Plan: The United States federal government should provide support for transparent democratic governance in Libya.

1AC Liberal Internationalism

Advantage __: Liberal Internationalism

The U.S. must capitalize on the momentum of the “Arab Spring” to reverse a decade of authoritarian momentum – failure emboldens Russia, China, and Iran to behave aggressively and challenge the liberal international order.

Puddington ‘11

Arch Puddington, researcher at Freedom House, responsible for preparation of Freedom in the World reports. September 2011. “Democracy’s Stake in the Arab Spring”. Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs. Vol. 5, No. 3. online: http://israelcfr.com/documents/5-3/5-3-3-ArchPuddington.pdf

To be effective,

freedom everywhere else.

The US needs to take the lead and aggressively support democracy in Libya – anything else is perceived as managing decline and turning its back on global democracy.

Hamid 10/1

Shadi Hamid, Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center. “What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring”. October 1, 2011. http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/1001_obama_hamid.aspx

Throughout the Arab spring

“stable,” repressive regimes.

Successful Libyan transition key to US image—overwhelms aftermath of military mission

Feaver '11

Peter, Professor of Political Science at Duke, director of the Triangle Institute for Security Studies, PhD in Government from Harvard, Member of NSC during Bush and Clinton administrations "Five Reasons it is Premature to Declare Mission Accomplished for Obama's Libya Strategy ," 8/22/11  shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/22/five_reasons_it_is_premature_to_declare_mission_accomplished_for_obamas_libya_strat AD 1/22/12

3. Because this operation

is what comes after.

The plan is key – it reinvigorates our national strategy in line with our traditional values.

Lajeunesse ‘11

Gabriel Lajeunesse, Writer, Advocate. “The Arab Spring and the Illusion of a Pragmatic Approach to Foreign Policy”. October 12, 2011. The Huffington Post.

As Arab Spring

African, or Asian Spring.

Outsourcing our support for democracy in Libya allows Russia, China, and Iran to advance authoritarianism – causes regional conflicts that risk great power war – only U.S. support for democracy can challenge their ideology.

Grygiel ‘11

Dr. Jakub Grygiel is a Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and the George H.W. Bush Senior Associate Professor of International Relations at Johns Hopkins-SAIS. “Great Powers and Democracy Promotion”. October 3, 2011. Central Europe Digest. http://www.cepa.org/ced/view.aspx?record_id=319

Now that the President is

democracy and human rights.

Support for democratic movements is critical to securing a liberal international order – critical to dampen international conflicts and solve resource and environmental conflicts – only the U.S. can ensure success.

Ikenberry ’11 – Professor of Politics and International Affairs @ Princeton

G. John Ikenberry, the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University. “A World of Our Making”. Democracy A Journal of Ideas. Issue #21, Summer 2011. http://www.democracyjournal.org/21/a-world-of-our-making-1.php?page=1

This spring’s dramatic

to its long-term security.

Resource scarcity and environmental conflicts will escalate globally.

De Souza 11

Mike, National affairs reporter; BA from Concordia University, “Energy-starved future looms, military warns” Postmedia News 4/18 http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Energy+starved+future+looms+military+warns/4634442/story.html

The planet is running

highest potential impacts

A U.S. liberal leadership is critical to effective international institutions and cooperation that solves all global problems and great power conflict – there is no effective alternative.

Kromah 9

(Lamii Moivi Kromah, Department of International Relations University of the Witwatersrand, February 2009, “The Institutional Nature of U.S. Hegemony: Post 9/11”, http://wiredspace.wits.ac.za/bitstream/handle/10539/7301/MARR%2009.pdf)

A final major gain

measure of international security. 57

Nuclear War

Dyer 4

Gwynne, in Military and History at  

Toronto Star, The End of War, 12/30/04, http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1230-05.htm

War is deeply embedded

existing state system.

Independently, renewed Russian aggression threatens global nuclear war.

Blank 9

Dr. Stephen Blank, Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College. March 2009. “Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?,” online: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf

Proliferators or nuclear

or their own people.172

And, their impact defense no longer applies.

Palmer 1/12

Alex Palmer. “Russia Rising”. January 12, 2012. Harvard International Review. http://hir.harvard.edu/politics-of-disease/russia-rising?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+HarvardInternationalReview+%28Harvard+International+Review%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

At a time of

winter comes a new spring.

Stability Adv

The NTC’s credibility is on the brink – militias are gaining strength and protesters are demanding transperancy.

Stephen 1/28

Christopher Stephen reported from the Libyan war for The Guardian. “The Lesson of Bani Walid”. January 28, 2012. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/27/the_lesson_of_bani_walid?page=full

This minor uprising

, as army chief of staff.

And, the lack of democratic legitimacy allows militias to buck pressure to disarm and integrate – the result will be a new civil war.

Maxwell 1/17

James Maxwell, Egypt and Libya analyst, holds two degrees from the University of Glasgow , an MA (Hons) in Politics and an MSc in Legal and Political Thought. He has a particular interest in liberal political theory and its critiques, left nationalism and theories of uneven development. His work has appeared in The Independent, The Times, The New Statesman, and Bella Caledonia. 1/17/12. “Libya’s Militia Problem”. http://thinkafricapress.com/libya/militia-problem

On January 1, a militia

mutually-agreed set of regulations.

And, technical assistance and training is essential to building transparent and credible institutions – that allows for successful disarming and reintegration of militias.

ICG 12/14

International Crisis Group, independent non-profit NGO. “Holding Libya Together: Security Challenges After Qadhafi”. Middle East/North Africa Report N°1. 15 – 14 December 2011. http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/North%20Africa/115%20Holding%20Libya%20Together%20--%20Security%20Challenges%20after%20Qadhafi.pdf

In principle, there

to get moving again.

Africa Impact

Libyan instability will spillover throughout Africa causing failed states.

Ignatieff 10/24

Michael Ignatieff is the Carr Professor and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard. 10/24/2011. Reuters. “Libya’s revolution pushes democracy forward”. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/24/idUS413846800520111024

All across the Middle

Qaeda in the Magrheb.

Great power war.

Yoo 5

John, Professor of Law, University of California at Berkeley School of Law, Failed States, Int’l Colloquium, Online

Failed states pose

problem of failed states.

African is strategically vital – even regional wars threaten global escalation.

Glick 7 – senior ME Fellow @ Center for Security Policy in Washington DC

Caroline B. Glick, the senior Middle East fellow at the Center for Security Policy in Washington, D.C., The Center for Security Policy is a non-profit, non-partisan national security organization. 12/11/2007. “Condi's African holiday”. http://www.carolineglick.com/e/2007/12/condis-african-holiday.php?pf=yes

The Horn of Africa

and global powers.

The U.S. is providing assistance to now to secure missing MANPADS – demobilization of the militias is key to effectiveness.

Brannen 2/12

Kate Brannen. “U.S. Still Hunting for Missing Libyan MANPADS”. February 2, 2012. Defense News.  http://www.defensenews.com/article/20120202/DEFREG02/302020009/U-S-Still-Hunting-Missing-Libyan-MANPADS?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|FRONTPAGE

The U.S. State

dollars ($1.6 million).

MANPADs Impact

MANPADS proliferation causes Afghan instability and takeover.

Drwiega 12/6

Andrew Drwiega is a senior defence journalist with a particular focus on military rotorcraft. He was the editor of Defence Helicopter for seven years. Andrew has reported on attachment from Iraq three times. “Libya’s MANPADs Legacy”. Aviation Today. December 6, 2011. http://www.aviationtoday.com/rw/training/military/Libyas-MANPADs-Legacy_75305.html

It has always

Karzai government.

Causes Indo-Pak war that goes nuclear.

Foust ‘9

Joshua Foust, He’s spent the vast majority of his adult life doing defense and intelligence consulting.  In addition to writing for Registan.net, Joshua is a fellow at the American Security Project. He is also a columnist for PBS Need to Know. His writing has appeared in The Atlantic, The New York Times, Reuters, The Christian Science Monitor, The Columbia Journalism Review, and World Politics Review. “The Case for Afghanistan: Strategic Considerations”. 8/27/2009. http://www.registan.net/index.php/2009/08/27/the-case-for-afghanistan-strategic-considerations/

But this is

and do things right.

Solvency

Contention __: Solvency

The U.S. must provide technical assistance during the transition – critical to stability and reversing the perception of lead from behind – they will say yes.

Engel 11/2

Andrew Engel, a former research assistant at The Washington Institute, is a Beirut-based analyst who recently traveled across Libya. “Libya's Post-Qadhafi Challenges”. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. PolicyWatch #1866. November 2, 2011. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3417

Libya's challenges are immense

state with Islamic values.

U.S. governance assistance is key – uniquely positioned and experience means only the U.S. has a chance to be effective.

Vandewalle ‘11

Dirk Vandewalle, Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College. “The Reconstruction of Libya Local and International Constraints and Opportunities”. Testimony before the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee Washington, D.C. 6 April 2011. http://foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Vandewalle%20Testimony.pdf

The United States

can truly subscribe to.

Studies prove U.S. democracy assistance solves civil conflict

Savun and Tirone ‘11

Burcu Savun is Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh,  Daniel C. Tirone is a Ph.D. Candidate in the Department of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh, “ Foreign Aid, Democratization, and Civil Conflict: How Does Democracy Aid Affect Civil Conflict”. American Journal of Political Science. Volume 55, Issue 2, pages 233–246, April 2011.

Scholars of intrastate

early phases of democratization.

Plan: The United States federal government should provide support for transparent democratic governance for Egypt.

Advantage 1: Biodiversity

Corruption threatens environmental infrastructure- rule of law and accountability is key to reduce bribery, wildlife trafficking, and poor enforcement

Winbourne ‘2

(Svetlana, Technical Director @ Management Systems International, this paper was part of a substantial contribution to a USAID-sponsored anti-corruption cross-sectoral study that directly supported the drafting of the new USAID Anti-Corruption Strategy, “Corruption and the Environment”, November 2002, pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNACT876.pdf)

This paper examines public sector … to promote citizen intolerance to corruption.

Anti-corruption key to the Egyptian environment- only way to enforce environmental legislation, create oversight, and stop resource depletion

Wardam ‘11

(Batir, Editor of Arab Environment Watch, 10 years working experience in Academic institutions, Non-Governmental Organizations, international environmental organizations (UNDP, IUCN, UNEP, World Bank, etc..), government and media institutions, “The Environmental Dimensions of Arab Revolutions”, February 28, 2011, http://bwardam.wordpress.com/2011/02/28/the-environmental-dimensions-of-arab-revolutions/)

Egypt, the heart of the Arab world was engulfed … in each Arab country in the coming weeks and months.

Development aid now solves environmental capacity- enforcement is key

UK Trade and Investment ‘10

(“Environment Opportunities in Egypt”, www.ukti.gov.uk/download/112456_101939/Environment%2520Sector%2520in%2520Egypt.html)

Egypt has seen various aid programmes … enforcement of environmental laws.

Egypt has a unique geographical position at the juncture of three continents that makes protecting its biodiversity of vital importance

Barakat 10

Environmental voices: Biodiversity our key to life

Hala Barakat  Sun, 17/10/2010 -

From a biodiversity point of view, … This is life, this is biodiversity.”

Egyptian biodiversity on the brink of vanishing completely now due to lack of adherence to environmental protection laws

Shalaby et al. 8/30/11

M. Y. Shalaby, K. H. Al-Zahrani, M. B. Baig, G. S. Straquadine and F. Aldosari, Journal of Animal and Plant Sciences, “THREATS AND CHALLENGES TO SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT IN EGYPT: IMPLICATIONS FOR AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION”, Vol. 21 No. 3

Threats and Challenges in Agriculture and Rural Areas… will in turn adversely affect the land qualities.

Scenario 1: Migratory birds

Egypt is the critical lynchpin to protecting vital migratory birds and global ecosystems

Barakat 11

Environmental Voices: Migratory birds threatened in Egypt

Hala Barakat   Mon, 27/12/2010 - 13:06  

During their migration these large, … and only covers a small part of the bottleneck crucial for bird migration.

Migratory birds are in danger in Egypt- it’s irreversible

Barakat 11

Environmental Voices: Migratory birds threatened in Egypt

Hala Barakat   Mon, 27/12/2010 - 13:06  

The situation at Gebel al-Zeit is just one case where … the price to be paid will be very high.

Egypt’s Nile Delta is vital to protect  global biodiversity

National Geographic Society 01

For about a billion birds that fly from Europe … just Egypt but for much of the world.

The newest comprehensive studies show preserving biodiversity is key to prevent extinction

ScienceDaily (Aug. 14, 2011)

Biodiversity Key to Earth's Life-Support Functions in a Changing World

In an international research group led by Prof. Dr. Michel Loreau from Canada, … crucial factor in maintaining Earth's life-support functions.

The loss of global biodiversity outweighs other threats because of its irreversability

Chen 2k

Professor of Law at University of Minnesota and Dean of Law School at Louisville, 2K (Jim, Globalization and Its Losers:, 9  Minn. J. Global Trade 157’ LexisNexis Legal)

Conscious decisions to allow the … - in ten mil- lion years, perhaps a hundred million.348

The most recent studies conclude that preserving biodiversity is more important than previously thought and we should err on the side of preserving as much as possible

ScienceDaily (Aug. 19, 2011)

Biodiversity Critical for Maintaining Multiple 'Ecosystem Services'

By combining data from 17 of the …. as possible could be a good precautionary approach."

Scenario 2: Fungi

Egypt is failing in protection of fungi now

Soliman & Abdel-Azeem 11

Gihan Samy Soliman and Ahmed Abdel-Azeem, Ph.D. 8-21-11  

Conservation of biodiversity in a developing … such as the one below – don’t contain any trace of them.

Egypt is critical to the preservation of vital fungi

Ahmed M. Abdel-Azeem 10

The history, fungal biodiversity, conservation, and future perspectives for mycology in Egypt 

IMA FUNgUs · vOlUME 1 · NO 2: 123–14

It is generally accepted that only about  … In spite of this the AUMC is not yet registered with the WFCC.

Fungi are critical to life on Earth

Soliman & Abdel-Azeem 11

Gihan Samy Soliman and Ahmed Abdel-Azeem, Ph.D. 8-21-11  

Meanwhile, in Egypt, the National Biodiversity Unit (… concerned about the issue of education and biodiversity among other concerns as citizenship.

Fungi in Egypt have global impact

Ahmed M. Abdel-Azeem 10

The history, fungal biodiversity, conservation, and future perspectives for mycology in Egypt 

IMA FUNgUs · vOlUME 1 · NO 2: 123–14

The Egyptian fungi are presently represented by 2 281 taxa (… of fungi in unexplored areas remains a priority.

Protection of Fungi is key to global survival

Minter 10

Dr David Minter, Chair of IUCN's Cup Fungi, Truffles and their Allies Specialist Group

A future for fungi - the orphans of Rio

06 October 2010  

It's difficult to over-emphasize … themselves being in need of protection. In many countries there is no explicit legal protection for fungi.

Solvency

Only the U.S. has the expertise and experience for developing effective park protection assistance

Lapham 04

Nicholas, Vice President for policy at Conservation International, Senior Program Officer for environment at the UN Foundation, and Senior Adviser to the White House Climate Change Task Force under President Clinton." In, Rising Stakes in Africa:  Seven Proposals to Strengthen U.S. Africa Policy  A Report of the Africa Policy Advisory Panel- Center For Strategic and International Studies  p. 91

No country is better positioned to help … to different political systems, cultures, and economies.

Anti-corruption is a pre-requisite to effective foreign aid- only the US has the infrastructure

Diamond, ‘8

(Larry, Senior fellow at the Hoover Institute “End Foreign Aid As We Know It,” Democracy Journal, No 8, Spring 2008, http://www.democracyjournal.org/8/6584.php)

But these new principles still govern only a small proportion of overall … assistance projects, and thus slow to send money.

US is the anti-corruption leader- most effective in creating partnerships

Donnelly ‘11

(Shaun, former USTR for the Middle East and Europe, “The Neglected Pillar: America’s Economic Agenda in the Middle East,” 6-22-11, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3373)

Fighting corruption. Citizens across the … with American and local NGOs and business groups, along with strong policy advocacy.

Underview

Representations of ecological extinction and resource conflict are the only way to motivate limits on consumption

Heinberg 7 - Senior Fellow of the Post Carbon Institute

Richard, “Peak Everything,” Google Book

Is it possible, now and quickly, to … But all of this will have to happen very quickly.

Portraying eco-damage as ‘extinction-level’ is a crucial communication act that forestalls complete extinction – it solves their turn because it sparks a new social ethic

Epstein and Zhao 9 – Lab of Medicine @ Hong Kong

Richard J. Epstein and Y. Zhao ‘9 – Laboratory of Computational Oncology, Department of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, The Threat That Dare Not Speak Its Name; Human Extinction, Perspectives in Biology and Medicine Volume 52, Number 1, Winter 2009, Muse

Final ends for all species are the same, … all too often dismiss as “human nature” (Tudge 1989). [End Page 122] 

Scientific models support finitude

Bardi 11 – Professor of Physical Sciences

Ugo Bardi, “The Limits to Growth Revisited,” Springer Energy Analysis, Google Book

It has been said – correctly – that prediction … It may be time to revisit the LTG story and to learn from our previous mistakes.

Government action is necessary. Alternatives like anarchy, localism, spirituality, and eco-centrism will get squashed and worsen current destruction

Taylor 2k – Professor of Social Ethics

Bron, Professor of Religion & Social Ethics, Director of Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh, BENENEATH THE SURFACE: CRITICAL ESSAYS IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF DEEP ECOLOGY, P. 282-284

A more trenchant problem is how bioregionalists (and the … experiments and models will be overwhelmed and futile.

Problem-solution focus is necessary – environmental concerns are persistent and require government responses

Mintz 4 – Professor of Law

Joel Mintz, Prof. of Law, Nova Southeastern Univ. and Scholar at Center for Progressive Regulation; 2004, Boston College Environmental Affairs Law Review “SOME THOUGHTS ON THE MERITS OF PRAGMATISM AS A GUIDE TO ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION,” 31 B.C. Envtl. Aff. L. Rev. 1, HeinOnline

To this observer, pragmatism—and more specifically … such long-range solutions are all too rarely contended for by environmental legal writers.

Must evaluate consequences – the alternative is moral absolutism that generates evil

Isaac ‘2—Professor of Political Science at Indiana-Bloomington

Jeffery C., Director of the Center for the Study of Democracy and Public Life, PhD from Yale  Dissent Magazine, Vol. 49, Iss. 2, “Ends, Means, and Politics,” p. Proquest.

As a result, the most important political questions are simply … And it undermines political effectiveness.

*Assad*

Assad collapse is inevitable – protests, defections, and sanctions.

Zakaria 12/1

Fareed Zakaria. “Zakaria: Why I now think Assad will fall”. December 1, 2011. http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/01/zakaria-why-i-now-think-assad-will-fall/

Earlier this year, I thought the …this regime is going to collapse after all.

Assad Collapse inevitable—Zabadani capture, defections, financial resources

Olmert 1/19--Adjunct Professor, University of South Carolina

Josef, How Assad Is Losing http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-josef-olmert/assad-syria-rebels_b_1217154.html

The situation in Zabadani proves … if it is Zabadani will ensure itself a prominent Place in the annals of modern Syria.

*Civil War Adv*

Assad’s collapse is inevitable – signs of a violent revolt and civil war are mounting – The plan is key to have a controlled collapse—the alternative is a bloody civil war

Yacoubian ‘11

Mona Yacoubian is a senior program officer for the Middle East at the U.S. Institute of Peace. In November, she will join the Henry L. Stimson Center. “Saving Syria from civil war”. October 5, 2011. Foreign Policy. http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/10/05/saving_syria_from_civil_war

As Syria's uprising lurches toward its …, rejuvenating the opposition without spurring further violence.

Sectarian conflict in Syria will spillover throughout the region causing instability and Saudi-Iran– new sectarian conflict will escalate – each side is backed by a nervous regional power.

Nasr ‘11 – Professor of Politics at Tufts University

Vali Nasr is professor at Tufts University, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and the author of “The Shia Revival: How Conflicts Within Islam Will Shape the Future.”. August 27, 2011. “If the Arab Spring Turns Ugly”. The New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/opinion/sunday/the-dangers-lurking-in-the-arab-spring.html?pagewanted=all

Syria today stands at the edge of such an upheaval… voices on both sides would gain. In Bahrain, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, it is already happening.

New conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia will escalate and draw-in the U.S. – your old impact defense doesn’t apply.

Birnbaum ‘11

Ben Birnbaum. The Washington Times. “Purported plot on envoy pushes Iranians, Saudis closer to brink”. October 18, 2011. http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/oct/18/purported-plot-on-envoy-pushes-iranians-saudis-clo/?page=1

The 3-decade-old cold war between Iran and … TV coverage of this past week, they’ve been almost giddy because this vindicates their narrative about Iran.”

Middle East conflict goes global and nuclear.

Primakov ‘9 - Doctor of Economics, Professor, executive member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Head of the Center for Situational Analysis at the Russian Academy of Sciences

Yevgeny Primakov is President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation; Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences; member of the Editorial Board of Russia in Global Affairs. The Fundamental Conflict: The Middle East Problem in the Context of International Relations. Russia in Global Affairs Vol 7 No 3. 2009. http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/105702/ichaptersection_singledocument/71a40dca-23cb-411d-9c5d-a7ce495e2522/en/12.pdf

The Middle East conflict is unparalleled … It seems that President Obama’s position does not completely rule out such a possibility.

New conflict will escalate.

Singh ‘11

Michael Singh, managing director of The Washington Institute and a former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council.. “What has really changed in the Middle East?”. Shadow Government. September 22, 2011. Shadow Government Blog @ Foreign Policy. http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/22/what_has_really_changed_in_the_middle_east

Third, and most troubling, the Middle East is … which would shift any contest for regional primacy into overdrive.

And, Syria is a unique situation – it would escalate globally.

Bacik 10/16

Gokahn Bacik. “Vying for Syria: Will the Cold War really end this time?”. October 16, 2011. Today’s Zaman. http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist-260013--vying-for-syria-will-the-cold-war-really-end-this-time.html

Russia and China recently vetoed a …generate existential outcomes for other states.

U.S. leadership is key – only the U.S. can balance competing regional powers and prevent a conflict from escalating.

Badran 9/22

Tony Badran, Research Fellow @ Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “Axis of Abuse: U.S. Human Rights toward Iran and Syria, Part II”. Hearing before House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia. September 22, 2011. http://www.defenddemocracy.org/stuff/uploads/documents/Badran_Testimony_FINAL_9_21.pdf

Balancing Regional Agendas As a New York Times report … to US interests and a boost to the Iranian bloc.

*Iran Adv*

Obama’s Syria policy abdicates U.S. leadership – even if Assad falls Iran will work to ensure its regional influence – only U.S. action can ensure successful transition and regional hegemony.

Doran 12/13

Michael Doran, Roger Hertog Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy. “United States Policy in Syria: Masterful Inaction?”. Up Front Blog. Brookings Institute. December 13, 2011. http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/1213_syria_doran.aspx?rssid=middle+east+unrest&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BrookingsRSS%2Ftopics%2Fmiddleeastunrest+%28Brookings%3A+Topics+-+The+Arab+Spring+and+Middle+East+Unrest%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

Salman Sheikh and I look at the rise and fall ... If Washington does not join the game, it is unlikely to win.

U.S. assistance to opposition is critical to an alliance with a post-Assad regime to cripple Hezbollah and encircle Iran.

Nassar ‘11

Galal Nassar. “Superpower checkmate”. July 6, 2011. Al-Ahram. http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1054/op2.htm

But what are the ramifications and possible … beat back Tehran's influence and facilitate the encirclement of Iran.

Failure of U.S. to challenge and limit Iranian hegemony will cause U.S. hegemonic decline globally.

Etzioni ‘11

Amitai Etzioni is a professor of international relations at George Washington University and author of Security First: For a Muscular, Moral Foreign Policy. “The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility”. March-April 2011. Military Review. http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf

As of the beginning of 2011, these Sunni … and live up to its commitments overseas.

Heg decline results in global conflict—successors won’t fill in and multiple hotspots escalate

Brzezinski 12—Professor of Foreign Policy @ Johns Hopkins

Zbigniew, After America, Foreign Policy, Jan/Dec 2012, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/03/after_america?page=0,0

For if America falters, the world is unlikely to be dominated … vision for its foreign policy -- or start bracing itself for a dangerous slide into global turmoil.

Hezbollah is increasing in Southeast Asia and will attack the Strait of Malacca.

Levitt 1/18

Matthew Levitt is director of The Washington Institute's Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence. “Hizballah Poised to Strike in Southeast Asia”. January 18, 2012. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3443

Hizballah in Southeast Asia In … accomplice were almost certainly overseeing.

An attack on the strait will be an LNG attack

Turkish Weekly 10

The Straits of Malacca Under the Threat of a Maritime Terrorist Attack, 24 March 2010 http://www.turkishweekly.net/op-ed/2646/the-straits-of-malacca-under-the-threat-of-a-maritime-terrorist-attack.html

The nexus of piracy and terrorism is … where ample strategic positioning is conducive for the attacks.

LNG accidents cause extinction

Lovins 1

Lovins and Lovins, “Brittle Power,”. 200. http://www.rmi.org/images/other/EnergySecurity/S82-03_BrPwrParts123.pdf)

LNG is less than half as dense as water, so a … megaton of TNT, or about fifty-five Hiroshima bombs.

A terror attack on the straits of Malacca threatens world trade

Roell 9--President Institute for Strategic- Political- Security- and Economic Consultancy

Peter, Maritime Terrorism – A Threat to World Trade? Statement by Dr. Peter Roell at the International Conference on Comprehensive Security in the Asia-Pacific Region, organised by Asian Political & International Studies Association (APISA) and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in collaboration with the Keio University,

30 Nov - 1 Dec 2009, Tokyo, Japan

The strategically important Straits of …In conclusion: Yes, world trade is potentially threatened by maritime terrorism.

Free trade solves nuclear war

Copley News Service 99

12/1/99. Lexis.

For decades, many children in America and other … be protesting world trade. They should be celebrating it.

*Plan*

The United States federal government should provide technical assistance for the democratic opposition to Bashar Al-Assad.

*Solvency*

Assad will collapse inevitably – U.S. support for the opposition is critical to peel off Assad’s minority support and encourage defections.

Phillips 1/19

James Phillips is Senior Research Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation. “Preparing for a Post-Assad Syria”. January 19, 2012. http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2012/01/us-policy-for-a-post-assad-syria

Washington should also explore whether … inclusive representative government than under the current regime.

U.S. assistance to the opposition would significantly boost the protest movement – only U.S. leadership and commitment can get segments of Syrian society to abandon Assad.

Brodsky ‘11

Matthew Brodsky, is director of policy for the Jewish Policy Center in Washington, DC and editor of the JPC's journal, inFOCUS Quarterly. “The US must ratchet up pressure on Syria”. November 4, 2011. The Guardian. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2011/nov/04/us-must-ratchet-up-pressure-syria

In August, President Obama finally called for Syria's leader, …and then wait to see what happens.

U.S. assistance is critical to unifying the opposition and swaying minority support for the regime.

Danin 1/23

Robert, is Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is a former Director for the Levant and Israeli-Palestinian Affairs at the National Security Council, How to Help Syria without Intervening Militarily, http://blogs.cfr.org/danin/2012/01/23/how-to-help-syria-without-intervening-militarily/

The Syrian opposition is clearly fractured … to the Syrian National Council, just as we did when the able diplomat Chris Stevens was assigned to work with the Libyan opposition in Benghazi.

U.S. assistance for political organization to key to unity alternative government.

Maalouf and Torbey 12/16

Marwan Maalouf, an international human rights lawyer who oversaw human rights and democracy promotion in the Middle East for Freedom House from 2009 to 2011, and Khattar Torbey, Khattar Torbey is an international lawyer and PhD candidate in Regional Integration in the Middle East at Kansas University. He has over 15 years of expertise in the fields of Middle East media, law, and politics. “Breaking the Stalemate in Syria”.

When the United States did move in support …community can play an important role in building the SNC’S organizational capacity.

The Arab observer mission is failing – only the U.S. can solve – regional powers are waiting for U.S. leadership.

Badran 1/2

Tony Badran. “What's Obama's Plan B after Arab League monitors?”. The Jerusalem Post. January 2, 2012. http://blogs.jpost.com/content/whats-obamas-plan-b-after-arab-league-monitors

The Arab League’s observer mission … Syria and still shape an outcome in line with its interests was never a realistic option.

Opposition is sufficiently unified – they are calling for assistance.

Gerecht and Dubowitz 11

Marc Gerecht, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and Mark Dubowitz, executive director of FDD. 9/1/11. “Obama, American liberator?” The Washington Post. http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/obama-american-liberator/2011/09/01/gIQA3e5HvJ_story.html

Nevertheless, President Obama used American … the way Arab Muslims see themselves. It may do the same for Barack Obama.