mcampbell09@gmail.com

KORUS will pass now

Reuters 9/13

Momentum builds for U.S. action on trade deals, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/13/us-usa-trade-deals-idUSTRE78C7QW20110913?feedType=RSS&feedName=domesticNews

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid on Tuesday said

AND

be passed in tandem with the trade pacts.

Plan drains political capital—no constituency, fear of Islamism

Hamid 11

Shadi, staff writer, Jewish World Review, Tunisia, Egypt, Arab world need bold US support for democracy, not mixed messages, http://www.jewishworldreview.com/0111/middle_east_democracy.php3

Considering the amount of resources invested in the

AND

the region are likely to make Americans uncomfortable.)

Capital is key

Reuters 9/2

Obama's trade legacy in a crucible this fall, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/02/us-usa-obama-trade-idUSTRE7814CZ20110902

In addition to the challenge from organized labor

AND

fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

KORUS Solves Korean war

USA Today 12-27

Trade deal with South Korea deserves rapid ratification, Lexis

Another argument for the trade deal with South

AND

be high on the Senate's agenda for 2011.

Asian instability triggers massive impacts – nuclear escalation, climate chaos, global agriculture, the economy, & causes prolif

Hamel-Green, Victory University Executive Dean,  & Hayes, Nautilus Institute Executive Director, 10

[Peter & Michael, 1-5-10, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia”, 1-5-10, , accessed 7-1-11]

The consequences of failing to address the proliferation

AND

air-transported materials could similarly be intercepted. 

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//

Text: The European Union should <<plan>>

The EU has pre-existing channels for effective, equal-partner democracy aid

Tocci and Cassarino ‘11

Nathalie Tocci is Deputy Director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali, Rome. Jean-Pierre Cassarino is parttime professor at the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, European University Institute, Florence, and scientific advisor at the Istituto Affari Internazionali, Rome “Rethinking the EU’s Mediterranean Policies Post-1/11” IAI WORKING PAPERS 11 | 06 – March 2011 www.iai.it/pdf/DocIAI/iaiwp1106.pdf, AD 9/13/11

The Arab revolts do not call for Europe

AND

the civil societies of the neighbouring countries too.

Text: The Government of Turkey should a substantial increase in the democracy assistance portions of Turkey’s military training program that promotes civil-military relations is modeled after the United States Expanded-International Military Education and Training programs to Egypt.  Turkey should reform its constitution for greater protection of due process, press freedom, and women and minority rights, and should maintain a parliamentary system of government.

Solves best – perceived as non-imperialist, builds greater trust and helps consolidate Turkish democracy

Kirişci 10

fellow with the Transatlantic Academy. He is a professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Boğaziçi University, Istanbul and holds a Jean Monnet Chair in European Integration. (Kemal, “Diffusing Liberal Market and Democratic Values: Assessing Turkey's 'Soft Power' in Transforming its Neighborhood,” APSA 2010 Annual Meeting Paper http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1644657) TIKA = Turkish International Cooperation and Development Agency

One striking aspect of Turkey’s transformed external relations

AND

that once looked at civil society with suspicion.

Alternative energy investment is high and growing – even in 2008 during the recession.

Sadorsky ‘11

Perry Sadorsky, Schulich School of Business, York University. “Correlations and volatility spillovers between oil prices and the stock prices of clean energy and technology companies”. Energy Economics Article in Press, Corrected Proof. 2011. Science Direct.

The renewable energy sector has, in the

AND

energy sector will double in approximately 7 years.

Sustained high oil prices is critical to development of alternative energy.

IBT ‘11

International Business Times. “Why lower Saudi oil prices kill alternative energy”. May 30, 2011. http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/154524/20110530/saudi-arabia-oil.htm

The biggest obstacle to alternative energy is money

AND

enormous upfront costs of developing alternative energy sources.

Renewable energy is key to avoid oil dependence, energy prices and warming

Baker ‘4

Mark, RadioFree Europe, ‘World: Rise In Oil Price Shifts Focus To Use of Renewable Resources,’ June 1,

http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2004/06/8a45b713-2c2e-4654-9579-e7cc4e081637.html

Some 2,900 delegates, including ministers

AND

governments must spend more on research and development.

Warming Tipping points coming soon – risk extinction

Hamilton 10 – Professor of Public Ethics @ ANU

Clive Hamilton, Professor of Public Ethics in Australia, 2010, “Requiem for a Species: Why We Resist the Truth About Climate Change,” pg. 1-2

One of the most striking features of the

AND

will enter a long struggle just to survive.

Escalating violence in the Middle East is at the heart of global oil price rises. Here are a litany of macro-economic uniqueness explanations. The operative term is RISK PREMIUM. It’s a link story we will go for in the 2NR and its based on the investor perception of instability in MENA

Seeking Alpha 11 (one of the world’s pre-eminent Finance Blogs), April 29, 2011http:seekingalpha.com/article/266755-increased-visibility-for-higher-oil-prices
Crude oil prices continue to rise and are
AND
appears to be on a secular upward trend.

Risk Premium is defined for investing as “The excess return on the risky asset that is the difference between expected return on risky assets and the return of risk-free assets.” Some of the best oil economists in the world suggest there’s a $15 to $20 per barrel risk premium on Oil Futures. This is ONLY a function of perception which the plan would shatter.

CNBC Asia Pacific April 6, 2011 (
More fodder for the oil bulls but bad
AND
will continue to exhibit risk to the upside."

Commodity speculation makes perception of stability the key issue.  When commodity brokers think a country in the Middle East is stable it halts the rise in oil prices and vice versa.  Plan tanks oil prices even if they don’t solve.

Garrett, dir of New Media at heatingoil.com, specializing in international energy markets and oil prices, April 8, 2011 (Josh, , pg. online)
Other industry leaders seemed less concerned about current
AND
oil and gasoline prices remains to be seen.

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////


//Democracy assistance is only transfer of funds, expertise and material related to institutions already working towards democracy.

Lappin ‘10

Richard Lappin, a PhD candidate at the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven in Belgium, He has participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE and Carter Center, visiting Scholar  at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade under the JoinEU-SEE programme. “What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation”. Central European Journal of International and Security Studies. Vol.4, No.1, May (2010). http://www.cejiss.org/sites/default/files/8.pdf

Democracy assistance can be most accurately defined as

AND

society groups, media groups and political parties.

E-IMET is not democracy assistance, it is security assistance – it seeks to promote democratic values not assist it developing it.

Pike ‘11

John Pike  Director of GlobalSecurity.org, defense information website. “Security Assistance Training Field Activity.” http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/agency/army/satfa.htm

The term "security assistance" applies to

AND

as role models for militaries in emerging democracies.

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//

THE AFFIRMATIVE IS A FUNDAMENTAL MISREADING OF POLITICS AND THE REPRODUCTION OF SOCIAL RELATIONS.  THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS THE ‘BIOPOLITICAL STATE’ THAT SEEKS TO MANAGE AND CONTROL POPULATIONS FOR THE SAKE OF POWER.  THE STATE AND CAPITAL MOVE HAND IN GLOVE—ONE CANNOT EXIST WITHOUT THE OTHER.  ONLY A TOTAL DISTANCE FROM THE MODERN STATE CAN ALLOW FOR THE DESTRUCTION OF CAPITAL.  OTHERWISE WHAT IS PUSHED OUT THE DOOR ONLY COMES BACK IN THROUGH THE WINDOW**

Meszaros 95

[Istavan, Prof. Emeritus at Sussex, Beyond Capital: Towards a Theory of Transition]P. 65

The modern state as the comprehensive political command

AND

with the ‘withering away’ of the state.

NEXT, THE REDUCTION OF CLASS TO A NEUTRAL LEVEL AMONG A LONG LIST OF OTHER OPPRESSIONS SUCH AS RACE AND GENDER, DESTROYS THE EMANCIPATORY POTENTIAL OF CLASS TO REACH ACROSS ALL LINES OF INDENTITY AND FORGE POLITICAL ACTION.  CLASS MUST BE RECOGNIZED AS QUALITATIVELY MORE IMPORTANT TO OVERCOME CAPITALIST OPPRESSION—OTHERWISE THE SYSTEM IS ABLE TO SATISFY DEMANDS ON GROUNDS OF FORMAL EQUALITY, DESTROYING ATTEMPTS TO OVERCOME CAPITALIST OPPRESSION***

gimenez 2001

[Martha, Prof. Of Sociology at CU Boulder, “Marxism and Class, Gender and Race”, Race Gender and Class, Vol. 8, p. online]

There are many competing theories of race,

AND

grounded in "intersectionality" is class power.

Vote Negative to validate and adopt the method of structural/historical criticism that is the 1NC.

THIS IS NOT THE ALTERNATIVE, BUT IN TRUTH THE ONLY OPTION— METHOD IS THE FOREMOST POLITICAL QUESTION BECAUSE ONE MUST UNDERSTAND THE EXISTING SOCIAL TOTALITY BEFORE ONE CAN ACT ON IT—GROUNDING THE SITES OF POLITICAL CONTESTATION OR KNOWLEDGE OUTSIDE OF LABOR AND SURPLUS VALUE MERELY SERVE TO HUMANIZE CAPITAL AND PREVENT A TRANSITION TO A SOCIETY BEYOND OPPRESSION

tumino 2001

[Stephen, Prof English at Pitt, ““What is Orthodox Marxism and Why it Matters Now More than Ever”, Red Critique, p. online]

Any effective political theory will have to do

AND

knowledge work") that masquerades as social theory.

1NC
The U.S. AAA Credit rating has been stabilized now because of perceptions that the U.S. is committed to deficit reduction
Bernard   9-08-11
Stephen analyst for DOW JONES NEWSWIRES   DBRS Initiates Rating On US Government At AAA, Stable Outlook
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110908-714692.html
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)Seeing the opportunity …. to DBRS's expansion plans.
Unexpected federal spending causes credit rating downgrade
Kelley 9/13
Karen, Senior Managing Director of Invesco 8-11-11, Web 9-13-11 https://www.invesco.ca/publicPortal/ShowDoc?nodePath=/BEA%20Repository/common/document/pdf/Deficits_Debt_Ceiling.pdf
The Budget Control Act of …beyond what is currently expected.

Credit downgrade collapse the economy
Gingery 9-1-11
Phil, Reprentative from Georgia and MD  http://economiccrisis.us/2011/09/real-economic-recovery-demands-balanced-budget-amendment/
For the first time in our country’s … by politicians in the future.
Economic collapse causes global nuclear war
Mead 9—Senior Fellow in US Foreign Policy Studies @ Council on Foreign Relations
Walter Russell, Only Makes You Stronger, The New Republic, 2-4-09, http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=1
The greatest danger both to U.S.-China … track, we may still have to fight.

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//

1NC

Boehner preventing currency from passing—otherwise it would pass with overwhelming majorities

Blankley 10/20

“Washington Considers Foolish China Trade War” [http://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/tony-blankley/2011/10/20/washington-considers-foolish-china-trade-war]

Of course, these are only the opening

AND

a bill if it got to his desk.

Boehner is barely holding the line now- House Republicans are the wild card and can override him on a discharge petition if more break ranks and he doesn’t have the PC to reign them in

Hughes 10/6

(Siobhan, , of Dow Jones News Wires, “UPDATE:On Currency Bill, Rank-And-File Republicans Buck GOP Leaders,” http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20111006-713089.html)

Rank-and-file House Republicans are

AND

a new U.S. currency policy.

Congress opposes aid—seen as wasteful spending and is partisan

Rogin 11

Josh, staff writer, Foreign Policy, This Fight Ain't Over, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/04/this_fight_aint_over?page=0,8

The November 2010 midterm elections, which brought

AND

the country heads into the 2012 presidential season.

Recent arms sales to Taiwan put relations at the brink – passage would kill relations, increase unemployment, cause a trade war, and send the global economy back into recession

Martina 10-10

Michael Martina, 10-10-2011, “China: Currency law would hurt U.S. jobs growth,” http://news.yahoo.com/china-u-vote-currency-bill-result-trade-war-083939139.html

BEIJING (Reuters) - China warned the

AND

its centuries-old sovereignty over the waters.

Collapse of relations cause US-China War

Kerr 99

Paul, Research analyst at the Arms Control Association “Taiwan: Maintain the Current Ambiguity,” CSIS Prospectus, Volume 1, Number 1 - Fall 1999,

Stable U.S.-China relations can 

AND

by maintaining peaceful relations with the United States.

Extinction

Straits Times 00

Ching Cheong, “No One Gains in War Over Taiwan”, June 25, Lexis Nexis.

THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross

AND

, for China puts sovereignty above everything else.

1NR Overview

Will crush U.S.-Sino relations and block progress to open foreign markets

Inside US-China Trade 10

Inside US-China Trade, 9-15-2010, “Think Tank Panel Warns Against House Passage of China Currency Bill,” lexis

Although it is in China's own interest to

AND

threats from the United States," Levy said.

China-Taiwan war escalates to nuclear war – highly likely and no checks

Ikegami, Professor of Sociology, 8

Dr. Masako, Professor of Sociology and Peace & Conflict Studies and Director of the Center for Pacific Asia Studies – Stockholm University “Time for Conflict Prevention Across the Taiwan Strait”, China Brief, 8(7), 3-28,[tt_news]=4822

Given the above-mentioned pretext, it

AND

to worldwide criticism and boycotts of Chinese products.

AT: No US-China war

B. The probability is high— Deterring Taiwanese independence is the top priority of the Chinese military.

chase 12/14/10

[Michael, Associate Research Prof/Director, Mahan Scholars Program @ US Naval War College. Author of ‘08 “Taiwan’s Security Policy: External Threats and Domestic Politics”. Former researcher @ Defense Group Inc, & intnat’l policy analyst @RAND. PhD in IR, M.A. in China studies. Progressive Policy Institute, “China’s Growing Naval Power,” 12/14/10, http://www.progressivefix.com/china%E2%80%99s-growing-naval-power, AD 12/23/10]

Modernization now means that Beijing could call upon

AND

issue is resolved on terms acceptable to China.

2NC UQ Run

China currency passed the senate and is headed to the House. Currently Boehner will block it, but if it goes to the floor it will pass

Sonmez 10-12

Felicia Sonmez, 10-12-2011, “China currency bill demands House, White House action, senators say,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/2chambers/post/china-currency-bill-demands-house-white-house-action-senators-say/2011/10/12/gIQAafkjfL_blog.html

Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S

AND

the measure, to make clear its position.

2NC Link—Boehner/Pressure

More pressure from the rank and file causes Boehner to balk

The Atlantic 10-6 (“What's Behind Congress Taking on China's Currency Policy”, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/10/whats-behind-congress-taking-on-chinas-currency-policy/246098)

Free trade deals in exchange for smacking China

AND

floor, where it is likely to pass.

2NC Link—Boehner/Spending

These fights empirically destroy Boehner’s capital

McManus 11

Doyle McManus, April 3, 2011, “No party for John Boehner,” LA Times,

Last week, Boehner and Reid agreed to

AND

only one-third of the cuts they promised

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// 

Resolutionality 1NC

Our interpretation—the affirmative should have to defend that action by the United States federal government is normatively desirable.

Resolved means to enact by law

Words and Phrases 64 

Permanent Edition

Definition of the word “resolve,” given

AND

Bouvier as meaning “to establish by law”.

The United States federal government refers to the actual government

Black’s Law Dictionary 90

6^th Ed., p. 695

In the United States, government consists of

AND

county governments, and city and township governments.

Should implies obligation to action

Merriam-Webster 2

Merriam-Webster, Incorporated, 2002, 10^th Edition, http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/should

Used in auxiliary function to express obligation, propriety, or expediency.

B) Violation—the aff does not defend the United States federal government action

Without Limits debate becomes impossible—T is a jurisdictional voting issue

Shively 2k—Professor of Political Science, Texas A & M

Ruth, Political Theory and Partisan Politics, p. 181-2

The requirements thus far are primarily negative. 

AND

contestation rests on some basic agreement or harmony.

Without critical thinking skills developed through clash and competition we can’t effectively act on content-specific knowledge  
English et al 7

Eric English, Stephen Llano, Gordon R. Mitchell, Catherine E. Morrison, John Rief & Carly Woods, all former debate coaches, “Debate as a Weapon of Mass Destruction” http://www.pitt.edu/~gordonm/JPubs/EnglishDAWG.pdf

It is our position, however, that

AND

as a ‘‘weapon of mass destruction.’’

Switch-side debating on the topic is uniquely important.  It allows debaters to become better advocates and increases critical thinking

Dybvig and Iverson 99

Kristin Chisholm Dybvig, and Joel O. Iverson, Can Cutting Cards Carve into Our Personal Lives: An Analysis of Debate Research on Personal Advocacy, http://www.uvm.edu/~debate/dybvigiverson1000.html

Not all debate research appears to generate personal

AND

debaters to strengthen their own stance on issues.

//


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// 

1NC

China Bashing Won’t pass the house—boehner is key

WSJ 10/26

Getting Tough With China (the Right Way) http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204644504576652720545821438.html

So it appears that U.S.

AND

Mitt Romney's call for anti-China tariffs.

Boehner is barely holding the line now- House Republicans are the wild card and can override him on a discharge petition if more break ranks and he doesn’t have the PC to reign them in

Hughes 10/6

(Siobhan, , of Dow Jones News Wires, “UPDATE:On Currency Bill, Rank-And-File Republicans Buck GOP Leaders,” http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20111006-713089.html)

Rank-and-file House Republicans are

AND

a new U.S. currency policy.

Congress opposes aid—seen as wasteful spending and is partisan

Rogin 11

Josh, staff writer, Foreign Policy, This Fight Ain't Over, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/04/this_fight_aint_over?page=0,8

The November 2010 midterm elections, which brought

AND

the country heads into the 2012 presidential season.

Recent arms sales to Taiwan put relations at the brink – passage would kill relations, increase unemployment, cause a trade war, and send the global economy back into recession

Martina 10-10

Michael Martina, 10-10-2011, “China: Currency law would hurt U.S. jobs growth,” http://news.yahoo.com/china-u-vote-currency-bill-result-trade-war-083939139.html

BEIJING (Reuters) - China warned the

AND

its centuries-old sovereignty over the waters.

Collapse of relations cause US-China War

Kerr 99

Paul, Research analyst at the Arms Control Association “Taiwan: Maintain the Current Ambiguity,” CSIS Prospectus, Volume 1, Number 1 - Fall 1999,

Stable U.S.-China relations can 

AND

by maintaining peaceful relations with the United States.

Extinction

Straits Times 00

Ching Cheong, “No One Gains in War Over Taiwan”, June 25, Lexis Nexis.

THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross

AND

. If the US had to resort to nuclear

2NC Overview

Will crush U.S.-Sino relations and block progress to open foreign markets

Inside US-China Trade 10

Inside US-China Trade, 9-15-2010, “Think Tank Panel Warns Against House Passage of China Currency Bill,” lexis

Although it is in China's own interest to

AND

threats from the United States," Levy said.

It will escalate quickly – there are no checks.

Glaser 11 – prof of Political Science and International Affairs @ George Washington University

Charles Glaser, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs and Director of the Institute for Security and Conflict Studies at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University. “Will China's Rise Lead to War? Why Realism Does Not Mean Pessimism”. Foreign Affairs. Mar/Apr 2011. Vol. 90, Iss. 2; pg. 80. ProQuest.

The prospects for avoiding intense military competition and

AND

poisoning of U.S.-Chinese relations.

2NC No China Bill

Won’t pass the house—boehner is key – that’s WSJ 10/26

Boehner can stop the bill as long as he keeps Republicans in line – PC key

Reuters 10/25

US Republicans ask Obama to lead on China currency, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/25/usa-china-idUSN1E79O13120111025

Republican lawmakers aired U.S. grievances

AND

House while Obama's fellow Democrats control the Senate.

Boehner will hold off the China vote now—but pressure is mounting

Chaddock 10/13

Gail, CS Monitor, Why China 'trade war' bill is tying House Republicans in knots, http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2011/1013/Why-China-trade-war-bill-is-tying-House-Republicans-in-knots

The bill, which would impose tariffs on

AND

unintended consequences that could come as a result.”

2NC Link

Boehner’s standing strong in opposition to Obama’s jobs policies

Miller 10-28

SA, “Boehner rips O’s solo act,” http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/boehner_rips_solo_act_FnAdwYlfIePaV5nCgI45rO

House Speaker John Boehner yesterday said he had

AND

Obama for “giving up” on America.

These fights empirically destroy Boehner’s capital

McManus 11

Doyle McManus, April 3, 2011, “No party for John Boehner,” LA Times,

Last week, Boehner and Reid agreed to

AND

only one-third of the cuts they promised

More pressure from the rank and file causes Boehner to balk

The Atlantic 10-6 (“What's Behind Congress Taking on China's Currency Policy”, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/10/whats-behind-congress-taking-on-chinas-currency-policy/246098)

Free trade deals in exchange for smacking China

AND

floor, where it is likely to pass.

//


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//

1NC

Their rhetorical strategy relies on demagogic tendencies and starts us down the slippery slope to fascism.

Berlet and Lyons, 2k.

[Chip and Matthew, investigative journalist for Political Research Associates and independent scholar and freelance writer, New York: , 2000, ]

The removal of the obvious anti-communist

AND

ignore the institutions that keep producing the problems."

The end game of demagoguery is genocide.  The practices of demonization and scapegopating function to justify mass murder by removing moral decision-making as an option.

Berlet and Lyons, 2k.

[Chip and Matthew, investigative journalist for Political Research Associates and independent scholar and freelance writer, New York: , 2000, ]

Under totalitarianism the end game of demonization and

AND

the stars, but in our selves.

Rejection solves our impacts – criticizing and opening up the rhetorical practices of speakers is key to developing ethical speech practice.

Lomas, 61

[Charles W., Associate Professor of Speech at UCLA, “The Rhetoric of Demagoguery,” Western Speech, Summer, pg. 167-168]

Aristotle's defense is comforting to the teacher of

AND

is practiced by those with whom they agree.

Polarization MPX

***Demagogues do not need to create social division and fear, they merely take advantage of and amplify the public’s pre-existing irrationality by defining excluded and included members of the group which leads to the worst kind of racism – genocide.

Roberts-Miller, 2k5

[Patricia, Associate Professor of Rhetoric at UT Austin, “Democracy, Demagoguery, and Critical Rhetoric,” Rhetoric and Public Affairs, V 8: N 3, p 462-463]

Rather than abandon the goal of defining and

AND

to nature, equals race, nation.18

Truth Distortion

**Demagogues distort the truth through rhetorical effectiveness with the end goal of personal gain – i.e. the ballot.

Lomas, 61

[Charles W., Associate Professor of Speech at UCLA, “The Rhetoric of Demagoguery,” Western Speech, Summer, pg. 161-2]

"What is demagoguery ? The historical origins

AND

to identify and condemn demagoguery wherever it appears.

Evidence Based Decision Making Good

Evidence based argument leads to better decision making

Kadanoff 2006

''An educational moment?" by Leo Kadanoff is an American physicist. He is a professor of physics (emeritus) at the University of Chicago , Physics Today, September 2006

http://www.er.ethz.ch/inspire/scientists

 Our work is particularly valuable not for

AND

national leaders - everyone - make better decisions.

.

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//

1NC

The National Endowment for Democracy should provide funding to the Office of Global Women’s Issues to establish a small grants program that provides targeted support for political participation and capacity building to women’s organizations in Egypt.

Captures US signal and they’ll say yes – they take earmarked funding from international donors.

Axworthy et al ‘5

Thomas S. Axworthy, David Donova, Leslie Campbell. Institute For Research on Public Policy. May 2005. http://www.irpp.org/wp/archive/wp2005-02d.pdf

National Endowment for Democracy (NED) Overview

AND

society, labour, and private sector development in

2NC NED Solvency – Civil Society/Technical Assistance

NED solves civil society

McFaul ‘5

Michael McFaul, Stanford Professor of Political Science; Peter and Helen Bing Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution. Winter 2005. “Democracy Promotion as a World Value.” The Washington Quarterly 28:1 pp. 147–163. http://www.twq.com/05winter/docs/05winter_mcfaul.pdf

In the United States, the creation of

AND

character of the present community of democracy advocates.

2NC Signal

NED sends a signal of US involvement

Giraldi ‘11

Philip Giraldi, former CIA counter-terrorism specialist and military intelligence officer who served for 18 years, executive director of the Council for National Interest. 3/3/2011. “Uncle NED Comes Calling.” http://original.antiwar.com/giraldi/2011/03/02/uncle-ned-comes-calling/)

Neoconservative Ken Timmerman has identified the core NED

AND

not say, nor does the NED site.

Round #3  Tournament: Shirley

Vs Team: Michigan AL

Judge: Carly Wunderlich

Off Case Args:

EU NED CP

T no dialogue

Dip cap DA

Budget DA

Advantage CP

Case Args:

No harms

Block Strategy:

EU

T

Politics

2nr Strategy:

T

Politics Neg—Government Shutdown

A.     Government shut down will be avoided now

Reilly 11-11-11

Congress could approve FY12 funds for several agencies

AND

Taxpayers for Common Sense, a watchdog organization.

B.     Links

The plan sucks up political capital

Richter, LAT, 4-12

(Correspondent, LA Times. “Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition,” http://articles.latimes.com/print/2011/apr/12/world/la-fg-mideast-aid-20110413, accessed 9-28-11, CMM)

Reporting from Washington — The Obama administration's efforts

AND

administration has been blocked at almost every turn.

The window for getting a continuing resolution passed is tiny—an unexpected new policy fight this week would lead to shutdown

Helderman 11-3-11

By Rosalind S. Helderman, Reporter for Washington Post 

 Congress holds rare appropriations conference  http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/2chambers/post/congress-holds-rare-appropriations-conference/2011/11/03/gIQAN1dajM_blog.html

House and Senate appropriators Thursday gathered to begin

AND

the brink of a shutdown over spending disputes.

They will be bipartisan now but a new wave of partisanship would cause a shutdown

RT News 11-4-11

Should Congress fail to come up with a

AND

for the financial sector in the following year.

C.     Impact-- Shutdown would crush the U.S. economy

Alden 11

William Alden is a business reporter for The Huffington Post. He has also written for the New York Observer and the New York Press and is a graduate of Yale University,    Prolonged Government Shutdown Could Wither Confidence And Even Trigger Recession,  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/29/government-shutdown-economy_n_842262.html

An extended federal government shutdown could devastate the

AND

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics.

Economic collapse causes nuclear war- extinction

Broward 9 ((Member of Triond) http://newsflavor.com/opinions/will-an-economic-collapse-kill-you/)

Now its time to look at the consequences

AND

important issue facing us in the 21st century.

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////


//

1NC

Interp—assistance for democracy is distinct from promoting a dialogue—the aff isn’t topical because they only provide assistance for a diplomatic action

Stahn & Ullen 07

Andreas Stahn and Vera van Hüllen Free University Berlin Paper prepared for the European Union Studies Association (EUSA) Tenth Biennial International Conference, May 17-19, 2007 Different actors, different tools? Approaching EU and US democracy promotion in the Mediterranean and the Newly Independent States http://aei.pitt.edu/7911/1/hullen-v-03e.pdf

In our view, the crucial step is

AND

design of the tools (see Table 1).

Table 1: Democracy Promotion Tool Box

Instruments                                                   Influence Mechanisms                                 Actor

Diplomacy                                                                                                                                                                                    State

- Political Dialogue & Negotiations               Social Learning & External Incentives

(Bargaining)

-Unilateral Declarations                                                  Naming & Shaming

-Positive & Negative Conditionality               External Incentives   

(on diplomatic relations and aid)                   (Reducing or Imposing Costs)

Foreign Aid                                                                                                                                                                                  State and

non-state

Democracy Assistance (TA/FA)                                     Capacity Building and Socialization

Mediation = Diplomacy

The U.S. categorizes mediation as diplomacy

IDRC 2000

http://web.idrc.ca/en/ev-28495-201-1-DO_TOPIC.html

The 1994 National Security Strategy of Engagement and

AND

of the Secretary of State’s Preventive Action Initiative.

Wisegeek 11

http://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-mediation.htm

Diplomatic mediation is also known as peace brokering

AND

disputes before they escalate into a violent situation.

Mediation dialogus is explicitly a distinct foreign policy tool and not part of foreign aid

Damien HELLY 03

CERI - Sciences po, Paris

Rethinking the West: Convergence and Divergence between EU and US Foreign Policy in the South Caucasus

http://aei.pitt.edu/6502/

American and EU foreign policies  policy have both

AND

of negotiation adapted to such an independent context.

Dialogue 2NC

Political dialogue and democracy assistance are separate tools of democracy promotion

Euromesco 08

EuroMeSCo-IAI

“Security, Securitization and Reform: Back to Integrative Partnership”

2nd Preparatory Meeting in view of the 2008 EuroMeSCo Annual Conference;

Rome, 26-27 June 2008.

Friday, 27 June 2008www.euromesco.net/images/rome%20conference_wgs_guidelines.pdf

The EU’s democracy promotion approach seems to be

AND

Should democracy assistance be upgraded in any case?

Dialogue is a different mechanism and is not part of democracy assistance

Stahn & Ullen 07

Andreas Stahn and Vera van Hüllen Free University Berlin Paper prepared for the European Union Studies Association (EUSA) Tenth Biennial International Conference, May 17-19, 2007 Different actors, different tools? Approaching EU and US democracy promotion in the Mediterranean and the Newly Independent States http://aei.pitt.edu/7911/1/hullen-v-03e.pdf

For identifying different mechanisms of influence, we

AND

through providing expertise, financial and material resources.

AT: Burnell

Burnell concludes neg—Diplomatic advice is not the kind of advisory support that is democracy assistance—he explicitly differentiates what the plan does from democracy assistance

Burnell 10

Peter, Prof of Politics and International Studies at Univ of Warwick

Democracy assistance: international co-operation for democratization  google books

Democracy Assistance and Promoting Democracy There is a

AND

safe haven to genuine asylum-seekers anyway.

AT Technical Support

Technical Support doesn’t make you topical—a) you said that MEDIATION is the technical support you provide, which is all above b) technical assistance is not distrinct to democracy assistance—also included in other forms of aid means that you’re still not topical

Diplomatic programs in other countries include “technical support”

Nakamura 09

Kennon H. Nakamura Analyst in Foreign Affairs Congressional Research Service

U.S. Public Diplomacy: Background

AND

embassies and consulates in more than 140 countries.

Technical assistance to communicate ideas are part of the diplomacy mechanism

Rajczak 97

Nancy, Inspel 31  http://forge.fh-potsdam.de/~IFLA/INSPEL/97-4rajn.pdf

For the past 50 years, the United

AND

created by the devastation of World War II.

They unlimit-- You could sponsor a single speech in a country and call it technical assistance

Clawson 96

Dr. Patrick Clawson National Defense University

Strategic Assessment: Instruments of U.S. Power

http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/sa96/sa96ch03.html

Educational and cultural exchanges, while only indirectly

AND

molders, agenda setters, and decision makers.

Limits

Preserving limits outweighs aff flex

The fact that they have contextual evidence using the phrase “democracy assistance” is irrelevant.  It is used inaccurately in the literature for political purposes and should instead be defined narrowly.

Lappin ‘10

Richard Lappin, a PhD candidate at the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven in Belgium, He has participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE and Carter Center, visiting Scholar  at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade under the JoinEU-SEE programme. “What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation”. Central European Journal of International and Security Studies. Vol.4, No.1, May (2010). http://www.cejiss.org/sites/default/files/8.pdf

By the end of the 1990s, the

AND

post-conflict democracy assistance can be drawn.

Without a precise narrow definition we risk opening Pandora’s box and making the topic virtually unlimited- This is the best unlimits ev on any topic

Newman 01

Edward Newman Peace and Governance Programme United Nations University

The Ethnic Conflict Research Digest Volume 4, Number 2;

The volume by Cox, Ikenberry and Inoguchi

AND

potential tensions between the different types of assistance?

This month Obama is focusing on Asia and his focus is key to sending a signal of commitment to Asia

Bohan & Eckert 11-1-11

 and journalist for Reuters

President Barack Obama, whose foreign policy agenda

AND

the United States beginning its withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Increased focus on the Middle East this month will gut effectiveness in Asia

Colby 8-10-11

Elbridge Colby is a research analyst at the

AND

intervene is too important to be so wasted.

In November the U.S. must focus on Asia to prevent war in the South China Sea

Koike 11-1-11

Yuriko Koike is Japan’s former minister of defense and national security adviser

Obama and Asia’s two futures   http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=Opinion&title=Obama-and-Asia%E2%80%99s-two-futures&id=40887

Despite the relentless shift of global economic might

AND

in overall US defense spending that lies ahead.

Asian instability escalates to global nuclear war

Landay, National Security and Intelligence Correspondent, 2K

(Jonathan S., “Top administration officials warn stakes for U.S. are high in Asian conflicts”, 3-10, Knight Ridder/Tribune News) Accessed on LexisNexis 12-29-09

Few if any experts think China and Taiwan

AND

last year, according to the Commerce Department.

1NC Topicality

Democracy assistance is only transfer of funds, expertise and material related to institutions already working towards democracy.

Lappin ‘10

Richard Lappin, a PhD candidate at the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven in Belgium, He has participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE and Carter Center, visiting Scholar  at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade under the JoinEU-SEE programme. “What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation”. Central European Journal of International and Security Studies. Vol.4, No.1, May (2010). http://www.cejiss.org/sites/default/files/8.pdf

Democracy assistance can be most accurately defined as

AND

society groups, media groups and political parties.

E-IMET is not democracy assistance, it is security assistance – it seeks to promote democratic values not assist it developing it.

Pike ‘11

John Pike  Director of GlobalSecurity.org, defense information website. “Security Assistance Training Field Activity.” http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/agency/army/satfa.htm

The term "security assistance" applies to

AND

as role models for militaries in emerging democracies.

1nc

CP 1NC

The European Union should provide all necessary financial and technical support for the National Endowment for Democracy to offer military education democracy programming for Egypt to substantially increase Egyptian participation in military education democracy programming.

Captures US signal and they’ll say yes – they take earmarked funding from international donors.

Axworthy et al ‘5

Thomas S. Axworthy, David Donova, Leslie Campbell. Institute For Research on Public Policy. May 2005. http://www.irpp.org/wp/archive/wp2005-02d.pdf

National Endowment for Democracy (NED) Overview

AND

labour, and private sector development in Iraq.

1nc

Asia Focus Disad

This month Obama is focusing on Asia and his focus is key to sending a signal of commitment to Asia

Bohan & Eckert 11-1-11

and journalist for Reuters

President Barack Obama, whose foreign policy agenda

AND

the United States beginning its withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Increased focus on the Middle East this month will gut effectiveness in Asia

Colby 8-10-11

Elbridge Colby is a research analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses and a consultant to a number of government and military components Why US Needs its Liberal Empire

This is very much to the good.

AND

intervene is too important to be so wasted.

In November the U.S. must focus on Asia to prevent war in the South China Sea

Koike 11-1-11

Yuriko Koike is Japan’s former minister of defense and national security adviser

Obama and Asia’s two futures   http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=Opinion&title=Obama-and-Asia%E2%80%99s-two-futures&id=40887

Despite the relentless shift of global economic might

AND

in overall US defense spending that lies ahead.

Asian instability escalates to global nuclear war

Landay, National Security and Intelligence Correspondent, 2K

(Jonathan S., “Top administration officials warn stakes for U.S. are high in Asian conflicts”, 3-10, Knight Ridder/Tribune News) Accessed on LexisNexis 12-29-09

Few if any experts think China and Taiwan

AND

last year, according to the Commerce Department.

1nc

Politics Neg—Government Shutdown

Government shut down will be avoided now

Reilly 11-11-11

Congress could approve FY12 funds for several agencies by next week Sean Reilly reporter for Federal Times

The continuing resolution that is keeping government

AND

Taxpayers for Common Sense, a watchdog organization.

The plan inserts a lightning rod before the CR debate – prevents passage

Richter, LAT, 4-12

(Correspondent, LA Times. “Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition,” http://articles.latimes.com/print/2011/apr/12/world/la-fg-mideast-aid-20110413, accessed 9-28-11, CMM)

Reporting from Washington — The Obama administration's efforts

AND

administration has been blocked at almost every turn.

The window for getting a continuing resolution passed is tiny—an unexpected new policy fight this week would lead to shutdown

Helderman 11-3-11

By Rosalind S. Helderman, Reporter for Washington Post 

 Congress holds rare appropriations conference  http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/2chambers/post/congress-holds-rare-appropriations-conference/2011/11/03/gIQAN1dajM_blog.html

House and Senate appropriators Thursday gathered to begin

AND

the brink of a shutdown over spending disputes.

They will be bipartisan now but a new wave of partisanship would cause a shutdown

RT News 11-4-11

Should Congress fail to come up with a

AND

for the financial sector in the following year.

Impact-- Shutdown would crush the U.S. economy

Alden 11

William Alden is a business reporter for The Huffington Post. He has also written for the New York Observer and the New York Press and is a graduate of Yale University,    Prolonged Government Shutdown Could Wither Confidence And Even Trigger Recession,  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/29/government-shutdown-economy_n_842262.html

An extended federal government shutdown could devastate the

AND

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics.

Economic collapse causes global nuclear war

Mead 9—Senior Fellow in US Foreign Policy Studies @ Council on Foreign Relations

Walter Russell, Only Makes You Stronger, The New Republic, 2-4-09, http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=1

The greatest danger both to U.S

AND

Iranian influence and increase the dependence of the oil

sheikdoms on U.S. protection.

AND

track, we may still have to fight.

1nc

1NC CP

The United States federal government should threaten to rescind all of its military aid for Egypt unless the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces announces a timeline for upcoming elections and specifies the date and process for transferring power to an elected civilian authority.  The United States federal government should threaten to rescind all of its military aid if either the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces or the military does not uphold any of these conditions, continues to interfere with civilian aspects of the government or participate in crackdowns against civilians.

Counterplan solves all of the case—it’s the biggest internal link to stability and outweighs all other alt causes.  Even without assistance, the outcome of a TIMELY election would stabilize the country

--pushing for elections NOW is the biggest internal link

--pushing elections back is causing current instability and incentivizing more protests and violence

--No risk of extremisim—5/6 presidential candidates are non secularist and even the most extreme would run a more stable government than SCAF and allow the economy to recover

--Islamists could only win a plurality in parliament, which would still be the minority and there are factions within which would prevent extremism

Diehl 9/25

(Jackson, “The real threat in Egypt: Delayed democracy” [http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-real-threat-in-egypt-delayed-democracy/2011/09/22/gIQAN2zBxK_story.html])

Is Egypt imploding? A lot of people

AND

and may yet happen — between the two.

Transition

Arab Spring

Just because they make a handover doesn’t mean Egypt is a democracy

Alt cause Tunisia

Successful revision of the constitution key to longterm sustainability and prevent backsliding

Paciello 11—researcher @ the International Affairs institute, specializes in Mediterranean and ME studies

(Maria Cristina, MEDPRO Technical Report No. 3 “Tunisia: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition”/ May)

Legislative elections are crucial in determining the direction

AND

the Prime Minister argued in various interviews.59

Backsliding causes ME instability and terrorism

Hague 8/8—British Foreign Secretary

(William “Helping the Arab Spring succeed is Britain's cause too” [http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23976502-helping-the-arab-spring-succeed-is-britains-cause-too.do])

But in an integrated world, no amount

AND

we do not have the option of inaction.

Middle East War

Superpowers won’t go to war over the Middle East.

Gelb ’10 – President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations

Leslie, President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations. He was a senior official in the U.S. Defense Department from 1967 to 1969 and in the State Department from 1977 to 1979, November/December Foreign Affairs, Proquest

Also reducing the likelihood of conflict today is

AND

they rarely oppose one another in explosive situations.

No risk of Middle East war.

Maloney and Takeyh ‘7

Susan Maloney and Ray Takeyh. Senior fellow for Middle East Policy at the Saban Center for Middle East Studies at the Brookings Institution and senior fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. 6/28/2007. “Why the Iraq War Won’t Engulf the Mideast,” International Herald Tribune, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2007/0628iraq_maloney.aspx.

Yet, the Saudis, Iranians, Jordanians

AND

local conflicts from enveloping the entire Middle East.

Dozens regional conflicts disprove escalation.

Drum ‘7

Kevin Drum, political bloger. September 9, 2007. “The Choas Hawk...”. The Washington Monthly’s Political Animal Blog. http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2007_09/012029.php

Having admitted, however, that the odds

AND

war for a decade. No regional conflagration.

AT: Egypt k/t Global Econ – Schuman

They cut the strawman – the next paragraphs conclude Egyptian turmoil does not threaten the global economy – The world economy is no exposed to the Egyptian economy and Saudi would fill-in.

Schuman ‘11

Michael Schuman, long-time foreign correspondent for TIME magazine, and former Wall Street Journal reporter. February 2, 2011. “Time Magazine Does the turmoil in Egypt threaten the global recovery?". http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/02/02/does-the-turmoil-in-egypt-threaten-the-global-recovery/#ixzz1TT6k4O6d

However, my personal view on this issue

AND

the population still lives under the poverty line.

Oil Prices – Backstopping

High Oil prices no longer risk the economy

-Not key to economy

-government will intervene

-no longer pass onto core inflation

Segal 7 – prof @ Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

Paul Segal, Professor @ Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. “Why do Oil Price Shocks No Longer Shock?”. 2007. Book.

This paper surveys the literature on the relationship

AND

in response to high oil prices is absent.

Alternative energy investment is high and growing – even in 2008 during the recession.

Sadorsky ‘11

Perry Sadorsky, Schulich School of Business, York University. “Correlations and volatility spillovers between oil prices and the stock prices of clean energy and technology companies”. Energy Economics Article in Press, Corrected Proof. 2011. Science Direct.

The renewable energy sector has, in the

AND

energy sector will double in approximately 7 years.

Sustained high oil prices is critical to development of alternative energy.

IBT ‘11

International Business Times. “Why lower Saudi oil prices kill alternative energy”. May 30, 2011. http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/154524/20110530/saudi-arabia-oil.htm

The biggest obstacle to alternative energy is money

AND

enormous upfront costs of developing alternative energy sources.

Renewable energy is key to avoid oil dependence, energy prices and warming

Baker ‘4

Mark, RadioFree Europe, ‘World: Rise In Oil Price Shifts Focus To Use of Renewable Resources,’ June 1,

http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2004/06/8a45b713-2c2e-4654-9579-e7cc4e081637.html

Some 2,900 delegates, including ministers

AND

governments must spend more on research and development.

U.S. dependence on oil risks multiple flash points for conflict.

Rosen ’10

Mark E. Rosen, Deputy General Counsel, CNA Corporation. LL.M., 1991, University of Virginia School of Law; J.D., 1978, University of Georgia School of Law; A.B., 1974, University of Georgia. Mr. Rosen has over thirty years of experience in the legal and national security fields, including positions with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and a twenty-one year career as an international and maritime lawyer with United States Navy. Mr. Rosen holds adjunct teaching appointments at George Washington University School of Law and Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. “Energy Independence and Climate Change: The Economic and National Security Consequences of Failing to Act”. March 2010. 44 U. Rich. L. Rev. 977. Lexis.

President Roosevelt's tacit agreement in 1945 with Saudi

AND

environmentally sensitive Indonesian archipelago would be held hostage.

Warming leads to extinction

Burkett 8 – Professor of Law

Maxine Burkett, Associate Professor, University of Colorado Law School, 2008, “Just Solutions to Climate Change: A Climate Justice Proposal for a Domestic Clean Development Mechanism,” 56 Buffalo L. Rev. 169, Lexis

The unparalleled scale of impact the climate crisis

AND

struggle to moderate and cope with its consequences.

Purge

Heg Decline

U.S. hegemony will decline inevitable, but decline will be peaceful.

– asymmetrical warfare, BRIC rise, deficits

– gradual military reduction in Asia through mutual agreements and economic links, normal decline in history

Kennedy,10-- director of International Security Studies @ Yale

Paul, professor of history and director of international security studies at Yale University. “Back to Normalcy: Is America really in decline?”. The New Republic, Vol. 241, Issue 20. 12/30/2010.

America's military strengths are, by contrast,

AND

bad thing. It will be more normal.

Litany of examples prove Hegemony doesn’t deter

Kober 10—Research Fellow @ CATO

Stanley, research fellow in foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, The Deterrence Illusion, 6/13/10, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11898

The world at the beginning of the 21st

AND

it in Asia a half-century ago.

AT: Naval Power

Egypt isn’t key

-losing swift passage just means we would fly around, this is just a cost question, not an effectiveness question

AFP 11

“Mideast unrest puts US military access in jeopardy,” http://www.dawn.com/2011/02/19/mideast-unrest-puts-us-military-access-in-jeopardy.html

No single base or agreement represents an Achilles

AND

a base at a Yemeni Red Sea port.

Naval power not key to hegemony

Goure 10 (Daniel Goure. PhD in IR, BA in government, VP of the Lexington Institute, member of the Department of Defense Transition Team, former director of Strategic Competitiveness for the Secretary of State, senior analyst on national security and defense issues with the Center for Naval Analyses. “Can the Case be Made for Naval Power?” 2 July 2010. Lexington Institute. http://www.lexingtoninstitute.org/can-the-case-be-made-for-naval-power-?a=1&c=1171)

More broadly, it appears that the nature

AND

jeopardy, seem relatively unimportant in today’s world.

US is not facing naval challengers—other aspects of heg outweigh

Goure 10 (Daniel Goure. PhD in IR, BA in government, VP of the Lexington Institute, member of the Department of Defense Transition Team, former director of Strategic Competitiveness for the Secretary of State, senior analyst on national security and defense issues with the Center for Naval Analyses. “Can the Case be Made for Naval Power?” 2 July 2010. Lexington Institute. http://www.lexingtoninstitute.org/can-the-case-be-made-for-naval-power-?a=1&c=1171)

This is no longer the case. The

AND

more mine countermeasures capabilities than it currently possesses.

Naval power doesn’t solve heg

Boyer et al. 98 (Pelham G. Boyer: MA in national security affairs from the U.S. Naval Post grad School, managing editor for the Naval War College Press. Strategic Transformation and Naval Power in the 21^st Century. Newport: 1998. Naval War College Press. Print.)

Obviously, global naval hegemony does not convey

AND

of the either the nation or the Navy.

Indo-Pak

PAKISTANI LOOSE NUKES

Even crisis won’t put Pakistan’s nukes at risk

Montgomery ‘9

Evan Braden Montgomery, Research Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, Nuclear Terrorism: Assessing the Threat, Developing a Response, http://www.csbaonline.org/4Publications/PubLibrary/R.20090422.Nuclear_Terrorism/R.20090422.Nuclear_ Terrorism.pdf

Several factors do suggest that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons

AND

not been degraded by Pakistan’s political crisis.”154

WAR-

MAD prevents war between India and Pakistan.

Khan ‘11

A.Q. Khan, Doctor of Science, “Indo-Pak nuclear war unlikely”, 5/17/11, http://www.kashmirawareness.org/Article/View/6464 7/7/11

Khan has said that despite sabre-rattling

AND

Germany and France live today," he added.

***Threaten

1NC CP

The United States federal government should threaten to rescind all of its military aid for Egypt unless the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces announces a timeline for upcoming elections and specifies the date and process for transferring power to an elected civilian authority.  The United States federal government should threaten to rescind all of its military aid if either the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces or the military does not uphold any of these conditions, continues to interfere with civilian aspects of the government or participate in crackdowns against civilians.

Counterplan solves all of the case—it’s the biggest internal link to stability and outweighs all other alt causes.  Even without assistance, the outcome of a TIMELY election would stabilize the country

--pushing for elections NOW is the biggest internal link

--pushing elections back is causing current instability and incentivizing more protests and violence

--No risk of extremisim—5/6 presidential candidates are non secularist and even the most extreme would run a more stable government than SCAF and allow the economy to recover

--Islamists could only win a plurality in parliament, which would still be the minority and there are factions within which would prevent extremism

Diehl 9/25

(Jackson, “The real threat in Egypt: Delayed democracy” [http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-real-threat-in-egypt-delayed-democracy/2011/09/22/gIQAN2zBxK_story.html])

Is Egypt imploding? A lot of people

AND

and may yet happen — between the two.

2NC Say Yes

current aid on the Egyptian SCAF stopping crackdowns on peaceful protestors is key to the transition and U.S. credibility – they will say yes.

Super 8/23

David A. Super, a law professor at Georgetown University, is active in Voices for a Democratic Egypt. August 23, 2011 Los Angeles Times “Time for the U.S. to use its influence in Egypt”. http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-super-egypt-20110823,0,5909879.story

After tens of thousands of people turned out

AND

democracy in the heart of the Arab world.

Must threaten action to force the Generals to act – they will say yes.

Tobin 9/10

Jonathon S. Tobin, Senior Online Editor of Commentary magazine with responsibility for managing the editorial content of the website as well as serving as chief politics blogger. “Suspend Aid to Egypt Immediately”. September 10, 2011. Commentary Magazine. http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/09/10/obama-aid-to-egypt-suspend/

Although the Egyptian military has loosened its security

AND

will never, ever call them to account.

U.S. pressure is key to the military embracing democracy – the Generals are concerned with their public image.

Martini and Taylor 11 project associate at the RAND Corporation, political scientist at the RAND Corporation

Jeffrey, and Julie, Commanding Democracy in Egypt: The Military's Attempt to Manage the Future, 8/25/11, http://www.rand.org/commentary/2011/08/25/FA.html

Thus far, the evidence suggests that the

AND

and publicly pressuring the generals to embrace democracy.

Solvency

Long time frame

Bruneau, Peggar, and Wright 8

Researchers at the Center for Civil-Military Relations, “IMET Assessment Project,” pg 29

Sixth, the question of time further complicates

AND

progress in their careers over years or decades.

IMET training is a grotesque empirical failure

Federation of American scientists 04

Eric D. Newsom, former assistant secretary of State for political-military affairs

http://www.fas.org/asmp/campaigns/training/IMET2.html

While IMET may indeed improve ties between the

AND

provided by the aid to stop the abuses.

Claims that it has changed and effective are made up claims by proponents and it continues to fail

Federation of American scientists 04

Eric D. Newsom, former assistant secretary of State for political-military affairs

http://www.fas.org/asmp/campaigns/training/IMET2.html

While some steps have been taken to reduce

AND

alone to the Colombian military [51] .

You should be highly skeptical of your solvency claims—There is no empirical proof of IMET effectiveness—Any solvency claims should be treated as pure speculation because the U.S. doesn’t even track those trained

GAO October 11

INTERNATIONAL MILITARY EDUCATION AND TRAINING

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:4W1JNOXbDOIJ:www.gao.gov/new.items/d12123.pdf+imet

State and DOD’s ability

challenges to monitoring IMET graduates.

The Millennium Challenge Corporation should substantially expand development compact grants to include _____ Tunisia. One of the conditions for MCC money should be anticorruption. The United States federal government should not provide democracy assistance.

The counterplan competes – political conditionality through the MCC is distinct from democracy assistance through USAID

Stahn & van Hüllen 7 - *Research Associate @ Free Univ in Berlin, **Research Associate in Politcal Science @ Free Univ in Berlin

Andreas Stahn, Research Associate for the Collaborative Research Project @ Free University Berlin, and Vera van Hüllen, Research Associate for the Otto Suhr Institute of Political Science @ Free University Berlin. Paper prepared for the European Union Studies Association (EUSA), Tenth Biennial International Conference, May 17-19, 2007, Montreal, Canada, pg. http://aei.pitt.edu/7911/1/hullen-v-03e.pdf

The governmental agency of most importance with regard

AND

of the US universe of governmental democracy promotion.

First – avoids politics

Dobransky 11 – PhD Candidate @ Kent State

Steve, “The Coming Crisis in US Foreign Aid Policy,” http://www.unc.edu/depts/diplomat/item/2011/0104/comm/dobransky_coming.html

The arguments against eliminating the MCC stress the

AND

years and then see what it has done.

Second – the case – the counterplan solves and the plan doesn’t

CDDRL 8

Stanford University’s Center for Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law, “REORGANIZING U.S. GOVERNMENT DEMOCRACY PROMOTION EFFORTS” http://iis-db.stanford.edu/res/2329/Reorganizing.pdf

Expand the MCC, even if at the

AND

likelihood that aid with reach its intended target.

Will pass but will be a fight

Lee 12/31

Carol, staff writer, White House Looks to Shrunken 2012 Legislative Agenda, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204720204577131543017594740.html

The president's aides are convinced Congress will ultimately

AND

of being a champion of the middle class.

The plan generates a massive controversy

Richter, LAT, ‘11

(Correspondent, LA Times. “Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition,” http://articles.latimes.com/print/2011/apr/12/world/la-fg-mideast-aid-20110413, accessed 9-28-11, CMM)

Reporting from Washington — The Obama administration's efforts

AND

administration has been blocked at almost every turn.

Political capital is key

Philadelphia Inquirer, 9/8

POINT: Don't expect miracles on job growth; Some steps could help, but don't expect miracles, 9/8/2011, http://articles.philly.com/2011-09-08/news/30130709_1_jobs-plan-american-economy-rare-tax

President Obama goes into Thursday's big speech on

AND

made a major effort to privatize Social Security.

Failure to pass leads to a double-dip recession—makes us vulnerable to future shocks

CNN Money 12/20

Economists: Payroll tax deadlock could hobble economy http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/chi-economists-payroll-tax-deadlock-could-hobble-economy-20111220,0,7377025.story

If Congress fails to pass an extension of

AND

Sal Guatieri senior economist with BMO Capital Markets.

Economic collapse causes global nuclear war

Mead 9—Senior Fellow in US Foreign Policy Studies @ Council on Foreign Relations

Walter Russell, Only Makes You Stronger, The New Republic, 2-4-09, http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=1

The greatest danger both to U.S

AND

Iranian influence and increase the dependence of the oil

sheikdoms on U.S. protection.

AND

track, we may still have to fight.

Will pass now—key to economy and competitiveness

TMC News 3/12

Push for Cybersecurity Bill Continues, http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2012/03/12/6181001.htm

Key industry stakeholders and top administration officials continue

AND

to modernize our laws and save American jobs.

Political capital is key to compromise

Levin 2-8

Mintz Levin on 2/8/2012 “Legislative Update – Cybersecurity” http://www.jdsupra.com/post/documentViewer.aspx?fid=0a38a729-5e76-4261-8263-e371f4cbff87

As the 112th Congress gets underway, many

AND

urgency of passing a cybersecurity bill this year.

The plan generates a massive controversy

Richter, LAT, ‘11

(Correspondent, LA Times. “Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition,” http://articles.latimes.com/print/2011/apr/12/world/la-fg-mideast-aid-20110413, accessed 9-28-11, CMM)

Reporting from Washington — The Obama administration's efforts

AND

administration has been blocked at almost every turn.

Economic collapse causes global nuclear war

Mead 9—Senior Fellow in US Foreign Policy Studies @ Council on Foreign Relations

Walter Russell, Only Makes You Stronger, The New Republic, 2-4-09, http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=1

The greatest danger both to U.S

AND

Iranian influence and increase the dependence of the oil

sheikdoms on U.S. protection.

AND

track, we may still have to fight.