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Kansas Campbell Gress Aff

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09/05/11

  • GSU 1AC Tunisia

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Plan

       

      The United States federal government should provide election monitoring assistance and constitutional reform assistance to Tunisia.

      Adv 1

       

      Upcoming elections in Tunisia are the litmus test for the Arab spring—success in Tunisia key to spreading democracy in the region

      Masmoudi 11—president of the Center for the Study of Islam & Democracy

      (Radwan “Tunisia should be the priority” [http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/05/tunisia-should-be-the-priority/] May 18)

      The Arab world desperately needs a successful working

      AND

      here will have catastrophic repercussions in the region.

      Successful elections spillover to other countries—creates a model for true reform and democracy

      Rochdy 11

      (Adel, Tunisian journalist with a background in political science and law. “Tunisian elections will shape the political future of the Maghreb” [http://zawaya.magharebia.com/en_GB/zawaya/opinion/481] August)

      Tunisia is getting ready for a historic event

      AND

      way for a real democracy in the region.

      Democratization is key to prevent Mid-East war

      Schnabel 3

      Albrecht Schnabel, Academic Programme Office in the Peace and Governance Programme of the United Nations University, 2003, Democratization in the Middle East, p. 25-26

      Successful democratization is essential to bring peace to

      AND

      efforts to offer human security to its population.

      Middle East instability goes global

      London 10—president of the Hudson Institute

      (Herbert I. London, President of the Hudson Institute, a New York University based political think tank, and professor of Humanities at New York University, Hudson New York, 6/28/10, )

      The coming storm in the Middle East is

      AND

      if one, falls, the tent collapses.

      Most likely scenario for conflict

      Ferguson 7 – prof of history @ Harvard and senior fellow @ Hoover

      Niall Ferguson, professor of history @ Harvard, and sr. fellow @ the Hoover Institution. “This heat is a recipe for Armageddon”. June 17, 2007. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/06/17/do1701.xml

      For some time I have been warning that

      AND

      , and you have a recipe for Armageddon.

       

       

      Independently, election failure causes Arab Spring backsliding

      Walker and Tucker 8/11

      (Christopher and Vanessa, “Tunisia: The Arab Spring's Pivotal Democratic Example” [http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=694])

      Tunisia has already exerted a powerful demonstration effect

      AND

      interests of the United States and European Union.

       

       

      Now is the key time to act—the risk of backsliding is at an all time high

       11—Senior Constitutional Officer of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq

      (Sven, “Networks and an Arab Summer” [http://globalbrief.ca/blog/2011/06/27/can-the-arab-spring-turn-into-summer/] June 27)

      It remains too early to view the protest

      AND

      responsive to their rights, needs and interests.

       

      Backsliding causes ME instability and terrorism

      Hague 8/8—British Foreign Secretary

      (William “Helping the Arab Spring succeed is Britain's cause too” [http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23976502-helping-the-arab-spring-succeed-is-britains-cause-too.do])

      But in an integrated world, no amount

      AND

      we do not have the option of inaction.

       

      Terrorism causes extinction

      Speice 6

      Speice, Patrick F., Jr. "Negligence and nuclear nonproliferation: eliminating the current liability barrier to bilateral U.S.-Russian nonproliferation assistance programs." William and Mary Law Review 47.4 (Feb 2006): 1427(59). Expanded Academic ASAP.

      With the end of the Cold War in

      AND

      escalate to the use of nuclear weapons.53

      Adv 2

      Now is key—failure of upcoming elections in Tunisia would cause instability

      Valdmanis 9/7

      (Richard, writing for Reuters “Analysis - Confusion reigns ahead of Tunisia vote” [http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFTRE7863DV20110907?sp=true])

      TUNIS (Reuters)- - After standing up

      AND

      to stay in power could pose a threat.

      Failure causes instability and violence

      IFES 11

      (International Foundation for Electoral Systems, “Elections in Tunisia: Key challenges for credible and competitive elections” [] January 25)

      Tunisia’s ongoing and rapid political change is likely

      AND

      the election and possible election-related violence.

      Causes Algerian Transmed natural gas cut off, takes out 20% of the EU’s energy supply

      Ghettas 11—doctoral student @ London School of Economics and Political Science

      (Lakhdar “The Geopolitical Repercussions of the Tunisian Jasmine Revolution on North Africa”/January)

      While calm and order started to be restored

      AND

      1984, under the former president Lahbib Bourgiba.

       

      Transmed is the VITAL link to EU energy security—no ready alternatives

      Forbes 11

      (“Instability In Algeria Could Have Serious Energy Implications For Europe” [http://www.forbes.com/sites/energysource/2011/01/30/instability-in-algeria-could-have-serious-energy-implications-for-europe/] January 30)

      On top of the natural gas flowing to

      AND

      will simply sail to other countries that will.

       

      Algerian shock hits Italy and Spain especially hard

      Egging et al '08

       Ruud, Dep't of Civil and Env Enginering, University of Maryland College Park; Steven A. Gabriel, Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Applied Mathematics and Scienteific Computation Program, University of Maryland College Park, Franziska Holz, DIW Berlin, Jifang Zhuang, Chevron, "A Complementary model for the European natural gas market," 4/15/08, Energy Policy, Volume 36, Issue 7, http://www.sciencedirect.com.www2.lib.ku.edu:2048/science/article/pii/S030142150800061X#sec3.3

      Algerian natural gas production is important for the

      AND

      turning to the world-wide LNG market.

       

      The fragile European economy won’t survive a weakened Italian or Spanish economy—default triggers collapse, spills over to the world economy

      Francis 9/14/11

      David reporter for the Fiscal Times, correspondent of the Christian Science Monitor, Financial Times Deutschland, and Deutsche Welle. contributing writer to World Politics Review,  and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, spoken about his reporting at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service, the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies, and the World Affairs Council of Pittsburgh “China and the Doomsday Scenario for Europe,” Fiscal Times, 9/14/11

      http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2011/09/14/China-and-the-Doomsday-Scenario-for-Europe.aspx#page1, AD 9/16/11

      What was once considered a worst-case

      AND

      is unthinkable in the current age of austerity.

       

      Economic collapse causes global nuclear war

      Mead 9—Senior Fellow in US Foreign Policy Studies @ Council on Foreign Relations

      Walter Russell, Only Makes You Stronger, The New Republic, 2-4-09, http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=1

      The greatest danger both to U.S

      AND

      track, we may still have to fight.

       

      Russia would be the only feasible fill in—Russia will use the EU’s reliance as a political weapon for expansionism
      Cohen 9-- Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies @ the Heritage Foundation

      (“Can Europe Be Taken Hostage by Russia’s Natural Gas Supply?” [http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=1071&pageid=20&pagename=Security]/February 9)

      It is clear that Russia has not ceased

      AND

      of energy and stand up to Russian bullying.

       

      Russian expansionism leads to prolif, regional instability, conflict, and nuclear use

      Cook 98

      Major, The Empire Strikes Back: Russia's Strategy is Still a Threat to Canada's Security, http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/doctrine/0027.htm

      Russia has come a long way since the

      AND

      the same threat as during the Cold War.

      High magnitude

      Bostrom 2

      Nick, PhD, Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9, March 2002, http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html

      A much greater existential risk emerged with the

      AND

      that we will encounter in the 21st century.

      This leads to extinction

      Engdahl 7

      F. William, February 18, pg. http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/engdahl/2007/0218.html

      Putin also did not have North Korea,

      AND

      perhaps, end human civilization in the process. 

      Solvency

      US election assistance key to a successful Tunisian transition

      Allen 11

      (Michael, “Tunisia: home-grown revolution needs foreign support” [http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/01/home-grown-revolution-needs-foreign-support-say-tunisians/] January 27)

      There are promising signs that the formation of

      AND

      ruling parties, do not outmanoeuvre the moderates.”

      Successful revision of the constitution key to longterm sustainability and prevent backsliding

      Paciello 11—researcher @ the International Affairs institute, specializes in Mediterranean and ME studies

      (Maria Cristina, MEDPRO Technical Report No. 3 “Tunisia: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition”/ May)

      Legislative elections are crucial in determining the direction

      AND

      the Prime Minister argued in various interviews.59

       




09/23/11

  • 2AC Heg Good

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • === Heg decline leads to great power war ===

      (% class="MsoNormal" %)
      (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Zhang and Shi 11(%%) – *Yuhan Zhang is a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Currently on leave from Graduate School in Economic and Political Development, Lin Shi, MA from Columbia in International Affairs, also serves as an independent consultant for the Eurasia Group and a consultant for the World Bank

      (% class="MsoNormal" %)
      America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry, http:~/~/www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/

      (% class="card" %)
      (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)This does not (% style="color: black;" %)necessarily (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)mean that the US

      (% class="card" %)
      (% style="color: black;" %)AND

      (% class="card" %)
      (% style="color: black;" %)will inevitably be devoid of unrivalled US primacy.

      === We’ll be jerks—creates massive power vacuums and the US will lashout which indpenetly causes extinction ===

      (% class="MsoNormal" %)
      (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Friedberg and Schoenfeld 8

      (% class="MsoNormal" %)
      Aaron, professor of politics and international relations at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School, Gabriel, Visiting Scholar @ Witherspoon Institute, The Dangers of a Diminished America, WSJ, 10/21, Proquest

      (% class="card" %)
      (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Pressures to cut defense spending(%%), and to

      (% class="card" %)
      (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)AND

      (% class="card" %)
      (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)divert attention from internal travails with external adventures.

      (% class="MsoNormal" %)


      === Decline in military dominance will cause the US to become uncooperative and desperate.  Hegemonic wars will ensue ===

      (% class="MsoNormal" %)
      (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Goldstein 7

      (% class="MsoNormal" %)
      (% class="cardChar" %)- Professor of Global Politics and International Relations @ University of Pennsylvania [Avery Goldstein, “Power transitions, institutions, and China's rise in East Asia: Theoretical expectations and evidence,” (%%), Volume , Issue August 2007, pages 639 – 682]

      (% class="card" %)
      Two closely related, though distinct, theoretical

      (% class="card" %)
      AND

      (% class="card" %)
      possible crossover.19 pg. 647-650

      (% class="MsoNormal" %)


      === These transition wars will cause extinction ===

      (% class="MsoNormal" %)
      (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Nye 90(%%) - Former assistant secretary of defense and president of Harvard's Kennedy school of government  (Joseph,  __Bound To Lead: The Changing Nature Of American Power__ 1990, p. 16-17)

      (% class="card" %)
      Some suggest that the current debate on American

      (% class="card" %)
      (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)AND

      (% class="card" %)
      (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;"




10/31/11

  • Mo State 1AC (New Plan/Adv)

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • //


      ////


      // 

      Plan

      The United States federal government should contribute election monitoring assistance and constitutional reform assistance for Tunisia.

       

       

       

       

      EU Coop

       

      The EU is sending a team to monitor upcoming elections in Tunisia—however, its taking an observation only approach—doesn’t ensure successful monitoring or credibility

      AP 9/21

      (“EU to send 150 poll observers to Tunisia” [http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gcMHHrnwvqZ7hZVLTQujUlQqp3hA?docId=CNG.590c87bf3232828fdaaa5df9c4da5141.1e1])

      TUNIS — The EU will send 150 observers

      AND

      has become known as the "Arab Spring".

       

      Squo fails—current process will replicate authoritarianism, leads to dissidence and empty reforms

      Tupy and Basham 3—assistant director of the Project on Global Economic Liberty and senior fellow @ Cato Institute

      (Marian and Patrick, “US-EU: The Constitutional Divide”[http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=3154] July 5)

      The American Constitution is a product of the

      AND

      wealth, cultural influence, and political power.

      Also not seen as credible by those outside of Ben Ali’s regime

      Rupp 5

      (Thomas, “The EU Constitution brings bad times for democracy” [http://www.newropeans-magazine.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1967&Itemid=125]/ March 16)

      To believe that anything – with respect to

      AND

      this reason alone this constitution must be rejected.

      Two impacts—First is US-EU strategic relations

      The US-EU partnership is not strategic in the status quo – makes cooperation useless
             Hamilton and Burwell 10

      [Daniel S, Executive Director of the Center for Transatlantic Relations; Executive Director of the American Consortium on EU Studies; Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation Research Professor at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins, and Frances, Vice President, Director of the Program on Transatlantic Relations at the Atlantic Council, former executive director of the Center for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland, "The Setting: The United States and Europe in a G20 World," Chapter 1, ]

      The United States is the most important partner

      AND

      to do it, but it was painful.

       

      Coordination of democracy assistance to the Middle East is vital to retooling the alliance
      Wittes and Youngs 9

      [Tamara, deputy assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs at the U.S. Department of State, research fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institute, and Richard, director general of FRIDE, assistant professor at the University of Warwick, “Europe, the United States, and Middle Eastern Democracy: Repairing the Breach,” January, The Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, no 18, ]

      As the Obama Administration assumes office, hopes

      AND

      Middle East can, cautiously, be rebuilt.

       

      Failure to change our stance towards Europe ensures they become a counterweight – accesses every impact
             Stivachtis 10 – Director of International Studies Program @ Virginia Polytechnic Institute  

      [Dr. Yannis. A. Stivachtis (Professor of Poli Sci @ Virginia Polytechnic Institute & Ph.D. in Politics & International Relations from Lancaster University), THE IMPERATIVE FOR TRANSATLANTIC COOPERATION,” The Research Institute for European and American Studies, 2010,  pg. ]

      There is no doubt that US-European

      AND

      the costs of continued alliance outweigh its benefits.

       

       

       

       

      Second is elections—

      Upcoming elections in Tunisia are the litmus test for the Arab spring—success in Tunisia key to spreading democracy in the region

      Masmoudi 11—president of the Center for the Study of Islam & Democracy

      (Radwan “Tunisia should be the priority” [http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/05/tunisia-should-be-the-priority/] May 18)

      The Arab world desperately needs a successful working

      AND

      here will have catastrophic repercussions in the region.

       

      Successful revision of the constitution key to longterm sustainability and prevent backsliding

      Paciello 11—researcher @ the International Affairs institute, specializes in Mediterranean and ME studies

      (Maria Cristina, MEDPRO Technical Report No. 3 “Tunisia: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition”/ May)

      Legislative elections are crucial in determining the direction

      AND

      the Prime Minister argued in various interviews.59

       

      Independently, election failure causes Arab Spring backsliding

      Walker and Tucker 8/11

      (Christopher and Vanessa, “Tunisia: The Arab Spring's Pivotal Democratic Example” [http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=694])

      Tunisia has already exerted a powerful demonstration effect

      AND

      interests of the United States and European Union.

       

       

      Now is the key time to act—the risk of backsliding is at an all time high

       11—Senior Constitutional Officer of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq

      (Sven, “Networks and an Arab Summer” [http://globalbrief.ca/blog/2011/06/27/can-the-arab-spring-turn-into-summer/] June 27)

      It remains too early to view the protest

      AND

      responsive to their rights, needs and interests.

       

      Backsliding causes ME instability and terrorism

      Hague 8/8—British Foreign Secretary

      (William “Helping the Arab Spring succeed is Britain's cause too” [http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23976502-helping-the-arab-spring-succeed-is-britains-cause-too.do])

      But in an integrated world, no amount

      AND

      we do not have the option of inaction.

      Middle East instability goes global

      London 10—president of the Hudson Institute

      (Herbert I. London, President of the Hudson Institute, a New York University based political think tank, and professor of Humanities at New York University, Hudson New York, 6/28/10, )

      The coming storm in the Middle East is

      AND

      if one, falls, the tent collapses.

      Most likely scenario for conflict

      Ferguson 7 – prof of history @ Harvard and senior fellow @ Hoover

      Niall Ferguson, professor of history @ Harvard, and sr. fellow @ the Hoover Institution. “This heat is a recipe for Armageddon”. June 17, 2007. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/06/17/do1701.xml

      For some time I have been warning that

      AND

      , and you have a recipe for Armageddon.

      Terrorism causes extinction

      Speice 6

      Speice, Patrick F., Jr. "Negligence and nuclear nonproliferation: eliminating the current liability barrier to bilateral U.S.-Russian nonproliferation assistance programs." William and Mary Law Review 47.4 (Feb 2006): 1427(59). Expanded Academic ASAP.

      With the end of the Cold War in

      AND

      escalate to the use of nuclear weapons.53

       

       




10/31/11

  • Kentucky 1AC Tunisia

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • //


      ////


      // 

      Plan

      The United States federal government should contribute election monitoring assistance and constitutional reform assistance for Tunisia.

       

       

      Adv —Transmed

      Now is key—failure of upcoming elections in Tunisia would cause instability

      Valdmanis 9/7

      (Richard, writing for Reuters “Analysis - Confusion reigns ahead of Tunisia vote” [http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFTRE7863DV20110907?sp=true])

      TUNIS (Reuters)- - After standing up

      AND

      to stay in power could pose a threat.

      Failure causes instability and violence

      IFES 11

      (International Foundation for Electoral Systems, “Elections in Tunisia: Key challenges for credible and competitive elections” [] January 25)

      Tunisia’s ongoing and rapid political change is likely

      AND

      the election and possible election-related violence.

      Causes Algerian Transmed natural gas cut off, takes out 20% of the EU’s energy supply

      Ghettas 11—doctoral student @ London School of Economics and Political Science

      (Lakhdar “The Geopolitical Repercussions of the Tunisian Jasmine Revolution on North Africa”/January)

      While calm and order started to be restored

      AND

      1984, under the former president Lahbib Bourgiba.

       

      Transmed is the VITAL link to EU energy security—no ready alternatives

      Forbes 11

      (“Instability In Algeria Could Have Serious Energy Implications For Europe” [http://www.forbes.com/sites/energysource/2011/01/30/instability-in-algeria-could-have-serious-energy-implications-for-europe/] January 30)

      On top of the natural gas flowing to

      AND

      will simply sail to other countries that will.

       

      Algerian shock hits Italy and Spain especially hard

      Egging et al '08

       Ruud, Dep't of Civil and Env Enginering, University of Maryland College Park; Steven A. Gabriel, Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Applied Mathematics and Scienteific Computation Program, University of Maryland College Park, Franziska Holz, DIW Berlin, Jifang Zhuang, Chevron, "A Complementary model for the European natural gas market," 4/15/08, Energy Policy, Volume 36, Issue 7, http://www.sciencedirect.com.www2.lib.ku.edu:2048/science/article/pii/S030142150800061X#sec3.3

      Algerian natural gas production is important for the

      AND

      turning to the world-wide LNG market.

       

      The fragile European economy won’t survive a weakened Italian or Spanish economy—default triggers collapse, spills over to the world economy

      Francis 9/14/11

      David reporter for the Fiscal Times, correspondent of the Christian Science Monitor, Financial Times Deutschland, and Deutsche Welle. contributing writer to World Politics Review,  and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, spoken about his reporting at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service, the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies, and the World Affairs Council of Pittsburgh “China and the Doomsday Scenario for Europe,” Fiscal Times, 9/14/11

      http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2011/09/14/China-and-the-Doomsday-Scenario-for-Europe.aspx#page1, AD 9/16/11

      What was once considered a worst-case

      AND

      is unthinkable in the current age of austerity.

       

      Economic collapse causes global nuclear war

      Mead 9—Senior Fellow in US Foreign Policy Studies @ Council on Foreign Relations

      Walter Russell, Only Makes You Stronger, The New Republic, 2-4-09, http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=1

      The greatest danger both to U.S

      AND

      track, we may still have to fight.

      Economic decline causes war – studies prove

      Royal 10

      (Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises, in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)

      Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline

      AND

      economic-security debate and deserves more attention.

      Russia would be the only feasible fill in—Russia will use the EU’s reliance as a political weapon for expansionism
      Cohen 9-- Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies @ the Heritage Foundation

      (“Can Europe Be Taken Hostage by Russia’s Natural Gas Supply?” [http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=1071&pageid=20&pagename=Security]/February 9)

      It is clear that Russia has not ceased

      AND

      of energy and stand up to Russian bullying.

       

      Russian expansionism leads to prolif, regional instability, conflict, and nuclear use

      Cook 98

      Major, The Empire Strikes Back: Russia's Strategy is Still a Threat to Canada's Security, http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/doctrine/0027.htm

      Russia has come a long way since the

      AND

      the same threat as during the Cold War.

      High magnitude

      Bostrom 2

      Nick, PhD, Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9, March 2002, http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html

      A much greater existential risk emerged with the

      AND

      that we will encounter in the 21st century.

      This leads to extinction

      Engdahl 7

      F. William, February 18, pg. http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/engdahl/2007/0218.html

      Putin also did not have North Korea,

      AND

      perhaps, end human civilization in the process. 

       

       

      Adv2

       

      The EU is sending a team to monitor upcoming elections in Tunisia—however, its taking an observation only approach—doesn’t ensure successful monitoring or credibility

      AP 9/21

      (“EU to send 150 poll observers to Tunisia” [http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gcMHHrnwvqZ7hZVLTQujUlQqp3hA?docId=CNG.590c87bf3232828fdaaa5df9c4da5141.1e1])

      TUNIS — The EU will send 150 observers

      AND

      has become known as the "Arab Spring".

       

      Squo fails—current process will replicate authoritarianism, leads to dissidence and empty reforms

      Tupy and Basham 3—assistant director of the Project on Global Economic Liberty and senior fellow @ Cato Institute

      (Marian and Patrick, “US-EU: The Constitutional Divide”[http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=3154] July 5)

      The American Constitution is a product of the

      AND

      wealth, cultural influence, and political power.

      Also not seen as credible by those outside of Ben Ali’s regime

      Rupp 5

      (Thomas, “The EU Constitution brings bad times for democracy” [http://www.newropeans-magazine.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1967&Itemid=125]/ March 16)

      To believe that anything – with respect to

      AND

      this reason alone this constitution must be rejected.

      Two impacts—First is US-EU strategic relations

      The US-EU partnership is not strategic in the status quo – makes cooperation useless
             Hamilton and Burwell 10

      [Daniel S, Executive Director of the Center for Transatlantic Relations; Executive Director of the American Consortium on EU Studies; Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation Research Professor at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins, and Frances, Vice President, Director of the Program on Transatlantic Relations at the Atlantic Council, former executive director of the Center for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland, "The Setting: The United States and Europe in a G20 World," Chapter 1, ]

      The United States is the most important partner

      AND

      to do it, but it was painful.

       

      Coordination of democracy assistance to the Middle East is vital to retooling the alliance
      Wittes and Youngs 9

      [Tamara, deputy assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs at the U.S. Department of State, research fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institute, and Richard, director general of FRIDE, assistant professor at the University of Warwick, “Europe, the United States, and Middle Eastern Democracy: Repairing the Breach,” January, The Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, no 18, ]

      As the Obama Administration assumes office, hopes

      AND

      Middle East can, cautiously, be rebuilt.

       

      Failure to change our stance towards Europe ensures they become a counterweight – accesses every impact
             Stivachtis 10 – Director of International Studies Program @ Virginia Polytechnic Institute  

      [Dr. Yannis. A. Stivachtis (Professor of Poli Sci @ Virginia Polytechnic Institute & Ph.D. in Politics & International Relations from Lancaster University), THE IMPERATIVE FOR TRANSATLANTIC COOPERATION,” The Research Institute for European and American Studies, 2010,  pg. ]

      There is no doubt that US-European

      AND

      the costs of continued alliance outweigh its benefits.

       

       

       

       

      Second is elections—

      Upcoming elections in Tunisia are the litmus test for the Arab spring—success in Tunisia key to spreading democracy in the region

      Masmoudi 11—president of the Center for the Study of Islam & Democracy

      (Radwan “Tunisia should be the priority” [http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/05/tunisia-should-be-the-priority/] May 18)

      The Arab world desperately needs a successful working

      AND

      here will have catastrophic repercussions in the region.

       

      Successful revision of the constitution key to longterm sustainability and prevent backsliding

      Paciello 11—researcher @ the International Affairs institute, specializes in Mediterranean and ME studies

      (Maria Cristina, MEDPRO Technical Report No. 3 “Tunisia: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition”/ May)

      Legislative elections are crucial in determining the direction

      AND

      the Prime Minister argued in various interviews.59

       

      Independently, election failure causes Arab Spring backsliding

      Walker and Tucker 8/11

      (Christopher and Vanessa, “Tunisia: The Arab Spring's Pivotal Democratic Example” [http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=694])

      Tunisia has already exerted a powerful demonstration effect

      AND

      interests of the United States and European Union.

       

       

      Now is the key time to act—the risk of backsliding is at an all time high

       11—Senior Constitutional Officer of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq

      (Sven, “Networks and an Arab Summer” [http://globalbrief.ca/blog/2011/06/27/can-the-arab-spring-turn-into-summer/] June 27)

      It remains too early to view the protest

      AND

      responsive to their rights, needs and interests.

       

      Backsliding causes ME instability and terrorism

      Hague 8/8—British Foreign Secretary

      (William “Helping the Arab Spring succeed is Britain's cause too” [http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23976502-helping-the-arab-spring-succeed-is-britains-cause-too.do])

      But in an integrated world, no amount

      AND

      we do not have the option of inaction.

      Middle East instability goes global

      London 10—president of the Hudson Institute

      (Herbert I. London, President of the Hudson Institute, a New York University based political think tank, and professor of Humanities at New York University, Hudson New York, 6/28/10, )

      The coming storm in the Middle East is

      AND

      if one, falls, the tent collapses.

      Most likely scenario for conflict

      Ferguson 7 – prof of history @ Harvard and senior fellow @ Hoover

      Niall Ferguson, professor of history @ Harvard, and sr. fellow @ the Hoover Institution. “This heat is a recipe for Armageddon”. June 17, 2007. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/06/17/do1701.xml

      For some time I have been warning that

      AND

      , and you have a recipe for Armageddon.

      Terrorism causes extinction

      Speice 6

      Speice, Patrick F., Jr. "Negligence and nuclear nonproliferation: eliminating the current liability barrier to bilateral U.S.-Russian nonproliferation assistance programs." William and Mary Law Review 47.4 (Feb 2006): 1427(59). Expanded Academic ASAP.

      With the end of the Cold War in

      AND

      escalate to the use of nuclear weapons.53

       

       

       

       

       




10/31/11

  • Kentucky 1AC Kurusawa

    • Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 3 | Opponent: Towson | Judge: Kristen Stout

    • ~/~/ \\\\~/~/~/~/ \\\\~/~/ == Plan == === The United States federal government should contribute election monitoring assistance and constitutional reform assistance for Tunisia. === == 1AC == === The EU is sending a team to monitor upcoming elections in Tunisia—however, the US is not cooperating === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)AP 9/21 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (“EU to send 150 poll observers to Tunisia” [http:~/~/www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gcMHHrnwvqZ7hZVLTQujUlQqp3hA?docId=CNG.590c87bf3232828fdaaa5df9c4da5141.1e1]) (% class="card" %) TUNIS — (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)The EU will send 150 observers (% class="card" %) AND (% class="card" %) has become known as the "Arab Spring". (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Times;" %)The US-EU partnership is not strategic in the status quo – makes cooperation useless (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Hamilton and Burwell 10 (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Daniel S, Executive Director of the Center for Transatlantic Relations; Executive Director of the American Consortium on EU Studies; Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation Research Professor at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins, and Frances, Vice President, Director of the Program on Transatlantic Relations at the Atlantic Council, former executive director of the Center for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland, "The Setting: The United States and Europe in a G20 World," Chapter 1, ] (% class="card" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)The United States is the most important partner (% class="card" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)AND (% class="card" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)to do it, but it was painful(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: ~"Times New Roman~";" %)Coordination of democracy assistance to the Middle East is vital to retooling the alliance(%%) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Wittes and Youngs 9 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 9pt; font-family: Times;" %)[Tamara, deputy assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs at the U.S. Department of State, research fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institute, and Richard, director general of FRIDE, assistant professor at the University of Warwick, “Europe, the United States, and Middle Eastern Democracy: Repairing the Breach,” January, The Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, no 18, (%%)] (% class="card" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)As(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %) the (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Obama(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %) Administration (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)assumes office, hopes (% class="card" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)AND (% class="card" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Middle East can, cautiously, be rebuilt. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 10pt;" %)** ** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: ~"Times New Roman~";" %)Failure to change our stance towards Europe ensures they become a counterweight – accesses every impact (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Stivachtis 10 – Director of International Studies Program @ Virginia Polytechnic Institute (% class="MsoNormal" %) [Dr. Yannis. A. Stivachtis (Professor of Poli Sci @ Virginia Polytechnic Institute & Ph.D. in Politics & International Relations from Lancaster University), THE IMPERATIVE FOR TRANSATLANTIC COOPERATION,” The Research Institute for European and American Studies, 2010, pg. ] (% class="card" %) There is no doubt (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)//that //(% style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//US-European// (% class="card" %) AND (% class="card" %) the costs of continued alliance outweigh its benefits. (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Warming Tipping points coming soon – risk extinction === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Hamilton 10 – Professor of Public Ethics @ ANU (% class="MsoNormal" %) Clive Hamilton, Professor of Public Ethics in Australia, 2010, “Requiem for a Species: Why We Resist the Truth About Climate Change,” pg. 1-2 (% class="card" %) One of the most striking features of the (% class="card" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)AND (% class="card" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)will(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %) enter a long (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)struggle (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)just (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)to survive(%%). === Diseases lead to extinction === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Fox 97 (% class="NotUnderlined" %) C. William. Lieutenant COLONEL. 6/24/97. . (% class="card" %) HIV is a pandemic killer without a cure (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)AND (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)for deliberate use of weapons of mass destruction(% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %). === Poverty kills 20 million deaths a years === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Gilligan 96 – prof @ Harvard (% class="MsoNormal" %) James, professor of Psychiatry at the Harvard Medical School, Director of the Center for the Study of Violence, and a member of the Academic Advisory Council of the National Campaign Against Youth Violence. Violence: Our Deadly Epidemic and its Causes.. P. 191-196. (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)The 14 to 18 million deaths a year (% class="card" %) AND (% class="card" %) to each other, as cause to effect. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) == FW == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)The 1AC’s act of repudiation is also our own- we are civil society actors debating about disutopian imagery towards the end of transforming domestic and international immigration policy and avoiding preventable catastrophic consequences produced by irresponsible actions. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 11pt;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)This framework transforms the debate community into a weak public capable of influencing public policy through preventative foresight- we are the concerned citizenry that shape public discussion of warming and push for more cooperative IR approaches (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Kurasawa ‘4(%%), (Fuyuki, Assistant Prof. of Sociology @ York University, Cautionary Tales, Constellations Vol. 11, No. 4, Blackwell Synergy) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)In the twenty-first century,(%%) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)the (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)up’ and become institutionalized via strong publics.7(%%) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 11pt;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)And, this culture of foresight is crucial if we are to avert the impact of climate change- we must be willing to transform debate in order to galvanize cooperation on long-term issues. Anything else lets nationalism and fundamentalism fill the void. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Kurasawa ‘4(%%), (Fuyuki, Assistant Prof. of Sociology @ York University, Cautionary Tales, Constellations Vol. 11, No. 4, Blackwell Synergy) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)In addition,(%%) (% style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)__farsightedness has become a priority__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)and Asian AIDS pandemics,(%%) (% style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)__appear particularly glaring__(% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)__. __(%%) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 11pt;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)And, within this framework we must orient ourselves towards concern for future generations- the alternative is a regression into concern for only immediate problems, making warming irreversible and locking down cooperative approaches to international relations. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Kurasawa ‘4(%%), (Fuyuki, Assistant Prof. of Sociology @ York University, Cautionary Tales, Constellations Vol. 11, No. 4, Blackwell Synergy) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)In the previous section, I described how (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)associations can enact the work of preventive foresight.(%%) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt; text-decoration: none;" %)__ __ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)And, absent our framework reactive foreign policy ensures error replication and neo-con takeover- 9/11 proves foresight key and our warming impacts are disads to any alternative methods of understanding the community’s role (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Chusid ‘7(%%), (Ron, Commentator for Liberal Values Blog, The Culture of Fear Undermines America, http:~/~/liberalvaluesblog.com/?p=1287) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)One consequence of having an incompetent President and (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)__AND__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)__Iraq and many components of the Patriot Act.__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Current security logic is founded in demands for the satisfaction of immediate self-interest- a culture of preventative foresight grounded in dystopian images is key to the transition to more ethical ir epistemologies that make resolution of warming and other unethical issues possible (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Kurasawa ‘4(%%), (Fuyuki, Assistant Prof. of Sociology @ York University, Cautionary Tales, Constellations Vol. 11, No. 4, Blackwell Synergy) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)In recent years,(%%) (% style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)__the rise of a__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)__AND__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)__come into being, that of preventive foresight.__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)We must act to protect all generations equally- if we did not know which generation we would belong to prior to our birth we would choose to distribute risks equally- only acting in this way can ensure ethical social practices (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Kurasawa ‘4(%%), (Fuyuki, Assistant Prof. of Sociology @ York University, Cautionary Tales, Constellations Vol. 11, No. 4, Blackwell Synergy) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)Aside from the moral imagination, and given (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)__AND__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)__cross-generational fairness may acquire sufficient weight. __ (% style="font-size: 8pt; font-family: ~"Times New Roman~";" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Today’s local problems are tomorrow’s global crises- prevention is key to creating effective and culturally diverse solutions to problems, the alternative is a crisis-based and reactive politics (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Kurasawa ‘4(%%), (Fuyuki, Assistant Prof. of Sociology @ York University, Cautionary Tales, Constellations Vol. 11, No. 4, Blackwell Synergy) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)Independently of this contractualist justification, global civil (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)be more concerned about the here and now.(% style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: Helvetica;" %) (%%) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Rejection of predictions because we cannot master or have knowledge of the future resign themselves to the present, ushering in passive nihilism and turning the kritik (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Kurasawa ‘4(%%), (Fuyuki, Assistant Prof. of Sociology @ York University, Cautionary Tales, Constellations Vol. 11, No. 4, Blackwell Synergy) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)If fear-mongering is a misappropriation of (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)__AND__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)__endless repetition of the mistakes of the past__(% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)__. __ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt; text-decoration: none;" %)__ __ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)__ __(% class="cite" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)And, contesting possible futures is an affirmation of life- it allows us to gamble on the future as open, making subversion of disciplinary subjectivities possible (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Dunmire ‘3(%%), (Patricia, Assoc. Prof. of English @ Kent State U, Preempting the future: rhetoric and ideology of the future in political discourse, Discourse and Society, Vol 16(4): 481–513 10.1177, muse) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)Alessandrini (2003) calls for re- (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)at particular moments. (p. 275) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt; text-decoration: none;" %)__ __ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %)




10/31/11

  • Emporia 1AC Tunisia

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • \\


    • Plan

      Plan: The United States federal government should increase constitution writing support for the Tunisian National Constituent Assembly.

      Inherency
      The US has promised millions in democracy aid for Tunisia
      White House Fact Sheet 10/7
      Office of the Press Secretary, "FACT SHEET: The President's Framework for Investing in Tunisia," m.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/10/07/fact-sheet-presidents-framework-investing-tunisia AD 10/18/11
      The United States strongly supports …with a range of Tunisian universities.

      Only takes out the disads—current package only includes trade deal and loans
      RFERL 10/8
      (Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty “U.S. Promises Money To Bolster Tunisia's 'Economic Transition'” [http://www.rferl.org/content/us_promises_money_to_bolster_tunisias_economic_transition_/24352931.html]
      U.S. President Barack … longtime president Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali.

      Transmed Adv

      Now is key—failure of Tunisian transition process would cause instability
      Valdmanis 9/7
      (Richard, writing for Reuters “Analysis - Confusion reigns ahead of Tunisia vote” [http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFTRE7863DV20110907?sp=true])
      Gallopin said the large … could pose a threat.

      The outcome of the NCA far outweighs the result or process of the elections
      Mihalakas 10/6—former policy analyst with the US Department of Commerce
      (Athanasios “A Constitutional Convention for Tunisia and the Arab Spring” [http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/ISN-Insights/Detail?lng=en&id=133165&contextid734=133165&contextid735=133163&tabid=133163&dynrel=4888caa0-b3db-1461-98b9-e20e7b9c13d4,0c54e3b3-1e9c-be1e-2c24-a6a8c7060233]
      Post Election Goals All …. and to seek their opinion. 

      Failure of the NCA collapses Tunisian democracy
      McCurdy 10/1
      Daphne, POMED's Senior Research Assistant, "A Guide to Tunisia's Elections," October 2011, pomed.org/tunisian-election-guide-2011/#.TpsMp7ImSSo AD 10/16/11
      Despite confusion over the …genuine democracy taking hold in Tunisia.

      Assistance will be THE DETERMINING FACTOR for constitution cred – lack of checks and balances causes backsliding
      Dennison et al 11— policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations
      (Susi; Anthony Dworkin, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations; Nicu Popescu, senior policy fellow at the European
      Council on Foreign Relations; Nick Witney, works for the European Defence Agency “AFTER THE REVOLUTION: EUROPE AND THE TRANSITION IN TUNISIA”/ March)
      Tunisian pro-democracy activists such …push back many of the changes.

      A Tunisian constitution modeled after US federalism prevents backsliding and boosts US democracy promotion image
      Mihalakas ‘11—former policy analyst with the US Department of Commerce
      Athanasios "A Governance Vision for the Nations of the Arab Spring," 6/7/11 mihalakas.wordpress.com/2011/06/07/a-governance-vision-for-the-nations-of-the-arab-spring/#more-51 AD 10/17/11
      When federalism at the national … champion of democratic principles.

      Causes Algerian Transmed natural gas cut off, takes out 20% of the EU’s energy supply
      Ghettas 11—doctoral student @ London School of Economics and Political Science
      (Lakhdar “The Geopolitical Repercussions of the Tunisian Jasmine Revolution on North Africa”/January)
      While calm and order started …r the former president Lahbib Bourgiba.

      Transmed is the VITAL link to EU energy security—no ready alternatives
      Forbes 11
      (“Instability In Algeria Could Have Serious Energy Implications For Europe” [http://www.forbes.com/sites/energysource/2011/01/30/instability-in-algeria-could-have-serious-energy-implications-for-europe/] January 30)
      On top of the natural gas … sail to other countries that will.

      Algerian shock hits Italy and Spain especially hard
      Egging et al '08
       Ruud, Dep't of Civil and Env Enginering, University of Maryland College Park; Steven A. Gabriel, Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Applied Mathematics and Scienteific Computation Program, University of Maryland College Park, Franziska Holz, DIW Berlin, Jifang Zhuang, Chevron, "A Complementary model for the European natural gas market," 4/15/08, Energy Policy, Volume 36, Issue 7, http://www.sciencedirect.com.www2.lib.ku.edu:2048/science/article/pii/S030142150800061X#sec3.3
      Algerian natural gas production … turning to the world-wide LNG market.

      The fragile European economy won’t survive a weakened Italian or Spanish economy—default triggers collapse, spills over to the world economy
      Francis 9/14/11
      David reporter for the Fiscal Times, correspondent of the Christian Science Monitor, Financial Times Deutschland, and Deutsche Welle. contributing writer to World Politics Review,  and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, spoken about his reporting at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service, the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies, and the World Affairs Council of Pittsburgh “China and the Doomsday Scenario for Europe,” Fiscal Times, 9/14/11
      http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2011/09/14/China-and-the-Doomsday-Scenario-for-Europe.aspx#page1, AD 9/16/11
      What was once considered … current age of austerity.

      Economic collapse causes global nuclear war
      Mead 9—Senior Fellow in US Foreign Policy Studies @ Council on Foreign Relations
      Walter Russell, Only Makes You Stronger, The New Republic, 2-4-09, http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=1
      The greatest danger both …may still have to fight.
      Economic decline causes war – studies prove
      Royal 10
      (Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises, in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)
      Less intuitive is how … and deserves more attention.
      Russia would be the only feasible fill in—Russia will use the EU’s reliance as a political weapon for expansionism
      Cohen 9 Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies @ the Heritage Foundation
      (“Can Europe Be Taken Hostage by Russia’s Natural Gas Supply?” [http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=1071&pageid=20&pagename=Security]/February 9)
      It is clear that Russia …stand up to Russian bullying.

      Russian expansionism leads to prolif, regional instability, conflict, and nuclear use
      Cook 98
      Major, The Empire Strikes Back: Russia's Strategy is Still a Threat to Canada's Security, http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/doctrine/0027.htm
      Russia has come … threat as during the Cold War.
      High magnitude
      Bostrom 2
      Nick, PhD, Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9, March 2002, http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html
      A much greater existential … encounter in the 21st century.
      This leads to extinction
      Engdahl 7
      F. William, February 18, pg. http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/engdahl/2007/0218.html
      Putin also did not have … civilization in the process. 

      Democracy Adv
      Tunisian transition is the litmus test for the Arab spring—success in Tunisia key to spreading democracy in the region
      Masmoudi 11—president of the Center for the Study of Islam & Democracy
      (Radwan “Tunisia should be the priority” [http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/05/tunisia-should-be-the-priority/] May 18)
      The Arab world desperately … repercussions in the region.

      Tunisia key model, but US support is key
      Allen 10/17—NED Visiting Fellow
      Michael, “Tunisia: home-grown revolution needs foreign support” Democracy Digest 1/27/11, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/01/home-grown-revolution-needs-foreign-support-say-tunisians/, AD 10/17/11
      There are promising signs … democracy abroad,” he contends. 

      Successful revision of the constitution key to longterm sustainability and prevent backsliding  
      Paciello 11—researcher @ the International Affairs institute, specializes in Mediterranean and ME studies
      (Maria Cristina, MEDPRO Technical Report No. 3 “Tunisia: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition”/ May)
      Legislative elections are crucial in …. in various interviews.59

      Now is the key time to act—the risk of backsliding is at an all time high
      Spengemann 11—Senior Constitutional Officer of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq
      (Sven, “Networks and an Arab Summer” [http://globalbrief.ca/blog/2011/06/27/can-the-arab-spring-turn-into-summer/] June 27)
      It remains too early …, needs and interests.

      Backsliding causes ME instability and terrorism
      Hague 8/8—British Foreign Secretary
      (William “Helping the Arab Spring succeed is Britain's cause too” [http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23976502-helping-the-arab-spring-succeed-is-britains-cause-too.do])
      But in an integrated world, … have the option of inaction.

      Worst possible time for a Middle East war—Saudi Arabia and Iran are struggling for control—means they use any conflict as a cover and ny tension immediately escalates to conflict
      Kinzer 10/20 - professor of IR at Boston University
      Stephen, author of "Reset: Iran, Turkey, and America's Future," The NYT "Iran, the Saudis and the New 'Great Game'" www.nytimes.com/2011/10/21/opinion/21iht-edkinzer21.html?_r=1 AD 10/20/11
      Whether the Iranian … by this semi-clandestine war.

      A threatened Saudi Arabia would precipitate a Middle Eastern arms race
      Spindle and Corker ‘11
      [Bill and Margaret, WSJ< “Saudi Arabia and Iran wage a new Cold Warin the Middle East,” 4/16/11, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704116404576262744106483816.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories, AD 5/25/11]
      But many worry that …the use of nuclear weapons.

      Middle Eastern arms races end in nuclear war
      Rosen in ‘6—national security professor @Harvard
      [Stephen Peter, Professor of National Security at Harvard, "After Proliferation", Foreign Affairs, Sept/Oct 2006, p. asp ]
      During the Cold War, the United … use of nuclear weapons.
      Independently, any Middle East instability goes global
      London 10—president of the Hudson Institute
      (Herbert I. London, President of the Hudson Institute, a New York University based political think tank, and professor of Humanities at New York University, Hudson New York, 6/28/10, http://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east)
      The coming storm in the …, the tent collapses.
      Most likely scenario for conflict
      Ferguson 7 – prof of history @ Harvard and senior fellow @ Hoover
      Niall Ferguson, professor of history @ Harvard, and sr. fellow @ the Hoover Institution. “This heat is a recipe for Armageddon”. June 17, 2007. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/06/17/do1701.xml
      For some time I have been …. recipe for Armageddon.
      Terrorism causes extinction
      Speice 6
      Speice, Patrick F., Jr. "Negligence and nuclear nonproliferation: eliminating the current liability barrier to bilateral U.S.-Russian nonproliferation assistance programs." William and Mary Law Review 47.4 (Feb 2006): 1427(59). Expanded Academic ASAP.
      With the end of the Cold … escalate to the use of nuclear weapons.53



10/21/11

  • T Democracy Assistance 2AC

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • //


      ////


      //

      we meet- Democracy assistance includes constitution writing.

      Carothers ‘2k

      Thomas Carothers, he vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is the founder and director of the Democracy and Rule of L




10/31/11

  • Emporia 1AC Tunisia

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • //


      ////


      //Plan

       

      Plan: The United States federal government should increase constitution writing support for the Tunisian National Constituent Assembly.

       

      Inherency

      The US has promised millions in democracy aid for Tunisia

      White House Fact Sheet 10/7

      Office of the Press Secretary, "FACT SHEET: The President's Framework for Investing in Tunisia," m.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/10/07/fact-sheet-presidents-framework-investing-tunisia AD 10/18/11

      The United States strongly supports the Tunisian people

      AND

      established partnerships with a range of Tunisian universities.

       

      Only takes out the disads—current package only includes trade deal and loans

      RFERL 10/8

      (Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty “U.S. Promises Money To Bolster Tunisia's 'Economic Transition'” [http://www.rferl.org/content/us_promises_money_to_bolster_tunisias_economic_transition_/24352931.html]

      U.S. President Barack Obama has

      AND

      longtime president Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali.

       

       

       

       

       

      Transmed Adv

       

      Now is key—failure of Tunisian transition process would cause instability

      Valdmanis 9/7

      (Richard, writing for Reuters “Analysis - Confusion reigns ahead of Tunisia vote” [http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFTRE7863DV20110907?sp=true])

      Gallopin said the large number of political parties

      AND

      to stay in power could pose a threat.

       

       

      The outcome of the NCA far outweighs the result or process of the elections

      Mihalakas 10/6—former policy analyst with the US Department of Commerce

      (Athanasios “A Constitutional Convention for Tunisia and the Arab Spring” [http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/ISN-Insights/Detail?lng=en&id=133165&contextid734=133165&contextid735=133163&tabid=133163&dynrel=4888caa0-b3db-1461-98b9-e20e7b9c13d4,0c54e3b3-1e9c-be1e-2c24-a6a8c7060233]

      Post Election Goals All legitimacy problems can,

      AND

      and governance issues and to seek their opinion.

       

       

      Failure of the NCA collapses Tunisian democracy

      McCurdy 10/1

      Daphne, POMED's Senior Research Assistant, "A Guide to Tunisia's Elections," October 2011, pomed.org/tunisian-election-guide-2011/#.TpsMp7ImSSo AD 10/16/11

      Despite confusion over the electoral process and dissatisfaction

      AND

      prospects for genuine democracy taking hold in Tunisia.

       

      Assistance will be THE DETERMINING FACTOR for constitution cred – lack of checks and balances causes backsliding

      Dennison et al 11— policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations

      (Susi; Anthony Dworkin, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations; Nicu Popescu, senior policy fellow at the European

      Council on Foreign Relations; Nick Witney, works for the European Defence Agency “AFTER THE REVOLUTION: EUROPE AND THE TRANSITION IN TUNISIA”/ March)

      Tunisian pro-democracy activists such as Bensedrine

      AND

      system and push back many of the changes.

      A Tunisian constitution modeled after US federalism prevents backsliding and boosts US democracy promotion image

      Mihalakas ‘11—former policy analyst with the US Department of Commerce

      Athanasios "A Governance Vision for the Nations of the Arab Spring," 6/7/11 mihalakas.wordpress.com/2011/06/07/a-governance-vision-for-the-nations-of-the-arab-spring/#more-51 AD 10/17/11

      When federalism at the national level is applied

      AND

      world stage as a champion of democratic principles.

       

       

       

       

      Causes Algerian Transmed natural gas cut off, takes out 20% of the EU’s energy supply

      Ghettas 11—doctoral student @ London School of Economics and Political Science

      (Lakhdar “The Geopolitical Repercussions of the Tunisian Jasmine Revolution on North Africa”/January)

      While calm and order started to be restored

      AND

      1984, under the former president Lahbib Bourgiba.

       

      Transmed is the VITAL link to EU energy security—no ready alternatives

      Forbes 11

      (“Instability In Algeria Could Have Serious Energy Implications For Europe” [http://www.forbes.com/sites/energysource/2011/01/30/instability-in-algeria-could-have-serious-energy-implications-for-europe/] January 30)

      On top of the natural gas flowing to

      AND

      will simply sail to other countries that will.

       

      Algerian shock hits Italy and Spain especially hard

      Egging et al '08

       Ruud, Dep't of Civil and Env Enginering, University of Maryland College Park; Steven A. Gabriel, Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Applied Mathematics and Scienteific Computation Program, University of Maryland College Park, Franziska Holz, DIW Berlin, Jifang Zhuang, Chevron, "A Complementary model for the European natural gas market," 4/15/08, Energy Policy, Volume 36, Issue 7, http://www.sciencedirect.com.www2.lib.ku.edu:2048/science/article/pii/S030142150800061X#sec3.3

      Algerian natural gas production is important for the

      AND

      turning to the world-wide LNG market.

       

      The fragile European economy won’t survive a weakened Italian or Spanish economy—default triggers collapse, spills over to the world economy

      Francis 9/14/11

      David reporter for the Fiscal Times, correspondent of the Christian Science Monitor, Financial Times Deutschland, and Deutsche Welle. contributing writer to World Politics Review,  and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, spoken about his reporting at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service, the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies, and the World Affairs Council of Pittsburgh “China and the Doomsday Scenario for Europe,” Fiscal Times, 9/14/11

      http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2011/09/14/China-and-the-Doomsday-Scenario-for-Europe.aspx#page1, AD 9/16/11

      What was once considered a worst-case

      AND

      is unthinkable in the current age of austerity.

       

      Economic collapse causes global nuclear war

      Mead 9—Senior Fellow in US Foreign Policy Studies @ Council on Foreign Relations

      Walter Russell, Only Makes You Stronger, The New Republic, 2-4-09, http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=1

      The greatest danger both to U.S

      AND

      Iranian influence and increase the dependence of the oil

      sheikdoms on U.S. protection.

      AND

      track, we may still have to fight.

      Economic decline causes war – studies prove

      Royal 10

      (Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises, in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)

      Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline

      AND

      economic-security debate and deserves more attention.

      Russia would be the only feasible fill in—Russia will use the EU’s reliance as a political weapon for expansionism
      Cohen 9-- Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies @ the Heritage Foundation

      (“Can Europe Be Taken Hostage by Russia’s Natural Gas Supply?” [http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=1071&pageid=20&pagename=Security]/February 9)

      It is clear that Russia has not ceased

      AND

      of energy and stand up to Russian bullying.

       

      Russian expansionism leads to prolif, regional instability, conflict, and nuclear use

      Cook 98

      Major, The Empire Strikes Back: Russia's Strategy is Still a Threat to Canada's Security, http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/doctrine/0027.htm

      Russia has come a long way since the

      AND

      the same threat as during the Cold War.

      High magnitude

      Bostrom 2

      Nick, PhD, Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9, March 2002, http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html

      A much greater existential risk emerged with the

      AND

      that we will encounter in the 21st century.

      This leads to extinction

      Engdahl 7

      F. William, February 18, pg. http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/engdahl/2007/0218.html

      Putin also did not have North Korea,

      AND

      perhaps, end human civilization in the process. 

       

       

       

      Democracy Adv

      Tunisian transition is the litmus test for the Arab spring—success in Tunisia key to spreading democracy in the region

      Masmoudi 11—president of the Center for the Study of Islam & Democracy

      (Radwan “Tunisia should be the priority” [http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/05/tunisia-should-be-the-priority/] May 18)

      The Arab world desperately needs a successful working

      AND

      here will have catastrophic repercussions in the region.

       

       

      Tunisia key model, but US support is key

      Allen 10/17—NED Visiting Fellow

      Michael, “Tunisia: home-grown revolution needs foreign support” Democracy Digest 1/27/11, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/01/home-grown-revolution-needs-foreign-support-say-tunisians/, AD 10/17/11

      There are promising signs that the formation of

      AND

      vigorous support of democracy abroad,” he contends.

       

       

      Successful revision of the constitution key to longterm sustainability and prevent backsliding

      Paciello 11—researcher @ the International Affairs institute, specializes in Mediterranean and ME studies

      (Maria Cristina, MEDPRO Technical Report No. 3 “Tunisia: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition”/ May)

      Legislative elections are crucial in determining the direction

      AND

      the Prime Minister argued in various interviews.59

       

      Now is the key time to act—the risk of backsliding is at an all time high

       11—Senior Constitutional Officer of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq

      (Sven, “Networks and an Arab Summer” [http://globalbrief.ca/blog/2011/06/27/can-the-arab-spring-turn-into-summer/] June 27)

      It remains too early to view the protest

      AND

      responsive to their rights, needs and interests.

       

      Backsliding causes ME instability and terrorism

      Hague 8/8—British Foreign Secretary

      (William “Helping the Arab Spring succeed is Britain's cause too” [http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23976502-helping-the-arab-spring-succeed-is-britains-cause-too.do])

      But in an integrated world, no amount

      AND

      we do not have the option of inaction.

       

      Worst possible time for a Middle East war—Saudi Arabia and Iran are struggling for control—means they use any conflict as a cover and ny tension immediately escalates to conflict

      Kinzer 10/20 - professor of IR at Boston University

      Stephen, author of "Reset: Iran, Turkey, and America's Future," The NYT "Iran, the Saudis and the New 'Great Game'" www.nytimes.com/2011/10/21/opinion/21iht-edkinzer21.html?_r=1 AD 10/20/11

      Whether the Iranian government actually sought to hire

      AND

      be shaped by this semi-clandestine war.

       

      A threatened Saudi Arabia would precipitate a Middle Eastern arms race

      Spindle and Corker ‘11

      [Bill and Margaret, WSJ< “Saudi Arabia and Iran wage a new Cold Warin the Middle East,” 4/16/11, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704116404576262744106483816.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories, AD 5/25/11]

      But many worry that the toll could wind

      AND

      it has renounced the use of nuclear weapons.

       

      Middle Eastern arms races end in nuclear war

      Rosen in ‘6—national security professor @Harvard

      [Stephen Peter, Professor of National Security at Harvard, "After Proliferation", Foreign Affairs, Sept/Oct 2006, p. asp ]

      During the Cold War, the United States

      AND

      the accidental or unauthorized use of nuclear weapons.

      Independently, any Middle East instability goes global

      London 10—president of the Hudson Institute

      (Herbert I. London, President of the Hudson Institute, a New York University based political think tank, and professor of Humanities at New York University, Hudson New York, 6/28/10, )

      The coming storm in the Middle East is

      AND

      if one, falls, the tent collapses.

      Most likely scenario for conflict

      Ferguson 7 – prof of history @ Harvard and senior fellow @ Hoover

      Niall Ferguson, professor of history @ Harvard, and sr. fellow @ the Hoover Institution. “This heat is a recipe for Armageddon”. June 17, 2007. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/06/17/do1701.xml

      For some time I have been warning that

      AND

      , and you have a recipe for Armageddon.

      Terrorism causes extinction

      Speice 6

      Speice, Patrick F., Jr. "Negligence and nuclear nonproliferation: eliminating the current liability barrier to bilateral U.S.-Russian nonproliferation assistance programs." William and Mary Law Review 47.4 (Feb 2006): 1427(59). Expanded Academic ASAP.

      With the end of the Cold War in

      AND

      escalate to the use of nuclear weapons.53

       

       

       

       

       

       




10/31/11

  • New Backsliding card 1AC UCO

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:




11/04/11

  • Wake 1AC

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Plan

       

      Plan: The United States federal government should increase constitution writing support for the Tunisian National Constituent Assembly.

       

      Inherency

      The US has promised millions in democracy aid for Tunisia

      White House Fact Sheet 10/7

      Office of the Press Secretary, "FACT SHEET: The President's Framework for Investing in Tunisia," m.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/10/07/fact-sheet-presidents-framework-investing-tunisia AD 10/18/11

      The United States strongly supports the Tunisian people

      AND

      established partnerships with a range of Tunisian universities.

       

      Only takes out the disads—current package only includes trade deal and loans

      RFERL 10/8

      (Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty “U.S. Promises Money To Bolster Tunisia's 'Economic Transition'” [http://www.rferl.org/content/us_promises_money_to_bolster_tunisias_economic_transition_/24352931.html]

      U.S. President Barack Obama has

      AND

      longtime president Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali.

       

       

       

       

       

      Transmed Adv

       

      Now is key—failure of Tunisian transition process would cause instability

      Valdmanis 9/7

      (Richard, writing for Reuters “Analysis - Confusion reigns ahead of Tunisia vote” [http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFTRE7863DV20110907?sp=true])

      Gallopin said the large number of political parties

      AND

      to stay in power could pose a threat.

       

       

      No consensus on constitution-writing process now – uncertain process and competing agendas

      Samti 11/8

      Farah, Tunisia Live, "Ennahda, CPR and Ettakatol: Ongoing Negotiations to Reach Consensus," www.tunisia-live.net/2011/11/08/ennahda-cpr-and-ettakatol-ongoing-negotiations-to-reach-consensus/ AD 11/9/11

      Several newspapers are reporting that another meeting between

      AND

      for both parliamentary and semi-presidential regimes.

       

       

      Failure of the NCA collapses Tunisian democracy

      McCurdy 10/1

      Daphne, POMED's Senior Research Assistant, "A Guide to Tunisia's Elections," October 2011, pomed.org/tunisian-election-guide-2011/#.TpsMp7ImSSo AD 10/16/11

      Despite confusion over the electoral process and dissatisfaction

      AND

      prospects for genuine democracy taking hold in Tunisia.

       

      Assistance will be THE DETERMINING FACTOR for constitution cred – lack of checks and balances causes backsliding

      Dennison et al 11— policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations

      (Susi; Anthony Dworkin, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations; Nicu Popescu, senior policy fellow at the European

      Council on Foreign Relations; Nick Witney, works for the European Defence Agency “AFTER THE REVOLUTION: EUROPE AND THE TRANSITION IN TUNISIA”/ March)

      Tunisian pro-democracy activists such as Bensedrine

      AND

      system and push back many of the changes.

      A Tunisian constitution modeled after US federalism prevents backsliding and boosts US democracy promotion image

      Mihalakas ‘11—former policy analyst with the US Department of Commerce

      Athanasios "A Governance Vision for the Nations of the Arab Spring," 6/7/11 mihalakas.wordpress.com/2011/06/07/a-governance-vision-for-the-nations-of-the-arab-spring/#more-51 AD 10/17/11

      When federalism at the national level is applied

      AND

      world stage as a champion of democratic principles.

       

       

       

       

      Causes Algerian Transmed natural gas cut off, takes out 20% of the EU’s energy supply

      Ghettas 11—doctoral student @ London School of Economics and Political Science

      (Lakhdar “The Geopolitical Repercussions of the Tunisian Jasmine Revolution on North Africa”/January)

      While calm and order started to be restored

      AND

      1984, under the former president Lahbib Bourgiba.

       

      Transmed is the VITAL link to EU energy security—no ready alternatives

      Forbes 11

      (“Instability In Algeria Could Have Serious Energy Implications For Europe” [http://www.forbes.com/sites/energysource/2011/01/30/instability-in-algeria-could-have-serious-energy-implications-for-europe/] January 30)

      On top of the natural gas flowing to

      AND

      will simply sail to other countries that will.

      Pipeline structure means the EU can’t adapt to Algeria cutoff

      Ratner '11

      Michael, Analyst in Energy Policy for the Congressional Research Service, and Neelesh Nerurkar, Specialist in Energy Policy, "Middle East and North Africa Unrest: Implications for Oil and Natural Gas Markets," 3/10/11www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/R41683.pdf, AD 9/16/11

      Europe is the region most vulnerable to a

      AND

      almost flat since the unrest started in Libya.

       

      Algerian shock hits Italy and Spain especially hard

      Egging et al '08

       Ruud, Dep't of Civil and Env Enginering, University of Maryland College Park; Steven A. Gabriel, Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Applied Mathematics and Scienteific Computation Program, University of Maryland College Park, Franziska Holz, DIW Berlin, Jifang Zhuang, Chevron, "A Complementary model for the European natural gas market," 4/15/08, Energy Policy, Volume 36, Issue 7, http://www.sciencedirect.com.www2.lib.ku.edu:2048/science/article/pii/S030142150800061X#sec3.3

      Algerian natural gas production is important for the

      AND

      turning to the world-wide LNG market.

       

      The fragile European economy won’t survive a weakened Italian or Spanish economy—default triggers collapse, spills over to the world economy

      Francis 9/14/11

      David reporter for the Fiscal Times, correspondent of the Christian Science Monitor, Financial Times Deutschland, and Deutsche Welle. contributing writer to World Politics Review,  and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, spoken about his reporting at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service, the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies, and the World Affairs Council of Pittsburgh “China and the Doomsday Scenario for Europe,” Fiscal Times, 9/14/11

      http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2011/09/14/China-and-the-Doomsday-Scenario-for-Europe.aspx#page1, AD 9/16/11

      What was once considered a worst-case

      AND

      is unthinkable in the current age of austerity.

       

      Economic collapse causes global nuclear war

      Mead 9—Senior Fellow in US Foreign Policy Studies @ Council on Foreign Relations

      Walter Russell, Only Makes You Stronger, The New Republic, 2-4-09, http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=1

      The greatest danger both to U.S

      AND

      Iranian influence and increase the dependence of the oil

      sheikdoms on U.S. protection.

      AND

      track, we may still have to fight.

      Economic decline causes war – studies prove

      Royal 10

      (Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises, in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)

      Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline

      AND

      economic-security debate and deserves more attention.

      Russia would be the only feasible fill in—Russia will use the EU’s reliance as a political weapon for expansionism
      Cohen 9-- Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies @ the Heritage Foundation

      (“Can Europe Be Taken Hostage by Russia’s Natural Gas Supply?” [http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=1071&pageid=20&pagename=Security]/February 9)

      It is clear that Russia has not ceased

      AND

      of energy and stand up to Russian bullying.

       

      Russian expansionism leads to prolif, regional instability, conflict, and nuclear use

      Cook 98

      Major, The Empire Strikes Back: Russia's Strategy is Still a Threat to Canada's Security, http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/doctrine/0027.htm

      Russia has come a long way since the

      AND

      the same threat as during the Cold War.

      High magnitude

      Bostrom 2

      Nick, PhD, Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9, March 2002, http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html

      A much greater existential risk emerged with the

      AND

      that we will encounter in the 21st century.

      This leads to extinction

      Engdahl 7

      F. William, February 18, pg. http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/engdahl/2007/0218.html

      Putin also did not have North Korea,

      AND

      perhaps, end human civilization in the process. 

       

       

       

      Democracy Adv

      Tunisian transition is the litmus test for the Arab spring—success in Tunisia key to spreading democracy in the region

      Masmoudi 11—president of the Center for the Study of Islam & Democracy

      (Radwan “Tunisia should be the priority” [http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/05/tunisia-should-be-the-priority/] May 18)

      The Arab world desperately needs a successful working

      AND

      here will have catastrophic repercussions in the region.

       

       

      US intervention prerequisite to the success of Tunisia – Ukraine proves

      Brinkley 10/30

      [Joel, San Francisco Chronicle “Libya, Tunisia face obstacles on road to democracy” [http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/10/29/IN241LM2KB.DTL])

      But now is also a time to regard

      AND

      are manifest, the risks from failure grave.

       

      Says yes— local actors recognize need for assistance

      Allen 1/27—NED Visiting Fellow

      Michael, “Tunisia: home-grown revolution needs foreign support” Democracy Digest 1/27/11, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/01/home-grown-revolution-needs-foreign-support-say-tunisians/, AD 10/17/11

      There are promising signs that the formation of

      AND

      vigorous support of democracy abroad,” he contends.

       

      Successful revision of the constitution key to longterm sustainability and prevent backsliding

      Paciello 11—researcher @ the International Affairs institute, specializes in Mediterranean and ME studies

      (Maria Cristina, MEDPRO Technical Report No. 3 “Tunisia: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition”/ May)

      Legislative elections are crucial in determining the direction

      AND

      the Prime Minister argued in various interviews.59

       

      Now is the key time to act—the risk of backsliding is at an all time high

       11—Senior Constitutional Officer of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq

      (Sven, “Networks and an Arab Summer” [http://globalbrief.ca/blog/2011/06/27/can-the-arab-spring-turn-into-summer/] June 27)

      It remains too early to view the protest

      AND

      responsive to their rights, needs and interests.

       

      Backsliding causes ME instability and terrorism

      Hague 8/8—British Foreign Secretary

      (William “Helping the Arab Spring succeed is Britain's cause too” [http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23976502-helping-the-arab-spring-succeed-is-britains-cause-too.do])

      But in an integrated world, no amount

      AND

      we do not have the option of inaction.

       

      Worst possible time for a Middle East war—Saudi Arabia and Iran are struggling for control—means they use any conflict as a cover and ny tension immediately escalates to conflict

      Kinzer 10/20 - professor of IR at Boston University

      Stephen, author of "Reset: Iran, Turkey, and America's Future," The NYT "Iran, the Saudis and the New 'Great Game'" www.nytimes.com/2011/10/21/opinion/21iht-edkinzer21.html?_r=1 AD 10/20/11

      Whether the Iranian government actually sought to hire

      AND

      be shaped by this semi-clandestine war.

       

      A threatened Saudi Arabia would precipitate a Middle Eastern arms race

      Spindle and Corker ‘11

      [Bill and Margaret, WSJ< “Saudi Arabia and Iran wage a new Cold Warin the Middle East,” 4/16/11, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704116404576262744106483816.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories, AD 5/25/11]

      But many worry that the toll could wind

      AND

      it has renounced the use of nuclear weapons.

       

      Middle Eastern arms races end in nuclear war

      Rosen in ‘6—national security professor @Harvard

      [Stephen Peter, Professor of National Security at Harvard, "After Proliferation", Foreign Affairs, Sept/Oct 2006, p. asp ]

      During the Cold War, the United States

      AND

      the accidental or unauthorized use of nuclear weapons.

      Independently, any Middle East instability goes global

      London 10—president of the Hudson Institute

      (Herbert I. London, President of the Hudson Institute, a New York University based political think tank, and professor of Humanities at New York University, Hudson New York, 6/28/10, )

      The coming storm in the Middle East is

      AND

      if one, falls, the tent collapses.

      Most likely scenario for conflict

      Ferguson 7 – prof of history @ Harvard and senior fellow @ Hoover

      Niall Ferguson, professor of history @ Harvard, and sr. fellow @ the Hoover Institution. “This heat is a recipe for Armageddon”. June 17, 2007. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/06/17/do1701.xml

      For some time I have been warning that

      AND

      , and you have a recipe for Armageddon.

      Terrorism causes extinction

      Speice 6

      Speice, Patrick F., Jr. "Negligence and nuclear nonproliferation: eliminating the current liability barrier to bilateral U.S.-Russian nonproliferation assistance programs." William and Mary Law Review 47.4 (Feb 2006): 1427(59). Expanded Academic ASAP.

      With the end of the Cold War in

      AND

      escalate to the use of nuclear weapons.53

       

       

       

       

       




11/04/11

  • Round Reports

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Aff:Arizona University CG
      Round #  5 Tournament: Shirley
      vs:Wichita State OM
      Judge:Sarah Spring

       

       

      Plan Text

      Wiki

      Tunisia

       

      1ac Advantages

      Transcend (wiki)

      Democracy (wiki)

       

      2ac Offense

      Key to crush heg: heg good

       

      Winners win

       

      1ar Strategy

      Russia war outweighs

      Thumpers

      Obama

      Push plan

       

      2ar Strategy
      Kick democracy advocacy

      Russia outweighs

      Obama not push plan

      Thumpers 




11/13/11

  • Shirley Aff Cites vs. Emporia WW

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • 1AC

       

      Our roleplaying interpretation is that we should position ourselves as global civil society actors debating competing dystopian images towards the end of transforming international policy and avoiding impending catastrophe Limited by the topic

       

      this framework transforms the debate community into a weak public capable of influencing public policy through preventative foresight

      Kurasawa ‘4, (Fuyuki, Assistant Prof. of Sociology @ York University, Cautionary Tales, Constellations Vol. 11, No. 4, Blackwell Synergy)

      In the twenty-first century, the

      AND

      up’ and become  institutionalized via strong publics.7   

       

      and, a culture of preventative foresight in international public policy is key to solve multiple scenarios for extinction- adopting our framework is key

      Kurasawa ‘4, (Fuyuki, Assistant Prof. of Sociology @ York University, Cautionary Tales, Constellations Vol. 11, No. 4, Blackwell Synergy)

      In addition, farsightedness has become a priority

      AND

      and Asian AIDS pandemics, appear  particularly glaring.  

       

      and, within this framework we must orient ourselves towards concern for future generations- the alternative is a regression into concern for only immediate problems, ensuring procrastination and an unethical disregard for those who follow us

      Kurasawa ‘4, (Fuyuki, Assistant Prof. of Sociology @ York University, Cautionary Tales, Constellations Vol. 11, No. 4, Blackwell Synergy)

      In the previous section, I described how

      AND

      associations can enact the work of preventive foresight.

       

      Attention given to micropolitics obscures actual successes of disfavored groups and only benefits the privileged

      Patricia Hill Collins, Prof. of Sociology - Dept. of African-American Studies at Univ. of Cincinnati, Fighting Words, 1998, 135-7

      In this academic context, postmodern treatment of

      AND

      . Ironically, their privilege may actually increase.

       

       

       

      “The local” replicates the call for authenticity which destroys representation

      Gareth Griffiths, prof of English @ University of Western Australia, 1994, (De-scribing Empire. p. 71)

      Articles like this are an increasingly typical way

      AND

      Aboriginal culture in any meaningful or legitimate way.

       

       

      2AC—State Good

       

       

      Abandoning democratic processes condemns the world to Rwandas and Bosnias—only engaging with the state can progressivism be possible

      Wolin 4—history at City University of New York 

      Richard, The Seduction of Unreason, p. xii-xv

      During the 1980s and 1990s the academic left

      AND

      entirely these potentials means abandoning progressive politics altogether.

      Abdicating our relation with the state guarnatees the neocons win

      Boggs 97—Professor of Social Sciences at National University in LA

      Carl.  The great retreat: Decline of the public sphere in late twentieth-century America. Theory and Society, Vol. 26, No. 6, Dec., 1997

      The decline of the public sphere in late

      AND

      interests that had vanished from civil society.75

       

      Policy training is uniquely valuable for social advocacy—their engagement is defensive and doesn’t solve our advantages

      Themba-Nixon 2k—Exec Director of the Praxis Project

      Makani, Colorlines, Changing the Rules: What Public Policy Means for Organizing  . Vol. 3, Iss. 2; pg. 12, proquest

      "This is all about policy," a

      AND

      we must be committed to making it so.

      2AC Perm

       

      Perm: endorse the method of the 1AC and the method of the 1NC

      Even if they win that their interpretion of debate is good, it is bad to reject the affirmative model—our method of is a vital part of democracy and the alternative robs their goal of democracy

      Tonn 5—Prof of Communication @ Maryland

      Mari Boor, Taking Conversation, Dialogue, and Therapy Public, Rhetoric & Public Affairs 8.3 (2005) 405-430, muse

      This widespread recognition that access to public deliberative

      AND

      the very pulse and lifeblood of democracy itself.

       

      2AC narratives bad

       

      The demand for recognition as victims via the process of narration re-inscribes relationships that created the oppression in the first place, turns the case and creates more oppression.

       

      Oliver 2K4 (Kelly, Chair of the Philosophy Department and Professor of Women’s

      Studies at Stony Brook University Witnessing and Testimony Parallax, 2004, vol. 10, no. 1, 79–88 http://www.vanderbilt.edu/ AnS/philosophy/faculty/parallax.pdf)

       

      Contemporary debates in social theory around issues of

      AND

      begin to think of the recognition of difference.

       

       

      2AC Standpoint Epistemology

      Turning debate into only a question of social location is bad—our argument ISN’T that we should reject personal experiences, etc, but that they should be used to SUPPLEMENT other forms of evidence and arguments.  A couple of reasons

       

      1) their version of debate makes it impossible to evaluate who should win and creates non falsifiable claims

      Rolin, 6 [Kristina Rolin, Academy of Finland Research Fellow at Helsinki School of Economics , The Bias Paradox in Feminist Standpoint Epistemology, Episteme: A Journal of Social Epistemology 3.1 (2006) 125-136, muse]

      Sandra Harding's feminist standpoint epistemology is an ambitious

      AND

      its critical edge (Antony 1993, 189).

       

       

      2AC Ballot Bad

      **Demagogues distort the truth through rhetorical effectiveness with the end goal of personal gain – i.e. the ballot.

      Lomas, 61

      [Charles W., Associate Professor of Speech at UCLA, “The Rhetoric of Demagoguery,” Western Speech, Summer, pg. 161-2]

      "What is demagoguery ? The historical origins

      AND

      to identify and condemn demagoguery wherever it appears.

       

      2AC Alt Doesn’t Solve

      Domestic focus should not be the starting point—we need to create international connections and challenge international racism and colonialist oppression

      Bush 10

      Reflections on Black Internationalism As Strategy

      Author: Rod Bush  http://sdonline.org/38/reflections-on-black-internationalism-as-strategy/

      I am always puzzled by those within the

      AND

      that is democratic, egalitarian, and just.

       

       

      1AR UQ lol

      We control uniqueness

      Pinker 9-24-2011

      (Steven, Professor of Psychology at Harvard University, “Violence Vanquished: We believe our world is riddled with terror and war, but we may be living in the most peaceable era in human existence. Why brutality is declining and empathy is on the rise,” 9-24-2011, j.com/article/SB10001424053111904106704576583203589408180.html?mod=googlenews_wsj)

      On the day this article appears, you

      AND

      of civilization and enlightenment that made it possible.

       

       

       




11/13/11

  • USC 1AC

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Plan

       

      Plan: The United States federal government should increase constitution writing support for the Tunisian National Constituent Assembly.

       

       

       

      Transmed Adv

       

      Failure of Tunisian transition process causes instability

      Valdmanis ‘11

      Richard, writing for Reuters “Analysis - Confusion reigns ahead of Tunisia vote” 9/7/11 [http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFTRE7863DV20110907?sp=true]

      Gallopin said the large number of political parties

      AND

      to stay in power could pose a threat.

       

       

      Outcome of constitution-writing process uncertain—distractions and coalitions

      Ghali 12/9

      Amine Ghali is a Program Director at the Tunis-based Al Kawakibi Democracy Transition Center, and work on democracy, reform, and transition issues in the Arab world. He is a member of Tunisia’s National Commission to Investigate Corruption. , "Tunisia’s Constitutional Process: The Road Ahead," 12/9/11 Sada, of the Carnegie ENdowment for International Peace,carnegieendowment.org/sada/2011/12/09/tunisia-s-constitutional-process-road-ahead/84zy AD 12/27/11

      Following the October 23 elections to Tunisia’s 217

      AND

      its “ownership” by all Tunisians. /

       

       

      Assistance will be THE DETERMINING FACTOR for constitution cred – lack of checks and balances ensures failure

      Dennison et al 11— policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations

      (Susi; Anthony Dworkin, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations; Nicu Popescu, senior policy fellow at the European

      Council on Foreign Relations; Nick Witney, works for the European Defence Agency “AFTER THE REVOLUTION: EUROPE AND THE TRANSITION IN TUNISIA”/ March)

      Tunisian pro-democracy activists such as Bensedrine

      AND

      system and push back many of the changes.

      A Tunisian constitution modeled after US federalism ensures democratic advances and stability

      Mihalakas ‘11—former policy analyst with the US Department of Commerce

      Athanasios "A Governance Vision for the Nations of the Arab Spring," 6/7/11 mihalakas.wordpress.com/2011/06/07/a-governance-vision-for-the-nations-of-the-arab-spring/#more-51 AD 10/17/11

      When federalism at the national level is applied

      AND

      world stage as a champion of democratic principles.

       

       

       

       

      Failure of the Constituent Assembly collapses Tunisian democracy

      McCurdy 10/1

      Daphne, POMED's Senior Research Assistant, "A Guide to Tunisia's Elections," October 2011, pomed.org/tunisian-election-guide-2011/#.TpsMp7ImSSo AD 10/16/11

      Despite confusion over the electoral process and dissatisfaction

      AND

      prospects for genuine democracy taking hold in Tunisia.

       

      Tunisian instability causes Algerian Transmed natural gas cut off, takes out 20% of the EU’s energy supply

      Ghettas 11—doctoral student @ London School of Economics and Political Science

      (Lakhdar “The Geopolitical Repercussions of the Tunisian Jasmine Revolution on North Africa”/January)

      While calm and order started to be restored

      AND

      1984, under the former president Lahbib Bourgiba.

       

       

      Transmed is the VITAL link to EU energy security—no ready alternatives

      Forbes 11

      (“Instability In Algeria Could Have Serious Energy Implications For Europe” [http://www.forbes.com/sites/energysource/2011/01/30/instability-in-algeria-could-have-serious-energy-implications-for-europe/] January 30)

      On top of the natural gas flowing to

      AND

      will simply sail to other countries that will.

       

      Algerian shock hits Italy and Spain especially hard

      Egging et al '08

       Ruud, Dep't of Civil and Env Enginering, University of Maryland College Park; Steven A. Gabriel, Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Applied Mathematics and Scienteific Computation Program, University of Maryland College Park, Franziska Holz, DIW Berlin, Jifang Zhuang, Chevron, "A Complementary model for the European natural gas market," 4/15/08, Energy Policy, Volume 36, Issue 7, http://www.sciencedirect.com.www2.lib.ku.edu:2048/science/article/pii/S030142150800061X#sec3.3

      Algerian natural gas production is important for the

      AND

      turning to the world-wide LNG market.

       

      European economy won’t collapse now –new central bank loans can prop up banks

      Kirkegaard 12/22

      Jacob Funk, research fellow at the Institute since 2002, senior associate at the Rhodium Group, a NY research firm. Formerly with Danish Ministry of Defense, the UN in Iraq, and in the private financial sector. graduate of the Danish Army's Special School of Intelligence and Linguistics University of Aarhus in Aarhus and Columbia author of The Accelerating Decline in America's High-Skilled Workforce: Implications for Immigration Policy (2007) and coauthor of US Pension Reform: Lessons from Other Countries (2009) and Transforming the European Economy (2004) and assisted with Accelerating the Globalization of America: The Role for Information Technology (2006) "Thinking about the Euro in 2012," Peterson Institute for International Economics: Realtime Economic Issues Watch," 12/22/11 www.piie.com/realtime/?p=2601 AD 1/1/2012

      The ECB has already begun its substantive 2012

      AND

      at the peak rollover season in early 2012.

      But, the fragile European economy won’t survive a weakened Italian or Spanish economy—default triggers collapse, spills over to the world economy

      Francis ‘11

      David reporter for the Fiscal Times, correspondent of the Christian Science Monitor, Financial Times Deutschland, and Deutsche Welle. contributing writer to World Politics Review,  and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, spoken about his reporting at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service, the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies, and the World Affairs Council of Pittsburgh “China and the Doomsday Scenario for Europe,” Fiscal Times, 9/14/11

      http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2011/09/14/China-and-the-Doomsday-Scenario-for-Europe.aspx#page1, AD 9/16/11

      What was once considered a worst-case

      AND

      is unthinkable in the current age of austerity.

       

      Economic collapse causes global nuclear war

      Mead 9—Senior Fellow in US Foreign Policy Studies @ Council on Foreign Relations

      Walter Russell, Only Makes You Stronger, The New Republic, 2-4-09, http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=1

      The greatest danger both to U.S

      AND

      Iranian influence and increase the dependence of the oil

      sheikdoms on U.S. protection.

      AND

      track, we may still have to fight.

      Economic decline causes war – studies prove

      Royal 10

      (Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises, in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)

      Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline

      AND

      economic-security debate and deserves more attention.

      Russia would be the only feasible gas fill in—Russia will use the EU’s reliance as a political weapon for expansionism
      Cohen 9-- Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies @ the Heritage Foundation

      (“Can Europe Be Taken Hostage by Russia’s Natural Gas Supply?” [http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=1071&pageid=20&pagename=Security]/February 9)

      It is clear that Russia has not ceased

      AND

      of energy and stand up to Russian bullying.

       

      Russian expansionism leads to prolif, regional instability, conflict, and nuclear use

      Cook 98

      Major, The Empire Strikes Back: Russia's Strategy is Still a Threat to Canada's Security, http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/doctrine/0027.htm

      Russia has come a long way since the

      AND

      the same threat as during the Cold War.

      High magnitude

      Bostrom 2

      Nick, PhD, Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9, March 2002, http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html

      A much greater existential risk emerged with the

      AND

      that we will encounter in the 21st century.

      This leads to extinction

      Engdahl 7

      F. William, February 18, pg. http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/engdahl/2007/0218.html

      Putin also did not have North Korea,

      AND

      perhaps, end human civilization in the process. 

       

       

       

      Democracy Adv

      Tunisian transition is the litmus test for the Arab spring—success in Tunisia key to spreading democracy in the region

      Masmoudi 11—president of the Center for the Study of Islam & Democracy

      (Radwan “Tunisia should be the priority” [http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/05/tunisia-should-be-the-priority/] May 18)

      The Arab world desperately needs a successful working

      AND

      here will have catastrophic repercussions in the region.

       

       

      US intervention prerequisite to the success of Tunisia – Ukraine proves

      Brinkley 10/30

      [Joel, San Francisco Chronicle “Libya, Tunisia face obstacles on road to democracy” [http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/10/29/IN241LM2KB.DTL])

      But now is also a time to regard

      AND

      are manifest, the risks from failure grave.

       

      Says yes— local actors recognize need for assistance

      Allen 1/27—NED Visiting Fellow

      Michael, “Tunisia: home-grown revolution needs foreign support” Democracy Digest 1/27/11, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/01/home-grown-revolution-needs-foreign-support-say-tunisians/, AD 10/17/11

      There are promising signs that the formation of

      AND

      vigorous support of democracy abroad,” he contends.

       

      Successful revision of the constitution key to prevent backsliding and ensure stability

      Churchill 12/19

      Erik, contributor to Foreign Policy's The Middle East Channel and A 21st Century Social Contract, a blog devoted to commentary on Tunisia, "Don't Lower the Bar for Tunisia," kefteji.wordpress.com/2011/12/19/dont-lower-the-bar-for-tunisia/, 12/22/11

      Driving the storyline of Tunisia’s success, both

      AND

      not yet been done against the former regime.

      This is the most important phase of the transitions for the spread of democracy

      Khouri 12/9

      Khouri 12/9 Rami G., "Islamists face the test of incumbency," Al Arabiya News, 12/9/11 english.alarabiya.net/views/2011/12/09/181600.html AD 12/29/11

      Islamists winning recent free and fair elections in

      AND

      of the majority, while protecting minority rights.

      Must act now—the risk of backsliding is at an all time high

       11—Senior Constitutional Officer of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq

      (Sven, “Networks and an Arab Summer” [http://globalbrief.ca/blog/2011/06/27/can-the-arab-spring-turn-into-summer/] June 27)

      It remains too early to view the protest

      AND

      responsive to their rights, needs and interests.

       

      Backsliding causes ME instability and terrorism

      Hague 8/8—British Foreign Secretary

      (William “Helping the Arab Spring succeed is Britain's cause too” [http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23976502-helping-the-arab-spring-succeed-is-britains-cause-too.do])

      But in an integrated world, no amount

      AND

      we do not have the option of inaction.

       

       

      Worst possible time for a Middle East war—Saudi Arabia and Iran are struggling for control—means they use any conflict as a cover and any tension immediately escalates to conflict

      Kinzer 10/20 - professor of IR at Boston University

      Stephen, author of "Reset: Iran, Turkey, and America's Future," The NYT "Iran, the Saudis and the New 'Great Game'" www.nytimes.com/2011/10/21/opinion/21iht-edkinzer21.html?_r=1 AD 10/20/11

      Whether the Iranian government actually sought to hire

      AND

      be shaped by this semi-clandestine war.

       

      Independently, any Middle East instability goes global

      London 10—president of the Hudson Institute

      (Herbert I. London, President of the Hudson Institute, a New York University based political think tank, and professor of Humanities at New York University, Hudson New York, 6/28/10, )

      The coming storm in the Middle East is

      AND

      if one, falls, the tent collapses.

      Most likely scenario for conflict

      Ferguson 7 – prof of history @ Harvard and senior fellow @ Hoover

      Niall Ferguson, professor of history @ Harvard, and sr. fellow @ the Hoover Institution. “This heat is a recipe for Armageddon”. June 17, 2007. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/06/17/do1701.xml

      For some time I have been warning that

      AND

      , and you have a recipe for Armageddon.

      Terrorism causes extinction

      Speice 6

      Speice, Patrick F., Jr. "Negligence and nuclear nonproliferation: eliminating the current liability barrier to bilateral U.S.-Russian nonproliferation assistance programs." William and Mary Law Review 47.4 (Feb 2006): 1427(59). Expanded Academic ASAP.

      With the end of the Cold War in

      AND

      escalate to the use of nuclear weapons.53

       

       

       

       

       

       




01/03/12

  • Fullerton 1AC

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Plan

       

      Plan: The United States federal government should increase constitution writing support for the Tunisian National Constituent Assembly.

       

       

      Transmed Adv

      Advantage __: Transmed

       

      Failure of Tunisian transition process causes instability

      Valdmanis ‘11

      Richard, writing for Reuters “Analysis - Confusion reigns ahead of Tunisia vote” 9/7/11 [http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFTRE7863DV20110907?sp=true]

      Gallopin said the large number of political parties

      AND

      to stay in power could pose a threat.

      Mobilizes the population and ignites tensions

      Hilal 11/10 - co-Director of the Middle East Task Force at the New America Foundation

       Leila, "Next Challenges for Tunisia," Foreign Policy, 11/10/11mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/11/10/rewriting_tunisia_after_the_elections

      Last month Tunisians went to the polls to

      AND

      weighed on these sentiments in mobilizing its support.

       

       

       

      Outcome of constitution-writing process uncertain—distractions and coalitions

      Ghali 12/9

      Amine Ghali is a Program Director at the Tunis-based Al Kawakibi Democracy Transition Center, and work on democracy, reform, and transition issues in the Arab world. He is a member of Tunisia’s National Commission to Investigate Corruption. , "Tunisia’s Constitutional Process: The Road Ahead," 12/9/11 Sada, of the Carnegie ENdowment for International Peace,carnegieendowment.org/sada/2011/12/09/tunisia-s-constitutional-process-road-ahead/84zy AD 12/27/11

      Following the October 23 elections to Tunisia’s 217

      AND

      its “ownership” by all Tunisians. /

       

       

      Assistance will be THE DETERMINING FACTOR for constitution cred – lack of checks and balances ensures failure

      Dennison et al 11— policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations

      (Susi; Anthony Dworkin, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations; Nicu Popescu, senior policy fellow at the European

      Council on Foreign Relations; Nick Witney, works for the European Defence Agency “AFTER THE REVOLUTION: EUROPE AND THE TRANSITION IN TUNISIA”/ March)

      Tunisian pro-democracy activists such as Bensedrine

      AND

      system and push back many of the changes.

      A Tunisian constitution modeled after US federalism ensures democratic advances and stability

      Mihalakas ‘11—former policy analyst with the US Department of Commerce

      Athanasios "A Governance Vision for the Nations of the Arab Spring," 6/7/11 mihalakas.wordpress.com/2011/06/07/a-governance-vision-for-the-nations-of-the-arab-spring/#more-51 AD 10/17/11

      When federalism at the national level is applied

      AND

      world stage as a champion of democratic principles.

       

       

       

       

      Failure of the Constituent Assembly collapses Tunisian democracy

      McCurdy 10/1

      Daphne, POMED's Senior Research Assistant, "A Guide to Tunisia's Elections," October 2011, pomed.org/tunisian-election-guide-2011/#.TpsMp7ImSSo AD 10/16/11

      Despite confusion over the electoral process and dissatisfaction

      AND

      prospects for genuine democracy taking hold in Tunisia.

      Successful revision of the constitution key to prevent backsliding and ensure stability

      Churchill 12/19

      Erik, contributor to Foreign Policy's The Middle East Channel and A 21st Century Social Contract, a blog devoted to commentary on Tunisia, "Don't Lower the Bar for Tunisia," kefteji.wordpress.com/2011/12/19/dont-lower-the-bar-for-tunisia/, 12/22/11

      Driving the storyline of Tunisia’s success, both

      AND

      not yet been done against the former regime.

       

      Says yes— local actors recognize need for assistance

      Allen 1/27—NED Visiting Fellow

      Michael, “Tunisia: home-grown revolution needs foreign support” Democracy Digest 1/27/11, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/01/home-grown-revolution-needs-foreign-support-say-tunisians/, AD 10/17/11

      There are promising signs that the formation of

      AND

      vigorous support of democracy abroad,” he contends.

       

       

      Tunisian instability causes Algerian Transmed natural gas cut off, takes out 20% of the EU’s energy supply

      Ghettas 11—doctoral student @ London School of Economics and Political Science

      (Lakhdar “The Geopolitical Repercussions of the Tunisian Jasmine Revolution on North Africa”/January)

      While calm and order started to be restored

      AND

      1984, under the former president Lahbib Bourgiba.

       

       

      Transmed is the VITAL link to EU energy security—no ready alternatives

      Forbes 11

      (“Instability In Algeria Could Have Serious Energy Implications For Europe” [http://www.forbes.com/sites/energysource/2011/01/30/instability-in-algeria-could-have-serious-energy-implications-for-europe/] January 30)

      On top of the natural gas flowing to

      AND

      will simply sail to other countries that will.

       

      Russia would be the only feasible gas fill in—Russia will use the EU’s reliance as a political weapon for expansionism
      Cohen 9-- Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies @ the Heritage Foundation

      (“Can Europe Be Taken Hostage by Russia’s Natural Gas Supply?” [http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=1071&pageid=20&pagename=Security]/February 9)

      It is clear that Russia has not ceased

      AND

      of energy and stand up to Russian bullying.

       

      Russian expansionism leads to prolif, regional instability, conflict, and nuclear use

      Cook 98

      Major, The Empire Strikes Back: Russia's Strategy is Still a Threat to Canada's Security, http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/doctrine/0027.htm

      Russia has come a long way since the

      AND

      the same threat as during the Cold War.

      High magnitude

      Bostrom 2

      Nick, PhD, Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9, March 2002, http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html

      A much greater existential risk emerged with the

      AND

      that we will encounter in the 21st century.

      This leads to extinction

      Engdahl 7

      F. William, February 18, pg. http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/engdahl/2007/0218.html

      Putin also did not have North Korea,

      AND

      perhaps, end human civilization in the process. 

       

       

       

      Credibility Adv

      Advantage __: Liberal Internationalism

      The U.S. must capitalize on the momentum of the “Arab Spring” to reverse a decade of authoritarian momentum – failure emboldens Russia, China, and Iran to behave aggressively and challenge the liberal international order.

      Puddington ‘11

      Arch Puddington, researcher at Freedom House, responsible for preparation of Freedom in the World reports. September 2011. “Democracy’s Stake in the Arab Spring”. Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs. Vol. 5, No. 3. online: http://israelcfr.com/documents/5-3/5-3-3-ArchPuddington.pdf

      To be effective, this effort must be

      AND

      set back the cause of freedom everywhere else.

      The US needs to take the lead and aggressively support democracy– anything else is perceived as managing decline and turning its back on global democracy.

      Hamid 10/1

      Shadi Hamid, Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center. “What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring”. October 1, 2011. http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/1001_obama_hamid.aspx

      Throughout the Arab spring, analysts and policymakers

      AND

      of support for “stable,” repressive regimes.

      The plan is key – it reinvigorates our national strategy in line with our traditional values.

      Lajeunesse ‘11

      Gabriel Lajeunesse, Writer, Advocate. “The Arab Spring and the Illusion of a Pragmatic Approach to Foreign Policy”. October 12, 2011. The Huffington Post.

      As Arab Spring moves into Arab Fall,

      AND

      Arab, or African, or Asian Spring.

      Tunisia serves as the lynchpin to US Arab Spring image –symbolic and practical importance as first revolution

      Carpenter '11

      J. Scott, Keyston family fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, "Help Tunisia First," 2/24/11 www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/24/help_tunisia_first?page=full AD 1/6/12

      If Tunisia doesn't succeed, no other country

      AND

      publicly reassure their Tunisian counterparts of American support. 

       

      Support for democratic movements is critical to securing a liberal international order – critical to dampen international conflicts and solve resource and environmental conflicts – only the U.S. can ensure success.

      Ikenberry ’11 – Professor of Politics and International Affairs @ Princeton

      G. John Ikenberry, the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University. “A World of Our Making”. Democracy A Journal of Ideas. Issue #21, Summer 2011. http://www.democracyjournal.org/21/a-world-of-our-making-1.php?page=1

      This spring’s dramatic upheaval in the Middle East

      AND

      are congenial to its long-term security.

      Resource scarcity and environmental conflicts will escalate globally.

      De Souza 11

      Mike, National affairs reporter; BA from Concordia University, “Energy-starved future looms, military warns” Postmedia News 4/18 http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Energy+starved+future+looms+military+warns/4634442/story.html

      The planet is running out of oil and

      AND

      environmental change are factors with the highest potential impacts

      A U.S. liberal leadership is critical to effective international institutions and cooperation that solves all global problems and great power conflict – there is no effective alternative.

      Kromah 9

      (Lamii Moivi Kromah, Department of International Relations University of the Witwatersrand, February 2009, “The Institutional Nature of U.S. Hegemony: Post 9/11”, http://wiredspace.wits.ac.za/bitstream/handle/10539/7301/MARR%2009.pdf)

      A final major gain to the United States

      AND

      without a broad measure of international security. 57

      Nuclear War

      Dyer 4

      Gwynne, in Military and History at  

      Toronto Star, The End of War, 12/30/04, http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1230-05.htm

      War is deeply embedded in our history and

      AND

      within the context of the existing state system.

      Middle east war goes nuclear—causes extinction

      London ‘10

      Herbert London is president of Hudson Institute and professor emeritus of New York University. “The Coming Crisis In The Middle East”. The Hudson Institute. June 28, 2010. http://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east

      The coming storm in the Middle East is

      AND

      the Iranian leadership looks to with imperial exhilaration.

      Worst possible time for a Middle East war—Saudi Arabia and Iran are struggling for control—means they use any conflict as a cover and any tension immediately escalates to conflict

      Kinzer 10/20 - professor of IR at Boston University

      Stephen, author of "Reset: Iran, Turkey, and America's Future," The NYT "Iran, the Saudis and the New 'Great Game'" www.nytimes.com/2011/10/21/opinion/21iht-edkinzer21.html?_r=1 AD 10/20/11

      Whether the Iranian government actually sought to hire

      AND

      be shaped by this semi-clandestine war.

       

      Extra Cards

      Tunisian transition is the litmus test for the Arab spring—success in Tunisia key to spreading democracy in the region

      Masmoudi 11—president of the Center for the Study of Islam & Democracy

      (Radwan “Tunisia should be the priority” [http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/05/tunisia-should-be-the-priority/] May 18)

      The Arab world desperately needs a successful working

      AND

      here will have catastrophic repercussions in the region.

      US intervention prerequisite to the success of Tunisia – Ukraine proves

      Brinkley 10/30

      [Joel, San Francisco Chronicle “Libya, Tunisia face obstacles on road to democracy” [http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/10/29/IN241LM2KB.DTL])

      But now is also a time to regard

      AND

      are manifest, the risks from failure grave.

       

       

       

       




01/03/12

  • Libya 1AC UMKC

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Plan

      Plan: The United States federal government should provide support for democratic governance to the Libyan National Transitional Council.

      Inherency

      Libyan aid now and more proposed

      Blanchard 12/8

      Christopher M., Analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs, "Libya: Transition and U.S. Policy," 12/8/11, Congressional Research Service, www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33142.pdf, AD 1/22/12

      Many Members of Congress welcomed the announcement of

      AND

      Libyans injured or displaced during the revolution.9

       

      Only takes out the disads—Libya needs technical assistance, not funding

      NYT '11

      "Colonel Qaddafi's End," 10/20/11 www.nytimes.com/2011/10/21/opinion/colonel-qaddafis-end.html AD 1/22/12

      Mr. Jibril has said that with Colonel

      AND

      Libyans into building a stable and peaceful democracy.

      Aid now doesn’t solve leadership

      Warrick 10/19

      Joby Warrick. Washington Post. “Clinton vows backing for Libya”. http://articles.boston.com/2011-10-19/news/30298576_1_mahmoud-jibril-libyan-capital-libyan-leaders

      Unlike other Arab states that have overthrown dictatorships

      AND

      us rebuild our country?” the questioner asked.

       

      Adv 1

      Advantage 1 is stability

      Absence of a credible central government ensures Libyan civil war—militias refusing to cede power

      Habboush 1/15

      Mahmoud, Reuters, "Slow start for Libya drive to disband militias," 1/15/12 www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-libya-militias-policetre80e0tw-20120115,0,6391544.story AD 1/18/12

      TRIPOLI (Reuters) - Twenty-four

      AND

      nation is what we care about the most."

       

      Militias will threaten Libyan stability until the NTC gains legitimacy—they feel they have to protect their interests – Libya wants help

      -Say yes

      ICG 12/14

      International Crisis Group, “Holding Libya Together: Security Challenges after Qadhafi Crisis Group Middle East/North Africa Report N°115, 14 December 2011,” http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/North%20Africa/115%20Holding%20Libya%20Together%20--%20Security%20Challenges%20after%20Qadhafi.pdf, AD 1/22/12

      As the recent upsurge of violence dramatically illustrates

      AND

      complacent about its promising but still fragile future.

       

      Libyan success is modeled throughout the region, but civil war spills over creating African failed states

      Ignatieff '11

      Michael, Senior Resident at Massey College, University of Toronto, "Libya’s revolutionary moment has arrived ," 10/24/11 m.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/libyas-revolutionary-moment-has-arrived/article2210105/?service=mobile AD 1/22/12

      We called Libya a civil war and intervened

      AND

      hideouts of the Al Qaeda in the Magrheb.

       

      Failed states risk great power wars

      Yoo 5

      John, Professor of Law, University of California at Berkeley School of Law, Failed States, Int’l Colloquium, Online

      Failed states pose perhaps the most dangerous threat

      AND

      some answers to the problem of failed states.

      African is strategically vital – even regional wars threaten global escalation.

      Glick 7 – senior ME Fellow @ Center for Security Policy in Washington DC

      Caroline B. Glick, the senior Middle East fellow at the Center for Security Policy in Washington, D.C., The Center for Security Policy is a non-profit, non-partisan national security organization. 12/11/2007. “Condi's African holiday”. http://www.carolineglick.com/e/2007/12/condis-african-holiday.php?pf=yes

      The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and

      AND

      conflagrations between competing regional actors and global powers.

       

      And, civil war in Libya draws in US, Russia, and China and goes nuclear

      Lendman ‘11

      Stephen, Harvard BA and Wharton MBA, Research Associate of the Center for Research on Globalization, "Libya- Flashpoint for World Conflict," 7/6/11 www.rense.com/general94/libya.htm AD 1/22/12

      Scott told Progressive Radio News Hour listeners that

      AND

      now than WW I seemed in early 1914.

       

      Successful transition and anti-corruption efforts ensures increase Libyan production and provides Europe oil and gas.

      Joshi and Pack October ‘11

      Shashank Joshi, is a doctoral student of international relations at Harvard University, and an Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. Jason Pack, researches Libyan History at Cambridge University. He has worked in Tripoli and Washington on strengthening US-Libya commercial and diplomatic ties. “Winning The Peace Collectively”. October 2011. Chatham House. The World Today. http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/twt/archive/view/178571

      There are at least three reasons why promptly

      AND

      can only happen after a successful transition period.

      Russia is rising – without gas supplies from Libya Europe will be forced to increase its dependence on Russia – their old defense doesn’t apply, Russia’s rise has been overlooked.

      Palmer 1/12

      Alex Palmer. “Russia Rising”. January 12, 2012. Harvard International Review. http://hir.harvard.edu/politics-of-disease/russia-rising?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+HarvardInternationalReview+%28Harvard+International+Review%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

      Then, in early July, Russia stepped

      AND

      network, a move the Belarusian government accepted.

      Renewed Russian expansionism threatens global nuclear war.

      Blank 9

      Dr. Stephen Blank, Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College. March 2009. “Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?,” online: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf

      Proliferators or nuclear states like China and Russia

      AND

      on their neighbors or their own people.172

      And, their impact defense no longer applies.

      Palmer 1/12

      Alex Palmer. “Russia Rising”. January 12, 2012. Harvard International Review. http://hir.harvard.edu/politics-of-disease/russia-rising?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+HarvardInternationalReview+%28Harvard+International+Review%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

      At a time of uncertainty around the world

      AND

      end of every winter comes a new spring.

      High magnitude

      Bostrom 2

      Nick, PhD, Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9, March 2002, http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html

      A much greater existential risk emerged with the

      AND

      that we will encounter in the 21st century.

      This leads to extinction

      Engdahl 7

      F. William, February 18, pg. http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/engdahl/2007/0218.html

      Putin also did not have North Korea,

      AND

      perhaps, end human civilization in the process. 

       

       

      And, the U.S. is key to help check Russian control over Europe.

      McNamara, 9

      Sally McNamar, Senior Policy Analyst in European Affairs in the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom. “Europe Should Reduce Dependence on Russian Energy”.  http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2009/01/europe-should-reduce-dependence-on-russian-energy-and-develop-competitive-energy-markets)

      Energy expert Dieter Helm could have had this

      AND

      find itself literally left out in the cold.

       

       

       

       

       

      Adv 2

      Advantage 2: Liberal Internationalism

      The U.S. must capitalize on the momentum of the “Arab Spring” to reverse a decade of authoritarian momentum – failure emboldens Russia, China, and Iran to behave aggressively and challenge the liberal international order.

      Puddington ‘11

      Arch Puddington, researcher at Freedom House, responsible for preparation of Freedom in the World reports. September 2011. “Democracy’s Stake in the Arab Spring”. Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs. Vol. 5, No. 3. online: http://israelcfr.com/documents/5-3/5-3-3-ArchPuddington.pdf

      To be effective, this effort must be

      AND

      set back the cause of freedom everywhere else.

      The US needs to take the lead and aggressively support democracy in Libya – anything else is perceived as managing decline and turning its back on global democracy.

      Hamid 10/1

      Shadi Hamid, Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center. “What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring”. October 1, 2011. http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/1001_obama_hamid.aspx

      Throughout the Arab spring, analysts and policymakers

      AND

      of support for “stable,” repressive regimes.

      Successful Libyan transition key to US image—overwhelms aftermath of military mission

      Feaver '11

      Peter, Professor of Political Science at Duke, director of the Triangle Institute for Security Studies, PhD in Government from Harvard, Member of NSC during Bush and Clinton administrations "Five Reasons it is Premature to Declare Mission Accomplished for Obama's Libya Strategy ," 8/22/11  shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/22/five_reasons_it_is_premature_to_declare_mission_accomplished_for_obamas_libya_strat AD 1/22/12

      3. Because this operation has dragged on

      AND

      the really hard part is what comes after.

      The plan is key – it reinvigorates our national strategy in line with our traditional values.

      Lajeunesse ‘11

      Gabriel Lajeunesse, Writer, Advocate. “The Arab Spring and the Illusion of a Pragmatic Approach to Foreign Policy”. October 12, 2011. The Huffington Post.

      As Arab Spring moves into Arab Fall,

      AND

      Arab, or African, or Asian Spring.

      Outsourcing our support for democracy in Libya allows Russia, China, and Iran to advance authoritarianism – causes regional conflicts that risk great power war – only U.S. support for democracy can challenge their ideology.

      Grygiel ‘11

      Dr. Jakub Grygiel is a Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and the George H.W. Bush Senior Associate Professor of International Relations at Johns Hopkins-SAIS. “Great Powers and Democracy Promotion”. October 3, 2011. Central Europe Digest. http://www.cepa.org/ced/view.aspx?record_id=319

      Now that the President is, at least

      AND

      on the side of democracy and human rights.

      Support for democratic movements is critical to securing a liberal international order – critical to dampen international conflicts and solve resource and environmental conflicts – only the U.S. can ensure success.

      Ikenberry ’11 – Professor of Politics and International Affairs @ Princeton

      G. John Ikenberry, the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University. “A World of Our Making”. Democracy A Journal of Ideas. Issue #21, Summer 2011. http://www.democracyjournal.org/21/a-world-of-our-making-1.php?page=1

      This spring’s dramatic upheaval in the Middle East

      AND

      are congenial to its long-term security.

      Resource scarcity and environmental conflicts will escalate globally.

      De Souza 11

      Mike, National affairs reporter; BA from Concordia University, “Energy-starved future looms, military warns” Postmedia News 4/18 http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Energy+starved+future+looms+military+warns/4634442/story.html

      The planet is running out of oil and

      AND

      environmental change are factors with the highest potential impacts

      A U.S. liberal leadership is critical to effective international institutions and cooperation that solves all global problems and great power conflict – there is no effective alternative.

      Kromah 9

      (Lamii Moivi Kromah, Department of International Relations University of the Witwatersrand, February 2009, “The Institutional Nature of U.S. Hegemony: Post 9/11”, http://wiredspace.wits.ac.za/bitstream/handle/10539/7301/MARR%2009.pdf)

      A final major gain to the United States

      AND

      without a broad measure of international security. 57

      Nuclear War

      Dyer 4

      Gwynne, in Military and History at  

      Toronto Star, The End of War, 12/30/04, http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1230-05.htm

      War is deeply embedded in our history and

      AND

      within the context of the existing state system.

      Middle east war goes nuclear—causes extinction

      London ‘10

      Herbert London is president of Hudson Institute and professor emeritus of New York University. “The Coming Crisis In The Middle East”. The Hudson Institute. June 28, 2010. http://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east

      The coming storm in the Middle East is

      AND

      the Iranian leadership looks to with imperial exhilaration.

      Worst possible time for a Middle East war—Saudi Arabia and Iran are struggling for control—means they use any conflict as a cover and any tension immediately escalates to conflict

      Kinzer 10/20 - professor of IR at Boston University

      Stephen, author of "Reset: Iran, Turkey, and America's Future," The NYT "Iran, the Saudis and the New 'Great Game'" www.nytimes.com/2011/10/21/opinion/21iht-edkinzer21.html?_r=1 AD 10/20/11

      Whether the Iranian government actually sought to hire

      AND

      be shaped by this semi-clandestine war.

      Solvency

      No expertise or framework for rule of law reform in Libya now—assistance key to legitimize NTC and prevent further missteps

      Eljarh 12/13

       Mohamed Eljarh is a UK based Libyan academic researcher and political, social development activist. He is also co-founder and Public Affairs Director of the Libyan Academy for Creativity and Innovation, "Op Ed: Perspectives on Rule of Law Reform in Libya," 12/13/11 feb17.info/editorials/perspectives-on-rule-of-law-reform-in-libya/ AD 1/21/12

      Studies have shown that 39 percent of countries

      AND

      guiding future developments of this field in Libya.

       

       

      Technical assistance integrates militias into society and boosts US image—they say yes

      Engel 11/2

       Andrew,a former research assistant at The Washington Institute, is a Beirut-based analyst, "Libya's Post-Qadhafi Challenges: PolicyWatch #1866," 11/2/11, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3417 AD 1/22/12

      Recommendations for U.S. Policy Libyans

      AND

      state over a democratic state with Islamic values.

       

      Now key –managing released assets –anti-corruption key to stability and ensure U.S. influence in Libya.

      Engel 12/19

      Andrew Engel, a former research assistant at The Washington Institute, is a Beirut-based analyst who recently traveled across Libya. “Challenges Facing the Libyan Government”. December 19, 2011. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3434

      In response to increasing domestic pressure, the

      AND

      other countries operating unilaterally outside the UN framework.

       

      US action key—has unique leverage with rebel movement and experience in institution building

      Vandewalle ‘11

       Dirk, teaches government aBusiness at Dartmouth,author of A History of Modern Libya, "The Reconstruction of Libya - US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations," 4/6/11, www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/.../Vandewalle%20Testimony.pdf, AD 1/22/12

      Strictly speaking, what will be needed is

      AND

      that all its citizens can truly subscribe to.

       

      Anti-corruption is a pre-requisite to effective foreign aid- only the US has the infrastructure

      Diamond, ‘8

      (Larry, Senior fellow at the Hoover Institute “End Foreign Aid As We Know It,” Democracy Journal, No 8, Spring 2008, http://www.democracyjournal.org/8/6584.php)

      But these new principles still govern only a

      AND

      projects, and thus slow to send money.

      Only strengthened institutions can overcome divisions in Libyan society and create credible rule of law

      Tolbert '11

      David, President of the International Cetner for Transitional Justice, "Make justice a foundation of the new Libya," 8/25/11 globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/25/how-to-make-justice-a-foundation-of-the-new-libya/ AD 1/21/12

      Looking to experiences spanning tectonic changes from Berlin

      AND

      societies that emerge divided from dictatorship and conflict.

       




01/07/12

  • Bonnet Gress Round 1 NJDDT Libya

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Plan

      Plan: The United States federal government should provide support for democratic governance to the Libyan National Transitional Council.

      Advantage 1 is stability

      Libyan stability on the brink - militias destabilizing the country as the NTC loses credibility

      Mustafa 2/25

      Dr Ayman Mustafa is a London-Based Arab writer, Special to Gulf News, "Long Way to go to become a state," gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/long-way-to-go-to-become-a-state-1.985665, AD 2/29/12

      As Libya celebrated the first anniversary of the

      AND

      heading towards becoming an inclusive, democratic state.

      Only a legitimate NTC can disarm and demobilize the militias

      ICG 12/14

      International Crisis Group, “Holding Libya Together: Security Challenges after Qadhafi Crisis Group Middle East/North Africa Report N°115, 14 December 2011,” http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/North%20Africa/115%20Holding%20Libya%20Together%20--%20Security%20Challenges%20after%20Qadhafi.pdf, AD 1/22/12

      As the recent upsurge of violence dramatically illustrates

      AND

      complacent about its promising but still fragile future.

      Destabilized Libya spills over throughout the region

      Pack and Barfi February ‘12

      Jason Pack, president of Libya-Analysis.com, has worked in Tripoli and Washington on promoting commercial and diplomatic relations between the United States and Libya. His articles have appeared in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy, and the Guardian, and Barak Barfi is a research fellow with the New America Foundation, specializing in Arab and Islamic affairs. “In War’s Wake: The Struggle for Post-Qadhafi Libya”. February 2012. The Washington Institute. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus118.pdf

      Regarding counterterrorism: Libya would pose a greater

      AND

      largely strengthening peripheral movements against incumbent governments. 123

      Africa is strategically vital –regional wars threaten global escalation.

      Glick 7 – senior ME Fellow @ Center for Security Policy in Washington DC

      Caroline B. Glick, the senior Middle East fellow at the Center for Security Policy in Washington, D.C., The Center for Security Policy is a non-profit, non-partisan national security organization. 12/11/2007. “Condi's African holiday”. http://www.carolineglick.com/e/2007/12/condis-african-holiday.php?pf=yes

      The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and

      AND

      conflagrations between competing regional actors and global powers.

      Successful transition and anti-corruption ensure increased Libyan energy production for Europe.

      Joshi and Pack ‘11

      Shashank Joshi, is a doctoral student of international relations at Harvard University, and an Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. Jason Pack, researches Libyan History at Cambridge University. He has worked in Tripoli and Washington on strengthening US-Libya commercial and diplomatic ties. “Winning The Peace Collectively”. October 2011. Chatham House. The World Today. http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/twt/archive/view/178571

      There are at least three reasons why promptly

      AND

      can only happen after a successful transition period.

      Russia is rising – without gas supplies from Libya Europe will be forced to increase its dependence on Russia – their old defense doesn’t apply, Russia’s rise has been overlooked.

      Palmer 1/12

      Alex Palmer. “Russia Rising”. January 12, 2012. Harvard International Review. http://hir.harvard.edu/politics-of-disease/russia-rising?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+HarvardInternationalReview+%28Harvard+International+Review%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

      Then, in early July, Russia stepped

      AND

      network, a move the Belarusian government accepted.

      Renewed Russian expansionism threatens global nuclear war.

      Blank 9

      Dr. Stephen Blank, Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College. March 2009. “Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?,” online: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf

      Proliferators or nuclear states like China and Russia

      AND

      on their neighbors or their own people.172

      Only scenario for extinction

      Bostrom 2

      Nick, PhD, Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9, March 2002, http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html

      A much greater existential risk emerged with the

      AND

      that we will encounter in the 21st century.

      And causes miscalc

      Engdahl 7

      F. William, February 18, pg. http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/engdahl/2007/0218.html

      Putin also did not have North Korea,

      AND

      perhaps, end human civilization in the process. 

       

       

       

      Adv 2

      Advantage 2: Liberal Internationalism

      The U.S. must capitalize on the momentum of Middle East democratic movements to reverse a decade of authoritarian momentum – failure emboldens Russia, China, and Iran to behave aggressively and challenge the liberal international order.

      Puddington ‘11

      Arch Puddington, researcher at Freedom House, responsible for preparation of Freedom in the World reports. September 2011. “Democracy’s Stake in the Arab Spring”. Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs. Vol. 5, No. 3. online: http://israelcfr.com/documents/5-3/5-3-3-ArchPuddington.pdf

      To be effective, this effort must be

      AND

      set back the cause of freedom everywhere else.

      The US needs to take the lead and aggressively support democracy in Libya – anything else is perceived as managing decline and turning its back on global democracy.

      Hamid 11

      Shadi Hamid, Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center. “What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring”. October 1, 2011. http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/1001_obama_hamid.aspx

      Throughout the Arab spring, analysts and policymakers

      AND

      of support for “stable,” repressive regimes.

      Successful Libyan transition key to US image—overwhelms aftermath of military mission

      Feaver '11

      Peter, Professor of Political Science at Duke, director of the Triangle Institute for Security Studies, PhD in Government from Harvard, Member of NSC during Bush and Clinton administrations "Five Reasons it is Premature to Declare Mission Accomplished for Obama's Libya Strategy ," 8/22/11  shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/22/five_reasons_it_is_premature_to_declare_mission_accomplished_for_obamas_libya_strat AD 1/22/12

      3. Because this operation has dragged on

      AND

      the really hard part is what comes after.

      The plan is key – it reinvigorates our national strategy in line with democratic values.

      Lajeunesse ‘11

      Gabriel Lajeunesse, Writer, Advocate. “The Arab Spring and the Illusion of a Pragmatic Approach to Foreign Policy”. October 12, 2011. The Huffington Post.

      As Arab Spring moves into Arab Fall,

      AND

      Arab, or African, or Asian Spring.

      Outsourcing our support for democracy in Libya allows Russia, China, and Iran to advance authoritarianism – causes regional conflicts that risk great power war – only U.S. support for democracy can challenge their ideology.

      Grygiel ‘11

      Dr. Jakub Grygiel is a Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and the George H.W. Bush Senior Associate Professor of International Relations at Johns Hopkins-SAIS. “Great Powers and Democracy Promotion”. October 3, 2011. Central Europe Digest. http://www.cepa.org/ced/view.aspx?record_id=319

      Now that the President is, at least

      AND

      on the side of democracy and human rights.

      Support for democratic movements is critical to securing a liberal international order – critical to dampen international conflicts and solve resource and environmental conflicts – only the U.S. can ensure success.

      Ikenberry ’11 – Professor of Politics and International Affairs @ Princeton

      G. John Ikenberry, the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University. “A World of Our Making”. Democracy A Journal of Ideas. Issue #21, Summer 2011. http://www.democracyjournal.org/21/a-world-of-our-making-1.php?page=1

      This spring’s dramatic upheaval in the Middle East

      AND

      are congenial to its long-term security.

      Resource scarcity and environmental conflicts will escalate globally.

      De Souza 11

      Mike, National affairs reporter; BA from Concordia University, “Energy-starved future looms, military warns” Postmedia News 4/18 http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Energy+starved+future+looms+military+warns/4634442/story.html

      The planet is running out of oil and

      AND

      environmental change are factors with the highest potential impacts

      A U.S. liberal leadership is critical to effective international institutions and cooperation that solves all global problems and great power conflict – there is no effective alternative.

      Kromah 9

      (Lamii Moivi Kromah, Department of International Relations University of the Witwatersrand, February 2009, “The Institutional Nature of U.S. Hegemony: Post 9/11”, http://wiredspace.wits.ac.za/bitstream/handle/10539/7301/MARR%2009.pdf)

      A final major gain to the United States

      AND

      without a broad measure of international security. 57

       

      Nuclear War

      Dyer 4

      Gwynne, in Military and History at  

      Toronto Star, The End of War, 12/30/04, http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1230-05.htm

      War is deeply embedded in our history and

      AND

      within the context of the existing state system.

      Middle east war goes nuclear—causes extinction

      London ‘10

      Herbert London is president of Hudson Institute and professor emeritus of New York University. “The Coming Crisis In The Middle East”. The Hudson Institute. June 28, 2010. http://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east

      The coming storm in the Middle East is

      AND

      the Iranian leadership looks to with imperial exhilaration.

      Solvency

      The NTC has the political and economic tools to co-opt and integrate militia fighters – U.S. technical assistance is key.

      Pack and Barfi February ‘12

      Jason Pack, president of Libya-Analysis.com, has worked in Tripoli and Washington on promoting commercial and diplomatic relations between the United States and Libya. His articles have appeared in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy, and the Guardian, and Barak Barfi is a research fellow with the New America Foundation, specializing in Arab and Islamic affairs. “In War’s Wake: The Struggle for Post-Qadhafi Libya”. February 2012. The Washington Institute. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus118.pdf

      Yet despite the lack of a viable alternative

      AND

      posts of interior and defense minister, respectively.

      US action key—has unique leverage with rebel movement and experience in institution building

      Vandewalle ‘11

       Dirk, teaches government aBusiness at Dartmouth,author of A History of Modern Libya, "The Reconstruction of Libya - US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations," 4/6/11, www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/.../Vandewalle%20Testimony.pdf, AD 1/22/12

      Strictly speaking, what will be needed is

      AND

      that all its citizens can truly subscribe to.

       

      Now key –managing released assets –anti-corruption key to stability and ensure U.S. influence in Libya.

      Engel 12/19

      Andrew Engel, a former research assistant at The Washington Institute, is a Beirut-based analyst who recently traveled across Libya. “Challenges Facing the Libyan Government”. December 19, 2011. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3434

      In response to increasing domestic pressure, the

      AND

      other countries operating unilaterally outside the UN framework.




01/07/12

  • MANPADs Add-on NJDDT

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Demobilizing militias key to stop MANPADs dissemination

      Brannen 2/12

      Kate Brannen. “U.S. Still Hunting for Missing Libyan MANPADS”. February 2, 2012. Defense News.  http://www.defensenews.com/article/20120202/DEFREG02/302020009/U-S-Still-Hunting-Missing-Libyan-MANPADS?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|FRONTPAGE

      The U.S. State Department believes

      AND

      million Canadian dollars ($1.6 million).

      MANPADS proliferation causes Afghan instability and takeover.

      Drwiega 12/6

      Andrew Drwiega is a senior defence journalist with a particular focus on military rotorcraft. He was the editor of Defence Helicopter for seven years. Andrew has reported on attachment from Iraq three times. “Libya’s MANPADs Legacy”. Aviation Today. December 6, 2011. http://www.aviationtoday.com/rw/training/military/Libyas-MANPADs-Legacy_75305.html

      It has always been surprising that American,

      AND

      , with dire consequences for the Karzai government.

      Causes Indo-Pak nuclear war

      Foust ‘9

      Joshua Foust, He’s spent the vast majority of his adult life doing defense and intelligence consulting.  In addition to writing for Registan.net, Joshua is a fellow at the American Security Project. He is also a columnist for PBS Need to Know. His writing has appeared in The Atlantic, The New York Times, Reuters, The Christian Science Monitor, The Columbia Journalism Review, and World Politics Review. “The Case for Afghanistan: Strategic Considerations”. 8/27/2009. http://www.registan.net/index.php/2009/08/27/the-case-for-afghanistan-strategic-considerations/

      But this is where it becomes impossible to

      AND

      convincing reasons to stay and do things right. 




01/29/12

  • CEDA Libya 1AC Rd 1

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Plan

      Plan: The United States federal government should provide support for democratic governance to the Libyan National Transitional Council.

      Adv 1

      Advantage 1 is stability

       

      Libyan security deteriorating now in the absence of a credible NTC—militias and regional divides could tip the country into a civil war

      Sharqieh and Nnamdi 3/7

       Ibrahim, Debuty Director, Brookings Doya Center, in an interview n the Kojo Nnamdi Show, NPR, 3/7/12 "An Update on Libya," http://thekojonnamdishow.org/shows/2012-03-07/libya-update/transcript, AD 3/18/12

      MR. KOJO NNAMDI 12:41:

      AND

      now, I don't think we're there yet.

       

      Only a legitimate NTC can disarm and demobilize the militias

      ICG 12/14

      International Crisis Group, “Holding Libya Together: Security Challenges after Qadhafi Crisis Group Middle East/North Africa Report N°115, 14 December 2011,” http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/North%20Africa/115%20Holding%20Libya%20Together%20--%20Security%20Challenges%20after%20Qadhafi.pdf, AD 1/22/12

      As the recent upsurge of violence dramatically illustrates

      AND

      complacent about its promising but still fragile future.

      Destabilized Libya spills over throughout the region

      Pack and Barfi February ‘12

      Jason Pack, president of Libya-Analysis.com, has worked in Tripoli and Washington on promoting commercial and diplomatic relations between the United States and Libya. His articles have appeared in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy, and the Guardian, and Barak Barfi is a research fellow with the New America Foundation, specializing in Arab and Islamic affairs. “In War’s Wake: The Struggle for Post-Qadhafi Libya”. February 2012. The Washington Institute. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus118.pdf

      Regarding counterterrorism: Libya would pose a greater

      AND

      largely strengthening peripheral movements against incumbent governments. 123

      African is strategically vital – even regional wars threaten global escalation.

      Glick 7 – senior ME Fellow @ Center for Security Policy in Washington DC

      Caroline B. Glick, the senior Middle

      AND african-holiday.php?pf=yes

      The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and

      AND

      conflagrations between competing regional actors and global powers.

      ?And, civil war in Libya draws in US, Russia, and China and goes nuclear

      Lendman ‘11

      Stephen, Harvard BA and Wharton MBA, Research Associate of the Center for Research on Globalization, "Libya- Flashpoint for World Conflict," 7/6/11 www.rense.com/general94/libya.htm AD 1/22/12

      Scott told Progressive Radio News Hour listeners that

      AND

      now than WW I seemed in early 1914.

       

      Successful transition and anti-corruption efforts ensures increase Libyan production and provides Europe oil and gas.

      Joshi and Pack October ‘11

      Shashank Joshi, is a doctoral student of international relations at Harvard University, and an Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. Jason Pack, researches Libyan History at Cambridge University. He has worked in Tripoli and Washington on strengthening US-Libya commercial and diplomatic ties. “Winning The Peace Collectively”. October 2011. Chatham House. The World Today. http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/twt/archive/view/178571

      There are at least three reasons why promptly

      AND

      can only happen after a successful transition period.

      Russia is rising – without gas supplies from Libya Europe will be forced to increase its dependence on Russia – their old defense doesn’t apply, Russia’s rise has been overlooked.

      Palmer 1/12

      Alex Palmer. “Russia Rising”. January 12, 2012. Harvard International Review. http://hir.harvard.edu/politics-of-disease/russia-rising?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+HarvardInternationalReview+%28Harvard+International+Review%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

      Then, in early July, Russia stepped

      AND

      network, a move the Belarusian government accepted.

      Renewed Russian expansionism threatens global nuclear war.

      Blank 9

      Dr. Stephen Blank, Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College. March 2009. “Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?,” online: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf

      Proliferators or nuclear states like China and Russia

      AND

      on their neighbors or their own people.172

      And, their impact defense no longer applies.

      Palmer 1/12

      Alex Palmer. “Russia Rising”. January 12, 2012. Harvard International Review. http://hir.harvard.edu/politics-of-disease/russia-rising?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+HarvardInternationalReview+%28Harvard+International+Review%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

      At a time of uncertainty around the world

      AND

      end of every winter comes a new spring.

      Only scenario for extinction

      Bostrom 2

      Nick, PhD, Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9, March 2002, http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html

      A much greater existential risk emerged with the

      AND

      that we will encounter in the 21st century.

      And miscalc leads to extinction

      Engdahl 7

      F. William, February 18, pg. http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/engdahl/2007/0218.html

      Putin also did not have North Korea,

      AND

      perhaps, end human civilization in the process. 

       

      And, the U.S. is key to help check Russian control over Europe.

      McNamara, 9

      Sally McNamar, Senior Policy Analyst in European Affairs in the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom. “Europe Should Reduce Dependence on Russian Energy”.  http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2009/01/europe-should-reduce-dependence-on-russian-energy-and-develop-competitive-energy-markets)

      Energy expert Dieter Helm could have had this

      AND

      find itself literally left out in the cold.

       

       

      Adv 2

      Advantage 2: Liberal Internationalism

      The U.S. must capitalize on the momentum of Middle East democratic change to reverse a decade of authoritarian momentum – failure emboldens Russia, China, and Iran to behave aggressively and challenge the liberal international order.

      Puddington ‘11

      Arch Puddington, researcher at Freedom House, responsible for preparation of Freedom in the World reports. September 2011. “Democracy’s Stake in the Arab Spring”. Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs. Vol. 5, No. 3. online: http://israelcfr.com/documents/5-3/5-3-3-ArchPuddington.pdf

      To be effective, this effort must be

      AND

      set back the cause of freedom everywhere else.

      The US needs to take the lead and aggressively support democracy in Libya – anything else is perceived as managing decline and turning its back on global democracy.

      Hamid 10/1

      Shadi Hamid, Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center. “What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring”. October 1, 2011. http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/1001_obama_hamid.aspx

      Throughout the Arab spring, analysts and policymakers

      AND

      of support for “stable,” repressive regimes.

      Successful Libyan transition key to US image—overwhelms aftermath of military mission

      Feaver '11

      Peter, Professor of Political Science at Duke, director of the Triangle Institute for Security Studies, PhD in Government from Harvard, Member of NSC during Bush and Clinton administrations "Five Reasons it is Premature to Declare Mission Accomplished for Obama's Libya Strategy ," 8/22/11  shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/22/five_reasons_it_is_premature_to_declare_mission_accomplished_for_obamas_libya_strat AD 1/22/12

      3. Because this operation has dragged on

      AND

      the really hard part is what comes after.

      The plan is key – it reinvigorates our national strategy in line with our traditional values.

      Lajeunesse ‘11

      Gabriel Lajeunesse, Writer, Advocate. “The Arab Spring and the Illusion of a Pragmatic Approach to Foreign Policy”. October 12, 2011. The Huffington Post.

      As Arab Spring moves into Arab Fall,

      AND

      Arab, or African, or Asian Spring.

      Outsourcing our support for democracy in Libya allows Russia, China, and Iran to advance authoritarianism – causes regional conflicts that risk great power war – only U.S. support for democracy can challenge their ideology.

      Grygiel ‘11

      Dr. Jakub Grygiel is a Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and the George H.W. Bush Senior Associate Professor of International Relations at Johns Hopkins-SAIS. “Great Powers and Democracy Promotion”. October 3, 2011. Central Europe Digest. http://www.cepa.org/ced/view.aspx?record_id=319

      Now that the President is, at least

      AND

      on the side of democracy and human rights.

      Support for democratic movements is critical to securing a liberal international order – critical to dampen international conflicts and solve resource and environmental conflicts – only the U.S. can ensure success.

      Ikenberry ’11 – Professor of Politics and International Affairs @ Princeton

      G. John Ikenberry, the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University. “A World of Our Making”. Democracy A Journal of Ideas. Issue #21, Summer 2011. http://www.democracyjournal.org/21/a-world-of-our-making-1.php?page=1

      This spring’s dramatic upheaval in the Middle East

      AND

      are congenial to its long-term security.

      Resource scarcity and environmental conflicts will escalate globally.

      De Souza 11

      Mike, National affairs reporter; BA from Concordia University, “Energy-starved future looms, military warns” Postmedia News 4/18 http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Energy+starved+future+looms+military+warns/4634442/story.html

      The planet is running out of oil and

      AND

      environmental change are factors with the highest potential impacts

      A U.S. liberal leadership is critical to effective international institutions and cooperation that solves all global problems and great power conflict – there is no effective alternative.

      Kromah 9

      (Lamii Moivi Kromah, Department of International Relations University of the Witwatersrand, February 2009, “The Institutional Nature of U.S. Hegemony: Post 9/11”, http://wiredspace.wits.ac.za/bitstream/handle/10539/7301/MARR%2009.pdf)

      A final major gain to the United States

      AND

      without a broad measure of international security. 57

      Nuclear War

      Dyer 4

      Gwynne, PhD in Military and Middle Eastern History at King's College London 

      Toronto Star, The End of War, 12/30/04, http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1230-05.htm

      War is deeply embedded in our history and

      AND

      within the context of the existing state system.

      Middle east war goes nuclear—causes extinction

      London ‘10

      Herbert London is president of Hudson Institute and professor emeritus of New York University. “The Coming Crisis In The Middle East”. The Hudson Institute. June 28, 2010. http://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east

      The coming storm in the Middle East is

      AND

      the Iranian leadership looks to with imperial exhilaration.

      Worst possible time for a Middle East war—Saudi Arabia and Iran are struggling for control—means they use any conflict as a cover and any tension immediately escalates to conflict

      Kinzer 10/20 - professor of IR at Boston University

      Stephen, author of "Reset: Iran, Turkey, and America's Future," The NYT "Iran, the Saudis and the New 'Great Game'" www.nytimes.com/2011/10/21/opinion/21iht-edkinzer21.html?_r=1 AD 10/20/11

      Whether the Iranian government actually sought to hire

      AND

      be shaped by this semi-clandestine war.

      Solvency

      The NTC has the political and economic tools to co-opt and integrate militia fighters – U.S. technical assistance is key.

      Pack and Barfi February ‘12

      Jason Pack, president of Libya-Analysis.com, has worked in Tripoli and Washington on promoting commercial and diplomatic relations between the United States and Libya. His articles have appeared in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy, and the Guardian, and Barak Barfi is a research fellow with the New America Foundation, specializing in Arab and Islamic affairs. “In War’s Wake: The Struggle for Post-Qadhafi Libya”. February 2012. The Washington Institute. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus118.pdf

      Yet despite the lack of a viable alternative

      AND

      posts of interior and defense minister, respectively.

      US action key—has unique leverage with rebel movement and experience in institution building

      Vandewalle ‘11

       Dirk, teaches government aBusiness at Dartmouth,author of A History of Modern Libya, "The Reconstruction of Libya - US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations," 4/6/11, www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/.../Vandewalle%20Testimony.pdf, AD 1/22/12

      Strictly speaking, what will be needed is

      AND

      that all its citizens can truly subscribe to.

       

      Now key –managing released assets –anti-corruption key to stability and ensure U.S. influence in Libya.

      Engel 12/19

      Andrew Engel, a former research assistant at The Washington Institute, is a Beirut-based analyst who recently traveled across Libya. “Challenges Facing the Libyan Government”. December 19, 2011. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3434

      In response to increasing domestic pressure, the

      AND

      other countries operating unilaterally outside the UN framework.

       

      Anti-corruption is a pre-requisite to effective foreign aid- only the US has the infrastructure

      Diamond, ‘8

      (Larry, Senior fellow at the Hoover Institute “End Foreign Aid As We Know It,” Democracy Journal, No 8, Spring 2008, http://www.democracyjournal.org/8/6584.php)

      But these new principles still govern only a

      AND

      projects, and thus slow to send money.




01/30/12

  • CEDA Libya 1AC Rd 4

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Plan

      Plan: The United States federal government should provide support for democratic governance to the Libyan National Transitional Council.

      Adv

      Advantage is: Liberal Internationalism

       

      The U.S. must capitalize on the momentum of Middle East democratic change to reverse a decade of authoritarian momentum – failure emboldens authoritarianism that challenges the liberal order

      Puddington ‘11

      Arch Puddington, researcher at Freedom House, responsible for preparation of Freedom in the World reports. September 2011. “Democracy’s Stake in the Arab Spring”. Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs. Vol. 5, No. 3. online: http://israelcfr.com/documents/5-3/5-3-3-ArchPuddington.pdf

      To be effective, this effort must be

      AND

      set back the cause of freedom everywhere else.

      The US needs to take the lead in Libya – anything else is perceived as turning its back on global democracy

      Hamid 10/1

      Shadi Hamid, Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center. “What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring”. October 1, 2011. http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/1001_obama_hamid.aspx

      Throughout the Arab spring, analysts and policymakers

      AND

      of support for “stable,” repressive regimes.

      US has responsibility to act

      Feaver '11

      Peter, Professor of Political Science at Duke, director of the Triangle Institute for Security Studies, PhD in Government from Harvard, Member of NSC during Bush and Clinton administrations "Five Reasons it is Premature to Declare Mission Accomplished for Obama's Libya Strategy ," 8/22/11  shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/22/five_reasons_it_is_premature_to_declare_mission_accomplished_for_obamas_libya_strat AD 1/22/12

      3. Because this operation has dragged on

      AND

      the really hard part is what comes after.

      The plan is key – it’s consistent with basic liberal freedoms

      Lajeunesse ‘11

      Gabriel Lajeunesse, Writer, Advocate. “The Arab Spring and the Illusion of a Pragmatic Approach to Foreign Policy”. October 12, 2011. The Huffington Post.

      As Arab Spring moves into Arab Fall,

      AND

      Arab, or African, or Asian Spring.

      Inaction doesn’t result in indigenous movements – other authoritarian states would power-grab in Libya and spark great power war – US support is the only way to challenge this authoritarian ideology

      Grygiel ’11 – Professor of IR @ Johns Hopkins

      Dr. Jakub Grygiel is a Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis. “Great Powers and Democracy Promotion”. October 3, 2011. Central Europe Digest. http://www.cepa.org/ced/view.aspx?record_id=319

      Now that the President is, at least

      AND

      on the side of democracy and human rights.

      Support for democratic movements is critical to securing a liberal international order – critical to dampen international conflicts and solve resource and environmental conflicts – only the U.S. can ensure success.

      Ikenberry ’11 – Professor of Politics and International Affairs @ Princeton

      G. John Ikenberry, the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University. “A World of Our Making”. Democracy A Journal of Ideas. Issue #21, Summer 2011. http://www.democracyjournal.org/21/a-world-of-our-making-1.php?page=1

      This spring’s dramatic upheaval in the Middle East

      AND

      are congenial to its long-term security.

      Two impacts – First – access to resources

      Resource scarcity and environmental conflicts will escalate globally.

      De Souza 11

      Mike, National affairs reporter; BA from Concordia University, “Energy-starved future looms, military warns” Postmedia News 4/18 http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Energy+starved+future+looms+military+warns/4634442/story.html

      The planet is running out of oil and

      AND

      environmental change are factors with the highest potential impacts

      Empirically – resources are tied to conflict – environmental sustainability is closely linked to peace

      Mazo 10 – PhD in Paleoclimatology from UCLA

      Jeffrey Mazo, Managing Editor, Survival and Research Fellow for Environmental Security and Science Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, 3-2010, “Climate Conflict: How global warming threatens security and what to do about it,” pg. 84-85

      A contrasting illustration is provided by UNEP’s analysis

      AND

      closely linked environmental and livelihood issues are resolved.

      Specifically – only multilateralism can transform the political economy to end food insecurity

      Schutter 9

      Oliver de, Special Rapporteur on the right to food, Crisis into Opportunity: Reinforcing Multilateralism, http://www2.ohchr.org/english/issues/food/docs/SRRTFsecondglobalfoodcrisisnote.pdf

      Since the global food crisis put hunger at

      AND

      the crisis can be made into an opportunity.

      These mass starvations make global war inevitable

      Brown 9 – Founder of Worldwatch and EPI

      Lester R, founder of the Worldwatch Institute and the Earth Policy Institute “Can Food Shortages Bring Down Civilization?” Scientific American, May

      The biggest threat to global stability is the

      AND

      will threaten the stability of global civilization itself.

      Statistical analysis proves food shortages leads to conflict

      Messer 1 – Professor of Nutrition Science and Policy at Tufts University

      Ellen Messer, Marc J. Cohen, Special Assistant to the Director General at the International Food Policy Research Institute & Thomas Marchione, Nutrition Advisor at the  Bureau for Humanitarian Response, U.S. Agency for International Development , “CONFLICT: A CAUSE AND EFFECT OF HUNGER,” ECSP REPORT · ISSUE 7

      Econometric studies provide additional empirical evidence of a

      AND

      ready audience for government appeals to ethnic hatred.

      Second – liberal institutions

      The shared membership of multilateral institutions is key to global cooperation – moralizing is insufficient – pragmatic and material change is a pre-requisite to reinforcing a common ethic that can solve multiple scenarios for extinction

      Smith 3 – Professor of Political Science @ Penn

      Rogers, Professor of Political Science at University of Pennsylvania and PhD Harvard University, “Stories Of Peoplehood, The Politics and Morals of Political Membership”, p. 166-169

      It is certainly important to oppose such evolutionary

      AND

      William Connolly, and Jurgen Habermas all envision.

      This ethic of emphasizing global commonalities is a prerequisite to addressing oppression -– allows transformative democracy to flourish-alternative is authoritarian

      -strategies of rejection are useless

      Shaw 1 – Professor of IR @ Sussex

      Martin, “The unfinished global revolution: intellectuals and the new politics of international relations,” http://www.sussex.ac.uk/Users/hafa3/unfinished.pdf

      It is time to rescue the worldwide democratic

      AND

      war is almost invariably genocidal to some degree.

       

      This U.S. influence is not old-fashioned imperialism – failing to restore democratic institutions results  in worse forms of imperialism by regional powers or Russia and China.

      Shaw 2 – Professor of IR @ Sussex

      Martin Shaw, professor of international relations at University of Sussex, April 7, Uses and Abuses of Anti-Imperialism in the Global Era, http://www.martinshaw.org/empire.htm

      It is fashionable in some circles, among

      AND

      political issues at the end of this paper.

       

      A U.S. liberal leadership is critical to effective international institutions and cooperation that solves all global problems and great power conflict – there is no effective alternative.

      Kromah 9

      (Lamii Moivi Kromah, Department of International Relations University of the Witwatersrand, February 2009, “The Institutional Nature of U.S. Hegemony: Post 9/11”, http://wiredspace.wits.ac.za/bitstream/handle/10539/7301/MARR%2009.pdf)

      A final major gain to the United States

      AND

      without a broad measure of international security. 57

      Nuclear War

      Dyer 4

      Gwynne, PhD in Military and Middle Eastern History at King's College London 

      Toronto Star, The End of War, 12/30/04, http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1230-05.htm

      War is deeply embedded in our history and

      AND

      within the context of the existing state system.

       

       

      Solvency

      The NTC has the political and economic tools to co-opt and integrate militia fighters – U.S. technical assistance is key.

      Pack and Barfi February ‘12

      Jason Pack, president of Libya-Analysis.com, has worked in Tripoli and Washington on promoting commercial and diplomatic relations between the United States and Libya. His articles have appeared in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy, and the Guardian, and Barak Barfi is a research fellow with the New America Foundation, specializing in Arab and Islamic affairs. “In War’s Wake: The Struggle for Post-Qadhafi Libya”. February 2012. The Washington Institute. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus118.pdf

      Yet despite the lack of a viable alternative

      AND

      posts of interior and defense minister, respectively.

      US action key—has unique leverage with rebel movement and experience in institution building

      Vandewalle ‘11

       Dirk, teaches government aBusiness at Dartmouth,author of A History of Modern Libya, "The Reconstruction of Libya - US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations," 4/6/11, www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/.../Vandewalle%20Testimony.pdf, AD 1/22/12

      Strictly speaking, what will be needed is

      AND

      that all its citizens can truly subscribe to.

       

      Now key –managing released assets –anti-corruption key to stability and ensure U.S. influence in Libya.

      Engel 12/19

      Andrew Engel, a former research assistant at The Washington Institute, is a Beirut-based analyst who recently traveled across Libya. “Challenges Facing the Libyan Government”. December 19, 2011. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3434

      In response to increasing domestic pressure, the

      AND

      other countries operating unilaterally outside the UN framework.

       

      Anti-corruption is a pre-requisite to effective foreign aid- only the US has the infrastructure

      Diamond, ‘8

      (Larry, Senior fellow at the Hoover Institute “End Foreign Aid As We Know It,” Democracy Journal, No 8, Spring 2008, http://www.democracyjournal.org/8/6584.php)

      But these new principles still govern only a

      AND

      projects, and thus slow to send money.

      Best studies support the plan

      Savun and Tirone 11 – *Professor of Political Science, **PhD Candidate @ Pitt

      Burcu Savun is Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh,  Daniel C. Tirone is a Ph.D. Candidate in the Department of Political Science, University of Pittsburgh, “ Foreign Aid, Democratization, and Civil Conflict: How Does Democracy Aid Affect Civil Conflict,” American Journal of Political Science,” Volume 55, Issue 2, pages 233–246, April 2011

       

      Scholars of intrastate conflict have shown that credible

      AND

      commitment problems during the early phases of democratization.




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