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Kansas Bonnet Schmitz Aff

Last modified by Administrator on 2012/10/17 22:32
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  • 2AC: Saudi Relations DA

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • //


      ////


      //

      2AC: Saudi Relations

      Relations low

      Plant 9/4

      Harsh V. writer, India Business-standard, 9/4/11 Harsh V Pant: A new balance of power in the Middle East http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/harsh-v-pantnew-balancepower-inmiddle-east/447953/

      The brutal crackdown in

      AND

      back Shiites in Bahrain or Saudi Arabia.

      No link – weve got the same goals in Yemen

      Boucek 11

      Christopher 6-21-2011, Ph.D. and M.A., School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London; B.A., Drew University is an associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program where his research focuses on security challenges in the Arabian Peninsula and Northern Africa. He is a leading authority on disengagement and rehabilitation programs for Islamist militants and extremists and a recognized expert on terrorism, security, and stability issues in Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Before joining the Carnegie Endowment, he was a postdoctoral researcher at Princeton University and lecturer in Politics at the Woodrow Wilson School. He was also previously a media analyst at the Royal Embassy of Saudi Arabia in Washington, D.C., and worked for several years at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies in London

      For all of the tensions now,

      AND

      doesn’t get overheated.

      Relations resilient

      Boucek 9/17 – leading authority on stability issues in Saudi Arabia and Yemen

      Christopher, Ph.D. and M.A., School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London; B.A., Drew University is an associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program where his research focuses on security challenges in the Arabian Peninsula and Northern Africa. He is a leading authority on disengagement and rehabilitation programs for Islamist militants and extremists and a recognized expert on terrorism, security, and stability issues in Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Before joining the Carnegie Endowment, he was a postdoctoral researcher at Princeton University and lecturer in Politics at the Woodrow Wilson School. He was also previously a media analyst at the Royal Embassy of Saudi Arabia in Washington, D.C., and worked for several years at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies in London http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/09/12/terrorism-out-of-saudi-arabia/53pw#awakening

      Will heightened tensions between the

      AND

      importance of the relationship.

      Plan boosts relations

      Ziegler 11

      Lucien Ziegler , Research Director of SUSTG, Publisher of Arabianomics.com, Research Director at Managing Director at Publisher at Past Marketing Associate at “Could US-Saudi Relationship Emerge Stronger After ‘Arab Spring’?”  3-18-2011, http://informationchaos.com/2011/03/18/could-us-saudi-relationship-emerge-stronger-after-arab-spring/

      It would even be reasonable to argue

      AND

      “special relationship” should remain intact for years to come.

       




11/01/11
  • FYI

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • I suck at using the new wiki... for specific requests, email Mark:

      diplomaticunion[at]gmail[dot]com




11/01/11
  • Yemen 1AC

    • Tournament: Missouri State | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • ~/~/ \\\\~/~/~/~/ \\\\~/~/So I'm a noob and deleted the version that was read at GSU - its the same as this, but minus the Reuters 9-23 card. This version was read at Missouri State. == {{id name="_Toc177712282"/}}Plan == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNoSpacing" %) The United States federal government should provide civil society assistance for the Youth Movement in Yemen. (% class="MsoNoSpacing" %) == ~*~*Advantage – Civil War~*~* == === Saleh’s return ensures civil war is imminent === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Reuters 9-23 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Reuters, 9-23-2011, “Newsmaker: Yemen's Saleh, "dancing on the heads of snakes",” http:~/~/www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/23/us-yemen-saleh-idUSTRE78M20X20110923 (% class="card" %) In 33 years he has led a poor, (% class="card" %) AND (% class="card" %) their public allegiance to the protesters. === Yemen is a powder keg – the plan is key to avert civil war === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)IHT 9-15 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) International Herald Tribune, 9-15-2011, “Yemen used deadly force at protests, U.N. says; Region in Revolt,” ln (% class="MsoNormal" %) A U.N. report says (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)the (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)Yemeni (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Mr. Saleh simply give up power(%%). === Yemeni Civil war turns Yemen into a failed state, splits it apart, and thrusts the entire region into conflict === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Kagan 10 – resident scholar and director of the Critical Threats Project at AEI (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Frederick W. Kagan, resident scholar and director of the Critical Threats Project at AEI, 1-20-2010, “Yemen: Confronting Al-Qaeda, Preventing State Failure,” http:~/~/www.aei.org/speech/100119 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)Salih faces two(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %) potentially (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)establishment of a serious al Qaeda safe-haven(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %). === Civil War will send armed refugees to collapse Saudi Arabia === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Haykel 8-19 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Bernard Haykel, prof of ME studies @ Princeton, 8-19-2011, "Saudi Arabia's policy of stability at all costs may backfire," http:~/~/www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2011/Aug-19/Saudi-Arabias-policy-of-stability-at-all-costs-may-backfire.ashx#axzz1VTwlaPFP (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="styleboldunderline0" %)Today, (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)the Saudis see 24 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="styleboldunderline0" %), possibly benefiting Iran in the long run. (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Saudi Collapse leads to regional conflict === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Indyk 11~-~- vice president and director of the Brookings Institution’s foreign policy program (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Martin, Amid the Arab Spring, Obama’s dilemma over Saudi Arabia, 4/7/11, http:~/~/www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/amid-the-arab-spring-obamas-dilemma-over-saudi-arabia/2011/04/07/AFhILDxC_story.html (% class="card" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)And (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)the Saudi system is fragile(%%). (% class="card" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)AND (% class="card" %) spell the end of Pax Americana in the Middle East. === {{id name="_Toc177626557"/}}Yemeni instability causes Saudi draw-in and escalates regionally === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Salmoni et al 10 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Barak Salmoni, Bryce Loidolt, and Madeleine Wells, 4-28-2010, “Regime and Periphery in Northern Yemen," RAND Corporation, http:~/~/www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG962.html (% class="MsoNormal" %) Over the past three years, (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) where the Qatar process ended. === ME war causes global draw-in. === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Symonds ‘6 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="cardChar" %)Peter (%%)Symonds(% class="cardChar" %). December 22, 2006. http:~/~/www(%%).wsws.org/articles/2006/dec2006/iraq-d22.shtml (% class="card" %) The sharpening rivalry between Saudi (% class="card" %) AND (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)major powers not to be drawn in(%%). === Youth revolution is increasing ties to the north and south movements – their support is key to making the transition peaceful === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)IkhanWeb 11 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) IkhanWeb 3-14-2011, “Yemen Seeking Reform Through Revolution,” http:~/~/www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=28214 (% class="MsoNormal" %) However, (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)negotiation is only one side (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) transfer of power with a specific timeline and agenda. === All your democracy bad turns are nonunique – Yemen already democratized once but it backslid in 2006 === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) -economy (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) -terrorism (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) -democracy (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) -overpop (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Burke 10 – researcher @ FRIDE (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Edward Burke, researcher @ FRIDE, May 2010, “Assessing Democracy Assistance: Yemen,” online (% class="MsoNormal" %) Prospects for democracy in Yemen have turned increasingly sour (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) labours on but with greatly reduced enthusiasm with regard to Yemeni participation. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == {{id name="_Toc177712283"/}}~*~*Advantage – AQAP~*~* == === AQAP is making a grab for the youth revolution – influencing them is key to topple Saleh and deal AQAP a death-blow === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Détente International 11 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Détente International, 4-22-2011, “AQAP After Saleh: What Happens To Al-Qaeda If The Yemeni Revolution Succeeds?,” http:~/~/detenteinternational.org/2011/04/22/aqap-after-saleh-what-happens-to-al-qaeda-if-the-yemeni-revolution-succeeds/ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)In a clear attempt to(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)appeal to(%%) (and (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)//Qaeda’s ultimate undoing here//(%%).” === Saleh and the JMP are pushing the youth to the side === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Root 8-16 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Tik Root, 8-16-2011, “Yemen's youth: the best hope for democracy,” http:~/~/english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/08/201181514211383535.html (% class="MsoNormal" %) Across the Middle East and North (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)in order to promote their own agenda(%%). === The threat of AQAP attacking the US is real – US aid and youth revolution is key to disrupting their foothold === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)CSM 11 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Christian Science Monitor, 3-21-2011, “Yemen will be the big test for democracy vs. Al Qaeda,” http:~/~/www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/the-monitors-view/2011/0321/Yemen-will-be-the-big-test-for-democracy-vs.-Al-Qaeda (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)Unlike Tunisia, Egypt, or Libya, (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) well lose ground in Yemen simply by the emptiness of its promise. === We have the fastest timeframe – AQAP is working on a WMD attack in the US in the near-term === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Grossman 11 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Elaine M. Grossman, Global Security Newswire, 6/10/11, “Panetta: Yemeni Support for Counterterrorism Persists, Despite Instability” http:~/~/gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20110610_2715.php (% class="MsoNormal" %) Attacks targeting the United States by (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)"still actively plotting attacks(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)." === Bioweapons lead to extinction === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Ochs 2 === Regional AQAP attacks would close the Bab al-Mandeb straits === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Juneau 10 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Thomas Juneau, Fall 2010, “ Yemen: Prospects for State Failure - Implications and Remedies,” online (% class="MsoNormal" %) The possibility of AQAP’s increasingly using its (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) groups in Yemen after their release. === Those attacks are being planned now === (% class="MsoNormal" %) -increased maritime activities (% class="MsoNormal" %) -proximity to Bab al Mandab and the Red Sea (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Lindo et al 11 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Samuel Lindo, Michael Schoder, and Tyler Jones, researchers with the CSIS transnational threats project, July 2011, “Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula,” CSIS case study 3 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)In 2025, AQAP will likely operate (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) insurgent group an appealing partner for AQAP. === Closure of the Bab al-Mandab would close off the Suez Canal – diversion of oil to the East-West oil pipeline prevents oil shocks but everything else is vulnerable === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)EIA 2011 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Energy Information Administration, February 2011, “World Oil Transit Chokepoints,” http:~/~/www.eia.gov/cabs/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints/Full.html (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)The Strait of Bab el-Mandab could be (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="place" %)Red Sea(%%) including the Bab el-Mandab. === While oil is being routed elsewhere in the world, LNG traffic has no alternative, and is vulnerable to closure of the Bab al-Mandeb strait === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)EIA 2011 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Energy Information Administration, February 2011, “World Oil Transit Chokepoints,” http:~/~/www.eia.gov/cabs/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints/Full.html (% class="MsoNormal" %) Total Oil and Products (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Total oil (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) Suez Canal in 2009 while over 90 percent of Belgiums LNG imports transited through the canal. === High natural gas prices destroy the chemical industry, sending the entire manufacturing industry in a downward spiral which destroys the economy === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in -0.5in 0.0001pt 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Bjacek 6 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Paul Bjacek, staff writer, 11-6-2006, ICIS chemical business America, “Lost Manufacturing” ln (% class="MsoNormal" %) LOST MANUFACTURING or "de-industrialization" (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)ensuring chemical industry competitiveness. (% class="card" %) === Econ decline causes global catastrophe and nuclear war === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Harris and Burrows 9 – PhD in History and Statistical analyst (% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Mathew, PhD European History @ Cambridge, counselor in the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and Jennifer is a member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis” (% class="MsoNormal" %) Increased Potential for Global Conflict (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) and between states(% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)in(% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %) (%%)a more(% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)dog-eat-dog world(% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %). === Yemen is key === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Lindo et al 11 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Samuel Lindo, Michael Schoder, and Tyler Jones, researchers with the CSIS transnational threats project, July 2011, “Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula,” CSIS case study 3 (% class="MsoNormal" %) Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)fight alongside their counterparts in Yemen. === This transitional period and protests in Yemen make now the only chance to end AQAP forever === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Lindo et al 11 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Samuel Lindo, Michael Schoder, and Tyler Jones, researchers with the CSIS transnational threats project, July 2011, “Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula,” CSIS case study 3 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)The current protests and resultant (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)//the impact of extremist activities.//(%%)121 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) {{id name="_Toc177712284"/}} (% class="MsoNormal" %) == ~*~*Solvency~*~* == === Yemeni democracy is being blocked by the US’ focus on counterterrorism, fortunately the plan answers the call of the youth revolution and changes our focus ensuring a peaceful transition === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Karman 11 – elected leader of the youth movement in Yemen (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Tawakkol Karman, an elected leader of Yemen’s democratic youth movement, is the founder of Women Journalists Without Chains, 6-18-2011, “Yemen’s Unfinished Revolution,” http:~/~/www.nytimes.com/2011/06/19/opinion/19karman.html?pagewanted=all (% class="MsoNormal" %) We have reached this historic moment (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)and encouraging development and stability(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %). === The Youth Revolution is key to the overall revolution – they’re gathering support and figuring out what needs to happen === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Root 8-16 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Tik Root, 8-16-2011, “Yemen's youth: the best hope for democracy,” http:~/~/english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/08/201181514211383535.html (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)The JMP(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %), which is dominated (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) extent possible, democratically chosen. === U.S. support is key to legitimizing the youth movement and solving in Yemen === (% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Abubakr 8-16 (% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Abubakr (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: ~"Menlo Bold Italic~";" %)⋅(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %) August 16, 2011, “(%%)Taking a chance on a democratic Yemen,” (% class="card" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)__Should the youth movement__ (% class="card" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)AND (% class="card" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)__for the US__(%%) and the West. === Engaging the youth movement is key to prevent them from becoming radical === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)MercyCorps 10 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) MercyCorps, 12-7-2010, “Engaging Youth for a Peaceful and Productive Future,” http:~/~/www.mercycorps.org/countries/yemen/22873 (% class="MsoNormal" %) In the coming years, pressure on the (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)entrepreneurial and business plan development. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %)




11/01/11
  • Yemen Hege 1AC

    • Tournament: Missouri State | Round: Quarters | Opponent: Texas DS | Judge: Burr, Morris, Kearney

    • ~/~/ \\\\~/~/~/~/ \\\\~/~/This has only been read once - Quarters at Missouri State == {{id name="_Toc177712282"/}}Plan == (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) The United States federal government should provide civil society assistance for the Youth Movement in Yemen. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == ~*~*Advantage – Civil War~*~* == === Saleh’s return ensures civil war is imminent === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Reuters 9-23 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Reuters, 9-23-2011, “Newsmaker: Yemen's Saleh, "dancing on the heads of snakes",” http:~/~/www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/23/us-yemen-saleh-idUSTRE78M20X20110923 (% class="card" %) In 33 years he has led a poor, unruly (% class="card" %) AND (% class="card" %) public allegiance to the protesters. === Yemen is a powder keg – the plan is key to avert civil war === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)IHT 9-15 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) International Herald Tribune, 9-15-2011, “Yemen used deadly force at protests, U.N. says; Region in Revolt,” ln (% class="MsoNormal" %) A U.N. report says (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)the (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)Yemeni (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Mr. Saleh simply give up power(%%). === Yemeni Civil war turns Yemen into a failed state, splits it apart, and thrusts the entire region into conflict === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Kagan 10 – resident scholar and director of the Critical Threats Project at AEI (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Frederick W. Kagan, resident scholar and director of the Critical Threats Project at AEI, 1-20-2010, “Yemen: Confronting Al-Qaeda, Preventing State Failure,” http:~/~/www.aei.org/speech/100119 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)Salih faces two(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %) potentially existential (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)a serious al Qaeda safe-haven(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %). === Civil War will send armed refugees to collapse Saudi Arabia === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Haykel 8-19 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Bernard Haykel, prof of ME studies @ Princeton, 8-19-2011, "Saudi Arabia's policy of stability at all costs may backfire," http:~/~/www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2011/Aug-19/Saudi-Arabias-policy-of-stability-at-all-costs-may-backfire.ashx#axzz1VTwlaPFP (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="styleboldunderline0" %)Today, (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)the Saudis see 24 million (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="styleboldunderline0" %)have increased, possibly benefiting Iran in the long run. (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Saudi Collapse leads to regional conflict === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Indyk 11~-~- vice president and director of the Brookings Institution’s foreign policy program (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Martin, Amid the Arab Spring, Obama’s dilemma over Saudi Arabia, 4/7/11, http:~/~/www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/amid-the-arab-spring-obamas-dilemma-over-saudi-arabia/2011/04/07/AFhILDxC_story.html (% class="card" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)And (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)the Saudi system is fragile(%%). Power (% class="card" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)AND (% class="card" %) spell the end of Pax Americana in the Middle East. === {{id name="_Toc177626557"/}}Yemeni instability causes Saudi draw-in and escalates regionally === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Salmoni et al 10 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Barak Salmoni, Bryce Loidolt, and Madeleine Wells, 4-28-2010, “Regime and Periphery in Northern Yemen," RAND Corporation, http:~/~/www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG962.html (% class="MsoNormal" %) Over the past three years, (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)regional states (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) might begin where the Qatar process ended. === ME war causes global draw-in. === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Symonds ‘6 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="cardChar" %)Peter (%%)Symonds(% class="cardChar" %). December 22, 2006. http:~/~/www(%%).wsws.org/articles/2006/dec2006/iraq-d22.shtml (% class="card" %) The sharpening rivalry between Saudi (% class="card" %) AND (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)major powers not to be drawn in(%%). === Youth revolution is increasing ties to the north and south movements – their support is key to making the transition peaceful === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)IkhanWeb 11 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) IkhanWeb 3-14-2011, “Yemen Seeking Reform Through Revolution,” http:~/~/www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=28214 (% class="MsoNormal" %) However, (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)negotiation is only one (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) transfer of power with a specific timeline and agenda. === All your democracy bad turns are nonunique – Yemen already democratized once but it backslid in 2006 === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) -economy (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) -terrorism (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) -democracy (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) -overpop (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Burke 10 – researcher @ FRIDE (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Edward Burke, researcher @ FRIDE, May 2010, “Assessing Democracy Assistance: Yemen,” online (% class="MsoNormal" %) Prospects for democracy in Yemen have (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) reduced enthusiasm with regard to Yemeni participation. (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) {{id name="_Toc177712284"/}} == ~*~*Solvency~*~* == === Yemeni democracy is being blocked by the US’ focus on counterterrorism, fortunately the plan answers the call of the youth revolution and changes our focus ensuring a peaceful transition === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Karman 11 – elected leader of the youth movement in Yemen (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Tawakkol Karman, an elected leader of Yemen’s democratic youth movement, is the founder of Women Journalists Without Chains, 6-18-2011, “Yemen’s Unfinished Revolution,” http:~/~/www.nytimes.com/2011/06/19/opinion/19karman.html?pagewanted=all (% class="MsoNormal" %) We have reached this historic moment because (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)development and stability(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %). === U.S. support is key to legitimizing the youth movement and solving in Yemen === (% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Abubakr 8-16 (% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-weight: normal;" %)Abubakr (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-family: ~"Menlo Bold Italic~"; font-weight: normal;" %)⋅(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-weight: normal;" %) August 16, 2011, “(%%)Taking a chance on a democratic Yemen,” (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)__Should the youth movement__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)__AND__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) world, but also (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)__for the US__(%%) and the West. === Engaging the youth movement is key to prevent them from becoming radical === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)MercyCorps 10 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) MercyCorps, 12-7-2010, “Engaging Youth for a Peaceful and Productive Future,” http:~/~/www.mercycorps.org/countries/yemen/22873 (% class="MsoNormal" %) In the coming years, pressure on the (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)and business plan development. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) == {{id name="_Toc177712283"/}}~*~*Advantage – AQAP~*~* == === AQAP is making a grab for the youth revolution – influencing them is key to topple Saleh and deal AQAP a death-blow === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Détente International 11 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Détente International, 4-22-2011, “AQAP After Saleh: What Happens To Al-Qaeda If The Yemeni Revolution Succeeds?,” http:~/~/detenteinternational.org/2011/04/22/aqap-after-saleh-what-happens-to-al-qaeda-if-the-yemeni-revolution-succeeds/ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)In a clear attempt to(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)appeal to(%%) ( (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)//ultimate undoing here//(%%).” === Saleh and the JMP are pushing the youth to the side === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Root 8-16 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Tik Root, 8-16-2011, “Yemen's youth: the best hope for democracy,” http:~/~/english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/08/201181514211383535.html (% class="MsoNormal" %) Across the Middle East and North Africa, (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)order to promote their own agenda(%%). === The threat of AQAP attacking the US is real – US aid and youth revolution is key to disrupting their foothold === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)CSM 11 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Christian Science Monitor, 3-21-2011, “Yemen will be the big test for democracy vs. Al Qaeda,” http:~/~/www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/the-monitors-view/2011/0321/Yemen-will-be-the-big-test-for-democracy-vs.-Al-Qaeda (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)Unlike Tunisia, Egypt, or Libya, (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) in Yemen simply by the emptiness of its promise. === We have the fastest timeframe – AQAP is working on a WMD attack in the US in the near-term === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Grossman 11 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Elaine M. Grossman, Global Security Newswire, 6/10/11, “Panetta: Yemeni Support for Counterterrorism Persists, Despite Instability” http:~/~/gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20110610_2715.php (% class="MsoNormal" %) Attacks targeting the United States by (% class="MsoNormal" %) AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)is "still actively plotting attacks(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)." === Bioweapons lead to extinction === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Ochs 2 === Yemen is key === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Lindo et al 11 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Samuel Lindo, Michael Schoder, and Tyler Jones, researchers with the CSIS transnational threats project, July 2011, “Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula,” CSIS case study 3 (% class="MsoNormal" %) Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula ((% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)AQAP (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %) their counterparts in Yemen. === This transitional period and protests in Yemen make now the only chance to end AQAP forever === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Lindo et al 11 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Samuel Lindo, Michael Schoder, and Tyler Jones, researchers with the CSIS transnational threats project, July 2011, “Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula,” CSIS case study 3 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)The current protests and resultant (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)AND (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)//impact of extremist activities.//(%%)121 === (% class="cardChar" style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Successful attacks lead to US intervention – hurts American Credibility(%%) === (% class="MsoNoSpacing" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Terrill 10 (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Dr. W. Andrew Terrill is a research professor at the U.S. Army War College, Carlisle Barracks PA, “Preventing Yemen from Becoming Fallujah”, November 1, 2010, (% class="card" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)In the rapidly mutating (% class="card" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)AND (% class="card" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)information that it needs to defeat AQAP on its own. === AQAP ~= Threat === (% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Terrill 10 (% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Dr. W. Andrew Terrill is a research professor at the U.S. Army War College, Carlisle Barracks PA, “Preventing Yemen from Becoming Fallujah”, November 1, 2010, (% class="card" %) The United States and particularly the (% class="card" %) AND (% class="card" %) be won by strategy and not brute force. === Full Military Intervention causes Overstretch and Kills Hegemony === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Lynch 10(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% rgb(226, 226, 226);" %) (%%)Marc Lynch, Foreign Policy, “Don't lose perspective on Yemen”, Saturday, January 2, 2010, (% class="card" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Direct American military intervention (% class="card" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)AND (% class="card" %) an extremely complex environment. === Heg decline leads to great power war === (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Zhang and Shi 11(%%) – *Yuhan Zhang is a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Currently on leave from Graduate School in Economic and Political Development, Lin Shi, MA from Columbia in International Affairs, also serves as an independent consultant for the Eurasia Group and a consultant for the World Bank, America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry, http:~/~/www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/ (% class="card" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)This does not (% style="color: black;" %)necessarily (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)mean (% class="card" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)AND (% class="card" %) (% style="color: black;" %)be devoid of unrivalled US primacy. (% class="MsoNormal" %)




11/01/11
  • (R.I.P) 2AC: KORUS Impact Turns

    • Tournament: GSU | Round: 5 | Opponent: George Washington TS | Judge: D Chung

    • ~/~/ \\\\~/~/~/~/ \\\\~/~/ == {{id name="_Toc178437603"/}}{{id name="_Toc177803042"/}}AT: Alliance == === The alliance is resilient – single issues will not upset the whole alliance – North Korea and troop presence outweigh failure to ratify the FTA. === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Ireland ‘9 (% class="MsoNormal" %) Corydon Ireland.. Harvard Gazette. “Firm allies, past and present: Two experts assess U.S.-South Korea relations”. September 14, 2009. http:~/~/news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2009/09/firm-allies-past-and-present/ (% class="card" %) She visited the John F. Kennedy Jr. (% class="card" %) AND (% class="card" %) good neighbors, good friends” on the issue of that presence, she said. === KORUS will give Korea cover to sign an FTA with China. === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Lee ‘10 (% class="MsoNormal" %) Kyung Tae Lee, President, Institute for International Trade, Korea International Trade Association. “Korea-US FTA: regional implications”. December 16, 2010. http:~/~/www.eastasiaforum.org/2010/12/16/korea-us-fta-regional-implications/ (% class="Card0" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Among Korea’s major trading (% class="Card0" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)AND (% class="Card0" %) obstacle to a Korea-China FTA. === SK/China FTA would offset the U.S.-ROK alliance. === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)The Hankyoreh ‘9 (% class="MsoNormal" %) “China in strong pursuit of FTA with S.Korea and Northeast Asian countries". December 19, 2009. http:~/~/english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_international/394311.html (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)As (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)China(% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %) has been in aggressive (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)AND (% class="card" %) upon economic goals as well. === The FTA would cause the losers on both sides to attack the overall alliance. The enhanced security ties will increase frictions that could threaten the alliance. === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Lee and Kim ‘9 (% class="MsoNormal" %) Dong Sun Lee, Research Fellow, East West Center, Ph.D. Political Science, University of Chicago, and Sung Eun Kim, Research Fellow at the Asiatic Research Institute. "The Impact of a Free Trade Agreement on the U.S.-South Korean Alliance: A Theoretical and Empirical Assessment". Paper presented at the annual meeting of the ISA's 50th Annual Convention. February 15, 2009. (% class="MsoNormal" %) http:~/~/www.allacademic.com~/~/meta/p_mla_apa_research_citation/3/1/0/6/8/pages310681/p310681-1.php (% class="card" %) Third, (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)the increased international commerce (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)AND (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)at public support for the alliance(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) == {{id name="_Toc178437604"/}}{{id name="_Toc177803043"/}}AT: Asia Stability == === Despite multiple flashpoints – Asian war unlikely === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Bitzinger and Desker ‘8 – Senior Fellow @ International Studies Perspectives (% class="MsoNormal" %) Richard and Barry, PhD from UCLA and Senior Fellow @ International Studies Perspectives, Dean of the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Why East Asian War is Unlikely, , Volume , Issue December 2008 , pages 105 – 128 (% class="card" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)The (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)Asia(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)-Pacific region can be (% class="card" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)AND (% class="card" %) not inconceivable (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)- (% style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)//is unlikely//(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) == {{id name="_Toc178437605"/}}{{id name="_Toc177803044"/}}AT: Global Free Trade == === KORUS leads to more bilateral agreements and breaks down multilateral trade. === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Wolf ‘7 (% class="MsoNormal" %) Martin Wolf, the FT's chief economics commentator. “A Korean-American strand enters trade’s spaghetti bowl”. April 4, 2007. http:~/~/blogs.ft.com/economistsforum/2007/04/a-korean-americhtml/ (% class="card" %) This month marks the 60th anniversary of (% class="card" %) AND (% class="card" %) call it the "World Trade Organisation"? (% class="MsoNormal" %) == {{id name="_Toc178437606"/}}{{id name="_Toc177803045"/}}NK War == === KORUS inflames tensions with North Korea and risks conflict. === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Stevenson 10 (% class="MsoNormal" %) Ian Stevenson. “KORUS: Good for South Korea, but Who Else?”. December 13, 2010. (% class="MsoNormal" %) http:~/~/blogcritics.org/politics/article/korus-good-for-south-korea-but/#ixzz1A5NB4MhC” (% class="card" %) KORUS is already being seen by other (% class="card" %) AND (% class="card" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)push the two sides closer to war. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) == {{id name="_Toc178437607"/}}{{id name="_Toc177803046"/}}China Relations == === KORUS tanks US-China relations === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Stevenson ‘10 (% class="MsoNormal" %) KORUS: Good for South Korea, but Who Else?, http:~/~/blogcritics.org/politics/article/korus-good-for-south-korea-but/#ixzz1A6Mm2tLq (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)KORUS is(% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %) already being (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)seen(% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %) by (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)AND (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)competitors a level playing-field(%%). === Relations solve war === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Kerr ‘99 (% class="MsoNormal" %) Paul, Research analyst at the Arms Control Association “Taiwan: Maintain the Current Ambiguity,” CSIS Prospectus, Volume 1, Number 1 - Fall 1999, (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)Stable U.S.-China relations can(% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %) (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)AND (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt;" %) relations with the United States(%%). === Extinction === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Straits Times 00 (% class="card" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) == {{id name="_Toc178437608"/}}{{id name="_Toc177803047"/}}SK Adventurism == === Passage of the FTA would cause rising expectations about the alliance, which increases the likelihood of SK adventurism and Asian conflicts. === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Lee and Kim ‘9 (% class="MsoNormal" %) Dong Sun Lee, Research Fellow, East West Center, Ph.D. Political Science, University of Chicago, and Sung Eun Kim, Research Fellow at the Asiatic Research Institute. "The Impact of a Free Trade Agreement on the U.S.-South Korean Alliance: A Theoretical and Empirical Assessment". Paper presented at the annual meeting of the ISA's 50th Annual Convention. February 15, 2009. (% class="MsoNormal" %) http:~/~/www.allacademic.com~/~/meta/p_mla_apa_research_citation/3/1/0/6/8/pages310681/p310681-1.php (% class="card" %) In the long run, however, Seoul and Washington are (% class="card" %) AND (% class="card" %) these risks to its long enduring security alliance. === SK adventurism causes rapid escalation and nuclear war === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Raska '10 (% class="MsoNormal" %) Michael, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, The Statesman "Why Can't South Korea Retaliate?" 11/25 (% class="card" %) However, since the early 1990s, South Korea’s (% class="card" %) AND (% class="card" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)into a broader regional crisis. (% class="MsoNormal" %) == {{id name="_Toc178437609"/}}{{id name="_Toc177803048"/}}Prefer our Ev == === Your should prefer our ev – their authors do not have theoretical or empirical basis for their claims – their false assumptions misrepresent the value of the FTA. === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 11pt;" %)Lee and Kim ‘10 (% class="MsoNormal" %) Dong Sun Lee, assistant professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Korea University, and Sung Eun Kim, Research Fellow at the Asiatic Research Institute. "Ties That Bind: Assessing the Impact of Economic Interdependence on East Asian Alliances". January 2010. East Asian Institute. http:~/~/www.eai.or.kr/data/bbs/eng_report/201002251819214.pdf (% class="card" %) Despite its wide acceptance, however, (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)few (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)AND (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" style="font-size: 11pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)the Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan over the past quarter-century(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %)




10/05/11
  • New Plan @ Emporia

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • ~/~/ \\\\~/~/~/~/ \\\\~/~/Read only in round 6. (% class="MsoNormal" %) The United States federal government should provide substantial support for the civil society capabilities of the Youth Movement in Yemen.




11/01/11
  • New Plan @ UCO

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Read round 2 The United States federal government should provide substantial support for the civil society capabilities of the youth movement in Yemen.




11/04/11
  • New 1AC Cards

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • //


      ////


      //Read rd 2 and 6 @ UCO

      Only strong US-Yemeni relations can end AQAP by ending anti-Americanism and recruitment

      Green 11

      Daniel Green is a Soref fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and stability operations, 4-18-2011, “The American Moment in Yemen,” http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/

      It is becoming increasingly

      AND

      launch attacks against the United States.

      Now is the turning point, the youth of the Yemen population ensures that whatever action or non-action the US takes will define relations for years to come. Lack of action guarantees total collapse of relations.

      Turse 11

      Nick Turse, 4-28-2011, “Hueys Over Yemen: Is U.S. Aid Suppressing Another Mideast Freedom Struggle?,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nick-turse/us-yemen-aid_b_855079.html

      Earlier this month, Tawakul

      AND

      took in their freedom struggle.




11/15/11
  • 1AC Cites

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • 2 options to view cites in a readable format:

      Do what Hardy said:

      http://www.cedadebate.org/forum/index.php?topic=2984.msg6180#msg6180

      Or, download the 1AC cites. I attached them below, and will try to keep them up to date.




01/23/12
  • Bonnet/Gress NJDDT

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • See Campbell/Gress Aff




03/10/12
  • Syria 1AC

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Plan: the United States federal government should alter the State Department’s Internet Freedom Program to provide  support for the internet capabilities of democratic opposition groups to Bashar al-Assad.

      Observation One is Backsliding and Communication

      Current censorship protocol allows the Syrian regime to crackdown on protestors

      Rabbani 12/19

      Taimur, 2011, Crimes Against Humanity Program, http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/2011/12/19/internet-technology-and-the-syrian-atrocity-supply-chain/, online 12

      Here’s something many Americans … a central feature of its agenda.

      Democratic growth absent convergence created by widespread internet replicates the backsliding of past Democracies established in the region

      Saleh 10

      Ibrahim, PhD Prof Journalism, U of Cape Town, Journalism Education in MENA, Brazilian Journalism Research, Vol 6, Issue 1, Online 11

      ‘False Starts’ could be one … avoids any lay-off for the (50,000) personnel to avoid social agitations.

      Absent a shift in US policy, current models allow for totalitarian domination of populations – Assad specific

      Rafizadeh 11

      Majid, Iranian-Syrian Scholar of International Studies, UC Santa Barbara, April 17, http://www.independent.com/weblogs/the-middle-east-and-social-media/2011/apr/17/the-middle-east-and-social-media/, online 11

      In Syria, a small …  in the mind of young Arabs."

      US tech exports prevent engagement by the Public and undermines action towards a new political means

      Landis 10

      Joshua, Director for the Center of Middle East Studies and Associate Professor at OU, 1/25, http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/?p=5164, online 11

      Sourceforge just became the … censors of the Syrian web.

      Expanding the internet is key to public pedagogy – a frame of knowledge which is created through unhindered intellectual discussion without a hegemonic education structure

      Giroux and Guilherme 6

      Henry, Henry A. Giroux currently holds the Global TV Network Chair Professorship at McMaster University in Canada. Language and Intercultural
       Communication Journal, 6:2, Online 11

      In the last few decades, I have tried to resurrect … fodder for the military, or a commodity.

      Theoretical media representation transcends material constraints and establishes ontological shifts

      Barnett 11

      Clive, PhD Social Science Open University,Geographies of democracy & public life @ Open U, Geoforum, 42(3), pp. 263–265

      Amongst all the excitement about …  ignorance or inattention into the structure of the world.

      Pedagogy is critical site of political contestation—not a depoliticized standard that precedes debate.  Our arguments contain within them.  The only means to attack neoliberalism as an outgrowth of conservative pedagological practices.

      Giroux 6

      Henry A. Giroux currently holds the Global TV Network Chair Professorship at McMaster University in Canada.  “Dirty Democracy and State Terrorism:

      The Politics of the New Authoritarianism in the United States,” Comparative Studies of South Asia, Africa and the Middle East 26.2 (2006) 163-177.

      Such circumstances require … of humanity are inscribed, and can be nowhere else.59

       

      Neolib makes extinction inevitable- social and environmental factors build positive feedbacks create a cascade of destruction - only massive social reorganization of society can produce sustainable change and save the planet

      Ehrenfeld ‘5,

      (David, Dept. of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources @ Rutgers University, “The Environmental Limits to Globalization”, Conservation Biology Vol. 19 No. 2 April 2005)

       

      The known effects of globalization …  entwined with ours within the global environment we share.

       

      Observation Two: Solvency

      The Arab Spring has created an opening for changing US Internet Policy as a democratic issue, but Clinton’s rhetoric expands surveillance models – we need to shift towards an open communicative model

      Morozov 11

      Evgeny, Visiting Scholar @ Stanford, 9/1, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/02/opinion/political-repression-2-0.html?_r=3, online 11

      Amid the cheerleading …  would trust the pronouncements of Western governments again?

       

      U.S. tech support is key— supporting opposition groups solves government monitoring, opens free lines of communication, and helps undermine repressive government practices

      Glanz and Markoff 11

      JAMES GLANZ, Ph.D. in astrophysical sciences from Princeton University and Baghdad bureau chief for NYT, and JOHN MARKOFF, senior writer for the New York Times, June 12, 2011, “U.S. Underwrites Internet Detour Around Censors,” New York Times Reprints,http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/12/world/12internet.html? pagewanted=4&_r=1&hp

      The Obama administration …  people’s fundamental human right to communicate,” Mr. Meinrath added.

       

      US Policy determines Business Decisions – key to prevent company shut downs

      York 10

      Jillian, June 16, US gives Iran more net freedom – but what about Syria?, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/libertycentral/2010/jun/16/internet-iran-syria-export-controls, online 11

      Iran, of course, is an obvious … United States' "brand" of internet freedom.

      Internet freedom acts key to an overall US policy shift

      York 11

      Jillian, Director of International Freedom of Expression at the Electronic Frontier Foundation, Board of Directors for Global Voices Online,9/26, https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2011/09/stop-the-piecemeal-export-approach, Online 11

      Two things ought to be done here, … in all countries of the world.

      These policies are modeled globally establishing a broader movement for freedom –Syria is the key test

      Morozov 11

      (Evgeny, Senior Fellow at the New America Foundation, April 2011 Whither Internet Control, Journal of Democracy Volume 22 Number 2)

      The forces that are shaping … U.S.-government funding in this space.

       

      PLAN TEXT

      Refusing neoliberal activity opens space for chains of equivalence with the Arab Spring and creates new movements against neoliberal politics

      Hasso & Dolgan ‘11

      (Frances, Associate Professor of Women’s Studies, International Comparative Studies and Sociology at Duke, “Arab Spring: An Interview with Frances Hasso on Revolutions in the Middle East”, Interview with Corey Dolgan in This Week in Sociology, March 21, 2001, http://www.thisweekinsociology.com/?p=84)

      In a recent interview you suggest …, Bahrainis, Yemenis, and others are asking in our own interpersonal, institutional, and political lives.

      Expansion of the Internet key to Digital convergence and democratization

      Ghannam 11

      Jeffery, Independent Media Consultant, Lawyer, and John S. and James L. Knight International Journalism Fellow, Feb 3, Social Media in the Arab World: Leading to the Uprisings in 2011, A Report to the Center for International Media Assistance, Online 11

      It’s still very …that has so far been elusive?

       

       Will probably get bigger as tournament continues, check before round for updates.




03/23/12

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