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The United States Federal Government should substantially increase its technical assistance, strategic advice and support to private entrepreneurs as well as small and medium-sized businesses in Tunisia.
Contention 1 - Economy
Tunisia’s economy is on the brink – the growth rate is zero – foreign direct investment is decreasing.
2-15
(Amine, program director of the Al-Kawakibi Democracy Transition Center, “Tunisia works to halt a downward economic spiral,” 2012, )
However, the only way this momentum
country’s economic downturn.
Unemployment is soaring – demonstrations are happening now – job creation is key.
Lamboley – All Africa News – 3-22
(Carolyn, “Tunisia: Unemployed Graduates Take to the Streets Across the Country”, p. http://allafrica.com/stories/201203221395.html)
Yesterday, educated unemployed youth demonstrated
and would take to the streets of the capital on April 7.
The root of the Arab spring was mercantilist economic policy – turning away from global markets is the problem, not contradictions in market logic– no alternative to economic prosperity but international investment.
Schuman ‘11
Michael Why the Arab Spring's success depends on jobs, not guns, 8/11, http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/08/22/why-the-arab-spring%e2%80%99s-success-depends-on-jobs-not-guns/#ixzz1Vn36NoHY
The roots of the Arab Spring are planted in
that might well be through economic progress – through jobs, not guns.
Current U.S. policies don’t create jobs—equity for small and medium businesses are the missing factor.
Whiton, Harrison & Szrom 2011
CHRISTIAN WHITON U.S. State Department official from 2003-2009, special advisor to the Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs,. KRISTOFER HARRISON senior managing director for a leading provider of macro-economic policy intelligence to hedge funds, investment banks and asset managers. CHARLIE SZROM Senior Analyst Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, Feb. 2011 FIXING FOREIGN AID: THE MISSING MIDDLE Expanding Middle Classes in Muslim-Majority Countries through Private Enterprise Development Hamilton Foundation
Shifting the Focus to the Middle Class—and SMEs Although the U.S. government
where it is not present in large quantities.
US needs to act now to show support for Tunisians and provide a stable investment climate – they will say yes
Stephen McInerney 11
(Briefing :: Elections and Political Transition in Tunisia Executive Director, Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED) Date: Thursday, October 13, 2011 )
One thing that I think is important is
working in different ways to provide assistance for Tunisia
Successful US investment in Tunisia is key to investment throughout the Middle East
DOS 11
(Tunisia Partnerships Forum: Tunisian Priorities. American Investments. Fact Sheet The Global Partnership Initiative Washington, DC November 7, 2011, )
A number of indicators exist to make
would serve the American market as well.
Plan is a key investment in regional growth and Tunisian stability – the core goal is sustainable democracy.
Schiff 11
(, 6/16, Schiff Introduces Legislation to Bolster Egyptian and Tunisian Move Toward Democracy) Washington, DC – Today, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) introduced
have introduced companion legislation in the Senate.
Previous economic commitments are insufficient – the plan’s support is key – the public and government want the plan.
Toeplitz – Politico – 3-10
(Shira, “Kerry, McCain, Lieberman push funds for Egypt, Tunisia”, accessed online http://www.politico.com/blogs/glennthrush/0311/Kerry_McCain_Lieberman_push_funds_for_Egypt_Tunisia.html)
Sens. John Kerry (D-Mass.), Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.)
is for us to help them restore their economy.”
Congress has approved distribution, but Obama needs to enact the funds.
Bloomberg 1-13
(“Year Later, US Can Nurture Arab Spring’s Economic Roots: View”, p. http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-13/year-later-u-s-must-nurture-arab-spring-uprising-s-economic-roots-view)
Tunisians will mark the anniversary by commemorating
to get the funds up and running.
Scenario One: Growth
Job growth is key variable in stabilizing transitions.
Keith Crane, Steven Simon, & Jeffrey Martini 2011
Future Challenges for the Arab World The Implications of Demographic and Economic Trends Prepared for the United States Air Force Rand Corporation
No other economic issue is deemed
pressure for political change.
Economic growth is the key factor in sustaining democracy.
Charles Landow, ‘11
associate director of CFR’s Civil Society, Markets, and Democracy Initiative “The Economic Approach to Middle East Democracy” http://blogs.cfr.org/coleman/2011/06/08/the-economic-approach-to-middle-east-democracy/?cid=soc-Twitter-in-Middle_East-060911
As Egypt and Tunisia navigate
seems clear that economic development helps democracy endure.
That triggers Middle East war
KUNA ’11
(Kuwait news Agency, “Specter Of War Looming In Mideast, Says Israeli General” 9/5/11 http://www.eurasiareview.com/specter-of-war-looming-in-mideast-says-israeli-general-05092011/)
Recent revolutions in the Arab world
information about new Palestinian capabilities,” one of them said.
High risk of nuclear escalation—multiple reasons.
Russell ‘9
James A. Spring Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East managing editor of Strategic Insights, the quarterly ejournal published by the Center for Contemporary Conflict at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) in Monterey, California. He also serves as senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, where he is teaching courses on Middle East security affairs, terrorism, and national security strategy. From 1988-2001, Mr. Russell held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affair\ s, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense. www.nps.edu/academbvics/sigs/ccc/people/biolinks/.../PP26_Russell_2009.pdf
Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined
with substantial risk for the entire world.
Nuclear winter causes extinction – newest models, scientific consensus
Alan Robock 11, prof of environmental sciences at Rutgers, “Nuclear winter is a real and present danger”, Nature, Volume: 473, Pages: 275–276
Yet the environmental threat of nuclear war
by weeks in the mid-latitudes (see 'A decade of cooling).
Scenario Two: AQIM
AQIM is growing and looking to Tunisian instability as a way to leverage support – democratic transition is the best way to decrease extremism through North Africa
Villarosa 11
Shari Villarosa, Deputy Coordinator Regional Affairs, House Committee on Homeland Security, Subcommittee on Oversight, Investigations, and Management, 2011 (June 7, DENYING TERRORISTS SAFE HAVENS: EFFORTS TO COUNTER THREATS FROM PAKISTAN, YEMEN, AND SOMALIA, http://www.uspolicy.be/headline/denying-terrorists-safe-havens-efforts-counter-threats-pakistan-yemen-and-somalia)
Before I talk about Somalia, I’d like to talk about West Africa
of containing and marginalizing AQIM.
Economic growth is key to ensure AQ does not increase its power
Potomac Institute for Policy Studies 9
Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, 2009 (March 31, WHY THE MAGHREB MATTERS: THREATS, OPPORTUNITIES, AND OPTIONS FOR EFFECTIVE AMERICAN ENGAGEMENT IN NORTH AFRICA, http://www.potomacinstitute.org/images/studies/NorthAfricaPolicyPaper033109.pdf)
Another cluster of needs is for regional stability
terrorist attacks would be the likely result.
Addressing terrorism in the Maghreb depends upon US support for the region, – failure means we remain hostages and targets of terrorism for the next century
Potomac Institute for Policy Studies 11
Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, 2011 (January, 2011 Report Update The Consequences of Terrorism—An Update on al-Qaeda and other Terrorist Threats in the Sahel & Maghreb, http://www.potomacinstitute.org/attachments/863_2011%20REPORT%20UPDATE%20Maghreb%20%20Sahel%20Terrorism.pdf)
In sum, a coherent and firm US policy
terrorists for the remainder of the 21st century.
Extinction
Alexander 3
(Yonah Alexander, Prof and Director of Inter-University for Terrorism Studies, 2003 (August 27, Terrorism Myths and Realities, Washington Times, )
Last week's brutal suicide bombings
national, regional and global security concerns.
Contention 2 – Smart Power
FIRST _ US economic commitment to Tunisia is key to send a signal of US involvement in the region
Hamid 11
Shadi Hamid, Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center, 2011 (April 26, The Struggle for Middle East Democracy, http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2011/0426_middle_east_hamid.aspx)
The revolutions are far from complete.
and made an already explosive situation even worse.
SECOND - Failure in Tunisia undermines US leadership
Carpenter 11
J. Scott Carpenter, Keston family fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2011 (February 24, Help Tunisia First, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/24/help_tunisia_first?page=full)
The U.S. government should
reassure their Tunisian counterparts of American support
Credibility is key to a transition to smart power
Armitage and Nye 2007 –
Richard L, Deputy Secretary of State from 2001 to 2005 and Joseph S., former assistant secretary of defense, teaches political science at Harvard, they co-chaired the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Commission on Smart Power (Time for Smart Power, Beifer Center at Harvard, )
The world is dissatisfied with American leadership
tackle tough global challenges. We call this smart power.
Solves every transnational threat – extinction
Ikenberry, 11
[spring, A World of Our Making G. John Ikenberry is the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton, http://www.democracyjournal.org/20/a-world-of-our-making.php?page=all]
Grand Strategy as Liberal Order Building American dominance
it can begin the process of gaining it back.
No risk of their heg bad turns---US engagement and reintervention are inevitable---it’s only a question of making it effective---the plan prevents failed engagement that triggers their turns
Kagan 11 (Robert, contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution. "The Price of Power" Jan 24 Vol 16 No18 , AD: 11/5/11)
In theory, the United States could refrain from intervening abroad.
international system that American power has built and defended.
Contention 3 – Method of Evaluation
Any risk of extinction outweighs everything
Bostrom, editor of the book their Yudkowsky card comes from professor of philosophy at Oxford, July 2005
(Nick, Transcribed from by Packer, 4:38-6:12 of the talk at , accessed 10/20/07)
Now if we think about what just
if we went extinct it should still be a high priority.
Yes value to life – Our status as beings inheres an affirmation of life in the face of extinction and nonbeing.
Richard J Bernstein, Vera List Prof. Phil. New School for Social Research, 2002, “Radical Evil: A Philosophical Interrogation”, p. 188-192
Still, we might ask how Jonas's "existential" interpretation
can become its destroyer as well.
Focus on proximate causes not root causes – causality can only be determined in specific instances not in the abstract – history proves you can’t manipulate root causes.
Fred Hutchison, CPA and MBA, Staff writer for Renew America, 3-22-2004, “American innovation and the culture war: A golden age of American innovation,” http://www.renewamerica.us/columns/hutchison/040322
Reductionist ideas reduce (hu)man(s)
zombies or maniacs — and return to adolescence.
Dynamic models and general predictions mean experts have a good grasp on what will happen in the Arab spring
Jack Goldstone, prof of public policy at George Mason, November 2011, “Waiting for the Revolutions,”, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/11/waiting_for_the_revolutions
Blake Hounshell is right ("Dark Crystal," July/August 2011) that "experts,"
the first onset of events, our analysis was still helpful in other respects.
Our scholarship is accurate – critical scholarship suffers from selection bias.
Josh Teitelbaum and Meir Litvak, senior fellows and profs @ Tel Aviv, March 2006, “Students, Teachers, and Edward Said,” MERIA, 10.1
The critics did not deny that Western culture and
had become quite rich and multi- faceted over the years.
Imperfect knowledge is a reason to err towards saving life
Cowen 4 (Tyler, Professor of Economics – George Mason University, “The Epistemic Problem Does Not Refute Consequentialism”, 11-2, http://www.gmu.edu/jbc/Tyler/Epistemic2.pdf, p. 14-1
The epistemic critique relies heavily on
large upfront benefits of obvious importance.
Academic debate over policy issues like the response to the Arab Spring is critical to improve policymaking--- critical perspectives cedes the political
Walt ‘11 [Stephen M. Walt, Professor of International Affairs at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, July 21, 2011, “International Affairs and the Public Sphere,” http://publicsphere.ssrc.org/walt-international-affairs-and-the-public-sphere/]
Academics can make at least three distinct contributions
the scholars who produce it might wish.
