Contention 1: Assad

First, Protests are growing and strengthening

Ismail 8/26

Salwa Ismail, professor of politics with reference to the Middle East at the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London. “Bashar al-Assad's fall is inevitable”. The Guardian. August 26, 2011. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/aug/26/assad-fall-inevitable-syrians-intervention

The dramatic developments in Libya 

AND

the end of a despised authoritarian regime.

And, The economy will collapse

Achy 8/17

Lahcen Achy, resident scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Center, Ph.D., Economics, Université Libre de Bruxelles. “The Economic Consequences of Syria's Social Unrest”. Los Angeles Times. August 17, 2011. http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2011/08/syria-the-economic-consequences-of-social-unrest-.html

Popular protests in Syria over the last 

AND

and likely lead to the regime’s collapse.

And, The Praetorian Guard is overstretched and violence cannot quell the protests, Assad will run out of funds.

Gardner 8/8

David Gardner. “This can only end with the Assads’ fall”. August 8, 2011.The Financial Times. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ef7f80d2-c1a8-11e0-acb3-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1Uvjs8D5j

The debris of destruction Bashar al-Assad’s

AND

, as dozens of others erupt.

The only question is how the U.S. can shape the transition and post-Assad government.

Kessler and Doran 8/16

Oren Kessler and Michael S. Doran, is a visiting professor at the Robert F. Wagner Graduate School for Public Service at New York University, Ph.D. in History, Princeton University, An expert on the international politics of the Middle East. “'Iran, not peace process, should drive US policy on Syria'”. Jerusalem Post. 8/16/2011. http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=234031

"The result is that we have 

AND

 Assad to go, and to go soon."

U.S. action now is critical to stop Syria from devolving into a civil war, if the U.S. waits until it is too late it will be forced to intervene militarily.

Abrams 8/2

Elliott Abrams, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, handled Middle East affairs at the National Security Council from 2001 to 2009. “Preventing Civil War in Syria”. August 2, 2011. The Wall Street Journal. http://www.cfr.org/syria/preventing-civil-war-syria/p25576

Syria remains rocked by antiregime 

AND

Assad family and its closest cronies from the rest of the Alawite community.

***Stability Adv 1AC – ME War/Af-Pak***

Advantage: Stability

Syria is becoming a proxy war—US is key to quell Saudi Influence and avoid a sectarian conflict

Mainen 7/25

Matthew Mainen, is a policy analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs, he has worked on numerous projects including IGA's groundbreaking analysis of Saudi Arabia's educational system. He is widely published, and has a particular interest in Israeli-Gulf relations. July 25, 2011. Mainen Middle East Analysis. “Saudi's Dangerous Role in Syria”. http://mainen.blogspot.com/2011/07/saudis-dangerous-role-in-syria.html

While Saudi Arabia’s involvement in suppressing 

AND

 to contain Iran, not a Saudi proxy.

And, Iran will not stand on the sidelines in a Syrian civil war – leads it an Iran-Israel war – deterrence doesn’t solve.

Javedanfar 9/2

Meir Javedanfar is an Iranian – Israeli Middle East analyst and the co-author of The Nuclear Sphinx of Tehran: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and The State of Iran. “Why civil war in Syria would serve Iran well”. September 2, 2011. The Diplomat. http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/02/why-civil-war-in-syria-would-serve-iran-well/

But what if there is instead a civil war? After all, 

AND

lost Bahrain to the Saudis – it’s

And, Iranian involvement will cause a larger Turkey-Iran conflict.

Roy ‘11

Olivier Roy, is professor of social and political theory at the European University Institute in Florence. “The crisis in Syria is leading the Middle East into uncharted territory”. August 24, 2011. The New Statesman. http://www.newstatesman.com/middle-east/2011/08/syria-iran-turkey-regime-assad

Syria is undoubtedly the country 

AND

for preventing the situation from spiralling out of control.

Sectarian conflict in Syria will spillover throughout the region causing instability and wars – new sectarian conflict will escalate – each side is backed by a nervous regional power.

Nasr 8/27 – Professor of Politics at Tufts University

Vali Nasr is professor at Tufts University, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and the author of “The Shia Revival: How Conflicts Within Islam Will Shape the Future.”. August 27, 2011. “If the Arab Spring Turns Ugly”. The New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/opinion/sunday/the-dangers-lurking-in-the-arab-spring.html?pagewanted=all

Syria today stands at the 

AND

Syria and Iraq, it is already happening.

Middle East conflict goes global and nuclear.

Primakov ‘9 - Doctor of Economics, Professor, executive member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Head of the Center for Situational Analysis at the Russian Academy of Sciences

Yevgeny Primakov is President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation; Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences; member of the Editorial Board of Russia in Global Affairs. The Fundamental Conflict: The Middle East Problem in the Context of International Relations. Russia in Global Affairs Vol 7 No 3. 2009. http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/105702/ichaptersection_singledocument/71a40dca-23cb-411d-9c5d-a7ce495e2522/en/12.pdf

The Middle East conflict is 

AND

position does not completely rule out such a possibility.

War in the Middle East is comparatively most probable and has the highest magnitude

Ferguson 7 – Professor of History @ Harvard University

Niall, 6/17,  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/06/17/do1701.xml

For some time I have been warning 

AND

a recipe for Armageddon.

And, Sectarian conflict will spread throughout the Islamic World  - destabilizes Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Kauravi 8/8

Waqar Khan Kauravi, a defence analyst specializing in peace and conflict studies. “Syria: Powder keg of sectarianism”. The Pakistan Observer. August 8, 2011.

http://pakobserver.net/detailnews.asp?id=109664

But Syria politically aligned 

AND

the Middle East could become another nightmare.

Pakistan instability causes Indo-Pak war and nuclear terror.

Brookes 7 – senior fellow @ Heritage

Peter, sr. fellow @ the heritage foundation, August 2, pg. http://www.nypost.com/seven/08022007/postopinion/opedcolumnists/baracks_blunder_opedcolumnists_peter_brookes.htm?page=2

The fall of Musharraf's government 

AND

including the United States.

Indo-Pak conflict causes billions of deaths.

Robock and Toon 10 – prof of climatology @ Rutgers

Dr. Alan Robock is a professor of climatology in the Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers University and the associate director of its Center for Environmental Prediction. Prof. Robock has been a researcher in the area of climate change for more than 30 years.. His current research focuses on soil moisture variations, the effects of volcanic eruptions on climate, effects of nuclear war on climate, and regional atmosphere/hydrology modeling. He has served as Editor of climate journals, including the Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology and the Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. He has published more than 250 articles on his research, including more than 150 peer-reviewed papers and Owen Brian Toon is professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and a fellow at the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) at the University of Colorado.[1] He received his Ph.D. from Cornell University. “Local Nuclear War, Global Suffering”. Scientific American, 00368733, Jan2010, Vol. 302, Issue 1. Academic Search Premier

Why discuss this topic now that the 

AND

or between other regional nuclear powers.

***Axis Adv 1AC***

Advantage: Axis

Ousting Assad isn’t enough—Iran will assist the opposition to maintain its axis

Javedanfar 8/13

Meir Javedanfar, is an Iranian-Israeli Middle East analyst and co-author of The Nuclear Sphinx of Tehran: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the State of Iran. “Khamenei won't support Assad to the end”. August 13, 2011. The Guardian. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/aug/13/khamenei-support-assad

Despite the closeness between 

AND

members of the Syrian opposition. 

And, Iran is preparing for a post-Assad Syria to insure its strategic interests – it will maintain its Axis will Hezbollah.

Dorsey 9/8

James M. Dorsey is a Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University. “Is Iran Turning Its Back On Syria? – Analysis”. Eurasia Review. September 8, 2011. http://www.eurasiareview.com/08092011-is-iran-turning-its-back-on-syria-analysis/

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s staunchest ally, Iran, is 

AND

with close ties to Khamenei.

Accelerating the collapse is essential – the longer he stays in power Iran gains power and weakens US influence in the region

Hannah ‘11

John Hannah is currently a senior fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies. John served on former Vice President Dick Cheney's national security affairs staff from 2001-2009. “Countering Syria’s Lebanese power play”. June 30, 2011. Shadow Government Blog @ Foreign Policy. http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/06/30/countering_syria_s_lebanese_power_play

With both international and domestic nooses 

AND

advised to take note and act accordingly.

The Axis of Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah threatens all U.S. interests in the Middle East – oil supply, proliferation, terrorism, and instability, as well as continued U.S. influence.

Doran ’11 – Professor at NYU school of Public Service

Michael Scott Doran, a Visiting Professor at the Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service at New York University. He is a former Senior Director for the Middle East at the National Security Council and a former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense. “The Heirs of Nasser: Who Will Benefit From the Second Arab Revolution?”. Foreign Affairs. New York: May/Jun 2011. Vol. 90, Iss. 3; pg. 17. ProQuest.

In navigating the crosscurrents 

AND

to the overarching goal of containment.

Iran is becoming a regional hegemon – the collapse of Egypt and the Sunni counterweight, has set the stage for regional conflicts that escalate to nuclear use – only U.S. influence in the region can prevent conflict.

London ‘10

Herbert London is president of Hudson Institute and professor emeritus of New York University. “The Coming Crisis In The Middle East”. The Hudson Institute. June 28, 2010. http://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east

The coming storm in the Middle East 

AND

looks to with imperial exhilaration.

 Decline in Hegemony causes multiple great power wars

Kagan 8--senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Robert, “End of Dreams, Return of History”, To Lead the World, 2008, p. 44-5.

People who believe that a multipolar order would 

AND

or a retraction of  American influence and global involvement will provide an easier path. 

Plan:

The United States federal government should increase its support for opposition to the government of Bashar Al-Assad

The U.S. should start an active dialogue with the opposition and provide assistance to the Syrian opposition – providing training will be credible to establishing a credible opposition. 

Karlin and Tabler ‘11

Mara E. Karlin was Levant Director at the Pentagon in 2006-7 and Special Assistant to the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy in 2007-9. Andrew J. Tabler is Next Generation Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Washington should plan for a post-Assad Syria”. May 26, 2011. Foreign Affairs. http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/05/26/washington-should-plan-for-a-post-assad-syria/

As the United States works to 

AND

most problematic regional adversaries.

The U.S. must help support Syrian opposition to expedite the collapse of Assad and foster peaceful transition – the alternative is bloody civil war. 

Hannah ‘11

John Hannah is currently a senior fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies. John served on former Vice President Dick Cheney's national security affairs staff from 2001-2009. “Obama and Syria: Courting Disaster”. May 11, 2011. Shadow Government Blog @ Foreign Policy. http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/05/11/obama_and_syria_courting_disaster

Instead, the administration needs 

AND

stand in the first post-Assad elections.

Narratives of foreign intervention will by the Regime inevitable – by facilitating the end to the Assad regime the U.S. will demonstrate they are not putting Israel’s security concerns above the Syrian people – the U.S. is uniquely position to provide assistance for a transition to a democratic and allied Syria.

Weiss and Stuart ‘11

Michael Weiss, director of communications at the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank that promotes democratic geopolitics, and Hannah Stuart. The Henry Jackson Society. “The Syrian opposition: Political analysis with original testimony from key figures”. June 6, 2011. http://www.henryjacksonsociety.org/stories.asp?id=2221

The Syrian opposition is the most Western-friendly movement 

AND

can be recognised by the international community.

A unified Syrian opposition is critical to convincing those sitting on the fence to abandon Assad, encourage defections of the regime’s main supporters, and stop an armed rebellion.

Seelye 9/1

Kate Seelye is vice president of the Middle East Institute and a former NPR correspondent based in the Middle East. “Why Can't the Syrian Opposition Get Along?”. September 1, 2011. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/09/01/why_cant_the_syrian_opposition_get_along

The reasons for the Syrian opposition's inability to 

AND

uprising remains little more than a distant hope.

The U.S. democracy assistance to Syria is develop democratic institutions and political infrastructure, and provide a robust civil society – its key to avoid civil war and regional hegemons interference.

Al-Assad 8/10 

Ribal Al-Assad is Director of the Organization for Democracy and Freedom in Syria. “The struggle for Syria”. August 10, 2011. CNN’s Global Public Square Blog. http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/10/the-struggle-for-syria/

As the violence in Syria mounts, the 

AND

be a force for stability throughout the region.

U.S. action is key – no other actor can solve.

Kessler 8/18

Oren Kessler. “Turkey: Syrian situation may become Libya-style civil war”. August 18, 2011. The Jerusalem Post. http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=234226

Michael Singh, a former Middle East,

AND

 not the UN Security Council. That’s what we’re not seeing.”