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KSU Ziegler-Kowaleski

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1
  • Tunisia 1AC Fullerton

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    •  

      Inherency

       

      No disads – the US has been and continues to be massively committed to dozens of aid programs for the indefinite future for Tunisia.  These include transparent governance, rule of law, information sharing, military and civil society aid.  Your links are terminally non-unique – included massive elections aid

      DoS 9/22

      (Department of State, “Statement on U.S.-Tunisia Political and Economic Partnership,” 2011, )

       

      Though our bilateral friendship has … clean technology in the country.

       

      Only takes out the disads – focus is entirely on transparency in governance on the civil society level, including the OTI.  No aid is going directly to political parties

      USAID 11               

      (United States Agency for International Development, “Transition Initiatives: Tunisia,” 2011, )

       

      Program Description After a month of … and engage with decision makers.

       

      The problem with the focus on transparent governance is that Ennahda has never governed before

      Novotný 11/28

      (Daniel, currently affiliated with Monash University as an Endeavour Research Fellow and is also lecturing at Deakin University, Melbourne. He specializes, in general, in international relations and security of the Asia-Pacific and the EU foreign policy strategy; “Op-ed: Moroccan Elections and the ‘Islamist Challenge’: A Reason for EU Concern?,” 2011, )

       

      However, it is misleading to … as utmost hostile and unacceptable.

       

      And, the US hasn’t engaged Ennahda directly and will only give political posturing, not engagement

      Fitouri 11/9      

      (Samia, Tunisian university student and writer at Tunisia Live, “Ennahda Responds Positively to Clinton Speech,” 2011, )

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

      An Ennahda spokesman said that … made with the Obama administration.

       

      And that means they need more basic assistance about how to govern in the first place.  Otherwise, parties that have never governed inevitably get bullied and lose credibility causing governmental instability

      Olsen, et al 10                          

      (Jonathan, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Wisconsin-Parkside, USA. He has published widely on German and European politics; Michael Koß, Lecturer in Politics at the University of Potsdam, Germany. He has published widely on political parties, comparative European politics and left-wing politics; Dan Hough, Senior Lecturer in Politics at the University of Sussex, UK. He has published widely on political parties, German politics, multi-level politics and left-wing politics; “From Pariahs to Players? Left Parties in National Governments,” July 16, )

       

      Deciding to enter government is … political risks at a later date.

       

      And, we have empirical evidence.  The OTI was crucial to the ability of new opposition parties to effectively govern after the ouster of Kyrgyzstan’s former government

      USAID 10

      (“Transition Initiatives: Kyrgyzstan,” May, )

       

      Program Description In May 2010, USAID's … information for informed decision making.

       

      Plan

       

      The United States federal government should substantially increase its governance programs to the Ennahda party of Tunisia focusing on effective governance for new governmental coalitions.

       

      Smart Power Adv

       

      The US is attempting to shift to smart power now, but budget cuts are threatening to cripple the transition

      Amies 11/20

      (Nick, writer at dw-world.de, “Budget cuts threaten US 'smart power' plans,” 2011, )

      It was supposed to be a … Chatham House, told Deutsche Welle.

       

      Unconditional and positively perceived support for democracy is key to transition to an ideational model of Middle East engagement – it’s the only internal link to long-term regional stability and economic recovery.  The alternative is failed states, global authoritarianism, human rights violations, and global US power projection collapse.  No turns – serial policy failure is only inevitable absent this transition
       
      Peter Fettner 11, prof and PhD candidate in philosophy at Temple, published writer and researcher on US foreign policy, (writing under the pseudonym Byron), “Investigative Analysis: Soft Power in the Middle East – Reforming American Foreign Policy”, August 26,

      “The soft power of a … citizen diplomacy and international friendship.

       

      We have the biggest internal link – the world is watching Tunisia and Ennahda

      Bryant 11/28

      (Elizabeth, writer for Religion News Service, “In Tunisia, popular Ennahda party tests ‘moderate’ Islam,” 2011, )

      The Tunisian uprising triggered the … is a reappropriation of their identity."

       

      The plan’s direct assistance to political parties is relatively new to USAID programs – it’s one of the key ways the US signals commitment to democracies

      USAID 3

      (“USAID Political Party Assistance Policy,” September, )

      The United States Interest The … as de facto political parties.

       

      Credibility is essential for successful smart power

      Armitage and Nye 2007 – Richard L, Deputy Secretary of State from 2001 to 2005 and Joseph S., former assistant secretary of defense, teaches political science at Harvard, they co-chaired the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Commission on Smart Power (Time for Smart Power, Beifer Center at Harvard, , MCL)

      The world is dissatisfied with … . We call this smart power.

       

      Solves every transnational threat – extinction

      Ikenberry, 11 [spring, A World of Our Making G. John Ikenberry is the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princetonhttp://www.democracyjournal.org/20/a-world-of-our-making.php?page=all]

      Grand Strategy as Liberal Order … process of gaining it back.

       

      Constitution Adv

       

      Direct bilateral engagement by the US is the key internal link to rebuild regional relationships.  Failure to engage uncritically will collapse pluralism and destroy regional US support, resulting in cascading anti-Americanism

      Schmidt November 2011

      (Andrew, Senior at the University of Chicago studying Political Science and Near Eastern Languages and Civ, “Don't Be Afraid of the Big Bad Tunisian Islamists,” no exact date given )

       

      The final results of the … a free and prosperous civil society.

       

      Scenario 1 is pluralism

       

      Failure to create a Constitutional Assembly that enforces pluralistic ideologies will cause rejection of the constitution – that causes democratic rollback, instability and violence that spills over to failed states throughout Africa.  Also, no turns – radical, unilateral Islamic power and authoritarianism are only inevitable absent the plan

      Paciello 11

      Research associate at Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) in Rome and lecturer in Economic and Political Geography of Development at La Sapienza University of Rome

      Maria Cristina Paciello, Tunisia:  Changes and Challenges of Political Transition, MEDPRO Technical Report No. 3/May 2011

       

      As seen above, Tunisia is … intentions are not yet clear.

       

      Africa is on the brink of widespread state failure

      Ndiho 11

      (Paul, owner of Vipi Africa, “AFRICAN COUNTRIES TOP THE LIST OF FAILING STATES INDEX – 2011,” July 20, )

       

      A study published by the … to overthrow Somalia's transitional government.

       

      African state failure causes cascading state failure, political polarization, nuclear terrorism, disease spread, nuclear wars throughout Europe, collapsed US-EU relations and massive prolif – deterrence theory wouldn’t apply

      African Studies Centre et al 3

      (The Transnational Institute, The Center of Social Studies, Coimbra University, and The Peace Research Center – CIP-FUHEM, “Failed and Collapsed States in the International System,” December, found at: )

       

      In the malign scenario of … attacks on their national security.

       

      Nuclear terrorism would cause retaliation and extinction

      Sid-Ahmed ‘4

      (Mohamed, Managing Editor for Al-Ahali, “Extinction!” August 26-September 1, Issue no. 705, )

       

      A nuclear attack by terrorists … , we will all be losers.

       

      Infectious diseases cause extinction

      The Scotsman, September 11, 1995, “The Mega Death,” p. 13

       

      Bullets and bombs may be … to engage in biological warfare.

       

      European war causes global nuclear war

      Charles Glaser, assistant professor in the Graduate School of Public Policy Studies at the Univ. of Chicago, Summer 1993, International Security, “Why NATO is Still Best,” Vol. 18, No. 1, Academic Search Elite, p. 8-9

       

      However, although the lack of … be unconcerned about Europe’s future.

       

      US-EU relations prevent multiple global conflicts

      Asmus ‘3

      (Ronald D.; Senior Fellow – Council on Foreign Relations) “Rebuilding the Atlantic Alliance” Foreign Affairs Sept/Oct l/n

       

      Meeting in Washington in the … be much the better for it

       

      Prolif makes nuclear war inevitable – the terminal impact is extinction

      Stuart Taylor Jr., National Journal senior writer, contributing editor at Newsweek, September 16, 2002, Legal Times, “Worry about Iraq’s intentions, but focus on the bigger threat: nuclear weapons controlled by any terrorist or rogue state,” p. 60

       

      Unless we get serious about … extend the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       




01/07/12
3
  • TAEFA Aff

    • Tournament: UMKC | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • PLAN TEXT =

       

      The United States Federal Government should pass the Tunisian American Enterprise Fund Act.

       

      Adv 1 - Growth

       

      Tunisia’s economy is on the brink – economic stagnation correlates directly with political unrest.

      Xinhua 12/2

      (… Employment and Greater Social Justice.

       

      Continued lack of job creation leads to endless cycles of revolution.

      Schuman 8/22/11

      Michael Why the Arab Spring's success depends on jobs, not guns http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/08/22/why-the-arab-spring%e2%80%99s-success-depends-on-jobs-not-guns/#ixzz1Vn36NoHY

      The roots of the Arab … progress – through jobs, not guns.

       

      Current policies don’t create jobs—equity for small and medium businesses are the missing factor.

      Whiton, Harrison & Szrom 2011

      CHRISTIAN WHITON U.S. State Department official from 2003-2009, special advisor to the Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs,. KRISTOFER HARRISON senior managing director for a leading provider of macro-economic policy intelligence to hedge funds, investment banks and asset managers. CHARLIE SZROM Senior Analyst Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, Feb. 2011 FIXING FOREIGN AID: THE MISSING MIDDLE Expanding Middle Classes in Muslim-Majority Countries through Private Enterprise Development Hamilton Foundation

      Shifting the Focus to the … not present in large quantities.

       

      US needs to act now to show support for Tunisians and provide a stable investment climate – they will say yes

      Stephen McInerney 10/13

      (Briefing :: Elections and Political Transition in Tunisia Executive Director, Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED) Date: Thursday, October 13, 2011 )

      One thing that I think is … to provide assistance for Tunisia

       

      Successful US investment in Tunisia is critical to investment throughout Libya and the rest of the Middle East

      US Department of State 11/7

      (Tunisia Partnerships Forum: Tunisian … the American market as well.

       

      Plan is a critical investment in regional growth and the biggest internal link to peaceful Tunisian stability – the core goal is sustainable democracy.

      Schiff 11

       (… companion legislation in the Senate.

       

      Scenario 1 IS STABILITY

       

      Job growth is the critical variable in stabilizing transitions.

      Keith Crane, Steven Simon, Jeffrey Martini 2011

      Future Challenges for the Arab World The Implications of Demographic and Economic Trends Prepared for the United States Air Force Rand Corporation

      No other economic issue is … of pressure for political change.

       

      Economic growth is empirically the most important factor in sustaining democracy.

      Charles Landow, ‘11

       associate director of CFR’s Civil Society, Markets, and Democracy Initiative “The Economic Approach to Middle East Democracy”  http://blogs.cfr.org/coleman/2011/06/08/the-economic-approach-to-middle-east-democracy/?cid=soc-Twitter-in-Middle_East-060911

      As Egypt and Tunisia navigate … economic development helps democracy endure.

       

      That triggers Middle East war

      KUNA ’11

      (Kuwait news Agency, “Specter Of War Looming In Mideast, Says Israeli General” 9/5/11 http://www.eurasiareview.com/specter-of-war-looming-in-mideast-says-israeli-general-05092011/)

      Recent revolutions in the Arab … capabilities,” one of them said.

       

      High risk of nuclear escalation—multiple reasons.

      Russell ‘9

       James A. Spring  Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East managing editor of Strategic Insights, the quarterly ejournal published by the Center for Contemporary Conflict at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) in Monterey, California. He also serves as senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, where he is teaching courses on Middle East security affairs, terrorism, and national security strategy. From 1988-2001, Mr. Russell held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affair\ s, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense. www.nps.edu/academbvics/sigs/ccc/people/biolinks/.../PP26_Russell_2009.pdf

      Strategic stability in the region … risk for the entire world.

       

      SCENARIO 2 IS DESERTEC

       

      Couching investment in terms of democracy is critical to sustain support for DESERTEC

      Economywatch 11

      Economywatch, 2011 (April 12, Could Political Instability … Africa and the Middle East.

       

      Specifically, Tunisia is the linchpin to Desertec’s success – solar is critical to succes

      Ayari 11/8

      (“Prosol and Desertec will … contributions in terms of skills.

       

      Solves Global Warming and European energy security- Starting in Africa ensures market competitiveness

      Hulme et al., ’10 

      (Proffesor Michael- Founding Director … import of renewable power from

       

      Warming leads to extinction.

      Tickell ‘8 

      (Oliver, Climate Researcher, “On a Planet 4C Hotter, All We Can Prepare for is Extinction,” The Guardian,, Mike)

      We need to get prepared … us towards a similar hothouse Earth.

       

      SCENARIO 3 IS TERRORISM

       

      AQIM is growing and looking to Tunisian instability as a way to leverage support – democratic transition is the best way to decrease extremism through North Africa

      Villarosa 11

      Shari Villarosa, Deputy Coordinator Regional Affairs, House Committee on Homeland Security, Subcommittee on Oversight, Investigations, and Management, 2011 (June 7, DENYING TERRORISTS SAFE HAVENS: EFFORTS TO COUNTER THREATS FROM PAKISTAN, YEMEN, AND SOMALIA, http://www.uspolicy.be/headline/denying-terrorists-safe-havens-efforts-counter-threats-pakistan-yemen-and-somalia)

      Before I talk about Somalia, I’d … of containing and marginalizing AQIM.

       

      Economic growth is the critical factor to ensure AQ does not increase its power

      Potomac Institute for Policy Studies 9

      Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, 2009 (March 31, WHY THE MAGHREB MATTERS: THREATS, OPPORTUNITIES, AND OPTIONS FOR EFFECTIVE AMERICAN ENGAGEMENT IN NORTH AFRICA, http://www.potomacinstitute.org/images/studies/NorthAfricaPolicyPaper033109.pdf)

      Another cluster of needs is … would be the likely result.

       

      Addressing terrorism in the Maghreb depends upon US support for the region, particularly soft elements – if we fail we remain hostages and targets of terrorism for the next century

      Potomac Institute for Policy Studies 11

      Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, 2011 (January, 2011 Report Update The Consequences of Terrorism—An Update on al-Qaeda and other Terrorist Threats in the Sahel & Maghreb, http://www.potomacinstitute.org/attachments/863_2011%20REPORT%20UPDATE%20Maghreb%20%20Sahel%20Terrorism.pdf)

      In sum, coherent and firm … remainder of the 21st century.

       

      Terrorist attack risks extinction

      Alexander 3

      (Yonah Alexander, Prof and Director of Inter-University for Terrorism Studies, 2003 (August 27, Terrorism Myths and Realities, Washington Times, )

      Last week's brutal suicide bombings … , regional and global security concerns.

       

      SCENARIO 4 IS SMART POWER

       

      FIRST _ US economic commitment to Tunisia is critical to send a signal of US involvement in the region

      Hamid 11

      Shadi Hamid, Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center, 2011 (April 26, The Struggle for Middle East Democracy, http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2011/0426_middle_east_hamid.aspx)

      The revolutions are far from … already explosive situation even worse.

       

      SECOND - Failure in Tunisia undermines US leadership

      Carpenter 11

      J. Scott Carpenter, Keston family fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2011 (February 24, Help Tunisia First, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/24/help_tunisia_first?page=full)

      The U.S. government should be acting … Tunisian counterparts of American support

       

      Credibility is essential for successful smart power

      Armitage and Nye 2007 –

      Richard L, Deputy Secretary of State from 2001 to 2005 and Joseph S., former assistant secretary of defense, teaches political science at Harvard, they co-chaired the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Commission on Smart Power (Time for Smart Power, Beifer Center at Harvard, , MCL)

      The world is dissatisfied with … . We call this smart power.

       

       

      Solves every transnational threat – extinction

      Ikenberry, 11

      [spring, A World of Our Making G. John Ikenberry is the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton, http://www.democracyjournal.org/20/a-world-of-our-making.php?page=all]

      Grand Strategy as Liberal Order … process of gaining it back.

       

       

       

       

       

       

       




01/29/12
  • Syria Aff

    • Tournament: D3 Districts | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Plan

       

      The United States Federal Government should substantially increase technical assistance and dialogue support for democratic reconciliation reforms between the Syrian government and opposition groups.

       

      Adv 1 US Russian Relations 1ac

       

      Refusal for engagement with dialogue is straining US / RUSSIA relations

      Daily Star 2.9 (Read more: … how such a mission should work.

       

      Supporting reconciliation is key

      Anishchuk 2/8 (“Results of Syria talks … for him to cede power.

       

      Visible success spills over – solves alt causes – accommodation enough to provide relations momentum.

      Graham ‘9

      Thomas Graham served as special assistant to the president and senior director for Russia on the National Security Council staff, 2004–07Resurgent Russia and U.S. Purposes http://tcf.org/events/pdfs/ev257/Graham.pdf

      Nothing in Russia’s understanding of … in a search for common ground.

       

      That checks multiple scenarios for extinction.

      Graham ‘9

      (Thomas Graham served as special assistant to the president and senior director for Russia on the National Security Council staff, 2004–07Resurgent Russia and U.S. Purposes http://tcf.org/events/pdfs/ev257/Graham.pdf)

      The challenges facing the United … efficiently, and managing climate change.

       

      Super Terrorism causes extinction

      Alexander 3

      (Yonah Alexander, Prof and Director of Inter-University for Terrorism Studies, 2003 (August 27, Terrorism Myths and Realities, Washington Times, )

      Last week's brutal suicide bombings … , regional and global security concerns.

       

      Disease spread causes extinction

      Singer, 01(Clifford E. Singer, Director of the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security at the University of Illinois at Urbana – Champaign, Professor of nuclear engineering @ University of Illinois at Urbana – Champaign, "Will Mankind Survive the Millennium?," The Bulletin of the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Volume XIII / Number 1 / Spring 2001 pg.  http://www.acdis.uiuc.edu /research/S&Ps/2001-Sp/S&P _XIII/Singer.htm)

      There are, however, two technologies … and if this is achieved.

       

      Warming causes extinction

      Deibel 7 – Terry L. Deibel, Professor of National Strategy at the National War College, 2007, Foreign Affairs Strategy: Logic for American Statecraft, p. 387-389

      Finally, there is one major … of life on this planet.

       

      Prolif causes extinction

      /\*Victor Utgoff, Deputy Director … hazardous manufacturing and storage activities.

       

      Adv 2 Putin Credibility

       

      7

       

      Putin will avoid a run-off now – he needs a run-off to keep his credibility to prove he is not rigging the election – victory in the long run inevitable

      Meyer 2/13 (“Putin Opponents Say Forced … before the election on Feb. 24.

       

      US refusal to encourage dialogue allows Putin to shore up his base for upcoming election

      Isachenkov 2/5 (Vladimir, Associated Press, CHICAGO … consolidate his support among nationalists.

       

      The Russian Public is uniquely scared by America’s lack of endorsement of dialogue in Syria

      Bluwi 2/18 (… be exploited to the end.

       

      Putin’s election cred is key to Russian economic growth and stability

      Thomson 2/6 (2012, … may be even more important.

       

      Russian economic decline causes nuclear war that could destroy the globe

      Filger 9 (Sheldon, Staff Huffington http://… is its least dangerous consequence.

       

      Russian econ collapse triggers US collapse

      Cooper 9 (William, Specialist in International … and Central Asian energy flows.

       

      Adv 3 - Russia China Alliance

       

      4

       

      US refusal to encourage dialogue will cause A STRONGER Russia China Alliance

      Ching 2/17 (Frank, China may have to pay a price for being more assertive, 2012,  

      BEIJING'S veto, along with that … fig leaf to hide behind.

       

      Several Scenarios for World War

       

      FIRST – Britain instigation

       

      US opposition to Russia and China is justifying Britain’s attempt to start world war 3

      Steinberg 2/10 (Jeffrey and Michelle )

      If there were any doubt … beyond Weimar Germany's Autumn 1923 blowout.

       

      Second Space Wars -

       

      Russia and China are cooperating on aeronautics ventures now

      Karnozov 2/14 (… to carry 128,000 pounds of cargo.

       

      China’s Space Program is at a crossroads, not sure if aligning with Russia or seeking cooperation – they have tons of money are increasing militarization now – can be reversed – key to getting off the rock

      Teitel 9/29 (, 2011, Amy, A New Space Race? What China's Tiangong 1 Launch Means for NASA)

      China has launched Tiangong 1, a prototype … Space Program undertake a joint mission.

       

      Status quo arms race perpetuates ensures miscalculation through reactionary policies

      MacDonald, Council on Foreign Relations, ‘8

      (“China, space weapons, and U.S. … neither went down this path.

       

      ***Animosity with Russia and China in space makes a space war inevitable

      MacDonald, Council on Foreign Relations, ‘8

      (“China, space weapons, and U.S. … that U.S. military space assets provide.

       

      Only joint cooperation by the US / CHINA / and RUSSIA  in Syria can prevent solar storms and asteroids from causing extinction

      Denniston 11/25 (2011, As World War Threatens, … Bering Strait rail tunnel connection

       

      Third  – NATO

       

      Russia US cooperation that involves China is critical to prevent a hardening alliance that collapses Russia Nato Cooperation and decreases dependence on the dollar

      Zevelev 10/10 (Igor, The China factor … more leverage in world finances.

       

      That solves your disads – integrating Russia into NATO allows for NATO to stop global conflict escalation and proliferation

      ORENSTEIN 2 (Mitchell, Editor of Russia Watch Special Edition, Russia Watch, April)

      Events since September 11 show clearly … greater than many have imagined.

       

      Exclusion from NATO causes Arctic conflicts

      Lisken, Alexander, Staff Writer for Ria Novosti, A Leading Russian News Source, 09

      (“ U.S. analyst says NATO-Russia Council ideal for Arctic talks”, http://en.rian.ru/world/20090527/155103313.html)

      MOSCOW, May 27 (RIA Novosti) - A leading U.S. … a nuclear test by North Korea.

       

      Left unchecked, these disputes lead to a US-Russia war

      Zellen, 07- Barry, Security Innovator, “The Polar Show Down: As the Arctic's ice begins to melt, a new race for its undersea resources begins” August 23, 2007 http://securityinnovator.com/index.php?articleID=12387&sectionID=43

      In response to Russia’s aggressive … depleted over the next 20 years.”

       

      Poor Russian NATO relations cause instability in Europe

      Commission on U.S. Policy toward Russia 09- a joint project of The Nixon Center and the Belfer Center for Science and

      International Affairs at Harvard University; “The Right Direction for U.S. Policy toward Russia” March, 2009; http://www.nixoncenter.org/RussiaReport09.pdf

      The potential collapse of the … Union to make specific proposals.

       

      European instability causes nuclear war

      Khalilzad 95; Zalmay RAND, The Washington Quarterly, Spring 1995, p. Lexis

      With the shifting balance of … more catastrophic than the last.

       

       

       

       

       

       

       




03/06/12
  • CEDA RD 2 - 1AC

    • Tournament: CEDA | Round: 2 | Opponent: OKLAHOMA ML | Judge: ERIC SHORT

    • PLAN TEXT =

       

      The United States Federal Government should substantially increase its technical assistance, strategic advice and support to private entrepreneurs as well as small and medium-sized businesses in Tunisia.

       

      Contention 1 - Economy

       

      Tunisia’s economy is on the brink – the growth rate is zero – foreign direct investment is decreasing.

      2-15

      (Amine, program director of the Al-Kawakibi Democracy Transition Center, “Tunisia works to halt a downward economic spiral,” 2012, )

      However, the only way this momentum

      country’s economic downturn.

       

      Unemployment is soaring – demonstrations are happening now – job creation is key.

      Lamboley – All Africa News – 3-22

      (Carolyn, “Tunisia:  Unemployed Graduates Take to the Streets Across the Country”, p. http://allafrica.com/stories/201203221395.html)

      Yesterday, educated unemployed youth demonstrated

      and would take to the streets of the capital on April 7.

       

      The root of the Arab spring was mercantilist economic policy – turning away from global markets is the problem, not contradictions in market logic– no alternative to economic prosperity but international investment.

      Schuman ‘11

      Michael Why the Arab Spring's success depends on jobs, not guns, 8/11, http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/08/22/why-the-arab-spring%e2%80%99s-success-depends-on-jobs-not-guns/#ixzz1Vn36NoHY

      The roots of the Arab Spring are planted in

      that might well be through economic progress – through jobs, not guns.

       

      Current U.S. policies don’t create jobs—equity for small and medium businesses are the missing factor.

      Whiton, Harrison & Szrom 2011

      CHRISTIAN WHITON U.S. State Department official from 2003-2009, special advisor to the Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs,. KRISTOFER HARRISON senior managing director for a leading provider of macro-economic policy intelligence to hedge funds, investment banks and asset managers. CHARLIE SZROM Senior Analyst Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, Feb. 2011 FIXING FOREIGN AID: THE MISSING MIDDLE Expanding Middle Classes in Muslim-Majority Countries through Private Enterprise Development Hamilton Foundation

      Shifting the Focus to the Middle Class—and SMEs Although the U.S. government

      where it is not present in large quantities.

       

      US needs to act now to show support for Tunisians and provide a stable investment climate – they will say yes

      Stephen McInerney 11

      (Briefing :: Elections and Political Transition in Tunisia Executive Director, Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED) Date: Thursday, October 13, 2011 )

      One thing that I think is important is

      working in different ways to provide assistance for Tunisia

       

      Successful US investment in Tunisia is key to investment throughout the Middle East

      DOS 11

      (Tunisia Partnerships Forum: Tunisian Priorities. American Investments. Fact Sheet The Global Partnership Initiative Washington, DC November 7, 2011, )

      A number of indicators exist to make

      would serve the American market as well.

       

      Plan is a key investment in regional growth and Tunisian stability – the core goal is sustainable democracy.

      Schiff 11

       (, 6/16, Schiff Introduces Legislation to Bolster Egyptian and Tunisian Move Toward Democracy) Washington, DC – Today, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) introduced

      have introduced companion legislation in the Senate.

       

      Previous economic commitments are insufficient – the plan’s support is key – the public and government want the plan.

      Toeplitz – Politico – 3-10

      (Shira, “Kerry, McCain, Lieberman push funds for Egypt, Tunisia”, accessed online http://www.politico.com/blogs/glennthrush/0311/Kerry_McCain_Lieberman_push_funds_for_Egypt_Tunisia.html)

      Sens. John Kerry (D-Mass.), Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.)

       is for us to help them restore their economy.”

       

      Congress has approved distribution, but Obama needs to enact the funds.

      Bloomberg 1-13

      (“Year Later, US Can Nurture Arab Spring’s Economic Roots: View”, p. http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-13/year-later-u-s-must-nurture-arab-spring-uprising-s-economic-roots-view)

      Tunisians will mark the anniversary by commemorating

      to get the funds up and running.

       

      Scenario One: Growth

       

      Job growth is key variable in stabilizing transitions.

      Keith Crane, Steven Simon, & Jeffrey Martini 2011

      Future Challenges for the Arab World The Implications of Demographic and Economic Trends Prepared for the United States Air Force Rand Corporation

      No other economic issue is deemed

      pressure for political change.

       

      Economic growth is the key factor in sustaining democracy.

      Charles Landow, ‘11

       associate director of CFR’s Civil Society, Markets, and Democracy Initiative “The Economic Approach to Middle East Democracy”  http://blogs.cfr.org/coleman/2011/06/08/the-economic-approach-to-middle-east-democracy/?cid=soc-Twitter-in-Middle_East-060911

      As Egypt and Tunisia navigate

      seems clear that economic development helps democracy endure.

       

      That triggers Middle East war

      KUNA ’11

      (Kuwait news Agency, “Specter Of War Looming In Mideast, Says Israeli General” 9/5/11 http://www.eurasiareview.com/specter-of-war-looming-in-mideast-says-israeli-general-05092011/)

      Recent revolutions in the Arab world

       information about new Palestinian capabilities,” one of them said.

       

      High risk of nuclear escalation—multiple reasons.

      Russell ‘9

       James A. Spring  Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East managing editor of Strategic Insights, the quarterly ejournal published by the Center for Contemporary Conflict at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) in Monterey, California. He also serves as senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, where he is teaching courses on Middle East security affairs, terrorism, and national security strategy. From 1988-2001, Mr. Russell held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affair\ s, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense. www.nps.edu/academbvics/sigs/ccc/people/biolinks/.../PP26_Russell_2009.pdf

      Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined

      with substantial risk for the entire world.

       

      Nuclear winter causes extinction – newest models, scientific consensus

      Alan Robock 11, prof of environmental sciences at Rutgers, “Nuclear winter is a real and present danger”, Nature, Volume: 473, Pages: 275–276

      Yet the environmental threat of nuclear war

      by weeks in the mid-latitudes (see 'A decade of cooling).

       

       

       

      Scenario Two: AQIM

       

      AQIM is growing and looking to Tunisian instability as a way to leverage support – democratic transition is the best way to decrease extremism through North Africa

      Villarosa 11

      Shari Villarosa, Deputy Coordinator Regional Affairs, House Committee on Homeland Security, Subcommittee on Oversight, Investigations, and Management, 2011 (June 7, DENYING TERRORISTS SAFE HAVENS: EFFORTS TO COUNTER THREATS FROM PAKISTAN, YEMEN, AND SOMALIA, http://www.uspolicy.be/headline/denying-terrorists-safe-havens-efforts-counter-threats-pakistan-yemen-and-somalia)

      Before I talk about Somalia, I’d like to talk about West Africa

       of containing and marginalizing AQIM.

       

      Economic growth is key to ensure AQ does not increase its power

      Potomac Institute for Policy Studies 9

      Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, 2009 (March 31, WHY THE MAGHREB MATTERS: THREATS, OPPORTUNITIES, AND OPTIONS FOR EFFECTIVE AMERICAN ENGAGEMENT IN NORTH AFRICA, http://www.potomacinstitute.org/images/studies/NorthAfricaPolicyPaper033109.pdf)

      Another cluster of needs is for regional stability

      terrorist attacks would be the likely result.

       

      Addressing terrorism in the Maghreb depends upon US support for the region, – failure means we remain hostages and targets of terrorism for the next century

      Potomac Institute for Policy Studies 11

      Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, 2011 (January, 2011 Report Update The Consequences of Terrorism—An Update on al-Qaeda and other Terrorist Threats in the Sahel & Maghreb, http://www.potomacinstitute.org/attachments/863_2011%20REPORT%20UPDATE%20Maghreb%20%20Sahel%20Terrorism.pdf)

      In sum, coherent and firm US policy

       terrorists for the remainder of the 21st century.

       

      Extinction

      Alexander 3

      (Yonah Alexander, Prof and Director of Inter-University for Terrorism Studies, 2003 (August 27, Terrorism Myths and Realities, Washington Times, )

      Last week's brutal suicide bombings

      national, regional and global security concerns.

       

      Contention 2 – Smart Power

       

      FIRST _ US economic commitment to Tunisia is key to send a signal of US involvement in the region

      Hamid 11

      Shadi Hamid, Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center, 2011 (April 26, The Struggle for Middle East Democracy, http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2011/0426_middle_east_hamid.aspx)

      The revolutions are far from complete.

      and made an already explosive situation even worse.

       

      SECOND - Failure in Tunisia undermines US leadership

      Carpenter 11

      J. Scott Carpenter, Keston family fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2011 (February 24, Help Tunisia First, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/24/help_tunisia_first?page=full)

      The U.S. government should

      reassure their Tunisian counterparts of American support

       

      Credibility is key to a transition to smart power

      Armitage and Nye 2007 –

      Richard L, Deputy Secretary of State from 2001 to 2005 and Joseph S., former assistant secretary of defense, teaches political science at Harvard, they co-chaired the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Commission on Smart Power (Time for Smart Power, Beifer Center at Harvard, )

      The world is dissatisfied with American leadership

      tackle tough global challenges. We call this smart power.

       

      Solves every transnational threat – extinction

      Ikenberry, 11

      [spring, A World of Our Making G. John Ikenberry is the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton, http://www.democracyjournal.org/20/a-world-of-our-making.php?page=all]

      Grand Strategy as Liberal Order Building American dominance

       it can begin the process of gaining it back.

       

      No risk of their heg bad turns---US engagement and reintervention are inevitable---it’s only a question of making it effective---the plan prevents failed engagement that triggers their turns

      Kagan 11 (Robert, contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution. "The Price of Power" Jan 24 Vol 16 No18 , AD: 11/5/11)

      In theory, the United States could refrain from intervening abroad.

      international system that American power has built and defended.

       

      Contention 3 – Method of Evaluation

       

      Any risk of extinction outweighs everything

      Bostrom, editor of the book their Yudkowsky card comes from professor of philosophy at Oxford,  July 2005

      (Nick, Transcribed from by Packer, 4:38-6:12 of the talk at , accessed 10/20/07)

      Now if we think about what just

       if we went extinct it should still be a high priority.

       

      Yes value to life – Our status as beings inheres an affirmation of life in the face of extinction and nonbeing.

      Richard J Bernstein, Vera List Prof. Phil. New School for Social Research, 2002, “Radical Evil: A Philosophical Interrogation”, p. 188-192

      Still, we might ask how Jonas's "existential" interpretation

      can become its destroyer as well.

       

      Focus on proximate causes not root causes – causality can only be determined in specific instances not in the abstract – history proves you can’t manipulate root causes.

      Fred Hutchison, CPA and MBA, Staff writer for Renew America, 3-22-2004, “American innovation and the culture war: A golden age of American innovation,” http://www.renewamerica.us/columns/hutchison/040322

      Reductionist ideas reduce (hu)man(s)

      zombies or maniacs — and return to adolescence.

       

      Dynamic models and general predictions mean experts have a good grasp on what will happen in the Arab spring

      Jack Goldstone, prof of public policy at George Mason, November 2011, “Waiting for the Revolutions,”, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/11/waiting_for_the_revolutions

      Blake Hounshell is right ("Dark Crystal," July/August 2011) that "experts,"

      the first onset of events, our analysis was still helpful in other respects.

       

      Our scholarship is accurate – critical scholarship suffers from selection bias.

      Josh Teitelbaum and Meir Litvak, senior fellows and profs @ Tel Aviv, March 2006, “Students, Teachers, and Edward Said,” MERIA, 10.1

      The critics did not deny that Western culture and

      had become quite rich and multi- faceted over the years.

       

      Imperfect knowledge is a reason to err towards saving life

      Cowen 4 (Tyler, Professor of Economics – George Mason University, “The Epistemic Problem Does Not Refute Consequentialism”, 11-2, http://www.gmu.edu/jbc/Tyler/Epistemic2.pdf, p. 14-1       

      The epistemic critique relies heavily on

      large upfront benefits of obvious importance.

       

      Academic debate over policy issues like the response to the Arab Spring is critical to improve policymaking--- critical perspectives cedes the political

      Walt ‘11 [Stephen M. Walt, Professor of International Affairs at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, July 21, 2011, “International Affairs and the Public Sphere,” http://publicsphere.ssrc.org/walt-international-affairs-and-the-public-sphere/]

      Academics can make at least three distinct contributions

      the scholars who produce it might wish.

       




03/23/12
  • CEDA RD 3 - 1AC

    • Tournament: CEDA | Round: 3 | Opponent: EMORY CM | Judge:

    • Plan

       

      The United States Federal Government should substantially increase technical assistance for democratic reconciliation reforms between the Syrian government and opposition groups.

       

      Adv 1 US Russian Relations

       

      Refusal for engagement with dialogue is straining US / RUSSIA relations

      Daily Star 2.9 (Read more: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Feb-09/162718-us-rejects-russias-call-for-syria-dialogue.ashx#ixzz1mlbK90Md 
       The Daily Star :: Lebanon News :: http://www.dailystar.com.lb)
       

      The White House on Wednesday rejected Russia's

      yet how such a mission should work

       

      Supporting reconciliation is key

      Anishchuk 2/8 (“Results of Syria talks must not be set in advance: Russia”, Chicago Tribune, http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-syria-russiatre8171gu-20120208,0,3927540.story, Alexei) The outcome of any talks on ending the bloodshed

      January plan that called for him to cede power.

       

       

      Visible success spills over – solves alt causes – accommodation enough to provide relations momentum.

      Graham ‘9

      Thomas Graham served as special assistant to the president and senior director for Russia on the National Security Council staff, 2004–07Resurgent Russia and U.S. Purposes http://tcf.org/events/pdfs/ev257/Graham.pdf

      Nothing in Russia’s understanding ‘

       can be addressed calmly in a search for common ground.

       

       

      That checks multiple scenarios for extinction.

      Graham ‘9

      (Thomas Graham served as special assistant to the president and senior director for Russia on the National Security Council staff, 2004–07Resurgent Russia and U.S. Purposes http://tcf.org/events/pdfs/ev257/Graham.pdf)

      The challenges facing the United States are well

       using traditional fuels more efficiently, and managing climate change.

       

      Russian cooperation prevents miscalc.

      Cirincione ‘7

      (Joseph, Director for Non-Proliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace , “Nuclear Summer,” 7/23/11, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/07/nuclear_summer.html/print.html, accessed 6/26/11)

      With Russian early-

       and scorn any further negotiated nuclear reductions.

       

      Miscalc equals Extinction.

      PR NEWSWIRE 98

      [“NEJM STUDY WARNS OF INCREASING RISK OF ACCIDENTAL NUCLEAR ATTACK; OVER 6.8 MILLION IMMEDIATE U.S. DEATHS POSSIBLE,” APR 29, LN]

      Despite the end of the Cold War,

       nuclear war with billions of casualties worldwide.

       

      Super Terrorism causes extinction

      Alexander 3

      (Yonah Alexander, Prof and Director of Inter-University for Terrorism Studies, 2003 (August 27, Terrorism Myths and Realities, Washington Times, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2003/aug/27/20030827-084256-8999r/?page=all)

      Last week's brutal suicide bombings in Baghdad

      implications concerning national, regional and global security concerns.

       

      Disease spread causes extinction

      Singer, 01(Clifford E. Singer, Director of the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security at the University of Illinois at Urbana – Champaign, Professor of nuclear engineering @ University of Illinois at Urbana – Champaign, "Will Mankind Survive the Millennium?," The Bulletin of the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Volume XIII / Number 1 / Spring 2001 pg.  http://www.acdis.uiuc.edu /research/S&Ps/2001-Sp/S&P _XIII/Singer.htm)

      There are, however, two

      when and if this is achieved.

       

      Warming causes extinction

      Deibel 7 – Terry L. Deibel, Professor of National Strategy at the National War College, 2007, Foreign Affairs Strategy: Logic for American Statecraft, p. 387-389

      Finally, there is one major existential threat

      to the continued existence of life on this planet.

       

      Prolif causes extinction

      /\*Victor Utgoff, Deputy Director of the Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division of the Institute for Defense Analyses, May 2002, “Survival”, p. Ingenta

      Second, as the world approaches

      manufacturing and storage activities.

       

      Adv 2 Russia China Alliance

       

      US refusal to encourage dialogue will cause A STRONGER Russia China Alliance

      Ching 2/17 (Frank, China may have to pay a price for being more assertive, 2012, http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/views/story/0,4574,478190,00.html 

      BEIJING'S veto, along with that of Moscow,

       difficult to fashion a fig leaf to hide behind.

       

      Several Scenarios for World War

       

      FIRST – Britain instigation

       

      US opposition to Russia and China is justifying Britain’s attempt to start world war 3

      Steinberg 2/10 (Jeffrey and Michelle http://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/TPV3/Voices.php/2012/02/10/brits-obama-push-world-war-against-russi)

      If there were any doubt that

      out a monetary hyperinflation beyond Weimar Germany's Autumn 1923 blowout.

       

      Second Space Wars -

       

      Russia and China are cooperating on aeronautics ventures now

      Karnozov 2/14 (http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/singapore-air-show/2012-02-14/putin-presses-sino-russian-widebody-alliance, Vladimir, Putin Presses for Sino-Russian Widebody Alliance)

      Speaking to the Chinese media

      each able to carry 128,000 pounds of cargo.

       

      China’s Space Program is at a crossroads, not sure if aligning with Russia or seeking cooperation – they have tons of money are increasing militarization now – can be reversed – key to getting off the rock

      Teitel 9/29 (http://motherboard.vice.com/2011/9/29/a-new-space-race-what-china-s-tiangong-1-launch-means-for-nasa, 2011, Amy, A New Space Race? What China's Tiangong 1 Launch Means for NASA)

      China has launched Tiangong 1,

      Chinese Space Program undertake a joint mission.

       

      Status quo arms race perpetuates ensures miscalculation through reactionary policies

      MacDonald, Council on Foreign Relations, ‘8

      (“China, space weapons, and U.S. security” By Bruce W. MacDonald, Council on Foreign Relations, 2008, http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=lang_en&id=o0GkabrNftIC&oi=fnd&pg=PP2&dq=china+space&ots=OTkniE7uA-&sig=wC4ye20QpZY-ECCnrpPTf-Tr9yY#v=onepage&q&f=false, p. 3, 6.30.10, SWolff)

      In a number of fora and military writings,

      and China worse off than if neither went down this path.

       

      ***Animosity with Russia and China in space makes a space war inevitable

      MacDonald, Council on Foreign Relations, ‘8

      (“China, space weapons, and U.S. security” By Bruce W. MacDonald, Council on Foreign Relations, 2008, http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=lang_en&id=o0GkabrNftIC&oi=fnd&pg=PP2&dq=china+space&ots=OTkniE7uA-&sig=wC4ye20QpZY-ECCnrpPTf-Tr9yY#v=onepage&q&f=false, p. 3, 6.30.10, SWolff)

      While China represents the most

      and service benefits that U.S. military space assets provide.

       

      Only joint cooperation by the US / CHINA / and RUSSIA  in Syria can prevent solar storms and asteroids from causing extinction

      Denniston 11/25 (2011, As World War Threatens, Russia Proposes 'SDE', Nicholas, EXECUTIVE INTELLIGENCE REVIEW)

      During the LaRouche PAC Weekly Report of Oct. 19, 2011, Lyndon

      and Power Alliance) and the Bering Strait rail tunnel connection

       

      Third – Pacific Hegemony

       

      US position on Syria has caused the Russia China alliance to grow stronger – this undermines US hegemony in the Pacific

       

      Manthorp 2/7 (Why Beijing backed Moscow on the Syria veto, THE WINDSOR STAR, Johnathan, http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Beijing+backed+Moscow+Syria+veto/6116935/story.html#ixzz1mlsuqYHV)

      China’s backing for Russia on the Syria vote

      world issues will begin to shift,” said the article.

       

      Maintaining the unipolar moment is vital to preventing global nuclear conflicts

      Kagan 7

      (Robert, Senior Associate – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “End of Dreams, Return of History,” 7/19, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/07/end_of_dreams_return_of_histor.html) DMZ

      The jostling for status and influence among these ambitious nations

      or withdraws from its positions of regional dominance.

       

      Primacy is structurally sustainable

      Thayer 7

      Bradley Thayer, 2007, Professor of Defense and Strategic Studies – Missouri State, “American Empire: A Debate”, p. 24-25

      Thus, the economy is well placed to be

      the economic foundation of the American empire is sound for the projected future.

       

      Fourth – NATO

       

      Russia US cooperation that involves China is critical to prevent a hardening alliance that collapses Russia Nato Cooperation and decreases dependence on the dollar

      Zevelev 10/10 (Igor, The China factor in Russian-American relations,2011, http://valdaiclub.com/asia/32800.html, Director of the Russian Office at the John D. and Catherine T.  MacArthur Foundation.)

      The increased global competition between

      or at least give the BRICS countries much more leverage in world finances.

       

      That solves your disads – integrating Russia into NATO allows for NATO to stop global conflict escalation and proliferation

      ORENSTEIN 2 (Mitchell, Editor of Russia Watch Special Edition, Russia Watch, April)

      Events since September 11 show clearly

      The promise of this NATO of the future is great—and greater than many have imagined.

       

      Exclusion from NATO causes Arctic conflicts

      Lisken, Alexander, Staff Writer for Ria Novosti, A Leading Russian News Source, 09

      (“ U.S. analyst says NATO-Russia Council ideal for Arctic talks”, http://en.rian.ru/world/20090527/155103313.html)

      MOSCOW, May 27 (RIA Novosti) - A leading U.S. analyst has said

      Monday's announcement of a nuclear test by North Korea.

       

      Left unchecked, these disputes lead to a US-Russia war

      Zellen, 07- Barry, Security Innovator, “The Polar Show Down: As the Arctic's ice begins to melt, a new race for its undersea resources begins” August 23, 2007 http://securityinnovator.com/index.php?articleID=12387&sectionID=43

      In response to Russia’s aggressive assertion

      and gas are depleted over the next 20 years.”

       

      Poor Russian NATO relations cause instability in Europe

      Commission on U.S. Policy toward Russia 09- a joint project of The Nixon Center and the Belfer Center for Science and

      International Affairs at Harvard University; “The Right Direction for U.S. Policy toward Russia” March, 2009; http://www.nixoncenter.org/RussiaReport09.pdf

      The potential collapse of

      and the European Union to make specific proposals.

       

      European instability causes nuclear war

      Khalilzad 95; Zalmay RAND, The Washington Quarterly, Spring 1995, p. Lexis

      With the shifting balance of power among Japan,

      more catastrophic than the last.

       




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