherent affs

Taylor 11/3

PTC

Will pass but will be a fight

Lee 12/31

Carol, staff writer, White House Looks to Shrunken 2012 Legislative Agenda, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204720204577131543017594740.html

The president~’s aides are convinced Congress will ultimately extend to the end of 2012 the

AND

his now-familiar message of being a champion of the middle class.

The plan generates a massive controversy

Richter, LAT, ~’11

(Correspondent, LA Times. "Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition," http://articles.latimes.com/print/2011/apr/12/world/la-fg-mideast-aid-20110413, accessed 9-28-11, CMM)

Reporting from Washington — The Obama administration~’s efforts to use foreign aid to help Middle

AND

is crucial." But the administration has been blocked at almost every turn.

Political capital is key

Philadelphia Inquirer, 9/8

POINT: Don~’t expect miracles on job growth; Some steps could help, but don~’t expect miracles, 9/8/2011, http://articles.philly.com/2011-09-08/news/30130709_1_jobs-plan-american-economy-rare-tax

President Obama goes into Thursday~’s big speech on creating jobs with one hand tied behind

AND

coming from a party that made a major effort to privatize Social Security.

Payroll is key to Obama

Moberg 11

David. Staff Writer, "Will Obama~’s Job Plan Save His?" In These Times, [[http://inthesetimes.com/article/12163/will_obamas_job_plan_save_his-http://inthesetimes.com/article/12163/will_obamas_job_plan_save_his]]   

Even if Obama~’s new jobs bill, which was proposed in September, did not

AND

cuts in years to come would pay for the short-term deficit.

The plan could generate around 1.9 million jobs next year, raise GDP growth by as much as 2 percent and cut one point off the unemployment rate, estimates Moody~’s Analytics economist Mark Zandi. (About 25 million Americans are looking for full-time work.) Robert Johnson, executive director of the Institute for New Economic Thinking, calculates that Obama~’s plan if implemented would boost Obama~’s popular vote by 1.34 percentage points, a small but not insignificant edge.

A GOP victory in 2012 leads to Iran strikes, oil shocks, and Middle Eastern war

Curiel 10

Jonathan, journalist in San Francisco and the author of Al~’ America: "What Might Just Happen of Obama Loses in 2012", [[http://trueslant.com/jonathancuriel/-http://trueslant.com/jonathancuriel/]], 7/28/2010, accessed 6/24/2011

Less than four months from now, the mid-term elections will determine if

AND

historically – become the world~’s leading front for insurgency against the United States.

United States Department of State, AMBASSADOR TAYLOR, “United States, Canada and Africa; 
U.S. Support for Democratic Transitions in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia,” November 3, 2011, Lexis

Since – in addition to that, on top of that, we are providing

AND

it has been provided on a nonpartisan basis, not to individual parties.

Lack of inherency is a voting issue-

A.) DA uniqueness- makes it impossible to demonstrate an issue with the plan outside of the already existing problems in the squo

B.) Burden of proof- aff has failed to prove the necessity of departing substantially from the squo- they have to prove a high degree of inherency, not merely a possibility of an advantage to additional support

Hold the hard line- it encourages better research and knowledge of the actual function of political party support

==1NC==

Capacity building is grounded in neoliberal competiveness- allows expert cooption of the transition

Dixon ~’11

(Marion, Department of Development Sociology, Cornell University, "An Arab spring", Review of African Political Economy

Vol. 38, No. 128, June 2011, 309–316)

The role of US aid in promoting a professional class of international development ~’experts~’

AND

Gramsci~’s terms – the twin mutually reinforcing hegemony of coercion and of consent.

Globalization makes extinction inevitable- social and environmental factors build positive feedbacks create a cascade of destruction - only massive social reorganization of society can produce sustainable change and save the planet

Ehrenfeld ~’5,

(David, Dept. of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources @ Rutgers University, "The Environmental Limits to Globalization", Conservation Biology Vol. 19 No. 2 April 2005)

The known effects of globalization on the environment are numerous and highly significant. Many

AND

have become so thoroughly entwined with ours within the global environment we share.

Alternative Text: the judge should vote negative to refuse the aff~’s neoliberal subjectivity

Refusing neoliberal subjectivity opens space for chains of equivalence with the Arab Spring and creates new movements against neoliberal politics

Hasso %26 Dolgan ~’11

(Frances, Associate Professor of Women~’s Studies, International Comparative Studies and Sociology at Duke, "Arab Spring: An Interview with Frances Hasso on Revolutions in the Middle East", Interview with Corey Dolgan in This Week in Sociology, March 21, 2001, [[http://www.thisweekinsociology.com/?p=84-http://www.thisweekinsociology.com/?p=84]])

In a recent interview you suggest that these movements have produced a new "emerging

AND

others are asking in our own interpersonal, institutional, and political lives.

You should evaluate pedagogy as a prior question- it determines available political possibilities and shapes politics- neoliberal pedagogy uniquely collapses the public sphere

Giroux ~’5,

(Henry, Global TV Network Chair in English and Cultural Studies at McMaster University, The Terror of Neoliberalism: Rethinking the Significance of Cultural Politics, College Literature 32.1 ~~[Winter 2005~~])

Fortunately, the corporate capitalist fairytale of neoliberalism has been  challenged all over the globe

AND

struggle for a substantive and inclusive democracy) and the  global public sphere.

Relations improving now because of arms deal—still tenuous

Washington Post 12/29
Joby Warrick and Jason Ukman  "U.S. touts Saudi Arabia fighter jet deal as a foreign policy, security and economic boon" ~[http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/massive-us-saudi-arms-deal-seen-as-a-foreign-policy-security-and-economic-boon/2011/12/29/gIQATNWQPP_story.html~~]
The Obama administration on Thursday hailed a new htmlwith Saudi
AND
Spring uprisings, U.S. officials and Middle East analysts said. 

US push for reform in Bahrain will break US-Saudi relations

ICG ’11
International Crisis Group, 7/28, Bahrain’s Rocky Road to Reform, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/iran-gulf/bahrain.aspx)
Following on the heels of the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions, the Bahrain events presented
AND
repression of opposition movements in Libya and Syria, but not in Bahrain.

Breakdown of relations spurs Saudi prolif

Lippman, 8/5
(Sr. Adjunct Scholar-Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.susris.com/2011/08/05/saudi-arabia~’s-nuclear-policy-lippman/)
So let us suppose that Saudi Arabia’s currently testy relationship with the United States deteriorated
AND
much so that Saudi Arabia might emerge less secure, rather than more.

That causes global nuclear war

Edelman, 11
(Jan/Feb, Distinguished Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments %26 Former U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Foreign Affairs, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67162/eric-s-edelman-andrew-f-krepinevich-jr-and-evan-braden-montgomer/the-dangers-of-a-nuclear-iran)
There is, however, at least one state that could receive significant outside support
AND
Middle East could lead to a new Great Game, with unpredictable consequences.

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//***1nc***

Capacity building is grounded in neoliberal competiveness- allows expert cooption of the transition

Dixon ~’11

(Marion, Department of Development Sociology, Cornell University, "An Arab spring", Review of African Political Economy

Vol. 38, No. 128, June 2011, 309–316)

The role of US aid in promoting a professional class of international development ~’experts~’

AND

Gramsci~’s terms – the twin mutually reinforcing hegemony of coercion and of consent.

Globalization makes extinction inevitable- social and environmental factors build positive feedbacks create a cascade of destruction - only massive social reorganization of society can produce sustainable change and save the planet

Ehrenfeld ~’5,

(David, Dept. of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources @ Rutgers University, "The Environmental Limits to Globalization", Conservation Biology Vol. 19 No. 2 April 2005)

The known effects of globalization on the environment are numerous and highly significant. Many

AND

have become so thoroughly entwined with ours within the global environment we share.

Alternative Text: the judge should vote negative to refuse the aff~’s neoliberal subjectivity

Refusing neoliberal subjectivity opens space for chains of equivalence with the Arab Spring and creates new movements against neoliberal politics

Hasso %26 Dolgan ~’11

(Frances, Associate Professor of Women~’s Studies, International Comparative Studies and Sociology at Duke, "Arab Spring: An Interview with Frances Hasso on Revolutions in the Middle East", Interview with Corey Dolgan in This Week in Sociology, March 21, 2001, [[http://www.thisweekinsociology.com/?p=84-http://www.thisweekinsociology.com/?p=84]])

In a recent interview you suggest that these movements have produced a new "emerging

AND

others are asking in our own interpersonal, institutional, and political lives.

You should evaluate pedagogy as a prior question- it determines available political possibilities and shapes politics- neoliberal pedagogy uniquely collapses the public sphere

Giroux ~’5,

(Henry, Global TV Network Chair in English and Cultural Studies at McMaster University, The Terror of Neoliberalism: Rethinking the Significance of Cultural Politics, College Literature 32.1 ~~[Winter 2005~~])

Fortunately, the corporate capitalist fairytale of neoliberalism has been  challenged all over the globe

AND

struggle for a substantive and inclusive democracy) and the  global public sphere.

***2nc***

Their concern for fossil fuel extraction is temporal displacement- it erases generational and affective maps of the land and re-codes the environment as dead matter- removes cultural and material barriers to fast capitalist extraction of oil

Nixon ‘11

(Rob, Rachel Carson Professor of English, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Slow Violence and the Environmentalism of the Poor, pgs. 17-18)

In the global resource

made it inhabitable.

Fast capitalist coding of the environment leads to extinction- resource wars and collapses the biosphere

Simons ’10

(Petrus, Former Trader and Economist, PhD in Philosophy, “Accelerate or Slow Down”, Stimulus: The New Zealand Journal of Christian Thought & Practice, Vol. 18 (2010): 32-25)

Paul Virilio’s metaphor of

more painfully that speed kills.

Neoliberalism is the root cause of African instability- US driven secession

Engdahl 10/22

(William F., independent researcher and contributor to Centre for Research on Globalization, “Washington Targeting China’s Achilles Heel”,  http://mayihlome.wordpress.com/2011/10/22/washington-targeting-china%E2%80%99s-achilles-heel/)

Then in July 2011 Southern

US military influence in Africa.

Competitiveness causes trade wars and protectionism- turns their offense

Krugman ‘94,

PhD (Paul, Nobel Prize winning Economist, Professor of Economics and International Affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University, Centenary Professor at the London School of Economics, and an op-ed columnist for The New York Times) March/April Foreign Affairs “Competitiveness: A Dangerous Obsession” l/n

A much more serious risk is

will destroy the U.S. manufacturing base.

The permutation ensures co-option- political action is only possible if it directly engages existing hegemonic coordinates, they ensure collapse of the transition

Zizek 10/26

(Slavoj, International Director of the Birkbeck Institute for the Humanities, “Occupy first. Demands come later”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/oct/26/occupy-protesters-bill-clinton)

What one should resist

threatening as it should be.

Pinker’s analysis is useless- entirely ignores role of population growth, which accounts for all of the change he cites

Flynn 12/7

Julian Flynn, Financial Times, “Angel thesis hangs on overpopulation,” December 7, 2011, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/30bf527c-1cfb-11e1-a134-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1h1lHx8gS

Sir, Gideon Rachman’s article

hanging over our planet.

Human nature can be changed- its not set in advance and pedagogical transformation in this debate can change economic preference formation

Schor ‘10

(Julie, Prof. of Economics @ Boston College, Plenitude: The New Economics of True Wealth, pgs. 11-12)

And we don't have to

what plenitude offers.

Democracy assistance to Libya is part of a violent and self-interested process of oil appropriation

Hernandez, 12

(Oil and the Arab Spring: a 21st Century Domino Effect, Jan 3, 2012Julio Hernandez, “Middle East Domino Effect” http://julio-hernandez.suite101.com/is-the-arab-spring-the-21st-century-domino-effect-a400315#ixzz1j0UgfD7l)

The revolutions and

to neoliberal protocols.

Credibility focus causes error replication and generates conflict

Lebow 11

 [Richard Ned, IR at Dartmouth, “Aggressive Democracies,” St Antony’s International Review 6, no. 2 (2011): 120–33]

Unlike other parvenu powers

failure, and renewed constraints.

These movements are different- crumbling economies in the global north have created material solidarity between the first and third world- creates an effective mindset shift

Harvey 10/27

(Ryan, writer, an organizer with the Civilian-Soldier Alliance, “Globalization” Is Coming Home: Protests Spread as Financial Institutions Target Global North”, Thursday 27 October 2011, http://www.truth-out.org/world-finally-fighting-infection-neoliberalism/1320164620?q=globalization-coming-home-protests-spread-financial-institutions-target-global-north/1319721791)

Shortly before the once-prized

the world’s wealthiest people.