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Contention 1- Stability
Aid now and more to come
Blanchard 12/8
Christopher M Blanchard, analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs at CRS. “Libya: Transition and U.S. Policy”. December 8, 2011. https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33142.pdf
Many Members of Congress welcomed the announcement of
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Libyans injured or displaced during the revolution.9
It takes out their DAs but not the aff – Libya needs democratic engagement, not more money.
NYT ‘11
New York Times. “U.S. must have role in shaping new Libya”. 2011. http://www.statesman.com/opinion/u-s-must-have-role-in-shaping-new-1927837.html?viewAsSinglePage=true
Jibril has said that with Gadhafi's death the
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Libyans into building a stable and peaceful democracy.
Increasing protests in Libya threaten the legitimacy of the NTC and a peaceful transition.
Engel 12/19
Andrew Engel, a former research assistant at The Washington Institute, is a Beirut-based analyst who recently traveled across Libya. “Challenges Facing the Libyan Government”. December 19, 2011. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3434
Libya's interim prime minister, Abdul Rahim al
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Protests have reportedly spread to Misratah and Darnah.
Without credibility the NTC will not be able to unite Libya and prevent the emergence of another civil war
Engel 11/2
Andrew Engel, a former research assistant at The Washington Institute, is a Beirut-based analyst who recently traveled across Libya. “Libya's Post-Qadhafi Challenges”. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. PolicyWatch #1866. November 2, 2011. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3417
Although Libyans were unified in their hatred of
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Jalil has warned of "a stolen revolution."
Civil War goes Nuclear – Draws in Russia China
Lendman 11 (Stephen, Harvard BA and Wharton MBA, 7/6, “Libya - Flashpoint For World Conflict”, http://www.rense.com/general94/libya.htm)
Scott told Progressive Radio News Hour listeners that
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now than WW I seemed in early 1914.
Contention 2 – Chinese Influence
Current Western Aid comes with conditions that will inevitably lead the NTC to seek Chinese aid
Gvosdev 11
Nikolas K. Gvosdev is the former editor of the National Interest, and a frequent foreign policy commentator in both the print and broadcast media. He is currently on the faculty of the U.S. Naval War College. “The Realist Prism: Gratitude vs. Neutrality in Post-Gadhafi Libya”. September 9, 2011. http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9952/the-realist-prism-gratitude-vs-neutrality-in-post-gadhafi-libya
But over time, gratitude gives way to
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: Gratitude has a short shelf-life.
China looking to expand its influence in Africa through LIbya
Junbo 11 (Dr Jiao, an assistant professor of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, Shanghai, China, is currently an academic visitor at London School of Economics and Political Science, United Kingdom, 8/31, “China's second coming in Libya”, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/MH31Ad01.html)
With Libyan rebels taking over Tripoli and authoritarian
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Beijing hopes to recover and expand economic interests.
Chinese influence in Africa causes failed states and Resource Wars
Brookes and Shin 6
Peter and Ji Hye, Director of Asian Studies Center and Research Assistant in the Asian Studies Center,"China's Influence in Africa: Implications for the United States,"The Heritage Foundation, February 22, heritage.org/Research/Reports/2006/02/Chinas-Influence-in-Africa-Implications-for-the-United-States
In recent years, Beijing has identified the
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respect for human rights across the African continent.
African resource wars are the most likely scenario for extinction
Okunlola 9 (Paul, Writer on human settlements issues for The Guardian in Lagos, Nigeria, 7/27, “The African monsoon, global climate change and our concerns, by scientists,” http://www.ngrguardiannews.com/homes_property/article01/indexn2_html?pdate=270709&ptitle=The%20African%20monsoon,%20global%20climate%20change%20and%20our%20concerns,%20by%20scientists)
IF current thinking within the global science community
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during the week-long 3rd AMMA conference.
State Failure destroys the Enviroment
Sachs in '1
(Jeffrey, Prof. Econ @ Harvard, Washington Quarterly, "The Strategic Significance of Global Inequality", Vol. 24, Iss. 3, Project Muse)
Economic collapse and state failure are maior contributors
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economic stress, if not outright failure. 11
Environmental destruction causes extinction
Charles W. Fowler 8, National Marine Mammal Laboratory, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries, Maximizing biodiversity, information and sustainability, Biodivers Conserv (2008) 17:841–855 853
This study responds to world-wide concern
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the inherent complexity of nature cannot be ignored.
Libya’s the key – the US can evict China from all of North Africa
Roberts 11 – Paul Craig Roberts, Former Assistant Secretary to the US Treasury, 5/15/11, in PressTV, 5/16/11, 'Libya is US, China's battleground' , hamsayeh.net/society/703-libya-is-us-chinas-battleground.html
Roberts: I don't think the Chinese and
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Angola where the Chinese also have oil investments.
Plan counters Chinese influence – prevents Failed states
Brookes 6 (Peter, Director of the Asian Studies Center, and Ji Hye Shin is a Research Assistant in the Asian Studies Center, at The Heritage Foundation, “China's Influence in Africa: Implications for the United States”, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2006/02/chinas-influence-in-africa-implications-for-the-united-states)
Amid growing concerns about the People's Republic of
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respect for human rights across the African continent.
Relations solve nothing
Miller 12/16 (Paul, assistant professor of international security studies – National Defense University, 2011, http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/12/16/how_dangerous_is_the_world_part_ii)
China in 2011 is even more clearly a danger equal to or greater than the danger it posed during the Cold War. We went through two phases with China: from 1950 to 1972 the United States and China were declared enemies and fought to a very bloody stalemate in the Sino-America battles of the Korean War, but the overt hostility was less dangerous because of China's crippling economic weakness. From 1972 to 1989, the U.S. and China lessened their hostility considerably, but China's power also began to grow quickly as it liberalized its economy and modernized its armed forces. In other words, in phase one, China was hostile but weak; in phase two, more friendly but also more powerful. We have never faced a China that was both powerful and hostile.
That is exactly the scenario that may be
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at almost any point since the Korean War.
Contention 3 is US Influence
Scenario 1 is Credibility
The U.S. is perceived as retreating from the Middle East
Kagan 10/23
Robert Kagan, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe. Christiane Amanpour conducted interview. ABC News (This Week in Politics). “'This Week' Transcript: Secretary Hillary Clinton, Sen. John McCain”. October 23, 2011. http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/week-transcript-secretary-hillary-clinton-sen-john-mccain/story?id=14797273&page=4#.TrNLX3EzISU
AMANPOUR: And, Bob, how is
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, it's going to look like a retreat.
The US needs to take the lead on Libyan reconstruction—that rebuilds US image throughout the region—ceding leadership to others undermines good will
Wolfowitz 11/3
Paul Wolfowitz, former United States Ambassador to Indonesia, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense, President of the World Bank, and former dean of the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University. He is currently a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute,.“America's Opportunity in Libya”. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204394804577011721031265512.html
But the failure of the U.S
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pay a higher price if we do nothing.
Success in Libya is the test case for U.S. influence in the region
Ghitis 11
Firda Ghitis, world affairs columnist, author and consultant and weekly author at World Politics Review. “World Citizen: Libya Emerges as Major Test of Western, U.S. Influence”. August 26, 2011. http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9882/world-citizen-libya-emerges-as-major-test-of-western-u-s-influence
The future of Libya was never terribly important
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, not to mention friendly to the West.
Only U.S. credibility can resolve transnational problems – terror, disease, climate change, and nuclear war.
Nye ‘11
Joseph S. Nye Jr., University Distinguished Service Professor at Harvard University, God of Soft Power “The Future of Power”, 2011. P. XVI-XVII. Google Books.
Today, power in the world is distributed
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broader narrative are the purposes of this book.
Diseases threaten human extinction.
Fox 97
C. William. Lieutenant COLONEL. 6/24/97. http://se1.isn.ch/serviceengine/FileContent?serviceID=ISN&fileid=4341F68C-1AF1-FEB7-10D7-5EE127216D05&lng=en.
HIV is a pandemic killer without a cure
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for deliberate use of weapons of mass destruction.
Scenario 2 is Iran
Leading from behind in Libya collapses U.S. leadership and heightens Iranian aggression
Singh 8/31
Michael Singh is managing director of The Washington Institute and a former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council. “Leading from Behind Still Isn't a Good Idea”. August 31, 2011. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1706
Nevertheless, the way in which the Obama
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East, a development with deeply troubling implications.
Unchecked Iranian aggression sparks confrontation in the Straits of Hormuz causing oil prices to rise and a US-Iran war
Parsi 12/28
Trita, Phd Johns Hopkins, International Studies Treacherous Alliance - The Secret Dealings of Iran, Israel and the United States (Yale University Press, 2007), recipient of the Council on Foreign Relation's 2008 Arthur Ross Silver Medallion and the 2010 Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order. Dr. Parsi will be releasing his upcoming book A Single Roll of the Dice - Obama's Diplomacy with Iran (Yale University Press), early 2012. http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/28/without-renewed-diplomacy-iran-crisis-will-deepen/
Initially, threats of closing the Straits of
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confrontation, whether we intend it or not.
High oil prices destroy the plastics and semiconductor industry
Jones 11
Roland Jones , writer ABC news Sept. 22 2011 Rise in Oil Prices Hits Many Sectors
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=89320&page=1#.TtbVcU_8omc
If you think the high cost of oil
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service and technology companies that fuel the economy.
That’s key to the Economy.
NDU in ‘8
National Defense University. “Spring 2008 Industry Study Final Report: Electronics Industry”. 2008.
http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA487610&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf
The Importance of Semiconductor Leadership. It is
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economic growth relative to non-IT industries.
Economic collapse causes extinction
Kerpen 8
Phil, National Review Online, October 29, , Don't Turn Panic Into Depression, http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/29/opinion/main4555821.shtml
It’s important that we avoid all these policy
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markets. The stakes couldn’t be any higher.
Iranian aggression causes regional war and miscalc
Lynch ‘11
Marc Lynch, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, “Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East”, June, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Upheaval_Lynch_2.pdf
As it struggles to recalibrate its Iran policy
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to produce sudden and game-changing war.
Plan
Contention 4 - Solvency
Reconciliation and demobilization combined with increased support for good governance in local institutions is key to a stable transition
Daragahi 10/26
Borzou Daragahi. “Libyan critics of NTC concerned for democracy”. October 26, 2011. The Financial Times. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/fbc67408-ffd4-11e0-89ce-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1cfZ8EusW
Muammer Gaddafi is dead and buried, his
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to feel like ordinary people can influence decisions.”
The creation of strong state institutions and maintaining NTC credibility is critical for stability and rebuilding Libya
Barfi 12/26
Barak Barfi is a research fellow at the New America Foundation. “Rebuilding the ruins of Gadhafi”. December 26, 2011. CNN Global Public Square. http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/26/barfi-rebuilding-the-ruins-of-gadhafi/
With the creation of a new government,
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state institutions required to respond to Libyans’ needs.
Transitional justice is key to building the NTC’s Credibility
Hsu & Huang 7
S. Philip, Associate Professor of Political Science, and Executive Director of the Center for China Studies in College of Social Sciences at National Taiwan University. His research interests include international relations, comparative political economy, and China studies. Chang-Ling is Associate Professor of Political Science at National Taiwan University. Her research interests include gender politics and labor politics. She is a contributor to the edited volume Gender, Culture, and Society and has published works in Developing Economy, Issues & Studies, and Anthropology of Work Review,, “Political Challenges and Democratic Institutions: International and Taiwan’s Perspectives” publication of the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy
Second, as a political institution established during
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relationship between the state and citizens can be enhanced
U.S. governance assistance is key – unique position and prior experience means only the U.S. has a chance to ensure an effective transition
Vandewalle ‘11
Dirk Vandewalle, Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College. “The Reconstruction of Libya Local and International Constraints and Opportunities”. Testimony before the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee Washington, D.C. 6 April 2011. http://foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Vandewalle%20Testimony.pdf
The United States and the international community,
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that all its citizens can truly subscribe to.
U.S. support for transitional justice mechanisms like demobilization, reconciliation, and institution building will ensure a peaceful transition-the window of opportunity for the US to assert it’s experience is closing
Dobbins and Wehrey ‘11
James Dobbins, a former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, is director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the RAND Corporation. Frederic Wehrey is a senior policy analyst at RAND. “How to build a free Libya”. August 24, 2011. http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/24/how-to-build-a-free-libya/
With the fall of the Libyan leader Moammar
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the road may nevertheless be long and rocky.
