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  • Tunisia 1AC

    • Tournament: MoState | Round: 2 | Opponent: Sample Team | Judge: Sample Judge

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    • Plan


      The United States federal government should provide election monitoring assistance and constitutional reform assistance to Tunisia. Adv 1 Upcoming elections in Tunisia are the litmus test for the Arab spring—success in Tunisia key to spreading democracy in the region

      Masmoudi 11—president of the Center for the Study of Islam & Democracy (Radwan “Tunisia should be the priority” [http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/05/tunisia-should-be-the-priority/] May 18)

      The Arab world desperately needs a successful working

      AND

      here will have catastrophic repercussions in the region.
      Successful elections spillover to other countries—creates a model for true reform and democracy

      Rochdy 11

      (Adel, Tunisian journalist with a background in political science and law. “Tunisian elections will shape the political future of the Maghreb” [http://zawaya.magharebia.com/en_GB/zawaya/opinion/481] August)

      Tunisia is getting ready for a historic event

      AND

      way for a real democracy in the region.
      Democratization is key to prevent Mid-East war

      Schnabel 3

      Albrecht Schnabel, Academic Programme Office in the Peace and Governance Programme of the United Nations University, 2003, Democratization in the Middle East, p. 25-26

      Successful democratization is essential to bring peace to

      AND

      efforts to offer human security to its population.
      Middle East instability goes global

      London 10—president of the Hudson Institute

      (Herbert I. London, President of the Hudson Institute, a New York University based political think tank, and professor of Humanities at New York University, Hudson New York, 6/28/10, )

      The coming storm in the Middle East is

      AND

      if one, falls, the tent collapses.
      Most likely scenario for conflict

      Ferguson 7 – prof of history @ Harvard and senior fellow @ Hoover

      Niall Ferguson, professor of history @ Harvard, and sr. fellow @ the Hoover Institution. “This heat is a recipe for Armageddon”. June 17, 2007. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/06/17/do1701.xml

      For some time I have been warning that

      AND

      , and you have a recipe for Armageddon.

       


      Independently, election failure causes Arab Spring backsliding

      Walker and Tucker 8/11

      (Christopher and Vanessa, “Tunisia: The Arab Spring's Pivotal Democratic Example” [http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=694])

      Tunisia has already exerted a powerful demonstration effect

      AND

      interests of the United States and European Union. Now is the key time to act—the risk of backsliding is at an all time high

       11—Senior Constitutional Officer of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq

      (Sven, “Networks and an Arab Summer” [http://globalbrief.ca/blog/2011/06/27/can-the-arab-spring-turn-into-summer/] June 27)

      It remains too early to view the protest

      AND

      responsive to their rights, needs and interests.

       

      Backsliding causes ME instability and terrorism

      Hague 8/8—British Foreign Secretary

      (William “Helping the Arab Spring succeed is Britain's cause too” [http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23976502-helping-the-arab-spring-succeed-is-britains-cause-too.do])

      But in an integrated world, no amount

      AND

      we do not have the option of inaction.


      Terrorism causes extinction

      Speice 6

      Speice, Patrick F., Jr. "Negligence and nuclear nonproliferation: eliminating the current liability barrier to bilateral U.S.-Russian nonproliferation assistance programs." William and Mary Law Review 47.4 (Feb 2006): 1427(59). Expanded Academic ASAP.

      With the end of the Cold War in

      AND

      escalate to the use of nuclear weapons.53
      Adv 2
      Now is key—failure of upcoming elections in Tunisia would cause instability

      Valdmanis 9/7

      (Richard, writing for Reuters “Analysis - Confusion reigns ahead of Tunisia vote” [http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFTRE7863DV20110907?sp=true])

      TUNIS (Reuters)- - After standing up

      AND

      to stay in power could pose a threat.
      Failure causes instability and violence

      IFES 11

      (International Foundation for Electoral Systems, “Elections in Tunisia: Key challenges for credible and competitive elections” [] January 25)

      Tunisia’s ongoing and rapid political change is likely

      AND

      the election and possible election-related violence.
      Causes Algerian Transmed natural gas cut off, takes out 20% of the EU’s energy supply

      Ghettas 11—doctoral student @ London School of Economics and Political Science

      (Lakhdar “The Geopolitical Repercussions of the Tunisian Jasmine Revolution on North Africa”/January)

      While calm and order started to be restored

      AND

      1984, under the former president Lahbib Bourgiba.

       

      Transmed is the VITAL link to EU energy security—no ready alternatives

      Forbes 11

      (“Instability In Algeria Could Have Serious Energy Implications For Europe” [http://www.forbes.com/sites/energysource/2011/01/30/instability-in-algeria-could-have-serious-energy-implications-for-europe/] January 30)

      On top of the natural gas flowing to

      AND

      will simply sail to other countries that will.


      Algerian shock hits Italy and Spain especially hard

      Egging et al '08

       Ruud, Dep't of Civil and Env Enginering, University of Maryland College Park; Steven A. Gabriel, Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Applied Mathematics and Scienteific Computation Program, University of Maryland College Park, Franziska Holz, DIW Berlin, Jifang Zhuang, Chevron, "A Complementary model for the European natural gas market," 4/15/08, Energy Policy, Volume 36, Issue 7, http://www.sciencedirect.com.www2.lib.ku.edu:2048/science/article/pii/S030142150800061X#sec3.3

      Algerian natural gas production is important for the

      AND

      turning to the world-wide LNG market.


      The fragile European economy won’t survive a weakened Italian or Spanish economy—default triggers collapse, spills over to the world economy

      Francis 9/14/11

      David reporter for the Fiscal Times, correspondent of the Christian Science Monitor, Financial Times Deutschland, and Deutsche Welle. contributing writer to World Politics Review,  and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, spoken about his reporting at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service, the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies, and the World Affairs Council of Pittsburgh “China and the Doomsday Scenario for Europe,” Fiscal Times, 9/14/11

      http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2011/09/14/China-and-the-Doomsday-Scenario-for-Europe.aspx#page1, AD 9/16/11

      What was once considered a worst-case

      AND

      is unthinkable in the current age of austerity.


      Economic collapse causes global nuclear war

      Mead 9—Senior Fellow in US Foreign Policy Studies @ Council on Foreign Relations

      Walter Russell, Only Makes You Stronger, The New Republic, 2-4-09, http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=1

      The greatest danger both to U.S

      AND

      track, we may still have to fight.


      Russia would be the only feasible fill in—Russia will use the EU’s reliance as a political weapon for expansionism
      Cohen 9 Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies @ the Heritage Foundation

      (“Can Europe Be Taken Hostage by Russia’s Natural Gas Supply?” [http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=1071&pageid=20&pagename=Security]/February 9)

      It is clear that Russia has not ceased

      AND

      of energy and stand up to Russian bullying.


      Russian expansionism leads to prolif, regional instability, conflict, and nuclear use

      Cook 98

      Major, The Empire Strikes Back: Russia's Strategy is Still a Threat to Canada's Security, http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/doctrine/0027.htm

      Russia has come a long way since the

      AND

      the same threat as during the Cold War.
      High magnitude

      Bostrom 2

      Nick, PhD, Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9, March 2002, http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html

      A much greater existential risk emerged with the

      AND

      that we will encounter in the 21st century.
      This leads to extinction

      Engdahl 7

      F. William, February 18, pg. http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/engdahl/2007/0218.html

      Putin also did not have North Korea,

      AND

      perhaps, end human civilization in the process.
      Solvency
      US election assistance key to a successful Tunisian transition

      Allen 11

      (Michael, “Tunisia: home-grown revolution needs foreign support” [http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/01/home-grown-revolution-needs-foreign-support-say-tunisians/] January 27)

      There are promising signs that the formation of

      AND

      ruling parties, do not outmanoeuvre the moderates.”
      Successful revision of the constitution key to longterm sustainability and prevent backsliding

      Paciello 11—researcher @ the International Affairs institute, specializes in Mediterranean and ME studies

      (Maria Cristina, MEDPRO Technical Report No. 3 “Tunisia: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition”/ May)

      Legislative elections are crucial in determining the direction

      AND

      the Prime Minister argued in various interviews.59



09/24/11
  • Emporia 1AC - Tunisia

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Plan

      Plan: The United States federal government should increase constitution writing support for the Tunisian National Constituent Assembly.

       

       Inherency
      The US has promised millions in democracy aid for Tunisia
      White House Fact Sheet 10/7
      Office of the Press Secretary, "FACT SHEET: The President's Framework for Investing in Tunisia," m.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/10/07/fact-sheet-presidents-framework-investing-tunisia AD 10/18/11
      The United States strongly supports …with a range of Tunisian universities. Only takes out the disads—current package only includes trade deal and loans
      RFERL 10/8
      (Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty “U.S. Promises Money To Bolster Tunisia's 'Economic Transition'” []
      U.S. President Barack … longtime president Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali.

      Transmed Adv

      Now is key—failure of Tunisian transition process would cause instability
      Valdmanis 9/7
      (Richard, writing for Reuters “Analysis - Confusion reigns ahead of Tunisia vote” [])
      Gallopin said the large … could pose a threat.

      The outcome of the NCA far outweighs the result or process of the elections
      Mihalakas 10/6—former policy analyst with the US Department of Commerce
      (Athanasios “A Constitutional Convention for Tunisia and the Arab Spring” [,0c54e3b3-1e9c-be1e-2c24-a6a8c7060233]
      Post Election Goals All …. and to seek their opinion. 

      Failure of the NCA collapses Tunisian democracy
      McCurdy 10/1
      Daphne, POMED's Senior Research Assistant, "A Guide to Tunisia's Elections," October 2011, pomed.org/tunisian-election-guide-2011/#.TpsMp7ImSSo AD 10/16/11
      Despite confusion over the …genuine democracy taking hold in Tunisia.

      Assistance will be THE DETERMINING FACTOR for constitution cred – lack of checks and balances causes backsliding
      Dennison et al 11— policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations
      (Susi; Anthony Dworkin, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations; Nicu Popescu, senior policy fellow at the European
      Council on Foreign Relations; Nick Witney, works for the European Defence Agency “AFTER THE REVOLUTION: EUROPE AND THE TRANSITION IN TUNISIA”/ March)
      Tunisian pro-democracy activists such …push back many of the changes. A Tunisian constitution modeled after US federalism prevents backsliding and boosts US democracy promotion image Mihalakas ‘11—former policy analyst with the US Department of Commerce
      Athanasios "A Governance Vision for the Nations of the Arab Spring," 6/7/11 mihalakas.wordpress.com/2011/06/07/a-governance-vision-for-the-nations-of-the-arab-spring/#more-51 AD 10/17/11 When federalism at the national … champion of democratic principles.

      Causes Algerian Transmed natural gas cut off, takes out 20% of the EU’s energy supply
      Ghettas 11—doctoral student @ London School of Economics and Political Science
      (Lakhdar “The Geopolitical Repercussions of the Tunisian Jasmine Revolution on North Africa”/January)
      While calm and order started …r the former president Lahbib Bourgiba.

      Transmed is the VITAL link to EU energy security—no ready alternatives
      Forbes 11
      (“Instability In Algeria Could Have Serious Energy Implications For Europe” [] January 30)
      On top of the natural gas … sail to other countries that will.

      Algerian shock hits Italy and Spain especially hard
      Egging et al '08
       Ruud, Dep't of Civil and Env Enginering, University of Maryland College Park; Steven A. Gabriel, Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Applied Mathematics and Scienteific Computation Program, University of Maryland College Park, Franziska Holz, DIW Berlin, Jifang Zhuang, Chevron, "A Complementary model for the European natural gas market," 4/15/08, Energy Policy, Volume 36, Issue 7,
      Algerian natural gas production … turning to the world-wide LNG market.

      The fragile European economy won’t survive a weakened Italian or Spanish economy—default triggers collapse, spills over to the world economy
      Francis 9/14/11
      David reporter for the Fiscal Times, correspondent of the Christian Science Monitor, Financial Times Deutschland, and Deutsche Welle. contributing writer to World Politics Review,  and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, spoken about his reporting at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service, the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies, and the World Affairs Council of Pittsburgh “China and the Doomsday Scenario for Europe,” Fiscal Times, 9/14/11
      , AD 9/16/11
      What was once considered … current age of austerity.

      Economic collapse causes global nuclear war
      Mead 9—Senior Fellow in US Foreign Policy Studies @ Council on Foreign Relations
      Walter Russell, Only Makes You Stronger, The New Republic, 2-4-09,
      The greatest danger both …may still have to fight.
      Economic decline causes war – studies prove
      Royal 10
      (Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises, in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)
      Less intuitive is how … and deserves more attention.
      Russia would be the only feasible fill in—Russia will use the EU’s reliance as a political weapon for expansionism
      Cohen 9 Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies @ the Heritage Foundation
      (“Can Europe Be Taken Hostage by Russia’s Natural Gas Supply?” []/February 9)
      It is clear that Russia …stand up to Russian bullying.

      Russian expansionism leads to prolif, regional instability, conflict, and nuclear use
      Cook 98
      Major, The Empire Strikes Back: Russia's Strategy is Still a Threat to Canada's Security,
      Russia has come … threat as during the Cold War.
      High magnitude
      Bostrom 2
      Nick, PhD, Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9, March 2002,
      A much greater existential … encounter in the 21st century.
      This leads to extinction
      Engdahl 7
      F. William, February 18, pg.
      Putin also did not have … civilization in the process. 

      Democracy Adv
      Tunisian transition is the litmus test for the Arab spring—success in Tunisia key to spreading democracy in the region
      Masmoudi 11—president of the Center for the Study of Islam & Democracy (Radwan “Tunisia should be the priority” [] May 18)
      The Arab world desperately … repercussions in the region.

      Tunisia key model, but US support is key
      Allen 10/17—NED Visiting Fellow
      Michael, “Tunisia: home-grown revolution needs foreign support” Democracy Digest 1/27/11, , AD 10/17/11
      There are promising signs … democracy abroad,” he contends. 

      Successful revision of the constitution key to longterm sustainability and prevent backsliding  
      Paciello 11—researcher @ the International Affairs institute, specializes in Mediterranean and ME studies
      (Maria Cristina, MEDPRO Technical Report No. 3 “Tunisia: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition”/ May)
      Legislative elections are crucial in …. in various interviews.59

      Now is the key time to act—the risk of backsliding is at an all time high
      Spengemann 11—Senior Constitutional Officer of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq
      (Sven, “Networks and an Arab Summer” [] June 27)
      It remains too early …, needs and interests.

      Backsliding causes ME instability and terrorism
      Hague 8/8—British Foreign Secretary
      (William “Helping the Arab Spring succeed is Britain's cause too” [])
      But in an integrated world, … have the option of inaction.

      Worst possible time for a Middle East war—Saudi Arabia and Iran are struggling for control—means they use any conflict as a cover and ny tension immediately escalates to conflict
      Kinzer 10/20 - professor of IR at Boston University
      Stephen, author of "Reset: Iran, Turkey, and America's Future," The NYT "Iran, the Saudis and the New 'Great Game'" www.nytimes.com/2011/10/21/opinion/21iht-edkinzer21.html?_r=1 AD 10/20/11
      Whether the Iranian … by this semi-clandestine war.

      A threatened Saudi Arabia would precipitate a Middle Eastern arms race
      Spindle and Corker ‘11
      [Bill and Margaret, WSJ< “Saudi Arabia and Iran wage a new Cold Warin the Middle East,” 4/16/11, , AD 5/25/11]
      But many worry that …the use of nuclear weapons.

      Middle Eastern arms races end in nuclear war
      Rosen in ‘6—national security professor @Harvard
      [Stephen Peter, Professor of National Security at Harvard, "After Proliferation", Foreign Affairs, Sept/Oct 2006, p. asp ]
      During the Cold War, the United … use of nuclear weapons. Independently, any Middle East instability goes global London 10—president of the Hudson Institute
      (Herbert I. London, President of the Hudson Institute, a New York University based political think tank, and professor of Humanities at New York University, Hudson New York, 6/28/10,
      The coming storm in the …, the tent collapses.

      Terrorism causes extinction
      Speice 6
      Speice, Patrick F., Jr. "Negligence and nuclear nonproliferation: eliminating the current liability barrier to bilateral U.S.-Russian nonproliferation assistance programs." William and Mary Law Review 47.4 (Feb 2006): 1427(59). Expanded Academic ASAP.
      With the end of the Cold … escalate to the use of nuclear weapons.53




11/04/11
  • Egypt 1AC

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Plan

      Plan: The United States federal government should provide support for transparent democratic governance for Egypt.

      Adv 1 - Warming

      Anti-corruption key to the Egyptian environment- only way to enforce environmental legislation, create oversight, and stop resource depletion

      Wardam ‘11

      (Batir, Editor of Arab Environment Watch, 10 years working experience in Academic institutions, Non-Governmental Organizations, international environmental organizations (UNDP, IUCN, UNEP, World Bank, etc..), government and media institutions, “The Environmental Dimensions of Arab Revolutions”, February 28, 2011, http://bwardam.wordpress.com/2011/02/28/the-environmental-dimensions-of-arab-revolutions/)

       

      Egypt, the heart of the Arab world

      AND

      Arab country in the coming weeks and months.

      Corruption kills investment in concentrated solar power- causes capital flight

      Petroleum Africa ‘11

      (“Egypt’s Renewable Energy Hopes Overshadowed by Corruption”, May 2, 2011, http://www.petroleumafrica.com/en/newsarticle.php?NewsID=11435)

       

      As Egypt struggles to meet its growing power

      AND

      other regions for investment," the chapter concluded.

      Egypt is key to MENA concentrated solar power- that’s key to the globe, illustrates commercial viability

      The World Bank Group ‘9

      (“Egypt: Renewable Energy and Clean Transport Are Cornerstones of Low Carbon Growth”, June 5, 2009, http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/NEWS/0,,print:Y~isCURL:Y~contentMDK:22203619~pagePK:64257043~piPK:437376~theSitePK:4607,00.html)

       

      Egypt’s greenhouse gas emissions have been among the

      AND

      Environment Facility and Japan Bank for International Cooperation.

      Egyptian geography and environmental leadership make its clean tech initiatives key- can provide a model for the developing world

      Sterman ‘9

      (David, Intern @ the Climate Institute, “Climate Change in Egypt: Rising Sea Level, Dwindling Water Supplies”, http://www.climate.org/topics/international-action/egypt.html)

       

      While Egypt’s unique geography makes continued climate change

      AND

      of the international community to take similar action.

      Concentrated solar power key to solve warming- it’s the only silver bullet technology available

      Romm ‘8

      (Joseph, senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, where he oversees ClimateProgress.org., “The technology that will save humanity”, April 14, 2008, http://www.salon.com/2008/04/14/solar_electric_thermal/singleton/)

       

      Certainly we will need many different technologies to

      AND

      solar thermal has a long and fascinating history.

      Tech breakthroughs are the only way to solve warming

      -political will isn’t key because decisions are made based on cost

      -technological innovation is comparatively better than regulations because regs can’t achieve international consensus

      Shellenberger et al 8 – MA in Cultural Anthropology from UC-Santa Cruz, President of the Breakthrough Institute, a paradigm-shifting think tank committed to modernizing liberal thought for the 21st Century

      Michael, RESHAPING THE GLOBAL WARMING DEBATE: Fast, Clean, & Cheap: Cutting Global Warming's Gordian Knot, 2 Harv. L. & Pol'y Rev. 93, Lexis

      Today, there is a dilemma--a

      AND

      in the U.S. Congress would establish

       

      Warming is an existential threat

      Mazo 10 – PhD in Paleoclimatology from UCLA

      Jeffrey Mazo, Managing Editor, Survival and Research Fellow for Environmental Security and Science Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, 3-2010, “Climate Conflict: How global warming threatens security and what to do about it,” pg. 122

      The best estimates for global warming to the

      AND

      mean profound social, cultural and political changes.

      Global warming leads to mass and unending international conflict

      Klare 6 – Professor of Peace and World Security Studies

      Michael, professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College, The Coming Resource Wars, 3-10-2006, http://www.alternet.org/environment/33243

      It's official: the era of resource wars

      AND

      will escape involvement in these forms of conflict

       

      Positive feedback loops exponentially magnify our impacts

      Hansen 8 – Professor of Earth and Environmental Science

      James E. Hanson, head of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City and adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Science at Columbia University, Al Gore’s science advisor, “Briefing before the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming,” US House of Representatives, 6-23-2008, “Twenty years later: tipping points near on global warming,”

      Fast feedbacks—changes that occur quickly in

      AND

      A major casualty in all this will be wildlife

      Because climate change is irreversible we must err on the side of preventing it even if the scientific evidence is debatable

      Sunstein 7 – Professor of Political Science

      Cass R., Professor in the Department of Political Science and at the Law School of the University of Chicago, 2007, “Worst-Case Scenarios”, Harvard University Press

      Most worst-case scenarios appear to have

      AND

      more aggressive measures than would otherwise seem justified.

      Adv 2 – The Economy

      Corruption is crushing the economy

      Ben-Meir 11/1

      Alon Ben-Meir’s is regularly involved in two-track diplomacy and continues to monitor closely events throughout the region,  “THE ARAB SPRING: Political Reforms Must Be Accompanied By Economic Developments,” November 1, 2011, http://www.alonben-meir.com/articles/read/id/521

      An essential part of the transition period in

      AND

      - who themselves became targets of public discontent.

      That generates violent protests and backlash

      AFP, 10/23

      “Opaqueness and unrest burden Egypt's economy,” http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/24869/Business/Economy/Opaqueness-and-unrest-burden-Egypts-economy-.aspx

      Labour protests -- by teachers, bus drivers

      AND

      tumbled by 40 per cent in nine months.

       

      The SCAF will distract the public by spreading sectarian violence

      Rubin 10/20

      (Trudy, Inquirer Columnist, “Worldview: A visit to the Mideast as nations' awakenings evolve”, http://articles.philly.com/2011-10-20/news/30301745_1_islamist-parties-arab-rebellions-islam-and-democracy/2)

       

      Far more problematic - and far more important

      AND

      media and blame Egypt's problems on outside agitators.

      The transitional government has no plan to solve the economy- means violent solutions are inevitable in the squo

      Coleman 10/13

      (Isobel, Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy, Council on Foreign Relations, “Prospects for Egypt’s Economy”, October 13, 2011, http://blogs.cfr.org/coleman/2011/10/13/prospects-for-egypt%E2%80%99s-economy/)

       

      The impetus behind Egypt’s uprising was largely political

      AND

      more economic leeway than either Tunisia or Egypt.

      Sectarian violence causes US intervention

      Al Habtoor 10/17/11

       Khalaf Al Habtoor is a businessman and chairman of Al Habtoor Group. He is a former member of the Federal National Council and the Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government

       

      Civil war The irony is that the thuggish

      AND

      go in under the pretext of humanitarian intervention.

      Regional instability leads to war and escalation- multiple factors ensure extinction

      Russell ‘9

      Russell, Editor of Strategic Insights, ‘9 (James- Senior Lecturer Department of National Security Affairs, Spring, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” Security Studies Center Proliferation Papers,

      Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined

      AND

      , with substantial risk for the entire world.

      Protests don’t lead to peaceful transition- they ensure an authoritarianism worse than the one they replaced

      Democracy Digest ‘11

      (“EU aid to Arab world must deliver on the ‘D’ word to avoid Russia’s democratic disillusion”, , May 9, 2011)

       

      The organizing role and emergence of genuine labor

      AND

      to create jobs and opportunities for the young.”

       

      Rule of law reform is key to transforming the underground economy and ending economic apartheid in Egypt

      DeSoto 11

      HERNANDO DE SOTO Op Ed Wall Street Journal February 3, 2011 http://www.imra.org.il/story.php3?id=50953

      Egypt's underground economy was the nation's biggest employer

      AND

      many demonstrating in the streets will remain unfulfilled.

       

       

       

      Solvency

      US anti-corruption reform is key- past failures are due to lack of engagement with economic institutions- leads to effective small business, middle class management, youth inclusion and is a pre-req to effective governance aid in other sectors

      Sullivan 11

      (John D, Ph.D., the Executive Director of the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE),  2-23-11, Project on Middle East Democracy, “Rethinking Development Assistance in the Middle East,” pgs. 3-5, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/policy-brief-series_sullivan.pdf)

      In a section highlighting the need for high

      AND

      government and business, especially in public procurement.

      Anti-corruption is key- dismantles corrupt Egyptian capitalism and produces social justice

      Mustafa 10/12

      (Hala, the Editor-in-Chief of the Al-Ahram political quarterly “Democracy” (Al Dimocratiya), “Strategic Public Diplomacy: The Case of Egypt” produced by Bipartisan Policy Center, , pg. 7)

      Economically, Egypt is still governed by an

      AND

      framework that fulfills the promise of our revolution.

      and business groups, along with strong policy advocacy.

      Anti-corruption is a pre-requisite to effective foreign aid- only the US has the infrastructure

      Diamond, ‘8

      (Larry, Senior fellow at the Hoover Institute “End Foreign Aid As We Know It,” Democracy Journal, No 8, Spring 2008, http://www.democracyjournal.org/8/6584.php)

       

      But these new principles still govern only a

      AND

      projects, and thus slow to send money.

      US is the anti-corruption leader- most effective in creating partnerships

      Donnelly ‘11

      (Shaun, former USTR for the Middle East and Europe, “The Neglected Pillar: America’s Economic Agenda in the Middle East,” 6-22-11, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3373)

       

      Fighting corruption. Citizens across the Middle East

      AND

      business groups, along with strong policy advocacy.

       




01/03/12
  • Water Wars

    • Tournament: Texas Swings | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Anti-corruption key to the Egyptian environment- only way to enforce environmental legislation, create oversight, and stop resource depletion

      Wardam ‘11

      (Batir, Editor of Arab Environment Watch, 10 years working experience in Academic institutions, Non-Governmental Organizations, international environmental organizations (UNDP, IUCN, UNEP, World Bank, etc..), government and media institutions, “The Environmental Dimensions of Arab Revolutions”, February 28, 2011, http://bwardam.wordpress.com/2011/02/28/the-environmental-dimensions-of-arab-revolutions/)

       

      Egypt, the heart of the Arab

      coming weeks and months.

      Development aid now solves environmental capacity- assistance to solve enforcement is key

      UK Trade and Investment ‘10

      (“Environment Opportunities in Egypt”, www.ukti.gov.uk/download/112456_101939/Environment%2520Sector%2520in%2520Egypt.html)

       

      Egypt has seen various

      enforcement of environmental laws.

      Preventable pollution is destroying quality of water in the Nile

      International Consultants Egypt 9

      Institutional framework and decisionmaking practices for water management

      in Egypt .

      Water quality degradation

      shallow groundwater to pollution.

       

      Inadequate environmental governance allows the pollution

      International Consultants Egypt 9

      Institutional framework and decisionmaking practices for water management

      in Egypt .

      Currently, discharge permits for industrial

      a grace period for compliance

      Pollution causes water wars

      Rahman 7-24-11

      Majeed A. Rahman is Professor of African Studies at the University of Wisconsin-Milawaukee

      The Geopolitics of Water in the Nile River Basin http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=25746

       

      Kofi Anan reiterated that

      north East African people.

      This will force Egypt to war with Ethiopia—drawing in Israel destabilizing the Middle East

      Rotberg, directs Harvard Kennedy School’s Program on Intrastate Conflict, 10

      Robert I. Rotberg, The Boston Globe, The threat of a water war: Egypt and Sudan draw battle lines with upstream nations over access to the Nile, , July 2, 2010

      NATIONS FIGHT over water

      of the World Peace Foundation.

      Extinction

      Beres 8/17

      Louis René Beres 8-17, prof of poli sci and international law at Purdue, “Israel, anarchy and global chaos”,

      In history, there is

      These effects would be chaotic.




01/07/12
  • Mapes Sears Yemen Aff NJDDT

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • 1ac

      Inherency

      Despite commitments to assistance, No one will act in Yemen until the US shifts from terror focus

       (Lack of US action in Yemen has an international chilling effect)

      (US makes Saudi do it)

      (Arab league/UN/Turkey won’t)

      Sharqieh and Freer 10-9-11 (Ibrahim and Courtney, Deputy Director and Research Assistance at the Brookings Doha Center in Qatar,  "yemen needs action, not just talk," Philadelphia Inquirer, articles.philly.com/2011-10-09/news/30260352_1_president-saleh-ali-abdullah-saleh-regime-change)

      While coordinated international intervention took place in oil

      AND

      months to transfer power to his vice president.

      PLAN

      Plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase its rule of law assistance for promotion of environmental governance for Yemen.

      Adv 1-Water

      Lack of environmental enforcement has lead to a water crisis

      (no assistance now)

      (terror focus with the US)

      (western nations won’t either)

      Glass 10 (Nicole, "The Water Crisis in Yemen: Causes, Consequences and Solutions," Global Majority E-Journal, Vol. 1, No. 1, June, www.american.edu/cas/economics/ejournal/upload/Global_Majority_e_Journal_1-1_Glass.pdf)

      With no food, no water, and

      AND

      the population to participate in water conservation methods.

      Water is the key internal link to Yemeni instability-brink of war now

      (political unrest is about water)

      (tribal conflicts with the government)

      (secessionist movement)

      (high cost of water)

      (gov’t doesn’t want to THINK about water)

      Kasinof 9 (Laura, "At heart of Yemen's conflicts: Water crisis," Christian Science Monitor, November 5, www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2009/1105/p06s13-wome.html)

      While domestic insurgencies chip away at the control

      AND

      social value of qat chewing in this society."

      Large scale conflict in the near future-

      (CIVIL WAR W/US ALREADY DRAWN IN AND AL QUAEDA INVOLVED)

      (Secessionist movement is based on water)

      (secessionist movement will be a war)

      (security is resources)

      (resources not regulated)

      (our intervention will not help, terror and war)

      Marburger 10 (Lindsey, manages Earth Systems Program at the Federation of American Scientists, "Security in Yemen: Thinking Beyond Terrorism," Federation of American Scientists, October 14, www.fas.org/blog/earthsys        ems/2010/10/security-in-yemen-thinking-beyond-terrorism/)

      Security in Yemen is increasingly a matter of

      AND

      water there can be no stability and security.

       

      Escalates regionally

      (yemen conflict is a signpost that other conflicts are coming)

      (run out of water leads to conflict)

      (tribal insurgency)

      (al quaeda)

      (secessionist movement)

      (gov’t can’t handle terror and all this stuff AND water)

      (climate refugees/global warming)

      (climate refugees NOW--will go across borders, that produces more pressure elsewhere and war—Uqly KEY WITH SANAA WILL RUN OUT)

      UPI 9 ("Yemen's water crisis a Mideast Warning," United Presse International, October 29, www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2009/10/29/Yemens-water-crisis-a-Mideast-warning/UPI-52511256844951/)

      SANAA, Yemen, Oct. 29 (

      AND

      region itself is much more vulnerable geopolitically speaking."

      The US gets drawn in – causes regional instability

      (CA russel in 9 in 2ac—tight story when paired)

      Red State 11 (Most Widely Read Right of Center Blog in America, "What happens if the Saudi Regime collapses?" June 5, http://www.redstate.com/gawken/2011/06/05/what-happens-if-the-saudi-regime-collapses/)

      If the Middle East were a game of

      AND

      Riyahd will go on as it has been.

      Middle east war goes nuclear

      (Most likely scenario for nuclear conflict - lack of security framework and historical rivalries/regional geopolitics.)

      James A. Russell, Senior Lecturer, National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School, ‘9 (Spring) “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” IFRI, Proliferation Papers, #26, http://www.ifri.org/downloads/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf

      Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined

      AND

      , with substantial risk for the entire world.

       

       

       

      Adv 2-South African Rhino Poaching

      A. South African rhino will go extinct by 2015 from poaching

      IARF 2-3-12 International Animal Rescue Foundation & Rhino Ultimatum http://www.change.org/petitions/act-now-sa-government-end-rhino-killings-imminent-rhino-extinction

      The RHINO ULTIMATUM, addressed to the South

      AND

      around three to four years left on Earth.

      B. Yemen drives the poaching of the South African Rhino

      Bagheera no date “BLACK RHINO AN ENDANGERED SPECIES” http://www.bagheera.com/inthewild/van_anim_rhino.htm

      Unlike most large mammals, habitat loss has

      AND

      for many subsistence farmers and herders to resist.

      White Rhinos in South Africa are irreplaceable, key to the ecosystem

      Waldram et al 7 (Matthew, [William Bond and William Stock], Botany Department at the University of Capetown, Centre for Ecosystem Management at Edith Cowan University, "Ecological Engineering by a Mega-Grazer: White Rhino Impacts on a South African Savanna," Ecosystems, DOI: 10.10007/s100021-007-9109-9, March 24, www.mattwaldram.com/Pubs/Waldram_Ecosys_11_101.pdf)

      As Rhino removals are likely to cause,

      AND

      apparently compensated for the grazing impact of Rhino.

      Extinction of the BLACK Rhino has a symbolic effect – causes overall species loss ( I am not sure what this card gets us, I think that we should remove it)

      AAZK 11 (American Association of Zoo Keepers, "Bowling for Rhinos FAQ," aazk.org/committee/bowling-for-rhinos/bowling-for-rhinos-faq/#q2)

      The black rhino is a symbol of conservation

      AND

      many endangered species, not just the rhino.

      Spills over—collapses biodiversity throughout the region

      Cheyenne Mountain Zoo 10 ("Why Would We Be Bowling for Rhinos?" April 6, cheyennemountainzooblog.blogspot.com/2010/04/why-would-we-be-bowling-for-rhinos.html)

      Rhinos are a keystone species•They

      AND

      many other endangered species as well as rhinos.

      Leads to human extinction --most recent and qualified studies confirm

      (critiques of biod prolly just say not qualitified because of the limited scope—takes into account—more factors taken into account, greater correlation)

      Science Daily 11 ("Biodiversity Key to Earth's Life-Support Functions in a CHanging World,"  Cites Albert-Ludwigs-Universitat Freiburg, August 11, www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/08/110811084513.htm

      ScienceDaily (Aug. 11, 2011)

      AND

      factor in maintaining Earth's life-support functions.

      Solvency

      The U.S. is the best in the world at environmental governance assistance

      Lapham 04

      Nicholas, Vice President for policy at Conservation International, Senior Program Officer for environment at the UN Foundation, and Senior Adviser to the White House Climate Change Task Force under President Clinton." In, Rising Stakes in Africa:  Seven Proposals to Strengthen U.S. Africa Policy  A Report of the Africa Policy Advisory Panel- Center For Strategic and International Studies  p. 88

      The United States has a distinct comparative advantage

      AND

      natural resources; and unsustainable commercial wildlife exploitation.

      Only the U.S. has the expertise and experience for developing effective environmental governance assistance—created national parks

      Lapham 04

      Nicholas, Vice President for policy at Conservation

      AND

      Center For Strategic and International Studies  p. 91

      No country is better positioned to help Africa

      AND

      different political systems, cultures, and economies.

      The U.S. has used democracy assistance for environmental governance

      Diamond 2000

      Nancy K. Diamond, Ph.DGreening Democracy and Governing the Environment USAID Experiences from the Field

      http://www.worldwildlife.org/bsp/publications/asia/greening/greening.html#exploring

      DG [Democracy & Governance] approaches are

      AND

      and work by the Regional Urban Development Offices.

      REBELS BLOCK AID BECAUSE OF US TERROR FOCUS

      (no one will work in the areas of greatest conflict/no one can work in those areas)

      (only yemen government is allowed into the conflict areas, means only they can solve the prob themselves with governance assistance)

      IRIN 10-5-11. Integrated Regional Information Networks humanitarian news and analysis, a service of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs “Is Yemen on the Brink of Humanitarian Disaster?”

      http://www.alternet.org/water/152618/is_yemen_on_the_brink_of_humanitarian_disaster/?utm_source=feedblitz&utm_medium=FeedBlitzRss&utm_campaign=alternet_water

      Aid workers say Yemen is on the verge

      AND

      new rules banning international staff from supervising activities.

      ONLY Plan solves perception

      Green 11 (Daniel, Soref Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, "The American Moment in Yemen," Fikra Forum, April 18, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/)

      If the United States adopts a new approach

      AND

      which to launch attacks against the United States.

      Only technical assistance solves

      (yemen’s shortcomings in fauna/floral)

      USAID 6 (United States Agency for International Development, "Interim Strategic Plan for Assistance to the Republic of Yemen," April pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PDABY268.pdf)

      Degradation of Natural Habitats

      Effective management of natural habitats is hampered by

      AND

      between ministries, and lack of enforcement capacity. 

      Solutions haven’t been implemented because of weak capacity

      Green Prophet 10 ("Waterless by 2017? Yemen Capital Fails to Harvest Its Summer Rain," August 26, www.greenprophet.com/2010/08/yemen-summer-rain/)

      Despite record rainfall in the Yemeni capital Sanaa

      AND

      consumption, especially for irrigation, he said.

       




03/11/12

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